Probably missed it but just wondering how your wife is doing? Did she opt for a treatment plan?
Thanks for asking, mate. She declined the chemotherapy plan. It's been quite a journey, but she is in a good mental place and doing really well. She has just started radio therapy and will have hormone treatment afterwards. Just have to move on and get on with whatever life lobs at us. It has at least given us impetus to do things that we want/need/should have done.
Do the Greens recommend their voters go to the Lib Dems or do they just not contest the seat and say nothing .
I think regardless this is a good move by the Lib Dems , it’s likely that the green vote has large variations between constituencies, take for example the Cambridge poll .
In some seats they might be pulling 10% and others very much lower .
I've just tried out the tactical voting website. I was recommended to vote LD even though the result last time was as follows: Con 64%, Lab 29%, LD 5%, Green 3%.
Nothing personal but I can't help thinking every time Matt Hancock appears on TV the potential Tory vote goes down.
Ghastly man.
EDIT: Hancock, I hasten to add, Andy, not you.
I have long thought matt hancock is not just untrustworthy but more than that his whole body language and facial expression give him away! You watch him and think that man is not on the level and he is a stranger to the truth...
The consolidation in the car space has been quite incredible over the past 10 or so years. How many car companies that produce at real scale these days? 10?
Probably missed it but just wondering how your wife is doing? Did she opt for a treatment plan?
Thanks for asking, mate. She declined the chemotherapy plan. It's been quite a journey, but she is in a good mental place and doing really well. She has just started radio therapy and will have hormone treatment afterwards. Just have to move on and get on with whatever life lobs at us. It has at least given us impetus to do things that we want/need/should have done.
I don't blame her for declining the chemotherapy. It can be extremely gruelling.
Lumpectomy and radiotherapy followed by five years of hormone tratment is the treatment regimen my mum had for stage one one breast cancer in 2013. She's six years cancer-free now.
Hope her treatment goes well and keep us in touch with her progress.
I'd be delighted to meet pb friends in person if anyone can make it - it's in the north of the West Midlands and yet only 90 mins from London on the train.
I've just tried out the tactical voting website. I was recommended to vote LD even though the result last time was as follows: Con 64%, Lab 29%, LD 5%, Green 3%.
I got vote Lib Dem in Bognor Regis and Littlehampton which had a result of Con 59 Lab 25 Lib Dem 6.5
in 2010 - Uxbridge was 18 percentage points more Conservative than the nation in 2015 - Uxbridge was 17 percentage points more Conservative than the nation in 2017 - Uxbridge was 9 percentage points more Conservative than the nation
So there has been a move away from the Tories. Even if there was a similar shift to last time then Uxbridge would still be 1 point more Conservative than the nation.
It is possible that Boris loses Uxbridge but in that case he will also have lost the election. I don't see it is remotely credible that Boris wins the election and loses his own seat.
Any idea how it's calculated? I got a Lib Dem recommendation, despite Labour polling 3x the Lib Dems in 2017...
Seems to be based on candidates signing a pledge (including among other things supporting any pro-EU government). So it might not give the most pro-EU candidate with a chance of winning, but someone with little chance. I guess the other EU elections tactical voting sites will pop up too.
I'd be delighted to meet pb friends in person if anyone can make it - it's in the north of the West Midlands and yet only 90 mins from London on the train.
I've just tried out the tactical voting website. I was recommended to vote LD even though the result last time was as follows: Con 64%, Lab 29%, LD 5%, Green 3%.
I did think yesterday that these sort of sites could make things worse
I’d like to see some constituency polling from key marginals . Not sure national polling is showing an accurate picture .
My one forecast I’m willing to make on a different issue . HS2 will be dropped after the GE if the Tories win.
The issue I have at the moment is that whilst the Tories are way ahead in the polls I can’t see where. We have been told on here this morning that it can’t be welsh valleys, it’s not in the tribal north west areas, and it might possibly be Bishop Auckland. These leads have to manifest somewhere, and unless they are only stacking up votes in their own existing seats, or lost cause opposition seats it has to be bad for someone else somewhere.
I'm having the same difficulty.
