Nick there you are. You nailed it last time on numbers of Lab MPs likely to vote with govt on the WA. Assuming it comes back more or less as is, what would you think Lab numbers-wise now?
It's really hard to say without seeing the outlines of the deal. The Kinnock 19 are clearly the potential pool. They're stuck their necks out to indicate willingness to support a deal, so they are clearly potential recruits.
They will mostly face pro-Remain majorities in their CLPs (and potentially their voters if not their whole electorate), some of whom may be seduced by the "It's not a No Deal" relief but who will probably mostly want to hang on for a referendum. There is also the specific Labour objection that the social and environmental guarantees are apparently being explicitly junked, which is a Big Red Line for most of us - a Labour MP who wants to sign up for Britain-as-Singapore is a unicorn-like rarity.
But the wish not to be the block to a deal will be strong. I'd think that they are winnable (probably in a group rather than the odd straggler - safety in numbers) if Boris gives them some reason to think that they're not voting for a mad dash for a low-tax low-regulation pirate state.
I think it is a gross misunderstanding of Leavers by Remainers that they actually want No Deal.
Maybe the Tory Eurosceptics who have wanted to Leave since the 20th Century feel that way, but I would estimate the vast majority of Leave voters want a deal
They didn't want the deal that was available, and any replacement is not going to be very different. I suppose it's possible that they've been worn down by reality, and now might accept what they previously trashed, but if so there wasn't much sign of it during the Tory leadership campaign.
You think the opposition parties are going to be getting Brucie bonus from the voters for ever-delaying Brexit? Anybody that keeps this saga being retold over the campfire is going to be on the wrong end of a Beserker....
They don't need to. Just a few weeks delay and Farage and the Spartans will do the rest. After all, no-one forced Boris to make a fetish out of an arbitrary date. He did it all by himself. He didn't even need to do so to get the leadership gig.
What makes you so sure that Leave voters will be unwilling to forgive Boris for getting a deal done by Nov 31 or Dec 31? If he agrees one with the EU and parliament wont back it, and have made No deal illegal, I dont think it's he they will blame
Experience. The way they turned against Theresa May was pretty dramatic, wasn't it? This is a group who won't take Yes for an answer, and have consistently accused everyone who's actually tried to do anything realistic of betrayal. Why would Boris be immune to this iron law?
I may be wrong on this but in the short term Boris is the hardcore Brexiteers final chance. They might be blinkered but they aren't stupid and they'll know that Boris represents their best chance of leaving.
Psychologically, Boris has that to his advantage too. He can convincingly use the threat that if they vote against him, that'll be it. Because for all their belligerence and bravado the ERG camp have nobody else with Boris's appeal.
I`ve long thought that the best way to "dishonour" the 2016 Referndum result will come when leavers themselves say they have changed their minds. I believe that many have buyer`s remorse but are reluctant to admit it.
At the moment, the only remorse I have is that three and a half years on the goods I bought have still to be delivered and that the supplier is now arguing that the contract I signed was worthless.
I trust you won't be purchasing from that supplier again?
Given the chance (which is also being denied me at the moment) I'll be sueing those who reneged on the contract.
You should be suing for tortious interference instead
Gabs2 sais: "If this deal comes through, I beg MPs of all parties to put aside their own ego, partisanship and dislike of their opponents for the sake of setting this country on a path to reconciliation."
Not going to happen. Corbyn`s worst nightmare is the tories succesfully getting a deal through. He will exert massive pressure on those Labour MPs to recant from voting for any deal. Some stalwats (Hoey, Mann) will defy him but others will cave.
Judy Rudd an amateur genealogy researcher in south east Queensland , was doing some personal work on her own family tree. She discovered that ex-Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s great-great uncle, Remus Rudd, was hanged for horse stealing and train robbery in Melbourne in 1889. Both Judy and Kevin Rudd share this common ancestor. The only known photograph of Uncle Remus shows him standing on the gallows at the Melbourne Gaol.
On the back of the picture Judy obtained during her research is this inscription: 'Remus Rudd horse thief, sent to Melbourne Gaol 1885, escaped 1887. Robbed the Melbourne-Geelong train six times. Caught by Victoria Police Force, convicted and hanged in 1889.' So Judy recently e-mailed ex-Prime Minister Rudd for information about their great-great uncle, Remus Rudd.
Believe it or not, Kevin Rudd's staff sent back the following biographical sketch for her genealogy research: "Remus Rudd was famous in Victoria during the mid to late 1800s. His business empire grew to include acquisition of valuable equestrian assets and intimate dealings with the Melbourne-Geelong Railroad. Beginning in 1883, he devoted several years of his life to government service, finally taking leave to resume his dealings with the railroad. In 1887, he was a key player in a vital investigation run by the Victoria Police Force. In 1889, Remus passed away during an important civic function held in his honour when the platform upon which he was standing collapsed."
I may be wrong on this but in the short term Boris is the hardcore Brexiteers final chance. They might be blinkered but they aren't stupid and they'll know that Boris represents their best chance of leaving.
Psychologically, Boris has that to his advantage too. He can convincingly use the threat that if they vote against him, that'll be it. Because for all their belligerence and bravado the ERG camp have nobody else with Boris's appeal.
Rather clever, but very polarising. On that brief glimpse, she's much less annoying than Hillary
Is anyone polarisable not yet polarised ?
Point is she would make Trump look the lumbering walrus-wit he is in any presidential debate. And she has the timing to deliver a punchline that Hillary never did.
Hillary won all 3 post debate polls, she still lost the election as they made no difference to Trump's base in Midwestern swing states
What base? The base that voted for Romney at almost exactly the same rate?
Missing Obama voters is the key, not cracking the "always voted Republican all their life block" .
Trump did better with working class voters and poor voters in the key swing states that counted in the Midwest and South, Trump did worse than Romney with upper middle class voters in the coastal states that are safe Democratic anyway.
For example, Trump got 47.5% in Michigan and Romney only got 44.7%.
In California though Romney got 37.1% but Trump only got 31.6%.
He did significantly worse with black and other ethnic minority voters. That’s why he is trying to suppress their vote in 2020.
Wrong.
Trump won 8% of the black vote, Romney only won 6% of the black vote.
Trump also won 29% of the Hispanic vote, Romney only won 27% of the Hispanic vote.
I meant that Obama did significantly better amongst the black and ethnic minority vote. The thread started with a discussion of Obama/Trump before you, as is your habit, moved the goalposts
You think the opposition parties are going to be getting Brucie bonus from the voters for ever-delaying Brexit? Anybody that keeps this saga being retold over the campfire is going to be on the wrong end of a Beserker....
They don't need to. Just a few weeks delay and Farage and the Spartans will do the rest. After all, no-one forced Boris to make a fetish out of an arbitrary date. He did it all by himself. He didn't even need to do so to get the leadership gig.
What makes you so sure that Leave voters will be unwilling to forgive Boris for getting a deal done by Nov 31 or Dec 31? If he agrees one with the EU and parliament wont back it, and have made No deal illegal, I dont think it's he they will blame
Many won't forgive him for the deal itself
I think it is a gross misunderstanding of Leavers by Remainers that they actually want No Deal.
Maybe the Tory Eurosceptics who have wanted to Leave since the 20th Century feel that way, but I would estimate the vast majority of Leave voters want a deal
I'm not assuming they want no deal, I'm assuming they don't want any deal which is actually achievable.
