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  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Apologies if this has already been mentioned, but what time are the votes expected tomorrow? I need to know what time to get up and log on to BBC Parliament via the VPN.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,215
    Refusal for an extension I'd say is unlikely from the EU when push and shove come - but it's not completely out the question.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    Scott_P said:
    We should all think about how we core
    Especially under the guidance of the Food and Drink Federation...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,215

    Scott_P said:
    We should all think about how we core
    Ah yes I remember Smith's fulsome support for May's deal... oh wait.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2019

    isam said:

    Gabs2 said:

    https://twitter.com/denisstaunton/status/1185182801383038976?s=20

    Rebel alliance silly buggery has a bit of a problemo.

    Looks like the game is up.
    Is it too simplistic to back the deal to fail at 1.8 and No Deal at 7.8? 67%ish book
    Free money, no. Value? I think so.
    Hang on, I've got that wrong haven't I?

    Back the deal to pass and No deal is the play... at better odds!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    Scott_P said:
    Boris to go back to Brussels tonight and say "Sorry guys, deal is off. Head of the Food and Drink Federation preferred the previous version...."

  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Scott_P said:
    Ian Dunt on Remainiacs the other day said their plan was to delay the deal and then engage in guerilla warfare against miniscule detail to try and bleed support for it.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    If forced to bet on this I would back the deal passing.

    Glad I am not forced to bet on this.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    As I see it each side is grossly exaggerating the negatives to influence their argument

    If the deal falls tomorrow and Boris writes a letter the EU will say have another go next week, you have time.

    However, if the HOC were to pass a referendum tomorrow that is very different but Corbyn is not putting forward that amendment

    If the SNP want to try a vonc on Boris, Corbyn will not vote for it as he is terrified of a wipeout

    So if neither a GE or a referendum is voted for tomorrow the EU will almost certainly confirm it is this deal or no deal

    And Corbyn will be the most responsible for Brexit

    Even more responsible than David Cameron? I think not.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Offer Letwin an alternative. Benn letter to be transmitted if WAIB fails or not voted on by Oct 28.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited October 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    Refusal for an extension I'd say is unlikely from the EU when push and shove come - but it's not completely out the question.

    Refusal is more likely because they will only grant it for Election / Referendum, not more dicking about.

    Our PM is unable to guarantee an election (Parliament voted against one twice in September) of Referendum (indicative vote against one earlier in the year in May time).

    If he has to say I cannot assure you that either of these conditions will be met, then how or why will the extension be granted? Such uncertainty and trust in HoC would be likely to result in one or more dissenting voices in the EU 27. If the PM won't make the undertaking to comply with the requirements for an extension, who can or will?

    Also I don't see how quoting recent events verbatim is against the spirit or fact of the Benn Law.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    Scott_P said:
    I suspect the Tories will whip against Letwin's amendment and whip for the Boris Deal
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,215
    Most MPs will stick with their vote till the end I expect. I think only a couple changed between Cooper-Boles 1st, 2nd and 3rd reading.
  • As I see it each side is grossly exaggerating the negatives to influence their argument

    If the deal falls tomorrow and Boris writes a letter the EU will say have another go next week, you have time.

    However, if the HOC were to pass a referendum tomorrow that is very different but Corbyn is not putting forward that amendment

    If the SNP want to try a vonc on Boris, Corbyn will not vote for it as he is terrified of a wipeout

    So if neither a GE or a referendum is voted for tomorrow the EU will almost certainly confirm it is this deal or no deal

    And Corbyn will be the most responsible for Brexit

    Even more responsible than David Cameron? I think not.
    I have never understood the line that David Cameron is to blame. He passed the referendum and we voted. We voted to leave (I voted remain) but if we had voted to remain you would not blame him
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236

    Gabs2 said:

    If its true that 9 Labour MPs have come out in favour of the deal then I think its over, that should be enough *touch wood*

    With Trimble backing the deal too, the DUP should come to their senses and say that on reflection this deal requires NIs consent which was their red line so they can suppor tthis and incidentally there's another billion or two coming to NI to aid with transition.

    Of course, the DUP switching at the last moment would almost certainly guarantee this Deal gets over the line. If it wants this deal done, perhaps Brussels could agree to pay for that bridge....
    I can't see DUP switching now purely on a bribe. It would be too obvious.
    They'd brazen it out. "This is what the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom should have done. We told him that holding out gets results...."
    They'd brazen it out. "That is what the Prime Minister does."
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,215
    Alistair said:

    If forced to bet on this I would back the deal passing.

    Glad I am not forced to bet on this.

    The SNP will never have hoped a vote passes despite their opposition more :D
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited October 2019
    If benn is triggered and declined (on the basis the deal has been agreed in principle so there is no need to extend), the last line of defence for remainers/anti no dealers is gone and they risk no deal on any hiccup. They should be keeping the ace up their sleeve
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited October 2019

    As I see it each side is grossly exaggerating the negatives to influence their argument

    If the deal falls tomorrow and Boris writes a letter the EU will say have another go next week, you have time.

