One fantastic bet I have seen is the 10/11 return (Ladbrokes) on Conservatives to have a 30-40% vote share. At the moment I think only 1 of the last 30 polls has been below 30% and 1 has been 40% exactly.
I really find it hard to believe they will poll sub 30% unless BXP storms this election, but I also think over 40% (though more possible) is going to prove very tricky as they will be required to squeeze BXP into single figures and attract a lot of remain Tories who might flirt with the Libs. At the moment the Tory poll average is slap bang in the middle of this bracket.
One of the obvious problems for the Tories is what is known as the tribalism of the Labour vote in the north of England. But I can't help wondering whether Dominic Cummings has come up with a cunning plan to try and circumvent that problem. Knowing him, he's probably got a few ideas about it.
When it comes to campaigning Dominic Cummings has no equal.
I'm not convinced at all by this. It's one thing winning a referendum by promises to hose money at the NHS and race-baiting. In a general election, the Conservatives need to win constituency by constituency without a local coalition uniting behind a particular candidate. His campaigning approach is not well-suited to that.
Cummings only needs 35% even 30%+ for a Tory majority under FPTP, he needed 50%+ for a Leave majority in the referendum
I thought you would be appalled at the prospect of an elective dictatorship based on just 30+% of the vote.
I though you believed in the "will of the people" or is that only just when it suits you?
One fantastic bet I have seen is the 10/11 return (Ladbrokes) on Conservatives to have a 30-40% vote share. At the moment I think only 1 of the last 30 polls has been below 30% and 1 has been 40% exactly.
I really find it hard to believe they will poll sub 30% unless BXP storms this election, but I also think over 40% (though more possible) is going to prove very tricky as they will be required to squeeze BXP into single figures and attract a lot of remain Tories who might flirt with the Libs. At the moment the Tory poll average is slap bang in the middle of this bracket.
One of the obvious problems for the Tories is what is known as the tribalism of the Labour vote in the north of England. But I can't help wondering whether Dominic Cummings has come up with a cunning plan to try and circumvent that problem. Knowing him, he's probably got a few ideas about it.
When it comes to campaigning Dominic Cummings has no equal.
I'm not convinced at all by this. It's one thing winning a referendum by promises to hose money at the NHS and race-baiting. In a general election, the Conservatives need to win constituency by constituency without a local coalition uniting behind a particular candidate. His campaigning approach is not well-suited to that.
Cummings only needs 35% even 30%+ for a Tory majority under FPTP, he needed 50%+ for a Leave majority in the referendum
I thought you would be appalled at the prospect of an elective dictatorship based on just 30+% of the vote.
I though you believed in the "will of the people" or is that only just when it suits you?
Blair got a 66 seat majority on 35%. No-one on the Left then was bitching.
Corbyn is not an active anti-semite - he hates capital which so often is Jewish. He hates western imperialism which is represented by Israel in the ME. But he associates with people who are virulent anti-semites and is happy to defend AS murals and march behind AS banners - anti-semitic actions which make him a passive anti-semite not an active one.
Its the same with Johnson. He has said horrendous things about muslims, afro-caribbeans, LGBT etc etc. I don't he is openly racist or homophobic he just makes comments which are racist and honophobic. My Gillian Duffy reference I understood well - she is a proper Lancashire woman and like so many from that part of the world (my dad being an example) she makes comments which are inadvertantly rather than overtly prejudiced.
I don't expect AS / Islamophobia to be much of an issue in this campaign. I do expect foreigners and migration to be an issue though - the perceived damage of mass migration hasn't gone away. And in the campaign I expect a pivot on "get Brexit done" - a very successful slogan which unfortunately only exposes that the Johnson deal doesn't deliver and only Farage's clean break does...
That's the best little synopsis of Corbyn and the AS thing I've read on here, RP. Well done.
This is something that hasn't surfaced on here much but has been going through my mind a lot in recent days. There's an old mantra that parties at internal war lose elections. The Conservatives are NOT united and they are certainly NOT united under Johnson. Anyone trying to gloss it and tell you otherwise is living on another planet. Beneath the surface is a massive deep fissure running through this party.
I will make this one prediction now: that disunity will show through despite the best efforts of Cummings to cover it up.
Depends how the anti-Brexit and independent Tories play it. If Hammond, Clark, Stewart, Major, Heseltine etc publicly attack Bozo throughout the campaign it will not help the Tories. Zealots don't like them but a lot of Tory-inclined voters do. Also depends on how hard Farage goes on attacking the deal
O/T Is Bozo going to stick with Patel as HS and Raab as FS if he gets a majority? I doubt anyone really believes those two were put in place for any other reason than to shore up the ERG vote. 5 years with those two i place doesn't bear thinking about. Again I think Bozo has created another hostage to fortune for short-term gain.
I still expect him to come out of it with a small majority. My hope is that there are enough anti-No Deal Tories elected to ensure he can't rat on us and go down that route.
BiB - That might help the Tories win over those thinking of voting for the Brexit Party.
And the positive thing for Bozza is that if Bebb, Boles, Grieve etc stand as indies they will take more votes off the Lib Dems than they will the Tories and could be a help. If the Spartans had lost the whip and stood as spoilers it would split the Tory vote.
I expect Hammond etc to attack Boris during the campaign but I think most voters will see it as sour grapes given the alternative is Jezza PM. It would be far more effective if Boris was up against a centre left candidate like Starmer who ex Tory rebels could make a stronger argument for.
The Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru and Green party are set to unveil a general election pact in which the parties would stand aside in certain seats to boost each others’ chances. An announcement is expected next week.
The three-party process is taking place under the umbrella of a grouping called Unite to Remain, whose directors include Jim Knight, a former Labour MP who is now a peer, and Jessica Simor, a prominent remain-supporting QC.
When the campaign was formally launched earlier in the month, the Lib Dems’ Heidi Allen, who announced on Tuesday she was standing down as an MP, said it hoped to cover 70 constituencies. This would involve the three parties standing down for each other and, in some places, not standing against strongly remain Labour candidates.
There is only one winner from this "Remain Alliance".
No doubt the LibDems will be sending Plaid Cymru and the Greens to the heavily Brexit-voting Welsh Valleys seats to explain to them that they are thick and their votes should be ignored.
This unite to remain campaign could quite easily backfire with the public.
Corbyn is not an active anti-semite - he hates capital which so often is Jewish. He hates western imperialism which is represented by Israel in the ME. But he associates with people who are virulent anti-semites and is happy to defend AS murals and march behind AS banners - anti-semitic actions which make him a passive anti-semite not an active one.
Its the same with Johnson. He has said horrendous things about muslims, afro-caribbeans, LGBT etc etc. I don't he is openly racist or homophobic he just makes comments which are racist and honophobic. My Gillian Duffy reference I understood well - she is a proper Lancashire woman and like so many from that part of the world (my dad being an example) she makes comments which are inadvertantly rather than overtly prejudiced.
I don't expect AS / Islamophobia to be much of an issue in this campaign. I do expect foreigners and migration to be an issue though - the perceived damage of mass migration hasn't gone away. And in the campaign I expect a pivot on "get Brexit done" - a very successful slogan which unfortunately only exposes that the Johnson deal doesn't deliver and only Farage's clean break does...
AS will be an issue in a handful of key seats, though - East Ren, Bury South and Finchley & Golders Green are a write off for Labour.
I am very cautious over this election and it could see Boris with a modest majority but also as the largest party checkmated by a remain majority leading to a referendum in summer 2020
I hear this morning that Boris is going to paint an optismitic can do narrative promising brexit will happen on the 31st December and on the 1st January the domestic policies on the NHS, policing, education and the rest will receive the full attention of his government.
This is nonsense on stilts, I’m afraid. Departure on 31/12 after an election on 12/12 means virtually no Parliamentary scrutiny of the WAIB. Both pathetic and dangerous for such an important piece of legislation.
