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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden drops to FOURTH in Iowa in by far his worst poll of his

SystemSystem Posts: 12,171
edited October 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden drops to FOURTH in Iowa in by far his worst poll of his entire campaign

Biden drops to FOURTH in new Iowa poll. Iowa State University/Civiqs survey hasWarren 28%Buttigieg 20%Sanders 18%Biden 12%

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,355
    Erst!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    deuxieme
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    Did we not see polling on the previous thread showing Warren dropping back with the effect that Biden was out front again (albeit not steaming ahead)? Think it might have been from Robert.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,570
    edited October 2019
    الثالث

    Damn.

    رابع
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    https://twitter.com/GermanyintheEU/status/1187354983332831232
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    Domestically about an hour and a half before the Queens Speech is voted down. Utterly bizarrely this does not qualify under the FTPA as a VoNC.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Haven't we seen this in previous years with Iowa polling all over the shop?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    DavidL said:

    Domestically about an hour and a half before the Queens Speech is voted down. Utterly bizarrely this does not qualify under the FTPA as a VoNC.

    The FTPA is wicked. Whose smart idea was that anyway? :smiley:
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    Domestically about an hour and a half before the Queens Speech is voted down. Utterly bizarrely this does not qualify under the FTPA as a VoNC.

    The FTPA is wicked. Whose smart idea was that anyway? :smiley:
    It made some sense under the Coalition but it should have had a sunset clause. Now a government is left in office but not in power and can apparently do nothing about it.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Buttigieg should be Warren's VP and heir apparent for 2028.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    DavidL said:

    Domestically about an hour and a half before the Queens Speech is voted down. Utterly bizarrely this does not qualify under the FTPA as a VoNC.

    Kinda fun that in the current situation nobody really cares. Normally this'd be the political news of the year.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,003
    Wankery update.

    https://twitter.com/oflynnsocial/status/1187326059487924229?s=20

    Though at least it inspired this response.

    https://twitter.com/elizabethceast/status/1187360668430848000?s=20
    (yeah, yeah, I know the tiny TA-er isn't from Yorkshire)
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    DavidL said:

    Did we not see polling on the previous thread showing Warren dropping back with the effect that Biden was out front again (albeit not steaming ahead)? Think it might have been from Robert.

    If these polls taken together do indicate anything more than sampling errors, then what? President Mayor Pete?

    If this is the start of a pattern showing voter doubts about the older candidates, then it might be worth looking down the list. Has Kamala Harris been oversold?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    Gabs2 said:

    Buttigieg should be Warren's VP and heir apparent for 2028.

    Yeah, but that is far too rational.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,003
    On topic.

    BUT WHERE'S HILARY IN THIS POLL?!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    Andrew said:

    DavidL said:

    Domestically about an hour and a half before the Queens Speech is voted down. Utterly bizarrely this does not qualify under the FTPA as a VoNC.

    Kinda fun that in the current situation nobody really cares. Normally this'd be the political news of the year.
    Pretty much everything this Parliament does is pointless and can kicking. Its time to get rid.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Sorry, repost from the back end of the last thread...



    If the government continues with debating the WAB is there any point at which an amendment could be made where it would be too late for them to withdraw the bill?

    I looked up the definition of Committee Stage...

    𝘊𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘪𝘵𝘵𝘦𝘦 𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘨𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘸𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘢 𝘉𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘪𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘦𝘥 𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘦-𝘣𝘺-𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘯𝘦𝘹𝘵 𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘨𝘦 𝘢𝘧𝘵𝘦𝘳 𝘢 𝘉𝘪𝘭𝘭'𝘴 𝘴𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘥 𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨. 𝘐𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘢𝘯 𝘰𝘱𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘶𝘯𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘤𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦𝘴 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘦 𝘮𝘢𝘥𝘦 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘸𝘰𝘳𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘰𝘳 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘯𝘦𝘸 𝘤𝘭𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘦 𝘢𝘥𝘥𝘦𝘥.

    𝘐𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘊𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘰𝘯𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘵𝘢𝘴𝘬 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘥𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘣𝘺 𝘢 𝘴𝘮𝘢𝘭𝘭 𝘯𝘶𝘮𝘣𝘦𝘳 𝘰𝘧 𝘔𝘗𝘴 𝘪𝘯 𝘢 𝘗𝘶𝘣𝘭𝘪𝘤 𝘉𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘊𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘪𝘵𝘵𝘦𝘦. 𝘖𝘤𝘤𝘢𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘪𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘥𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘊𝘩𝘢𝘮𝘣𝘦𝘳 𝘣𝘺 𝘢 𝘊𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘪𝘵𝘵𝘦𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘸𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘦 𝘏𝘰𝘶𝘴𝘦, 𝘢𝘴 𝘪𝘴 𝘶𝘴𝘶𝘢𝘭 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘓𝘰𝘳𝘥𝘴.

