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  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    TudorRose said:

    Scott_P said:

    Brom said:

    You sound rather worried Scott. Boris looking like he might have the numbers.

    Why would that worry me?
    Common on Scott.

    Your whole DNA has been anti brexit and if this passes tomorrow you will be gutted along with many other remainers

    But if remainers are sensible they will seek to campaign to rejoin which is the obvious thing to do
    Will you?
    No - I accept the referendum and would not want to be involved in years of politics at my age to be honest and especially post brexit
    Makes sense to me.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2019
    Betting Question

    What happens if the deal is not passed tomorrow?

    No Deal shortens?

    Another Meaningful vote?
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    moonshine said:

    Who is the “senior cabinet minister” on resignation watch? That would be a total cluster for everyone’s current tight estimates if it happened

    Raab?
    Or Patel?
  • Scott_P said:

    Scott_P said:

    Brom said:

    You sound rather worried Scott. Boris looking like he might have the numbers.

    Why would that worry me?
    Common on Scott.

    Your whole DNA has been anti brexit and if this passes tomorrow you will be gutted along with many other remainers

    But if remainers are sensible they will seek to campaign to rejoin which is the obvious thing to do
    Clearly you haven't been paying attention.

    I have said, many times, the only way to kill the Brexit virus is for it to burn itself out.
    Maybe but you must admit your postings are generally all aimed at stopping brexit
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Chris said:

    philiph said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Offer Letwin an alternative. Benn letter to be transmitted if WAIB fails or not voted on by Oct 28.

    What is the bloody point? Whatever the length of the extension, we leave once the paperwork is done. We could be granted a ten-year extension, and still (in theory) leave before 31 October if we're ready.
    The point is Letwin is currently trying to force the letter tomorrow, the EU have made it pretty clear they arent going to extend, especially if the deal has been agreed (in principle in this case) so they decline an extension and no deal becomes a real possibility again if the WAIB falls.
    Only a moron like Letwin could come up with such a stupid amendment
    But of course, the EU haven't made it clear they aren't going to extend - they've just been making a lot of noises about the undesirability of extending, obviously intended to encourage MPs to vote in favour, but incapable of deceiving a small child.

    The only problem here is Johnson's idiotic self-imposed deadline. Wouldn't it be great if everyone else ignored the child in the room and started behaving like adults?
    They have stated pretty clearly any extension is for a reason.

    Johnson is unable to assure them that he or Parliament can deliver the reason for an extension. (Election or Referendum the numbers can not be guaranteed).

    That could easily lead to no extension.
    You can come out with as much wishful thinking as you like. The EU has certainly not made clear that they aren't going to extend, which was the claim.
    They will extend for a reason.

    Like to suggest some reasons they would extend for and how they are guaranteed?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    Isn't the wording the support is withheld until x is done? Which would mean needing another vote and so just delay the arguments?

    If it didnt mean holding another vote Letwin could surely have it unambiguous.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    edited October 2019
    Alistair said:

    For reference going into meaningful vote 3 public was split 33/38 on accepting / rejecting the deal.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/03/29/meaningful-vote-3-britons-are-still-split-whether-

    They are now split 41% to 24% in favour of accepting the Deal with the same pollster.

    Maim change Labour voters, 54% rejected the May Deal, only 35% reject the Boris Deal.

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1185150058855096320?s=20
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    moonshine said:

    Who is the “senior cabinet minister” on resignation watch? That would be a total cluster for everyone’s current tight estimates if it happened

    IDS maybe
    He's not in the cabinet anymore. One of the few things Boris has got right!
  • I very much doubt all the 21 will vote for a referendum
  • TudorRose said:

    moonshine said:

    Who is the “senior cabinet minister” on resignation watch? That would be a total cluster for everyone’s current tight estimates if it happened

    Raab?
    Or Patel?
    Buzzfeed are keeping a tally of confirmed backers, and she's on the list.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    HYUFD said:
    I believed we discussed in the last thread how inappropriate it is to liken Corbyn to a spiv...
  • DavidL said:

    moonshine said:

    Who is the “senior cabinet minister” on resignation watch? That would be a total cluster for everyone’s current tight estimates if it happened

    IDS maybe
    He's not in the cabinet anymore. One of the few things Boris has got right!
    Sorry I thought he attended cabinet
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    kle4 said:

    philiph said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Offer Letwin an alternative. Benn letter to be transmitted if WAIB fails or not voted on by Oct 28.

    What is the bloody point? Whatever the length of the extension, we leave once the paperwork is done. We could be granted a ten-year extension, and still (in theory) leave before 31 October if we're ready.
    The point is Letwin is currently trying to force the letter tomorrow, the EU have made it pretty clear they arent going to extend, especially if the deal has been agreed (in principle in this case) so they decline an extension and no deal becomes a real possibility again if the WAIB falls.
    Only a moron like Letwin could come up with such a stupid amendment
    But of course, the EU haven't made it clear they aren't going to extend - they've just been making a lot of noises about the undesirability of extending, obviously intended to encourage MPs to vote in favour, but incapable of deceiving a small child.

    The only problem here is Johnson's idiotic self-imposed deadline. Wouldn't it be great if everyone else ignored the child in the room and started behaving like adults?
    They have stated pretty clearly any extension is for a reason.

    Johnson is unable to assure them that he or Parliament can deliver the reason for an extension. (Election or Referendum the numbers can not be guaranteed).

    That could easily lead to no extension.
    They demanded reasons last time, or at the least that we had a plan for coming to a resolution. We didnt and they still extended. It was their first major blink - showing they will never call time, even if it is in their intetest.
    Or they won't make the same mistake twice? Who knows, but I wouldn't stake my life on Yes to extension.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736

    moonshine said:

    Who is the “senior cabinet minister” on resignation watch? That would be a total cluster for everyone’s current tight estimates if it happened

    IDS maybe
    He hasn't been in the cabinet for three and a half years!
  • kle4 said:

    Isn't the wording the support is withheld until x is done? Which would mean needing another vote and so just delay the arguments?

