Let's look back to the end of October 2003, with just three months or so until the Iowa caucuses.
Howard Dean, a populist left winger from New England, with a consumer protection bent, was leading the polls with 29%. Eight points behind him was the elderly face of the establishment, House Majority Leader, Dick Gephardt on 21%.
There were then three candidates in single digits, but on 5% or more: Wesley Clark, John Kerry and John Edwards.
Six weeks later at the beginning of December, things had not changed much. Dean was 26%, Gephardt on 22%. Edwards had slipped back to 5%, while Kerry was marooned on 9%.
Then Iowa came around. Based on national polling, Dean was widely expected to win Iowa.
In reality, Dean came a distant third in Iowa, behind Edwards and Kerry.
And the contest became a fight between Edwards and Kerry - two candidates who had been twenty points off the pace before Iowa.
No sign of the Opposition parties being inclined to vote for the election motion.The Green , LDs , ChangeUK and many Labour MPs will vote against or abstain.
It is both sad and amusing to see the succession of Opposition MPs parading in front of the cameras to come up with their desperate excuses for why they don't want an election. Of course none of them will mention the real reason - that they are frightened of the verdict of the voters.
They should take a leaf out of the PB Lefties on here who have accepted that under the current leadership with its current policies the Labour Party is unelectable.
No sign of the Opposition parties being inclined to vote for the election motion.The Green , LDs , ChangeUK and many Labour MPs will vote against or abstain.
It is both sad and amusing to see the succession of Opposition MPs parading in front of the cameras to come up with their desperate excuses for why they don't want an election. Of course none of them will mention the real reason - that they are frightened of the verdict of the voters.
I they conspire to stop the GE or worse try to remove Boris I cannot imagine the fury heading their way in public opinion
Tories get furious if Tory leader doesnt get his way shocker!
No sign of the Opposition parties being inclined to vote for the election motion.The Green , LDs , ChangeUK and many Labour MPs will vote against or abstain.
It is both sad and amusing to see the succession of Opposition MPs parading in front of the cameras to come up with their desperate excuses for why they don't want an election. Of course none of them will mention the real reason - that they are frightened of the verdict of the voters.
More likely a desire to expose Johnson for what he is before voters are invited to express their views on him.
So how is that going for you Justin? Seems like every time your lot try that the polls move even further against them.
I am not a great Johnson fan but he is certainly not being bothered by the stupid little games the Opposition keep trying to play. Clearly the public have more sense than you give them credit for.
No sign of the Opposition parties being inclined to vote for the election motion.The Green , LDs , ChangeUK and many Labour MPs will vote against or abstain.
It is both sad and amusing to see the succession of Opposition MPs parading in front of the cameras to come up with their desperate excuses for why they don't want an election. Of course none of them will mention the real reason - that they are frightened of the verdict of the voters.
I they conspire to stop the GE or worse try to remove Boris I cannot imagine the fury heading their way in public opinion
You may be in for a surprise there. In terms of sunset time 12th December is likely to be the darkest evening of the year - voters are not going to be desperately keen to have an election at that time. So far , the Opposition parties have refused to be bounced by Johnson.
Clever joke by JRM in the HOC just now: "I thought we were getting a ditch joke, to which I was going to say 'Ha-ha'." I doubt many MPs or members of the press lobby understood the pun!
A ha-ha is not a ditch.
When reaching for a pun exact equivalents are hardly necessary.
No sign of the Opposition parties being inclined to vote for the election motion.The Green , LDs , ChangeUK and many Labour MPs will vote against or abstain.
It is both sad and amusing to see the succession of Opposition MPs parading in front of the cameras to come up with their desperate excuses for why they don't want an election. Of course none of them will mention the real reason - that they are frightened of the verdict of the voters.
I they conspire to stop the GE or worse try to remove Boris I cannot imagine the fury heading their way in public opinion
Tories get furious if Tory leader doesnt get his way shocker!
No sign of the Opposition parties being inclined to vote for the election motion.The Green , LDs , ChangeUK and many Labour MPs will vote against or abstain.
It is both sad and amusing to see the succession of Opposition MPs parading in front of the cameras to come up with their desperate excuses for why they don't want an election. Of course none of them will mention the real reason - that they are frightened of the verdict of the voters.
More likely a desire to expose Johnson for what he is before voters are invited to express their views on him.
