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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The mood changes on Brexit but the devil will be in the detail

SystemSystem Posts: 12,128
edited October 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The mood changes on Brexit but the devil will be in the detail?

Judging by today’s front pages the prospect for a deal on the UK’s withdrawal from the EU look better than ever. Certainly Johnson’s meeting with his Irish counterpart on the Wirral yesterday looks very promising but at the moment we do not know exactly what concessions have been made and whether that will be acceptable to the DUP.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,361
    Why the hell would the EU want a "confirmatory referendum"? If there's a deal, nail the bloody thing down in Westminster. The last thing the EU wants is a wholly unneccessary bit of extra democracy thrown into the mix. What if the orney voters nix the deal? Where are they then?

    Nah, if the Irish are happy with it, that should do the EU too. No futher extensions and put the MPs' feet to the fire. Make them do what they pledged to their voters they'd do - deliver Brexit.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    MarqueeMark said:

    Why the hell would the EU want a "confirmatory referendum"? If there's a deal, nail the bloody thing down in Westminster. The last thing the EU wants is a wholly unneccessary bit of extra democracy thrown into the mix. What if the orney voters nix the deal? Where are they then?

    Nah, if the Irish are happy with it, that should do the EU too. No futher extensions and put the MPs' feet to the fire. Make them do what they pledged to their voters they'd do - deliver Brexit.

    So you are against democracy
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    MarqueeMark said:

    Why the hell would the EU want a "confirmatory referendum"? If there's a deal, nail the bloody thing down in Westminster. The last thing the EU wants is a wholly unneccessary bit of extra democracy thrown into the mix. What if the orney voters nix the deal? Where are they then?

    Nah, if the Irish are happy with it, that should do the EU too. No futher extensions and put the MPs' feet to the fire. Make them do what they pledged to their voters they'd do - deliver Brexit.

    Because what the EU wants more than a deal is the UK remaining ion the EU.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,707
    MarqueeMark said:

    Why the hell would the EU want a "confirmatory referendum"? If there's a deal, nail the bloody thing down in Westminster. The last thing the EU wants is a wholly unneccessary bit of extra democracy thrown into the mix. What if the orney voters nix the deal? Where are they then?

    Nah, if the Irish are happy with it, that should do the EU too. No futher extensions and put the MPs' feet to the fire. Make them do what they pledged to their voters they'd do - deliver Brexit.

    The EU will be happy leaving that up to Britain. They generally think Brexit is a dumb idea and would rather the British reconsidered but they could live with a reasonable deal. If the British ask for an extension to do that then they'll get it. But they're certainly not going to start playing dangerous games of chicken that might result in No Deal, which is by far the dumbest of outcomes.

    The issue here is how you get it through parliament. If the Tories and the DUP are solid they should easily be able to get enough ex-Cons and Lab leavers to pass what they want as is, but if not they'll need to compromise, and only known way to get a majority in those circumstances is to whip for a confirmatory referendum.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    MarqueeMark said:

    Why the hell would the EU want a "confirmatory referendum"? If there's a deal, nail the bloody thing down in Westminster. The last thing the EU wants is a wholly unneccessary bit of extra democracy thrown into the mix. What if the orney voters nix the deal? Where are they then?

    Nah, if the Irish are happy with it, that should do the EU too. No futher extensions and put the MPs' feet to the fire. Make them do what they pledged to their voters they'd do - deliver Brexit.

    If you are changing the relationship of part of the UK with the rest of the UK then you need a referendum for that change. And that change does need to be confirmed by the public in the way a border poll would work.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    If there is a deal, is there even the votes in Parliament to tack on a confirmatory referendum if anyone did actually want it? Can't see it. The current voting bloc of anti-no-deal MPs will begin to break up.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    MarqueeMark said:

    Why the hell would the EU want a "confirmatory referendum"? If there's a deal, nail the bloody thing down in Westminster. The last thing the EU wants is a wholly unneccessary bit of extra democracy thrown into the mix. What if the orney voters nix the deal? Where are they then?

    Nah, if the Irish are happy with it, that should do the EU too. No futher extensions and put the MPs' feet to the fire. Make them do what they pledged to their voters they'd do - deliver Brexit.

    My assumption is the Tories would take an election over a referendum, if they ended up in a similar stuck place after an election then they might go for it.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,707
    edited October 2019
    solarflare said:

    If there is a deal, is there even the votes in Parliament to tack on a confirmatory referendum if anyone did actually want it? Can't see it. The current voting bloc of anti-no-deal MPs will begin to break up.

    It depends how Corbyn goes. If he and Boris both whip for it then it should pass easily. The hitch is that, it's like voting for an election: Those two are mostly in a zero-sum relationship with each other, so Corbyn won't do it if it's good for Boris, and Boris obviously won't do it if it's *bad* for Boris.

    I Deal+Referendum is much easier for a GNU to pass than the Tories: Labour would be pretty solid if Corbyn whipped for it, and they'd also get LD and Nat and most of the ex-Cons which should get them over the edge on its own, added to which they'd get a few moderate Cons too.
  • Yellow_SubmarineYellow_Submarine Posts: 647
    All informed journalist opinion agrees something big shifted yesterday. The Irish are publicly very chipper about it. There is complete Radio silence from the British end. We know Barnier/Barclay talks sre scheduled this morning to decide whether to go into tge tunnell or not. Arlene Foster's sporting tweet may have been entirely innocent or very obviously coded. We also know this wasn't spontanious as Diwning Street have been hawking a letter of support round Business for day's in advance.

    So what can we deduce ? 1. Boris has made his big move 2. It's not implausible enough to have been instantly blown up. 2. It's implausible enough to have triggered 12 + hours of behind the scenes British hagling.

    What does it look like ? We don't know but hidden in plain sight is Boris is hardening the future relationship to buy ERG support but softening the NI arrangements to buy EU support. Which leaves us with how far under the bus the DUP are prepared to be thrown. And hiw repelled Labour MPs are by the hardness of the PD compared to May's.

    We talk of three dimensional Chess but this is three dimensional tight rope walking where you can fall up as well as down. Everything in the current House of Commons that buts extra support repels someone else. But it's slso Chemistry as well as Physics.

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    MikeSmithson said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Why the hell would the EU want a "confirmatory referendum"? If there's a deal, nail the bloody thing down in Westminster. The last thing the EU wants is a wholly unneccessary bit of extra democracy thrown into the mix. What if the orney voters nix the deal? Where are they then?

    Nah, if the Irish are happy with it, that should do the EU too. No futher extensions and put the MPs' feet to the fire. Make them do what they pledged to their voters they'd do - deliver Brexit.

    So you are against democracy
    Being against direct democracy and being against democracy are two different things. Additionally, from a Leave perspective being pro 2016 referendums is like being pro motherhood and apple pie, but being pro 2019 or later referendums is like being pro necrophilia and kitten torture.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited October 2019
    MarqueeMark said:

    Why the hell a "confirmatory referendum"?

    If Johnson and the EU get a deal together then there will have to be a confirmatory referendum. Too much water has flown under the bridge since 2016 and the ONLY way to get closure on Brexit will be a People's Vote framed as Deal vs Remain.

