So when this GE is over, and IF there is still no majority in parliament in favour of leaving, can Leavers please accept that the shaky mandate they had in 2016 is no more and please just shut TFU and go away! 😂😂
Nope, if the Lib Dems and SNP dont have a majority its safe to say there is no mandate to remain.
So we have two GEs to give a mandate to deliver Brexit and the public refuse the mandate. Yet you still expect the rest of us to stick to an even earlier mandate from 2016 that the Tories have failed to deliver? How many losers revotes before you give up?
Leaving with any deal has been my first preference up to now because I think it was important to do what we said we will but with the dissolution of this parliament I will now consider the options purely on their merits, no longer with respect to the 2016 vote.
The Tory strategy is very high risk: potentially sacrifice Guildford, Wimbledon and Putney in order to win Workington, Bishop Auckland and Barrow & Furness.
I don't see Guildford as a risk. But the others yes.
Thankfully she only has 541 twitter followers so I can't see too many gullible sorts encountering her nonsense.
You support Brexit and Boris Johnson and you call others "gullible". I admire your chutzpah! 😂😂😂😂
Oh dear, I was wondering where the forum idiot had got to, welcome Nigel!
It is called humour. Recognise that it is lacking in many leavers, particularly at the greater end of the gullibility spectrum, such as your good self. Mind you it must be a lovely world to live in where you can be so trusting in someone such as Boris Johnson, and still believe in fairy tales such as Brexit and Father Christmas. I almost envy you.
Who says I trust him? I just think he's a bit more trustworthy than Corbs and Swinson and a much better PM. A view shared by a lot of the country. I rarely vote Tory either.
The Tory strategy is very high risk: potentially sacrifice Guildford, Wimbledon and Putney in order to win Workington, Bishop Auckland and Barrow & Furness.
I don't see Guildford as a risk. But the others yes.
Guildford is a risk.
The fact the LDs won it in 2001 means it isn't the safe Tory seat that some believe.
It's interesting that the Lib Dem vote in Guildford went down in 2010.
So when this GE is over, and IF there is still no majority in parliament in favour of leaving, can Leavers please accept that the shaky mandate they had in 2016 is no more and please just shut TFU and go away! 😂😂
Nope, if the Lib Dems and SNP dont have a majority its safe to say there is no mandate to remain.
So we have two GEs to give a mandate to deliver Brexit and the public refuse the mandate. Yet you still expect the rest of us to stick to an even earlier mandate from 2016 that the Tories have failed to deliver? How many losers revotes before you give up?
Leaving with any deal has been my first preference up to now because I think it was important to do what we said we will but with the dissolution of this parliament I will now consider the options purely on their merits, no longer with respect to the 2016 vote.
So If the Lib Dems get 40 seats that's a mandate for remain? That's ridiculous mind maths.
Do the Greens recommend their voters go to the Lib Dems or do they just not contest the seat and say nothing .
I think regardless this is a good move by the Lib Dems , it’s likely that the green vote has large variations between constituencies, take for example the Cambridge poll .
In some seats they might be pulling 10% and others very much lower .
The word seems to be that in about seventy seats there will be one Remain Alliance candidate, mostly LibDem but with a mix of Greens and PC, with the other parties not standing. There is also a suggestion that a few strong remain Labour candidates/MPs might be given a free run.
That might make BoJo sweat a bit in Uxbridge with his 5k majority.
The Tory strategy is very high risk: potentially sacrifice Guildford, Wimbledon and Putney in order to win Workington, Bishop Auckland and Barrow & Furness.
I don't see Guildford as a risk. But the others yes.
Guildford is a risk.
I expect the Lib Dems to make very little headway in their old strongholds in the South West, but to do far better down the M3 and M4 corridors.
Yes the LDs will do well in places where there are good jobs at risk.
Yup. And the intention seems to be that he should replace someone who is a known liar, a charlatan, isn't very nice at all and is working for some unpleasant and unscrupulous people.
The Tory strategy is very high risk: potentially sacrifice Guildford, Wimbledon and Putney in order to win Workington, Bishop Auckland and Barrow & Furness.
Whilst being led by old Etonians.....it might well work but only because of Corbyn.
I dont think it will work. It all comes down to party machines. The Tories have had years of decline. Labour membership in contrast is half a million. Added to which some of the places the Tories want to win with high Leave votes are not the sort of places Tories from safe Tory seats will feel comfortable visiting especially in the dark. I know Tories on here dont want to hear the sentiments i advocate but i think this election in december could backfire
Agreed, but then both of us probably are wearing shit coloured specs when looking at our old party, so who knows?
I've just tried out the tactical voting website. I was recommended to vote LD even though the result last time was as follows: Con 64%, Lab 29%, LD 5%, Green 3%.
I got vote Lib Dem in Bognor Regis and Littlehampton which had a result of Con 59 Lab 25 Lib Dem 6.5
I haven't visited Bognor for many years - why would you? But Littlehampton has a fair bit of conspicuous Labour Party activity. I only know one person who lives there though and they aren't political at all so not much help in assessing what it is like on the ground. But seaside seats don't tend to have strong loyalties and are amenable to campaigning. There might be some surprises along the south coast.
The vote in 2017 is now quite irrelevant. Everything has changed. Only Labour spinners now go back tot he 2017 result. And the tactical voting sites that Labour have set up.
The Tory strategy is very high risk: potentially sacrifice Guildford, Wimbledon and Putney in order to win Workington, Bishop Auckland and Barrow & Furness.
I don't see Guildford as a risk. But the others yes.
Guildford is a risk.
It certainly feels like a risk in the centre.
54% Tory in 2017. Not sure too enough folk will want to risk Corbyn PM by voting Lib Dem. It is the sort of place where Corbyn is really disliked.
The Tory strategy is very high risk: potentially sacrifice Guildford, Wimbledon and Putney in order to win Workington, Bishop Auckland and Barrow & Furness.
Whilst being led by old Etonians.....it might well work but only because of Corbyn.
I dont think it will work. It all comes down to party machines. The Tories have had years of decline. Labour membership in contrast is half a million. Added to which some of the places the Tories want to win with high Leave votes are not the sort of places Tories from safe Tory seats will feel comfortable visiting especially in the dark. I know Tories on here dont want to hear the sentiments i advocate but i think this election in december could backfire
The nice Tories you imagine from safe Tory seats who may not want to venture out in the dark are voting LD! The Tories are an English Nationalist Bluekip party now.
Do the Greens recommend their voters go to the Lib Dems or do they just not contest the seat and say nothing .
I think regardless this is a good move by the Lib Dems , it’s likely that the green vote has large variations between constituencies, take for example the Cambridge poll .
In some seats they might be pulling 10% and others very much lower .
The word seems to be that in about seventy seats there will be one Remain Alliance candidate, mostly LibDem but with a mix of Greens and PC, with the other parties not standing. There is also a suggestion that a few strong remain Labour candidates/MPs might be given a free run.
That might make BoJo sweat a bit in Uxbridge with his 5k majority.
So when this GE is over, and IF there is still no majority in parliament in favour of leaving, can Leavers please accept that the shaky mandate they had in 2016 is no more and please just shut TFU and go away! 😂😂
Nope, if the Lib Dems and SNP dont have a majority its safe to say there is no mandate to remain.
So we have two GEs to give a mandate to deliver Brexit and the public refuse the mandate. Yet you still expect the rest of us to stick to an even earlier mandate from 2016 that the Tories have failed to deliver? How many losers revotes before you give up?
Leaving with any deal has been my first preference up to now because I think it was important to do what we said we will but with the dissolution of this parliament I will now consider the options purely on their merits, no longer with respect to the 2016 vote.
So If the Lib Dems get 40 seats that's a mandate for remain? That's ridiculous mind maths.
Well then dont call a General Election as a mandate for Brexit? Let us have a referendum.
A GE on Brexit cant be a GE on Brexit if we get Brexit either way!!
Do the Greens recommend their voters go to the Lib Dems or do they just not contest the seat and say nothing .
I think regardless this is a good move by the Lib Dems , it’s likely that the green vote has large variations between constituencies, take for example the Cambridge poll .
In some seats they might be pulling 10% and others very much lower .
The word seems to be that in about seventy seats there will be one Remain Alliance candidate, mostly LibDem but with a mix of Greens and PC, with the other parties not standing. There is also a suggestion that a few strong remain Labour candidates/MPs might be given a free run.
That might make BoJo sweat a bit in Uxbridge with his 5k majority.
Uxbridge looks like becoming a hot betting heat.
Let’s wait until Bozo’s agent hands in his nomination paper.
Thankfully she only has 541 twitter followers so I can't see too many gullible sorts encountering her nonsense.
You support Brexit and Boris Johnson and you call others "gullible". I admire your chutzpah! 😂😂😂😂
Oh dear, I was wondering where the forum idiot had got to, welcome Nigel!