I am not a great Johnson fan but he is certainly not being bothered by the stupid little games the Opposition keep trying to play.
No, he's been playing his own stupid little games.
No sign of the Opposition parties being inclined to vote for the election motion.The Green , LDs , ChangeUK and many Labour MPs will vote against or abstain.
It is both sad and amusing to see the succession of Opposition MPs parading in front of the cameras to come up with their desperate excuses for why they don't want an election. Of course none of them will mention the real reason - that they are frightened of the verdict of the voters.
They should take a leaf out of the PB Lefties on here who have accepted that under the current leadership with its current policies the Labour Party is unelectable.
In which case they should get rid of him and replace him with someone who is electable. When the only person in the country more unpopular than the PM is the Leader of the Opposition we are completely screwed.
No sign of the Opposition parties being inclined to vote for the election motion.The Green , LDs , ChangeUK and many Labour MPs will vote against or abstain.
It is both sad and amusing to see the succession of Opposition MPs parading in front of the cameras to come up with their desperate excuses for why they don't want an election. Of course none of them will mention the real reason - that they are frightened of the verdict of the voters.
I they conspire to stop the GE or worse try to remove Boris I cannot imagine the fury heading their way in public opinion
Tories get furious if Tory leader doesnt get his way shocker!
James Cleverly: "We would have fulfilled our pledge to leave the EU by October 31st if only the opposition had voted with us."
No idea if he had a straight face while saying it as it was on the wireless.
Clever joke by JRM in the HOC just now: "I thought we were getting a ditch joke, to which I was going to say 'Ha-ha'." I doubt many MPs or members of the press lobby understood the pun!
A ha-ha is not a ditch.
When reaching for a pun exact equivalents are hardly necessary.
Especially in the entrenched positions of the two sides in the current Grabenkrieg.
If any MPs are waiting on the extension request decision before the decide if to back an election, surely we're definitely getting one? If the EU is to react to events they won't rule out the date that parliament requested and which allows the PM to do what he wants - by definition it must be acceptable to both.
Clever joke by JRM in the HOC just now: "I thought we were getting a ditch joke, to which I was going to say 'Ha-ha'." I doubt many MPs or members of the press lobby understood the pun!
A ha-ha is not a ditch.
When reaching for a pun exact equivalents are hardly necessary.
It was a very good pun but probably didn't advance the Cons' man of the people positioning at all.
No sign of the Opposition parties being inclined to vote for the election motion.The Green , LDs , ChangeUK and many Labour MPs will vote against or abstain.
It is both sad and amusing to see the succession of Opposition MPs parading in front of the cameras to come up with their desperate excuses for why they don't want an election. Of course none of them will mention the real reason - that they are frightened of the verdict of the voters.
More likely a desire to expose Johnson for what he is before voters are invited to express their views on him.
I am not a great Johnson fan but he is certainly not being bothered by the stupid little games the Opposition keep trying to play.
No, he's been playing his own stupid little games.
Refusing to take responsibility through an election is the ultimate stupid little game. They are cowards the lot of them.
No sign of the Opposition parties being inclined to vote for the election motion.The Green , LDs , ChangeUK and many Labour MPs will vote against or abstain.
It is both sad and amusing to see the succession of Opposition MPs parading in front of the cameras to come up with their desperate excuses for why they don't want an election. Of course none of them will mention the real reason - that they are frightened of the verdict of the voters.
I they conspire to stop the GE or worse try to remove Boris I cannot imagine the fury heading their way in public opinion
Tories get furious if Tory leader doesnt get his way shocker!
Well let us see
We will never know, if the GE is delayed then events between now and the subsequent GE will influence the results far more than whether they accepted an election on a particular date. If the election is agreed then its moot.
The opposition can only agree to have an election after October 31st has past (i.e. Start the process then, not an election date already agreed) . They can't agree before as that is handing Boris a massive majority.
Everyone knows this is about a Parliament too frightened to actually do anything except try and hold the PM hostage and blame him for everything. It is a policy that has clearly failed and the longer they go on with it the worse it will get for them.
I disagree, Richard. As long as the prospect of leaving on 31/10 remains in the mind of voters (who may not be as clued up as we are and the "get ready" ads are still running) Boris will have his support but when he fails to deliver there will be questions asked and while Johnson's supporters will look round for someone else to blame, there will be those who will perhaps question Johnson's promises in the future as a result of his failure in the present.
