Well, I don't think I've ever seen such wild hysteria divorced from reality here.
I'm very much tempted by Betfair's "Meaningful Vote to pass in 2019?" market, currently at 1.41-1.48, on the basis that at the very worst this will happen after a general election, almost certainly this year.
If people can see scenarios where this doesn't happen, I'd be interested to hear the arguments.
First argument is how does a GE happen? Thanks to coalition government those who win elections lose control over calling date of early election to the losers. In other words win an election you are not gamekeeper, the Turkeys will need to vote for Christmas.
The Opposition is terrified of an election, terrified of even a simple yes or no vote in Parliament. What exactly does that tell you about their confidence in themselves?
And who’s leader was PM when the FTPA was passed? You helped make the new rules - you can’t complain when someone else uses them to their advantage.
The FTPA was actually the brainchild of .. the Lib Dems. Own it.
Why isn’t 2019 for next general election at something like 25 on Betfair? The route to it now looks highly implausible just as a matter of mechanics.
December is now 2.7, which I guess is the implied odds of the government falling in the next 10 days. Hasn’t that become somewhat more likely after today’s events?
The government falling does not lead automatically to or is even especially likely to lead to a general election.
Ah, so was that you who took my £20 at 2.9 earlier?
The chances of a 2019 election now look really quite distant now. With the DUP’s shift, there might yet be a fresh referendum before a general election, especially if Parliament gets to get the legislation before approving the deal.
I totally agree with you. Get on 2nd ref before both election and Brexit before it tightens.
Get on brexit never happening before it tightens.
The only betting issue is does confirmatory vote count as 2nd ref in all bets?
Betfair’s wording on its 2nd referendum market says that there needs to be a Remain option on the ballot “For clarity Yes will be settled as a winner if a Referendum is put to the people where one of the options is to remain a full member of the European Union. The other option/options must offer the alternative option to leave the European Union. This is irrespective of how many options are put on the ballot paper”
So does their Referendum or Election first market.
” For the purposes of this market an In/Out referendum is defined as a referendum put to the people where one of the options is to remain a full member of the European Union. The other option/options must offer the alternative option to leave the European Union. This is irrespective of how many options are put on the ballot paper.”
But remain as a term doesn’t exist anymore. When the confirmatory vote is published it will be governments deal v revoke. Revoke will be used not remain.
A “confirmatory vote” surely, by definition, has the question “should we progress this deal, yes or no?”
It will say progress deal v revoke. Lesson learned these pleblicites need clear outcomes. In your suggestion when result is no what the hell would that mean? 🥴
So not a confirmatory vote then, but a second referendum?
The Opposition is terrified of an election, terrified of even a simple yes or no vote in Parliament. What exactly does that tell you about their confidence in themselves?
And who’s leader was PM when the FTPA was passed? You helped make the new rules - you can’t complain when someone else uses them to their advantage.
Well, I don't think I've ever seen such wild hysteria divorced from reality here.
I'm very much tempted by Betfair's "Meaningful Vote to pass in 2019?" market, currently at 1.41-1.48, on the basis that at the very worst this will happen after a general election, almost certainly this year.
If people can see scenarios where this doesn't happen, I'd be interested to hear the arguments.
First argument is how does a GE happen? Thanks to coalition government those who win elections lose control over calling date of early election to the losers. In other words win an election you are not gamekeeper, the Turkeys will need to vote for Christmas.
GE not happening.
Second argument, which gives clearest answer to the big Brexit question, a GE or a deal v revoke ref? So much other in play in GE clearly not going to get a clear brexit answer from one.
I think the letter is irrelevant. The EU have seen this and will already be in discussion with the leaders and especially Varadkar and Macron who will be the big players
If I were Boris I'd soothe EU leaders' fears about a no deal Brexit by asking them to reject the extension requested by the Benn act, but say that I'd ask for one if the deal ultimately failed.
What you bet Boris is on the phone now to Macron and Varadkar discussing something similar. Boris has struck up a good relationship with both of them and I expect they will be pivotal in this whole saga
Now that Johnson has - it has to be admitted - united the Tory party behind a deal acceptable to the EU, I'm sure he will do whatever it takes to make it pass.
I'm sure he will be urging the EU not to reply speedily. Equally, I'm sure he will be urging them equally strongly to agree to an extension if needed for the deal to pass. Either a short extension if it can pass with the present House of Commons. Or an extension of 2-3 months for an election.
I don't believe he's such a fool that he would prefer a No Deal Brexit to a short extension to allow a deal to pass.
Well after that time to watch a bit of sport, relax and look forward to the EU Ambassadors meeting tomorrow.
Lots of argy bargy in the meantime but nothing will happen now before tomorrow
If nothing else today has seen the conservative party come closer together and that is the plus for me and why I will rejoin. We have to be a broad church
I think you are being over-optimistic on the Conservatives. Great for you, if you feel re-joining is right for you but the party is still split. All that has happened is a harder Brexit is on offer with the new deal...
Not really.
There are only Grieve, Greening and Bebb who are still rebels and Grieve is not going to be the conservative candidate, Bebb and Greening are not standing, so the party is healing and of course post next GE it will be euro sceptic but hopefully we will be in the transistion phase
It would be helpful if some people in the Conservative party are thinking about long term policies.
