So the plan is that either Boris goes to the country in triumph, having delivered a Brexit deal (albeit a rotten one), or he goes to the country on a 'rid me of these troublesome remainiacs who can't agree anything, and then I'll deliver'.
Not a bad plan. Puts Labour in a very tricky position.
Just don't vote for the election. Hold off until something comes up.
Watching out for the SNP now... wondering whether they will put something in their manifesto along the lines of "majority of MPs = mandate for independence". Just to fuck things up a bit. Could throw the whole election into chaos if they do. If there is an election, that is.
If the Tories fight the election on "Get Brexit Done" they could possibly come an almighty cropper. "Vote for us to deliver what we failed to come anywhere near delivering" isn't a good message.
I think Alastair Campbell was on to something when he said Dominic Cummings has let it go to his head that he was played by Benedict Cumberbatch in such a big film. "Take Back Control" was brilliant. "Get Brexit Done" is awful. You're fighting the last war, Dom.
Pass the deal first? Labour now have a ready made excuse.
Dear me.
No, not pass the deal first - debate and either accept or reject the deal first.
He'll get 288 Tories, and about 15 Independent Tories (if he promises to restore their whip) and the SNP. That gets him to about 338 votes.
He needs 434, so about 96 Labour and/or LDs to party.
I read somewhere that a good 140 Labour MPs had written to Corbyn saying, for heaven't sake, don't do it, so if he does it anyway, and the rest of his 245 MPs are loyal, it will be close.
Hypothetical polls should be taken with a rather large grain of salt.
Still rather interesting. I note the dates of the poll, but are there really millions of people who will self destruct on Brexit by switching to BXP, in the Hope's of getting Brexit?
I'm not entirely sure what's in it for Labour to accept this proposal. Surely the simple response of "just put the flipping bill down for consideration and stop messing around" is called for?
Just don't vote for the election. Hold off until something comes up.
But then they potentially run up against No Deal again. And they are going to look completely clueless as well as disunited and dishonest (which they are, of course, but they need some at least vaguely plausible way of hiding it).
Pass the deal first? Labour now have a ready made excuse.
Dear me.
No, not pass the deal first - debate and either accept or reject the deal first.
He'll get 288 Tories, and about 15 Independent Tories (if he promises to restore their whip) and the SNP. That gets him to about 338 votes.
He needs 434, so about 96 Labour and/or LDs to party.
I read somewhere that a good 140 Labour MPs had written to Corbyn saying, for heaven't sake, don't do it, so if he does it anyway, and the rest of his 245 MPs are loyal, it will be close.
Labour will all head one way or the other. The optics of being split on a vote like that are too horrific to even contemplate.
I'm not entirely sure what's in it for Labour to accept this proposal. Surely the simple response of "just put the flipping bill down for consideration and stop messing around" is called for?
"just put the flipping bill down for consideration so we can start messing around"
Pass the deal first? Labour now have a ready made excuse.
Dear me.
No, not pass the deal first - debate and either accept or reject the deal first.
He'll get 288 Tories, and about 15 Independent Tories (if he promises to restore their whip) and the SNP. That gets him to about 338 votes.
He needs 434, so about 96 Labour and/or LDs to party.
I read somewhere that a good 140 Labour MPs had written to Corbyn saying, for heaven't sake, don't do it, so if he does it anyway, and the rest of his 245 MPs are loyal, it will be close.
Laura K has fallen into the trap of providing the PM a platform for his spin. A 12th Dec election is no more in his hands than a 31st Oct Brexit has been.
I'm sure Labour will stick to its guns: no election called till after 31st Oct. So there won't be an election till after Xmas. I'm not convinced this is necessarily good for Labour. If we assume that Boris *doesn't* get Brexit over the line in the next few weeks - or if it's amended into BINO and then passed - a December election would suit Labour quite well.
Pass the deal first? Labour now have a ready made excuse.
Dear me.
No, not pass the deal first - debate and either accept or reject the deal first.
He'll get 288 Tories, and about 15 Independent Tories (if he promises to restore their whip) and the SNP. That gets him to about 338 votes.
He needs 434, so about 96 Labour and/or LDs to party.
I read somewhere that a good 140 Labour MPs had written to Corbyn saying, for heaven't sake, don't do it, so if he does it anyway, and the rest of his 245 MPs are loyal, it will be close.
