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  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    DavidL said:

    Boris is not compromising one bit. Over to you EU

    The sad thing is that it May had done half of this 3 years ago we would have left in March with a deal
    You think her problem was not being divisive enough?
    Sort of. Her problem was not being firm enough. Every time someone pushed her she went in their direction rather than standing firm, especially after the election defeat.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Is this the youngest ever cabinet?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    Brom said:

    ridiculous from Corbyn asking about capital punishment

    Labour mps listening to this must despair
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    DavidL said:

    Boris is not compromising one bit. Over to you EU

    The sad thing is that it May had done half of this 3 years ago we would have left in March with a deal
    No we wouldn't have. We would then and now have faced the same options. You really think the they will blink first view still holds?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    alex. said:
    IF Labour voters get behind the LibDems in Mogg's seat, there is every chance.
    That would make no sense - Labour last polled 18,757 to the LDs 4,461.
    Yes but therein lies the issue. Look at the EU election results and the locals.
    The 2017 results are so far from recent polls that they are the worst place to start.
    The EU elections have always been taken frivolously and it is well known that the LibDems flatter to deceive at Local Elections. Both have turnouts well under 40% . Moreover, this is a seat where Labour has consistently - even in 2010 - been the main challenger.
    With respect you do know there has been an earthquake in politics ripping up past history

    Sadly for labour they are caught in a pincer movement between the Conservatives and Lib Dems who are now the respected party for those who want to remain
    Why is Labour ahead with Survation, Comres, and Opinium ? On the basis of those findings , a voter would have to be pretty psephologically illiterate to suggest that Labour voters should tactically support the LDs there - though such advice would delight JRM. We had many polls at the 2010 GE putiing the LDs in first place nationally with over 30% vote shares , and we know how that turned out a few days later - ie the LDs actually LOST seats! LD support is very soft - 'easy come - easy go'.
    Labour are falling like a stone
    Not according to Survation, Comres and Opinium.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Boris is not compromising one bit. Over to you EU

    Didn't Boris back the WA on its third vote?
    Yes but he is uncompromising in binning it
    He is an utter arsehole. How can he have supported something so recently that he now wants to bin uncompromisingly?
    is this the first time you have observed our politicans ?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,451

    Brom said:

    ridiculous from Corbyn asking about capital punishment

    Labour mps listening to this must despair
    Not very subtle. Better to have gently turned the screw on Boris' liberal tendencies compared to Patel's socially conservative ones.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    Brom said:

    ridiculous from Corbyn asking about capital punishment

    Labour mps listening to this must despair
    Why ? It is a perfectly reasonable question. Patel has said on many occasions on record that she wants to bring back capital punishment. She is now the Home Secretary.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,695
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    alex. said:
    IF Labour voters get behind the LibDems in Mogg's seat, there is every chance.
    That would make no sense - Labour last polled 18,757 to the LDs 4,461.
    Yes but therein lies the issue. Look at the EU election results and the locals.
    The 2017 results are so far from recent polls that they are the worst place to start.
    The EU elections have always been taken frivolously and it is well known that the LibDems flatter to deceive at Local Elections. Both have turnouts well under 40% . Moreover, this is a seat where Labour has consistently - even in 2010 - been the main challenger.
    With respect you do know there has been an earthquake in politics ripping up past history

    Sadly for labour they are caught in a pincer movement between the Conservatives and Lib Dems who are now the respected party for those who want to remain
    Why is Labour ahead with Survation, Comres, and Opinium ? On the basis of those findings , a voter would have to be pretty psephologically illiterate to suggest that Labour voters should tactically support the LDs there - though such advice would delight JRM. We had many polls at the 2010 GE putiing the LDs in first place nationally with over 30% vote shares , and we know how that turned out a few days later - ie the LDs actually LOST seats! LD support is very soft - 'easy come - easy go'.
    And easy come again (if that doesn't sound too arrogant). Yes it is soft so there are seats that Labour can't win, but when the LDs are in the doldrums Lab appear in 2nd place with the LDs far behind. Lab don't win them, but when LDs recover they can. Hence the tactical vote suggestion.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    Brom said:

    ridiculous from Corbyn asking about capital punishment

    He wants it brought back? :open_mouth:
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337

    Brom said:

    ridiculous from Corbyn asking about capital punishment

    Labour mps listening to this must despair
    Why ? It is a perfectly reasonable question. Patel has said on many occasions on record that she wants to bring back capital punishment. She is now the Home Secretary.
    Who doesn't run justice policy.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,695
    Boris and JRM are good on their feet. Have to give them that.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,281
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:



    Most people won't understand the minutiae of why it would or wouldn't work they will just see that it is Swinson that is leading the charge against BoJo while Jezza seems frit.