It should be evident to them that issues such as a balanced economy, a sustainable environment, affordable housing and intergenerational equality need to be looked at.
The Opposition is terrified of an election, terrified of even a simple yes or no vote in Parliament. What exactly does that tell you about their confidence in themselves?
And who’s leader was PM when the FTPA was passed? You helped make the new rules - you can’t complain when someone else uses them to their advantage.
FTPA was Clegg's idea.
I know. But he couldn’t have passed it without Cameron. When I joined the LDs I was asked whose image I wanted on my membership card. I asked for Charles Kennedy and got Nick Clegg. I nearly resigned there and then.
The Opposition is terrified of an election, terrified of even a simple yes or no vote in Parliament. What exactly does that tell you about their confidence in themselves?
And who’s leader was PM when the FTPA was passed? You helped make the new rules - you can’t complain when someone else uses them to their advantage.
FTPA was Clegg's idea.
I know. But he couldn’t have passed it without Cameron. When I joined the LDs I was asked whose image I wanted on my membership card. I asked for Charles Kennedy and got Nick Clegg. I nearly resigned there and then.
Am sure this has been answered before, but why couldn't the FTPA be repealed by a simple majority ?
The Opposition is terrified of an election, terrified of even a simple yes or no vote in Parliament. What exactly does that tell you about their confidence in themselves?
And who’s leader was PM when the FTPA was passed? You helped make the new rules - you can’t complain when someone else uses them to their advantage.
FTPA was Clegg's idea.
I know. But he couldn’t have passed it without Cameron. When I joined the LDs I was asked whose image I wanted on my membership card. I asked for Charles Kennedy and got Nick Clegg. I nearly resigned there and then.
Well, I don't think I've ever seen such wild hysteria divorced from reality here.
I'm very much tempted by Betfair's "Meaningful Vote to pass in 2019?" market, currently at 1.41-1.48, on the basis that at the very worst this will happen after a general election, almost certainly this year.
If people can see scenarios where this doesn't happen, I'd be interested to hear the arguments.
First argument is how does a GE happen? Thanks to coalition government those who win elections lose control over calling date of early election to the losers. In other words win an election you are not gamekeeper, the Turkeys will need to vote for Christmas.
GE not happening.
Second argument, which gives clearest answer to the big Brexit question, a GE or a deal v revoke ref? So much other in play in GE clearly not going to get a clear brexit answer from one.
Third argument, which is most risky for Boris political career? A deal v revoke plebiscite is certain to be close. A GE despite the current polls could go either way. 2015 polls pointed to Labour government during campaign it ended up Tory majority. An election this winter will be against backdrop of recession, NHS winter crisis, and Boris sex and favour scandal. Point to Corbyn unfavourably ratings if you want, there’s a lot of remainers unhappiness built into those. He looked less credible PM going into 2017 than he looks today and he enhanced himself during oxygen of publicity in that campaign.
In terms of risk to Boris career the 2nd ref is less risky than a GE.
The Opposition is terrified of an election, terrified of even a simple yes or no vote in Parliament. What exactly does that tell you about their confidence in themselves?
And who’s leader was PM when the FTPA was passed? You helped make the new rules - you can’t complain when someone else uses them to their advantage.
FTPA was Clegg's idea.
I know. But he couldn’t have passed it without Cameron. When I joined the LDs I was asked whose image I wanted on my membership card. I asked for Charles Kennedy and got Nick Clegg. I nearly resigned there and then.
Am sure this has been answered before, but why couldn't the FTPA be repealed by a simple majority ?
It would require primary legislation, going through both houses. There are also issues with restoring a Royal Perogative once it’s been removed by legislation.
If I were Boris I'd soothe EU leaders' fears about a no deal Brexit by asking them to reject the extension requested by the Benn act, but say that I'd ask for one if the deal ultimately failed.
What you bet Boris is on the phone now to Macron and Varadkar discussing something similar. Boris has struck up a good relationship with both of them and I expect they will be pivotal in this whole saga
Now that Johnson has - it has to be admitted - united the Tory party behind a deal acceptable to the EU, I'm sure he will do whatever it takes to make it pass.
I'm sure he will be urging the EU not to reply speedily. Equally, I'm sure he will be urging them equally strongly to agree to an extension if needed for the deal to pass. Either a short extension if it can pass with the present House of Commons. Or an extension of 2-3 months for an election.
I don't believe he's such a fool that he would prefer a No Deal Brexit to a short extension to allow a deal to pass.
I think the letter is irrelevant. The EU have seen this and will already be in discussion with the leaders and especially Varadkar and Macron who will be the big players
Those hoping "sending a letter" is massive humiliation stuff, that certainly won't now as he managed to get a new deal which totally shifted the optics.
The Opposition is terrified of an election, terrified of even a simple yes or no vote in Parliament. What exactly does that tell you about their confidence in themselves?
And who’s leader was PM when the FTPA was passed? You helped make the new rules - you can’t complain when someone else uses them to their advantage.
FTPA was Clegg's idea.
