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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Boris Johnson ignores the no deal law then 50/1 on him bein

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  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    As usual TSE is talking rot. The first to break precedent was the speaker acting on behalf of remainers:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/09/john-bercow-decision-endangers-the-office-of-speaker-and-our-democracy

    Look plank, there's a distinction between breaking a precedent, and breaking the law.
    he wont be breaking the law until it is signed into law by the Royal assent. Which can be (legitimately) delayed. Two can play at Parliamentary games.

    Your language is unhelpful and betrays both a slightly weak mind as well as a weak argument.
    Bills that pass both houses of parliament automatically become law on prorogation.
    without royal assent? is that correct? Happy to be corrected if so.
    You are duly corrected :smile:

    From the Institute of Government :

    "Any bills that have completed all their parliamentary stages at the point Parliament is prorogued, but have not yet been given Royal Assent (needed for a bill to become an Act of Parliament), receive Royal Assent as part of the prorogation ceremony. During the ceremony, the Clerk of the Crown announces each bill to receive Royal Assent. As each bill is announced, the Clerk of the Parliament then declares "Le Reyne le veult" (the Queen wishes it in Norman French), signifying Assent has been given."
    That isn't really automatic, as there has to be some action to confirm assent. The Clerk could say something different, for example.
    It's as automatic as every @HYUFD post claiming that Boris is the Messiah .... yes that automatic. There has never been an instance when the Clerk has not uttered the assent "Le Reyne le veult". Crossing his fingers behind his back doesn't invalidate it either ..... :smiley:
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342

    dixiedean said:

    DanSmith said:

    TGOHF said:
    No bill and no election and no time to force a bill afterwards?

    It would take a heart of stone . . .
    I feel like we're missing something here because this is huge, everything comes down to the Lords or its no deal. Very few journalists seem to be focusing on this.
    There's an assumption the Lords will always blink before the Commons. I see no reason they need to now. Especially with the Commons rejecting an election.

    Heart of stone ...
    Ironic to have seized control from the undemocratic EU, to have it decided in the Lords. The whole thing is a shambles.
    It is a shambles, we need a GE asap to resolve it (hopefully).
    Further along, we need a proper bloody constitution outlining, for a start, The powers of the executive, legislature, Speaker, Upper House and Head of State. The role and rules for referendums and their implementation. And Party funding.
    Instead of just making them up as we go along.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Looks like the filibuster is going to be successful. So now what?

    Brexit 31/10
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870

    kle4 said:

    I am enjoying the reversal of positions in the Lords, now that amendments to frustrate a bill passed by the Commons is bad, and considering curtailing their time to debate is good.

    To be absolutely fair, the anti-No Dealers would be right to point out that the unelected Lords attempting to veto the elected Commons in the midst of an emergency might be regarded as objectionable. But one might also reasonably contend that an element of hypocrisy is involved.
    Quite. If they want to argue that their hypocrisy is less destructive than the hypocrisy of their opponents I am all for it - a truly honest approach which might well be justifiable without getting on a high horse.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215

    Looks like the filibuster is going to be successful. So now what?

    Vote for an election on October 15th.
  • kle4 said:

    Regardless of past rules on confidence votes, and whether it was a good idea or reasonable to make yesterday's vote a confidence vote, fact is that it was one and everyone who still opposed it went in knowing what would happen if they did. It seems to me to diminish their stand to quibble about the rightness or wrongness of it being a confidence vote in the first place. It was, they stood up and were heroes/traitors, either way good for them.

    But it wasn't a confidence vote. First legally as the FTPA has changed what counts as a confidence vote. Second functionally as if it had been a confidence vote then Boris woukd have resigned as he lost it. But he didn't because it wasn't.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,890
    rcs1000 said:

    Question for PBers

    If you're a Leaver, but you generally liked Mrs May's deal, and you want to leave the EU in an orderly fashion, who do you vote for?

    If Mann runs as an independent (And I'm amazed he still has the labour whip quite honestly) that could sort it. I still think the WA is the best route out ;)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    alex. said:

    If last night’s vote was a confidence vote, why hasn’t Johnson resigned?

    Because he had the confidence of the great majority of his MPs then.