    As @HYUFD has noted, she is looking more like leader of the opposition than Corbyn.

    She looked immature on Newsnight when the interviewer asked her why she was offering to work with Corbyn on a VONC when she'd just said she wouldn't work with him in Government. Easy enough question to handle, but she nervously gabbled instead of replying calmly. It's early days and she'll learn, if there's time, but is there?
    Didn't see it. And I'm not convinced you are the impartial observer I would want an account from, Nick.
    It is on iplayer. Since, as NP says, and is self-evident, Swinson will get better with practice, I'm not sure how much it matters in the long term. In the short term, there is the Brecon & Radnor by-election but not much else.

    A bigger problem for Swinson, as it was for Cable and Farron, is that the LibDems are no longer our third party (the SNP has more seats and DUP more influence) so they are no longer needed for balance on news and current affairs programmes; nor are they guaranteed a question at PMQs.
    That was then. This is now. We are in different times. No reason the LibDems can't put on a shedload of votes. The polls suggest it is not an impossible ask.
    They're actually fairly close to the point where a small increase in support would produce a huge increase in seats at a GE. The centre ground is pretty empty too, so the opportunity is there for them.

    We have been there before though and it's all fizzled out, so nobody should be jumping to conclusions. Nevertheless I wouldn't be sure where to put the limit on their upper limit.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    Boris is storming this
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    kjh said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    alex. said:
    IF Labour voters get behind the LibDems in Mogg's seat, there is every chance.
    That would make no sense - Labour last polled 18,757 to the LDs 4,461.
    Yes but therein lies the issue. Look at the EU election results and the locals.
    The 2017 results are so far from recent polls that they are the worst place to start.
    The EU elections have always been taken frivolously and it is well known that the LibDems flatter to deceive at Local Elections. Both have turnouts well under 40% . Moreover, this is a seat where Labour has consistently - even in 2010 - been the main challenger.
    With respect you do know there has been an earthquake in politics ripping up past history

    Sadly for labour they are caught in a pincer movement between the Conservatives and Lib Dems who are now the respected party for those who want to remain
    Why is Labour ahead with Survation, Comres, and Opinium ? On the basis of those findings , a voter would have to be pretty psephologically illiterate to suggest that Labour voters should tactically support the LDs there - though such advice would delight JRM. We had many polls at the 2010 GE putiing the LDs in first place nationally with over 30% vote shares , and we know how that turned out a few days later - ie the LDs actually LOST seats! LD support is very soft - 'easy come - easy go'.
    And easy come again (if that doesn't sound too arrogant). Yes it is soft so there are seats that Labour can't win, but when the LDs are in the doldrums Lab appear in 2nd place with the LDs far behind. Lab don't win them, but when LDs recover they can. Hence the tactical vote suggestion.
    But not in seats such as Somerset NE!
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    Boris is storming this

    Noticeably, your "unhappiness" with the BJ government lasted about 12 hours. All is forgiven, eh !
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    Corbyn excellent here. He's still very much in the game.

    "Britain Trump to sell the NHS to shady American capitalists".

    I like that. That could hurt. I can see it on a bus.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749

    Boris is storming this

    Noticeably, your "unhappiness" with the BJ government lasted about 12 hours. All is forgiven, eh !
    Not at all. I speak as I see and Boris is filleting labour
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,707
    On this:
    https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1154158878860255232?s=19

    Do we reckon there are any remainiac Tories who would hold their seats if they jumped and ran as independent Conservatives?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,281
    tlg86 said:

    Brom said:

    ridiculous from Corbyn asking about capital punishment

    He wants it brought back? :open_mouth:
    Not for all crimes. Offences involving pineapple toppings perhaps.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Dadge said:

    Swinson is absolutely right to call for a VONC and Corbyn is being predictably useless.

    The idea that a failed VONC “bolsters Boris” is being too clever by half. This is not test cricket, it is 20/20. There are just 98 days until October 31.

