Went to see 'Official Secrets' yesterday afternoon. Not a good thing to be reminded of Blair's dishonesty and chicanery over Iraq, during an election campaign, I suspect. I realise of course that Corbyn's Labour is an entire different thing from Blair's, but the name's the same and the association won't go away. Also about the only elected representative or public employee who came out of it well was Nigel Jones, then LibDem MP for Cheltenham.
Extraordinary Cambridge poll but isn't that Heidi Allen's seat? A serious loss in my opinion. One of the most articulate and likable MP's in parliament. Maybe someone can persuade her to have a rethink.
Doubts about Swinson, doubts about Corbyn but either are better than Johnson.
I cannot belie you actually mean that.
Corbyn is certainly not better than Johnson. By any objective measure he is indeed far worse. He has all of Johnson’s faults in great measure - his incoherence, dishonesty, racism, greed, selfishness and espousal of violence - and a considerable number of others that he keeps all to himself, in particular a total lack of intellectual curiosity or ability.
Extraordinary Cambridge poll but isn't that Heidi Allen's seat? A serious loss in my opinion. One of the most articulate and likable MP's in parliament. Maybe someone can persuade her to have a rethink.
No, she’s South Cambridgeshire. Cambridge is some random Labourist.
I really do hope Labour get pounded like a dockside hooker. Corbyn deserves to lose really big. His policies would be disastrous for the UK, its going to be tough enough after Brexit. We don't need to pour oil on troubled waters.
Oil on troubled waters calms things down. I think you mean, ‘pour petrol on the fire.’
Admittedly, Corbyn in Downing Street would be the equivalent of cleaning up an earthquake zone by nuking it.
The Cambridge poll is excellent news for Leavers. Remainers are devoting energy & money to fighting each other.
Even if the University seats change, it will simply be replacing a Red Uber-Remainer with a Yellow Uber-Remainer.
Notice how the LibDems are only keen on a "Remain Alliance" when it suits their own narrow, sectional interests.
Labour chose not be in the remain alliance. They may be the best remain choice in many seats but are not part of that alliance, through no fault of the LDs.
Err, when did the LibDems offer to stand down from Remainer Labour or SNP-held constituencies ?
I missed it.
The LibDem "Remainer Alliance" was only offered to Green & PC, as far I am aware.
The starting point for entry to the "remain" alliance is choosing to be a remain party. Labour have chosen to be a referendum party and their leader refuses to endorse remain. Perhaps they should try and start a referendum alliance.
Doubts about Swinson, doubts about Corbyn but either are better than Johnson.
I cannot belie you actually mean that.
Corbyn is certainly not better than Johnson. By any objective measure he is indeed far worse. He has all of Johnson’s faults in great measure - his incoherence, dishonesty, racism, greed, selfishness and espousal of violence - and a considerable number of others that he keeps all to himself, in particular a total lack of intellectual curiosity or ability.
I am voting against what has been by far the worst government in my lifetime. The risks of change are outweighed by the proven reality of the last four years. A government prepared to act unlawfully to force its will.
Doubts about Swinson, doubts about Corbyn but either are better than Johnson.
I cannot belie you actually mean that.
I look at the past four years and say no thanks. We need change.
Shame that no change is on offer then. The Liberal Democrats offer a change of approach, but are not going to win. Corbyn offers more of the same done much more badly.
Doubts about Swinson, doubts about Corbyn but either are better than Johnson.
I cannot belie you actually mean that.
Corbyn is certainly not better than Johnson. By any objective measure he is indeed far worse. He has all of Johnson’s faults in great measure - his incoherence, dishonesty, racism, greed, selfishness and espousal of violence - and a considerable number of others that he keeps all to himself, in particular a total lack of intellectual curiosity or ability.
Like them or not, he does have political beliefs and principles, which sets him apart from the great Bozo.
Extraordinary Cambridge poll but isn't that Heidi Allen's seat? A seriousloss in my opinion. One of the most articulate and likable MP's in parliament. Maybe someone can persuade her to have a rethink.
No. Allen is the leafy villages to the South of Cambridge, together with the most affluent of the Cambridge City wards.
Cambridge constituency is the heavily Remain-voting University wards and the Labour-dominated poorer Leave-voting wards in the East of the City.
There was no sign of this LibDem surge in the Cambridge local elections in 2019, when the LibDems took zero seats from Labour.
Only if the Labour campaign is a complete disaster will they lose Cambridge. Not impossible, but I think not.
The Cambridge poll is excellent news for Leavers. Remainers are devoting energy & money to fighting each other.
Even if the University seats change, it will simply be replacing a Red Uber-Remainer with a Yellow Uber-Remainer.
Notice how the LibDems are only keen on a "Remain Alliance" when it suits their own narrow, sectional interests.
Labour chose not be in the remain alliance. They may be the best remain choice in many seats but are not part of that alliance, through no fault of the LDs.
Err, when did the LibDems offer to stand down from Remainer Labour or SNP-held constituencies ?
I missed it.
The LibDem "Remainer Alliance" was only offered to Green & PC, as far I am aware.
The starting point for entry to the "remain" alliance is choosing to be a remain party. Labour have chosen to be a referendum party and their leader refuses to endorse remain. Perhaps they should try and start a referendum alliance.
Doubts about Swinson, doubts about Corbyn but either are better than Johnson.
I cannot belie you actually mean that.
I look at the past four years and say no thanks. We need change.
Shame that no change is on offer then. The Liberal Democrats offer a change of approach, but are not going to win. Corbyn offers more of the same done much more badly.
A minority Lab/Lib administration would offer real change and mitigate some risks from extremes in each party. I prefer Labours Brexit position.
Doubts about Swinson, doubts about Corbyn but either are better than Johnson.
I cannot belie you actually mean that.
Corbyn is certainly not better than Johnson. By any objective measure he is indeed far worse. He has all of Johnson’s faults in great measure - his incoherence, dishonesty, racism, greed, selfishness and espousal of violence - and a considerable number of others that he keeps all to himself, in particular a total lack of intellectual curiosity or ability.
Like them or not, he does have political beliefs and principles, which sets him apart from the great Bozo.
Does he? A man who voted against welfare cuts to win the leadership but kept them in his manifesto to fund free degrees for millionaires? A man who claims to have a ‘low violence threshold’ who riots in support fo terrorists? A man who rails against vested interests and broken systems and yet appoints people to key posts on the basis that they’re having sex with his mates?
He has no more principles than Johnson. He just has fooled more people into not noticing it.
How do those people who want a quick FTA with the USA reconcile that with the fact it probably rules out a FTA with the EU as per Barnier today?
The real question should be "How do those people who want a quick FTA with the USA reconcile that with reality?"
Since the US-Israel FTA in 1985, the US has ratified no FTA in less than 6 years from the end of technical negotiations - and has concluded no technical negotiation in less than 2 years. And no US FTA has started with the Democrats promising to refuse it ratification - as they have with the Johnson-Trump unicorn.
Might not have time for this daftness over the weekend (off-chance there won't be any F1 blogs, we'll see) so here's a continuation of the football daftness from last time. As an aside, I'm aware of the Manchester City match, but 1.08 isn't worth it, I think.
All bets are on Ladbrokes, for tiny, tiny stakes. Disclaimer: I know nothing about football.
Draw - Bournemouth/Man United 3.4 Arsenal to beat Wolves 1.72 Liverpool to beat Villa 1.36 Brighton to beat Norwich 1.75 Draw - Sheffield United/Burnley 3.1 Draw - West Ham/Newcastle 3.5 Chelsea to beat Watford 1.7
And the accumulator (yes, yes, unlikely to win, but I'm playing for bottle tops) is 253.42 (that's 297.96 with boost, if you have it).
Doubts about Swinson, doubts about Corbyn but either are better than Johnson.
I cannot belie you actually mean that.
I look at the past four years and say no thanks. We need change.
Shame that no change is on offer then. The Liberal Democrats offer a change of approach, but are not going to win. Corbyn offers more of the same done much more badly.
A minority Lab/Lib administration would offer real change and mitigate some risks.
Would you be interested in this bridge I have for sale? Excellent views across Sydney Harbour. Price negotiable but starts at A$2 billion.
Extraordinary Cambridge poll but isn't that Heidi Allen's seat? A serious loss in my opinion. One of the most articulate and likable MP's in parliament. Maybe someone can persuade her to have a rethink.
No, This is Zeichner's seat. Allen was South Cambridgeshire
Doubts about Swinson, doubts about Corbyn but either are better than Johnson.
I cannot belie you actually mean that.
I look at the past four years and say no thanks. We need change.
Shame that no change is on offer then. The Liberal Democrats offer a change of approach, but are not going to win. Corbyn offers more of the same done much more badly.
A minority Lab/Lib administration would offer real change and mitigate some risks.
Would you be interested in this bridge I have for sale? Excellent views across Sydney Harbour. Price negotiable but starts at A$2 billion.
The view is better than what I’ve had to look at these past four years.
Par score for Labour is 165 - this feels like Tories 1997 levels of beating to me. However, I go with yesterday's prediction of non big2 parties doing record levels of well.