I'd also argue the "policy" has succeeded - Johnson now looks weak and out of control of events. That's what harms a PM, not being wrong or getting it wrong - the loss of authority (whether symbolic or actual) matters and I think those keen on backing Johnson can see this authority slipping away with time.
Clever joke by JRM in the HOC just now: "I thought we were getting a ditch joke, to which I was going to say 'Haha'." I doubt many MPs or members of the press lobby understood the pun!
I only know that because of Terry Pratchett, so I imagine a handful got it too.
There is a Ha Ha Rd in Woolwich near where I used to work.
If any MPs are waiting on the extension request decision before the decide if to back an election, surely we're definitely getting one? If the EU is to react to events they won't rule out the date that parliament requested and which allows the PM to do what he wants - by definition it must be acceptable to both.
I expect the extension and wording has been agreed between Boris and Macron today and the statement is likely to be custom made to help Boris get his election
The opposition can only agree to an election after October 31st has past. They can't agree before. That is handing Boris a massive majority.
Having any election before Brexit has passed gives him a big majority. Holding up Brexit when a deal is there on the table, with majority parliamentary support, is going to kill Labour in leave seats.
No sign of the Opposition parties being inclined to vote for the election motion.The Green , LDs , SNP, ChangeUK and many Labour MPs will vote against or abstain.
Someone earlier posted that the LDs would agree to it?
Umunna implied it by saying that there weren't the votes for a second referendum in this Parliament and (mysteriously) this was Labour's fault. Logically, he must want a new Parliament.
Going into the election with the deal going through will give Johnson a huge boost .
At least if the deal hasn’t gone through there’s s chance the Leave vote might still be split.
Agreed. That’s Labour’s only reasonable play now I think. If their vote is going to be split, they need to make sure the Tory vote is too.
Labour are screwed either way - either they're blocking a deal that in the eyes of the general public will Get Brexit Done At Bloody Last without a crash-out, or they have to fight Boris immediately after he has Gotten Brexit Done At Bloody Last.
What they needed was for Boris to have to fight an election without having obtained a Deal - that was their only hope of victory.
Instead, by trying so hard to screw Boris via the Benn Act, they ended up screwing themselves much harder. Beautiful poetic justice!
I'm chuckling at the thought of Boris Johnson fighting an election saying he's just Got Brexit Done And Look How Great It Is. Good for Labour. As for the Tories saying Let's Get Brexit Done after they have been in office for three years since the referendum and haven't managed? Also good for Labour.
The Tories will fight the election on immigration, which for much of the population is what "Brexit" is code for anyway. They haven't got much else left.
Presumably you'll be encouraging Labour to vote for a GE then? And good afternoon everyone.
Within 12 months Con were back with a landslide and the Liberal party was obliterated for the rest of the 20th Century.
So perhaps this time Con will win a landslide, then within a year a year later the Liberals rise to a position not sen since the early 20th century? Since I believe elections are cyclical.
That would be a bloody long cycle...
Well it's not quite a longue duree, but of course the ebb and flow of politics would operate on longer cycles than a few years.
No sign of the Opposition parties being inclined to vote for the election motion.The Green , LDs , ChangeUK and many Labour MPs will vote against or abstain.
It is both sad and amusing to see the succession of Opposition MPs parading in front of the cameras to come up with their desperate excuses for why they don't want an election. Of course none of them will mention the real reason - that they are frightened of the verdict of the voters.
More likely a desire to expose Johnson for what he is before voters are invited to express their views on him.
I am not a great Johnson fan but he is certainly not being bothered by the stupid little games the Opposition keep trying to play.
No, he's been playing his own stupid little games.
Refusing to take responsibility through an election is the ultimate stupid little game. They are cowards the lot of them.
I think the cowardice is refusing to either pass a deal or decide on a referendum/revoke, giving up and asking the public again. In that sense all of the 2017 parliament have failed, and are cowards. They don't want the responsibility of making the decision.
There will be an orgy of egg scraping from faces on here if so.
What, while the cowardly Labour Party actively keep the Tories in power indefinitely because they're afraid of being wiped out? Really strong position you've got there
Everyone knows this is about a Parliament too frightened to actually do anything except try and hold the PM hostage and blame him for everything. It is a policy that has clearly failed and the longer they go on with it the worse it will get for them.
