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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Boris Johnson ignores the no deal law then 50/1 on him being suspended from the Commons this year looks attractive

If Boris Johnson does ignore any law passed by parliament to stop a no-deal Brexit, something which Michael Gove repeatedly refused rule out on Sunday as we see the in the video above then I expect Parliament to take action.

Read the full story here

Gabs2

So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.

1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October

Then two likely results:

6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October

Or:

6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?

JBriskinindyref2

Nice continuation thread

JBriskinindyref2

Gabs2 said:

So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.

1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October

Then two likely results:

6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October

Or:

6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?

ICYMI

Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)

1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.

eek

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Gabs2 said:

So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.

1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October

Then two likely results:

6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October

Or:

6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?

ICYMI

Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)

1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.

2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.

Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.

dr_spyn

Gabs2 said:

So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.

1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October

Then two likely results:

6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October

Or:

6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?

6c. Corbyn resigns after failing to take Labour to victory.
9c. New Labour leader attempts to form coalition.

JBriskinindyref2

eek said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Gabs2 said:

So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.

1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October

Then two likely results:

6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October

Or:

6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?

ICYMI

Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)

1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.

2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.

Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.

Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too frit

Scott_P

When is the celebrity fund-raising TV special?

https://twitter.com/RohitKachrooITV/status/1169262125946146822

Pulpstar

JBriskinindyref2 said:

eek said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Gabs2 said:

So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.

1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October

Then two likely results:

6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October

Or:

6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?

ICYMI

Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)

1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.

2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.

Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.

Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too frit

Is Milne taking back control from Starmer ?

Xtrain

All the Sky News presenters are having a party. They think Brexit is cancelled!

Andrew

Kinda fancy that one on Boris being the shortest-serving PM ……. courtesy of a tactical resignation to provoke a general election. Seems quite plausible rather than being forced into going for an extension.

JBriskinindyref2

Pulpstar said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

eek said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Gabs2 said:

So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.

1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October

Then two likely results:

6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October

Or:

6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?

ICYMI

Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)

1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.

2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.

Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.

Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too frit

Is Milne taking back control from Starmer ?

I think - as the TV people keep stating - it's a fluid situation

Black_Rook

Good afternoon all.

Just watching Chris Bryant and Jeffrey Archer chatting to Beth Rigby on Sky News. Suggestion from that discussion is that the wheeze of defeating the emergency EU Withdrawal (No.6) Bill by advising the Queen not give Royal Assent won't work, which shields HM from the nuclear fallout for the immediate future at least...

JBriskinindyref2

Xtrain said:

All the Sky News presenters are having a party. They think Brexit is cancelled!

I think they're probably just happy at a potential GE

Gabs2

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Gabs2 said:

So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.

1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October

Then two likely results:

6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October

Or:

6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?

ICYMI

Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)

1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.

Labour has announced they will support a GE once bill is passed.

JBriskinindyref2

Gabs2 said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Gabs2 said:

So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.

1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October

Then two likely results:

6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October

Or:

6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?

ICYMI

Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)

1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.

Labour has announced they will support a GE once bill is passed.

Which doesn't contradict what I said

Nigelb

I think he is more likely to resign than risk such an outcome.

Pulpstar

Andrew said:

Kinda fancy that one on Boris being the shortest-serving PM ……. courtesy of a tactical resignation to provoke a general election. Seems quite plausible rather than being forced into going for an extension.

He does that then Phil Hammond sustains a Corbyn govt for the next 3 years

MikeL

Hammond just said in Commons that need to allow time for litigation as Govt likely to dispute interpretation of the Bill.

tpfkar

Sixteenth like the letters in Graham Brady's safe?

I know he's stood down and it'll be someone else now, but for old times sake...

RobD

tpfkar said:

Sixteenth like the letters in Graham Brady's safe?

I know he's stood down and it'll be someone else now, but for old times sake...

And the threshold just got lower....

Tabman

Hammond monstering Johnson.

Chris

Does anyone know whether there was any explanation of why the Queen's consent was not required?

egg

43 and three quarters like letters in Graham Brady safe.

You don’t mean suspended from the ceiling of the commons, with EU flags tied to his wrists and ankles?

RobD

Chris said:

Does anyone know whether there was any explanation of why the Queen's consent was not required?

Because Bercow said so....

Fenman

This is no longer about Europe.

Noo

I've been thinking hard about yesterday's developments and the part the Labour Party has played in trying to prevent no deal. And for the first time in my life I'm coming around to the idea of voting for them.

I haven't yet made up my mind, and I think it's still less than 50% chance I'll vote for them. But it's always been 0% chance at every previous election, so something profound has changed for me.

No I don't really want Corbyn in be PM. Yes the antisemitism bothers me a great deal, but I'm taking my lead from two Jewish friends who don't think it's as bad as it's made out (one of them is in fact a Labour member, her husband is a now-homeless Conservative voter).

I am a floating voter, so I'm not nailing any colours to the mast, and a lot might change between now and polling day, whenever that may be. But part of my thinking is that I would like to give this Conservative government the kicking of a lifetime, and voting for Corbyn feels like *one* way of achieving that.

Happy to be persuaded out of this almost-certain folly. If anyone has a better idea of legally registering my disgust at this Boris Johnson government that does not involve voting for Corbyn's lot, I'm all ears.

Dadge

re Kinnock amendment (May's deal): There's always been a group of Labour MPs who wanted to support the WA but couldn't because of the Labour whip. Now that everyone's scrabbling around for a way of avoiding No Deal, they feel a bit braver (?) in going against the dear leader. But bear in mind that Corbyn was against the WA largely because he was using Brexit as leverage into a general election. Now a GE is imminent so I think he'd secretly be rather pleased if the WA was passed now. And it'd be a killer for the Tories. lol

egg

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Gabs2 said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Gabs2 said:

So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.

1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October

Then two likely results:

6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October

Or:

6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?

ICYMI

Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)

1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.

Labour has announced they will support a GE once bill is passed.

Which doesn't contradict what I said

Does anyone trust them not to go back on that out of self interest?

RobD

I think we have a winner for the JRM pictures:

https://twitter.com/oisingrip/status/1169163390754926592/photo/1

Gabs2

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Gabs2 said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Gabs2 said:

So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.

1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October

Then two likely results:

6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October

Or:

6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?

ICYMI

Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)

1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.

Labour has announced they will support a GE once bill is passed.

Which doesn't contradict what I said

So if Labour doesn't back it, Boris will do everything he can to play for time. Then resign. Corbyn will try to become PM and won't get the support. Presumably Grieve or Hammond becomes PM with the necessary Labour backing and extends. After that I imagine Corbyn withdraws support and nobody can form a government. Then a two week wait and a General Election.

williamglenn

Fenman said:

This is no longer about Europe.

It never was.

Scott_P

tpfkar said:

Sixteenth like the letters in Graham Brady's safe?

I know he's stood down and it'll be someone else now, but for old times sake...

He's back !!!

Chris

RobD said:

Chris said:

Does anyone know whether there was any explanation of why the Queen's consent was not required?

Because Bercow said so....

I mean did he give any explanation, as he did in the case of Cooper-Letwin.

Just say if you don't know ;-)

Byronic

Gabs2 said:

So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.