Farage hasn't gone away and his "clean break Brexit" resonates in a way that the Johnson Surrender Deal doesn't. Expect to hear agonising detail about how a vote Johnson is a vote for further agonising years of aggro over Brexit, where instead of "get Brexit done" people realise this is just the start. Whilst I don't expect the BXP to win many seats (tip Hartlepool) they will be a major disruption to HYUFDs fantasy of a Boris landslide
On the other side there will be a big LibDem breakthrough and a big SNP restoration - how big depends on the campaign. Never mind the simple clear and positive campaigns that both parties will fight, I can't wait for the hate fest shitshow that is the Labour campaign. Jezbollah will continue to parade himself like Romulus Augustus Caesar. MPs will continue to fight their battle against Momentum and Divide, Richard Burgon (and his Incredible Universe) will openly contradict Starmer over Brexit whilst Pidcockkk will be sent out to insist this isn't a Brexit election
You really are bitter aren't you.
Try bigging up Tory Swinsons policies instead of the hate fest
I've never understood the parodying of politician's names like 'Jezbollah'. It always sounds so cheap and unoriginal but 'Tory Swinson' is no better.
Try bigging up Tory Swinsons policies instead of the hate fest
For once I agree with you. Rochdale’s endless negging is utterly tiresome.
I think he used to compare the Tories to evil killers guilty of state manslaughter.
Or something.
Best ignored.
People die under Tory "welfare" policies. Thats a fact. Plentry of reportage of disabled veterans and seriously ill people left to die in their own filth whilst Tory politicians defend the system. Sorry if harsh reality offends you.
As for my negging, strip away my pejorative language and look dispassionately at what is in front of you. The Labour Party civil war is real and is nasty. The attempts to deselct MPs have all failed and there is a mob of Labour supporters very visible on Twitter angry about it. The cycle of select an anti-semite continues, the latest being the charmer unveiled to run in Poplar and Limehouse. The reality vs optimism war continues. Corbyn in making his 2nd reading speech yesterday gives way to one of his own MPs who openly and directly contradicts what Corbyn was saying seconds before.
I despise the man - you can all see that. But my personal "negging" doesn't negate the evidence in front of us
Doubts about Swinson, doubts about Corbyn but either are better than Johnson.
I cannot belie you actually mean that.
Corbyn is certainly not better than Johnson. By any objective measure he is indeed far worse. He has all of Johnson’s faults in great measure - his incoherence, dishonesty, racism, greed, selfishness and espousal of violence - and a considerable number of others that he keeps all to himself, in particular a total lack of intellectual curiosity or ability.
Richard Huckle's corpse with a mop balanced on its head would be a more worthy PM than BJ.
Doubts about Swinson, doubts about Corbyn but either are better than Johnson.
I cannot belie you actually mean that.
I look at the past four years and say no thanks. We need change.
Shame that no change is on offer then. The Liberal Democrats offer a change of approach, but are not going to win. Corbyn offers more of the same done much more badly.
A minority Lab/Lib administration would offer real change and mitigate some risks.
Would you be interested in this bridge I have for sale? Excellent views across Sydney Harbour. Price negotiable but starts at A$2 billion.
The view is better than what I’ve had to look at these past four years.
I rather expect a modest Tory majority at this point. I think the get Brexit done line will resonate with people who didn't actually care much either way but are sick to the back teeth of it. The Brexit Party and Labour are basically offering yet more Brexit whilst the try to persuade the EU to once again re-open negotiations for a different kind of deal. Neither are credible. The Lib Dems policy is illiberal and undemocratic but at least it is clear and decisive.
The BBC headline is Boris saying this will be tough. I am not detecting the frankly demented arrogance and hubris of May in 2017. Boris will actually campaign and he is rather good at it. Of course many Tory shibboleths will be discarded, not least of which is any real grip on public spending. Javid won't get his budget after all. Probably just as well if his financial statement was anything to go by. If Boris gets a clear majority I frankly wonder if he will keep his post.
I don't think BoZo is "rather good at it" from the bits we have seen of him avoiding scrutiny. He can serve meals to supine patients and paint with primary school children, but flips at the more tricky stuff.
I expect that he will get a small majority and prove to be the most disasterous Prime Ministers in modern history, particularly for Scottish Conservatives.
The Cambridge poll is excellent news for Leavers. Remainers are devoting energy & money to fighting each other.
Even if the University seats change, it will simply be replacing a Red Uber-Remainer with a Yellow Uber-Remainer.
Notice how the LibDems are only keen on a "Remain Alliance" when it suits their own narrow, sectional interests.
Labour chose not be in the remain alliance. They may be the best remain choice in many seats but are not part of that alliance, through no fault of the LDs.
Err, when did the LibDems offer to stand down from Remainer Labour or SNP-held constituencies ?
I missed it.
The LibDem "Remainer Alliance" was only offered to Green & PC, as far I am aware.
The starting point for entry to the "remain" alliance is choosing to be a remain party. Labour have chosen to be a referendum party and their leader refuses to endorse remain. Perhaps they should try and start a referendum alliance.
Are the SNP not a Remain party?
Yes they are. And they win or are 2nd in nearly all the seats they contest so might not be particularly interested in standing down from them.
Doubts about Swinson, doubts about Corbyn but either are better than Johnson.
I cannot belie you actually mean that.
Corbyn is certainly not better than Johnson. By any objective measure he is indeed far worse. He has all of Johnson’s faults in great measure - his incoherence, dishonesty, racism, greed, selfishness and espousal of violence - and a considerable number of others that he keeps all to himself, in particular a total lack of intellectual curiosity or ability.
Richard Huckle's corpse with a mop balanced on its head would be a more worthy PM than BJ.
Par score for Labour is 165 - this feels like Tories 1997 levels of beating to me. However, I go with yesterday's prediction of non big2 parties doing record levels of well.
Farage hasn't gone away and his "clean break Brexit" resonates in a way that the Johnson Surrender Deal doesn't. Expect to hear agonising detail about how a vote Johnson is a vote for further agonising years of aggro over Brexit, where instead of "get Brexit done" people realise this is just the start. Whilst I don't expect the BXP to win many seats (tip Hartlepool) they will be a major disruption to HYUFDs fantasy of a Boris landslide
On the other side there will be a big LibDem breakthrough and a big SNP restoration - how big depends on the campaign. Never mind the simple clear and positive campaigns that both parties will fight, I can't wait for the hate fest shitshow that is the Labour campaign. Jezbollah will continue to parade himself like Romulus Augustus Caesar. MPs will continue to fight their battle against Momentum and Divide, Richard Burgon (and his Incredible Universe) will openly contradict Starmer over Brexit whilst Pidcockkk will be sent out to insist this isn't a Brexit election
You really are bitter aren't you.
Try bigging up Tory Swinsons policies instead of the hate fest
I've never understood the parodying of politician's names like 'Jezbollah'. It always sounds so cheap and unoriginal but 'Tory Swinson' is no better.
In the interest of other people's sanity I will stop referring to Corbyn's "I was there, I shared a stage, I attended the wreath laying commemoration but I wasn't involved" links to Hezbollah in the form of my once witty now tiresome portmanteau
Big disadvantage is that the Tories will be facing an opposition of five. Anyone who says there isn't strength in numbers can't count.
But it’s not an addition sum it’s a division.
Is it?
Possibly, possibly not.
There are few three way marginals. In most seats and regions it is quite clear who to vote for to bring down the Tories.
Not necessarily. There are a lot of Tory Home Counties seats where the LibDems are the only realistic alternative victor, yet where the LDs have fallen from their usual second to third place in the aftermath of the coalition. For example, the LibDems are the only ones who could unseat JRM - as both local and Euro elections demonstrate - yet the Labour candidate who was second last time has potential to muddy the water.
Doubts about Swinson, doubts about Corbyn but either are better than Johnson.
I cannot belie you actually mean that.
I look at the past four years and say no thanks. We need change.
Shame that no change is on offer then. The Liberal Democrats offer a change of approach, but are not going to win. Corbyn offers more of the same done much more badly.
A minority Lab/Lib administration would offer real change and mitigate some risks.
Would you be interested in this bridge I have for sale? Excellent views across Sydney Harbour. Price negotiable but starts at A$2 billion.
The view is better than what I’ve had to look at these past four years.
The Cambridge poll is excellent news for Leavers. Remainers are devoting energy & money to fighting each other.
Even if the University seats change, it will simply be replacing a Red Uber-Remainer with a Yellow Uber-Remainer.
Notice how the LibDems are only keen on a "Remain Alliance" when it suits their own narrow, sectional interests.
If we compare the swings in the Cambridge poll to those in the latest Survation national poll then we see that in Cambridge the Liberal Democrats are underperforming their national figures, as are Labour and the Brexit Party. The Conservatives and Greens are beating their national swings.
Mathematical consistency would suggest that the Conservatives may underperform, and Labour and Liberal Democrats outperform, the national swings in other seats. Like Conservative/Labour or Conservative/Liberal Democrat marginals, perhaps?
