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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Good thread if your head is starting to spin with all this Letwin stuff:

    https://twitter.com/DomWalsh13/status/1185202755603980290
  • HYUFD said:

    so Ross is safe

    Call me psychic, but I'm guessing you haven't hammered the 7/4 Lads are offering on Ross retaining his seat.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,268
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    How many are not going to vote tomorrow? Clearly the 7 terrorists/friends of Jeremy, the Speaker (except on a tie) and 3 deputies, what about O'Mara? Anyone else?

    If that is all 638 votes, a winning line of 320. Sounds a lot without the DUP.

    Kelvin Hopkins is a hard leaver but a pal of Jeremy, he may well abstain
    That's why I suggested Dennis Skinner.

    He is a hard leaver, a pal of Jeremy [who was a hard leaver when he was on the backbenches] and hates the Tories. I think he might combust if he voted with the Tories but backs leaving.
    I'd laugh my arse off if Skinner voted with the Tories on this, unlikely, but we seem to be so far through the looking glass now that anything is possible.

    I voted remain, but if he gets this deal through without the DUP nutters, I hope they get a massive backlash at the election. Spend all their time wanging on about the Union, but seem to be staring down the barrel of an Irish border poll if they carry on like this. Idiots.
    With Farage now a remain supporting defender of the Benn Act it is an amazing time.

    The DUP think they are the only ones who care about the UK. I've yet to read the changes so dont know if their concerns are right, but its certainly true that since they always moan self righteously it's hard to tell when they have a point.
    The DUP are completely correct from their perspective. I'm astonished that the Scottish Conservative MPs aren't having canaries over the precedent it sets.
    Last time I checked Scotland had not had a terrorist war for decades and did not border another EU nation unlike Northern Ireland
    I've already pointed out to you

    (a) the shamefulness of denying the Scots a referendum just cos they don't start a terrorist campaign

    (b) that Scotland has a land border with another EU nation, ie England, and maritime ones with others. ,
    a) Scotland had a referendum in 2014 and voted No, given the SNP have refused to respect the results of the 2014 and 2016 referendums I have no problem in refusing them another.
    b) Scotlsnd is part of the UK, England is not a separate sovereign nation unlike the Republic of Ireland
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823

    Things appear to be moving Bozo's way. My predictions are looking a bit shaky.

    I suppose the one consolation for Labour Leavers if he does win the vote is that we will actually leave. But not on the right terms or with the right political consequences.

    Those Labour MPs who are prepared to hoist Bozo aloft as if he has brought home the world cup need to hang their heads in shame. I used to hold Sarah Champion in high regard. More fool me.

    Look on the bright side, if said Labour MPs get in they don't have to worry about pesky things like EU state aid rules. :p
  • RobD said:

    Things appear to be moving Bozo's way. My predictions are looking a bit shaky.

    I suppose the one consolation for Labour Leavers if he does win the vote is that we will actually leave. But not on the right terms or with the right political consequences.

    Those Labour MPs who are prepared to hoist Bozo aloft as if he has brought home the world cup need to hang their heads in shame. I used to hold Sarah Champion in high regard. More fool me.

    Look on the bright side, if said Labour MPs get in they don't have to worry about pesky things like EU state aid rules. :p
    Nationalised subsidised Pret lunches all round...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    Things appear to be moving Bozo's way. My predictions are looking a bit shaky.

    I suppose the one consolation for Labour Leavers if he does win the vote is that we will actually leave. But not on the right terms or with the right political consequences.

    Those Labour MPs who are prepared to hoist Bozo aloft as if he has brought home the world cup need to hang their heads in shame. I used to hold Sarah Champion in high regard. More fool me.

    Will BF pay up on a vote for the WA deal tomorrow if has been lobotomized by Letwin?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Little Englander in indecisive mode.. Pfffff
  • Any idea how the non-Tory Independents like Frank Field etc will vote?
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Scott_P said:
    That is just fundamentally not true. The UK can sign FTAs and negotiate tariff rates under the Boris deal, which was impossible under the backstop. An independent trade policy is a major shift, it is not fiddling at the edges.

    Remainers are having to jump from one ridiculous argument to another at the moment.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited October 2019


    Will BF pay up on a vote for the WA deal tomorrow if has been lobotomized by Letwin?

    It might be a problem - the title is meaningful vote, and on that date only.

    Rules:
    "If this vote does not take place on 19/10/2019 this market will be voided."

    but also ….

    "For clarity if the House of Commons vote to amend the motion then this market will be settled on the vote on the Government Motion AS AMENDED"
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    I can't even work out if the Letwin amendment helps or hinders Boris.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Have I missed something?