It's hard to equate the polls with anything but a clear Tory majority, but where do they win the seats? It looks fairly certain they will lose some in Scotland and Remainerstan, so they have to offset them and then some. The talk seems to be of Labour Leave seats, mainly 'up north', but then we know Brexit isn't that big an issue there and will not necessarily outweigh traditional hostility to the blue team.
It all suggests to me a small advance by Boris and maybe a small overall majority, but far too unpredictable to wager large sums on.
We have to assume that the surprise Labour gains in GE2017 (Crewe and Nantwich, Warwick and Leamington and their ilk) are going to re-flip easily (if they’re not, uh oh!).
You can make an argument that seats like Dewsbury will return to the Tory fold (last won in 2010).
After that it becomes more tricky but you can see a path through seats like Penistone and Stocksbridge and Wakefield (though I have my doubts on the latter because it’s a perennial ‘possible Tory gain’ that never seems to go anywhere.
That’s just some off the top of my head, though I really do agree it’s going to be tough and I can’t see them all falling in an all conquering blue wave.
I'd be delighted to meet pb friends in person if anyone can make it - it's in the north of the West Midlands and yet only 90 mins from London on the train.
I've just tried out the tactical voting website. I was recommended to vote LD even though the result last time was as follows: Con 64%, Lab 29%, LD 5%, Green 3%.
The GE17 baseline is totally irrelevant. That was then this is now and look at more recent election data.
Wonder what Cummings will put on the side of Boris's battle bus?
“Let’s give the £350 mio a week we give to the EU and spend it on US drug companies instead.”?
Can you explain why the government would seek to pay US drug companies more money for the same medicines albeit non generic. I heard the story yesterday and couldn’t for the life of me think why?
That will be the price the US will demand for an FTA with the US. The US has been quite open about what it wants to get from an FTA. The interests of its pharmaceutical and agricultural sector are chief among them and they are not interested in doing favours for the NHS. They see it as a market to be exploited and they very specifically do not like the way NICE seeks to negotiate prices down or only approve drugs which are value for money. US trade negotiators and Trump himself have been quite open about this.
Only our naive or, more likely, dissembling politicians think otherwise. If you think Hancock or Johnson will stand up to the US on this, I have several bridges to sell you.
I've just tried out the tactical voting website. I was recommended to vote LD even though the result last time was as follows: Con 64%, Lab 29%, LD 5%, Green 3%.
I did think yesterday that these sort of sites could make things worse
I think there's a whole swathe of seats where people may as well vote for who they like as tactical voting isn't going to make a difference. That sounds like one.
What a stupid tweet. It is like asking if we will see a fax salesman in cabinet.
You will restart the fireplace salesman meme if you are not careful.
As an aside, Churchill, Attlee, Eden and Macmillan were four successive prime ministers who had fought on the Western Front in the First World War. Something else you no longer see in Cabinet.
Interesting. It recommends Liberal Democrat in North East Somerset and Labour in Portsmouth South, so it's clearly not a front for trying to use tactical voting arguments to justify always supporting one side or the other.
I'd be delighted to meet pb friends in person if anyone can make it - it's in the north of the West Midlands and yet only 90 mins from London on the train.
Probably missed it but just wondering how your wife is doing? Did she opt for a treatment plan?
Thanks for asking, mate. She declined the chemotherapy plan. It's been quite a journey, but she is in a good mental place and doing really well. She has just started radio therapy and will have hormone treatment afterwards. Just have to move on and get on with whatever life lobs at us. It has at least given us impetus to do things that we want/need/should have done.
I've just tried out the tactical voting website. I was recommended to vote LD even though the result last time was as follows: Con 64%, Lab 29%, LD 5%, Green 3%.
I got vote Lib Dem in Bognor Regis and Littlehampton which had a result of Con 59 Lab 25 Lib Dem 6.5
I think that's probably right.
In reality, there's minimal prospect of the Tories losing that seat, but if they did it'd be to the Lib Dems, not Labour, notwithstanding the 2017 result.
Arun District Council had elections this year and returned 22 Lib Dems, 21 Tories, and a sole Labour councillor.
In an election where the Lib Dems are polling two to three times their 2017 total, Labour are substantially down, and the Brexit Party are a factor, the 2017 results aren't, I suspect,a great guide.