    A VONC has every justification since Boris and his platform have no actual mandate, his Cabinet is full of more crooks than Belmarsh prison, and the Home Sec wants to bring back hanging.

    Labour have a point. Hard to see any Tories voting against Boris on day 1. If any of them were thinking of doing so, Corbyn would have this information.
    Quite. There is not just no point is tabling a VONC that will fail. Itr would be seriously counter-productive. People like Swinson who suggest it tend to have another agenda.
    “Will fail” is a strange and defeatist assumption given a notional government majority of perhaps 2.
    Stranger still from a party calling for a general election, for which there is extremely limited time before the end of October.

    Almost as though Corbyn wants Brexit to happen and someone else to shoulder the blame.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    The 2019 GE seems to have started. Boris battering Jezza over Iran and Press TV amongst other stuff.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551

    Boris is storming this

    He needs voice training. He is shrill and gabbling.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Johnson's plan is what he said it was all along. Who could have thought it?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    Not sure accusing Corbyn of being a Remainer is the best strategy.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Nigelb said:

    Dadge said:

    Swinson is absolutely right to call for a VONC and Corbyn is being predictably useless.

    The idea that a failed VONC “bolsters Boris” is being too clever by half. This is not test cricket, it is 20/20. There are just 98 days until October 31.

    A VONC has every justification since Boris and his platform have no actual mandate, his Cabinet is full of more crooks than Belmarsh prison, and the Home Sec wants to bring back hanging.

    Labour have a point. Hard to see any Tories voting against Boris on day 1. If any of them were thinking of doing so, Corbyn would have this information.
    Quite. There is not just no point is tabling a VONC that will fail. Itr would be seriously counter-productive. People like Swinson who suggest it tend to have another agenda.
    “Will fail” is a strange and defeatist assumption given a notional government majority of perhaps 2.
    Stranger still from a party calling for a general election, for which there is extremely limited time before the end of October.

    Almost as though Corbyn wants Brexit to happen and someone else to shoulder the blame.
    I thought Thatcher and Callaghan fought 6-7 VONC's before the final one was won by the majority of 1.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Fenster said:

    Is this the youngest ever cabinet?

    Undoubtedly, many of them were born in the 1970s. ;)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    I never expected that barnstorming response from Boris
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    dixiedean said:

    Not sure accusing Corbyn of being a Remainer is the best strategy.

    I dunno. If Swinson accuses Corbyn of being a Leaver then voters won't know what to believe.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    This is why Tory MPs have stealed themselves and in many case sold their souls and put Boris as leader.

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Boris is storming this

    Noticeably, your "unhappiness" with the BJ government lasted about 12 hours. All is forgiven, eh !
    Big G's Long March toward Borisdom is fascinating considering, at one point, he was going to leave the party if Boris became leader.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,451

    On this:
    https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1154158878860255232?s=19

    Do we reckon there are any remainiac Tories who would hold their seats if they jumped and ran as independent Conservatives?

    I really don't think so. You'd need a 50%+ Tory vote in Remainshire, of which there were basically none. Rushcliffe?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,281
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    alex. said:
    IF Labour voters get behind the LibDems in Mogg's seat, there is every chance.
    That would make no sense - Labour last polled 18,757 to the LDs 4,461.
    Yes but therein lies the issue. Look at the EU election results and the locals.
    The 2017 results are so far from recent polls that they are the worst place to start.
    The EU elections have always been taken frivolously and it is well known that the LibDems flatter to deceive at Local Elections. Both have turnouts well under 40% . Moreover, this is a seat where Labour has consistently - even in 2010 - been the main challenger.
    With respect you do know there has been an earthquake in politics ripping up past history

    Sadly for labour they are caught in a pincer movement between the Conservatives and Lib Dems who are now the respected party for those who want to remain
    Why is Labour ahead with Survation, Comres, and Opinium ? On the basis of those findings , a voter would have to be pretty psephologically illiterate to suggest that Labour voters should tactically support the LDs there - though such advice would delight JRM. We had many polls at the 2010 GE putiing the LDs in first place nationally with over 30% vote shares , and we know how that turned out a few days later - ie the LDs actually LOST seats! LD support is very soft - 'easy come - easy go'.
    Labour are falling like a stone
    Not according to Survation, Comres and Opinium.
    You cannot read much into them at the present and that will probably be the case for a while yet. Common sense is a as good a guide as any right now.

