BoZo sacked 21 of his backbenchers, and lost every crucial vote.
He shafted the DUP, and got kneecapped.
What a "winner"...
Ironically he has just united the party and there are only a few now who are on the outside
DUP and the union under the bus, judges in the dock, moderates purged, business can go fuck itself, a pillar of conservatism our nation needs is crumbling in all this
Technically speaking the amendment doesn't require him to send a letter does it, just that the amendment means the Benn Act has not been superceded and so must be complied with by sending a letter? Approving the amendment has that same effect, but was not itself officially about him needing to send any letter?
Am I missing something? We have a deal agreed. Parliament needs to debate this and then vote on it. The Lords is another matter. Can't this be managed by the 31st?
Maybe. But after arguing that a MV was needed to approve a deal parliament now says a MV is not enough. I guess the drafting of the amendment putting a MV in was not as superbly crafted as claimed.
This is nothing new. Parliament ALWAYS had to approve the legislation. The MW vote was just an extra.
Yes it had to approve the legislation at some point, but the MV had a purpose, which they've now effectively said it should not have had.
This is what happens when the executive tries to railroad the legislature.
No sympathy whatsoever.
On the contrary, what we’ve been watching is what happens when the legislature tries to railroad the executive.
That is their job. Parliament was directly elected, not the Government.
The delicate balance between the roles of legislature and executive has been messed around with by the legislature, aided by a partisan Speaker and a very poorly worded piece of legislation from eight years ago.
You sack 21 of your own team and then throw the rather hard nosed people propping up your Government under a bus. Did he really think his posh affable eccentric oaf thing would work on Arlene Foster and a group of people with very little to lose and every reason to hate him viscerally?
imo this all comes down to the border. The one in NI not the Irish Sea. Reality hit Boris like it hit May and everyone else. The UK government simply cannot (imo again) embark upon a path whereby the result could be a hard border in NI. Hence just about anything, and certainly including the actions you described, were preferable to that.
Yes. That makes sense. But it also means that the U.K., as it is currently constituted, cannot leave the EU, or at least the Customs Union.
Surely there arent the numbers regardless? How many of the independent tories prefer a referendum to a deal? And Labour have a fair few who would be against.
Dream on. This whole thing is being kettled into 2nd ref.
It’s not going to happen. There aren’t the numbers.
This is what happens when the executive tries to railroad the legislature.
No sympathy whatsoever.
On the contrary, what we’ve been watching is what happens when the legislature tries to railroad the executive.
That is their job. Parliament was directly elected, not the Government.
The delicate balance between the roles of legislature and executive has been messed around with by the legislature, aided by a partisan Speaker and a very poorly worded piece of legislation from eight years ago.
So? British Governments being constrained by the legislature is only a function of not having a majority. Blame the public if you will.
Exactly. What is hiding in the bill that is so controversial?
I doubt there's anything controversial that people are not aware of the general intent of it being included, it's just that it will be a much trickier passage to get legislation through than a MV, with amendments on this and that.
If Boris ever wins a majority, I hope he stacks the constitutional deck so far in favour of the Tories that the opposition won't see daylight for a hundred years. If one side wants to play silly games, then so can the other.
So how would that work?
Just wait and see.
“...I will do such things— What they are, yet I know not, but they shall be. The terrors of the earth!”
Not so much “never never never never” as “never never never never never”.
Exactly. What is hiding in the bill that is so controversial?
I doubt there's anything controversial that people are not aware of the general intent of it being included, it's just that it will be a much trickier passage to get legislation through than a MV, with amendments on this and that.
But that’s true regardless of whether there is a MV or not.
Either he's playing the word 'negotiate" and having a few hours of childish playabout before sending, or he's really going to go for the martyr option.
Boris is a person who's almost never had to face the consequences of decisions and evaded responsibility across his life, let alone never enduring privations outside his class, so I find it incredibly hard to believe he'd be happy to accept the prison diet and interior design arrangements.
A pretty-boy-babe-magnet like Boris will go down well at shower time in the Scrubs!
Bercow will rule on Monday whether that is in order or not (Same vote on same thing in same session)
What about that Scots legal decision? Where does Boris stand with that? Are we going to see Lothians Police turning up in Downing Street with a warrant? If so what should the Met do?