I know. But he couldn’t have passed it without Cameron. When I joined the LDs I was asked whose image I wanted on my membership card. I asked for Charles Kennedy and got Nick Clegg. I nearly resigned there and then.
Am sure this has been answered before, but why couldn't the FTPA be repealed by a simple majority ?
It would require primary legislation, going through both houses. There are also issues with restoring a Royal Perogative once it’s been removed by legislation.
It can be replaced by a simple majority. The prerogative issue can be dealt with by clear words restoring the status quo ante.
The Opposition is terrified of an election, terrified of even a simple yes or no vote in Parliament. What exactly does that tell you about their confidence in themselves?
And who’s leader was PM when the FTPA was passed? You helped make the new rules - you can’t complain when someone else uses them to their advantage.
FTPA was Clegg's idea.
I know. But he couldn’t have passed it without Cameron. When I joined the LDs I was asked whose image I wanted on my membership card. I asked for Charles Kennedy and got Nick Clegg. I nearly resigned there and then.
Am sure this has been answered before, but why couldn't the FTPA be repealed by a simple majority ?
It can but it’s a repeal of primary legislation so it has to go to the Lords too. Anyway no one has a majority...
If I were Boris I'd soothe EU leaders' fears about a no deal Brexit by asking them to reject the extension requested by the Benn act, but say that I'd ask for one if the deal ultimately failed.
What you bet Boris is on the phone now to Macron and Varadkar discussing something similar. Boris has struck up a good relationship with both of them and I expect they will be pivotal in this whole saga
Now that Johnson has - it has to be admitted - united the Tory party behind a deal acceptable to the EU, I'm sure he will do whatever it takes to make it pass.
I'm sure he will be urging the EU not to reply speedily. Equally, I'm sure he will be urging them equally strongly to agree to an extension if needed for the deal to pass. Either a short extension if it can pass with the present House of Commons. Or an extension of 2-3 months for an election.
I don't believe he's such a fool that he would prefer a No Deal Brexit to a short extension to allow a deal to pass.
Boris has no need for an extension, the deal can pass within the next week if the EU reject Parliament's extension.
And if for some unforeseen reason Boris decides a short technical extension is necessary then he can request it himself rather than relying upon Benn's Act.
The deal will pass. It might take a bit longer than 12 days. None of this is a problem.
No surprise arguments over the legislation?
If you are right then next week is going to be incredible bitter, as it will be the moment Remain finally loses. Through all this, a lot of people have never really thought we will exit, and no preparation will have prepared them for it happening.
Well, I don't think I've ever seen such wild hysteria divorced from reality here.
I'm very much tempted by Betfair's "Meaningful Vote to pass in 2019?" market, currently at 1.41-1.48, on the basis that at the very worst this will happen after a general election, almost certainly this year.
If people can see scenarios where this doesn't happen, I'd be interested to hear the arguments.
First argument is how does a GE happen? Thanks to coalition government those who win elections lose control over calling date of early election to the losers. In other words win an election you are not gamekeeper, the Turkeys will need to vote for Christmas.
GE not happening.
Second argument, which gives clearest answer to the big Brexit question, a GE or a deal v revoke ref? So much other in play in GE clearly not going to get a clear brexit answer from one.
Third argument, which is most risky for Boris political career? A deal v revoke plebiscite is certain to be close. A GE despite the current polls could go either way. 2015 polls pointed to Labour government during campaign it ended up Tory majority. An election this winter will be against backdrop of recession, NHS winter crisis, and Boris sex and favour scandal. Point to Corbyn unfavourably ratings if you want, there’s a lot of remainers unhappiness built into those. He looked less credible PM going into 2017 than he looks today and he enhanced himself during oxygen of publicity in that campaign.
In terms of risk to Boris career the 2nd ref is less risky than a GE.
Its not just risk but reward. Would Boris rather 2.5 more years without a working majority or would he rather a potential landslide majority before Corbyn gets replaced by someone electable?
Does anyone know where on Earth it takes the longest to get mail to Brussels? Asking for a friend.
The Boris Masterstroke: sending the extension letter to the EU by Yodel...
Now that's cruel!
It gets there five years later, stained, crumpled, and with the faint but distinctive odour of badger urine...
That's still better than if the letter was sent by Hermes. Despite Juncker being in his office he'd get a "You Were Out Card" saying that he'd missed his letter and it has been left in the trash bins outside.
Yep, the real unicorn-fellating Pollyannas du jour are those Leavers saying if only Brexit can be enacted everything can go back to normal. It contrasts oddly with their predictions of catastrophe if they don't get their way.
Unless I have misunderstood, and you mean YOUR comment is clearly humourous?
Where is the disqualification for the legions of privileged Daily Telegraph and Daily Mail journalists presenting themselves as tribunes of a working-class Brexit, I wonder ?
Unless I have misunderstood, and you mean YOUR comment is clearly humourous?
Where is the disqualification for the legions of privileged Daily Telegraph and Daily Mail journalists presenting themselves as tribunes of a working-class Brexit, I wonder ?
I thought that number included Letwin himself. So kind of unfair to frame it as moving from Letwin.
I have to say I am disappointed that they didn't just accept Letwin today and let the motion pass. It may have been one step back but it would have been about 5 steps forward and might have helped to reduce some of the mutual distrust.