It is called humour. Recognise that it is lacking in many leavers, particularly at the greater end of the gullibility spectrum, such as your good self. Mind you it must be a lovely world to live in where you can be so trusting in someone such as Boris Johnson, and still believe in fairy tales such as Brexit and Father Christmas. I almost envy you.
Who says I trust him? I just think he's a bit more trustworthy than Corbs and Swinson and a much better PM. A view shared by a lot of the country. I rarely vote Tory either.
Your posts are not as sycophantic as the ludicrous ones from HYUFD, but they don't exactly suggest a healthy scepticism about the man, or the whole Brexit debacle. The latter of which you would have to be deaf dumb and blind not to realise has been a complete disaster with no serious upside for the country. So when you go about calling people idiots (rather than criticising what they write), just remember that what you regularly post, with its notably poor syntax possibly indicates that that particular moniker looks more appropriate for yourself matey!
Regardless of tactical voting, unusual swings etc. *if* the Conservatives finish up 10% ahead, then they'll get their majority, even if it's in unusual places.
These are the seats I would be concentrating on winning if I were planning the Labour campaign:
Hastings & Rye Chipping Barnet Harrow East Watford Chingford Reading West Southport Stevenage Cities of London & Westminster Worthing East Uxbridge Wimbledon Wycombe
So when this GE is over, and IF there is still no majority in parliament in favour of leaving, can Leavers please accept that the shaky mandate they had in 2016 is no more and please just shut TFU and go away! 😂😂
Nope, if the Lib Dems and SNP dont have a majority its safe to say there is no mandate to remain.
So we have two GEs to give a mandate to deliver Brexit and the public refuse the mandate. Yet you still expect the rest of us to stick to an even earlier mandate from 2016 that the Tories have failed to deliver? How many losers revotes before you give up?
Leaving with any deal has been my first preference up to now because I think it was important to do what we said we will but with the dissolution of this parliament I will now consider the options purely on their merits, no longer with respect to the 2016 vote.
So If the Lib Dems get 40 seats that's a mandate for remain? That's ridiculous mind maths.
Well then dont call a General Election as a mandate for Brexit? Let us have a referendum.
A GE on Brexit cant be a GE on Brexit if we get Brexit either way!!
You had a referendum Mr Troll. If the Lib Dems and SNP win enough seats you'll get revoke or another ref, what are you worried about?
These are the seats I would be concentrating on winning if I were planning the Labour campaign:
Hastings & Rye Chipping Barnet Harrow East Watford Chingford Reading West Southport Stevenage Cities of London & Westminster Worthing East Uxbridge Wimbledon Wycombe
Regardless of tactical voting, unusual swings etc. *if* the Conservatives finish up 10% ahead, then they'll get their majority, even if it's in unusual places.
Broadly agree. I think 8% upwards should be enough. I also think if Boris is under 10 seats short of a majority then his deal will pass. So effectively he needs to replicate or better what May achieved.
The Tory strategy is very high risk: potentially sacrifice Guildford, Wimbledon and Putney in order to win Workington, Bishop Auckland and Barrow & Furness.
I don't see Guildford as a risk. But the others yes.
Guildford is a risk.
I expect the Lib Dems to make very little headway in their old strongholds in the South West, but to do far better down the M3 and M4 corridors.
The southwest is an interesting case. A lot will depend on the Brexit party. There are a lot of very strident brexiters but there are also a lot of people who voted for Brexit because they were disillusioned with austerity and the state of the UK. They may not agree with the Lib Dems on Brexit but actually many of them accept that the Southwest did pretty well put of the coalition and plenty of that investment is now going to Northern Ireland. So if Farage puts up a number of candidates in the region and mops up some ultra leavers then I think the Tories could struggle. It is also worth pointing out that many of those MPs won their seats in 2010 and have now had 9 years. That will be important. Some have a good reputation locally but others are pretty unpopular, even in their own party. I suspect that their ability to motivate their own teams for a December poll is going to be a factor.
Just a comment on Workington Man (the modern version of Worcester Woman). It is based on the Rugby League strategy being advocated by a Conservative think tank. Constituencies with Rugby League teams are the target. In reality it think it is Championship level rather than Super League. So Barrow, Workington, Dewsbury, Batley, Featherstone rather than St Helens, Wigan, Leeds, Salford. Will be interesting to see if this pans out.
Regardless of tactical voting, unusual swings etc. *if* the Conservatives finish up 10% ahead, then they'll get their majority, even if it's in unusual places.
Yup. If we can't work out which seats they'd win to get a majority given a lead like that, that's our problem not theirs.
So when this GE is over, and IF there is still no majority in parliament in favour of leaving, can Leavers please accept that the shaky mandate they had in 2016 is no more and please just shut TFU and go away! 😂😂
Nope, if the Lib Dems and SNP dont have a majority its safe to say there is no mandate to remain.
So we have two GEs to give a mandate to deliver Brexit and the public refuse the mandate. Yet you still expect the rest of us to stick to an even earlier mandate from 2016 that the Tories have failed to deliver? How many losers revotes before you give up?
Leaving with any deal has been my first preference up to now because I think it was important to do what we said we will but with the dissolution of this parliament I will now consider the options purely on their merits, no longer with respect to the 2016 vote.
So If the Lib Dems get 40 seats that's a mandate for remain? That's ridiculous mind maths.
Well then dont call a General Election as a mandate for Brexit? Let us have a referendum.
A GE on Brexit cant be a GE on Brexit if we get Brexit either way!!
You had a referendum Mr Troll. If the Lib Dems and SNP win enough seats you'll get revoke or another ref, what are you worried about?
Im not worried, Ill be fine either way and would have taken the Johnson or May deal. So if the Tories win so be it; but if they lose I do not think anyone should consider themselves bound by the 2016 vote anymore.
It is ridiculous to call a GE as a request for a mandate for Brexit but then demand we Brexit anyway if you dont get the mandate.
The Tory strategy is very high risk: potentially sacrifice Guildford, Wimbledon and Putney in order to win Workington, Bishop Auckland and Barrow & Furness.
Whilst being led by old Etonians.....it might well work but only because of Corbyn.
I dont think it will work. It all comes down to party machines. The Tories have had years of decline. Labour membership in contrast is half a million. Added to which some of the places the Tories want to win with high Leave votes are not the sort of places Tories from safe Tory seats will feel comfortable visiting especially in the dark. I know Tories on here dont want to hear the sentiments i advocate but i think this election in december could backfire
Agreed, but then both of us probably are wearing shit coloured specs when looking at our old party, so who knows?
lol - I am that repelled by the Tories I am seriously thinking about tactically voting Labour as the MP seeking re-election is pro-EU. I have come to this conclusion over the summer and that tactical voter website validates this. I will encourage family members who live in the same seat to vote LD as former Tories they will never vote Labour tactically but it will be several votes the Tories dont get!
1) The polls have Labour on barely half what they were on in 2017
The polls have Labour about the same now as they were when the election was called in 2017, and the Tories are about half as far in front now as they were then.
I already posted a link to this graph showing the polling movements in the six months before the two elections were called, and during the campaign period last time round.
These are the seats I would be concentrating on winning if I were planning the Labour campaign:
Hastings & Rye Chipping Barnet Harrow East Watford Chingford Reading West Southport Stevenage Cities of London & Westminster Worthing East Uxbridge Wimbledon Wycombe
So when this GE is over, and IF there is still no majority in parliament in favour of leaving, can Leavers please accept that the shaky mandate they had in 2016 is no more and please just shut TFU and go away! 😂😂
Nope, if the Lib Dems and SNP dont have a majority its safe to say there is no mandate to remain.
So we have two GEs to give a mandate to deliver Brexit and the public refuse the mandate. Yet you still expect the rest of us to stick to an even earlier mandate from 2016 that the Tories have failed to deliver? How many losers revotes before you give up?
Leaving with any deal has been my first preference up to now because I think it was important to do what we said we will but with the dissolution of this parliament I will now consider the options purely on their merits, no longer with respect to the 2016 vote.
So If the Lib Dems get 40 seats that's a mandate for remain? That's ridiculous mind maths.
Well then dont call a General Election as a mandate for Brexit? Let us have a referendum.
A GE on Brexit cant be a GE on Brexit if we get Brexit either way!!
If leavers were so sure of their position, say a 70% endorsement, they would have another referendum tomorrow. The reason they are frit of a referendum is that they realise that a lot of the public that were conned into it last time will realise what it always has been; a policy that is a pile of infantile poo. That is why they will hide behind a GE instead, only because the LoTO is so useless.
"It's hard to equate the polls with anything but a clear Tory majority, but where do they win the seats? ... "It all suggests to me a small advance by Boris and maybe a small overall majority, but far too unpredictable to wager large sums on."
I`m holding off betting too. We don`t yet know the extent of BXP involvement. If Farage puts up a candidate in every constituency the Tories are in big trouble IMO.
As I`ve pointed out before, it would be a supreme irony if Farage puts Corbyn in Downing Street and Brexit gets cancelled via a second referendum.