    It's curious, most curious, that those now opposed to a confirmatory referendum are the ones who incessantly bleat on and on about respecting democracy. If it wasn't all so disastrous for the state of this country it might be funny.

    Confirmatory referendum will settle it. We can decide if we want to leave on the agreed terms, or remain.

    Theo Paphitis, who is a Leaver, explains this for the benefit of the likes of MM and the other anti-democratic headbangers on here:

    https://twitter.com/RemainerNow/status/1182421985730682880?s=20

  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Confirmatory referendum, sure, but what the question?

    Deal / Remain or Deal / No Deal ?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,214
    Unclear why Boris would agree to Ref 2. He'd have a leadership challenge on his hands.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited October 2019
    p.s. obviously as well all know only too well, the real reason the headbangers are latching like limpets to the 2016 vote is that they've a very good idea they'll lose another one.

    Brexit was a stupid idea. Can it. But either way, the people need to decide on the t&c's of a deal. And if the people do decide to accept the deal, then as Theo Paphitis says, we leave the next day.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    rkrkrk said:

    Unclear why Boris would agree to Ref 2. He'd have a leadership challenge on his hands.

    He'll hate it but he won't be given the choice.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited October 2019
    asjohnstone said:

    Confirmatory referendum, sure, but what the question?

    Deal / Remain or Deal / No Deal ?


    Deal vs Remain

    I've thought about this a lot and you cannot offer to the people something so manifestly disastrous as No Deal. Leave that to the headbangers in the BXP who either don't care about stuffing up the country or who are too ignorant to realise it.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    We are a representative democracy. As we have seen, introducing direct democracy sets up a potentially disastrous conflict with the executive and, furthermore, would inflame an already combustible situation in the country.

    If there is a new proposal and it can pass here and in the EU then fine. I have my doubts, given the silence from our representatives in this but, as we all have, I’ve been wrong before. Let’s see what develops - I wouldn’t put it past Johnson that he told Varadkar any old bollocks just to make him more liked.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    Will be interesting to see what happens and emerges but we know the following when it comes to border checks and so forth:

    1) Leo Varadkar really cares about this stuff; and
    2) Boris Johnson doesn't care at all about this stuff.
  • Yellow_SubmarineYellow_Submarine Posts: 647
    Will the Rebel Alliance want Boris' Deal passed before the impending GE ? Pros: It takes the issue off the table, triggers Remainer anger and opens up the Cheer Churchill, Vote Labour strategy. Cons: It will trigger Remainer betrayal narratives, dampen Remainer counter mobilisation, breach Labour's new policy position and hand Boris a huge win.

    Possible compromises. 1. Rally behind Kyle/Wilson 2. Pass the deal but slowly forcing Boris to breach the 31/10 deadline.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,707
    rkrkrk said:

    Unclear why Boris would agree to Ref 2. He'd have a leadership challenge on his hands.

    Presumably the headbangers will vote against his deal so he could remove the whip from them before they challenge him...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,361
    MikeSmithson said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Why the hell would the EU want a "confirmatory referendum"? If there's a deal, nail the bloody thing down in Westminster. The last thing the EU wants is a wholly unneccessary bit of extra democracy thrown into the mix. What if the orney voters nix the deal? Where are they then?

    Nah, if the Irish are happy with it, that should do the EU too. No futher extensions and put the MPs' feet to the fire. Make them do what they pledged to their voters they'd do - deliver Brexit.

    So you are against democracy
    I was happy to have the democracy of the original referendum.

    So you are against our MPs implementing democracy?
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Mysticrose said:

    asjohnstone said:

    Confirmatory referendum, sure, but what the question?

    Deal / Remain or Deal / No Deal ?


    Deal vs Remain

    I've thought about this a lot and you cannot offer to the people something so manifestly disastrous as No Deal. Leave that to the headbangers in the BXP who either don't care about stuffing up the country or who are too ignorant to realise it.
    That'd lead to a BXP / ERG boycott; potentially leading to a remain win on a vastly lower turn out than the last time ? Also rips the Tory party to shreds.

    Better to just deal, vote it through the HoC and frame any further discussions on the topic as headbangers from either side.
  • Yellow_SubmarineYellow_Submarine Posts: 647
    Will Boris want his deal passed before the GE ? Pros: Settles the issue, big win. Cons: Delays the election, opens up the Cheer Churchill, Vote Labour senario, denies him the mobilising effect of a Brexit election, implements the final split in the Tory Party just before the election.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The silence from Downing Street, normally so noisy, is the main focus of my attention just now. It doesn’t have a line to take yet because it doesn’t know who it is taking on yet. The vacuum has been filled by the Irish perspective on the discussions.

    When Boris Johnson or Dominic Cummings eventually break cover, we will know much more.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,465
    asjohnstone said:

    Confirmatory referendum, sure, but what the question?

    Deal / Remain or Deal / No Deal ?

    Deal/Extend

    and keep repeating until some Deal passes.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Let's back up. The original Johnson proposal was to ditch the whole UK customs union part of the May Deal that obviated the need for an Irish Sea customs border. If we assume for now that Johnson and maybe the DUP have conceded on a NI only Soft Brexit, it still means effectively No Deal covering the rest of the UK.

    Johnson's intention was that this is hammered out in a Canada style FTA over a few months transition. This kind of FTA, including the Canada one, takes a decade to agree, if it ever reaches agreement at all. The only possible quick deals I think are:

    1. Minimal change (Vassal State)
    2. Minimal agreement (equivalent to No Deal)
    3. Concede on every counterparty demand

    Although people are desperate for resolution, I suspect this won't look like it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Mark, the EU might want a referendum because it resolves matters one way or another.

    Leaving it to Parliament greatly enhances the chances of things returning to endless procrastination.
  • Yellow_SubmarineYellow_Submarine Posts: 647
    Will the swing votes, the ERG, DUP and Kinnockites, want the deal passed before the election ? That depends what the deal is. AreAthey getting what they want ? But they are only the swing votes in a hung Parliament. An election may end their swing vote role and you have to ask if the DUP and Kinnockites are any longer enjoying the responsibility.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    @Morris_Dancer please note that should Sunday qualifying get cancelled, but the race goes ahead, Bottas may well be on pole, having led FP2.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    Mysticrose said:

    p.s. obviously as well all know only too well, the real reason the headbangers are latching like limpets to the 2016 vote is that they've a very good idea they'll lose another one.

    Brexit was a stupid idea. Can it. But either way, the people need to decide on the t&c's of a deal. And if the people do decide to accept the deal, then as Theo Paphitis says, we leave the next day.

    A referendum is high risk for both sides, and I could easily see the Leave side winning it. There is far bigger movement potential than either side think, who assuming they’re both gaming a narrow margin of +/- 5% around the middle either way with two solid blocks.

    The problem would be that Farage/Banks would almost certainly campaign against it/boycott it regardless so Boris would need all the moderate Leave vote with him (35-40%), narrow the extreme Leave <10% and then win over at least a quarter of previous Remainers (12-15%+) on a democratic “respect the vote” platform. Votes for 16 year olds and votes for EU citizens the other way probably won’t be decisive.