Why isn’t 2019 for next general election at something like 25 on Betfair? The route to it now looks highly implausible just as a matter of mechanics.
December is now 2.7, which I guess is the implied odds of the government falling in the next 10 days. Hasn’t that become somewhat more likely after today’s events?
Exactly. What is hiding in the bill that is so controversial?
I doubt there's anything controversial that people are not aware of the general intent of it being included, it's just that it will be a much trickier passage to get legislation through than a MV, with amendments on this and that.
It might be as simple as, the bill will make Brexit concrete. It's survived this far by being a blank sheet that the left behind, the global financial elite and Spectator-reading members of golf clubs can unite around. EU membership prevents things they'd like, so Brexit is a step to what they'd like. But a concrete Brexit will please some and not others. Then the votes become harder to win.
This is what happens when the executive tries to railroad the legislature.
No sympathy whatsoever.
On the contrary, what we’ve been watching is what happens when the legislature tries to railroad the executive.
That is their job. Parliament was directly elected, not the Government.
The delicate balance between the roles of legislature and executive has been messed around with by the legislature, aided by a partisan Speaker and a very poorly worded piece of legislation from eight years ago.
So? British Governments being constrained by the legislature is only a function of not having a majority. Blame the public if you will.
The public voted for MPs self-described platforms. They can't be blamed for MPs lying to get elected.
So all the stuff about just wanting to avoid No Deal was bullshit. After months of demanding a deal, they finally get one and they still keep us in the EU. It is astonishing contempt for the public. The next General Election should rightfully end careers.
All elections end careers. It’s whose careers that’s in question
This is what happens when the executive tries to railroad the legislature.
No sympathy whatsoever.
On the contrary, what we’ve been watching is what happens when the legislature tries to railroad the executive.
That is their job. Parliament was directly elected, not the Government.
The delicate balance between the roles of legislature and executive has been messed around with by the legislature, aided by a partisan Speaker and a very poorly worded piece of legislation from eight years ago.
So? British Governments being constrained by the legislature is only a function of not having a majority. Blame the public if you will.
The public voted for MPs self-described platforms. They can't be blamed for MPs lying to get elected.
Why isn’t 2019 for next general election at something like 25 on Betfair? The route to it now looks highly implausible just as a matter of mechanics.
December is now 2.7, which I guess is the implied odds of the government falling in the next 10 days. Hasn’t that become somewhat more likely after today’s events?
The government falling does not lead automatically to or is even especially likely to lead to a general election.
Exactly. What is hiding in the bill that is so controversial?
I doubt there's anything controversial that people are not aware of the general intent of it being included, it's just that it will be a much trickier passage to get legislation through than a MV, with amendments on this and that.
But that’s true regardless of whether there is a MV or not.
Then why did Grieve throw a wobbler about it in the first place?
If Boris ever wins a majority, I hope he stacks the constitutional deck so far in favour of the Tories that the opposition won't see daylight for a hundred years. If one side wants to play silly games, then so can the other.
President Putin and fellow travellers sends you warm greetings.
So all the stuff about just wanting to avoid No Deal was bullshit. After months of demanding a deal, they finally get one and they still keep us in the EU. It is astonishing contempt for the public. The next General Election should rightfully end careers.
All elections end careers. It’s whose careers that’s in question
The utter fools refusing to pass a deal after 3 godawful years. If Boris gets a GE before he gets Brexit, he should use every particle of populism, every carrot, every stick, every damned trick in the book, to sweep them out of Parliament.
Exactly. What is hiding in the bill that is so controversial?
I doubt there's anything controversial that people are not aware of the general intent of it being included, it's just that it will be a much trickier passage to get legislation through than a MV, with amendments on this and that.
But that’s true regardless of whether there is a MV or not.
Then why did Grieve throw a wobbler about it in the first place?
Because it removes the safety net preventing no deal. Replacing which was the point of the Letwin amendment.
The real question is - How much will have to offer Ireland to take Northern Ireland off our hands.
How about a Meaningful Vote next week to kick NI out of the UK. I suspect it would get a thumping majority!
Tell Nicola she can have Independence, and as bonus, she gets James VI's plantations as well.
A lot of the Brexit mess would have been avoided if the referendum had been on England leaving two Unions - the UK and the EU. It's what English Nationalists want.