How do those people who want a quick FTA with the USA reconcile that with the fact it probably rules out a FTA with the EU as per Barnier today?
The real question should be "How do those people who want a quick FTA with the USA reconcile that with reality?"
Since the US-Israel FTA in 1985, the US has ratified no FTA in less than 6 years from the end of technical negotiations - and has concluded no technical negotiation in less than 2 years. And no US FTA has started with the Democrats promising to refuse it ratification - as they have with the Johnson-Trump unicorn.
Has not the Irish-American Congressional lobby warned that no deal will be made which appears detrimental to Irish interests? Which suggests that negotiations are going to take quite a while.
The Cambridge poll is excellent news for Leavers. Remainers are devoting energy & money to fighting each other.
Even if the University seats change, it will simply be replacing a Red Uber-Remainer with a Yellow Uber-Remainer.
Notice how the LibDems are only keen on a "Remain Alliance" when it suits their own narrow, sectional interests.
Labour chose not be in the remain alliance. They may be the best remain choice in many seats but are not part of that alliance, through no fault of the LDs.
Err, when did the LibDems offer to stand down from Remainer Labour or SNP-held constituencies ?
I missed it.
The LibDem "Remainer Alliance" was only offered to Green & PC, as far I am aware.
The starting point for entry to the "remain" alliance is choosing to be a remain party. Labour have chosen to be a referendum party and their leader refuses to endorse remain. Perhaps they should try and start a referendum alliance.
Are the SNP not a Remain party?
Yes they are. And they win or are 2nd in nearly all the seats they contest so might not be particularly interested in standing down from them.
The SNP is likely to hold its seats and in the remainder voters simply need to work out whether they or the LibDem is best placed to beat their Tory or Labour MP.
Extraordinary Cambridge poll but isn't that Heidi Allen's seat? A serious loss in my opinion. One of the most articulate and likable MP's in parliament. Maybe someone can persuade her to have a rethink.
No, This is Zeichner's seat. Allen was South Cambridgeshire
He wouldn't resign. If Corbo denies Johnson and overall majority he'd count that as a victory.
He might. Depends on the numbers, of course, but if Labour go backwards far enough then he might just give up. He visibly has not enjoyed the recent infighting over Brexit. As a not very bright follower of, and tireless advocate for far left dogma, he’s uncomfortable and confused when dealing with an issue which cuts across traditional right/left lines.
And deciding that there must be another general election is not, as we have seen, in any one leader’s gift.
Doubts about Swinson, doubts about Corbyn but either are better than Johnson.
I cannot belie you actually mean that.
I look at the past four years and say no thanks. We need change.
Shame that no change is on offer then. The Liberal Democrats offer a change of approach, but are not going to win. Corbyn offers more of the same done much more badly.
A minority Lab/Lib administration would offer real change and mitigate some risks.
Would you be interested in this bridge I have for sale? Excellent views across Sydney Harbour. Price negotiable but starts at A$2 billion.
The view is better than what I’ve had to look at these past four years.
Can you meet the asking price though?
Is your price on the side of a bus?
If Corbyn gets in we won’t be able to afford buses. That’s why I’m selling assets including this bridge.
Extraordinary Cambridge poll but isn't that Heidi Allen's seat? A serious loss in my opinion. One of the most articulate and likable MP's in parliament. Maybe someone can persuade her to have a rethink.
No, This is Zeichner's seat. Allen was South Cambridgeshire
Zeichner comes across well on local TV.
This election is unpredictable. None of us truly knows what is going to happen
To put it simply there are two key dynamics at work and as yet nobody knows how they will play out:
LEAVE - Conservative vs Brexit. Having spent so much time and effort successfully persuading voters that No Deal is the only real Brexit the spin operation needs to quickly and decisively reverse that and persuade voters that Boris's 90% the same as May's deal is what they want.
If they succeed and the leave vote coalesces around the Tories, then they will do very well. If they don't succeed, then the leave vote divides and the Peterborough byelection becomes instructive where the leave parties win a majority of the account and lose the seat.
REMAIN - And I loosely use this word to describe Labour. "Hold your nose" has been used to describe middle class people voting Labour against their instincts by journalists like Polly Toynbe. Whilst those voters are yet again a concern for Labour the bigger concern has to be in their "traditional" voters where enough of them are Brexiteers as to create a problem. These voters are very unlikely to jump straight to the Tories because their views on the Tories are stronger than mine, but the Brexit Party is a doable jump and so many have done.
Lots of talk about Labour voters voting Labour because they vote Labour. Once that instinctive habit is broken - and it already has been in recent non-general elections - its hard to restore. How this plays out will be interesting, but the Labour meltdown across Teesside in May shows me the way to the same on a wider scale across the north. Labour will hold onto seats of course, but how many? And Brexit could take somewhere like Hartlepool where the pro-Brexit and anti-Labour sentiment is visceral.
Doubts about Swinson, doubts about Corbyn but either are better than Johnson.
I cannot belie you actually mean that.
Corbyn is certainly not better than Johnson. By any objective measure he is indeed far worse. He has all of Johnson’s faults in great measure - his incoherence, dishonesty, racism, greed, selfishness and espousal of violence - and a considerable number of others that he keeps all to himself, in particular a total lack of intellectual curiosity or ability.
An historian in the AJP Taylor mould. Opinion posing as fact.
There was no sign of this LibDem surge in the Cambridge local elections in 2019, when the LibDems took zero seats from Labour.
Only if the Labour campaign is a complete disaster will they lose Cambridge. Not impossible, but I think not.
Cambridge seems to be the opposite of most Remainia: a highly competent (and dynamic) Labour council stands in total contrast to the bumbling councils unmanaged by senile Tories that gave the LDs almost a thousand new seats in May.
But in Oxbridge this GE, the Tories' Brexit extremism will dominate the debate, since it fundamentally undermines both cities' cultural and economic health. With Labour's national shilly-shallying just as toxic, that means serious swings to LD.
In most of Britain, this GE won't be single-issue. In and around Oxbridge, it will.
Dodds may be Remainy enough in Oxford East to survive, and Heidi Allen's departure may keep South Cambs Tory. But otherwise: that Remain belt from Cambridge to Bristol is likely to be uninterruptedly yellow on Dec 13
To put it simply there are two key dynamics at work and as yet nobody knows how they will play out:
LEAVE - Conservative vs Brexit. Having spent so much time and effort successfully persuading voters that No Deal is the only real Brexit the spin operation needs to quickly and decisively reverse that and persuade voters that Boris's 90% the same as May's deal is what they want.
If they succeed and the leave vote coalesces around the Tories, then they will do very well. If they don't succeed, then the leave vote divides and the Peterborough byelection becomes instructive where the leave parties win a majority of the account and lose the seat.
REMAIN - And I loosely use this word to describe Labour. "Hold your nose" has been used to describe middle class people voting Labour against their instincts by journalists like Polly Toynbe. Whilst those voters are yet again a concern for Labour the bigger concern has to be in their "traditional" voters where enough of them are Brexiteers as to create a problem. These voters are very unlikely to jump straight to the Tories because their views on the Tories are stronger than mine, but the Brexit Party is a doable jump and so many have done.
Lots of talk about Labour voters voting Labour because they vote Labour. Once that instinctive habit is broken - and it already has been in recent non-general elections - its hard to restore. How this plays out will be interesting, but the Labour meltdown across Teesside in May shows me the way to the same on a wider scale across the north. Labour will hold onto seats of course, but how many? And Brexit could take somewhere like Hartlepool where the pro-Brexit and anti-Labour sentiment is visceral.
Elections generally are about change vs. more of the same. If you want change, Labour has to feature somewhere.
Good news for Jo Swinson. 'The Office of Somewhere or Other' have just announced that leaving the EU with Johnson's deal will cost £70 billion and the BBC Today prog led the news with it. I didn't catch whether this was every year but I imagine it is. All we got as rebuttal was the ever more insipid Jvis saying we would do very well when we're outside.
Accordig to my calculations that's 70 brand new fully equiped hospitals. I feel a BIG RED BUS coming on.....
That is estimated to be smaller by that amount in 10 years without any trade deal with the EU, and from the people who told us we would have a recession immediately after vomiting to leave. I’m gonna take it with a pinch of salt.
Doubts about Swinson, doubts about Corbyn but either are better than Johnson.
I cannot belie you actually mean that.
Corbyn is certainly not better than Johnson. By any objective measure he is indeed far worse. He has all of Johnson’s faults in great measure - his incoherence, dishonesty, racism, greed, selfishness and espousal of violence - and a considerable number of others that he keeps all to himself, in particular a total lack of intellectual curiosity or ability.
An historian in the AJP Taylor mould. Opinion posing as fact.
Those are facts. I can’t help it if you don’t like them.
Oh, people do make things difficult. 24h ago In Cambridge it was "obvious" that I should vote Labour to keep Boris's mob out. Tactical voting is an annoying hobby to practice.
Lib Dems Revoke policy is going to lose as many as they gain . I think Labours polling will pick up, the big unknown is the Brexit Party .
I can’t see any pact with the Tories , I don’t see how Johnson can pivot to a no deal now .