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.163824572

    This market is free money surely if Letwin amends it be a simple nodding job with a view to the real debate being next week?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,268

    The vote tomorrow is a watershed moment. If Johnson wins tomorrow, then he romps home in a GE. And, HYUFD will tell you the exact number of MPs the Tories will have. The SNP will be other winner.

    If the deal passes, then the GE becomes very unpredictable. Johnson won't get a thank you card from the electorate.
    If Boris gets his Deal through it will be with Labour votes, so Remainers will keep voting LD who will campaign on a rejoin platform while Boris will have stopped most of his leakage to the Brexit Party having delivered Brexit
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    Any idea how the non-Tory Independents like Frank Field etc will vote?

    Field has said all should vote for the deal.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    nico67 said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    One thing that did puzzle me yesterday was a BBC report hat - according to Guy Verhofstadt - the European Parliament wouldn't ratify the deal until well into November. Can that really be correct?

    The new EP only begins on Nov 1. So, yes.
    Is the old EP not sitting?
    It is sitting next week.

    But in any case, if Article 50 requires ratification of the agreement by the European Parliament, how can we leave before that happens?
    Juncker confirms that the European Parliament will pass the deal next week if the HOC passes the deal
    It’s irrelevant the EU Parliament can only ratify after the full UK process which isn’t going to happen in 5 days .
    Actually, Article 50 speaks of the leaving country and the EU Council concluding an agreement only after ratification by the European Parliament, not before.

    Again, Juncker said the ratification in the EU Parliament will happen next week if deal passed
    Do you have a link for that please?
    Live on Sky after deal announced yesterday
    Well, does anyone else remember hearing it?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    Scott_P said:
    Letwin and Grieve have a revolving door on Bercow's office so no... ;)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    RobD said:
    Ka f*ing boom!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    nico67 said:

    kle4 said:

    nico67 said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    One thing that did puzzle me yesterday was a BBC report hat - according to Guy Verhofstadt - the European Parliament wouldn't ratify the deal until well into November. Can that really be correct?

    The new EP only begins on Nov 1. So, yes.
    Is the old EP not sitting?
    It is sitting next week.

    But in any case, if Article 50 requires ratification of the agreement by the European Parliament, how can we leave before that happens?
    Juncker confirms that the European Parliament will pass the deal next week if the HOC passes the deal
    If Juncker did say that, it's the opposite of what Verhofstadt said.
    Exactly . Juncker has no sway over the EU Parliament, Bozo has been on the phone to say please put pressure on MPs.

    Guy V has said they won’t start ratification until the deal is a 100% watertight in the UK.

    Too many Leavers are falling for these briefings and equally falling for the no extension nonsense .
    In fairness too many of us fell for briefings about no reopening of the WA .
    The EU reopened it because it suited them , they always hated the all UK backstop .
    Perhaps but they said they wouldn't reopen it and they did, we got sucked in by their briefings.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965

    RobD said:

    Things appear to be moving Bozo's way. My predictions are looking a bit shaky.

    I suppose the one consolation for Labour Leavers if he does win the vote is that we will actually leave. But not on the right terms or with the right political consequences.

    Those Labour MPs who are prepared to hoist Bozo aloft as if he has brought home the world cup need to hang their heads in shame. I used to hold Sarah Champion in high regard. More fool me.

    Look on the bright side, if said Labour MPs get in they don't have to worry about pesky things like EU state aid rules. :p
    Nationalised subsidised Pret lunches all round...
    I'll be lobbying to nationalise Greggs first.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    HYUFD said:

    The vote tomorrow is a watershed moment. If Johnson wins tomorrow, then he romps home in a GE. And, HYUFD will tell you the exact number of MPs the Tories will have. The SNP will be other winner.

    If the deal passes, then the GE becomes very unpredictable. Johnson won't get a thank you card from the electorate.
    If Boris gets his Deal through it will be with Labour votes, so Remainers will keep voting LD who will campaign on a rejoin platform while Boris will have stopped most of his leakage to the Brexit Party having delivered Brexit
    Alternatively it will give people the ability to vote for the Brexit Party without risking Brexit not happening.
  • Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    nico67 said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    One thing that did puzzle me yesterday was a BBC report hat - according to Guy Verhofstadt - the European Parliament wouldn't ratify the deal until well into November. Can that really be correct?

    The new EP only begins on Nov 1. So, yes.
    Is the old EP not sitting?
    It is sitting next week.

    But in any case, if Article 50 requires ratification of the agreement by the European Parliament, how can we leave before that happens?
    Juncker confirms that the European Parliament will pass the deal next week if the HOC passes the deal
    It’s irrelevant the EU Parliament can only ratify after the full UK process which isn’t going to happen in 5 days .
    Actually, Article 50 speaks of the leaving country and the EU Council concluding an agreement only after ratification by the European Parliament, not before.