Of course Boris was happy to be forced into a general election just a few weeks ago. Why not just sign the letter, get the 3 month extension, get the GE. He's probably in a better place for a GE having tried and failed to pass a deal than not trying for any deal at all.
So all the stuff about just wanting to avoid No Deal was bullshit. After months of demanding a deal, they finally get one and they still keep us in the EU. It is astonishing contempt for the public. The next General Election should rightfully end careers.
All elections end careers. It’s whose careers that’s in question
The utter fools refusing to pass a deal after 3 godawful years. If Boris gets a GE before he gets Brexit, he should use every particle of populism, every carrot, every stick, every damned trick in the book, to sweep them out of Parliament.
From your moniker I’m assuming you’re a Tory? This Parliament exists as a result of an election your party called and your party made an absolute hash of. Your party. You don’t get to absolve yourself of that responsibility just through a change of leader. You chose all the leaders who have precipitated this mess. It’s all your making.
Surely there arent the numbers regardless? How many of the independent tories prefer a referendum to a deal? And Labour have a fair few who would be against.
Dream on. This whole thing is being kettled into 2nd ref.
It’s not going to happen. There aren’t the numbers.
It becomes the only option left, only use of an extension, Boris’ Wonderful deal v revoke. There’s no such thing as remain anymore the word has morphed into revoke and revokers the second Boris published his deal.
The real question is - How much will have to offer Ireland to take Northern Ireland off our hands.
How about a Meaningful Vote next week to kick NI out of the UK. I suspect it would get a thumping majority!
Tell Nicola she can have Independence, and as bonus, she gets James VI's plantations as well.
A lot of the Brexit mess would have been avoided if the referendum had been on England leaving two Unions - the UK and the EU. It's what English Nationalists want.
The route to England joining the Euro passes through the break up of the UK.
Why isn’t 2019 for next general election at something like 25 on Betfair? The route to it now looks highly implausible just as a matter of mechanics.
December is now 2.7, which I guess is the implied odds of the government falling in the next 10 days. Hasn’t that become somewhat more likely after today’s events?
The government falling does not lead automatically to or is even especially likely to lead to a general election.
Ah, so was that you who took my £20 at 2.9 earlier?
Why isn’t 2019 for next general election at something like 25 on Betfair? The route to it now looks highly implausible just as a matter of mechanics.
December is now 2.7, which I guess is the implied odds of the government falling in the next 10 days. Hasn’t that become somewhat more likely after today’s events?
The government falling does not lead automatically to or is even especially likely to lead to a general election.
Ah, so was that you who took my £20 at 2.9 earlier?
The chances of a 2019 election now look really quite distant now. With the DUP’s shift, there might yet be a fresh referendum before a general election, especially if Parliament gets to get the legislation before approving the deal.
So all the stuff about just wanting to avoid No Deal was bullshit. After months of demanding a deal, they finally get one and they still keep us in the EU. It is astonishing contempt for the public. The next General Election should rightfully end careers.
All elections end careers. It’s whose careers that’s in question
The utter fools refusing to pass a deal after 3 godawful years. If Boris gets a GE before he gets Brexit, he should use every particle of populism, every carrot, every stick, every damned trick in the book, to sweep them out of Parliament.
From your moniker I’m assuming you’re a Tory? This Parliament exists as a result of an election your party called and your party made an absolute hash of. Your party. You don’t get to absolve yourself of that responsibility just through a change of leader. You chose all the leaders who have precipitated this mess. It’s all your making.
Actually it's all the making of the electorate, who first voted for Brexit one year, then crippled the ability of the Government to implement it the next. Then there's the refusal of the opposition to do anything other than delay, with the result that Brexit can win a referendum, and the Tories an election, but the policy can never reach implementation.
The real question is - How much will have to offer Ireland to take Northern Ireland off our hands.
It will cost Dublin 12billion because that’s is what London gives every year (higher than what it gives EU for membership) so we need to bung them upward of that
The real question is - How much will have to offer Ireland to take Northern Ireland off our hands.
It will cost Dublin 12billion because that’s is what London gives every year (higher than what it gives EU for membership) so we need to bung them upward of that
I think Boris just found a whopping 12 billion in tax cuts for Middle England!
The real question is - How much will have to offer Ireland to take Northern Ireland off our hands.