    However, if the HOC were to pass a referendum tomorrow that is very different but Corbyn is not putting forward that amendment

    If the SNP want to try a vonc on Boris, Corbyn will not vote for it as he is terrified of a wipeout

    So if neither a GE or a referendum is voted for tomorrow the EU will almost certainly confirm it is this deal or no deal

    And Corbyn will be the most responsible for Brexit

    Very brave of you as a Tory voter in 2015, 2017 and likely in the next GE to put the responsibility for Brexit on those who have voted against the proposal (or will) and for another referendum....

    The kind of taking responsibility for your own actions Johnson would be proud of. I just wonder how plausible you would find it if there was a Labour government putting through policies that the Conservatives didn't have the numbers to defeat or change and then blaming them on the Conservatives...

    Pretty unlikely I reckon. You are happy to accept Brexit as the cost of voting Tory so wouldn't it be more honest to own that rather than try to blame your opponents because you want to shirk responsibility for Brexit.
    I have voted conservative all my life apart from twice for Blair and of course I support this deal as it fulfills my ambition to leave the EU without causing a no deal and respects the referendum

    Corbyn could at this late stage put down a referendum amendment tomorrow and say he would campaign to remain but he is too much of a coward to make the decision and is going to pay a big price at the ballot box
    Right, so as someone who wants this Brexit deal to go through can't you see why you might actually have responsibility as opposed to people who don't want it to go through?

    Corbyn has whipped for remain before and even made it party policy, but you are too much of an partisan to make the decision to look up that information. It was your Tory party that you vote for that defeated Corbyn and his party when we have repeatedly voted for a second referendum.

    The responsibility for us not having a second referendum and us doing Brexit lies almost completely with the Conservative party. As someone who actually wants Brexit to happen it doesn't make sense for you to be looking to blame opponents.

    Own your achievements or at least take the Topping route of accepting its crap but preferring the Conservatives for other reasons. A Conservative voter blaming others for Brexit is BS.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798

    Scott_P said:
    Boris to go back to Brussels tonight and say "Sorry guys, deal is off. Head of the Food and Drink Federation preferred the previous version...."

    Yes, we've lost the support of one of our most competitive sectors that employs millions of people. But on the upside we now have Mark Francois on board. Full speed ahead for Global Britain, aka the Ship of Fools.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,132
    edited October 2019
    Scott_P said:
    Must have read my post but who is tabling

    And of course if that is lost that ends the referendum extension with the EU
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236

    As I see it each side is grossly exaggerating the negatives to influence their argument

    If the deal falls tomorrow and Boris writes a letter the EU will say have another go next week, you have time.

    However, if the HOC were to pass a referendum tomorrow that is very different but Corbyn is not putting forward that amendment

    If the SNP want to try a vonc on Boris, Corbyn will not vote for it as he is terrified of a wipeout

    So if neither a GE or a referendum is voted for tomorrow the EU will almost certainly confirm it is this deal or no deal

    And Corbyn will be the most responsible for Brexit

    Even more responsible than David Cameron? I think not.
    I have never understood the line that David Cameron is to blame. He passed the referendum...
    ..., having ignored Osborne's advice, assumed he'd win at a canter, held the referendum prematurely, and ran a crap remain campaign.

    Apart from that, moderately blameless
  • HoC are going to go full on silly buggery aren't they.
  • Floater said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Stocky said:

    Bercow votes against the deal to keep status-quo

    Yes. Nothing to do with him being a leaver or remainer, he has to vote down the WA if there's a tie as normal protocol (Speaker can not make new laws)
    The irony of Bercow causing us to leave with no deal would be off the scale
    Brexit: The Uncivil War 2 is shaping up to be quite a film.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    Offer Letwin an alternative. Benn letter to be transmitted if WAIB fails or not voted on by Oct 28.

    What is the bloody point? Whatever the length of the extension, we leave once the paperwork is done. We could be granted a ten-year extension, and still (in theory) leave before 31 October if we're ready.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405

    As I see it each side is grossly exaggerating the negatives to influence their argument

    If the deal falls tomorrow and Boris writes a letter the EU will say have another go next week, you have time.

    However, if the HOC were to pass a referendum tomorrow that is very different but Corbyn is not putting forward that amendment

    If the SNP want to try a vonc on Boris, Corbyn will not vote for it as he is terrified of a wipeout

    So if neither a GE or a referendum is voted for tomorrow the EU will almost certainly confirm it is this deal or no deal

    And Corbyn will be the most responsible for Brexit

    Even more responsible than David Cameron? I think not.
    I have never understood the line that David Cameron is to blame. He passed the referendum and we voted. We voted to leave (I voted remain) but if we had voted to remain you would not blame him
    Cameron should never have got himself into the position where there was a referendum.

    Beyond that he deserves all the scorn for running one of the worst campaigns I've ever seen...
  • As I see it each side is grossly exaggerating the negatives to influence their argument

    If the deal falls tomorrow and Boris writes a letter the EU will say have another go next week, you have time.

