I expect a one line bill for a GE but who knows how public opinion will come out this weekend and just how much the EU statement tomorrow will put huge pressure on labour if, as I expect, they say the extension is for a GE takes place
Let's look back to the end of October 2003, with just three months or so until the Iowa caucuses.
Howard Dean, a populist left winger from New England, with a consumer protection bent, was leading the polls with 29%. Eight points behind him was the elderly face of the establishment, House Majority Leader, Dick Gephardt on 21%.
There were then three candidates in single digits, but on 5% or more: Wesley Clark, John Kerry and John Edwards.
Six weeks later at the beginning of December, things had not changed much. Dean was 26%, Gephardt on 22%. Edwards had slipped back to 5%, while Kerry was marooned on 9%.
Then Iowa came around. Based on national polling, Dean was widely expected to win Iowa.
In reality, Dean came a distant third in Iowa, behind Edwards and Kerry.
And the contest became a fight between Edwards and Kerry - two candidates who had been twenty points off the pace before Iowa.
Will just get bogged down with loads of amendements on customs unions and second referendums.
Yes, but while I want some of those amendments to succeed and Boris does not, he can at least truthfully say he tried to pass it, and even gave more than just 3 days (even if it is still not that much). If he didn't try he looks very stupid given there's all that time.
Labour will be under huge pressure to agree to an election .
The key though is the EU have to agree the extension tomorrow which pulls the rug from under Corbyn .
It makes Boris look a clown. It's "do or die by 31 October", then it's please let's have an election, then he begs Labour to let there be one, and he doesn't get anything he wants, and then he finally manages to sort out an election when it's the only way to AVOID leaving on 31 October according to terms he learns from the French ambassador who comes round his house to spell them out to him. Who wants the country to be led by an idiot like that?
If Parliament wasn’t fucking around like Boris in his prime then it would be a lot simpler
Back his deal or no confidence him. Don’t just block everything and not seek a path forward
I don't really think it counts as a politician breaking a promise if they did everything in their power to do it but the opposition blocked it.
That's reasonable, but Labour and Farage both have reason to be harsher in interpreting it. Particularly since the way to fight it is to say that you failed. It's like when politicians break out the 'I'm stupid' defence for a gaff, it's a last resort.
I don't really think it counts as a politician breaking a promise if they did everything in their power to do it but the opposition blocked it.
In justice it shouldn't, but according to that ComRes poll the electorate doesn't agree.
I had assumed that negotiating a deal that had the backing of the Commons would be a huge advantage to Johnson going into an election. But perhaps I was underestimating the stupidity of a large group of Brexiteers.
If that poll were right, we'd be looking at a Labour-led government seeking to go back to the drawing board with Brexit.
Let's look back to the end of October 2003, with just three months or so until the Iowa caucuses.
Howard Dean, a populist left winger from New England, with a consumer protection bent, was leading the polls with 29%. Eight points behind him was the elderly face of the establishment, House Majority Leader, Dick Gephardt on 21%.
There were then three candidates in single digits, but on 5% or more: Wesley Clark, John Kerry and John Edwards.
Six weeks later at the beginning of December, things had not changed much. Dean was 26%, Gephardt on 22%. Edwards had slipped back to 5%, while Kerry was marooned on 9%.
Then Iowa came around. Based on national polling, Dean was widely expected to win Iowa.
In reality, Dean came a distant third in Iowa, behind Edwards and Kerry.
And the contest became a fight between Edwards and Kerry - two candidates who had been twenty points off the pace before Iowa.
History, though, isn't much of a guide here.
I'm pretty sceptical about Biden's candidacy, too. But there is (as yet) no clear alternative moderate standard bearer who might appeal to all the constituencies which he does.
I could see circumstances where Warren's support blew up in a similar manner to Dean (though I don't think it will happen), but a Biden defeat would more likely be by slow erosion.
If a Jan 31st extension and a 12th December GE are both confirmed, I can't see any great incentive for rebel ex-Tories and potential Labour supporters of the Boris deal to make it happen before the GE. The reasoning will surely be that if Boris gets his majority, the deal goes through probably as is, and if he doesn't they won't have lost anything because the next parliament could try to modify the deal.
If I'm right, that makes a December 31st Brexit pretty damned tight, perhaps impossible: the only way it could happen is if the new parliament gets it done and dusted in the week before Christmas. Also it has to be ratified by the European parliament. So I think we're now out to a January Brexit, predicated on a Boris win.
A Christmas party wrecking general election is utter insanity. It's so obviously a ruse knowing full well MPs will never vote for it.
Not to mention the fact it's so cold dark and wet. And what if we get a big freeze?
He may as well have proposed to hold it on Boxing Day.....
I think 5th December would have been better as 12th is a bit close to Christmas but if people want to vote they will vote (whatever the weather and whatever time it gets dark)
I have a feeling people will be very surprised by how high the turnout is in this election.
Going into the election with the deal going through will give Johnson a huge boost .
