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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The mood changes on Brexit but the devil will be in the detail

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  • So no leaks between the end of the Barnier/Barcley meeting and the start of the Ambos briefing. Interesting.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Noo said:

    twitter.com/chrisgiles_/status/1182595006382645249?s=21

    All those remainers who are breathing a sigh of relief at a glimpse of ankle from yesterday's news, pay attention. This is hard Brexit. You've been gaslit into fearing No Deal so much you're now willing to listen to what was, three years ago, the nightmare scenario. Classic Overton window shenanigans. This is not a compromise. Revoke.
    I have no idea what an Overton is, but I am up for a darned good revocation! :D
    In case you're being serious about no knowing what the Overton window is:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overton_window
    Brexit is an all-time classic example.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    GIN1138 said:
    Also an uptick in those thinking we were right to leave - and in the way Brexit is being handled.

    Have we seen peak LibDem?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Mr. C, glad to hear some others felt the same way.

    Nobel: never heard of Ahmed before. The news should spend more time covering things like a man trying to liberalise his nation and bring peace to the region.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780

    Stocky said:

    I`ve long thought that the best way to "dishonour" the 2016 Referndum result will come when leavers themselves say they have changed their minds. I believe that many have buyer`s remorse but are reluctant to admit it.

    At the moment, the only remorse I have is that three and a half years on the goods I bought have still to be delivered and that the supplier is now arguing that the contract I signed was worthless.
    I trust you won't be purchasing from that supplier again?
    Given the chance (which is also being denied me at the moment) I'll be sueing those who reneged on the contract.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Byronic said:


    That's just brilliant! :lol:
    Rather clever, but very polarising. On that brief glimpse, she's much less annoying than Hillary
    Is anyone polarisable not yet polarised ?

    Point is she would make Trump look the lumbering walrus-wit he is in any presidential debate.
    And she has the timing to deliver a punchline that Hillary never did.
    Hillary won all 3 post debate polls, she still lost the election as they made no difference to Trump's base in Midwestern swing states
    What base? The base that voted for Romney at almost exactly the same rate?

    Missing Obama voters is the key, not cracking the "always voted Republican all their life block" .
    Trump did better with working class voters and poor voters in the key swing states that counted in the Midwest and South, Trump did worse than Romney with upper middle class voters in the coastal states that are safe Democratic anyway.

    For example, Trump got 47.5% in Michigan and Romney only got 44.7%.

    In California though Romney got 37.1% but Trump only got 31.6%.
    He did significantly worse with black and other ethnic minority voters. That’s why he is trying to suppress their vote in 2020.
    Wrong.

    Trump won 8% of the black vote, Romney only won 6% of the black vote.

    Trump also won 29% of the Hispanic vote, Romney only won 27% of the Hispanic vote.
    That will change. More people viewed Trump as a moderate in 2016, they don't any more.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    GIN1138 said:
    No way Corbyn is going to allow an election!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153

    GIN1138 said:
    Also an uptick in those thinking we were right to leave - and in the way Brexit is being handled.

    Have we seen peak LibDem?
    If Boris pulls off a deal by 31st October the skies the limit. :)
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited October 2019
    GIN1138 said:
    Flavible has the patented DyedWoolie bellwether for the end of Labour, Sunderland Central as TCTC ;)
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Irrespective of today's numbers, the change in the chart in March/April this year is quite remarkable. FPTP is doomed if that persists.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,268
    148grss said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Byronic said:


    That's just brilliant! :lol:
    Rather clever, but very polarising. On that brief glimpse, she's much less annoying than Hillary
    Is anyone polarisable not yet polarised ?

    Point is she would make Trump look the lumbering walrus-wit he is in any presidential debate.
    And she has the timing to deliver a punchline that Hillary never did.
    Hillary won all 3 post debate polls, she still lost the election as they made no difference to Trump's base in Midwestern swing states
    What base? The base that voted for Romney at almost exactly the same rate?

    Missing Obama voters is the key, not cracking the "always voted Republican all their life block" .
    Trump did better with working class voters and poor voters than Romney in the key swing states that counted in the Midwest and South, Trump did worse than Romney with upper middle class voters in the coastal states that are safe Democratic anyway.

    For example, Trump got 47.5% in Michigan and Romney only got 44.7%.

    In California though Romney got 37.1% but Trump only got 31.6%.
    I mean, Trump won at the margins previously, and it is uncommon for a POTUS to do better in their reelection campaign than their first; especially a POTUS as unpopular as this one. Democrats have lots of possible target states to make headway. The rust belt will like Warren more than Clinton. Florida has given the vote to ex convicts and has had recent immigrants with voting rights from Puerto Rico. Nevada is increasingly looking purple, and I know every year people talk about Texas, but again, it could happen.

    This is no cake walk for Trump; far from it. Should his approvals fall any further and / or a real *cough*MittRomney*cough* primary challenger turn up who can get around 25% of the GOP vote, it doesn't spell good odds for his reelection.
    Of recent re elected Presidents Bush, Clinton, Reagan, Nixon all won by more in their re election campaign than their first campaign, only Obama did worse
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    Nigelb said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Many Leavers will hate this but some perhaps not. An interesting read anyway.

    https://twitter.com/OnaliEnrico/status/1182562838172315648?s=20

    Like so many Leavers, he'll be dead very soon, so who cares what he thinks. He's 87
    Such bitterness! One might think JLC had had a much more successful & illustrious career in the male modelling trade than yer guid self.
    I was clearly satirising Remainer attitudes to old people.

    That said there is a definite tiny subset of crotchety old writers who have been driven tonto by Brexit.

    Philip Pullman
    Ian McEwan
    Michael Morpurgo
    and now
    John Le Carre?

    Have all gone variously round the bend. There are probably others.
    That's not an entirely unfair comment... but haven't you been round it three or four times and come back for more ? :smile:
    No, Nigel. That was our very won Sean T.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,767

    So no leaks between the end of the Barnier/Barcley meeting and the start of the Ambos briefing. Interesting.

    Quite possibly 'sh*t just got real' in the negotiations.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357

    Nobel Peace Prize - very glad they went for the grown up choice. Possibly off to Ethiopia next year.

    Only ever been there for a couple of days, having meetings with Our Man in Addis before heading out to Somalia....

    The British Embassy is enormous. Has its own 9 hole golf club within the grounds.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,125
    Selebian said:

    nunuone said:

    Disagree.

    No matter what Clinton said it always had a feel of preparation, like nothing was off the cuff.

    Warren however to me seems more natural, and 100% more likeable. Will she win the electoral college? Who knows.
    Agree with tht first point. Also Ed Milliband's problem.

    But also, the ability to essentially say to the hypothetical voter, "I disagree with you on this, if that's a big problem then don't vote for me". That gets my respect whatever my own view on the issue.
    Yes, I think there is something to be said for being unapologetically for what you are for. If you can do it with humour so much the better. But the shot at the end "if you can find one" is maybe unhelpful?

    I think Warren comes across as much more likeable than Hillary Clinton, so could easily do better. And even if she is, as someone suggested "John Kerry" (whatever that means), Trump is more unpopular than George W. Bush ever was during his first term, so she could easily do better than Kerry too.
  • She's miles better than Hillary, and she doesn't have the dodgy baggage. She's also extremely well organised - I don't think she'll make the arrogant blunders that Hillary made in her campaign.
    At an Invesco investment conference recently we were told she was the US version of Corbyn in terms of US political spectrum and with her potential policies for tech, banks and pharma stocks? Was that overly alarmist?
    Yes, I think it is. She'd certainly increase regulation on big business and increase taxes substantially on the very rich, but there's plenty of scope to do that in the US without it really being anything extreme or damaging.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited October 2019

    The only problem with this analysis is that T May did not negotiate a long term brexit end point. She negotiated a transition deal with the future to be negotiated. Also how dividing a reduction in GDP and dividing by the population and shouting we will ALL be poorer is a little hyperbolic.
    I thought I’d just help you all and flag the important caveat at the start of the document - you seem to have forgotten to do so. You’re using the word “poorer” to mean “less rich than we might have been”.