    Again, Juncker said the ratification in the EU Parliament will happen next week if deal passed
    Do you have a link for that please?
    Live on Sky after deal announced yesterday
    Well, does anyone else remember hearing it?
    I have no idea but I hope you are not suggesting I am inaccurately quoting the interview
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    I think this Letwin amendment is going to go badly with the public. The man on the street hears a reasonable deal has been done, but Remain MPs are engaging in jiggery-pokery to stop it going through and keep us in the EU. I think it will help Boris.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    edited October 2019
    Chris said: "Well, does anyone else remember hearing it?"

    Yes, and I recall thinking at the time that it was somewhat vague and i got the impression that he was trying to help Boris get deal through HOC.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    Here's the BBC item I was referring to:
    When will the European Parliament approve the deal?

    The European Parliament's Brexit co-ordinator is suggesting the formal approval of a deal by MEPs could come after 31 October, when the UK is currently scheduled to leave the EU.

    Any EU-UK Brexit withdrawal deal also needs the official backing of the European Parliament.

    But Guy Verhofstadt says the EU legislature will take its full time to carefully examine and approve the plans.

    MEPs will only start their work once the UK Parliament has passed a fully binding Brexit deal, he says, adding it could well have to be picked up in a session beginning on 13 November.

    The parliament "will only start its work from the moment that we are 100% sure that the British Parliament will adopt this deal", Mr Verhofstadt says.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-50079596/page/2
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Have I missed something?

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.163824572

    This market is free money surely if Letwin amends it be a simple nodding job with a view to the real debate being next week?

    Betting on these markets with ambiguous rules is a real ballache
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823
    Scott_P said:
    How is it simultaneously a no deal and a surrender to the EU?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    nico67 said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    One thing that did puzzle me yesterday was a BBC report hat - according to Guy Verhofstadt - the European Parliament wouldn't ratify the deal until well into November. Can that really be correct?

    The new EP only begins on Nov 1. So, yes.
    Is the old EP not sitting?
    It is sitting next week.

    But in any case, if Article 50 requires ratification of the agreement by the European Parliament, how can we leave before that happens?
    Juncker confirms that the European Parliament will pass the deal next week if the HOC passes the deal
    It’s irrelevant the EU Parliament can only ratify after the full UK process which isn’t going to happen in 5 days .
    Actually, Article 50 speaks of the leaving country and the EU Council concluding an agreement only after ratification by the European Parliament, not before.

    Again, Juncker said the ratification in the EU Parliament will happen next week if deal passed
    Do you have a link for that please?
    Live on Sky after deal announced yesterday
    Well, does anyone else remember hearing it?
    I have no idea but I hope you are not suggesting I am inaccurately quoting the interview
    You're not quoting it at all. If you wrote down what he said, it would certainly help if you could quote his exact words.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    The government should surely offer an amendment like Letwins but that IS an MV as well
    Give the idiot his insurance policy but force a proper meaningful vote too
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Chris said:

    Here's the BBC item I was referring to:
    When will the European Parliament approve the deal?

    The European Parliament's Brexit co-ordinator is suggesting the formal approval of a deal by MEPs could come after 31 October, when the UK is currently scheduled to leave the EU.

    Any EU-UK Brexit withdrawal deal also needs the official backing of the European Parliament.

    But Guy Verhofstadt says the EU legislature will take its full time to carefully examine and approve the plans.

    MEPs will only start their work once the UK Parliament has passed a fully binding Brexit deal, he says, adding it could well have to be picked up in a session beginning on 13 November.

    The parliament "will only start its work from the moment that we are 100% sure that the British Parliament will adopt this deal", Mr Verhofstadt says.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-50079596/page/2

    Clearly Letwin, Hammond, Verhofstadt etc are coordinating just to delay Brexit for the sake of hurting Johnson. They don't care about uncertainty or the UK, but a personal vendetta.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    edited October 2019
    This is what Juncker said yesterday:

    “We have concluded a deal and so there is not an argument for further delay. It has to be done now,” Mr Juncker told reporters on the doorstep of the European Council summit.
    “We have a deal. The British prime minister has to make sure that the deal will pass the hurdles of Westminster. I have to make sure it will pass the hurdles of the European Parliament, that’s all.”
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Brom said:

    I can't even work out if the Letwin amendment helps or hinders Boris.

    It allows the Tory rebels to vote for the deal as it will definitely rule out no deal at the end of October .