    Mine suggests that it's a four-horse race with huge potential for change at any moment.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,707
    Nigelb said:


    “Will fail” is a strange and defeatist assumption given a notional government majority of perhaps 2.

    Also if there are some wavering Tories out there the not-quite-a-proper-no-confidence motion is potentially a more accessible gateway drug for a proper no-confidence motion.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    Scott_P said:
    Funny how for years, awkward euroskeptic Tories were told to shut up for the good of the party by the likes of Soames and Soubry, but clearly that doesn't apply to them.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    I never expected that barnstorming response from Boris

    Sign of what's come on the campaign trail.

    Perhaps it would be better if we just got on with it now, and have that GE. Brenda will have to just cover her ears.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342

    I never expected that barnstorming response from Boris

    Word salad. Delivered with a passion May couldn't.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,281

    Scott_P said:
    Funny how for years, awkward euroskeptic Tories were told to shut up for the good of the party by the likes of Soames and Soubry, but clearly that doesn't apply to them.
    They didn't though, did they?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794
    @basicbridge and others who are banging on about the currency. I too have noticed that the pound did not fall on the accession. I would not use words like "strong" since the movements were too small to reserve the ten. However, they were not downwards.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    On this:
    https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1154158878860255232?s=19

    Do we reckon there are any remainiac Tories who would hold their seats if they jumped and ran as independent Conservatives?

    I very much hope Rory doesn't do this. We need him in the Conservatives for after the deluge.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    I hold little brief for either of them, but I foresee Jezza's going to struggle against Boris.

    May's polite, if slightly frustrated and dismissive, responses to him meant he could show some passion and occasionally come out on top - he was the one with the greater box office draw.

    BoJo will treat him like something on his shoe and wipe him off in a spirit of absolutely zero f*cks given.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    Dura_Ace said:

    Boris is storming this

    Noticeably, your "unhappiness" with the BJ government lasted about 12 hours. All is forgiven, eh !
    Big G's Long March toward Borisdom is fascinating considering, at one point, he was going to leave the party if Boris became leader.
    I will leave the party on a no deal as I have confirmed on numerous occasions
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    Ian Blackford just is a massive bag of wind, he hasnt grown in to his role at all.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    I never expected that barnstorming response from Boris

    He's good at that kind of thing, and Corbyn set himself up for it with a rambling and incoherent list of half-questions.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    Boris is storming this

    Aw falling in love. Sweet!

    But word of warning. He's a notorious cad. So don't give it up too easily.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    That was more fun than its been for years and years. A lot of people might start engaging in parliament if thats a sign of things to come.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,281

    On this:
    https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1154158878860255232?s=19

    Do we reckon there are any remainiac Tories who would hold their seats if they jumped and ran as independent Conservatives?

    I really don't think so. You'd need a 50%+ Tory vote in Remainshire, of which there were basically none. Rushcliffe?
    Yes, Clarke I think could do it. Stewart might.

    Can't think of another.

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:



    Most people won't understand the minutiae of why it would or wouldn't work they will just see that it is Swinson that is leading the charge against BoJo while Jezza seems frit.

    As @HYUFD has noted, she is looking more like leader of the opposition than Corbyn.

    She looked immature on Newsnight when the interviewer asked her why she was offering to work with Corbyn on a VONC when she'd just said she wouldn't work with him in Government. Easy enough question to handle, but she nervously gabbled instead of replying calmly. It's early days and she'll learn, if there's time, but is there?
    Didn't see it. And I'm not convinced you are the impartial observer I would want an account from, Nick.
    It is on iplayer. Since, as NP says, and is self-evident, Swinson will get better with practice, I'm not sure how much it matters in the long term. In the short term, there is the Brecon & Radnor by-election but not much else.

    A bigger problem for Swinson, as it was for Cable and Farron, is that the LibDems are no longer our third party (the SNP has more seats and DUP more influence) so they are no longer needed for balance on news and current affairs programmes; nor are they guaranteed a question at PMQs.
    Although this didn’t stop Farage.
    She needs to think like an insurgent.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited July 2019

    On this:
    https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1154158878860255232?s=19

    Do we reckon there are any remainiac Tories who would hold their seats if they jumped and ran as independent Conservatives?

