You know how this week's Markit numbers were bad in the US. The ISM numbers are even worse:
"But the details of Tuesday's ISM report were ugly, with new orders, production and employment sub-indices all contracting last month. New export orders shrunk for the second consecutive month and fell to their lowest since April 2009, when global trade was hit following the financial crisis."
And the figures from the UK, Japan and the Eurozone aren't any better.
Blow the place up build a new one in Birmingham with all mod cons in a non confrontational semi circle this is bloody ridiculous
+1
no, fuck it, +2
+3
If I was a Unionist.
Which I’m not.
If there was a (more) proportional system of allocating seats which meant that parties would have to negotiate with the other side more often, not only would we get better laws we would also get less of this mess.
I really don't understand what the filibuster is going to achieve from the government's point of view. What's to stop this bill being passed after parliament returns next month?
The final European Union Council meeting before Halloween is 17/10, it wouldn't be possible to pass the law before then. They could pass it after that but that would then rely upon the EU setting up an emergency meeting.
They would just have a phone meeting, it's not that big a deal.
If you're a Leaver, but you generally liked Mrs May's deal, and you want to leave the EU in an orderly fashion, who do you vote for?
Tricky one!
Obviously there isn't an answer, but FWIW, taken at face value (not much of that around at the moment) the present government's policy is, roughly:
oppose the backstop but don't talk about any other aspects of TMs deal get some sort of alteration to the backstop, which can be sold as a reversal and victory win an election on October 15th on basis of leave with that deal or if necessary without one use the last two weeks of October to force an orderly and moderate deal out of EU.
You have to get behind a lot of hype and, if Mr Meeks is correct, be prepared to buy a bridge from him, to get to this point; but no other party offers anything half as clear and coherent by way of a deal. Shame no-one believes a word they say, and not without reason. But for those who still want to leave it remains the best (only?) chance. Which is why I think for the moment the share price of Remain is rising a bit.
The problem I have is this:
If Mr Johnson was really serious about replacing the backstop, he would be publicly talking about the alternative. He would be making the EU sound unreasonable to people in Ireland and beyond.
Here's the solution, he'd say. Please EU, do the right thing for the Irish and accept it.
Instead he tells us there are "intensive" negotiations going on, which is (I'm afraid) bullshit.
Sounds like you will shortly be able to see if your MP votes yes or no the WA so should be an easy decision whether to back them or sack them.
I really don't understand what the filibuster is going to achieve from the government's point of view. What's to stop this bill being passed after parliament returns next month?
The final European Union Council meeting before Halloween is 17/10, it wouldn't be possible to pass the law before then. They could pass it after that but that would then rely upon the EU setting up an emergency meeting.
Just conceivably they might be prepared to do that.
Blow the place up build a new one in Birmingham with all mod cons in a non confrontational semi circle this is bloody ridiculous
Colour me skeptical that a 'non confrontational semi circle' makes a blind bit of difference. The US House of Representatives is legendary for its non-confrontational style?
Blow the place up build a new one in Birmingham with all mod cons in a non confrontational semi circle this is bloody ridiculous
Colour me skeptical that a 'non confrontational semi circle' makes a blind bit of difference. The US House of Representatives is legendary for its non-confrontational style?
Damn sight better than being two sword lengths apart and only recognizing the concept of two parties. It would also be cheaper than making westminster fit for purpose.
Anecdote alert. Was mentioning to a relative about being on the electoral register, their reply: What's the point? The one time I voted and MPs just betrayed us, they should all be arrested for treason.
I think I'll avoid further Brexit talk in the household, just for the sake of harmony.
Should point out to them that there was another vote the year after...
I really don't understand what the filibuster is going to achieve from the government's point of view. What's to stop this bill being passed after parliament returns next month?
The final European Union Council meeting before Halloween is 17/10, it wouldn't be possible to pass the law before then. They could pass it after that but that would then rely upon the EU setting up an emergency meeting.
There is no need for a physical EUCO meeting to extend A50 if the 28 governments are agreed. Other legal avenues exist.
Anecdote alert. Was mentioning to a relative about being on the electoral register, their reply: What's the point? The one time I voted and MPs just betrayed us, they should all be arrested for treason.
I think I'll avoid further Brexit talk in the household, just for the sake of harmony.
Everyone needs to calm down a bit. Talk of treason is not good.
Anecdote alert. Was mentioning to a relative about being on the electoral register, their reply: What's the point? The one time I voted and MPs just betrayed us, they should all be arrested for treason.
I think I'll avoid further Brexit talk in the household, just for the sake of harmony.