Not sure even if there’s a deal there’s time to get through all the legislation needed .
Which brings us back to the Johnson pledge to leave by 31st October.
The EU is a rules based organization, everything has to be legally watertight before they sign off .
Even if you agree with proposals these have to be translated into legal text , then they have to go to 27 other EU members .
This won’t happen overnight . I don’t see how this all can be done by next Thursday especially as the so called tunnel negotiations haven’t even started .
Nick there you are. You nailed it last time on numbers of Lab MPs likely to vote with govt on the WA. Assuming it comes back more or less as is, what would you think Lab numbers-wise now?
It's really hard to say without seeing the outlines of the deal. The Kinnock 19 are clearly the potential pool. They're stuck their necks out to indicate willingness to support a deal, so they are clearly potential recruits.
They will mostly face pro-Remain majorities in their CLPs (and potentially their voters if not their whole electorate), some of whom may be seduced by the "It's not a No Deal" relief but who will probably mostly want to hang on for a referendum. There is also the specific Labour objection that the social and environmental guarantees are apparently being explicitly junked, which is a Big Red Line for most of us - a Labour MP who wants to sign up for Britain-as-Singapore is a unicorn-like rarity.
But the wish not to be the block to a deal will be strong. I'd think that they are winnable (probably in a group rather than the odd straggler - safety in numbers) if Boris gives them some reason to think that they're not voting for a mad dash for a low-tax low-regulation pirate state.
If the Tories want to have a low tax low regulation pirate state, the British public will be the bulwark against that by turning on them and voting in centre-left governments. It is pathetic of people to vote down a deal because they don't have confidence in their own electoral program.
Judy Rudd an amateur genealogy researcher in south east Queensland , was doing some personal work on her own family tree. She discovered that ex-Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s great-great uncle, Remus Rudd, was hanged for horse stealing and train robbery in Melbourne in 1889. Both Judy and Kevin Rudd share this common ancestor. The only known photograph of Uncle Remus shows him standing on the gallows at the Melbourne Gaol.
On the back of the picture Judy obtained during her research is this inscription: 'Remus Rudd horse thief, sent to Melbourne Gaol 1885, escaped 1887. Robbed the Melbourne-Geelong train six times. Caught by Victoria Police Force, convicted and hanged in 1889.' So Judy recently e-mailed ex-Prime Minister Rudd for information about their great-great uncle, Remus Rudd.
Believe it or not, Kevin Rudd's staff sent back the following biographical sketch for her genealogy research: "Remus Rudd was famous in Victoria during the mid to late 1800s. His business empire grew to include acquisition of valuable equestrian assets and intimate dealings with the Melbourne-Geelong Railroad. Beginning in 1883, he devoted several years of his life to government service, finally taking leave to resume his dealings with the railroad. In 1887, he was a key player in a vital investigation run by the Victoria Police Force. In 1889, Remus passed away during an important civic function held in his honour when the platform upon which he was standing collapsed."
I think it is a gross misunderstanding of Leavers by Remainers that they actually want No Deal.
Maybe the Tory Eurosceptics who have wanted to Leave since the 20th Century feel that way, but I would estimate the vast majority of Leave voters want a deal
They didn't want the deal that was available, and any replacement is not going to be very different. I suppose it's possible that they've been worn down by reality, and now might accept what they previously trashed, but if so there wasn't much sign of it during the Tory leadership campaign.
You're being unusually obtuse. Listen to people like Nigel Evans, John Redwood, etc. I know it's not fun, but listen.
They HAVE been worn down, They sound exhausted and acceptant. The fight has gone, and they are scared Brexit will be taken away altogether.
I doubt more than a handful of Tories will rebel, if Boris delivers. The key is the DUP and Labour.
I think it is a gross misunderstanding of Leavers by Remainers that they actually want No Deal.
Maybe the Tory Eurosceptics who have wanted to Leave since the 20th Century feel that way, but I would estimate the vast majority of Leave voters want a deal
They didn't want the deal that was available, and any replacement is not going to be very different. I suppose it's possible that they've been worn down by reality, and now might accept what they previously trashed, but if so there wasn't much sign of it during the Tory leadership campaign.
Yes, but I think it is fair to assume that the public thought we would be leaving with a deal. The way for MPs who want a No Deal type country is to win an election on that manifesto. That is the reality and I hope they have been worn down by it!
Judy Rudd an amateur genealogy researcher in south east Queensland , was doing some personal work on her own family tree. She discovered that ex-Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s great-great uncle, Remus Rudd, was hanged for horse stealing and train robbery in Melbourne in 1889. Both Judy and Kevin Rudd share this common ancestor. The only known photograph of Uncle Remus shows him standing on the gallows at the Melbourne Gaol.
On the back of the picture Judy obtained during her research is this inscription: 'Remus Rudd horse thief, sent to Melbourne Gaol 1885, escaped 1887. Robbed the Melbourne-Geelong train six times. Caught by Victoria Police Force, convicted and hanged in 1889.' So Judy recently e-mailed ex-Prime Minister Rudd for information about their great-great uncle, Remus Rudd.
Believe it or not, Kevin Rudd's staff sent back the following biographical sketch for her genealogy research: "Remus Rudd was famous in Victoria during the mid to late 1800s. His business empire grew to include acquisition of valuable equestrian assets and intimate dealings with the Melbourne-Geelong Railroad. Beginning in 1883, he devoted several years of his life to government service, finally taking leave to resume his dealings with the railroad. In 1887, he was a key player in a vital investigation run by the Victoria Police Force. In 1889, Remus passed away during an important civic function held in his honour when the platform upon which he was standing collapsed."
I think it is a gross misunderstanding of Leavers by Remainers that they actually want No Deal.
Maybe the Tory Eurosceptics who have wanted to Leave since the 20th Century feel that way, but I would estimate the vast majority of Leave voters want a deal
They didn't want the deal that was available, and any replacement is not going to be very different. I suppose it's possible that they've been worn down by reality, and now might accept what they previously trashed, but if so there wasn't much sign of it during the Tory leadership campaign.
You're being unusually obtuse. Listen to people like Nigel Evans, John Redwood, etc. I know it's not fun, but listen.
They HAVE been worn down, They sound exhausted and acceptant. The fight has gone, and they are scared Brexit will be taken away altogether.
I doubt more than a handful of Tories will rebel, if Boris delivers. The key is the DUP and Labour.
The DUP will never vote for a NI only backstop.
So either enough Labour MPs vote for it to get it over the line or we have to wait for a Tory majority to get a Brexit Deal with the EU without a confirmatory referendum
Judy Rudd an amateur genealogy researcher in south east Queensland , was doing some personal work on her own family tree. She discovered that ex-Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s great-great uncle, Remus Rudd, was hanged for horse stealing and train robbery in Melbourne in 1889. Both Judy and Kevin Rudd share this common ancestor. The only known photograph of Uncle Remus shows him standing on the gallows at the Melbourne Gaol.
On the back of the picture Judy obtained during her research is this inscription: 'Remus Rudd horse thief, sent to Melbourne Gaol 1885, escaped 1887. Robbed the Melbourne-Geelong train six times. Caught by Victoria Police Force, convicted and hanged in 1889.' So Judy recently e-mailed ex-Prime Minister Rudd for information about their great-great uncle, Remus Rudd.