It will cost Dublin 12billion because that’s is what London gives every year (higher than what it gives EU for membership) so we need to bung them upward of that
I think Boris just found a whopping 12 billion in tax cuts for Middle England!
He's got to pay for them Tazors first.
Odds JBriskinindyref2 gets zapped before "Brexit is done" 2/1
Why isn’t 2019 for next general election at something like 25 on Betfair? The route to it now looks highly implausible just as a matter of mechanics.
December is now 2.7, which I guess is the implied odds of the government falling in the next 10 days. Hasn’t that become somewhat more likely after today’s events?
The government falling does not lead automatically to or is even especially likely to lead to a general election.
Ah, so was that you who took my £20 at 2.9 earlier?
The chances of a 2019 election now look really quite distant now. With the DUP’s shift, there might yet be a fresh referendum before a general election, especially if Parliament gets to get the legislation before approving the deal.
I totally agree with you. Get on 2nd ref before both election and Brexit before it tightens.
Get on brexit never happening before it tightens.
The only betting issue is does confirmatory vote count as 2nd ref in all bets?
So all the stuff about just wanting to avoid No Deal was bullshit. After months of demanding a deal, they finally get one and they still keep us in the EU. It is astonishing contempt for the public. The next General Election should rightfully end careers.
All elections end careers. It’s whose careers that’s in question
The utter fools refusing to pass a deal after 3 godawful years. If Boris gets a GE before he gets Brexit, he should use every particle of populism, every carrot, every stick, every damned trick in the book, to sweep them out of Parliament.
From your moniker I’m assuming you’re a Tory? This Parliament exists as a result of an election your party called and your party made an absolute hash of. Your party. You don’t get to absolve yourself of that responsibility just through a change of leader. You chose all the leaders who have precipitated this mess. It’s all your making.
Actually it's all the making of the electorate, who first voted for Brexit one year, then crippled the ability of the Government to implement it the next. Then there's the refusal of the opposition to do anything other than delay, with the result that Brexit can win a referendum, and the Tories an election, but the policy can never reach implementation.
There was no need for the 2017 election. It was your leader’s own hubris that led to it - and the very situation you complain of. That catastrophic mistake followed on from the previous leader of your party failing to plan a route for the country if it voted leave in a binary vote he himself called. And today? Down to your latest leader kicking out 21 of his own party and throwing the DUP under a bus. This whole mess is down to a series of disasterous decisions by your own party’s leadership. Own it.
Surely there arent the numbers regardless? How many of the independent tories prefer a referendum to a deal? And Labour have a fair few who would be against.
Dream on. This whole thing is being kettled into 2nd ref.
It’s not going to happen. There aren’t the numbers.
Remainers have very little time to agree on something or Boris will manage to pass the WAIB. What else is there?
Well after that time to watch a bit of sport, relax and look forward to the EU Ambassadors meeting tomorrow.
Lots of argy bargy in the meantime but nothing will happen now before tomorrow
If nothing else today has seen the conservative party come closer together and that is the plus for me and why I will rejoin. We have to be a broad church
Why isn’t 2019 for next general election at something like 25 on Betfair? The route to it now looks highly implausible just as a matter of mechanics.
December is now 2.7, which I guess is the implied odds of the government falling in the next 10 days. Hasn’t that become somewhat more likely after today’s events?
The government falling does not lead automatically to or is even especially likely to lead to a general election.
Ah, so was that you who took my £20 at 2.9 earlier?
The chances of a 2019 election now look really quite distant now. With the DUP’s shift, there might yet be a fresh referendum before a general election, especially if Parliament gets to get the legislation before approving the deal.
I totally agree with you. Get on 2nd ref before both election and Brexit before it tightens.
Get on brexit never happening before it tightens.
The only betting issue is does confirmatory vote count as 2nd ref in all bets?
Betfair’s wording on its 2nd referendum market says that there needs to be a Remain option on the ballot “For clarity Yes will be settled as a winner if a Referendum is put to the people where one of the options is to remain a full member of the European Union. The other option/options must offer the alternative option to leave the European Union. This is irrespective of how many options are put on the ballot paper”
So does their Referendum or Election first market.
” For the purposes of this market an In/Out referendum is defined as a referendum put to the people where one of the options is to remain a full member of the European Union. The other option/options must offer the alternative option to leave the European Union. This is irrespective of how many options are put on the ballot paper.”