    It will embarrass Johnson though as he has to ask for an extension . And it will give MPs more time to amend the WAIB .

    Because of suspicion that the ERG might vote for the deal tomorrow and then pull support once we get to the WAIB the anti no dealers are still worried .
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    Gabs2 said:

    I think this Letwin amendment is going to go badly with the public. The man on the street hears a reasonable deal has been done, but Remain MPs are engaging in jiggery-pokery to stop it going through and keep us in the EU. I think it will help Boris.

    I wonder if the DUP could vote against Letwin? For the shitz n gigglez.....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823
    edited October 2019
    nico67 said:

    Brom said:

    I can't even work out if the Letwin amendment helps or hinders Boris.

    It allows the Tory rebels to vote for the deal as it will definitely rule out no deal at the end of October .

    It will embarrass Johnson though as he has to ask for an extension . And it will give MPs more time to amend the WAIB .

    Because of suspicion that the ERG might vote for the deal tomorrow and then pull support once we get to the WAIB the anti no dealers are still worried .
    What do MPs hope to achieve by amending the bill? It won't change one word of the agreement with the EU.

    And if anti no-dealers are so worried about that, why are they making the first vote meaningless?
  • Chris said:

    Here's the BBC item I was referring to:
    When will the European Parliament approve the deal?

    The European Parliament's Brexit co-ordinator is suggesting the formal approval of a deal by MEPs could come after 31 October, when the UK is currently scheduled to leave the EU.

    Any EU-UK Brexit withdrawal deal also needs the official backing of the European Parliament.

    But Guy Verhofstadt says the EU legislature will take its full time to carefully examine and approve the plans.

    MEPs will only start their work once the UK Parliament has passed a fully binding Brexit deal, he says, adding it could well have to be picked up in a session beginning on 13 November.

    The parliament "will only start its work from the moment that we are 100% sure that the British Parliament will adopt this deal", Mr Verhofstadt says.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-50079596/page/2

    The word is 'suggested' but Juncker was stating that the Commission will pass the deal next week if it passes the HOC
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153

    The government should surely offer an amendment like Letwins but that IS an MV as well
    Give the idiot his insurance policy but force a proper meaningful vote too

    Yes that's clearly what the government shoud/will do.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    nico67 said:

    Brom said:

    I can't even work out if the Letwin amendment helps or hinders Boris.

    It allows the Tory rebels to vote for the deal as it will definitely rule out no deal at the end of October .

    It will embarrass Johnson though as he has to ask for an extension . And it will give MPs more time to amend the WAIB .

    Because of suspicion that the ERG might vote for the deal tomorrow and then pull support once we get to the WAIB the anti no dealers are still worried .
    The Remain alliance are following the Chinese Community Party approach. They know they can't win in a fair debate so are engaging in guerilla warfare. This is why people hate politicians.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    edited October 2019

    Chris said:

    Here's the BBC item I was referring to:
    When will the European Parliament approve the deal?

    The European Parliament's Brexit co-ordinator is suggesting the formal approval of a deal by MEPs could come after 31 October, when the UK is currently scheduled to leave the EU.

    Any EU-UK Brexit withdrawal deal also needs the official backing of the European Parliament.

    But Guy Verhofstadt says the EU legislature will take its full time to carefully examine and approve the plans.

    MEPs will only start their work once the UK Parliament has passed a fully binding Brexit deal, he says, adding it could well have to be picked up in a session beginning on 13 November.

    The parliament "will only start its work from the moment that we are 100% sure that the British Parliament will adopt this deal", Mr Verhofstadt says.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-50079596/page/2

    The word is 'suggested' but Juncker was stating that the Commission will pass the deal next week if it passes the HOC
    I believe you Big G.

    EU wants us gone on 31st October along with Juncker. They don't want us hanging around into the new Parliament.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,268

    Gabs2 said:

    I think this Letwin amendment is going to go badly with the public. The man on the street hears a reasonable deal has been done, but Remain MPs are engaging in jiggery-pokery to stop it going through and keep us in the EU. I think it will help Boris.

    I wonder if the DUP could vote against Letwin? For the shitz n gigglez.....
    The DUP will vote against Letwin as well as the Boris Deal
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    If 10 labour back the deal and 1 ld does (as FT predict, presumably Lamb) then a larger percentage of the latter will have backed Brexit than Labour.

    If lamb is considering it he should resign the whip like lloyd so the party retains the bettrr remain credentials!
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,687
    France is the biggest EU winner from Brexit - it hopes to poach more business from the UK and the UK's exit removes one of the principal counter-weights to French influence over EU policy. Germany is probably the biggest loser.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    Labour shortening in Uxbridge and South Ruislip (Boris Johnson MP)

    Con 1/3
    Lab 3/1
    LD 12/1
    Bxp 20/1

    On the latest polls Boris will increase his majority
    Take a look at Theresa May’s polling curve. Polls are a snapshot, not a prediction.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    rottenborough said: "Have I missed something?