    And an even greater percentage now.... :)
  • Brillo taking the Chief Secretary to the Treasury apart fairly neatly on BBC2.
  • AndyJS said:
    What utter crap. Soames voted with the marxists and nationalists against his own party on a matter of confidence. He was told beforehand the consequences of doing so but continued nonetheless. Soames decided how to vote and owns the outturn.
    Yup. 3 rebellions in 3 decades. Shagger does 3 rebellions before breakfast. Obviously Somasey is the traitor and not Johnson.
    It was a confidence vote. Your post is just irrelevant whataboutery.
    I shall take that under advisement based on your expertise on irrelevance and whataboutery
    Touche sir.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147

    felix said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    AndyJS said:

    How will Remainers react if there is an election and Boris wins a comfortable majority?

    How will it be any different from what we are going through now?

    We know it is a mistake and the Govt seem determined to make it. They sure as heck are not listening to Remainers.

    If he gets a majority then he gets a majority. I will just note that Remainers, in general, are not the ones threatening violence, intimidation, deportations or civil disorder if we do not get our way...
    You conveniently forget Philip Pullman suggesting that Boris should be hanged the other day. Can't think of anything more extreme. The fact is there are lunatics on both sides and if you don 't realise it you're probably one of them.
    I see you missed the subclause "in general"...
    Not at all. There are many examples of Remainer fanatics - did you not see the guillotines in the crowds last week? What is spectacularly stupid is you trying to infer without a shred of evidence that the leavers have the majority of lunatics - as even if it were true kinda misses the point. It takes only one person as was so amply demonstrated with Jo Cox.
    Jo Cox's killer was not exactly dragged from the Dock spouting "Remain! EU forever!"
    Are you really too thick to understand the point being made? The implications of what you are saying are terrifying.
    I am obviously too thick to understand the way you express it. So why not explain it more clearly?
    Yawn. When it comes to fanatics on both sides it really isn't a numbers game despite your claim [ based on nothing] that there are more on one side than the other. If one lunatic is inspired by Pullman's tweet the result would be as bad as Jo Cox. In short none of it is acceptable.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357

    Looks like the filibuster is going to be successful. So now what?

    Cummins does his Mwhahahahahahaha laugh?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870

    kle4 said:

    Regardless of past rules on confidence votes, and whether it was a good idea or reasonable to make yesterday's vote a confidence vote, fact is that it was one and everyone who still opposed it went in knowing what would happen if they did. It seems to me to diminish their stand to quibble about the rightness or wrongness of it being a confidence vote in the first place. It was, they stood up and were heroes/traitors, either way good for them.

    But it wasn't a confidence vote. First legally as the FTPA has changed what counts as a confidence vote. Second functionally as if it had been a confidence vote then Boris woukd have resigned as he lost it. But he didn't because it wasn't.
    I was under the impression there was analysis stating that the view that the FPTA had done away with other confidence votes was not true, but regardless of whether that is right or not I don't see that it makes much difference. If they say they want to treat it as though it were a confidence vote, even if legally it is not one, surely a party is entitled to do that? How they enforce party discipline is their own business and they made clear they would be very firm on that, and whether that was stupid or not they let everyone know it too.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    edited September 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:
    Luckily Johnson has offered them a route out via General Election.
    By Friday the Opposition might all be rushing to board Boris's big red election battle bus! :D
  • Looks like the filibuster is going to be successful. So now what?

    Still options available
    1. No confidence Johnson, tie Jezbollah up with duct tape, install KenClarke
    2. Bercow refuses to prologue and challenges HM to arrest MPs

    Or more likely
    3. Space lizards interrupt No Deal preparations by parking their invasion fleet in orbit and destroying Brussels
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    Stupid question probably. Why didn't the Lords filibuster the last time the HOC presented a bill making the PM ask for an extension?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427

    Looks like the filibuster is going to be successful. So now what?

    Cummins does his Mwhahahahahahaha laugh?
    Does Boris then decide he doesn’t want an election after all?
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    DanSmith said:

    TGOHF said:
    No bill and no election and no time to force a bill afterwards?

    It would take a heart of stone . . .
    I feel like we're missing something here because this is huge, everything comes down to the Lords or its no deal. Very few journalists seem to be focusing on this.
    There's an assumption the Lords will always blink before the Commons. I see no reason they need to now. Especially with the Commons rejecting an election.