    Am I right in thinking this is the final stage and, in the case of the WAB, would be debated in parliament as a whole?

    Would the Committee Stage be the point at which amendments would be tabled and where the bill could still be withdrawn?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Wankery update.

    https://twitter.com/oflynnsocial/status/1187326059487924229?s=20

    Though at least it inspired this response.

    https://twitter.com/elizabethceast/status/1187360668430848000?s=20
    (yeah, yeah, I know the tiny TA-er isn't from Yorkshire)

    There is implausible and completely and utterly implausible - I wonder which one of those this is.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    Come on Kamala!

    PT - did we conclude?

    Who wrote the letter?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Wankery update.

    https://twitter.com/oflynnsocial/status/1187326059487924229?s=20

    Though at least it inspired this response.

    https://twitter.com/elizabethceast/status/1187360668430848000?s=20
    (yeah, yeah, I know the tiny TA-er isn't from Yorkshire)

    Is that the sound of TSE, sobbing uncontrollably?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Divvie, lots of tweets, some serious, some silly, like that, though.

    Good afternoon, everyone.
  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729
    fpt..
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    TrèsDifficile said:

    Scott_P said:

    Banterman said:

    People forget Boris is fluent in French

    Does his bullshit sound any better in French?
    Much. Conneries (literally c*ntery!)
    Too strong, no?
    "L’implosion politique que constitue le Brexit est l’héritage de mensonges britanniques passés et récents. C’est aussi le fruit des méfaits impériaux. De la part de Boris Johnson, faire porter le chapeau à l’Irlande et l’Union européenne n’est qu’une connerie supplémentaire de la perfide Albion."
    https://www.investigaction.net/fr/le-brexit-est-une-implosion-made-in-britain-meme-si-johnson-accuse-tous-les-autres/

    roughly.."The political implosion of Brexit is the legacy of past and recent British lies. It is also the result of imperial misdeeds. For Boris Johnson, to put the hat on (blame?) Ireland and the European Union is just more bullshit from perfidious Albion."
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    edited October 2019
    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    Domestically about an hour and a half before the Queens Speech is voted down. Utterly bizarrely this does not qualify under the FTPA as a VoNC.

    The FTPA is wicked. Whose smart idea was that anyway? :smiley:
    It made some sense under the Coalition but it should have had a sunset clause. Now a government is left in office but not in power and can apparently do nothing about it.
    The act itself is fine - I don't think anyone expected for things to be as insane as they currently are though. What needs to happen is for the act to reflect the issues we've discovered so for such as a failed Queen Speech is updated to be a VoNC..
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    DavidL said:

    Did we not see polling on the previous thread showing Warren dropping back with the effect that Biden was out front again (albeit not steaming ahead)? Think it might have been from Robert.

    If these polls taken together do indicate anything more than sampling errors, then what? President Mayor Pete?

    If this is the start of a pattern showing voter doubts about the older candidates, then it might be worth looking down the list. Has Kamala Harris been oversold?
    There's only room in the field for one old candidate.

    Who says so?


    Hillary......
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    kinabalu said:

    Come on Kamala!

    PT - did we conclude?

    Who wrote the letter?

    BAN-HAMMER TIME!
  • Henry_CHenry_C Posts: 73
    edited October 2019
    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    Domestically about an hour and a half before the Queens Speech is voted down. Utterly bizarrely this does not qualify under the FTPA as a VoNC.

    The FTPA is wicked. Whose smart idea was that anyway? :smiley:
    It made some sense under the Coalition but it should have had a sunset clause. Now a government is left in office but not in power and can apparently do nothing about it.
    It does have a sunset clause: arrangements for a review must be made between 1 June and 30 November next year :) (Perhaps they thought there'd be a 10-year coalition!)
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    Domestically about an hour and a half before the Queens Speech is voted down. Utterly bizarrely this does not qualify under the FTPA as a VoNC.

    The FTPA is wicked. Whose smart idea was that anyway? :smiley:
    It made some sense under the Coalition but it should have had a sunset clause. Now a government is left in office but not in power and can apparently do nothing about it.
    The act itself is fine - I don't think anyone expected for things to be as insane as they currently are though. What needs to happen is for the act to reflect the issues we've discovered so for such as a failed Queen Speech is updated to be a VoNC..
    If the Queen's Speech is defeated, a VNOC would likely follow.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Erst!

