Does anyone seriously believe a 4 year old did that?
Unfortunately some Twitter readers do. Funny how all the people in the carriage apart from the four-year-old lad who uttered such a grammatically faultless compound-complex sentence were sitting down if they were Yorkshire people on a train pulling into Doncaster.
Does anyone seriously believe a 4 year old did that?
Unfortunately some Twitter readers do. Funny how all the people in the carriage apart from the four-year-old lad who uttered such a grammatically faultless compound-complex sentence were sitting down if they were Yorkshire people on a train pulling into Doncaster.
I mean the whole “everyone erupted into applause” thing is literally a meme.
Did we not see polling on the previous thread showing Warren dropping back with the effect that Biden was out front again (albeit not steaming ahead)? Think it might have been from Robert.
That was national polling, where Biden was still on 27-28%, but that Warren had dropped from parity to the low 20s.
Iowa is going to be crucial, because early results affect later ones.
In 2008, Guiliani's approach was the "Florida Firewall". He campaigned almost exclusively there, because willing Florida would catapult him into a delegate lead should he win there.
And at this stage in the 2008 promaries, he was on around 30%, with Mitt Romney and John McCain both registering 10% in Florida.
In every poll before Iowa, Guiliani was leading - usually with significant double digit leads.
Then Guiliani flopped in Iowa and then New Hampshire. And that was it. The mantle of leadership in Florida passed to Romney and McCain.
Does anyone seriously believe a 4 year old did that?
Unfortunately some Twitter readers do. Funny how all the people in the carriage apart from the four-year-old lad who uttered such a grammatically faultless compound-complex sentence were sitting down if they were Yorkshire people on a train pulling into Doncaster.
I mean the whole “everyone erupted into applause” thing is literally a meme.
Did we not see polling on the previous thread showing Warren dropping back with the effect that Biden was out front again (albeit not steaming ahead)? Think it might have been from Robert.
That was national polling, where Biden was still on 27-28%, but that Warren had dropped from parity to the low 20s.
Iowa is going to be crucial, because early results affect later ones.
In 2008, Guiliani's approach was the "Florida Firewall". He campaigned almost exclusively there, because willing Florida would catapult him into a delegate lead should he win there.
And at this stage in the 2008 promaries, he was on around 30%, with Mitt Romney and John McCain both registering 10% in Florida.
In every poll before Iowa, Guiliani was leading - usually with significant double digit leads.
Then Guiliani flopped in Iowa and then New Hampshire. And that was it. The mantle of leadership in Florida passed to Romney and McCain.
You know who won Iowa in 2008 ?
Mick Huckabee
True that.
And actually there are a remarkable number of similarities between Huckabee and Buttigieg.
1. They're both pretty religious. 2. They both have funny names.
There are obviously loads more, but I don't have time to share them right now.
If the EU want to get the deal through this is what they should do .
And this depends on Johnson doing the following.
He puts down a vote for Monday .
The EU then say the following tomorrow .
A one month extension to ratify but there will only be the extra two months if an election is called .
This forces MPs to either vote for the deal or the opposition to agree to an election on Monday.
This is actually a really good idea.
Thanks perhaps I need a job as a political advisor ! Lol
I think it makes sense . The EU is just reacting to the UK so it’s not like they’re interfering.
They can’t be blamed for no deal , it’s upto MPs . Either ratify or election its their choice.
But by saying that after Johnson announces hes going for an election, for realsies this time, they would be forcing him to vote against getting it done now, in a month. Sure we know he wants a GE but at the moment could u turn and seek to ratify. Announce after he gets the ball rolling and hes essentially opposing his own deal for a GE.
The Buttigieg strategy is to win Iowa, and to use the boost in the polling to replace Biden as the moderate candidate.
For this to work, Biden needs to come third (or worse) in Iowa and New Hampshire.
If Biden beats Buttigieg in Iowa, it's all over for Buttigieg, and the nomination will be a battle between Warren and Biden.