    Heart of stone ...
    Ironic to have seized control from the undemocratic EU, to have it decided in the Lords. The whole thing is a shambles.
    It is a shambles, we need a GE asap to resolve it (hopefully).
    Further along, we need a proper bloody constitution outlining, for a start, The powers of the executive, legislature, Speaker, Upper House and Head of State. The role and rules for referendums and their implementation. And Party funding.
    Instead of just making them up as we go along.
    Does writing them down actually mean they will be coherent in 10-50-100 years time? The evidence of the fixed term parliaments act or US constitution protecting individuals owning firearms that the founders would not have dreamed of suggest not.

    I dont know if it is better or worse on balance, but just like VAR it changes one set of controversies for another.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    rcs1000 said:

    Question for PBers

    If you're a Leaver, but you generally liked Mrs May's deal, and you want to leave the EU in an orderly fashion, who do you vote for?

    Corbyn, I think, is nearest to what you are asking for.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705


    Or more likely
    3. Space lizards interrupt No Deal preparations by parking their invasion fleet in orbit and destroying Brussels

    UK fails to agree Government of National Unity to organise resistance to our new reptilian overlords.
  • Looks like the filibuster is going to be successful. So now what?

    Post memes of Cummings laughing with the legend "He's Wargamed This' on PB forever...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    TGOHF said:

    Looks like the filibuster is going to be successful. So now what?

    Brexit 31/10
    Phew. No chance of that happening then.
  • felix said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    AndyJS said:

    How will Remainers react if there is an election and Boris wins a comfortable majority?

    How will it be any different from what we are going through now?

    We know it is a mistake and the Govt seem determined to make it. They sure as heck are not listening to Remainers.

    If he gets a majority then he gets a majority. I will just note that Remainers, in general, are not the ones threatening violence, intimidation, deportations or civil disorder if we do not get our way...
    You conveniently forget Philip Pullman suggesting that Boris should be hanged the other day. Can't think of anything more extreme. The fact is there are lunatics on both sides and if you don 't realise it you're probably one of them.
    I see you missed the subclause "in general"...
    Not at all. There are many examples of Remainer fanatics - did you not see the guillotines in the crowds last week? What is spectacularly stupid is you trying to infer without a shred of evidence that the leavers have the majority of lunatics - as even if it were true kinda misses the point. It takes only one person as was so amply demonstrated with Jo Cox.
    Jo Cox's killer was not exactly dragged from the Dock spouting "Remain! EU forever!"
    Are you really too thick to understand the point being made? The implications of what you are saying are terrifying.
    I am obviously too thick to understand the way you express it. So why not explain it more clearly?
    Found this quote somewhere
    "To suggest that those who support the current status quo are extremists just goes to show how extreme leavers have actually become. There is in fact no such thing as an extreme Remainer since there is only one version of remain, everything else is just different shades of leaving."
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153

    Stupid question probably. Why didn't the Lords filibuster the last time the HOC presented a bill making the PM ask for an extension?

    I thought they did but there was unlimited time then?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,364
    Mr Gallowgate,

    Your Co, Durham workmates are worrying about the HoC being disrespected? If Boris whipped out his todger and p*ssed on them all, I suspect they're be cheering around here.

    He may be an untrustworthy loon, but he's added ten percent to the Tories' polling. How has Jezza done?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited September 2019
    FF43 said:

    Just had a very unpleasant experience. Was innocently listening to the calming tones of Sarah Montague at lunchtime, when I heard a repulsive blast from the past. That ginormous turd Michael Forsyth, who the voters of Stirling soundly dismissed in 1997, was on my bloody radio, splurging his usual lies, hatred and bile.

    This is why the House of Lords has to go. Reptiles like Forsyth suck at the taxpayers’ teets for decades after losing elections. The vile serpent had the audacity to present himself as a champion of democracy.

    A bit strong Stuart. I don't know Lord F but the feedback I've received is that he is a very courteous and extremely bright guy. Came from a generation of Tories influenced by the Manchester school of economists at St Andrews in the 70s. An interesting fellow and not to be dismissed in these kind of terms, however much you may disagree with him. He is also, unassailably, an authentic working-class Scot.
    Words fail me.

    A bit strong eh?

    Clear that you were not in Scotland in the 80s and 90s.