    However, if the HOC were to pass a referendum tomorrow that is very different but Corbyn is not putting forward that amendment

    If the SNP want to try a vonc on Boris, Corbyn will not vote for it as he is terrified of a wipeout

    So if neither a GE or a referendum is voted for tomorrow the EU will almost certainly confirm it is this deal or no deal

    And Corbyn will be the most responsible for Brexit

    Very brave of you as a Tory voter in 2015, 2017 and likely in the next GE to put the responsibility for Brexit on those who have voted against the proposal (or will) and for another referendum....

    The kind of taking responsibility for your own actions Johnson would be proud of. I just wonder how plausible you would find it if there was a Labour government putting through policies that the Conservatives didn't have the numbers to defeat or change and then blaming them on the Conservatives...

    Pretty unlikely I reckon. You are happy to accept Brexit as the cost of voting Tory so wouldn't it be more honest to own that rather than try to blame your opponents because you want to shirk responsibility for Brexit.
    I have voted conservative all my life apart from twice for Blair and of course I support this deal as it fulfills my ambition to leave the EU without causing a no deal and respects the referendum

    Corbyn could at this late stage put down a referendum amendment tomorrow and say he would campaign to remain but he is too much of a coward to make the decision and is going to pay a big price at the ballot box
    Right, so as someone who wants this Brexit deal to go through can't you see why you might actually have responsibility as opposed to people who don't want it to go through?

    Corbyn has whipped for remain before and even made it party policy, but you are too much of an partisan to make the decision to look up that information. It was your Tory party that you vote for that defeated Corbyn and his party when we have repeatedly voted for a second referendum.

    The responsibility for us not having a second referendum and us doing Brexit lies almost completely with the Conservative party. As someone who actually wants Brexit to happen it doesn't make sense for you to be looking to blame opponents.

    Own your achievements or at least take the Topping route of accepting its crap but preferring the Conservatives for other reasons. A Conservative voter blaming others for Brexit is BS.
    I just disagree with you and that is the way it is
  • HoC are going to go full on silly buggery aren't they.

    I think that's an absolute certainty.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,215


    Very brave of you as a Tory voter in 2015, 2017 and likely in the next GE to put the responsibility for Brexit on those who have voted against the proposal (or will) and for another referendum....

    Unless we're getting into the realms of thought crimes the key vote was in 2016 for Brexit.
    You voted to leave iirc and Big G voted to remain. Labour had a commitment to leave the EU iirc in the 2017 election too.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Chris said:

    Offer Letwin an alternative. Benn letter to be transmitted if WAIB fails or not voted on by Oct 28.

    What is the bloody point? Whatever the length of the extension, we leave once the paperwork is done. We could be granted a ten-year extension, and still (in theory) leave before 31 October if we're ready.
    The point is Letwin is currently trying to force the letter tomorrow, the EU have made it pretty clear they arent going to extend, especially if the deal has been agreed (in principle in this case) so they decline an extension and no deal becomes a real possibility again if the WAIB falls.
    Only a moron like Letwin could come up with such a stupid amendment
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    HoC are going to go full on silly buggery aren't they.

    And the electorate will watch and wait for their turn...
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    Scott_P said:
    Except, Beth, any one EU leader can say "Sod it. That's it. No more extensions." And then that action by one becomes the EU's default position of the 27.
    The nuclear button is also with Remainers if necessary. If all else fails, VoNC the government, new GNU government and then REVOKE. All legal.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Scott_P said:
    You sound rather worried Scott. Boris looking like he might have the numbers.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    As I see it each side is grossly exaggerating the negatives to influence their argument

    If the deal falls tomorrow and Boris writes a letter the EU will say have another go next week, you have time.

    However, if the HOC were to pass a referendum tomorrow that is very different but Corbyn is not putting forward that amendment

    If the SNP want to try a vonc on Boris, Corbyn will not vote for it as he is terrified of a wipeout

    So if neither a GE or a referendum is voted for tomorrow the EU will almost certainly confirm it is this deal or no deal

    And Corbyn will be the most responsible for Brexit

    Even more responsible than David Cameron? I think not.
    I have never understood the line that David Cameron is to blame. He passed the referendum and we voted. We voted to leave (I voted remain) but if we had voted to remain you would not blame him
    How could any Tory possibly bear any responsibility, after all you vote for them...

    It was all the nasty oppositions fault.
  • Nigelb said:

    As I see it each side is grossly exaggerating the negatives to influence their argument

    If the deal falls tomorrow and Boris writes a letter the EU will say have another go next week, you have time.

    However, if the HOC were to pass a referendum tomorrow that is very different but Corbyn is not putting forward that amendment

    If the SNP want to try a vonc on Boris, Corbyn will not vote for it as he is terrified of a wipeout

    So if neither a GE or a referendum is voted for tomorrow the EU will almost certainly confirm it is this deal or no deal

    And Corbyn will be the most responsible for Brexit

    Even more responsible than David Cameron? I think not.
    I have never understood the line that David Cameron is to blame. He passed the referendum...
    ..., having ignored Osborne's advice, assumed he'd win at a canter, held the referendum prematurely, and ran a crap remain campaign.