Labour will all head one way or the other. The optics of being split on a vote like that are too horrific to even contemplate.
Because in this case it fits with an overall trend of Biden seen in 4 polls of Biden slipping back & the Mayor moving forward
It's a little less clearcut than that - and Iowa in isolation is hardly determinative.
Biden seems still to be holding his own in the rustbelt states... and this was interesting: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/467283-poll-warren-leads-sanders-by-4-points-in-california While Warren was the top choice among female Democratic voters at 31 percent, she trailed Sanders by six points amongst Latino voters, and was behind Biden (30 percent), Sanders (20 percent) and Harris (16 percent) amongst black voters, polling at only 13 percent.
“We may be seeing the earliest signs of a stall in Warren’s rise and that rests squarely with her low numbers among non-white respondents," Change Research co-founder Pat Reilly told the radio station. "Her base is clearly white people in general and white women in particular.”...
Biden might crater after Iowa, but equally he might not. His policy stance (and Buttigieg's, FWIW) is for now considerably more popular with the electorate than those of Warren and Sanders (exemplified by the nearly three quarters backing the public option against only half the electorate wanting 'Medicare for All'). Of course that probably shades the other way with the Democratic selectorate, but it does show that there is room for a moderate to win. And the problem is that there is no massively compelling alternative to Biden.
Hypothetical polls should be taken with a rather large grain of salt.
Still rather interesting. I note the dates of the poll, but are there really millions of people who will self destruct on Brexit by switching to BXP, in the Hope's of getting Brexit?
Never underestimate the intellectual ability of the electorate.
If there is a 2019 election, @AlastairMeeks is gonna have some explaining to do...
Other opinions were out there. That smart @David_herdson argued the opposite. Perhaps you should listen to him more.
Just teasing. I basically agreed with your reasoning although I was less certain of it than you were. But yes, @david_herdson is always well worth listening to.
If the Tories fight the election on "Get Brexit Done" they could possibly come an almighty cropper. "Vote for us to deliver what we failed to come anywhere near delivering" isn't a good message.
I think Alastair Campbell was on to something when he said Dominic Cummings has let it go to his head that he was played by Benedict Cumberbatch in such a big film. "Take Back Control" was brilliant. "Get Brexit Done" is awful. You're fighting the last war, Dom.
That is an extremely good point. Why should we trust you to deliver something you've committed to and failed to deliver for the past three years.
If you think James Cleverly's "we'd have made good on our pledges had it not been for the pesky opposition" was droll, just wait until they face Andrew Neil having been asked that question.
Brexit aside (or perhaps included) we are living through a golden era of government not having the votes to pass silly laws. Think how many pointless Criminal Justice Acts we’ve been spared since 2015.
I know it is Guido, but the bit about Chukka is as audacious as any economically truthful quote could ever be.
Chuka has also been bombarding innocent voters in Cities of London and Westminster with leaflets claiming it's between him and the Tories. This will be a surprise to the local Labour Party, which got 14,857 votes in 2017 compared with the LibDems' 4,270. Still, it's heartwarming to see that's he's fitting so well into his new party.
You are talking about ancient history,Mr Navabi. The Euro elections are a much better guide to next time.
Certainly that's what the LibDems would have you believe. I guess that means a BXP government?
No, because the sensible Conservatives will fall in with the Liberal Democrats, as will the sensible Labourites. The rump of the old Conservative Party has already been taken over by fruitcakes and other nutters, and I don`t think people will fall for the Tory dirty tricks again.
Going into the election with the deal going through will give Johnson a huge boost .
At least if the deal hasn’t gone through there’s s chance the Leave vote might still be split.
Agreed. That’s Labour’s only reasonable play now I think. If their vote is going to be split, they need to make sure the Tory vote is too.
Labour are screwed either way - either they're blocking a deal that in the eyes of the general public will Get Brexit Done At Bloody Last without a crash-out, or they have to fight Boris immediately after he has Gotten Brexit Done At Bloody Last.
What they needed was for Boris to have to fight an election without having obtained a Deal - that was their only hope of victory.
Instead, by trying so hard to screw Boris via the Benn Act, they ended up screwing themselves much harder. Beautiful poetic justice!
Seven days to no-deal. Nobody has passed any legislation to stop it yet. Are we going to no-deal by accident?