I disagree, Richard. As long as the prospect of leaving on 31/10 remains in the mind of voters (who may not be as clued up as we are and the "get ready" ads are still running) Boris will have his support but when he fails to deliver there will be questions asked and while Johnson's supporters will look round for someone else to blame, there will be those who will perhaps question Johnson's promises in the future as a result of his failure in the present.
I'd also argue the "policy" has succeeded - Johnson now looks weak and out of control of events. That's what harms a PM, not being wrong or getting it wrong - the loss of authority (whether symbolic or actual) matters and I think those keen on backing Johnson can see this authority slipping away with time.
I think Boris seems to be the only one in parliament who knows what he wants. It is Labour who are all over the place.
No sign of the Opposition parties being inclined to vote for the election motion.The Green , LDs , ChangeUK and many Labour MPs will vote against or abstain.
It is both sad and amusing to see the succession of Opposition MPs parading in front of the cameras to come up with their desperate excuses for why they don't want an election. Of course none of them will mention the real reason - that they are frightened of the verdict of the voters.
They should take a leaf out of the PB Lefties on here who have accepted that under the current leadership with its current policies the Labour Party is unelectable.
No sign of the Opposition parties being inclined to vote for the election motion.The Green , LDs , SNP, ChangeUK and many Labour MPs will vote against or abstain.
Someone earlier posted that the LDs would agree to it?
Umunna implied it by saying that there weren't the votes for a second referendum in this Parliament and (mysteriously) this was Labour's fault. Logically, he must want a new Parliament.
I am mystified why so many people vote supporters are horrified at the thought of a GE. This could just be their chance to get a remain parliament that would give them the referendum they so desire, indeed it may be the only way
I expect they will confirm the extension is to give time to hold a GE
If no election and failed deal, no deal is the end result
Then Johnson forgets to bring his election motion, labour don’t realize it’s all changed and Johnson gets his golden no deal win that he wanted all along (well he didn’t but his paymasters did)
Everyone knows this is about a Parliament too frightened to actually do anything except try and hold the PM hostage and blame him for everything. It is a policy that has clearly failed and the longer they go on with it the worse it will get for them.
I disagree, Richard. As long as the prospect of leaving on 31/10 remains in the mind of voters (who may not be as clued up as we are and the "get ready" ads are still running) Boris will have his support but when he fails to deliver there will be questions asked and while Johnson's supporters will look round for someone else to blame, there will be those who will perhaps question Johnson's promises in the future as a result of his failure in the present.
I'd also argue the "policy" has succeeded - Johnson now looks weak and out of control of events. That's what harms a PM, not being wrong or getting it wrong - the loss of authority (whether symbolic or actual) matters and I think those keen on backing Johnson can see this authority slipping away with time.
Clearly you are not talking to any Leave supporters. The fact that Boris has managed to get a deal and that it is only been blocked by Parliament because they don't want any sort of Brexit is what is angering Leavers. We are way passed the point at which any Leaver with the possible exception of Farage and Tice will make anything of this. Amongst Leave voters the hatred for Parliament and its games is all consuming.
It's the logic of the Brexit Party - they want Brexit so much, but will take action to block it happening if it doesn't go their precise way.
Honestly, it just looks bloody dumb to me. I get they want an election, I get that parliament will try to wreck the bill, but say you don't get that election: are you planning to just sit there? What's the point of that?
Oh, and a reminder the government via Raab and others said they had the votes to pass the bill. This stating they will not proceed with it is an open admission that they were lying.
Clever joke by JRM in the HOC just now: "I thought we were getting a ditch joke, to which I was going to say 'Ha-ha'." I doubt many MPs or members of the press lobby understood the pun!
A ha-ha is not a ditch.
When reaching for a pun exact equivalents are hardly necessary.
No sign of the Opposition parties being inclined to vote for the election motion.The Green , LDs , ChangeUK and many Labour MPs will vote against or abstain.
It is both sad and amusing to see the succession of Opposition MPs parading in front of the cameras to come up with their desperate excuses for why they don't want an election. Of course none of them will mention the real reason - that they are frightened of the verdict of the voters.
They should take a leaf out of the PB Lefties on here who have accepted that under the current leadership with its current policies the Labour Party is unelectable.