At least if the deal hasn’t gone through there’s s chance the Leave vote might still be split.
Agreed. That’s Labour’s only reasonable play now I think. If their vote is going to be split, they need to make sure the Tory vote is too.
Labour are screwed either way - either they're blocking a deal that in the eyes of the general public will Get Brexit Done At Bloody Last without a crash-out, or they have to fight Boris immediately after he has Gotten Brexit Done At Bloody Last.
What they needed was for Boris to have to fight an election without having obtained a Deal - that was their only hope of victory.
Instead, by trying so hard to screw Boris via the Benn Act, they ended up screwing themselves much harder. Beautiful poetic justice!
I'm chuckling at the thought of Boris Johnson fighting an election saying he's just Got Brexit Done And Look How Great It Is. Good for Labour. As for the Tories saying Let's Get Brexit Done after they have been in office for three years since the referendum and haven't managed? Also good for Labour.
The Tories will fight the election on immigration, which for much of the population is what "Brexit" is code for anyway. They haven't got much else left.
Presumably you'll be encouraging Labour to vote for a GE then? And good afternoon everyone.
Within 12 months Con were back with a landslide and the Liberal party was obliterated for the rest of the 20th Century.
So perhaps this time Con will win a landslide, then within a year a year later the Liberals rise to a position not sen since the early 20th century? Since I believe elections are cyclical.
The new Iowa poll will be good news for Trump as a new Marquette poll from the key swing state of Wisconsin has Biden leading Trump by 6% but Sanders only leading Trump by 2%, Warren only leading Trump by 1% and Trump leading Buttigieg by 2%
If a Jan 31st extension and a December GE are both confirmed, I can't see any great incentive for rebel ex-Tories and potential Labour supporters of the Boris deal to make it happen before the GE. The reasoning will surely be that if Boris gets his majority, the deal goes through probably as is, and if he doesn't they won't have lost anything because the next parliament could try to modify the deal.
If I'm right, that makes a December 31st Brexit pretty damned tight, perhaps impossible: the only way it could happen is if the new parliament gets it done and dusted in the week before Christmas. Also it has to be ratified by the European parliament. So I think we're now out to a January Brexit, predicated on a Boris win.
Anyone see any holes in this reasoning?
Seems relatively sound. As you say, why stick your neck out as a Lexiteer to pass a deal when Boris can get it done without you ending your career?
Boris is trying to get it passed again, but with even less chance of passing it. The ERG and he will have even less reason to stomach even a minor amendment to the bill, since they can try again later when they win.
Going into the election with the deal going through will give Johnson a huge boost .
At least if the deal hasn’t gone through there’s s chance the Leave vote might still be split.
Agreed. That’s Labour’s only reasonable play now I think. If their vote is going to be split, they need to make sure the Tory vote is too.
Labour are screwed either way - either they're blocking a deal that in the eyes of the general public will Get Brexit Done At Bloody Last without a crash-out, or they have to fight Boris immediately after he has Gotten Brexit Done At Bloody Last.
What they needed was for Boris to have to fight an election without having obtained a Deal - that was their only hope of victory.
Instead, by trying so hard to screw Boris via the Benn Act, they ended up screwing themselves much harder. Beautiful poetic justice!
I'm chuckling at the thought of Boris Johnson fighting an election saying he's just Got Brexit Done And Look How Great It Is. Good for Labour. As for the Tories saying Let's Get Brexit Done after they have been in office for three years since the referendum and haven't managed? Also good for Labour.
The Tories will fight the election on immigration, which for much of the population is what "Brexit" is code for anyway. They haven't got much else left.
Presumably you'll be encouraging Labour to vote for a GE then? And good afternoon everyone.
Within 12 months Con were back with a landslide and the Liberal party was obliterated for the rest of the 20th Century.
So perhaps this time Con will win a landslide, then within a year a year later the Liberals rise to a position not sen since the early 20th century? Since I believe elections are cyclical.
If a Jan 31st extension and a 12th December GE are both confirmed, I can't see any great incentive for rebel ex-Tories and potential Labour supporters of the Boris deal to make it happen before the GE. The reasoning will surely be that if Boris gets his majority, the deal goes through probably as is, and if he doesn't they won't have lost anything because the next parliament could try to modify the deal.
If I'm right, that makes a December 31st Brexit pretty damned tight, perhaps impossible: the only way it could happen is if the new parliament gets it done and dusted in the week before Christmas. Also it has to be ratified by the European parliament. So I think we're now out to a January Brexit, predicated on a Boris win.
Anyone see any holes in this reasoning?
No, but what if the extension is shorter or he can't get support for an election?
In either case, it's feasible Brexit could go through in December.
A Christmas party wrecking general election is utter insanity. It's so obviously a ruse knowing full well MPs will never vote for it.
Not to mention the fact it's so cold dark and wet. And what if we get a big freeze?
He may as well have proposed to hold it on Boxing Day.....