Believe it or not, Kevin Rudd's staff sent back the following biographical sketch for her genealogy research: "Remus Rudd was famous in Victoria during the mid to late 1800s. His business empire grew to include acquisition of valuable equestrian assets and intimate dealings with the Melbourne-Geelong Railroad. Beginning in 1883, he devoted several years of his life to government service, finally taking leave to resume his dealings with the railroad. In 1887, he was a key player in a vital investigation run by the Victoria Police Force. In 1889, Remus passed away during an important civic function held in his honour when the platform upon which he was standing collapsed."
All those remainers who are breathing a sigh of relief at a glimpse of ankle from yesterday's news, pay attention. This is hard Brexit. You've been gaslit into fearing No Deal so much you're now willing to listen to what was, three years ago, the nightmare scenario. Classic Overton window shenanigans. This is not a compromise. Revoke.
I have no idea what an Overton is, but I am up for a darned good revocation!
Thanks. I had thought it was probably a football metaphor of some sort so I never bothered looking it up. You know what this place can be like for sporting references...
Yeah, a few too many forced parallels between politics and sport. It's a really great concept, though, and explains a lot of what's gone on in recent years. Part of the reason I'm so... pugnacious... in my views is because I believe there's a weakness at the heart of British liberalism which oughtn't be there: we compromise with the illiberal far too readily. We're willing to accept illiberal outcomes to prevent horrifying fascist ones. I don't believe we should do that, not least because it's wrong per se, but also because anyone who hitches their wagon to the extremists is helping enable them. They are using the Overton window as a substitute to winning an argument. The weird confluence between "libertarians" and fascists is the nexus that worries me the most, because that's how the extremists got embedded into the Conservative party. The libertarians project stalled some time ago, so in recent years they've taken to surfing on a tide of vicious right wing wreckers who want to tear down the state (to replace it with something much more sinister). Some libertarians, bafflingly, think this is their route in, that they can somehow align to cause damage and then dealign and bring in their utopia.
I believe that ultimately the weakness of liberals is that they see politics as a conflict between ideologies, with people acting as their ideologies' mostly good-faith representatives. In reality, politics is a conflict between people (and their interests).
Rather clever, but very polarising. On that brief glimpse, she's much less annoying than Hillary
Is anyone polarisable not yet polarised ?
Point is she would make Trump look the lumbering walrus-wit he is in any presidential debate. And she has the timing to deliver a punchline that Hillary never did.
Hillary won all 3 post debate polls, she still lost the election as they made no difference to Trump's base in Midwestern swing states
What base? The base that voted for Romney at almost exactly the same rate?
Missing Obama voters is the key, not cracking the "always voted Republican all their life block" .
Trump did better with working class voters and poor voters in the key swing states that counted in the Midwest and South, Trump did worse than Romney with upper middle class voters in the coastal states that are safe Democratic anyway.
For example, Trump got 47.5% in Michigan and Romney only got 44.7%.
In California though Romney got 37.1% but Trump only got 31.6%.
He did significantly worse with black and other ethnic minority voters. That’s why he is trying to suppress their vote in 2020.
Wrong.
Trump won 8% of the black vote, Romney only won 6% of the black vote.
Trump also won 29% of the Hispanic vote, Romney only won 27% of the Hispanic vote.
I meant that Obama did significantly better amongst the black and ethnic minority vote. The thread started with a discussion of Obama/Trump before you, as is your habit, moved the goalposts
And Obama will not be on the ballot in 2020 as he was not in 2016 when Trump won
All those remainers who are breathing a sigh of relief at a glimpse of ankle from yesterday's news, pay attention. This is hard Brexit. You've been gaslit into fearing No Deal so much you're now willing to listen to what was, three years ago, the nightmare scenario. Classic Overton window shenanigans. This is not a compromise. Revoke.
Yes. I'm aware of the Overton window shenanigans and yet, I can see that many of my fellow voters have been affected by these over the last few years and so it is a risk that enough of them will vote for no deal to provide it with a mandate.
I cannot ignore how badly my side of the argument has lost that part of public debate when considering the risks of acquiescing to a hard Brexit compared to no deal.
Perhaps there are MPs made of sterner stuff than I who will steer us through to calmer waters. If they are to do so successfully they need to up their game.
Nick there you are. You nailed it last time on numbers of Lab MPs likely to vote with govt on the WA. Assuming it comes back more or less as is, what would you think Lab numbers-wise now?
It's really hard to say without seeing the outlines of the deal. The Kinnock 19 are clearly the potential pool. They're stuck their necks out to indicate willingness to support a deal, so they are clearly potential recruits.
They will mostly face pro-Remain majorities in their CLPs (and potentially their voters if not their whole electorate), some of whom may be seduced by the "It's not a No Deal" relief but who will probably mostly want to hang on for a referendum. There is also the specific Labour objection that the social and environmental guarantees are apparently being explicitly junked, which is a Big Red Line for most of us - a Labour MP who wants to sign up for Britain-as-Singapore is a unicorn-like rarity.
But the wish not to be the block to a deal will be strong. I'd think that they are winnable (probably in a group rather than the odd straggler - safety in numbers) if Boris gives them some reason to think that they're not voting for a mad dash for a low-tax low-regulation pirate state.
@Byronic and @ozymandias are fooling themselves. The disasters of the last few years are all down to the fact that Leave campaigned for xenophobia and hosing money at the NHS and not much else. It turns out that can’t be turned into a sane plan for Brexit. Nor can it just be ignored. Blaming the diplomats for your own moral failings is risible.
Unclear why Boris would agree to Ref 2. He'd have a leadership challenge on his hands.
Exactly as happened to May.
I have no idea if the ERG will decide to cash in their chips and vote for the Johnson Deal (assuming the details are finalised with the EU). Some of them may still believe that they can win a general election on No Deal and therefore vote against.
However, if they all vote with Johnson I think he will have the numbers.
If it gets as far as a vote then ERG will be told vote for it or lose whip and your jobs, which for most of them is the best job they will ever get. It will also allow many of the other Tory rebels back in the fold. Anyone know how many constituencies have adopted new candidates? Lots of ifs but it looks a neat solution for them.
Similarly any Labour MPs inclined to vote for a deal signed by Johnson should have the Whip withdrawn and be unable to stand as Labour candidates at the election.
Rather clever, but very polarising. On that brief glimpse, she's much less annoying than Hillary
Is anyone polarisable not yet polarised ?
Point is she would make Trump look the lumbering walrus-wit he is in any presidential debate. And she has the timing to deliver a punchline that Hillary never did.
Hillary won all 3 post debate polls, she still lost the election as they made no difference to Trump's base in Midwestern swing states
What base? The base that voted for Romney at almost exactly the same rate?
Missing Obama voters is the key, not cracking the "always voted Republican all their life block" .
Trump did better with working class voters and poor voters in the key swing states that counted in the Midwest and South, Trump did worse than Romney with upper middle class voters in the coastal states that are safe Democratic anyway.
For example, Trump got 47.5% in Michigan and Romney only got 44.7%.
In California though Romney got 37.1% but Trump only got 31.6%.
He did significantly worse with black and other ethnic minority voters. That’s why he is trying to suppress their vote in 2020.
Wrong.
Trump won 8% of the black vote, Romney only won 6% of the black vote.
Trump also won 29% of the Hispanic vote, Romney only won 27% of the Hispanic vote.
I meant that Obama did significantly better amongst the black and ethnic minority vote. The thread started with a discussion of Obama/Trump before you, as is your habit, moved the goalposts
Briefing after the Barclay/Barnier meeting and then Ambos briefing is much cooler than yesterday - but not negative. It sounds like there has been progress but less than perhaps hyped yesterday.