    If it didnt mean holding another vote Letwin could surely have it unambiguous.
    And in that case I expect Macron to say 'non'
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690

    TudorRose said:

    moonshine said:

    Who is the “senior cabinet minister” on resignation watch? That would be a total cluster for everyone’s current tight estimates if it happened

    Raab?
    Or Patel?
    Buzzfeed are keeping a tally of confirmed backers, and she's on the list.
    Raab was all over the telly today saying what a great deal it was.

    Saj was in the papers saying the same thing.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    For reference going into meaningful vote 3 public was split 33/38 on accepting / rejecting the deal.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/03/29/meaningful-vote-3-britons-are-still-split-whether-

    They are now split 40% to 31% in favour of accepting the Deal with the same pollster

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1185150058855096320?s=20
    Were respondents asked if they had actually seen the terms of the deal ?
    :smile:
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    "Betfair`s "Meaningful Vote to pass on 19/10/2019" odds are worth keeping an eye on (thanks isam). "No" is now strongish favourite. 1.82."

    This market is all over the place. Now flip-flopped 1.61 yes 2.38 no

  • Scott_P said:

    Brom said:

    You sound rather worried Scott. Boris looking like he might have the numbers.

    Why would that worry me?
    Common on Scott.

    Your whole DNA has been anti brexit and if this passes tomorrow you will be gutted along with many other remainers

    But if remainers are sensible they will seek to campaign to rejoin which is the obvious thing to do
    Of course we will be gutted. Boris's deal will a disaster for the future of the UK, both economically and politically. Who would wish that on their children? But it is still better than crashing out without a deal or another 3 months of faffing. May's deal would have been better, and not leaving at all would have been much better. Still, there is one silver lining: the Tories will reap over the coming year what they have sown this year.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    Problem is mps on both sides will be happy to disbelieve the EU commentary if it is convenient.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,893
    moonshine said:

    TudorRose said:

    moonshine said:

    Who is the “senior cabinet minister” on resignation watch? That would be a total cluster for everyone’s current tight estimates if it happened

    Raab?
    Or Patel?
    Buzzfeed are keeping a tally of confirmed backers, and she's on the list.
    Raab was all over the telly today saying what a great deal it was.

    Saj was in the papers saying the same thing.
    They both voted MV3
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    philiph said:

    Chris said:

    philiph said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Offer Letwin an alternative. Benn letter to be transmitted if WAIB fails or not voted on by Oct 28.

    What is the bloody point? Whatever the length of the extension, we leave once the paperwork is done. We could be granted a ten-year extension, and still (in theory) leave before 31 October if we're ready.
    The point is Letwin is currently trying to force the letter tomorrow, the EU have made it pretty clear they arent going to extend, especially if the deal has been agreed (in principle in this case) so they decline an extension and no deal becomes a real possibility again if the WAIB falls.
    Only a moron like Letwin could come up with such a stupid amendment
    But of course, the EU haven't made it clear they aren't going to extend - they've just been making a lot of noises about the undesirability of extending, obviously intended to encourage MPs to vote in favour, but incapable of deceiving a small child.

    The only problem here is Johnson's idiotic self-imposed deadline. Wouldn't it be great if everyone else ignored the child in the room and started behaving like adults?
    They have stated pretty clearly any extension is for a reason.

    Johnson is unable to assure them that he or Parliament can deliver the reason for an extension. (Election or Referendum the numbers can not be guaranteed).

    That could easily lead to no extension.
    You can come out with as much wishful thinking as you like. The EU has certainly not made clear that they aren't going to extend, which was the claim.
    They will extend for a reason.

    Like to suggest some reasons they would extend for and how they are guaranteed?
    They'll extend to avoid No Deal. OK?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    How many are not going to vote tomorrow? Clearly the 7 terrorists/friends of Jeremy, the Speaker (except on a tie) and 3 deputies, what about O'Mara? Anyone else?

    If that is all 638 votes, a winning line of 320. Sounds a lot without the DUP.
  • DavidL said:

    moonshine said:

    Who is the “senior cabinet minister” on resignation watch? That would be a total cluster for everyone’s current tight estimates if it happened

    IDS maybe
    He's not in the cabinet anymore. One of the few things Boris has got right!
    Considering Boris has managed to do what many like Rory said was completely impossible, and got a new deal removing the backstop, he has got more than just 'a few things' right!

    Lets not argue against Boris based on months old prejudices that have been proven wrong already.
  • DavidL said:

    How many are not going to vote tomorrow? Clearly the 7 terrorists/friends of Jeremy, the Speaker (except on a tie) and 3 deputies, what about O'Mara? Anyone else?

    If that is all 638 votes, a winning line of 320. Sounds a lot without the DUP.

    Skinner?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    philiph said:

    kle4 said:

    philiph said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Offer Letwin an alternative. Benn letter to be transmitted if WAIB fails or not voted on by Oct 28.

    What is the bloody point? Whatever the length of the extension, we leave once the paperwork is done. We could be granted a ten-year extension, and still (in theory) leave before 31 October if we're ready.
    The point is Letwin is currently trying to force the letter tomorrow, the EU have made it pretty clear they arent going to extend, especially if the deal has been agreed (in principle in this case) so they decline an extension and no deal becomes a real possibility again if the WAIB falls.
    Only a moron like Letwin could come up with such a stupid amendment
    But of course, the EU haven't made it clear they aren't going to extend - they've just been making a lot of noises about the undesirability of extending, obviously intended to encourage MPs to vote in favour, but incapable of deceiving a small child.

    The only problem here is Johnson's idiotic self-imposed deadline. Wouldn't it be great if everyone else ignored the child in the room and started behaving like adults?
    They have stated pretty clearly any extension is for a reason.

    Johnson is unable to assure them that he or Parliament can deliver the reason for an extension. (Election or Referendum the numbers can not be guaranteed).

    That could easily lead to no extension.
    They demanded reasons last time, or at the least that we had a plan for coming to a resolution. We didnt and they still extended. It was their first major blink - showing they will never call time, even if it is in their intetest.
    Or they won't make the same mistake twice? Who knows, but I wouldn't stake my life on Yes to extension.
    Labour 'leavers' and other potential waverers will. It avoids them having to make a call.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,893
    DavidL said:

    How many are not going to vote tomorrow? Clearly the 7 terrorists/friends of Jeremy, the Speaker (except on a tie) and 3 deputies, what about O'Mara? Anyone else?