  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,891
    edited October 2019

    Altrincham & Sale West: Remain 61.4%

    Penistone & Stocksbridge: Remain 39.3%

    You can see the attraction of the move.

    Also worth noting that at GE2017 Brady lost vote share, against the national tide for the Conservatives. Clearly a Brexit effect involved.
    Can't see old lady being deposed by our Angela.
    Nigelb said:

    Speaking of Romney, he is perhaps on manoeuvres.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/11/mitt-romney-2020-plan-to-help-republicans-044221

    Very happy about my 1000/1 bet on him for 2020.

    He's very unlikely, but every bet has a price - and that price makes it a good bet.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Stocky said:

    I`ve long thought that the best way to "dishonour" the 2016 Referndum result will come when leavers themselves say they have changed their minds. I believe that many have buyer`s remorse but are reluctant to admit it.

    At the moment, the only remorse I have is that three and a half years on the goods I bought have still to be delivered and that the supplier is now arguing that the contract I signed was worthless.
    Ooooh, legal analogies. You had, at best, a worthless agreement to agree on something which you were induced to enter by fraudulent misrepresentation. You lacked capacity to contract, the goods turned out not to exist so the contract was frustrated, and it was all void all the time anyway as being contrary to public policy.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2019

    GIN1138 said:
    Also an uptick in those thinking we were right to leave - and in the way Brexit is being handled.

    Have we seen peak LibDem?
    Apparently the poeple who were so angry about Brexit that the Lib Dems got 7% of the vote in 2017, despite being the only party to vote for if you wanted the decision reversed or the question asked again, are going to be even angrier next time
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    nunuone said:

    GIN1138 said:
    No way Corbyn is going to allow an election!
    The Lib Dems and SNP however could be looking at 50 and 15 odd gains respectively and as such will want one asap
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Just for info the Telegraph say they have seen a poll conducted for the Tory Party presented at conference. Done by Comres, 2050 respondents.

    Summary figure at end is the + or - for a maj.

    Leave with deal after extension -14
    Leave with no deal after extension -18
    Revoking article 50 remain in EU Labour -39 short
    Leave with deal on 31st +118
    Leave no deal on 31st +114
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,268
    148grss said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Byronic said:


    That's just brilliant! :lol:
    Rather clever, but very polarising. On that brief glimpse, she's much less annoying than Hillary
    Is anyone polarisable not yet polarised ?

    Point is she would make Trump look the lumbering walrus-wit he is in any presidential debate.
    And she has the timing to deliver a punchline that Hillary never did.
    Hillary won all 3 post debate polls, she still lost the election as they made no difference to Trump's base in Midwestern swing states
    What base? The base that voted for Romney at almost exactly the same rate?

    Missing Obama voters is the key, not cracking the "always voted Republican all their life block" .
    Trump did better with working class voters and poor voters in the key swing states that counted in the Midwest and South, Trump did worse than Romney with upper middle class voters in the coastal states that are safe Democratic anyway.

    For example, Trump got 47.5% in Michigan and Romney only got 44.7%.

    In California though Romney got 37.1% but Trump only got 31.6%.
    He did significantly worse with black and other ethnic minority voters. That’s why he is trying to suppress their vote in 2020.
    Wrong.

    Trump won 8% of the black vote, Romney only won 6% of the black vote.

    Trump also won 29% of the Hispanic vote, Romney only won 27% of the Hispanic vote.
    That will change. More people viewed Trump as a moderate in 2016, they don't any more.
    Blacks and Hispanics who ever vote Republican tend to be very socially conservative, not moderate
  • HYUFD said:


    As long as Diehard Remainers

    "I am an exceptional Remainer, Mr HYUFD, and since I'm moving up to Revoking, you should be more polite!"

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited October 2019
    Noo said:

    All those remainers who are breathing a sigh of relief at a glimpse of ankle from yesterday's news, pay attention. This is hard Brexit. You've been gaslit into fearing No Deal so much you're now willing to listen to what was, three years ago, the nightmare scenario. Classic Overton window shenanigans. This is not a compromise. Revoke.
    Well I'm in the very boat you describe (relief but prefer revoke). Although it's a harder brexit than I wanted it at least sets out a stable platform on which to build, and gradually soften our relationship over the years to come. The first whiff of chlorinated chicken will be a turning point for some, I predict.
  • So no leaks between the end of the Barnier/Barcley meeting and the start of the Ambos briefing. Interesting.

    Quite possibly 'sh*t just got real' in the negotiations.
    "It's OK to say "shit". It ain't against God!"
  • The only problem with this analysis is that T May did not negotiate a long term brexit end point. She negotiated a transition deal with the future to be negotiated. Also how dividing a reduction in GDP and dividing by the population and shouting we will ALL be poorer is a little hyperbolic.
    Yes. Some of us will be a lot poorer.
    But fortunately not lawyers, who will have a bonanza for years.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,268

    Just for info the Telegraph say they have seen a poll conducted for the Tory Party presented at conference. Done by Comres, 2050 respondents.

    Summary figure at end is the + or - for a maj.

    Leave with deal after extension -14
    Leave with no deal after extension -18
    Revoking article 50 remain in EU Labour -39 short
    Leave with deal on 31st +118
    Leave no deal on 31st +114

    So Brexit Deal or No Deal on 31st October remains the best position for the Tories and if they revoke Corbyn likely becomes PM
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:
    Also an uptick in those thinking we were right to leave - and in the way Brexit is being handled.

    Have we seen peak LibDem?
    If Boris pulls off a deal by 31st October the skies the limit. :)
    Bootle-tastic!
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,609
    kamski said:

    Selebian said:

    nunuone said:

    Disagree.

    No matter what Clinton said it always had a feel of preparation, like nothing was off the cuff.

    Warren however to me seems more natural, and 100% more likeable. Will she win the electoral college? Who knows.
    Agree with tht first point. Also Ed Milliband's problem.

    But also, the ability to essentially say to the hypothetical voter, "I disagree with you on this, if that's a big problem then don't vote for me". That gets my respect whatever my own view on the issue.
    Yes, I think there is something to be said for being unapologetically for what you are for. If you can do it with humour so much the better. But the shot at the end "if you can find one" is maybe unhelpful?

    I think Warren comes across as much more likeable than Hillary Clinton, so could easily do better. And even if she is, as someone suggested "John Kerry" (whatever that means), Trump is more unpopular than George W. Bush ever was during his first term, so she could easily do better than Kerry too.
    Yep, the final comment is unhelpful, as it is (or can be taken as) mocking people who might hold those views for whatever reason. Does it lose any votes that otherwise might have gone her way? I'm not sure.

    The (explicit) assumption that the person asking is a man also seemed a bit odd, although maybe there is evidence that views on marriage are very much split on gender lines in the US to make it reasonable. A man saying he assumed that kind of question came from a woman would likely be called out.
  • isam said:

    GIN1138 said:
    Also an uptick in those thinking we were right to leave - and in the way Brexit is being handled.

    Have we seen peak LibDem?
    Apparently the poeple who were so angry about Brexit that the Lib Dems got 7% of the vote in 2017, despite being the only party to vote for if you wanted the decision reversed or the question asked again, are going to be even angrier next time
    There are people that, when the facts change, change their mind. Then there are the tunnel visioned fanatics and downright stupid who still believe in a fantasy world known as Brexit
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,800

    Also an uptick in those thinking we were right to leave - and in the way Brexit is being handled.

    Have we seen peak LibDem?

    All changes small and well within margin of error so no need to get overexcited.

    We're still a long way from a Conservative landslide - we haven't got a Deal yet, it hasn't been approved by either the EU or the Commons yet let alone (if it happens) by a second referendum.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    HYUFD said:

    148grss said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Byronic said:


    That's just brilliant! :lol:
    Rather clever, but very polarising. On that brief glimpse, she's much less annoying than Hillary
    Is anyone polarisable not yet polarised ?

    Point is she would make Trump look the lumbering walrus-wit he is in any presidential debate.
    And she has the timing to deliver a punchline that Hillary never did.
    Hillary won all 3 post debate polls, she still lost the election as they made no difference to Trump's base in Midwestern swing states
    What base? The base that voted for Romney at almost exactly the same rate?

