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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How GE2019 is being treated on the front pages

SystemSystem Posts: 12,127
edited October 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How GE2019 is being treated on the front pages

Here are some of today’s front pages and I don’t think there is anything as memorable as the Daily Mail at the same time in the process in 2017.  There is much less Tory triumphalism.  Its front page today is perhaps the most overtly political and highlights the twin worries for the Tories from the  Lib Dems and the Brexit party which both threaten Johnson’s party in different ways.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    edited October 2019
    1st like Jezza
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    2nd like Tories
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    3rd like the SNP
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    A poor 4th like Tory Swinson
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Wow, so our political turkeys finally decided to vote for Christmas! Finally this wretched and indecisive Parliament gets put out of its misery. Good luck to those standing again, they’ll be needing it,
  • Interesting The Sun endorses Boris immediately and without precondition. The lack of even a few day's build up is I think a sign of jitters. The Sun and The Express also show the risks Brexiters are taking. They are framing an election that will create a chronologically superior mandate to the referendum as a de facto second referendum. Which is fine if Johnson wins. But if he doesn't ? Will arguing from the 2016 referendum result in 2020 if there have been two inconclusive GE in the meantime really wash ?

    Meanwhile we've had the first outing for Labour's response to " Get Brexit done ". " Get Brexit sorted ".

    While it errs towards being too clever by half " Get Brexit sorted " is a decent attempt at damage control. People can project what they want onto " sorted " and it sounds so similar to " done " it neutralises the Tory line.

    On thing on the radar is the CWU hint they'll use their 97% strike vote to disrupt postal vote deliveries. A rare example of actual impact from a postal strike.

    Conventional wisdom says that's a disaster for Labour as Corbyn will back the strikers to the hilt and heaps of undelivered Christmas post will feed every Tory attack line about what a Corbyn government will be like.

    But I wonder if we are so far into a new frame that Labour will actively put a ' Strike week ' into their Grid. Frame strike action to an electorate not old enough to remember the 1970s as about austerity, privatision and the banking crash not union power. It would also change the subject from Brexit which suits Labour. One to watch.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Lib Dems bid for up to 200 seats as it seeks to be leading party for Remain voters"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/29/libdems-bid-200-seats-seeks-leading-party-remain-voters/
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Interestingly The Mail has a dig at the Brexit Party.

    I think that Nigel is the big loser here, he climbed in the polls when May was PM because it was manifestly obvious she wasn't a Brexiter.

    Boris was on the winning side in 2016, and has pushed hard enough to leave that he'll scoop back a lot of the soft BXP vote. Head bangers will bang heads for ever obvs.

    Although absolutely any outcome is possible, it's going to be great to watch
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,890
    AndyJS said:

    "Lib Dems bid for up to 200 seats as it seeks to be leading party for Remain voters"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/29/libdems-bid-200-seats-seeks-leading-party-remain-voters/

    200 seats Chuka.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,214
    Sorry Brenda from Bristol, but I'm excited about this. Feels like the most important election of my lifetime.

    Working title: Boris, Brexit and the Break-up of Britain.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    rkrkrk said:

    Sorry Brenda from Bristol, but I'm excited about this. Feels like the most important election of my lifetime.

    Working title: Boris, Brexit and the Break-up of Britain.

    Turnout could be more than 70% for the first time since 1997. It was 68.8% in 2017.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    I guess the fronts are not quite as bad as I'd feared they might be. Are the tabloids as influential now as in 1992 when it was The Sun Wot Won It? Who knows. I do think the relentless drip drip feed takes its toll. For those of us not of a right-wing tub thumping persuasion, it's quite depressing.

    Re. ASJOhnson below, I think it's far too soon to say Nigel Farage and BXP are the big losers. I sense Nige is sharpening his quill and preparing to launch a blistering attack on the Tories. Two things have pushed this to the fore. The first is that Farage is genuinely unimpressed by the Boris deal. The second is yesterday's readmittance to the party of the europhiles (as Farage tweeted it). This more than anything is going to incense the BXP - and they will use it as ammunition. They will point out that it's very likely that the europhiles will, once again, after the election hold the Commons to ransom.

    So the BXP will go for No Deal Brexit and the moment October 31st passes and we're constantly fed the reminders of Johnson's ludicrous promises and those of his fanatical supporters ... the Brexit Party will rise and rise and rise.

    I suspect they will poll over 15% I think the result may be close to 20% in the final vote.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    I really do hope Labour get pounded like a dockside hooker. Corbyn deserves to lose really big. His policies would be disastrous for the UK, its going to be tough enough after Brexit. We don't need to pour oil on troubled waters.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    1st like Jezza

    first to admit the election is lost more like.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    edited October 2019

    I really do hope Labour get pounded like a dockside hooker. Corbyn deserves to lose really big. His policies would be disastrous for the UK, its going to be tough enough after Brexit. We don't need to pour oil on troubled waters.

    Oil on troubled waters calms things down. I think you mean, ‘pour petrol on the fire.’

    Admittedly, Corbyn in Downing Street would be the equivalent of cleaning up an earthquake zone by nuking it.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    The real fun and games don't begin now, of course. They begin on Friday 13th of December, when the Tories fall just short of a majority and it quickly becomes apparent that forming a viable Government is impossible.

    Nobody will work with the Conservatives, and a badly weakened Labour will be hit with unacceptable and/or contradictory demands (I'm especially looking forward to the part where the SNP demands Indyref2 and the Lib Dems veto that idea, and block Corbyn as Prime Minister for good measure.) About the only thing the Remain Alliance will be able to agree on will be the necessity to revoke A50 in panic when we get to late January and the EU27 refuse yet another extension.

    Where this leaves us come the March 2020 General Election, who can say?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690
    If you’re Farage and you want Brexit done, what’s your best play?

    If you believe that BXP is now mainly a repository for Labour / Brexit voters that won’t ever countenance voting Tory, then I reckon your best play is to put some distance between your own party and Boris, so as not to scare them back into Corbyn’s arms.

