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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    Freggles said:

    Does anyone think Boris would actually get a sustained boost from agreeing a Deal?

    What is he once Brexit is stripped away? How many voters are going to use him to get their way, then get rid once the deed is complete?

    Very few...

    At least whilst Corbyn is the other option for PM.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Andrew said:

    and now 301-296 with 37 unknown. Prolly a better reflection.


    Andrew said:

    Electionmaps updated to 313-296, with 25 unknown (note: the count is after tellers, so 318 needed)

    Caveat: most of the unknowns will vote against.

    Johnson will win by about 20.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    Freggles said:

    Does anyone think Boris would actually get a sustained boost from agreeing a Deal?

    What is he once Brexit is stripped away? How many voters are going to use him to get their way, then get rid once the deed is complete?

    Not many as long as the main alternative is Corbyn
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,215
    I think letwin genuinely wants the deal and to avoid no deal, but is he allowing himself to be set up as the anti-dealer's useful idiot ?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616

    Zephyr said:

    nico67 said:

    The Letwin amendment just gives time for scrutiny of the bill, doesn’t it? Surely that’s a good thing. It’s clear we’re leaving, but isn’t it best to do it in a way that does not cause problems further down the line?

    Leavers don’t care about future problems , if they did they wouldn’t have voted to Leave.

    And who would trust the ERG , they can just pull support once we get to the WAIB .

    I can understand why some Labour MPs might vote yes but if they’re going to do that they should not agree until no deal is properly off the table .
    You do kno there are less than a 100 ERG MPs don't you? If No Deal is so fucking Earth-rendingly terrible - then pass the Boris Deal. Again and again, if needs be.
    I can’t understand why a single Labour MP would vote for a worse deal than the last one put before them that’s also worse than the next one that’s going to be put before them.

    I think the Brexiteers are getting embarrassingly confused by what a Labour MP in a leave constituency is and the pressure that comes from that. When you say Labour MP in leave constituency, is the constituency Labour party members leave or very Pro remain 😊
    Very few Leave voters voted Labour at the last GE, even in Labour Leave seats.
    The numbers of Leave voters who have left Labour since the 2017 GE would show that to be utter bollocks.
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438
    edited October 2019

    HYUFD said:

    Not for long, Macron vetoes further extension next week if the Deal is not passed and the Commons has not voted for EUref2 or a GE
    Is that before or after Boris Johnson goes to prison for refusing to make the extension request?
    Do you want Boris to be a martyr for his cause then
    Mays Deal+added surrender to the EU. 😁😁😁

    Tory Prime minster throws DUP to the dogs. 😆😆😆😆

    Relying on EU to bully our parliament help us get out the EU. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

    Take a backstop we can’t get out of. Turn it into a backstop we need the IRA’s permission to get out of 🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪

    Martyring would be a blessing. Farage will have his head in a case and it will be a tourist attraction
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067

    There is no point attacking Johnson. He has played his hand superbly. The 70% of young people who have been betrayed should put the blame squarely where it lies. On the shoulders of Jeremy Corbyn.
    Actually, I do not hold John McDonnell, whose name is always uttered under the same breath with Corbyn, responsible. He has been very sensible and has pursued well argued economic policies. Sadly all this has been in vain with the posho public school educated Trots who control the Labour Party now - until the sure humiliation which awaits us at the next election.
    I do care who is the next leader: Emily, Yvette or even John but we have wasted 4 years now with a leader with little intellectual grasp.

    Yes, 100% agree. Jeremy Corbyn is a thick moron (how he got two 2 Es at A-level, God only knows!). The inevitable election will now happen which the tories will comfortably win. The Corbyn lovers (are there any on here?) will say otherwise but this was always on the card.

    Thanks a bunch, Jeremy Corbyn, you dim-witted w*nker!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    I hate to say he has a point. Letwin is not some Griever type remainer, but the wording just seems deliberately looser than it needs to be if the purpose is as stated.
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1185226943723126785
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Stocky said:

    noneoftheabove: " Bercow possibly wishing he'd resigned now, looks very close, he is guaranteed to win the vote but lose the public if its a tie whichever way he decides."

    He has no decision to make - he must vote against if it is a tie.

    Thats not how it will be portrayed in the media, social media or by our political leaders.

    Well that just shows how little they know about or respect parliamentary democracy.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    HYUFD said:
    This could all have been avoided if Johnson was VoNCed last month and a temporary GNU installed whose only job would have been to extend and then organize a people's vote. But a so called win in a meaningless Euro election bolstered an airhead who started dreaming of becoming a future PM. The Lib Dems in the coming GE will not get more than 25 seats.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    When does his eminence the speaker decide on what amendments he likes the look of?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    nichomar said:

    The Letwin amendment just gives time for scrutiny of the bill, doesn’t it? Surely that’s a good thing. It’s clear we’re leaving, but isn’t it best to do it in a way that does not cause problems further down the line?

    Anybody who supports the deal without understanding what it entails is an idiot, if you have an opinion it should be based on taking the trouble to compare our current deal, Mays deal and this one, if you haven’t then I suggest you at least preface your posts by admitting that ‘whilst I haven’t read the detail of the deal I don’t give a shit what it is as long as we leave’ before then opining.
    Well, in my case I haven’t read the detail of the deal but I don’t give a shit what it is as long as we leave (I'd rather remain, but that looks to be off the cards). There's only so long you can advocate delaying the invention of the wheel because there is no agreement as to what colour it ought to be.
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438
    edited October 2019

    Zephyr said:

    nico67 said:

    The Letwin amendment just gives time for scrutiny of the bill, doesn’t it? Surely that’s a good thing. It’s clear we’re leaving, but isn’t it best to do it in a way that does not cause problems further down the line?

    Leavers don’t care about future problems , if they did they wouldn’t have voted to Leave.

    And who would trust the ERG , they can just pull support once we get to the WAIB .

    I can understand why some Labour MPs might vote yes but if they’re going to do that they should not agree until no deal is properly off the table .
    You do kno there are less than a 100 ERG MPs don't you? If No Deal is so fucking Earth-rendingly terrible - then pass the Boris Deal. Again and again, if needs be.
    I can’t understand why a single Labour MP would vote for a worse deal than the last one put before them that’s also worse than the next one that’s going to be put before them.

    I think the Brexiteers are getting embarrassingly confused by what a Labour MP in a leave constituency is and the pressure that comes from that. When you say Labour MP in leave constituency, is the constituency Labour party members leave or very Pro remain 😊
    Very few Leave voters voted Labour at the last GE, even in Labour Leave seats.
    The numbers of Leave voters who have left Labour since the 2017 GE would show that to be utter bollocks.
    Let’s follow your logic through here. The people (so often gammon) being vox popped, always vote Labour but will vote Boris or Farage if the MP doesn’t vote for the deal? If they vote for the deal, these voters are going to be a Corbyn Labour vote at the next GE? That’s the pressure you feel being applied here in leave voting constituency’s 🤣
  • Zephyr said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not for long, Macron vetoes further extension next week if the Deal is not passed and the Commons has not voted for EUref2 or a GE
    Is that before or after Boris Johnson goes to prison for refusing to make the extension request?
    Do you want Boris to be a martyr for his cause then
    Mays Deal+added surrender to the EU. 😁😁😁

    Tory Prime minster throws DUP to the dogs. 😆😆😆😆

    Relying on EU to help us get out the EU. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

    Take a backstop we can’t get out of. Turn it into a backstop we need the IRA’s permission to get out of 🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪

    Martyring would be a blessing. Farage will have his head in a case and it will be a tourist attraction
    What an unpleasant ending to your post

  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    Pulpstar said:

    I think letwin genuinely wants the deal and to avoid no deal, but is he allowing himself to be set up as the anti-dealer's useful idiot ?