    Do’able, but high stakes.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    What is really clear this morning is the total panic in remainers ...
    This surely cant be happening....
    Can it?
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Yellow_Submarine said:

    Will the Rebel Alliance want Boris' Deal passed before the impending GE ? Pros: It takes the issue off the table, triggers Remainer anger and opens up the Cheer Churchill, Vote Labour strategy. Cons: It will trigger Remainer betrayal narratives, dampen Remainer counter mobilisation, breach Labour's new policy position and hand Boris a huge win.

    Possible compromises. 1. Rally behind Kyle/Wilson 2. Pass the deal but slowly forcing Boris to breach the 31/10 deadline.

    With a deal passed by HOC the “rebel alliance” will dissolve like aspirin. I don’t quite see why you see this as an on-going political alliance designed to thwart the conservatives and Boris in particular. It isn’t.

    It’s there to prevent “no deal”. With no deal prevented by having a deal I’m afraid it’s back to fighting like ferrets in a sack over normal business.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    In other Japanese news, their chemistry Nobel laureate was originally inspired by reading Michael Faraday’s popular science book from 1848...
    http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201910100070.html
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    Slight whiff of panic on the part of remainers this morning. The inevitability of failure has been shaken. But there’s a long way to go and what is still a remainer dominated HoC to negotiate. I suspect that is the source of Boris’ silence. Anything bombastic will inevitably stir up opposition from one band of nutters or the other and he needs all hands on deck.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    AlastairMeeks said:

    The silence from Downing Street, normally so noisy, is the main focus of my attention just now. It doesn’t have a line to take yet because it doesn’t know who it is taking on yet. The vacuum has been filled by the Irish perspective on the discussions.

    When Boris Johnson or Dominic Cummings eventually break cover, we will know much more.

    What would the point of the spin be ?

    All noise from no 10 is for a reason - even if it is sometimes just to troll remainers.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    edited October 2019
    asjohnstone said:

    Mysticrose said:

    asjohnstone said:

    Confirmatory referendum, sure, but what the question?

    Deal / Remain or Deal / No Deal ?


    Deal vs Remain

    I've thought about this a lot and you cannot offer to the people something so manifestly disastrous as No Deal. Leave that to the headbangers in the BXP who either don't care about stuffing up the country or who are too ignorant to realise it.
    That'd lead to a BXP / ERG boycott; potentially leading to a remain win on a vastly lower turn out than the last time ? Also rips the Tory party to shreds.

    Better to just deal, vote it through the HoC and frame any further discussions on the topic as headbangers from either side.
    I agree. With No Deal polling up to 40% = depending on which poll and what circumstances = a decision by politicians to strike it off the ballot would destroy the legitimacy of the referendum. There would be no closure - only a compromise deal will achieve that.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    Yellow_Submarine said:

    Will Boris want his deal passed before the GE ? Pros: Settles the issue, big win. Cons: Delays the election, opens up the Cheer Churchill, Vote Labour senario, denies him the mobilising effect of a Brexit election, implements the final split in the Tory Party just before the election.

    And Farage will take the leave vote by shouting "It's not Brexity enough"
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    AlastairMeeks said:

    The silence from Downing Street, normally so noisy, is the main focus of my attention just now. It doesn’t have a line to take yet because it doesn’t know who it is taking on yet. The vacuum has been filled by the Irish perspective on the discussions.

    When Boris Johnson or Dominic Cummings eventually break cover, we will know much more.

    Reality has finally dawned on them - leaving with any deal is so difficult May pulled off a miracle with her deal.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    DavidL said:

    Slight whiff of panic on the part of remainers this morning. The inevitability of failure has been shaken. But there’s a long way to go and what is still a remainer dominated HoC to negotiate. I suspect that is the source of Boris’ silence. Anything bombastic will inevitably stir up opposition from one band of nutters or the other and he needs all hands on deck.

    I suspect the problem is at the ERG/DUP end. If he gets this wrong, there may be defections to the Brexit party. The noises overnight from the DUP do not suggest much flexibility there and there are quite a few Conservative MPs who will take their cue from them.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    AlastairMeeks said:

    DavidL said:

    Slight whiff of panic on the part of remainers this morning. The inevitability of failure has been shaken. But there’s a long way to go and what is still a remainer dominated HoC to negotiate. I suspect that is the source of Boris’ silence. Anything bombastic will inevitably stir up opposition from one band of nutters or the other and he needs all hands on deck.

    I suspect the problem is at the ERG/DUP end. If he gets this wrong, there may be defections to the Brexit party. The noises overnight from the DUP do not suggest much flexibility there and there are quite a few Conservative MPs who will take their cue from them.
    ....he says hopefully while keeping everything crossed and clutching his lucky gonk. 😉
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    rkrkrk said:

    Unclear why Boris would agree to Ref 2. He'd have a leadership challenge on his hands.

    Exactly as happened to May.

    I have no idea if the ERG will decide to cash in their chips and vote for the Johnson Deal (assuming the details are finalised with the EU). Some of them may still believe that they can win a general election on No Deal and therefore vote against.

    However, if they all vote with Johnson I think he will have the numbers.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    ozymandias said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    DavidL said:

    Slight whiff of panic on the part of remainers this morning. The inevitability of failure has been shaken. But there’s a long way to go and what is still a remainer dominated HoC to negotiate. I suspect that is the source of Boris’ silence. Anything bombastic will inevitably stir up opposition from one band of nutters or the other and he needs all hands on deck.

    I suspect the problem is at the ERG/DUP end. If he gets this wrong, there may be defections to the Brexit party. The noises overnight from the DUP do not suggest much flexibility there and there are quite a few Conservative MPs who will take their cue from them.
    ....he says hopefully while keeping everything crossed and clutching his lucky gonk. 😉
    I’d much prefer a workable deal. It will be dismal but it is less bad than further political centrifuge at this point.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,255
    edited October 2019
    timmo said:

    What is really clear this morning is the total panic in remainers ...
    This surely cant be happening....
    Can it?

    There's much that can go wrong your side.

    Remember, many Remainers, both on here and in parliament, are also / have also been pro-delivery of Brexit in line with the referendum. I cheered at the Draft Understanding, at May's deal, declared them a triumph, and still believe they sewed the eye of the needle very well on the negotiation track. I suspect Boris's new way has multiple fracture points and it looks bad to me, but let's have some details emerge first.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Mr. B, thanks, I appreciate knowing that :)
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    AlastairMeeks said:

    ozymandias said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    DavidL said:

    Slight whiff of panic on the part of remainers this morning. The inevitability of failure has been shaken. But there’s a long way to go and what is still a remainer dominated HoC to negotiate. I suspect that is the source of Boris’ silence. Anything bombastic will inevitably stir up opposition from one band of nutters or the other and he needs all hands on deck.