Should point out to them that there was another vote the year after...
Funnily enough they had never voted for anything until Brexit, and said they would not vote again, but did vote in 2017, but they seem pretty set against it now. Still, their first vote at the age of 59 is something.
You know how this week's Markit numbers were bad in the US. The ISM numbers are even worse:
"But the details of Tuesday's ISM report were ugly, with new orders, production and employment sub-indices all contracting last month. New export orders shrunk for the second consecutive month and fell to their lowest since April 2009, when global trade was hit following the financial crisis."
And the figures from the UK, Japan and the Eurozone aren't any better.
Time to sell equities?
If so what currencies to hold the cash in?
Swiss Francs. Or (more realistically) the country in which you intend to spend most money.
Did not the government promise some weeks ago that if its opponents were going to pull out the stops with arcane procedural trickery they would do the same?
We have been in the realm of 'legal vs reasonable' actions for quite some time.
As a practical question, couldn't anyone have provided tellers? I assume Labour were against it too.
Cummings's on the ERG's attitude to May's efforts :
"Those of you who think you can get away with promising to respect the referendum result then abandoning this promise are in the ‘pirate’ category. Those of you in the narcissist-delusional subset of the ERG, who have spent the last three years scrambling for the 8.10am Today slot while spouting gibberish about trade and the law across SW1 — i.e. exactly the contemptible behaviour that led to your enforced marginalisation during the referendum and your attempt to destroy Vote Leave — you are also in the pirate category. You were useful idiots for Remain during the campaign and with every piece of bullshit from Bill Cash et al you have helped only Remain for three years."
Blow the place up build a new one in Birmingham with all mod cons in a non confrontational semi circle this is bloody ridiculous
+1
no, fuck it, +2
+3
If I was a Unionist.
Which I’m not.
If there was a (more) proportional system of allocating seats which meant that parties would have to negotiate with the other side more often, not only would we get better laws we would also get less of this mess.
Just for a short time, things seemed to be making a bit of sense. Johnson's way out was an election, and if he won it on a "Do or Die" policy that would give him some political cover if things turned out badly. And of course, he could repeal whatever bill was passed now in good time to leave on 31 October.
But if this bill is filibustered, he won't get the election, and most likely next month parliament will prevent him from leaving on 31 October, but will enforce an extension. Difficult to make sense of.
You know how this week's Markit numbers were bad in the US. The ISM numbers are even worse:
"But the details of Tuesday's ISM report were ugly, with new orders, production and employment sub-indices all contracting last month. New export orders shrunk for the second consecutive month and fell to their lowest since April 2009, when global trade was hit following the financial crisis."
And the figures from the UK, Japan and the Eurozone aren't any better.
Time to sell equities?
If so what currencies to hold the cash in?
Gold?
Difficult to buy real gold and difficult to hold. Also conversion costs and liable to fluctuation. Buy at wrong time and you lose a lot. However, its a good hedge against inflation and is internationally acceptable (tho difficult to transport). It's the classic refugee money store, the reason why gypsies and Del-boys have gold rings: it's what you have if you need to get outta town fast before the Tsarist police rock up and kill your granny. Only buy as a long-term investment and/or you are expecting prolonged inflation or devaluation of currency.
Conversely you can buy gold options or speculate on gold vaue. IG Index (Investors Gold Index) was set up for specifically that purpose.
If the Lords talk out the extension bill - as looks likely - we are back to there being a No Deal Brexit on 31st October, aren't we? But now without Johnson being able to call an election in advance of it. I am not sure that is an ideal outcome for his chances of winning an election when one does come.
Why not?
He would have kept his promise. The brexit party vote will all go to him.
I've consistently been against the Lords, I trust the #FBPE who were previously cheering on its every move did so out of a principled love for the institution:
by Pulpstar · August 27 I hope the pro HoL lot are borne out of a genuine love of it as an upper chamber with all its imperfections rather than anything to do with political current convenience.
Gardenwalker by Gardenwalker · July 11 I like the HoL, and I get annoyed at the idea of its abolition or its replacement by an elected body
Blow the place up build a new one in Birmingham with all mod cons in a non confrontational semi circle this is bloody ridiculous
+1
no, fuck it, +2
Yes, because a semi circle solves it all.
I mean, politics is so collaborative and non-confrontational in Edinburgh. Getting that extra 60 degrees of angle on your opponents and a slightly sore neck makes all the difference.
@Pulpstar - Yes, all the way through this the suspicion has been that the Lords could stop Brexit and now it looks like they might make it happen. As you say, it's not a good look either way.