    If that is all 638 votes, a winning line of 320. Sounds a lot without the DUP.

    650 - 4 tellers - 4 speakers - 7 Sinn Fein = 318 winning post with no abstentions.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,826
    Any word on Jolyon's latest wheeze?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    DavidL said:

    How many are not going to vote tomorrow? Clearly the 7 terrorists/friends of Jeremy, the Speaker (except on a tie) and 3 deputies, what about O'Mara? Anyone else?

    If that is all 638 votes, a winning line of 320. Sounds a lot without the DUP.

    Kelvin Hopkins is a hard leaver but a pal of Jeremy, he may well abstain
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    Pulpstar said:

    moonshine said:

    TudorRose said:

    moonshine said:

    Who is the “senior cabinet minister” on resignation watch? That would be a total cluster for everyone’s current tight estimates if it happened

    Raab?
    Or Patel?
    Buzzfeed are keeping a tally of confirmed backers, and she's on the list.
    Raab was all over the telly today saying what a great deal it was.

    Saj was in the papers saying the same thing.
    They both voted MV3
    Patel didn't....
  • Scott_P said:

    Brom said:

    You sound rather worried Scott. Boris looking like he might have the numbers.

    Why would that worry me?
    Common on Scott.

    Your whole DNA has been anti brexit and if this passes tomorrow you will be gutted along with many other remainers

    But if remainers are sensible they will seek to campaign to rejoin which is the obvious thing to do
    Of course we will be gutted. Boris's deal will a disaster for the future of the UK, both economically and politically. Who would wish that on their children? But it is still better than crashing out without a deal or another 3 months of faffing. May's deal would have been better, and not leaving at all would have been much better. Still, there is one silver lining: the Tories will reap over the coming year what they have sown this year.
    If May's deal would have been better why did Remainers vote with the ERG and reject May's deal?

    It was quite obvious that if May fell a harder Tory Brexiteer would inevitably become the next PM. That shouldn't be a shock!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    DavidL said:

    How many are not going to vote tomorrow? Clearly the 7 terrorists/friends of Jeremy, the Speaker (except on a tie) and 3 deputies, what about O'Mara? Anyone else?

    If that is all 638 votes, a winning line of 320. Sounds a lot without the DUP.

    All predictions seem to be based on that as the winning line. 300 is doable if ERG are on board and some ex con, you can probably squeeze to 310 if most ex con back. But Letwins move seems like it could threaten that.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    DavidL said:

    moonshine said:

    Who is the “senior cabinet minister” on resignation watch? That would be a total cluster for everyone’s current tight estimates if it happened

    IDS maybe
    He's not in the cabinet anymore. One of the few things Boris has got right!
    Considering Boris has managed to do what many like Rory said was completely impossible, and got a new deal removing the backstop, he has got more than just 'a few things' right!

    Lets not argue against Boris based on months old prejudices that have been proven wrong already.
    And there was me trying to praise him too.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited October 2019
    Chris said:

    philiph said:

    Chris said:

    philiph said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Offer Letwin an alternative. Benn letter to be transmitted if WAIB fails or not voted on by Oct 28.

    What is the bloody point? Whatever the length of the extension, we leave once the paperwork is done. We could be granted a ten-year extension, and still (in theory) leave before 31 October if we're ready.
    The point is Letwin is currently trying to force the letter tomorrow, the EU have made it pretty clear they arent going to extend, especially if the deal has been agreed (in principle in this case) so they decline an extension and no deal becomes a real possibility again if the WAIB falls.
    Only a moron like Letwin could come up with such a stupid amendment
    But of course, the EU haven't made it clear they aren't going to extend - they've just been making a lot of noises about the undesirability of extending, obviously intended to encourage MPs to vote in favour, but incapable of deceiving a small child.

    The only problem here is Johnson's idiotic self-imposed deadline. Wouldn't it be great if everyone else ignored the child in the room and started behaving like adults?
    They have stated pretty clearly any extension is for a reason.

    Johnson is unable to assure them that he or Parliament can deliver the reason for an extension. (Election or Referendum the numbers can not be guaranteed).

    That could easily lead to no extension.
    You can come out with as much wishful thinking as you like. The EU has certainly not made clear that they aren't going to extend, which was the claim.
    They will extend for a reason.

    Like to suggest some reasons they would extend for and how they are guaranteed?
    They'll extend to avoid No Deal. OK?
    They won't extend to force a deal? OK

    Why is one more likely than the other - apart from personal preference?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited October 2019
    RobD said:

    Any word on Jolyon's latest wheeze?

    Kicked out, I think, with support from Speakers office to kick it out.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    edited October 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    For reference going into meaningful vote 3 public was split 33/38 on accepting / rejecting the deal.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/03/29/meaningful-vote-3-britons-are-still-split-whether-

    They are now split 41% to 24% in favour of accepting the Deal with the same pollster.

    Main change Labour voters, 54% rejected the May Deal, only 35% reject the Boris Deal.

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1185150058855096320?s=20
    24% of Tory voters opposed the May Deal, just 9% of Tories oppose the Boris Deal.

    30% of Leavers opposed the May Deal, just 10% of Leavers oppose the Boris Deal.

    50% of Remain voters opposed the May Deal, only 41% oppose the Boris Deal as well.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    moonshine said:

    Who is the “senior cabinet minister” on resignation watch? That would be a total cluster for everyone’s current tight estimates if it happened

    IDS maybe
    He's not in the cabinet anymore. One of the few things Boris has got right!
    Considering Boris has managed to do what many like Rory said was completely impossible, and got a new deal removing the backstop, he has got more than just 'a few things' right!

    Lets not argue against Boris based on months old prejudices that have been proven wrong already.
    And there was me trying to praise him too.
    It was a bit of a backhanded compliment was it not?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,893

    DavidL said:

    How many are not going to vote tomorrow? Clearly the 7 terrorists/friends of Jeremy, the Speaker (except on a tie) and 3 deputies, what about O'Mara? Anyone else?

    If that is all 638 votes, a winning line of 320. Sounds a lot without the DUP.