    I suspect the problem is at the ERG/DUP end. If he gets this wrong, there may be defections to the Brexit party. The noises overnight from the DUP do not suggest much flexibility there and there are quite a few Conservative MPs who will take their cue from them.
    ....he says hopefully while keeping everything crossed and clutching his lucky gonk. 😉
    I’d much prefer a workable deal. It will be dismal but it is less bad than further political centrifuge at this point.
    Most people just want a deal...any deal. They (inc me) are sick of hearing about Brexit. That it has gone on for three yrs with no agreement says a lot about our politicians.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    AlastairMeeks said:

    ozymandias said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    DavidL said:

    Slight whiff of panic on the part of remainers this morning. The inevitability of failure has been shaken. But there’s a long way to go and what is still a remainer dominated HoC to negotiate. I suspect that is the source of Boris’ silence. Anything bombastic will inevitably stir up opposition from one band of nutters or the other and he needs all hands on deck.

    I suspect the problem is at the ERG/DUP end. If he gets this wrong, there may be defections to the Brexit party. The noises overnight from the DUP do not suggest much flexibility there and there are quite a few Conservative MPs who will take their cue from them.
    ....he says hopefully while keeping everything crossed and clutching his lucky gonk. 😉
    I’d much prefer a workable deal. It will be dismal but it is less bad than further political centrifuge at this point.
    Well any deal is a transition. It’s not the final destination.

    If there is a new agreement with the EU and it’s relatively palatable then a lot of soul searching has to happen in the extreme elements of this rebel alliance.

    They’re there to prevent no deal. We ll have a deal. If they continue to frustrate and obstruct then it’ll devolve into simple party politics and it’ll lose any claims to virtue it may have had.

    The ERG aren’t the ones calling for a deal, so can legitimately reject it (from their perspective). However most are realistic enough to appreciate no deal is exceedingly unlikely and maybe swallow it.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,364
    Mr Meeks,

    "I’d much prefer a workable deal."

    I think you'd prefer to Remain, but I accept you'd prefer a deal to no-deal.

    All I'd like to know is when do we stop paying the £10 billion or so annually. A comprehensive trade deal is an obvious advantage to all, but it's the gradual political union that makes me vote Leave. It is not an essential add-on, it is a political aim that is added.

    Mutual co-operation between countries can have a cost, but a pick and mix which retains sovereignty would be my ideal.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,593
    Any deal will involve the UK moving towards the EU position. That is inevitable. However, anything that Johnson brings back will need to be considered carefully by the loons. There is no new knight of Brexit ready to ride to their rescue. Johnson is their last hope. If they destroy him as they destroyed May then they will destroy what it is they claim they want. So I think most will vote for any Deal he presents. I also think the Kinnock Labour MPs will, too. It will therefore pass - just. The key battle now is the final deal we get post-transition.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283
    PeterC said:

    asjohnstone said:

    Mysticrose said:

    asjohnstone said:

    Confirmatory referendum, sure, but what the question?

    Deal / Remain or Deal / No Deal ?


    Deal vs Remain

    I've thought about this a lot and you cannot offer to the people something so manifestly disastrous as No Deal. Leave that to the headbangers in the BXP who either don't care about stuffing up the country or who are too ignorant to realise it.
    That'd lead to a BXP / ERG boycott; potentially leading to a remain win on a vastly lower turn out than the last time ? Also rips the Tory party to shreds.

    Better to just deal, vote it through the HoC and frame any further discussions on the topic as headbangers from either side.
    I agree. With No Deal polling up to 40% = depending on which poll and what circumstances = a decision by politicians to strike it off the ballot would destroy the legitimacy of the referendum. There would be no closure - only a compromise deal will achieve that.
    no-deal" is actually a fantasy position. There will have to be deals, lots and lots of them, after the crash out and all of which will be deleterious to Britain's interest because we will be in a position of weakness. The fact that some people are dumb enough to think this might be a good idea is not a reason for any government to put it on a ballot paper, though it does suggest a better education system is needed.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    timmo said:

    What is really clear this morning is the total panic in remainers ...
    This surely cant be happening....
    Can it?

    I'm a Remainer. If there's a general election before Brexit I will vote for Revoke.

    This morning I am cautiously optimistic and slightly relieved.

    What's this panic you speak of?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    CD13 said:

    Mr Meeks,

    "I’d much prefer a workable deal."

    I think you'd prefer to Remain.

    At this point every outcome is awful. The whole thing is a disaster and it's only going to get worse. A workable deal will at least slow the rate of decline.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,364
    As an aside …. back in Jezza's world, the negotiations are a distraction from proper politics. The last thing he wants is BoJo getting any credit and he will therefore whip his party to oppose any deal.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    OblitusSumMe said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Unclear why Boris would agree to Ref 2. He'd have a leadership challenge on his hands.

    Exactly as happened to May.

    I have no idea if the ERG will decide to cash in their chips and vote for the Johnson Deal (assuming the details are finalised with the EU). Some of them may still believe that they can win a general election on No Deal and therefore vote against.

    However, if they all vote with Johnson I think he will have the numbers.
    If it gets as far as a vote then ERG will be told vote for it or lose whip and your jobs, which for most of them is the best job they will ever get. It will also allow many of the other Tory rebels back in the fold. Anyone know how many constituencies have adopted new candidates? Lots of ifs but it looks a neat solution for them.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On topic, the much-trumpeted Jeremy Corbyn speech turned out not to be as billed:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/10/jeremy-corbyn-refuses-commit-immediate-election-boris-johnson/
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283
    OblitusSumMe said:

    timmo said:

    What is really clear this morning is the total panic in remainers ...
    This surely cant be happening....
    Can it?

    I'm a Remainer. If there's a general election before Brexit I will vote for Revoke.

    This morning I am cautiously optimistic and slightly relieved.

    What's this panic you speak of?
    I feel a cautious optimism, but we have to remember it is Boris Johnson who is PM; a man unprecedentedly unsuited to the position with as much experience of negotiation as my pet cat. Still if he does pull it off, we should be grateful to anyone that has had a part in it, and particularly those that voted for the Benn act, that far from tying his hands actually made him push harder for a deal.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283
    nichomar said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Unclear why Boris would agree to Ref 2. He'd have a leadership challenge on his hands.

    Exactly as happened to May.

    I have no idea if the ERG will decide to cash in their chips and vote for the Johnson Deal (assuming the details are finalised with the EU). Some of them may still believe that they can win a general election on No Deal and therefore vote against.

    However, if they all vote with Johnson I think he will have the numbers.
    If it gets as far as a vote then ERG will be told vote for it or lose whip and your jobs, which for most of them is the best job they will ever get. It will also allow many of the other Tory rebels back in the fold. Anyone know how many constituencies have adopted new candidates? Lots of ifs but it looks a neat solution for them.
    A good point. The precedent has been set, follow the line or be deselected. Sauce for the goose and all that. Anyone got a nice well paid job for Mark Francois? Or perhaps he is so popular he might stand as an independent?
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    CD13 said:

    As an aside …. back in Jezza's world, the negotiations are a distraction from proper politics. The last thing he wants is BoJo getting any credit and he will therefore whip his party to oppose any deal.

    True. Depends on if they’ll listen to him though. I’m sure many Labour MPs have an eye on the post Brexit, post-Corbyn world.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    What did we do to deserve to live in this worst possible timeline:

    https://twitter.com/TheViewFromLL2/status/1182450534004989952
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283
    SouthamObserver said:

    Any deal will involve the UK moving towards the EU position. That is inevitable. However, anything that Johnson brings back will need to be considered carefully by the loons. There is no new knight of Brexit ready to ride to their rescue. Johnson is their last hope. If they destroy him as they destroyed May then they will destroy what it is they claim they want. So I think most will vote for any Deal he presents. I also think the Kinnock Labour MPs will, too. It will therefore pass - just. The key battle now is the final deal we get post-transition.