If it's Warren-Buttigieg-Biden, then it's still probably going to be a Warren-Biden fight, because Biden should win South Carolina.
But if it's Buttigieg-Warren-Biden (or even Buttigieg-Warren-Sanders), then I think Biden is going to find it much harder. There is a huge amount of evidence that in Primary elections, early results influence later ones. And there are also a lot of moderate supporters of Booker, O'Rourke, Kloubachar and others who will need to find new homes.
So, to become nominee, Buttigieg has to win Iowa. I think it's probably a 40% shot for him. And he then has to beat Warren to the nomination, which is probably a 33% shot.
In other words, he should be around 8-1. If he keeps moving up in the Iowa and national polls, then those numbers will have to be tweaked.
Just on a train pulling into Sheffield. A four-year old has just stood up and said "Hey you southern snobs, Boris didn't send the letter." Everyone erupted into applause.
Did we not see polling on the previous thread showing Warren dropping back with the effect that Biden was out front again (albeit not steaming ahead)? Think it might have been from Robert.
That was national polling, where Biden was still on 27-28%, but that Warren had dropped from parity to the low 20s.
Iowa is going to be crucial, because early results affect later ones.
In 2008, Guiliani's approach was the "Florida Firewall". He campaigned almost exclusively there, because willing Florida would catapult him into a delegate lead should he win there.
And at this stage in the 2008 promaries, he was on around 30%, with Mitt Romney and John McCain both registering 10% in Florida.
In every poll before Iowa, Guiliani was leading - usually with significant double digit leads.
Then Guiliani flopped in Iowa and then New Hampshire. And that was it. The mantle of leadership in Florida passed to Romney and McCain.
You know who won Iowa in 2008 ?
Mick Huckabee
True that.
And actually there are a remarkable number of similarities between Huckabee and Buttigieg.
1. They're both pretty religious. 2. They both have funny names.
There are obviously loads more, but I don't have time to share them right now.
Yes, but Huckabee is very tall and Mayor Pete is a little person.
If the EU want to get the deal through this is what they should do .
And this depends on Johnson doing the following.
He puts down a vote for Monday .
The EU then say the following tomorrow .
A one month extension to ratify but there will only be the extra two months if an election is called .
This forces MPs to either vote for the deal or the opposition to agree to an election on Monday.
This is actually a really good idea.
Thanks perhaps I need a job as a political advisor ! Lol
I think it makes sense . The EU is just reacting to the UK so it’s not like they’re interfering.
They can’t be blamed for no deal , it’s upto MPs . Either ratify or election its their choice.
But by saying that after Johnson announces hes going for an election, for realsies this time, they would be forcing him to vote against getting it done now, in a month. Sure we know he wants a GE but at the moment could u turn and seek to ratify. Announce after he gets the ball rolling and hes essentially opposing his own deal for a GE.
No because the EU are simply responding to the situation in the UK.
If the EU want to get the deal through this is what they should do .
And this depends on Johnson doing the following.
He puts down a vote for Monday .
The EU then say the following tomorrow .
A one month extension to ratify but there will only be the extra two months if an election is called .
This forces MPs to either vote for the deal or the opposition to agree to an election on Monday.
This is actually a really good idea.
Thanks perhaps I need a job as a political advisor ! Lol
I think it makes sense . The EU is just reacting to the UK so it’s not like they’re interfering.
They can’t be blamed for no deal , it’s upto MPs . Either ratify or election its their choice.
But by saying that after Johnson announces hes going for an election, for realsies this time, they would be forcing him to vote against getting it done now, in a month. Sure we know he wants a GE but at the moment could u turn and seek to ratify. Announce after he gets the ball rolling and hes essentially opposing his own deal for a GE.
No because the EU are simply responding to the situation in the UK.
But in a way which makes him either u turn or admit hed rather GE than pass his deal.
Be fascinating to see if there is an announcement from EU tomorrow on the extension.
This would indicate working in cahoots with the EU and they can now say (as suggested below) 14 days technical unless the election is held as per PM announcement, then 31st Jan.