But if the WA is passed in November and Brexit gets done, why the need for a GE?
The only way the WA might pass now through this Commons is if it is amended and a CU is added and Labour MPs from Leave seats and the DUP back it on that basis.
However that would please neither the Tories who would want the CU removed, nor the Brexit Party who want No Deal nor most Labour MPs and the SNP and Greens who would want a confirmatory referendum or the LDs who would want to revoke Art 50 altogether. Hence they will all want a GE
Everyone knows this is about a Parliament too frightened to actually do anything except try and hold the PM hostage and blame him for everything. It is a policy that has clearly failed and the longer they go on with it the worse it will get for them.
I disagree, Richard. As long as the prospect of leaving on 31/10 remains in the mind of voters (who may not be as clued up as we are and the "get ready" ads are still running) Boris will have his support but when he fails to deliver there will be questions asked and while Johnson's supporters will look round for someone else to blame, there will be those who will perhaps question Johnson's promises in the future as a result of his failure in the present.
I'd also argue the "policy" has succeeded - Johnson now looks weak and out of control of events. That's what harms a PM, not being wrong or getting it wrong - the loss of authority (whether symbolic or actual) matters and I think those keen on backing Johnson can see this authority slipping away with time.
Clearly you are not talking to any Leave supporters. The fact that Boris has managed to get a deal and that it is only been blocked by Parliament because they don't want any sort of Brexit is what is angering Leavers. We are way passed the point at which any Leaver with the possible exception of Farage and Tice will make anything of this. Amongst Leave voters the hatred for Parliament and its games is all consuming.
No sign of the Opposition parties being inclined to vote for the election motion.The Green , LDs , SNP, ChangeUK and many Labour MPs will vote against or abstain.
Someone earlier posted that the LDs would agree to it?
Umunna implied it by saying that there weren't the votes for a second referendum in this Parliament and (mysteriously) this was Labour's fault. Logically, he must want a new Parliament.
I am mystified why so many people vote supporters are horrified at the thought of a GE. This could just be their chance to get a remain parliament that would give them the referendum they so desire, indeed it may be the only way
It is the dynamics of fixed term parliaments, it is rarely in both main parties interests to have an election on a particular date. The tories wouldnt have wanted one in the first half of the year and Labour dont want one in the second half of the year. At some point it might flip around again. The sweet spot where it suits both is pretty limited.
I take issue with media counting all the Conservative, Libdems, And SNP to work out the number of Labour needed to pass it. Abstentions are key aren’t they. And Actually to be fair, both main parties seem split whether a general election settles Brexit, or Brexit needs to be more settled for a general election? As one put it “My objection to a general election is one of principle in that with a general election the secret is in the name – it is general. It’s not and shouldn’t be about a single binary issue like Brexit.”
So how many conservative abstentions kills the Grinch Election?
labour. I don’t feel they all want one. Even if some at top want one In short or medium term I think vociferous support against will stop them supporting or whipping. They will probably say too much risk of no deal brexit. Libdems and SNP. They could put on seats. But the flip side is massive win for Boris so he can ram through his Brexit and domestic policy. The GE and Boris majority wouldn’t help their brexit fight one bit. Remain Parliament. Surely remain now have Boris and his deal where they want it? Even if Boris is right and we do leave under his deal, it may say this is Boris brexit at top of paper, but it can dramatically change under that. So what really good reason would remain Parliament have for surrendering that influence.
A Christmas party wrecking general election is utter insanity. It's so obviously a ruse knowing full well MPs will never vote for it.
Not to mention the fact it's so cold dark and wet. And what if we get a big freeze?
He may as well have proposed to hold it on Boxing Day.....
I think 5th December would have been better as 12th is a bit close to Christmas but if people want to vote they will vote (whatever the weather and whatever time it gets dark)
I have a feeling people will be very surprised by how high the turnout is in this election.
Postal voting might get caught up in a GE close to xmas!
Isn't there postal strike planned?
There will be now!
Dunno about that, the leadership of the postal workers union are very pro Corbyn and the proposed strike action isn't about pay or pensions but about how the company is run. Xmas postal strikes will be about as popular with the public as a turd in a spacesuit especially if the public doesn't really know what they all about. Corbyn should be able to persuade his pals to delay strikes until the New Year to avoid giving Boris free ammunition.