    Farage must surely know that this “let’s have an alliance for a REAL Brexit” is a nonsense that will never happen now Boris is so publicly wedded to his deal. And if thinking rationally he must also realise that if he prevents Boris getting a majority, it’s highly unlikely it will be because a block of BXP MPs hold the balance of power, and more likely because his votes increased the seat count of the Lib Dem’s and Labour.

    So either he genuinely thinks this deal isn’t Brexit (which would be bizarre but he is an odd fish), he doesn’t care about Brexit and only his own career (possible but also bizarre as killing Brexit would be self defeating, unless he really fancies himself to win a second election later in the year). Or we’re seeing a last petulant outburst against Cummings before he pulls back the attack dogs in key Con marginals, while keeping up the anti Boris pretence in some key LAB seats.

    BXP won’t get to double figures % in vote share. Most will see their job was done at the Euros in bringing May‘s time to an end.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    I really do hope Labour get pounded like a dockside hooker. Corbyn deserves to lose really big. His policies would be disastrous for the UK, its going to be tough enough after Brexit. We don't need to pour oil on troubled waters.

    And on the other side we have a CoE who claims that a deal which will cost us £70 billion is manifestly in the country’s interests.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    I really do hope Labour get pounded like a dockside hooker. Corbyn deserves to lose really big. His policies would be disastrous for the UK, its going to be tough enough after Brexit. We don't need to pour oil on troubled waters.

    It would be nice to think we could be rid of the threat of Corbynite Labour. Actually, it would be even better to see the Labour Party destroyed and the Lib Dems take their place as a major party.

    Not going to happen though. Far, far too many ultra-safe seats and robot voters. IMHO the current polls are substantially understating their support. On balance, I still think it likely that Labour will go backwards in this election, but I doubt it'll be even as bad as Foot in 1983 and probably a little bit better: it'll weaken them but there will be no knockout blow, sad to say.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    AndyJS said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sorry Brenda from Bristol, but I'm excited about this. Feels like the most important election of my lifetime.

    Working title: Boris, Brexit and the Break-up of Britain.

    Turnout could be more than 70% for the first time since 1997. It was 68.8% in 2017.
    I find no sense of enthusiasm, just weariness and apathy. I think we will see a low turnout.

    I do rather hope that we see a repeat of these DM covers, except BoZo getting the push.

    https://twitter.com/p_surridge/status/1189313610809561090?s=19
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    edited October 2019
    Good news for Jo Swinson. 'The Office of Somewhere or Other' have just announced that leaving the EU with Johnson's deal will cost £70 billion and the BBC Today prog led the news with it. I didn't catch whether this was every year but I imagine it is. All we got as rebuttal was the ever more insipid Jvis saying we would do very well when we're outside.

    Accordig to my calculations that's 70 brand new fully equiped hospitals. I feel a BIG RED BUS coming on.....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    moonshine said:

    If you’re Farage and you want Brexit done, what’s your best play?

    If you believe that BXP is now mainly a repository for Labour / Brexit voters that won’t ever countenance voting Tory, then I reckon your best play is to put some distance between your own party and Boris, so as not to scare them back into Corbyn’s arms.

    Farage must surely know that this “let’s have an alliance for a REAL Brexit” is a nonsense that will never happen now Boris is so publicly wedded to his deal. And if thinking rationally he must also realise that if he prevents Boris getting a majority, it’s highly unlikely it will be because a block of BXP MPs hold the balance of power, and more likely because his votes increased the seat count of the Lib Dem’s and Labour.

    So either he genuinely thinks this deal isn’t Brexit (which would be bizarre but he is an odd fish), he doesn’t care about Brexit and only his own career (possible but also bizarre as killing Brexit would be self defeating, unless he really fancies himself to win a second election later in the year). Or we’re seeing a last petulant outburst against Cummings before he pulls back the attack dogs in key Con marginals, while keeping up the anti Boris pretence in some key LAB seats.

    BXP won’t get to double figures % in vote share. Most will see their job was done at the Euros in bringing May‘s time to an end.

    You’re making the assumption that Farage wants Brexit done. Many of us are not sure that he does.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Corbyn as the Grinch is inspired, worth having a Christmas election just for that gag.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    I really do hope Labour get pounded like a dockside hooker. Corbyn deserves to lose really big. His policies would be disastrous for the UK, its going to be tough enough after Brexit. We don't need to pour oil on troubled waters.

    And on the other side we have a CoE who claims that a deal which will cost us £70 billion is manifestly in the country’s interests.
    was it the 364 economists who worked out that figure? I don't believe any political figures, they are nearly always lies, just like spending an extra 350 million every week on the NHS.

    I am a remainer, but we have to leave, we just have to get out to follow the result of the referendum, and when these loons leading all the parties have left office Parliament, we can work our way back in with saner hands.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Roger said:

    Good news for Jo Swinson. 'The Office of Somewhere or Other' have just announced that leaving the EU with Johnson's deal will cost £70 billion and the BBC Today prog led the news with it. I didn't catch whether this was every year but I imagine it is. All we got as rebuttal was the ever more insipid Jvis saying we would do very well when we're outside.

    Accordig to my calculations that's 70 brand new fully equiped hospitals. I feel a BIG RED BUS coming on.....

    I think it was by 2029, but I may be mistaken.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    I really do hope Labour get pounded like a dockside hooker. Corbyn deserves to lose really big. His policies would be disastrous for the UK, its going to be tough enough after Brexit. We don't need to pour oil on troubled waters.

    It would be nice to think we could be rid of the threat of Corbynite Labour. Actually, it would be even better to see the Labour Party destroyed and the Lib Dems take their place as a major party.

    Not going to happen though. Far, far too many ultra-safe seats and robot voters. IMHO the current polls are substantially understating their support. On balance, I still think it likely that Labour will go backwards in this election, but I doubt it'll be even as bad as Foot in 1983 and probably a little bit better: it'll weaken them but there will be no knockout blow, sad to say.
    down to 200 seats satisfies my criteria for a pounding.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    I really do hope Labour get pounded like a dockside hooker. Corbyn deserves to lose really big. His policies would be disastrous for the UK, its going to be tough enough after Brexit. We don't need to pour oil on troubled waters.