    I don't know what game he is playing, but it's not the one he's saying he's playing. If the unamended HMG vote goes through tomorrow, there's no extension. When the WAIB comes up it's deal or no deal. That bill goes through by miles.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    RobD said:

    When does his eminence the speaker decide on what amendments he likes the look of?

    9am tomorrow?
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438

    HYUFD said:
    This could all have been avoided if Johnson was VoNCed last month and a temporary GNU installed whose only job would have been to extend and then organize a people's vote. But a so called win in a meaningless Euro election bolstered an airhead who started dreaming of becoming a future PM. The Lib Dems in the coming GE will not get more than 25 seats.
    Oh ignore all that rubbish. When Baldrick left Labour after all his activism down the years he said he is quitting Labour because the leadership is sh@t. Its true. Boris wouldn’t stand a chance at a general election tomorrow if it wasn’t true.

    But not all the MPs are sh*t he’s not going to drag them all down. 😊
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Whether their decision was reasonable or principle or not, I think the DUP are already starting to miss being feted by the Tories, and looking for a new group to tell them how wonderful they are.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    Zephyr said:

    nico67 said:

    The Letwin amendment just gives time for scrutiny of the bill, doesn’t it? Surely that’s a good thing. It’s clear we’re leaving, but isn’t it best to do it in a way that does not cause problems further down the line?

    Leavers don’t care about future problems , if they did they wouldn’t have voted to Leave.

    And who would trust the ERG , they can just pull support once we get to the WAIB .

    I can understand why some Labour MPs might vote yes but if they’re going to do that they should not agree until no deal is properly off the table .
    You do kno there are less than a 100 ERG MPs don't you? If No Deal is so fucking Earth-rendingly terrible - then pass the Boris Deal. Again and again, if needs be.
    I can’t understand why a single Labour MP would vote for a worse deal than the last one put before them that’s also worse than the next one that’s going to be put before them.

    I think the Brexiteers are getting embarrassingly confused by what a Labour MP in a leave constituency is and the pressure that comes from that. When you say Labour MP in leave constituency, is the constituency Labour party members leave or very Pro remain 😊
    Very few Leave voters voted Labour at the last GE, even in Labour Leave seats.
    The numbers of Leave voters who have left Labour since the 2017 GE would show that to be utter bollocks.
    I am sure you know more than the British Election Study. All these years on PB, you have not come across as a knowledgeable giant.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited October 2019
    RobD said:

    nichomar said:

    The Letwin amendment just gives time for scrutiny of the bill, doesn’t it? Surely that’s a good thing. It’s clear we’re leaving, but isn’t it best to do it in a way that does not cause problems further down the line?

    Anybody who supports the deal without understanding what it entails is an idiot, if you have an opinion it should be based on taking the trouble to compare our current deal, Mays deal and this one, if you haven’t then I suggest you at least preface your posts by admitting that ‘whilst I haven’t read the detail of the deal I don’t give a shit what it is as long as we leave’ before then opining.
    So that rules out most MPs then. :D
    Possibly, a sad state of affairs I’m with Mr Observer, we’ve lost so let’s now do this properly with care and oversight let’s get a stable platform to move onto the next stage when we can argue about the future relationship, I’ll be pushing for what my ERG MP promised me before the referendum, EEA or EFTA it’s a shame he lied.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "The trans-toilet wars come to Britain
    The row over the Old Vic’s loos is just the start."

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/10/18/the-trans-toilet-wars-come-to-britain/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Saw that coming a mile away. Anything to not take a stand.

    All MPs should stop the delays - they will feel better when they make a decisive call, whatever it is, a load will have dropped.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    kle4 said:

    I hate to say he has a point. Letwin is not some Griever type remainer, but the wording just seems deliberately looser than it needs to be if the purpose is as stated.
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1185226943723126785

    I covered this earlier , endorsement of the deal removes the Benn Act .

    The amendment can’t read that the deal is accepted and then refer to the Benn Act .

    And if the amendment doesn’t mention the Benn Act but says a delay in case of a problem with the WAIB it’s not legally binding .

    Normal convention is a government abides by amendments but as we’ve seen convention means zip to this government.

    Dan Hodges is clueless , he should stick to arse licking the Tories and stop embarrassing himself over other things mainly law which he clearly knows nothing about .
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    isam said:

    The deal passing is odds on now, after I closed out for a £20 loss at 6/5 thanks to the Letwin nonsense!

    It's going to pass. This is it. We're leaving.

    Just the Transition to get through and we will be free to implement an Australian style points system.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    I'm on a (crowded, hot, unpleasant) train. I'm looking at GBP/EUR. It's going up and will finish the day about a cent up. Tomorrow it will move by approx 5cents. But I don't know in which direction.

    I hate this bit. Hate, Hate, Hate It. All my much-vaunted skill, and I know as much as a brick. Damn... :(
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438
    kle4 said:

    Saw that coming a mile away. Anything to not take a stand.

    All MPs should stop the delays - they will feel better when they make a decisive call, whatever it is, a load will have dropped.
    When you say Labour MP in leave constituency, is the constituency Labour party members leave or very Pro remain 😊

    The idea of pressure is utter fantasy. :). Because there’s remain MPs very much in leave constituency’s, like Jess Phillips who are safe as houses voting remain in Parliament. She’s not losing to a Tory or Brexit candidate in the next election. 😊 is she? Ah there’s the nub of your fantasy if seat predictor from polling says she is. the seat predicator result in front of you, but you have a brain between your ears, you have capacity to know what’s really is going to happen.

    forty labour rebels talked up for MV3 the last ever MV. These MPs posture for the media, but vote how their local labour members will want them to vote confident they are safe in a GE.

    Boris is going to lose by forty tomorrow.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Stocky said:

    noneoftheabove: " Bercow possibly wishing he'd resigned now, looks very close, he is guaranteed to win the vote but lose the public if its a tie whichever way he decides."

    He has no decision to make - he must vote against if it is a tie.

    No, if following precedent he should vote against if it is a tie, but there is no law that he must. I don't know why he would do differently, but he could if he wanted, as he himself correctly notes sometimes you do things differently in the new circumstances (though I disagree with some of his choices about when to do so).
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613

    PaulM said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The vote tomorrow is a watershed moment. If Johnson wins tomorrow, then he romps home in a GE. And, HYUFD will tell you the exact number of MPs the Tories will have. The SNP will be other winner.