    Apart from that, moderately blameless
    We can agree on the campaign but I do not blame him for calling a referendum
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    Pulpstar said:

    Stocky said:

    Bercow votes against the deal to keep status-quo

    Yes. Nothing to do with him being a leaver or remainer, he has to vote down the WA if there's a tie as normal protocol (Speaker can not make new laws)
    I thought that the protocol was that the Speaker voted with the government of the day in the event of a tie.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Brom said:

    You sound rather worried Scott. Boris looking like he might have the numbers.

    Why would that worry me?
  • DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Stocky said:

    Bercow votes against the deal to keep status-quo

    Yes. Nothing to do with him being a leaver or remainer, he has to vote down the WA if there's a tie as normal protocol (Speaker can not make new laws)
    I thought that the protocol was that the Speaker voted with the government of the day in the event of a tie.

    Protocol is to vote for the status quo. Which is certainly not the deal, although it is arguably not not the deal either...
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1vOxwapRAMoGB

    Anyone watching the spacewalks live ?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited October 2019

    As I see it each side is grossly exaggerating the negatives to influence their argument

    If the deal falls tomorrow and Boris writes a letter the EU will say have another go next week, you have time.

    However, if the HOC were to pass a referendum tomorrow that is very different but Corbyn is not putting forward that amendment

    If the SNP want to try a vonc on Boris, Corbyn will not vote for it as he is terrified of a wipeout

    So if neither a GE or a referendum is voted for tomorrow the EU will almost certainly confirm it is this deal or no deal

    And Corbyn will be the most responsible for Brexit

    Even more responsible than David Cameron? I think not.
    I have never understood the line that David Cameron is to blame. He passed the referendum and we voted. We voted to leave (I voted remain) but if we had voted to remain you would not blame him
    He put party before country. He held the referendum early to try and give the tories more time to heal before the next election. He refused to go blue on blue even as his ministers undermined him and lied. He adopted an entire campaigning strategy based on the idea the Sindy Ref campaign had been a success.

    And all to avoid shedding a few percentage points to UKIP.

    Cameron was a fucking failure and hugely responsible.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Stocky said:

    Bercow votes against the deal to keep status-quo

    Yes. Nothing to do with him being a leaver or remainer, he has to vote down the WA if there's a tie as normal protocol (Speaker can not make new laws)
    I thought that the protocol was that the Speaker voted with the government of the day in the event of a tie.

    Protocol is to vote for the status quo. Which is certainly not the deal, although it is arguably not not the deal either...
    The status quo is not no deal (per Benn), bercow votes for a deal
  • Scott_P said:
    Except, Beth, any one EU leader can say "Sod it. That's it. No more extensions." And then that action by one becomes the EU's default position of the 27.
    The nuclear button is also with Remainers if necessary. If all else fails, VoNC the government, new GNU government and then REVOKE. All legal.
    Sounds like utter desperation
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Labour shortening in Uxbridge and South Ruislip (Boris Johnson MP)

    Con 1/3
    Lab 3/1
    LD 12/1
    Bxp 20/1
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    eek said:

    As I see it each side is grossly exaggerating the negatives to influence their argument

    If the deal falls tomorrow and Boris writes a letter the EU will say have another go next week, you have time.

    However, if the HOC were to pass a referendum tomorrow that is very different but Corbyn is not putting forward that amendment

    If the SNP want to try a vonc on Boris, Corbyn will not vote for it as he is terrified of a wipeout

    So if neither a GE or a referendum is voted for tomorrow the EU will almost certainly confirm it is this deal or no deal

    And Corbyn will be the most responsible for Brexit

    Even more responsible than David Cameron? I think not.
    I have never understood the line that David Cameron is to blame. He passed the referendum and we voted. We voted to leave (I voted remain) but if we had voted to remain you would not blame him
    Cameron should never have got himself into the position where there was a referendum.

    Beyond that he deserves all the scorn for running one of the worst campaigns I've ever seen...
    Absolutely.

    The fact that over 50% of those who could be bothered to vote means that the views they have should not be sought, acted on or considered.

    What a fool to he is.

    If you think Cameron was the cause of the referendum I think you may need to look somewhere else and take on a wider perspective. Sure, it may have suited him politically, but there was a deep well of seething angst, discontent and vitriol in a substantial portion of the populace. To ignore it and allow it to grow and fester would be the irresponsible choice.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Scott_P said:

    Brom said:

    You sound rather worried Scott. Boris looking like he might have the numbers.

    Why would that worry me?
    Because you don't want Brexit and you realise that 90% of your 50,000 retweets increasingly look incorrect and redundant.

    Meaningful vote to pass now 1.6 on Betfair!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    nico67 said:

    I’d be very dubious of Campbell changing his mind . He seemed resolute last night on Newsnight .
    Why would he say it unless he was indeed considering it? Is he a liar?

    Om another point I still dont know how the FT arrived at such a close vote estimate. If they are right a bare handful of extra labour are all that is needed, which is doable.

    Remainers need to kill the Letwin amendment, it heightens the risk of no deal given Macron's intervention

    Oh, big tough Macron will actually follow through this time will he?

    The others should have listened to him before, we could have shortcutted all this.

  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    Chris said:

    Offer Letwin an alternative. Benn letter to be transmitted if WAIB fails or not voted on by Oct 28.