I am not sure re revoke. I am an original reluctant remainer who has supported any deal passing through this parliament ahead of 2nd referendum.
If we have a second "give me a mandate for Brexit" GE, and the country fails to support it, I think that should be it and we should revoke and move on. The 2016 mandated will simply be outdated by two more recent GE mandates.
To put it simply there are two key dynamics at work and as yet nobody knows how they will play out:
LEAVE - Conservative vs Brexit. Having spent so much time and effort successfully persuading voters that No Deal is the only real Brexit the spin operation needs to quickly and decisively reverse that and persuade voters that Boris's 90% the same as May's deal is what they want.
If they succeed and the leave vote coalesces around the Tories, then they will do very well. If they don't succeed, then the leave vote divides and the Peterborough byelection becomes instructive where the leave parties win a majority of the account and lose the seat.
REMAIN - And I loosely use this word to describe Labour. "Hold your nose" has been used to describe middle class people voting Labour against their instincts by journalists like Polly Toynbe. Whilst those voters are yet again a concern for Labour the bigger concern has to be in their "traditional" voters where enough of them are Brexiteers as to create a problem. These voters are very unlikely to jump straight to the Tories because their views on the Tories are stronger than mine, but the Brexit Party is a doable jump and so many have done.
Lots of talk about Labour voters voting Labour because they vote Labour. Once that instinctive habit is broken - and it already has been in recent non-general elections - its hard to restore. How this plays out will be interesting, but the Labour meltdown across Teesside in May shows me the way to the same on a wider scale across the north. Labour will hold onto seats of course, but how many? And Brexit could take somewhere like Hartlepool where the pro-Brexit and anti-Labour sentiment is visceral.
Elections generally are about change vs. more of the same. If you want change, Labour has to feature somewhere.
If you want a change in the standards of decency in this country, then sure, put an anti-semite in Number 10.... If the idea appalls you, don't vote Labour, whatever your view on Brexit.
This is something that hasn't surfaced on here much but has been going through my mind a lot in recent days. There's an old mantra that parties at internal war lose elections. The Conservatives are NOT united and they are certainly NOT united under Johnson. Anyone trying to gloss it and tell you otherwise is living on another planet. Beneath the surface is a massive deep fissure running through this party.
I will make this one prediction now: that disunity will show through despite the best efforts of Cummings to cover it up.
To put it simply there are two key dynamics at work and as yet nobody knows how they will play out:
LEAVE - Conservative vs Brexit. Having spent so much time and effort successfully persuading voters that No Deal is the only real Brexit the spin operation needs to quickly and decisively reverse that and persuade voters that Boris's 90% the same as May's deal is what they want.
If they succeed and the leave vote coalesces around the Tories, then they will do very well. If they don't succeed, then the leave vote divides and the Peterborough byelection becomes instructive where the leave parties win a majority of the account and lose the seat.
REMAIN - And I loosely use this word to describe Labour. "Hold your nose" has been used to describe middle class people voting Labour against their instincts by journalists like Polly Toynbe. Whilst those voters are yet again a concern for Labour the bigger concern has to be in their "traditional" voters where enough of them are Brexiteers as to create a problem. These voters are very unlikely to jump straight to the Tories because their views on the Tories are stronger than mine, but the Brexit Party is a doable jump and so many have done.
Lots of talk about Labour voters voting Labour because they vote Labour. Once that instinctive habit is broken - and it already has been in recent non-general elections - its hard to restore. How this plays out will be interesting, but the Labour meltdown across Teesside in May shows me the way to the same on a wider scale across the north. Labour will hold onto seats of course, but how many? And Brexit could take somewhere like Hartlepool where the pro-Brexit and anti-Labour sentiment is visceral.
Elections generally are about change vs. more of the same. If you want change, Labour has to feature somewhere.
If you want a change in the standards of decency in this country, then sure, put an anti-semite in Number 10.... If the idea appalls you, don't vote Labour, whatever your view on Brexit.
Certainly don’t back a government that acts unlawfully to force its will.
The original ' Remain Alliance ' with its associated Electoral Commission approved " Unite to Remain " ballot paper tagline was based on a single candidate per constituency standing. Both Labour and the SNP confirmed early on they would contest every seat in GB/Scotland regardless. In the absence of any quid pro quo they weren't included in the initative. Additionally Labour didn't want to use the " Unite to Remain " tagline.
*But* in fairness in Ceredigion Plaid and the Lib Dems are both contesting the seat. It was judged unnecessery as no leave party is in contention. Once you start doing that then dozens of LD/SNP/LAB seats are excluded.
Then the Greens threw a wobbly denying they signed off on it and the leaked roll out schedule never happened. Then the Lib Dems unilaterally came out for Revoke which went well beyond the common " Unite for Remain " position. Then the Greens attacked and didn't match the ' Revoke ' policy. In the last 48hrs Swinson appears to have rowed back further in her language on how many seats the Lib Dems will stand down in.
In it's original form it's clearly fallen apart. Although a much shorter list of seats will see some cooperation.
Lib Dems Revoke policy is going to lose as many as they gain . I think Labours polling will pick up, the big unknown is the Brexit Party .
I can’t see any pact with the Tories , I don’t see how Johnson can pivot to a no deal now .
The one upside is that if Tories campaign on the deal and the BXP on no deal, the result should put no deal to bed once and for all.
The most likely path to no deal being inflicted on us is actually a hung parliament where the DUP is against literally everything possible including extension and nothing else can get a majority.
To put it simply there are two key dynamics at work and as yet nobody knows how they will play out:
LEAVE - Conservative vs Brexit. Having spent so much time and effort successfully persuading voters that No Deal is the only real Brexit the spin operation needs to quickly and decisively reverse that and persuade voters that Boris's 90% the same as May's deal is what they want.
If they succeed and the leave vote coalesces around the Tories, then they will do very well. If they don't succeed, then the leave vote divides and the Peterborough byelection becomes instructive where the leave parties win a majority of the account and lose the seat.
REMAIN - And I loosely use this word to describe Labour. "Hold your nose" has been used to describe middle class people voting Labour against their instincts by journalists like Polly Toynbe. Whilst those voters are yet again a concern for Labour the bigger concern has to be in their "traditional" voters where enough of them are Brexiteers as to create a problem. These voters are very unlikely to jump straight to the Tories because their views on the Tories are stronger than mine, but the Brexit Party is a doable jump and so many have done.
Lots of talk about Labour voters voting Labour because they vote Labour. Once that instinctive habit is broken - and it already has been in recent non-general elections - its hard to restore. How this plays out will be interesting, but the Labour meltdown across Teesside in May shows me the way to the same on a wider scale across the north. Labour will hold onto seats of course, but how many? And Brexit could take somewhere like Hartlepool where the pro-Brexit and anti-Labour sentiment is visceral.
Elections generally are about change vs. more of the same. If you want change, Labour has to feature somewhere.
If you want a change in the standards of decency in this country, then sure, put an anti-semite in Number 10.... If the idea appalls you, don't vote Labour, whatever your view on Brexit.
Your tergiversation regarding identity politics is really quite convincing.
Lib Dems Revoke policy is going to lose as many as they gain . I think Labours polling will pick up, the big unknown is the Brexit Party .
I can’t see any pact with the Tories , I don’t see how Johnson can pivot to a no deal now .
The one upside is that if Tories campaign on the deal and the BXP on no deal, the result should put no deal to bed once and for all.
The most likely path to no deal being inflicted on us is actually a hung parliament where the DUP is against literally everything possible including extension and nothing else can get a majority.
The DUP is unlikely to come back in the same numbers, with any luck.
This is something that hasn't surfaced on here much but has been going through my mind a lot in recent days. There's an old mantra that parties at internal war lose elections. The Conservatives are NOT united and they are certainly NOT united under Johnson. Anyone trying to gloss it and tell you otherwise is living on another planet. Beneath the surface is a massive deep fissure running through this party.
I will make this one prediction now: that disunity will show through despite the best efforts of Cummings to cover it up.
This is something that hasn't surfaced on here much but has been going through my mind a lot in recent days. There's an old mantra that parties at internal war lose elections. The Conservatives are NOT united and they are certainly NOT united under Johnson. Anyone trying to gloss it and tell you otherwise is living on another planet. Beneath the surface is a massive deep fissure running through this party.
I will make this one prediction now: that disunity will show through despite the best efforts of Cummings to cover it up.
I think the Tories have a more united position and message than Labour do, though I take your point.
Fundamentally both leaders are marmite (albeit one diet Marmite and one full strength...), and combine that with precarious positions with Brexit compromises and it looks very difficult to describe them as united. What remains unknown is how their precarious positions on the issue of the election will hold up to the dynamic forces of a campaign and to events/reality getting in the way.
There was no sign of this LibDem surge in the Cambridge local elections in 2019, when the LibDems took zero seats from Labour.
Only if the Labour campaign is a complete disaster will they lose Cambridge. Not impossible, but I think not.
Cambridge seems to be the opposite of most Remainia: a highly competent (and dynamic) Labour council stands in total contrast to the bumbling councils unmanaged by senile Tories that gave the LDs almost a thousand new seats in May.