    Missing Obama voters is the key, not cracking the "always voted Republican all their life block" .
    Trump did better with working class voters and poor voters in the key swing states that counted in the Midwest and South, Trump did worse than Romney with upper middle class voters in the coastal states that are safe Democratic anyway.

    For example, Trump got 47.5% in Michigan and Romney only got 44.7%.

    In California though Romney got 37.1% but Trump only got 31.6%.
    He did significantly worse with black and other ethnic minority voters. That’s why he is trying to suppress their vote in 2020.
    Wrong.

    Trump won 8% of the black vote, Romney only won 6% of the black vote.

    Trump also won 29% of the Hispanic vote, Romney only won 27% of the Hispanic vote.
    That will change. More people viewed Trump as a moderate in 2016, they don't any more.
    Blacks and Hispanics who ever vote Republican tend to be very socially conservative, not moderate
    He was viewed as economically moderate as well. He did basically say he'd be happy with nationalised healthcare, and wouldn't touch Social Security or Medicare, etc.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    The only problem with this analysis is that T May did not negotiate a long term brexit end point. She negotiated a transition deal with the future to be negotiated. Also how dividing a reduction in GDP and dividing by the population and shouting we will ALL be poorer is a little hyperbolic.
    Yes. Some of us will be a lot poorer.
    But fortunately not lawyers, who will have a bonanza for years.

    Blessed are the Lawyers for they shall inherit the Earth.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    I see we're entering the 'denial' phase, where the fertile hope of a Brexit resolution is being poisoned by reality and the DUP, but people are pretending it's just a bit of leaf mildew rather than dutch elm disease.

    I predict it'll be dead by Monday.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    "No way Corbyn is going to allow an election!
    The Lib Dems and SNP however could be looking at 50 and 15 odd gains respectively and as such will want one asap"

    SNP: want a GE
    Libdems: want a GE, ideally before we have left the EU
    Labour: go not want a GE

    I know Corbyn keeps saying he wants a GE, but that is rather like when Gordon Brown kept saying he is prudent with taxpayer money.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Not entirely unsurprising given recent polls.

    Of the polls with fieldwork in October, in every poll the Conservatives have either equalled or exceeded their polling high under Johnson's leadership i.e. exceeded with Opinium and ComRes, and equalled with YouGov and BMG.

    A temporary blip from the Conservative conference will have helped them in some of those at the start of October, but not in this most recent YouGov. Not that we should write off conference bounces as meaningless, given the absence of one for Corbyn.

  • Just for info the Telegraph say they have seen a poll conducted for the Tory Party presented at conference. Done by Comres, 2050 respondents.

    Summary figure at end is the + or - for a maj.

    Leave with deal after extension -14
    Leave with no deal after extension -18
    Revoking article 50 remain in EU Labour -39 short
    Leave with deal on 31st +118
    Leave no deal on 31st +114

    And there, my friends, you have the clearest possible indicator of why the opposition parties ain't gonna be helping Boris meet his brain-dead do-or-die pledge.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,268
    148grss said:

    HYUFD said:

    148grss said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Byronic said:


    That's just brilliant! :lol:
    Rather clever, but very polarising. On that brief glimpse, she's much less annoying than Hillary
    Is anyone polarisable not yet polarised ?

    Point is she would make Trump look the lumbering walrus-wit he is in any presidential debate.
    And she has the timing to deliver a punchline that Hillary never did.
    Hillary won all 3 post debate polls, she still lost the election as they made no difference to Trump's base in Midwestern swing states
    What base? The base that voted for Romney at almost exactly the same rate?

    Missing Obama voters is the key, not cracking the "always voted Republican all their life block" .
    Trump did better with working class voters and poor voters in the ot 31.6%.
    He did significantly worse with black and other ethnic minority voters. That’s why he is trying to suppress their vote in 2020.
    Wrong.

    Trump won 8% of the black vote, Romney only won 6% of the black vote.

    Trump also won 29% of the Hispanic vote, Romney only won 27% of the Hispanic vote.
    That will change. More people viewed Trump as a moderate in 2016, they don't any more.
    Blacks and Hispanics who ever vote Republican tend to be very socially conservative, not moderate
    He was viewed as economically moderate as well. He did basically say he'd be happy with nationalised healthcare, and wouldn't touch Social Security or Medicare, etc.
    And he hasn't changed those areas
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2019

    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:
    Also an uptick in those thinking we were right to leave - and in the way Brexit is being handled.

    Have we seen peak LibDem?
    Apparently the poeple who were so angry about Brexit that the Lib Dems got 7% of the vote in 2017, despite being the only party to vote for if you wanted the decision reversed or the question asked again, are going to be even angrier next time
    There are people that, when the facts change, change their mind. Then there are the tunnel visioned fanatics and downright stupid who still believe in a fantasy world known as Brexit
    Ooh you surely dont mean me?! How edgily passive aggressive :smile:

  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    HYUFD said:

    Just for info the Telegraph say they have seen a poll conducted for the Tory Party presented at conference. Done by Comres, 2050 respondents.

    Summary figure at end is the + or - for a maj.

    Leave with deal after extension -14
    Leave with no deal after extension -18
    Revoking article 50 remain in EU Labour -39 short
    Leave with deal on 31st +118
    Leave no deal on 31st +114

    So Brexit Deal or No Deal on 31st October remains the best position for the Tories and if they revoke Corbyn likely becomes PM
    That indicates that leaving with No Deal rather than a deal would cost the Tories just two seats, whenever it happened. So there's a built-in assumption that No Deal, compared with a deal, will lead to no significant problems for the population by the time of the election.

    I don't think anyone could ask for a clearer demonstration of how meaningless voting intention polls are at the moment.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    Foxy said:

    malcolmg said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Dr Abiy Ahmed (Ethiopia) wins the Nobel peace prize!

    Who is he
    Leader of Ethiopia.

    He has brought to an end the long running war with Eritrea, freed political prisoners, restored democracy, revitalised the economy and started a massive reforestation programme.

    Ethiopia has perhaps turned a corner.
    thanks
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753

    Stocky said:

    I`ve long thought that the best way to "dishonour" the 2016 Referndum result will come when leavers themselves say they have changed their minds. I believe that many have buyer`s remorse but are reluctant to admit it.

    At the moment, the only remorse I have is that three and a half years on the goods I bought have still to be delivered and that the supplier is now arguing that the contract I signed was worthless.
    You ordered food and they offered steak at which point you said you preferred the fish and steak was a betrayal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,268
    148grss said:

    HYUFD said:

    148grss said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    nunuone said:

    Disagree.

    No matter what Clinton said it always had a feel of preparation, like nothing was off the cuff.

    Warren however to me seems more natural, and 100% more likeable. Will she win the electoral college? Who knows.
    Warren is a female John Kerry or Michael Dukakis to Hillary's Al Gore
    Are you capable of any comment on US presidential politics other than far fetched equivalencies ?
    I say what I have learnt from the last few decades of US presidential elections, if liberals on here don't like the findings tough
    LOL.
    I think people ignore that Warren used to be a Republican and probably voted for Reagan. She had a Damascus moment when she was studying poverty and realised that government regulation can do good for people. She is good at explaining why the government should do things in a way GOP voters understand and like. She isn't Bernie or Biden, who have better support amongst working class white voters atm, but she will do better than Clinton did.
    Not so sure, I think Warren could lose a few fiscal conservatives who voted for Hillary as they dislike Trump in areas like Orange County, California while failing to win working class Trump voters in the Midwest
    She can afford to lose fiscal conservatives in OC, or NY, or anywhere solidly blue. Any Dem will do better than pre Trump era in the suburbs; we've seen this in House races across multiple states. And I think Clinton was uniquely reviled by many voters, even historic Democratic voters. Warren is much more popular than Clinton, and will do better with working class whites than Clinton. Trump barely won the rust belt first time around, and he hasn't become any more popular.