I think 5th December would have been better as 12th is a bit close to Christmas but if people want to vote they will vote (whatever the weather and whatever time it gets dark)
I have a feeling people will be very surprised by how high the turnout is in this election.
Postal voting might get caught up in a GE close to xmas!
I don't really think it counts as a politician breaking a promise if they did everything in their power to do it but the opposition blocked it.
indeed that's how it will be framed. Jezza prepare to meet thy electorate....
He loves campaigns, he will have no fear. Many of his MPs will not be so bold of course, but can still hope.
preaching to his converted...
I don't disagree, but he will always believe, and those who don't still came out for him last time. They won't stay at home despondent that all hope is lost, they'll hope he springs a second miraculous recovery. The downside for them is thereafter being required to sing Oh Jeremy Corbyn twice a day for the rest of eternity.
A Christmas party wrecking general election is utter insanity. It's so obviously a ruse knowing full well MPs will never vote for it.
Not to mention the fact it's so cold dark and wet. And what if we get a big freeze?
He may as well have proposed to hold it on Boxing Day.....
I think 5th December would have been better as 12th is a bit close to Christmas but if people want to vote they will vote (whatever the weather and whatever time it gets dark)
I have a feeling people will be very surprised by how high the turnout is in this election.
Going into the election with the deal going through will give Johnson a huge boost .
At least if the deal hasn’t gone through there’s s chance the Leave vote might still be split.
Agreed. That’s Labour’s only reasonable play now I think. If their vote is going to be split, they need to make sure the Tory vote is too.
Labour are screwed either way - either they're blocking a deal that in the eyes of the general public will Get Brexit Done At Bloody Last without a crash-out, or they have to fight Boris immediately after he has Gotten Brexit Done At Bloody Last.
What they needed was for Boris to have to fight an election without having obtained a Deal - that was their only hope of victory.
Instead, by trying so hard to screw Boris via the Benn Act, they ended up screwing themselves much harder. Beautiful poetic justice!
I'm chuckling at the thought of Boris Johnson fighting an election saying he's just Got Brexit Done And Look How Great It Is. Good for Labour. As for the Tories saying Let's Get Brexit Done after they have been in office for three years since the referendum and haven't managed? Also good for Labour.
The Tories will fight the election on immigration, which for much of the population is what "Brexit" is code for anyway. They haven't got much else left.
Presumably you'll be encouraging Labour to vote for a GE then? And good afternoon everyone.
Within 12 months Con were back with a landslide and the Liberal party was obliterated for the rest of the 20th Century.
So perhaps this time Con will win a landslide, then within a year a year later the Liberals rise to a position not sen since the early 20th century? Since I believe elections are cyclical.
That would be a bloody long cycle...
Well it's not quite a longue duree, but of course the ebb and flow of politics would operate on longer cycles than a few years.
There was all that noise about 'the politics of the JCR' under Cameron. It was nonsense, as any fool knows that the likes of Cameron wouldn't set foot in JCR politics.
Anyway, you ain't seen NUFFINK yet if this rabble get in.
If a Jan 31st extension and a 12th December GE are both confirmed, I can't see any great incentive for rebel ex-Tories and potential Labour supporters of the Boris deal to make it happen before the GE. The reasoning will surely be that if Boris gets his majority, the deal goes through probably as is, and if he doesn't they won't have lost anything because the next parliament could try to modify the deal.
If I'm right, that makes a December 31st Brexit pretty damned tight, perhaps impossible: the only way it could happen is if the new parliament gets it done and dusted in the week before Christmas. Also it has to be ratified by the European parliament. So I think we're now out to a January Brexit, predicated on a Boris win.
Anyone see any holes in this reasoning?
No, but what if the extension is shorter or he can't get support for an election?
In either case, it's feasible Brexit could go through in December.
If the extension is shorter, then yes that would certainly change the conclusion, but I think it's quite unlikely. If the extension is until Jan 31st but Labour somehow manage to find an excuse not to back the GE, then I'd have thought Nothing Has Changed and it will all drag on into January.
Going into the election with the deal going through will give Johnson a huge boost .
At least if the deal hasn’t gone through there’s s chance the Leave vote might still be split.
Agreed. That’s Labour’s only reasonable play now I think. If their vote is going to be split, they need to make sure the Tory vote is too.
Labour are screwed either way - either they're blocking a deal that in the eyes of the general public will Get Brexit Done At Bloody Last without a crash-out, or they have to fight Boris immediately after he has Gotten Brexit Done At Bloody Last.
What they needed was for Boris to have to fight an election without having obtained a Deal - that was their only hope of victory.
Instead, by trying so hard to screw Boris via the Benn Act, they ended up screwing themselves much harder. Beautiful poetic justice!
I'm chuckling at the thought of Boris Johnson fighting an election saying he's just Got Brexit Done And Look How Great It Is. Good for Labour. As for the Tories saying Let's Get Brexit Done after they have been in office for three years since the referendum and haven't managed? Also good for Labour.