Clearly you are not talking to any Leave supporters. The fact that Boris has managed to get a deal and that it is only been blocked by Parliament because they don't want any sort of Brexit is what is angering Leavers. We are way passed the point at which any Leaver with the possible exception of Farage and Tice will make anything of this. Amongst Leave voters the hatred for Parliament and its games is all consuming.
There are two aspects - there is a WA which Parliament will accept (or did at Second Reading) but it simply wants time to carry out proper and appropriate scrutiny and the farcical notion such a key document should be rushed through Parliament in 72 hours just to satisfy one man's ego and promises is absurd.
The second is while I appreciate the pro-Government and pro-Johnson spin, there will also be the counter argument that Johnson made a promise and couldn't keep it. Some may wonder why he made the commitment if he thought it couldn't be kept and others might ask what other unachievable commitments and promises he has made - the one about making Britain "the greatest place on Earth" for example?
No point proceeding with the Bill with this HOC. It's all a game to the Remainers who will find reasons and devices to block it. The only exception to this is if the EU allows just a technical extension.
No sign of the Opposition parties being inclined to vote for the election motion.The Green , LDs , ChangeUK and many Labour MPs will vote against or abstain.
It is both sad and amusing to see the succession of Opposition MPs parading in front of the cameras to come up with their desperate excuses for why they don't want an election. Of course none of them will mention the real reason - that they are frightened of the verdict of the voters.
I they conspire to stop the GE or worse try to remove Boris I cannot imagine the fury heading their way in public opinion
Tories get furious if Tory leader doesnt get his way shocker!
Well let us see
We will never know, if the GE is delayed then events between now and the subsequent GE will influence the results far more than whether they accepted an election on a particular date. If the election is agreed then its moot.
A Christmas party wrecking general election is utter insanity. It's so obviously a ruse knowing full well MPs will never vote for it.
Not to mention the fact it's so cold dark and wet. And what if we get a big freeze?
He may as well have proposed to hold it on Boxing Day.....
I think 5th December would have been better as 12th is a bit close to Christmas but if people want to vote they will vote (whatever the weather and whatever time it gets dark)
I have a feeling people will be very surprised by how high the turnout is in this election.
Postal voting might get caught up in a GE close to xmas!
Isn't there postal strike planned?
There will be now!
Dunno about that, the leadership of the postal workers union are very pro Corbyn and the proposed strike action isn't about pay or pensions but about how the company is run. Xmas postal strikes will be about as popular with the public as a turd in a spacesuit especially if the public doesn't really know what they all about. Corbyn should be able to persuade his pals to delay strikes until the New Year to avoid giving Boris free ammunition.
Corbyn's authority for such things is pretty weak at the moment. He is being pushed around by other forces within his clique.
Clever joke by JRM in the HOC just now: "I thought we were getting a ditch joke, to which I was going to say 'Ha-ha'." I doubt many MPs or members of the press lobby understood the pun!
A ha-ha is not a ditch.
When reaching for a pun exact equivalents are hardly necessary.
The opposition can only agree to an election after October 31st has past. They can't agree before. That is handing Boris a massive majority.
Having any election before Brexit has passed gives him a big majority. Holding up Brexit when a deal is there on the table, with majority parliamentary support, is going to kill Labour in leave seats.
No, triggering after the self imposed do or die deadline but before Brexit is done is the correct time. Shows Boris is powerless and a liar not to be trusted.
Clever joke by JRM in the HOC just now: "I thought we were getting a ditch joke, to which I was going to say 'Ha-ha'." I doubt many MPs or members of the press lobby understood the pun!
A ha-ha is not a ditch.
When reaching for a pun exact equivalents are hardly necessary.
No sign of the Opposition parties being inclined to vote for the election motion.The Green , LDs , SNP, ChangeUK and many Labour MPs will vote against or abstain.
Someone earlier posted that the LDs would agree to it?
To the ordinary voter, this will look like Johnson is delaying Brexit. Not a good look to his supporters.
To MPs, it will look like a bluff again. They'll have two choices. Revoke or call his bluff, sit on their hands and risk going over the cliff. (That's what I would do as he would be faced with catastrophe or having to revoke).
It's the logic of the Brexit Party - they want Brexit so much, but will take action to block it happening if it doesn't go their precise way.