Probably not (as EU will more than likely grant an exemption) but it is amazing how relaxed everyone is that we're just a week away from No Deal with absolutely no assurance that we're going to get a veto...
Going into the election with the deal going through will give Johnson a huge boost .
At least if the deal hasn’t gone through there’s s chance the Leave vote might still be split.
Agreed. That’s Labour’s only reasonable play now I think. If their vote is going to be split, they need to make sure the Tory vote is too.
Labour are screwed either way - either they're blocking a deal that in the eyes of the general public will Get Brexit Done At Bloody Last without a crash-out, or they have to fight Boris immediately after he has Gotten Brexit Done At Bloody Last.
What they needed was for Boris to have to fight an election without having obtained a Deal - that was their only hope of victory.
Instead, by trying so hard to screw Boris via the Benn Act, they ended up screwing themselves much harder. Beautiful poetic justice!
But they will also have saved the country from the catastrophe of crashing out with no deal, as well as from the very likely consequent further catastrophe of a Corbyn or Corbyn-style government. So put it down to noble and principled self-sacrifice.
Going into the election with the deal going through will give Johnson a huge boost .
At least if the deal hasn’t gone through there’s s chance the Leave vote might still be split.
Agreed. That’s Labour’s only reasonable play now I think. If their vote is going to be split, they need to make sure the Tory vote is too.
Labour are screwed either way - either they're blocking a deal that in the eyes of the general public will Get Brexit Done At Bloody Last without a crash-out, or they have to fight Boris immediately after he has Gotten Brexit Done At Bloody Last.
What they needed was for Boris to have to fight an election without having obtained a Deal - that was their only hope of victory.
Instead, by trying so hard to screw Boris via the Benn Act, they ended up screwing themselves much harder. Beautiful poetic justice!
I'm chuckling at the thought of Boris Johnson fighting an election saying he's just Got Brexit Done And Look How Great It Is. Good for Labour. As for the Tories saying Let's Get Brexit Done if they haven't managed to get it done in the three years they've been in office since the referendum? Also good for Labour.
The Tories will fight the election on immigration, which for much of the population is what "Brexit" is code for anyway. They haven't got much else left.
Going into the election with the deal going through will give Johnson a huge boost .
At least if the deal hasn’t gone through there’s s chance the Leave vote might still be split.
Agreed. That’s Labour’s only reasonable play now I think. If their vote is going to be split, they need to make sure the Tory vote is too.
Labour are screwed either way - either they're blocking a deal that in the eyes of the general public will Get Brexit Done At Bloody Last without a crash-out, or they have to fight Boris immediately after he has Gotten Brexit Done At Bloody Last.
What they needed was for Boris to have to fight an election without having obtained a Deal - that was their only hope of victory.
Instead, by trying so hard to screw Boris via the Benn Act, they ended up screwing themselves much harder. Beautiful poetic justice!
I'm chuckling at the thought of Boris Johnson fighting an election saying he's just Got Brexit Done And Look How Great It Is. Good for Labour. As for the Tories saying Let's Get Brexit Done after they have been in office for three years since the referendum and haven't managed? Also good for Labour.
The Tories will fight the election on immigration, which for much of the population is what "Brexit" is code for anyway. They haven't got much else left.
Presumably you'll be encouraging Labour to vote for a GE then? And good afternoon everyone.
Going into the election with the deal going through will give Johnson a huge boost .
At least if the deal hasn’t gone through there’s s chance the Leave vote might still be split.
Agreed. That’s Labour’s only reasonable play now I think. If their vote is going to be split, they need to make sure the Tory vote is too.
Labour are screwed either way - either they're blocking a deal that in the eyes of the general public will Get Brexit Done At Bloody Last without a crash-out, or they have to fight Boris immediately after he has Gotten Brexit Done At Bloody Last.
What they needed was for Boris to have to fight an election without having obtained a Deal - that was their only hope of victory.
Instead, by trying so hard to screw Boris via the Benn Act, they ended up screwing themselves much harder. Beautiful poetic justice!
I'm chuckling at the thought of Boris Johnson fighting an election saying he's just Got Brexit Done And Look How Great It Is. Good for Labour. As for the Tories saying Let's Get Brexit Done after they have been in office for three years since the referendum and haven't managed? Also good for Labour.