They are not then making any demands, but reacting to the situation here.
If there is a 2019 election, @AlastairMeeks is gonna have some explaining to do...
He was advocating laying November (which is now impossible) and that only 5th December or 12th December were possible. He’s said the odds have now changed in the last week since a Deal was done and agreed by Parliament, which changes the mood somewhat.
To be honest there’s a good case for laying December now but I’m not yet until I get a better sense of the numbers for it over the weekend.
Did we not see polling on the previous thread showing Warren dropping back with the effect that Biden was out front again (albeit not steaming ahead)? Think it might have been from Robert.
That was national polling, where Biden was still on 27-28%, but that Warren had dropped from parity to the low 20s.
Iowa is going to be crucial, because early results affect later ones.
In 2008, Guiliani's approach was the "Florida Firewall". He campaigned almost exclusively there, because willing Florida would catapult him into a delegate lead should he win there.
And at this stage in the 2008 promaries, he was on around 30%, with Mitt Romney and John McCain both registering 10% in Florida.
In every poll before Iowa, Guiliani was leading - usually with significant double digit leads.
Then Guiliani flopped in Iowa and then New Hampshire. And that was it. The mantle of leadership in Florida passed to Romney and McCain.
You know who won Iowa in 2008 ?
Mick Huckabee
True that.
And actually there are a remarkable number of similarities between Huckabee and Buttigieg.
1. They're both pretty religious. 2. They both have funny names.
There are obviously loads more, but I don't have time to share them right now.
Labour will be under huge pressure to agree to an election .
The key though is the EU have to agree the extension tomorrow which pulls the rug from under Corbyn .
I expect that was agreed by Boris with Macron and expect to see the EU to say tomorrow that they have agreed to extend to the 31st January to hold a general election
And of course that would completly snooker labour
If Cummings is behind all this he is a genius but of course only if Boris wins
"This is from ITV’s Paul Brand. The vote on the Queen’s speech could come at 5.45pm, followed by an address by Johnson calling on MPs to back an election." Quote from the Guardian live feed.
That does make the Queen's Speech look very silly. She cannot be happy about being dragged to Parliament to give a speech that has no meaning
Did we not see polling on the previous thread showing Warren dropping back with the effect that Biden was out front again (albeit not steaming ahead)? Think it might have been from Robert.
That was national polling, where Biden was still on 27-28%, but that Warren had dropped from parity to the low 20s.
Iowa is going to be crucial, because early results affect later ones.
In 2008, Guiliani's approach was the "Florida Firewall". He campaigned almost exclusively there, because willing Florida would catapult him into a delegate lead should he win there.
And at this stage in the 2008 promaries, he was on around 30%, with Mitt Romney and John McCain both registering 10% in Florida.
In every poll before Iowa, Guiliani was leading - usually with significant double digit leads.
Then Guiliani flopped in Iowa and then New Hampshire. And that was it. The mantle of leadership in Florida passed to Romney and McCain.
You know who won Iowa in 2008 ?
Mick Huckabee
True that.
And actually there are a remarkable number of similarities between Huckabee and Buttigieg.
1. They're both pretty religious. 2. They both have funny names.
There are obviously loads more, but I don't have time to share them right now.
If there is a 2019 election, @AlastairMeeks is gonna have some explaining to do...
I'm down £40 in that market if it happens. Still there's Corbyn's cowardice to rely on yet so all isn't lost Rich.
I was going to be down a couple of hundred quid, but I covered most of that earlier today.
I remember the T May exit market. Ye Gods luckily I made it back on Bozzy bear.
The betting markets over the past month or so (GE date, Brexit date etc) have been good for traders reacting quickly to shifts in sentiment, but bad for anyone who can't or doesn't want to react fast.
I know it is Guido, but the bit about Chukka is as audacious as any economically truthful quote could ever be.
Chuka has also been bombarding innocent voters in Cities of London and Westminster with leaflets claiming it's between him and the Tories. This will be a surprise to the local Labour Party, which got 14,857 votes in 2017 compared with the LibDems' 4,270. Still, it's heartwarming to see that's he's fitting so well into his new party.