    *erster
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,719
    https://twitter.com/mediaguido/status/1187379268852031489?s=21
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    justin124 said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    Domestically about an hour and a half before the Queens Speech is voted down. Utterly bizarrely this does not qualify under the FTPA as a VoNC.

    The FTPA is wicked. Whose smart idea was that anyway? :smiley:
    It made some sense under the Coalition but it should have had a sunset clause. Now a government is left in office but not in power and can apparently do nothing about it.
    The act itself is fine - I don't think anyone expected for things to be as insane as they currently are though. What needs to happen is for the act to reflect the issues we've discovered so for such as a failed Queen Speech is updated to be a VoNC..
    If the Queen's Speech is defeated, a VNOC would likely follow.
    Makes strategic sense for the opposition to defeat the govt in a VONC rather than just agreeing to an election.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,272
    TrèsDifficile said:

    fpt..

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    TrèsDifficile said:

    Scott_P said:

    Banterman said:

    People forget Boris is fluent in French

    Does his bullshit sound any better in French?
    Much. Conneries (literally c*ntery!)
    Too strong, no?
    "L’implosion politique que constitue le Brexit est l’héritage de mensonges britanniques passés et récents. C’est aussi le fruit des méfaits impériaux. De la part de Boris Johnson, faire porter le chapeau à l’Irlande et l’Union européenne n’est qu’une connerie supplémentaire de la perfide Albion."
    https://www.investigaction.net/fr/le-brexit-est-une-implosion-made-in-britain-meme-si-johnson-accuse-tous-les-autres/

    roughly.."The political implosion of Brexit is the legacy of past and recent British lies. It is also the result of imperial misdeeds. For Boris Johnson, to put the hat on (blame?) Ireland and the European Union is just more bullshit from perfidious Albion."
    You could almost say ... très facile.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    justin124 said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    Domestically about an hour and a half before the Queens Speech is voted down. Utterly bizarrely this does not qualify under the FTPA as a VoNC.

    The FTPA is wicked. Whose smart idea was that anyway? :smiley:
    It made some sense under the Coalition but it should have had a sunset clause. Now a government is left in office but not in power and can apparently do nothing about it.
    The act itself is fine - I don't think anyone expected for things to be as insane as they currently are though. What needs to happen is for the act to reflect the issues we've discovered so for such as a failed Queen Speech is updated to be a VoNC..
    If the Queen's Speech is defeated, a VNOC would likely follow.
    Let's hope so
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Why do people keep harping on about individual polls? Individual polls have wider MoE and house effects than just going with an aggregate, such as that done by Real Clear Politcs: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-6731.html
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    DavidL said:

    Did we not see polling on the previous thread showing Warren dropping back with the effect that Biden was out front again (albeit not steaming ahead)? Think it might have been from Robert.

    I'd advise backing all 4 horses
  • kingbongokingbongo Posts: 393
    Noo said:

    https://twitter.com/GermanyintheEU/status/1187354983332831232

    I see your German and raise you a skillsmisseaftaleratificeringsproces - Danish for the win
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    The_Taxman said:

    Makes strategic sense for the opposition to defeat the govt in a VONC rather than just agreeing to an election.

    Wonder if Cummings will instruct his MPs to abstain :-)

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/mediaguido/status/1187379268852031489?s=21

    OH!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,122
    Pulpstar said:

    justin124 said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    Domestically about an hour and a half before the Queens Speech is voted down. Utterly bizarrely this does not qualify under the FTPA as a VoNC.

    The FTPA is wicked. Whose smart idea was that anyway? :smiley:
    It made some sense under the Coalition but it should have had a sunset clause. Now a government is left in office but not in power and can apparently do nothing about it.
    The act itself is fine - I don't think anyone expected for things to be as insane as they currently are though. What needs to happen is for the act to reflect the issues we've discovered so for such as a failed Queen Speech is updated to be a VoNC..
    If the Queen's Speech is defeated, a VNOC would likely follow.
    Let's hope so
    It is not a vonc apparently .

    Not sure why but a vonc coming from anywhere just brings us to an election
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    DavidL said:

    Did we not see polling on the previous thread showing Warren dropping back with the effect that Biden was out front again (albeit not steaming ahead)? Think it might have been from Robert.

    Nationally as opposed to this Iowa poll.