I answered a detailed YouGov political poll yesterday and 0.1% to the LibDem share.
So when this GE is over, and IF there is still no majority in parliament in favour of leaving, can Leavers please accept that the shaky mandate they had in 2016 is no more and please just shut TFU and go away! 😂😂
Nope, if the Lib Dems and SNP dont have a majority its safe to say there is no mandate to remain.
So we have two GEs to give a mandate to deliver Brexit and the public refuse the mandate. Yet you still expect the rest of us to stick to an even earlier mandate from 2016 that the Tories have failed to deliver? How many losers revotes before you give up?
Leaving with any deal has been my first preference up to now because I think it was important to do what we said we will but with the dissolution of this parliament I will now consider the options purely on their merits, no longer with respect to the 2016 vote.
So If the Lib Dems get 40 seats that's a mandate for remain? That's ridiculous mind maths.
Well then dont call a General Election as a mandate for Brexit? Let us have a referendum.
A GE on Brexit cant be a GE on Brexit if we get Brexit either way!!
You had a referendum Mr Troll. If the Lib Dems and SNP win enough seats you'll get revoke or another ref, what are you worried about?
You are calling another poster a "Troll"? Previously you called other people "gullible". Irony alert here folks!
I've just tried out the tactical voting website. I was recommended to vote LD even though the result last time was as follows: Con 64%, Lab 29%, LD 5%, Green 3%.
Reminds me of the famous Yorkshire golf course who split the playing time equally between men and women. The men had it from 7 in the morning till 7 at night and the women had it from 7 at night till 7 in the morning
Regardless of tactical voting, unusual swings etc. *if* the Conservatives finish up 10% ahead, then they'll get their majority, even if it's in unusual places.
Yup. If we can't work out which seats they'd win to get a majority given a lead like that, that's our problem not theirs.
The lesson from last time is that big money can be won from spotting the unexpected seats that may change hands
These are the seats I would be concentrating on winning if I were planning the Labour campaign:
Hastings & Rye Chipping Barnet Harrow East Watford Chingford Reading West Southport Stevenage Cities of London & Westminster Worthing East Uxbridge Wimbledon Wycombe
If they win Wycombe and Uxbridge its a Labour landslide with JC PM
It would be hard to think of a more atypical constituency than Uxbridge. I wouldn't make any predictions, or draw any inferences from it.
Well it has incredibly similar demographics to around where I live. As has been stated if Uxbridge goes then it won't bother Boris because Tories will be sub 270 seats.
So when this GE is over, and IF there is still no majority in parliament in favour of leaving, can Leavers please accept that the shaky mandate they had in 2016 is no more and please just shut TFU and go away! 😂😂
Nope, if the Lib Dems and SNP dont have a majority its safe to say there is no mandate to remain.
So we have two GEs to give a mandate to deliver Brexit and the public refuse the mandate. Yet you still expect the rest of us to stick to an even earlier mandate from 2016 that the Tories have failed to deliver? How many losers revotes before you give up?
Leaving with any deal has been my first preference up to now because I think it was important to do what we said we will but with the dissolution of this parliament I will now consider the options purely on their merits, no longer with respect to the 2016 vote.
So If the Lib Dems get 40 seats that's a mandate for remain? That's ridiculous mind maths.
Well then dont call a General Election as a mandate for Brexit? Let us have a referendum.
A GE on Brexit cant be a GE on Brexit if we get Brexit either way!!
You had a referendum Mr Troll. If the Lib Dems and SNP win enough seats you'll get revoke or another ref, what are you worried about?
Im not worried, Ill be fine either way and would have taken the Johnson or May deal. So if the Tories win so be it; but if they lose I do not think anyone should consider themselves bound by the 2016 vote anymore.
It is ridiculous to call a GE as a request for a mandate for Brexit but then demand we Brexit anyway if you dont get the mandate.
Absolutely. I think leavers were a bit too dim to work this one out. If two GEs fail to show a clear mandate for Brexit, it has lost the thin veneer of legitimacy it once had.
So when this GE is over, and IF there is still no majority in parliament in favour of leaving, can Leavers please accept that the shaky mandate they had in 2016 is no more and please just shut TFU and go away! 😂😂
Nope, if the Lib Dems and SNP dont have a majority its safe to say there is no mandate to remain.
So we have two GEs to give a mandate to deliver Brexit and the public refuse the mandate. Yet you still expect the rest of us to stick to an even earlier mandate from 2016 that the Tories have failed to deliver? How many losers revotes before you give up?
Leaving with any deal has been my first preference up to now because I think it was important to do what we said we will but with the dissolution of this parliament I will now consider the options purely on their merits, no longer with respect to the 2016 vote.
So If the Lib Dems get 40 seats that's a mandate for remain? That's ridiculous mind maths.
Well then dont call a General Election as a mandate for Brexit? Let us have a referendum.
A GE on Brexit cant be a GE on Brexit if we get Brexit either way!!
If leavers were so sure of their position, say a 70% endorsement, they would have another referendum tomorrow. The reason they are frit of a referendum is that they realise that a lot of the public that were conned into it last time will realise what it always has been; a policy that is a pile of infantile poo. That is why they will hide behind a GE instead, only because the LoTO is so useless.
I think leavers preferred a GE and remainers a 2nd ref mostly because it was in their interests rather than for reasons of pure democratic fairness. Perhaps the arguments are now so hashed into peoples brains that they believe only their view is democratically fair but it is not a coincidence that both groups prefer the route that is more likely to achieve their objective!
So when this GE is over, and IF there is still no majority in parliament in favour of leaving, can Leavers please accept that the shaky mandate they had in 2016 is no more and please just shut TFU and go away! 😂😂
Nope, if the Lib Dems and SNP dont have a majority its safe to say there is no mandate to remain.
So we have two GEs to give a mandate to deliver Brexit and the public refuse the mandate. Yet you still expect the rest of us to stick to an even earlier mandate from 2016 that the Tories have failed to deliver? How many losers revotes before you give up?
Leaving with any deal has been my first preference up to now because I think it was important to do what we said we will but with the dissolution of this parliament I will now consider the options purely on their merits, no longer with respect to the 2016 vote.
So If the Lib Dems get 40 seats that's a mandate for remain? That's ridiculous mind maths.
Well then dont call a General Election as a mandate for Brexit? Let us have a referendum.
A GE on Brexit cant be a GE on Brexit if we get Brexit either way!!
You had a referendum Mr Troll. If the Lib Dems and SNP win enough seats you'll get revoke or another ref, what are you worried about?
Im not worried, Ill be fine either way and would have taken the Johnson or May deal. So if the Tories win so be it; but if they lose I do not think anyone should consider themselves bound by the 2016 vote anymore.
It is ridiculous to call a GE as a request for a mandate for Brexit but then demand we Brexit anyway if you dont get the mandate.
Surely it's more ridiculous to remain when the election results and referendum show zero mandate for that... At least leave has one definitive mandate.
The Tory strategy is very high risk: potentially sacrifice Guildford, Wimbledon and Putney in order to win Workington, Bishop Auckland and Barrow & Furness.
Whilst being led by old Etonians.....it might well work but only because of Corbyn.
I dont think it will work. It all comes down to party machines. The Tories have had years of decline. Labour membership in contrast is half a million. Added to which some of the places the Tories want to win with high Leave votes are not the sort of places Tories from safe Tory seats will feel comfortable visiting especially in the dark. I know Tories on here dont want to hear the sentiments i advocate but i think this election in december could backfire
Agreed, but then both of us probably are wearing shit coloured specs when looking at our old party, so who knows?
lol - I am that repelled by the Tories I am seriously thinking about tactically voting Labour as the MP seeking re-election is pro-EU. I have come to this conclusion over the summer and that tactical voter website validates this. I will encourage family members who live in the same seat to vote LD as former Tories they will never vote Labour tactically but it will be several votes the Tories dont get!
That getvoting.com tactical voting website is going to get some finessing in the next couple of weeks I would think. A lot of places where candidates have still to be confirmed and no recommendation is showing and others where it is going out on something of a limb already.
e.g. I might have held back a little on recommending Labour in Bolsover....
So when this GE is over, and IF there is still no majority in parliament in favour of leaving, can Leavers please accept that the shaky mandate they had in 2016 is no more and please just shut TFU and go away! 😂😂
Nope, if the Lib Dems and SNP dont have a majority its safe to say there is no mandate to remain.
So we have two GEs to give a mandate to deliver Brexit and the public refuse the mandate. Yet you still expect the rest of us to stick to an even earlier mandate from 2016 that the Tories have failed to deliver? How many losers revotes before you give up?
Leaving with any deal has been my first preference up to now because I think it was important to do what we said we will but with the dissolution of this parliament I will now consider the options purely on their merits, no longer with respect to the 2016 vote.
So If the Lib Dems get 40 seats that's a mandate for remain? That's ridiculous mind maths.
