The sad thing is that it May had done half of this 3 years ago we would have left in March with a deal
You think her problem was not being divisive enough?
Sort of. Her problem was not being firm enough. Every time someone pushed her she went in their direction rather than standing firm, especially after the election defeat.
IF Labour voters get behind the LibDems in Mogg's seat, there is every chance.
That would make no sense - Labour last polled 18,757 to the LDs 4,461.
Yes but therein lies the issue. Look at the EU election results and the locals. The 2017 results are so far from recent polls that they are the worst place to start.
The EU elections have always been taken frivolously and it is well known that the LibDems flatter to deceive at Local Elections. Both have turnouts well under 40% . Moreover, this is a seat where Labour has consistently - even in 2010 - been the main challenger.
With respect you do know there has been an earthquake in politics ripping up past history
Sadly for labour they are caught in a pincer movement between the Conservatives and Lib Dems who are now the respected party for those who want to remain
Why is Labour ahead with Survation, Comres, and Opinium ? On the basis of those findings , a voter would have to be pretty psephologically illiterate to suggest that Labour voters should tactically support the LDs there - though such advice would delight JRM. We had many polls at the 2010 GE putiing the LDs in first place nationally with over 30% vote shares , and we know how that turned out a few days later - ie the LDs actually LOST seats! LD support is very soft - 'easy come - easy go'.
ridiculous from Corbyn asking about capital punishment
Labour mps listening to this must despair
Why ? It is a perfectly reasonable question. Patel has said on many occasions on record that she wants to bring back capital punishment. She is now the Home Secretary.
IF Labour voters get behind the LibDems in Mogg's seat, there is every chance.
That would make no sense - Labour last polled 18,757 to the LDs 4,461.
Yes but therein lies the issue. Look at the EU election results and the locals. The 2017 results are so far from recent polls that they are the worst place to start.
The EU elections have always been taken frivolously and it is well known that the LibDems flatter to deceive at Local Elections. Both have turnouts well under 40% . Moreover, this is a seat where Labour has consistently - even in 2010 - been the main challenger.
With respect you do know there has been an earthquake in politics ripping up past history
Sadly for labour they are caught in a pincer movement between the Conservatives and Lib Dems who are now the respected party for those who want to remain
Why is Labour ahead with Survation, Comres, and Opinium ? On the basis of those findings , a voter would have to be pretty psephologically illiterate to suggest that Labour voters should tactically support the LDs there - though such advice would delight JRM. We had many polls at the 2010 GE putiing the LDs in first place nationally with over 30% vote shares , and we know how that turned out a few days later - ie the LDs actually LOST seats! LD support is very soft - 'easy come - easy go'.
And easy come again (if that doesn't sound too arrogant). Yes it is soft so there are seats that Labour can't win, but when the LDs are in the doldrums Lab appear in 2nd place with the LDs far behind. Lab don't win them, but when LDs recover they can. Hence the tactical vote suggestion.
ridiculous from Corbyn asking about capital punishment
Labour mps listening to this must despair
Why ? It is a perfectly reasonable question. Patel has said on many occasions on record that she wants to bring back capital punishment. She is now the Home Secretary.
Most people won't understand the minutiae of why it would or wouldn't work they will just see that it is Swinson that is leading the charge against BoJo while Jezza seems frit.
As @HYUFD has noted, she is looking more like leader of the opposition than Corbyn.
She looked immature on Newsnight when the interviewer asked her why she was offering to work with Corbyn on a VONC when she'd just said she wouldn't work with him in Government. Easy enough question to handle, but she nervously gabbled instead of replying calmly. It's early days and she'll learn, if there's time, but is there?
Didn't see it. And I'm not convinced you are the impartial observer I would want an account from, Nick.
It is on iplayer. Since, as NP says, and is self-evident, Swinson will get better with practice, I'm not sure how much it matters in the long term. In the short term, there is the Brecon & Radnor by-election but not much else.
A bigger problem for Swinson, as it was for Cable and Farron, is that the LibDems are no longer our third party (the SNP has more seats and DUP more influence) so they are no longer needed for balance on news and current affairs programmes; nor are they guaranteed a question at PMQs.
That was then. This is now. We are in different times. No reason the LibDems can't put on a shedload of votes. The polls suggest it is not an impossible ask.
They're actually fairly close to the point where a small increase in support would produce a huge increase in seats at a GE. The centre ground is pretty empty too, so the opportunity is there for them.
We have been there before though and it's all fizzled out, so nobody should be jumping to conclusions. Nevertheless I wouldn't be sure where to put the limit on their upper limit.
IF Labour voters get behind the LibDems in Mogg's seat, there is every chance.
That would make no sense - Labour last polled 18,757 to the LDs 4,461.