Honestly, it just looks bloody dumb to me. I get they want an election, I get that parliament will try to wreck the bill, but say you don't get that election: are you planning to just sit there? What's the point of that?
Oh, and a reminder the government via Raab and others said they had the votes to pass the bill. This stating they will not proceed with it is an open admission that they were lying.
They think they have a way to leave on 31/10 and hope they are refused the election. No idea what it is but they think it’s there.
Hmm, the article is remarkably coy about the exact questions asked. That's often a sign that the survey doesn't actually show what the article claims it shows. Let's hope that is the case here!
No sign of the Opposition parties being inclined to vote for the election motion.The Green , LDs , SNP, ChangeUK and many Labour MPs will vote against or abstain.
Someone earlier posted that the LDs would agree to it?
Then it must be true.
To be honest although the official Lib Dem Line is against an election the reality an election before leaving is the best result. The war chests are fuller than they have ever been and the Labour Party in the worst position possible. Time to go for it I think
No sign of the Opposition parties being inclined to vote for the election motion.The Green , LDs , ChangeUK and many Labour MPs will vote against or abstain.
It is both sad and amusing to see the succession of Opposition MPs parading in front of the cameras to come up with their desperate excuses for why they don't want an election. Of course none of them will mention the real reason - that they are frightened of the verdict of the voters.
I they conspire to stop the GE or worse try to remove Boris I cannot imagine the fury heading their way in public opinion
Tories get furious if Tory leader doesnt get his way shocker!
The Tories changed the rules and brought in the FTPA when it suited them, now, only a few short years later they are having a tantrum and throwing their toys out the pram because it no longer suits them. Hoist by their own petard seems to describe the situation perfectly. That and schadenfreude.
Clever joke by JRM in the HOC just now: "I thought we were getting a ditch joke, to which I was going to say 'Ha-ha'." I doubt many MPs or members of the press lobby understood the pun!
A ha-ha is not a ditch.
When reaching for a pun exact equivalents are hardly necessary.
We don’t have the full voting figures yet in terms of MPs . Bozo really wanted to lose that vote .
Indeed - really curious to see who abstained. 310-294, there were 31 of them.
Edit: 11 Lab abstainers, Allen and Lamb from LibDems.
Indies: Bebb Boles Clarke Hermon Paisley Lewis Nokes Stewart Woodcock and …. Williamson
…. and the whole of tigc
Curious why Allen and Lamb would do so.
Sorry am I reading this right? There were Labour abstentions on the Queen’s Speech?!
Sometimes their paired or just away but Bozo secretly wanted to lose the vote . That’s why Cummings goaded some of the Tory rebels by a briefing saying those rebels who voted against the programme motion would never get the whip back , in the hope they would vote against the government.
If a Jan 31st extension and a 12th December GE are both confirmed, I can't see any great incentive for rebel ex-Tories and potential Labour supporters of the Boris deal to make it happen before the GE. The reasoning will surely be that if Boris gets his majority, the deal goes through probably as is, and if he doesn't they won't have lost anything because the next parliament could try to modify the deal.
If I'm right, that makes a December 31st Brexit pretty damned tight, perhaps impossible: the only way it could happen is if the new parliament gets it done and dusted in the week before Christmas. Also it has to be ratified by the European parliament. So I think we're now out to a January Brexit, predicated on a Boris win.
Anyone see any holes in this reasoning?
No, but what if the extension is shorter or he can't get support for an election?
In either case, it's feasible Brexit could go through in December.
If the extension is shorter, then yes that would certainly change the conclusion, but I think it's quite unlikely. If the extension is until Jan 31st but Labour somehow manage to find an excuse not to back the GE, then I'd have thought Nothing Has Changed and it will all drag on into January.
I don't follow that. There was a majority of 30 for Johnson's deal. I don't believe that was driven by the fear of No Deal on 31 October, because I think everyone assumed there would be an extension if needed. I don't see why the bill shouldn't pass.
That majority was only for the second reading, and it's very likely that opposition to the deal at least on points of detail will mount as people look at it more and various organisations lobby MPs on the problems (such as with the NI-GB paperwork issue). So I can see it all getting bogged down again.
I believe that in 1971 Ted Heath's majority to take us into the EEC dropped from 114 to <10 as amendments were added. Johnson doesn't have a majority of 114 at the start.