    If the deal passes, then the GE becomes very unpredictable. Johnson won't get a thank you card from the electorate.
    If Boris gets his Deal through it will be with Labour votes, so Remainers will keep voting LD who will campaign on a rejoin platform while Boris will have stopped most of his leakage to the Brexit Party having delivered Brexit
    Alternatively it will give people the ability to vote for the Brexit Party without risking Brexit not happening.
    Only 17% of voters now back No Deal so Boris can live with that given the Remain/Rejoin vote will be split between the LDs and Labour

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1185150452758802433?s=20
    Where is the option to leave with a better (Labour) deal?
    Labour aren't going to get a better deal, since they've confirmed they would campaign against their own deal why would the EU engage in negotiations with them?
    Of course the EU would give a SM & CU deal, which in Labour eyes is better. They would also still give Mays deal which is better. They gave us a menu 2 years ago, none of the dishes are out of stock even if all have become a bit stale and less palatable than when we entered the establishment.
    Labour voted against May's deal. Or were they being opportunistic then, too?
    Yes politicians played politics shocker. None more than our PM who sabotaged a very similar but slightly better deal 12 months ago purely so he could eject his leader and take over control.
    They didn't sabotage it though, they just made the majority it lost by far worse.
    My understanding of the English language is that calling a deal negotiated by your own party PM as pathetic, feeble, a humiliation and akin to wearing a suicide vest to topple that PM, then rehash 95% of that same deal as he couldnt come up with a better solution is sabotage.

    Of course I am not fluent in no deal leavish so there may be issues in translation.
    Ok, have it your way, they sabotaged May's deal and if they hadn't sabotaged it it would have still not passed.


  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    kle4 said:

    Saw that coming a mile away. Anything to not take a stand.

    All MPs should stop the delays - they will feel better when they make a decisive call, whatever it is, a load will have dropped.
    Gotta be Lisa Nandy, surely?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    The Letwin amendment just gives time for scrutiny of the bill, doesn’t it? Surely that’s a good thing. It’s clear we’re leaving, but isn’t it best to do it in a way that does not cause problems further down the line?

    And what will this extra time be used for? More posturing I assume, since the EU are probably not going to change another word in any of the texts.

    Why is it posturing? It’s a huge agreement, there may be issues in the detail that could cause trouble further down the line. I genuinely don’t see the problem. It’s done. We’re leaving.
    Are we? These wrecking amendments and court cases are all about stopping Brexit.

    Some of the court cases are. The HoL one clearly wasn’t. I don’t think the Letwin amendment is about anything more than stopping an accidental - or ERG-engineered - No Deal. The one thing that would prevent the Tories winning the next GE is the ERG doing that.

    If that is all it is about why doesn't it say the deal is approved subject to X? It seems to be about more than you think or he is saying - and as he is so lauded for his draftmanship that must be very deliberate.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Freggles said:

    Does anyone think Boris would actually get a sustained boost from agreeing a Deal?

    What is he once Brexit is stripped away? How many voters are going to use him to get their way, then get rid once the deed is complete?

    Yes, he will. Those people whose TV viewing habits have been interrupted by Brexit will give him the benefit of doubt , for a few months, to have got it done [ focus group gamed ]. Within this time, the GE will be held. Both Labour and the LDs will be thrashed. Of course, the LDs ending up with about 25 seats will think it was a great leap forward with an airhead as its leader.
    The SNP will become the other winner and Independence, hopefully, will have come a lot closer. I hope it will be soon.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    You win some, you lose some, but as a layman I couldnt even understand on what grounds he was launching the case - can any lawyer explain why he thought it could win?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616

    Zephyr said:

    nico67 said:

    The Letwin amendment just gives time for scrutiny of the bill, doesn’t it? Surely that’s a good thing. It’s clear we’re leaving, but isn’t it best to do it in a way that does not cause problems further down the line?

    Leavers don’t care about future problems , if they did they wouldn’t have voted to Leave.

    And who would trust the ERG , they can just pull support once we get to the WAIB .

    I can understand why some Labour MPs might vote yes but if they’re going to do that they should not agree until no deal is properly off the table .
    You do kno there are less than a 100 ERG MPs don't you? If No Deal is so fucking Earth-rendingly terrible - then pass the Boris Deal. Again and again, if needs be.
    I can’t understand why a single Labour MP would vote for a worse deal than the last one put before them that’s also worse than the next one that’s going to be put before them.

    I think the Brexiteers are getting embarrassingly confused by what a Labour MP in a leave constituency is and the pressure that comes from that. When you say Labour MP in leave constituency, is the constituency Labour party members leave or very Pro remain 😊
    Very few Leave voters voted Labour at the last GE, even in Labour Leave seats.
    The numbers of Leave voters who have left Labour since the 2017 GE would show that to be utter bollocks.
    I am sure you know more than the British Election Study. All these years on PB, you have not come across as a knowledgeable giant.
    My bad, I was looking at a Labour Paty that got 40% in th 2017 GE and is now polling in the low 20's. It must be just those Remainers you have lost to the LibDems causing that collapse.....
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    The deal is 1.7 to pass tomorrow now, big money for it
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The vote tomorrow is a watershed moment. If Johnson wins tomorrow, then he romps home in a GE. And, HYUFD will tell you the exact number of MPs the Tories will have. The SNP will be other winner.

    If the deal passes, then the GE becomes very unpredictable. Johnson won't get a thank you card from the electorate.
    If Boris gets his Deal through it will be with Labour votes, so Remainers will keep voting LD who will campaign on a rejoin platform while Boris will have stopped most of his leakage to the Brexit Party having delivered Brexit
    Alternatively it will give people the ability to vote for the Brexit Party without risking Brexit not happening.
    Only 17% of voters now back No Deal so Boris can live with that given the Remain/Rejoin vote will be split between the LDs and Labour

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1185150452758802433?s=20
    Where is the option to leave with a better (Labour) deal?
    Labour aren't going to get a better deal, since they've confirmed they would campaign against their own deal why would the EU engage in negotiations with them?
    Because our deal would be closer to what the EU wants.
    You won't have a deal, you will be rejecting it.
    All hypothetical, but it would have been put to the voters. And I suspect that it would have stood a better chance of success than Bozo's deal in a referendum.
    With nobody supporting it?

    Brexiteers would be saying "this is not Brexit". Remainers would be saying "we don't want this". Labour will be saying "we negotiated this but we don't want it".

    That's not a deal that's a farce. A sham.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    kle4 said:

    You win some, you lose some, but as a layman I couldnt even understand on what grounds he was launching the case - can any lawyer explain why he thought it could win?
    My non lawyerly opinion is Ego
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    The Letwin amendment just gives time for scrutiny of the bill, doesn’t it? Surely that’s a good thing. It’s clear we’re leaving, but isn’t it best to do it in a way that does not cause problems further down the line?

    And what will this extra time be used for? More posturing I assume, since the EU are probably not going to change another word in any of the texts.

    Why is it posturing? It’s a huge agreement, there may be issues in the detail that could cause trouble further down the line. I genuinely don’t see the problem. It’s done. We’re leaving.
    Are we? These wrecking amendments and court cases are all about stopping Brexit.

    Some of the court cases are. The HoL one clearly wasn’t. I don’t think the Letwin amendment is about anything more than stopping an accidental - or ERG-engineered - No Deal. The one thing that would prevent the Tories winning the next GE is the ERG doing that.