    My Girl The Big Shiz Liz has this locked up.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,122
    GIN1138 said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/mediaguido/status/1187379268852031489?s=21

    OH!
    That will get labour going mad on twitter
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    https://twitter.com/MediaGuido/status/1187379268852031489?s=20

    Something's afoot?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    GIN1138 said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/mediaguido/status/1187379268852031489?s=21

    OH!
    More stories from No 10 sources? :)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,122
    Benpointer said:

    https://twitter.com/MediaGuido/status/1187379268852031489?s=20

    Something's afoot?

    There must be a pun in that but I am no good with them !!!!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/mediaguido/status/1187379268852031489?s=21

    OH!
    More stories from No 10 sources? :)
    Cummings has been given the boot? :lol:
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Did we not see polling on the previous thread showing Warren dropping back with the effect that Biden was out front again (albeit not steaming ahead)? Think it might have been from Robert.

    I'd advise backing all 4 horses
    You only need to back 1 horse and it has a large W on it. Which stands for both Warren and Winner.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Benpointer said:

    https://twitter.com/MediaGuido/status/1187379268852031489?s=20

    Something's afoot?

    Senior sauces say.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    https://twitter.com/MediaGuido/status/1187379268852031489?s=20

    Something's afoot?

    There must be a pun in that but I am no good with them !!!!
    Something's afoot... knowing Boris it'll be a bullet from his own gun. :wink:
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,122
    Alistair said:

    Benpointer said:

    https://twitter.com/MediaGuido/status/1187379268852031489?s=20

    Something's afoot?

    Senior sauces say.
    I wish I was good at puns but I do enjoy reading them
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Pulpstar said:

    justin124 said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    Domestically about an hour and a half before the Queens Speech is voted down. Utterly bizarrely this does not qualify under the FTPA as a VoNC.

    The FTPA is wicked. Whose smart idea was that anyway? :smiley:
    It made some sense under the Coalition but it should have had a sunset clause. Now a government is left in office but not in power and can apparently do nothing about it.
    The act itself is fine - I don't think anyone expected for things to be as insane as they currently are though. What needs to happen is for the act to reflect the issues we've discovered so for such as a failed Queen Speech is updated to be a VoNC..
    If the Queen's Speech is defeated, a VNOC would likely follow.
    Let's hope so
    It is not a vonc apparently .

    Not sure why but a vonc coming from anywhere just brings us to an election
    But two weeks later at least. May be too late for pre-Christmas election.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Pulpstar said:

    justin124 said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    Domestically about an hour and a half before the Queens Speech is voted down. Utterly bizarrely this does not qualify under the FTPA as a VoNC.

    The FTPA is wicked. Whose smart idea was that anyway? :smiley:
    It made some sense under the Coalition but it should have had a sunset clause. Now a government is left in office but not in power and can apparently do nothing about it.
    The act itself is fine - I don't think anyone expected for things to be as insane as they currently are though. What needs to happen is for the act to reflect the issues we've discovered so for such as a failed Queen Speech is updated to be a VoNC..
    If the Queen's Speech is defeated, a VNOC would likely follow.
    Let's hope so
    It is not a vonc apparently .

    Not sure why but a vonc coming from anywhere just brings us to an election
    A VoNC on Monday gives us an election date of December 16th at the earliest.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    Well, one thing's for sure, Boris can't simply tell Laura K he's calling an election.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    You can give or take your Biden headline, WHAT ABOUT THE LETTER???
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Wankery update.

    https://twitter.com/oflynnsocial/status/1187326059487924229?s=20

    Though at least it inspired this response.

    https://twitter.com/elizabethceast/status/1187360668430848000?s=20
    (yeah, yeah, I know the tiny TA-er isn't from Yorkshire)

    christ.

    when this is all over, we'll see it as a death of UK satire.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Alistair said:

    Benpointer said:

    https://twitter.com/MediaGuido/status/1187379268852031489?s=20

    Something's afoot?

    Senior sauces say.
    I wish I was good at puns but I do enjoy reading them
    I think @ydoethur is the PB pun master (although don't tell TSE, he'll be gutted)
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    "Yeah, and one more thing ... Trump!"

    cue mild chuckling.

    :|
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,122
    justin124 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Pulpstar said:

    justin124 said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    Domestically about an hour and a half before the Queens Speech is voted down. Utterly bizarrely this does not qualify under the FTPA as a VoNC.

    The FTPA is wicked. Whose smart idea was that anyway? :smiley:
    It made some sense under the Coalition but it should have had a sunset clause. Now a government is left in office but not in power and can apparently do nothing about it.
    The act itself is fine - I don't think anyone expected for things to be as insane as they currently are though. What needs to happen is for the act to reflect the issues we've discovered so for such as a failed Queen Speech is updated to be a VoNC..
    If the Queen's Speech is defeated, a VNOC would likely follow.
    Let's hope so
    It is not a vonc apparently .