You are talking about ancient history,Mr Navabi. The Euro elections are a much better guide to next time.
Labour will be under huge pressure to agree to an election .
The key though is the EU have to agree the extension tomorrow which pulls the rug from under Corbyn .
It makes Boris look a clown. It's "do or die by 31 October", then it's please let's have an election, then he begs Labour to let there be one, and he doesn't get anything he wants, and then he finally manages to sort out an election when it's the only way to AVOID leaving on 31 October according to terms he learns from the French ambassador who comes round his house to spell them out to him. Who wants the country to be led by an idiot like that?
I know it is Guido, but the bit about Chukka is as audacious as any economically truthful quote could ever be.
Chuka has also been bombarding innocent voters in Cities of London and Westminster with leaflets claiming it's between him and the Tories. This will be a surprise to the local Labour Party, which got 14,857 votes in 2017 compared with the LibDems' 4,270. Still, it's heartwarming to see that's he's fitting so well into his new party.
You are talking about ancient history,Mr Navabi. The Euro elections are a much better guide to next time.
Certainly that's what the LibDems would have you believe. I guess that means a BXP government?
If there is a 2019 election, @AlastairMeeks is gonna have some explaining to do...
I'm down £40 in that market if it happens. Still there's Corbyn's cowardice to rely on yet so all isn't lost Rich.
Is folding when you are holding 7-2off cowardice in your book?
I already know the answer because I happen to know that you are a very competent poker player IRL.
So quit with the childish language.
Labour MPs would be mad to go for it – better waiting until after Christmas in the hope that something comes up.
We need this election. It is the only way to implement a Labour Brexit, never-mind no Brexit.
We’ve ran of track. This is it.
Even Labour don't want a Labour Brexit. Starmer and his team rejected Labour's own proposals when they were presented to them at talks with the government.
If we have an extension by then and there's no chance of a crash out No Deal in the meantime then Corbyn really has to accept or become the new Gordon Brown.
Be fascinating to see if there is an announcement from EU tomorrow on the extension.
This would indicate working in cahoots with the EU and they can now say (as suggested below) 14 days technical unless the election is held as per PM announcement, then 31st Jan.
They are not then making any demands, but reacting to the situation here.
And it is the irony of all ironies that it is the Benn act that has played so completely into Boris hands orchestrated by Cummings amazing skills ( I still want him out of no 10 post the election)
Did we not see polling on the previous thread showing Warren dropping back with the effect that Biden was out front again (albeit not steaming ahead)? Think it might have been from Robert.
That was national polling, where Biden was still on 27-28%, but that Warren had dropped from parity to the low 20s.
Iowa is going to be crucial, because early results affect later ones.
In 2008, Guiliani's approach was the "Florida Firewall". He campaigned almost exclusively there, because willing Florida would catapult him into a delegate lead should he win there.
And at this stage in the 2008 promaries, he was on around 30%, with Mitt Romney and John McCain both registering 10% in Florida.
In every poll before Iowa, Guiliani was leading - usually with significant double digit leads.
Then Guiliani flopped in Iowa and then New Hampshire. And that was it. The mantle of leadership in Florida passed to Romney and McCain.
You know who won Iowa in 2008 ?
Mick Huckabee
True that.
And actually there are a remarkable number of similarities between Huckabee and Buttigieg.
1. They're both pretty religious. 2. They both have funny names.
There are obviously loads more, but I don't have time to share them right now.
American politics is full of silly names
What on earth is Klobuchar when it’s at home?
A small green mineral, known for its soothing properties when liquidised, often used by masseurs, occasionally used as an anointing oil due to its low-stain properties. Usage dates from antiquity in sub-Siberian Russia, but is little-used these days due to cheaper artificial substitutes.
If there is a 2019 election, @AlastairMeeks is gonna have some explaining to do...
I'm down £40 in that market if it happens. Still there's Corbyn's cowardice to rely on yet so all isn't lost Rich.