The consolidation in the car space has been quite incredible over the past 10 or so years. How many car companies that produce at real scale these days? 10?
Herding together to weather the coming electrical storm.... It will transform the industry, and an awful lot of what goes into cars today will simply be obsoleted.
I have long thought matt hancock is not just untrustworthy but more than that his whole body language and facial expression give him away! You watch him and think that man is not on the level and he is a stranger to the truth...
Totally agree. He has the aura of a man who will advise an acquaintance who has just received their redundancy money of a 'fabulous opportunity in Lithuanian real estate'.
I'd be delighted to meet pb friends in person if anyone can make it - it's in the north of the West Midlands and yet only 90 mins from London on the train.
Just taken a look at the tactical vote website. If you look at the A-Z constituency dropdown it is a sea of recommendations to vote Labour if your aim is the beat the Tories.
Seems to indicate that LibDems will find this GE tougher than I thought.
I’d like to see some constituency polling from key marginals . Not sure national polling is showing an accurate picture .
My one forecast I’m willing to make on a different issue . HS2 will be dropped after the GE if the Tories win.
The issue I have at the moment is that whilst the Tories are way ahead in the polls I can’t see where. We have been told on here this morning that it can’t be welsh valleys, it’s not in the tribal north west areas, and it might possibly be Bishop Auckland. These leads have to manifest somewhere, and unless they are only stacking up votes in their own existing seats, or lost cause opposition seats it has to be bad for someone else somewhere.
I'm having the same difficulty.
It's hard to equate the polls with anything but a clear Tory majority, but where do they win the seats? It looks fairly certain they will lose some in Scotland and Remainerstan, so they have to offset them and then some. The talk seems to be of Labour Leave seats, mainly 'up north', but then we know Brexit isn't that big an issue there and will not necessarily outweigh traditional hostility to the blue team.
It all suggests to me a small advance by Boris and maybe a small overall majority, but far too unpredictable to wager large sums on.
But the Conservative share of the vote is, according to the polls, slightly down on last time. It's just that Labour has collapsed. So maybe it's more profitable to look at it from the point of view of the Opposition:
1) The polls have Labour on barely half what they were on in 2017 2) Those votes must be lost somewhere. Unless they are ALL lost in hopeless seats for the Party, they have to be lost in winnable seats. 3) So Labour will get thoroughly thrashed if the latest polls are at all reflected in the final result. 4) The Lib Dem vote is still distributed fairly inefficiently, so it is unlikely that they will gain enough seats to offset the Labour collapse. 5) The Brexit Party seems to be having an existential crisis at the moment, with many of its members saying that the BJ deal is as good as they'll get.
Of course all this can change quickly and the polls have a dismal record in the last few elections, but at the moment, the Conservatives have reason to be cautiously optimistic.
I'd be delighted to meet pb friends in person if anyone can make it - it's in the north of the West Midlands and yet only 90 mins from London on the train.
Where do you stand on no deal? May's deal? CU and SM? Genuinely interested, as you don't exhibit the usual Brexiteer tics.
From Aaron's website: Along with 63% of Newcastle residents, I voted to Leave the European Union and I am very dismayed that this town has been represented for so long by an MP determined to overthrow that referendum result. Of course, I recognise that as your MP I would be representing everyone in the constituency, but on both a local and national level we simply must deliver what the people voted for....
Which doesn't exactly answer your questions, but gives some hints.
Probably missed it but just wondering how your wife is doing? Did she opt for a treatment plan?
Thanks for asking, mate. She declined the chemotherapy plan. It's been quite a journey, but she is in a good mental place and doing really well. She has just started radio therapy and will have hormone treatment afterwards. Just have to move on and get on with whatever life lobs at us. It has at least given us impetus to do things that we want/need/should have done.
Best wishes to you both. In my experience of radiotherapy (for prostate cancer) the worst part of radiotherapy is the requirement for daily attendance. When I at least actually got there everyone was very supportive, and, as I saw most of the same people each appointment, it was a bit like a club. The unpleasant side effects.... tiredness etc...... take a while to wear off, too. So again, best wishes to you both.
So IF the Conservatives lose a load of seats and Labour do too (as Prof Curtis seems to suggest) and both Bozo and Mr Thicky stand down, who from both the two main parties are likely to become an acceptable leader for the LDs to either go into coalition with, or provide C&S?