    What is the bloody point? Whatever the length of the extension, we leave once the paperwork is done. We could be granted a ten-year extension, and still (in theory) leave before 31 October if we're ready.
    The point is Letwin is currently trying to force the letter tomorrow, the EU have made it pretty clear they arent going to extend, especially if the deal has been agreed (in principle in this case) so they decline an extension and no deal becomes a real possibility again if the WAIB falls.
    Only a moron like Letwin could come up with such a stupid amendment
    But of course, the EU haven't made it clear they aren't going to extend - they've just been making a lot of noises about the undesirability of extending, obviously intended to encourage MPs to vote in favour, but incapable of deceiving a small child.

    The only problem here is Johnson's idiotic self-imposed deadline. Wouldn't it be great if everyone else ignored the child in the room and started behaving like adults?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605

    Chris said:

    Offer Letwin an alternative. Benn letter to be transmitted if WAIB fails or not voted on by Oct 28.

    What is the bloody point? Whatever the length of the extension, we leave once the paperwork is done. We could be granted a ten-year extension, and still (in theory) leave before 31 October if we're ready.
    The point is Letwin is currently trying to force the letter tomorrow, the EU have made it pretty clear they arent going to extend, especially if the deal has been agreed (in principle in this case) so they decline an extension and no deal becomes a real possibility again if the WAIB falls.
    Only a moron like Letwin could come up with such a stupid amendment
    The EU won't reply to the request for an extension until after the WAIB for the reasons you give.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. 19, vielleicht.

    There's a majority against no deal in the Commons. That's not the same thing as a majority in favour of straight revocation, without a referendum, having rejected a deal.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    philiph said:

    If you think Cameron was the cause of the referendum I think you may need to look somewhere else and take on a wider perspective. Sure, it may have suited him politically, but there was a deep well of seething angst, discontent and vitriol in a substantial portion of the populace. To ignore it and allow it to grow and fester would be the irresponsible choice.

    He should have confronted it, not appeased it.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    If forced to bet on this I would back the deal passing.

    Glad I am not forced to bet on this.

    The SNP will never have hoped a vote passes despite their opposition more :D
    You think? I think this is a bad outcome for the SNP.

    This is the kind of Brexit that doesn't tip people over the edge to full blown Indy support.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Scott_P said:
    Except, Beth, any one EU leader can say "Sod it. That's it. No more extensions." And then that action by one becomes the EU's default position of the 27.
    The nuclear button is also with Remainers if necessary. If all else fails, VoNC the government, new GNU government and then REVOKE. All legal.
    But probably impossible
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151

    Labour shortening in Uxbridge and South Ruislip (Boris Johnson MP)

    Con 1/3
    Lab 3/1
    LD 12/1
    Bxp 20/1

    On the latest polls Boris will increase his majority
  • As I see it each side is grossly exaggerating the negatives to influence their argument

    If the deal falls tomorrow and Boris writes a letter the EU will say have another go next week, you have time.

    However, if the HOC were to pass a referendum tomorrow that is very different but Corbyn is not putting forward that amendment

    If the SNP want to try a vonc on Boris, Corbyn will not vote for it as he is terrified of a wipeout

    So if neither a GE or a referendum is voted for tomorrow the EU will almost certainly confirm it is this deal or no deal

    And Corbyn will be the most responsible for Brexit

    Even more responsible than David Cameron? I think not.
    I have never understood the line that David Cameron is to blame. He passed the referendum and we voted. We voted to leave (I voted remain) but if we had voted to remain you would not blame him
    How could any Tory possibly bear any responsibility, after all you vote for them...

    It was all the nasty oppositions fault.
    Do not be silly.

    Of course it is not all the oppositions fault. I blame the ERG in the first instance but now we have a deal and are facing a no deal crash out in just over 10 days it is incumbent on Corbyn to act as a statesman and either back the deal or lay a referendum amendment
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Pulpstar said:


    Very brave of you as a Tory voter in 2015, 2017 and likely in the next GE to put the responsibility for Brexit on those who have voted against the proposal (or will) and for another referendum....

    Unless we're getting into the realms of thought crimes the key vote was in 2016 for Brexit.
    You voted to leave iirc and Big G voted to remain. Labour had a commitment to leave the EU iirc in the 2017 election too.
    The me voting leave part is inaccurate, I was even someone who signed the second referendum and revoke petitions on the Westminster petitions thing.

    Nothing to do with thought crimes, you don't think people voting Tory in 2015 and 2017 made Brexit more likely?

    Corbyn has come around to a referendum as have other parties, basically less Tories (and DUP who Big G couldn't vote for) means more chance of a referendum and less chance of Brexit happening.

    I think it is fairly obvious why a Tory vote in 2015 has led to Brexit.

    And then if we have a future election with Brexit still in the air voting Tory then would be voting for Brexit.

    So someone who has repeatedly voted Tory and plans to continue doing so blaming others for Brexit is BS IMO.
  • HYUFD said:

    twitter.com/RobbieGibb/status/1185110274858258433?s=20

    Nothing changes. Jezza managed to condemn the new deal before the text had even been released....
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Stocky said:

    Bercow votes against the deal to keep status-quo

    Yes. Nothing to do with him being a leaver or remainer, he has to vote down the WA if there's a tie as normal protocol (Speaker can not make new laws)
    I thought that the protocol was that the Speaker voted with the government of the day in the event of a tie.