    Forsyth was utterly despised, throughout the nation. He managed to unite the (then dominant) Scottish Labour Party, Scottish Liberals, the SNP, half the Scottish Tory party, and the unaligned, against him. He was reviled more than Maggie. Why? Well, Maggie was English. She had an excuse. Forsyth didn’t.

    Michael Forsyth is why devolution happened. He was the vital catalyst. Never again would Scots be mis-ruled as they had been under Forsyth.

    And the wee bastard hasn’t changed one iota in 22 years.
    There, that's a bit more measured. And he did bring back the Stone of Destiny.
    Fair doos. In a flippin Land Rover!! 😳

    Shame he repatriated it to the wrong bloody burgh. Twat.
    Personally, I would have left the Stone of Destiny, if indeed it is the real stone, in Westminster Abbey. It has a historical context in the 13th C chair that was built for it. We can be self confident enough of our nationhood to accept the facts of history as they happened.

    Still it was interesting that a highly unpopular Tory colonial administrator Secretary of State for Scotland should alight on the idea of shipping a lump of granite to Scotland from England as a way of shoring up his position.
    It was indeed profoundly incongruous. And fascinating. In the same way that watching a great white shark using a sea lion as a toy is fascinating. The Scots tossed the Tory marionette a plaything, and the colonial governor played the perfect eejit.

    (Incidentally, not granite. Sandstone.)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    DanSmith said:

    TGOHF said:
    No bill and no election and no time to force a bill afterwards?

    It would take a heart of stone . . .
    I feel like we're missing something here because this is huge, everything comes down to the Lords or its no deal. Very few journalists seem to be focusing on this.
    There's an assumption the Lords will always blink before the Commons. I see no reason they need to now. Especially with the Commons rejecting an election.

    Heart of stone ...
    Ironic to have seized control from the undemocratic EU, to have it decided in the Lords. The whole thing is a shambles.
    It is a shambles, we need a GE asap to resolve it (hopefully).
    Further along, we need a proper bloody constitution outlining, for a start, The powers of the executive, legislature, Speaker, Upper House and Head of State. The role and rules for referendums and their implementation. And Party funding.
    Instead of just making them up as we go along.
    Does writing them down actually mean they will be coherent in 10-50-100 years time? The evidence of the fixed term parliaments act or US constitution protecting individuals owning firearms that the founders would not have dreamed of suggest not.

    I dont know if it is better or worse on balance, but just like VAR it changes one set of controversies for another.
    Indeed. Perhaps it will improve matters to some degree, lord knows some of the confusion was probably avoidable, but the idea it will entirely avoid these arguments is demonstrably untrue from examples all over the world where such points still get argued. I think it is a solution looking for a problem.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427
    blueblue said:

    Looks like the filibuster is going to be successful. So now what?

    Post memes of Cummings laughing with the legend "He's Wargamed This' on PB forever...
    What does Cummings actually want? An election?
  • Looks like the filibuster is going to be successful. So now what?

    Cummins does his Mwhahahahahahaha laugh?
    Does Boris then decide he doesn’t want an election after all?
    Whu would he? LMFAO!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    edited September 2019
    "Johnson is allowing unelected bureaucrats (Cummings) to run our government" David Gaulke

    Johnson says 'intense negotiations are going on now'

    "That's bullshit" says the EU chief negotiator.

    Ch 4 News is very funny. Boris can't help himself.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427
    CD13 said:

    Mr Gallowgate,

    Your Co, Durham workmates are worrying about the HoC being disrespected? If Boris whipped out his todger and p*ssed on them all, I suspect they're be cheering around here.

    He may be an untrustworthy loon, but he's added ten percent to the Tories' polling. How has Jezza done?

    I didn’t say they didn’t support Brexit. They just don’t like Tories.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Question for PBers

    If you're a Leaver, but you generally liked Mrs May's deal, and you want to leave the EU in an orderly fashion, who do you vote for?

    Corbyn, I think, is nearest to what you are asking for.
    Sure, but odds are good wherever someone is the local Labour candidate does not back that position.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Stupid question probably. Why didn't the Lords filibuster the last time the HOC presented a bill making the PM ask for an extension?

    I thought they did but there was unlimited time then?
    They didn't, it all passed in a day.

    May only halfheartedly was against.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    Roger said:

    "Johnson is allowing unelected bureaucrats (Cummings) to run the government" David Gaulke

    tony Blair did the same
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360
    edited September 2019
    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Question for PBers

    If you're a Leaver, but you generally liked Mrs May's deal, and you want to leave the EU in an orderly fashion, who do you vote for?