Yep, the real unicorn-fellating Pollyannas du jour are those Leavers saying if only Brexit can be enacted everything can go back to normal. It contrasts oddly with their predictions of catastrophe if they don't get their way.
Anyone who think things will go back to normal, whatever option is picked, is selling a lie. Things have changed, even if we Remain things will not be the same. The most bizarre outcome would be we exit, then immediately elect the LDs on a manifesto pledge of rejoining.
We'll need to hear the details on this - my guess is it's "won't grant at next EU ambassador's meeting". If they really need to, they'll grant one on the 31st.
Probably enough to get a MV over the line next week … if it can avoid getting wrecked by the gajillion amendments Grieve and co are already plotting, the DUP's revenge, and a possible Vonc thrown in there for good measure
Well, I don't think I've ever seen such wild hysteria divorced from reality here.
I'm very much tempted by Betfair's "Meaningful Vote to pass in 2019?" market, currently at 1.41-1.48, on the basis that at the very worst this will happen after a general election, almost certainly this year.
If people can see scenarios where this doesn't happen, I'd be interested to hear the arguments.
First argument is how does a GE happen? Thanks to coalition government those who win elections lose control over calling date of early election to the losers. In other words win an election you are not gamekeeper, the Turkeys will need to vote for Christmas.
GE not happening.
Second argument, which gives clearest answer to the big Brexit question, a GE or a deal v revoke ref? So much other in play in GE clearly not going to get a clear brexit answer from one.
Third argument, which is most risky for Boris political career? A deal v revoke plebiscite is certain to be close. A GE despite the current polls could go either way. 2015 polls pointed to Labour government during campaign it ended up Tory majority. An election this winter will be against backdrop of recession, NHS winter crisis, and Boris sex and favour scandal. Point to Corbyn unfavourably ratings if you want, there’s a lot of remainers unhappiness built into those. He looked less credible PM going into 2017 than he looks today and he enhanced himself during oxygen of publicity in that campaign.
In terms of risk to Boris career the 2nd ref is less risky than a GE.
Its not just risk but reward. Would Boris rather 2.5 more years without a working majority or would he rather a potential landslide majority before Corbyn gets replaced by someone electable?
I agree with you. It’s a cross on a piece of paper. For. Against. Your argument and some more for and my arguments flagging up risk have a place in their respective columns facing off.
I thought that number included Letwin himself. So kind of unfair to frame it as moving from Letwin.
I have to say I am disappointed that they didn't just accept Letwin today and let the motion pass. It may have been one step back but it would have been about 5 steps forward and might have helped to reduce some of the mutual distrust.
Accepting the Grieve amendment would have been weird and voided completely any sort of count for the Gov't whips too.
They go into substantive votes with a good idea of numbers now.
We'll need to hear the details on this - my guess is it's "won't grant at next EU ambassador's meeting". If they really need to, they'll grant one on the 31st.
Probably enough to get a MV over the line next week …. if it can avoid getting wrecked by the gajillion amendments Grieve and co are already plotting.
The deal will pass. It might take a bit longer than 12 days. None of this is a problem.
No surprise arguments over the legislation?
If you are right then next week is going to be incredible bitter, as it will be the moment Remain finally loses. Through all this, a lot of people have never really thought we will exit, and no preparation will have prepared them for it happening.
Well, that is their problem. It’s been very clear we’re leaving for a long time and I cannot believe those MPs in the Commons today do not realise that. It’s done. The next bit is what matters.
Does anyone know where on Earth it takes the longest to get mail to Brussels? Asking for a friend.
The Boris Masterstroke: sending the extension letter to the EU by Yodel...
Now that's cruel!
It gets there five years later, stained, crumpled, and with the faint but distinctive odour of badger urine...
That's still better than if the letter was sent by Hermes. Despite Juncker being in his office he'd get a "You Were Out Card" saying that he'd missed his letter and it has been left in the trash bins outside.
Or he has to go to the sorting office in Bratislava to collect it.
I thought that number included Letwin himself. So kind of unfair to frame it as moving from Letwin.
I have to say I am disappointed that they didn't just accept Letwin today and let the motion pass. It may have been one step back but it would have been about 5 steps forward and might have helped to reduce some of the mutual distrust.
Accepting the Grieve amendment would have been weird and voided completely any sort of count for the Gov't whips too.
They go into substantive votes with a good idea of numbers now.
We'll need to hear the details on this - my guess is it's "won't grant at next EU ambassador's meeting". If they really need to, they'll grant one on the 31st.
Probably enough to get a MV over the line next week …. if it can avoid getting wrecked by the gajillion amendments Grieve and co are already plotting.
I thought that number included Letwin himself. So kind of unfair to frame it as moving from Letwin.
I have to say I am disappointed that they didn't just accept Letwin today and let the motion pass. It may have been one step back but it would have been about 5 steps forward and might have helped to reduce some of the mutual distrust.
Accepting the Grieve amendment would have been weird and voided completely any sort of count for the Gov't whips too.
They go into substantive votes with a good idea of numbers now.
We'll need to hear the details on this - my guess is it's "won't grant at next EU ambassador's meeting". If they really need to, they'll grant one on the 31st.