    It would be nice to think we could be rid of the threat of Corbynite Labour. Actually, it would be even better to see the Labour Party destroyed and the Lib Dems take their place as a major party.

    Not going to happen though. Far, far too many ultra-safe seats and robot voters. IMHO the current polls are substantially understating their support. On balance, I still think it likely that Labour will go backwards in this election, but I doubt it'll be even as bad as Foot in 1983 and probably a little bit better: it'll weaken them but there will be no knockout blow, sad to say.
    The difference from 1983 is LABs wipeout in Scotland. I think a lower overall Lab seat number is nailed on. It is hard to find candidates for Labour gains, fairly easy to find losses. Lab sub 200 imo.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690
    Sandpit said:

    moonshine said:

    If you’re Farage and you want Brexit done, what’s your best play?

    If you believe that BXP is now mainly a repository for Labour / Brexit voters that won’t ever countenance voting Tory, then I reckon your best play is to put some distance between your own party and Boris, so as not to scare them back into Corbyn’s arms.

    Farage must surely know that this “let’s have an alliance for a REAL Brexit” is a nonsense that will never happen now Boris is so publicly wedded to his deal. And if thinking rationally he must also realise that if he prevents Boris getting a majority, it’s highly unlikely it will be because a block of BXP MPs hold the balance of power, and more likely because his votes increased the seat count of the Lib Dem’s and Labour.

    So either he genuinely thinks this deal isn’t Brexit (which would be bizarre but he is an odd fish), he doesn’t care about Brexit and only his own career (possible but also bizarre as killing Brexit would be self defeating, unless he really fancies himself to win a second election later in the year). Or we’re seeing a last petulant outburst against Cummings before he pulls back the attack dogs in key Con marginals, while keeping up the anti Boris pretence in some key LAB seats.

    BXP won’t get to double figures % in vote share. Most will see their job was done at the Euros in bringing May‘s time to an end.

    You’re making the assumption that Farage wants Brexit done. Many of us are not sure that he does.
    The structure of BXP as a company is odd and raises that suspicion doesn’t it? Getting Brexit done would be bad for business
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,706
    edited October 2019
    Roger said:

    Good news for Jo Swinson. 'The Office of Somewhere or Other' have just announced that leaving the EU with Johnson's deal will cost £70 billion and the BBC Today prog led the news with it. I didn't catch whether this was every year but I imagine it is. All we got as rebuttal was the ever more insipid Jvis saying we would do very well when we're outside.

    Accordig to my calculations that's 70 brand new fully equiped hospitals. I feel a BIG RED BUS coming on.....

    This is the point of the LibDems dropping the referendum idea. In itself just revoking isn't particularly popular - Remainiacs generally think there should be a referendum. But the fabulous presents you can get when you spend the Revoke Dividend are going to be *very* popular, and you can't really put those in your manifesto if you're promising to let the people decide whether you'll have the money or not.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    I really do hope Labour get pounded like a dockside hooker. Corbyn deserves to lose really big. His policies would be disastrous for the UK, its going to be tough enough after Brexit. We don't need to pour oil on troubled waters.

    And on the other side we have a CoE who claims that a deal which will cost us £70 billion is manifestly in the country’s interests.
    Leaving aside the economists' predictions (and that particular profession has been so thoroughly discredited over the past decade that one might just as well ask Russell Grant to pull large random numbers out of thin air,) even if this latest guess were valid, a £70bn bill spread over ten years would be a drop in the ocean next to the economic asteroid promised by this demented Opposition.

    You violate private property rights and straight away it's over. No-one will invest if they think it possible some or all of their wealth will be expropriated on a whim by the Treasury. The currency will start to collapse. Before long, people will be taking their money out of the banks and hoarding it in mattresses, or converting it into gold whilst the pound is still worth enough to make that possible.

    The absolute priority in this mess is to keep Labour in Opposition or, failing that, at least to weaken its Parliamentary caucus as much as possible, so that its worst impulses can be restrained by other parties. At this election, every Labour seat lost - whether to the Tories, the Brexit Party, the Lib Dems or the SNP - is to be celebrated. The rest is noise.
  • DearPBDearPB Posts: 439

    I really do hope Labour get pounded like a dockside hooker. w

    Congratulations you win the prize for most offensive simile of the year.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    edited October 2019
    Big disadvantage is that the Tories will be facing an opposition of five. Anyone who says there isn't strength in numbers can't count.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Good morning, everyone.

    Hoping the Lib Dems become one of the biggest two parties. Not an especial fan, but I like their policy of not being socialist delinquents.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Foxy said:

    I really do hope Labour get pounded like a dockside hooker. Corbyn deserves to lose really big. His policies would be disastrous for the UK, its going to be tough enough after Brexit. We don't need to pour oil on troubled waters.

    It would be nice to think we could be rid of the threat of Corbynite Labour. Actually, it would be even better to see the Labour Party destroyed and the Lib Dems take their place as a major party.

    Not going to happen though. Far, far too many ultra-safe seats and robot voters. IMHO the current polls are substantially understating their support. On balance, I still think it likely that Labour will go backwards in this election, but I doubt it'll be even as bad as Foot in 1983 and probably a little bit better: it'll weaken them but there will be no knockout blow, sad to say.
    The difference from 1983 is LABs wipeout in Scotland. I think a lower overall Lab seat number is nailed on. It is hard to find candidates for Labour gains, fairly easy to find losses. Lab sub 200 imo.
    I hope you're right, but I remain to be convinced. I have this sinking feeling that an awful lot of the voters who are telling the pollsters they've ditched Labour are either lying through embarrassment (i.e. there's a "Shy Labour" thing going on,) or think they mean it now but will revert to their robotic habits when they reach the polling booth.

    There will be Labour losses, and the Conservatives *might* be able to pick up enough of these to get them over the winning line - but I wouldn't exactly bet the farm on the prospect. Still think another Hung Parliament is more likely.
  • DearPBDearPB Posts: 439
    Roger said:

    Big disadvantage is that the Tories will be facing an opposition of five. Anyone who says there isn't strength in numbers can't count.

