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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The mood changes on Brexit but the devil will be in the detail

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  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    HYUFD said:

    Noo said:

    I believe that ultimately the weakness of liberals is that they see politics as a conflict between ideologies, with people acting as their ideologies' mostly good-faith representatives. In reality, politics is a conflict between people (and their interests).

    Perhaps this is me suffering that weakness, but I disagree. I think the irrationalists are quite few in numbers. The irrationalists comprise fascists, portion of those who self-describe as communist, and people whose political beliefs stem unfiltered from some kind of extremist religious beliefs: fundamentalist christians, muslims and jews are prominent examples in the west.
    Everybody else normally tries to ground their arguments in rationality: X is best because history/science shows us that Y. Their views are, in principle, falsifiable.

    I am really heartened by the example of the collapse of the Labour party in Scotland. Not as a thing to be celebrated in itself -- that is subjective -- but in that it demonstrates that huge numbers of people are capable of abandoning a party over a single electoral cycle. That means those people are thinking. The 35% who switched from Labour to other parties between 2010 and 2015 is evidence of an absolute floor in the number of people willing to change their minds. Naturally, the churn will be even greater than that, since some people will have switched to Labour from other parties.
    So basically the only rational people are secular, liberal Remainers apparently.
    Adlai Stevenson was once told: "all thinking people are for you", to which he responded: "That's not enough. I need a majority."
  • It will be interesting to find out who is the real brains behind this progress. It seems unlikely to be boris or cummings.

    Cummings is a soft brexiteer and hence the friction with Farage. He was present at the meeting between Boris and Varadkar
  • It will be interesting to find out who is the real brains behind this progress. It seems unlikely to be boris or cummings.

    Hillary Benn.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    "tunnel negotiations" - crickey....all it go.

    HoC will i am sure find a way to object and vote it down.

    and of course stop an election.

    Because as we all know this isn't about anything other than stopping Brexit for too many of them.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    I hope that kind of answers your question Mr Topping :smile:

    Yes! Thank you it did. I would say also that by voting Leave (xenophobic campaign aside although I think it is an important factor and don't begrudge people for whom it is the primary one) you ushered in the era whereby we have the chance of a Corbyn PM. Vote Remain and we would be berating George Osborne for sticking out his little finger while having a pint of Old Peculiar on one of his PM's meet the people tours.

    I'm sorry to say but anyone but the out and out leavers (eg. @Richard_Tyndall et al) should hang their heads in shame at their behaviour by voting Leave without understanding (and I appreciate you are well-educated, etc, etc) that it was overwhelmingly likely that we would end up precisely where we are today. That is, having to make a series of least worst decisions with the spectre of Jeremy Corbyn on the one hand, and born-again ex-Tories like @HYUFD who accept any old shit the "Tory" party feeds them on the other.

    Your fault.

    Sozza, you seem a hugely nice, engaging and articulate person but this is on you.
    Corbyn could have beaten Osborne after 9 years of austerity with no pro Brexit coalition behind the Tories to give a chance of a 4th term and with Farage and UKIP still up in the polls
    No he wouldn't have.
    The last Opinium poll before the 2016 EU referendum had Tories 34%, Labour 30%, LDs 19%.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election
    No it didn't. The Lib Dems were on a third of that.
    It had Con 34, Lab 30, LD 6

    UKIP were on 19%, not the Lib Dems.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Anorak said:
    Isn't this just McDonnell the Conciliator, trying to make Labour look like the broadest tent possible (as he always has) whilst also moving policy as far left as possible?

    I saw him speak once in Islington to the Graun (if I remember correctly). He seems like the brains of the Corbyn movement, and I assume if it wasn't for his health, he'd have been the lefty candidate during that leadership election instead of Corbyn.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    I think that secular, liberal Remainers are the bees` knees. They certainly know their onions.

    I only know three: Normal, Red and Pickled.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    justin124 said:

    nichomar said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Unclear why Boris would agree to Ref 2. He'd have a leadership challenge on his hands.

    Exactly as happened to May.

    I have no idea if the ERG will decide to cash in their chips and vote for the Johnson Deal (assuming the details are finalised with the EU). Some of them may still believe that they can win a general election on No Deal and therefore vote against.

    However, if they all vote with Johnson I think he will have the numbers.
    If it gets as far as a vote then ERG will be told vote for it or lose whip and your jobs, which for most of them is the best job they will ever get. It will also allow many of the other Tory rebels back in the fold. Anyone know how many constituencies have adopted new candidates? Lots of ifs but it looks a neat solution for them.
    Similarly any Labour MPs inclined to vote for a deal signed by Johnson should have the Whip withdrawn and be unable to stand as Labour candidates at the election.
    So, party before country then
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    I forgot Spring
  • Arndale attack may be terrorism. Been a while with terrorism rather than gang violence for stabbings it seems.

    Evil either way.

    Sky reporting North West Counter Terrorist commander leading investigation.

    From the footage of the suspect on social media, he looks too old to be in a teenage wannabe hard man gang.

    Thankfully, GMP were on the scene instantly. Luckily, XR don't know where the north of England is, so the police weren't distracted by Crispins and Tabithas supergluing themselves to the front of a tram.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    HYUFD said:

    Anorak said:

    Chris said:

    ???????

    I was replying to your conclusion that the best position for the Tories was leaving by 31 October!

    Do you ever think about what you're writing?

    I made the conscious decision yesterday to skip over all posts from a certain poster. It's made PB a whole lot more enjoyable. Disagreements and alternative points of view are fine; non-sequiturs and endless dumb statements are not. Just sayin'.
    Enjoy your echo chamber!!
    That would be the bit between your ears, chum. The site is plenty diverse enough without your inane wittering.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Off topic - som incident at Manchester shopping centre - injuries reported - nutter or terrorist not clear
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Floater said:

    Off topic - som incident at Manchester shopping centre - injuries reported - nutter or terrorist not clear

    Or both
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Also shallots
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited October 2019

    Arndale attack may be terrorism. Been a while with terrorism rather than gang violence for stabbings it seems.

    Evil either way.

    Sky reporting North West Counter Terrorist commander leading investigation.

    From the footage of the suspect on social media, he looks too old to be in a teenage wannabe hard man gang.

    Thankfully, GMP were on the scene instantly. Luckily, XR don't know where the north of England is, so the police weren't distracted by Crispins and Tabithas supergluing themselves to the front of a tram.
    The fact they immediately said it was a 40 year old man makes me think they might be somebody already on their radar.