    Trump 2016: Michigan, won by ~ 0.25%, Pennsylvannia, won by less than 1%, Wisconsin, won by less than 1%. If Warren loses no Clinton state, that is a Warren win.
    Latest Michigan poll including Warren Trump 42% Warren 41%, Biden 42% Trump 41%

    http://firehousestrategies.com/exclusive-survey-democrats-lead-trump-in-key-swing-states/
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    edited October 2019
    HYUFD said:

    148grss said:

    HYUFD said:

    148grss said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Byronic said:


    That's just brilliant! :lol:
    Rather clever, but very polarising. On that brief glimpse, she's much less annoying than Hillary
    Is anyone polarisable not yet polarised ?

    Point is she would make Trump look the lumbering walrus-wit he is in any presidential debate.
    And she has the timing to deliver a punchline that Hillary never did.
    Hillary won all 3 post debate polls, she still lost the election as they made no difference to Trump's base in Midwestern swing states
    What base? The base that voted for Romney at almost exactly the same rate?

    Missing Obama voters is the key, not cracking the "always voted Republican all their life block" .
    Trump did better with working class voters and poor voters in the ot 31.6%.
    He did significantly worse with black and other ethnic minority voters. That’s why he is trying to suppress their vote in 2020.
    Wrong.

    Trump won 8% of the black vote, Romney only won 6% of the black vote.

    Trump also won 29% of the Hispanic vote, Romney only won 27% of the Hispanic vote.
    That will change. More people viewed Trump as a moderate in 2016, they don't any more.
    Blacks and Hispanics who ever vote Republican tend to be very socially conservative, not moderate
    He was viewed as economically moderate as well. He did basically say he'd be happy with nationalised healthcare, and wouldn't touch Social Security or Medicare, etc.
    And he hasn't changed those areas
    But he hasn't stopped GOP orthodoxy. Which has been very Ryanesque and unpopular, not Trumpy. Even Trump has admitted this, saying calling everything socialist won't work and saying it's hard to fight against "free stuff".

    Also, Trump said he'd raise taxes on the wealthy, now the wealthiest have a lower effective tax rate than ever.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,268
    edited October 2019

    Just for info the Telegraph say they have seen a poll conducted for the Tory Party presented at conference. Done by Comres, 2050 respondents.

    Summary figure at end is the + or - for a maj.

    Leave with deal after extension -14
    Leave with no deal after extension -18
    Revoking article 50 remain in EU Labour -39 short
    Leave with deal on 31st +118
    Leave no deal on 31st +114

    And there, my friends, you have the clearest possible indicator of why the opposition parties ain't gonna be helping Boris meet his brain-dead do-or-die pledge.
    Well at least Boris won't hand Corbyn Downing Street on a plate as you would by promising to extend and remain in the EU for evermore rather than go to No Deal if a Deal is not passed
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    edited October 2019

    Just for info the Telegraph say they have seen a poll conducted for the Tory Party presented at conference. Done by Comres, 2050 respondents.

    Summary figure at end is the + or - for a maj.

    Leave with deal after extension -14
    Leave with no deal after extension -18
    Revoking article 50 remain in EU Labour -39 short
    Leave with deal on 31st +118
    Leave no deal on 31st +114

    And there, my friends, you have the clearest possible indicator of why the opposition parties ain't gonna be helping Boris meet his brain-dead do-or-die pledge.
    You think the opposition parties are going to be getting a Brucie bonus from the voters for ever-delaying Brexit? Anybody that keeps this saga being retold over the campfire is going to be on the wrong end of a Beserker....
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    Just for info the Telegraph say they have seen a poll conducted for the Tory Party presented at conference. Done by Comres, 2050 respondents.

    Summary figure at end is the + or - for a maj.

    Leave with deal after extension -14
    Leave with no deal after extension -18
    Revoking article 50 remain in EU Labour -39 short
    Leave with deal on 31st +118
    Leave no deal on 31st +114

    And there, my friends, you have the clearest possible indicator of why the opposition parties ain't gonna be helping Boris meet his brain-dead do-or-die pledge.
    My first thought as well.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209

    malcolmg said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Dr Abiy Ahmed (Ethiopia) wins the Nobel peace prize!

    Who is he
    Ended the 20 year war between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

    Cheers
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    edited October 2019
    HYUFD said:

    148grss said:

    HYUFD said:

    148grss said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    nunuone said:

    Disagree.

    No matter what Clinton said it always had a feel of preparation, like nothing was off the cuff.

    Warren however to me seems more natural, and 100% more likeable. Will she win the electoral college? Who knows.
    Warren is a female John Kerry or Michael Dukakis to Hillary's Al Gore
    Are you capable of any comment on US presidential politics other than far fetched equivalencies ?
    I say what I have learnt from the last few decades of US presidential elections, if liberals on here don't like the findings tough
    LOL.
    I think people ignore that Warren used to be a Republican and probably voted for Reagan. She had a Damascus moment when she was studying poverty and realised that government regulation can do good for people. She is good at explaining why the government should do things in a way GOP voters understand and like. She isn't Bernie or Biden, who have better support amongst working class white voters atm, but she will do better than Clinton did.
    Not so sure, I think Warren could lose a few fiscal conservatives who voted for Hillary as they dislike Trump in areas like Orange County, California while failing to win working class Trump voters in the Midwest
    She can afford to lose fiscal conservatives in OC, or NY, or anywhere solidly blue. Any Dem will do better than pre Trump era in the suburbs; we've seen this in House races across multiple states. And I think Clinton was uniquely reviled by many voters, even historic Democratic voters. Warren is much more popular than Clinton, and will do better with working class whites than Clinton. Trump barely won the rust belt first time around, and he hasn't become any more popular.

    Trump 2016: Michigan, won by ~ 0.25%, Pennsylvannia, won by less than 1%, Wisconsin, won by less than 1%. If Warren loses no Clinton state, that is a Warren win.
    Latest Michigan poll including Warren Trump 42% Warren 41%, Biden 42% Trump 41%

    http://firehousestrategies.com/exclusive-survey-democrats-lead-trump-in-key-swing-states/
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/Michigan.html

    Average +4 for Warren in Michigan, +3.5 in Pennsylvania.

    In FLORIDA, Warren is winning or tying in current polling.

    This is all within margin of error, and with impeachment and Trumps approval, I can't imagine it will get better for Trump.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,268
    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just for info the Telegraph say they have seen a poll conducted for the Tory Party presented at conference. Done by Comres, 2050 respondents.

    Summary figure at end is the + or - for a maj.

    Leave with deal after extension -14
    Leave with no deal after extension -18
    Revoking article 50 remain in EU Labour -39 short
    Leave with deal on 31st +118
    Leave no deal on 31st +114

    So Brexit Deal or No Deal on 31st October remains the best position for the Tories and if they revoke Corbyn likely becomes PM
    That indicates that leaving with No Deal rather than a deal would cost the Tories just two seats, whenever it happened. So there's a built-in assumption that No Deal, compared with a deal, will lead to no significant problems for the population by the time of the election.

    I don't think anyone could ask for a clearer demonstration of how meaningless voting intention polls are at the moment.
    Given No Deal would likely only occur after a Tory majority at a general election they are not meaningless
  • You think the opposition parties are going to be getting Brucie bonus from the voters for ever-delaying Brexit? Anybody that keeps this saga being retold over the campfire is going to be on the wrong end of a Beserker....

    They don't need to. Just a few weeks delay and Farage and the Spartans will do the rest. After all, no-one forced Boris to make a fetish out of an arbitrary date. He did it all by himself. He didn't even need to do so to get the leadership gig.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Just for info the Telegraph say they have seen a poll conducted for the Tory Party presented at conference. Done by Comres, 2050 respondents.

    Summary figure at end is the + or - for a maj.

    Leave with deal after extension -14
    Leave with no deal after extension -18
    Revoking article 50 remain in EU Labour -39 short
    Leave with deal on 31st +118
    Leave no deal on 31st +114

    And there, my friends, you have the clearest possible indicator of why the opposition parties ain't gonna be helping Boris meet his brain-dead do-or-die pledge.
    You think the opposition parties are going to be getting a Brucie bonus from the voters for ever-delaying Brexit? Anybody that keeps this saga being retold over the campfire is going to be on the wrong end of a Beserker....
    Out of interest, will this "Beserker" be accompanied with the cry Brexitu akbar?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123

    You think the opposition parties are going to be getting Brucie bonus from the voters for ever-delaying Brexit? Anybody that keeps this saga being retold over the campfire is going to be on the wrong end of a Beserker....