I have long thought matt hancock is not just untrustworthy but more than that his whole body language and facial expression give him away! You watch him and think that man is not on the level and he is a stranger to the truth...
Totally agree. He has the aura of a man who will advise an acquaintance who has just received their redundancy money of a 'fabulous opportunity in Lithuanian real estate'.
The amazing thing about Matt Hancock is how BAD he is at being the snake oil salesman he so clearly wants to be. He'd advise the acquaintance whilst stammering, sweating, and blinking 13 times a second. I don't see why the Tories put him in to bat on things.
So IF the Conservatives lose a load of seats and Labour do too (as Prof Curtis seems to suggest) and both Bozo and Mr Thicky stand down, who from both the two main parties are likely to become an acceptable leader for the LDs to either go into coalition with, or provide C&S?
The LDs will only back a strong remainer which narrows the field
That Cambridge poll doesn't bode well for the Trots
I had to chuckle during the Canadian general election. There are not one, but two communist parties of Canada. Apparently they had a massive falling out. So now there is the Communist Party of Canada and the Marxist-Leninist Party of Canada. Talk about splitting the vote.
Only 2? There's normally half a dozen or so in any country.
Canada has probably kept it down to the main split of being Tankies or not being Tankies.
The fringes are normally fairly fragmented.
If a major party (i.e. one with elected MPs) split, that's a huge headache for them - particularly with FPTP but often with other electoral systems too (e.g. due to thresholds).
If you don't have elected representatives and have no serious prospect of getting them, it doesn't matter anywhere near as much. You may as well go for total ideological purity at that point, and it all gets a bit Judean People's Front.
Anyone prepared to walk away from a big tent party with the potential for government in favour of a small party is already self-selected to choose principle over compromise.
Therefore it's surprising that, say, the Greens don't seem to suffer from splits to anything like the degree of the far-left groupuscles.
I'd be delighted to meet pb friends in person if anyone can make it - it's in the north of the West Midlands and yet only 90 mins from London on the train.
I'd be delighted to meet pb friends in person if anyone can make it - it's in the north of the West Midlands and yet only 90 mins from London on the train.
Where do you stand on no deal? May's deal? CU and SM? Genuinely interested, as you don't exhibit the usual Brexiteer tics.
From Aaron's website: Along with 63% of Newcastle residents, I voted to Leave the European Union and I am very dismayed that this town has been represented for so long by an MP determined to overthrow that referendum result. Of course, I recognise that as your MP I would be representing everyone in the constituency, but on both a local and national level we simply must deliver what the people voted for....
Which doesn't exactly answer your questions, but gives some hints.
That's very soft-pedal, and required in a strong leave seat as a Tory candidate. I am even more intrigued.
"It's hard to equate the polls with anything but a clear Tory majority, but where do they win the seats? ... "It all suggests to me a small advance by Boris and maybe a small overall majority, but far too unpredictable to wager large sums on."
I`m holding off betting too. We don`t yet know the extent of BXP involvement. If Farage puts up a candidate in every constituency the Tories are in big trouble IMO.
As I`ve pointed out before, it would be a supreme irony if Farage puts Corbyn in Downing Street and Brexit gets cancelled via a second referendum.
So IF the Conservatives lose a load of seats and Labour do too (as Prof Curtis seems to suggest) and both Bozo and Mr Thicky stand down, who from both the two main parties are likely to become an acceptable leader for the LDs to either go into coalition with, or provide C&S?
The LDs will only back a strong remainer which narrows the field
Rules out most of the Tories then. Who could command respect across Labour and is a remainer?
The Tory strategy is very high risk: potentially sacrifice Guildford, Wimbledon and Putney in order to win Workington, Bishop Auckland and Barrow & Furness.
"It's hard to equate the polls with anything but a clear Tory majority, but where do they win the seats? ... "It all suggests to me a small advance by Boris and maybe a small overall majority, but far too unpredictable to wager large sums on."
I`m holding off betting too. We don`t yet know the extent of BXP involvement. If Farage puts up a candidate in every constituency the Tories are in big trouble IMO.