But in Oxbridge this GE, the Tories' Brexit extremism will dominate the debate, since it fundamentally undermines both cities' cultural and economic health. With Labour's national shilly-shallying just as toxic, that means serious swings to LD.
In most of Britain, this GE won't be single-issue. In and around Oxbridge, it will.
Dodds may be Remainy enough in Oxford East to survive, and Heidi Allen's departure may keep South Cambs Tory. But otherwise: that Remain belt from Cambridge to Bristol is likely to be uninterruptedly yellow on Dec 13
I agree with you about Cambridge's Labour Council -- a vast improvement on its truly dreadful LibDem predecessor.
It is also vastly better than Oxford's Labour Council, which in my experience is one of the worst in England (though not as bad as the highly corrupt South Walian Labour Councils).
Cambridge constituency is the University wards (half the seat) and the poorer wards to the East (natural Labour territory, Abbey, Arbury, Kings Hedges, Coleridge, Cherry Hinton).
Labour probably need to take just 1/3 of the University vote to win the seat as they have an overwhelming majority in the East. I think they'll do that easily enough.
To put it simply there are two key dynamics at work and as yet nobody knows how they will play out:
LEAVE - Conservative vs Brexit. Having spent so much time and effort successfully persuading voters that No Deal is the only real Brexit the spin operation needs to quickly and decisively reverse that and persuade voters that Boris's 90% the same as May's deal is what they want.
If they succeed and the leave vote coalesces around the Tories, then they will do very well. If they don't succeed, then the leave vote divides and the Peterborough byelection becomes instructive where the leave parties win a majority of the account and lose the seat.
REMAIN - And I loosely use this word to describe Labour. "Hold your nose" has been used to describe middle class people voting Labour against their instincts by journalists like Polly Toynbe. Whilst those voters are yet again a concern for Labour the bigger concern has to be in their "traditional" voters where enough of them are Brexiteers as to create a problem. These voters are very unlikely to jump straight to the Tories because their views on the Tories are stronger than mine, but the Brexit Party is a doable jump and so many have done.
Lots of talk about Labour voters voting Labour because they vote Labour. Once that instinctive habit is broken - and it already has been in recent non-general elections - its hard to restore. How this plays out will be interesting, but the Labour meltdown across Teesside in May shows me the way to the same on a wider scale across the north. Labour will hold onto seats of course, but how many? And Brexit could take somewhere like Hartlepool where the pro-Brexit and anti-Labour sentiment is visceral.
Elections generally are about change vs. more of the same. If you want change, Labour has to feature somewhere.
If you want a change in the standards of decency in this country, then sure, put an anti-semite in Number 10.... If the idea appalls you, don't vote Labour, whatever your view on Brexit.
Your tergiversation regarding identity politics is really quite convincing.
Oh, people do make things difficult. 24h ago In Cambridge it was "obvious" that I should vote Labour to keep Boris's mob out. Tactical voting is an annoying hobby to practice.
The Tories won’t win Cambridge. You can vote for a Remain party, or you can vote Labour and hope that the MP has the courage to break the Labour whip as and when the time comes.
Mr. (Miss? Sorry, I keep forgetting), that's a fair point, and odd in two ways.
Labour MPs keep bleating that enough is enough etc regarding the situation within their party, now they're campaigning for Corbyn the unacceptable to be PM.
The Conservatives were almost certain to be split one way or the other (the ERG etc going to Farage in the alternate scenario). That doesn't mean Boris Johnson isn't an egotistical buffoon, of course, but it would've been an astounding political feat for them not to be split. Electorally, it's probably better for them to lose a few more pro-EU MPs, as that both shores up the sceptical flank from BP, and avoids fishing in the same pool as Labour and the Lib Dems, whilst having most of the sceptical pool to themselves. [The other view would be that Faragist vehicles are rubbish at FPTP, so the Conservatives would have almost all the sceptical vote anyway, and adding more pro-EU votes to that would've been fantastic].
Very hard to call this election. I wonder how the broadcasters will try and dictate debating terms.
Lib Dems Revoke policy is going to lose as many as they gain
My experience on the doorstep's quite different. Those upset believe the LDs oppose a Ref2: once you explain "Revoke" applies only if there's an absolute LD majority - which there clearly won't be - and that without a majority we want a Ref2, most Remain-friendly voters are completely happy.
In spite of their new communications skills, the LDs have simply failed so far to get a highly nuanced policy across (not least because the Brexiteer-owned print media keep misrepresenting the policy). That ought to be where the LDs' superior door-knocking resources will be a real asset in target seats.
If, of course, the voters open their doors in a midwinter campaign.
It would be interesting to see % of women MPs under 55 who are stepping down vs male MPs under 55 who are stepping down. I doubt it reflects well on our society.
Lib Dems Revoke policy is going to lose as many as they gain
My experience on the doorstep's quite different. Those upset believe the LDs oppose a Ref2: once you explain "Revoke" applies only if there's an absolute LD majority - which there clearly won't be - and that without a majority we want a Ref2, most Remain-friendly voters are completely happy.
In spite of their new communications skills, the LDs have simply failed so far to get a highly nuanced policy across (not least because the Brexiteer-owned print media keep misrepresenting the policy). That ought to be where the LDs' superior door-knocking resources will be a real asset in target seats.
If, of course, the voters open their doors in a midwinter campaign.
Oh, people do make things difficult. 24h ago In Cambridge it was "obvious" that I should vote Labour to keep Boris's mob out. Tactical voting is an annoying hobby to practice.
With the Tories on 6% there, I wouldn't worry too much and choose whichever of LD, Green or Labour that you fancy. Tories will probably lose their deposit.
Lib Dems Revoke policy is going to lose as many as they gain
My experience on the doorstep's quite different. Those upset believe the LDs oppose a Ref2: once you explain "Revoke" applies only if there's an absolute LD majority - which there clearly won't be - and that without a majority we want a Ref2, most Remain-friendly voters are completely happy.
In spite of their new communications skills, the LDs have simply failed so far to get a highly nuanced policy across (not least because the Brexiteer-owned print media keep misrepresenting the policy). That ought to be where the LDs' superior door-knocking resources will be a real asset in target seats.
If, of course, the voters open their doors in a midwinter campaign.
The Revoke policy will win some Remainers from Labour and a few from the Tories to the LDs but lose some Leavers to the Tories and the Brexit Party
This is something that hasn't surfaced on here much but has been going through my mind a lot in recent days. There's an old mantra that parties at internal war lose elections. The Conservatives are NOT united and they are certainly NOT united under Johnson. Anyone trying to gloss it and tell you otherwise is living on another planet. Beneath the surface is a massive deep fissure running through this party.
I will make this one prediction now: that disunity will show through despite the best efforts of Cummings to cover it up.
Oh, people do make things difficult. 24h ago In Cambridge it was "obvious" that I should vote Labour to keep Boris's mob out. Tactical voting is an annoying hobby to practice.
The Tories won’t win Cambridge. You can vote for a Remain party, or you can vote Labour and hope that the MP has the courage to break the Labour whip as and when the time comes.
On that poll the Tories are polling less than half their national voteshare in Cambridge, indeed I expect a few Tories will tactically vote LD to beat Labour in the seat
Lib Dems Revoke policy is going to lose as many as they gain
My experience on the doorstep's quite different. Those upset believe the LDs oppose a Ref2: once you explain "Revoke" applies only if there's an absolute LD majority - which there clearly won't be - and that without a majority we want a Ref2, most Remain-friendly voters are completely happy.
In spite of their new communications skills, the LDs have simply failed so far to get a highly nuanced policy across (not least because the Brexiteer-owned print media keep misrepresenting the policy). That ought to be where the LDs' superior door-knocking resources will be a real asset in target seats.
If, of course, the voters open their doors in a midwinter campaign.
I think both the LD and Lab policies work when one explains them on the doorstep, but we both have the problem that we're not going to be able to talk to everyone, and we're competing with a very simple message. With luck both parties will be sensible and concentrate resources on genuine targets/seats at risk. The anti-Tory parties do have the advantage that I think we've got more door-knockers indifferent to cold and dark than the elderly Tories. I'll be taking a week off and look forward to the usual 12-hour/day stints.
It would be interesting to see % of women MPs under 55 who are stepping down vs male MPs under 55 who are stepping down. I doubt it reflects well on our society.
If your vote isn't returned by 10 pm the law is crystal clear. It can't and won't be counted. Once election results are declared there is no way of overturning them save for an Election Court ruling.
From the Electoral Commission website - 'Returning your ballot paper
Once you've got it, mark your vote on the ballot paper and make sure you send it back so that it arrives by 10pm on election day. If it arrives later than this, your vote won't be counted.
You can hand your postal ballot in at your local council on the day if you’re not able to send it back by post in advance
Under English law and the posting rule a contract is made as soon as a letter is posted, so provided a postal vote has been sent and postmarked before polling day it must be counted under the law as a contract has been made with the Electoral Commission to count that vote.
If not the Electoral Commission can be sued for beach of contract under English common law for failing to uphold its offer of a vote in an election accepted from the time of postage.