Probably enough to get a MV over the line next week …. if it can avoid getting wrecked by the gajillion amendments Grieve and co are already plotting.
If I were Boris I'd soothe EU leaders' fears about a no deal Brexit by asking them to reject the extension requested by the Benn act, but say that I'd ask for one if the deal ultimately failed.
What you bet Boris is on the phone now to Macron and Varadkar discussing something similar. Boris has struck up a good relationship with both of them and I expect they will be pivotal in this whole saga
Now that Johnson has - it has to be admitted - united the Tory party behind a deal acceptable to the EU, I'm sure he will do whatever it takes to make it pass.
I'm sure he will be urging the EU not to reply speedily. Equally, I'm sure he will be urging them equally strongly to agree to an extension if needed for the deal to pass. Either a short extension if it can pass with the present House of Commons. Or an extension of 2-3 months for an election.
I don't believe he's such a fool that he would prefer a No Deal Brexit to a short extension to allow a deal to pass.
Boris has no need for an extension, the deal can pass within the next week if the EU reject Parliament's extension.
And if for some unforeseen reason Boris decides a short technical extension is necessary then he can request it himself rather than relying upon Benn's Act.
I reckon the EU is unlikely to respond to Johnson's enforced request for an extension within the next week.
So if "for some unforeseen reason" Johnson needs an extension, it needn't be a question of his having refused one and then requesting another. Of course, from Johnson's own political perspective, that's all to the good. Better for him if he was forced to ask, than if he asked of his own accord.
Yep, the real unicorn-fellating Pollyannas du jour are those Leavers saying if only Brexit can be enacted everything can go back to normal. It contrasts oddly with their predictions of catastrophe if they don't get their way.
Anyone who think things will go back to normal, whatever option is picked, is selling a lie. Things have changed, even if we Remain things will not be the same. The most bizarre outcome would be we exit, then immediately elect the LDs on a manifesto pledge of rejoining.
Or there is a referendum to remain followed by a Brexit Party government that leaves with no deal.
IDS, the only one-time leader of a British political party who is even denser than Corbyn. Anything he says is highly likely to either be a lie or just misunderstanding due to his stupidity
Does anyone know where on Earth it takes the longest to get mail to Brussels? Asking for a friend.
The Boris Masterstroke: sending the extension letter to the EU by Yodel...
Now that's cruel!
It gets there five years later, stained, crumpled, and with the faint but distinctive odour of badger urine...
That's still better than if the letter was sent by Hermes. Despite Juncker being in his office he'd get a "You Were Out Card" saying that he'd missed his letter and it has been left in the trash bins outside.
Or he has to go to the sorting office in Bratislava to collect it.
Juncker: Mr. Prime Minister, you say you sent us the letter, but we do not have it yet?
Boris: Ah, here is the tracking number and the phone number for you to call. The former will tell you that it was posted from Victoria Street SW1, and the latter will keep you on hold for the next few weeks. Good luck!
It is clear that leaving the EU and the GFA are mutually exclusive.
Time to re-negotiate the GFA
Don't be bloody silly 4000 people died in the Troubles in Northern Ireland
It's you who is being silly.
The GFA was negotiated to solve a problem, based on the assumption that both the UK and the RoI were in the EU
The UK electorate has decided the UK will leave the EU
Consequently we need to come up with a new mechanism to achieve the outcome that the GFA had.
Paragraph 1. No
Paragraph 2. Yes
Paragraph 3. In an advisory capacity.
Paragraph 4. See Paragraph 2.
What do you mean by Para 4: yes?
The referendum may have been legally advisory, but from a practical, political and moral perspective it needs to be implemented.
Read Hobbes.
Indeed '...life of man is solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short' which may sum up that of our citizens post Brexit.
Hobbes insists on the fundamental equality of human beings. He maintains that the state is a contract between individuals, that the sovereign owes his authority to the will of those he governs and is obliged to protect the interests of the governed by assuring civil peace and security.
The deal will pass. It might take a bit longer than 12 days. None of this is a problem.
No surprise arguments over the legislation?
If you are right then next week is going to be incredible bitter, as it will be the moment Remain finally loses. Through all this, a lot of people have never really thought we will exit, and no preparation will have prepared them for it happening.
Well, that is their problem. It’s been very clear we’re leaving for a long time and I cannot believe those MPs in the Commons today do not realise that. It’s done. The next bit is what matters.
One of us has it wrong because I’m putting money on brexit never happening after today.
The political and business and EU establishment are managing this so Boris deal v revoke 2nd ref is only way out for government now that Boris and Cummings won’t no deal.
They proved they won’t no deal by surrendering to the EU in negotiation.
I sincerely hope that in the spirit with which he held his post that convention is dispensed with and Bercow is ignored for honours in perpetuity. Citizen Bercow must live amongst us as our equal, it's the right thing to do.
IDS, the only one-time leader of a British political party who is even denser than Corbyn. Anything he says is highly likely to either be a lie or just misunderstanding due to his stupidity
IDS telling us what Johnson says he's been told? The brain-dead recounting a story from a congenital liar?
Yep, the real unicorn-fellating Pollyannas du jour are those Leavers saying if only Brexit can be enacted everything can go back to normal. It contrasts oddly with their predictions of catastrophe if they don't get their way.