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.163824572

    This market is free money surely if Letwin amends it be a simple nodding job with a view to the real debate being next week?"

    I think this market would be voided under Betfair rules as the vote wouldn`t happen 19/10/2019.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    nico67 said:

    Brom said:

    I can't even work out if the Letwin amendment helps or hinders Boris.

    It allows the Tory rebels to vote for the deal as it will definitely rule out no deal at the end of October .

    It will embarrass Johnson though as he has to ask for an extension . And it will give MPs more time to amend the WAIB .

    Because of suspicion that the ERG might vote for the deal tomorrow and then pull support once we get to the WAIB the anti no dealers are still worried .
    If the deal passes I'm sure Boris can ask for an extension half heartedly and his new chums in the EU will just reject it. Laughter all round.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    Stocky said:

    Chris said: "Well, does anyone else remember hearing it?"

    Yes, and I recall thinking at the time that it was somewhat vague and i got the impression that he was trying to help Boris get deal through HOC.

    You see, what the communique says is:
    "Before the Withdrawal Agreement can enter into force, it needs to be ratified by the EU and the UK. For the EU, the Council of the European Union must authorise the signature of the Withdrawal Agreement, before sending it to the European Parliament for its consent. The United Kingdom must ratify the agreement according to its own constitutional arrangements."

    Nothing about when the Parliament will ratify it, and nothing about that ratification being conditional on the UK parliament's approval.

    If the EU Parliament is really going to wait for the UK Parliament, and if the Letwin amendment is passed tomorrow, so that the UK parliament will not approve the deal until the enabling legislation is passed, then it probably won't be possible for the EU Parliament to ratify it before 31 October, because the last day it sits is Thursday 24th.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,268
    Brom said:

    I can't even work out if the Letwin amendment helps or hinders Boris.

    The Letwin amendment is irrelevant as Macron will veto further extension if the Deal is rejected unless something major changes like EUref2.

    The Kyle amendment is therefore more of a challenge for Boris than Letwin

    https://twitter.com/peterkyle/status/1185215551267921920?s=20
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    How is it simultaneously a no deal and a surrender to the EU?
    Surrender now.
    Intentionally fail to agree an FTA by December 2020
    Crash out of europe on 31st December 2020 taking NI with us.

    It's simple
  • NorthstarNorthstar Posts: 140
    Gabs2 said:

    nico67 said:

    Brom said:

    I can't even work out if the Letwin amendment helps or hinders Boris.

    It allows the Tory rebels to vote for the deal as it will definitely rule out no deal at the end of October .

    It will embarrass Johnson though as he has to ask for an extension . And it will give MPs more time to amend the WAIB .

    Because of suspicion that the ERG might vote for the deal tomorrow and then pull support once we get to the WAIB the anti no dealers are still worried .
    The Remain alliance are following the Chinese Community Party approach. They know they can't win in a fair debate so are engaging in guerilla warfare. This is why people hate politicians.
    Agreed - also really not sure why people think this will embarrass Johnson with his potential voters rather than solidify them behind him against those who vote the Letwin amendment through.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    Scott_P said:
    Ok hes starting to get a bit unreasonable now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,268
    edited October 2019

    HYUFD said:

    The vote tomorrow is a watershed moment. If Johnson wins tomorrow, then he romps home in a GE. And, HYUFD will tell you the exact number of MPs the Tories will have. The SNP will be other winner.

    If the deal passes, then the GE becomes very unpredictable. Johnson won't get a thank you card from the electorate.
    If Boris gets his Deal through it will be with Labour votes, so Remainers will keep voting LD who will campaign on a rejoin platform while Boris will have stopped most of his leakage to the Brexit Party having delivered Brexit
    Alternatively it will give people the ability to vote for the Brexit Party without risking Brexit not happening.
    Only 17% of voters now back No Deal so Boris can live with that given the Remain/Rejoin vote will be split between the LDs and Labour

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1185150452758802433?s=20
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    Gabs2 said:

    I think this Letwin amendment is going to go badly with the public. The man on the street hears a reasonable deal has been done, but Remain MPs are engaging in jiggery-pokery to stop it going through and keep us in the EU. I think it will help Boris.

    You think they care what the public thinks?

    Remain is hanging by a thread now... These are desperate times for the Rabble Alliance...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    HYUFD said:

    Brom said:

    I can't even work out if the Letwin amendment helps or hinders Boris.