I think it is a gross misunderstanding of Leavers by Remainers that they actually want No Deal.
Maybe the Tory Eurosceptics who have wanted to Leave since the 20th Century feel that way, but I would estimate the vast majority of Leave voters want a deal
They didn't want the deal that was available, and any replacement is not going to be very different. I suppose it's possible that they've been worn down by reality, and now might accept what they previously trashed, but if so there wasn't much sign of it during the Tory leadership campaign.
You're being unusually obtuse. Listen to people like Nigel Evans, John Redwood, etc. I know it's not fun, but listen.
They HAVE been worn down, They sound exhausted and acceptant. The fight has gone, and they are scared Brexit will be taken away altogether.
I doubt more than a handful of Tories will rebel, if Boris delivers. The key is the DUP and Labour.
Ah, that's a slightly different point. What started this discussion was whether Boris will retain his support amongst Leave voters in some future GE, especially those who had previously switched to the BXP.
On the numbers for a Commons vote you might well be right - I think the Benn Act has made it much more likely that the Redwoods of this world will support a deal. Sufficient to pass it? I'm sceptical that the DUP will come on board, so probably not. But we shall see.
I’m confused. Did the Benn Act hamstring Johnson or not?
The Benn Act has forced Johnson to step up the negotiations. He’s terrified because of his pledge but he really has left little time now because he was too busy going round the country delivering bluff and bluster .
And it would now look ridiculous if he pulled out of the negotiations because of his obsession with the 31 st October.
The EU can rightly say he left it so late to put forward his proposals and even though there’s been some progress there’s not enough time , please ask for an extension .
All those remainers who are breathing a sigh of relief at a glimpse of ankle from yesterday's news, pay attention. This is hard Brexit. You've been gaslit into fearing No Deal so much you're now willing to listen to what was, three years ago, the nightmare scenario. Classic Overton window shenanigans. This is not a compromise. Revoke.
Yes. I'm aware of the Overton window shenanigans and yet, I can see that many of my fellow voters have been affected by these over the last few years and so it is a risk that enough of them will vote for no deal to provide it with a mandate.
I cannot ignore how badly my side of the argument has lost that part of public debate when considering the risks of acquiescing to a hard Brexit compared to no deal.
Perhaps there are MPs made of sterner stuff than I who will steer us through to calmer waters. If they are to do so successfully they need to up their game.
Any avowed Remainers who want to reverse course on an agreed deal would do best first to seek to tack a referendum onto any Northern Irish aspects and then, following that if successful, to tack a wider referendum on for the rest of the country on the ground that "it's only fair if Northern Ireland gets to have a say".
It probably wouldn't work, but it's probably their best shot.
If the Tories want to have a low tax low regulation pirate state, the British public will be the bulwark against that by turning on them and voting in centre-left governments. It is pathetic of people to vote down a deal because they don't have confidence in their own electoral program.
If The Public have this opinion they can't get it reflected in election results reliably, because FPTP
I think it is a gross misunderstanding of Leavers by Remainers that they actually want No Deal.
Maybe the Tory Eurosceptics who have wanted to Leave since the 20th Century feel that way, but I would estimate the vast majority of Leave voters want a deal
They didn't want the deal that was available, and any replacement is not going to be very different. I suppose it's possible that they've been worn down by reality, and now might accept what they previously trashed, but if so there wasn't much sign of it during the Tory leadership campaign.
You're being unusually obtuse. Listen to people like Nigel Evans, John Redwood, etc. I know it's not fun, but listen.
They HAVE been worn down, They sound exhausted and acceptant. The fight has gone, and they are scared Brexit will be taken away altogether.
I doubt more than a handful of Tories will rebel, if Boris delivers. The key is the DUP and Labour.
The DUP will never vote for a NI only backstop.
So either enough Labour MPs vote for it to get it over the line or we have to wait for a Tory majority to get a Brexit Deal with the EU without a confirmatory referendum
If he gets a half decent deal, and manages to chuck the DUP under the bus, then that's a decent day's work.
The £ is genuinely soaring now. Up 3 cents in a day. Well well well.
Housebuilders and UK-focused banks soaring (around +10% today). This is going to be a bumpy ride, though, as every rumour and counter-rumour swirls through the markets.
Rather clever, but very polarising. On that brief glimpse, she's much less annoying than Hillary
Is anyone polarisable not yet polarised ?
Point is she would make Trump look the lumbering walrus-wit he is in any presidential debate. And she has the timing to deliver a punchline that Hillary never did.
Hillary won all 3 post debate polls, she still lost the election as they made no difference to Trump's base in Midwestern swing states
What base? The base that voted for Romney at almost exactly the same rate?
Missing Obama voters is the key, not cracking the "always voted Republican all their life block" .
Trump did better with working class voters and poor voters in the key swing states that counted in the Midwest and South, Trump did worse than Romney with upper middle class voters in the coastal states that are safe Democratic anyway.
For example, Trump got 47.5% in Michigan and Romney only got 44.7%.
In California though Romney got 37.1% but Trump only got 31.6%.
He did significantly worse with black and other ethnic minority voters. That’s why he is trying to suppress their vote in 2020.
Wrong.
Trump won 8% of the black vote, Romney only won 6% of the black vote.
Trump also won 29% of the Hispanic vote, Romney only won 27% of the Hispanic vote.
I meant that Obama did significantly better amongst the black and ethnic minority vote. The thread started with a discussion of Obama/Trump before you, as is your habit, moved the goalposts
And Obama will not be on the ballot in 2020 as he was not in 2016 when Trump won
@Byronic and @ozymandias are fooling themselves. The disasters of the last few years are all down to the fact that Leave campaigned for xenophobia and hosing money at the NHS and not much else. It turns out that can’t be turned into a sane plan for Brexit. Nor can it just be ignored. Blaming the diplomats for your own moral failings is risible.
What are your moral failings?
I have many. Right now, however, I don't try to hide them behind an entirely spurious attack on the diplomatic classes. Do you want to compile a list of your own moral failings?
I think it is a gross misunderstanding of Leavers by Remainers that they actually want No Deal.
Maybe the Tory Eurosceptics who have wanted to Leave since the 20th Century feel that way, but I would estimate the vast majority of Leave voters want a deal
They didn't want the deal that was available, and any replacement is not going to be very different. I suppose it's possible that they've been worn down by reality, and now might accept what they previously trashed, but if so there wasn't much sign of it during the Tory leadership campaign.
You're being unusually obtuse. Listen to people like Nigel Evans, John Redwood, etc. I know it's not fun, but listen.
They HAVE been worn down, They sound exhausted and acceptant. The fight has gone, and they are scared Brexit will be taken away altogether.
I doubt more than a handful of Tories will rebel, if Boris delivers. The key is the DUP and Labour.
The DUP will never vote for a NI only backstop.
So either enough Labour MPs vote for it to get it over the line or we have to wait for a Tory majority to get a Brexit Deal with the EU without a confirmatory referendum
If he gets a half decent deal, and manages to chuck the DUP under the bus, then that's a decent day's work.
Briefing after the Barclay/Barnier meeting and then Ambos briefing is much cooler than yesterday - but not negative. It sounds like there has been progress but less than perhaps hyped yesterday.