1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October

Then two likely results:

6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October

Or:

6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?

Thankyou. That is genuinely useful. I was equally confuzzled

Pulpstar

Dadge said:

re Kinnock amendment (May's deal): There's always been a group of Labour MPs who wanted to support the WA but couldn't because of the Labour whip. Now that everyone's scrabbling around for a way of avoiding No Deal, they feel a bit braver (?) in going against the dear leader. But bear in mind that Corbyn was against the WA largely because he was using Brexit as leverage into a general election. Now a GE is imminent so I think he'd secretly be rather pleased if the WA was passed now. And it'd be a killer for the Tories. lol

"wanted to support the WA but couldn't because of the Labour whip" didn't seem to be an issue for the Tory rebels (On either side !)

Gabs2

Noo said:

I've been thinking hard about yesterday's developments and the part the Labour Party has played in trying to prevent no deal. And for the first time in my life I'm coming around to the idea of voting for them.

I haven't yet made up my mind, and I think it's still less than 50% chance I'll vote for them. But it's always been 0% chance at every previous election, so something profound has changed for me.

No I don't really want Corbyn in be PM. Yes the antisemitism bothers me a great deal, but I'm taking my lead from two Jewish friends who don't think it's as bad as it's made out (one of them is in fact a Labour member, her husband is a now-homeless Conservative voter).

I am a floating voter, so I'm not nailing any colours to the mast, and a lot might change between now and polling day, whenever that may be. But part of my thinking is that I would like to give this Conservative government the kicking of a lifetime, and voting for Corbyn feels like *one* way of achieving that.

Happy to be persuaded out of this almost-certain folly. If anyone has a better idea of legally registering my disgust at this Boris Johnson government that does not involve voting for Corbyn's lot, I'm all ears.

Spoil your ballot with necessary crude language. Please don't vote for a man that commemorates Jew murderers. Your Jewish friends are not representative of the vast majority of Jews in this country, who are very scared at how much Corbyn will embolden anti-Semites and normalise such positions.

eek

Chris said:

RobD said:

Chris said:

Does anyone know whether there was any explanation of why the Queen's consent was not required?

Because Bercow said so....

I mean did he give any explanation, as he did in the case of Cooper-Letwin.

Just say if you don't know ;-)

Yes from memory it's the same decision as for Cooper Letwin - Bercow used dates in his references.

egg

JBriskinindyref2 said:

eek said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Gabs2 said:

So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.

1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October

Then two likely results:

6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October

Or:

6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?

ICYMI

Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)

1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.

2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.

Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.

Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too frit

Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.

Cicero

I think the past 24 hours have been utterly devastating for the Conservatives. Worse than Black Wednesday by a significant factor.

The optics are truly awful. Starting with Johnson's bullshit speech outside Number 10 being drowned out by booing. Losing a phlanx of the most solidly Tory MPs you could imagine through your own childish intransigence. The utterly bollocks "rowing back from austerity", Lee crossing the floor, the much bigger defeat than expected and the body language of Rees Mogg. 100,000 signing up to vote in 24 hours- the *same 24 hours* as the Tory government imploded.

This is the inflection point when the Tories can't get it back.

I think the polls will be increasingly terrifying for Johnson- no one likes losers, and they particularly don't like entitled bastard losers.

I also think that tactical voting against the Tories will accelerate the losses they are going to make.

1997 may not be the low point for the Tories- this time I don't think that they can come back.

RobD

Chris said:

RobD said:

Chris said:

Does anyone know whether there was any explanation of why the Queen's consent was not required?

Because Bercow said so....

I mean did he give any explanation, as he did in the case of Cooper-Letwin.

Just say if you don't know ;-)

You got me. I've not seen any official explanation yet. You could argue it infringes a little bit on the prerogative power to negotiation with other countries. But that'd be a weak case in my not-lawyer opinion.

Black_Rook

Gabs2 said:

Noo said:

I've been thinking hard about yesterday's developments and the part the Labour Party has played in trying to prevent no deal. And for the first time in my life I'm coming around to the idea of voting for them.

I haven't yet made up my mind, and I think it's still less than 50% chance I'll vote for them. But it's always been 0% chance at every previous election, so something profound has changed for me.

No I don't really want Corbyn in be PM. Yes the antisemitism bothers me a great deal, but I'm taking my lead from two Jewish friends who don't think it's as bad as it's made out (one of them is in fact a Labour member, her husband is a now-homeless Conservative voter).

I am a floating voter, so I'm not nailing any colours to the mast, and a lot might change between now and polling day, whenever that may be. But part of my thinking is that I would like to give this Conservative government the kicking of a lifetime, and voting for Corbyn feels like *one* way of achieving that.

Happy to be persuaded out of this almost-certain folly. If anyone has a better idea of legally registering my disgust at this Boris Johnson government that does not involve voting for Corbyn's lot, I'm all ears.

Spoil your ballot with necessary crude language. Please don't vote for a man that commemorates Jew murderers. Your Jewish friends are not representative of the vast majority of Jews in this country, who are very scared at how much Corbyn will embolden anti-Semites and normalise such positions.

That, and John McDonnell plans to destroy the entire basis of the economy by setting aside the right to private property with a mass programme of expropriations.

Byronic

egg said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

eek said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Gabs2 said:

So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.

1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October

Then two likely results:

6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October

Or:

6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?

ICYMI

Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)

1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.

2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.

Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.

Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too frit

Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.

No. Labour, especially Corbyn, are too dim, desperate and greedy to realise they are best served by waiting. GE in October if Surrender Bill passes.

JBriskinindyref2

egg said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

eek said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Gabs2 said:

So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.

1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October

Then two likely results:

6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October

Or:

6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?

ICYMI

Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)

1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.

2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.

Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.

Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too frit

Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.

As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed On

Chris

RobD said:

I think we have a winner for the JRM pictures:

https://twitter.com/oisingrip/status/1169163390754926592/photo/1

A collection from ITV:
https://www.itv.com/news/2019-09-04/jacob-rees-mogg-gets-meme-treatment-after-commons-lie-down-goes-viral/

Gallowgate

Cicero said:

I think the past 24 hours have been utterly devastating for the Conservatives. Worse than Black Wednesday by a significant factor.

The optics are truly awful. Starting with Johnson's bullshit speech outside Number 10 being drowned out by booing. Losing a phlanx of the most solidly Tory MPs you could imagine through your own childish intransigence. The utterly bollocks "rowing back from austerity", Lee crossing the floor, the much bigger defeat than expected and the body language of Rees Mogg. 100,000 signing up to vote in 24 hours- the *same 24 hours* as the Tory government imploded.

This is the inflection point when the Tories can't get it back.

I think the polls will be increasingly terrifying for Johnson- no one likes losers, and they particularly don't like entitled bastard losers.

I also think that tactical voting against the Tories will accelerate the losses they are going to make.

1997 may not be the low point for the Tories- this time I don't think that they can come back.

I wish I agreed with you but I don’t. Boris is playing to the gallery and it will be popular.

How popular? Who can say.

Byronic

JBriskinindyref2 said:

egg said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

eek said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Gabs2 said:

So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.

1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October

Then two likely results:

6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October

Or:

6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?