The Tories will fight the election on immigration, which for much of the population is what "Brexit" is code for anyway. They haven't got much else left.
Presumably you'll be encouraging Labour to vote for a GE then? And good afternoon everyone.
Within 12 months Con were back with a landslide and the Liberal party was obliterated for the rest of the 20th Century.
So perhaps this time Con will win a landslide, then within a year a year later the Liberals rise to a position not sen since the early 20th century? Since I believe elections are cyclical.
That would be a bloody long cycle...
Well it's not quite a longue duree, but of course the ebb and flow of politics would operate on longer cycles than a few years.
Most of us don't have a century to wait around for it, though.
I expect they will confirm the extension is to give time to hold a GE
If no election and failed deal, no deal is the end result
I'm sure you are right on this point. The GE motion will have been discussed with the EU, and any extension beyond a short technical one will be contingent on the GE motion being passed by the House.
Going into the election with the deal going through will give Johnson a huge boost .
At least if the deal hasn’t gone through there’s s chance the Leave vote might still be split.
Agreed. That’s Labour’s only reasonable play now I think. If their vote is going to be split, they need to make sure the Tory vote is too.
Labour are screwed either way - either they're blocking a deal that in the eyes of the general public will Get Brexit Done At Bloody Last without a crash-out, or they have to fight Boris immediately after he has Gotten Brexit Done At Bloody Last.
What they needed was for Boris to have to fight an election without having obtained a Deal - that was their only hope of victory.
Instead, by trying so hard to screw Boris via the Benn Act, they ended up screwing themselves much harder. Beautiful poetic justice!
I'm chuckling at the thought of Boris Johnson fighting an election saying he's just Got Brexit Done And Look How Great It Is. Good for Labour. As for the Tories saying Let's Get Brexit Done after they have been in office for three years since the referendum and haven't managed? Also good for Labour.
The Tories will fight the election on immigration, which for much of the population is what "Brexit" is code for anyway. They haven't got much else left.
Presumably you'll be encouraging Labour to vote for a GE then? And good afternoon everyone.
Within 12 months Con were back with a landslide and the Liberal party was obliterated for the rest of the 20th Century.
So perhaps this time Con will win a landslide, then within a year a year later the Liberals rise to a position not sen since the early 20th century? Since I believe elections are cyclical.
That would be a bloody long cycle...
Well it's not quite a longue duree, but of course the ebb and flow of politics would operate on longer cycles than a few years.
No sign of the Opposition parties being inclined to vote for the election motion.The Green , LDs , SNP, ChangeUK and many Labour MPs will vote against or abstain.
Clever joke by JRM in the HOC just now: "I thought we were getting a ditch joke, to which I was going to say 'Ha-ha'." I doubt many MPs or members of the press lobby understood the pun!
If a Jan 31st extension and a 12th December GE are both confirmed, I can't see any great incentive for rebel ex-Tories and potential Labour supporters of the Boris deal to make it happen before the GE. The reasoning will surely be that if Boris gets his majority, the deal goes through probably as is, and if he doesn't they won't have lost anything because the next parliament could try to modify the deal.
If I'm right, that makes a December 31st Brexit pretty damned tight, perhaps impossible: the only way it could happen is if the new parliament gets it done and dusted in the week before Christmas. Also it has to be ratified by the European parliament. So I think we're now out to a January Brexit, predicated on a Boris win.
Anyone see any holes in this reasoning?
No, but what if the extension is shorter or he can't get support for an election?
In either case, it's feasible Brexit could go through in December.
If the extension is shorter, then yes that would certainly change the conclusion, but I think it's quite unlikely. If the extension is until Jan 31st but Labour somehow manage to find an excuse not to back the GE, then I'd have thought Nothing Has Changed and it will all drag on into January.
I don't follow that. There was a majority of 30 for Johnson's deal. I don't believe that was driven by the fear of No Deal on 31 October, because I think everyone assumed there would be an extension if needed. I don't see why the bill shouldn't pass.
A Christmas party wrecking general election is utter insanity. It's so obviously a ruse knowing full well MPs will never vote for it.
Not to mention the fact it's so cold dark and wet. And what if we get a big freeze?
He may as well have proposed to hold it on Boxing Day.....
I think 5th December would have been better as 12th is a bit close to Christmas but if people want to vote they will vote (whatever the weather and whatever time it gets dark)
I have a feeling people will be very surprised by how high the turnout is in this election.
Postal voting might get caught up in a GE close to xmas!
Clever joke by JRM in the HOC just now: "I thought we were getting a ditch joke, to which I was going to say 'Haha'." I doubt many MPs or members of the press lobby understood the pun!
I only know that because of Terry Pratchett, so I imagine a handful got it too.
Going into the election with the deal going through will give Johnson a huge boost .
At least if the deal hasn’t gone through there’s s chance the Leave vote might still be split.
