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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There is little from the betting to indicate which way punters

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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Is tomorrow shaping up to be an anti-climax as a result of Letwin's amendment? Assuming it passes, it must make a 2019 election much less likely - in that by the time the Withdrawal Bill is enacted no election could be held before mid- December, which would be far too close to Christmas. It still makes it unclear that the Queens Speech will be approved. Ditto the Budget on November 6th. Will the DUP be in any mood to support the Government in either of those votes?
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    nichomar said:

    Zephyr said:

    kle4 said:

    Saw that coming a mile away. Anything to not take a stand.

    All MPs should stop the delays - they will feel better when they make a decisive call, whatever it is, a load will have dropped.
    When you say Labour MP in leave constituency, is the constituency Labour party members leave or very Pro remain 😊

    The idea of pressure is utter fantasy. :). Because there’s remain MPs very much in leave constituency’s, like Jess Phillips who are safe as houses voting remain in Parliament. She’s not losing to a Tory or Brexit candidate in the next election. 😊 is she? Ah there’s the nub of your fantasy if seat predictor from polling says she is. the seat predicator result in front of you, but you have a brain between your ears, you have capacity to know what’s really is going to happen.

    forty labour rebels talked up for MV3 the last ever MV. These MPs posture for the media, but vote how their local labour members will want them to vote confident they are safe in a GE.

    Boris is going to lose by forty tomorrow.
    Jess Phillips loses to the LibDems. On the seat projectors.
    She won’t though but she is a one off love her or hate her.
    On Labour's by-election performance last night, she is toast as a Labour MP, even if you love her.

    66. That is the number of Labour MPs left on the basis of that Kent by-election last night.

    66.

    Labour needs to move the argument away from Brexit. Fast. Hence the nod and a wink from Corbyn that nothing much will happen to those backing Boris's Deal.
    A pointless request to you but you must have noticed a number of us have run up the white flag and want to move on to the next stage, so maybe you can stop gloating and join us discussing the next stage?
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,135
    GIN1138 said:

    Peston on ITV News predicting Letwin will pass and next week we're into complete chaos.

    *%^"$£*^ Letwin!!! :D

    Why is it complete chaos? If the Letwin amendment passes, and then the amended motion passes, that will be understood as deferred approval of the deal.

    The only difference that makes is that the WAIB will be passed before the meaningful vote takes place. Everything can go ahead just as Johnson planned, except that there will need to be a final vote in the Commons at the end of the process.

    If Johnson is right about it being feasible to pass the WAIB by 31 October, then we can still leave by that date. The only unwelcome thing for him would be that the Benn Act forces him to ask for an extension. But if he's right about the timetable, he will never need to use the extension, and it may not even be necessary for the EU to offer it.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,897
    edited October 2019

    GIN1138 said:

    Peston on ITV News predicting Letwin will pass and next week we're into complete chaos.

    *%^"$£*^ Letwin!!! :D

    Letwin sees the deal pass and Boris puts the Withdrawal Bill through the HOC next week. In the meantime the EU respond to any extension by saying you have time !!!
    How much time? If they take it to mean the deal is passed, just waiting for the legislation to pass, then there's no need to offer an extension longer than is necessary to pass it. Why would Grieve, one of the backers of the amendment, possibly support something that led to that outcome?
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    nunuone said:

    nico67 said:

    I think some in here are getting confused as to what a motion is v what a Bill is .

    The WAIB (withdrawal and implementation bill)is what’s needed to satisfy the provisions of Article 50.

    Tomorrow’s vote is a motion . It’s simply a device to allow MPs to say yes or no to a proposition .

    The motion by itself does not constitute law , only a Bill does that as it moves through its stages . It then receives Royal Assent turning it into an Act of Parliament.

    So the Letwin thing is a motion? And the government can ignore it?
    I know it’s a bit confusing . Once the government motion is amended it’s not a meaningful vote and therefore no longer nullifies the Benn Act . That’s the key point .
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    New thread.
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    nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    nico67 said:

    nunuone said:

    nico67 said:

    I think some in here are getting confused as to what a motion is v what a Bill is .

    The WAIB (withdrawal and implementation bill)is what’s needed to satisfy the provisions of Article 50.

    Tomorrow’s vote is a motion . It’s simply a device to allow MPs to say yes or no to a proposition .

    The motion by itself does not constitute law , only a Bill does that as it moves through its stages . It then receives Royal Assent turning it into an Act of Parliament.

    So the Letwin thing is a motion? And the government can ignore it?
    I know it’s a bit confusing . Once the government motion is amended it’s not a meaningful vote and therefore no longer nullifies the Benn Act . That’s the key point .
    So if the governments motion is amended they will have to bring forward new legislation that nullified (in some way) the Benn Act?
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    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    There is no point attacking Johnson. He has played his hand superbly. The 70% of young people who have been betrayed should put the blame squarely where it lies. On the shoulders of Jeremy Corbyn.
    Actually, I do not hold John McDonnell, whose name is always uttered under the same breath with Corbyn, responsible. He has been very sensible and has pursued well argued economic policies. Sadly all this has been in vain with the posho public school educated Trots who control the Labour Party now - until the sure humiliation which awaits us at the next election.
    I do care who is the next leader: Emily, Yvette or even John but we have wasted 4 years now with a leader with little intellectual grasp.

    In fairness I would hold him responsible for Brexit but I am still too busy blaming him for the Iraq war and fracking. If he really wanted another referendum on Brexit, or wanted to stop the Iraq war or wanted to stop fracking he would press the secret red button in his office, but has hasn't, just goes through the silly charade of voting on them in parliament as if that is the way to stop legislation passing...

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