The Lords can remove the Kinnock amendment and then MPs will get to vote on whether to accept that removal. But in any case the Kinnock amendment is of very little practical impact. Prorogation means we could have had MV4 if the government wanted to and the deal Kinnock refers to literally doesn't exist. So what's gained ? A guarenteed vote on something that doesn't exist. Kinnock was a press release sending a positional message which may accidentally become law.
If Parliament is prorogued without an election having been called, the entire Cummings/Johnson strategy lies in shreds. He needs an election before No Deal.
You know how this week's Markit numbers were bad in the US. The ISM numbers are even worse:
"But the details of Tuesday's ISM report were ugly, with new orders, production and employment sub-indices all contracting last month. New export orders shrunk for the second consecutive month and fell to their lowest since April 2009, when global trade was hit following the financial crisis."
And the figures from the UK, Japan and the Eurozone aren't any better.
Time to sell equities?
If so what currencies to hold the cash in?
Gold?
Difficult to buy real gold and difficult to hold. Also conversion costs and liable to fluctuation. Buy at wrong time and you lose a lot. ...
It's not difficult to buy it and have it held in a vault. The price is certainly very volatile though.
If Parliament is prorogued without an election having been called, the entire Cummings/Johnson strategy lies in shreds. He needs an election before No Deal.
But do you even think he'll get No Deal if there isn't an election?
Blow the place up build a new one in Birmingham with all mod cons in a non confrontational semi circle this is bloody ridiculous
+1
no, fuck it, +2
Yes, because a semi circle solves it all.
I mean, politics is so collaborative and non-confrontational in Edinburgh. Getting that extra 60 degrees of angle on your opponents and a slightly sore neck makes all the difference.
It's /less/ confrontational. Westminster is an embarrassment with all the baying. It's like a zoo. Who thrives in that kind of environment? Pyschos, that's who.
If the Lords talk out the extension bill - as looks likely - we are back to there being a No Deal Brexit on 31st October, aren't we? But now without Johnson being able to call an election in advance of it. I am not sure that is an ideal outcome for his chances of winning an election when one does come.
Why not?
He would have kept his promise. The brexit party vote will all go to him.
An election after No Deal has kicked in will be very different to one when it is an abstract concept. Peopl ewill be living the consequences. And if no election is called in the next few days, it will be takiing place well into November at the earliest, but most likely in 2020.
Just for a short time, things seemed to be making a bit of sense. Johnson's way out was an election, and if he won it on a "Do or Die" policy that would give him some political cover if things turned out badly. And of course, he could repeal whatever bill was passed now in good time to leave on 31 October.
But if this bill is filibustered, he won't get the election, and most likely next month parliament will prevent him from leaving on 31 October, but will enforce an extension. Difficult to make sense of.
Boris does not want no deal on 31 October.
If you look at his actions there is no other rational explanation beyond extreme incompetence.
1. We have not done any serious preparations for no deal 2. He is willing to break any constitutional rules 3. He could have chosen to prorogue parliament without announcement mid October to mid November, that would have actually delivered no deal 4. He chose to prorogue parliament, giving time both before and after for his opponents to strike. He knew this would still be unpalatable and push some to the edge. The only explanation for that is to provoke. 5. He organised, then cancelled meetings at short notice with the rebel Tories. The only explanation for that is to provoke. 6. JRM was sent out to provoke yesterday. 7. The point of the provocation must be to get an election and extension, he is losing capital with one nation tory MPs for something important 8. They have not negotiated anything with the EU
Points 3 & 4 are most important, he could have delivered no deal given his willingness to break constitutional norms. He chose not to. But then chose to still do a half hearted prorgogation that achieves nothing bar provocation and dates that make it easy for parliament to extend. What possible reason is there for that?
Just for a short time, things seemed to be making a bit of sense. Johnson's way out was an election, and if he won it on a "Do or Die" policy that would give him some political cover if things turned out badly. And of course, he could repeal whatever bill was passed now in good time to leave on 31 October.
But if this bill is filibustered, he won't get the election, and most likely next month parliament will prevent him from leaving on 31 October, but will enforce an extension. Difficult to make sense of.
Except that getting to prorogation places enormous time pressure on MPs. Perhaps the intention is to get them to compromise: give Boris his election, perhaps in exchange for a one-line bill to fix the date for it on October 15th?
If the Commons comes back after prorogation and tries to put the No Deal legislation through again then they still need to get it through the Commons, past the wreckers in the Lords for a second time, and then Boris Johnson can run the clock down a bit more by challenging the legislation in the courts. Finally, as a last resort, he could simply resign to avoid having to go to Brussels, leaving the Commons with about five minutes to find a majority to vote confidence in a successor.