As I`ve pointed out before, it would be a supreme irony if Farage puts Corbyn in Downing Street and Brexit gets cancelled via a second referendum
The Tory strategy is very high risk: potentially sacrifice Guildford, Wimbledon and Putney in order to win Workington, Bishop Auckland and Barrow & Furness.
If its a good night they'll probably win them all. A bad night and they'll lose them all.
What a stupid tweet. It is like asking if we will see a fax salesman in cabinet.
You will restart the fireplace salesman meme if you are not careful.
As an aside, Churchill, Attlee, Eden and Macmillan were four successive prime ministers who had fought on the Western Front in the First World War. Something else you no longer see in Cabinet.
Heath and Healey had distinguished WWII records as well. Tony Benn, as 16 year old, joined the Home Guard.
So IF the Conservatives lose a load of seats and Labour do too (as Prof Curtis seems to suggest) and both Bozo and Mr Thicky stand down, who from both the two main parties are likely to become an acceptable leader for the LDs to either go into coalition with, or provide C&S?
The LDs will only back a strong remainer which narrows the field
Rules out most of the Tories then. Who could command respect across Labour and is a remainer?
I keep coming back to Starmer, who would not get the nod from the membership, momentum, or the politburo.
So IF the Conservatives lose a load of seats and Labour do too (as Prof Curtis seems to suggest) and both Bozo and Mr Thicky stand down, who from both the two main parties are likely to become an acceptable leader for the LDs to either go into coalition with, or provide C&S?
The LDs will only back a strong remainer which narrows the field
Just thinking when our first Kaboom might happen...
You got any holiday's booked before between now and 12th Mike?
So IF the Conservatives lose a load of seats and Labour do too (as Prof Curtis seems to suggest) and both Bozo and Mr Thicky stand down, who from both the two main parties are likely to become an acceptable leader for the LDs to either go into coalition with, or provide C&S?
The LDs will only back a strong remainer which narrows the field
Rules out most of the Tories then. Who could command respect across Labour and is a remainer?
I keep coming back to Starmer, who would not get the nod from the membership, momentum, or the politburo.
Nigel_Foremain said: "So IF the Conservatives lose a load of seats and Labour do too (as Prof Curtis seems to suggest) and both Bozo and Mr Thicky stand down, who from both the two main parties are likely to become an acceptable leader for the LDs to either go into coalition with, or provide C&S?"
"The LDs will only back a strong remainer which narrows the field"
If, as I suspect, Tories win most seats but no majority (and DUP not on hand to help) then we are left with either a Labour government (in coalition or C&S with LDs and SNP) (unlikely) or another GE (pointless) or a GoNU.
I`m beginiing to think that the outcome of the GE will be a GoNU, headed by Corbyn, with a 2nd referendeum in the short term.
The Tory strategy is very high risk: potentially sacrifice Guildford, Wimbledon and Putney in order to win Workington, Bishop Auckland and Barrow & Furness.
I don't see Guildford as a risk. But the others yes.
What a stupid tweet. It is like asking if we will see a fax salesman in cabinet.
You will restart the fireplace salesman meme if you are not careful.
As an aside, Churchill, Attlee, Eden and Macmillan were four successive prime ministers who had fought on the Western Front in the First World War. Something else you no longer see in Cabinet.
Heath and Healey had distinguished WWII records as well. Tony Benn, as 16 year old, joined the Home Guard.
The Tory strategy is very high risk: potentially sacrifice Guildford, Wimbledon and Putney in order to win Workington, Bishop Auckland and Barrow & Furness.
Whilst being led by old Etonians.....it might well work but only because of Corbyn.
So when this GE is over, and IF there is still no majority in parliament in favour of leaving, can Leavers please accept that the shaky mandate they had in 2016 is no more and please just shut TFU and go away! 😂😂
So IF the Conservatives lose a load of seats and Labour do too (as Prof Curtis seems to suggest) and both Bozo and Mr Thicky stand down, who from both the two main parties are likely to become an acceptable leader for the LDs to either go into coalition with, or provide C&S?
The LDs will only back a strong remainer which narrows the field
Rules out most of the Tories then. Who could command respect across Labour and is a remainer?
I keep coming back to Starmer, who would not get the nod from the membership, momentum, or the politburo.