    If that is all it is about why doesn't it say the deal is approved subject to X? It seems to be about more than you think or he is saying - and as he is so lauded for his draftmanship that must be very deliberate.
    See my previous post . That’s not legally binding.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    kle4 said:

    You win some, you lose some, but as a layman I couldnt even understand on what grounds he was launching the case - can any lawyer explain why he thought it could win?
    My non lawyerly opinion is Ego
    He forgot that Parliament was sovereign. Perhaps he should read PB. :p
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438
    I

    Zephyr said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not for long, Macron vetoes further extension next week if the Deal is not passed and the Commons has not voted for EUref2 or a GE
    Is that before or after Boris Johnson goes to prison for refusing to make the extension request?
    Do you want Boris to be a martyr for his cause then
    Mays Deal+added surrender to the EU. 😁😁😁

    Tory Prime minster throws DUP to the dogs. 😆😆😆😆

    Relying on EU to help us get out the EU. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

    Take a backstop we can’t get out of. Turn it into a backstop we need the IRA’s permission to get out of 🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪

    Martyring would be a blessing. Farage will have his head in a case and it will be a tourist attraction
    What an unpleasant ending to your post

    Oliver Plunkett sends you best wishes
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    The deal passing is odds on now, after I closed out for a £20 loss at 6/5 thanks to the Letwin nonsense!

    It's going to pass.
    But when? If Letwin passed, and it has Labour and ex-con support, it won't be passing tomorrow.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    Zephyr said:

    kle4 said:

    Saw that coming a mile away. Anything to not take a stand.

    All MPs should stop the delays - they will feel better when they make a decisive call, whatever it is, a load will have dropped.
    When you say Labour MP in leave constituency, is the constituency Labour party members leave or very Pro remain 😊

    The idea of pressure is utter fantasy. :). Because there’s remain MPs very much in leave constituency’s, like Jess Phillips who are safe as houses voting remain in Parliament. She’s not losing to a Tory or Brexit candidate in the next election. 😊 is she? Ah there’s the nub of your fantasy if seat predictor from polling says she is. the seat predicator result in front of you, but you have a brain between your ears, you have capacity to know what’s really is going to happen.

    forty labour rebels talked up for MV3 the last ever MV. These MPs posture for the media, but vote how their local labour members will want them to vote confident they are safe in a GE.

    Boris is going to lose by forty tomorrow.
    Jess Phillips loses to the LibDems. On the seat projectors.
  • Please can someone explain why rhe betting is now that the voye will pass but that we will not leave this month. how can that happen?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    nico67 said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    The Letwin amendment just gives time for scrutiny of the bill, doesn’t it? Surely that’s a good thing. It’s clear we’re leaving, but isn’t it best to do it in a way that does not cause problems further down the line?

    And what will this extra time be used for? More posturing I assume, since the EU are probably not going to change another word in any of the texts.

    Why is it posturing? It’s a huge agreement, there may be issues in the detail that could cause trouble further down the line. I genuinely don’t see the problem. It’s done. We’re leaving.
    Are we? These wrecking amendments and court cases are all about stopping Brexit.

    Some of the court cases are. The HoL one clearly wasn’t. I don’t think the Letwin amendment is about anything more than stopping an accidental - or ERG-engineered - No Deal. The one thing that would prevent the Tories winning the next GE is the ERG doing that.

    If that is all it is about why doesn't it say the deal is approved subject to X? It seems to be about more than you think or he is saying - and as he is so lauded for his draftmanship that must be very deliberate.
    See my previous post . That’s not legally binding.
    Very well. But that still means his amendment does not do what he says it does.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Please can someone explain why rhe betting is now that the voye will pass but that we will not leave this month. how can that happen?

    A short technical extension to get bills passed? Given that the transition is basically the same as membership, it doesn't seem all that necessary.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited October 2019
    When Letwin passes (and it will - Labour leave and ex con support) does the government vote against its own motion? Convention, whatever, it negates what they are there to do so why back it?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    Latest Canada seats projection ahead of Monday's Canadian general election

    Liberals 132
    Conservatives 131
    BQ 35
    NDP 33
    Greens 3

    http://338canada.com
  • kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    The deal passing is odds on now, after I closed out for a £20 loss at 6/5 thanks to the Letwin nonsense!

    It's going to pass.
    But when? If Letwin passed, and it has Labour and ex-con support, it won't be passing tomorrow.
    And then the EU say 'vote again'
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    Hey guys! You remember that election/vote? Y'know, the one that didn't really matter very much because all the participants were well-dressed and -spoken, and would implement broadly the same policies and not mess up people's lives or subvert democracy. Where we didn't have to worry that they would crash the currency, betray it to outsiders, or wantonly insult people?

    No?

    ME NEITHER!!!!!

  • Cyclefree said:

    RobD said:

    The Letwin amendment just gives time for scrutiny of the bill, doesn’t it? Surely that’s a good thing. It’s clear we’re leaving, but isn’t it best to do it in a way that does not cause problems further down the line?

    And what will this extra time be used for? More posturing I assume, since the EU are probably not going to change another word in any of the texts.
    To ensure that the Bill implementing the Withdrawal Agreement becomes law and gets Royal Assent.

    Why? Because the PM is not trusted and nor are those MPs who prefer a No Deal exit. The concern is that the actual Bill might not be passed and Britain crashes out anyway regardless of the existence of the WA.

    This is what happens when the leader behaves in a way which does not engender trust. Others will try to tie his hands. Plus those who are not in the ERG do not trust the ERG at all.
    How do you accidentally crash out when there is a WA there and an option to VONC and replace the PM if it isn't implemented?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,215
    kle4 said:

    When Letwin passes (and it will - Labour leave and ex con support) does the government vote against its own motion?

    No I'm guessing.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Zephyr said:

    kle4 said:

    Saw that coming a mile away. Anything to not take a stand.

    All MPs should stop the delays - they will feel better when they make a decisive call, whatever it is, a load will have dropped.
    When you say Labour MP in leave constituency, is the constituency Labour party members leave or very Pro remain 😊

    The idea of pressure is utter fantasy. :). Because there’s remain MPs very much in leave constituency’s, like Jess Phillips who are safe as houses voting remain in Parliament. She’s not losing to a Tory or Brexit candidate in the next election. 😊 is she? Ah there’s the nub of your fantasy if seat predictor from polling says she is. the seat predicator result in front of you, but you have a brain between your ears, you have capacity to know what’s really is going to happen.

    forty labour rebels talked up for MV3 the last ever MV. These MPs posture for the media, but vote how their local labour members will want them to vote confident they are safe in a GE.

    Boris is going to lose by forty tomorrow.
    I don't think so. Johnson will win by 20 thanks to Labour Idiots.
    The Leave seat argument is absolute tosh. Yvette Cooper's seat voted 69%. If she thinks she is in danger, she doesn't behave like one.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616

    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    The deal passing is odds on now, after I closed out for a £20 loss at 6/5 thanks to the Letwin nonsense!

    It's going to pass.
    But when? If Letwin passed, and it has Labour and ex-con support, it won't be passing tomorrow.
    And then the EU say 'vote again'
    There will be enormous irony in Remainers being told by the EU to vote again and again until they get the correct result - Brexit!
  • isam said:

    The deal is 1.7 to pass tomorrow now, big money for it

    Still value IMO, barring some Letwin madness.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Please can someone explain why rhe betting is now that the voye will pass but that we will not leave this month. how can that happen?