    I really don't think so. You'd need a 50%+ Tory vote in Remainshire, of which there were basically none. Rushcliffe?
    Yes, Clarke I think could do it. Stewart might.

    Can't think of another.

    A lot would depend on whether the Brexit Party splits the Tory vote in a given constituency.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:
    Labour accusing somebody else of being childish and irresponsible? Would be funny under other circumstances.

    If Kinnock had the gumption to table a VoNC in 1990 when facing a government majority over 90, surely Corbyn could do so now facing a Govt majority of three?

    Or is he afraid some of his own backbenchers would abstain?
    But when the LDs went public with it instead of approaching Labour behind the scenes, they guaranteed that Corbyn couldn't go along with it. Which they knew. It wasn't a move against Boris, it was designed to make Corbyn look bad.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794
    @rcs1000

    I note your discussion about Monte Carlo. I might be wrong (and I'm sure you'll pull me up if I am) but given we know (or have estimates for) the distribution and variation of the polls and of the vote, it might be quicker to just work out the probabilities mathematically instead of setting up a simulation and deriving the probabilities of the simulation

    For the avoidance of doubt: I am not volunteering... :)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    When did "pluck" become an essential attribute? Can anyone summarise how it is advantageous to being PM?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,695
    justin124 said:

    kjh said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    alex. said:
    IF Labour voters get behind the LibDems in Mogg's seat, there is every chance.
    That would make no sense - Labour last polled 18,757 to the LDs 4,461.
    Yes but therein lies the issue. Look at the EU election results and the locals.
    The 2017 results are so far from recent polls that they are the worst place to start.
    The EU elections have always been taken frivolously and it is well known that the LibDems flatter to deceive at Local Elections. Both have turnouts well under 40% . Moreover, this is a seat where Labour has consistently - even in 2010 - been the main challenger.
    With respect you do know there has been an earthquake in politics ripping up past history

    Sadly for labour they are caught in a pincer movement between the Conservatives and Lib Dems who are now the respected party for those who want to remain
    Why is Labour ahead with Survation, Comres, and Opinium ? On the basis of those findings , a voter would have to be pretty psephologically illiterate to suggest that Labour voters should tactically support the LDs there - though such advice would delight JRM. We had many polls at the 2010 GE putiing the LDs in first place nationally with over 30% vote shares , and we know how that turned out a few days later - ie the LDs actually LOST seats! LD support is very soft - 'easy come - easy go'.
    And easy come again (if that doesn't sound too arrogant). Yes it is soft so there are seats that Labour can't win, but when the LDs are in the doldrums Lab appear in 2nd place with the LDs far behind. Lab don't win them, but when LDs recover they can. Hence the tactical vote suggestion.
    But not in seats such as Somerset NE!
    Well obviously it is a big ask, but why not? Note I am not predicting it, but pointing out the logic of the argument. Labour can't get the tactical votes so can only win it if they are on course for a landslide anyway. LDs can get tactical votes from both Lab and Con so if they work it and are on a high can win it. And the current environment is favourable to the LDs and not Lab.

    Do I think they will win it - No, but the tactical vote logic is in favour of LDs
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    If BJ calls an election on 5th September, when is the earliest it can be held ? Corbyn has to agree as he has dug himself in a hole on this.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,767
    To be fair, Boris is giving Corbyn a damn good thrashing.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231

    Scott_P said:
    Funny how for years, awkward euroskeptic Tories were told to shut up for the good of the party by the likes of Soames and Soubry, but clearly that doesn't apply to them.
    They didn't though, did they?
    They didn't openly speak of bringing down Tory governments and enter coalition with opposition parties.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    If BJ calls an election on 5th September, when is the earliest it can be held ? Corbyn has to agree as he has dug himself in a hole on this.