    Kelvin Hopkins is a hard leaver but a pal of Jeremy, he may well abstain
    Ronnie Campbell is a green light for "old labour" to possibly vote it I reckon.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    Sterling just edged positive on the day. Has Boris got the big mo?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Chris said:

    philiph said:

    Chris said:

    philiph said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Offer Letwin an alternative. Benn letter to be transmitted if WAIB fails or not voted on by Oct 28.

    What is the bloody point? Whatever the length of the extension, we leave once the paperwork is done. We could be granted a ten-year extension, and still (in theory) leave before 31 October if we're ready.
    The point is Letwin is currently trying to force the letter tomorrow, the EU have made it pretty clear they arent going to extend, especially if the deal has been agreed (in principle in this case) so they decline an extension and no deal becomes a real possibility again if the WAIB falls.
    Only a moron like Letwin could come up with such a stupid amendment
    But of course, the EU haven't made it clear they aren't going to extend - they've just been making a lot of noises about the undesirability of extending, obviously intended to encourage MPs to vote in favour, but incapable of deceiving a small child.

    The only problem here is Johnson's idiotic self-imposed deadline. Wouldn't it be great if everyone else ignored the child in the room and started behaving like adults?
    They have stated pretty clearly any extension is for a reason.

    Johnson is unable to assure them that he or Parliament can deliver the reason for an extension. (Election or Referendum the numbers can not be guaranteed).

    That could easily lead to no extension.
    You can come out with as much wishful thinking as you like. The EU has certainly not made clear that they aren't going to extend, which was the claim.
    They will extend for a reason.

    Like to suggest some reasons they would extend for and how they are guaranteed?
    They'll extend to avoid No Deal. OK?
    And they will refuse to extend until parliament has voted. Only if the deal is voted down will they (possibly) offer an extension
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited October 2019

    DavidL said:

    How many are not going to vote tomorrow? Clearly the 7 terrorists/friends of Jeremy, the Speaker (except on a tie) and 3 deputies, what about O'Mara? Anyone else?

    If that is all 638 votes, a winning line of 320. Sounds a lot without the DUP.

    Kelvin Hopkins is a hard leaver but a pal of Jeremy, he may well abstain
    That's why I suggested Dennis Skinner.

    He is a hard leaver, a pal of Jeremy [who was a hard leaver when he was on the backbenches] and hates the Tories. I think he might combust if he voted with the Tories but backs leaving.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Scott_P said:

    Scott_P said:

    Brom said:

    You sound rather worried Scott. Boris looking like he might have the numbers.

    Why would that worry me?
    Common on Scott.

    Your whole DNA has been anti brexit and if this passes tomorrow you will be gutted along with many other remainers

    But if remainers are sensible they will seek to campaign to rejoin which is the obvious thing to do
    Clearly you haven't been paying attention.

    I have said, many times, the only way to kill the Brexit virus is for it to burn itself out.
    It's not going to burn out. You need to get a majority of parliament to revoke Article 50 and get what you wish for. This is becoming less and less likely. Carry on retweeting but your dream of overturning a democratic vote appears to be slowly dying.
  • DavidL said:

    Sterling just edged positive on the day. Has Boris got the big mo?

    Yes.

    Whether its enough is hard to tell, but he has the Big Mo.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    philiph said:

    RobD said:

    Any word on Jolyon's latest wheeze?

    Kicked out, I think, with support from Speakers office to kick it out.
    Gerry was certainly looking pretty chuffed in the reading room.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    Interesting. Just seen the first evidence of a Facebook ad campaign that looks like it might be designed to shore up BXP (at the expense of the Conservatives) but potentially funded by Remain supporters. Not 100% clear from the context but that's how it looks to me.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Chris said:

    philiph said:

    Chris said:

    philiph said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Offer Letwin an alternative. Benn letter to be transmitted if WAIB fails or not voted on by Oct 28.

    What is the bloody point? Whatever the length of the extension, we leave once the paperwork is done. We could be granted a ten-year extension, and still (in theory) leave before 31 October if we're ready.
    The point is Letwin is currently trying to force the letter tomorrow, the EU have made it pretty clear they arent going to extend, especially if the deal has been agreed (in principle in this case) so they decline an extension and no deal becomes a real possibility again if the WAIB falls.
    Only a moron like Letwin could come up with such a stupid amendment
    But of course, the EU haven't made it clear they aren't going to extend - they've just been making a lot of noises about the undesirability of extending, obviously intended to encourage MPs to vote in favour, but incapable of deceiving a small child.

    The only problem here is Johnson's idiotic self-imposed deadline. Wouldn't it be great if everyone else ignored the child in the room and started behaving like adults?
    They have stated pretty clearly any extension is for a reason.

    Johnson is unable to assure them that he or Parliament can deliver the reason for an extension. (Election or Referendum the numbers can not be guaranteed).

    That could easily lead to no extension.
    You can come out with as much wishful thinking as you like. The EU has certainly not made clear that they aren't going to extend, which was the claim.
    They will extend for a reason.

    Like to suggest some reasons they would extend for and how they are guaranteed?
    They'll extend to avoid No Deal. OK?
    And they will refuse to extend until parliament has voted. Only if the deal is voted down will they (possibly) offer an extension
    For a specific reason, election or referendum. Both of which, as things stand, Parliament has voted against enacting. So why extend?
  • DavidL said:

    How many are not going to vote tomorrow? Clearly the 7 terrorists/friends of Jeremy, the Speaker (except on a tie) and 3 deputies, what about O'Mara? Anyone else?

    If that is all 638 votes, a winning line of 320. Sounds a lot without the DUP.

    Kelvin Hopkins is a hard leaver but a pal of Jeremy, he may well abstain
    That's why I suggested Dennis Skinner.

    He is a hard leaver, a pal of Jeremy [who was a hard leaver when he was on the backbenches] and hates the Tories. I think he might combust if he voted with the Tories but backs leaving.
    I'd laugh my arse off if Skinner voted with the Tories on this, unlikely, but we seem to be so far through the looking glass now that anything is possible.

    I voted remain, but if he gets this deal through without the DUP nutters, I hope they get a massive backlash at the election. Spend all their time wanging on about the Union, but seem to be staring down the barrel of an Irish border poll if they carry on like this. Idiots.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    Is there anyone in politics with a more ironic surname than Sir Oliver Letwin?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    DavidL said:

    Sterling just edged positive on the day. Has Boris got the big mo?