Peoples vote showing their true colours harassing Rees moggs young son and screaming in MPs faces
There are arseholes on both sides of Brexit. Just ignore them, you give them publicity, which is what they want by acknologing them.
I thought about going on the people' march but the possibility of confrontation by those who want Brexit put me off. Reasoned debate should be the order of the day, not unpleasant confrontation...
If I were Boris I'd soothe EU leaders' fears about a no deal Brexit by asking them to reject the extension requested by the Benn act, but say that I'd ask for one if the deal ultimately failed.
Labour Party member Martin Bridgman shared offensive cartoons of Jesus and Mohammed, including ones that alluded to child rape.
At least four of the comic strips were posted on his Facebook page between November 2018 and March 2019, but only uncovered three months ago when a Muslim member of his local Labour party in Ilford, east London, reported them to party officials.
The Opposition is terrified of an election, terrified of even a simple yes or no vote in Parliament. What exactly does that tell you about their confidence in themselves?
Why isn’t 2019 for next general election at something like 25 on Betfair? The route to it now looks highly implausible just as a matter of mechanics.
December is now 2.7, which I guess is the implied odds of the government falling in the next 10 days. Hasn’t that become somewhat more likely after today’s events?
The government falling does not lead automatically to or is even especially likely to lead to a general election.
Ah, so was that you who took my £20 at 2.9 earlier?
The chances of a 2019 election now look really quite distant now. With the DUP’s shift, there might yet be a fresh referendum before a general election, especially if Parliament gets to get the legislation before approving the deal.
I totally agree with you. Get on 2nd ref before both election and Brexit before it tightens.
Get on brexit never happening before it tightens.
The only betting issue is does confirmatory vote count as 2nd ref in all bets?
Betfair’s wording on its 2nd referendum market says that there needs to be a Remain option on the ballot “For clarity Yes will be settled as a winner if a Referendum is put to the people where one of the options is to remain a full member of the European Union. The other option/options must offer the alternative option to leave the European Union. This is irrespective of how many options are put on the ballot paper”
So does their Referendum or Election first market.
” For the purposes of this market an In/Out referendum is defined as a referendum put to the people where one of the options is to remain a full member of the European Union. The other option/options must offer the alternative option to leave the European Union. This is irrespective of how many options are put on the ballot paper.”
But remain as a term doesn’t exist anymore. When the confirmatory vote is published it will be governments deal v revoke. Revoke will be used not remain.
Why isn’t 2019 for next general election at something like 25 on Betfair? The route to it now looks highly implausible just as a matter of mechanics.
December is now 2.7, which I guess is the implied odds of the government falling in the next 10 days. Hasn’t that become somewhat more likely after today’s events?
The government falling does not lead automatically to or is even especially likely to lead to a general election.
Ah, so was that you who took my £20 at 2.9 earlier?
The chances of a 2019 election now look really quite distant now. With the DUP’s shift, there might yet be a fresh referendum before a general election, especially if Parliament gets to get the legislation before approving the deal.
I totally agree with you. Get on 2nd ref before both election and Brexit before it tightens.
Get on brexit never happening before it tightens.
The only betting issue is does confirmatory vote count as 2nd ref in all bets?
Betfair’s wording on its 2nd referendum market says that there needs to be a Remain option on the ballot “For clarity Yes will be settled as a winner if a Referendum is put to the people where one of the options is to remain a full member of the European Union. The other option/options must offer the alternative option to leave the European Union. This is irrespective of how many options are put on the ballot paper”
So does their Referendum or Election first market.
” For the purposes of this market an In/Out referendum is defined as a referendum put to the people where one of the options is to remain a full member of the European Union. The other option/options must offer the alternative option to leave the European Union. This is irrespective of how many options are put on the ballot paper.”
But remain as a term doesn’t exist anymore. When the confirmatory vote is published it will be governments deal v revoke. Revoke will be used not remain.
Well after that time to watch a bit of sport, relax and look forward to the EU Ambassadors meeting tomorrow.
Lots of argy bargy in the meantime but nothing will happen now before tomorrow
If nothing else today has seen the conservative party come closer together and that is the plus for me and why I will rejoin. We have to be a broad church
I think you are being over-optimistic on the Conservatives. Great for you, if you feel re-joining is right for you but the party is still split. All that has happened is a harder Brexit is on offer with the new deal...