ICYMI

Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)

1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.

2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.

Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.

Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too frit

Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.

As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed On

How do they VONC themselves?!

Scrapheap_as_was

These 2 Aussies are 100% nailed on to get centuries.... sure as sure can be. Yes sir.

Chris

Byronic said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

egg said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

eek said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Gabs2 said:

So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.

1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October

Then two likely results:

6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October

Or:

6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?

ICYMI

Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)

1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.

2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.

Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.

Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too frit

Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.

As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed On

How do they VONC themselves?!

With the help of their majority of -40.

Noo

Gabs2 said:

Noo said:

I've been thinking hard about yesterday's developments and the part the Labour Party has played in trying to prevent no deal. And for the first time in my life I'm coming around to the idea of voting for them.

I haven't yet made up my mind, and I think it's still less than 50% chance I'll vote for them. But it's always been 0% chance at every previous election, so something profound has changed for me.

No I don't really want Corbyn in be PM. Yes the antisemitism bothers me a great deal, but I'm taking my lead from two Jewish friends who don't think it's as bad as it's made out (one of them is in fact a Labour member, her husband is a now-homeless Conservative voter).

I am a floating voter, so I'm not nailing any colours to the mast, and a lot might change between now and polling day, whenever that may be. But part of my thinking is that I would like to give this Conservative government the kicking of a lifetime, and voting for Corbyn feels like *one* way of achieving that.

Happy to be persuaded out of this almost-certain folly. If anyone has a better idea of legally registering my disgust at this Boris Johnson government that does not involve voting for Corbyn's lot, I'm all ears.

Spoil your ballot with necessary crude language. Please don't vote for a man that commemorates Jew murderers. Your Jewish friends are not representative of the vast majority of Jews in this country, who are very scared at how much Corbyn will embolden anti-Semites and normalise such positions.

Spoiling my ballot is off the table. I will vote for SOMEONE.

Nigel_Foremain

Boris's only achievement so far, he makes Theresa May look good! This article makes very valid points:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/no-wonder-theresa-may-was-smiling-boris-johnsons-chaotic-brexit-means-nothing-has-changed/ar-AAGMTAm?ocid=spartanntp

eristdoof

Gabs2 said:

So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.

1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October

Then two likely results:

6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October

Or:

6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?

For your "a" route, there does need to be atleast a "working majority", even a majority of +15 could be close. Although the PM would be putting huge pressure on MPs by saying "the electorate has voted for no-deal" there will probably still be 5 or 10 Conservative MPs who think that no-deal is completely unacceptable, and the threat of losing their seat is weak when there is 5 and a half years until the next election, and you have just been reelected as a known Wet.

For your "b" route it will be very dependent on the make-up of the hung parliament. But I think it will be very difficult to see a no-deal on 31st Oct if parliament is hung.

The important thing is to ensure that Mr Cummings cannot wheedle a no-deal through the back door by some cunning plan.

Pulpstar

Chris said:

Byronic said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

egg said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

eek said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Gabs2 said:

So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.

1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October

Then two likely results:

6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October

Or:

6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?

ICYMI

Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)

1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.

2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.

Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.

Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too frit

Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.

As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed On

How do they VONC themselves?!

With the help of their majority of -40.

Johnson loyalists + SNP gives the numbers if they want to pursue this route.

eek

Gallowgate said:

Cicero said:

I think the past 24 hours have been utterly devastating for the Conservatives. Worse than Black Wednesday by a significant factor.

The optics are truly awful. Starting with Johnson's bullshit speech outside Number 10 being drowned out by booing. Losing a phlanx of the most solidly Tory MPs you could imagine through your own childish intransigence. The utterly bollocks "rowing back from austerity", Lee crossing the floor, the much bigger defeat than expected and the body language of Rees Mogg. 100,000 signing up to vote in 24 hours- the *same 24 hours* as the Tory government imploded.

This is the inflection point when the Tories can't get it back.

I think the polls will be increasingly terrifying for Johnson- no one likes losers, and they particularly don't like entitled bastard losers.

I also think that tactical voting against the Tories will accelerate the losses they are going to make.

1997 may not be the low point for the Tories- this time I don't think that they can come back.

I wish I agreed with you but I don’t. Boris is playing to the gallery and it will be popular.

How popular? Who can say.

Boris is playing to the gallery but I suspect as in 1997 a lot of former Tory voters won't be voting (or if they do vote voting for someone else).

Byronic

Chris said:

Byronic said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

egg said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

eek said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Gabs2 said:

So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.

1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October

Then two likely results:

6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October

Or:

6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?

ICYMI

Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)

1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.

2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.

Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.

Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too frit

Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.

As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed On

How do they VONC themselves?!

With the help of their majority of -40.

My brain hurts. Please elaborate. Doesn’t FTPA require 2/3 of the House? Or can the government just dissolve itself?

JBriskinindyref2

Byronic said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

egg said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

eek said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Gabs2 said:

So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.

1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October

Then two likely results:

6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October

Or:

6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?

ICYMI

Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)

1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.

2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.

Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.

Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too frit

Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.

As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed On

How do they VONC themselves?!

Yeah - I'm not quite sure of that bit. But if VONC is called tory MPs could vote against government.

Somethings got to give.

Big_G_NorthWales

Cicero said:

I think the past 24 hours have been utterly devastating for the Conservatives. Worse than Black Wednesday by a significant factor.

The optics are truly awful. Starting with Johnson's bullshit speech outside Number 10 being drowned out by booing. Losing a phlanx of the most solidly Tory MPs you could imagine through your own childish intransigence. The utterly bollocks "rowing back from austerity", Lee crossing the floor, the much bigger defeat than expected and the body language of Rees Mogg. 100,000 signing up to vote in 24 hours- the *same 24 hours* as the Tory government imploded.

This is the inflection point when the Tories can't get it back.

I think the polls will be increasingly terrifying for Johnson- no one likes losers, and they particularly don't like entitled bastard losers.

I also think that tactical voting against the Tories will accelerate the losses they are going to make.

1997 may not be the low point for the Tories- this time I don't think that they can come back.

I resigned from the party today but that does not mean I will enable Corbyn to take power and indeed Phil Hammond has just said that in the HOC

I would caution assuming the polls are going to change against the government, they could but until a trend indicates so I am in the camp that it is wide open

Gallowgate

Gabs2 said:

Noo said:

I've been thinking hard about yesterday's developments and the part the Labour Party has played in trying to prevent no deal. And for the first time in my life I'm coming around to the idea of voting for them.

I haven't yet made up my mind, and I think it's still less than 50% chance I'll vote for them. But it's always been 0% chance at every previous election, so something profound has changed for me.

No I don't really want Corbyn in be PM. Yes the antisemitism bothers me a great deal, but I'm taking my lead from two Jewish friends who don't think it's as bad as it's made out (one of them is in fact a Labour member, her husband is a now-homeless Conservative voter).

I am a floating voter, so I'm not nailing any colours to the mast, and a lot might change between now and polling day, whenever that may be. But part of my thinking is that I would like to give this Conservative government the kicking of a lifetime, and voting for Corbyn feels like *one* way of achieving that.