    Yes.

    Whether its enough is hard to tell, but he has the Big Mo.
    Vox pops prove whatever you like but the unanimity on R4 this morning was quite impressive. People no longer care about the details, they just want it done.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    DavidL said:

    How many are not going to vote tomorrow? Clearly the 7 terrorists/friends of Jeremy, the Speaker (except on a tie) and 3 deputies, what about O'Mara? Anyone else?

    If that is all 638 votes, a winning line of 320. Sounds a lot without the DUP.

    Kelvin Hopkins is a hard leaver but a pal of Jeremy, he may well abstain
    That's why I suggested Dennis Skinner.

    He is a hard leaver, a pal of Jeremy [who was a hard leaver when he was on the backbenches] and hates the Tories. I think he might combust if he voted with the Tories but backs leaving.
    I'd laugh my arse off if Skinner voted with the Tories on this, unlikely, but we seem to be so far through the looking glass now that anything is possible.

    I voted remain, but if he gets this deal through without the DUP nutters, I hope they get a massive backlash at the election. Spend all their time wanging on about the Union, but seem to be staring down the barrel of an Irish border poll if they carry on like this. Idiots.
    Time for the clean unionists of the UUP to come back
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited October 2019

    Interesting. Just seen the first evidence of a Facebook ad campaign that looks like it might be designed to shore up BXP (at the expense of the Conservatives) but potentially funded by Remain supporters. Not 100% clear from the context but that's how it looks to me.

    We are relying on the campaigning skills of Farage and Corbyn for remain or Swinson and Johnson for leave.

    If the first 2 have great campaigns and the second two don't, we have another referendum, if it is the opposite way around we leave on Johnson's terms.

    Edit: That is if we get an election.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,358

    DavidL said:

    How many are not going to vote tomorrow? Clearly the 7 terrorists/friends of Jeremy, the Speaker (except on a tie) and 3 deputies, what about O'Mara? Anyone else?

    If that is all 638 votes, a winning line of 320. Sounds a lot without the DUP.

    Kelvin Hopkins is a hard leaver but a pal of Jeremy, he may well abstain
    Kelvin's daughter (a councillor in Luton) wants to inherit his seat. That might be a factor.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    If forced to bet on this I would back the deal passing.

    Glad I am not forced to bet on this.

    The SNP will never have hoped a vote passes despite their opposition more :D
    You think? I think this is a bad outcome for the SNP.

    This is the kind of Brexit that doesn't tip people over the edge to full blown Indy support.
    I think it will. Sturgeon is already talking about the advantages NI will have.
    Boris and Westminster will block indyref2 for the foreseeable future anyway.

    The main thing was to avoid No Deal for most Scots, this Deal does it
    We already know your attitude towards Scotland, which is they should count themselves lucky that you are not imprisoning their leaders. You are a parody account aren’t you?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    How many are not going to vote tomorrow? Clearly the 7 terrorists/friends of Jeremy, the Speaker (except on a tie) and 3 deputies, what about O'Mara? Anyone else?

    If that is all 638 votes, a winning line of 320. Sounds a lot without the DUP.

    650 - 4 tellers - 4 speakers - 7 Sinn Fein = 318 winning post with no abstentions.
    Aren't the tellers counted?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736

    Chris said:

    philiph said:

    Chris said:

    philiph said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Offer Letwin an alternative. Benn letter to be transmitted if WAIB fails or not voted on by Oct 28.

    What is the bloody point? Whatever the length of the extension, we leave once the paperwork is done. We could be granted a ten-year extension, and still (in theory) leave before 31 October if we're ready.
    The point is Letwin is currently trying to force the letter tomorrow, the EU have made it pretty clear they arent going to extend, especially if the deal has been agreed (in principle in this case) so they decline an extension and no deal becomes a real possibility again if the WAIB falls.
    Only a moron like Letwin could come up with such a stupid amendment
    But of course, the EU haven't made it clear they aren't going to extend - they've just been making a lot of noises about the undesirability of extending, obviously intended to encourage MPs to vote in favour, but incapable of deceiving a small child.

    The only problem here is Johnson's idiotic self-imposed deadline. Wouldn't it be great if everyone else ignored the child in the room and started behaving like adults?
    They have stated pretty clearly any extension is for a reason.

    Johnson is unable to assure them that he or Parliament can deliver the reason for an extension. (Election or Referendum the numbers can not be guaranteed).

    That could easily lead to no extension.
    You can come out with as much wishful thinking as you like. The EU has certainly not made clear that they aren't going to extend, which was the claim.
    They will extend for a reason.

    Like to suggest some reasons they would extend for and how they are guaranteed?
    They'll extend to avoid No Deal. OK?
    And they will refuse to extend until parliament has voted. Only if the deal is voted down will they (possibly) offer an extension
    I don't know whether you remember as long ago as half an hour, but what I was disagreeing with was this, from you: "the EU have made it pretty clear they arent going to extend, especially if the deal has been agreed"

    It seems you now disagree with it yourself.

    I really wonder what point people see in filling the thread with this kind of guff, which they're going to go back on anyway a few minutes later!
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Any idea who the 2 government ministers are in the Telegraph story? Can't think who it could be...
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    El_Capitano said: "Interesting. Just seen the first evidence of a Facebook ad campaign that looks like it might be designed to shore up BXP (at the expense of the Conservatives) but potentially funded by Remain supporters. Not 100% clear from the context but that's how it looks to me."

    Yes - I`m not surprised. Remain supporters will be mad-keen on BXP splitting the Tory vote at next GE.

    As I`ve said before, Farage/Tice et al are far too invested in their BXP project to go into reverse gear now.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    DavidL said:

    How many are not going to vote tomorrow? Clearly the 7 terrorists/friends of Jeremy, the Speaker (except on a tie) and 3 deputies, what about O'Mara? Anyone else?

    If that is all 638 votes, a winning line of 320. Sounds a lot without the DUP.

    Any Jewish mps orthodox enough not to vote on Shabbat?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Brom said:

    Any idea who the 2 government ministers are in the Telegraph story? Can't think who it could be...