Yes but therein lies the issue. Look at the EU election results and the locals. The 2017 results are so far from recent polls that they are the worst place to start.
The EU elections have always been taken frivolously and it is well known that the LibDems flatter to deceive at Local Elections. Both have turnouts well under 40% . Moreover, this is a seat where Labour has consistently - even in 2010 - been the main challenger.
With respect you do know there has been an earthquake in politics ripping up past history
Sadly for labour they are caught in a pincer movement between the Conservatives and Lib Dems who are now the respected party for those who want to remain
Why is Labour ahead with Survation, Comres, and Opinium ? On the basis of those findings , a voter would have to be pretty psephologically illiterate to suggest that Labour voters should tactically support the LDs there - though such advice would delight JRM. We had many polls at the 2010 GE putiing the LDs in first place nationally with over 30% vote shares , and we know how that turned out a few days later - ie the LDs actually LOST seats! LD support is very soft - 'easy come - easy go'.
And easy come again (if that doesn't sound too arrogant). Yes it is soft so there are seats that Labour can't win, but when the LDs are in the doldrums Lab appear in 2nd place with the LDs far behind. Lab don't win them, but when LDs recover they can. Hence the tactical vote suggestion.
Swinson is absolutely right to call for a VONC and Corbyn is being predictably useless.
The idea that a failed VONC “bolsters Boris” is being too clever by half. This is not test cricket, it is 20/20. There are just 98 days until October 31.
A VONC has every justification since Boris and his platform have no actual mandate, his Cabinet is full of more crooks than Belmarsh prison, and the Home Sec wants to bring back hanging.
Labour have a point. Hard to see any Tories voting against Boris on day 1. If any of them were thinking of doing so, Corbyn would have this information.
Quite. There is not just no point is tabling a VONC that will fail. Itr would be seriously counter-productive. People like Swinson who suggest it tend to have another agenda.
“Will fail” is a strange and defeatist assumption given a notional government majority of perhaps 2. Stranger still from a party calling for a general election, for which there is extremely limited time before the end of October.
Almost as though Corbyn wants Brexit to happen and someone else to shoulder the blame.
Swinson is absolutely right to call for a VONC and Corbyn is being predictably useless.
The idea that a failed VONC “bolsters Boris” is being too clever by half. This is not test cricket, it is 20/20. There are just 98 days until October 31.
A VONC has every justification since Boris and his platform have no actual mandate, his Cabinet is full of more crooks than Belmarsh prison, and the Home Sec wants to bring back hanging.
Labour have a point. Hard to see any Tories voting against Boris on day 1. If any of them were thinking of doing so, Corbyn would have this information.
Quite. There is not just no point is tabling a VONC that will fail. Itr would be seriously counter-productive. People like Swinson who suggest it tend to have another agenda.
“Will fail” is a strange and defeatist assumption given a notional government majority of perhaps 2. Stranger still from a party calling for a general election, for which there is extremely limited time before the end of October.
Almost as though Corbyn wants Brexit to happen and someone else to shoulder the blame.
I thought Thatcher and Callaghan fought 6-7 VONC's before the final one was won by the majority of 1.
IF Labour voters get behind the LibDems in Mogg's seat, there is every chance.
That would make no sense - Labour last polled 18,757 to the LDs 4,461.
Yes but therein lies the issue. Look at the EU election results and the locals. The 2017 results are so far from recent polls that they are the worst place to start.
The EU elections have always been taken frivolously and it is well known that the LibDems flatter to deceive at Local Elections. Both have turnouts well under 40% . Moreover, this is a seat where Labour has consistently - even in 2010 - been the main challenger.
With respect you do know there has been an earthquake in politics ripping up past history
Sadly for labour they are caught in a pincer movement between the Conservatives and Lib Dems who are now the respected party for those who want to remain
Why is Labour ahead with Survation, Comres, and Opinium ? On the basis of those findings , a voter would have to be pretty psephologically illiterate to suggest that Labour voters should tactically support the LDs there - though such advice would delight JRM. We had many polls at the 2010 GE putiing the LDs in first place nationally with over 30% vote shares , and we know how that turned out a few days later - ie the LDs actually LOST seats! LD support is very soft - 'easy come - easy go'.
Labour are falling like a stone
Not according to Survation, Comres and Opinium.
You cannot read much into them at the present and that will probably be the case for a while yet. Common sense is a as good a guide as any right now.
Mine suggests that it's a four-horse race with huge potential for change at any moment.
“Will fail” is a strange and defeatist assumption given a notional government majority of perhaps 2.
Also if there are some wavering Tories out there the not-quite-a-proper-no-confidence motion is potentially a more accessible gateway drug for a proper no-confidence motion.