Happy to be persuaded out of this almost-certain folly. If anyone has a better idea of legally registering my disgust at this Boris Johnson government that does not involve voting for Corbyn's lot, I'm all ears.

Spoil your ballot with necessary crude language. Please don't vote for a man that commemorates Jew murderers. Your Jewish friends are not representative of the vast majority of Jews in this country, who are very scared at how much Corbyn will embolden anti-Semites and normalise such positions.

I myself am Jewish and the reason my grandparents came to this country as refugees was because of anti Jewish pogroms in Russia and Ukraine.

I also really do not like Corbyn and would hate him to be our PM.

However, if it came to it, I would vote for my local Labour candidate (she is great) if it was needed in a polarizing election.

A culture war might require me to take a side.

Ishmael_Z

Cicero said:

I think the past 24 hours have been utterly devastating for the Conservatives. Worse than Black Wednesday by a significant factor.

The optics are truly awful. Starting with Johnson's bullshit speech outside Number 10 being drowned out by booing. Losing a phlanx of the most solidly Tory MPs you could imagine through your own childish intransigence. The utterly bollocks "rowing back from austerity", Lee crossing the floor, the much bigger defeat than expected and the body language of Rees Mogg. 100,000 signing up to vote in 24 hours- the *same 24 hours* as the Tory government imploded.

This is the inflection point when the Tories can't get it back.

I think the polls will be increasingly terrifying for Johnson- no one likes losers, and they particularly don't like entitled bastard losers.

I also think that tactical voting against the Tories will accelerate the losses they are going to make.

1997 may not be the low point for the Tories- this time I don't think that they can come back.

He is worse than Brown, possibly worse than May. There was me thinking: at least he can think on his feet. Now I am thinking that either I am entirely misremembering his performances on HIGNFY, or they were entirely scripted.

egg

JBriskinindyref2 said:

egg said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

eek said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Gabs2 said:

So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.

1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October

Then two likely results:

6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October

Or:

6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?

ICYMI

Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)

1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.

2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.

Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.

Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too frit

Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.

As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed On

It hasn’t got the numbers to commit suicide. This truly is in office but not in power.

Black_Rook

Cicero said:

I think the past 24 hours have been utterly devastating for the Conservatives. Worse than Black Wednesday by a significant factor.

The optics are truly awful. Starting with Johnson's bullshit speech outside Number 10 being drowned out by booing. Losing a phlanx of the most solidly Tory MPs you could imagine through your own childish intransigence. The utterly bollocks "rowing back from austerity", Lee crossing the floor, the much bigger defeat than expected and the body language of Rees Mogg. 100,000 signing up to vote in 24 hours- the *same 24 hours* as the Tory government imploded.

This is the inflection point when the Tories can't get it back.

I think the polls will be increasingly terrifying for Johnson- no one likes losers, and they particularly don't like entitled bastard losers.

I also think that tactical voting against the Tories will accelerate the losses they are going to make.

1997 may not be the low point for the Tories- this time I don't think that they can come back.

The Tories scraped in at just over 30% of the vote even in 1997. They've been written off before, in error. You *might* be correct, but I'll believe it when I see it.

Besides, this is a potentially very complex election, in which four and possibly five parties could poll over 10% in England, as well as in Scotland and Wales. If the Tories manage to hold on to 30% of the vote then they could win an outright majority if it stacks up in the right places.

In short, nobody has the faintest idea of how this is all going to pan out.

Chris

RobD said:

Chris said:

RobD said:

Chris said:

Does anyone know whether there was any explanation of why the Queen's consent was not required?

Because Bercow said so....

I mean did he give any explanation, as he did in the case of Cooper-Letwin.

Just say if you don't know ;-)

You got me. I've not seen any official explanation yet. You could argue it infringes a little bit on the prerogative power to negotiation with other countries. But that'd be a weak case in my not-lawyer opinion.

Robert Craig's lawyerly opinion seemed convincing to me, though I am also not a lawyer:
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/09/02/proponents-of-the-new-bill-to-stop-no-deal-face-a-significant-dilemma-over-queens-consent/

He is not convinced he was wrong:
https://twitter.com/RobertCraig3/status/1169261742641356800

Dadge

JBriskinindyref2 said:

egg said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

eek said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Gabs2 said:

So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.

1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October

Then two likely results:

6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October

Or:

6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?

ICYMI

Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)

1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.

2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.

Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.

Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too frit

Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.

As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed On

That doesn't guarantee an election though does it.

Beibheirli_C

Parliament is Samuel L Jackson? Who does Jihn Travolta get to play?

JBriskinindyref2

Byronic said:

Chris said:

Byronic said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

egg said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

eek said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Gabs2 said:

So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.

1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October

Then two likely results:

6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October

Or:

6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?

ICYMI

Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)

1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.

2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.

Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.

Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too frit

Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.

As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed On

How do they VONC themselves?!

With the help of their majority of -40.

My brain hurts. Please elaborate. Doesn’t FTPA require 2/3 of the House? Or can the government just dissolve itself?

No, with a VONC a simple majority is required and then there's a 14 day period where no-one knows what happens. I'm not entirely sure who can call a VONC though, I think maybe just Corbyn.

Pulpstar

egg said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

egg said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

eek said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Gabs2 said:

So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.

1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October

Then two likely results:

6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October

Or:

6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?

ICYMI

Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)

1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.

2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.

Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.

Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too frit

Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.

As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed On

It hasn’t got the numbers to commit suicide. This truly is in office but not in power.

SNP can help kill it as they want a GE. But yes, on its own it doesn't have the numbers right now

Black_Rook

egg said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

egg said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

eek said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Gabs2 said:

So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.

1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October

Then two likely results:

6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October

Or:

6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?

ICYMI

Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)

1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.

2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.

Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.

Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too frit

Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.

As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed On

It hasn’t got the numbers to commit suicide. This truly is in office but not in power.

Comes back to what I've been saying for the last couple of days. If Johnson wants a shot at this election, he'll have to resign and do it as LOTO rather than PM.

eristdoof

JBriskinindyref2 said:

egg said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

eek said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Gabs2 said:

So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.

1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October

Then two likely results:

6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October

Or:

6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?

ICYMI

Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)

1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.

2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.

Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.

Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too frit

Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.

As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed On

I thought a government could only VoC itself.

noneoftheabove

Cicero said:

I think the past 24 hours have been utterly devastating for the Conservatives. Worse than Black Wednesday by a significant factor.

The optics are truly awful. Starting with Johnson's bullshit speech outside Number 10 being drowned out by booing. Losing a phlanx of the most solidly Tory MPs you could imagine through your own childish intransigence. The utterly bollocks "rowing back from austerity", Lee crossing the floor, the much bigger defeat than expected and the body language of Rees Mogg. 100,000 signing up to vote in 24 hours- the *same 24 hours* as the Tory government imploded.

This is the inflection point when the Tories can't get it back.

I think the polls will be increasingly terrifying for Johnson- no one likes losers, and they particularly don't like entitled bastard losers.

I also think that tactical voting against the Tories will accelerate the losses they are going to make.

1997 may not be the low point for the Tories- this time I don't think that they can come back.

We can see even on here the country is divided. It will be popular and cheered on by some and detested by others. Large parts of the country see the same events in completely opposite fashions, and get surprised when the others dont react in the same way.