    Yes you could say he was carrying id and thats how they know, but normally if it isnt somebody already known to them they are very careful giving the media any details until triple checked everything.
  • 'UK government thinks this will end up making us ALL £2,250 A YEAR POORER'

    what happened to the tory hedge fund conspiracy winners?
    If you could be a good chap and take a £3k hit, the averages should work out OK. Kthxbai.
    This isn't about averages according to the man from the FT
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Stocky said:

    Also shallots

    You missed out the most important in this area: European.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    148grss said:

    Anorak said:
    Isn't this just McDonnell the Conciliator, trying to make Labour look like the broadest tent possible (as he always has) whilst also moving policy as far left as possible?

    I saw him speak once in Islington to the Graun (if I remember correctly). He seems like the brains of the Corbyn movement, and I assume if it wasn't for his health, he'd have been the lefty candidate during that leadership election instead of Corbyn.
    No, he had his go against Brown, Abbott had a go, it was Corbyns turn
  • Floater said:

    Off topic - som incident at Manchester shopping centre - injuries reported - nutter or terrorist not clear

    Less than half a mile from my office.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Arndale attack may be terrorism. Been a while with terrorism rather than gang violence for stabbings it seems.

    Evil either way.

    Sky reporting North West Counter Terrorist commander leading investigation.

    From the footage of the suspect on social media, he looks too old to be in a teenage wannabe hard man gang.

    Thankfully, GMP were on the scene instantly. Luckily, XR don't know where the north of England is, so the police weren't distracted by Crispins and Tabithas supergluing themselves to the front of a tram.
    The fact they immediately said it was a 40 year old man makes me think they might be somebody already on their radar.
    As others have pointed out, the suspect in the video rather confuses matters by having a black face and a white leg. So it may be the first attack that is motivated by Muslim terrorism and white supremacism at the same time.

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    I think the only danger with Johnson getting a deal is it legitimizes that as an option on a possible second vote .

    Whereas May was under constant suspicion because of her ref stance , a Johnson deal delivered by a true believer should count as a proper leave option .

  • Arndale attack may be terrorism. Been a while with terrorism rather than gang violence for stabbings it seems.

    Evil either way.

    Sky reporting North West Counter Terrorist commander leading investigation.

    From the footage of the suspect on social media, he looks too old to be in a teenage wannabe hard man gang.

    Thankfully, GMP were on the scene instantly. Luckily, XR don't know where the north of England is, so the police weren't distracted by Crispins and Tabithas supergluing themselves to the front of a tram.
    Oh they do.

    They are blockading MediaCity at the moment.

    Bunch of soapdodging parasites.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Byronic said:

    Arndale attack may be terrorism. Been a while with terrorism rather than gang violence for stabbings it seems.

    Evil either way.

    Sky reporting North West Counter Terrorist commander leading investigation.

    From the footage of the suspect on social media, he looks too old to be in a teenage wannabe hard man gang.

    Thankfully, GMP were on the scene instantly. Luckily, XR don't know where the north of England is, so the police weren't distracted by Crispins and Tabithas supergluing themselves to the front of a tram.
    The fact they immediately said it was a 40 year old man makes me think they might be somebody already on their radar.
    As others have pointed out, the suspect in the video rather confuses matters by having a black face and a white leg. So it may be the first attack that is motivated by Muslim terrorism and white supremacism at the same time.

    It’s Justin Trudeau!
  • Arndale attack may be terrorism. Been a while with terrorism rather than gang violence for stabbings it seems.

    Evil either way.

    Sky reporting North West Counter Terrorist commander leading investigation.

    From the footage of the suspect on social media, he looks too old to be in a teenage wannabe hard man gang.

    Thankfully, GMP were on the scene instantly. Luckily, XR don't know where the north of England is, so the police weren't distracted by Crispins and Tabithas supergluing themselves to the front of a tram.
    Oh they do.

    They are blockading MediaCity at the moment.

    Bunch of soapdodging parasites.
    Pissing off the media luuvies...nevermind.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    isam said:

    Byronic said:

    Arndale attack may be terrorism. Been a while with terrorism rather than gang violence for stabbings it seems.

    Evil either way.

    Sky reporting North West Counter Terrorist commander leading investigation.

    From the footage of the suspect on social media, he looks too old to be in a teenage wannabe hard man gang.

    Thankfully, GMP were on the scene instantly. Luckily, XR don't know where the north of England is, so the police weren't distracted by Crispins and Tabithas supergluing themselves to the front of a tram.
    The fact they immediately said it was a 40 year old man makes me think they might be somebody already on their radar.
    As others have pointed out, the suspect in the video rather confuses matters by having a black face and a white leg. So it may be the first attack that is motivated by Muslim terrorism and white supremacism at the same time.

    It’s Justin Trudeau!
    *applause*
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875

    HYUFD said:

    Noo said:

    I believe that ultimately the weakness of liberals is that they see politics as a conflict between ideologies, with people acting as their ideologies' mostly good-faith representatives. In reality, politics is a conflict between people (and their interests).

    Perhaps this is me suffering that weakness, but I disagree. I think the irrationalists are quite few in numbers. The irrationalists comprise fascists, portion of those who self-describe as communist, and people whose political beliefs stem unfiltered from some kind of extremist religious beliefs: fundamentalist christians, muslims and jews are prominent examples in the west.
    Everybody else normally tries to ground their arguments in rationality: X is best because history/science shows us that Y. Their views are, in principle, falsifiable.

    I am really heartened by the example of the collapse of the Labour party in Scotland. Not as a thing to be celebrated in itself -- that is subjective -- but in that it demonstrates that huge numbers of people are capable of abandoning a party over a single electoral cycle. That means those people are thinking. The 35% who switched from Labour to other parties between 2010 and 2015 is evidence of an absolute floor in the number of people willing to change their minds. Naturally, the churn will be even greater than that, since some people will have switched to Labour from other parties.
    So basically the only rational people are secular, liberal Remainers apparently.
    Adlai Stevenson was once told: "all thinking people are for you", to which he responded: "That's not enough. I need a majority."
    Diogenes Laertius has the ancient precursor to that story:

    "When the people were applauding him wildly, Phocion turned to one of his friends and asked, 'Have I said something foolish?'" :grin:
  • @Byronic and @ozymandias are fooling themselves. The disasters of the last few years are all down to the fact that Leave campaigned for xenophobia and hosing money at the NHS and not much else. It turns out that can’t be turned into a sane plan for Brexit. Nor can it just be ignored. Blaming the diplomats for your own moral failings is risible.