If I were Boris I'd soothe EU leaders' fears about a no deal Brexit by asking them to reject the extension requested by the Benn act, but say that I'd ask for one if the deal ultimately failed.
What you bet Boris is on the phone now to Macron and Varadkar discussing something similar. Boris has struck up a good relationship with both of them and I expect they will be pivotal in this whole saga
Why isn’t 2019 for next general election at something like 25 on Betfair? The route to it now looks highly implausible just as a matter of mechanics.
December is now 2.7, which I guess is the implied odds of the government falling in the next 10 days. Hasn’t that become somewhat more likely after today’s events?
The government falling does not lead automatically to or is even especially likely to lead to a general election.
Ah, so was that you who took my £20 at 2.9 earlier?
The chances of a 2019 election now look really quite distant now. With the DUP’s shift, there might yet be a fresh referendum before a general election, especially if Parliament gets to get the legislation before approving the deal.
I totally agree with you. Get on 2nd ref before both election and Brexit before it tightens.
Get on brexit never happening before it tightens.
The only betting issue is does confirmatory vote count as 2nd ref in all bets?
Betfair’s wording on its 2nd referendum market says that there needs to be a Remain option on the ballot “For clarity Yes will be settled as a winner if a Referendum is put to the people where one of the options is to remain a full member of the European Union. The other option/options must offer the alternative option to leave the European Union. This is irrespective of how many options are put on the ballot paper”
So does their Referendum or Election first market.
” For the purposes of this market an In/Out referendum is defined as a referendum put to the people where one of the options is to remain a full member of the European Union. The other option/options must offer the alternative option to leave the European Union. This is irrespective of how many options are put on the ballot paper.”
But remain as a term doesn’t exist anymore. When the confirmatory vote is published it will be governments deal v revoke. Revoke will be used not remain.
A “confirmatory vote” surely, by definition, has the question “should we progress this deal, yes or no?”
If I were Boris I'd soothe EU leaders' fears about a no deal Brexit by asking them to reject the extension requested by the Benn act, but say that I'd ask for one if the deal ultimately failed.
What you bet Boris is on the phone now to Macron and Varadkar discussing something similar. Boris has struck up a good relationship with both of them and I expect they will be pivotal in this whole saga
I would personally be shocked if they haven't already discussed this potential outcome.
If I were Boris I'd soothe EU leaders' fears about a no deal Brexit by asking them to reject the extension requested by the Benn act, but say that I'd ask for one if the deal ultimately failed.
What you bet Boris is on the phone now to Macron and Varadkar discussing something similar. Boris has struck up a good relationship with both of them and I expect they will be pivotal in this whole saga
I would personally be shocked if they haven't already discussed this potential outcome.
The initial reaction to his deal was that it would be tricky for it to be passed, so I'm sure that is true - they are not dumb enough to have believed it would definitely pass, even if they and Boris hoped it would.
The Opposition is terrified of an election, terrified of even a simple yes or no vote in Parliament. What exactly does that tell you about their confidence in themselves?
Remain fundamentalism is grounded in hatred.
The underlying mentality is "people like them should not be telling people like me what to do".
As an example look at the hatred spewed against Caroline Flint earlier.
If I were Boris I'd soothe EU leaders' fears about a no deal Brexit by asking them to reject the extension requested by the Benn act, but say that I'd ask for one if the deal ultimately failed.
What you bet Boris is on the phone now to Macron and Varadkar discussing something similar. Boris has struck up a good relationship with both of them and I expect they will be pivotal in this whole saga
I would personally be shocked if they haven't already discussed this potential outcome.
I agree; I think this is why we had the comments from both of them yesterday. Tomorrow might bring forth a few more.
Why isn’t 2019 for next general election at something like 25 on Betfair? The route to it now looks highly implausible just as a matter of mechanics.
December is now 2.7, which I guess is the implied odds of the government falling in the next 10 days. Hasn’t that become somewhat more likely after today’s events?
The government falling does not lead automatically to or is even especially likely to lead to a general election.
Ah, so was that you who took my £20 at 2.9 earlier?
The chances of a 2019 election now look really quite distant now. With the DUP’s shift, there might yet be a fresh referendum before a general election, especially if Parliament gets to get the legislation before approving the deal.