    They don't need to. Just a few weeks delay and Farage and the Spartans will do the rest. After all, no-one forced Boris to make a fetish out of an arbitrary date. He did it all by himself. He didn't even need to do so to get the leadership gig.
    Say Boris does the extension and there's no election of VoNC. What do anticipate the Tory/BXP scores being in the polls that follow?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2019

    You think the opposition parties are going to be getting Brucie bonus from the voters for ever-delaying Brexit? Anybody that keeps this saga being retold over the campfire is going to be on the wrong end of a Beserker....

    They don't need to. Just a few weeks delay and Farage and the Spartans will do the rest. After all, no-one forced Boris to make a fetish out of an arbitrary date. He did it all by himself. He didn't even need to do so to get the leadership gig.
    What makes you so sure that Leave voters will be unwilling to forgive Boris for getting a deal done by Nov 31 or Dec 31? If he agrees one with the EU and parliament wont back it, and have made No deal illegal, I dont think it's he they will blame
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Anorak said:

    I see we're entering the 'denial' phase, where the fertile hope of a Brexit resolution is being poisoned by reality and the DUP, but people are pretending it's just a bit of leaf mildew rather than dutch elm disease.

    I predict it'll be dead by Monday.

    We can always hope...
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    isam said:

    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:
    Also an uptick in those thinking we were right to leave - and in the way Brexit is being handled.

    Have we seen peak LibDem?
    Apparently the poeple who were so angry about Brexit that the Lib Dems got 7% of the vote in 2017, despite being the only party to vote for if you wanted the decision reversed or the question asked again, are going to be even angrier next time
    There are people that, when the facts change, change their mind. Then there are the tunnel visioned fanatics and downright stupid who still believe in a fantasy world known as Brexit
    Ooh you surely dont mean me?! How edgily passive aggressive :smile:

    U mad bro?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just for info the Telegraph say they have seen a poll conducted for the Tory Party presented at conference. Done by Comres, 2050 respondents.

    Summary figure at end is the + or - for a maj.

    Leave with deal after extension -14
    Leave with no deal after extension -18
    Revoking article 50 remain in EU Labour -39 short
    Leave with deal on 31st +118
    Leave no deal on 31st +114

    So Brexit Deal or No Deal on 31st October remains the best position for the Tories and if they revoke Corbyn likely becomes PM
    That indicates that leaving with No Deal rather than a deal would cost the Tories just two seats, whenever it happened. So there's a built-in assumption that No Deal, compared with a deal, will lead to no significant problems for the population by the time of the election.

    I don't think anyone could ask for a clearer demonstration of how meaningless voting intention polls are at the moment.
    Given No Deal would likely only occur after a Tory majority at a general election they are not meaningless
    ???????

    I was replying to your conclusion that the best position for the Tories was leaving by 31 October!

    Do you ever think about what you're writing?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Noo said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:
    Also an uptick in those thinking we were right to leave - and in the way Brexit is being handled.

    Have we seen peak LibDem?
    Apparently the poeple who were so angry about Brexit that the Lib Dems got 7% of the vote in 2017, despite being the only party to vote for if you wanted the decision reversed or the question asked again, are going to be even angrier next time
    There are people that, when the facts change, change their mind. Then there are the tunnel visioned fanatics and downright stupid who still believe in a fantasy world known as Brexit
    Ooh you surely dont mean me?! How edgily passive aggressive :smile:

    U mad bro?
    Lovin it lovin it lovin it
  • GIN1138 said:
    First thing I did was to check it wasn't You_Gov
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320

    You think the opposition parties are going to be getting Brucie bonus from the voters for ever-delaying Brexit? Anybody that keeps this saga being retold over the campfire is going to be on the wrong end of a Beserker....

    They don't need to. Just a few weeks delay and Farage and the Spartans will do the rest. After all, no-one forced Boris to make a fetish out of an arbitrary date. He did it all by himself. He didn't even need to do so to get the leadership gig.
    One plausible scenario is that Boris brings back a deal, parliament rejects it and Boris gets an initial bounce but then all the details get scrutinised and the general reaction is "I can't believe he was going to sign us up for this".
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    twitter.com/chrisgiles_/status/1182595006382645249?s=21

    All those remainers who are breathing a sigh of relief at a glimpse of ankle from yesterday's news, pay attention. This is hard Brexit. You've been gaslit into fearing No Deal so much you're now willing to listen to what was, three years ago, the nightmare scenario. Classic Overton window shenanigans. This is not a compromise. Revoke.
    I have no idea what an Overton is, but I am up for a darned good revocation! :D
    In case you're being serious about no knowing what the Overton window is:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overton_window
    Brexit is an all-time classic example.
    Thanks. I had thought it was probably a football metaphor of some sort so I never bothered looking it up. You know what this place can be like for sporting references...
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    It is Lib Dem Angela Smith versus Sir Graham Brady next GE.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    stodge said:

    Also an uptick in those thinking we were right to leave - and in the way Brexit is being handled.

    Have we seen peak LibDem?

    All changes small and well within margin of error so no need to get overexcited.

    We're still a long way from a Conservative landslide - we haven't got a Deal yet, it hasn't been approved by either the EU or the Commons yet let alone (if it happens) by a second referendum.
    If the Commons agree a deal I am in the no second referendum camp. This house has the democratic legitimacy to approve a deal.

    Having a second referendum will take time, adding uncertainty and potentially economic harm through that uncertainty. It will cause the rehash of arguments old and new and give us months to shout at each other further entrenching unreconcilable positions.

    It is in the interests many sectors for the decision to be the job of the MPs and Commons to make this decision in the shortest time possible.

    The Political parties are the institutions put most at risk by making the decision, We shouldn't allow them to cop out (largely for political optics and cowardice).
  • tlg86 said:

    You think the opposition parties are going to be getting Brucie bonus from the voters for ever-delaying Brexit? Anybody that keeps this saga being retold over the campfire is going to be on the wrong end of a Beserker....

    They don't need to. Just a few weeks delay and Farage and the Spartans will do the rest. After all, no-one forced Boris to make a fetish out of an arbitrary date. He did it all by himself. He didn't even need to do so to get the leadership gig.
    Say Boris does the extension and there's no election of VoNC. What do anticipate the Tory/BXP scores being in the polls that follow?
    Depends a lot on the timing I think. Boris's support will leach away, as indeed any new leader's support tends to, but more rapidly than usually happens because of the particular circumstances of Brexit and do-or-die. At the moment a lot of the more extreme Leavers are giving him the benefit of the doubt, but as he wrestles with the real world that's bound to shift. His best date for an election would have been October as he probably planned.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Chris said:

    ???????

    I was replying to your conclusion that the best position for the Tories was leaving by 31 October!

    Do you ever think about what you're writing?

    I made the conscious decision yesterday to skip over all posts from a certain poster. It's made PB a whole lot more enjoyable. Disagreements and alternative points of view are fine; non-sequiturs and endless dumb statements are not. Just sayin'.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Anorak said:

    Noo said:

    All those remainers who are breathing a sigh of relief at a glimpse of ankle from yesterday's news, pay attention. This is hard Brexit. You've been gaslit into fearing No Deal so much you're now willing to listen to what was, three years ago, the nightmare scenario. Classic Overton window shenanigans. This is not a compromise. Revoke.
    Well I'm in the very boat you describe (relief but prefer revoke). Although it's a harder brexit than I wanted it at least sets out a stable platform on which to build, and gradually soften our relationship over the years to come. The first whiff of chlorinated chicken will be a turning point for some, I predict.
    I find it astonishing that even now people are willing to blow up leaving with a deal amd continue the spiral of division and anger. It seems social media has produced a whole generation of people who are driven by hatred of the other side and extreme purism.
  • You think the opposition parties are going to be getting Brucie bonus from the voters for ever-delaying Brexit? Anybody that keeps this saga being retold over the campfire is going to be on the wrong end of a Beserker....