Agreed. That’s Labour’s only reasonable play now I think. If their vote is going to be split, they need to make sure the Tory vote is too.
Labour are screwed either way - either they're blocking a deal that in the eyes of the general public will Get Brexit Done At Bloody Last without a crash-out, or they have to fight Boris immediately after he has Gotten Brexit Done At Bloody Last.
What they needed was for Boris to have to fight an election without having obtained a Deal - that was their only hope of victory.
Instead, by trying so hard to screw Boris via the Benn Act, they ended up screwing themselves much harder. Beautiful poetic justice!
I'm chuckling at the thought of Boris Johnson fighting an election saying he's just Got Brexit Done And Look How Great It Is. Good for Labour. As for the Tories saying Let's Get Brexit Done after they have been in office for three years since the referendum and haven't managed? Also good for Labour.
The Tories will fight the election on immigration, which for much of the population is what "Brexit" is code for anyway. They haven't got much else left.
Presumably you'll be encouraging Labour to vote for a GE then? And good afternoon everyone.
No sign of the Opposition parties being inclined to vote for the election motion.The Green , LDs , ChangeUK and many Labour MPs will vote against or abstain.
It is both sad and amusing to see the succession of Opposition MPs parading in front of the cameras to come up with their desperate excuses for why they don't want an election. Of course none of them will mention the real reason - that they are frightened of the verdict of the voters.
I don't really think it counts as a politician breaking a promise if they did everything in their power to do it but the opposition blocked it.
That's reasonable, but Labour and Farage both have reason to be harsher in interpreting it. Particularly since the way to fight it is to say that you failed. It's like when politicians break out the 'I'm stupid' defence for a gaff, it's a last resort.
I fear* that Labour have been too clever by half in recent weeks.
*well, the opposite of fear but you know what I mean.
Clever joke by JRM in the HOC just now: "I thought we were getting a ditch joke, to which I was going to say 'Ha-ha'." I doubt many MPs or members of the press lobby understood the pun!
A Christmas party wrecking general election is utter insanity. It's so obviously a ruse knowing full well MPs will never vote for it.
Not to mention the fact it's so cold dark and wet. And what if we get a big freeze?
He may as well have proposed to hold it on Boxing Day.....
I think 5th December would have been better as 12th is a bit close to Christmas but if people want to vote they will vote (whatever the weather and whatever time it gets dark)
I have a feeling people will be very surprised by how high the turnout is in this election.
Postal voting might get caught up in a GE close to xmas!
Going into the election with the deal going through will give Johnson a huge boost .
At least if the deal hasn’t gone through there’s s chance the Leave vote might still be split.
Agreed. That’s Labour’s only reasonable play now I think. If their vote is going to be split, they need to make sure the Tory vote is too.
Labour are screwed either way - either they're blocking a deal that in the eyes of the general public will Get Brexit Done At Bloody Last without a crash-out, or they have to fight Boris immediately after he has Gotten Brexit Done At Bloody Last.
What they needed was for Boris to have to fight an election without having obtained a Deal - that was their only hope of victory.
Instead, by trying so hard to screw Boris via the Benn Act, they ended up screwing themselves much harder. Beautiful poetic justice!
I'm chuckling at the thought of Boris Johnson fighting an election saying he's just Got Brexit Done And Look How Great It Is. Good for Labour. As for the Tories saying Let's Get Brexit Done after they have been in office for three years since the referendum and haven't managed? Also good for Labour.
The Tories will fight the election on immigration, which for much of the population is what "Brexit" is code for anyway. They haven't got much else left.
Presumably you'll be encouraging Labour to vote for a GE then? And good afternoon everyone.
Within 12 months Con were back with a landslide and the Liberal party was obliterated for the rest of the 20th Century.
So perhaps this time Con will win a landslide, then within a year a year later the Liberals rise to a position not sen since the early 20th century? Since I believe elections are cyclical.
That would be a bloody long cycle...
Well it's not quite a longue duree, but of course the ebb and flow of politics would operate on longer cycles than a few years.
Might they have the votes? Given Boris wants an election (albeit sooner than the VONC method), those ex-con and so on have no reason to back him up, nor do the DUP.
Feels like Boris has tried to tempt them into VONC him for awhile, took a break to get a deal, then tried to provoke them again.
Do the ‘opposition’ even have the numbers to no confidence him? They failed to vote down the Queen’s Speech for example.
I doubt it as the real Conservatives (Clarke, Hammond et al) are only rebelling to stop no deal, which looks unlikely regardless from here. Without them on board, the opposition need everyone else including DUP and Labour rebels to get it close.
No sign of the Opposition parties being inclined to vote for the election motion.The Green , LDs , ChangeUK and many Labour MPs will vote against or abstain.
It is both sad and amusing to see the succession of Opposition MPs parading in front of the cameras to come up with their desperate excuses for why they don't want an election. Of course none of them will mention the real reason - that they are frightened of the verdict of the voters.