    The Letwin amendment is irrelevant as Macron will veto further extension if the Deal is rejected unless something major changes like EUref2.

    The Kyle amendment is therefore more of a challenge for Boris than Letwin

    https://twitter.com/peterkyle/status/1185215551267921920?s=20
    The amendment is to Motion 2.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    Gabs2 said:

    Chris said:

    Here's the BBC item I was referring to:
    When will the European Parliament approve the deal?

    The European Parliament's Brexit co-ordinator is suggesting the formal approval of a deal by MEPs could come after 31 October, when the UK is currently scheduled to leave the EU.

    Any EU-UK Brexit withdrawal deal also needs the official backing of the European Parliament.

    But Guy Verhofstadt says the EU legislature will take its full time to carefully examine and approve the plans.

    MEPs will only start their work once the UK Parliament has passed a fully binding Brexit deal, he says, adding it could well have to be picked up in a session beginning on 13 November.

    The parliament "will only start its work from the moment that we are 100% sure that the British Parliament will adopt this deal", Mr Verhofstadt says.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-50079596/page/2

    Clearly Letwin, Hammond, Verhofstadt etc are coordinating just to delay Brexit for the sake of hurting Johnson. They don't care about uncertainty or the UK, but a personal vendetta.

    Good thread if your head is starting to spin with all this Letwin stuff:

    https://twitter.com/DomWalsh13/status/1185202755603980290

    Maybe Juncker can have a word in the Speaker's shell-like... I'm sure he must have his number on speed-dial.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    HYUFD said:

    Brom said:

    I can't even work out if the Letwin amendment helps or hinders Boris.

    The Letwin amendment is irrelevant as Macron will veto further extension if the Deal is rejected unless something major changes like EUref2.

    The Kyle amendment is therefore more of a challenge for Boris than Letwin

    https://twitter.com/peterkyle/status/1185215551267921920?s=20
    I support a referendum but I dont like phrase confirmatory ballot as it suggests to me mps are sending it to us with their collective stamp of approval, when a majority in fact will be desperate for a rejection.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    edited October 2019

    Chris said:

    Here's the BBC item I was referring to:
    When will the European Parliament approve the deal?

    The European Parliament's Brexit co-ordinator is suggesting the formal approval of a deal by MEPs could come after 31 October, when the UK is currently scheduled to leave the EU.

    Any EU-UK Brexit withdrawal deal also needs the official backing of the European Parliament.

    But Guy Verhofstadt says the EU legislature will take its full time to carefully examine and approve the plans.

    MEPs will only start their work once the UK Parliament has passed a fully binding Brexit deal, he says, adding it could well have to be picked up in a session beginning on 13 November.

    The parliament "will only start its work from the moment that we are 100% sure that the British Parliament will adopt this deal", Mr Verhofstadt says.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-50079596/page/2

    The word is 'suggested' but Juncker was stating that the Commission will pass the deal next week if it passes the HOC
    When you say the Commission, do you mean the Parliament? That's what we're talking about.
  • We must be getting close to the mooted double-digits for Labour.

    The whips need to have a word with Letwin and put a motion of their own in exchange for him dropping his.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    edited October 2019
    I'm surprised that Betfair have Deal passes at 2.3. I make that the probable outcome.

    And gosh what an incredible (!) climax this is. A Saturday vote to finally Leave, right in the middle of a massive Remain demo.

    Brexit has been compelling, intellectually and emotionally. It's been like a top quality box set, except better.

    We will miss it when it's gone.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    edited October 2019
    Sky Europe Editor has just said the leaders had left their meeting yesterday before the Letwin amendment came to light and said that one source has commented that one thing that will infuriate EU leaders is if they are being gamed by British politicians, and this feels like they are being gamed

    He said to watch this space as there might not be as much good will for an extension as there was 24 hours ago

    And for those who doubt my words play Sky news at approx 5.15 tonight
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,268

    HYUFD said:

    Labour shortening in Uxbridge and South Ruislip (Boris Johnson MP)

    Con 1/3
    Lab 3/1
    LD 12/1
    Bxp 20/1

    On the latest polls Boris will increase his majority
    Take a look at Theresa May’s polling curve. Polls are a snapshot, not a prediction.
    Corbyn had diehard Remainers in 2917 who will vote LD not Labour now, especially if the Boris Deal passes with Labour votes.

    Boris is also running a populist tax cut and spend campaign, not the unpopular tax rise and more austerity May campaign
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,268

    HYUFD said:

    Labour shortening in Uxbridge and South Ruislip (Boris Johnson MP)

    Con 1/3
    Lab 3/1
    LD 12/1
    Bxp 20/1

    On the latest polls Boris will increase his majority
    Take a look at Theresa May’s polling curve. Polls are a snapshot, not a prediction.
    Corbyn had diehard Remainers in 2917 who will vote LD not Labour now, especially if the Boris Deal passes with Labour votes.