Absolutely. Leavers have you believe that if they do not get their way there will be septuagenarians rioting in the streets and making barricades with their bathchairs. It seem to have conveniently escaped their attention that approximately 50% of the population +/- a few points are very angry that they are not lowed to vote again now that there is something real nd tangible to vote on. Whatever the outcome 50% of the population will be pissed off. What a pointless waste of time the whole divisive exercise has been.
I sincerely hope that in the spirit with which he held his post that convention is dispensed with and Bercow is ignored for honours in perpetuity. Citizen Bercow must live amongst us as our equal, it's the right thing to do.
Lord Bercow of Government Procurement Card sends you best wishes.
I sincerely hope that in the spirit with which he held his post that convention is dispensed with and Bercow is ignored for honours in perpetuity. Citizen Bercow must live amongst us as our equal, it's the right thing to do.
If it is denied him then the next government that is not Tory will just give it to him anyway, so nothing will have been gained.
In any case, he may not want to take up a place in the Lords.
Yep, the real unicorn-fellating Pollyannas du jour are those Leavers saying if only Brexit can be enacted everything can go back to normal. It contrasts oddly with their predictions of catastrophe if they don't get their way.
Absolutely. Leavers have you believe that if they do not get their way there will be septuagenarians rioting in the streets and making barricades with their bathchairs. It seem to have conveniently escaped their attention that approximately 50% of the population +/- a few points are very angry that they are not lowed to vote again now that there is something real nd tangible to vote on. Whatever the outcome 50% of the population will be pissed off. What a pointless waste of time the whole divisive exercise has been.
I thought polls showed that about half of Remainers want them to get on with it, there's only a ~20% hardcore that insist on doing things like revoking.
I sincerely hope that in the spirit with which he held his post that convention is dispensed with and Bercow is ignored for honours in perpetuity. Citizen Bercow must live amongst us as our equal, it's the right thing to do.
If it is denied him then the next government that is not Tory will just give it to him anyway, so nothing will have been gained.
In any case, he may not want to take up a place in the Lords.
Surely he will have disappeared up his own arse long before that day comes?
Yep, the real unicorn-fellating Pollyannas du jour are those Leavers saying if only Brexit can be enacted everything can go back to normal. It contrasts oddly with their predictions of catastrophe if they don't get their way.
Anyone who think things will go back to normal, whatever option is picked, is selling a lie. Things have changed, even if we Remain things will not be the same. The most bizarre outcome would be we exit, then immediately elect the LDs on a manifesto pledge of rejoining.
Or there is a referendum to remain followed by a Brexit Party government that leaves with no deal.
Indeed. We could get some real strange outcomes, no matter what.
If the EU do make no extension noises this weekend then I anticipate a stampede to pass the WAIB all of a sudden
I don't believe it's at all dependent on threats from the EU any more.
It may not be a stampede, but now the Tory party has coalesced behind a deal agreed with the EU I think it is inevitable. If only we could be sure of the timing (i.e. by the end of the year) I think the betting markets would be offering free money.
If the EU do make no extension noises this weekend then I anticipate a stampede to pass the WAIB all of a sudden
I disagree. That signal from EU loosens the pressure on parliament and puts wind in remainer sails.
How? We no deal in 12 days and Benn has been used
🤗 no deal is off the table. Boris and Cummings won’t risk it, the big negotiation surrender proves this.
He got round of applause and pats on back from EU leaders for being surrender monkey and giving them what they wanted, they offered it two years ago and May and Boris both said no Conservative and unionist could agree to such a thing. He’s already surrendered far too much.
He surrendered because he hadn’t the bottle to no deal.
Yep, the real unicorn-fellating Pollyannas du jour are those Leavers saying if only Brexit can be enacted everything can go back to normal. It contrasts oddly with their predictions of catastrophe if they don't get their way.
Anyone who think things will go back to normal, whatever option is picked, is selling a lie. Things have changed, even if we Remain things will not be the same. The most bizarre outcome would be we exit, then immediately elect the LDs on a manifesto pledge of rejoining.
Or there is a referendum to remain followed by a Brexit Party government that leaves with no deal.
Indeed. We could get some real strange outcomes, no matter what.
Well parliamentary sovereignty was established a while back in the process so it doesn't matter what the public in aggregate think.
If the EU do make no extension noises this weekend then I anticipate a stampede to pass the WAIB all of a sudden
I don't believe it's at all dependent on threats from the EU any more.
It may not be a stampede, but now the Tory party has coalesced behind a deal agreed with the EU I think it is inevitable. If only we could be sure of the timing (i.e. by the end of the year) I think the betting markets would be offering free money.
The timing is Oct 31 without an extension. If MPs are really prepared to risk crashing out no deal it may go beyond, Halloween is strong favourite though
Yep, the real unicorn-fellating Pollyannas du jour are those Leavers saying if only Brexit can be enacted everything can go back to normal. It contrasts oddly with their predictions of catastrophe if they don't get their way.