    But it’s not an addition sum it’s a division.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    philiph said:

    Roger said:

    Good news for Jo Swinson. 'The Office of Somewhere or Other' have just announced that leaving the EU with Johnson's deal will cost £70 billion and the BBC Today prog led the news with it. I didn't catch whether this was every year but I imagine it is. All we got as rebuttal was the ever more insipid Jvis saying we would do very well when we're outside.

    Accordig to my calculations that's 70 brand new fully equiped hospitals. I feel a BIG RED BUS coming on.....

    I think it was by 2029, but I may be mistaken.
    I wasn't either but it's the figure that sticks and helps to build the narrative. Six weeks of solid Brexit bashing in cleverer hands than last time and without the constraints of it being a government project should be very powerful.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited October 2019

    Foxy said:

    I really do hope Labour get pounded like a dockside hooker. Corbyn deserves to lose really big. His policies would be disastrous for the UK, its going to be tough enough after Brexit. We don't need to pour oil on troubled waters.

    It would be nice to think we could be rid of the threat of Corbynite Labour. Actually, it would be even better to see the Labour Party destroyed and the Lib Dems take their place as a major party.

    Not going to happen though. Far, far too many ultra-safe seats and robot voters. IMHO the current polls are substantially understating their support. On balance, I still think it likely that Labour will go backwards in this election, but I doubt it'll be even as bad as Foot in 1983 and probably a little bit better: it'll weaken them but there will be no knockout blow, sad to say.
    The difference from 1983 is LABs wipeout in Scotland. I think a lower overall Lab seat number is nailed on. It is hard to find candidates for Labour gains, fairly easy to find losses. Lab sub 200 imo.
    I hope you're right, but I remain to be convinced. I have this sinking feeling that an awful lot of the voters who are telling the pollsters they've ditched Labour are either lying through embarrassment (i.e. there's a "Shy Labour" thing going on,) or think they mean it now but will revert to their robotic habits when they reach the polling booth.

    There will be Labour losses, and the Conservatives *might* be able to pick up enough of these to get them over the winning line - but I wouldn't exactly bet the farm on the prospect. Still think another Hung Parliament is more likely.
    It is hard to work out if there is a shy Labour element to the polls. Also there could be a shy tory element to the polls.

    No way of knowing right now, but almost certainly gaming of polling panels by all sides .
  • DearPBDearPB Posts: 439
    edited October 2019
    What will be interesting to see is how sophisticated the coverage in the media will be of the complexities of this election with regard to constituency level anomalies and differential swing. Judging from the Guardian article this morning entirely based on UNS; not very
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    DearPB said:

    I really do hope Labour get pounded like a dockside hooker. w

    Congratulations you win the prize for most offensive simile of the year.
    I think that honour belongs to TSE, I was merely repeating it.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    There are maybe five campaigns this election:

    In the South, the fight between Tory and LD
    In the North, the battle between Tory and Labour.
    In Scotland, the war for SNP supremacy
    In Northern Ireland, the DUP-Alliance-SF tussle.

    Perhaps the GE will be “won” in Wales, which looks like a Tory - Labour contest.

    Per usual, the media will only report on the Southern front - so door to door anecdata will be highly useful.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772
    The key to this GE will be whether that realignment in the midlands and part of the north that we thought was going to happen in GE2017 actually does happen.

    Remember all the vox pops at the start of the campaign in places like Wakefield where Labour voters were telling the Beeb they loved Mrs May and they’d be changing their vote? Boris needs them now.

    Whether he succeeds or not will pretty much decide his chances of an overall majority. I think it’s possible, but fraught with risk as May found to her detriment. A campaign misstep and that long-predicted realignment is off again.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Roger said:

    philiph said:

    Roger said:

    Good news for Jo Swinson. 'The Office of Somewhere or Other' have just announced that leaving the EU with Johnson's deal will cost £70 billion and the BBC Today prog led the news with it. I didn't catch whether this was every year but I imagine it is. All we got as rebuttal was the ever more insipid Jvis saying we would do very well when we're outside.

    Accordig to my calculations that's 70 brand new fully equiped hospitals. I feel a BIG RED BUS coming on.....

    I think it was by 2029, but I may be mistaken.
    I wasn't either but it's the figure that sticks and helps to build the narrative. Six weeks of solid Brexit bashing in cleverer hands than last time and without the constraints of it being a government project should be very powerful.
    Spot the problem?

    Where are the cleverer hands coming from?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    DearPB said:

    Roger said:

    Big disadvantage is that the Tories will be facing an opposition of five. Anyone who says there isn't strength in numbers can't count.

    But it’s not an addition sum it’s a division.
    Is it?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    'National institute of somewhere'. They also say Johnson's deal will leave us worse off than May's deal. If re running the referendum becomes the narrative it'll be bad news for Johnson.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    I was wrong last time, but I also have a “bad feeling”.

    I think *everyone* will underperform - which means a NOM.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    Good morning, everyone.

    Hoping the Lib Dems become one of the biggest two parties. Not an especial fan, but I like their policy of not being socialist delinquents.

    Hoping isn’t enough. People who want the LibDems to supplant Labour need to vote for them.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    I quite fancy a four day working week. I think we’d just waste less time on pointless meetings and get on with the job.
  • So, is the Sun right? Out by 1st January if the Tories win a majority? Seems pretty tight to me.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    I do think Tory success in the North is overstated, as is LD success in the South. Again, I think this may all come down to the fight for working class seats in Wales.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Roger said:

    'National institute of somewhere'. They also say Johnson's deal will leave us worse off than May's deal. If re running the referendum becomes the narrative it'll be bad news for Johnson.

    Are you right in assuming people who are entrenched will listen to arguements? Facts are opinion and forcasts, very hard to shift people now, even if you are right.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    I’m betting on the basis that the electorate is highly volatile, anything could happen and the polls have been all over the place during the last year.