    What are your moral failings?
    I have many. Right now, however, I don't try to hide them behind an entirely spurious attack on the diplomatic classes. Do you want to compile a list of your own moral failings?
    No. I'm not making claims I am unable to back up about others' morals though.
  • isam said:

    Byronic said:

    Arndale attack may be terrorism. Been a while with terrorism rather than gang violence for stabbings it seems.

    Evil either way.

    Sky reporting North West Counter Terrorist commander leading investigation.

    From the footage of the suspect on social media, he looks too old to be in a teenage wannabe hard man gang.

    Thankfully, GMP were on the scene instantly. Luckily, XR don't know where the north of England is, so the police weren't distracted by Crispins and Tabithas supergluing themselves to the front of a tram.
    The fact they immediately said it was a 40 year old man makes me think they might be somebody already on their radar.
    As others have pointed out, the suspect in the video rather confuses matters by having a black face and a white leg. So it may be the first attack that is motivated by Muslim terrorism and white supremacism at the same time.

    It’s Justin Trudeau!
    Thread winner....
  • Arndale attack may be terrorism. Been a while with terrorism rather than gang violence for stabbings it seems.

    Evil either way.

    Sky reporting North West Counter Terrorist commander leading investigation.

    From the footage of the suspect on social media, he looks too old to be in a teenage wannabe hard man gang.

    Thankfully, GMP were on the scene instantly. Luckily, XR don't know where the north of England is, so the police weren't distracted by Crispins and Tabithas supergluing themselves to the front of a tram.
    Oh they do.

    They are blockading MediaCity at the moment.

    Bunch of soapdodging parasites.
    WTF? If they prevent my mother getting to The Lowry, they'll be sorry.
  • Arndale attack may be terrorism. Been a while with terrorism rather than gang violence for stabbings it seems.

    Evil either way.

    Sky reporting North West Counter Terrorist commander leading investigation.

    From the footage of the suspect on social media, he looks too old to be in a teenage wannabe hard man gang.

    Thankfully, GMP were on the scene instantly. Luckily, XR don't know where the north of England is, so the police weren't distracted by Crispins and Tabithas supergluing themselves to the front of a tram.
    Oh they do.

    They are blockading MediaCity at the moment.

    Bunch of soapdodging parasites.
    Pissing off the media luuvies...nevermind.
    They were congregating in Piccadilly this morning.

    Not that I am an expert, but my colleagues informed there was a strong stench of waccy baccy there.

    What does that do to the environment?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Something. Has. Changed.
  • Arndale attack may be terrorism. Been a while with terrorism rather than gang violence for stabbings it seems.

    Evil either way.

    Sky reporting North West Counter Terrorist commander leading investigation.

    From the footage of the suspect on social media, he looks too old to be in a teenage wannabe hard man gang.

    Thankfully, GMP were on the scene instantly. Luckily, XR don't know where the north of England is, so the police weren't distracted by Crispins and Tabithas supergluing themselves to the front of a tram.
    Oh they do.

    They are blockading MediaCity at the moment.

    Bunch of soapdodging parasites.
    WTF? If they prevent my mother getting to The Lowry, they'll be sorry.
    It's not as large as the one in London.

    Maybe 40 or 50 people apparently.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited October 2019
    GIN1138 said:

    Something. Has. Changed.

    The Guardian says the EU has "given Boris Johnson a major boost".

    They must have typed that with gritted teeth, and with the whirl of blood in their ears.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    Arndale attack may be terrorism. Been a while with terrorism rather than gang violence for stabbings it seems.

    Evil either way.

    Sky reporting North West Counter Terrorist commander leading investigation.

    From the footage of the suspect on social media, he looks too old to be in a teenage wannabe hard man gang.

    Thankfully, GMP were on the scene instantly. Luckily, XR don't know where the north of England is, so the police weren't distracted by Crispins and Tabithas supergluing themselves to the front of a tram.
    Oh they do.

    They are blockading MediaCity at the moment.

    Bunch of soapdodging parasites.
    Pissing off the media luuvies...nevermind.
    They were congregating in Piccadilly this morning.

    Not that I am an expert, but my colleagues informed there was a strong stench of waccy baccy there.

    What does that do to the environment?
    They don't care about the environment. It's just rent-a-mob.

    The subject matter is immaterial. As long as its subversive.
  • Arndale attack may be terrorism. Been a while with terrorism rather than gang violence for stabbings it seems.

    Evil either way.

    Sky reporting North West Counter Terrorist commander leading investigation.

    From the footage of the suspect on social media, he looks too old to be in a teenage wannabe hard man gang.

    Thankfully, GMP were on the scene instantly. Luckily, XR don't know where the north of England is, so the police weren't distracted by Crispins and Tabithas supergluing themselves to the front of a tram.
    Oh they do.

    They are blockading MediaCity at the moment.

    Bunch of soapdodging parasites.
    Manchester beyond redemption?
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    Arndale attack may be terrorism. Been a while with terrorism rather than gang violence for stabbings it seems.

    Evil either way.

    Sky reporting North West Counter Terrorist commander leading investigation.

    From the footage of the suspect on social media, he looks too old to be in a teenage wannabe hard man gang.

    Thankfully, GMP were on the scene instantly. Luckily, XR don't know where the north of England is, so the police weren't distracted by Crispins and Tabithas supergluing themselves to the front of a tram.
    Oh they do.

    They are blockading MediaCity at the moment.

    Bunch of soapdodging parasites.
    Pissing off the media luuvies...nevermind.
    They were congregating in Piccadilly this morning.

    Not that I am an expert, but my colleagues informed there was a strong stench of waccy baccy there.

    What does that do to the environment?
    Depends on how it is grown. But in terms of other things legally consumed, it will likely be more environmentally friendly than any animal product.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    isam said:

    Byronic said:

    As others have pointed out, the suspect in the video rather confuses matters by having a black face and a white leg. So it may be the first attack that is motivated by Muslim terrorism and white supremacism at the same time.

    It’s Justin Trudeau!
    Hah. Nice.
  • Arndale attack may be terrorism. Been a while with terrorism rather than gang violence for stabbings it seems.

    Evil either way.