I they conspire to stop the GE or worse try to remove Boris I cannot imagine the fury heading their way in public opinion
If a Jan 31st extension and a 12th December GE are both confirmed, I can't see any great incentive for rebel ex-Tories and potential Labour supporters of the Boris deal to make it happen before the GE. The reasoning will surely be that if Boris gets his majority, the deal goes through probably as is, and if he doesn't they won't have lost anything because the next parliament could try to modify the deal.
If I'm right, that makes a December 31st Brexit pretty damned tight, perhaps impossible: the only way it could happen is if the new parliament gets it done and dusted in the week before Christmas. Also it has to be ratified by the European parliament. So I think we're now out to a January Brexit, predicated on a Boris win.
Anyone see any holes in this reasoning?
No, but what if the extension is shorter or he can't get support for an election?
In either case, it's feasible Brexit could go through in December.
If the extension is shorter, then yes that would certainly change the conclusion, but I think it's quite unlikely. If the extension is until Jan 31st but Labour somehow manage to find an excuse not to back the GE, then I'd have thought Nothing Has Changed and it will all drag on into January.
I don't follow that. There was a majority of 30 for Johnson's deal. I don't believe that was driven by the fear of No Deal on 31 October, because I think everyone assumed there would be an extension if needed. I don't see why the bill shouldn't pass.
That majority was only for the second reading, and it's very likely that opposition to the deal at least on points of detail will mount as people look at it more and various organisations lobby MPs on the problems (such as with the NI-GB paperwork issue). So I can see it all getting bogged down again.
Going into the election with the deal going through will give Johnson a huge boost .
At least if the deal hasn’t gone through there’s s chance the Leave vote might still be split.
Agreed. That’s Labour’s only reasonable play now I think. If their vote is going to be split, they need to make sure the Tory vote is too.
Labour are screwed either way - either they're blocking a deal that in the eyes of the general public will Get Brexit Done At Bloody Last without a crash-out, or they have to fight Boris immediately after he has Gotten Brexit Done At Bloody Last.
What they needed was for Boris to have to fight an election without having obtained a Deal - that was their only hope of victory.
Instead, by trying so hard to screw Boris via the Benn Act, they ended up screwing themselves much harder. Beautiful poetic justice!
I'm chuckling at the thought of Boris Johnson fighting an election saying he's just Got Brexit Done And Look How Great It Is. Good for Labour. As for the Tories saying Let's Get Brexit Done after they have been in office for three years since the referendum and haven't managed? Also good for Labour.
The Tories will fight the election on immigration, which for much of the population is what "Brexit" is code for anyway. They haven't got much else left.
Presumably you'll be encouraging Labour to vote for a GE then? And good afternoon everyone.
Within 12 months Con were back with a landslide and the Liberal party was obliterated for the rest of the 20th Century.
So perhaps this time Con will win a landslide, then within a year a year later the Liberals rise to a position not sen since the early 20th century? Since I believe elections are cyclical.
That would be a bloody long cycle...
Well it's not quite a longue duree, but of course the ebb and flow of politics would operate on longer cycles than a few years.
This statement by Boris Johnson is not really about Brexit or an election - it's about regaining control or authority over events.
The worst thing for a Prime Minister is to appear to no longer be in control - Heath, Callaghan, Major, Brown, Cameron and May were all in their way undone at the point when it appeared they were no longer in charge and other forces whether it be the Unions or the markets or the electorate or the EU had effectively stripped them of that authority.
Last Saturday's Letwin Amendment did the same for Johnson - from the moment he became PM it was all about Brexit on 31/10 and this was as much a statement of authority as a statement of intent. Johnson was intent on taking back control of the agenda from parliament and the EU and controlling how we would leave, when and on what terms.
He failed.
Parliament took over last Saturday and effectively blocked his plan to leave on 31/10 and until this afternoon there's been drift. Now, Johnson is trying to regain control by playing his second card - an election - and hoping Labour are stupid enough to play ball but if they son't and he get 434 MPs to back him he again looks out of control with his authority severely damaged.
That's the beginning of the end for any Prime Minister.
Going into the election with the deal going through will give Johnson a huge boost .
At least if the deal hasn’t gone through there’s s chance the Leave vote might still be split.
Agreed. That’s Labour’s only reasonable play now I think. If their vote is going to be split, they need to make sure the Tory vote is too.
Labour are screwed either way - either they're blocking a deal that in the eyes of the general public will Get Brexit Done At Bloody Last without a crash-out, or they have to fight Boris immediately after he has Gotten Brexit Done At Bloody Last.
What they needed was for Boris to have to fight an election without having obtained a Deal - that was their only hope of victory.
Instead, by trying so hard to screw Boris via the Benn Act, they ended up screwing themselves much harder. Beautiful poetic justice!
I'm chuckling at the thought of Boris Johnson fighting an election saying he's just Got Brexit Done And Look How Great It Is. Good for Labour. As for the Tories saying Let's Get Brexit Done after they have been in office for three years since the referendum and haven't managed? Also good for Labour.