And the minute we’re out the focus will have to be on what happens at the end of the transition period, a decision on which will need to be made by July. And if no decision is made - or no extension of the transition agreed and, remember, this will be a much more complicated decision than an Article 50 extension - then there will need to be planning for what happens when it ends - another form of No Deal planning - what tariffs, on which sectors, at what rate, what data sharing agreements, etc etc - all the many decisions which will need to be taken as a consequence of becoming a third country at the end of December 2020.
The idea that Brexit can be put behind us and the government can happily focus on joyful internal matters is for the birds.
But, hey, this is the season for fairy stories so that’s what Boris is counting on. The reality will hit him - and us - later.
This is something that hasn't surfaced on here much but has been going through my mind a lot in recent days. There's an old mantra that parties at internal war lose elections. The Conservatives are NOT united and they are certainly NOT united under Johnson. Anyone trying to gloss it and tell you otherwise is living on another planet. Beneath the surface is a massive deep fissure running through this party.
I will make this one prediction now: that disunity will show through despite the best efforts of Cummings to cover it up.
Depends how the anti-Brexit and independent Tories play it. If Hammond, Clark, Stewart, Major, Heseltine etc publicly attack Bozo throughout the campaign it will not help the Tories. Zealots don't like them but a lot of Tory-inclined voters do. Also depends on how hard Farage goes on attacking the deal
O/T Is Bozo going to stick with Patel as HS and Raab as FS if he gets a majority? I doubt anyone really believes those two were put in place for any other reason than to shore up the ERG vote. 5 years with those two i place doesn't bear thinking about. Again I think Bozo has created another hostage to fortune for short-term gain.
I still expect him to come out of it with a small majority. My hope is that there are enough anti-No Deal Tories elected to ensure he can't rat on us and go down that route.
BiB - That might help the Tories win over those thinking of voting for the Brexit Party.
I suspect the remaining BXP vote is anti-Tory. It's the ex-Labour element.. With Conservatives moving further to the right (Patel and Raab in 2 0of 3 big offices of state) I don't see them switching to the Tories and I think that is why the BXP vote won't be squeezed much more than it is, particularly if Farage goes on the all-out offensive against Bozo's BINO.
I hope the anti Tory vote rememberers how to organise itself effectively. If not, 1983 beckons.
Precisely. We can all help if we focus on seats we have a decent chance of winning.
And what do you use to make that judgement? Using what happened in 2017 as the baseline might not be giving you the correct picture
Nick has already said that Labour is fighting a defensive campaign focused on holding the seats it already has.
Really? I missed that.
That doesn't really scream confidence on their part, especially as they are highly likely to get wiped out in Scotland (except for Ian Murray) if the European elections are an indicator.
Wales will be the real shocker for Labour this time. Another one-time fiefdom falls.....
The Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru and Green party are set to unveil a general election pact in which the parties would stand aside in certain seats to boost each others’ chances. An announcement is expected next week.
The three-party process is taking place under the umbrella of a grouping called Unite to Remain, whose directors include Jim Knight, a former Labour MP who is now a peer, and Jessica Simor, a prominent remain-supporting QC.
When the campaign was formally launched earlier in the month, the Lib Dems’ Heidi Allen, who announced on Tuesday she was standing down as an MP, said it hoped to cover 70 constituencies. This would involve the three parties standing down for each other and, in some places, not standing against strongly remain Labour candidates.
There is only one winner from this "Remain Alliance".
No doubt the LibDems will be sending Plaid Cymru and the Greens to the heavily Brexit-voting Welsh Valleys seats to explain to them that they are thick and their votes should be ignored.
Well I doubt they would say that would they, you are just being silly. One doesn't necessarily have to suggest that just because someone made a poor voting choice due to misleading info that they are necessarily thick.
As for people being ignored, that has been the position of Brexiteers; that in spite of their very marginal "victory" in the referendum, they should ride roughshod over the 48% who though it a dumb idea. Brexiteers only have themselves to blame. If Brexit never happens it will serve the extremist tossers in that movement right. Shame the whole charade ever happened
Corbyn is not an active anti-semite - he hates capital which so often is Jewish. He hates western imperialism which is represented by Israel in the ME. But he associates with people who are virulent anti-semites and is happy to defend AS murals and march behind AS banners - anti-semitic actions which make him a passive anti-semite not an active one.
Its the same with Johnson. He has said horrendous things about muslims, afro-caribbeans, LGBT etc etc. I don't he is openly racist or homophobic he just makes comments which are racist and honophobic. My Gillian Duffy reference I understood well - she is a proper Lancashire woman and like so many from that part of the world (my dad being an example) she makes comments which are inadvertantly rather than overtly prejudiced.
I don't expect AS / Islamophobia to be much of an issue in this campaign. I do expect foreigners and migration to be an issue though - the perceived damage of mass migration hasn't gone away. And in the campaign I expect a pivot on "get Brexit done" - a very successful slogan which unfortunately only exposes that the Johnson deal doesn't deliver and only Farage's clean break does...
That's the best little synopsis of Corbyn and the AS thing I've read on here, RP. Well done.
I would have given it half a 'like'. I tried that mural on several Jewish and gentile friends including my daughter. None got the idea that the bankers were supposed to be Jewish. I'm afraid it was just Guido mischief making.
The Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru and Green party are set to unveil a general election pact in which the parties would stand aside in certain seats to boost each others’ chances. An announcement is expected next week.
The three-party process is taking place under the umbrella of a grouping called Unite to Remain, whose directors include Jim Knight, a former Labour MP who is now a peer, and Jessica Simor, a prominent remain-supporting QC.
When the campaign was formally launched earlier in the month, the Lib Dems’ Heidi Allen, who announced on Tuesday she was standing down as an MP, said it hoped to cover 70 constituencies. This would involve the three parties standing down for each other and, in some places, not standing against strongly remain Labour candidates.
There is only one winner from this "Remain Alliance".
No doubt the LibDems will be sending Plaid Cymru and the Greens to the heavily Brexit-voting Welsh Valleys seats to explain to them that they are thick and their votes should be ignored.
This unite to remain campaign could quite easily backfire with the public.
It seems quite sensible to maximize your chances and not split the votes . If you’re not a Remainer then it might annoy you but clearly the point is this isn’t aimed at Leavers !
This is something that hasn't surfaced on here much but has been going through my mind a lot in recent days. There's an old mantra that parties at internal war lose elections. The Conservatives are NOT united and they are certainly NOT united under Johnson. Anyone trying to gloss it and tell you otherwise is living on another planet. Beneath the surface is a massive deep fissure running through this party.
I will make this one prediction now: that disunity will show through despite the best efforts of Cummings to cover it up.
Depends how the anti-Brexit and independent Tories play it. If Hammond, Clark, Stewart, Major, Heseltine etc publicly attack Bozo throughout the campaign it will not help the Tories. Zealots don't like them but a lot of Tory-inclined voters do. Also depends on how hard Farage goes on attacking the deal
O/T Is Bozo going to stick with Patel as HS and Raab as FS if he gets a majority? I doubt anyone really believes those two were put in place for any other reason than to shore up the ERG vote. 5 years with those two i place doesn't bear thinking about. Again I think Bozo has created another hostage to fortune for short-term gain.
I still expect him to come out of it with a small majority. My hope is that there are enough anti-No Deal Tories elected to ensure he can't rat on us and go down that route.
BiB - That might help the Tories win over those thinking of voting for the Brexit Party.
I suspect the remaining BXP vote is anti-Tory. It's the ex-Labour element.. With Conservatives moving further to the right (Patel and Raab in 2 0of 3 big offices of state) I don't see them switching to the Tories and I think that is why the BXP vote won't be squeezed much more than it is, particularly if Farage goes on the all-out offensive against Bozo's BINO.
Fair point, I was thinking more those that have already returned to the Tory column might get tempted to go back to Nigel.
One of the obvious problems for the Tories is what is known as the tribalism of the Labour vote in the north of England. But I can't help wondering whether Dominic Cummings has come up with a cunning plan to try and circumvent that problem. Knowing him, he's probably got a few ideas about it.
When it comes to campaigning Dominic Cummings has no equal.