    Sky reporting North West Counter Terrorist commander leading investigation.

    From the footage of the suspect on social media, he looks too old to be in a teenage wannabe hard man gang.

    Thankfully, GMP were on the scene instantly. Luckily, XR don't know where the north of England is, so the police weren't distracted by Crispins and Tabithas supergluing themselves to the front of a tram.
    Oh they do.

    They are blockading MediaCity at the moment.

    Bunch of soapdodging parasites.
    Pissing off the media luuvies...nevermind.
    They were congregating in Piccadilly this morning.

    Not that I am an expert, but my colleagues informed there was a strong stench of waccy baccy there.

    What does that do to the environment?
    Surely not. A load of middle class under-employed hippy types smoking such substances...i am shocked i tell you.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    A 2019 election was last backed at 1.78 on Betfair.
  • Extincton Rebellion is designed to be unpopular. That's its point. But it shifts the Overton Window and is part of a Zeitgeist. We've had three radical corporate announcements this week alone on ecological reform. Big institutions doing things that would have been unimaginable just a few years ago.
  • Arndale attack may be terrorism. Been a while with terrorism rather than gang violence for stabbings it seems.

    Evil either way.

    Sky reporting North West Counter Terrorist commander leading investigation.

    From the footage of the suspect on social media, he looks too old to be in a teenage wannabe hard man gang.

    Thankfully, GMP were on the scene instantly. Luckily, XR don't know where the north of England is, so the police weren't distracted by Crispins and Tabithas supergluing themselves to the front of a tram.
    Oh they do.

    They are blockading MediaCity at the moment.

    Bunch of soapdodging parasites.
    Pissing off the media luuvies...nevermind.
    They were congregating in Piccadilly this morning.

    Not that I am an expert, but my colleagues informed there was a strong stench of waccy baccy there.

    What does that do to the environment?
    They don't care about the environment. It's just rent-a-mob.

    The subject matter is immaterial. As long as its subversive.
    They had one of the radio this morning demanding that we need to get rid of measures like GDP and tell companies not to optimize for profit
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,215
    Massive incentive to vote tactically anti-Labour I reckon.
  • HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Byronic said:


    That's just brilliant! :lol:
    Rather clever, but very polarising. On that brief glimpse, she's much less annoying than Hillary
    Is anyone polarisable not yet polarised ?

    Point is she would make Trump look the lumbering walrus-wit he is in any presidential debate.
    And she has the timing to deliver a punchline that Hillary never did.
    Hillary won all 3 post debate polls, she still lost the election as they made no difference to Trump's base in Midwestern swing states
    What base? The base that voted for Romney at almost exactly the same rate?

    Missing Obama voters is the key, not cracking the "always voted Republican all their life block" .
    Trump did better with working class voters and poor voters in the key swing states that counted in the Midwest and South, Trump did worse than Romney with upper middle class voters in the coastal states that are safe Democratic anyway.

    For example, Trump got 47.5% in Michigan and Romney only got 44.7%.

    In California though Romney got 37.1% but Trump only got 31.6%.
    He did significantly worse with black and other ethnic minority voters. That’s why he is trying to suppress their vote in 2020.
    Wrong.

    Trump won 8% of the black vote, Romney only won 6% of the black vote.

    Trump also won 29% of the Hispanic vote, Romney only won 27% of the Hispanic vote.
    I meant that Obama did significantly better amongst the black and ethnic minority vote. The thread started with a discussion of Obama/Trump before you, as is your habit, moved the goalposts
    And Obama will not be on the ballot in 2020 as he was not in 2016 when Trump won
    Mores the pity.
    Obama is a thoroughly decent man who tried to do his best as President. He should not have accepted the Nobel peace prize though.
    Agreed. I would suggest that Obama was indeed a decent man who was the best President it was possible to be in America today. And that is an indictment not of Obama but of the USA and perhaps the world today.
  • twitter.com/Independent/status/1182625886564179968

    Nice of John to make the announcement.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Massive incentive to vote tactically anti-Labour I reckon.
    Indeed but all it does is makes Richard Burgon's coronation inevitable.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Isn't that a great incentive for Corbyn sceptic Labour voters to stay at home?
  • Pulpstar said:

    Massive incentive to vote tactically anti-Labour I reckon.
    Indeed but all it does is makes Richard Burgon's coronation inevitable.
    A man even more dense than jezza.
  • I told Boris Johnson to do this, so glad he's listened to me.

    https://twitter.com/garvanwalshe/status/1182629827368620033
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited October 2019
    Is our national nightmare beginning - just beginning - to fade away?

    First, light at the end of the dark dark Brexit tunnel. Now the news that Corbyn is going. And probably very soon.

    By January 2020 we could have Brexit done and dusted, and a sensible Opposition leader. And British life will return to the sweet concord and bucolic charms of yesteryear.

    Ohgodplease.
  • Has anybody told jezza this news yet? I would say perhaps tweet him, but he doesnt run his account so no point.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679
    edited October 2019

    Pulpstar said:

    Massive incentive to vote tactically anti-Labour I reckon.
    Indeed but all it does is makes Richard Burgon's coronation inevitable.
    A man even more dense than jezza.
    Fake news. He read English at Cambridge, they don't let in just anybody there.
  • isam said:

    Byronic said:

    Arndale attack may be terrorism. Been a while with terrorism rather than gang violence for stabbings it seems.

    Evil either way.

    Sky reporting North West Counter Terrorist commander leading investigation.

    From the footage of the suspect on social media, he looks too old to be in a teenage wannabe hard man gang.

    Thankfully, GMP were on the scene instantly. Luckily, XR don't know where the north of England is, so the police weren't distracted by Crispins and Tabithas supergluing themselves to the front of a tram.
    The fact they immediately said it was a 40 year old man makes me think they might be somebody already on their radar.
    As others have pointed out, the suspect in the video rather confuses matters by having a black face and a white leg. So it may be the first attack that is motivated by Muslim terrorism and white supremacism at the same time.

    It’s Justin Trudeau!
    You nearly made me spit out my coffee! Very good!
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Pulpstar said:

    Massive incentive to vote tactically anti-Labour I reckon.
    Indeed but all it does is makes Richard Burgon's coronation inevitable.
    Jeez. Can you imagine. The Forrest Gump of politics.
  • Arndale attack may be terrorism. Been a while with terrorism rather than gang violence for stabbings it seems.