This is utterly and completely wrong. UK electoral law is utterly clear. Your postal vote needs to arrive by 10 pm on polling day. If it doesn't it isn't and legally can't be counted. Even if that wasn't true, which it is, counting late votes isn't a remedy available to the general courts because overturning election results can only be done by Election Courts.
Hyufd seems to look at one area of law and not consider if another area of it has different rules which take precedence. I'm no lawyer but I've seen plenty of mon lawyers find a line here or a line there and confidently state it destroys someone else's case, they dont consider the wider context or notice other more Important rules in their eagerness.
To put it simply there are two key dynamics at work and as yet nobody knows how they will play out:
LEAVE - Conservative vs Brexit. Having spent so much time and effort successfully persuading voters that No Deal is the only real Brexit the spin operation needs to quickly and decisively reverse that and persuade voters that Boris's 90% the same as May's deal is what they want.
If they succeed and the leave vote coalesces around the Tories, then they will do very well. If they don't succeed, then the leave vote divides and the Peterborough byelection becomes instructive where the leave parties win a majority of the account and lose the seat.
REMAIN - And I loosely use this word to describe Labour. "Hold your nose" has been used to describe middle class people voting Labour against their instincts by journalists like Polly Toynbe. Whilst those voters are yet again a concern for Labour the bigger concern has to be in their "traditional" voters where enough of them are Brexiteers as to create a problem. These voters are very unlikely to jump straight to the Tories because their views on the Tories are stronger than mine, but the Brexit Party is a doable jump and so many have done.
Lots of talk about Labour voters voting Labour because they vote Labour. Once that instinctive habit is broken - and it already has been in recent non-general elections - its hard to restore. How this plays out will be interesting, but the Labour meltdown across Teesside in May shows me the way to the same on a wider scale across the north. Labour will hold onto seats of course, but how many? And Brexit could take somewhere like Hartlepool where the pro-Brexit and anti-Labour sentiment is visceral.
Elections generally are about change vs. more of the same. If you want change, Labour has to feature somewhere.
If you want a change in the standards of decency in this country, then sure, put an anti-semite in Number 10.... If the idea appalls you, don't vote Labour, whatever your view on Brexit.
If Guido was the arbiter of who is or isn't an anti semite then you might have a point. I have yet to see any evidence that I find convincing.
Good news for Jo Swinson. 'The Office of Somewhere or Other' have just announced that leaving the EU with Johnson's deal will cost £70 billion and the BBC Today prog led the news with it. I didn't catch whether this was every year but I imagine it is. All we got as rebuttal was the ever more insipid Jvis saying we would do very well when we're outside.
Accordig to my calculations that's 70 brand new fully equiped hospitals. I feel a BIG RED BUS coming on.....
That is estimated to be smaller by that amount in 10 years without any trade deal with the EU, and from the people who told us we would have a recession immediately after vomiting to leave.
Lib Dems Revoke policy is going to lose as many as they gain
My experience on the doorstep's quite different. Those upset believe the LDs oppose a Ref2: once you explain "Revoke" applies only if there's an absolute LD majority - which there clearly won't be - and that without a majority we want a Ref2, most Remain-friendly voters are completely happy.
In spite of their new communications skills, the LDs have simply failed so far to get a highly nuanced policy across (not least because the Brexiteer-owned print media keep misrepresenting the policy). That ought to be where the LDs' superior door-knocking resources will be a real asset in target seats.
If, of course, the voters open their doors in a midwinter campaign.
I think both the LD and Lab policies work when one explains them on the doorstep, but we both have the problem that we're not going to be able to talk to everyone, and we're competing with a very simple message. With luck both parties will be sensible and concentrate resources on genuine targets/seats at risk. The anti-Tory parties do have the advantage that I think we've got more door-knockers indifferent to cold and dark than the elderly Tories. I'll be taking a week off and look forward to the usual 12-hour/day stints.
I hope the anti Tory vote rememberers how to organise itself effectively. If not, 1983 beckons.
This is something that hasn't surfaced on here much but has been going through my mind a lot in recent days. There's an old mantra that parties at internal war lose elections. The Conservatives are NOT united and they are certainly NOT united under Johnson. Anyone trying to gloss it and tell you otherwise is living on another planet. Beneath the surface is a massive deep fissure running through this party.
I will make this one prediction now: that disunity will show through despite the best efforts of Cummings to cover it up.
Lib Dems Revoke policy is going to lose as many as they gain
My experience on the doorstep's quite different. Those upset believe the LDs oppose a Ref2: once you explain "Revoke" applies only if there's an absolute LD majority - which there clearly won't be - and that without a majority we want a Ref2, most Remain-friendly voters are completely happy.
In spite of their new communications skills, the LDs have simply failed so far to get a highly nuanced policy across (not least because the Brexiteer-owned print media keep misrepresenting the policy). That ought to be where the LDs' superior door-knocking resources will be a real asset in target seats.
If, of course, the voters open their doors in a midwinter campaign.
I did a door-knocking session earlier this year which turned into a blizzard. We stopped as doors failed to be opened as the snow fell...
As for referendum and revoke, I agree that the cut through has been hard - Labour putting out the message that LibDems oppose a peoples vote may have contributed (and now the counter infograohic pointing to the 17 motions put up by the LDs supporting PV).
The other dynamic. This election looks inside the bubble to have been dragged out of the MPs - yesterday they voted for a date that they hadn't supported the day before. The Tories desperately wanted an election ("not another one!"), Labour desperately wanted an election but desperately didn't want to vote for one.
I certainly intend to have some fun locally pointing out to wavering and former Labour supporters that the party and the MP did everything they could to avoid the election. In these frenzied times of "will of the people" nonsense avoidance of democracy is an issue...
The real fun and games don't begin now, of course. They begin on Friday 13th of December, when the Tories fall just short of a majority and it quickly becomes apparent that forming a viable Government is impossible.
Nobody will work with the Conservatives, and a badly weakened Labour will be hit with unacceptable and/or contradictory demands (I'm especially looking forward to the part where the SNP demands Indyref2 and the Lib Dems veto that idea, and block Corbyn as Prime Minister for good measure.) About the only thing the Remain Alliance will be able to agree on will be the necessity to revoke A50 in panic when we get to late January and the EU27 refuse yet another extension.
Where this leaves us come the March 2020 General Election, who can say?
The real fun and games don't begin now, of course. They begin on Friday 13th of December, when the Tories fall just short of a majority and it quickly becomes apparent that forming a viable Government is impossible.
Nobody will work with the Conservatives, and a badly weakened Labour will be hit with unacceptable and/or contradictory demands (I'm especially looking forward to the part where the SNP demands Indyref2 and the Lib Dems veto that idea, and block Corbyn as Prime Minister for good measure.) About the only thing the Remain Alliance will be able to agree on will be the necessity to revoke A50 in panic when we get to late January and the EU27 refuse yet another extension.
Where this leaves us come the March 2020 General Election, who can say?
Stephen Lloyd, who has consistently voted for withdrawal agreements at every step, is going to campaign for re-election under a Remain/Stop Brexit banner:
I rather expect a modest Tory majority at this point. I think the get Brexit done line will resonate with people who didn't actually care much either way but are sick to the back teeth of it. The Brexit Party and Labour are basically offering yet more Brexit whilst the try to persuade the EU to once again re-open negotiations for a different kind of deal. Neither are credible. The Lib Dems policy is illiberal and undemocratic but at least it is clear and decisive.
The BBC headline is Boris saying this will be tough. I am not detecting the frankly demented arrogance and hubris of May in 2017. Boris will actually campaign and he is rather good at it. Of course many Tory shibboleths will be discarded, not least of which is any real grip on public spending. Javid won't get his budget after all. Probably just as well if his financial statement was anything to go by. If Boris gets a clear majority I frankly wonder if he will keep his post.
I don't think BoZo is "rather good at it" from the bits we have seen of him avoiding scrutiny. He can serve meals to supine patients and paint with primary school children, but flips at the more tricky stuff.
I expect that he will get a small majority and prove to be the most disasterous Prime Ministers in modern history, particularly for Scottish Conservatives.
The Tories are still polling higher in Scotland than they did under David Cameron or John Major in 1997 under Boris
This is something that hasn't surfaced on here much but has been going through my mind a lot in recent days. There's an old mantra that parties at internal war lose elections. The Conservatives are NOT united and they are certainly NOT united under Johnson. Anyone trying to gloss it and tell you otherwise is living on another planet. Beneath the surface is a massive deep fissure running through this party.
I will make this one prediction now: that disunity will show through despite the best efforts of Cummings to cover it up.
Dominic Grieve isn't a Tory. Who cares how much "disunity" he displays?
Ironically, he was slung out precisely because the Tories weren't united and it showed. With him, Hammond and a few others gone, basically everyone standing as a Tory will be on message. Meanwhile, a decent chunk of Labour MPs will be pretending their manifesto commitment to Ref2 isn't serious, and most of the rest will be talking about how they'll be enthusiastically backing remain. Neither of which is official policy.