    Julian Lewis is one I think
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Gabs2 said:
    That is huge. She's the first of the unknown Labour rebels to put her cards on the table. Fair fucks to her.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The likeliest Cabinet resignation must be Julian Lewis, then Theresa Villiers.

    Personally, I now expect both to stay on board.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,893
    rpjs said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    How many are not going to vote tomorrow? Clearly the 7 terrorists/friends of Jeremy, the Speaker (except on a tie) and 3 deputies, what about O'Mara? Anyone else?

    If that is all 638 votes, a winning line of 320. Sounds a lot without the DUP.

    650 - 4 tellers - 4 speakers - 7 Sinn Fein = 318 winning post with no abstentions.
    Aren't the tellers counted?
    Formally ? No.

    Handy to remember for betting lines etc.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Brom said:

    Any idea who the 2 government ministers are in the Telegraph story? Can't think who it could be...

    Julian Lewis is one I think
    didnt even realise he was a minister
  • Brom said:

    Any idea who the 2 government ministers are in the Telegraph story? Can't think who it could be...

    OK, who is particularly stupid? McVey, Truss, Williamson, Shapps

    If the deal is legally dodgy, then Buckland and Cox.

    Northern Ireland's last stand - Julian Smith

    Just for the LOLZ - Rees-Mogg and Steve Barclay

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    A not-entirely-innocent question: if Parliament adopts the Letwin amendment, what are the odds on a general election in 2019?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    philiph said:

    Chris said:

    philiph said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Offer Letwin an alternative. Benn letter to be transmitted if WAIB fails or not voted on by Oct 28.

    What is the bloody point? Whatever the length of the extension, we leave once the paperwork is done. We could be granted a ten-year extension, and still (in theory) leave before 31 October if we're ready.
    The point is Letwin is currently trying to force the letter tomorrow, the EU have made it pretty clear they arent going to extend, especially if the deal has been agreed (in principle in this case) so they decline an extension and no deal becomes a real possibility again if the WAIB falls.
    Only a moron like Letwin could come up with such a stupid amendment
    But of course, the EU haven't made it clear they aren't going to extend - they've just been making a lot of noises about the undesirability of extending, obviously intended to encourage MPs to vote in favour, but incapable of deceiving a small child.

    The only problem here is Johnson's idiotic self-imposed deadline. Wouldn't it be great if everyone else ignored the child in the room and started behaving like adults?
    They have stated pretty clearly any extension is for a reason.

    Johnson is unable to assure them that he or Parliament can deliver the reason for an extension. (Election or Referendum the numbers can not be guaranteed).

    That could easily lead to no extension.
    You can come out with as much wishful thinking as you like. The EU has certainly not made clear that they aren't going to extend, which was the claim.
    They will extend for a reason.

    Like to suggest some reasons they would extend for and how they are guaranteed?
    They'll extend to avoid No Deal. OK?
    And they will refuse to extend until parliament has voted. Only if the deal is voted down will they (possibly) offer an extension
    I don't know whether you remember as long ago as half an hour, but what I was disagreeing with was this, from you: "the EU have made it pretty clear they arent going to extend, especially if the deal has been agreed"

    It seems you now disagree with it yourself.

    I really wonder what point people see in filling the thread with this kind of guff, which they're going to go back on anyway a few minutes later!
    Yesm they arent going to even consider extending unless the deal is voted down. You seen to think theyll extend before it's even been voted on which is a ridiculous position to hold.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    Brom said:

    Any idea who the 2 government ministers are in the Telegraph story? Can't think who it could be...

    OK, who is particularly stupid? McVey, Truss, Williamson, Shapps

    If the deal is legally dodgy, then Buckland and Cox.

    Northern Ireland's last stand - Julian Smith

    Just for the LOLZ - Rees-Mogg and Steve Barclay

    Julian Smith, if anyone is on resignation watch.
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    DavidL said:

    How many are not going to vote tomorrow? Clearly the 7 terrorists/friends of Jeremy, the Speaker (except on a tie) and 3 deputies, what about O'Mara? Anyone else?

    If that is all 638 votes, a winning line of 320. Sounds a lot without the DUP.

    Any Jewish mps orthodox enough not to vote on Shabbat?
    Ivan Lewis?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Brom said:

    Brom said:

    Any idea who the 2 government ministers are in the Telegraph story? Can't think who it could be...

    Julian Lewis is one I think
    didnt even realise he was a minister
    I meant julian smith
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    edited October 2019
    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    If forced to bet on this I would back the deal passing.

    Glad I am not forced to bet on this.

    The SNP will never have hoped a vote passes despite their opposition more :D
    You think? I think this is a bad outcome for the SNP.

    This is the kind of Brexit that doesn't tip people over the edge to full blown Indy support.
    I think it will. Sturgeon is already talking about the advantages NI will have.
    Boris and Westminster will block indyref2 for the foreseeable future anyway.

    The main thing was to avoid No Deal for most Scots, this Deal does it
    We already know your attitude towards Scotland, which is they should count themselves lucky that you are not imprisoning their leaders. You are a parody account aren’t you?
    Well the Spanish government has now set a precedent by jailing Catalan nationalists for holding an unauthorised independence referendum
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    edited October 2019

    DavidL said:

    How many are not going to vote tomorrow? Clearly the 7 terrorists/friends of Jeremy, the Speaker (except on a tie) and 3 deputies, what about O'Mara? Anyone else?

    If that is all 638 votes, a winning line of 320. Sounds a lot without the DUP.

    Kelvin Hopkins is a hard leaver but a pal of Jeremy, he may well abstain
    That's why I suggested Dennis Skinner.

    He is a hard leaver, a pal of Jeremy [who was a hard leaver when he was on the backbenches] and hates the Tories. I think he might combust if he voted with the Tories but backs leaving.
    I'd laugh my arse off if Skinner voted with the Tories on this, unlikely, but we seem to be so far through the looking glass now that anything is possible.

    I voted remain, but if he gets this deal through without the DUP nutters, I hope they get a massive backlash at the election. Spend all their time wanging on about the Union, but seem to be staring down the barrel of an Irish border poll if they carry on like this. Idiots.
    With Farage now a remain supporting defender of the Benn Act it is an amazing time.