    Seems crazy

    Worth a bet at 2.5
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438

    Zephyr said:

    nico67 said:

    The Letwin amendment just gives time for scrutiny of the bill, doesn’t it? Surely that’s a good thing. It’s clear we’re leaving, but isn’t it best to do it in a way that does not cause problems further down the line?

    Leavers don’t care about future problems , if they did they wouldn’t have voted to Leave.

    And who would trust the ERG , they can just pull support once we get to the WAIB .

    I can understand why some Labour MPs might vote yes but if they’re going to do that they should not agree until no deal is properly off the table .
    You do kno there are less than a 100 ERG MPs don't you? If No Deal is so fucking Earth-rendingly terrible - then pass the Boris Deal. Again and again, if needs be.
    I can’t understand why a single Labour MP would vote for a worse deal than the last one put before them that’s also worse than the next one that’s going to be put before them.

    I think the Brexiteers are getting embarrassingly confused by what a Labour MP in a leave constituency is and the pressure that comes from that. When you say Labour MP in leave constituency, is the constituency Labour party members leave or very Pro remain 😊
    Very few Leave voters voted Labour at the last GE, even in Labour Leave seats.
    The numbers of Leave voters who have left Labour since the 2017 GE would show that to be utter bollocks.
    I am sure you know more than the British Election Study. All these years on PB, you have not come across as a knowledgeable giant.
    My bad, I was looking at a Labour Paty that got 40% in th 2017 GE and is now polling in the low 20's. It must be just those Remainers you have lost to the LibDems causing that collapse.....
    Seriously Mark, to what extent are polls doctored as to likelyhood of vote? To what extent they have low likelihood to vote built in to the gaps, and pollsters caught out at elections when people do unexpectedly come out on the day?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    (ranty rant deleted)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    Surely the decision of the House should be 52% to 48% in favour, roughly 328 to 308.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited October 2019
    For predictions on the vote we really need to have two - 1 assuming Letwin does not pass, one assuming it does.

    If Letwin does not pass I think it 300-310 in favour, if Letwin passes more like 325-330.
    DavidL said:

    Surely the decision of the House should be 52% to 48% in favour, roughly 328 to 308.

    Pretty much my guess in reverse.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    kle4 said:

    You win some, you lose some, but as a layman I couldnt even understand on what grounds he was launching the case - can any lawyer explain why he thought it could win?
    It's so much easier to have a speculative punt when you are being crowd-funded by dozy remainers.....
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    isam said:

    The deal is 1.7 to pass tomorrow now, big money for it

    Problem is, we can both recite cases where odds have converged to the wrong outcome... :(
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,215

    kle4 said:

    You win some, you lose some, but as a layman I couldnt even understand on what grounds he was launching the case - can any lawyer explain why he thought it could win?
    It's so much easier to have a speculative punt when you are being crowd-funded by dozy remainers.....
    Trying to inhibit parliament was not........ a particularly good look given he'd just launched a case against Johnson for doing just that.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    Zephyr said:

    Zephyr said:

    nico67 said:

    The Letwin amendment just gives time for scrutiny of the bill, doesn’t it? Surely that’s a good thing. It’s clear we’re leaving, but isn’t it best to do it in a way that does not cause problems further down the line?

    Leavers don’t care about future problems , if they did they wouldn’t have voted to Leave.

    And who would trust the ERG , they can just pull support once we get to the WAIB .

    I can understand why some Labour MPs might vote yes but if they’re going to do that they should not agree until no deal is properly off the table .
    You do kno there are less than a 100 ERG MPs don't you? If No Deal is so fucking Earth-rendingly terrible - then pass the Boris Deal. Again and again, if needs be.
    I can’t understand why a single Labour MP would vote for a worse deal than the last one put before them that’s also worse than the next one that’s going to be put before them.

    I think the Brexiteers are getting embarrassingly confused by what a Labour MP in a leave constituency is and the pressure that comes from that. When you say Labour MP in leave constituency, is the constituency Labour party members leave or very Pro remain 😊
    Very few Leave voters voted Labour at the last GE, even in Labour Leave seats.
    The numbers of Leave voters who have left Labour since the 2017 GE would show that to be utter bollocks.
    I am sure you know more than the British Election Study. All these years on PB, you have not come across as a knowledgeable giant.
    My bad, I was looking at a Labour Paty that got 40% in th 2017 GE and is now polling in the low 20's. It must be just those Remainers you have lost to the LibDems causing that collapse.....
    Seriously Mark, to what extent are polls doctored as to likelyhood of vote? To what extent they have low likelihood to vote built in to the gaps, and pollsters caught out at elections when people do unexpectedly come out on the day?
    Praying for that outcome is all you've got left.....
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    Cyclefree said:

    RobD said:

    The Letwin amendment just gives time for scrutiny of the bill, doesn’t it? Surely that’s a good thing. It’s clear we’re leaving, but isn’t it best to do it in a way that does not cause problems further down the line?

    And what will this extra time be used for? More posturing I assume, since the EU are probably not going to change another word in any of the texts.
    To ensure that the Bill implementing the Withdrawal Agreement becomes law and gets Royal Assent.

    Why? Because the PM is not trusted and nor are those MPs who prefer a No Deal exit. The concern is that the actual Bill might not be passed and Britain crashes out anyway regardless of the existence of the WA.

    This is what happens when the leader behaves in a way which does not engender trust. Others will try to tie his hands. Plus those who are not in the ERG do not trust the ERG at all.
    How do you accidentally crash out when there is a WA there and an option to VONC and replace the PM if it isn't implemented?
    Article 50 is only satisfied with the WAIB going through not tomorrow’s motion , and there would be no time in terms of VONC if Johnson decided on no deal .

  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438

    Zephyr said:

    kle4 said:

    Saw that coming a mile away. Anything to not take a stand.

    All MPs should stop the delays - they will feel better when they make a decisive call, whatever it is, a load will have dropped.
    When you say Labour MP in leave constituency, is the constituency Labour party members leave or very Pro remain 😊

    The idea of pressure is utter fantasy. :). Because there’s remain MPs very much in leave constituency’s, like Jess Phillips who are safe as houses voting remain in Parliament. She’s not losing to a Tory or Brexit candidate in the next election. 😊 is she? Ah there’s the nub of your fantasy if seat predictor from polling says she is. the seat predicator result in front of you, but you have a brain between your ears, you have capacity to know what’s really is going to happen.

    forty labour rebels talked up for MV3 the last ever MV. These MPs posture for the media, but vote how their local labour members will want them to vote confident they are safe in a GE.

    Boris is going to lose by forty tomorrow.
    I don't think so. Johnson will win by 20 thanks to Labour Idiots.
    The Leave seat argument is absolute tosh. Yvette Cooper's seat voted 69%. If she thinks she is in danger, she doesn't behave like one.
    So you buy in to the leave seat pressure being absolute tosh, why then do you have 20 Labour idiots passing Boris bad surrender deal? Their local party members, their remain voters, their PLP colleagues and most likely family members aren’t going to be happy with them, and their names etched for ever in history books of how the mad pipe dream of Brexit got passed, so what about them tomorrow that over rides all of that
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    kle4 said:

    But when? If Letwin passed, and it has Labour and ex-con support, it won't be passing tomorrow.