The Tories will fight the election on immigration, which for much of the population is what "Brexit" is code for anyway. They haven't got much else left.
Presumably you'll be encouraging Labour to vote for a GE then? And good afternoon everyone.
Going into the election with the deal going through will give Johnson a huge boost .
At least if the deal hasn’t gone through there’s s chance the Leave vote might still be split.
Agreed. That’s Labour’s only reasonable play now I think. If their vote is going to be split, they need to make sure the Tory vote is too.
Labour are screwed either way - either they're blocking a deal that in the eyes of the general public will Get Brexit Done At Bloody Last without a crash-out, or they have to fight Boris immediately after he has Gotten Brexit Done At Bloody Last.
What they needed was for Boris to have to fight an election without having obtained a Deal - that was their only hope of victory.
Instead, by trying so hard to screw Boris via the Benn Act, they ended up screwing themselves much harder. Beautiful poetic justice!
I'm chuckling at the thought of Boris Johnson fighting an election saying he's just Got Brexit Done And Look How Great It Is. Good for Labour. As for the Tories saying Let's Get Brexit Done after they have been in office for three years since the referendum and haven't managed? Also good for Labour.
The Tories will fight the election on immigration, which for much of the population is what "Brexit" is code for anyway. They haven't got much else left.
Presumably you'll be encouraging Labour to vote for a GE then? And good afternoon everyone.
So if Boris gets all three legislation passed by 6 Nov, and wins an election (if it happens) we could be leaving EU on Friday 13th instead of Halloween!
Going into the election with the deal going through will give Johnson a huge boost .
At least if the deal hasn’t gone through there’s s chance the Leave vote might still be split.
Agreed. That’s Labour’s only reasonable play now I think. If their vote is going to be split, they need to make sure the Tory vote is too.
Labour are screwed either way - either they're blocking a deal that in the eyes of the general public will Get Brexit Done At Bloody Last without a crash-out, or they have to fight Boris immediately after he has Gotten Brexit Done At Bloody Last.
What they needed was for Boris to have to fight an election without having obtained a Deal - that was their only hope of victory.
Instead, by trying so hard to screw Boris via the Benn Act, they ended up screwing themselves much harder. Beautiful poetic justice!
I'm chuckling at the thought of Boris Johnson fighting an election saying he's just Got Brexit Done And Look How Great It Is. Good for Labour. As for the Tories saying Let's Get Brexit Done if they haven't managed to get it done in the three years they've been in office since the referendum? Also good for Labour.
The Tories will fight the election on immigration, which for much of the population is what "Brexit" is code for anyway. They haven't got much else left.
An election immediately after Brexit in which people discover we still have free movement wouldn't go well for the Conservatives.
Going into the election with the deal going through will give Johnson a huge boost .
At least if the deal hasn’t gone through there’s s chance the Leave vote might still be split.
Agreed. That’s Labour’s only reasonable play now I think. If their vote is going to be split, they need to make sure the Tory vote is too.
Labour are screwed either way - either they're blocking a deal that in the eyes of the general public will Get Brexit Done At Bloody Last without a crash-out, or they have to fight Boris immediately after he has Gotten Brexit Done At Bloody Last.
What they needed was for Boris to have to fight an election without having obtained a Deal - that was their only hope of victory.
Instead, by trying so hard to screw Boris via the Benn Act, they ended up screwing themselves much harder. Beautiful poetic justice!
I'm chuckling at the thought of Boris Johnson fighting an election saying he's just Got Brexit Done And Look How Great It Is. Good for Labour. As for the Tories saying Let's Get Brexit Done after they have been in office for three years since the referendum and haven't managed? Also good for Labour.
The Tories will fight the election on immigration, which for much of the population is what "Brexit" is code for anyway. They haven't got much else left.
Presumably you'll be encouraging Labour to vote for a GE then? And good afternoon everyone.
Did we not see polling on the previous thread showing Warren dropping back with the effect that Biden was out front again (albeit not steaming ahead)? Think it might have been from Robert.
That was national polling, where Biden was still on 27-28%, but that Warren had dropped from parity to the low 20s.
Iowa is going to be crucial, because early results affect later ones.
In 2008, Guiliani's approach was the "Florida Firewall". He campaigned almost exclusively there, because willing Florida would catapult him into a delegate lead should he win there.