Funny how for years, awkward euroskeptic Tories were told to shut up for the good of the party by the likes of Soames and Soubry, but clearly that doesn't apply to them.
Funny how for years, awkward euroskeptic Tories were told to shut up for the good of the party by the likes of Soames and Soubry, but clearly that doesn't apply to them.
@basicbridge and others who are banging on about the currency. I too have noticed that the pound did not fall on the accession. I would not use words like "strong" since the movements were too small to reserve the ten. However, they were not downwards.
I hold little brief for either of them, but I foresee Jezza's going to struggle against Boris.
May's polite, if slightly frustrated and dismissive, responses to him meant he could show some passion and occasionally come out on top - he was the one with the greater box office draw.
BoJo will treat him like something on his shoe and wipe him off in a spirit of absolutely zero f*cks given.
Most people won't understand the minutiae of why it would or wouldn't work they will just see that it is Swinson that is leading the charge against BoJo while Jezza seems frit.
As @HYUFD has noted, she is looking more like leader of the opposition than Corbyn.
She looked immature on Newsnight when the interviewer asked her why she was offering to work with Corbyn on a VONC when she'd just said she wouldn't work with him in Government. Easy enough question to handle, but she nervously gabbled instead of replying calmly. It's early days and she'll learn, if there's time, but is there?
Didn't see it. And I'm not convinced you are the impartial observer I would want an account from, Nick.
It is on iplayer. Since, as NP says, and is self-evident, Swinson will get better with practice, I'm not sure how much it matters in the long term. In the short term, there is the Brecon & Radnor by-election but not much else.
A bigger problem for Swinson, as it was for Cable and Farron, is that the LibDems are no longer our third party (the SNP has more seats and DUP more influence) so they are no longer needed for balance on news and current affairs programmes; nor are they guaranteed a question at PMQs.
Although this didn’t stop Farage. She needs to think like an insurgent.
Labour accusing somebody else of being childish and irresponsible? Would be funny under other circumstances.
If Kinnock had the gumption to table a VoNC in 1990 when facing a government majority over 90, surely Corbyn could do so now facing a Govt majority of three?
Or is he afraid some of his own backbenchers would abstain?
But when the LDs went public with it instead of approaching Labour behind the scenes, they guaranteed that Corbyn couldn't go along with it. Which they knew. It wasn't a move against Boris, it was designed to make Corbyn look bad.
I note your discussion about Monte Carlo. I might be wrong (and I'm sure you'll pull me up if I am) but given we know (or have estimates for) the distribution and variation of the polls and of the vote, it might be quicker to just work out the probabilities mathematically instead of setting up a simulation and deriving the probabilities of the simulation
For the avoidance of doubt: I am not volunteering...
IF Labour voters get behind the LibDems in Mogg's seat, there is every chance.
That would make no sense - Labour last polled 18,757 to the LDs 4,461.
Yes but therein lies the issue. Look at the EU election results and the locals. The 2017 results are so far from recent polls that they are the worst place to start.
The EU elections have always been taken frivolously and it is well known that the LibDems flatter to deceive at Local Elections. Both have turnouts well under 40% . Moreover, this is a seat where Labour has consistently - even in 2010 - been the main challenger.
With respect you do know there has been an earthquake in politics ripping up past history
Sadly for labour they are caught in a pincer movement between the Conservatives and Lib Dems who are now the respected party for those who want to remain
Why is Labour ahead with Survation, Comres, and Opinium ? On the basis of those findings , a voter would have to be pretty psephologically illiterate to suggest that Labour voters should tactically support the LDs there - though such advice would delight JRM. We had many polls at the 2010 GE putiing the LDs in first place nationally with over 30% vote shares , and we know how that turned out a few days later - ie the LDs actually LOST seats! LD support is very soft - 'easy come - easy go'.
And easy come again (if that doesn't sound too arrogant). Yes it is soft so there are seats that Labour can't win, but when the LDs are in the doldrums Lab appear in 2nd place with the LDs far behind. Lab don't win them, but when LDs recover they can. Hence the tactical vote suggestion.
But not in seats such as Somerset NE!
Well obviously it is a big ask, but why not? Note I am not predicting it, but pointing out the logic of the argument. Labour can't get the tactical votes so can only win it if they are on course for a landslide anyway. LDs can get tactical votes from both Lab and Con so if they work it and are on a high can win it. And the current environment is favourable to the LDs and not Lab.
Do I think they will win it - No, but the tactical vote logic is in favour of LDs
Funny how for years, awkward euroskeptic Tories were told to shut up for the good of the party by the likes of Soames and Soubry, but clearly that doesn't apply to them.
They didn't though, did they?
They didn't openly speak of bringing down Tory governments and enter coalition with opposition parties.