    That just possibly delays the inevitable for a short time is my take on Letwin.

    Brexit as we know it - this big febrile debate - is done.

    I think so anyway. I think it and feel it.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited October 2019
    Most sensible people want Boris's deal to pass in the hope that we can move on from Brexit. If this is their hope, in that they are sadly deluded. The Nation will still be arguing about Brexit in 10 years time. There are enough loons in the Tory Party to cause trouble for generations to come. I see the poll below confirms my view of getting it done,....
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438

    Zephyr said:

    Zephyr said:

    nico67 said:

    The Letwin amendment just gives time for scrutiny of the bill, doesn’t it? Surely that’s a good thing. It’s clear we’re leaving, but isn’t it best to do it in a way that does not cause problems further down the line?

    Leavers don’t care about future problems , if they did they wouldn’t have voted to Leave.

    And who would trust the ERG , they can just pull support once we get to the WAIB .

    I can understand why some Labour MPs might vote yes but if they’re going to do that they should not agree until no deal is properly off the table .
    You do kno there are less than a 100 ERG MPs don't you? If No Deal is so fucking Earth-rendingly terrible - then pass the Boris Deal. Again and again, if needs be.
    I can’t understand why a single Labour MP would vote for a worse deal than the last one put before them that’s also worse than the next one that’s going to be put before them.

    I think the Brexiteers are getting embarrassingly confused by what a Labour MP in a leave constituency is and the pressure that comes from that. When you say Labour MP in leave constituency, is the constituency Labour party members leave or very Pro remain 😊
    Very few Leave voters voted Labour at the last GE, even in Labour Leave seats.
    The numbers of Leave voters who have left Labour since the 2017 GE would show that to be utter bollocks.
    I am sure you know more than the British Election Study. All these years on PB, you have not come across as a knowledgeable giant.
    My bad, I was looking at a Labour Paty that got 40% in th 2017 GE and is now polling in the low 20's. It must be just those Remainers you have lost to the LibDems causing that collapse.....
    Seriously Mark, to what extent are polls doctored as to likelyhood of vote? To what extent they have low likelihood to vote built in to the gaps, and pollsters caught out at elections when people do unexpectedly come out on the day?
    Praying for that outcome is all you've got left.....
    Well. To be honest. Yes. I’m supremely confident seat projectors aren’t predicting the next general election result.
  • kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    But when? If Letwin passed, and it has Labour and ex-con support, it won't be passing tomorrow.

    That just possibly delays the inevitable for a short time is my take on Letwin.

    Brexit as we know it - this big febrile debate - is done.

    I think so anyway. I think it and feel it.

    I agree. It’s time to take the medicine.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    I did like this line from the court judgement

    Mr O’Neill suggested that even if orders were granted, matters could nonetheless proceed in Parliament as currently planned, but Parliament would be able to have regard to the court’s view on the legality of the draft withdrawal agreement. This, to my mind, makes little sense. It is not for the court to provide Parliament with some kind of advance advisory guidance
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    nico67 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    RobD said:

    The Letwin amendment just gives time for scrutiny of the bill, doesn’t it? Surely that’s a good thing. It’s clear we’re leaving, but isn’t it best to do it in a way that does not cause problems further down the line?

    And what will this extra time be used for? More posturing I assume, since the EU are probably not going to change another word in any of the texts.
    To ensure that the Bill implementing the Withdrawal Agreement becomes law and gets Royal Assent.

    Why? Because the PM is not trusted and nor are those MPs who prefer a No Deal exit. The concern is that the actual Bill might not be passed and Britain crashes out anyway regardless of the existence of the WA.

    This is what happens when the leader behaves in a way which does not engender trust. Others will try to tie his hands. Plus those who are not in the ERG do not trust the ERG at all.
    How do you accidentally crash out when there is a WA there and an option to VONC and replace the PM if it isn't implemented?
    Article 50 is only satisfied with the WAIB going through not tomorrow’s motion , and there would be no time in terms of VONC if Johnson decided on no deal .

    No time? A VONC has priority over all business apart from the QS.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    Latest Canada seats projection ahead of Monday's Canadian general election

    Liberals 132
    Conservatives 131
    BQ 35
    NDP 33
    Greens 3

    http://338canada.com

    No majority and no coalition possible because the BQ have said they won't take part in one. So it'll have to be a minority government or another election.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    The Letwin amendment just gives time for scrutiny of the bill, doesn’t it? Surely that’s a good thing. It’s clear we’re leaving, but isn’t it best to do it in a way that does not cause problems further down the line?

    And what will this extra time be used for? More posturing I assume, since the EU are probably not going to change another word in any of the texts.

    Why is it posturing? It’s a huge agreement, there may be issues in the detail that could cause trouble further down the line. I genuinely don’t see the problem. It’s done. We’re leaving.
    Are we? These wrecking amendments and court cases are all about stopping Brexit.

    Some of the court cases are. The HoL one clearly wasn’t. I don’t think the Letwin amendment is about anything more than stopping an accidental - or ERG-engineered - No Deal. The one thing that would prevent the Tories winning the next GE is the ERG doing that.

    If that is all it is about why doesn't it say the deal is approved subject to X? It seems to be about more than you think or he is saying - and as he is so lauded for his draftmanship that must be very deliberate.
    I think you have to look at who the other signatories are; they will have had a say in the wording. And a lot of them have form.....
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    I fully expect the deal to pass but not until we get to the WAIB and after an extension has been secured .

    Leavers have nothing to fear it will happen but might be just a bit later . A week or two at most .
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Zephyr said:

    Zephyr said:

    kle4 said:

    Saw that coming a mile away. Anything to not take a stand.

    All MPs should stop the delays - they will feel better when they make a decisive call, whatever it is, a load will have dropped.
    When you say Labour MP in leave constituency, is the constituency Labour party members leave or very Pro remain 😊

    The idea of pressure is utter fantasy. :). Because there’s remain MPs very much in leave constituency’s, like Jess Phillips who are safe as houses voting remain in Parliament. She’s not losing to a Tory or Brexit candidate in the next election. 😊 is she? Ah there’s the nub of your fantasy if seat predictor from polling says she is. the seat predicator result in front of you, but you have a brain between your ears, you have capacity to know what’s really is going to happen.

    forty labour rebels talked up for MV3 the last ever MV. These MPs posture for the media, but vote how their local labour members will want them to vote confident they are safe in a GE.

    Boris is going to lose by forty tomorrow.
    I don't think so. Johnson will win by 20 thanks to Labour Idiots.
    The Leave seat argument is absolute tosh. Yvette Cooper's seat voted 69%. If she thinks she is in danger, she doesn't behave like one.
    So you buy in to the leave seat pressure being absolute tosh, why then do you have 20 Labour idiots passing Boris bad surrender deal? Their local party members, their remain voters, their PLP colleagues and most likely family members aren’t going to be happy with them, and their names etched for ever in history books of how the mad pipe dream of Brexit got passed, so what about them tomorrow that over rides all of that
    Because you have said it. They are Idiots. Plus you have Rebecca Long Name types who will vote against [ because she is in the shadow cabinet ] but who probably still believes in the pre-Delors view that the EU is a vile animal stopping us getting to the great socialist nirvana. Actually, it would have been quicker for me to have said she is just a thicko - but difficult nowadays.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    edited October 2019
    Zephyr said:

    Zephyr said:

    nico67 said:

    The Letwin amendment just gives time for scrutiny of the bill, doesn’t it? Surely that’s a good thing. It’s clear we’re leaving, but isn’t it best to do it in a way that does not cause problems further down the line?