    If you mean Johnson wins a vote for a GE with 2/3 of chamber then 5 weeks currently. But no reason why that can't be changed to less.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    Jo Swinson asked a good clear question and was listened to with respect.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    kjh said:

    justin124 said:

    kjh said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    alex. said:
    IF Labour voters get behind the LibDems in Mogg's seat, there is every chance.
    That would make no sense - Labour last polled 18,757 to the LDs 4,461.
    Yes but therein lies the issue. Look at the EU election results and the locals.
    The 2017 results are so far from recent polls that they are the worst place to start.
    . Both have turnouts well under 40% . Moreover, this is a seat where Labour has consistently - even in 2010 - been the main challenger.
    With respect you do know there has been an earthquake in politics ripping up past history

    Sadly for labour they are caught in a pincer movement between the Conservatives and Lib Dems who are now the respected party for those who want to remain
    Why is Labour ahead with Survation, Comres, and Opinium ? On the basis of those findings , a voter would have to be pretty psephologically illiterate to suggest that Labour voters should tactically support the LDs there - though such advice would delight JRM. We had many polls at the 2010 GE putiing the LDs in first place nationally with over 30% vote shares , and we know how that turned out a few days later - ie the LDs actually LOST seats! LD support is very soft - 'easy come - easy go'.
    And easy come again (if that doesn't sound too arrogant). Yes it is soft so there are seats that Labour can't win, but when the LDs are in the doldrums Lab appear in 2nd place with the LDs far behind. Lab don't win them, but when LDs recover they can. Hence the tactical vote suggestion.
    But not in seats such as Somerset NE!
    Well obviously it is a big ask, but why not? Note I am not predicting it, but pointing out the logic of the argument. Labour can't get the tactical votes so can only win it if they are on course for a landslide anyway. LDs can get tactical votes from both Lab and Con so if they work it and are on a high can win it. And the current environment is favourable to the LDs and not Lab.

    Do I think they will win it - No, but the tactical vote logic is in favour of LDs
    There are lots of disaffected Tory Remainers in the South. Even the leadership election indicated about a third of the membership are Remainers. This time, LD could get transfers from both Labour and Tories.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited July 2019
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:



    Most people won't understand the minutiae of why it would or wouldn't work they will just see that it is Swinson that is leading the charge against BoJo while Jezza seems frit.

    As @HYUFD has noted, she is looking more like leader of the opposition than Corbyn.

    She looked immature on Newsnight when the interviewer asked her why she was offering to work with Corbyn on a VONC when she'd just said she wouldn't work with him in Government. Easy enough question to handle, but she nervously gabbled instead of replying calmly. It's early days and she'll learn, if there's time, but is there?
    Didn't see it. And I'm not convinced you are the impartial observer I would want an account from, Nick.
    It is on iplayer. Since, as NP says, and is self-evident, Swinson will get better with practice, I'm not sure how much it matters in the long term. In the short term, there is the Brecon & Radnor by-election but not much else.

    A bigger problem for Swinson, as it was for Cable and Farron, is that the LibDems are no longer our third party (the SNP has more seats and DUP more influence) so they are no longer needed for balance on news and current affairs programmes; nor are they guaranteed a question at PMQs.
    That was then. This is now. We are in different times. No reason the LibDems can't put on a shedload of votes. The polls suggest it is not an impossible ask.
    No, then is now; what you anticipate comes after the next election, if at all. The LibDems need to outscore the SNP. The third party gets two questions at PMQs: it used to be the LibDems but right now and until a general election, it is the SNP.

    After B&R, if that is a LibDem gain, perhaps Swinson could propose to Bercow that the 4th party has one question guaranteed. If he agrees (does JRM as Leader of the House have a say? I don't know) then Swinson should practise asking questions in a bear pit *without notes* as only the two main parties have lecterns, and the SNP's Ian Blackford always seems not quite sure what to do with his papers.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    If BJ calls an election on 5th September, when is the earliest it can be held ? Corbyn has to agree as he has dug himself in a hole on this.

    If you mean Johnson wins a vote for a GE with 2/3 of chamber then 5 weeks currently. But no reason why that can't be changed to less.
    But about a week needed for votes etc. So, second half of October, then.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Quite noteworthy that the government benches are far from full for the PM's first statement.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    kjh said:

    justin124 said:

    kjh said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    alex. said:
    IF Labour voters get behind the LibDems in Mogg's seat, there is every chance.
    That would make no sense - Labour last polled 18,757 to the LDs 4,461.
    Yes but therein lies the issue. Look at the EU election results and the locals.
    The 2017 results are so far from recent polls that they are the worst place to start.
    The EU elections have always been taken frivolously and it is well known that the LibDems flatter to deceive at Local Elections. Both have turnouts well under 40% . Moreover, this is a seat where Labour has consistently - even in 2010 - been the main challenger.
    With respect you do know there has been an earthquake in politics ripping up past history