And at this stage in the 2008 promaries, he was on around 30%, with Mitt Romney and John McCain both registering 10% in Florida.
In every poll before Iowa, Guiliani was leading - usually with significant double digit leads.
Then Guiliani flopped in Iowa and then New Hampshire. And that was it. The mantle of leadership in Florida passed to Romney and McCain.
You know who won Iowa in 2008 ?
Mick Huckabee
True that.
And actually there are a remarkable number of similarities between Huckabee and Buttigieg.
1. They're both pretty religious. 2. They both have funny names.
There are obviously loads more, but I don't have time to share them right now.
Comments
Sadly the timing of the election is not in his gift.
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1187399007510958082?s=20
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1187399919604289538?s=21
Bozo has set a trap. He could get the deal and a GE straight after that if I’m understanding his interview correctly .
Really Labour are in a horrible position . They can’t let the deal through and let him bask in the glory straight afterwards .
Or are we going below 25?
If there is an election, that is.
I think Alastair Campbell was on to something when he said Dominic Cummings has let it go to his head that he was played by Benedict Cumberbatch in such a big film. "Take Back Control" was brilliant. "Get Brexit Done" is awful. You're fighting the last war, Dom.
He needs 434, so about 96 Labour and/or LDs to party.
I read somewhere that a good 140 Labour MPs had written to Corbyn saying, for heaven't sake, don't do it, so if he does it anyway, and the rest of his 245 MPs are loyal, it will be close.
(Checks betting slips)
Yes please!
Get it done Labour. This is it.
Will just get bogged down with loads of amendements on customs unions and second referendums.
More like.
I'm sure Labour will stick to its guns: no election called till after 31st Oct. So there won't be an election till after Xmas. I'm not convinced this is necessarily good for Labour. If we assume that Boris *doesn't* get Brexit over the line in the next few weeks - or if it's amended into BINO and then passed - a December election would suit Labour quite well.
Biden seems still to be holding his own in the rustbelt states... and this was interesting:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/467283-poll-warren-leads-sanders-by-4-points-in-california
While Warren was the top choice among female Democratic voters at 31 percent, she trailed Sanders by six points amongst Latino voters, and was behind Biden (30 percent), Sanders (20 percent) and Harris (16 percent) amongst black voters, polling at only 13 percent.
“We may be seeing the earliest signs of a stall in Warren’s rise and that rests squarely with her low numbers among non-white respondents," Change Research co-founder Pat Reilly told the radio station. "Her base is clearly white people in general and white women in particular.”...
Biden might crater after Iowa, but equally he might not.
His policy stance (and Buttigieg's, FWIW) is for now considerably more popular with the electorate than those of Warren and Sanders (exemplified by the nearly three quarters backing the public option against only half the electorate wanting 'Medicare for All').
Of course that probably shades the other way with the Democratic selectorate, but it does show that there is room for a moderate to win. And the problem is that there is no massively compelling alternative to Biden.
Going into the election with the deal going through will give Johnson a huge boost .
At least if the deal hasn’t gone through there’s s chance the Leave vote might still be split.
Not to mention "manage your own risk" of predictions.
The tip was still exceptional, and very profitable for those that followed it and understood it.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/oct/24/government-spent-2m-on-porn-block-before-policy-was-dropped
con: gives up control of election timing
Pause.
Ah, my shuttlecraft: how kind...
If you think James Cleverly's "we'd have made good on our pledges had it not been for the pesky opposition" was droll, just wait until they face Andrew Neil having been asked that question.
https://twitter.com/PARLYapp/status/1187399048946470912?s=20
Now voting on Blackford's 'don't end FoM'
been taken over by fruitcakes and other nutters, and I don`t think people will fall for the Tory dirty tricks again.
What they needed was for Boris to have to fight an election without having obtained a Deal - that was their only hope of victory.
Instead, by trying so hard to screw Boris via the Benn Act, they ended up screwing themselves much harder. Beautiful poetic justice!
https://twitter.com/anthonyjwells/status/1187403259360825344?s=20
I have predicted before that Buttigieg will surprise in Iowa.
The Tories will fight the election on immigration, which for much of the population is what "Brexit" is code for anyway. They haven't got much else left.
My opinion, as per PT, Labour should block it.
But it's Jez's opinion that counts.
https://twitter.com/woodstockjag/status/1187405222458601475?s=21