I'm not convinced at all by this. It's one thing winning a referendum by promises to hose money at the NHS and race-baiting. In a general election, the Conservatives need to win constituency by constituency without a local coalition uniting behind a particular candidate. His campaigning approach is not well-suited to that.
Cummings only needs 35% even 30%+ for a Tory majority under FPTP, he needed 50%+ for a Leave majority in the referendum
I thought you would be appalled at the prospect of an elective dictatorship based on just 30+% of the vote.
I though you believed in the "will of the people" or is that only just when it suits you?
Blair got a 66 seat majority on 35%. No-one on the Left then was bitching.
Some of us have been committed to a fair voting system for years irrespective of who benefits from the current archaic system. If we had one now there would be no chance of a Bozo majority.
But there we are, Britain knows best, all the other European countries can see it but we can't, fog in the channel Europe cut off, blah, blah blah.
This is something that hasn't surfaced on here much but has been going through my mind a lot in recent days. There's an old mantra that parties at internal war lose elections. The Conservatives are NOT united and they are certainly NOT united under Johnson. Anyone trying to gloss it and tell you otherwise is living on another planet. Beneath the surface is a massive deep fissure running through this party.
I will make this one prediction now: that disunity will show through despite the best efforts of Cummings to cover it up.
Depends how the anti-Brexit and independent Tories play it. If Hammond, Clark, Stewart, Major, Heseltine etc publicly attack Bozo throughout the campaign it will not help the Tories. Zealots don't like them but a lot of Tory-inclined voters do. Also depends on how hard Farage goes on attacking the deal
O/T Is Bozo going to stick with Patel as HS and Raab as FS if he gets a majority? I doubt anyone really believes those two were put in place for any other reason than to shore up the ERG vote. 5 years with those two i place doesn't bear thinking about. Again I think Bozo has created another hostage to fortune for short-term gain.
I still expect him to come out of it with a small majority. My hope is that there are enough anti-No Deal Tories elected to ensure he can't rat on us and go down that route.
BiB - That might help the Tories win over those thinking of voting for the Brexit Party.
I suspect the remaining BXP vote is anti-Tory. It's the ex-Labour element.. With Conservatives moving further to the right (Patel and Raab in 2 0of 3 big offices of state) I don't see them switching to the Tories and I think that is why the BXP vote won't be squeezed much more than it is, particularly if Farage goes on the all-out offensive against Bozo's BINO.
Fair point, I was thinking more those that have already returned to the Tory column might get tempted to go back to Nigel.
Has anyone heard if Farage is having another go? He isn't standing in Thanet, I see.
This is something that hasn't surfaced on here much but has been going through my mind a lot in recent days. There's an old mantra that parties at internal war lose elections. The Conservatives are NOT united and they are certainly NOT united under Johnson. Anyone trying to gloss it and tell you otherwise is living on another planet. Beneath the surface is a massive deep fissure running through this party.
I will make this one prediction now: that disunity will show through despite the best efforts of Cummings to cover it up.
Depends how the anti-Brexit and independent Tories play it. If Hammond, Clark, Stewart, Major, Heseltine etc publicly attack Bozo throughout the campaign it will not help the Tories. Zealots don't like them but a lot of Tory-inclined voters do. Also depends on how hard Farage goes on attacking the deal
O/T Is Bozo going to stick with Patel as HS and Raab as FS if he gets a majority? I doubt anyone really believes those two were put in place for any other reason than to shore up the ERG vote. 5 years with those two i place doesn't bear thinking about. Again I think Bozo has created another hostage to fortune for short-term gain.
I still expect him to come out of it with a small majority. My hope is that there are enough anti-No Deal Tories elected to ensure he can't rat on us and go down that route.
BiB - That might help the Tories win over those thinking of voting for the Brexit Party.
And the positive thing for Bozza is that if Bebb, Boles, Grieve etc stand as indies they will take more votes off the Lib Dems than they will the Tories and could be a help. If the Spartans had lost the whip and stood as spoilers it would split the Tory vote.
I expect Hammond etc to attack Boris during the campaign but I think most voters will see it as sour grapes given the alternative is Jezza PM. It would be far more effective if Boris was up against a centre left candidate like Starmer who ex Tory rebels could make a stronger argument for.
In Grieve's case at least, the LibDems are giving him a free run
One of the obvious problems for the Tories is what is known as the tribalism of the Labour vote in the north of England. But I can't help wondering whether Dominic Cummings has come up with a cunning plan to try and circumvent that problem. Knowing him, he's probably got a few ideas about it.
When it comes to campaigning Dominic Cummings has no equal.
I'm not convinced at all by this. It's one thing winning a referendum by promises to hose money at the NHS and race-baiting. In a general election, the Conservatives need to win constituency by constituency without a local coalition uniting behind a particular candidate. His campaigning approach is not well-suited to that.
Cummings only needs 35% even 30%+ for a Tory majority under FPTP, he needed 50%+ for a Leave majority in the referendum
I thought you would be appalled at the prospect of an elective dictatorship based on just 30+% of the vote.
I though you believed in the "will of the people" or is that only just when it suits you?
Blair got a 66 seat majority on 35%. No-one on the Left then was bitching.
Some of us have been committed to a fair voting system for years irrespective of who benefits from the current archaic system. If we had one now there would be no chance of a Bozo majority.
But there we are, Britain knows best, all the other European countries can see it but we can't, fog in the channel Europe cut off, blah, blah blah.
It was a huge missed opportunity by Blair, a contender for his second biggest mistake after Iraq.
And in the campaign I expect a pivot on "get Brexit done" - a very successful slogan which unfortunately only exposes that the Johnson deal doesn't deliver and only Farage's clean break does...
Don't agree that this slogan exposes the Johnson deal doesn't deliver. That won't be a commonly held view.
And most voters will be sage enough to know that Farage's "clean break" will still require us to sit down and make thousands of micro-deals/accommodations, before coming up with some longer term trading arrangements with the EU. Boris's Deal jumps through a number of those hoops.
The danger is epitomised by one of @DavidL's posts earlier. Along the lines of "those who are sick to death of Brexit will vote Cons to get it done". Um, no. Those who are sick to death of Brexit will look to their usual party lines and allegiance, imo.
People who are sick to death of Brexit — and there are a lot of them — are going to be absolutely furious when Brexit doesn't go away after the election, no matter what the result is.
Corbyn is not an active anti-semite - he hates capital which so often is Jewish. He hates western imperialism which is represented by Israel in the ME. But he associates with people who are virulent anti-semites and is happy to defend AS murals and march behind AS banners - anti-semitic actions which make him a passive anti-semite not an active one.
Its the same with Johnson. He has said horrendous things about muslims, afro-caribbeans, LGBT etc etc. I don't he is openly racist or homophobic he just makes comments which are racist and honophobic. My Gillian Duffy reference I understood well - she is a proper Lancashire woman and like so many from that part of the world (my dad being an example) she makes comments which are inadvertantly rather than overtly prejudiced.
I don't expect AS / Islamophobia to be much of an issue in this campaign. I do expect foreigners and migration to be an issue though - the perceived damage of mass migration hasn't gone away. And in the campaign I expect a pivot on "get Brexit done" - a very successful slogan which unfortunately only exposes that the Johnson deal doesn't deliver and only Farage's clean break does...
That's the best little synopsis of Corbyn and the AS thing I've read on here, RP. Well done.
I would have given it half a 'like'. I tried that mural on several Jewish and gentile friends including my daughter. None got the idea that the bankers were supposed to be Jewish. I'm afraid it was just Guido mischief making.
Sir John Curtice predicting there will be over 100 seats won by parties other than the Conservatives and Labour could easily be true if the LibDems and Cons pick over the carcass of Labour seats.
Even if he were right, it is not inconsistent with a healthy Tory majority.
I hope the anti Tory vote rememberers how to organise itself effectively. If not, 1983 beckons.
Precisely. We can all help if we focus on seats we have a decent chance of winning.
And what do you use to make that judgement? Using what happened in 2017 as the baseline might not be giving you the correct picture
Nick has already said that Labour is fighting a defensive campaign focused on holding the seats it already has.
Really? I missed that.