    One very interesting bet is the post-election government with Ladbrokes where LD-Lab-SNP coalition is 16/1 (or 18/1 with a boost).

    I’ve had a taste. LD/SNP have already cooperated to bring about this election and it’s not difficult to see all three parties come together (Corbyn would probably need to resign first) to block the Tories and call a 2nd referendum if Boris falls short.
  • moonshine said:

    If you’re Farage and you want Brexit done, what’s your best play?

    If you believe that BXP is now mainly a repository for Labour / Brexit voters that won’t ever countenance voting Tory, then I reckon your best play is to put some distance between your own party and Boris, so as not to scare them back into Corbyn’s arms.

    Farage must surely know that this “let’s have an alliance for a REAL Brexit” is a nonsense that will never happen now Boris is so publicly wedded to his deal. And if thinking rationally he must also realise that if he prevents Boris getting a majority, it’s highly unlikely it will be because a block of BXP MPs hold the balance of power, and more likely because his votes increased the seat count of the Lib Dem’s and Labour.

    So either he genuinely thinks this deal isn’t Brexit (which would be bizarre but he is an odd fish), he doesn’t care about Brexit and only his own career (possible but also bizarre as killing Brexit would be self defeating, unless he really fancies himself to win a second election later in the year). Or we’re seeing a last petulant outburst against Cummings before he pulls back the attack dogs in key Con marginals, while keeping up the anti Boris pretence in some key LAB seats.

    BXP won’t get to double figures % in vote share. Most will see their job was done at the Euros in bringing May‘s time to an end.

    Why would it be bizarre that Farage doesnt think this deal is not Brexit when 1) he has already said it isnt 2) a leading tory leave politician called this form of deal preposterous, deranged, akin to wearing a suicide vest, feeble and pathetic.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    Good morning, everyone.

    Hoping the Lib Dems become one of the biggest two parties. Not an especial fan, but I like their policy of not being socialist delinquents.

    Zzzzzzzzz.
  • Par score for Labour is 165 - this feels like Tories 1997 levels of beating to me. However, I go with yesterday's prediction of non big2 parties doing record levels of well.

    Farage hasn't gone away and his "clean break Brexit" resonates in a way that the Johnson Surrender Deal doesn't. Expect to hear agonising detail about how a vote Johnson is a vote for further agonising years of aggro over Brexit, where instead of "get Brexit done" people realise this is just the start. Whilst I don't expect the BXP to win many seats (tip Hartlepool) they will be a major disruption to HYUFDs fantasy of a Boris landslide

    On the other side there will be a big LibDem breakthrough and a big SNP restoration - how big depends on the campaign. Never mind the simple clear and positive campaigns that both parties will fight, I can't wait for the hate fest shitshow that is the Labour campaign. Jezbollah will continue to parade himself like Romulus Augustus Caesar. MPs will continue to fight their battle against Momentum and Divide, Richard Burgon (and his Incredible Universe) will openly contradict Starmer over Brexit whilst Pidcockkk will be sent out to insist this isn't a Brexit election
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    DearPB said:

    Roger said:

    Big disadvantage is that the Tories will be facing an opposition of five. Anyone who says there isn't strength in numbers can't count.

    But it’s not an addition sum it’s a division.
    Is it?
    Possibly, possibly not.

    There are few three way marginals. In most seats and regions it is quite clear who to vote for to bring down the Tories.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    Good morning everyone.

    Will it be 'all over by Christmas'?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    I really do hope Labour get pounded like a dockside hooker.

    Charmless misogyny with our morning pastry.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    philiph said:

    Roger said:

    Good news for Jo Swinson. 'The Office of Somewhere or Other' have just announced that leaving the EU with Johnson's deal will cost £70 billion and the BBC Today prog led the news with it. I didn't catch whether this was every year but I imagine it is. All we got as rebuttal was the ever more insipid Jvis saying we would do very well when we're outside.

    Accordig to my calculations that's 70 brand new fully equiped hospitals. I feel a BIG RED BUS coming on.....

    I think it was by 2029, but I may be mistaken.
    Every year until at least 2029
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    So, is the Sun right? Out by 1st January if the Tories win a majority? Seems pretty tight to me.

    If they win a majority, there’s no rush to leave. I suspect we’ll leave on 31 Jan or later.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    So, is the Sun right? Out by 1st January if the Tories win a majority? Seems pretty tight to me.

    I don't think there would be time before New Year.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Mr. B2, voting yellow in a red-blue marginal helps the reds (as I'd otherwise vote Conservative). Corbyn's Labour getting more seats is the exact opposite of what I want.

    In a yellow-red marginal, I'd vote Lib Dem.

    [If it were yellow-blue, I might be looking at the candidates more than the parties].
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    Foxy said:

    DearPB said:

    Roger said:

    Big disadvantage is that the Tories will be facing an opposition of five. Anyone who says there isn't strength in numbers can't count.

    But it’s not an addition sum it’s a division.
    Is it?
    Possibly, possibly not.

    There are few three way marginals. In most seats and regions it is quite clear who to vote for to bring down the Tories.
    Indeed so. And we can expect massive, well-funded, anti-Brexit tactical voting campaigns.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    DearPB said:

    I really do hope Labour get pounded like a dockside hooker. w

    Congratulations you win the prize for most offensive simile of the year.
    No, that was the poster who said Labour MPs voting for this deal were like Jewish Deputies voting for the 1933 Enabling Act.

    Especially since he couldn’t see why that was offensive.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427
    How do those people who want a quick FTA with the USA reconcile that with the fact it probably rules out a FTA with the EU as per Barnier today?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    philiph said:

    Roger said:

    'National institute of somewhere'. They also say Johnson's deal will leave us worse off than May's deal. If re running the referendum becomes the narrative it'll be bad news for Johnson.

    Are you right in assuming people who are entrenched will listen to arguements? Facts are opinion and forcasts, very hard to shift people now, even if you are right.
    I agree but if the 50% Remainers get motivated which they haven't been lately and the Leavers start asking themselves whether it's all been worth it anything can happen.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    I really do hope Labour get pounded like a dockside hooker.