Well then dont call a General Election as a mandate for Brexit? Let us have a referendum.
A GE on Brexit cant be a GE on Brexit if we get Brexit either way!!
You had a referendum Mr Troll. If the Lib Dems and SNP win enough seats you'll get revoke or another ref, what are you worried about?
Im not worried, Ill be fine either way and would have taken the Johnson or May deal. So if the Tories win so be it; but if they lose I do not think anyone should consider themselves bound by the 2016 vote anymore.
It is ridiculous to call a GE as a request for a mandate for Brexit but then demand we Brexit anyway if you dont get the mandate.
Surely it's more ridiculous to remain when the election results and referendum show zero mandate for that... At least leave has one definitive mandate.
Nah Leave has no mandate anymore. That ship has sailed.
The Tory strategy is very high risk: potentially sacrifice Guildford, Wimbledon and Putney in order to win Workington, Bishop Auckland and Barrow & Furness.
Whilst being led by old Etonians.....it might well work but only because of Corbyn.
I dont think it will work. It all comes down to party machines. The Tories have had years of decline. Labour membership in contrast is half a million. Added to which some of the places the Tories want to win with high Leave votes are not the sort of places Tories from safe Tory seats will feel comfortable visiting especially in the dark. I know Tories on here dont want to hear the sentiments i advocate but i think this election in december could backfire
Agreed, but then both of us probably are wearing shit coloured specs when looking at our old party, so who knows?
lol - I am that repelled by the Tories I am seriously thinking about tactically voting Labour as the MP seeking re-election is pro-EU. I have come to this conclusion over the summer and that tactical voter website validates this. I will encourage family members who live in the same seat to vote LD as former Tories they will never vote Labour tactically but it will be several votes the Tories dont get!
The Tory strategy is very high risk: potentially sacrifice Guildford, Wimbledon and Putney in order to win Workington, Bishop Auckland and Barrow & Furness.
I don't see Guildford as a risk. But the others yes.
Guildford is a risk.
The fact the LDs won it in 2001 means it isn't the safe Tory seat that some believe.
It's interesting that the Lib Dem vote in Guildford went down in 2010.
The Tory strategy is very high risk: potentially sacrifice Guildford, Wimbledon and Putney in order to win Workington, Bishop Auckland and Barrow & Furness.
I don't see Guildford as a risk. But the others yes.
Guildford is a risk.
The fact the LDs won it in 2001 means it isn't the safe Tory seat that some believe.
It's interesting that the Lib Dem vote in Guildford went down in 2010.
The Tory strategy is very high risk: potentially sacrifice Guildford, Wimbledon and Putney in order to win Workington, Bishop Auckland and Barrow & Furness.
Whilst being led by old Etonians.....it might well work but only because of Corbyn.
I dont think it will work. It all comes down to party machines. The Tories have had years of decline. Labour membership in contrast is half a million. Added to which some of the places the Tories want to win with high Leave votes are not the sort of places Tories from safe Tory seats will feel comfortable visiting especially in the dark. I know Tories on here dont want to hear the sentiments i advocate but i think this election in december could backfire
Agreed, but then both of us probably are wearing shit coloured specs when looking at our old party, so who knows?
lol - I am that repelled by the Tories I am seriously thinking about tactically voting Labour as the MP seeking re-election is pro-EU. I have come to this conclusion over the summer and that tactical voter website validates this. I will encourage family members who live in the same seat to vote LD as former Tories they will never vote Labour tactically but it will be several votes the Tories dont get!
Could be quite a bit of this.
Tories out number one priority for lots of voters
I thought you said a vote for Tory Swinson is just a vote for the Tories anyway?
The aspect to note from the LD positioning is they will happily work with EITHER a Conservative minority or Labour minority administration but not a Conservative administration headed by Johnson or a Labour administration headed by Corbyn.
As far as the Conservatives is concerned, what is Johnson's life expectancy as leader if he actually does no better than May? Hours or will he try to cling to leadership amidst the storm which would engulf him if he had so clearly failed to deliver on the election he wanted so badly? I do think the biggest mistake the Conservatives made was not to oust May in the immediate aftermath of June 2017.
As for Corbyn he would also have failed though he might not see it in those terms. The truth is it's not just him - in fact, it really isn't him at all but McDonnell and the lunatic economic policies he espouses.
I suspect Swinson and others would make the price of any support (even C&S) a second referendum - Labour have at times supported that, I presume even a post-Johnson Conservative Party wouldn't. Beyond that, Labour can put up what it likes - we can only hope the defeated Tories won't abstain as they did on Wilson's QS in March 1974 but to be fair what Healey was proposing then and what McDonnell would be proposing now are two very different things.
So when this GE is over, and IF there is still no majority in parliament in favour of leaving, can Leavers please accept that the shaky mandate they had in 2016 is no more and please just shut TFU and go away! 😂😂
Nope, if the Lib Dems and SNP dont have a majority its safe to say there is no mandate to remain.
So we have two GEs to give a mandate to deliver Brexit and the public refuse the mandate. Yet you still expect the rest of us to stick to an even earlier mandate from 2016 that the Tories have failed to deliver? How many losers revotes before you give up?
Leaving with any deal has been my first preference up to now because I think it was important to do what we said we will but with the dissolution of this parliament I will now consider the options purely on their merits, no longer with respect to the 2016 vote.
So If the Lib Dems get 40 seats that's a mandate for remain? That's ridiculous mind maths.
Well then dont call a General Election as a mandate for Brexit? Let us have a referendum.
A GE on Brexit cant be a GE on Brexit if we get Brexit either way!!
If leavers were so sure of their position, say a 70% endorsement, they would have another referendum tomorrow. The reason they are frit of a referendum is that they realise that a lot of the public that were conned into it last time will realise what it always has been; a policy that is a pile of infantile poo. That is why they will hide behind a GE instead, only because the LoTO is so useless.
I think leavers preferred a GE and remainers a 2nd ref mostly because it was in their interests rather than for reasons of pure democratic fairness. Perhaps the arguments are now so hashed into peoples brains that they believe only their view is democratically fair but it is not a coincidence that both groups prefer the route that is more likely to achieve their objective!
Yep, everything becomes more polarised. I would have accepted the WA. Leavers have shown absolutely zero respect for the fact that 48% of people did not support this massive (and I would argue unnecessary) change, and have tried to make the result more extreme at every twist and turn. If there are two GEs that show no clear mandate for Brexit another referendum is not only inevitable but also completely democratically justifiable.
That getvoting.com tactical voting website is going to get some finessing in the next couple of weeks I would think. A lot of places where candidates have still to be confirmed and no recommendation is showing and others where it is going out on something of a limb already.
e.g. I might have held back a little on recommending Labour in Bolsover....
Can't see a getvoting.com website. What's the exact link?
So when this GE is over, and IF there is still no majority in parliament in favour of leaving, can Leavers please accept that the shaky mandate they had in 2016 is no more and please just shut TFU and go away! 😂😂
Nope, if the Lib Dems and SNP dont have a majority its safe to say there is no mandate to remain.
So we have two GEs to give a mandate to deliver Brexit and the public refuse the mandate. Yet you still expect the rest of us to stick to an even earlier mandate from 2016 that the Tories have failed to deliver? How many losers revotes before you give up?
Leaving with any deal has been my first preference up to now because I think it was important to do what we said we will but with the dissolution of this parliament I will now consider the options purely on their merits, no longer with respect to the 2016 vote.
So If the Lib Dems get 40 seats that's a mandate for remain? That's ridiculous mind maths.
Well then dont call a General Election as a mandate for Brexit? Let us have a referendum.
A GE on Brexit cant be a GE on Brexit if we get Brexit either way!!
You had a referendum Mr Troll. If the Lib Dems and SNP win enough seats you'll get revoke or another ref, what are you worried about?
Im not worried, Ill be fine either way and would have taken the Johnson or May deal. So if the Tories win so be it; but if they lose I do not think anyone should consider themselves bound by the 2016 vote anymore.
It is ridiculous to call a GE as a request for a mandate for Brexit but then demand we Brexit anyway if you dont get the mandate.
Surely it's more ridiculous to remain when the election results and referendum show zero mandate for that... At least leave has one definitive mandate.
Well if it was definitive the govt should have delivered it with its majority. It didnt because it wasnt definitive as different parts of the tory party wanted different Brexits. The world will not wait forever for anything.
The Tory strategy is very high risk: potentially sacrifice Guildford, Wimbledon and Putney in order to win Workington, Bishop Auckland and Barrow & Furness.
Whilst being led by old Etonians.....it might well work but only because of Corbyn.
I dont think it will work. It all comes down to party machines. The Tories have had years of decline. Labour membership in contrast is half a million. Added to which some of the places the Tories want to win with high Leave votes are not the sort of places Tories from safe Tory seats will feel comfortable visiting especially in the dark. I know Tories on here dont want to hear the sentiments i advocate but i think this election in december could backfire
The nice Tories you imagine from safe Tory seats who may not want to venture out in the dark are voting LD! The Tories are an English Nationalist Bluekip party now.