The Tories will fight the election on immigration, which for much of the population is what "Brexit" is code for anyway. They haven't got much else left.
Presumably you'll be encouraging Labour to vote for a GE then? And good afternoon everyone.
Within 12 months Con were back with a landslide and the Liberal party was obliterated for the rest of the 20th Century.
So perhaps this time Con will win a landslide, then within a year a year later the Liberals rise to a position not sen since the early 20th century? Since I believe elections are cyclical.
That would be a bloody long cycle...
Well it's not quite a longue duree, but of course the ebb and flow of politics would operate on longer cycles than a few years.
No sign of the Opposition parties being inclined to vote for the election motion.The Green , LDs , ChangeUK and many Labour MPs will vote against or abstain.
It is both sad and amusing to see the succession of Opposition MPs parading in front of the cameras to come up with their desperate excuses for why they don't want an election. Of course none of them will mention the real reason - that they are frightened of the verdict of the voters.
More likely a desire to expose Johnson for what he is before voters are invited to express their views on him.
Clever joke by JRM in the HOC just now: "I thought we were getting a ditch joke, to which I was going to say 'Ha-ha'." I doubt many MPs or members of the press lobby understood the pun!
This statement by Boris Johnson is not really about Brexit or an election - it's about regaining control or authority over events.
The worst thing for a Prime Minister is to appear to no longer be in control - Heath, Callaghan, Major, Brown, Cameron and May were all in their way undone at the point when it appeared they were no longer in charge and other forces whether it be the Unions or the markets or the electorate or the EU had effectively stripped them of that authority.
Last Saturday's Letwin Amendment did the same for Johnson - from the moment he became PM it was all about Brexit on 31/10 and this was as much a statement of authority as a statement of intent. Johnson was intent on taking back control of the agenda from parliament and the EU and controlling how we would leave, when and on what terms.
He failed.
Parliament took over last Saturday and effectively blocked his plan to leave on 31/10 and until this afternoon there's been drift. Now, Johnson is trying to regain control by playing his second card - an election - and hoping Labour are stupid enough to play ball but if they son't and he get 434 MPs to back him he again looks out of control with his authority severely damaged.
That's the beginning of the end for any Prime Minister.
And yet his polling improved...
Everyone knows this is about a Parliament too frightened to actually do anything except try and hold the PM hostage and blame him for everything. It is a policy that has clearly failed and the longer they go on with it the worse it will get for them.
No sign of the Opposition parties being inclined to vote for the election motion.The Green , LDs , SNP, ChangeUK and many Labour MPs will vote against or abstain.
Someone earlier posted that the LDs would agree to it?
The new Iowa poll will be good news for Trump as a new Marquette poll from the key swing state of Wisconsin has Biden leading Trump by 6% but Sanders only leading Trump by 2%, Warren only leading Trump by 1% and Trump leading Buttigieg by 2%
I think stodge has it right on this occasion. Boris lost momentum (which was hard gained in the first place given his position of weakness), and lost control. He's going for an easy route to try and get it back. Even if he gets his election he might end up even weaker, and he might not even get it.
Clever joke by JRM in the HOC just now: "I thought we were getting a ditch joke, to which I was going to say 'Ha-ha'." I doubt many MPs or members of the press lobby understood the pun!
Going into the election with the deal going through will give Johnson a huge boost .
At least if the deal hasn’t gone through there’s s chance the Leave vote might still be split.
Agreed. That’s Labour’s only reasonable play now I think. If their vote is going to be split, they need to make sure the Tory vote is too.
Labour are screwed either way - either they're blocking a deal that in the eyes of the general public will Get Brexit Done At Bloody Last without a crash-out, or they have to fight Boris immediately after he has Gotten Brexit Done At Bloody Last.
What they needed was for Boris to have to fight an election without having obtained a Deal - that was their only hope of victory.
Instead, by trying so hard to screw Boris via the Benn Act, they ended up screwing themselves much harder. Beautiful poetic justice!
I'm chuckling at the thought of Boris Johnson fighting an election saying he's just Got Brexit Done And Look How Great It Is. Good for Labour. As for the Tories saying Let's Get Brexit Done after they have been in office for three years since the referendum and haven't managed? Also good for Labour.
The Tories will fight the election on immigration, which for much of the population is what "Brexit" is code for anyway. They haven't got much else left.
Presumably you'll be encouraging Labour to vote for a GE then? And good afternoon everyone.
Result of the December 1923 general election was Labour (extreme) minority government backed by Liberal confidence and supply arrangement.
Within 9 months the Liberals pulled the plug on the arrangment (thinking either Lab or Con would be desperate for a coalition) but instead of that Ramsay called a general election leading to a landslide Conservative government and the total obliteration of the Liberals.
1924 is probably the most important general election of the 20th century as it cemented the Con/Lab duopoly that lasted until 2010.