    Sadly for labour they are caught in a pincer movement between the Conservatives and Lib Dems who are now the respected party for those who want to remain
    Why is Labour ahead with Survation, Comres, and Opinium ? On the basis of those findings , a voter would have to be pretty psephologically illiterate to suggest that Labour voters should tactically support the LDs there - though such advice would delight JRM. We had many polls at the 2010 GE putiing the LDs in first place nationally with over 30% vote shares , and we know how that turned out a few days later - ie the LDs actually LOST seats! LD support is very soft - 'easy come - easy go'.
    And easy come again (if that doesn't sound too arrogant). Yes it is soft so there are seats that Labour can't win, but when the LDs are in the doldrums Lab appear in 2nd place with the LDs far behind. Lab don't win them, but when LDs recover they can. Hence the tactical vote suggestion.
    But not in seats such as Somerset NE!
    Well obviously it is a big ask, but why not? Note I am not predicting it, but pointing out the logic of the argument. Labour can't get the tactical votes so can only win it if they are on course for a landslide anyway. LDs can get tactical votes from both Lab and Con so if they work it and are on a high can win it. And the current environment is favourable to the LDs and not Lab.

    Do I think they will win it - No, but the tactical vote logic is in favour of LDs
    No - Labour would have won that seat in 1997 and 2001.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,796
    Hello from a very melty Whitehall. After a blissful 5 days in Scotland I travelled by sleeper to that London for tonight's Public Service Broadcasting prom. Am sat in Spoons reading in bemused rage that simultaneously the cocks running the Labour Party are both demanding a general election complete with rally and denouncing a motion to force a general election.

    Tell you what. Lets all quit our respective parties and form the PM party.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    JackW said:

    Quite noteworthy that the government benches are far from full for the PM's first statement.

    Lots of mps off on holiday with their families. Parliament closes today until September
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794
    Plus I forget who it was who insisted that the Queen cannot remove a PM if that PM insists on staying on without confidence. She can, she should, and I hope that she would. Google "the Dismissal" for a real-life example in Australia in the 70s.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    To be fair, Boris is giving Corbyn a damn good thrashing.

    He is but Corbyn will do a lot better once Labour's team analyse Boris's weak points, and even better after they extract a 30-seconds video for social media. As noted earlier in this thread, almost no-one watches live telly.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    viewcode said:

    @rcs1000

    I note your discussion about Monte Carlo. I might be wrong (and I'm sure you'll pull me up if I am) but given we know (or have estimates for) the distribution and variation of the polls and of the vote, it might be quicker to just work out the probabilities mathematically instead of setting up a simulation and deriving the probabilities of the simulation

    For the avoidance of doubt: I am not volunteering... :)

    I used to (mis) use 'Crystal Ball'. Is that still the go-to package for MC?
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    JackW said:

    Quite noteworthy that the government benches are far from full for the PM's first statement.

    The Guakeward squad are at cricket at Lords watching England play the EU.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794
    HYUFD said:
    It's a lolly! Of course it's a lolly! It's on a stick! Honestly, there are some weird people in the world... :)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sandpit said:

    Fenster said:

    Is this the youngest ever cabinet?

    Undoubtedly, many of them were born in the 1970s. ;)
    Who's the youngest member?
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    AndyJS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Fenster said:

    Is this the youngest ever cabinet?

    Undoubtedly, many of them were born in the 1970s. ;)
    Who's the youngest member?
    No idea, but they're definitely all "members".
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,178
    Have to hand it to Boris. This is barnstorming stuff. Whatever happens in the coming months, it is certainly going to be entertaining.

    What I saw of JRM in business Qs was entertaing stuff too.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    murali_s said:

    kle4 said:

    murali_s said:

    Three of the four Great Offices of State have just been filled by backbenchers.

    This has to be a first?

    It happens every time the opposition wins a general election.

    Two of the top offices of state filled by BAMEs.
    I would say they are not really representative of the BAME population of the UK.
    Why does that matter?
    Priti Patel for instance is a "people repellent" - colour of skin doesn't matter - she disgusts almost everyone!

    Does anyone (even on this right-wing blog) have any time for her?