    They don't need to. Just a few weeks delay and Farage and the Spartans will do the rest. After all, no-one forced Boris to make a fetish out of an arbitrary date. He did it all by himself. He didn't even need to do so to get the leadership gig.
    One plausible scenario is that Boris brings back a deal, parliament rejects it and Boris gets an initial bounce but then all the details get scrutinised and the general reaction is "I can't believe he was going to sign us up for this".
    Very likely indeed.
  • isam said:

    GIN1138 said:
    Also an uptick in those thinking we were right to leave - and in the way Brexit is being handled.

    Have we seen peak LibDem?
    Apparently the poeple who were so angry about Brexit that the Lib Dems got 7% of the vote in 2017, despite being the only party to vote for if you wanted the decision reversed or the question asked again, are going to be even angrier next time
    There are people that, when the facts change, change their mind. Then there are the tunnel visioned fanatics and downright stupid who still believe in a fantasy world known as Brexit
    "You can't change the world
    But you can change the facts
    And when you change the facts
    You change points of view
    If you change points of view
    You may change a vote
    And when you change a vote
    You may change the world"

    - Depeche Mode, "New Dress", Black Celebration album, 1986
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,268
    148grss said:

    HYUFD said:

    148grss said:

    HYUFD said:

    148grss said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    nunuone said:

    Disagree.

    No matter what Clinton said it always had a feel of preparation, like nothing was off the cuff.

    Warren however to me seems more natural, and 100% more likeable. Will she win the electoral college? Who knows.
    Warren is a female John Kerry or Michael Dukakis to Hillary's Al Gore
    Are you capable of any comment on US presidential politics other than far fetched equivalencies ?
    I say what I have learnt from the last few decades of US presidential elections, if liberals on here don't like the findings tough
    LOL.
    I think people ignore that Warren used to be a Republican and probably voted for Reagan. She had a Damascus moment when she was han Clinton did.
    Not so sure, I think Warren could lose a few fiscal conservatives who voted for Hillary as they dislike Trump in areas like Orange County, California while failing to win working class Trump voters in the Midwest
    She can afford to lose fiscal conservatives in OC, or NY, or anywhere solidly blue. Any Dem will do better than pre Trump era in the suburbs; we've seen this in House races across multiple states. And I think Clinton was uniquely reviled by many voters, even historic Democratic voters. Warren is much more popular than Clinton, and will do better with working class whites than Clinton. Trump barely won the rust belt first time around, and he hasn't become any more popular.

    Trump 2016: Michigan, won by ~ 0.25%, Pennsylvannia, won by less than 1%, Wisconsin, won by less than 1%. If Warren loses no Clinton state, that is a Warren win.
    Latest Michigan poll including Warren Trump 42% Warren 41%, Biden 42% Trump 41%

    http://firehousestrategies.com/exclusive-survey-democrats-lead-trump-in-key-swing-states/
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/Michigan.html

    Average +4 for Warren in Michigan, +3.5 in Pennsylvania.

    In FLORIDA, Warren is winning or tying in current polling.

    This is all within margin of error, and with impeachment and Trumps approval, I can't imagine it will get better for Trump.
    That is no different to the average poll lead Hillary had in those states in 2016 and as I pointed out Firehouse Strategies has Trump beating Warren in Michigan
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    twitter.com/chrisgiles_/status/1182595006382645249?s=21

    All those remainers who are breathing a sigh of relief at a glimpse of ankle from yesterday's news, pay attention. This is hard Brexit. You've been gaslit into fearing No Deal so much you're now willing to listen to what was, three years ago, the nightmare scenario. Classic Overton window shenanigans. This is not a compromise. Revoke.
    I have no idea what an Overton is, but I am up for a darned good revocation! :D
    In case you're being serious about no knowing what the Overton window is:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overton_window
    Brexit is an all-time classic example.
    You learn something every day
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,268
    148grss said:

    HYUFD said:

    148grss said:

    HYUFD said:

    148grss said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Byronic said:


    That's just brilliant! :lol:
    Rather clever, but very polarising. On that brief glimpse, she's much less annoying than Hillary
    Is anyone polarisable not yet polarised ?

    Point is she would make Trump look the lumbering walrus-wit he is in any presidential debate.
    And she has the timing to deliver a punchline that Hillary never did.
    Hillary won all 3 post debate polls, she still lost the election as they made no difference to Trump's base in Midwestern swing states
    What base? The base that voted for Romney at almost exactly the same rate?

    Missing Obama voters is the key, not cracking the "always voted Republican all their life block" .
    Trump did better with working class voters and poor voters in the ot 31.6%.
    He did significantly worse with black and other ethnic minority voters. That’s why he is trying to suppress their vote in 2020.
    Wrong.

    Trump won 8% of the black vote, Romney only won 6% of the black vote.

    Trump also won 29% of the Hispanic vote, Romney only won 27% of the Hispanic vote.
    That will change. More people viewed Trump as a moderate in 2016, they don't any more.
    Blacks and Hispanics who ever vote Republican tend to be very socially conservative, not moderate
    He was viewed as economically moderate as well. He did basically say he'd be happy with nationalised healthcare, and wouldn't touch Social Security or Medicare, etc.
    And he hasn't changed those areas
    But he hasn't stopped GOP orthodoxy. Which has been very Ryanesque and unpopular, not Trumpy. Even Trump has admitted this, saying calling everything socialist won't work and saying it's hard to fight against "free stuff".

    Also, Trump said he'd raise taxes on the wealthy, now the wealthiest have a lower effective tax rate than ever.
    The poorest voters voted for Hillary over Trump anyway, it was middle income and rich voters who voted for Trump over Hillary
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Arndale evacuated, 4 people treated for stabbings according to sky
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2019
    Gabs2 said:

    Anorak said:

    Noo said:

    All those remainers who are breathing a sigh of relief at a glimpse of ankle from yesterday's news, pay attention. This is hard Brexit. You've been gaslit into fearing No Deal so much you're now willing to listen to what was, three years ago, the nightmare scenario. Classic Overton window shenanigans. This is not a compromise. Revoke.
    Well I'm in the very boat you describe (relief but prefer revoke). Although it's a harder brexit than I wanted it at least sets out a stable platform on which to build, and gradually soften our relationship over the years to come. The first whiff of chlorinated chicken will be a turning point for some, I predict.
    I find it astonishing that even now people are willing to blow up leaving with a deal amd continue the spiral of division and anger. It seems social media has produced a whole generation of people who are driven by hatred of the other side and extreme purism.
    People were pretending to be even minded about it all because they were sure Leave wouldn't win, then Boris wouldn't become PM, then if he did he wouldn't be able to get a deal, and finally, if he managed that, wouldn't be able to get it passed. As each obstacle falls, their anger is rising. You only have to look at the desperation in their posts on here
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    isam said:

    You think the opposition parties are going to be getting Brucie bonus from the voters for ever-delaying Brexit? Anybody that keeps this saga being retold over the campfire is going to be on the wrong end of a Beserker....

    They don't need to. Just a few weeks delay and Farage and the Spartans will do the rest. After all, no-one forced Boris to make a fetish out of an arbitrary date. He did it all by himself. He didn't even need to do so to get the leadership gig.
    What makes you so sure that Leave voters will be unwilling to forgive Boris for getting a deal done by Nov 31 or Dec 31? If he agrees one with the EU and parliament wont back it, and have made No deal illegal, I dont think it's he they will blame
    Nigel will and what Nigel says plenty of brain-dead leavers will follow.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited October 2019
    isam said:

    You think the opposition parties are going to be getting Brucie bonus from the voters for ever-delaying Brexit? Anybody that keeps this saga being retold over the campfire is going to be on the wrong end of a Beserker....

    They don't need to. Just a few weeks delay and Farage and the Spartans will do the rest. After all, no-one forced Boris to make a fetish out of an arbitrary date. He did it all by himself. He didn't even need to do so to get the leadership gig.
    What makes you so sure that Leave voters will be unwilling to forgive Boris for getting a deal done by Nov 31 or Dec 31? If he agrees one with the EU and parliament wont back it, and have made No deal illegal, I dont think it's he they will blame
    Experience. The way they turned against Theresa May was pretty dramatic, wasn't it? This is a group who won't take Yes for an answer, and have consistently accused everyone who's actually tried to do anything realistic of betrayal. Why would Boris be immune to this iron law?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,661
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:
    Also an uptick in those thinking we were right to leave - and in the way Brexit is being handled.