If they go into the tunnel then the chances of a deal are greater than 50%. Perhaps much greater. Because the impetus is all with the deal-makers and the potential for blame and chaos, if it goes wrong, is much increased.
High stakes game that they have to win.
But can Boris win round the Commons? Will Labour and the Lib Dems really shoot down a deal approved by Ireland AND the EU? For what? What possible deal could be better, when we have tried everything else, to the point of nervous collapse?
Briefing after the Barclay/Barnier meeting and then Ambos briefing is much cooler than yesterday - but not negative. It sounds like there has been progress but less than perhaps hyped yesterday.
The £ is genuinely soaring now. Up 3 cents in a day. Well well well.
Housebuilders and UK-focused banks soaring (around +10% today). This is going to be a bumpy ride, though, as every rumour and counter-rumour swirls through the markets.
Mark Carney being proved right that Sterling is more like a developing country currency at the moment, wild movements with every small announcement.
Finalising a Brexit deal will be like landing a burning glider on a battlefield.
It'll be hold on to your hats time. If Boris lands it there'll be a few people dead on the ground and a few supporters inside the glider either missing a head or shot to pieces.
The chances of being blown out of the air before getting to the ground 50/50 at best.
I was replying to your conclusion that the best position for the Tories was leaving by 31 October!
Do you ever think about what you're writing?
I made the conscious decision yesterday to skip over all posts from a certain poster. It's made PB a whole lot more enjoyable. Disagreements and alternative points of view are fine; non-sequiturs and endless dumb statements are not. Just sayin'.
Enjoy your echo chamber!!
Some people use their head as an echo chamber, others construct one in the world.
Also, if Boris manages to get some kind of sunset clause in the NI only backstop that would be a huge, huge difference to the May deal and not leave the country trapped as a rule taker indefinitely.
On the Parliamentary arithmetic - Johnson will get all Tory MPs, bar the most swievel-eyed of the ERG loons, plus most of the MPs he fired. That will take him to, say, 305. That does not leave many independent MPs and Labour rebels to bring it home.
If we get to an FTA negotiation, does the final agreement have to get through Parliament, too? If so, the incentive to not go for an election for the opposition parties will be huge.
Rather clever, but very polarising. On that brief glimpse, she's much less annoying than Hillary
Is anyone polarisable not yet polarised ?
Point is she would make Trump look the lumbering walrus-wit he is in any presidential debate. And she has the timing to deliver a punchline that Hillary never did.
Hillary won all 3 post debate polls, she still lost the election as they made no difference to Trump's base in Midwestern swing states
What base? The base that voted for Romney at almost exactly the same rate?
Missing Obama voters is the key, not cracking the "always voted Republican all their life block" .
Trump did better with working class voters and poor voters in the key swing states that counted in the Midwest and South, Trump did worse than Romney with upper middle class voters in the coastal states that are safe Democratic anyway.
For example, Trump got 47.5% in Michigan and Romney only got 44.7%.
In California though Romney got 37.1% but Trump only got 31.6%.
He did significantly worse with black and other ethnic minority voters. That’s why he is trying to suppress their vote in 2020.
Wrong.
Trump won 8% of the black vote, Romney only won 6% of the black vote.
Trump also won 29% of the Hispanic vote, Romney only won 27% of the Hispanic vote.
I meant that Obama did significantly better amongst the black and ethnic minority vote. The thread started with a discussion of Obama/Trump before you, as is your habit, moved the goalposts
And Obama will not be on the ballot in 2020 as he was not in 2016 when Trump won
Mores the pity.
Obama is a thoroughly decent man who tried to do his best as President. He should not have accepted the Nobel peace prize though.
Briefing after the Barclay/Barnier meeting and then Ambos briefing is much cooler than yesterday - but not negative. It sounds like there has been progress but less than perhaps hyped yesterday.
If they go into the tunnel then the chances of a deal are greater than 50%. Perhaps much greater. Because the impetus is all with the deal-makers and the potential for blame and chaos, if it goes wrong, is much increased.
High stakes game that they have to win.
But can Boris win round the Commons? Will Labour and the Lib Dems really shoot down a deal approved by Ireland AND the EU? For what? What possible deal could be better, when we have tried everything else, to the point of nervous collapse?
Big_G_NorthWales said: "If Boris pulls this off he gets my vote and I will rejoin the party"
It`s sentiments like this that motivate Corbyn to do all in his power to stop this passing the Commons. If we leave by 31/10, or shortly afterwards, with a deal then Corbyn`s goose is cooked.
I believe that ultimately the weakness of liberals is that they see politics as a conflict between ideologies, with people acting as their ideologies' mostly good-faith representatives. In reality, politics is a conflict between people (and their interests).
Perhaps this is me suffering that weakness, but I disagree. I think the irrationalists are quite few in numbers. The irrationalists comprise fascists, portion of those who self-describe as communist, and people whose political beliefs stem unfiltered from some kind of extremist religious beliefs: fundamentalist christians, muslims and jews are prominent examples in the west. Everybody else normally tries to ground their arguments in rationality: X is best because history/science shows us that Y. Their views are, in principle, falsifiable.
I am really heartened by the example of the collapse of the Labour party in Scotland. Not as a thing to be celebrated in itself -- that is subjective -- but in that it demonstrates that huge numbers of people are capable of abandoning a party over a single electoral cycle. That means those people are thinking. The 35% who switched from Labour to other parties between 2010 and 2015 is evidence of an absolute floor in the number of people willing to change their minds. Naturally, the churn will be even greater than that, since some people will have switched to Labour from other parties.
Finalising a Brexit deal will be like landing a burning glider on a battlefield.
It'll be hold on to your hats time. If Boris lands it there'll be a few people dead on the ground and a few supporters inside the glider either missing a head or shot to pieces.
The chances of being blown out of the air before getting to the ground 50/50 at best.
We need a brave ballsy pilot. Is Boris that man?
This is precisely why he got the job. Because he may just be that man. He has a lot of self-confidence, he can be quite charming, he's psychotically ambitious. He's also quirky and capricious, but these can be advantages in dangerous times.
If there is anyone in the Tory party who could land that glider (or indeed anyone in UK politics) it is him. Plus he has the unique skill-set of being trusted by the leading Leavers and liked by Leave voters. He can bring them with him.
Big_G_NorthWales said: "If Boris pulls this off he gets my vote and I will rejoin the party"
It`s sentiments like this that motivate Corbyn to do all in his power to stop this passing the Commons. If we leave by 31/10, or shortly afterwards, with a deal then Corbyn`s goose is cooked.
Have you seen the polls? Corbyn's goose is cooked either way.
Finalising a Brexit deal will be like landing a burning glider on a battlefield.
It'll be hold on to your hats time. If Boris lands it there'll be a few people dead on the ground and a few supporters inside the glider either missing a head or shot to pieces.
The chances of being blown out of the air before getting to the ground 50/50 at best.
We need a brave ballsy pilot. Is Boris that man?
This is precisely why he got the job. Because he may just be that man. He has a lot of self-confidence, he can be quite charming, he's psychotically ambitious. He's also quirky and capricious, but these can be advantages in dangerous times.
If there is anyone in the Tory party who could land that glider (or indeed anyone in UK politics) it is him. Plus he has the unique skill-set of being trusted by the leading Leavers and liked by Leave voters. He can bring them with him.
Still a fucking difficult job.
Notice the contrast in Photo ops with Johnson and other leaders in comparison to with T May. There will often be a smile, the charisma dynamic may well be important.