    She's a dim-witted piece of right-wing trash!
    I'm not a fan of Patel, but that's a rather different thing to your claim in your OP. BAME covers many groupings of people, and Patel's views will be as 'representative' of many of the people within those groups as yours.

    I'm reminded of those lefties who said that Thatcher wasn't really a woman because they didn't agree with her views.
    It’s funny to watch those engaged in identity politics dismiss people as the “wrong kind of woman” or “wrong kind of BAME”. The woke are slowly consuming themselves.
    Do you have any examples of this? The only times I remember seeing this recently is with left wing Jews being told that we're not really Jews
    It started with Thatcher, and there’s been some quite unpleasant things said to the likes of Sajid Javid and Priti Patel in recent years.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6190629/sajid-javid-jeremy-corbyn-denounce-racist-trolls/
    It's been around longer than Thatcher. Google "no true Scotsman...".
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Whilst Corbyn is not the man to do it , it would be good to see some Labour MPs seeking to undermine Johnson by highlighting his low standards re- personal morality etc? 'Can the PM inform the House how many Bastards he has fathered to date? ' ' How much maintenance is he now paying to ex-partners etc'.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006

    Have to hand it to Boris. This is barnstorming stuff. Whatever happens in the coming months, it is certainly going to be entertaining.

    What I saw of JRM in business Qs was entertaing stuff too.

    JRM looking very good. Surprisingly.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    It seems the momentum kids have noticed that Jezza is not a leader who leads.

    They'll be reminiscing wistfully about Blair before too long.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    To be fair, Boris is giving Corbyn a damn good thrashing.

    Corbyn will do a lot better once Labour's team analyse Boris's weak points
    If they haven't done already, what have they been doing? Its not like Johnson's appointment is a surprise.

    Also:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1154351320415031296?s=20
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,462
    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:
    It's a lolly! Of course it's a lolly! It's on a stick! Honestly, there are some weird people in the world... :)
    Arguing about what is a lolly makes a change from Brexit I suppose...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    edited July 2019

    Have to hand it to Boris. This is barnstorming stuff. Whatever happens in the coming months, it is certainly going to be entertaining.

    What I saw of JRM in business Qs was entertaing stuff too.

    Both JRM and Boris have changed politics today and must have made labour mps accept that Corbyn is a liability to their party
  • glwglw Posts: 9,871
    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:
    It's a lolly! Of course it's a lolly! It's on a stick! Honestly, there are some weird people in the world... :)
    I've just eaten one, it's a lolly.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,462
    Jesus, its bloody hot today....my PCs aren't happy at been asked to do a load of work in these conditions.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    Scott_P said:
    And, in fairness, in a way the members would prefer .
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    AndyJS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Fenster said:

    Is this the youngest ever cabinet?

    Undoubtedly, many of them were born in the 1970s. ;)
    Who's the youngest member?
    Robert Jenrick is 37. Rishi Sunak is 39. Both younger than me (41).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    At the risk of sounding like I’m turning into @HYUFD, Boris Johnson is absolutely killing this in the Commons.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,462
    edited July 2019
    As predicted...wrong type of BAME's for the Guardian....

    Don’t be fooled by Johnson’s ‘diverse’ cabinet. Tory racism hasn’t changed

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/25/johnson-diverse-cabinet-tory-racism-ethnic-minority-ministers
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:
    It's a lolly! Of course it's a lolly! It's on a stick! Honestly, there are some weird people in the world... :)
    It's an ice cream! A 'lolly' is some frozen fruit concoction on a stick
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    justin124 said:

    Whilst Corbyn is not the man to do it , it would be good to see some Labour MPs seeking to undermine Johnson by highlighting his low standards re- personal morality etc? 'Can the PM inform the House how many Bastards he has fathered to date? ' ' How much maintenance is he now paying to ex-partners etc'.

    Already priced in
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,451
    For once, I think Ash's analysis is actually a fair point.

    Corbyn does come across as absent at the helm.

    Sure, the vision I would like for him, and Ash's, are different. But Corbyn is not getting across either of them.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    viewcode said:

    Plus I forget who it was who insisted that the Queen cannot remove a PM if that PM insists on staying on without confidence. She can, she should, and I hope that she would. Google "the Dismissal" for a real-life example in Australia in the 70s.

    The Queen isn't going to dismiss a government.
This discussion has been closed.