Comments
I am not a great Johnson fan but he is certainly not being bothered by the stupid little games the Opposition keep trying to play. Clearly the public have more sense than you give them credit for.
So far , the Opposition parties have refused to be bounced by Johnson.
No idea if he had a straight face while saying it as it was on the wireless.
I'd also argue the "policy" has succeeded - Johnson now looks weak and out of control of events. That's what harms a PM, not being wrong or getting it wrong - the loss of authority (whether symbolic or actual) matters and I think those keen on backing Johnson can see this authority slipping away with time.
There will be an orgy of egg scraping from faces on here if so.
But if the WA is passed in November and Brexit gets done, why the need for a GE?
1950-1974 / 1974-1997 / 1997-2019 / 2019-
Jez taking same view as me perhaps?
https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/1187420132114653184?s=21
The sensible route, take control
And watch Labour cry when they realize what they've gotten themselves into.
I’m just looking forward to the tortured climb downs from the likes of Gin and Big G on here!
Honestly, it just looks bloody dumb to me. I get they want an election, I get that parliament will try to wreck the bill, but say you don't get that election: are you planning to just sit there? What's the point of that?
Oh, and a reminder the government via Raab and others said they had the votes to pass the bill. This stating they will not proceed with it is an open admission that they were lying.
Interesting.
However that would please neither the Tories who would want the CU removed, nor the Brexit Party who want No Deal nor most Labour MPs and the SNP and Greens who would want a confirmatory referendum or the LDs who would want to revoke Art 50 altogether. Hence they will all want a GE
If it happens I will say I got it wrong
I take issue with media counting all the Conservative, Libdems, And SNP to work out the number of Labour needed to pass it. Abstentions are key aren’t they. And Actually to be fair, both main parties seem split whether a general election settles Brexit, or Brexit needs to be more settled for a general election? As one put it “My objection to a general election is one of principle in that with a general election the secret is in the name – it is general. It’s not and shouldn’t be about a single binary issue like Brexit.”
So how many conservative abstentions kills the Grinch Election?
labour. I don’t feel they all want one. Even if some at top want one In short or medium term I think vociferous support against will stop them supporting or whipping. They will probably say too much risk of no deal brexit.
Libdems and SNP. They could put on seats. But the flip side is massive win for Boris so he can ram through his Brexit and domestic policy. The GE and Boris majority wouldn’t help their brexit fight one bit.
Remain Parliament. Surely remain now have Boris and his deal where they want it? Even if Boris is right and we do leave under his deal, it may say this is Boris brexit at top of paper, but it can dramatically change under that. So what really good reason would remain Parliament have for surrendering that influence.
Xmas postal strikes will be about as popular with the public as a turd in a spacesuit especially if the public doesn't really know what they all about.
Corbyn should be able to persuade his pals to delay strikes until the New Year to avoid giving Boris free ammunition.
The second is while I appreciate the pro-Government and pro-Johnson spin, there will also be the counter argument that Johnson made a promise and couldn't keep it. Some may wonder why he made the commitment if he thought it couldn't be kept and others might ask what other unachievable commitments and promises he has made - the one about making Britain "the greatest place on Earth" for example?
Why continue with it
It is a slim window to hit.
That would give him more ammunition for his election .
ck
https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/1187415917958971392?s=20
Edit:
11 Lab abstainers, Allen and Lamb from LibDems.
Indies: Bebb Boles Clarke Hermon Paisley Lewis Nokes Stewart Woodcock and …. Williamson
…. and the whole of tigc
To MPs, it will look like a bluff again. They'll have two choices. Revoke or call his bluff, sit on their hands and risk going over the cliff. (That's what I would do as he would be faced with catastrophe or having to revoke).
They think they have a way to leave on 31/10 and hope they are refused the election. No idea what it is but they think it’s there.
Interesting place the Corbyn Project has taken us to!
Makes sense to someone I guess.
I have no idea but I find it inconceivable the SNP and Corbyn would turn down an election
I cannot even start to imagine the gift to the Scons.
All their birthdays at once in making the SNP look frit
Heidi Allen, Norman Lamb, Rory Stewart abstained.
If the deal was to go through before the election then Labour are screwed .
There are no good options but the only way they have any chance is to see the Leave vote split .
Election triggered before October 31st October has passed == massive Tory Majority
Election triggered after Oct 31st with Brexit not sorted == Brexit Party resurgence.