    Not sure why but a vonc coming from anywhere just brings us to an election
    But two weeks later at least. May be too late for pre-Christmas election.
    Hang on in there Justin. Your fear of a GE is shared by the frit labour party
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    DavidL said:

    Domestically about an hour and a half before the Queens Speech is voted down. Utterly bizarrely this does not qualify under the FTPA as a VoNC.

    The vote on that will be interesting.

    288 Tories definite Aye - 2 Tellers - 1 speaker = 285
    245 Labour + 35 SNP + 19 Lib Dem + 4 Plaid + 1 Green No. - 2 tellers - 2 speakers = 300
    7 Shinner abstentions.

    My only slight doubt on the above and it's a 95% he will go with the Labour whip is John Mann possibly abstaining. But unlikely.

    35 Independents, 10 DUP I'm not sure about exactly.

    Does Gauke etc have the Tory whip back yet ? How will Hammond and Sandbach and Grieve vote ?
    Woodcock, Austin, Lewis ?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,003
    Benpointer said:

    https://twitter.com/MediaGuido/status/1187379268852031489?s=20

    Something's afoot?

    Yeah, Dom's been spreading that rumour about BJ..
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,122
    eek said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Pulpstar said:

    justin124 said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    Domestically about an hour and a half before the Queens Speech is voted down. Utterly bizarrely this does not qualify under the FTPA as a VoNC.

    The FTPA is wicked. Whose smart idea was that anyway? :smiley:
    It made some sense under the Coalition but it should have had a sunset clause. Now a government is left in office but not in power and can apparently do nothing about it.
    The act itself is fine - I don't think anyone expected for things to be as insane as they currently are though. What needs to happen is for the act to reflect the issues we've discovered so for such as a failed Queen Speech is updated to be a VoNC..
    If the Queen's Speech is defeated, a VNOC would likely follow.
    Let's hope so
    It is not a vonc apparently .

    Not sure why but a vonc coming from anywhere just brings us to an election
    A VoNC on Monday gives us an election date of December 16th at the earliest.
    Interesting.

    I think we will have something shortly v Laura Kunesberg interview with Boris
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    GIN1138 said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/mediaguido/status/1187379268852031489?s=21

    OH!
    That will get labour going mad on twitter
    Not to mention Dr Sarah Wollaston.

    "So he can find time for HER but not for ME.... Harrumph!!"
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    https://order-order.com/2019/10/24/lib-dems-new-shameless-leaflet-claims/

    I know it is Guido, but the bit about Chukka is as audacious as any economically truthful quote could ever be.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    Theuniondivvie said:


    https://twitter.com/oflynnsocial/status/1187326059487924229?s=20

    r/That happened


  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    justin124 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Pulpstar said:

    justin124 said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    Domestically about an hour and a half before the Queens Speech is voted down. Utterly bizarrely this does not qualify under the FTPA as a VoNC.

    The FTPA is wicked. Whose smart idea was that anyway? :smiley:
    It made some sense under the Coalition but it should have had a sunset clause. Now a government is left in office but not in power and can apparently do nothing about it.
    The act itself is fine - I don't think anyone expected for things to be as insane as they currently are though. What needs to happen is for the act to reflect the issues we've discovered so for such as a failed Queen Speech is updated to be a VoNC..
    If the Queen's Speech is defeated, a VNOC would likely follow.
    Let's hope so
    It is not a vonc apparently .

    Not sure why but a vonc coming from anywhere just brings us to an election
    But two weeks later at least. May be too late for pre-Christmas election.
    Hang on in there Justin. Your fear of a GE is shared by the frit labour party
    I will abstain anyway whenever an election is held- though I do get satisfaction from seeing someone as malign as Johnson thwarted by his opponents.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878
    BannedInParis said:

    You can give or take your Biden headline, WHAT ABOUT THE LETTER???

    What letter?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    GIVE ME AN ELECTION
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    Dadge said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Erst!

    *erster
    Erstest. With the Merstest.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Benpointer said:

    Well, one thing's for sure, Boris can't simply tell Laura K he's calling an election.

    Maybe he’s resigning?
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878
    edited October 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Domestically about an hour and a half before the Queens Speech is voted down. Utterly bizarrely this does not qualify under the FTPA as a VoNC.

    The vote on that will be interesting.