    Absolutely. Most of the loons think this will mean Brexit has been done. It is only the beginning of the self harm process that has been completed, but at least it would be better than a crash out, assuming it happens.
  • TheKitchenCabinetTheKitchenCabinet Posts: 2,275
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    timmo said:

    What is really clear this morning is the total panic in remainers ...
    This surely cant be happening....
    Can it?

    I'm a Remainer. If there's a general election before Brexit I will vote for Revoke.

    This morning I am cautiously optimistic and slightly relieved.

    What's this panic you speak of?
    I feel a cautious optimism, but we have to remember it is Boris Johnson who is PM; a man unprecedentedly unsuited to the position with as much experience of negotiation as my pet cat. Still if he does pull it off, we should be grateful to anyone that has had a part in it, and particularly those that voted for the Benn act, that far from tying his hands actually made him push harder for a deal.
    The thing is that the threat of No Deal is now starting to have direct political consequences for Varadkar. In the €1.2bn set aside by Ireland, an extra €100m is for extra unemployment benefits with no deal. Doesn't sound much in absolute terms, adjust for Ireland's population, and that is a big deal and implies the government is expecting a significant spike in unemployment in its event. Given Varadkar has based his whole approach on the man who can beat the Brits, that might not end too well for him (especially given Enda Kelly had a more constructive approach).
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Still if he does pull it off, we should be grateful to anyone that has had a part in it, and particularly those that voted for the Benn act, that far from tying his hands actually made him push harder for a deal.

    Yeah, that seems not to be noticed by the headbangers but it seems pretty unarguable on the turn of events.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283
    CD13 said:

    As an aside …. back in Jezza's world, the negotiations are a distraction from proper politics. The last thing he wants is BoJo getting any credit and he will therefore whip his party to oppose any deal.

    I loath Corbyn, but this is party politics, and no-one can claim that Brexit is in the national interest anymore, or has been done with cross party support. It has been a balls up form beginning to end. Anyone who would expect any LoTO, let alone someone as tribal as Corbyn to support this would be naïve in the extreme.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MikeSmithson said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Why the hell would the EU want a "confirmatory referendum"? If there's a deal, nail the bloody thing down in Westminster. The last thing the EU wants is a wholly unneccessary bit of extra democracy thrown into the mix. What if the orney voters nix the deal? Where are they then?

    Nah, if the Irish are happy with it, that should do the EU too. No futher extensions and put the MPs' feet to the fire. Make them do what they pledged to their voters they'd do - deliver Brexit.

    So you are against democracy
    Referendums are for “in principle” decisions

    Details legislation is for Parliament

    Treaties are for the executive subject to parliamentary oversight
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    TheKitchenCabinet said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    timmo said:

    What is really clear this morning is the total panic in remainers ...
    This surely cant be happening....
    Can it?

    I'm a Remainer. If there's a general election before Brexit I will vote for Revoke.

    This morning I am cautiously optimistic and slightly relieved.

    What's this panic you speak of?
    I feel a cautious optimism, but we have to remember it is Boris Johnson who is PM; a man unprecedentedly unsuited to the position with as much experience of negotiation as my pet cat. Still if he does pull it off, we should be grateful to anyone that has had a part in it, and particularly those that voted for the Benn act, that far from tying his hands actually made him push harder for a deal.
    The thing is that the threat of No Deal is now starting to have direct political consequences for Varadkar. In the €1.2bn set aside by Ireland, an extra €100m is for extra unemployment benefits with no deal. Doesn't sound much in absolute terms, adjust for Ireland's population, and that is a big deal and implies the government is expecting a significant spike in unemployment in its event. Given Varadkar has based his whole approach on the man who can beat the Brits, that might not end too well for him (especially given Enda Kelly had a more constructive approach).
    Wait a minute. Just a couple of days ago Leavers were blaming quisling Remainers for sabotaging the talks by taking No Deal off the table.

    Maybe the lack of No Deal has forced Johnson to find a deal? He is perhaps less willing to resign to avoid asking for an extension than HYUFD has suggested.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,214
    AlastairMeeks said:

    On topic, the much-trumpeted Jeremy Corbyn speech turned out not to be as billed:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/10/jeremy-corbyn-refuses-commit-immediate-election-boris-johnson/

    Can't read past the paywall (and I'd note the telegraph is not a good source regarding Corbyn), but I think he was pretty clear:
    "So it's simple: obey the law, take no-deal off the table and then let's have the election.""
    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49998384

    Whether you win your bet or not, I don't know.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283
    Charles said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Why the hell would the EU want a "confirmatory referendum"? If there's a deal, nail the bloody thing down in Westminster. The last thing the EU wants is a wholly unneccessary bit of extra democracy thrown into the mix. What if the orney voters nix the deal? Where are they then?

    Nah, if the Irish are happy with it, that should do the EU too. No futher extensions and put the MPs' feet to the fire. Make them do what they pledged to their voters they'd do - deliver Brexit.

    So you are against democracy
    Referendums are for “in principle” decisions

    Details legislation is for Parliament

    Treaties are for the executive subject to parliamentary oversight
    So speaks the constitutional expert. My understanding was that constitutional experts are uncertain of the constitutional status of referenda as we do not have it as a mainstream part of our unwritten constitution. Still it is good that you are one of the few leavers I have heard recognise that the referendum was purely advisory, which of course it was, and badly drafted at that.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Still if he does pull it off, we should be grateful to anyone that has had a part in it, and particularly those that voted for the Benn act, that far from tying his hands actually made him push harder for a deal.

    Yeah, that seems not to be noticed by the headbangers but it seems pretty unarguable on the turn of events.
    Not quite true. We have no idea of how the actual and real threat of no deal would have had on both the UK and the EU negotiations to this point in time.

    With all due respect you’re not a dispassionate observer.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,707
    SouthamObserver said:

    Any deal will involve the UK moving towards the EU position. That is inevitable. However, anything that Johnson brings back will need to be considered carefully by the loons. There is no new knight of Brexit ready to ride to their rescue. Johnson is their last hope. If they destroy him as they destroyed May then they will destroy what it is they claim they want. So I think most will vote for any Deal he presents. I also think the Kinnock Labour MPs will, too. It will therefore pass - just. The key battle now is the final deal we get post-transition.

    I dunno though, aren't they pretty close to getting their Plan A? Boris is committed to leaving, absent a GNU there will be an election sooner or later, and even after extending he'll still be favoured to win that election. After the said election the membership and the new intake will be highly brexitty, so they'll be able to threaten him with both parliamentary defeat and a leadership challenge. If they believe his line about putting No Deal on the table creating a better deal then it makes sense to hold out for that better deal, and if they don't then they should be able to force him into No Deal.

    Why compromise now, when they're so close to winning?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283
    TheKitchenCabinet said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    timmo said:

    What is really clear this morning is the total panic in remainers ...
    This surely cant be happening....
    Can it?