    Leavers don’t care about future problems , if they did they wouldn’t have voted to Leave.

    And who would trust the ERG , they can just pull support once we get to the WAIB .

    I can understand why some Labour MPs might vote yes but if they’re going to do that they should not agree until no deal is properly off the table .
    You do kno there are less than a 100 ERG MPs don't you? If No Deal is so fucking Earth-rendingly terrible - then pass the Boris Deal. Again and again, if needs be.
    I can’t understand why a single Labour MP would vote for a worse deal than the last one put before them that’s also worse than the next one that’s going to be put before them.

    I think the Brexiteers are getting embarrassingly confused by what a Labour MP in a leave constituency is and the pressure that comes from that. When you say Labour MP in leave constituency, is the constituency Labour party members leave or very Pro remain 😊
    Very few Leave voters voted Labour at the last GE, even in Labour Leave seats.
    The numbers of Leave voters who have left Labour since the 2017 GE would show that to be utter bollocks.
    I am sure you know more than the British Election Study. All these years on PB, you have not come across as a knowledgeable giant.
    My bad, I was looking at a Labour Paty that got 40% in th 2017 GE and is now polling in the low 20's. It must be just those Remainers you have lost to the LibDems causing that collapse.....
    Seriously Mark, to what extent are polls doctored as to likelyhood of vote? To what extent they have low likelihood to vote built in to the gaps, and pollsters caught out at elections when people do unexpectedly come out on the day?
    Pollsters suffer greatly from unrepresentative, nonrandom sampling: for example, those who use panels end up with unbalanced representation from the politically engaged, tech-savvy, or younger. They deal with this by trying to make their samples more representative and using turnout models: crude or sophisticated algorithms designed to convert voting intention to votes. From memory, Its mostly not an either-or so most (not all) adjust for turnout. When they get this wrong (and they really did in EU Ref) it can cause havoc with the prediction
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    But when? If Letwin passed, and it has Labour and ex-con support, it won't be passing tomorrow.

    That just possibly delays the inevitable for a short time is my take on Letwin.

    Brexit as we know it - this big febrile debate - is done.

    I think so anyway. I think it and feel it.
    I think the fight is still very much on. MPs fighting this hard to remain undecided for even just days longer, are not likely to fall back on 'giving in' to Johnson once they can no longer kick the can. It would be so much easier for someone who says they want us to leave but have reservations to just approve and be done with it. They've extended their own torturous deliberations, and that does not bode well for BoJo.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited October 2019
    nico67 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    RobD said:

    The Letwin amendment just gives time for scrutiny of the bill, doesn’t it? Surely that’s a good thing. It’s clear we’re leaving, but isn’t it best to do it in a way that does not cause problems further down the line?

    And what will this extra time be used for? More posturing I assume, since the EU are probably not going to change another word in any of the texts.
    To ensure that the Bill implementing the Withdrawal Agreement becomes law and gets Royal Assent.

    Why? Because the PM is not trusted and nor are those MPs who prefer a No Deal exit. The concern is that the actual Bill might not be passed and Britain crashes out anyway regardless of the existence of the WA.

    This is what happens when the leader behaves in a way which does not engender trust. Others will try to tie his hands. Plus those who are not in the ERG do not trust the ERG at all.
    How do you accidentally crash out when there is a WA there and an option to VONC and replace the PM if it isn't implemented?
    Article 50 is only satisfied with the WAIB going through not tomorrow’s motion , and there would be no time in terms of VONC if Johnson decided on no deal .

    Yes there would be time. There's already not enough time for a VONC, followed by 14 days, followed by an election. A replacement would need to be VONC and choose a new PM - now or in the future.

    You could cast a VONC and a vote indicating support for a new PM all within 24 hours. You could easily say Boris has until Tue 29th to pass his WAIB or request an extension and if he doesn't on Tue 29th you'd table a VONC for Wed 30th and a new PM would request an extension.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Even if Johnson is forced to ask for an extension and is granted one, that doesn't necessarily stop him from leaving by 31 October. If he's to be believed, the deal can be ratified by then anyway, and once the deal has been ratified we leave. We don't have to wait for the end of the extension. The fact of an extension doesn't of itself hold up the process of ratification. Putting off the meaningful vote until after the bill is passed delays it only by a few hours.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    RobD said:

    The Letwin amendment just gives time for scrutiny of the bill, doesn’t it? Surely that’s a good thing. It’s clear we’re leaving, but isn’t it best to do it in a way that does not cause problems further down the line?

    And what will this extra time be used for? More posturing I assume, since the EU are probably not going to change another word in any of the texts.
    To ensure that the Bill implementing the Withdrawal Agreement becomes law and gets Royal Assent.

    Why? Because the PM is not trusted and nor are those MPs who prefer a No Deal exit. The concern is that the actual Bill might not be passed and Britain crashes out anyway regardless of the existence of the WA.

    This is what happens when the leader behaves in a way which does not engender trust. Others will try to tie his hands. Plus those who are not in the ERG do not trust the ERG at all.
    How do you accidentally crash out when there is a WA there and an option to VONC and replace the PM if it isn't implemented?
    Article 50 is only satisfied with the WAIB going through not tomorrow’s motion , and there would be no time in terms of VONC if Johnson decided on no deal .

    No time? A VONC has priority over all business apart from the QS.
    It’s not just the VONC but time taken to get a new government , and as was seen earlier there’s no agreement on who would lead that anyway .
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,814
    I suspect the Letwin stuff is all a bit of fluff. The Council will surely just come back (if the MV passes) and say “here’s the deal, you accept it in principle, talk to us about an extension if you need it if you have trouble passing the legislation, but until then it’s a no.”
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Off topic, this showing Elizabeth Warren tearing a Wall Street CEO a new one is required viewing.

    https://youtu.be/xJhkX74D10M
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Latest Canada seats projection ahead of Monday's Canadian general election

    Liberals 132
    Conservatives 131
    BQ 35
    NDP 33
    Greens 3

    http://338canada.com

    No majority and no coalition possible because the BQ have said they won't take part in one. So it'll have to be a minority government or another election.
    All the rage thesedays - parties seem very wary of coalitions, they don't want to have to compromise (except on a case by case basis) and end up as the coalition partner who gtes hit hardest.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    I have to say Letwin [ a Tory ] is putting up a fantastic backs-to-the-wall defence. Man United should sign him up.
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    But when? If Letwin passed, and it has Labour and ex-con support, it won't be passing tomorrow.

    That just possibly delays the inevitable for a short time is my take on Letwin.

    Brexit as we know it - this big febrile debate - is done.

    I think so anyway. I think it and feel it.

    I agree. It’s time to take the medicine.

    What the surrenders of the last couple of weeks have shown, Cummings and Boris will never no deal us, so cross that off the list.

    When he loses tomorrow how do you see him getting a general election?