    The DUP think they are the only ones who care about the UK. I've yet to read the changes so dont know if their concerns are right, but its certainly true that since they always moan self righteously it's hard to tell when they have a point.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Brom said:

    Gabs2 said:
    That is huge. She's the first of the unknown Labour rebels to put her cards on the table. Fair fucks to her.
    Shes part of MPs for a deal
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Brom said:

    Gabs2 said:
    That is huge. She's the first of the unknown Labour rebels to put her cards on the table. Fair fucks to her.
    Shes part of MPs for a deal
    Is K Vaz in that group?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    edited October 2019
    "Shes part of MPs for a deal"

    That`s a very encouraging development for those who want the deal to pass.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    philiph said:

    Brom said:

    Gabs2 said:
    That is huge. She's the first of the unknown Labour rebels to put her cards on the table. Fair fucks to her.
    Shes part of MPs for a deal
    Is K Vaz in that group?
    No he is not
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Brom said:

    Brom said:

    Any idea who the 2 government ministers are in the Telegraph story? Can't think who it could be...

    Julian Lewis is one I think
    didnt even realise he was a minister
    I meant julian smith
    He tweeted in support of the deal yesterday (unless he is having his doubts).
    Not too worried though.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    How many are not going to vote tomorrow? Clearly the 7 terrorists/friends of Jeremy, the Speaker (except on a tie) and 3 deputies, what about O'Mara? Anyone else?

    If that is all 638 votes, a winning line of 320. Sounds a lot without the DUP.

    Kelvin Hopkins is a hard leaver but a pal of Jeremy, he may well abstain
    That's why I suggested Dennis Skinner.

    He is a hard leaver, a pal of Jeremy [who was a hard leaver when he was on the backbenches] and hates the Tories. I think he might combust if he voted with the Tories but backs leaving.
    I'd laugh my arse off if Skinner voted with the Tories on this, unlikely, but we seem to be so far through the looking glass now that anything is possible.

    I voted remain, but if he gets this deal through without the DUP nutters, I hope they get a massive backlash at the election. Spend all their time wanging on about the Union, but seem to be staring down the barrel of an Irish border poll if they carry on like this. Idiots.
    With Farage now a remain supporting defender of the Benn Act it is an amazing time.

    The DUP think they are the only ones who care about the UK. I've yet to read the changes so dont know if their concerns are right, but its certainly true that since they always moan self righteously it's hard to tell when they have a point.
    The DUP are completely correct from their perspective. I'm astonished that the Scottish Conservative MPs aren't having canaries over the precedent it sets.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    My hunch is that Boris will sneak this. He will get is way, we will Brexit and he will own the consequences. The question is what will those consequences be.

    Will he do better than the winning side in ScotRef?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    I suspect the Tories will whip against Letwin's amendment and whip for the Boris Deal
    Really? You think so? Wow.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772
    Stocky said:

    "Shes part of MPs for a deal"

    That`s a very encouraging development for those who want the deal to pass.

    Good on her.

    Anecdote alert, but pretty much everyone who’s spoken to me today about this has said it’s time to accept the deal and move on now. I feel a definite shift in mood.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    How many are not going to vote tomorrow? Clearly the 7 terrorists/friends of Jeremy, the Speaker (except on a tie) and 3 deputies, what about O'Mara? Anyone else?

    If that is all 638 votes, a winning line of 320. Sounds a lot without the DUP.

    Kelvin Hopkins is a hard leaver but a pal of Jeremy, he may well abstain
    That's why I suggested Dennis Skinner.

    He is a hard leaver, a pal of Jeremy [who was a hard leaver when he was on the backbenches] and hates the Tories. I think he might combust if he voted with the Tories but backs leaving.
    I'd laugh my arse off if Skinner voted with the Tories on this, unlikely, but we seem to be so far through the looking glass now that anything is possible.

    I voted remain, but if he gets this deal through without the DUP nutters, I hope they get a massive backlash at the election. Spend all their time wanging on about the Union, but seem to be staring down the barrel of an Irish border poll if they carry on like this. Idiots.
    With Farage now a remain supporting defender of the Benn Act it is an amazing time.

    The DUP think they are the only ones who care about the UK. I've yet to read the changes so dont know if their concerns are right, but its certainly true that since they always moan self righteously it's hard to tell when they have a point.
    Another slightly annoying thing about Farage's criticism of the deal etc... The Brexit Party schtick at the Euros was "This is about more than the referendum vote, its about democracy and trust" to paraphrase. I think that implied taking a deal
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Andrew said:
    If it is 'in' double figures, then 10 is the minimum?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Mr. Rose, Lord Adonis.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    "Anecdote alert, but pretty much everyone who’s spoken to me today about this has said it’s time to accept the deal and move on now. I feel a definite shift in mood."

    So do I - but I`m not sure of the effect that the Letwin amendment will have. Makes betting very tricky.
  • kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    How many are not going to vote tomorrow? Clearly the 7 terrorists/friends of Jeremy, the Speaker (except on a tie) and 3 deputies, what about O'Mara? Anyone else?

    If that is all 638 votes, a winning line of 320. Sounds a lot without the DUP.

    Kelvin Hopkins is a hard leaver but a pal of Jeremy, he may well abstain
    That's why I suggested Dennis Skinner.

    He is a hard leaver, a pal of Jeremy [who was a hard leaver when he was on the backbenches] and hates the Tories. I think he might combust if he voted with the Tories but backs leaving.
    I'd laugh my arse off if Skinner voted with the Tories on this, unlikely, but we seem to be so far through the looking glass now that anything is possible.

    I voted remain, but if he gets this deal through without the DUP nutters, I hope they get a massive backlash at the election. Spend all their time wanging on about the Union, but seem to be staring down the barrel of an Irish border poll if they carry on like this. Idiots.
    With Farage now a remain supporting defender of the Benn Act it is an amazing time.