Briefing after the Barclay/Barnier meeting and then Ambos briefing is much cooler than yesterday - but not negative. It sounds like there has been progress but less than perhaps hyped yesterday.
If they go into the tunnel then the chances of a deal are greater than 50%. Perhaps much greater. Because the impetus is all with the deal-makers and the potential for blame and chaos, if it goes wrong, is much increased.
High stakes game that they have to win.
But can Boris win round the Commons? Will Labour and the Lib Dems really shoot down a deal approved by Ireland AND the EU? For what? What possible deal could be better, when we have tried everything else, to the point of nervous collapse?
May's deal was approved by Ireland and the EU.
Yes, but back then we didn't have a PM happy to do No Deal, and an EU close to collapsing talks, and an pending election which Boris would likely win by a storm, anyway.
I can see why the Lib Dems will vote against, but quite a few Labour MPs will want the whole horror show done, then go back to domestic politics. If this debate drags on into the next decade, the country is in deep deep shit.
I believe that ultimately the weakness of liberals is that they see politics as a conflict between ideologies, with people acting as their ideologies' mostly good-faith representatives. In reality, politics is a conflict between people (and their interests).
Perhaps this is me suffering that weakness, but I disagree. I think the irrationalists are quite few in numbers. The irrationalists comprise fascists, portion of those who self-describe as communist, and people whose political beliefs stem unfiltered from some kind of extremist religious beliefs: fundamentalist christians, muslims and jews are prominent examples in the west. Everybody else normally tries to ground their arguments in rationality: X is best because history/science shows us that Y. Their views are, in principle, falsifiable.
I am really heartened by the example of the collapse of the Labour party in Scotland. Not as a thing to be celebrated in itself -- that is subjective -- but in that it demonstrates that huge numbers of people are capable of abandoning a party over a single electoral cycle. That means those people are thinking. The 35% who switched from Labour to other parties between 2010 and 2015 is evidence of an absolute floor in the number of people willing to change their minds. Naturally, the churn will be even greater than that, since some people will have switched to Labour from other parties.
So basically the only rational people are secular, liberal Remainers apparently.
Big_G_NorthWales said: "If Boris pulls this off he gets my vote and I will rejoin the party"
It`s sentiments like this that motivate Corbyn to do all in his power to stop this passing the Commons. If we leave by 31/10, or shortly afterwards, with a deal then Corbyn`s goose is cooked.
At which point Boris can say: "Look, I got a deal - Ireland was happy, the EU was happy, my party was happy - then Jeremy bloody Corbyn torpedoed it for his own selfish political gain!"
I suspect both Leavers and Remainers would crucify Corbyn in that scenario, and rightly so.
The 27 European Union countries staying on together after Brexit authorised their negotiator Michel Barnier on Friday to go into another round of intense and secret negotiations with Britain in a bid to get a deal, two senior diplomatic sources said.
“It’s a tunnel with a very small light at the end of it,” one of the diplomats said, indicating there was not too much hope on the EU side that a divorce deal could be sealed before Britain is due to leave the EU on Oct. 31.
Also, if Boris manages to get some kind of sunset clause in the NI only backstop that would be a huge, huge difference to the May deal and not leave the country trapped as a rule taker indefinitely.
Still not enough for the DUP though most likely, so again he needs Labour votes for his Deal or a Tory majority at the next general election
Lets hope these tunnel negotiations arent simply about another crazy boris infrastructure scheme!
We have to remember this is all dependent on building a bridge across the Irish Sea ...
I have just returned from Prince Edward Island in Canada and the confederation bridge is 13 kilometers long across the Northumberland Straights that experienciences all kinds of weather including ice flows but is a very effective bridge, though it cost over one billion dollars and has a life span of 100 years
Finalising a Brexit deal will be like landing a burning glider on a battlefield.
It'll be hold on to your hats time. If Boris lands it there'll be a few people dead on the ground and a few supporters inside the glider either missing a head or shot to pieces.
The chances of being blown out of the air before getting to the ground 50/50 at best.
We need a brave ballsy pilot. Is Boris that man?
This is precisely why he got the job. Because he may just be that man. He has a lot of self-confidence, he can be quite charming, he's psychotically ambitious. He's also quirky and capricious, but these can be advantages in dangerous times.
If there is anyone in the Tory party who could land that glider (or indeed anyone in UK politics) it is him. Plus he has the unique skill-set of being trusted by the leading Leavers and liked by Leave voters. He can bring them with him.
Still a fucking difficult job.
Notice the contrast in Photo ops with Johnson and other leaders in comparison to with T May. There will often be a smile, the charisma dynamic may well be important.
Of course!
Are we really so driven by enlightened logic that we dismiss the power of charisma? Don’t we all have friends who we let get away with more than others because they’re charming, or we just like them more?
It will be interesting to find out who is the real brains behind this progress. It seems unlikely to be boris or cummings.
Why not?
Cummings was never a no dealer.
I'm impressed by how little of substance has come out from either side so far.
Makes it hard for the Shouty McShoutyface crowd on both sides (if there are only two) to do what they love best, stamping feet and shouting Traitor! Death Cult! or whatever floats their boat.
Philip_Thompson said: "Have you seen the polls? Corbyn's goose is cooked either way."
I disagree. If Boris fails the BXP will destroy them in the next GE and the result will be Corbyn as PM with a supply and confidence agreement with Libdems and SNP, and there then will be a second referendum.
Big_G_NorthWales said: "If Boris pulls this off he gets my vote and I will rejoin the party"
It`s sentiments like this that motivate Corbyn to do all in his power to stop this passing the Commons. If we leave by 31/10, or shortly afterwards, with a deal then Corbyn`s goose is cooked.
So, party before country then? Exactly what Labour accuse the tories of.
Feeling more confident than I was on my bets that we will get legally-binding changes to the WDA.
Do we even know what is up for negotiation - Is it a change to the section of the WA dealing with the back stop? Was there some talk of a FTA?
This seems very early for an agreement, it is nowhere near 23.59!
But I guess there has to be time for the bust up, negative briefing and then reconciliation.
It’s suggested it’s a version of the Customs Partnership put forward by May but only applying to NI .
The EU didn’t like the all UK one but because this would deal with a much lower volume of goods then they might go for it.
It also allows the government to say NI has left the Customs Union, it also could be supported by the DUP.
The Consent Mechanism might be a bit more difficult for them , they won’t be allowed their veto .
That’s more likely to now be a default remain in EU alignment with Stormont voting to leave that rather than voting to keep it going .
This means effectively that it won’t ever happen .
But it also means Irish reunification becomes much less likely, as Ulster will be in a very sweet spot - privileged access to the UK AND the EU - which it won't want to alter. Will the DUP be clever enough to recognise this?!
I believe that ultimately the weakness of liberals is that they see politics as a conflict between ideologies, with people acting as their ideologies' mostly good-faith representatives. In reality, politics is a conflict between people (and their interests).
Perhaps this is me suffering that weakness, but I disagree. I think the irrationalists are quite few in numbers. The irrationalists comprise fascists, portion of those who self-describe as communist, and people whose political beliefs stem unfiltered from some kind of extremist religious beliefs: fundamentalist christians, muslims and jews are prominent examples in the west. Everybody else normally tries to ground their arguments in rationality: X is best because history/science shows us that Y. Their views are, in principle, falsifiable.