That doesn't really scream confidence on their part, especially as they are highly likely to get wiped out in Scotland (except for Ian Murray) if the European elections are an indicator.
Wales will be the real shocker for Labour this time. Another one-time fiefdom falls.....
If CINO Party members really think the valleys will vote Tory they really don't understand Wales or political history, but then, no surprises there!
Corbyn is not an active anti-semite - he hates capital which so often is Jewish. He hates western imperialism which is represented by Israel in the ME. But he associates with people who are virulent anti-semites and is happy to defend AS murals and march behind AS banners - anti-semitic actions which make him a passive anti-semite not an active one.
Its the same with Johnson. He has said horrendous things about muslims, afro-caribbeans, LGBT etc etc. I don't he is openly racist or homophobic he just makes comments which are racist and honophobic. My Gillian Duffy reference I understood well - she is a proper Lancashire woman and like so many from that part of the world (my dad being an example) she makes comments which are inadvertantly rather than overtly prejudiced.
I don't expect AS / Islamophobia to be much of an issue in this campaign. I do expect foreigners and migration to be an issue though - the perceived damage of mass migration hasn't gone away. And in the campaign I expect a pivot on "get Brexit done" - a very successful slogan which unfortunately only exposes that the Johnson deal doesn't deliver and only Farage's clean break does...
Jezza is blinded by his own prejudice. He seems Israel as a racist state who oppresses all its neighbours, and he likes to think he always takes the side of the underdog.
The problem with that is most people who bang on about Zionism etc, aren't simply stating facts e.g. the state of Israel certainly oversteps the mark in terms of settlements and pushing back against protesters. Instead Labour has been infected by anti-semites, who use all the Zionism stuff as cover, but he doesn't see that.
Also, those that defend Jezza, even after all this has blown up and most people who think hmmm I think I better be careful with who I associate, he is still regularly does meet ups with these extremists.
I hope the anti Tory vote rememberers how to organise itself effectively. If not, 1983 beckons.
Precisely. We can all help if we focus on seats we have a decent chance of winning.
And what do you use to make that judgement? Using what happened in 2017 as the baseline might not be giving you the correct picture
Nick has already said that Labour is fighting a defensive campaign focused on holding the seats it already has.
Really? I missed that.
That doesn't really scream confidence on their part, especially as they are highly likely to get wiped out in Scotland (except for Ian Murray) if the European elections are an indicator.
Wales will be the real shocker for Labour this time. Another one-time fiefdom falls.....
If CINO Party members really think the valleys will vote Tory they really don't understand Wales or political history, but then, no surprises there!
Corbyn is not an active anti-semite - he hates capital which so often is Jewish. He hates western imperialism which is represented by Israel in the ME. But he associates with people who are virulent anti-semites and is happy to defend AS murals and march behind AS banners - anti-semitic actions which make him a passive anti-semite not an active one.
Its the same with Johnson. He has said horrendous things about muslims, afro-caribbeans, LGBT etc etc. I don't he is openly racist or homophobic he just makes comments which are racist and honophobic. My Gillian Duffy reference I understood well - she is a proper Lancashire woman and like so many from that part of the world (my dad being an example) she makes comments which are inadvertantly rather than overtly prejudiced.
I don't expect AS / Islamophobia to be much of an issue in this campaign. I do expect foreigners and migration to be an issue though - the perceived damage of mass migration hasn't gone away. And in the campaign I expect a pivot on "get Brexit done" - a very successful slogan which unfortunately only exposes that the Johnson deal doesn't deliver and only Farage's clean break does...
That's the best little synopsis of Corbyn and the AS thing I've read on here, RP. Well done.
It was certainly better than my ramblings, I read this this morning and think it takes the issue further.
And in the campaign I expect a pivot on "get Brexit done" - a very successful slogan which unfortunately only exposes that the Johnson deal doesn't deliver and only Farage's clean break does...
Don't agree that this slogan exposes the Johnson deal doesn't deliver. That won't be a commonly held view.
And most voters will be sage enough to know that Farage's "clean break" will still require us to sit down and make thousands of micro-deals/accommodations, before coming up with some longer term trading arrangements with the EU. Boris's Deal jumps through a number of those hoops.
No it doesn’t. It just kicks the can down the road a few more months. Just like Mrs May.
One of the obvious problems for the Tories is what is known as the tribalism of the Labour vote in the north of England. But I can't help wondering whether Dominic Cummings has come up with a cunning plan to try and circumvent that problem. Knowing him, he's probably got a few ideas about it.
Most of the northern marginal seats the Tories are targeting voted for Thatcher in 1983, they are marginals for a reason
Quite a few didn't: Bishop Auckland, Stockton North, Workington, Wansbeck, Blyth Valley, NW Durham, Sunderland Central, etc. I know most of those are long-shots rather than easy targets.
Of those only Bishop Auckland is even in the top 50 Tory target seats and Workington and Bishop Auckland even in the top 100 Tory target seats, the Tories could still win a comfortable majority falling short in almost all of them
Sadly I can see the Tories gaining Bish this time. Will be a bit much to see a big dollop of blue across County Durham.
This is something that hasn't surfaced on here much but has been going through my mind a lot in recent days. There's an old mantra that parties at internal war lose elections. The Conservatives are NOT united and they are certainly NOT united under Johnson. Anyone trying to gloss it and tell you otherwise is living on another planet. Beneath the surface is a massive deep fissure running through this party.
I will make this one prediction now: that disunity will show through despite the best efforts of Cummings to cover it up.
Depends how the anti-Brexit and independent Tories play it. If Hammond, Clark, Stewart, Major, Heseltine etc publicly attack Bozo throughout the campaign it will not help the Tories. Zealots don't like them but a lot of Tory-inclined voters do. Also depends on how hard Farage goes on attacking the deal
O/T Is Bozo going to stick with Patel as HS and Raab as FS if he gets a majority? I doubt anyone really believes those two were put in place for any other reason than to shore up the ERG vote. 5 years with those two i place doesn't bear thinking about. Again I think Bozo has created another hostage to fortune for short-term gain.
I still expect him to come out of it with a small majority. My hope is that there are enough anti-No Deal Tories elected to ensure he can't rat on us and go down that route.
BiB - That might help the Tories win over those thinking of voting for the Brexit Party.
I suspect the remaining BXP vote is anti-Tory. It's the ex-Labour element.. With Conservatives moving further to the right (Patel and Raab in 2 0of 3 big offices of state) I don't see them switching to the Tories and I think that is why the BXP vote won't be squeezed much more than it is, particularly if Farage goes on the all-out offensive against Bozo's BINO.
Fair point, I was thinking more those that have already returned to the Tory column might get tempted to go back to Nigel.
Has anyone heard if Farage is having another go? He isn't standing in Thanet, I see.
His fragile Mussoliniesque ego probably couldn't stand any more rejection. He will no doubt spend the election saluting himself in front of a mirror dressed as a latter day Oswald Mosely .
Sir John Curtice predicting there will be over 100 seats won by parties other than the Conservatives and Labour could easily be true if the LibDems and Cons pick over the carcass of Labour seats.
Even if he were right, it is not inconsistent with a healthy Tory majority.
I think John Curtice thinks it’s going to be a bad night for the Tories - shocking
One of the obvious problems for the Tories is what is known as the tribalism of the Labour vote in the north of England. But I can't help wondering whether Dominic Cummings has come up with a cunning plan to try and circumvent that problem. Knowing him, he's probably got a few ideas about it.
When it comes to campaigning Dominic Cummings has no equal.
I'm not convinced at all by this. It's one thing winning a referendum by promises to hose money at the NHS and race-baiting. In a general election, the Conservatives need to win constituency by constituency without a local coalition uniting behind a particular candidate. His campaigning approach is not well-suited to that.
Cummings only needs 35% even 30%+ for a Tory majority under FPTP, he needed 50%+ for a Leave majority in the referendum
I thought you would be appalled at the prospect of an elective dictatorship based on just 30+% of the vote.
I though you believed in the "will of the people" or is that only just when it suits you?
Blair got a 66 seat majority on 35%. No-one on the Left then was bitching.