    Boris is also running a populist tax cut and spend campaign, not the unpopular tax rise and more austerity May campaign
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The vote tomorrow is a watershed moment. If Johnson wins tomorrow, then he romps home in a GE. And, HYUFD will tell you the exact number of MPs the Tories will have. The SNP will be other winner.

    If the deal passes, then the GE becomes very unpredictable. Johnson won't get a thank you card from the electorate.
    If Boris gets his Deal through it will be with Labour votes, so Remainers will keep voting LD who will campaign on a rejoin platform while Boris will have stopped most of his leakage to the Brexit Party having delivered Brexit
    Alternatively it will give people the ability to vote for the Brexit Party without risking Brexit not happening.
    Only 17% of voters now back No Deal so Boris can live with that given the Remain/Rejoin vote will be split between the LDs and Labour

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1185150452758802433?s=20
    Where is the option to leave with a better (Labour) deal?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    edited October 2019

    Good thread if your head is starting to spin with all this Letwin stuff:

    https://twitter.com/DomWalsh13/status/1185202755603980290

    So that's a delay the big vote decision then. If it sounds like that is passing we can spare ourselves following the proceedings then, the big fights will be later.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Dan Hodges is clueless as can be confirmed by his latest tweet .

    The Benn Act falls away once the MV4 goes through. It’s irrelevant if that’s amended to say a further extension is needed because the MV4 is not legally binding . Only the WAIB is once that gets Royal Consent .

    Jeez he needs to stop embarrassing himself .
  • Don't panic! Jez has a plan* AND a briefing from Laura Pidcock.

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1185229646599770114


    *asking nicely to vote against
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Brom said:

    I can't even work out if the Letwin amendment helps or hinders Boris.

    The Letwin amendment is irrelevant as Macron will veto further extension if the Deal is rejected unless something major changes like EUref2.

    The Kyle amendment is therefore more of a challenge for Boris than Letwin

    https://twitter.com/peterkyle/status/1185215551267921920?s=20
    I support a referendum but I dont like phrase confirmatory ballot as it suggests to me mps are sending it to us with their collective stamp of approval, when a majority in fact will be desperate for a rejection.
    A referendum re-run is the accurate term.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Melanie Onn is a yes. Mps for a deal for a deal it seems
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    FT saying Johnson has notional majority of 2 following Onn announcement.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited October 2019
    That the 10th declared Lab MP? Onn, Stringer, Mann, Campbell, Flint, Fitzpatrick, Barron, Champion, Snell, Smeeth.

    Has Rosie Cooper said anything yet?
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,121

    Melanie Onn is a yes. Mps for a deal for a deal it seems

    She's Onn board.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    BF still has deal passing at 2.2.

    DYOR
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    It's absolutely disgraceful that Parliament is open when England and Ireland are playing in the Rugby World Cup.

    Do we not have any boundaries any more?

    only in cricket.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    kle4 said:

    I support a referendum but I dont like phrase confirmatory ballot as it suggests to me mps are sending it to us with their collective stamp of approval, when a majority in fact will be desperate for a rejection.

    Absolutely right. It is not a 'Confirmatory' vote. It is a Second Referendum.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823

    FT saying Johnson has notional majority of 2 following Onn announcement.

    And still several hours to go... :p
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    GIN1138 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    I think this Letwin amendment is going to go badly with the public. The man on the street hears a reasonable deal has been done, but Remain MPs are engaging in jiggery-pokery to stop it going through and keep us in the EU. I think it will help Boris.

    You think they care what the public thinks?

    Remain is hanging by a thread now... These are desperate times for the Rabble Alliance...
    Remain's best chance since 2016 has always been Rejoin. But they are insisting on giving pro-Europeans a terrible reputation.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823
    Drutt said:

    Melanie Onn is a yes. Mps for a deal for a deal it seems

    She's Onn board.
    Game Onn!