    Charmless misogyny with our morning pastry.
    Quite.

    Revolting.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    How do those people who want a quick FTA with the USA reconcile that with the fact it probably rules out a FTA with the EU as per Barnier today?

    The EU is the priority.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851

    So, is the Sun right? Out by 1st January if the Tories win a majority? Seems pretty tight to me.

    I'd be interested to see some polling on the numbers of people who trust the various newspapers. Readership doesn't equate to trust particularly with the redtops.
  • DearPB said:

    Roger said:

    Big disadvantage is that the Tories will be facing an opposition of five. Anyone who says there isn't strength in numbers can't count.

    But it’s not an addition sum it’s a division.
    Is it?
    That's the question, and I don't think anyone knows the answer well enough to make confident predictions.

    The nightmare scenario for the Conservatives is that the opposition ends up being geographically organised; SNP boss Scotland, Labour do well in Northern Leaverstan, Lib Dems do well in Southern Remainia.

    For balance, the Conservative dream is that the clumping doesn't happen, so they can stride through the middle everywhere.

    A lot turns on which of these better matches reality.

    In any case, how big a majority would BJ need to be reasonably rebellion-proof for the next stage of his plans?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    Mr. B2, voting yellow in a red-blue marginal helps the reds (as I'd otherwise vote Conservative). Corbyn's Labour getting more seats is the exact opposite of what I want.

    In a yellow-red marginal, I'd vote Lib Dem.

    [If it were yellow-blue, I might be looking at the candidates more than the parties].

    Will you be voting for Andrea “Joker” Jenkyns again?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    The Cambridge poll is excellent news for Leavers. Remainers are devoting energy & money to fighting each other.

    Even if the University seats change, it will simply be replacing a Red Uber-Remainer with a Yellow Uber-Remainer.

    Notice how the LibDems are only keen on a "Remain Alliance" when it suits their own narrow, sectional interests.
  • I’m betting on the basis that the electorate is highly volatile, anything could happen and the polls have been all over the place during the last year.

    One very interesting bet is the post-election government with Ladbrokes where LD-Lab-SNP coalition is 16/1 (or 18/1 with a boost).

    I’ve had a taste. LD/SNP have already cooperated to bring about this election and it’s not difficult to see all three parties come together (Corbyn would probably need to resign first) to block the Tories and call a 2nd referendum if Boris falls short.

    If the tories call two GEs to get a mandate for Brexit and fail both times, surely their politicians respect the peoples answers and accept we can move on without the need for another referendum. Similarly if the Tories win their mandate, lets leave even if the majority of the country is now against.

    It seems unnacceptable to frame the GE as a mandate for Brexit, but only if Brexit wins, otherwise they want yet another go.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320

    The key to this GE will be whether that realignment in the midlands and part of the north that we thought was going to happen in GE2017 actually does happen.

    Remember all the vox pops at the start of the campaign in places like Wakefield where Labour voters were telling the Beeb they loved Mrs May and they’d be changing their vote? Boris needs them now.

    Whether he succeeds or not will pretty much decide his chances of an overall majority. I think it’s possible, but fraught with risk as May found to her detriment. A campaign misstep and that long-predicted realignment is off again.

    It’s possible that the Tory -> Lib Dem realignment materialises in a big way while the Labour -> Tory realignment is a damp squib.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    I’m betting on the basis that the electorate is highly volatile, anything could happen and the polls have been all over the place during the last year.

    One very interesting bet is the post-election government with Ladbrokes where LD-Lab-SNP coalition is 16/1 (or 18/1 with a boost).

    I’ve had a taste. LD/SNP have already cooperated to bring about this election and it’s not difficult to see all three parties come together (Corbyn would probably need to resign first) to block the Tories and call a 2nd referendum if Boris falls short.

    If the tories call two GEs to get a mandate for Brexit and fail both times, surely their politicians respect the peoples answers and accept we can move on without the need for another referendum. Similarly if the Tories win their mandate, lets leave even if the majority of the country is now against.

    It seems unnacceptable to frame the GE as a mandate for Brexit, but only if Brexit wins, otherwise they want yet another go.
    Well yes if course it’s unacceptable, just as it was first time around, but it’s unacceptability is irrelevant to Bunter and his odious gang of clowns and goons.

  • The Cambridge poll is excellent news for Leavers. Remainers are devoting energy & money to fighting each other.

    Even if the University seats change, it will simply be replacing a Red Uber-Remainer with a Yellow Uber-Remainer.

    Notice how the LibDems are only keen on a "Remain Alliance" when it suits their own narrow, sectional interests.

    Labour chose not be in the remain alliance. They may be the best remain choice in many seats but are not part of that alliance, through no fault of the LDs.
  • DearPBDearPB Posts: 439
    Only to people who pay any attention. Most voters are blind to the subtleties if their personal constituency circumstances.
  • How do those people who want a quick FTA with the USA reconcile that with the fact it probably rules out a FTA with the EU as per Barnier today?

    Is a quick FTA with the USA a plausible thing unless one party wins all three branches in the 2020 elections. I doubt it.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637

    Par score for Labour is 165 - this feels like Tories 1997 levels of beating to me. However, I go with yesterday's prediction of non big2 parties doing record levels of well.

    Farage hasn't gone away and his "clean break Brexit" resonates in a way that the Johnson Surrender Deal doesn't. Expect to hear agonising detail about how a vote Johnson is a vote for further agonising years of aggro over Brexit, where instead of "get Brexit done" people realise this is just the start. Whilst I don't expect the BXP to win many seats (tip Hartlepool) they will be a major disruption to HYUFDs fantasy of a Boris landslide

    On the other side there will be a big LibDem breakthrough and a big SNP restoration - how big depends on the campaign. Never mind the simple clear and positive campaigns that both parties will fight, I can't wait for the hate fest shitshow that is the Labour campaign. Jezbollah will continue to parade himself like Romulus Augustus Caesar. MPs will continue to fight their battle against Momentum and Divide, Richard Burgon (and his Incredible Universe) will openly contradict Starmer over Brexit whilst Pidcockkk will be sent out to insist this isn't a Brexit election

    You really are bitter aren't you.