    Evil either way.

    Sky reporting North West Counter Terrorist commander leading investigation.

    From the footage of the suspect on social media, he looks too old to be in a teenage wannabe hard man gang.

    Thankfully, GMP were on the scene instantly. Luckily, XR don't know where the north of England is, so the police weren't distracted by Crispins and Tabithas supergluing themselves to the front of a tram.
    Oh they do.

    They are blockading MediaCity at the moment.

    Bunch of soapdodging parasites.
    Pissing off the media luuvies...nevermind.
    They were congregating in Piccadilly this morning.

    Not that I am an expert, but my colleagues informed there was a strong stench of waccy baccy there.

    What does that do to the environment?
    They don't care about the environment. It's just rent-a-mob.

    The subject matter is immaterial. As long as its subversive.
    They had one of the radio this morning demanding that we need to get rid of measures like GDP and tell companies not to optimize for profit
    There was one on Newsnight last night, who had given up her job to be a full time activist. It was pointed out to her that she was stopping working class people getting to their job and earning money, which seemed to be quite the revelation to her.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,488
    Byronic said:

    Arndale attack may be terrorism. Been a while with terrorism rather than gang violence for stabbings it seems.

    Evil either way.

    Sky reporting North West Counter Terrorist commander leading investigation.

    From the footage of the suspect on social media, he looks too old to be in a teenage wannabe hard man gang.

    Thankfully, GMP were on the scene instantly. Luckily, XR don't know where the north of England is, so the police weren't distracted by Crispins and Tabithas supergluing themselves to the front of a tram.
    The fact they immediately said it was a 40 year old man makes me think they might be somebody already on their radar.
    As others have pointed out, the suspect in the video rather confuses matters by having a black face and a white leg. So it may be the first attack that is motivated by Muslim terrorism and white supremacism at the same time.

    Justin Trudeau?
  • Pulpstar said:

    Massive incentive to vote tactically anti-Labour I reckon.
    Indeed but all it does is makes Richard Burgon's coronation inevitable.
    A man even more dense than jezza.
    Fake news. He read English at Cambridge, they don't let in just anybody there.
    The forms must have got mixed up!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    nico67 said:

    I think the only danger with Johnson getting a deal is it legitimizes that as an option on a possible second vote .

    Whereas May was under constant suspicion because of her ref stance , a Johnson deal delivered by a true believer should count as a proper leave option .

    Cummings has consistently had a "bring it on" attitude to a second referendum. Perhaps they're actually planning for that.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    Arndale attack may be terrorism. Been a while with terrorism rather than gang violence for stabbings it seems.

    Evil either way.

    Sky reporting North West Counter Terrorist commander leading investigation.

    From the footage of the suspect on social media, he looks too old to be in a teenage wannabe hard man gang.

    Thankfully, GMP were on the scene instantly. Luckily, XR don't know where the north of England is, so the police weren't distracted by Crispins and Tabithas supergluing themselves to the front of a tram.
    The fact they immediately said it was a 40 year old man makes me think they might be somebody already on their radar.
    As others have pointed out, the suspect in the video rather confuses matters by having a black face and a white leg. So it may be the first attack that is motivated by Muslim terrorism and white supremacism at the same time.

    Justin Trudeau?
    Too late, I'm afraid
  • A 2019 election was last backed at 1.78 on Betfair.

    An election has to be a clear lay if there's a deal surely?

    Priority will be to get the deal through, once through it will be job done now lets forget about politics for a bit and enjoy Christmas.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Pulpstar said:

    Massive incentive to vote tactically anti-Labour I reckon.
    Indeed but all it does is makes Richard Burgon's coronation inevitable.
    John McDonnell argues that it must be a woman. Is Richard Burgon willing to go that far to become Labour leader?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited October 2019
    Byronic said:

    Is our national nightmare beginning - just beginning - to fade away?

    First, light at the end of the dark dark Brexit tunnel. Now the news that Corbyn is going. And probably very soon.

    By January 2020 we could have Brexit done and dusted, and a sensible Opposition leader. And British life will return to the sweet concord and bucolic charms of yesteryear.

    Ohgodplease.
    You forget the labour party have lost the southem observer types and been taken over by the open border marxists.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    philiph said:

    Isn't that a great incentive for Corbyn sceptic Labour voters to stay at home?
    I mean, did he also say specifically majority? Because maybe this is the way to go in some seats, "look, you can vote for Labour, we won't get a majority, but as long as we're biggest party we can form a government, but we'll get rid of Corbyn..."

    Weird flex, but it may make LDs who don't want to vote Lab tactically think it's okay if it means Corbyn won't be PM unless he gets a majority (which will be impossible with Scotland as is).

    But yeah, reading this it looks like it will harm Labs chances.
  • Anorak said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Massive incentive to vote tactically anti-Labour I reckon.
    Indeed but all it does is makes Richard Burgon's coronation inevitable.
    Jeez. Can you imagine. The Forrest Gump of politics.
    Leave Richard Burgon alone, Labour would make a mistake if they didn't elect him Corbyn's successor.

    This is nothing to do with the fact that I backed Burgon at 100/1.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,488
    Byronic said:

    isam said:

    Byronic said:

    Arndale attack may be terrorism. Been a while with terrorism rather than gang violence for stabbings it seems.

    Evil either way.

    Sky reporting North West Counter Terrorist commander leading investigation.

    From the footage of the suspect on social media, he looks too old to be in a teenage wannabe hard man gang.

    Thankfully, GMP were on the scene instantly. Luckily, XR don't know where the north of England is, so the police weren't distracted by Crispins and Tabithas supergluing themselves to the front of a tram.
    The fact they immediately said it was a 40 year old man makes me think they might be somebody already on their radar.
    As others have pointed out, the suspect in the video rather confuses matters by having a black face and a white leg. So it may be the first attack that is motivated by Muslim terrorism and white supremacism at the same time.