    Tricky one!
    Obviously there isn't an answer, but FWIW, taken at face value (not much of that around at the moment) the present government's policy is, roughly:

    oppose the backstop but don't talk about any other aspects of TMs deal
    get some sort of alteration to the backstop, which can be sold as a reversal and victory
    win an election on October 15th on basis of leave with that deal or if necessary without one
    use the last two weeks of October to force an orderly and moderate deal out of EU.

    You have to get behind a lot of hype and, if Mr Meeks is correct, be prepared to buy a bridge from him, to get to this point; but no other party offers anything half as clear and coherent by way of a deal. Shame no-one believes a word they say, and not without reason. But for those who still want to leave it remains the best (only?) chance. Which is why I think for the moment the share price of Remain is rising a bit.

  • blueblue said:

    Looks like the filibuster is going to be successful. So now what?

    Post memes of Cummings laughing with the legend "He's Wargamed This' on PB forever...
    What does Cummings actually want? An election?
    Of course - how else do the Tories stay in power for another 5 years with the ability to pass the laws necessary to create the new Singapore?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    edited September 2019
    I do love that some old fart rambling on about God knows what is going to decide the future of this country.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    GIN1138 said:

    Stupid question probably. Why didn't the Lords filibuster the last time the HOC presented a bill making the PM ask for an extension?

    I thought they did but there was unlimited time then?
    Ah ok yes I see this one is time limited which changes the dynamic.
  • blueblue said:

    Looks like the filibuster is going to be successful. So now what?

    Post memes of Cummings laughing with the legend "He's Wargamed This' on PB forever...
    What does Cummings actually want? An election?
    An extension and an election. Whilst pretending to want neither.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2019
    MaxPB said:

    I do love that some old fart rambling on about God knows what is going to decide the future of this country.

    Tony Blair tried to make it an elected chamber but they rejected about 7 different options IIRC.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords#Votes_of_March_2007
  • MikeL said:

    If Lords do talk out the Benn Bill then:

    Parliament comes back on Mon 14 Oct. Could Parliament then pass a Bill in time to force PM to get an extension on Sat 19 Oct?

    Maybe, maybe not!!!

    They would install a new PM to act in the same manner as the bill if it was needed.
    Comes back to are there ~322 MPs willing to give Corbyn confidence. Corbyn will NOT give anyone else confidence.
    I wonder if there's anything Johnson could do to make it easier for Tory MPs to act against a lifetime of political practise and vote to support a Labour PM?

    Oh...
    The issue isn't whether they are willing to vote to support a Labour PM. The issue is whether they are willing to support Jeremy Corbyn.

    If this was a vote to support Starmer or Harman then I think Grieve would happily do so. Corbyn is a different matter.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    MaxPB said:

    I do love that some old fart rambling on about God knows what is going to decide the future of this country.

    It's very on brand for us.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,364
    Mr Gallowgate,

    "They just don’t like Tories."

    That I can understand, but that's why the answer to Mr 1000's question is no one. The Labour party is now a captive of the London Elite.
  • MaxPB said:

    I do love that some old fart rambling on about God knows what is going to decide the future of this country.

    Yes, it's very reassuring is it not. I expect he's making more sense more eloquently than most parliamentary contributions this week.

  • Or more likely
    3. Space lizards interrupt No Deal preparations by parking their invasion fleet in orbit and destroying Brussels

    UK fails to agree Government of National Unity to organise resistance to our new reptilian overlords.
    https://images.app.goo.gl/yWMNBK5xmynXeoBX6
  • Roger said:

    "Johnson is allowing unelected bureaucrats (Cummings) to run our government" David Gaulke

    Hahahahahaha!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427
    WTF just happened? Kinnock amendment passed by a technicality?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    John Healey getting skewered by Andrew Neill
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I do love that some old fart rambling on about God knows what is going to decide the future of this country.

    It's very on brand for us.
    Reassuringly so, I'd say.
  • How can the Commons have no Tellers? WTF?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427

    WTF just happened? Kinnock amendment passed by a technicality?