I am really heartened by the example of the collapse of the Labour party in Scotland. Not as a thing to be celebrated in itself -- that is subjective -- but in that it demonstrates that huge numbers of people are capable of abandoning a party over a single electoral cycle. That means those people are thinking. The 35% who switched from Labour to other parties between 2010 and 2015 is evidence of an absolute floor in the number of people willing to change their minds. Naturally, the churn will be even greater than that, since some people will have switched to Labour from other parties.
So basically the only rational people are secular, liberal Remainers apparently.
Utter, total, offensive and stupid bollocks from you. I'm saying the opposite. I'm saying the irrationalists are tiny in number. Most Remainers, most Brexists, most Labour, Tory, Lib Dem, Green, SNP, Plaid Cymru, Sinn Fein, and DUP are rational.
Judy Rudd an amateur genealogy researcher in south east Queensland , was doing some personal work on her own family tree. She discovered that ex-Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s great-great uncle, Remus Rudd, was hanged for horse stealing and train robbery in Melbourne in 1889. Both Judy and Kevin Rudd share this common ancestor. The only known photograph of Uncle Remus shows him standing on the gallows at the Melbourne Gaol.
On the back of the picture Judy obtained during her research is this inscription: 'Remus Rudd horse thief, sent to Melbourne Gaol 1885, escaped 1887. Robbed the Melbourne-Geelong train six times. Caught by Victoria Police Force, convicted and hanged in 1889.' So Judy recently e-mailed ex-Prime Minister Rudd for information about their great-great uncle, Remus Rudd.
Believe it or not, Kevin Rudd's staff sent back the following biographical sketch for her genealogy research: "Remus Rudd was famous in Victoria during the mid to late 1800s. His business empire grew to include acquisition of valuable equestrian assets and intimate dealings with the Melbourne-Geelong Railroad. Beginning in 1883, he devoted several years of his life to government service, finally taking leave to resume his dealings with the railroad. In 1887, he was a key player in a vital investigation run by the Victoria Police Force. In 1889, Remus passed away during an important civic function held in his honour when the platform upon which he was standing collapsed."
superb
Needless to say, I stole it!
I really wanted that to be true. Sadly it is a hoax.
I believe that ultimately the weakness of liberals is that they see politics as a conflict between ideologies, with people acting as their ideologies' mostly good-faith representatives. In reality, politics is a conflict between people (and their interests).
Perhaps this is me suffering that weakness, but I disagree. I think the irrationalists are quite few in numbers. The irrationalists comprise fascists, portion of those who self-describe as communist, and people whose political beliefs stem unfiltered from some kind of extremist religious beliefs: fundamentalist christians, muslims and jews are prominent examples in the west. Everybody else normally tries to ground their arguments in rationality: X is best because history/science shows us that Y. Their views are, in principle, falsifiable.
I am really heartened by the example of the collapse of the Labour party in Scotland. Not as a thing to be celebrated in itself -- that is subjective -- but in that it demonstrates that huge numbers of people are capable of abandoning a party over a single electoral cycle. That means those people are thinking. The 35% who switched from Labour to other parties between 2010 and 2015 is evidence of an absolute floor in the number of people willing to change their minds. Naturally, the churn will be even greater than that, since some people will have switched to Labour from other parties.
So basically the only rational people are secular, liberal Remainers apparently.
Rather clever, but very polarising. On that brief glimpse, she's much less annoying than Hillary
Is anyone polarisable not yet polarised ?
Point is she would make Trump look the lumbering walrus-wit he is in any presidential debate. And she has the timing to deliver a punchline that Hillary never did.
Hillary won all 3 post debate polls, she still lost the election as they made no difference to Trump's base in Midwestern swing states
What base? The base that voted for Romney at almost exactly the same rate?
Missing Obama voters is the key, not cracking the "always voted Republican all their life block" .
Trump did better with working class voters and poor voters in the key swing states that counted in the Midwest and South, Trump did worse than Romney with upper middle class voters in the coastal states that are safe Democratic anyway.
For example, Trump got 47.5% in Michigan and Romney only got 44.7%.
In California though Romney got 37.1% but Trump only got 31.6%.
He did significantly worse with black and other ethnic minority voters. That’s why he is trying to suppress their vote in 2020.
Wrong.
Trump won 8% of the black vote, Romney only won 6% of the black vote.
Trump also won 29% of the Hispanic vote, Romney only won 27% of the Hispanic vote.
I meant that Obama did significantly better amongst the black and ethnic minority vote. The thread started with a discussion of Obama/Trump before you, as is your habit, moved the goalposts
And Obama will not be on the ballot in 2020 as he was not in 2016 when Trump won
Mores the pity.
Obama is a thoroughly decent man who tried to do his best as President. He should not have accepted the Nobel peace prize though.
The award was outrageous and he should indeed have declined it.
Finalising a Brexit deal will be like landing a burning glider on a battlefield.
It'll be hold on to your hats time. If Boris lands it there'll be a few people dead on the ground and a few supporters inside the glider either missing a head or shot to pieces.
The chances of being blown out of the air before getting to the ground 50/50 at best.
We need a brave ballsy pilot. Is Boris that man?
This is precisely why he got the job. Because he may just be that man. He has a lot of self-confidence, he can be quite charming, he's psychotically ambitious. He's also quirky and capricious, but these can be advantages in dangerous times.
If there is anyone in the Tory party who could land that glider (or indeed anyone in UK politics) it is him. Plus he has the unique skill-set of being trusted by the leading Leavers and liked by Leave voters. He can bring them with him.
Still a fucking difficult job.
Notice the contrast in Photo ops with Johnson and other leaders in comparison to with T May. There will often be a smile, the charisma dynamic may well be important.
Charisma matters. Interesting to note the reports that yesterday's meeting between Johnson and Varadkar began with only the two of them in the room for the first 90 minutes before aides got involved afterwards.
Can you imagine May representing the UK one-on-one for 90 minutes? I doubt we would have had yesterday's breakthrough with her doing that.
Feeling more confident than I was on my bets that we will get legally-binding changes to the WDA.
Do we even know what is up for negotiation - Is it a change to the section of the WA dealing with the back stop? Was there some talk of a FTA?
This seems very early for an agreement, it is nowhere near 23.59!
But I guess there has to be time for the bust up, negative briefing and then reconciliation.
It’s suggested it’s a version of the Customs Partnership put forward by May but only applying to NI .
The EU didn’t like the all UK one but because this would deal with a much lower volume of goods then they might go for it.
It also allows the government to say NI has left the Customs Union, it also could be supported by the DUP.
The Consent Mechanism might be a bit more difficult for them , they won’t be allowed their veto .
That’s more likely to now be a default remain in EU alignment with Stormont voting to leave that rather than voting to keep it going .
This means effectively that it won’t ever happen .
But it also means Irish reunification becomes much less likely, as Ulster will be in a very sweet spot - privileged access to the UK AND the EU - which it won't want to alter. Will the DUP be clever enough to recognise this?!
You’d hope that they might see the obvious , but who knows ! They get the best of both worlds .
Comments
Slightly panicked phone call to my Mum, who was in the bank on St. Ann's Square and completely oblivious, thankfully.
They will mostly face pro-Remain majorities in their CLPs (and potentially their voters if not their whole electorate), some of whom may be seduced by the "It's not a No Deal" relief but who will probably mostly want to hang on for a referendum. There is also the specific Labour objection that the social and environmental guarantees are apparently being explicitly junked, which is a Big Red Line for most of us - a Labour MP who wants to sign up for Britain-as-Singapore is a unicorn-like rarity.