It is hard to see why we won't end up with another hung parliament without a majority for anything, and politicians without even the slightest intention of either compromising or leading by trying to convince others rather than gaming the system.

Dadge

Gabs2 said:

Noo said:

I've been thinking hard about yesterday's developments and the part the Labour Party has played in trying to prevent no deal. And for the first time in my life I'm coming around to the idea of voting for them.

I haven't yet made up my mind, and I think it's still less than 50% chance I'll vote for them. But it's always been 0% chance at every previous election, so something profound has changed for me.

No I don't really want Corbyn in be PM. Yes the antisemitism bothers me a great deal, but I'm taking my lead from two Jewish friends who don't think it's as bad as it's made out (one of them is in fact a Labour member, her husband is a now-homeless Conservative voter).

I am a floating voter, so I'm not nailing any colours to the mast, and a lot might change between now and polling day, whenever that may be. But part of my thinking is that I would like to give this Conservative government the kicking of a lifetime, and voting for Corbyn feels like *one* way of achieving that.

Happy to be persuaded out of this almost-certain folly. If anyone has a better idea of legally registering my disgust at this Boris Johnson government that does not involve voting for Corbyn's lot, I'm all ears.

Spoil your ballot with necessary crude language. Please don't vote for a man that commemorates Jew murderers. Your Jewish friends are not representative of the vast majority of Jews in this country, who are very scared at how much Corbyn will embolden anti-Semites and normalise such positions.

Good grief. I'm not going to be cowed into giving BoJo a majority by trolling from Russian bots.

GIN1138

Gabs2 said:

So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.

1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October

Then two likely results:

6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October

Or:

6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?

I don't think they'll get to an election through a VONC but rather from passing a one line bill stating that the election will be on "X" day.

That only requires a majority of one.

rkrkrk

Noo said:

I've been thinking hard about yesterday's developments and the part the Labour Party has played in trying to prevent no deal. And for the first time in my life I'm coming around to the idea of voting for them.

I haven't yet made up my mind, and I think it's still less than 50% chance I'll vote for them. But it's always been 0% chance at every previous election, so something profound has changed for me.

No I don't really want Corbyn in be PM. Yes the antisemitism bothers me a great deal, but I'm taking my lead from two Jewish friends who don't think it's as bad as it's made out (one of them is in fact a Labour member, her husband is a now-homeless Conservative voter).

I am a floating voter, so I'm not nailing any colours to the mast, and a lot might change between now and polling day, whenever that may be. But part of my thinking is that I would like to give this Conservative government the kicking of a lifetime, and voting for Corbyn feels like *one* way of achieving that.

Happy to be persuaded out of this almost-certain folly. If anyone has a better idea of legally registering my disgust at this Boris Johnson government that does not involve voting for Corbyn's lot, I'm all ears.

Voting Lib Dem would seem to solve your dilemma.

egg

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Byronic said:

Chris said:

Byronic said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

egg said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

eek said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Gabs2 said:

So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.

1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October

Then two likely results:

6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October

Or:

6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?

ICYMI

Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)

1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.

2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.

Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.

Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too frit

Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.

As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed On

How do they VONC themselves?!

With the help of their majority of -40.

My brain hurts. Please elaborate. Doesn’t FTPA require 2/3 of the House? Or can the government just dissolve itself?

No, with a VONC a simple majority is required and then there's a 14 day period where no-one knows what happens. I'm not entirely sure who can call a VONC though, I think maybe just Corbyn.

Boris tries to vonc himself. It’s pointed out in debate the possibly this could result in a PM Corbyn. Boris loses such vote by about 600

Chris

Byronic said:

Chris said:

Byronic said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

egg said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

eek said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Gabs2 said:

So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.

1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October

Then two likely results:

6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October

Or:

6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?

ICYMI

Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)

1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.

2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.

Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.

Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too frit

Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.

As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed On

How do they VONC themselves?!

With the help of their majority of -40.

My brain hurts. Please elaborate. Doesn’t FTPA require 2/3 of the House? Or can the government just dissolve itself?

I was suggesting they might find it difficult to VONC themselves as they don't have a majority!

But in theory as well as the 2/3 option, there is the option of a VONC in the government, and an election will follow if there isn't a VOC within the following fortnight.

AndyJS

How quickly could the FTPA be repealed?

JBriskinindyref2

eristdoof said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

egg said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

eek said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Gabs2 said:

So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.

1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October

Then two likely results:

6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October

Or:

6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?

ICYMI

Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)

1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.

2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.

Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.

Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too frit

Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.

As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed On

I thought a government could only VoC itself.

Err, it's a fluid situation (i.e I am at the limit of my knowledge)

Noo

Gallowgate said:

Gabs2 said:

Noo said:

I've been thinking hard about yesterday's developments and the part the Labour Party has played in trying to prevent no deal. And for the first time in my life I'm coming around to the idea of voting for them.

I haven't yet made up my mind, and I think it's still less than 50% chance I'll vote for them. But it's always been 0% chance at every previous election, so something profound has changed for me.

No I don't really want Corbyn in be PM. Yes the antisemitism bothers me a great deal, but I'm taking my lead from two Jewish friends who don't think it's as bad as it's made out (one of them is in fact a Labour member, her husband is a now-homeless Conservative voter).

I am a floating voter, so I'm not nailing any colours to the mast, and a lot might change between now and polling day, whenever that may be. But part of my thinking is that I would like to give this Conservative government the kicking of a lifetime, and voting for Corbyn feels like *one* way of achieving that.

Happy to be persuaded out of this almost-certain folly. If anyone has a better idea of legally registering my disgust at this Boris Johnson government that does not involve voting for Corbyn's lot, I'm all ears.

Spoil your ballot with necessary crude language. Please don't vote for a man that commemorates Jew murderers. Your Jewish friends are not representative of the vast majority of Jews in this country, who are very scared at how much Corbyn will embolden anti-Semites and normalise such positions.

I myself am Jewish and the reason my grandparents came to this country as refugees was because of anti Jewish pogroms in Russia and Ukraine.

I also really do not like Corbyn and would hate him to be our PM.

However, if it came to it, I would vote for my local Labour candidate (she is great) if it was needed in a polarizing election.

A culture war might require me to take a side.

Sounds like you would recommend voting for another party then.
But what's the best way to kick the Tories in the coming election? That's as important to me as the policies of the party I will vote for. I'm really itching to maximise the force with which I say "no" to Boris. I don't feel like voting, say, Green is going to be felt as much.

I live in England, so there is no SNP/Plaid Cymru/Sinn Fein option open to me.

Byronic

Black_Rook said:

egg said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

egg said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

eek said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Gabs2 said:

So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.

1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October

Then two likely results:

6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October

Or:

6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?

ICYMI

Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)

1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.

2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.

Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.

Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too frit

Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.

As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed On

It hasn’t got the numbers to commit suicide. This truly is in office but not in power.

Comes back to what I've been saying for the last couple of days. If Johnson wants a shot at this election, he'll have to resign and do it as LOTO rather than PM.

So Corbyn would be a caretaker PM?