    I'm a Remainer. If there's a general election before Brexit I will vote for Revoke.

    This morning I am cautiously optimistic and slightly relieved.

    What's this panic you speak of?
    I feel a cautious optimism, but we have to remember it is Boris Johnson who is PM; a man unprecedentedly unsuited to the position with as much experience of negotiation as my pet cat. Still if he does pull it off, we should be grateful to anyone that has had a part in it, and particularly those that voted for the Benn act, that far from tying his hands actually made him push harder for a deal.
    The thing is that the threat of No Deal is now starting to have direct political consequences for Varadkar. In the €1.2bn set aside by Ireland, an extra €100m is for extra unemployment benefits with no deal. Doesn't sound much in absolute terms, adjust for Ireland's population, and that is a big deal and implies the government is expecting a significant spike in unemployment in its event. Given Varadkar has based his whole approach on the man who can beat the Brits, that might not end too well for him (especially given Enda Kelly had a more constructive approach).
    Your post was quite good until you got to the xenophobic anti-Irish anti-Varadkar bit, which by the way, is complete cobblers.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    MarqueeMark said:

    Why the hell would the EU want a "confirmatory referendum"? If there's a deal, nail the bloody thing down in Westminster. The last thing the EU wants is a wholly unneccessary bit of extra democracy thrown into the mix. What if the orney voters nix the deal? Where are they then?

    Nah, if the Irish are happy with it, that should do the EU too. No futher extensions and put the MPs' feet to the fire. Make them do what they pledged to their voters they'd do - deliver Brexit.

    If a new deal is reached that's 2 deals the EU have agreed. It seems not to matter to them whether we agree either or remain, so long as we dont no deal
  • TheKitchenCabinetTheKitchenCabinet Posts: 2,275
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    TheKitchenCabinet said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    timmo said:

    What is really clear this morning is the total panic in remainers ...
    This surely cant be happening....
    Can it?

    I'm a Remainer. If there's a general election before Brexit I will vote for Revoke.

    This morning I am cautiously optimistic and slightly relieved.

    What's this panic you speak of?
    I feel a cautious optimism, but we have to remember it is Boris Johnson who is PM; a man unprecedentedly unsuited to the position with as much experience of negotiation as my pet cat. Still if he does pull it off, we should be grateful to anyone that has had a part in it, and particularly those that voted for the Benn act, that far from tying his hands actually made him push harder for a deal.
    The thing is that the threat of No Deal is now starting to have direct political consequences for Varadkar. In the €1.2bn set aside by Ireland, an extra €100m is for extra unemployment benefits with no deal. Doesn't sound much in absolute terms, adjust for Ireland's population, and that is a big deal and implies the government is expecting a significant spike in unemployment in its event. Given Varadkar has based his whole approach on the man who can beat the Brits, that might not end too well for him (especially given Enda Kelly had a more constructive approach).
    Your post was quite good until you got to the xenophobic anti-Irish anti-Varadkar bit, which by the way, is complete cobblers.
    My folks are Irish and I have an Irish passport and proud to do so. I'd hazard a guess I probably know a bit more than you do of the underlying meanings of some of the things he has said.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    timmo said:

    What is really clear this morning is the total panic in remainers ...

    DavidL said:

    Slight whiff of panic on the part of remainers this morning.

    Really?

    The overwhelming vibe I am getting this morning is "ERG. Don't Fuck this up. Again"
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    OblitusSumMe said:

    TheKitchenCabinet said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    timmo said:

    What is really clear this morning is the total panic in remainers ...
    This surely cant be happening....
    Can it?

    I'm a Remainer. If there's a general election before Brexit I will vote for Revoke.

    This morning I am cautiously optimistic and slightly relieved.

    What's this panic you speak of?
    I feel a cautious optimism, but we have to remember it is Boris Johnson who is PM; a man unprecedentedly unsuited to the position with as much experience of negotiation as my pet cat. Still if he does pull it off, we should be grateful to anyone that has had a part in it, and particularly those that voted for the Benn act, that far from tying his hands actually made him push harder for a deal.
    The thing is that the threat of No Deal is now starting to have direct political consequences for Varadkar. In the €1.2bn set aside by Ireland, an extra €100m is for extra unemployment benefits with no deal. Doesn't sound much in absolute terms, adjust for Ireland's population, and that is a big deal and implies the government is expecting a significant spike in unemployment in its event. Given Varadkar has based his whole approach on the man who can beat the Brits, that might not end too well for him (especially given Enda Kelly had a more constructive approach).
    Wait a minute. Just a couple of days ago Leavers were blaming quisling Remainers for sabotaging the talks by taking No Deal off the table.

    Maybe the lack of No Deal has forced Johnson to find a deal? He is perhaps less willing to resign to avoid asking for an extension than HYUFD has suggested.
    Perhaps, though hyufd still reckons a deal will not be passed prior to an election, and whatever else he is he is representative of how the majority of tories now think.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,896
    The remain side has so thoroughly trashed the previous attempt at direct democracy that I can't really see another go being given credence by the leave side.
    So we'll need the wonders in parliament to decide if they like Boris' detail or not.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    One point worth noting: the DUP have very little room for manoeuvre. They received no support at all in Northern Ireland for their position on the last Boris Johnson doodle. It's going to be hard for them to make further concessions.
  • TheKitchenCabinetTheKitchenCabinet Posts: 2,275
    OblitusSumMe said:

    TheKitchenCabinet said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    timmo said:

    What is really clear this morning is the total panic in remainers ...
    This surely cant be happening....
    Can it?

    I'm a Remainer. If there's a general election before Brexit I will vote for Revoke.

    This morning I am cautiously optimistic and slightly relieved.

    What's this panic you speak of?
    I feel a cautious optimism, but we have to remember it is Boris Johnson who is PM; a man unprecedentedly unsuited to the position with as much experience of negotiation as my pet cat. Still if he does pull it off, we should be grateful to anyone that has had a part in it, and particularly those that voted for the Benn act, that far from tying his hands actually made him push harder for a deal.
    The thing is that the threat of No Deal is now starting to have direct political consequences for Varadkar. In the €1.2bn set aside by Ireland, an extra €100m is for extra unemployment benefits with no deal. Doesn't sound much in absolute terms, adjust for Ireland's population, and that is a big deal and implies the government is expecting a significant spike in unemployment in its event. Given Varadkar has based his whole approach on the man who can beat the Brits, that might not end too well for him (especially given Enda Kelly had a more constructive approach).
    Wait a minute. Just a couple of days ago Leavers were blaming quisling Remainers for sabotaging the talks by taking No Deal off the table.

    Maybe the lack of No Deal has forced Johnson to find a deal? He is perhaps less willing to resign to avoid asking for an extension than HYUFD has suggested.
    I'm not talking about what leavers have said over here and what is happening with Johnson, it is the consequences for Varadkar. If we crash out, he is likely to pick up a share of the blame in Ireland. Add in that the Eurozone is increasingly looking economically weak, the last thing everyone needs is for no deal to start hitting GDP
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,707
    edited October 2019
    nichomar said:


    If it gets as far as a vote then ERG will be told vote for it or lose whip and your jobs, which for most of them is the best job they will ever get. It will also allow many of the other Tory rebels back in the fold. Anyone know how many constituencies have adopted new candidates? Lots of ifs but it looks a neat solution for them.