    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1169316459518013440?s=21
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    Roger said:

    "Johnson is allowing unelected bureaucrats (Cummings) to run our government" David Gaulke

    Johnson says 'intense negotiations are going on now'

    "That's bullshit" says the EU chief negotiator.

    Ch 4 News is very funny. Boris can't help himself.

    Gauke is yesterdays news.

    And as for the EU - well they would say that wouldn't they?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Jesus was that democracy in action just then when I doubt if anyone knew what they were doing?
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Roger said:

    "Johnson is allowing unelected bureaucrats (Cummings) to run the government" David Gaulke

    tony Blair did the same
    Saying "Tony Blair did it" is never a defence..
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    What happened with that Amendment 6 division?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    Noo said:

    Roger said:

    "Johnson is allowing unelected bureaucrats (Cummings) to run the government" David Gaulke

    tony Blair did the same
    Saying "Tony Blair did it" is never a defence..
    it was an accusation
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    I really don't understand what the filibuster is going to achieve from the government's point of view. What's to stop this bill being passed after parliament returns next month?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    DanSmith said:

    TGOHF said:
    No bill and no election and no time to force a bill afterwards?

    It would take a heart of stone . . .
    I feel like we're missing something here because this is huge, everything comes down to the Lords or its no deal. Very few journalists seem to be focusing on this.
    There's an assumption the Lords will always blink before the Commons. I see no reason they need to now. Especially with the Commons rejecting an election.

    Heart of stone ...
    Ironic to have seized control from the undemocratic EU, to have it decided in the Lords. The whole thing is a shambles.
    It is a shambles, we need a GE asap to resolve it (hopefully).
    Further along, we need a proper bloody constitution outlining, for a start, The powers of the executive, legislature, Speaker, Upper House and Head of State. The role and rules for referendums and their implementation. And Party funding.
    Instead of just making them up as we go along.
    Does writing them down actually mean they will be coherent in 10-50-100 years time? The evidence of the fixed term parliaments act or US constitution protecting individuals owning firearms that the founders would not have dreamed of suggest not.

    I dont know if it is better or worse on balance, but just like VAR it changes one set of controversies for another.
    Maybe, maybe not. Tough to argue the system is running smoothly right now, though. And the US is a special case. It has a Constitution worshipped with Holy reverence, and one difficult to alter.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427
    So WA 4.0 back on!
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Blow the place up build a new one in Birmingham with all mod cons in a non confrontational semi circle this is bloody ridiculous
  • If the Lords talk out the extension bill - as looks likely - we are back to there being a No Deal Brexit on 31st October, aren't we? But now without Johnson being able to call an election in advance of it. I am not sure that is an ideal outcome for his chances of winning an election when one does come.
  • Chris said:

    I really don't understand what the filibuster is going to achieve from the government's point of view. What's to stop this bill being passed after parliament returns next month?

    It is to make leavers believe they really really wanted to leave on Oct 31, even though they dont, because they have no plan and no negotiating power with either the EU or parliament, let alone both of them.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Third reading voting now.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    Chris said:

    I really don't understand what the filibuster is going to achieve from the government's point of view. What's to stop this bill being passed after parliament returns next month?

    Didn't Letwin say this week is the final week to stop "No Deal" ?
  • So WA 4.0 back on!

    Go Theresa! Go backstop!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,921
    You know how this week's Markit numbers were bad in the US. The ISM numbers are even worse:

    "But the details of Tuesday's ISM report were ugly, with new orders, production and employment sub-indices all contracting last month. New export orders shrunk for the second consecutive month and fell to their lowest since April 2009, when global trade was hit following the financial crisis."

    And the figures from the UK, Japan and the Eurozone aren't any better.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    nichomar said:

    Blow the place up build a new one in Birmingham with all mod cons in a non confrontational semi circle this is bloody ridiculous

    +1

    no, fuck it, +2
  • Roger said:

    "Johnson is allowing unelected bureaucrats (Cummings) to run our government" David Gaulke

    Johnson says 'intense negotiations are going on now'

    "That's bullshit" says the EU chief negotiator.

    Ch 4 News is very funny. Boris can't help himself.

    If only we had a Monty Python de nos jours. They’d be having a field day.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    48 hours after being reselected as candidate, Philip Hammond is deselected by his local party.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/04/philip-hammond-deselected-conservative-candidate/
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Looks like the filibuster is going to be successful. So now what?