    The DUP think they are the only ones who care about the UK. I've yet to read the changes so dont know if their concerns are right, but its certainly true that since they always moan self righteously it's hard to tell when they have a point.
    The DUP are completely correct from their perspective. I'm astonished that the Scottish Conservative MPs aren't having canaries over the precedent it sets.
    That assumes a level of collective intelligence and gumption that the SCon MPs do not possess.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2019
    ...
  • isam said:

    Seems to be a bot laying 2.3 for £2 as many times as you like on Betfair on the deal passing

    Malfunctioning bot?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    The no deal threat and the hysteria wasn’t for the EU, it was for the U.K.
  • SNP back on again wanting a GE ASAP.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2019

    isam said:

    Seems to be a bot laying 2.3 for £2 as many times as you like on Betfair on the deal passing

    Malfunctioning bot?
    I think it was a frozen Betfair my end!

    2.2 is there though... Can @AndyJS knock up a spreadsheet please, so we can get the money??!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,893

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    How many are not going to vote tomorrow? Clearly the 7 terrorists/friends of Jeremy, the Speaker (except on a tie) and 3 deputies, what about O'Mara? Anyone else?

    If that is all 638 votes, a winning line of 320. Sounds a lot without the DUP.

    Kelvin Hopkins is a hard leaver but a pal of Jeremy, he may well abstain
    That's why I suggested Dennis Skinner.

    He is a hard leaver, a pal of Jeremy [who was a hard leaver when he was on the backbenches] and hates the Tories. I think he might combust if he voted with the Tories but backs leaving.
    I'd laugh my arse off if Skinner voted with the Tories on this, unlikely, but we seem to be so far through the looking glass now that anything is possible.

    I voted remain, but if he gets this deal through without the DUP nutters, I hope they get a massive backlash at the election. Spend all their time wanging on about the Union, but seem to be staring down the barrel of an Irish border poll if they carry on like this. Idiots.
    With Farage now a remain supporting defender of the Benn Act it is an amazing time.

    The DUP think they are the only ones who care about the UK. I've yet to read the changes so dont know if their concerns are right, but its certainly true that since they always moan self righteously it's hard to tell when they have a point.
    The DUP are completely correct from their perspective. I'm astonished that the Scottish Conservative MPs aren't having canaries over the precedent it sets.
    That assumes a level of collective intelligence and gumption that the SCon MPs do not possess.
    Loads know they're toast at the next GE so best to keep nose clean with the party for future jobs.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    I think the deal has a good chance of passing but not until MPs have seen the WAIB.

    And also for Labour MPs they need to see what proposals Johnson is putting forward on workers rights etc.

    This rush to get the deal through is just for Bozos pledge , the EU want the deal to go through but aren’t bothered if it takes a few more weeks .

    They’re not going to say no extension if the deal is likely to pass.
  • Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    How many are not going to vote tomorrow? Clearly the 7 terrorists/friends of Jeremy, the Speaker (except on a tie) and 3 deputies, what about O'Mara? Anyone else?

    If that is all 638 votes, a winning line of 320. Sounds a lot without the DUP.

    Kelvin Hopkins is a hard leaver but a pal of Jeremy, he may well abstain
    That's why I suggested Dennis Skinner.

    He is a hard leaver, a pal of Jeremy [who was a hard leaver when he was on the backbenches] and hates the Tories. I think he might combust if he voted with the Tories but backs leaving.
    I'd laugh my arse off if Skinner voted with the Tories on this, unlikely, but we seem to be so far through the looking glass now that anything is possible.

    I voted remain, but if he gets this deal through without the DUP nutters, I hope they get a massive backlash at the election. Spend all their time wanging on about the Union, but seem to be staring down the barrel of an Irish border poll if they carry on like this. Idiots.
    With Farage now a remain supporting defender of the Benn Act it is an amazing time.

    The DUP think they are the only ones who care about the UK. I've yet to read the changes so dont know if their concerns are right, but its certainly true that since they always moan self righteously it's hard to tell when they have a point.
    The DUP are completely correct from their perspective. I'm astonished that the Scottish Conservative MPs aren't having canaries over the precedent it sets.
    That assumes a level of collective intelligence and gumption that the SCon MPs do not possess.
    Loads know they're toast at the next GE so best to keep nose clean with the party for future jobs.
    Only the three border MPs have a strong chance of holding, and lord knows the likes of Ross Thomson and Kirstene Hair are unemployable in the real world.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    philiph said:

    Chris said:

    philiph said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:


    What is the bloody point? Whatever the length of the extension, we leave once the paperwork is done. We could be granted a ten-year extension, and still (in theory) leave before 31 October if we're ready.

    The point is Letwin is currently trying to force the letter tomorrow, the EU have made it pretty clear they arent going to extend, especially if the deal has been agreed (in principle in this case) so they decline an extension and no deal becomes a real possibility again if the WAIB falls.
    Only a moron like Letwin could come up with such a stupid amendment
    But of course, the EU haven't made it clear they aren't going to extend - they've just been making a lot of noises about the undesirability of extending, obviously intended to encourage MPs to vote in favour, but incapable of deceiving a small child.

    The only problem here is Johnson's idiotic self-imposed deadline. Wouldn't it be great if everyone else ignored the child in the room and started behaving like adults?
    They have stated pretty clearly any extension is for a reason.

    Johnson is unable to assure them that he or Parliament can deliver the reason for an extension. (Election or Referendum the numbers can not be guaranteed).

    That could easily lead to no extension.
    You can come out with as much wishful thinking as you like. The EU has certainly not made clear that they aren't going to extend, which was the claim.
    They will extend for a reason.

    Like to suggest some reasons they would extend for and how they are guaranteed?
    They'll extend to avoid No Deal. OK?
    And they will refuse to extend until parliament has voted. Only if the deal is voted down will they (possibly) offer an extension
    I don't know whether you remember as long ago as half an hour, but what I was disagreeing with was this, from you: "the EU have made it pretty clear they arent going to extend, especially if the deal has been agreed"

    It seems you now disagree with it yourself.

    I really wonder what point people see in filling the thread with this kind of guff, which they're going to go back on anyway a few minutes later!
    Yesm they arent going to even consider extending unless the deal is voted down. You seen to think theyll extend before it's even been voted on which is a ridiculous position to hold.
    It's no use pretending you can't read - it only makes you look foolish.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    philiph said:

    Andrew said:
    If it is 'in' double figures, then 10 is the minimum?
    You don't say.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,893
    Forgive me what is the WAIB

    Withdrawal Agreement IB ?

    IB = ?
This discussion has been closed.