    Try bigging up Tory Swinsons policies instead of the hate fest
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    DearPB said:

    Only to people who pay any attention. Most voters are blind to the subtleties if their personal constituency circumstances.

    Are they?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    Par score for Labour is 165 - this feels like Tories 1997 levels of beating to me. However, I go with yesterday's prediction of non big2 parties doing record levels of well.

    Farage hasn't gone away and his "clean break Brexit" resonates in a way that the Johnson Surrender Deal doesn't. Expect to hear agonising detail about how a vote Johnson is a vote for further agonising years of aggro over Brexit, where instead of "get Brexit done" people realise this is just the start. Whilst I don't expect the BXP to win many seats (tip Hartlepool) they will be a major disruption to HYUFDs fantasy of a Boris landslide

    On the other side there will be a big LibDem breakthrough and a big SNP restoration - how big depends on the campaign. Never mind the simple clear and positive campaigns that both parties will fight, I can't wait for the hate fest shitshow that is the Labour campaign. Jezbollah will continue to parade himself like Romulus Augustus Caesar. MPs will continue to fight their battle against Momentum and Divide, Richard Burgon (and his Incredible Universe) will openly contradict Starmer over Brexit whilst Pidcockkk will be sent out to insist this isn't a Brexit election

    You really are bitter aren't you.

    Try bigging up Tory Swinsons policies instead of the hate fest
    For once I agree with you. Rochdale’s endless negging is utterly tiresome.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    I’m betting on the basis that the electorate is highly volatile, anything could happen and the polls have been all over the place during the last year.

    One very interesting bet is the post-election government with Ladbrokes where LD-Lab-SNP coalition is 16/1 (or 18/1 with a boost).

    I’ve had a taste. LD/SNP have already cooperated to bring about this election and it’s not difficult to see all three parties come together (Corbyn would probably need to resign first) to block the Tories and call a 2nd referendum if Boris falls short.

    If the tories call two GEs to get a mandate for Brexit and fail both times, surely their politicians respect the peoples answers and accept we can move on without the need for another referendum. Similarly if the Tories win their mandate, lets leave even if the majority of the country is now against.

    It seems unnacceptable to frame the GE as a mandate for Brexit, but only if Brexit wins, otherwise they want yet another go.
    Well yes if course it’s unacceptable, just as it was first time around, but it’s unacceptability is irrelevant to Bunter and his odious gang of clowns and goons.
    But Fortunately he isn’t going to win the election so it doesn’t matter. He couldn’t do it in 2017 and the only thing that has changed since is he’s lost the youth vote.

    Oh sorry, is ‘Bunter’ not a reference to Corbyn?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    edited October 2019
    philiph said:

    Roger said:

    philiph said:

    Roger said:

    Good news for Jo Swinson. 'The Office of Somewhere or Other' have just announced that leaving the EU with Johnson's deal will cost £70 billion and the BBC Today prog led the news with it. I didn't catch whether this was every year but I imagine it is. All we got as rebuttal was the ever more insipid Jvis saying we would do very well when we're outside.

    Accordig to my calculations that's 70 brand new fully equiped hospitals. I feel a BIG RED BUS coming on.....

    I think it was by 2029, but I may be mistaken.
    I wasn't either but it's the figure that sticks and helps to build the narrative. Six weeks of solid Brexit bashing in cleverer hands than last time and without the constraints of it being a government project should be very powerful.
    Spot the problem?

    Where are the cleverer hands coming from?
    Some of the best ad men and women in the world function from these islands. All of them Remainers and without the conflicts of interest that normally prevent them becoming involved in political campaigns
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994

    I quite fancy a four day working week. I think we’d just waste less time on pointless meetings and get on with the job.

    Bane of my life. I’ve stopped going to most of mine.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    F1: apparently there are Hulkenberg to Red Bull rumours. Not sure I'm persuaded.

    As an aside, all season long he and Ricciardo have been within six points of one another. Given how good Ricciardo is, that's not a bad record.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    After four disastrous years the Tories deserve a stint in opposition.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    (Corbyn would probably need to resign first)

    He wouldn't resign. If Corbo denies Johnson and overall majority he'd count that as a victory.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    I’m betting on the basis that the electorate is highly volatile, anything could happen and the polls have been all over the place during the last year.

    One very interesting bet is the post-election government with Ladbrokes where LD-Lab-SNP coalition is 16/1 (or 18/1 with a boost).

    I’ve had a taste. LD/SNP have already cooperated to bring about this election and it’s not difficult to see all three parties come together (Corbyn would probably need to resign first) to block the Tories and call a 2nd referendum if Boris falls short.

    Another great post by you.

    There's a lot of certainty around on here at the moment based on next-to-nothing.

    In such times it's good to take a step back and look at what we know. You're absolutely spot on about the polls.

    This is a huge gamble by Johnson. I am far from convinced by the Tory hopefuls on here that it's going to succeed. But I'm watching and waiting. The first polls with samples post-October 31st will be interesting. Give it a couple of weeks and let's see the shake-down on this. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the two main parties within 6% of each other.

    A lot may depend on the tv debates. Will Johnson duck them? He will try and avoid scrutiny at every opportunity but six weeks is a long time and eventually the media will turn on him if he keeps doing it.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172


    The Cambridge poll is excellent news for Leavers. Remainers are devoting energy & money to fighting each other.

    Even if the University seats change, it will simply be replacing a Red Uber-Remainer with a Yellow Uber-Remainer.

    Notice how the LibDems are only keen on a "Remain Alliance" when it suits their own narrow, sectional interests.

    Labour chose not be in the remain alliance. They may be the best remain choice in many seats but are not part of that alliance, through no fault of the LDs.
    Err, when did the LibDems offer to stand down from Remainer Labour or SNP-held constituencies ?

    I missed it.