    I guess a lot of them would have a decent chance as BXP though?

    Relatedly their memberships won't necessarily be supportive of Boris in this situation.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1182555839032385537
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283
    ozymandias said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Still if he does pull it off, we should be grateful to anyone that has had a part in it, and particularly those that voted for the Benn act, that far from tying his hands actually made him push harder for a deal.

    Yeah, that seems not to be noticed by the headbangers but it seems pretty unarguable on the turn of events.
    Not quite true. We have no idea of how the actual and real threat of no deal would have had on both the UK and the EU negotiations to this point in time.

    With all due respect you’re not a dispassionate observer.

    Please point out anyone that is. Alastair, like me, thinks the whole thing is bonkers, but is prepared to settle for a less damaging compromise. I see little from leave orientated posters on here that wish to compromise at all. The position of most leavers has been to take a very marginal victory (52%) and treat it as though they had the support of 90%, when in reality they probably have lost the small lead they once had.

    If they get a any type of Brexit they should be grateful and push for a fuller fat version if they think the electorate has the stomach for, or is gullible enough to swallow it.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1182555130434076672
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    edited October 2019
    Mysticrose said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Unclear why Boris would agree to Ref 2. He'd have a leadership challenge on his hands.

    He'll hate it but he won't be given the choice.
    Quite. Too many are just plain opposed to leaving or fear Boris will be rewarded for getting a deal if it passes the commons, so confirmation via a public vote becomes the excuse to not pass it alone. Gives us the chance to remain after all, which at this point is least worst, but it is a deeply cynical move, part if how positions have shifted such that now any deal even a labour one fir instance would face a ref rather than be approved
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Mr. grss, pretty sure the rise of PMC (Private Military Companies) is one of Metal Gear Solid 4's plot points.

    Look on the bright side: at least we don't have bipedal nuclear-armed tanks and insane hyper-violent cyborg ninjas.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    edited October 2019
    SquareRoot said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    ozymandias said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    DavidL said:

    Slight whiff of panic on the part of remainers this morning. The inevitability of failure has been shaken. But there’s a long way to go and what is still a remainer dominated HoC to negotiate. I suspect that is the source of Boris’ silence. Anything bombastic will inevitably stir up opposition from one band of nutters or the other and he needs all hands on deck.

    I suspect the problem is at the ERG/DUP end. If he gets this wrong, there may be defections to the Brexit party. The noises overnight from the DUP do not suggest much flexibility there and there are quite a few Conservative MPs who will take their cue from them.
    ....he says hopefully while keeping everything crossed and clutching his lucky gonk. 😉
    I’d much prefer a workable deal. It will be dismal but it is less bad than further political centrifuge at this point.
    Most people just want a deal...any deal. They (inc me) are sick of hearing about Brexit. That it has gone on for three yrs with no agreement says a lot about our politicians.
    But do we want this government for the next 5 years? I'm pinning my hopes on Scotland getting it's independence and remaining in Europe. Happily my mother was Scottish.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283
    Pulpstar said:

    The remain side has so thoroughly trashed the previous attempt at direct democracy that I can't really see another go being given credence by the leave side.
    So we'll need the wonders in parliament to decide if they like Boris' detail or not.

    It was easy to trash because it was simplistic and poorly drafted. The biggest weakness with it was that it did not have safeguards that recognised we are a union of 4 nations/principalities, and it did not make the result binding on the executive. The former would have been better for remain, the latter for leave.

    Either way, it was a shoddy way to run a referendum even if you ignore possible irregularities relating to hostile government interference, and the downright lies and disinformation that was propogated.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Based on current aggregate of polls by Britain elects, using Flavibles new system, under a Remain pact including Labour, Lab / LDs could form a government. Without Labour, (just LDs, Greens and Nats), Tories don't get a majority, but massively ahead of Labour.

    https://flavible.co.uk/userprediction/gb/32.1/23.9/20.6/13.4/3.7/4/0.3/1

    http://britainelects.com/

    This suggests tactical voting is going to be super important, and that any result based on national polls is going to be really difficult to predict. I can't find any constituency level polling atm, so maybe with some of that it would look different, but who knows.
  • Yellow_SubmarineYellow_Submarine Posts: 647
    Hmm. So now both the first batch of newsprint frontpages and the Today programme have passed without any attempt at all by HMG to sell the deal. As it's take out the trash day the next media threshold is Saturday evening when the exclusives from the Sundays start to go online. While the fact no one has nuked it yet means everyone is still talking it also means that de facto there is no deal yet.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    SouthamObserver said:

    Any deal will involve the UK moving towards the EU position. That is inevitable. However, anything that Johnson brings back will need to be considered carefully by the loons. There is no new knight of Brexit ready to ride to their rescue. Johnson is their last hope. If they destroy him as they destroyed May then they will destroy what it is they claim they want. So I think most will vote for any Deal he presents. I also think the Kinnock Labour MPs will, too. It will therefore pass - just. The key battle now is the final deal we get post-transition.

    Why are you so sure the Kinnock crowd will vote for a deal. I get thinking the ERG etc will on the basis it really is the last chance for brexit when under May they believed theyd get another shot. But Kinnock and co will face huge pressure to reject it, or at least only permit it with a referendum. Why will they resist that? It cant be fear of no deal.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I'd be amazed if we have another referendum after the divisiveness of the previous one. 95% won't happen IMO.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    DavidL said:

    Slight whiff of panic on the part of remainers this morning. The inevitability of failure has been shaken. But there’s a long way to go and what is still a remainer dominated HoC to negotiate. I suspect that is the source of Boris’ silence. Anything bombastic will inevitably stir up opposition from one band of nutters or the other and he needs all hands on deck.

    Not at all. Most remainers are cautiously optimistic that Leo will have instilled some sense into Boris and hence achieve some kind of rescue from the dire state that you lot of numpties got us into.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Still if he does pull it off, we should be grateful to anyone that has had a part in it, and particularly those that voted for the Benn act, that far from tying his hands actually made him push harder for a deal.

    Yeah, that seems not to be noticed by the headbangers but it seems pretty unarguable on the turn of events.
    Very few people will get credit they may deserve should a desl be agreed and approved. Not May for doing bulk of the work, not Boris for getting tweaks, not those forcing Boris to work more for a desl.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    AlastairMeeks said:

    The silence from Downing Street, normally so noisy, is the main focus of my attention just now. It doesn’t have a line to take yet because it doesn’t know who it is taking on yet. The vacuum has been filled by the Irish perspective on the discussions.

    When Boris Johnson or Dominic Cummings eventually break cover, we will know much more.

    And given that silence has allowed desl optimism to rise again they will have lost momentum in the blame game if they trash things now.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    timmo said:

    What is really clear this morning is the total panic in remainers ...
    This surely cant be happening....
    Can it?

    I'm a Remainer. If there's a general election before Brexit I will vote for Revoke.

    This morning I am cautiously optimistic and slightly relieved.