    It’s Justin Trudeau!
    *applause*
    Boo - sorry for copying Isam had not read your comment.
  • Anorak said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Massive incentive to vote tactically anti-Labour I reckon.
    Indeed but all it does is makes Richard Burgon's coronation inevitable.
    Jeez. Can you imagine. The Forrest Gump of politics.
    When being interviewed, he always looks like a man who has won a competition to be on telly.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Massive incentive to vote tactically anti-Labour I reckon.
    Indeed but all it does is makes Richard Burgon's coronation inevitable.
    John McDonnell argues that it must be a woman. Is Richard Burgon willing to go that far to become Labour leader?
    We live in a gender fluid society now....
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Pulpstar said:

    Massive incentive to vote tactically anti-Labour I reckon.
    Indeed but all it does is makes Richard Burgon's coronation inevitable.
    John McDonnell argues that it must be a woman. Is Richard Burgon willing to go that far to become Labour leader?
    It all points to Thornberry.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    nico67 said:

    I think the only danger with Johnson getting a deal is it legitimizes that as an option on a possible second vote .

    Whereas May was under constant suspicion because of her ref stance , a Johnson deal delivered by a true believer should count as a proper leave option .

    Which true believer?
  • Anorak said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Massive incentive to vote tactically anti-Labour I reckon.
    Indeed but all it does is makes Richard Burgon's coronation inevitable.
    Jeez. Can you imagine. The Forrest Gump of politics.
    When being interviewed, he always looks like a man who has won a competition to be on telly.
    Which, in a sense, he has.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    isam said:

    Byronic said:

    Arndale attack may be terrorism. Been a while with terrorism rather than gang violence for stabbings it seems.

    Evil either way.

    Sky reporting North West Counter Terrorist commander leading investigation.

    From the footage of the suspect on social media, he looks too old to be in a teenage wannabe hard man gang.

    Thankfully, GMP were on the scene instantly. Luckily, XR don't know where the north of England is, so the police weren't distracted by Crispins and Tabithas supergluing themselves to the front of a tram.
    The fact they immediately said it was a 40 year old man makes me think they might be somebody already on their radar.
    As others have pointed out, the suspect in the video rather confuses matters by having a black face and a white leg. So it may be the first attack that is motivated by Muslim terrorism and white supremacism at the same time.

    It’s Justin Trudeau!
    LOL
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Byronic said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Massive incentive to vote tactically anti-Labour I reckon.
    Indeed but all it does is makes Richard Burgon's coronation inevitable.
    John McDonnell argues that it must be a woman. Is Richard Burgon willing to go that far to become Labour leader?
    It all points to Thornberry.
    Losing her seat to the LDs :)
  • Extincton Rebellion is designed to be unpopular. That's its point. But it shifts the Overton Window and is part of a Zeitgeist. We've had three radical corporate announcements this week alone on ecological reform. Big institutions doing things that would have been unimaginable just a few years ago.

    Big institutions have been doing lots for years now.

    Wind power has gone from about 2% of our countries power generation to about 20% in a decade and is increasing faster year on year, and getting cheaper year on year. Continuing with what we are doing there's no reason we can't realistically be very close to 100% renewable power generation within another decade or so.

    In the meantime within a decade we could see electric cars replace ICE vehicles.

    If we can have electric vehicles and our electricity generation is green then we will be in a dramatically cleaner nation than we have been and that's on current trends.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    edited October 2019
    Byronic said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Massive incentive to vote tactically anti-Labour I reckon.
    Indeed but all it does is makes Richard Burgon's coronation inevitable.
    John McDonnell argues that it must be a woman. Is Richard Burgon willing to go that far to become Labour leader?
    It all points to Thornberry.
    I don't actually know alot abut her.

    Is she "nationalise all pencil manufacturers" or more realistic and attuned to how the world actually works?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    148grss said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Byronic said:


    That's just brilliant! :lol:
    Rather clever, but very polarising. On that brief glimpse, she's much less annoying than Hillary
    Is anyone polarisable not yet polarised ?

    Point is she would make Trump look the lumbering walrus-wit he is in any presidential debate.
    And she has the timing to deliver a punchline that Hillary never did.
    Hillary won all 3 post debate polls, she still lost the election as they made no difference to Trump's base in Midwestern swing states
    What base? The base that voted for Romney at almost exactly the same rate?

    Missing Obama voters is the key, not cracking the "always voted Republican all their life block" .
    Trump did better with working class voters and poor voters in the key swing states that counted in the Midwest and South, Trump did worse than Romney with upper middle class voters in the coastal states that are safe Democratic anyway.

    For example, Trump got 47.5% in Michigan and Romney only got 44.7%.

    In California though Romney got 37.1% but Trump only got 31.6%.
    He did significantly worse with black and other ethnic minority voters. That’s why he is trying to suppress their vote in 2020.
    Wrong.

    Trump won 8% of the black vote, Romney only won 6% of the black vote.

    Trump also won 29% of the Hispanic vote, Romney only won 27% of the Hispanic vote.
    That will change. More people viewed Trump as a moderate in 2016, they don't any more.
    Also 8% of much smaller electorate, black turn out was way down.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Byronic said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Massive incentive to vote tactically anti-Labour I reckon.
    Indeed but all it does is makes Richard Burgon's coronation inevitable.
    John McDonnell argues that it must be a woman. Is Richard Burgon willing to go that far to become Labour leader?
    It all points to Thornberry.
    I thought Long-Bailey or Pidcock were the prepared Corbynista replacements.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited October 2019

    A 2019 election was last backed at 1.78 on Betfair.

    An election has to be a clear lay if there's a deal surely?

    Priority will be to get the deal through, once through it will be job done now lets forget about politics for a bit and enjoy Christmas.
    Remember he still won’t have a majority, and he will still probably lose a vote on the Queen’s Speech and Budget.

    There again, he’ll be saying “I’m the man that secured a Brexit deal, but the opposition just voted down my proposals for two free owls for every home: we must have an election”. Not necessarily in Corbyn’s obvious interest to say “yes”.

    It will have become impossible for any alternative Gvt to have a majority though, if he has secured a deal. Interesting times.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Byronic said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Massive incentive to vote tactically anti-Labour I reckon.
    Indeed but all it does is makes Richard Burgon's coronation inevitable.
    John McDonnell argues that it must be a woman. Is Richard Burgon willing to go that far to become Labour leader?
    It all points to Thornberry.
    I don't actually know alot abut her.

    Is she "nationalise all pencil manufacturers" or more realistic and attuned to how the world actually works?
    Big fan of flags, I believe.

    I don't think she's sufficiently lefty enough for the membership right now.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Byronic said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Massive incentive to vote tactically anti-Labour I reckon.
    Indeed but all it does is makes Richard Burgon's coronation inevitable.
    John McDonnell argues that it must be a woman. Is Richard Burgon willing to go that far to become Labour leader?
    It all points to Thornberry.
    I don't actually know alot abut her.