The new voters maybe "English Nationalist Bluekip" but what. about the members who are normally the footsoldiers? Just saying party machines are very important, the Tories will have a numbers disadvantage compared to Labour and then we also have the second disadvantage in the time of year. A GE is not like a by-election. Every seat is being fought and so for the Tories this will create a series of problems that the generals in Westminster, who sit behind desks seem to be completely unaware of hitting them.
So when this GE is over, and IF there is still no majority in parliament in favour of leaving, can Leavers please accept that the shaky mandate they had in 2016 is no more and please just shut TFU and go away! 😂😂
Nope, if the Lib Dems and SNP dont have a majority its safe to say there is no mandate to remain.
So we have two GEs to give a mandate to deliver Brexit and the public refuse the mandate. Yet you still expect the rest of us to stick to an even earlier mandate from 2016 that the Tories have failed to deliver? How many losers revotes before you give up?
Leaving with any deal has been my first preference up to now because I think it was important to do what we said we will but with the dissolution of this parliament I will now consider the options purely on their merits, no longer with respect to the 2016 vote.
So If the Lib Dems get 40 seats that's a mandate for remain? That's ridiculous mind maths.
Well then dont call a General Election as a mandate for Brexit? Let us have a referendum.
A GE on Brexit cant be a GE on Brexit if we get Brexit either way!!
You had a referendum Mr Troll. If the Lib Dems and SNP win enough seats you'll get revoke or another ref, what are you worried about?
Im not worried, Ill be fine either way and would have taken the Johnson or May deal. So if the Tories win so be it; but if they lose I do not think anyone should consider themselves bound by the 2016 vote anymore.
It is ridiculous to call a GE as a request for a mandate for Brexit but then demand we Brexit anyway if you dont get the mandate.
Surely it's more ridiculous to remain when the election results and referendum show zero mandate for that... At least leave has one definitive mandate.
Well if it was definitive the govt should have delivered it with its majority. It didnt because it wasnt definitive as different parts of the tory party wanted different Brexits. The world will not wait forever for anything.
By different Brexit you mean no Brexit. I look forward to when you are relying on Labour for a 2nd ref and discover you might be a few votes short...
That getvoting.com tactical voting website is going to get some finessing in the next couple of weeks I would think. A lot of places where candidates have still to be confirmed and no recommendation is showing and others where it is going out on something of a limb already.
e.g. I might have held back a little on recommending Labour in Bolsover....
Can't see a getvoting.com website. What's the exact link?
.org sorry
Recommends Soubrey, as I'm sure you were about to ask
Im not worried, Ill be fine either way and would have taken the Johnson or May deal. So if the Tories win so be it; but if they lose I do not think anyone should consider themselves bound by the 2016 vote anymore.
It is ridiculous to call a GE as a request for a mandate for Brexit but then demand we Brexit anyway if you dont get the mandate.
This is the MASSIVE risk that Johnson is taking with Brexit. If he wins, OK, c'est ca, it's done. But if he loses, it almost certainly never happens. Of course he is happy to take this risk because the thing at stake - Brexit - means nothing to him.
So when this GE is over, and IF there is still no majority in parliament in favour of leaving, can Leavers please accept that the shaky mandate they had in 2016 is no more and please just shut TFU and go away! 😂😂
Nope, if the Lib Dems and SNP dont have a majority its safe to say there is no mandate to remain.
So we have two GEs to give a mandate to deliver Brexit and the public refuse the mandate. Yet you still expect the rest of us to stick to an even earlier mandate from 2016 that the Tories have failed to deliver? How many losers revotes before you give up?
Leaving with any deal has been my first preference up to now because I think it was important to do what we said we will but with the dissolution of this parliament I will now consider the options purely on their merits, no longer with respect to the 2016 vote.
So If the Lib Dems get 40 seats that's a mandate for remain? That's ridiculous mind maths.
Well then dont call a General Election as a mandate for Brexit? Let us have a referendum.
A GE on Brexit cant be a GE on Brexit if we get Brexit either way!!
You had a referendum Mr Troll. If the Lib Dems and SNP win enough seats you'll get revoke or another ref, what are you worried about?
Im not worried, Ill be fine either way and would have taken the Johnson or May deal. So if the Tories win so be it; but if they lose I do not think anyone should consider themselves bound by the 2016 vote anymore.
It is ridiculous to call a GE as a request for a mandate for Brexit but then demand we Brexit anyway if you dont get the mandate.
Surely it's more ridiculous to remain when the election results and referendum show zero mandate for that... At least leave has one definitive mandate.
Nah Leave has no mandate anymore. That ship has sailed.
Amazing only the FBPE echo chamber thinks like this.
That getvoting.com tactical voting website is going to get some finessing in the next couple of weeks I would think. A lot of places where candidates have still to be confirmed and no recommendation is showing and others where it is going out on something of a limb already.
e.g. I might have held back a little on recommending Labour in Bolsover....
Can't see a getvoting.com website. What's the exact link?
Im not worried, Ill be fine either way and would have taken the Johnson or May deal. So if the Tories win so be it; but if they lose I do not think anyone should consider themselves bound by the 2016 vote anymore.
It is ridiculous to call a GE as a request for a mandate for Brexit but then demand we Brexit anyway if you dont get the mandate.
This is the MASSIVE risk that Johnson is taking with Brexit. If he wins, OK, c'est ca, it's done. But if he loses, it almost certainly never happens. Of course he is happy to take this risk because the thing at stake - Brexit - means nothing to him.
Possibly, but it only takes one future Tory majority parliament for us to leave again.
The Tory strategy is very high risk: potentially sacrifice Guildford, Wimbledon and Putney in order to win Workington, Bishop Auckland and Barrow & Furness.
Whilst being led by old Etonians.....it might well work but only because of Corbyn.
I dont think it will work. It all comes down to party machines. The Tories have had years of decline. Labour membership in contrast is half a million. Added to which some of the places the Tories want to win with high Leave votes are not the sort of places Tories from safe Tory seats will feel comfortable visiting especially in the dark. I know Tories on here dont want to hear the sentiments i advocate but i think this election in december could backfire
The nice Tories you imagine from safe Tory seats who may not want to venture out in the dark are voting LD! The Tories are an English Nationalist Bluekip party now.
The new voters maybe "English Nationalist Bluekip" but what. about the members who are normally the footsoldiers? Just saying party machines are very important, the Tories will have a numbers disadvantage compared to Labour and then we also have the second disadvantage in the time of year. A GE is not like a by-election. Every seat is being fought and so for the Tories this will create a series of problems that the generals in Westminster, who sit behind desks seem to be completely unaware of hitting them.
Agreed. As a one-time activist, my own observation is that many of the local party leaders/executive members were the more centrist types. The very types who have been hounded out by the nutters. I think the CINO party is in for a shock.
Im not worried, Ill be fine either way and would have taken the Johnson or May deal. So if the Tories win so be it; but if they lose I do not think anyone should consider themselves bound by the 2016 vote anymore.
It is ridiculous to call a GE as a request for a mandate for Brexit but then demand we Brexit anyway if you dont get the mandate.
This is the MASSIVE risk that Johnson is taking with Brexit. If he wins, OK, c'est ca, it's done. But if he loses, it almost certainly never happens. Of course he is happy to take this risk because the thing at stake - Brexit - means nothing to him.
Brexit is a pawn on the Johnson chessboard of life, as are the 65 million of us in the UK. Unfortunately I doubt Corbyn is the one to deliver check mate.
So when this GE is over, and IF there is still no majority in parliament in favour of leaving, can Leavers please accept that the shaky mandate they had in 2016 is no more and please just shut TFU and go away! 😂😂
Nope, if the Lib Dems and SNP dont have a majority its safe to say there is no mandate to remain.
So we have two GEs to give a mandate to deliver Brexit and the public refuse the mandate. Yet you still expect the rest of us to stick to an even earlier mandate from 2016 that the Tories have failed to deliver? How many losers revotes before you give up?
Leaving with any deal has been my first preference up to now because I think it was important to do what we said we will but with the dissolution of this parliament I will now consider the options purely on their merits, no longer with respect to the 2016 vote.
So If the Lib Dems get 40 seats that's a mandate for remain? That's ridiculous mind maths.
Well then dont call a General Election as a mandate for Brexit? Let us have a referendum.
A GE on Brexit cant be a GE on Brexit if we get Brexit either way!!
You had a referendum Mr Troll. If the Lib Dems and SNP win enough seats you'll get revoke or another ref, what are you worried about?
Im not worried, Ill be fine either way and would have taken the Johnson or May deal. So if the Tories win so be it; but if they lose I do not think anyone should consider themselves bound by the 2016 vote anymore.
It is ridiculous to call a GE as a request for a mandate for Brexit but then demand we Brexit anyway if you dont get the mandate.