    288 Tories definite Aye - 2 Tellers - 1 speaker = 285
    245 Labour + 35 SNP + 19 Lib Dem + 4 Plaid + 1 Green No. - 2 tellers - 2 speakers = 300
    7 Shinner abstentions.

    My only slight doubt on the above and it's a 95% he will go with the Labour whip is John Mann possibly abstaining. But unlikely.

    35 Independents, 10 DUP I'm not sure about exactly.

    Does Gauke etc have the Tory whip back yet ? How will Hammond and Sandbach and Grieve vote ?
    Woodcock, Austin, Lewis ?
    Elphicke? Does he have the whip back yet? Isn't he guaranteed Conservative even though nominally an independent.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    148grss said:

    Why do people keep harping on about individual polls? Individual polls have wider MoE and house effects than just going with an aggregate, such as that done by Real Clear Politcs: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-6731.html

    Because in this case it fits with an overall trend of Biden seen in 4 polls of Biden slipping back & the Mayor moving forward
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Gallowgate said:

    Benpointer said:

    Well, one thing's for sure, Boris can't simply tell Laura K he's calling an election.

    Maybe he’s resigning?
    That wouldn't be an interview with a single journalist.

    Set piece lectern / press room or Parliament.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    edited October 2019
    kingbongo said:

    Noo said:

    https://twitter.com/GermanyintheEU/status/1187354983332831232

    I see your German and raise you a skillsmisseaftaleratificeringsproces - Danish for the win
    You could have done better than that just by making it bestemt: skillsmisseaftaleratificeringsprocessen
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    What is happening and why are you all excited?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    philiph said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Benpointer said:

    Well, one thing's for sure, Boris can't simply tell Laura K he's calling an election.

    Maybe he’s resigning?
    That wouldn't be an interview with a single journalist.

    Set piece lectern / press room or Parliament.
    Depends when the interview is embargoed until.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Perhaps the French Ambassador told him they were vetoing. :)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    viewcode said:

    What is happening and why are you all excited?

    TSE just ate a slice of pineapple pizza.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    eek said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Pulpstar said:

    justin124 said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    Domestically about an hour and a half before the Queens Speech is voted down. Utterly bizarrely this does not qualify under the FTPA as a VoNC.

    The FTPA is wicked. Whose smart idea was that anyway? :smiley:
    It made some sense under the Coalition but it should have had a sunset clause. Now a government is left in office but not in power and can apparently do nothing about it.
    The act itself is fine - I don't think anyone expected for things to be as insane as they currently are though. What needs to happen is for the act to reflect the issues we've discovered so for such as a failed Queen Speech is updated to be a VoNC..
    If the Queen's Speech is defeated, a VNOC would likely follow.
    Let's hope so
    It is not a vonc apparently .

    Not sure why but a vonc coming from anywhere just brings us to an election
    A VoNC on Monday gives us an election date of December 16th at the earliest.
    Interesting.

    I think we will have something shortly v Laura Kunesberg interview with Boris
    Maybe Corbyn has run out of excuses to say no to an election?

    "We've agreed the wording of a one-line Bill. The election will be held next Wednesday...."
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    edited October 2019
    TheValiant said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Domestically about an hour and a half before the Queens Speech is voted down. Utterly bizarrely this does not qualify under the FTPA as a VoNC.

    The vote on that will be interesting.

    288 Tories definite Aye - 2 Tellers - 1 speaker = 285
    245 Labour + 35 SNP + 19 Lib Dem + 4 Plaid + 1 Green No. - 2 tellers - 2 speakers = 300
    7 Shinner abstentions.

    My only slight doubt on the above and it's a 95% he will go with the Labour whip is John Mann possibly abstaining. But unlikely.

    35 Independents, 10 DUP I'm not sure about exactly.

    Does Gauke etc have the Tory whip back yet ? How will Hammond and Sandbach and Grieve vote ?
    Woodcock, Austin, Lewis ?
    Elphicke? Does he have the whip back yet? Isn't he guaranteed Conservative even though nominally an independent.
    Yes, there's Hopkins on the Ind/Labour side who'll be 100% against too.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited October 2019
    philiph said:

    https://order-order.com/2019/10/24/lib-dems-new-shameless-leaflet-claims/

    I know it is Guido, but the bit about Chukka is as audacious as any economically truthful quote could ever be.

    Chuka has also been bombarding innocent voters in Cities of London and Westminster with leaflets claiming it's between him and the Tories. This will be a surprise to the local Labour Party, which got 14,857 votes in 2017 compared with the LibDems' 4,270.