    Still options available
    1. No confidence Johnson, tie Jezbollah up with duct tape, install KenClarke
    VONC is a terrible risk: it starts the clock running on the formation of an alternative Government and, if one cannot be assembled by the time the clock runs down to zero, dissolution follows automatically and Boris Johnson (as caretaker PM) can simply nominate an election date after October 31st. This is not an impossibility: a lot of MPs are reluctant to back Corbyn as PM, and Corbyn himself would be damaged by consenting to his own setting aside.

    The best option would be to ram through a one-line bill overruling the FTPA, nominating October 15th as the date of the next election. Given that Boris Johnson has already called for this, neither he nor, more pertinently, the Tory wreckers in the Lords would have any grounds on which to prevent it from passing. Johnson then wins the dissolution battle, but the anti-No Deal alliance has one final chance to thwart him through beating him at the ballot box.
  • kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    DanSmith said:

    TGOHF said:
    No bill and no election and no time to force a bill afterwards?

    It would take a heart of stone . . .
    I feel like we're missing something here because this is huge, everything comes down to the Lords or its no deal. Very few journalists seem to be focusing on this.
    There's an assumption the Lords will always blink before the Commons. I see no reason they need to now. Especially with the Commons rejecting an election.

    Heart of stone ...
    Ironic to have seized control from the undemocratic EU, to have it decided in the Lords. The whole thing is a shambles.
    It is a shambles, we need a GE asap to resolve it (hopefully).
    Further along, we need a proper bloody constitution outlining, for a start, The powers of the executive, legislature, Speaker, Upper House and Head of State. The role and rules for referendums and their implementation. And Party funding.
    Instead of just making them up as we go along.
    Does writing them down actually mean they will be coherent in 10-50-100 years time? The evidence of the fixed term parliaments act or US constitution protecting individuals owning firearms that the founders would not have dreamed of suggest not.

    I dont know if it is better or worse on balance, but just like VAR it changes one set of controversies for another.
    Indeed. Perhaps it will improve matters to some degree, lord knows some of the confusion was probably avoidable, but the idea it will entirely avoid these arguments is demonstrably untrue from examples all over the world where such points still get argued. I think it is a solution looking for a problem.
    That's like saying " We now consider dropping litter to be murder and offenders wiill get life imprisionment ". On the one hand you are correct. Anyone subsequently dropping litter knew the consequences of their actions. On the other hand no one was murdered, dropping litter clearly isn't murder and those sentenced to life imprisionment would be entitled to say so. As well as pointing out it was a back of a fag packet abuse of executive power with no obvious precedent.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1169317383024123905

    ok stand down, should be able to get cleared if this is the case. Paul Waugh such a troll.
  • ab195ab195 Posts: 477
    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Question for PBers

    If you're a Leaver, but you generally liked Mrs May's deal, and you want to leave the EU in an orderly fashion, who do you vote for?

    Corbyn, I think, is nearest to what you are asking for.
    Boris for me. Go extreme and then walk back.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Chris said:

    I really don't understand what the filibuster is going to achieve from the government's point of view. What's to stop this bill being passed after parliament returns next month?

    Didn't Letwin say this week is the final week to stop "No Deal" ?
    They said that the week before Johnson was elected as well. In the 31st March processes there were around six last chances to stop brexit before it was stopped.

    The real last chance is around the end of October.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    Anecdote alert. Was mentioning to a relative about being on the electoral register, their reply: What's the point? The one time I voted and MPs just betrayed us, they should all be arrested for treason.

    I think I'll avoid further Brexit talk in the household, just for the sake of harmony.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    rcs1000 said:

    You know how this week's Markit numbers were bad in the US. The ISM numbers are even worse:

    "But the details of Tuesday's ISM report were ugly, with new orders, production and employment sub-indices all contracting last month. New export orders shrunk for the second consecutive month and fell to their lowest since April 2009, when global trade was hit following the financial crisis."

    And the figures from the UK, Japan and the Eurozone aren't any better.

    its slow down right across the world

    probably time for one too
  • Chris said:

    I really don't understand what the filibuster is going to achieve from the government's point of view. What's to stop this bill being passed after parliament returns next month?

    The final European Union Council meeting before Halloween is 17/10, it wouldn't be possible to pass the law before then. They could pass it after that but that would then rely upon the EU setting up an emergency meeting.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    So WA 4.0 back on!