Some of us have been committed to a fair voting system for years irrespective of who benefits from the current archaic system. If we had one now there would be no chance of a Bozo majority.
But there we are, Britain knows best, all the other European countries can see it but we can't, fog in the channel Europe cut off, blah, blah blah.
take back control (with 35% of the vote and a supine rubber stamp parliament)
I hope the anti Tory vote rememberers how to organise itself effectively. If not, 1983 beckons.
Precisely. We can all help if we focus on seats we have a decent chance of winning.
And what do you use to make that judgement? Using what happened in 2017 as the baseline might not be giving you the correct picture
Nick has already said that Labour is fighting a defensive campaign focused on holding the seats it already has.
Really? I missed that.
That doesn't really scream confidence on their part, especially as they are highly likely to get wiped out in Scotland (except for Ian Murray) if the European elections are an indicator.
Wales will be the real shocker for Labour this time. Another one-time fiefdom falls.....
If CINO Party members really think the valleys will vote Tory they really don't understand Wales or political history, but then, no surprises there!
"CINO"? And I suppose that you, having left the Conservative Party, represent its true soul?
This is something that hasn't surfaced on here much but has been going through my mind a lot in recent days. There's an old mantra that parties at internal war lose elections. The Conservatives are NOT united and they are certainly NOT united under Johnson. Anyone trying to gloss it and tell you otherwise is living on another planet. Beneath the surface is a massive deep fissure running through this party.
I will make this one prediction now: that disunity will show through despite the best efforts of Cummings to cover it up.
Depends how the anti-Brexit and independent Tories play it. If Hammond, Clark, Stewart, Major, Heseltine etc publicly attack Bozo throughout the campaign it will not help the Tories. Zealots don't like them but a lot of Tory-inclined voters do. Also depends on how hard Farage goes on attacking the deal
O/T Is Bozo going to stick with Patel as HS and Raab as FS if he gets a majority? I doubt anyone really believes those two were put in place for any other reason than to shore up the ERG vote. 5 years with those two i place doesn't bear thinking about. Again I think Bozo has created another hostage to fortune for short-term gain.
I still expect him to come out of it with a small majority. My hope is that there are enough anti-No Deal Tories elected to ensure he can't rat on us and go down that route.
BiB - That might help the Tories win over those thinking of voting for the Brexit Party.
I suspect the remaining BXP vote is anti-Tory. It's the ex-Labour element.. With Conservatives moving further to the right (Patel and Raab in 2 0of 3 big offices of state) I don't see them switching to the Tories and I think that is why the BXP vote won't be squeezed much more than it is, particularly if Farage goes on the all-out offensive against Bozo's BINO.
Fair point, I was thinking more those that have already returned to the Tory column might get tempted to go back to Nigel.
Has anyone heard if Farage is having another go? He isn't standing in Thanet, I see.
His fragile Mussoliniesque ego probably couldn't stand any more rejection. He will no doubt spend the election saluting himself in front of a mirror dressed as a latter day Oswald Mosely .
Those who think Jezza just didn't see the cartoon was anti-semitic and it is all a Guido smear job. Then last month, Jezza was still proudly doing promos with a Hamas supporter.
He is either so dense that light bends around him and isn't intellectually capable for the job of PM or he doesn't give a shit about this issue, or both.
Wonder what Cummings will put on the side of Boris's battle bus?
“Let’s give the £350 mio a week we give to the EU and spend it on US drug companies instead.”?
Can you explain why the government would seek to pay US drug companies more money for the same medicines albeit non generic. I heard the story yesterday and couldn’t for the life of me think why?
Lib Dems should go with a message of "Day 1: Revoke, Brexit sorted" and play heavily on the idea of a revoke dividend to finance their plans "Boris' deal will cost us £70billion, let's revoke and spend it on the NHS instead" etc. I think their "end this nightmare" message will have a lot of cut through once it becomes clear that Boris' deal is only one more brexit stepping stone stepping stone.
Labour will basically need to ignore brexit as much as possible. Line should be "we will get a jobs first brexit that protects our NHS and let the public decide on it". Always turn the conversation to any other subject. Fear of Boris selling everything to Trump will help them out.
The Tories will do best to try and scare wavering tories and floating voters that Corbyn is going to steal their homes and raise taxes etc. The Boris deal will reassure a lot of LD waverers that No Deal is off the table. Ignore Farage and ig ore Brexit as much as possible. I don't see Tories winning by taking Labour Leave seats, if they win it will be because they hold on to the leafy middle class vote. Best way to do that is go hard on Corbyn will tax and nationalise everything you own. Don't bother with the IRA or Hamas stuff, taxes taxes taxes.
Overall I would guess at Tories hovering just above or below a majority, probably just above, say 329 seats. Think the Boris deal does enough to reassure wavering middle class tories (my mum voted LD in euros but now is backing Boris simply because of fear of Corbyn).
Sir John Curtice predicting there will be over 100 seats won by parties other than the Conservatives and Labour could easily be true if the LibDems and Cons pick over the carcass of Labour seats.
Even if he were right, it is not inconsistent with a healthy Tory majority.
Lib Dem gains will mostly be at the expense of the Conservatives. If they could also make significant gains from Labour they’d be in largest party territory.
Lib Dems should go with a message of "Day 1: Revoke, Brexit sorted" and play heavily on the idea of a revoke dividend to finance their plans "Boris' deal will cost us £70billion, let's revoke and spend it on the NHS instead" etc. I think their "end this nightmare" message will have a lot of cut through once it becomes clear that Boris' deal is only one more brexit stepping stone stepping stone.
Labour will basically need to ignore brexit as much as possible. Line should be "we will get a jobs first brexit that protects our NHS and let the public decide on it". Always turn the conversation to any other subject. Fear of Boris selling everything to Trump will help them out.
The Tories will do best to try and scare wavering tories and floating voters that Corbyn is going to steal their homes and raise taxes etc. The Boris deal will reassure a lot of LD waverers that No Deal is off the table. Ignore Farage and ig ore Brexit as much as possible. I don't see Tories winning by taking Labour Leave seats, if they win it will be because they hold on to the leafy middle class vote. Best way to do that is go hard on Corbyn will tax and nationalise everything you own. Don't bother with the IRA or Hamas stuff, taxes taxes taxes.
Overall I would guess at Tories hovering just above or below a majority, probably just above, say 329 seats. Think the Boris deal does enough to reassure wavering middle class tories (my mum voted LD in euros but now is backing Boris simply because of fear of Corbyn).
Revoke dividend and outspending whatever the others offer with that could be catchy. The public are not in the mood for financial prudence after a (partially needed) decade of austerity.
Corbyn is not an active anti-semite - he hates capital which so often is Jewish. He hates western imperialism which is represented by Israel in the ME. But he associates with people who are virulent anti-semites and is happy to defend AS murals and march behind AS banners - anti-semitic actions which make him a passive anti-semite not an active one.
Its the same with Johnson. He has said horrendous things about muslims, afro-caribbeans, LGBT etc etc. I don't he is openly racist or homophobic he just makes comments which are racist and honophobic. My Gillian Duffy reference I understood well - she is a proper Lancashire woman and like so many from that part of the world (my dad being an example) she makes comments which are inadvertantly rather than overtly prejudiced.
I don't expect AS / Islamophobia to be much of an issue in this campaign. I do expect foreigners and migration to be an issue though - the perceived damage of mass migration hasn't gone away. And in the campaign I expect a pivot on "get Brexit done" - a very successful slogan which unfortunately only exposes that the Johnson deal doesn't deliver and only Farage's clean break does...
That's the best little synopsis of Corbyn and the AS thing I've read on here, RP. Well done.
It was certainly better than my ramblings, I read this this morning and think it takes the issue further.
That's a good read - we have a young middle class hobby socialist in the family, and it certainly rings true of most of his 'comrades' (as they genuinely call themselves), most of whom are the children of wealthy middle class professionals (as is he).