Surely it's more ridiculous to remain when the election results and referendum show zero mandate for that... At least leave has one definitive mandate.
Well if it was definitive the govt should have delivered it with its majority. It didnt because it wasnt definitive as different parts of the tory party wanted different Brexits. The world will not wait forever for anything.
By different Brexit you mean no Brexit. I look forward to when you are relying on Labour for a 2nd ref and discover you might be a few votes short...
If your idea of Brexit is the uber-stupid, self-harm-max "no-deal" variety then argue for a new referendum with that on the ballot. Don't think it would have the required support? No, didn't think so.
So when this GE is over, and IF there is still no majority in parliament in favour of leaving, can Leavers please accept that the shaky mandate they had in 2016 is no more and please just shut TFU and go away! 😂😂
Nope, if the Lib Dems and SNP dont have a majority its safe to say there is no mandate to remain.
So we have two GEs to give a mandate to deliver Brexit and the public refuse the mandate. Yet you still expect the rest of us to stick to an even earlier mandate from 2016 that the Tories have failed to deliver? How many losers revotes before you give up?
Leaving with any deal has been my first preference up to now because I think it was important to do what we said we will but with the dissolution of this parliament I will now consider the options purely on their merits, no longer with respect to the 2016 vote.
So If the Lib Dems get 40 seats that's a mandate for remain? That's ridiculous mind maths.
Well then dont call a General Election as a mandate for Brexit? Let us have a referendum.
A GE on Brexit cant be a GE on Brexit if we get Brexit either way!!
You had a referendum Mr Troll. If the Lib Dems and SNP win enough seats you'll get revoke or another ref, what are you worried about?
Im not worried, Ill be fine either way and would have taken the Johnson or May deal. So if the Tories win so be it; but if they lose I do not think anyone should consider themselves bound by the 2016 vote anymore.
It is ridiculous to call a GE as a request for a mandate for Brexit but then demand we Brexit anyway if you dont get the mandate.
Surely it's more ridiculous to remain when the election results and referendum show zero mandate for that... At least leave has one definitive mandate.
Well if it was definitive the govt should have delivered it with its majority. It didnt because it wasnt definitive as different parts of the tory party wanted different Brexits. The world will not wait forever for anything.
By different Brexit you mean no Brexit. I look forward to when you are relying on Labour for a 2nd ref and discover you might be a few votes short...
I dont particularly want a 2nd referendum! I supported a deal, but if the Tories fail to get a majority I will support revoke.
The Tory strategy is very high risk: potentially sacrifice Guildford, Wimbledon and Putney in order to win Workington, Bishop Auckland and Barrow & Furness.
Whilst being led by old Etonians.....it might well work but only because of Corbyn.
I dont think it will work. It all comes down to party machines. The Tories have had years of decline. Labour membership in contrast is half a million. Added to which some of the places the Tories want to win with high Leave votes are not the sort of places Tories from safe Tory seats will feel comfortable visiting especially in the dark. I know Tories on here dont want to hear the sentiments i advocate but i think this election in december could backfire
Agreed, but then both of us probably are wearing shit coloured specs when looking at our old party, so who knows?
lol - I am that repelled by the Tories I am seriously thinking about tactically voting Labour as the MP seeking re-election is pro-EU. I have come to this conclusion over the summer and that tactical voter website validates this. I will encourage family members who live in the same seat to vote LD as former Tories they will never vote Labour tactically but it will be several votes the Tories dont get!
Could be quite a bit of this.
Tories out number one priority for lots of voters
I thought you said a vote for Tory Swinson is just a vote for the Tories anyway?
I think his idea of tactical voting is: 1. If it's a Labour-held seat vote Labour to keep the Tories out. 2. If Labour are second behind a Tory vote Labour to get the Tories out. 3. If Labour are second behind a Liberal Democrat vote Labour to get the Tory Liberals out. 4. If Labour are in third place then a Tory is unfortunately guaranteed to win and you can freely vote your conscience for Labour. Simple!
These are the seats I would be concentrating on winning if I were planning the Labour campaign:
Hastings & Rye Chipping Barnet Harrow East Watford Chingford Reading West Southport Stevenage Cities of London & Westminster Worthing East Uxbridge Wimbledon Wycombe
If they win Wycombe and Uxbridge its a Labour landslide with JC PM
It would be hard to think of a more atypical constituency than Uxbridge. I wouldn't make any predictions, or draw any inferences from it.
Well it has incredibly similar demographics to around where I live. As has been stated if Uxbridge goes then it won't bother Boris because Tories will be sub 270 seats.
That’s actually an argument for Bozo staying in Uxbridge. Like an insurance policy - he won’t like the hard and thankless work of being LOTO and if the Tories do badly the Uxbridge electors may save him from such a fate.
The Tory strategy is very high risk: potentially sacrifice Guildford, Wimbledon and Putney in order to win Workington, Bishop Auckland and Barrow & Furness.
Whilst being led by old Etonians.....it might well work but only because of Corbyn.
I dont think it will work. It all comes down to party machines. The Tories have had years of decline. Labour membership in contrast is half a million. Added to which some of the places the Tories want to win with high Leave votes are not the sort of places Tories from safe Tory seats will feel comfortable visiting especially in the dark. I know Tories on here dont want to hear the sentiments i advocate but i think this election in december could backfire
Agreed, but then both of us probably are wearing shit coloured specs when looking at our old party, so who knows?
lol - I am that repelled by the Tories I am seriously thinking about tactically voting Labour as the MP seeking re-election is pro-EU. I have come to this conclusion over the summer and that tactical voter website validates this. I will encourage family members who live in the same seat to vote LD as former Tories they will never vote Labour tactically but it will be several votes the Tories dont get!
Could be quite a bit of this.
Tories out number one priority for lots of voters
I thought you said a vote for Tory Swinson is just a vote for the Tories anyway?
Its acceptable in Tory LD marginals. If you live in one of them you have my permission!! to vote Tory Swinson.
It is a fact I am sure we can agree that in Lab Tory contests a vote for Tory Swinson makes a Tory hard Brexit more likely
Im not worried, Ill be fine either way and would have taken the Johnson or May deal. So if the Tories win so be it; but if they lose I do not think anyone should consider themselves bound by the 2016 vote anymore.
It is ridiculous to call a GE as a request for a mandate for Brexit but then demand we Brexit anyway if you dont get the mandate.
This is the MASSIVE risk that Johnson is taking with Brexit. If he wins, OK, c'est ca, it's done. But if he loses, it almost certainly never happens. Of course he is happy to take this risk because the thing at stake - Brexit - means nothing to him.
Possibly, but it only takes one future Tory majority parliament for us to leave again.
Unlikely. If in 2024 the UK is in the EU and the Conservatives do win a working majority having stood on a Brexit manifesto, they will have to start the Article 50 process all over again.
I've just tried out the tactical voting website. I was recommended to vote LD even though the result last time was as follows: Con 64%, Lab 29%, LD 5%, Green 3%.
I got vote Lib Dem in Bognor Regis and Littlehampton which had a result of Con 59 Lab 25 Lib Dem 6.5
I haven't visited Bognor for many years - why would you? But Littlehampton has a fair bit of conspicuous Labour Party activity. I only know one person who lives there though and they aren't political at all so not much help in assessing what it is like on the ground. But seaside seats don't tend to have strong loyalties and are amenable to campaigning. There might be some surprises along the south coast.
The vote in 2017 is now quite irrelevant. Everything has changed. Only Labour spinners now go back tot he 2017 result. And the tactical voting sites that Labour have set up.
Absolutely agree. But what the parties do on the ground makes a difference. Eastbourne and East Worthing are so similar you can forget which one you are in. The reason one is Lib Dem and one Tory seems to be down to the pavement action, and it could just as easily have been the other way around.
So when this GE is over, and IF there is still no majority in parliament in favour of leaving, can Leavers please accept that the shaky mandate they had in 2016 is no more and please just shut TFU and go away! 😂😂
Nope, if the Lib Dems and SNP dont have a majority its safe to say there is no mandate to remain.
So we have two GEs to give a mandate to deliver Brexit and the public refuse the mandate. Yet you still expect the rest of us to stick to an even earlier mandate from 2016 that the Tories have failed to deliver? How many losers revotes before you give up?
Leaving with any deal has been my first preference up to now because I think it was important to do what we said we will but with the dissolution of this parliament I will now consider the options purely on their merits, no longer with respect to the 2016 vote.
The 2017 GE had over 80% of the MPs standing on manifestos pledging support for Brexit. There is simply no way that can be considered a rejection of Brexit when voting either Labour or Tory was considered safe for Leavers.
The only parties supporting rejecting Brexit in 2017 were the minor parties - who between them got 13% of the vote.
The Tory strategy is very high risk: potentially sacrifice Guildford, Wimbledon and Putney in order to win Workington, Bishop Auckland and Barrow & Furness.