Absolutely. Leavers have you believe that if they do not get their way there will be septuagenarians rioting in the streets and making barricades with their bathchairs. It seem to have conveniently escaped their attention that approximately 50% of the population +/- a few points are very angry that they are not lowed to vote again now that there is something real nd tangible to vote on. Whatever the outcome 50% of the population will be pissed off. What a pointless waste of time the whole divisive exercise has been.
I thought polls showed that about half of Remainers want them to get on with it, there's only a ~20% hardcore that insist on doing things like revoking.
Don't fall for the nostrum that Lib Dems can count...
I sincerely hope that in the spirit with which he held his post that convention is dispensed with and Bercow is ignored for honours in perpetuity. Citizen Bercow must live amongst us as our equal, it's the right thing to do.
If it is denied him then the next government that is not Tory will just give it to him anyway, so nothing will have been gained.
In any case, he may not want to take up a place in the Lords.
Surely he will have disappeared up his own arse long before that day comes?
No, he won't stop talking out of it for long enough for that to happen.
Worzel gummidge takes his plaudits from totally dispassionate admirers
Not quite sure where you get your "Worzel Gummidge" "witticism" from? Another Brexit supporting rib tickling quip eh? Actually Letwin is a dying breed in the Tory Party since the nutters took the ascendancy. Not just because he is not a headbanging EU-hater, but because he has a brain.
Expanding on a point someone made earlier - what do MPs do if there is no reply by Monday night, Tuesday night etc.? As I understand it the government are tabling the actual bill on Monday.
Worzel gummidge takes his plaudits from totally dispassionate admirers
Not quite sure where you get your "Worzel Gummidge" "witticism" from? Another Brexit supporting rib tickling quip eh? Actually Letwin is a dying breed in the Tory Party since the nutters took the ascendancy. Not just because he is not a headbanging EU-hater, but because he has a brain.
Yes the mastermind of poll tax and the ensuing riots. He looks like worzel gummidge, it's as simple as that, same way Francois is Penfold.
If the EU do make no extension noises this weekend then I anticipate a stampede to pass the WAIB all of a sudden
I don't believe it's at all dependent on threats from the EU any more.
It may not be a stampede, but now the Tory party has coalesced behind a deal agreed with the EU I think it is inevitable. If only we could be sure of the timing (i.e. by the end of the year) I think the betting markets would be offering free money.
The timing is Oct 31 without an extension. If MPs are really prepared to risk crashing out no deal it may go beyond, Halloween is strong favourite though
I don’t think you realise what’s happened in the last week and the hole Boris is in.
He surrendered to EU demands in order to avoid No Deal.
He might have had a commons majority for a deal today, but it could just as easily unwind now in coming days, AND IF SO the only way out for Boris is 2nd ref.
Expanding on a point someone made earlier - what do MPs do if there is no reply by Monday night, Tuesday night etc.? As I understand it the government are tabling the actual bill on Monday.
They either put their faith in a delay that may never come or grow a set and vote for the damn deal
Does anyone know where on Earth it takes the longest to get mail to Brussels? Asking for a friend.
The Boris Masterstroke: sending the extension letter to the EU by Yodel...
Now that's cruel!
It gets there five years later, stained, crumpled, and with the faint but distinctive odour of badger urine...
That's still better than if the letter was sent by Hermes. Despite Juncker being in his office he'd get a "You Were Out Card" saying that he'd missed his letter and it has been left in the trash bins outside.
Or he has to go to the sorting office in Bratislava to collect it.
Juncker: Mr. Prime Minister, you say you sent us the letter, but we do not have it yet?
Boris: Ah, here is the tracking number and the phone number for you to call. The former will tell you that it was posted from Victoria Street SW1, and the latter will keep you on hold for the next few weeks. Good luck!
Wrt the original question, I think that would be Port Lockroy, where the P/O is now closed until roughly Easter. As a Plan B, Pitcairn takes a couple of months.
Does the Benn Law actually prescribe a delivery date?
Would be gloriously stylish to send it by second from Lerwick if not.
I sincerely hope that in the spirit with which he held his post that convention is dispensed with and Bercow is ignored for honours in perpetuity. Citizen Bercow must live amongst us as our equal, it's the right thing to do.
Judging by the quality of your posts I doubt you are Bercow's equal in much, whether he is ennobled or not. Bercow is a bit of a preening prick, but he is actually a champion of the House of Commons, and for that reason he will be remembered positively
If the EU do make no extension noises this weekend then I anticipate a stampede to pass the WAIB all of a sudden
I don't believe it's at all dependent on threats from the EU any more.
It may not be a stampede, but now the Tory party has coalesced behind a deal agreed with the EU I think it is inevitable. If only we could be sure of the timing (i.e. by the end of the year) I think the betting markets would be offering free money.
The timing is Oct 31 without an extension. If MPs are really prepared to risk crashing out no deal it may go beyond, Halloween is strong favourite though
I don’t think you realise what’s happened in the last week and the hole Boris is in.
He surrendered to EU demands in order to avoid No Deal.
He might have had a commons majority for a deal today, but it could just as easily unwind now in coming days, AND IF SO the only way out for Boris is 2nd ref.
No, the way out is an election in which he demolishes the opposition
Given the Government;s weak Parliamentary position, there must be doubt as to its ability to control the passage of the WAIB .Whether relying on Programme Orders or a Guillotine Motion, without DUP support there is surely the potential to delay significantly.