I can see that for life-long but now disillusioned Labour voters, it gives them a continuing involvement in politics. But it is an anti-Labour vote, rather than being for anything. Nasty weather - they probably stay home and watch the telly. Does Labour no good, does the Tories no harm.
For former Tories who want Brexit - voting for the Brexit Party also gives them a continuing involvement in politics. But how many of them want a really, really pure form of Brexit - one that risks no Brexit at all? With added side-salad of Corbyn. And with added far-right bedfollows, for whom BNP to BXP is just a letter change.
I suspect there are still about 8% of the electorate who have to make a choice: BXP or Tory? Sure, Farage is a firebrand preacher. But Boris is more like a country Church of England vicar, who will see them safely off to Brexit heaven. He's even quite relaxed about whether you pay attention to most of the 10 Commandments.
Late surge? BXP to Conservative is where I'll be putting my money.
This is something that hasn't surfaced on here much but has been going through my mind a lot in recent days. There's an old mantra that parties at internal war lose elections. The Conservatives are NOT united and they are certainly NOT united under Johnson. Anyone trying to gloss it and tell you otherwise is living on another planet. Beneath the surface is a massive deep fissure running through this party.
I will make this one prediction now: that disunity will show through despite the best efforts of Cummings to cover it up.
This patently nonsense. Grieve is no longer a conservative. He has proved that there is no compromise or deal for him, and is not willing to support anything that is. Vaizey and others lost the whip because they opposed No deal and didn’t think Boris would get one. Willing to vote for a deal and compromise. Therefore Boris now has approx 300 pretty loyal and united MPs. That is by far the biggest group in Parliament.
Compare and contrast to Labour trying to deselect sitting MPs and MPs openly contradicting their leader in the house. You can criticise Boris for many things but he has unified the Tory party behind him for the first time in years.
I rather expect a modest Tory majority at this point. I think the get Brexit done line will resonate with people who didn't actually care much either way but are sick to the back teeth of it. The Brexit Party and Labour are basically offering yet more Brexit whilst the try to persuade the EU to once again re-open negotiations for a different kind of deal. Neither are credible. The Lib Dems policy is illiberal and undemocratic but at least it is clear and decisive.
The BBC headline is Boris saying this will be tough. I am not detecting the frankly demented arrogance and hubris of May in 2017. Boris will actually campaign and he is rather good at it. Of course many Tory shibboleths will be discarded, not least of which is any real grip on public spending. Javid won't get his budget after all. Probably just as well if his financial statement was anything to go by. If Boris gets a clear majority I frankly wonder if he will keep his post.
Yes, the trouble is that works both ways.
If it is all about Brexit (and I’m not convinced it will be) then the voters could polarise around the LDs and Tories.
Try bigging up Tory Swinsons policies instead of the hate fest
For once I agree with you. Rochdale’s endless negging is utterly tiresome.
I think he used to compare the Tories to evil killers guilty of state manslaughter.
Or something.
Best ignored.
People die under Tory "welfare" policies. Thats a fact. Plentry of reportage of disabled veterans and seriously ill people left to die in their own filth whilst Tory politicians defend the system. Sorry if harsh reality offends you.
As for my negging, strip away my pejorative language and look dispassionately at what is in front of you. The Labour Party civil war is real and is nasty. The attempts to deselct MPs have all failed and there is a mob of Labour supporters very visible on Twitter angry about it. The cycle of select an anti-semite continues, the latest being the charmer unveiled to run in Poplar and Limehouse. The reality vs optimism war continues. Corbyn in making his 2nd reading speech yesterday gives way to one of his own MPs who openly and directly contradicts what Corbyn was saying seconds before.
I despise the man - you can all see that. But my personal "negging" doesn't negate the evidence in front of us
Lol. There he is!
Hope the LDs enjoy having a total member as a member.
It was predicted last time and didnt happen, but if labour do go backwards, how will the Corbynite masses react? They genuinely seem to believe with fiery passion that only Jez can save this country and that he will win - what do they do if they not only dont, but are smashed?
But like others I think theres shy labour colouring the voting intentions. Masses will return home to labour like putting on an old jacket.
I rather expect a modest Tory majority at this point. I think the get Brexit done line will resonate with people who didn't actually care much either way but are sick to the back teeth of it. The Brexit Party and Labour are basically offering yet more Brexit whilst the try to persuade the EU to once again re-open negotiations for a different kind of deal. Neither are credible. The Lib Dems policy is illiberal and undemocratic but at least it is clear and decisive.
The BBC headline is Boris saying this will be tough. I am not detecting the frankly demented arrogance and hubris of May in 2017. Boris will actually campaign and he is rather good at it. Of course many Tory shibboleths will be discarded, not least of which is any real grip on public spending. Javid won't get his budget after all. Probably just as well if his financial statement was anything to go by. If Boris gets a clear majority I frankly wonder if he will keep his post.
Yes, the trouble is that works both ways.
If it is all about Brexit (and I’m not convinced it will be) then the voters could polarise around the LDs and Tories.
Which works fine for Boris, given how far back the LibDems are in most seats - and how many Con-Lab marginals there are.
I rather expect a modest Tory majority at this point. I think the get Brexit done line will resonate with people who didn't actually care much either way but are sick to the back teeth of it. The Brexit Party and Labour are basically offering yet more Brexit whilst the try to persuade the EU to once again re-open negotiations for a different kind of deal. Neither are credible. The Lib Dems policy is illiberal and undemocratic but at least it is clear and decisive.
The BBC headline is Boris saying this will be tough. I am not detecting the frankly demented arrogance and hubris of May in 2017. Boris will actually campaign and he is rather good at it. Of course many Tory shibboleths will be discarded, not least of which is any real grip on public spending. Javid won't get his budget after all. Probably just as well if his financial statement was anything to go by. If Boris gets a clear majority I frankly wonder if he will keep his post.
Yes, the trouble is that works both ways.
If it is all about Brexit (and I’m not convinced it will be) then the voters could polarise around the LDs and Tories.
I think the Tories will win a majority (workable, but not big).
Who really, really wants to win this election? Who really, really wanted the election in the first place?
Answers: Boris. Boris.
Boris will promise what he has to, he will do what he has to, to win. It will be absolutely shameless, but he is very good at shamelessness.
Stephen Lloyd, who has consistently voted for withdrawal agreements at every step, is going to campaign for re-election under a Remain/Stop Brexit banner:
Comments
Also about the only elected representative or public employee who came out of it well was Nigel Jones, then LibDem MP for Cheltenham.
Cambridge constituency is the heavily Remain-voting University wards and the Labour-dominated poorer Leave-voting wards in the East of the City.
There was no sign of this LibDem surge in the Cambridge local elections in 2019, when the LibDems took zero seats from Labour.
Only if the Labour campaign is a complete disaster will they lose Cambridge. Not impossible, but I think not.
He has no more principles than Johnson. He just has fooled more people into not noticing it.
Since the US-Israel FTA in 1985, the US has ratified no FTA in less than 6 years from the end of technical negotiations - and has concluded no technical negotiation in less than 2 years. And no US FTA has started with the Democrats promising to refuse it ratification - as they have with the Johnson-Trump unicorn.
Betting PostMight not have time for this daftness over the weekend (off-chance there won't be any F1 blogs, we'll see) so here's a continuation of the football daftness from last time. As an aside, I'm aware of the Manchester City match, but 1.08 isn't worth it, I think.
All bets are on Ladbrokes, for tiny, tiny stakes. Disclaimer: I know nothing about football.
Draw - Bournemouth/Man United 3.4
Arsenal to beat Wolves 1.72
Liverpool to beat Villa 1.36
Brighton to beat Norwich 1.75
Draw - Sheffield United/Burnley 3.1
Draw - West Ham/Newcastle 3.5
Chelsea to beat Watford 1.7
And the accumulator (yes, yes, unlikely to win, but I'm playing for bottle tops) is 253.42 (that's 297.96 with boost, if you have it).
Or something.
Best ignored.
People die under Tory "welfare" policies. Thats a fact. Plentry of reportage of disabled veterans and seriously ill people left to die in their own filth whilst Tory politicians defend the system. Sorry if harsh reality offends you.
As for my negging, strip away my pejorative language and look dispassionately at what is in front of you. The Labour Party civil war is real and is nasty. The attempts to deselct MPs have all failed and there is a mob of Labour supporters very visible on Twitter angry about it. The cycle of select an anti-semite continues, the latest being the charmer unveiled to run in Poplar and Limehouse. The reality vs optimism war continues. Corbyn in making his 2nd reading speech yesterday gives way to one of his own MPs who openly and directly contradicts what Corbyn was saying seconds before.
I despise the man - you can all see that. But my personal "negging" doesn't negate the evidence in front of us
I expect that he will get a small majority and prove to be the most disasterous Prime Ministers in modern history, particularly for Scottish Conservatives.
That would be rather interesting. You would see some change.
Not necessarily. There are a lot of Tory Home Counties seats where the LibDems are the only realistic alternative victor, yet where the LDs have fallen from their usual second to third place in the aftermath of the coalition. For example, the LibDems are the only ones who could unseat JRM - as both local and Euro elections demonstrate - yet the Labour candidate who was second last time has potential to muddy the water.