Wrong gender. My guess would be Emily Thornberry perhaps?
So when this GE is over, and IF there is still no majority in parliament in favour of leaving, can Leavers please accept that the shaky mandate they had in 2016 is no more and please just shut TFU and go away! 😂😂
Nope, if the Lib Dems and SNP dont have a majority its safe to say there is no mandate to remain.
So IF the Conservatives lose a load of seats and Labour do too (as Prof Curtis seems to suggest) and both Bozo and Mr Thicky stand down, who from both the two main parties are likely to become an acceptable leader for the LDs to either go into coalition with, or provide C&S?
The LDs will only back a strong remainer which narrows the field
Rules out most of the Tories then. Who could command respect across Labour and is a remainer?
I keep coming back to Starmer, who would not get the nod from the membership, momentum, or the politburo.
Thornberry looks possible to me.
Point. Being a woman will undoubtedly help her cause, too.
The Tory strategy is very high risk: potentially sacrifice Guildford, Wimbledon and Putney in order to win Workington, Bishop Auckland and Barrow & Furness.
I don't see Guildford as a risk. But the others yes.
So when this GE is over, and IF there is still no majority in parliament in favour of leaving, can Leavers please accept that the shaky mandate they had in 2016 is no more and please just shut TFU and go away! 😂😂
Nope, if the Lib Dems and SNP dont have a majority its safe to say there is no mandate to remain.
I think it depends on how many remainy Tories and Labour MPs there are. I mean, if they are still elected when everyone knows they are not leavers this must say a lot n'est pas?
What a stupid tweet. It is like asking if we will see a fax salesman in cabinet.
You will restart the fireplace salesman meme if you are not careful.
As an aside, Churchill, Attlee, Eden and Macmillan were four successive prime ministers who had fought on the Western Front in the First World War. Something else you no longer see in Cabinet.
Heath and Healey had distinguished WWII records as well. Tony Benn, as 16 year old, joined the Home Guard.
Tony Benn flew bombers, didn't he?
No, Spitfires, but I don't think he ever did in combat. According to Wikipedia he joined up as an A/c2, wasn't commissioned for a couple of years. I think his elder brother flew bombers.
The Tory strategy is very high risk: potentially sacrifice Guildford, Wimbledon and Putney in order to win Workington, Bishop Auckland and Barrow & Furness.
Whilst being led by old Etonians.....it might well work but only because of Corbyn.
I dont think it will work. It all comes down to party machines. The Tories have had years of decline. Labour membership in contrast is half a million. Added to which some of the places the Tories want to win with high Leave votes are not the sort of places Tories from safe Tory seats will feel comfortable visiting especially in the dark. I know Tories on here dont want to hear the sentiments i advocate but i think this election in december could backfire
The Tory strategy is very high risk: potentially sacrifice Guildford, Wimbledon and Putney in order to win Workington, Bishop Auckland and Barrow & Furness.
I don't see Guildford as a risk. But the others yes.
Guildford is a risk.
The fact the LDs won it in 2001 means it isn't the safe Tory seat that some believe.
I've just tried out the tactical voting website. I was recommended to vote LD even though the result last time was as follows: Con 64%, Lab 29%, LD 5%, Green 3%.
I got vote Lib Dem in Bognor Regis and Littlehampton which had a result of Con 59 Lab 25 Lib Dem 6.5
I haven't visited Bognor for many years - why would you? But Littlehampton has a fair bit of conspicuous Labour Party activity. I only know one person who lives there though and they aren't political at all so not much help in assessing what it is like on the ground. But seaside seats don't tend to have strong loyalties and are amenable to campaigning. There might be some surprises along the south coast.
I've just tried out the tactical voting website. I was recommended to vote LD even though the result last time was as follows: Con 64%, Lab 29%, LD 5%, Green 3%.
The GE17 baseline is totally irrelevant. That was then this is now and look at more recent election data.
Also it’s not just a mathematical exercise - a candidate has to sign up to their anti-Brexit pledge in order to be recommended.
I don’t know much about this organisation but I see that it is led by a Labour peer.
I can see us ending up with a batch of competing tactical voting sites.
Thankfully she only has 541 twitter followers so I can't see too many gullible sorts encountering her nonsense.