Absolutely. I just think that it is sad that the Labour Party doesn't even bother to deny its anti-semitic associations or the fact that its leader is anti-semitic. But you are right. At 300,000 Jews in the general population, there is little electoral damage to be suffered by being avowedly anti-semitic.
I doubt that. If people thought Corbyn was a racist it would make a big difference to both Jew and Gentile. People make their own jugements. Corbyn is a fierce opponent of Israeli and is pro Pa;estinian. A position he shares with a majority of his countrymen. Possibly even his 200,000 Jewish countrymen
That Cambridge poll doesn't bode well for the Trots
I had to chuckle during the Canadian general election. There are not one, but two communist parties of Canada. Apparently they had a massive falling out. So now there is the Communist Party of Canada and the Marxist-Leninist Party of Canada. Talk about splitting the vote.
I’d like to see some constituency polling from key marginals . Not sure national polling is showing an accurate picture .
My one forecast I’m willing to make on a different issue . HS2 will be dropped after the GE if the Tories win.
The issue I have at the moment is that whilst the Tories are way ahead in the polls I can’t see where. We have been told on here this morning that it can’t be welsh valleys, it’s not in the tribal north west areas, and it might possibly be Bishop Auckland. These leads have to manifest somewhere, and unless they are only stacking up votes in their own existing seats, or lost cause opposition seats it has to be bad for someone else somewhere.
I know the most likely outcome at the moment appears to be at least a small Tory majority, but I'm curious what the threshold might be for the end of Johnson's leadership of the Conservatives?
If he can't hang on in Number 10 is it over? He could be forced out of Number 10 even if the Tories are more than 50 seats ahead of Labour. Might he hold on as Leader of the Opposition as long as he leads the largest party in the Commons?
Those who think Jezza just didn't see the cartoon was anti-semitic and it is all a Guido smear job. Then last month, Jezza was still proudly doing promos with a Hamas supporter.
He is either so dense that light bends around him and isn't intellectually capable for the job of PM or he doesn't give a shit about this issue, or both.
If you want a laugh, see the JC bending over backwards to absolve JRM of antisemitism for some careless remark or other they'd surely use to condemn the other JC.
Those who think Jezza just didn't see the cartoon was anti-semitic and it is all a Guido smear job. Then last month, Jezza was still proudly doing promos with a Hamas supporter.
He is either so dense that light bends around him and isn't intellectually capable for the job of PM or he doesn't give a shit about this issue, or both.
Looks like another case of Corbyn meeting with a Jewish person the right doesn't approve of? In this case, because he said prayers for Palestinians killed in Gaza, some of whom may have been members of Hamas.
Corbyn is not an active anti-semite - he hates capital which so often is Jewish. He hates western imperialism which is represented by Israel in the ME. But he associates with people who are virulent anti-semites and is happy to defend AS murals and march behind AS banners - anti-semitic actions which make him a passive anti-semite not an active one.
Its the same with Johnson. He has said horrendous things about muslims, afro-caribbeans, LGBT etc etc. I don't he is openly racist or homophobic he just makes comments which are racist and honophobic. My Gillian Duffy reference I understood well - she is a proper Lancashire woman and like so many from that part of the world (my dad being an example) she makes comments which are inadvertantly rather than overtly prejudiced.
I don't expect AS / Islamophobia to be much of an issue in this campaign. I do expect foreigners and migration to be an issue though - the perceived damage of mass migration hasn't gone away. And in the campaign I expect a pivot on "get Brexit done" - a very successful slogan which unfortunately only exposes that the Johnson deal doesn't deliver and only Farage's clean break does...
That's the best little synopsis of Corbyn and the AS thing I've read on here, RP. Well done.
I would have given it half a 'like'. I tried that mural on several Jewish and gentile friends including my daughter. None got the idea that the bankers were supposed to be Jewish. I'm afraid it was just Guido mischief making.
That Cambridge poll doesn't bode well for the Trots
I had to chuckle during the Canadian general election. There are not one, but two communist parties of Canada. Apparently they had a massive falling out. So now there is the Communist Party of Canada and the Marxist-Leninist Party of Canada. Talk about splitting the vote.
Only 2? There's normally half a dozen or so in any country.
Canada has probably kept it down to the main split of being Tankies or not being Tankies.
Corbyn is not an active anti-semite - he hates capital which so often is Jewish. He hates western imperialism which is represented by Israel in the ME. But he associates with people who are virulent anti-semites and is happy to defend AS murals and march behind AS banners - anti-semitic actions which make him a passive anti-semite not an active one.
Its the same with Johnson. He has said horrendous things about muslims, afro-caribbeans, LGBT etc etc. I don't he is openly racist or homophobic he just makes comments which are racist and honophobic. My Gillian Duffy reference I understood well - she is a proper Lancashire woman and like so many from that part of the world (my dad being an example) she makes comments which are inadvertantly rather than overtly prejudiced.
I don't expect AS / Islamophobia to be much of an issue in this campaign. I do expect foreigners and migration to be an issue though - the perceived damage of mass migration hasn't gone away. And in the campaign I expect a pivot on "get Brexit done" - a very successful slogan which unfortunately only exposes that the Johnson deal doesn't deliver and only Farage's clean break does...
That's the best little synopsis of Corbyn and the AS thing I've read on here, RP. Well done.
I would have given it half a 'like'. I tried that mural on several Jewish and gentile friends including my daughter. None got the idea that the bankers were supposed to be Jewish. I'm afraid it was just Guido mischief making.
Bullshit.
I think you must be from a much older generation than I took you to be. Not only didn't my daughter or her friends get that they were they didn't even have the slightest idea why they should be. That's not how modern Jews look!
Corbyn is not an active anti-semite - he hates capital which so often is Jewish. He hates western imperialism which is represented by Israel in the ME. But he associates with people who are virulent anti-semites and is happy to defend AS murals and march behind AS banners - anti-semitic actions which make him a passive anti-semite not an active one.
Its the same with Johnson. He has said horrendous things about muslims, afro-caribbeans, LGBT etc etc. I don't he is openly racist or homophobic he just makes comments which are racist and honophobic. My Gillian Duffy reference I understood well - she is a proper Lancashire woman and like so many from that part of the world (my dad being an example) she makes comments which are inadvertantly rather than overtly prejudiced.
I don't expect AS / Islamophobia to be much of an issue in this campaign. I do expect foreigners and migration to be an issue though - the perceived damage of mass migration hasn't gone away. And in the campaign I expect a pivot on "get Brexit done" - a very successful slogan which unfortunately only exposes that the Johnson deal doesn't deliver and only Farage's clean break does...
That's the best little synopsis of Corbyn and the AS thing I've read on here, RP. Well done.
It was certainly better than my ramblings, I read this this morning and think it takes the issue further.
That's a good read - we have a young middle class hobby socialist in the family, and it certainly rings true of most of his 'comrades' (as they genuinely call themselves), most of whom are the children of wealthy middle class professionals (as is he).
The bit that got me was about the purity and extremism of thought are being generated by people trying to stand out from the crowd and build profile on Twitter / social media. That surely applies across all politics with the ERG, die hard remainer Tories, bollocks to Brexit Libdems and the SNP who have never found a question to which the answer is not an independent Scotland.
That Cambridge poll doesn't bode well for the Trots
No, but the election is not going to be won and lost in seats like Cambridge, to be honest. It is not home to a lot of Workington Men. Sure, Labour would rather win Cambridge but it's a pretty unusual Labour/Lib Dem Remainer battleground.
Corbyn is not an active anti-semite - he hates capital which so often is Jewish. He hates western imperialism which is represented by Israel in the ME. But he associates with people who are virulent anti-semites and is happy to defend AS murals and march behind AS banners - anti-semitic actions which make him a passive anti-semite not an active one.
Its the same with Johnson. He has said horrendous things about muslims, afro-caribbeans, LGBT etc etc. I don't he is openly racist or homophobic he just makes comments which are racist and honophobic. My Gillian Duffy reference I understood well - she is a proper Lancashire woman and like so many from that part of the world (my dad being an example) she makes comments which are inadvertantly rather than overtly prejudiced.