    Have we seen peak LibDem?
    If Boris pulls off a deal by 31st October the skies the limit. :)
    I think the BXP is now a repository for former Labour leave voters.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,268
    Anorak said:

    Chris said:

    ???????

    I was replying to your conclusion that the best position for the Tories was leaving by 31 October!

    Do you ever think about what you're writing?

    I made the conscious decision yesterday to skip over all posts from a certain poster. It's made PB a whole lot more enjoyable. Disagreements and alternative points of view are fine; non-sequiturs and endless dumb statements are not. Just sayin'.
    Enjoy your echo chamber!!
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,125
    HYUFD said:

    148grss said:

    HYUFD said:

    148grss said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    nunuone said:

    Disagree.

    No matter what Clinton said it always had a feel of preparation, like nothing was off the cuff.

    Warren however to me seems more natural, and 100% more likeable. Will she win the electoral college? Who knows.
    Warren is a female John Kerry or Michael Dukakis to Hillary's Al Gore
    Are you capable of any comment on US presidential politics other than far fetched equivalencies ?
    I say what I have learnt from the last few decades of US presidential elections, if liberals on here don't like the findings tough
    LOL.
    I think people ignore that Warren used to be a Republican and probably voted for Reagan. She had a Damascus moment when she was studying poverty and realised that government regulation can do good for people. She is good at explaining why the government should do things in a way GOP voters understand and like. She isn't Bernie or Biden, who have better support amongst working class white voters atm, but she will do better than Clinton did.
    Not so sure, I think Warren could lose a few fiscal conservatives who voted for Hillary as they dislike Trump in areas like Orange County, California while failing to win working class Trump voters in the Midwest
    She can afford to lose fiscal conservatives in OC, or NY, or anywhere solidly blue. Any Dem will do better than pre Trump era in the suburbs; we've seen this in House races across multiple states. And I think Clinton was uniquely reviled by many voters, even historic Democratic voters. Warren is much more popular than Clinton, and will do better with working class whites than Clinton. Trump barely won the rust belt first time around, and he hasn't become any more popular.

    Trump 2016: Michigan, won by ~ 0.25%, Pennsylvannia, won by less than 1%, Wisconsin, won by less than 1%. If Warren loses no Clinton state, that is a Warren win.
    Latest Michigan poll including Warren Trump 42% Warren 41%, Biden 42% Trump 41%

    http://firehousestrategies.com/exclusive-survey-democrats-lead-trump-in-key-swing-states/
    "latest Michigan poll including Warren".

    so just one poll. but if you trust in polls:

    The latest actual Michigan poll has Biden 19 ahead (Biden 54 Trump 35) so if Warren was still 2 behind, that would put her 17 ahead right?

    The latest Wisconsin poll has Warren 4 ahead, the latest Pennsylvania Warren 2 ahead.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,268
    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just for info the Telegraph say they have seen a poll conducted for the Tory Party presented at conference. Done by Comres, 2050 respondents.

    Summary figure at end is the + or - for a maj.

    Leave with deal after extension -14
    Leave with no deal after extension -18
    Revoking article 50 remain in EU Labour -39 short
    Leave with deal on 31st +118
    Leave no deal on 31st +114

    So Brexit Deal or No Deal on 31st October remains the best position for the Tories and if they revoke Corbyn likely becomes PM
    That indicates that leaving with No Deal rather than a deal would cost the Tories just two seats, whenever it happened. So there's a built-in assumption that No Deal, compared with a deal, will lead to no significant problems for the population by the time of the election.

    I don't think anyone could ask for a clearer demonstration of how meaningless voting intention polls are at the moment.
    Given No Deal would likely only occur after a Tory majority at a general election they are not meaningless
    ???????

    I was replying to your conclusion that the best position for the Tories was leaving by 31 October!

    Do you ever think about what you're writing?
    Leaving with a Deal by 31st October yes, avoiding further extension and No Deal
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    You think the opposition parties are going to be getting Brucie bonus from the voters for ever-delaying Brexit? Anybody that keeps this saga being retold over the campfire is going to be on the wrong end of a Beserker....

    They don't need to. Just a few weeks delay and Farage and the Spartans will do the rest. After all, no-one forced Boris to make a fetish out of an arbitrary date. He did it all by himself. He didn't even need to do so to get the leadership gig.
    What makes you so sure that Leave voters will be unwilling to forgive Boris for getting a deal done by Nov 31 or Dec 31? If he agrees one with the EU and parliament wont back it, and have made No deal illegal, I dont think it's he they will blame
    Experience. The way they turned against Theresa May was pretty dramatic, wasn't it? This is a group who won't take Yes for an answer, and have consistently accused everyone who's actually tried to do anything realistic of betrayal. Why would Boris be immune to this iron law?
    It's a fact of life that some people are immune to things that others succumb to. I think Boris has almost infinitely more benefit of the doubt than Theresa May had from Leave supporters, in no small part due to the fact he had a lot to do with the Leave win.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Arndale evacuated, 4 people treated for stabbings according to sky

    Manchester? Luton? Other?
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    twitter.com/chrisgiles_/status/1182595006382645249?s=21

    All those remainers who are breathing a sigh of relief at a glimpse of ankle from yesterday's news, pay attention. This is hard Brexit. You've been gaslit into fearing No Deal so much you're now willing to listen to what was, three years ago, the nightmare scenario. Classic Overton window shenanigans. This is not a compromise. Revoke.
    I have no idea what an Overton is, but I am up for a darned good revocation! :D
    In case you're being serious about no knowing what the Overton window is:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overton_window
    Brexit is an all-time classic example.
    Thanks. I had thought it was probably a football metaphor of some sort so I never bothered looking it up. You know what this place can be like for sporting references...
    Yeah, a few too many forced parallels between politics and sport.
    It's a really great concept, though, and explains a lot of what's gone on in recent years.
    Part of the reason I'm so... pugnacious... in my views is because I believe there's a weakness at the heart of British liberalism which oughtn't be there: we compromise with the illiberal far too readily. We're willing to accept illiberal outcomes to prevent horrifying fascist ones. I don't believe we should do that, not least because it's wrong per se, but also because anyone who hitches their wagon to the extremists is helping enable them. They are using the Overton window as a substitute to winning an argument. The weird confluence between "libertarians" and fascists is the nexus that worries me the most, because that's how the extremists got embedded into the Conservative party. The libertarians project stalled some time ago, so in recent years they've taken to surfing on a tide of vicious right wing wreckers who want to tear down the state (to replace it with something much more sinister). Some libertarians, bafflingly, think this is their route in, that they can somehow align to cause damage and then dealign and bring in their utopia.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2019
    isam said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Anorak said:

    Noo said:

    All those remainers who are breathing a sigh of relief at a glimpse of ankle from yesterday's news, pay attention. This is hard Brexit. You've been gaslit into fearing No Deal so much you're now willing to listen to what was, three years ago, the nightmare scenario. Classic Overton window shenanigans. This is not a compromise. Revoke.
    Well I'm in the very boat you describe (relief but prefer revoke). Although it's a harder brexit than I wanted it at least sets out a stable platform on which to build, and gradually soften our relationship over the years to come. The first whiff of chlorinated chicken will be a turning point for some, I predict.
    I find it astonishing that even now people are willing to blow up leaving with a deal amd continue the spiral of division and anger. It seems social media has produced a whole generation of people who are driven by hatred of the other side and extreme purism.
    People were pretending to be even minded about it all because they were sure Leave wouldn't win, then Boris wouldn't become PM, then if he did he wouldn't be able to get a deal, and finally, if he managed that, wouldn't be able to get it passed. As each obstacle falls, their anger is rising. You only have to look at the desperation in their posts on here
    The first two parts of that "Remainer firewall" were tipped not to happen on here at 1/4 and 1/5

    The third was dismissed as Johnson obviously doesn't want a deal, as we all know...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    You think the opposition parties are going to be getting Brucie bonus from the voters for ever-delaying Brexit? Anybody that keeps this saga being retold over the campfire is going to be on the wrong end of a Beserker....