I totally agree with you. Get on 2nd ref before both election and Brexit before it tightens.
Get on brexit never happening before it tightens.
The only betting issue is does confirmatory vote count as 2nd ref in all bets?
Betfair’s wording on its 2nd referendum market says that there needs to be a Remain option on the ballot “For clarity Yes will be settled as a winner if a Referendum is put to the people where one of the options is to remain a full member of the European Union. The other option/options must offer the alternative option to leave the European Union. This is irrespective of how many options are put on the ballot paper”
So does their Referendum or Election first market.
” For the purposes of this market an In/Out referendum is defined as a referendum put to the people where one of the options is to remain a full member of the European Union. The other option/options must offer the alternative option to leave the European Union. This is irrespective of how many options are put on the ballot paper.”
But remain as a term doesn’t exist anymore. When the confirmatory vote is published it will be governments deal v revoke. Revoke will be used not remain.
A “confirmatory vote” surely, by definition, has the question “should we progress this deal, yes or no?”
It's just a name. A misleading one. I call it a second referendum and support it on that basis, not a marketing gimmick of a name.
Well, I don't think I've ever seen such wild hysteria divorced from reality here.
I'm very much tempted by Betfair's "Meaningful Vote to pass in 2019?" market, currently at 1.41-1.48, on the basis that at the very worst this will happen after a general election, almost certainly this year.
If people can see scenarios where this doesn't happen, I'd be interested to hear the arguments.
Why isn’t 2019 for next general election at something like 25 on Betfair? The route to it now looks highly implausible just as a matter of mechanics.
December is now 2.7, which I guess is the implied odds of the government falling in the next 10 days. Hasn’t that become somewhat more likely after today’s events?
The government falling does not lead automatically to or is even especially likely to lead to a general election.
Ah, so was that you who took my £20 at 2.9 earlier?
The chances of a 2019 election now look really quite distant now. With the DUP’s shift, there might yet be a fresh referendum before a general election, especially if Parliament gets to get the legislation before approving the deal.
I totally agree with you. Get on 2nd ref before both election and Brexit before it tightens.
Get on brexit never happening before it tightens.
The only betting issue is does confirmatory vote count as 2nd ref in all bets?
Betfair’s wording on its 2nd referendum market says that there needs to be a Remain option on the ballot “For clarity Yes will be settled as a winner if a Referendum is put to the people where one of the options is to remain a full member of the European Union. The other option/options must offer the alternative option to leave the European Union. This is irrespective of how many options are put on the ballot paper”
So does their Referendum or Election first market.
” For the purposes of this market an In/Out referendum is defined as a referendum put to the people where one of the options is to remain a full member of the European Union. The other option/options must offer the alternative option to leave the European Union. This is irrespective of how many options are put on the ballot paper.”
But remain as a term doesn’t exist anymore. When the confirmatory vote is published it will be governments deal v revoke. Revoke will be used not remain.
A “confirmatory vote” surely, by definition, has the question “should we progress this deal, yes or no?”
It will say progress deal v revoke. Lesson learned these pleblicites need clear outcomes. In your suggestion when result is no what the hell would that mean? 🥴
Well after that time to watch a bit of sport, relax and look forward to the EU Ambassadors meeting tomorrow.
Lots of argy bargy in the meantime but nothing will happen now before tomorrow
If nothing else today has seen the conservative party come closer together and that is the plus for me and why I will rejoin. We have to be a broad church
I think you are being over-optimistic on the Conservatives. Great for you, if you feel re-joining is right for you but the party is still split. All that has happened is a harder Brexit is on offer with the new deal...
Not really.
There are only Grieve, Greening and Bebb who are still rebels and Grieve is not going to be the conservative candidate, Bebb and Greening are not standing, so the party is healing and of course post next GE it will be euro sceptic but hopefully we will be in the transistion phase
Why isn’t 2019 for next general election at something like 25 on Betfair? The route to it now looks highly implausible just as a matter of mechanics.
December is now 2.7, which I guess is the implied odds of the government falling in the next 10 days. Hasn’t that become somewhat more likely after today’s events?
The government falling does not lead automatically to or is even especially likely to lead to a general election.
Ah, so was that you who took my £20 at 2.9 earlier?