You support Brexit and Boris Johnson and you call others "gullible". I admire your chutzpah! 😂😂😂😂
Oh dear, I was wondering where the forum idiot had got to, welcome Nigel!
It is called humour. Recognise that it is lacking in many leavers, particularly at the greater end of the gullibility spectrum, such as your good self. Mind you it must be a lovely world to live in where you can be so trusting in someone such as Boris Johnson, and still believe in fairy tales such as Brexit and Father Christmas. I almost envy you.
The Tory strategy is very high risk: potentially sacrifice Guildford, Wimbledon and Putney in order to win Workington, Bishop Auckland and Barrow & Furness.
I don't see Guildford as a risk. But the others yes.
Guildford is a risk.
I expect the Lib Dems to make very little headway in their old strongholds in the South West, but to do far better down the M3 and M4 corridors.
Do the Greens recommend their voters go to the Lib Dems or do they just not contest the seat and say nothing .
I think regardless this is a good move by the Lib Dems , it’s likely that the green vote has large variations between constituencies, take for example the Cambridge poll .
In some seats they might be pulling 10% and others very much lower .
The word seems to be that in about seventy seats there will be one Remain Alliance candidate, mostly LibDem but with a mix of Greens and PC, with the other parties not standing. There is also a suggestion that a few strong remain Labour candidates/MPs might be given a free run.
Comments
I believe he's quite fond of his Churchilliana ?
What a stupid tweet. It is like asking if we will see a fax salesman in cabinet.
Do the Greens recommend their voters go to the Lib Dems or do they just not contest the seat and say nothing .
I think regardless this is a good move by the Lib Dems , it’s likely that the green vote has large variations between constituencies, take for example the Cambridge poll .
In some seats they might be pulling 10% and others very much lower .
I simply could not imagine the reaction if he were to scarper.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-50228611
The consolidation in the car space has been quite incredible over the past 10 or so years. How many car companies that produce at real scale these days? 10?
Lumpectomy and radiotherapy followed by five years of hormone tratment is the treatment regimen my mum had for stage one one breast cancer in 2013. She's six years cancer-free now.
Hope her treatment goes well and keep us in touch with her progress.
Amazingly enough it was produced by a Conservative.
He has alsorts of views on the civil service, role of HoC etc etc. The public need to know what they are and what will happen.
Good morning all - if anyone wants to help my campaign in Newcastle-under-Lyme, either in person or by donating, please take a look here: https://www.aaronbell.org.uk/support-aarons-campaign
I'd be delighted to meet pb friends in person if anyone can make it - it's in the north of the West Midlands and yet only 90 mins from London on the train.
www.facebook.com/AaronBell4NUL
www.twitter.com/AaronBell4NUL
Con 59
Lab 25
Lib Dem 6.5
in 2010 - Uxbridge was 18 percentage points more Conservative than the nation
in 2015 - Uxbridge was 17 percentage points more Conservative than the nation
in 2017 - Uxbridge was 9 percentage points more Conservative than the nation
So there has been a move away from the Tories. Even if there was a similar shift to last time then Uxbridge would still be 1 point more Conservative than the nation.
It is possible that Boris loses Uxbridge but in that case he will also have lost the election. I don't see it is remotely credible that Boris wins the election and loses his own seat.
LD it is.
https://twitter.com/LauraHutch_Dods/status/1189498841738948610
You can make an argument that seats like Dewsbury will return to the Tory fold (last won in 2010).
After that it becomes more tricky but you can see a path through seats like Penistone and Stocksbridge and Wakefield (though I have my doubts on the latter because it’s a perennial ‘possible Tory gain’ that never seems to go anywhere.
That’s just some off the top of my head, though I really do agree it’s going to be tough and I can’t see them all falling in an all conquering blue wave.
Quite admirable.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/30/no-problem-at-all-new-zealanders-praise-englands-response-to-all-blacks-haka
With Boris, it never stopped.
Only our naive or, more likely, dissembling politicians think otherwise. If you think Hancock or Johnson will stand up to the US on this, I have several bridges to sell you.
As an aside, Churchill, Attlee, Eden and Macmillan were four successive prime ministers who had fought on the Western Front in the First World War. Something else you no longer see in Cabinet.