    They don't need to. Just a few weeks delay and Farage and the Spartans will do the rest. After all, no-one forced Boris to make a fetish out of an arbitrary date. He did it all by himself. He didn't even need to do so to get the leadership gig.
    What makes you so sure that Leave voters will be unwilling to forgive Boris for getting a deal done by Nov 31 or Dec 31? If he agrees one with the EU and parliament wont back it, and have made No deal illegal, I dont think it's he they will blame
    Nigel will and what Nigel says plenty of brain-dead leavers will follow.
    There has been evidence recently to suggest that is not actually the case.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    philiph said:

    Arndale evacuated, 4 people treated for stabbings according to sky

    Manchester? Luton? Other?
    Manchester
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,854
    edited October 2019
    Pro_Rata said:
    Awful - there was a huge issue with group of youths gathering, the police had to break up a massive fight the other day.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798
    edited October 2019
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Many Leavers will hate this but some perhaps not. An interesting read anyway.

    https://twitter.com/OnaliEnrico/status/1182562838172315648?s=20

    Like so many Leavers, he'll be dead very soon, so who cares what he thinks. He's 87
    Such bitterness! One might think JLC had had a much more successful & illustrious career in the male modelling trade than yer guid self.
    I was clearly satirising Remainer attitudes to old people.

    That said there is a definite tiny subset of crotchety old writers who have been driven tonto by Brexit.

    Philip Pullman
    Ian McEwan
    Michael Morpurgo
    and now
    John Le Carre?

    Have all gone variously round the bend. There are probably others.
    Can I just ask that if you come across le Carré tootling down Truro high street, please don't gob on him, however satirically.
  • isam said:


    It's a fact of life that some people are immune to things that others succumb to. I think Boris has almost infinitely more benefit of the doubt than Theresa May had from Leave supporters, in no small part due to the fact he had a lot to do with the Leave win.

    Yes, for a bit. But then, the subsequent sense of betrayal will be even bigger.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:


    It's a fact of life that some people are immune to things that others succumb to. I think Boris has almost infinitely more benefit of the doubt than Theresa May had from Leave supporters, in no small part due to the fact he had a lot to do with the Leave win.

    Yes, for a bit. But then, the subsequent sense of betrayal will be even bigger.
    Well, let us see.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Pro_Rata said:
    Awful - there was a huge issue with group of youths gathering, the police had to break up a massive fight the other day.
    Sounds more like terror to me. There are reports of two attackers (tho there are always reports of two attackers, it's an oddity of human psychology)

    There's film of one attacker being tasered. Doesn't look like your average gang member. We shall see.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    isam said:

    You think the opposition parties are going to be getting Brucie bonus from the voters for ever-delaying Brexit? Anybody that keeps this saga being retold over the campfire is going to be on the wrong end of a Beserker....

    They don't need to. Just a few weeks delay and Farage and the Spartans will do the rest. After all, no-one forced Boris to make a fetish out of an arbitrary date. He did it all by himself. He didn't even need to do so to get the leadership gig.
    What makes you so sure that Leave voters will be unwilling to forgive Boris for getting a deal done by Nov 31 or Dec 31? If he agrees one with the EU and parliament wont back it, and have made No deal illegal, I dont think it's he they will blame
    Many won't forgive him for the deal itself
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    edited October 2019
    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    twitter.com/chrisgiles_/status/1182595006382645249?s=21

    All those remainers who are breathing a sigh of relief at a glimpse of ankle from yesterday's news, pay attention. This is hard Brexit. You've been gaslit into fearing No Deal so much you're now willing to listen to what was, three years ago, the nightmare scenario. Classic Overton window shenanigans. This is not a compromise. Revoke.
    I have no idea what an Overton is, but I am up for a darned good revocation! :D
    In case you're being serious about no knowing what the Overton window is:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overton_window
    Brexit is an all-time classic example.
    Thanks. I had thought it was probably a football metaphor of some sort so I never bothered looking it up. You know what this place can be like for sporting references...
    Yeah, a few too many forced parallels between politics and sport.
    It's a really great concept, though, and explains a lot of what's gone on in recent years.
    Part of the reason I'm so... pugnacious... in my views is because I believe there's a weakness at the heart of British liberalism which oughtn't be there: we compromise with the illiberal far too readily. We're willing to accept illiberal outcomes to prevent horrifying fascist ones. I don't believe we should do that, not least because it's wrong per se, but also because anyone who hitches their wagon to the extremists is helping enable them. They are using the Overton window as a substitute to winning an argument. The weird confluence between "libertarians" and fascists is the nexus that worries me the most, because that's how the extremists got embedded into the Conservative party. The libertarians project stalled some time ago, so in recent years they've taken to surfing on a tide of vicious right wing wreckers who want to tear down the state (to replace it with something much more sinister). Some libertarians, bafflingly, think this is their route in, that they can somehow align to cause damage and then dealign and bring in their utopia.
    :+1:

    Perhaps like younger women who think that their boyfriend is 80% perfect and they can make him change to enable that extra 20%?

    The truth, of course, is that such attempts are doomed to failure. If it quacks like a duck, and walks like a duck, it will never be a goose.

    All we can do about nationalism and fascism is keep calling it out. Those who follow it are unlikely to change, but perhaps we can prevent them from recruiting the next generation.

    It is one of the reasons I hope Brexit fails - so that its corpse can be picked apart and we can see how close we came to throwing away hard-won freedoms and rights.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Not sure about Nov 31, @isam
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    You think the opposition parties are going to be getting Brucie bonus from the voters for ever-delaying Brexit? Anybody that keeps this saga being retold over the campfire is going to be on the wrong end of a Beserker....

    They don't need to. Just a few weeks delay and Farage and the Spartans will do the rest. After all, no-one forced Boris to make a fetish out of an arbitrary date. He did it all by himself. He didn't even need to do so to get the leadership gig.
    What makes you so sure that Leave voters will be unwilling to forgive Boris for getting a deal done by Nov 31 or Dec 31? If he agrees one with the EU and parliament wont back it, and have made No deal illegal, I dont think it's he they will blame
    Many won't forgive him for the deal itself
    I think it is a gross misunderstanding of Leavers by Remainers that they actually want No Deal.

    Maybe the Tory Eurosceptics who have wanted to Leave since the 20th Century feel that way, but I would estimate the vast majority of Leave voters want a deal
  • 'UK government thinks this will end up making us ALL £2,250 A YEAR POORER'

    what happened to the tory hedge fund conspiracy winners?
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    isam said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Anorak said:

    Noo said:

    All those remainers who are breathing a sigh of relief at a glimpse of ankle from yesterday's news, pay attention. This is hard Brexit. You've been gaslit into fearing No Deal so much you're now willing to listen to what was, three years ago, the nightmare scenario. Classic Overton window shenanigans. This is not a compromise. Revoke.
    Well I'm in the very boat you describe (relief but prefer revoke). Although it's a harder brexit than I wanted it at least sets out a stable platform on which to build, and gradually soften our relationship over the years to come. The first whiff of chlorinated chicken will be a turning point for some, I predict.
    I find it astonishing that even now people are willing to blow up leaving with a deal amd continue the spiral of division and anger. It seems social media has produced a whole generation of people who are driven by hatred of the other side and extreme purism.
    People were pretending to be even minded about it all because they were sure Leave wouldn't win, then Boris wouldn't become PM, then if he did he wouldn't be able to get a deal, and finally, if he managed that, wouldn't be able to get it passed. As each obstacle falls, their anger is rising. You only have to look at the desperation in their posts on here
    A big part of maturity is the willingness to set aside your own ego about not getting what you wanted amd accepting the imperfect for the benefit of the group. I wanted Remain and we were defeated by the other side. Then I wanted super soft CU/SM Brexit and was defeated by our own side. Then I wanted May's deal and and was defeated by extremists on both sides.

    If this deal comes through, I beg MPs of all parties to put aside their own ego, partisanship and dislike of their opponents for the sake of setting this country on a path to reconciliation.
This discussion has been closed.