    Protocol is to vote for the status quo. Which is certainly not the deal, although it is arguably not not the deal either...
    The status quo is not no deal (per Benn), bercow votes for a deal
    I don't think so. This is a Treaty and he shouldn't support the creation/amendment of a Treaty.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    edited October 2019

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Stocky said:

    Bercow votes against the deal to keep status-quo

    Yes. Nothing to do with him being a leaver or remainer, he has to vote down the WA if there's a tie as normal protocol (Speaker can not make new laws)
    I thought that the protocol was that the Speaker voted with the government of the day in the event of a tie.

    Protocol is to vote for the status quo. Which is certainly not the deal, although it is arguably not not the deal either...
    The status quo is not no deal (per Benn), bercow votes for a deal
    Clearly, the status quo would be to vote against the deal and trigger the Benn Act.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,215
    edited October 2019

    Pulpstar said:


    Very brave of you as a Tory voter in 2015, 2017 and likely in the next GE to put the responsibility for Brexit on those who have voted against the proposal (or will) and for another referendum....

    Unless we're getting into the realms of thought crimes the key vote was in 2016 for Brexit.
    You voted to leave iirc and Big G voted to remain. Labour had a commitment to leave the EU iirc in the 2017 election too.
    The me voting leave part is inaccurate, I was even someone who signed the second referendum and revoke petitions on the Westminster petitions thing.

    Nothing to do with thought crimes, you don't think people voting Tory in 2015 and 2017 made Brexit more likely?

    Corbyn has come around to a referendum as have other parties, basically less Tories (and DUP who Big G couldn't vote for) means more chance of a referendum and less chance of Brexit happening.

    I think it is fairly obvious why a Tory vote in 2015 has led to Brexit.

    And then if we have a future election with Brexit still in the air voting Tory then would be voting for Brexit.

    So someone who has repeatedly voted Tory and plans to continue doing so blaming others for Brexit is BS IMO.
    Phew I'm off the hook then. I voted Green in 2015.

    Also my apologies on the "vote leave" for yourself bit, I was thinking of @Justin1123
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    HYUFD said:

    twitter.com/RobbieGibb/status/1185110274858258433?s=20

    Nothing changes. Jezza managed to condemn the new deal before the text had even been released....
    Do you think he would support a Tory Deal ? I thought you wanted to pass off as an intelligent person.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    HYUFD said:
    I'll refrain from commenting as to what sort of white powder Guido puts on his own breakfast.
  • Scott_P said:

    Brom said:

    You sound rather worried Scott. Boris looking like he might have the numbers.

    Why would that worry me?
    Common on Scott.

    Your whole DNA has been anti brexit and if this passes tomorrow you will be gutted along with many other remainers

    But if remainers are sensible they will seek to campaign to rejoin which is the obvious thing to do
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited October 2019

    HYUFD said:

    twitter.com/RobbieGibb/status/1185110274858258433?s=20

    Nothing changes. Jezza managed to condemn the new deal before the text had even been released....
    Do you think he would support a Tory Deal ? I thought you wanted to pass off as an intelligent person.
    Perhaps, at least wait until the text has been released, wait a few hours to make it look like you might have read it and then find reasons why you don't think it is a good deal.

    Screaming bad evil Tory deal before the deal has even been made public (given the supposed position of respecting the referendum and wanting to get a deal) makes you look like a moron.
  • John Mann predicting double-digit Labour MPs to back deal. If so, that should be enough.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    HYUFD said:

    Labour shortening in Uxbridge and South Ruislip (Boris Johnson MP)

    Con 1/3
    Lab 3/1
    LD 12/1
    Bxp 20/1

    On the latest polls Boris will increase his majority
    So what is the Uxbridge poll ? We should be told. You do know, I hope, that all seats DO NOT vote identically.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Offer Letwin an alternative. Benn letter to be transmitted if WAIB fails or not voted on by Oct 28.

    What is the bloody point? Whatever the length of the extension, we leave once the paperwork is done. We could be granted a ten-year extension, and still (in theory) leave before 31 October if we're ready.
    The point is Letwin is currently trying to force the letter tomorrow, the EU have made it pretty clear they arent going to extend, especially if the deal has been agreed (in principle in this case) so they decline an extension and no deal becomes a real possibility again if the WAIB falls.
    Only a moron like Letwin could come up with such a stupid amendment
    But of course, the EU haven't made it clear they aren't going to extend - they've just been making a lot of noises about the undesirability of extending, obviously intended to encourage MPs to vote in favour, but incapable of deceiving a small child.

    The only problem here is Johnson's idiotic self-imposed deadline. Wouldn't it be great if everyone else ignored the child in the room and started behaving like adults?
    They have stated pretty clearly any extension is for a reason.

    Johnson is unable to assure them that he or Parliament can deliver the reason for an extension. (Election or Referendum the numbers can not be guaranteed).