    These puns write themselves...
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Rumblings on Twitter that the EU are highly pissed off about letwins amendment
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153

    Sky Europe Editor has just said the leaders had left their meeting yesterday before the Letwin amendment came to light and said that one source has commented that one thing that will infuriate EU leaders is if they are being gamed by British politicians, and this feels like they are being gamed

    He said to watch this space as there might not be as much good will for an extension as there was 24 hours ago

    And for those who doubt my words play Sky news at approx 5.15 tonight

    As I said the EU wants us gone on 31st October so the new Parliament can start with a clean slate on 1st November.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Ok hes starting to get a bit unreasonable now.
    "Plus: use of this swivel chair....."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_72jEeaC_gE
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823

    Rumblings on Twitter that the EU are highly pissed off about letwins amendment

    Remainers don't know when to give up... e.g. Jolyon's case.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    edited October 2019

    Rumblings on Twitter that the EU are highly pissed off about letwins amendment

    I've been highly pissed off about LetwIn since around 2001 so join the club EU! :D
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    edited October 2019
    RobD said:

    FT saying Johnson has notional majority of 2 following Onn announcement.

    And still several hours to go... :p
    Or weeks, if the Letwin amendment passes ...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    HYUFD said:

    The Letwin amendment is irrelevant as Macron will veto further extension if the Deal is rejected unless something major changes like EUref2.

    I'm sure an extension will be granted for any of GE, Ref2, or to finalize this Deal.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    RobD said:

    Rumblings on Twitter that the EU are highly pissed off about letwins amendment

    Remainers don't know when to give up... e.g. Jolyon's case.
    Oh what happened with Jolyon?
  • NorthstarNorthstar Posts: 140
    GIN1138 said:

    Sky Europe Editor has just said the leaders had left their meeting yesterday before the Letwin amendment came to light and said that one source has commented that one thing that will infuriate EU leaders is if they are being gamed by British politicians, and this feels like they are being gamed

    He said to watch this space as there might not be as much good will for an extension as there was 24 hours ago

    And for those who doubt my words play Sky news at approx 5.15 tonight

    As I said the EU wants us gone on 31st October so the new Parliament can start with a clean slate on 1st November.
    Perhaps this is where the ‘Orban gambit‘ comes into play, with tacit approval from the EU?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2019
    GIN1138 said:

    Rumblings on Twitter that the EU are highly pissed off about letwins amendment

    I've been highly pissed off about LetwIn since around 2001 so join the club EU! :D
    These sort of know it all, smart arse shenanigans from MPs are the reason Leave won
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823
    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    FT saying Johnson has notional majority of 2 following Onn announcement.

    And still several hours to go... :p
    Or weeks, if the Letwin amendment passes ...
    Yet more pointless delays!
  • GIN1138 said:

    Sky Europe Editor has just said the leaders had left their meeting yesterday before the Letwin amendment came to light and said that one source has commented that one thing that will infuriate EU leaders is if they are being gamed by British politicians, and this feels like they are being gamed

    He said to watch this space as there might not be as much good will for an extension as there was 24 hours ago

    And for those who doubt my words play Sky news at approx 5.15 tonight

    As I said the EU wants us gone on 31st October so the new Parliament can start with a clean slate on 1st November.
    Indeed, those trying to drag this on for silly buggers will get short shrift.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    RobD said:

    Drutt said:

    Melanie Onn is a yes. Mps for a deal for a deal it seems

    She's Onn board.
    Game Onn!

    These puns write themselves...
    Is she the leader of the Labour for Bozo group? Should we describe the rest of them as Onnanists?
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Ok hes starting to get a bit unreasonable now.
    "Plus: use of this swivel chair..."
    It is a ridiculous position. After demanding (and proving) that parliament is now sovereign, Hammond et al are now claiming they can't vote this through because parliament will be rolled over with no FTA in a secret plan?

    Parliament can extend at will, can choose whichever government they want to negotiate, can hold an election at any time.

    These really are the dregs of arguments being rolled out.

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1185232780684419072?s=19

    Feel bad for the fools that crowdfunded this nonsense
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The vote tomorrow is a watershed moment. If Johnson wins tomorrow, then he romps home in a GE. And, HYUFD will tell you the exact number of MPs the Tories will have. The SNP will be other winner.

    If the deal passes, then the GE becomes very unpredictable. Johnson won't get a thank you card from the electorate.
    If Boris gets his Deal through it will be with Labour votes, so Remainers will keep voting LD who will campaign on a rejoin platform while Boris will have stopped most of his leakage to the Brexit Party having delivered Brexit
    Alternatively it will give people the ability to vote for the Brexit Party without risking Brexit not happening.
    Only 17% of voters now back No Deal so Boris can live with that given the Remain/Rejoin vote will be split between the LDs and Labour

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1185150452758802433?s=20
    Where is the option to leave with a better (Labour) deal?
    Labour aren't going to get a better deal, since they've confirmed they would campaign against their own deal why would the EU engage in negotiations with them?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1185232780684419072?s=19

    Feel bad for the fools that crowdfunded this nonsense

    Cadawaller should investigate the funding
This discussion has been closed.