They might well agree to compromise with Johnson, in exchange for not risking simply running out of time and, thus, Brexit by default.
Blow the place up build a new one in Birmingham with all mod cons in a non confrontational semi circle this is bloody ridiculous
+1
no, fuck it, +2
Yes, because a semi circle solves it all.
I mean, politics is so collaborative and non-confrontational in Edinburgh. Getting that extra 60 degrees of angle on your opponents and a slightly sore neck makes all the difference.
Actually it is. The problem in Scotland is that the governance is very cosy. Everyone is a pal of everyone else. While I'm not keen on confrontation for the sake of it, I think people should be challenged.
Comments
Hilarious!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-49557734
Lord True moved his amendment at 6.43pm.
Division at 7.36pm - so debated for just under an hour.
This Division is on a Closure Motion.
If it wins, then a Division on the Amendment.
Result: One amendment will have taken just over 80 minutes.
Whilst voting to avoid no deal.
And voting against an Election 😂
I note that the betting markets don't seem to have reacted to what's going on either in the Lords or the Commons.
hmmmmmm
We have been in the realm of 'legal vs reasonable' actions for quite some time.
As a practical question, couldn't anyone have provided tellers? I assume Labour were against it too.
Lord True's amendment being voted on now is just the 2nd amendment to the Business Motion on the Order Paper (out of 86!).
https://lordsbusiness.parliament.uk/
"Those of you who think you can get away with promising to respect the referendum result then abandoning this promise are in the ‘pirate’ category. Those of you in the narcissist-delusional subset of the ERG, who have spent the last three years scrambling for the 8.10am Today slot while spouting gibberish about trade and the law across SW1 — i.e. exactly the contemptible behaviour that led to your enforced marginalisation during the referendum and your attempt to destroy Vote Leave — you are also in the pirate category. You were useful idiots for Remain during the campaign and with every piece of bullshit from Bill Cash et al you have helped only Remain for three years."
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/03/the-erg-are-remains-useful-idiots/
Glad to see someone else gets it!
But if this bill is filibustered, he won't get the election, and most likely next month parliament will prevent him from leaving on 31 October, but will enforce an extension. Difficult to make sense of.
Oh to be a historian in 50-100 years. Or a reader of those history books.
Conversely you can buy gold options or speculate on gold vaue. IG Index (Investors Gold Index) was set up for specifically that purpose.
He would have kept his promise. The brexit party vote will all go to him.
by Pulpstar · August 27
I hope the pro HoL lot are borne out of a genuine love of it as an upper chamber with all its imperfections rather than anything to do with political current convenience.
Gardenwalker
by Gardenwalker · July 11
I like the HoL, and I get annoyed at the idea of its abolition or its replacement by an elected body
I mean, politics is so collaborative and non-confrontational in Edinburgh. Getting that extra 60 degrees of angle on your opponents and a slightly sore neck makes all the difference.
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1169323012488908802?s=21
Otherwise spoil your ballot.
god help us all!
To think people got the knickers in a twist over Boris saying "shit" earlier.
It would solve *so many* problems for it to pass.
If you look at his actions there is no other rational explanation beyond extreme incompetence.
1. We have not done any serious preparations for no deal
2. He is willing to break any constitutional rules
3. He could have chosen to prorogue parliament without announcement mid October to mid November, that would have actually delivered no deal
4. He chose to prorogue parliament, giving time both before and after for his opponents to strike. He knew this would still be unpalatable and push some to the edge. The only explanation for that is to provoke.
5. He organised, then cancelled meetings at short notice with the rebel Tories. The only explanation for that is to provoke.
6. JRM was sent out to provoke yesterday.
7. The point of the provocation must be to get an election and extension, he is losing capital with one nation tory MPs for something important
8. They have not negotiated anything with the EU
Points 3 & 4 are most important, he could have delivered no deal given his willingness to break constitutional norms. He chose not to. But then chose to still do a half hearted prorgogation that achieves nothing bar provocation and dates that make it easy for parliament to extend. What possible reason is there for that?
So we're back on for 15th October?
If the Commons comes back after prorogation and tries to put the No Deal legislation through again then they still need to get it through the Commons, past the wreckers in the Lords for a second time, and then Boris Johnson can run the clock down a bit more by challenging the legislation in the courts. Finally, as a last resort, he could simply resign to avoid having to go to Brussels, leaving the Commons with about five minutes to find a majority to vote confidence in a successor.
They might well agree to compromise with Johnson, in exchange for not risking simply running out of time and, thus, Brexit by default.