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If Boris Johnson does ignore any law passed by parliament to stop a no-deal Brexit, something which Michael Gove repeatedly refused rule out on Sunday as we see the in the video above then I expect Parliament to take action.
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1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?
Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)
1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.
Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.
9c. New Labour leader attempts to form coalition.
https://twitter.com/RohitKachrooITV/status/1169262125946146822
Just watching Chris Bryant and Jeffrey Archer chatting to Beth Rigby on Sky News. Suggestion from that discussion is that the wheeze of defeating the emergency EU Withdrawal (No.6) Bill by advising the Queen not give Royal Assent won't work, which shields HM from the nuclear fallout for the immediate future at least...
I know he's stood down and it'll be someone else now, but for old times sake...
You don’t mean suspended from the ceiling of the commons, with EU flags tied to his wrists and ankles?
I haven't yet made up my mind, and I think it's still less than 50% chance I'll vote for them. But it's always been 0% chance at every previous election, so something profound has changed for me.
No I don't really want Corbyn in be PM. Yes the antisemitism bothers me a great deal, but I'm taking my lead from two Jewish friends who don't think it's as bad as it's made out (one of them is in fact a Labour member, her husband is a now-homeless Conservative voter).
I am a floating voter, so I'm not nailing any colours to the mast, and a lot might change between now and polling day, whenever that may be. But part of my thinking is that I would like to give this Conservative government the kicking of a lifetime, and voting for Corbyn feels like *one* way of achieving that.
Happy to be persuaded out of this almost-certain folly. If anyone has a better idea of legally registering my disgust at this Boris Johnson government that does not involve voting for Corbyn's lot, I'm all ears.
https://twitter.com/oisingrip/status/1169163390754926592/photo/1
Just say if you don't know ;-)
The optics are truly awful. Starting with Johnson's bullshit speech outside Number 10 being drowned out by booing. Losing a phlanx of the most solidly Tory MPs you could imagine through your own childish intransigence. The utterly bollocks "rowing back from austerity", Lee crossing the floor, the much bigger defeat than expected and the body language of Rees Mogg. 100,000 signing up to vote in 24 hours- the *same 24 hours* as the Tory government imploded.
This is the inflection point when the Tories can't get it back.
I think the polls will be increasingly terrifying for Johnson- no one likes losers, and they particularly don't like entitled bastard losers.
I also think that tactical voting against the Tories will accelerate the losses they are going to make.
1997 may not be the low point for the Tories- this time I don't think that they can come back.
No. Labour, especially Corbyn, are too dim, desperate and greedy to realise they are best served by waiting. GE in October if Surrender Bill passes.
https://www.itv.com/news/2019-09-04/jacob-rees-mogg-gets-meme-treatment-after-commons-lie-down-goes-viral/
How popular? Who can say.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/no-wonder-theresa-may-was-smiling-boris-johnsons-chaotic-brexit-means-nothing-has-changed/ar-AAGMTAm?ocid=spartanntp
For your "b" route it will be very dependent on the make-up of the hung parliament. But I think it will be very difficult to see a no-deal on 31st Oct if parliament is hung.
The important thing is to ensure that Mr Cummings cannot wheedle a no-deal through the back door by some cunning plan.
Somethings got to give.
I would caution assuming the polls are going to change against the government, they could but until a trend indicates so I am in the camp that it is wide open
I also really do not like Corbyn and would hate him to be our PM.
However, if it came to it, I would vote for my local Labour candidate (she is great) if it was needed in a polarizing election.
A culture war might require me to take a side.
Besides, this is a potentially very complex election, in which four and possibly five parties could poll over 10% in England, as well as in Scotland and Wales. If the Tories manage to hold on to 30% of the vote then they could win an outright majority if it stacks up in the right places.
In short, nobody has the faintest idea of how this is all going to pan out.
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/09/02/proponents-of-the-new-bill-to-stop-no-deal-face-a-significant-dilemma-over-queens-consent/
He is not convinced he was wrong:
https://twitter.com/RobertCraig3/status/1169261742641356800
It is hard to see why we won't end up with another hung parliament without a majority for anything, and politicians without even the slightest intention of either compromising or leading by trying to convince others rather than gaming the system.
That only requires a majority of one.
But in theory as well as the 2/3 option, there is the option of a VONC in the government, and an election will follow if there isn't a VOC within the following fortnight.
But what's the best way to kick the Tories in the coming election? That's as important to me as the policies of the party I will vote for. I'm really itching to maximise the force with which I say "no" to Boris. I don't feel like voting, say, Green is going to be felt as much.
I live in England, so there is no SNP/Plaid Cymru/Sinn Fein option open to me.
But if that happens Corbs would secure a 6 month extension and call a referendum. Which would change everything
Can the Conservatives keep large numbers of older and wealthier voters on side simply because, regardless of how they feel about Brexit, they're terrified of a Corbyn Government? We just don't know.
- Boris wants an election, and we can assume his 289 loyal MPs (and the DUP) would vote for it.
- Corbyn might want an election, but many of his backbenchers don’t. He seems to be saying yes, once the Queen signs the Act. Many of his backbenchers say not until after 31 Oct. They will abstain tonight be who knows about Fri/Mon.
- The SNP will vote for one once the Queen signs the Act. Presumably because they stand to gain massively.
- The LibDem position is unclear. The might be amenable as they stand to gain.
- Presumably most independents would be against both on the Brexit grounds and because they’d lose their seats. Woodcock and similar might vote for it as a way of binning Corbyn.
Is that about right? That being the case a 15 Oct election looks like a 60% chance because of Corbyn, the SNP, and the one clause Bill route. But who knows?
The rule is 15% of the Parliamentary Party.
15% of 22 is 3.3 so the number would be 3 letters fewer.
I will see where the wind is blowing and decide the best way to use my vote.
It’s all academic anyway as I live in a safe Labour seat.
https://twitter.com/scoopford/status/1169269853657665538?s=21