    That could easily lead to no extension.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    philiph said:

    If you think Cameron was the cause of the referendum I think you may need to look somewhere else and take on a wider perspective. Sure, it may have suited him politically, but there was a deep well of seething angst, discontent and vitriol in a substantial portion of the populace. To ignore it and allow it to grow and fester would be the irresponsible choice.

    He should have confronted it, not appeased it.
    I thought he went for renegotiations to do that.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,215
    philiph said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Offer Letwin an alternative. Benn letter to be transmitted if WAIB fails or not voted on by Oct 28.

    What is the bloody point? Whatever the length of the extension, we leave once the paperwork is done. We could be granted a ten-year extension, and still (in theory) leave before 31 October if we're ready.
    The point is Letwin is currently trying to force the letter tomorrow, the EU have made it pretty clear they arent going to extend, especially if the deal has been agreed (in principle in this case) so they decline an extension and no deal becomes a real possibility again if the WAIB falls.
    Only a moron like Letwin could come up with such a stupid amendment
    But of course, the EU haven't made it clear they aren't going to extend - they've just been making a lot of noises about the undesirability of extending, obviously intended to encourage MPs to vote in favour, but incapable of deceiving a small child.

    The only problem here is Johnson's idiotic self-imposed deadline. Wouldn't it be great if everyone else ignored the child in the room and started behaving like adults?
    They have stated pretty clearly any extension is for a reason.

    Johnson is unable to assure them that he or Parliament can deliver the reason for an extension. (Election or Referendum the numbers can not be guaranteed).

    That could easily lead to no extension.
    The EU refusing an extension after tomorrow's vote is (hopefully) passed would be Game Set Match for Johnson
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    If forced to bet on this I would back the deal passing.

    Glad I am not forced to bet on this.

    The SNP will never have hoped a vote passes despite their opposition more :D
    You think? I think this is a bad outcome for the SNP.

    This is the kind of Brexit that doesn't tip people over the edge to full blown Indy support.
    I think it will. Sturgeon is already talking about the advantages NI will have.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    How many with the Labour Whip (for now) are we up to voting for the Boris Deal?
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    Scott_P said:

    Brom said:

    You sound rather worried Scott. Boris looking like he might have the numbers.

    Why would that worry me?
    Common on Scott.

    Your whole DNA has been anti brexit and if this passes tomorrow you will be gutted along with many other remainers

    But if remainers are sensible they will seek to campaign to rejoin which is the obvious thing to do
    Will you?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited October 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    philiph said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Offer Letwin an alternative. Benn letter to be transmitted if WAIB fails or not voted on by Oct 28.

    What is the bloody point? Whatever the length of the extension, we leave once the paperwork is done. We could be granted a ten-year extension, and still (in theory) leave before 31 October if we're ready.
    The point is Letwin is currently trying to force the letter tomorrow, the EU have made it pretty clear they arent going to extend, especially if the deal has been agreed (in principle in this case) so they decline an extension and no deal becomes a real possibility again if the WAIB falls.
    Only a moron like Letwin could come up with such a stupid amendment
    But of course, the EU haven't made it clear they aren't going to extend - they've just been making a lot of noises about the undesirability of extending, obviously intended to encourage MPs to vote in favour, but incapable of deceiving a small child.

    The only problem here is Johnson's idiotic self-imposed deadline. Wouldn't it be great if everyone else ignored the child in the room and started behaving like adults?
    They have stated pretty clearly any extension is for a reason.

    Johnson is unable to assure them that he or Parliament can deliver the reason for an extension. (Election or Referendum the numbers can not be guaranteed).

    That could easily lead to no extension.
    The EU refusing an extension after tomorrow's vote is (hopefully) passed would be Game Set Match for Johnson
    I would have thought that if the EU really want to get this passed, if it fails tomorrow, they will say no extension, have another go. That's normally the EU approach when people give the wrong answer.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    If forced to bet on this I would back the deal passing.

    Glad I am not forced to bet on this.

    The SNP will never have hoped a vote passes despite their opposition more :D
    You think? I think this is a bad outcome for the SNP.

    This is the kind of Brexit that doesn't tip people over the edge to full blown Indy support.
    I think it will. Sturgeon is already talking about the advantages NI will have.
    In the UK!
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,751
    Who is the “senior cabinet minister” on resignation watch? That would be a total cluster for everyone’s current tight estimates if it happened
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    If forced to bet on this I would back the deal passing.

    Glad I am not forced to bet on this.

    The SNP will never have hoped a vote passes despite their opposition more :D
    You think? I think this is a bad outcome for the SNP.

    This is the kind of Brexit that doesn't tip people over the edge to full blown Indy support.
    I think it will. Sturgeon is already talking about the advantages NI will have.
    Boris and Westminster will block indyref2 for the foreseeable future anyway.

    The main thing was to avoid No Deal for most Scots, this Deal does it
  • HYUFD said:
    He's getting some surprising endorsements.