Where do you stand on no deal? May's deal? CU and SM? Genuinely interested, as you don't exhibit the usual Brexiteer tics.
In reality, there's minimal prospect of the Tories losing that seat, but if they did it'd be to the Lib Dems, not Labour, notwithstanding the 2017 result.
Arun District Council had elections this year and returned 22 Lib Dems, 21 Tories, and a sole Labour councillor.
In an election where the Lib Dems are polling two to three times their 2017 total, Labour are substantially down, and the Brexit Party are a factor, the 2017 results aren't, I suspect,a great guide.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/10/30/business/corporate-business/hitachi-honda-auto-parts-merger/#.XblwuC10cW8
Herding together to weather the coming electrical storm.... It will transform the industry, and an awful lot of what goes into cars today will simply be obsoleted.
I'll be rooting for you, having lived there in the mid-60s.
Seems to indicate that LibDems will find this GE tougher than I thought.
https://twitter.com/JenWilliamsMEN/status/1189472913289822209
1) The polls have Labour on barely half what they were on in 2017
2) Those votes must be lost somewhere. Unless they are ALL lost in hopeless seats for the Party, they have to be lost in winnable seats.
3) So Labour will get thoroughly thrashed if the latest polls are at all reflected in the final result.
4) The Lib Dem vote is still distributed fairly inefficiently, so it is unlikely that they will gain enough seats to offset the Labour collapse.
5) The Brexit Party seems to be having an existential crisis at the moment, with many of its members saying that the BJ deal is as good as they'll get.
Of course all this can change quickly and the polls have a dismal record in the last few elections, but at the moment, the Conservatives have reason to be cautiously optimistic.
Along with 63% of Newcastle residents, I voted to Leave the European Union and I am very dismayed that this town has been represented for so long by an MP determined to overthrow that referendum result. Of course, I recognise that as your MP I would be representing everyone in the constituency, but on both a local and national level we simply must deliver what the people voted for....
Which doesn't exactly answer your questions, but gives some hints.
The unpleasant side effects.... tiredness etc...... take a while to wear off, too.
So again, best wishes to you both.
Therefore it's surprising that, say, the Greens don't seem to suffer from splits to anything like the degree of the far-left groupuscles.
Come on, pollsters, get it together.
"It's hard to equate the polls with anything but a clear Tory majority, but where do they win the seats? ... "It all suggests to me a small advance by Boris and maybe a small overall majority, but far too unpredictable to wager large sums on."
I`m holding off betting too. We don`t yet know the extent of BXP involvement. If Farage puts up a candidate in every constituency the Tories are in big trouble IMO.
As I`ve pointed out before, it would be a supreme irony if Farage puts Corbyn in Downing Street and Brexit gets cancelled via a second referendum.
https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/1189492135038537728
You got any holiday's booked before between now and 12th Mike?
Nigel_Foremain said:
"So IF the Conservatives lose a load of seats and Labour do too (as Prof Curtis seems to suggest) and both Bozo and Mr Thicky stand down, who from both the two main parties are likely to become an acceptable leader for the LDs to either go into coalition with, or provide C&S?"
"The LDs will only back a strong remainer which narrows the field"
If, as I suspect, Tories win most seats but no majority (and DUP not on hand to help) then we are left with either a Labour government (in coalition or C&S with LDs and SNP) (unlikely) or another GE (pointless) or a GoNU.
I`m beginiing to think that the outcome of the GE will be a GoNU, headed by Corbyn, with a 2nd referendeum in the short term.
The polls could shift before polling day, but I'd suggest it's likely to be better than many tactical vote arguments with that methodology.
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1189506765462921216
Yes - I share Dan Hodge`s view.
I can`t see LP getting over 200
I can`t see LDs getting over 40
I can`t see BXP winning a seat
This should make this a shoe-in for the Tories, but I can`t see them getting a majority either!
Survival of the shittest
I don’t know much about this organisation but I see that it is led by a Labour peer.
I can see us ending up with a batch of competing tactical voting sites.
The word seems to be that in about seventy seats there will be one Remain Alliance candidate, mostly LibDem but with a mix of Greens and PC, with the other parties not standing. There is also a suggestion that a few strong remain Labour candidates/MPs might be given a free run.