    He has to put his deal versus revoke to the country and ask EU for the six months to achieve that. When he loses tomorrow that is his only option left.

    😀. This is actually the moment it starts getting interesting.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:
    On the basis of UNS there would be 29 Tory gains from Labour offset by 11 losses to LDs and circa 8 to SNP - leaving the Tories with 328 seats - a majority of 6. Labour would be well placed to save 5 seats as a result of first term incumbency.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478
    edited October 2019

    Zephyr said:

    kle4 said:

    Saw that coming a mile away. Anything to not take a stand.

    All MPs should stop the delays - they will feel better when they make a decisive call, whatever it is, a load will have dropped.
    When you say Labour MP in leave constituency, is the constituency Labour party members leave or very Pro remain 😊

    The idea of pressure is utter fantasy. :). Because there’s remain MPs very much in leave constituency’s, like Jess Phillips who are safe as houses voting remain in Parliament. She’s not losing to a Tory or Brexit candidate in the next election. 😊 is she? Ah there’s the nub of your fantasy if seat predictor from polling says she is. the seat predicator result in front of you, but you have a brain between your ears, you have capacity to know what’s really is going to happen.

    forty labour rebels talked up for MV3 the last ever MV. These MPs posture for the media, but vote how their local labour members will want them to vote confident they are safe in a GE.

    Boris is going to lose by forty tomorrow.
    Jess Phillips loses to the LibDems. On the seat projectors.
    Well, it was a LibDem seat for a while recently.

    The then LibDem MP was a character, too. Not quite in the same mould as Ms Phillips though.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    If Johnson puts up too much of a fight over the Letwin Amendment he’s likely to lose some votes .

    Apparently the government is relaxed about the amendment as they think they can get everything done by October 31st anyway.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Zephyr said:

    kle4 said:

    Saw that coming a mile away. Anything to not take a stand.

    All MPs should stop the delays - they will feel better when they make a decisive call, whatever it is, a load will have dropped.
    When you say Labour MP in leave constituency, is the constituency Labour party members leave or very Pro remain 😊

    The idea of pressure is utter fantasy. :). Because there’s remain MPs very much in leave constituency’s, like Jess Phillips who are safe as houses voting remain in Parliament. She’s not losing to a Tory or Brexit candidate in the next election. 😊 is she? Ah there’s the nub of your fantasy if seat predictor from polling says she is. the seat predicator result in front of you, but you have a brain between your ears, you have capacity to know what’s really is going to happen.

    forty labour rebels talked up for MV3 the last ever MV. These MPs posture for the media, but vote how their local labour members will want them to vote confident they are safe in a GE.

    Boris is going to lose by forty tomorrow.
    Jess Phillips loses to the LibDems. On the seat projectors.
    She won’t though but she is a one off love her or hate her.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    nico67 said:

    I fully expect the deal to pass but not until we get to the WAIB and after an extension has been secured .

    Leavers have nothing to fear it will happen but might be just a bit later . A week or two at most .

    So let's say you're an MP. You vote for that further delay. But you know in your heart that Brexit will happen. There is no 7th Cavalry riding to Remain's rescue. The EU wants us out now, and it wants it done before the 31st and the new Commission comes in. Meanwhile, that new investment in your constituency still isn't happening until Brexit happens - and the whisper is, if this delay goes on, it might not happen at all. Your constituency is losing economic value with every day of uncertainty. And your voters are getting ornery at your actions. The hate mail, the death threats, all rising.

    So what is this delay for? What will it achieve?

    A fair few MPs will be going to bed tonight mulling that over......
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    How about:

    Deal fails tomorrow (or is Letwined, which amounts to the same thing).
    Boris refuses to send extension
    Court case
    Boris tries to arrange another vote while that is going on
    Bercow won't allow it
    Court case is lost, extension sent
    GE finally agreed
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    I think voters could be persuaded to go along with no deal if the EU wouldn't agree to specific demands, but now that Johnson has a deal he'd look completely daft if he did the equivalent of, "only kidding - fooled you!" to leave without one.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    nico67 said:

    If Johnson puts up too much of a fight over the Letwin Amendment he’s likely to lose some votes .

    Apparently the government is relaxed about the amendment as they think they can get everything done by October 31st anyway.

    Let me guess - rushing through their legislation without proper scrutiny? Perhaps not such a great move to repeatedly pull that one against the government if they then think they can get the numbers for it.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited October 2019
    Peston on ITV News predicting Letwin will pass and next week we're into complete chaos.

    *%^"$£*^ Letwin!!! :D
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    nichomar said:

    Zephyr said:

    kle4 said:

    Saw that coming a mile away. Anything to not take a stand.

    All MPs should stop the delays - they will feel better when they make a decisive call, whatever it is, a load will have dropped.
    When you say Labour MP in leave constituency, is the constituency Labour party members leave or very Pro remain 😊

    The idea of pressure is utter fantasy. :). Because there’s remain MPs very much in leave constituency’s, like Jess Phillips who are safe as houses voting remain in Parliament. She’s not losing to a Tory or Brexit candidate in the next election. 😊 is she? Ah there’s the nub of your fantasy if seat predictor from polling says she is. the seat predicator result in front of you, but you have a brain between your ears, you have capacity to know what’s really is going to happen.

    forty labour rebels talked up for MV3 the last ever MV. These MPs posture for the media, but vote how their local labour members will want them to vote confident they are safe in a GE.

    Boris is going to lose by forty tomorrow.
    Jess Phillips loses to the LibDems. On the seat projectors.
    She won’t though but she is a one off love her or hate her.
    On Labour's by-election performance last night, she is toast as a Labour MP, even if you love her.

    66. That is the number of Labour MPs left on the basis of that Kent by-election last night.

    66.

    Labour needs to move the argument away from Brexit. Fast. Hence the nod and a wink from Corbyn that nothing much will happen to those backing Boris's Deal.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    But when? If Letwin passed, and it has Labour and ex-con support, it won't be passing tomorrow.

    That just possibly delays the inevitable for a short time is my take on Letwin.

    Brexit as we know it - this big febrile debate - is done.

    I think so anyway. I think it and feel it.
    Yes. It is lost. And we were arguing who will be PM. One a 70 year old Marxist [ not even a thinking type ] the other an Airhead. We could have VoNCed, got a GNU , extended and, who knows, even got a 2nd ref. Johnson has outsmarted them all.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    edited October 2019
    GIN1138 said:

    Peston on ITV News predicting Letwin will pass and next week we're into complete chaos.

    *%^"$£*^ Letwin!!! :D

    Letwin sees the deal pass and Boris puts the Withdrawal Bill through the HOC next week. In the meantime the EU respond to any extension by saying you have time !!!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    This thread has been Letwinned

  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    nico67 said:

    I think some in here are getting confused as to what a motion is v what a Bill is .

    The WAIB (withdrawal and implementation bill)is what’s needed to satisfy the provisions of Article 50.

    Tomorrow’s vote is a motion . It’s simply a device to allow MPs to say yes or no to a proposition .

    The motion by itself does not constitute law , only a Bill does that as it moves through its stages . It then receives Royal Assent turning it into an Act of Parliament.

    So the Letwin thing is a motion? And the government can ignore it?
This discussion has been closed.