    The LibDem "Remainer Alliance" was only offered to Green & PC, as far I am aware.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    edited October 2019
    Dura_Ace said:

    (Corbyn would probably need to resign first)

    He wouldn't resign. If Corbo denies Johnson and overall majority he'd count that as a victory.
    But the price of him staying as leader is Johnson staying as PM. Or another election that he will (a) have no money to fight and (b) be blamed for.

    That raises another issue. Do we know what the party finances are like right now? There was a rumour Labour were struggling financially a while back.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    Dura_Ace said:

    (Corbyn would probably need to resign first)

    He wouldn't resign. If Corbo denies Johnson and overall majority he'd count that as a victory.
    That’s possible. But he might also have had enough and want to hand over to a successor.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    Doubts about Swinson, doubts about Corbyn but either are better than Johnson.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    Jonathan said:

    After four disastrous years the Tories deserve a stint in opposition.

    Ah, the Labour Party propaganda machine is here.

    This is a betting site mate. If you want to push partisan attack lines try Labour List.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    ydoethur said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    (Corbyn would probably need to resign first)

    He wouldn't resign. If Corbo denies Johnson and overall majority he'd count that as a victory.
    But the price of him staying as leader is Johnson staying as PM. Or another election that he will (a) have no money to fight and (b) be blamed for.

    That raises another issue. Do we know what the party finances are like right now? There was a rumour Labour we’re struggling financially a while back.
    Corbyn would rather have another election. He is that stupid, conceited and stubborn.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Lots of PB Tory speculation about the Liberal Democrats supplanting Labour as a more acceptable Opposition to eternal Conservative rule. What if it's the other way round?

    This might look fanciful given the opinion polls now, but there are a swathe of Tory Home Counties seats which voted for Remain and might have qualms about the deficit-exploding populism of the Johnson Ministry.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    I rather expect a modest Tory majority at this point. I think the get Brexit done line will resonate with people who didn't actually care much either way but are sick to the back teeth of it. The Brexit Party and Labour are basically offering yet more Brexit whilst the try to persuade the EU to once again re-open negotiations for a different kind of deal. Neither are credible. The Lib Dems policy is illiberal and undemocratic but at least it is clear and decisive.

    The BBC headline is Boris saying this will be tough. I am not detecting the frankly demented arrogance and hubris of May in 2017. Boris will actually campaign and he is rather good at it. Of course many Tory shibboleths will be discarded, not least of which is any real grip on public spending. Javid won't get his budget after all. Probably just as well if his financial statement was anything to go by. If Boris gets a clear majority I frankly wonder if he will keep his post.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    Dura_Ace said:

    (Corbyn would probably need to resign first)

    He wouldn't resign. If Corbo denies Johnson and overall majority he'd count that as a victory.
    That’s possible. But he might also have had enough and want to hand over to a successor.
    Takes a long while to elect a Labour leader, and he wouldn’t agree to a stitch up given that would mean a sane, oops, centrist candidate winning. Who would be PM in the interim? Both Watson and Macdonnell would be unacceptable to various people for various reasons.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555

    Jonathan said:

    After four disastrous years the Tories deserve a stint in opposition.

    Ah, the Labour Party propaganda machine is here.

    This is a betting site mate. If you want to push partisan attack lines try Labour List.
    I bow before the CR god of objectivity. Chuckles.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994

    Par score for Labour is 165 - this feels like Tories 1997 levels of beating to me. However, I go with yesterday's prediction of non big2 parties doing record levels of well.

    Farage hasn't gone away and his "clean break Brexit" resonates in a way that the Johnson Surrender Deal doesn't. Expect to hear agonising detail about how a vote Johnson is a vote for further agonising years of aggro over Brexit, where instead of "get Brexit done" people realise this is just the start. Whilst I don't expect the BXP to win many seats (tip Hartlepool) they will be a major disruption to HYUFDs fantasy of a Boris landslide

    On the other side there will be a big LibDem breakthrough and a big SNP restoration - how big depends on the campaign. Never mind the simple clear and positive campaigns that both parties will fight, I can't wait for the hate fest shitshow that is the Labour campaign. Jezbollah will continue to parade himself like Romulus Augustus Caesar. MPs will continue to fight their battle against Momentum and Divide, Richard Burgon (and his Incredible Universe) will openly contradict Starmer over Brexit whilst Pidcockkk will be sent out to insist this isn't a Brexit election

    You really are bitter aren't you.

    Try bigging up Tory Swinsons policies instead of the hate fest
    For once I agree with you. Rochdale’s endless negging is utterly tiresome.
    I think he used to compare the Tories to evil killers guilty of state manslaughter.

    Or something.

    Best ignored.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772

    I’m betting on the basis that the electorate is highly volatile, anything could happen and the polls have been all over the place during the last year.

    One very interesting bet is the post-election government with Ladbrokes where LD-Lab-SNP coalition is 16/1 (or 18/1 with a boost).

    I’ve had a taste. LD/SNP have already cooperated to bring about this election and it’s not difficult to see all three parties come together (Corbyn would probably need to resign first) to block the Tories and call a 2nd referendum if Boris falls short.

    Another great post by you.

    There's a lot of certainty around on here at the moment based on next-to-nothing.

    In such times it's good to take a step back and look at what we know. You're absolutely spot on about the polls.

    This is a huge gamble by Johnson. I am far from convinced by the Tory hopefuls on here that it's going to succeed. But I'm watching and waiting. The first polls with samples post-October 31st will be interesting. Give it a couple of weeks and let's see the shake-down on this. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the two main parties within 6% of each other.

    A lot may depend on the tv debates. Will Johnson duck them? He will try and avoid scrutiny at every opportunity but six weeks is a long time and eventually the media will turn on him if he keeps doing it.
    Actually I think it’s surprisingly balanced on here. A lot of nervous supporters of both main parties, I’d say...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    How do those people who want a quick FTA with the USA reconcile that with the fact it probably rules out a FTA with the EU as per Barnier today?

    The major reason so many Tories want a FTA with the USA is to prevent a close EU deal. That lack of compatability is a feature not a bug.

    They want to ensure that we cannot rejoin, and have no problem being Trump's poodle.
This discussion has been closed.