Is folding when you are holding 7-2off cowardice in your book?
I already know the answer because I happen to know that you are a very competent poker player IRL.
So quit with the childish language.
Labour MPs would be mad to go for it – better waiting until after Christmas in the hope that something comes up.
We need this election. It is the only way to implement a Labour Brexit, never-mind no Brexit.
We’ve ran of track. This is it.
Even Labour don't want a Labour Brexit. Starmer and his team rejected Labour's own proposals when they were presented to them at talks with the government.
Be fascinating to see if there is an announcement from EU tomorrow on the extension.
This would indicate working in cahoots with the EU and they can now say (as suggested below) 14 days technical unless the election is held as per PM announcement, then 31st Jan.
They are not then making any demands, but reacting to the situation here.
And it is the irony of all ironies that it is the Benn act that has played so completely into Boris hands orchestrated by Cummings amazing skills ( I still want him out of no 10 post the election)
Indeed the Benn Act far from preventing progress was its catalyst.
Getting BoZo to do anything constructive takes a firm hand. He has no leadership skills and only operates by puppetry. Far better that Parliament is the puppeteer than Cummings.
If there is a 2019 election, @AlastairMeeks is gonna have some explaining to do...
I'm down £40 in that market if it happens. Still there's Corbyn's cowardice to rely on yet so all isn't lost Rich.
Is folding when you are holding 7-2off cowardice in your book?
I already know the answer because I happen to know that you are a very competent poker player IRL.
So quit with the childish language.
Labour MPs would be mad to go for it – better waiting until after Christmas in the hope that something comes up.
So what is parliament doing between now and then?
Gallowgate is right in this respect, we have run out of track.
I dont want them to do this, I think its cowardly of the entire 2017 parliament to not make a decision on Brexit before going to another GE. But now either you vote Tory if you still want to Brexit (sorry BXP, but its true) or you vote for anyone else if you dont, and pray their voters coordinate even if the parties dont.
He didnt mean it, but Letwin has probably killed off Brexit, as with the stakes so high I think the voters will coordinate well, and Farage is such an ego maniac he'll sink Boris with a few % here and there costing seats.
Did we not see polling on the previous thread showing Warren dropping back with the effect that Biden was out front again (albeit not steaming ahead)? Think it might have been from Robert.
That was national polling, where Biden was still on 27-28%, but that Warren had dropped from parity to the low 20s.
Iowa is going to be crucial, because early results affect later ones.
In 2008, Guiliani's approach was the "Florida Firewall". He campaigned almost exclusively there, because willing Florida would catapult him into a delegate lead should he win there.
And at this stage in the 2008 promaries, he was on around 30%, with Mitt Romney and John McCain both registering 10% in Florida.
In every poll before Iowa, Guiliani was leading - usually with significant double digit leads.
Then Guiliani flopped in Iowa and then New Hampshire. And that was it. The mantle of leadership in Florida passed to Romney and McCain.
You know who won Iowa in 2008 ?
Mick Huckabee
True that.
And actually there are a remarkable number of similarities between Huckabee and Buttigieg.
1. They're both pretty religious. 2. They both have funny names.
There are obviously loads more, but I don't have time to share them right now.
American politics is full of silly names
What on earth is Klobuchar when it’s at home?
A small green mineral, known for its soothing properties when liquidised, often used by masseurs, occasionally used as an anointing oil due to its low-stain properties. Usage dates from antiquity in sub-Siberian Russia, but is little-used these days due to cheaper artificial substitutes.
Or I might just have made that up.
I don't want to hear your explanation of what "Buttigieg" is!
So the plan is that either Boris goes to the country in triumph, having delivered a Brexit deal (albeit a rotten one), or he goes to the country on a 'rid me of these troublesome remainiacs who can't agree anything, and then I'll deliver'.
Not a bad plan. Puts Labour in a very tricky position.
Comments
They may as well gain some momentum and 'positive' press coverage.
Otherwise Labour wait until a GE is forced on them which is an incredibly weak starting point.