    From Guardianistas to Leave.EU who could have thought such a strange spectrum would back his deal?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Stocky said:

    Bercow votes against the deal to keep status-quo

    Yes. Nothing to do with him being a leaver or remainer, he has to vote down the WA if there's a tie as normal protocol (Speaker can not make new laws)
    I thought that the protocol was that the Speaker voted with the government of the day in the event of a tie.

    Nope. Against amendments, in favour of further debate and not to approve something as it has no genuine majority is the standard spiel.

    Of course he can do as he likes, but in this case that and precedent probably align.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    philiph said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Offer Letwin an alternative. Benn letter to be transmitted if WAIB fails or not voted on by Oct 28.

    What is the bloody point? Whatever the length of the extension, we leave once the paperwork is done. We could be granted a ten-year extension, and still (in theory) leave before 31 October if we're ready.
    The point is Letwin is currently trying to force the letter tomorrow, the EU have made it pretty clear they arent going to extend, especially if the deal has been agreed (in principle in this case) so they decline an extension and no deal becomes a real possibility again if the WAIB falls.
    Only a moron like Letwin could come up with such a stupid amendment
    But of course, the EU haven't made it clear they aren't going to extend - they've just been making a lot of noises about the undesirability of extending, obviously intended to encourage MPs to vote in favour, but incapable of deceiving a small child.

    The only problem here is Johnson's idiotic self-imposed deadline. Wouldn't it be great if everyone else ignored the child in the room and started behaving like adults?
    They have stated pretty clearly any extension is for a reason.

    Johnson is unable to assure them that he or Parliament can deliver the reason for an extension. (Election or Referendum the numbers can not be guaranteed).

    That could easily lead to no extension.
    You can come out with as much wishful thinking as you like. The EU has certainly not made clear that they aren't going to extend, which was the claim.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    For reference going into meaningful vote 3 public was split 33/38 on accepting / rejecting the deal.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/03/29/meaningful-vote-3-britons-are-still-split-whether-
  • TudorRose said:

    Scott_P said:

    Brom said:

    You sound rather worried Scott. Boris looking like he might have the numbers.

    Why would that worry me?
    Common on Scott.

    Your whole DNA has been anti brexit and if this passes tomorrow you will be gutted along with many other remainers

    But if remainers are sensible they will seek to campaign to rejoin which is the obvious thing to do
    Will you?
    No - I accept the referendum and would not want to be involved in years of politics at my age to be honest and especially post brexit
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    HYUFD said:
    He's getting some surprising endorsements.

    From Guardianistas to Leave.EU who could have thought such a strange spectrum would back his deal?
    Simon Jenkins backed May's deal didn't he?
  • moonshine said:

    Who is the “senior cabinet minister” on resignation watch? That would be a total cluster for everyone’s current tight estimates if it happened

    IDS maybe
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    philiph said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Offer Letwin an alternative. Benn letter to be transmitted if WAIB fails or not voted on by Oct 28.

    What is the bloody point? Whatever the length of the extension, we leave once the paperwork is done. We could be granted a ten-year extension, and still (in theory) leave before 31 October if we're ready.
    The point is Letwin is currently trying to force the letter tomorrow, the EU have made it pretty clear they arent going to extend, especially if the deal has been agreed (in principle in this case) so they decline an extension and no deal becomes a real possibility again if the WAIB falls.
    Only a moron like Letwin could come up with such a stupid amendment
    But of course, the EU haven't made it clear they aren't going to extend - they've just been making a lot of noises about the undesirability of extending, obviously intended to encourage MPs to vote in favour, but incapable of deceiving a small child.

    The only problem here is Johnson's idiotic self-imposed deadline. Wouldn't it be great if everyone else ignored the child in the room and started behaving like adults?
    They have stated pretty clearly any extension is for a reason.

    Johnson is unable to assure them that he or Parliament can deliver the reason for an extension. (Election or Referendum the numbers can not be guaranteed).

    That could easily lead to no extension.
    They demanded reasons last time, or at the least that we had a plan for coming to a resolution. We didnt and they still extended. It was their first major blink - showing they will never call time, even if it is in their intetest.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798

    HYUFD said:
    He's getting some surprising endorsements.

    From Guardianistas to Leave.EU who could have thought such a strange spectrum would back his deal?
    Simon Jenkins is the Guardian's resident Tory, I don't think you could call him a Guardianista in the traditional sense of the word.
  • moonshine said:

    Who is the “senior cabinet minister” on resignation watch? That would be a total cluster for everyone’s current tight estimates if it happened

    Raab?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236

    HYUFD said:
    He's getting some surprising endorsements.

    From Guardianistas to Leave.EU who could have thought such a strange spectrum would back his deal?
    Jenkins is a randomista contrarian.

    Occasionally entertaining or interesting, but not to be taken seriously.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Scott_P said:

    Brom said:

    You sound rather worried Scott. Boris looking like he might have the numbers.

    Why would that worry me?
    Common on Scott.

    Your whole DNA has been anti brexit and if this passes tomorrow you will be gutted along with many other remainers

    But if remainers are sensible they will seek to campaign to rejoin which is the obvious thing to do
    Clearly you haven't been paying attention.

    I have said, many times, the only way to kill the Brexit virus is for it to burn itself out.
This discussion has been closed.