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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There is little from the betting to indicate which way punters
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There is little from the betting to indicate which way punters think tomorrow’s vote will go
The betting odds above from Ladbrokes were correct as at 1345. Things might have changed since.
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"No" is now strongish favourite. Maybe due to Letwin amendment?
Not inclined to bet on this.
There might be more value hunting for markets contingent on the result of the vote. Will this benefit the Conservatives, say, if we have an election in the near future?
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1185150058855096320?s=20
That was not the case with May's Deal
Even though it's highly likely the FTA will be skewed strongly in the EU's favour.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28180290/market?marketId=1.138952650
Get on!!!
Could be just a technical extension?
Or do you think Letwin amendment is designed to embarrass Boris?
If the deal falls tomorrow and Boris writes a letter the EU will say have another go next week, you have time.
However, if the HOC were to pass a referendum tomorrow that is very different but Corbyn is not putting forward that amendment
If the SNP want to try a vonc on Boris, Corbyn will not vote for it as he is terrified of a wipeout
So if neither a GE or a referendum is voted for tomorrow the EU will almost certainly confirm it is this deal or no deal
And Corbyn will be the most responsible for Brexit
It would be very easy for a few MPs to find some in principle objection to some part of the WAIB. Indeed Mrs M denied its publication in draft for precisely this reason.
Boles on board?? Bloody hell.
It is there to ensure that if Boris wins the vote tomorrow, the deal doesn't get timed out by the enabling legislation not being passed. It's not intended as a spoiler - Letwin is backing the deal itself.
https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1185182986406416384?s=20
A large minority of the country want this deal. Is that really good enough?
Looking on from Denmark it is incredible people are arguing over whether they should vote for the deal or not - if you want to avoid no deal, vote for the deal. Patience with the UK is stretched to breaking point. If you think the deal is an abomination abstain. But even if Macron wilts, which he might do, the EU had bent over backwards to help the UK political class - this group of useless tossers are still wanting to go round in circles - our PM Mette Frederikson is already moving on to the budget and building the coalition (with Sweden, Austria and the netherlands) to keep finances under control post-Brexit - the UK is gone already in most people's eyes here - stop faffing about and get the thing signed so a decent FTA can get arranged - preferably after an election in early December. Kom så Storbritannian - bare gør det!
The EU have had enough and have big problems with recession fears, budget problems, France and other preventing further accession resulting in big split in the EU today and problems over Ursula von der Leyen adoption as Commission President
Also I expect many calls are being conducted between no 10 and Brussels today to co-ordinate the EU position on any extension as evidenced by Macron and others uncompromising stance just now
Anyone who has been whinging about No Deal but votes against this Deal is a flaming hypocrite.
Parliament has voted against an election twice and refused to table a VONC.
If the EU ask Johnson will there be an election if we offer an extension he would be able to say they voted against one on September xx and xx. I cannot guarantee that an election would be called, as it is not my prerogative to do so against the expressed will of the House under our FTPA.
A similar message can be given with indicative votes held for another referendum.
Who will issue the guarantee of one of these outcomes to EU? Is it possible Parliament has shot itself in the foot here?
Leavers don't appear to care all that much about the price we have to pay for independence from the EU, so long as they get what they see as independence.
EU say no to extension request
Spartans vote down WAIB
No deal on the 31st
Letwin is an idiot
It might convert 2 or 3 Lab/exLab waverers though.
Laying Hillary Clinton or Andrea Leadsom is like printing money, if you have patience and deep pockets, but this isn’t.
There’s probably only a 40% chance of that bet coming off, not the 95%+ chance it’d have to be to justify the claim you’re making.
In any case, the Spartans believe Johnson's Deal leads them to a No Deal Brexit after 31.12.2020.
Of course, we all know Bercow will vote against a deal regardless.
With Trimble backing the deal too, the DUP should come to their senses and say that on reflection this deal requires NIs consent which was their red line so they can suppor tthis and incidentally there's another billion or two coming to NI to aid with transition.
The EU could not believe that the UK was so stupid as to reject May's deal. They don't want the same to happen again.
I think any deal that wins a majority in a referendum would go a long way to taking the issue away as a culture war.
Rebel alliance silly buggery has a bit of a problemo.
The kind of taking responsibility for your own actions Johnson would be proud of. I just wonder how plausible you would find it if there was a Labour government putting through policies that the Conservatives didn't have the numbers to defeat or change and then blaming them on the Conservatives...
Pretty unlikely I reckon. You are happy to accept Brexit as the cost of voting Tory so wouldn't it be more honest to own that rather than try to blame your opponents because you want to shirk responsibility for Brexit.
But Gerry Moynihan QC for the UK government argued that the petition was beyond the competency of the court, saying it was inviting the court to “inhibit” consideration of the agreement. “This is a manifest attempt to interfere with proceedings in parliament,” he told Pentland. He added that a substantial part of Northern Ireland’s trade would remain part of the UK’s customs territory and therefore s55 would be complied with.
Moynihan also presented a letter from the Speaker’s counsel which warned that Maughan’s petition was asking for action that would “inevitably involve interference on proceedings in parliament and as a breach of the separation of powers.”
Good to see the Speaker standing up to the Courts
but the purpose of the hearing was to determine if it needed to.
Lol.
This deal is worse for the UK because it takes us in the direction of the fools gold of independent FTAs and a damaging of the supply chains to and from the EU. It's also worse for the UK if you are a unionist (which I'm not).
Besides the Lib Dem byelection gain has anyone who voted for MV3 so far said they'd vote down Boris's deal?
MV3 was defeated by a majority of 58, lets say 60 due to the byelection. That would imply net 31 switchers necessary between May's MV3 and Boris's MV. That seems quite possible.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/eu-enlargement-emanuel-macron-albania-north-macedonia-juncker-a9161536.html
Corbyn could at this late stage put down a referendum amendment tomorrow and say he would campaign to remain but he is too much of a coward to make the decision and is going to pay a big price at the ballot box
Probably correct