Whilst being led by old Etonians.....it might well work but only because of Corbyn.
I dont think it will work. It all comes down to party machines. The Tories have had years of decline. Labour membership in contrast is half a million. Added to which some of the places the Tories want to win with high Leave votes are not the sort of places Tories from safe Tory seats will feel comfortable visiting especially in the dark. I know Tories on here dont want to hear the sentiments i advocate but i think this election in december could backfire
Agreed, but then both of us probably are wearing shit coloured specs when looking at our old party, so who knows?
lol - I am that repelled by the Tories I am seriously thinking about tactically voting Labour as the MP seeking re-election is pro-EU. I have come to this conclusion over the summer and that tactical voter website validates this. I will encourage family members who live in the same seat to vote LD as former Tories they will never vote Labour tactically but it will be several votes the Tories dont get!
Could be quite a bit of this.
Tories out number one priority for lots of voters
I thought you said a vote for Tory Swinson is just a vote for the Tories anyway?
Its acceptable in Tory LD marginals. If you live in one of them you have my permission!! to vote Tory Swinson.
It is a fact I am sure we can agree that in Lab Tory contests a vote for Tory Swinson makes a Tory hard Brexit more likely
any vote for Labour enables anti semites and haters.
These are the seats I would be concentrating on winning if I were planning the Labour campaign:
Hastings & Rye Chipping Barnet Harrow East Watford Chingford Reading West Southport Stevenage Cities of London & Westminster Worthing East Uxbridge Wimbledon Wycombe
If they win Wycombe and Uxbridge its a Labour landslide with JC PM
Personally I think Labour should concentrate on defence, plus a handful of others. Just as the LibDems shouldn't blow resources on [laces like Uxbridge and Bedford (sorry, Mike), Labour shouldn't get carried away with "one more heave" sruff and go for loads of new gains.
The Tory strategy is very high risk: potentially sacrifice Guildford, Wimbledon and Putney in order to win Workington, Bishop Auckland and Barrow & Furness.
Whilst being led by old Etonians.....it might well work but only because of Corbyn.
I dont think it will work. It all comes down to party machines. The Tories have had years of decline. Labour membership in contrast is half a million. Added to which some of the places the Tories want to win with high Leave votes are not the sort of places Tories from safe Tory seats will feel comfortable visiting especially in the dark. I know Tories on here dont want to hear the sentiments i advocate but i think this election in december could backfire
Agreed, but then both of us probably are wearing shit coloured specs when looking at our old party, so who knows?
lol - I am that repelled by the Tories I am seriously thinking about tactically voting Labour as the MP seeking re-election is pro-EU. I have come to this conclusion over the summer and that tactical voter website validates this. I will encourage family members who live in the same seat to vote LD as former Tories they will never vote Labour tactically but it will be several votes the Tories dont get!
That getvoting.com tactical voting website is going to get some finessing in the next couple of weeks I would think. A lot of places where candidates have still to be confirmed and no recommendation is showing and others where it is going out on something of a limb already.
e.g. I might have held back a little on recommending Labour in Bolsover....
Is Dennis standing? He'll be Father of the House if he keeps his seat.
Stephen Lloyd, who has consistently voted for withdrawal agreements at every step, is going to campaign for re-election under a Remain/Stop Brexit banner:
The Tories can now win back Eastbourne then, given Eastbourne voted 57% Leave
This comment is a good illustration of why you are in big trouble.
Your reply a good reason why arrogant diehard Remainers are in trouble
No you misunderstand (I think).
Of course it's possible to attain unity by booting out everyone with whom you disagree. The ever-decreasing circle of true believers becomes its own self-fulfilling prophecy.
To win elections you have to reach out, not in. You think you're on safe ground by appealing to leavers to win this election. So let me spell this out more directly.
The Conservatives need remainers to win an outright majority in this country. The Johnson-Cummings leadership are doing all they can to achieve the opposite.
In fairness they have provides a deal, to encourage remainers Tories that they wont no deal at least
One of the obvious problems for the Tories is what is known as the tribalism of the Labour vote in the north of England. But I can't help wondering whether Dominic Cummings has come up with a cunning plan to try and circumvent that problem. Knowing him, he's probably got a few ideas about it.
When it comes to campaigning Dominic Cummings has no equal.
I'm not convinced at all by this. It's one thing winning a referendum by promises to hose money at the NHS and race-baiting. In a general election, the Conservatives need to win constituency by constituency without a local coalition uniting behind a particular candidate. His campaigning approach is not well-suited to that.
You’re looking at it the wrong way round.
Cummings approach is based on data and data analytics, and he extensively tests (both in person and through analysis) what messages and slogans work. He is also very good at campaign governance and organisation, and recognising what ‘events’ are just noise and which ones have political significance.
That applies as much to constituency campaigns as referendums. It’s just there are more moving parts in the former.
These are the seats I would be concentrating on winning if I were planning the Labour campaign:
Hastings & Rye Chipping Barnet Harrow East Watford Chingford Reading West Southport Stevenage Cities of London & Westminster Worthing East Uxbridge Wimbledon Wycombe
If they win Wycombe and Uxbridge its a Labour landslide with JC PM
It would be hard to think of a more atypical constituency than Uxbridge. I wouldn't make any predictions, or draw any inferences from it.
Well it has incredibly similar demographics to around where I live. As has been stated if Uxbridge goes then it won't bother Boris because Tories will be sub 270 seats.
That’s actually an argument for Bozo staying in Uxbridge. Like an insurance policy - he won’t like the hard and thankless work of being LOTO and if the Tories do badly the Uxbridge electors may save him from such a fate.
I don't think Johnson will have any difficulty holding Uxbridge.
The Tory strategy is very high risk: potentially sacrifice Guildford, Wimbledon and Putney in order to win Workington, Bishop Auckland and Barrow & Furness.
Whilst being led by old Etonians.....it might well work but only because of Corbyn.
I dont think it will work. It all comes down to party machines. The Tories have had years of decline. Labour membership in contrast is half a million. Added to which some of the places the Tories want to win with high Leave votes are not the sort of places Tories from safe Tory seats will feel comfortable visiting especially in the dark. I know Tories on here dont want to hear the sentiments i advocate but i think this election in december could backfire
Agreed, but then both of us probably are wearing shit coloured specs when looking at our old party, so who knows?
lol - I am that repelled by the Tories I am seriously thinking about tactically voting Labour as the MP seeking re-election is pro-EU. I have come to this conclusion over the summer and that tactical voter website validates this. I will encourage family members who live in the same seat to vote LD as former Tories they will never vote Labour tactically but it will be several votes the Tories dont get!
Could be quite a bit of this.
Tories out number one priority for lots of voters
I thought you said a vote for Tory Swinson is just a vote for the Tories anyway?
I think his idea of tactical voting is: 1. If it's a Labour-held seat vote Labour to keep the Tories out. 2. If Labour are second behind a Tory vote Labour to get the Tories out. 3. If Labour are second behind a Liberal Democrat vote Labour to get the Tory Liberals out. 4. If Labour are in third place then a Tory is unfortunately guaranteed to win and you can freely vote your conscience for Labour. Simple!
1. 2. 3. CORRECT
4. Vote for whoever is 2nd even if its Tory Swinson
Boris Johnson is unlikely to lose his seat and Labour would be well-advised not to warp their campaign based around a decapitation strategy. They have better targets nearby.
I thought that was petulant and childish. It showed bad manners and showed a serious lack of judgement. Bercow is retiring and whether you like him or loath him, it is not the done thing for a PM to behave this way...
So when this GE is over, and IF there is still no majority in parliament in favour of leaving, can Leavers please accept that the shaky mandate they had in 2016 is no more and please just shut TFU and go away! 😂😂
Nope, if the Lib Dems and SNP dont have a majority its safe to say there is no mandate to remain.
If the Tories don't win an overall majority I think you can probably kiss Brexit goodbye.
So when this GE is over, and IF there is still no majority in parliament in favour of leaving, can Leavers please accept that the shaky mandate they had in 2016 is no more and please just shut TFU and go away! 😂😂
Nope, if the Lib Dems and SNP dont have a majority its safe to say there is no mandate to remain.
So we have two GEs to give a mandate to deliver Brexit and the public refuse the mandate. Yet you still expect the rest of us to stick to an even earlier mandate from 2016 that the Tories have failed to deliver? How many losers revotes before you give up?
Leaving with any deal has been my first preference up to now because I think it was important to do what we said we will but with the dissolution of this parliament I will now consider the options purely on their merits, no longer with respect to the 2016 vote.
The 2017 GE had over 80% of the MPs standing on manifestos pledging support for Brexit. There is simply no way that can be considered a rejection of Brexit when voting either Labour or Tory was considered safe for Leavers.
The only parties supporting rejecting Brexit in 2017 were the minor parties - who between them got 13% of the vote.
It was ambiguous but I have supported a deal from the 2017 GE to now. The only no deal party got 1.8% of the vote then but leavers on here assured me that was fine as a mandate for no deal.