But if that happens Corbs would secure a 6 month extension and call a referendum. Which would change everything

Gabs2

Gallowgate said:

Gabs2 said:

Noo said:

I've been thinking hard about yesterday's developments and the part the Labour Party has played in trying to prevent no deal. And for the first time in my life I'm coming around to the idea of voting for them.

I haven't yet made up my mind, and I think it's still less than 50% chance I'll vote for them. But it's always been 0% chance at every previous election, so something profound has changed for me.

No I don't really want Corbyn in be PM. Yes the antisemitism bothers me a great deal, but I'm taking my lead from two Jewish friends who don't think it's as bad as it's made out (one of them is in fact a Labour member, her husband is a now-homeless Conservative voter).

I am a floating voter, so I'm not nailing any colours to the mast, and a lot might change between now and polling day, whenever that may be. But part of my thinking is that I would like to give this Conservative government the kicking of a lifetime, and voting for Corbyn feels like *one* way of achieving that.

Happy to be persuaded out of this almost-certain folly. If anyone has a better idea of legally registering my disgust at this Boris Johnson government that does not involve voting for Corbyn's lot, I'm all ears.

Spoil your ballot with necessary crude language. Please don't vote for a man that commemorates Jew murderers. Your Jewish friends are not representative of the vast majority of Jews in this country, who are very scared at how much Corbyn will embolden anti-Semites and normalise such positions.

I myself am Jewish and the reason my grandparents came to this country as refugees was because of anti Jewish pogroms in Russia and Ukraine.

I also really do not like Corbyn and would hate him to be our PM.

However, if it came to it, I would vote for my local Labour candidate (she is great) if it was needed in a polarizing election.

A culture war might require me to take a side.

If you are culturally siding with the supporters of Hamas, the IRA and Black September, you are making a mistake.

Richard_Nabavi

Contrary to popular belief, isn't the current farrago evidence that the Fixed Term Parliament Act is an improvement on the previous system? I say that because, under the old system, an unelected minority PM could have crashed us out in chaos, despite the will of parliament, by using his personal power to call a GE to get parliament out of the way over the critical date. With the Act in place, the opposition parties can ensure that the options are kept open until we've had a GE and any new government can then decide what to do.

Beibheirli_C

AndyJS said:

How quickly could the FTPA be repealed?

Why should it be? The executive does not like it... tough. It is not there for their convenience

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/JamesCrisp6/status/1169267041309773827

logical_song

Noo said:

Gabs2 said:

Noo said:

I've been thinking hard about yesterday's developments and the part the Labour Party has played in trying to prevent no deal. And for the first time in my life I'm coming around to the idea of voting for them.

I haven't yet made up my mind, and I think it's still less than 50% chance I'll vote for them. But it's always been 0% chance at every previous election, so something profound has changed for me.

No I don't really want Corbyn in be PM. Yes the antisemitism bothers me a great deal, but I'm taking my lead from two Jewish friends who don't think it's as bad as it's made out (one of them is in fact a Labour member, her husband is a now-homeless Conservative voter).

I am a floating voter, so I'm not nailing any colours to the mast, and a lot might change between now and polling day, whenever that may be. But part of my thinking is that I would like to give this Conservative government the kicking of a lifetime, and voting for Corbyn feels like *one* way of achieving that.

Happy to be persuaded out of this almost-certain folly. If anyone has a better idea of legally registering my disgust at this Boris Johnson government that does not involve voting for Corbyn's lot, I'm all ears.

Spoil your ballot with necessary crude language. Please don't vote for a man that commemorates Jew murderers. Your Jewish friends are not representative of the vast majority of Jews in this country, who are very scared at how much Corbyn will embolden anti-Semites and normalise such positions.

Spoiling my ballot is off the table. I will vote for SOMEONE.

It totally depends on which constituency you are in. Who was the main challenger to the Tories in the Euros, the Locals and the last three GEs. Then decide.

Gallowgate

Gabs2 said:

Gallowgate said:

Gabs2 said:

Noo said:

I've been thinking hard about yesterday's developments and the part the Labour Party has played in trying to prevent no deal. And for the first time in my life I'm coming around to the idea of voting for them.

I haven't yet made up my mind, and I think it's still less than 50% chance I'll vote for them. But it's always been 0% chance at every previous election, so something profound has changed for me.

No I don't really want Corbyn in be PM. Yes the antisemitism bothers me a great deal, but I'm taking my lead from two Jewish friends who don't think it's as bad as it's made out (one of them is in fact a Labour member, her husband is a now-homeless Conservative voter).

I am a floating voter, so I'm not nailing any colours to the mast, and a lot might change between now and polling day, whenever that may be. But part of my thinking is that I would like to give this Conservative government the kicking of a lifetime, and voting for Corbyn feels like *one* way of achieving that.

Happy to be persuaded out of this almost-certain folly. If anyone has a better idea of legally registering my disgust at this Boris Johnson government that does not involve voting for Corbyn's lot, I'm all ears.

Spoil your ballot with necessary crude language. Please don't vote for a man that commemorates Jew murderers. Your Jewish friends are not representative of the vast majority of Jews in this country, who are very scared at how much Corbyn will embolden anti-Semites and normalise such positions.

I myself am Jewish and the reason my grandparents came to this country as refugees was because of anti Jewish pogroms in Russia and Ukraine.

I also really do not like Corbyn and would hate him to be our PM.

However, if it came to it, I would vote for my local Labour candidate (she is great) if it was needed in a polarizing election.

A culture war might require me to take a side.

If you are culturally siding with the supporters of Hamas, the IRA and Black September, you are making a mistake.

My MP is a filthy blairite lickspittle so my conscience is clear.

Chris

eristdoof said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

egg said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

eek said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Gabs2 said:

So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.

1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October

Then two likely results:

6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October

Or:

6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?

ICYMI

Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)

1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.

2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.

Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.

Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too frit

Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.

As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed On

I thought a government could only VoC itself.

I doesn't matter who votes for or against the motion. It's just a vote of confidence/no confidence in the government.

Gabs2

Byronic said:

Black_Rook said:

egg said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

egg said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

eek said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Gabs2 said:

So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.

1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October

Then two likely results:

6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October

Or:

6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?

ICYMI

Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)

1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.

2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.

Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.

Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too frit

Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.

As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed On

It hasn’t got the numbers to commit suicide. This truly is in office but not in power.

Comes back to what I've been saying for the last couple of days. If Johnson wants a shot at this election, he'll have to resign and do it as LOTO rather than PM.

So Corbyn would be a caretaker PM?

But if that happens Corbs would secure a 6 month extension and call a referendum. Which would change everything

Why would Corbyn call a referendum? He has lost much of his middle class support already. A referendum would hurt him with his working class support.

Black_Rook

eek said:

Gallowgate said:

Cicero said:

I think the past 24 hours have been utterly devastating for the Conservatives. Worse than Black Wednesday by a significant factor.

The optics are truly awful. Starting with Johnson's bullshit speech outside Number 10 being drowned out by booing. Losing a phlanx of the most solidly Tory MPs you could imagine through your own childish intransigence. The utterly bollocks "rowing back from austerity", Lee crossing the floor, the much bigger defeat than expected and the body language of Rees Mogg. 100,000 signing up to vote in 24 hours- the *same 24 hours* as the Tory government imploded.