Mick Huckabee
Perhaps that rumour over the French ambassador visiting no 10 was in relation to a possible GE.
And actually there are a remarkable number of similarities between Huckabee and Buttigieg.
1. They're both pretty religious.
2. They both have funny names.
There are obviously loads more, but I don't have time to share them right now.
Grieve and Verhofstadt, Johnson and Macron, Daniel K and the Polish Gov't telling him to sod off.
I think it makes sense . The EU is just reacting to the UK so it’s not like they’re interfering.
They can’t be blamed for no deal , it’s upto MPs . Either ratify or election its their choice.
We may be about to find out
They need this resolved . And those options are fair IMO .
For this to work, Biden needs to come third (or worse) in Iowa and New Hampshire.
If Biden beats Buttigieg in Iowa, it's all over for Buttigieg, and the nomination will be a battle between Warren and Biden.
If it's Warren-Buttigieg-Biden, then it's still probably going to be a Warren-Biden fight, because Biden should win South Carolina.
But if it's Buttigieg-Warren-Biden (or even Buttigieg-Warren-Sanders), then I think Biden is going to find it much harder. There is a huge amount of evidence that in Primary elections, early results influence later ones. And there are also a lot of moderate supporters of Booker, O'Rourke, Kloubachar and others who will need to find new homes.
So, to become nominee, Buttigieg has to win Iowa. I think it's probably a 40% shot for him. And he then has to beat Warren to the nomination, which is probably a 33% shot.
In other words, he should be around 8-1. If he keeps moving up in the Iowa and national polls, then those numbers will have to be tweaked.
Honestly unlikely nowadays, as much as I would like to see it
It’s probably not even true.
The other 5% is labour being able to block it
The key though is the EU have to agree the extension tomorrow which pulls the rug from under Corbyn .
This would indicate working in cahoots with the EU and they can now say (as suggested below) 14 days technical unless the election is held as per PM announcement, then 31st Jan.
They are not then making any demands, but reacting to the situation here.
To be honest there’s a good case for laying December now but I’m not yet until I get a better sense of the numbers for it over the weekend.
Not long till we hear that... maybe?
This is the very last chance to stop Brexit , however unlikely .
A referendum needs a government to legislate for it , even if a second vote got on the WA who would legislate for that .
What on earth is Klobuchar when it’s at home?
And of course that would completly snooker labour
If Cummings is behind all this he is a genius but of course only if Boris wins
That does make the Queen's Speech look very silly. She cannot be happy about being dragged to Parliament to give a speech that has no meaning
I already know the answer because I happen to know that you are a very competent poker player IRL.
So quit with the childish language.
Labour MPs would be mad to go for it – better waiting until after Christmas in the hope that something comes up.
We’ve ran of track. This is it.
Or I might just have made that up.
EDIT: Oh so he wants to pass the deal and then have an election. Not sure about that.
https://twitter.com/paulbranditv/status/1187398348732555266?s=21
https://twitter.com/paulbranditv/status/1187398350158647300?s=21
He announces December 12th
Dec 2019 +£229
2020 +£578
2021 +£838
2022 +£578
I think Alistair's book is much better than mine.
Getting BoZo to do anything constructive takes a firm hand. He has no leadership skills and only operates by puppetry. Far better that Parliament is the puppeteer than Cummings.
And here are the estimated seat totals....."
Gallowgate is right in this respect, we have run out of track.
I dont want them to do this, I think its cowardly of the entire 2017 parliament to not make a decision on Brexit before going to another GE. But now either you vote Tory if you still want to Brexit (sorry BXP, but its true) or you vote for anyone else if you dont, and pray their voters coordinate even if the parties dont.
He didnt mean it, but Letwin has probably killed off Brexit, as with the stakes so high I think the voters will coordinate well, and Farage is such an ego maniac he'll sink Boris with a few % here and there costing seats.
Boy, that's cutting it close.
Trying to count 25 working days, Thur 7th Nov?
Dear me.
Not a bad plan. Puts Labour in a very tricky position.