Comments
Let's look back to the end of October 2003, with just three months or so until the Iowa caucuses.
Howard Dean, a populist left winger from New England, with a consumer protection bent, was leading the polls with 29%. Eight points behind him was the elderly face of the establishment, House Majority Leader, Dick Gephardt on 21%.
There were then three candidates in single digits, but on 5% or more: Wesley Clark, John Kerry and John Edwards.
Six weeks later at the beginning of December, things had not changed much. Dean was 26%, Gephardt on 22%. Edwards had slipped back to 5%, while Kerry was marooned on 9%.
Then Iowa came around. Based on national polling, Dean was widely expected to win Iowa.
In reality, Dean came a distant third in Iowa, behind Edwards and Kerry.
And the contest became a fight between Edwards and Kerry - two candidates who had been twenty points off the pace before Iowa.
Back his deal or no confidence him. Don’t just block everything and not seek a path forward
Better than May ever achieved. Now let's see what price those who have blocked it will pay.
Not to mention the fact it's so cold dark and wet. And what if we get a big freeze?
He may as well have proposed to hold it on Boxing Day.....
I had assumed that negotiating a deal that had the backing of the Commons would be a huge advantage to Johnson going into an election. But perhaps I was underestimating the stupidity of a large group of Brexiteers.
If that poll were right, we'd be looking at a Labour-led government seeking to go back to the drawing board with Brexit.
Acres of newsprint for that.
I'm pretty sceptical about Biden's candidacy, too. But there is (as yet) no clear alternative moderate standard bearer who might appeal to all the constituencies which he does.
I could see circumstances where Warren's support blew up in a similar manner to Dean (though I don't think it will happen), but a Biden defeat would more likely be by slow erosion.
If I'm right, that makes a December 31st Brexit pretty damned tight, perhaps impossible: the only way it could happen is if the new parliament gets it done and dusted in the week before Christmas. Also it has to be ratified by the European parliament. So I think we're now out to a January Brexit, predicated on a Boris win.
Anyone see any holes in this reasoning?
I have a feeling people will be very surprised by how high the turnout is in this election.
"We happy few!"
He and his party's current leadership are totally losing it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tzqe5z1Jy_M
https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2019/10/23/new-marquette-law-school-poll-finds-increased-support-for-trump-impeachment-hearings-since-the-spring-while-opinions-about-trump-have-changed-little/
Boris is trying to get it passed again, but with even less chance of passing it. The ERG and he will have even less reason to stomach even a minor amendment to the bill, since they can try again later when they win.
In either case, it's feasible Brexit could go through in December.
(Sorry, bit triggered there..
I expect they will confirm the extension is to give time to hold a GE
If no election and failed deal, no deal is the end result
Jared O'Mara looks reasonable by comparison.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1187398835301158912
Anyway, you ain't seen NUFFINK yet if this rabble get in.
Have you seen what happens when there's1cm of snow on the roads ??
They need to say let the public decide on his deal .
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1187414822809489408?s=20
*well, the opposite of fear but you know what I mean.
Doubtless there's a masterful strategy behind it.
I laughed like a drain.
Feels like Boris has tried to tempt them into VONC him for awhile, took a break to get a deal, then tried to provoke them again.
Might work this time I guess.
This statement by Boris Johnson is not really about Brexit or an election - it's about regaining control or authority over events.
The worst thing for a Prime Minister is to appear to no longer be in control - Heath, Callaghan, Major, Brown, Cameron and May were all in their way undone at the point when it appeared they were no longer in charge and other forces whether it be the Unions or the markets or the electorate or the EU had effectively stripped them of that authority.
Last Saturday's Letwin Amendment did the same for Johnson - from the moment he became PM it was all about Brexit on 31/10 and this was as much a statement of authority as a statement of intent. Johnson was intent on taking back control of the agenda from parliament and the EU and controlling how we would leave, when and on what terms.
He failed.
Parliament took over last Saturday and effectively blocked his plan to leave on 31/10 and until this afternoon there's been drift. Now, Johnson is trying to regain control by playing his second card - an election - and hoping Labour are stupid enough to play ball but if they son't and he get 434 MPs to back him he again looks out of control with his authority severely damaged.
That's the beginning of the end for any Prime Minister.
Everyone knows this is about a Parliament too frightened to actually do anything except try and hold the PM hostage and blame him for everything. It is a policy that has clearly failed and the longer they go on with it the worse it will get for them.
As no doubt Charles will tell you.
Result of the December 1923 general election was Labour (extreme) minority government backed by Liberal confidence and supply arrangement.
Within 9 months the Liberals pulled the plug on the arrangment (thinking either Lab or Con would be desperate for a coalition) but instead of that Ramsay called a general election leading to a landslide Conservative government and the total obliteration of the Liberals.
1924 is probably the most important general election of the 20th century as it cemented the Con/Lab duopoly that lasted until 2010.