    Is she "nationalise all pencil manufacturers" or more realistic and attuned to how the world actually works?
    She is a fatuous loyalist of whomever is in charge. She was a raging Brownite at one point
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Alistair said:

    148grss said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Byronic said:


    That's just brilliant! :lol:
    Rather clever, but very polarising. On that brief glimpse, she's much less annoying than Hillary
    Is anyone polarisable not yet polarised ?

    Point is she would make Trump look the lumbering walrus-wit he is in any presidential debate.
    And she has the timing to deliver a punchline that Hillary never did.
    Hillary won all 3 post debate polls, she still lost the election as they made no difference to Trump's base in Midwestern swing states
    What base? The base that voted for Romney at almost exactly the same rate?

    Missing Obama voters is the key, not cracking the "always voted Republican all their life block" .
    Trump did better with working class voters and poor voters in the key swing states that counted in the Midwest and South, Trump did worse than Romney with upper middle class voters in the coastal states that are safe Democratic anyway.

    For example, Trump got 47.5% in Michigan and Romney only got 44.7%.

    In California though Romney got 37.1% but Trump only got 31.6%.
    He did significantly worse with black and other ethnic minority voters. That’s why he is trying to suppress their vote in 2020.
    Wrong.

    Trump won 8% of the black vote, Romney only won 6% of the black vote.

    Trump also won 29% of the Hispanic vote, Romney only won 27% of the Hispanic vote.
    That will change. More people viewed Trump as a moderate in 2016, they don't any more.
    Also 8% of much smaller electorate, black turn out was way down.
    Which is why I have tipped Booker or Gillum as Warren's VP. Or Abrams for Biden.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited October 2019
    dyedwoolie:

    ***

    Losing her seat to the LDs :)

    ***

    McDonnell is giving a clear steer to the Momentumites. Go for a woman. It has to be a woman.

    I think he's right, it will be a woman. So that rules out the favourite, Keir Starmer. Next on the list is Rebecca Long Bailey. I just can't see it, she's too young and too obscure, and too unrehearsed.

    Which means the third on the list is likely: Emily Thornberry.

    Right now she is 10/1 which seems to be VALUE
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Anorak said:

    Byronic said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Massive incentive to vote tactically anti-Labour I reckon.
    Indeed but all it does is makes Richard Burgon's coronation inevitable.
    John McDonnell argues that it must be a woman. Is Richard Burgon willing to go that far to become Labour leader?
    It all points to Thornberry.
    I don't actually know alot abut her.

    Is she "nationalise all pencil manufacturers" or more realistic and attuned to how the world actually works?
    Big fan of flags, I believe.

    I don't think she's sufficiently lefty enough for the membership right now.
    I think she is malleable enough to be as lefty as she needs to be to keep the Corbyn wing happy, whilst looking more acceptable to the typical voter.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Massive incentive to vote tactically anti-Labour I reckon.
    Indeed but all it does is makes Richard Burgon's coronation inevitable.
    John McDonnell argues that it must be a woman. Is Richard Burgon willing to go that far to become Labour leader?
    He should take one for the team.

    If it has to be a woman then it should be Diane Abbott.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    I wonder if this will mean more people turning out for Labour thus them holding onto many of the seats they won in 2017? If Corbyn is no longer a threat it removes an objection for some to voting Labour whilst he is leader!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    What fantastic news about Jeremy Corbyn. Let's get a-voting.

    Now, I am three figures green on La Thornberry and four figures green each of Jonathan Ashworth and S Kinnock.

    Only question is - who the f&&& is Jonathan Ashworth??
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited October 2019

    Anorak said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Massive incentive to vote tactically anti-Labour I reckon.
    Indeed but all it does is makes Richard Burgon's coronation inevitable.
    Jeez. Can you imagine. The Forrest Gump of politics.
    When being interviewed, he always looks like a man who has won a competition to be on telly.
    I employed that look once, when I was interviewed as I alighted the plane in Portland, having flown from U.K. (via a couple of hours stopover in Chicago). I wasn't forewarned of a filmed arrival and in no fit state to talk! Rabbit Headlights moment!
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    148grss said:

    Anorak said:

    Byronic said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Massive incentive to vote tactically anti-Labour I reckon.
    Indeed but all it does is makes Richard Burgon's coronation inevitable.
    John McDonnell argues that it must be a woman. Is Richard Burgon willing to go that far to become Labour leader?
    It all points to Thornberry.
    I don't actually know alot abut her.

    Is she "nationalise all pencil manufacturers" or more realistic and attuned to how the world actually works?
    Big fan of flags, I believe.

    I don't think she's sufficiently lefty enough for the membership right now.
    I think she is malleable enough to be as lefty as she needs to be to keep the Corbyn wing happy, whilst looking more acceptable to the typical voter.
    I'd substitute "smart" for "malleable" in that, I don't think she'd be anybody's handpuppet.
  • A 2019 election was last backed at 1.78 on Betfair.

    An election has to be a clear lay if there's a deal surely?

    Priority will be to get the deal through, once through it will be job done now lets forget about politics for a bit and enjoy Christmas.
    Remember he still won’t have a majority, and he will still probably lose a vote on the Queen’s Speech and Budget.

    There again, he’ll be saying “I’m the man that secured a Brexit deal, but the opposition just voted down my proposals for two free owls for every home: we must have an election”. Not necessarily in Corbyn’s obvious interest to say “yes”.

    It will have become impossible for any alternative Gvt to have a majority though, if he has secured a deal. Interesting times.
    I expect that for Boris's Meaningful Vote any former Tories who vote with the government to endorse the deal will be allowed the whip back if they still want it. That will get him close to having his majority back once more.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Byronic said:

    dyedwoolie:

    ***

    Losing her seat to the LDs :)

    ***

    McDonnell is giving a clear steer to the Momentumites. Go for a woman. It has to be a woman.

    I think he's right, it will be a woman. So that rules out the favourite, Keir Starmer. Next on the list is Rebecca Long Bailey. I just can't see it, she's too young and too obscure, and too unrehearsed.

    Which means the third on the list is likely: Emily Thornberry.