I don't expect AS / Islamophobia to be much of an issue in this campaign. I do expect foreigners and migration to be an issue though - the perceived damage of mass migration hasn't gone away. And in the campaign I expect a pivot on "get Brexit done" - a very successful slogan which unfortunately only exposes that the Johnson deal doesn't deliver and only Farage's clean break does...
That's the best little synopsis of Corbyn and the AS thing I've read on here, RP. Well done.
I would have given it half a 'like'. I tried that mural on several Jewish and gentile friends including my daughter. None got the idea that the bankers were supposed to be Jewish. I'm afraid it was just Guido mischief making.
Bullshit.
I think you must be from a much older generation than I took you to be. Not only didn't my daughter or her friends get that they were they didn't even have the slightest idea why they should be. That's not how modern Jews look!
That your daughter can't recognise a Nazi cartoon when she sees one is I suppose plausible.
That Jews don't know a crude Antisemitic caricature when they see one is rather hard to believe.
So Day 1 on here and just 55 to go - I mean, eight weeks of this nonsense and this is for a "snap" election.
The early skirmishes are fairly predictable and set the tone.
The Conservative message is clear and that's a huge advantage for them - we've gone from "Trust Theresa" to "Trust Boris" who will get Brexit "done".
You can obviously drive a coach and horses through that but a message repeated ad nauseam and ad infinitum gets through somehow and it may well be simply wishing Brexit away is the only sentiment the Conservatives will require.
The fact we have a year's worth of negotiation around the PD and the trading arrangements seem to have been forgotten as we will be "out" on January 1st (we won't) and it will be the "first day of the rest of our lives" (nope, won't be that either as we will be in transition through 2020 during which we remain full members of the EU).
Of course, that will all be glossed over by Boris. I suspect he won't want to talk about the post-Brexit agenda which is riddled with inconsistencies and contradictions and perhaps the one word Boris really doesn't want to talk about is immigration. Let's see if that dog is going to bark in the next eight weeks.
Corbyn is not an active anti-semite - he hates capital which so often is Jewish. He hates western imperialism which is represented by Israel in the ME. But he associates with people who are virulent anti-semites and is happy to defend AS murals and march behind AS banners - anti-semitic actions which make him a passive anti-semite not an active one.
I don't expect AS / Islamophobia to be much of an issue in this campaign. I do expect foreigners and migration to be an issue though - the perceived damage of mass migration hasn't gone away. And in the campaign I expect a pivot on "get Brexit done" - a very successful slogan which unfortunately only exposes that the Johnson deal doesn't deliver and only Farage's clean break does...
That's the best little synopsis of Corbyn and the AS thing I've read on here, RP. Well done.
It was certainly better than my ramblings, I read this this morning and think it takes the issue further.
That's a good read - we have a young middle class hobby socialist in the family, and it certainly rings true of most of his 'comrades' (as they genuinely call themselves), most of whom are the children of wealthy middle class professionals (as is he).
The bit that got me was about the purity and extremism of thought are being generated by people trying to stand out from the crowd and build profile on Twitter / social media. That surely applies across all politics with the ERG, die hard remainer Tories, bollocks to Brexit Libdems and the SNP who have never found a question to which the answer is not an independent Scotland.
Completely. Nuance has left the building, everything is seen in black and white, and rhetoric is turned up to eleventy stupid.
I was discussing the election with my brother (a Tory donor, but lives in a Labour seat) and talking about tactical voting. The advice I gave him was to vote Tory as they were the second placed party, with no other party anywhere near.
The middle class hobby socialist was incredulous, as I am voting SNP in a Scottish marginal. I pointed out that the SNP doesn't field candidates in England, and it was possible to discuss politics without resorting to entrenched positions and tub thumping. His solution to everything is to vote Labour - they got 2.8% in my constituency at the Europeans.
It is as though being seen to say the 'wrong' thing and getting 'cancelled' is the only thing that matters. He's in for a shock when he leaves university and meets actual working class people.
I’d like to see some constituency polling from key marginals . Not sure national polling is showing an accurate picture .
My one forecast I’m willing to make on a different issue . HS2 will be dropped after the GE if the Tories win.
The issue I have at the moment is that whilst the Tories are way ahead in the polls I can’t see where. We have been told on here this morning that it can’t be welsh valleys, it’s not in the tribal north west areas, and it might possibly be Bishop Auckland. These leads have to manifest somewhere, and unless they are only stacking up votes in their own existing seats, or lost cause opposition seats it has to be bad for someone else somewhere.
I'm having the same difficulty.
It's hard to equate the polls with anything but a clear Tory majority, but where do they win the seats? It looks fairly certain they will lose some in Scotland and Remainerstan, so they have to offset them and then some. The talk seems to be of Labour Leave seats, mainly 'up north', but then we know Brexit isn't that big an issue there and will not necessarily outweigh traditional hostility to the blue team.
It all suggests to me a small advance by Boris and maybe a small overall majority, but far too unpredictable to wager large sums on.
That Cambridge poll doesn't bode well for the Trots
I had to chuckle during the Canadian general election. There are not one, but two communist parties of Canada. Apparently they had a massive falling out. So now there is the Communist Party of Canada and the Marxist-Leninist Party of Canada. Talk about splitting the vote.
Only 2? There's normally half a dozen or so in any country.
Canada has probably kept it down to the main split of being Tankies or not being Tankies.
The fringes are normally fairly fragmented.
If a major party (i.e. one with elected MPs) split, that's a huge headache for them - particularly with FPTP but often with other electoral systems too (e.g. due to thresholds).
If you don't have elected representatives and have no serious prospect of getting them, it doesn't matter anywhere near as much. You may as well go for total ideological purity at that point, and it all gets a bit Judean People's Front.
We are now up to 52 MPs standing down at the election, some way up from the 31 who stood down last time. Allowing for seats changing hands we could see over a 100 new MPs. Dennis Skinner would be father of the house if he stands again and wins.
In other news, I'm off to the polls today to vote in the Maidenhead Riverside by election. This was caused by the sudden resignation of Council leader Simon Dudley. There was speculation he was going to try to take over the Maidenhead seat from Theresa May but she is now staying on. He has now applied to be the candidate for Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner instead.
There has been lots of activity for the by-election. My partner was canvassed by Philip May and the LD candidate, and we have also had leaflets from the Borough First (ex-Conservatives who fell out with Dudley) and Labour. Green and Women's Equality are also standing. The Borough First came second last time, narrowly ahead of the LDs.
Prediction - Con to hang on with a reduced share due to the split anti-Tory vote
That’s a dreadful look if it happens . If you’re not confident of holding a seat with a 5,000 majority which voted Leave then really that looks pretty spineless .
I tried Cambridge. It recommended voting for either Labour or LibDem. It should recommend one or the other to prevent the Tories coming through the middle. Not likely in Cambridge but could happen elsewhere.
Wonder what Cummings will put on the side of Boris's battle bus?
“Let’s give the £350 mio a week we give to the EU and spend it on US drug companies instead.”?
Can you explain why the government would seek to pay US drug companies more money for the same medicines albeit non generic. I heard the story yesterday and couldn’t for the life of me think why?
Price of a trade deal:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47036119 The pharmaceutical industry is also gearing up for negotiations to start. PhRMA, which represents drug makers in the US such as AbbVie Merck and Novartis, said it wanted a deal to address the barriers to access it currently faces in the UK, pointing to items such as government price controls. It heavily criticised the current NHS drug approval system, pointing to the cap on the price of drugs as too restrictive, and highlighting insufficient healthcare budgets and "rigid" national processes. The organisation, as well as some other groups, are also hoping to secure patent protections for certain types of drugs for at least 12 years, among other demands....
Comments
One fantastic bet I have seen is the 10/11 return (Ladbrokes) on Conservatives to have a 30-40% vote share. At the moment I think only 1 of the last 30 polls has been below 30% and 1 has been 40% exactly.
I really find it hard to believe they will poll sub 30% unless BXP storms this election, but I also think over 40% (though more possible) is going to prove very tricky as they will be required to squeeze BXP into single figures and attract a lot of remain Tories who might flirt with the Libs. At the moment the Tory poll average is slap bang in the middle of this bracket.