    What's this panic you speak of?
    I feel a cautious optimism, but we have to remember it is Boris Johnson who is PM; a man unprecedentedly unsuited to the position with as much experience of negotiation as my pet cat. Still if he does pull it off, we should be grateful to anyone that has had a part in it, and particularly those that voted for the Benn act, that far from tying his hands actually made him push harder for a deal.
    Keeping his marriage alive as long as he did must have involved some negotiation...
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    ozymandias said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Still if he does pull it off, we should be grateful to anyone that has had a part in it, and particularly those that voted for the Benn act, that far from tying his hands actually made him push harder for a deal.

    Yeah, that seems not to be noticed by the headbangers but it seems pretty unarguable on the turn of events.
    Not quite true. We have no idea of how the actual and real threat of no deal would have had on both the UK and the EU negotiations to this point in time.

    With all due respect you’re not a dispassionate observer.

    Please point out anyone that is. Alastair, like me, thinks the whole thing is bonkers, but is prepared to settle for a less damaging compromise. I see little from leave orientated posters on here that wish to compromise at all. The position of most leavers has been to take a very marginal victory (52%) and treat it as though they had the support of 90%, when in reality they probably have lost the small lead they once had.

    If they get a any type of Brexit they should be grateful and push for a fuller fat version if they think the electorate has the stomach for, or is gullible enough to swallow it.
    I voted to leave, and yet I’m far from an ill-educated, illiterate, xenophobic, racist, head banging deathcult member - or any of the other favourite insults levied on here to some.

    All of my friends and acquaintances who voted leave are also none of these things.

    Likewise my friends who voted Remian are not UK hating, federalist traitors.

    I’m completely for compromise. But compromise has been torpedoed by extremists on both sides. Added to which the search for compromise is, well compromised, by those wearing such anti-Boris coloured spectacles they’re blinded in their hatred and fail to accept compromise when it comes along.

    All leavers aren’t nutcases. And all remainers aren’t conspiring traitors. When we finally realise this and accept it then we might start to put this country back together.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    AlastairMeeks said:

    https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1182555839032385537

    What chance would she have had of holding her old seat?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited October 2019
    AlastairMeeks said:

    https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1182555839032385537

    Altrincham & Sale West: Remain 61.4%

    Penistone & Stocksbridge: Remain 39.3%

    You can see the attraction of the move.

    Also worth noting that at GE2017 Brady lost vote share, against the national tide for the Conservatives. Clearly a Brexit effect involved.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. grss, pretty sure the rise of PMC (Private Military Companies) is one of Metal Gear Solid 4's plot points.

    Look on the bright side: at least we don't have bipedal nuclear-armed tanks and insane hyper-violent cyborg ninjas.

    That you know of. I love MGS4 - it's a crazy movie with a game attached.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    PeterC said:

    asjohnstone said:

    Mysticrose said:

    asjohnstone said:

    Confirmatory referendum, sure, but what the question?

    Deal / Remain or Deal / No Deal ?


    Deal vs Remain

    I've thought about this a lot and you cannot offer to the people something so manifestly disastrous as No Deal. Leave that to the headbangers in the BXP who either don't care about stuffing up the country or who are too ignorant to realise it.
    That'd lead to a BXP / ERG boycott; potentially leading to a remain win on a vastly lower turn out than the last time ? Also rips the Tory party to shreds.

    Better to just deal, vote it through the HoC and frame any further discussions on the topic as headbangers from either side.
    I agree. With No Deal polling up to 40% = depending on which poll and what circumstances = a decision by politicians to strike it off the ballot would destroy the legitimacy of the referendum. There would be no closure - only a compromise deal will achieve that.
    no-deal" is actually a fantasy position. There will have to be deals, lots and lots of them, after the crash out and all of which will be deleterious to Britain's interest because we will be in a position of weakness. The fact that some people are dumb enough to think this might be a good idea is not a reason for any government to put it on a ballot paper, though it does suggest a better education system is needed.
    What you say is objectively correct. But unless the referendum is fair and seen to be fair the issue will come back, perhaps in very short order. If we have a referendum - which I hope we will not - No Deal or Clean Break or Hard Brexit must be taken into the argument.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    AlastairMeeks said:

    One point worth noting: the DUP have very little room for manoeuvre. They received no support at all in Northern Ireland for their position on the last Boris Johnson doodle. It's going to be hard for them to make further concessions.

    This is the biggest reason to be pessimistic. By definition any new deal will need concessions but the mere fact of those concessions, without political benefit to it fir them, means it's so easy to say no.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Charles said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Why the hell would the EU want a "confirmatory referendum"? If there's a deal, nail the bloody thing down in Westminster. The last thing the EU wants is a wholly unneccessary bit of extra democracy thrown into the mix. What if the orney voters nix the deal? Where are they then?

    Nah, if the Irish are happy with it, that should do the EU too. No futher extensions and put the MPs' feet to the fire. Make them do what they pledged to their voters they'd do - deliver Brexit.

    So you are against democracy
    Referendums are for “in principle” decisions

    Details legislation is for Parliament

    Treaties are for the executive subject to parliamentary oversight
    So speaks the constitutional expert. My understanding was that constitutional experts are uncertain of the constitutional status of referenda as we do not have it as a mainstream part of our unwritten constitution. Still it is good that you are one of the few leavers I have heard recognise that the referendum was purely advisory, which of course it was, and badly drafted at that.
    Legally advisory but from a moral (and political) perspective wrong to ignore

    Parliament is subservient to the voters not their master
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    ozymandias said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    ozymandias said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Still if he does pull it off, we should be grateful to anyone that has had a part in it, and particularly those that voted for the Benn act, that far from tying his hands actually made him push harder for a deal.

    Yeah, that seems not to be noticed by the headbangers but it seems pretty unarguable on the turn of events.
    Not quite true. We have no idea of how the actual and real threat of no deal would have had on both the UK and the EU negotiations to this point in time.

    With all due respect you’re not a dispassionate observer.

    Please point out anyone that is. Alastair, like me, thinks the whole thing is bonkers, but is prepared to settle for a less damaging compromise. I see little from leave orientated posters on here that wish to compromise at all. The position of most leavers has been to take a very marginal victory (52%) and treat it as though they had the support of 90%, when in reality they probably have lost the small lead they once had.

    If they get a any type of Brexit they should be grateful and push for a fuller fat version if they think the electorate has the stomach for, or is gullible enough to swallow it.
    I voted to leave, and yet I’m far from an ill-educated, illiterate, xenophobic, racist, head banging deathcult member - or any of the other favourite insults levied on here to some.

    All of my friends and acquaintances who voted leave are also none of these things.

    Likewise my friends who voted Remian are not UK hating, federalist traitors.

    I’m completely for compromise. But compromise has been torpedoed by extremists on both sides. Added to which the search for compromise is, well compromised, by those wearing such anti-Boris coloured spectacles they’re blinded in their hatred and fail to accept compromise when it comes along.

    All leavers aren’t nutcases. And all remainers aren’t conspiring traitors. When we finally realise this and accept it then we might start to put this country back together.
    That’s what all ill-educated, illiterate, xenophobic, racist, head banging deathcult members say
This discussion has been closed.