    This would not be smart from Labour... they'll give an "I delivered" narrative to Boris.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    October now back as favourite for next GE - had been November for a few hours earlier.
  • So WA 4.0 back on!

    Hope Boris throws out anyone who votes for it, having previously voted for it himself!!
  • Noo said:

    nichomar said:

    Blow the place up build a new one in Birmingham with all mod cons in a non confrontational semi circle this is bloody ridiculous

    +1

    no, fuck it, +2
    +3

    If I was a Unionist.

    Which I’m not.

  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Roger said:

    "Johnson is allowing unelected bureaucrats (Cummings) to run our government" David Gaulke

    Johnson says 'intense negotiations are going on now'

    "That's bullshit" says the EU chief negotiator.

    Ch 4 News is very funny. Boris can't help himself.

    If only we had a Monty Python de nos jours. They’d be having a field day.
    No, spitting images would nail it
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Soooooo, how does Theresa May vote on MV4 then if they're whipped against? :-)
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    Government trying hard to sure up it’s so called negotiating position. Why can’t they just be honest and say they are going for no deal?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Government tellers unavailable .

    Skullduggery 😂
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    edited September 2019
    Deleted.
  • Both sides will have to vote that down, won't they?
  • rcs1000 said:

    You know how this week's Markit numbers were bad in the US. The ISM numbers are even worse:

    "But the details of Tuesday's ISM report were ugly, with new orders, production and employment sub-indices all contracting last month. New export orders shrunk for the second consecutive month and fell to their lowest since April 2009, when global trade was hit following the financial crisis."

    And the figures from the UK, Japan and the Eurozone aren't any better.

    Time to sell equities?

    If so what currencies to hold the cash in?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,921
    algarkirk said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Question for PBers

    If you're a Leaver, but you generally liked Mrs May's deal, and you want to leave the EU in an orderly fashion, who do you vote for?

    Tricky one!
    Obviously there isn't an answer, but FWIW, taken at face value (not much of that around at the moment) the present government's policy is, roughly:

    oppose the backstop but don't talk about any other aspects of TMs deal
    get some sort of alteration to the backstop, which can be sold as a reversal and victory
    win an election on October 15th on basis of leave with that deal or if necessary without one
    use the last two weeks of October to force an orderly and moderate deal out of EU.

    You have to get behind a lot of hype and, if Mr Meeks is correct, be prepared to buy a bridge from him, to get to this point; but no other party offers anything half as clear and coherent by way of a deal. Shame no-one believes a word they say, and not without reason. But for those who still want to leave it remains the best (only?) chance. Which is why I think for the moment the share price of Remain is rising a bit.

    The problem I have is this:

    If Mr Johnson was really serious about replacing the backstop, he would be publicly talking about the alternative. He would be making the EU sound unreasonable to people in Ireland and beyond.

    Here's the solution, he'd say. Please EU, do the right thing for the Irish and accept it.

    Instead he tells us there are "intensive" negotiations going on, which is (I'm afraid) bullshit.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    May’s Deal returns!

    Anyone even vaguely sane who is left in the Commons would be advised to ratify it.
  • Either Cummings has wargamed this as part of his genius, or tragedy is moving to farce.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    edited September 2019
    kle4 said:

    Anecdote alert. Was mentioning to a relative about being on the electoral register, their reply: What's the point? The one time I voted and MPs just betrayed us, they should all be arrested for treason.

    I think I'll avoid further Brexit talk in the household, just for the sake of harmony.

    I note how MPs have gone quiet on greater voter paticiaption and the need for wider democracy.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    nichomar said:

    Blow the place up build a new one in Birmingham with all mod cons in a non confrontational semi circle this is bloody ridiculous

    Colour me skeptical that a 'non confrontational semi circle' makes a blind bit of difference. The US House of Representatives is legendary for its non-confrontational style?

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427
    Brexit Party would not let Boris get away with just passing the WA. Can you imagine?
  • TGOHF said:

    Government tellers unavailable .

    Skullduggery 😂

    Maybe Cummings has been playing 10D chess, and wargamed a way to get the WA passed...
  • TGOHF said:

    Government tellers unavailable .

    Skullduggery 😂

    Has Cummings kidnapped the tellers?
This discussion has been closed.