Given the Government;s weak Parliamentary position, there must be doubt as to its ability to control the passage of the WAIB .Whether relying on Programme Orders or a Guillotine Motion, without DUP support there is surely the potential to delay significantly.
Yet more delays and silly games. I can see that being popular in the country.
Worzel gummidge takes his plaudits from totally dispassionate admirers
Not quite sure where you get your "Worzel Gummidge" "witticism" from? Another Brexit supporting rib tickling quip eh? Actually Letwin is a dying breed in the Tory Party since the nutters took the ascendancy. Not just because he is not a headbanging EU-hater, but because he has a brain.
An extremely small and pettifogging one, that couldn't see the big picture if it had a guided tour of the Louvre!
Comments
GE not happening.
The GFA was negotiated to solve a problem, based on the assumption that both the UK and the RoI were in the EU
The UK electorate has decided the UK will leave the EU
Consequently we need to come up with a new mechanism to achieve the outcome that the GFA had.
I'm sure he will be urging the EU not to reply speedily. Equally, I'm sure he will be urging them equally strongly to agree to an extension if needed for the deal to pass. Either a short extension if it can pass with the present House of Commons. Or an extension of 2-3 months for an election.
I don't believe he's such a fool that he would prefer a No Deal Brexit to a short extension to allow a deal to pass.
It should be evident to them that issues such as a balanced economy, a sustainable environment, affordable housing and intergenerational equality need to be looked at.
https://twitter.com/39_stephs/status/1185571331980566530
And 'he was asking for it'
https://twitter.com/harpohap/status/1185577784661499904
In terms of risk to Boris career the 2nd ref is less risky than a GE.
Paragraph 2. Yes
Paragraph 3. In an advisory capacity.
Paragraph 4. See Paragraph 2.
The referendum may have been legally advisory, but from a practical, political and moral perspective it needs to be implemented.
Read Hobbes.
And if for some unforeseen reason Boris decides a short technical extension is necessary then he can request it himself rather than relying upon Benn's Act.
If you are right then next week is going to be incredible bitter, as it will be the moment Remain finally loses. Through all this, a lot of people have never really thought we will exit, and no preparation will have prepared them for it happening.
"Williams attended the independent Godolphin and Latymer School girls' school and read Modern History at Lincoln College, Oxford."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoe_Williams
Unless I have misunderstood, and you mean YOUR comment is clearly humourous?
Allowing Olly Letwin to get involved was probably a requirement of No Deal happening.
I have to say I am disappointed that they didn't just accept Letwin today and let the motion pass. It may have been one step back but it would have been about 5 steps forward and might have helped to reduce some of the mutual distrust.
Probably enough to get a MV over the line next week … if it can avoid getting wrecked by the gajillion amendments Grieve and co are already plotting, the DUP's revenge, and a possible Vonc thrown in there for good measure
They go into substantive votes with a good idea of numbers now.
The next lot of amendments will come from Grieve I expect not Letwin, he's gone as far as he'd like on the remain train now.
(Shrugs) he’s French
Worzel gummidge takes his plaudits from totally dispassionate admirers
So if "for some unforeseen reason" Johnson needs an extension, it needn't be a question of his having refused one and then requesting another. Of course, from Johnson's own political perspective, that's all to the good. Better for him if he was forced to ask, than if he asked of his own accord.
Boris: Ah, here is the tracking number and the phone number for you to call. The former will tell you that it was posted from Victoria Street SW1, and the latter will keep you on hold for the next few weeks. Good luck!
https://oyc.yale.edu/political-science/plsc-114/lecture-12
The political and business and EU establishment are managing this so Boris deal v revoke 2nd ref is only way out for government now that Boris and Cummings won’t no deal.
They proved they won’t no deal by surrendering to the EU in negotiation.
Citizen Bercow must live amongst us as our equal, it's the right thing to do.
Is that the absolute definition of unreliability?
In any case, he may not want to take up a place in the Lords.
It may not be a stampede, but now the Tory party has coalesced behind a deal agreed with the EU I think it is inevitable. If only we could be sure of the timing (i.e. by the end of the year) I think the betting markets would be offering free money.
He got round of applause and pats on back from EU leaders for being surrender monkey and giving them what they wanted, they offered it two years ago and May and Boris both said no Conservative and unionist could agree to such a thing. He’s already surrendered far too much.
He surrendered because he hadn’t the bottle to no deal.
He looks like worzel gummidge, it's as simple as that, same way Francois is Penfold.
He surrendered to EU demands in order to avoid No Deal.
He might have had a commons majority for a deal today, but it could just as easily unwind now in coming days, AND IF SO the only way out for Boris is 2nd ref.
Does the Benn Law actually prescribe a delivery date?
Would be gloriously stylish to send it by second from Lerwick if not.
I put the majority for Boris’s Deal at somewhere between -2 and +10.
He should be happy, even if we’ve managed to avoid a Boris Bounce.
Let’s just allow Parliament to do its job and scrutinise the WA, as if, you know, we were grown up democracy?
At this stage we surely either Brexit sooner or, perhaps after an election, later.