This is the inflection point when the Tories can't get it back.

I think the polls will be increasingly terrifying for Johnson- no one likes losers, and they particularly don't like entitled bastard losers.

I also think that tactical voting against the Tories will accelerate the losses they are going to make.

1997 may not be the low point for the Tories- this time I don't think that they can come back.

I wish I agreed with you but I don’t. Boris is playing to the gallery and it will be popular.

How popular? Who can say.

Boris is playing to the gallery but I suspect as in 1997 a lot of former Tory voters won't be voting (or if they do vote voting for someone else).

The 97 landslide was based on Labour stealing large numbers of voters directly from the Tories. The complicating factor this time around is, of course, that Corbyn ain't no Blair.

Can the Conservatives keep large numbers of older and wealthier voters on side simply because, regardless of how they feel about Brexit, they're terrified of a Corbyn Government? We just don't know.

noneoftheabove

Noo said:

I've been thinking hard about yesterday's developments and the part the Labour Party has played in trying to prevent no deal. And for the first time in my life I'm coming around to the idea of voting for them.

I haven't yet made up my mind, and I think it's still less than 50% chance I'll vote for them. But it's always been 0% chance at every previous election, so something profound has changed for me.

No I don't really want Corbyn in be PM. Yes the antisemitism bothers me a great deal, but I'm taking my lead from two Jewish friends who don't think it's as bad as it's made out (one of them is in fact a Labour member, her husband is a now-homeless Conservative voter).

I am a floating voter, so I'm not nailing any colours to the mast, and a lot might change between now and polling day, whenever that may be. But part of my thinking is that I would like to give this Conservative government the kicking of a lifetime, and voting for Corbyn feels like *one* way of achieving that.

Happy to be persuaded out of this almost-certain folly. If anyone has a better idea of legally registering my disgust at this Boris Johnson government that does not involve voting for Corbyn's lot, I'm all ears.

Who is your local MP and how has he/she done? Will he/she stand up for what they believe in or follow the herd? That should have a big impact when both main party leaderships are unpalatable.

RobD

Richard_Nabavi said:

Contrary to popular belief, isn't the current farrago evidence that the Fixed Term Parliament Act is an improvement on the previous system? I say that because, under the old system, an unelected minority PM could have crashed us out in chaos, despite the will of parliament, by using his personal power to call a GE to get parliament out of the way over the critical date. With the Act in place, the opposition parties can ensure that the options are kept open until we've had a GE and any new government can then decide what to do.

Maybe in that one specific scenario it is an improvement, but forcing a government without a majority to limp along for months or years is in no-ones interest.

Beibheirli_C

Richard_Nabavi said:

Contrary to popular belief, isn't the current farrago evidence that the Fixed Term Parliament Act is an improvement on the previous system? I say that because, under the old system, an unelected minority PM could have crashed us out in chaos, despite the will of parliament, by using his personal power to call a GE to get parliament out of the way over the critical date. With the Act in place, the opposition parties can ensure that the options are kept open until we've had a GE and any new government can then decide what to do.

Great minds think alike Mr Nabavi. I was just typing a less elegant version of the same thought.

WhisperingOracle

Gabs2 said:

Gallowgate said:

Gabs2 said:

Noo said:

I've been thinking hard about yesterday's developments and the part the Labour Party has played in trying to prevent no deal. And for the first time in my life I'm coming around to the idea of voting for them.

I haven't yet made up my mind, and I think it's still less than 50% chance I'll vote for them. But it's always been 0% chance at every previous election, so something profound has changed for me.

No I don't really want Corbyn in be PM. Yes the antisemitism bothers me a great deal, but I'm taking my lead from two Jewish friends who don't think it's as bad as it's made out (one of them is in fact a Labour member, her husband is a now-homeless Conservative voter).

I am a floating voter, so I'm not nailing any colours to the mast, and a lot might change between now and polling day, whenever that may be. But part of my thinking is that I would like to give this Conservative government the kicking of a lifetime, and voting for Corbyn feels like *one* way of achieving that.

Happy to be persuaded out of this almost-certain folly. If anyone has a better idea of legally registering my disgust at this Boris Johnson government that does not involve voting for Corbyn's lot, I'm all ears.

Spoil your ballot with necessary crude language. Please don't vote for a man that commemorates Jew murderers. Your Jewish friends are not representative of the vast majority of Jews in this country, who are very scared at how much Corbyn will embolden anti-Semites and normalise such positions.

I myself am Jewish and the reason my grandparents came to this country as refugees was because of anti Jewish pogroms in Russia and Ukraine.

I also really do not like Corbyn and would hate him to be our PM.

However, if it came to it, I would vote for my local Labour candidate (she is great) if it was needed in a polarizing election.

A culture war might require me to take a side.

If you are culturally siding with the supporters of Hamas, the IRA and Black September, you are making a mistake.

This is absurdly black-and-white. My wife is Jewish and says much the same as Gallowgate.

egg

Byronic said:

Black_Rook said:

egg said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

egg said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

eek said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Gabs2 said:

So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.

1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October

Then two likely results:

6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October

Or:

6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?

ICYMI

Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)

1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.

2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.

Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.

Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too frit

Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.

As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed On

It hasn’t got the numbers to commit suicide. This truly is in office but not in power.

Comes back to what I've been saying for the last couple of days. If Johnson wants a shot at this election, he'll have to resign and do it as LOTO rather than PM.

So Corbyn would be a caretaker PM?

But if that happens Corbs would secure a 6 month extension and call a referendum. Which would change everything

Haven’t you noticed, as soon as the brexit can is kicked down the road everything stops getting excited and starts treading water.

Richard_Nabavi

RobD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Contrary to popular belief, isn't the current farrago evidence that the Fixed Term Parliament Act is an improvement on the previous system? I say that because, under the old system, an unelected minority PM could have crashed us out in chaos, despite the will of parliament, by using his personal power to call a GE to get parliament out of the way over the critical date. With the Act in place, the opposition parties can ensure that the options are kept open until we've had a GE and any new government can then decide what to do.

Maybe in that one specific scenario it is an improvement, but forcing a government without a majority to limp along for months or years is in no-ones interest.

But in practice that is extremely unlikely, because either it would lose a VONC or the opposition would happily support an election.

Byronic

Gabs2 said:

Byronic said:

Black_Rook said:

egg said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

egg said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

eek said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Gabs2 said:

So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.

1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October

Then two likely results:

6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October

Or:

6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?

ICYMI

Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)

1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.

2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.

Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.

Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too frit

Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.

As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed On

It hasn’t got the numbers to commit suicide. This truly is in office but not in power.

Comes back to what I've been saying for the last couple of days. If Johnson wants a shot at this election, he'll have to resign and do it as LOTO rather than PM.

So Corbyn would be a caretaker PM?

But if that happens Corbs would secure a 6 month extension and call a referendum. Which would change everything

Why would Corbyn call a referendum? He has lost much of his middle class support already. A referendum would hurt him with his working class support.