    Right now she is 10/1 which seems to be VALUE

    Possibly but she is in real danger in Islington, the LDs were within 8% in 2010 and won at the Euros. Angela Rayner is a better bet, she will hold comfortably in greater Manchester
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    I wonder if this will mean more people turning out for Labour thus them holding onto many of the seats they won in 2017? If Corbyn is no longer a threat it removes an objection for some to voting Labour whilst he is leader!
    Eh? He's only not a threat if he loses. Voting to make Labour win means he's still there.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    Byronic said:

    dyedwoolie:

    ***

    Losing her seat to the LDs :)

    ***

    McDonnell is giving a clear steer to the Momentumites. Go for a woman. It has to be a woman.

    I think he's right, it will be a woman. So that rules out the favourite, Keir Starmer. Next on the list is Rebecca Long Bailey. I just can't see it, she's too young and too obscure, and too unrehearsed.

    Which means the third on the list is likely: Emily Thornberry.

    Right now she is 10/1 which seems to be VALUE

    McDonnell will want someone he can steer. That is Rebecca Long-Bailey, not Emily Thornberry.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    A 2019 election was last backed at 1.78 on Betfair.

    An election has to be a clear lay if there's a deal surely?

    Priority will be to get the deal through, once through it will be job done now lets forget about politics for a bit and enjoy Christmas.
    Remember he still won’t have a majority, and he will still probably lose a vote on the Queen’s Speech and Budget.

    There again, he’ll be saying “I’m the man that secured a Brexit deal, but the opposition just voted down my proposals for two free owls for every home: we must have an election”. Not necessarily in Corbyn’s obvious interest to say “yes”.

    It will have become impossible for any alternative Gvt to have a majority though, if he has secured a deal. Interesting times.
    I expect that for Boris's Meaningful Vote any former Tories who vote with the government to endorse the deal will be allowed the whip back if they still want it. That will get him close to having his majority back once more.
    Only if the DUP remain on side. That's a huge if.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Anorak said:

    148grss said:

    Anorak said:

    Byronic said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Massive incentive to vote tactically anti-Labour I reckon.
    Indeed but all it does is makes Richard Burgon's coronation inevitable.
    John McDonnell argues that it must be a woman. Is Richard Burgon willing to go that far to become Labour leader?
    It all points to Thornberry.
    I don't actually know alot abut her.

    Is she "nationalise all pencil manufacturers" or more realistic and attuned to how the world actually works?
    Big fan of flags, I believe.

    I don't think she's sufficiently lefty enough for the membership right now.
    I think she is malleable enough to be as lefty as she needs to be to keep the Corbyn wing happy, whilst looking more acceptable to the typical voter.
    I'd substitute "smart" for "malleable" in that, I don't think she'd be anybody's handpuppet.
    She's a kind of Emperor Claudius figure, she's kept her head largely down, and yet remained in court, throughout the reign of the mad Emperor Tiberius-Corbyn-Caligula-McDonnell.

    When Sejanus-voter finally kills Tiberius and his minnows, then Thornberry will emerge into the light, held aloft by the Pretorian-Momentum Guard.

    I need to work on this historical analogy.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Anorak said:

    148grss said:

    Anorak said:

    Byronic said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Massive incentive to vote tactically anti-Labour I reckon.
    Indeed but all it does is makes Richard Burgon's coronation inevitable.
    John McDonnell argues that it must be a woman. Is Richard Burgon willing to go that far to become Labour leader?
    It all points to Thornberry.
    I don't actually know alot abut her.

    Is she "nationalise all pencil manufacturers" or more realistic and attuned to how the world actually works?
    Big fan of flags, I believe.

    I don't think she's sufficiently lefty enough for the membership right now.
    I think she is malleable enough to be as lefty as she needs to be to keep the Corbyn wing happy, whilst looking more acceptable to the typical voter.
    I'd substitute "smart" for "malleable" in that, I don't think she'd be anybody's handpuppet.
    Maybe malleable wasn't the best work. Flexible, maybe?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    edited October 2019
    Byronic said:

    The £ is genuinely soaring now. Up 3 cents in a day. Well well well.

    More to the point, it's coming up to my go/no-go tripwires. If it crosses them (and I expect it will), I'll trade out of EUR/USD back into GBP. That will give me a high three-figure loss, although (due to an accounting quirk) it'll show up on my accounts as a three-figure profit.

    Basically the amount traded out is registered at the worst exchange rate instead of the actual rates they were traded as, so the loss was absorbed some weeks ago. As it is traded back, the amounts revert to the actual exchange rate and - since the loss is far less than the maximum loss - it shows up as a profit.

    Insurance coverage between now and Oct 31st will be covered by a bet on no-deal (now 4/1 on Paddy Power, lengthened from 5/2 a week ago). I won't come out of this smelling of roses, but I won't smell like shit either, which I am reliably informed is A Good Thing.

    And of course there's material for another article... :)
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    Pulpstar said:

    Massive incentive to vote tactically anti-Labour I reckon.
    Indeed but all it does is makes Richard Burgon's coronation inevitable.
    A man even more dense than jezza.
    Fake news. He read English at Cambridge, they don't let in just anybody there.
    But they let you in
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    dyedwoolie:

    ***

    Losing her seat to the LDs :)

    ***

    McDonnell is giving a clear steer to the Momentumites. Go for a woman. It has to be a woman.

    I think he's right, it will be a woman. So that rules out the favourite, Keir Starmer. Next on the list is Rebecca Long Bailey. I just can't see it, she's too young and too obscure, and too unrehearsed.

    Which means the third on the list is likely: Emily Thornberry.

    Right now she is 10/1 which seems to be VALUE

    Possibly but she is in real danger in Islington, the LDs were within 8% in 2010 and won at the Euros. Angela Rayner is a better bet, she will hold comfortably in greater Manchester
    Thornberry is a convinced and plausible Remainer. She's safe in N1.
  • 148grss said:

    Anorak said:

    Byronic said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Massive incentive to vote tactically anti-Labour I reckon.
    Indeed but all it does is makes Richard Burgon's coronation inevitable.
    John McDonnell argues that it must be a woman. Is Richard Burgon willing to go that far to become Labour leader?
    It all points to Thornberry.
    I don't actually know alot abut her.

    Is she "nationalise all pencil manufacturers" or more realistic and attuned to how the world actually works?
    Big fan of flags, I believe.

    I don't think she's sufficiently lefty enough for the membership right now.
    I think she is malleable enough to be as lefty as she needs to be to keep the Corbyn wing happy, whilst looking more acceptable to the typical voter.
    No-one ramping the terminally dim Laura Pidcock?
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