But the wish not to be the block to a deal will be strong. I'd think that they are winnable (probably in a group rather than the odd straggler - safety in numbers) if Boris gives them some reason to think that they're not voting for a mad dash for a low-tax low-regulation pirate state.
Psychologically, Boris has that to his advantage too. He can convincingly use the threat that if they vote against him, that'll be it. Because for all their belligerence and bravado the ERG camp have nobody else with Boris's appeal.
Looks like the police have got him, anyway. We hope.
Not going to happen. Corbyn`s worst nightmare is the tories succesfully getting a deal through. He will exert massive pressure on those Labour MPs to recant from voting for any deal. Some stalwats (Hoey, Mann) will defy him but others will cave.
Judy Rudd an amateur genealogy researcher in south east Queensland , was doing some personal work on her own family tree.
She discovered that ex-Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s great-great uncle, Remus Rudd, was hanged for horse stealing and train robbery in Melbourne in 1889. Both Judy and Kevin Rudd share this common ancestor.
The only known photograph of Uncle Remus shows him standing on the gallows at the Melbourne Gaol.
On the back of the picture Judy obtained during her research is this inscription:
'Remus Rudd horse thief, sent to Melbourne Gaol 1885, escaped 1887. Robbed the Melbourne-Geelong train six times.
Caught by Victoria Police Force, convicted and hanged in 1889.'
So Judy recently e-mailed ex-Prime Minister Rudd for information about their great-great uncle, Remus Rudd.
Believe it or not, Kevin Rudd's staff sent back the following biographical sketch for her genealogy research:
"Remus Rudd was famous in Victoria during the mid to late 1800s. His business empire grew to include acquisition of valuable equestrian assets and intimate dealings with the Melbourne-Geelong Railroad.
Beginning in 1883, he devoted several years of his life to government service, finally taking leave to resume his dealings with the railroad.
In 1887, he was a key player in a vital investigation run by the Victoria Police Force. In 1889, Remus passed away during an important civic function held in his honour when the platform upon which he was standing collapsed."
Which brings us back to the Johnson pledge to leave by 31st October.
The EU is a rules based organization, everything has to be legally watertight before they sign off .
Even if you agree with proposals these have to be translated into legal text , then they have to go to 27 other EU members .
This won’t happen overnight . I don’t see how this all can be done by next Thursday especially as the so called tunnel negotiations haven’t even started .
They HAVE been worn down, They sound exhausted and acceptant. The fight has gone, and they are scared Brexit will be taken away altogether.
I doubt more than a handful of Tories will rebel, if Boris delivers. The key is the DUP and Labour.
superb
So either enough Labour MPs vote for it to get it over the line or we have to wait for a Tory majority to get a Brexit Deal with the EU without a confirmatory referendum
I cannot ignore how badly my side of the argument has lost that part of public debate when considering the risks of acquiescing to a hard Brexit compared to no deal.
Perhaps there are MPs made of sterner stuff than I who will steer us through to calmer waters. If they are to do so successfully they need to up their game.
It's a oui
On the numbers for a Commons vote you might well be right - I think the Benn Act has made it much more likely that the Redwoods of this world will support a deal. Sufficient to pass it? I'm sceptical that the DUP will come on board, so probably not. But we shall see.
And it would now look ridiculous if he pulled out of the negotiations because of his obsession with the 31 st October.
The EU can rightly say he left it so late to put forward his proposals and even though there’s been some progress there’s not enough time , please ask for an extension .
It probably wouldn't work, but it's probably their best shot.
HoC will i am sure find a way to object and vote it down.
EU - UK enter tunnel negotiations
Fingers crossed and toes as well
https://twitter.com/DanielBoffey/status/1182616333420244992
High stakes game that they have to win.
But can Boris win round the Commons? Will Labour and the Lib Dems really shoot down a deal approved by Ireland AND the EU? For what? What possible deal could be better, when we have tried everything else, to the point of nervous collapse?
It'll be hold on to your hats time. If Boris lands it there'll be a few people dead on the ground and a few supporters inside the glider either missing a head or shot to pieces.
The chances of being blown out of the air before getting to the ground 50/50 at best.
We need a brave ballsy pilot. Is Boris that man?
HYUFD; don't throw stones in a glass house, aye?
If we get to an FTA negotiation, does the final agreement have to get through Parliament, too? If so, the incentive to not go for an election for the opposition parties will be huge.
This seems very early for an agreement, it is nowhere near 23.59!
But I guess there has to be time for the bust up, negative briefing and then reconciliation.
It`s sentiments like this that motivate Corbyn to do all in his power to stop this passing the Commons. If we leave by 31/10, or shortly afterwards, with a deal then Corbyn`s goose is cooked.
Everybody else normally tries to ground their arguments in rationality: X is best because history/science shows us that Y. Their views are, in principle, falsifiable.
I am really heartened by the example of the collapse of the Labour party in Scotland. Not as a thing to be celebrated in itself -- that is subjective -- but in that it demonstrates that huge numbers of people are capable of abandoning a party over a single electoral cycle. That means those people are thinking. The 35% who switched from Labour to other parties between 2010 and 2015 is evidence of an absolute floor in the number of people willing to change their minds. Naturally, the churn will be even greater than that, since some people will have switched to Labour from other parties.
If there is anyone in the Tory party who could land that glider (or indeed anyone in UK politics) it is him. Plus he has the unique skill-set of being trusted by the leading Leavers and liked by Leave voters. He can bring them with him.
Still a fucking difficult job.
Cummings was never a no dealer.
I can see why the Lib Dems will vote against, but quite a few Labour MPs will want the whole horror show done, then go back to domestic politics. If this debate drags on into the next decade, the country is in deep deep shit.
The EU didn’t like the all UK one but because this would deal with a much lower volume of goods then they might go for it.
It also allows the government to say NI has left the Customs Union, it also could be supported by the DUP.
The Consent Mechanism might be a bit more difficult for them , they won’t be allowed their veto .
That’s more likely to now be a default remain in EU alignment with Stormont voting to leave that rather than voting to keep it going .
This means effectively that it won’t ever happen .
I suspect both Leavers and Remainers would crucify Corbyn in that scenario, and rightly so.
“It’s a tunnel with a very small light at the end of it,” one of the diplomats said, indicating there was not too much hope on the EU side that a divorce deal could be sealed before Britain is due to leave the EU on Oct. 31.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-intense/eu-and-uk-to-go-into-more-intense-brexit-negotiations-diplomats-idUKKBN1WQ1IT
Evil either way.
Are we really so driven by enlightened logic that we dismiss the power of charisma? Don’t we all have friends who we let get away with more than others because they’re charming, or we just like them more?
https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1182608462095753216
https://twitter.com/georgegalloway/status/1182614135714058243
Makes it hard for the Shouty McShoutyface crowd on both sides (if there are only two) to do what they love best, stamping feet and shouting Traitor! Death Cult! or whatever floats their boat.
I disagree. If Boris fails the BXP will destroy them in the next GE and the result will be Corbyn as PM with a supply and confidence agreement with Libdems and SNP, and there then will be a second referendum.
You, however, are a tit.
Can you imagine May representing the UK one-on-one for 90 minutes? I doubt we would have had yesterday's breakthrough with her doing that.
https://twitter.com/georgegalloway/status/1182616440765140992