Mathematical consistency would suggest that the Conservatives may underperform, and Labour and Liberal Democrats outperform, the national swings in other seats. Like Conservative/Labour or Conservative/Liberal Democrat marginals, perhaps?
Lib Dems Revoke policy is going to lose as many as they gain . I think Labours polling will pick up, the big unknown is the Brexit Party .
I can’t see any pact with the Tories , I don’t see how Johnson can pivot to a no deal now .
Depends on the numbers, of course, but if Labour go backwards far enough then he might just give up.
He visibly has not enjoyed the recent infighting over Brexit. As a not very bright follower of, and tireless advocate for far left dogma, he’s uncomfortable and confused when dealing with an issue which cuts across traditional right/left lines.
And deciding that there must be another general election is not, as we have seen, in any one leader’s gift.
Can I put it on the side of a tricycle?
LEAVE - Conservative vs Brexit. Having spent so much time and effort successfully persuading voters that No Deal is the only real Brexit the spin operation needs to quickly and decisively reverse that and persuade voters that Boris's 90% the same as May's deal is what they want.
If they succeed and the leave vote coalesces around the Tories, then they will do very well. If they don't succeed, then the leave vote divides and the Peterborough byelection becomes instructive where the leave parties win a majority of the account and lose the seat.
REMAIN - And I loosely use this word to describe Labour. "Hold your nose" has been used to describe middle class people voting Labour against their instincts by journalists like Polly Toynbe. Whilst those voters are yet again a concern for Labour the bigger concern has to be in their "traditional" voters where enough of them are Brexiteers as to create a problem. These voters are very unlikely to jump straight to the Tories because their views on the Tories are stronger than mine, but the Brexit Party is a doable jump and so many have done.
Lots of talk about Labour voters voting Labour because they vote Labour. Once that instinctive habit is broken - and it already has been in recent non-general elections - its hard to restore. How this plays out will be interesting, but the Labour meltdown across Teesside in May shows me the way to the same on a wider scale across the north. Labour will hold onto seats of course, but how many? And Brexit could take somewhere like Hartlepool where the pro-Brexit and anti-Labour sentiment is visceral.
But in Oxbridge this GE, the Tories' Brexit extremism will dominate the debate, since it fundamentally undermines both cities' cultural and economic health. With Labour's national shilly-shallying just as toxic, that means serious swings to LD.
In most of Britain, this GE won't be single-issue. In and around Oxbridge, it will.
Dodds may be Remainy enough in Oxford East to survive, and Heidi Allen's departure may keep South Cambs Tory. But otherwise: that Remain belt from Cambridge to Bristol is likely to be uninterruptedly yellow on Dec 13
If we have a second "give me a mandate for Brexit" GE, and the country fails to support it, I think that should be it and we should revoke and move on. The 2016 mandated will simply be outdated by two more recent GE mandates.
I will make this one prediction now: that disunity will show through despite the best efforts of Cummings to cover it up.
https://twitter.com/rtruscott/status/1189446171544248322?s=20
*But* in fairness in Ceredigion Plaid and the Lib Dems are both contesting the seat. It was judged unnecessery as no leave party is in contention. Once you start doing that then dozens of LD/SNP/LAB seats are excluded.
Then the Greens threw a wobbly denying they signed off on it and the leaked roll out schedule never happened. Then the Lib Dems unilaterally came out for Revoke which went well beyond the common " Unite for Remain " position. Then the Greens attacked and didn't match the ' Revoke ' policy. In the last 48hrs Swinson appears to have rowed back further in her language on how many seats the Lib Dems will stand down in.
In it's original form it's clearly fallen apart. Although a much shorter list of seats will see some cooperation.
https://twitter.com/mimsdavies/status/1189448166594285578?s=20
Fundamentally both leaders are marmite (albeit one diet Marmite and one full strength...), and combine that with precarious positions with Brexit compromises and it looks very difficult to describe them as united. What remains unknown is how their precarious positions on the issue of the election will hold up to the dynamic forces of a campaign and to events/reality getting in the way.
It is also vastly better than Oxford's Labour Council, which in my experience is one of the worst in England (though not as bad as the highly corrupt South Walian Labour Councils).
Cambridge constituency is the University wards (half the seat) and the poorer wards to the East (natural Labour territory, Abbey, Arbury, Kings Hedges, Coleridge, Cherry Hinton).
Labour probably need to take just 1/3 of the University vote to win the seat as they have an overwhelming majority in the East. I think they'll do that easily enough.
The Tories won’t win Cambridge. You can vote for a Remain party, or you can vote Labour and hope that the MP has the courage to break the Labour whip as and when the time comes.
Have a good morning.
Labour MPs keep bleating that enough is enough etc regarding the situation within their party, now they're campaigning for Corbyn the unacceptable to be PM.
The Conservatives were almost certain to be split one way or the other (the ERG etc going to Farage in the alternate scenario). That doesn't mean Boris Johnson isn't an egotistical buffoon, of course, but it would've been an astounding political feat for them not to be split. Electorally, it's probably better for them to lose a few more pro-EU MPs, as that both shores up the sceptical flank from BP, and avoids fishing in the same pool as Labour and the Lib Dems, whilst having most of the sceptical pool to themselves. [The other view would be that Faragist vehicles are rubbish at FPTP, so the Conservatives would have almost all the sceptical vote anyway, and adding more pro-EU votes to that would've been fantastic].
Very hard to call this election. I wonder how the broadcasters will try and dictate debating terms.
In spite of their new communications skills, the LDs have simply failed so far to get a highly nuanced policy across (not least because the Brexiteer-owned print media keep misrepresenting the policy). That ought to be where the LDs' superior door-knocking resources will be a real asset in target seats.
If, of course, the voters open their doors in a midwinter campaign.
Don't lecture me on your party.
You're split. Deeply. Viscerally.
As for referendum and revoke, I agree that the cut through has been hard - Labour putting out the message that LibDems oppose a peoples vote may have contributed (and now the counter infograohic pointing to the 17 motions put up by the LDs supporting PV).
The other dynamic. This election looks inside the bubble to have been dragged out of the MPs - yesterday they voted for a date that they hadn't supported the day before. The Tories desperately wanted an election ("not another one!"), Labour desperately wanted an election but desperately didn't want to vote for one.
I certainly intend to have some fun locally pointing out to wavering and former Labour supporters that the party and the MP did everything they could to avoid the election. In these frenzied times of "will of the people" nonsense avoidance of democracy is an issue...
https://twitter.com/eastbourneecho/status/1189319794580971522?s=21
Ironically, he was slung out precisely because the Tories weren't united and it showed. With him, Hammond and a few others gone, basically everyone standing as a Tory will be on message. Meanwhile, a decent chunk of Labour MPs will be pretending their manifesto commitment to Ref2 isn't serious, and most of the rest will be talking about how they'll be enthusiastically backing remain. Neither of which is official policy.
I can see that for life-long but now disillusioned Labour voters, it gives them a continuing involvement in politics. But it is an anti-Labour vote, rather than being for anything. Nasty weather - they probably stay home and watch the telly. Does Labour no good, does the Tories no harm.
For former Tories who want Brexit - voting for the Brexit Party also gives them a continuing involvement in politics. But how many of them want a really, really pure form of Brexit - one that risks no Brexit at all? With added side-salad of Corbyn. And with added far-right bedfollows, for whom BNP to BXP is just a letter change.
I suspect there are still about 8% of the electorate who have to make a choice: BXP or Tory? Sure, Farage is a firebrand preacher. But Boris is more like a country Church of England vicar, who will see them safely off to Brexit heaven. He's even quite relaxed about whether you pay attention to most of the 10 Commandments.
Late surge? BXP to Conservative is where I'll be putting my money.
Compare and contrast to Labour trying to deselect sitting MPs and MPs openly contradicting their leader in the house. You can criticise Boris for many things but he has unified the Tory party behind him for the first time in years.
If it is all about Brexit (and I’m not convinced it will be) then the voters could polarise around the LDs and Tories.
As for my negging, strip away my pejorative language and look dispassionately at what is in front of you. The Labour Party civil war is real and is nasty. The attempts to deselct MPs have all failed and there is a mob of Labour supporters very visible on Twitter angry about it. The cycle of select an anti-semite continues, the latest being the charmer unveiled to run in Poplar and Limehouse. The reality vs optimism war continues. Corbyn in making his 2nd reading speech yesterday gives way to one of his own MPs who openly and directly contradicts what Corbyn was saying seconds before.
I despise the man - you can all see that. But my personal "negging" doesn't negate the evidence in front of us
Lol. There he is!
Hope the LDs enjoy having a total member as a member.
But like others I think theres shy labour colouring the voting intentions. Masses will return home to labour like putting on an old jacket.
Who really, really wants to win this election? Who really, really wanted the election in the first place?
Answers: Boris. Boris.
Boris will promise what he has to, he will do what he has to, to win. It will be absolutely shameless, but he is very good at shamelessness.