If the Tories win a majority as is more likely than not, my support for a deal will remain. If they dont then I shall move on to revoke.
Sir John Curtice predicting there will be over 100 seats won by parties other than the Conservatives and Labour could easily be true if the LibDems and Cons pick over the carcass of Labour seats.
Even if he were right, it is not inconsistent with a healthy Tory majority.
I think John Curtice thinks it’s going to be a bad night for the Tories - shocking
The Tory strategy is very high risk: potentially sacrifice Guildford, Wimbledon and Putney in order to win Workington, Bishop Auckland and Barrow & Furness.
Whilst being led by old Etonians.....it might well work but only because of Corbyn.
I dont think it will work. It all comes down to party machines. The Tories have had years of decline. Labour membership in contrast is half a million. Added to which some of the places the Tories want to win with high Leave votes are not the sort of places Tories from safe Tory seats will feel comfortable visiting especially in the dark. I know Tories on here dont want to hear the sentiments i advocate but i think this election in december could backfire
Agreed, but then both of us probably are wearing shit coloured specs when looking at our old party, so who knows?
lol - I am that repelled by the Tories I am seriously thinking about tactically voting Labour as the MP seeking re-election is pro-EU. I have come to this conclusion over the summer and that tactical voter website validates this. I will encourage family members who live in the same seat to vote LD as former Tories they will never vote Labour tactically but it will be several votes the Tories dont get!
Could be quite a bit of this.
Tories out number one priority for lots of voters
I thought you said a vote for Tory Swinson is just a vote for the Tories anyway?
Its acceptable in Tory LD marginals. If you live in one of them you have my permission!! to vote Tory Swinson.
It is a fact I am sure we can agree that in Lab Tory contests a vote for Tory Swinson makes a Tory hard Brexit more likely
any vote for Labour enables anti semites and haters.
So when this GE is over, and IF there is still no majority in parliament in favour of leaving, can Leavers please accept that the shaky mandate they had in 2016 is no more and please just shut TFU and go away! 😂😂
Nope, if the Lib Dems and SNP dont have a majority its safe to say there is no mandate to remain.
So we have two GEs to give a mandate to deliver Brexit and the public refuse the mandate. Yet you still expect the rest of us to stick to an even earlier mandate from 2016 that the Tories have failed to deliver? How many losers revotes before you give up?
Leaving with any deal has been my first preference up to now because I think it was important to do what we said we will but with the dissolution of this parliament I will now consider the options purely on their merits, no longer with respect to the 2016 vote.
The 2017 GE had over 80% of the MPs standing on manifestos pledging support for Brexit. There is simply no way that can be considered a rejection of Brexit when voting either Labour or Tory was considered safe for Leavers.
The only parties supporting rejecting Brexit in 2017 were the minor parties - who between them got 13% of the vote.
Which is why many voters will be wary about voting Labour again. Labour campaigned on a Remain/PV platform in many locations and the people who backed them then had their votes taken as somehow votes for Brexit.
These are the seats I would be concentrating on winning if I were planning the Labour campaign:
Hastings & Rye Chipping Barnet Harrow East Watford Chingford Reading West Southport Stevenage Cities of London & Westminster Worthing East Uxbridge Wimbledon Wycombe
If they win Wycombe and Uxbridge its a Labour landslide with JC PM
Personally I think Labour should concentrate on defence, plus a handful of others. Just as the LibDems shouldn't blow resources on [laces like Uxbridge and Bedford (sorry, Mike), Labour shouldn't get carried away with "one more heave" sruff and go for loads of new gains.
The seats in the list are ones that are moving demographically towards Labour and therefore I thought they might be worth targeting on that basis.
Doubts about Swinson, doubts about Corbyn but either are better than Johnson.
I cannot belie you actually mean that.
I look at the past four years and say no thanks. We need change.
Shame that no change is on offer then. The Liberal Democrats offer a change of approach, but are not going to win. Corbyn offers more of the same done much more badly.
Ah, FPTP. The worst system in the world. Britain sucks.
These are the seats I would be concentrating on winning if I were planning the Labour campaign:
Hastings & Rye Chipping Barnet Harrow East Watford Chingford Reading West Southport Stevenage Cities of London & Westminster Worthing East Uxbridge Wimbledon Wycombe
If they win Wycombe and Uxbridge its a Labour landslide with JC PM
It would be hard to think of a more atypical constituency than Uxbridge. I wouldn't make any predictions, or draw any inferences from it.
Well it has incredibly similar demographics to around where I live. As has been stated if Uxbridge goes then it won't bother Boris because Tories will be sub 270 seats.
That’s actually an argument for Bozo staying in Uxbridge. Like an insurance policy - he won’t like the hard and thankless work of being LOTO and if the Tories do badly the Uxbridge electors may save him from such a fate.
I don't think Johnson will have any difficulty holding Uxbridge.
His biggest difficulty will be from standing somewhere else.....
Comments
Leaving with any deal has been my first preference up to now because I think it was important to do what we said we will but with the dissolution of this parliament I will now consider the options purely on their merits, no longer with respect to the 2016 vote.
Vote with care, my friends.
A GE on Brexit cant be a GE on Brexit if we get Brexit either way!!
Hastings & Rye
Chipping Barnet
Harrow East
Watford
Chingford
Reading West
Southport
Stevenage
Cities of London & Westminster
Worthing East
Uxbridge
Wimbledon
Wycombe
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour
It is also worth pointing out that many of those MPs won their seats in 2010 and have now had 9 years. That will be important. Some have a good reputation locally but others are pretty unpopular, even in their own party. I suspect that their ability to motivate their own teams for a December poll is going to be a factor.
It is ridiculous to call a GE as a request for a mandate for Brexit but then demand we Brexit anyway if you dont get the mandate.
I already posted a link to this graph showing the polling movements in the six months before the two elections were called, and during the campaign period last time round.
e.g. I might have held back a little on recommending Labour in Bolsover....
Tories out number one priority for lots of voters
EDIT: beaten to it by @Recidivist
The aspect to note from the LD positioning is they will happily work with EITHER a Conservative minority or Labour minority administration but not a Conservative administration headed by Johnson or a Labour administration headed by Corbyn.
As far as the Conservatives is concerned, what is Johnson's life expectancy as leader if he actually does no better than May? Hours or will he try to cling to leadership amidst the storm which would engulf him if he had so clearly failed to deliver on the election he wanted so badly? I do think the biggest mistake the Conservatives made was not to oust May in the immediate aftermath of June 2017.
As for Corbyn he would also have failed though he might not see it in those terms. The truth is it's not just him - in fact, it really isn't him at all but McDonnell and the lunatic economic policies he espouses.
I suspect Swinson and others would make the price of any support (even C&S) a second referendum - Labour have at times supported that, I presume even a post-Johnson Conservative Party wouldn't. Beyond that, Labour can put up what it likes - we can only hope the defeated Tories won't abstain as they did on Wilson's QS in March 1974 but to be fair what Healey was proposing then and what McDonnell would be proposing now are two very different things.
Recommends Soubrey, as I'm sure you were about to ask
Amazing only the FBPE echo chamber thinks like this.
https://tactical.vote/all (based on last election) and tactical-vote.uk (which is the People's Vote site, in preparation).
1. If it's a Labour-held seat vote Labour to keep the Tories out.
2. If Labour are second behind a Tory vote Labour to get the Tories out.
3. If Labour are second behind a Liberal Democrat vote Labour to get the Tory Liberals out.
4. If Labour are in third place then a Tory is unfortunately guaranteed to win and you can freely vote your conscience for Labour.
Simple!
It is a fact I am sure we can agree that in Lab Tory contests a vote for Tory Swinson makes a Tory hard Brexit more likely
https://youtu.be/KFC_tyEHalE
Good start to the GE Campaign.
The only parties supporting rejecting Brexit in 2017 were the minor parties - who between them got 13% of the vote.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-30/brexit-could-boris-johnson-lose-his-own-seat-in-election/11651930
So, no thanks
....the SNP are reliant on voters in England rejecting Mr Johnson’s blandishments and charm.
It is not a process over which the party has any control.
Cummings approach is based on data and data analytics, and he extensively tests (both in person and through analysis) what messages and slogans work. He is also very good at campaign governance and organisation, and recognising what ‘events’ are just noise and which ones have political significance.
That applies as much to constituency campaigns as referendums. It’s just there are more moving parts in the former.
4. Vote for whoever is 2nd even if its Tory Swinson
Because the NHS was great under labour
oh...
Still, they have learnt and its great in Wales
Oh.....
Next
Squeaky bum time for a LOT of Midlands MPs on that....
https://twitter.com/tpearce003/status/1189515712370499584?s=20
If the Tories win a majority as is more likely than not, my support for a deal will remain. If they dont then I shall move on to revoke.
He’s usually right.
Get some kip, luv....
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1189519176735580160?s=20