    Still, it's heartwarming to see that's he's fitting so well into his new party.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    What time is the QS vote?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    If the EU want to get the deal through this is what they should do .

    And this depends on Johnson doing the following.

    He puts down a vote for Monday .

    The EU then say the following tomorrow .

    A one month extension to ratify but there will only be the extra two months if an election is called .

    This forces MPs to either vote for the deal or the opposition to agree to an election on Monday.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    edited October 2019
    philiph said:

    https://order-order.com/2019/10/24/lib-dems-new-shameless-leaflet-claims/

    I know it is Guido, but the bit about Chukka is as audacious as any economically truthful quote could ever be.

    I don’t think Guido is in any position to lecture anyone on being economical with the truth.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    nico67 said:

    If the EU want to get the deal through this is what they should do .

    And this depends on Johnson doing the following.

    He puts down a vote for Monday .

    The EU then say the following tomorrow .

    A one month extension to ratify but there will only be the extra two months if an election is called .

    This forces MPs to either vote for the deal or the opposition to agree to an election on Monday.

    And if Labour tables a VNOC - which passes?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited October 2019
    Boles will abstain. Greening? Grieve? Bebb?

    If DUP for and above abstain, 287 + 10 + 19 = 316 - 319 (minus 2 tellers each).

    Naturally, I'm hoping for a tie so we have more Bercow drama. It seems a distinct possibility.
  • crandlescrandles Posts: 91
    Re Queens Speech votes: Labour rebels might not want to annoy whips excessively. To persuade EU we need extension for general election, show that Boris hasn't got a majority, so this encourages abstentions by anti no deal tory rebels. So QS could be voted down?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,236
    DavidL said:

    Did we not see polling on the previous thread showing Warren dropping back with the effect that Biden was out front again (albeit not steaming ahead)? Think it might have been from Robert.

    That was national polling, where Biden was still on 27-28%, but that Warren had dropped from parity to the low 20s.

    Iowa is going to be crucial, because early results affect later ones.

    In 2008, Guiliani's approach was the "Florida Firewall". He campaigned almost exclusively there, because willing Florida would catapult him into a delegate lead should he win there.

    And at this stage in the 2008 promaries, he was on around 30%, with Mitt Romney and John McCain both registering 10% in Florida.

    In every poll before Iowa, Guiliani was leading - usually with significant double digit leads.

    Then Guiliani flopped in Iowa and then New Hampshire. And that was it. The mantle of leadership in Florida passed to Romney and McCain.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    philiph said:

    https://order-order.com/2019/10/24/lib-dems-new-shameless-leaflet-claims/

    I know it is Guido, but the bit about Chukka is as audacious as any economically truthful quote could ever be.

    Chuka has also been bombarding innocent voters in Cities of London and Westminster with leaflets claiming it's between him and the Tories. This will be a surprise to the Labour Party, which got 14,857 votes in 2017 compared with the LibDems' 4,270.

    Still, it's heartwarming to see that's he's fitting so well into his new party.
    I've backed the Tories in the City - my reasoning is as follows

    i) The reliable Labour bits will stick (To a larger extent) with Labour.
    ii) The rich bits care more about money than the EU.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Wankery update.

    https://twitter.com/oflynnsocial/status/1187326059487924229?s=20

    Though at least it inspired this response.

    https://twitter.com/elizabethceast/status/1187360668430848000?s=20
    (yeah, yeah, I know the tiny TA-er isn't from Yorkshire)

    Does anyone seriously believe a 4 year old did that?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,236
    Gabs2 said:

    Buttigieg should be Warren's VP and heir apparent for 2028.

    Buttigieg brings nothing to Warren's ticket, so I can't see him taking that role (were it offered).
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,122
    justin124 said:

    nico67 said:

    If the EU want to get the deal through this is what they should do .

    And this depends on Johnson doing the following.

    He puts down a vote for Monday .

    The EU then say the following tomorrow .

    A one month extension to ratify but there will only be the extra two months if an election is called .

    This forces MPs to either vote for the deal or the opposition to agree to an election on Monday.

    And if Labour tables a VNOC - which passes?
    You may find in the next couple of hours that Boris calls for an election under the FTPA so irrelevant
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Pulpstar said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    philiph said:

    https://order-order.com/2019/10/24/lib-dems-new-shameless-leaflet-claims/

    I know it is Guido, but the bit about Chukka is as audacious as any economically truthful quote could ever be.