I though you believed in the "will of the people" or is that only just when it suits you?
I expect Hammond etc to attack Boris during the campaign but I think most voters will see it as sour grapes given the alternative is Jezza PM. It would be far more effective if Boris was up against a centre left candidate like Starmer who ex Tory rebels could make a stronger argument for.
And the minute we’re out the focus will have to be on what happens at the end of the transition period, a decision on which will need to be made by July. And if no decision is made - or no extension of the transition agreed and, remember, this will be a much more complicated decision than an Article 50 extension - then there will need to be planning for what happens when it ends - another form of No Deal planning - what tariffs, on which sectors, at what rate, what data sharing agreements, etc etc - all the many decisions which will need to be taken as a consequence of becoming a third country at the end of December 2020.
The idea that Brexit can be put behind us and the government can happily focus on joyful internal matters is for the birds.
But, hey, this is the season for fairy stories so that’s what Boris is counting on. The reality will hit him - and us - later.
My wild prediction. March GE following another result remarkably similar to 2017.
As for people being ignored, that has been the position of Brexiteers; that in spite of their very marginal "victory" in the referendum, they should ride roughshod over the 48% who though it a dumb idea. Brexiteers only have themselves to blame. If Brexit never happens it will serve the extremist tossers in that movement right. Shame the whole charade ever happened
But there we are, Britain knows best, all the other European countries can see it but we can't, fog in the channel Europe cut off, blah, blah blah.
And most voters will be sage enough to know that Farage's "clean break" will still require us to sit down and make thousands of micro-deals/accommodations, before coming up with some longer term trading arrangements with the EU. Boris's Deal jumps through a number of those hoops.
Huzzah!!
Even if he were right, it is not inconsistent with a healthy Tory majority.
The problem with that is most people who bang on about Zionism etc, aren't simply stating facts e.g. the state of Israel certainly oversteps the mark in terms of settlements and pushing back against protesters. Instead Labour has been infected by anti-semites, who use all the Zionism stuff as cover, but he doesn't see that.
Also, those that defend Jezza, even after all this has blown up and most people who think hmmm I think I better be careful with who I associate, he is still regularly does meet ups with these extremists.
https://unherd.com/2019/10/how-the-left-lost-all-purpose/
Best (widely available) prices per Oddschecker.
Lindsay Hoyle 4/9
Harriet Harman 5/1
Eleanor Laing 5/1
Chris Bryant 20/1
33/1 bar
My one forecast I’m willing to make on a different issue . HS2 will be dropped after the GE if the Tories win.
Pillock.
https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/outrage-over-corbyn-s-rosh-hashanah-video-featuring-hamas-kaddish-activist-1.489412
He is either so dense that light bends around him and isn't intellectually capable for the job of PM or he doesn't give a shit about this issue, or both.
Labour will basically need to ignore brexit as much as possible. Line should be "we will get a jobs first brexit that protects our NHS and let the public decide on it". Always turn the conversation to any other subject. Fear of Boris selling everything to Trump will help them out.
The Tories will do best to try and scare wavering tories and floating voters that Corbyn is going to steal their homes and raise taxes etc. The Boris deal will reassure a lot of LD waverers that No Deal is off the table. Ignore Farage and ig ore Brexit as much as possible. I don't see Tories winning by taking Labour Leave seats, if they win it will be because they hold on to the leafy middle class vote. Best way to do that is go hard on Corbyn will tax and nationalise everything you own. Don't bother with the IRA or Hamas stuff, taxes taxes taxes.
Overall I would guess at Tories hovering just above or below a majority, probably just above, say 329 seats. Think the Boris deal does enough to reassure wavering middle class tories (my mum voted LD in euros but now is backing Boris simply because of fear of Corbyn).
A crudely drawn cock.
If he can't hang on in Number 10 is it over? He could be forced out of Number 10 even if the Tories are more than 50 seats ahead of Labour. Might he hold on as Leader of the Opposition as long as he leads the largest party in the Commons?
Canada has probably kept it down to the main split of being Tankies or not being Tankies.
That Jews don't know a crude Antisemitic caricature when they see one is rather hard to believe.
Con 36%
Lab 23%
LD 18%
BRX 12%
Grn 6%
Oth 6%
UKIP 0%
https://www.getvoting.org/
So Day 1 on here and just 55 to go - I mean, eight weeks of this nonsense and this is for a "snap" election.
The early skirmishes are fairly predictable and set the tone.
The Conservative message is clear and that's a huge advantage for them - we've gone from "Trust Theresa" to "Trust Boris" who will get Brexit "done".
You can obviously drive a coach and horses through that but a message repeated ad nauseam and ad infinitum gets through somehow and it may well be simply wishing Brexit away is the only sentiment the Conservatives will require.
The fact we have a year's worth of negotiation around the PD and the trading arrangements seem to have been forgotten as we will be "out" on January 1st (we won't) and it will be the "first day of the rest of our lives" (nope, won't be that either as we will be in transition through 2020 during which we remain full members of the EU).
Of course, that will all be glossed over by Boris. I suspect he won't want to talk about the post-Brexit agenda which is riddled with inconsistencies and contradictions and perhaps the one word Boris really doesn't want to talk about is immigration. Let's see if that dog is going to bark in the next eight weeks.
I was discussing the election with my brother (a Tory donor, but lives in a Labour seat) and talking about tactical voting. The advice I gave him was to vote Tory as they were the second placed party, with no other party anywhere near.
The middle class hobby socialist was incredulous, as I am voting SNP in a Scottish marginal. I pointed out that the SNP doesn't field candidates in England, and it was possible to discuss politics without resorting to entrenched positions and tub thumping. His solution to everything is to vote Labour - they got 2.8% in my constituency at the Europeans.
It is as though being seen to say the 'wrong' thing and getting 'cancelled' is the only thing that matters. He's in for a shock when he leaves university and meets actual working class people.
It's hard to equate the polls with anything but a clear Tory majority, but where do they win the seats? It looks fairly certain they will lose some in Scotland and Remainerstan, so they have to offset them and then some. The talk seems to be of Labour Leave seats, mainly 'up north', but then we know Brexit isn't that big an issue there and will not necessarily outweigh traditional hostility to the blue team.
It all suggests to me a small advance by Boris and maybe a small overall majority, but far too unpredictable to wager large sums on.
If a major party (i.e. one with elected MPs) split, that's a huge headache for them - particularly with FPTP but often with other electoral systems too (e.g. due to thresholds).
If you don't have elected representatives and have no serious prospect of getting them, it doesn't matter anywhere near as much. You may as well go for total ideological purity at that point, and it all gets a bit Judean People's Front.
More dithering!
In other news, I'm off to the polls today to vote in the Maidenhead Riverside by election. This was caused by the sudden resignation of Council leader Simon Dudley. There was speculation he was going to try to take over the Maidenhead seat from Theresa May but she is now staying on. He has now applied to be the candidate for Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner instead.
There has been lots of activity for the by-election. My partner was canvassed by Philip May and the LD candidate, and we have also had leaflets from the Borough First (ex-Conservatives who fell out with Dudley) and Labour. Green and Women's Equality are also standing. The Borough First came second last time, narrowly ahead of the LDs.
Prediction - Con to hang on with a reduced share due to the split anti-Tory vote
I got a Lib Dem recommendation, despite Labour polling 3x the Lib Dems in 2017...
EDIT: Hancock, I hasten to add, Andy, not you.
Think someone is just trying to stir up a bit of trouble for Boris.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47036119
The pharmaceutical industry is also gearing up for negotiations to start.
PhRMA, which represents drug makers in the US such as AbbVie Merck and Novartis, said it wanted a deal to address the barriers to access it currently faces in the UK, pointing to items such as government price controls.
It heavily criticised the current NHS drug approval system, pointing to the cap on the price of drugs as too restrictive, and highlighting insufficient healthcare budgets and "rigid" national processes.
The organisation, as well as some other groups, are also hoping to secure patent protections for certain types of drugs for at least 12 years, among other demands....