Are you serious? Of course he’d call a referendum. He’s already promised one. He’d be lynched by his own party if he didn’t. It’s the one policy area where he’s HAD to surrender, despite his personal reluctance

Gabs2

WhisperingOracle said:

Gabs2 said:

Gallowgate said:

Gabs2 said:

Noo said:

I've been thinking hard about yesterday's developments and the part the Labour Party has played in trying to prevent no deal. And for the first time in my life I'm coming around to the idea of voting for them.

I haven't yet made up my mind, and I think it's still less than 50% chance I'll vote for them. But it's always been 0% chance at every previous election, so something profound has changed for me.

No I don't really want Corbyn in be PM. Yes the antisemitism bothers me a great deal, but I'm taking my lead from two Jewish friends who don't think it's as bad as it's made out (one of them is in fact a Labour member, her husband is a now-homeless Conservative voter).

I am a floating voter, so I'm not nailing any colours to the mast, and a lot might change between now and polling day, whenever that may be. But part of my thinking is that I would like to give this Conservative government the kicking of a lifetime, and voting for Corbyn feels like *one* way of achieving that.

Happy to be persuaded out of this almost-certain folly. If anyone has a better idea of legally registering my disgust at this Boris Johnson government that does not involve voting for Corbyn's lot, I'm all ears.

Spoil your ballot with necessary crude language. Please don't vote for a man that commemorates Jew murderers. Your Jewish friends are not representative of the vast majority of Jews in this country, who are very scared at how much Corbyn will embolden anti-Semites and normalise such positions.

I myself am Jewish and the reason my grandparents came to this country as refugees was because of anti Jewish pogroms in Russia and Ukraine.

I also really do not like Corbyn and would hate him to be our PM.

However, if it came to it, I would vote for my local Labour candidate (she is great) if it was needed in a polarizing election.

A culture war might require me to take a side.

If you are culturally siding with the supporters of Hamas, the IRA and Black September, you are making a mistake.

This is absurdly black-and-white. My wife is Jewish and says much the same as Gallowgate.

Sometimes you need to see the wood for trees.

ab195

So thinking of the next two or three days only, correct me if I’m wrong but election wise it seems to look like this:

- Boris wants an election, and we can assume his 289 loyal MPs (and the DUP) would vote for it.

- Corbyn might want an election, but many of his backbenchers don’t. He seems to be saying yes, once the Queen signs the Act. Many of his backbenchers say not until after 31 Oct. They will abstain tonight be who knows about Fri/Mon.

- The SNP will vote for one once the Queen signs the Act. Presumably because they stand to gain massively.

- The LibDem position is unclear. The might be amenable as they stand to gain.

- Presumably most independents would be against both on the Brexit grounds and because they’d lose their seats. Woodcock and similar might vote for it as a way of binning Corbyn.

Is that about right? That being the case a 15 Oct election looks like a 60% chance because of Corbyn, the SNP, and the one clause Bill route. But who knows?

Noo

rkrkrk said:

Noo said:

I've been thinking hard about yesterday's developments and the part the Labour Party has played in trying to prevent no deal. And for the first time in my life I'm coming around to the idea of voting for them.

I haven't yet made up my mind, and I think it's still less than 50% chance I'll vote for them. But it's always been 0% chance at every previous election, so something profound has changed for me.

No I don't really want Corbyn in be PM. Yes the antisemitism bothers me a great deal, but I'm taking my lead from two Jewish friends who don't think it's as bad as it's made out (one of them is in fact a Labour member, her husband is a now-homeless Conservative voter).

I am a floating voter, so I'm not nailing any colours to the mast, and a lot might change between now and polling day, whenever that may be. But part of my thinking is that I would like to give this Conservative government the kicking of a lifetime, and voting for Corbyn feels like *one* way of achieving that.

Happy to be persuaded out of this almost-certain folly. If anyone has a better idea of legally registering my disgust at this Boris Johnson government that does not involve voting for Corbyn's lot, I'm all ears.

Voting Lib Dem would seem to solve your dilemma.

See, that's my default at the moment. But a lot of Conservatives will be treating the Lib Dems as their lifeboat (that friend of mine I mentioned is leaning that way). So it feels like a Lib Dem vote will fulfil the requirement of /opposing/ Boris, but not the requirement to give him the electoral kicking he deserves.

eristdoof

RobD said:

tpfkar said:

Sixteenth like the letters in Graham Brady's safe?

I know he's stood down and it'll be someone else now, but for old times sake...

And the threshold just got lower....

Is the number dependent on the number of Conservative MPs with the whip?
The rule is 15% of the Parliamentary Party.
15% of 22 is 3.3 so the number would be 3 letters fewer.

Gallowgate

Gabs2 said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Gabs2 said:

Gallowgate said:

Gabs2 said:

Noo said:

I've been thinking hard about yesterday's developments and the part the Labour Party has played in trying to prevent no deal. And for the first time in my life I'm coming around to the idea of voting for them.

I haven't yet made up my mind, and I think it's still less than 50% chance I'll vote for them. But it's always been 0% chance at every previous election, so something profound has changed for me.

No I don't really want Corbyn in be PM. Yes the antisemitism bothers me a great deal, but I'm taking my lead from two Jewish friends who don't think it's as bad as it's made out (one of them is in fact a Labour member, her husband is a now-homeless Conservative voter).

I am a floating voter, so I'm not nailing any colours to the mast, and a lot might change between now and polling day, whenever that may be. But part of my thinking is that I would like to give this Conservative government the kicking of a lifetime, and voting for Corbyn feels like *one* way of achieving that.

Happy to be persuaded out of this almost-certain folly. If anyone has a better idea of legally registering my disgust at this Boris Johnson government that does not involve voting for Corbyn's lot, I'm all ears.

Spoil your ballot with necessary crude language. Please don't vote for a man that commemorates Jew murderers. Your Jewish friends are not representative of the vast majority of Jews in this country, who are very scared at how much Corbyn will embolden anti-Semites and normalise such positions.

I myself am Jewish and the reason my grandparents came to this country as refugees was because of anti Jewish pogroms in Russia and Ukraine.

I also really do not like Corbyn and would hate him to be our PM.

However, if it came to it, I would vote for my local Labour candidate (she is great) if it was needed in a polarizing election.

A culture war might require me to take a side.

If you are culturally siding with the supporters of Hamas, the IRA and Black September, you are making a mistake.

This is absurdly black-and-white. My wife is Jewish and says much the same as Gallowgate.

Sometimes you need to see the wood for trees.

I would rather vote Lib Dem but unfortunately we don’t have proportional representation.

I will see where the wind is blowing and decide the best way to use my vote.

It’s all academic anyway as I live in a safe Labour seat.

tpfkar

egg said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

egg said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

eek said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Gabs2 said:

So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.

1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October

Then two likely results:

6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October

Or:

6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?

ICYMI

Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)

1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.

2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.

Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.

Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too frit

Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.

As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed On

It hasn’t got the numbers to commit suicide. This truly is in office but not in power.

Maybe the way to think of it is that Boris decides this job involves doing some hard work, hadn't realised that, and has had quite enough. So he goes to the palace to resign. QEII asks him to nominate a successor holding the confidence of the house - what does he say?

Gallowgate

Off topic. I will report back!

https://twitter.com/scoopford/status/1169269853657665538?s=21