    Chuka has also been bombarding innocent voters in Cities of London and Westminster with leaflets claiming it's between him and the Tories. This will be a surprise to the Labour Party, which got 14,857 votes in 2017 compared with the LibDems' 4,270.

    Still, it's heartwarming to see that's he's fitting so well into his new party.
    I've backed the Tories in the City - my reasoning is as follows

    i) The reliable Labour bits will stick (To a larger extent) with Labour.
    ii) The rich bits care more about money than the EU.
    I think it will depend on the candidate.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    crandles said:

    Re Queens Speech votes: Labour rebels might not want to annoy whips excessively. To persuade EU we need extension for general election, show that Boris hasn't got a majority, so this encourages abstentions by anti no deal tory rebels. So QS could be voted down?

    Labour MPs would be expected to follow the Whip on a Queen's Speech vote.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    justin124 said:

    nico67 said:

    If the EU want to get the deal through this is what they should do .

    And this depends on Johnson doing the following.

    He puts down a vote for Monday .

    The EU then say the following tomorrow .

    A one month extension to ratify but there will only be the extra two months if an election is called .

    This forces MPs to either vote for the deal or the opposition to agree to an election on Monday.

    And if Labour tables a VNOC - which passes?
    You may find in the next couple of hours that Boris calls for an election under the FTPA so irrelevant
    Do you think enough Labour MPs will vote for one?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,122
    Gallowgate said:

    philiph said:

    https://order-order.com/2019/10/24/lib-dems-new-shameless-leaflet-claims/

    I know it is Guido, but the bit about Chukka is as audacious as any economically truthful quote could ever be.

    Guido is in no position to lecture anyone on being economical with the truth.
    Are you just shooting the messenger and not seeing the message?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Would have been newsworthy once:

    https://twitter.com/PinkNews/status/1187129571163938817?s=20
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    justin124 said:

    nico67 said:

    If the EU want to get the deal through this is what they should do .

    And this depends on Johnson doing the following.

    He puts down a vote for Monday .

    The EU then say the following tomorrow .

    A one month extension to ratify but there will only be the extra two months if an election is called .

    This forces MPs to either vote for the deal or the opposition to agree to an election on Monday.

    And if Labour tables a VNOC - which passes?
    You may find in the next couple of hours that Boris calls for an election under the FTPA so irrelevant
    Not necessarily - under Commons rules a VNOC might expect priority -ie MPs would vote on that before considering any Election motion from Johnson.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,236
    148grss said:

    Why do people keep harping on about individual polls? Individual polls have wider MoE and house effects than just going with an aggregate, such as that done by Real Clear Politcs: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-6731.html

    That shows pretty much the same picture, though. Buttigieg has roughly doubled his Iowa polling to a little above 15%, while Biden is in the high teens and Warren in the low 20s.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    philiph said:

    https://order-order.com/2019/10/24/lib-dems-new-shameless-leaflet-claims/

    I know it is Guido, but the bit about Chukka is as audacious as any economically truthful quote could ever be.

    Guido is in no position to lecture anyone on being economical with the truth.
    Are you just shooting the messenger and not seeing the message?
    I see no problem with the message to be honest. Who cares?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,122
    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    justin124 said:

    nico67 said:

    If the EU want to get the deal through this is what they should do .

    And this depends on Johnson doing the following.

    He puts down a vote for Monday .

    The EU then say the following tomorrow .

    A one month extension to ratify but there will only be the extra two months if an election is called .

    This forces MPs to either vote for the deal or the opposition to agree to an election on Monday.

    And if Labour tables a VNOC - which passes?
    You may find in the next couple of hours that Boris calls for an election under the FTPA so irrelevant
    Do you think enough Labour MPs will vote for one?
    Well there are other ways
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,122
    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    philiph said:

    https://order-order.com/2019/10/24/lib-dems-new-shameless-leaflet-claims/

    I know it is Guido, but the bit about Chukka is as audacious as any economically truthful quote could ever be.

    Guido is in no position to lecture anyone on being economical with the truth.
    Are you just shooting the messenger and not seeing the message?
    I see no problem with the message to be honest. Who cares?
    I don't care but the message was fair enough
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    philiph said:

    https://order-order.com/2019/10/24/lib-dems-new-shameless-leaflet-claims/

    I know it is Guido, but the bit about Chukka is as audacious as any economically truthful quote could ever be.

    Guido is in no position to lecture anyone on being economical with the truth.
    Are you just shooting the messenger and not seeing the message?
    I see no problem with the message to be honest. Who cares?
    Hasn't a big theme on here recently about how Boris can't stop lying?
This discussion has been closed.