The chances of a 2019 election now look really quite distant now. With the DUP’s shift, there might yet be a fresh referendum before a general election, especially if Parliament gets to get the legislation before approving the deal.
I totally agree with you. Get on 2nd ref before both election and Brexit before it tightens.
Get on brexit never happening before it tightens.
The only betting issue is does confirmatory vote count as 2nd ref in all bets?
Betfair’s wording on its 2nd referendum market says that there needs to be a Remain option on the ballot “For clarity Yes will be settled as a winner if a Referendum is put to the people where one of the options is to remain a full member of the European Union. The other option/options must offer the alternative option to leave the European Union. This is irrespective of how many options are put on the ballot paper”
So does their Referendum or Election first market.
” For the purposes of this market an In/Out referendum is defined as a referendum put to the people where one of the options is to remain a full member of the European Union. The other option/options must offer the alternative option to leave the European Union. This is irrespective of how many options are put on the ballot paper.”
But remain as a term doesn’t exist anymore. When the confirmatory vote is published it will be governments deal v revoke. Revoke will be used not remain.
I'd be confident Shadsy would take that line, but who knows with betfair
The Opposition is terrified of an election, terrified of even a simple yes or no vote in Parliament. What exactly does that tell you about their confidence in themselves?
And who’s leader was PM when the FTPA was passed? You helped make the new rules - you can’t complain when someone else uses them to their advantage.
Comments
Are you on the inside?
Anyway, when's this Civil War thing happening?
Whatever there is I'm sure its been steadily reducing for decades.
The DUP play a dangerous game when they are dependent upon subsidies from the rest of the UK.
Replacing which was the point of the Letwin amendment.
There’s no such thing as remain anymore the word has morphed into revoke and revokers the second Boris published his deal.
Of course a letter will be sent and as I have previously said I expect our Eu Ambassador to do so at the EU Ambassadors meeting tomorrow
It will cost Dublin 12billion because that’s is what London gives every year (higher than what it gives EU for membership) so we need to bung them upward of that
It is clear that leaving the EU and the GFA are mutually exclusive.
Time to re-negotiate the GFA
Odds JBriskinindyref2 gets zapped before "Brexit is done"
2/1
Get on brexit never happening before it tightens.
The only betting issue is does confirmatory vote count as 2nd ref in all bets?
Lots of argy bargy in the meantime but nothing will happen now before tomorrow
If nothing else today has seen the conservative party come closer together and that is the plus for me and why I will rejoin. We have to be a broad church
“For clarity Yes will be settled as a winner if a Referendum is put to the people where one of the options is to remain a full member of the European Union. The other option/options must offer the alternative option to leave the European Union. This is irrespective of how many options are put on the ballot paper”
So does their Referendum or Election first market.
” For the purposes of this market an In/Out referendum is defined as a referendum put to the people where one of the options is to remain a full member of the European Union. The other option/options must offer the alternative option to leave the European Union. This is irrespective of how many options are put on the ballot paper.”
Sorry but UK OK.
It might be breaking up in your dreams - In reality; no.
I thought about going on the people' march but the possibility of confrontation by those who want Brexit put me off. Reasoned debate should be the order of the day, not unpleasant confrontation...
At least four of the comic strips were posted on his Facebook page between November 2018 and March 2019, but only uncovered three months ago when a Muslim member of his local Labour party in Ilford, east London, reported them to party officials.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7583189/Labour-Party-member-slammed-Islamophobic-Facebook-posts-Jesus-Mohammed.html
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7591337/Dominic-Cummings-portrayed-demonic-NAZI-giant-effigy-raised-anti-Brexit-mob.html
I thought everybody was supposed be toning down this kind of abuse...cos it risks inciting violence and stuff.
The underlying mentality is "people like them should not be telling people like me what to do".
As an example look at the hatred spewed against Caroline Flint earlier.
I'm very much tempted by Betfair's "Meaningful Vote to pass in 2019?" market, currently at 1.41-1.48, on the basis that at the very worst this will happen after a general election, almost certainly this year.
If people can see scenarios where this doesn't happen, I'd be interested to hear the arguments.
There are only Grieve, Greening and Bebb who are still rebels and Grieve is not going to be the conservative candidate, Bebb and Greening are not standing, so the party is healing and of course post next GE it will be euro sceptic but hopefully we will be in the transistion phase