IF Labour voters get behind the LibDems in Mogg's seat, there is every chance.
That would make no sense - Labour last polled 18,757 to the LDs 4,461.
Yes but therein lies the issue. Look at the EU election results and the locals. The 2017 results are so far from recent polls that they are the worst place to start.
. Both have turnouts well under 40% . Moreover, this is a seat where Labour has consistently - even in 2010 - been the main challenger.
With respect you do know there has been an earthquake in politics ripping up past history
Sadly for labour they are caught in a pincer movement between the Conservatives and Lib Dems who are now the respected party for those who want to remain
Why is Labour ahead with Survation, Comres, and Opinium ? On the basis of those findings , a voter would have to be pretty psephologically illiterate to suggest that Labour voters should tactically support the LDs there - though such advice would delight JRM. We had many polls at the 2010 GE putiing the LDs in first place nationally with over 30% vote shares , and we know how that turned out a few days later - ie the LDs actually LOST seats! LD support is very soft - 'easy come - easy go'.
And easy come again (if that doesn't sound too arrogant). Yes it is soft so there are seats that Labour can't win, but when the LDs are in the doldrums Lab appear in 2nd place with the LDs far behind. Lab don't win them, but when LDs recover they can. Hence the tactical vote suggestion.
But not in seats such as Somerset NE!
Well obviously it is a big ask, but why not? Note I am not predicting it, but pointing out the logic of the argument. Labour can't get the tactical votes so can only win it if they are on course for a landslide anyway. LDs can get tactical votes from both Lab and Con so if they work it and are on a high can win it. And the current environment is favourable to the LDs and not Lab.
Do I think they will win it - No, but the tactical vote logic is in favour of LDs
There are lots of disaffected Tory Remainers in the South. Even the leadership election indicated about a third of the membership are Remainers. This time, LD could get transfers from both Labour and Tories.
Most people won't understand the minutiae of why it would or wouldn't work they will just see that it is Swinson that is leading the charge against BoJo while Jezza seems frit.
As @HYUFD has noted, she is looking more like leader of the opposition than Corbyn.
She looked immature on Newsnight when the interviewer asked her why she was offering to work with Corbyn on a VONC when she'd just said she wouldn't work with him in Government. Easy enough question to handle, but she nervously gabbled instead of replying calmly. It's early days and she'll learn, if there's time, but is there?
Didn't see it. And I'm not convinced you are the impartial observer I would want an account from, Nick.
It is on iplayer. Since, as NP says, and is self-evident, Swinson will get better with practice, I'm not sure how much it matters in the long term. In the short term, there is the Brecon & Radnor by-election but not much else.
A bigger problem for Swinson, as it was for Cable and Farron, is that the LibDems are no longer our third party (the SNP has more seats and DUP more influence) so they are no longer needed for balance on news and current affairs programmes; nor are they guaranteed a question at PMQs.
That was then. This is now. We are in different times. No reason the LibDems can't put on a shedload of votes. The polls suggest it is not an impossible ask.
No, then is now; what you anticipate comes after the next election, if at all. The LibDems need to outscore the SNP. The third party gets two questions at PMQs: it used to be the LibDems but right now and until a general election, it is the SNP.
After B&R, if that is a LibDem gain, perhaps Swinson could propose to Bercow that the 4th party has one question guaranteed. If he agrees (does JRM as Leader of the House have a say? I don't know) then Swinson should practise asking questions in a bear pit *without notes* as only the two main parties have lecterns, and the SNP's Ian Blackford always seems not quite sure what to do with his papers.
IF Labour voters get behind the LibDems in Mogg's seat, there is every chance.
That would make no sense - Labour last polled 18,757 to the LDs 4,461.
Yes but therein lies the issue. Look at the EU election results and the locals. The 2017 results are so far from recent polls that they are the worst place to start.
The EU elections have always been taken frivolously and it is well known that the LibDems flatter to deceive at Local Elections. Both have turnouts well under 40% . Moreover, this is a seat where Labour has consistently - even in 2010 - been the main challenger.
With respect you do know there has been an earthquake in politics ripping up past history
Sadly for labour they are caught in a pincer movement between the Conservatives and Lib Dems who are now the respected party for those who want to remain
Why is Labour ahead with Survation, Comres, and Opinium ? On the basis of those findings , a voter would have to be pretty psephologically illiterate to suggest that Labour voters should tactically support the LDs there - though such advice would delight JRM. We had many polls at the 2010 GE putiing the LDs in first place nationally with over 30% vote shares , and we know how that turned out a few days later - ie the LDs actually LOST seats! LD support is very soft - 'easy come - easy go'.
And easy come again (if that doesn't sound too arrogant). Yes it is soft so there are seats that Labour can't win, but when the LDs are in the doldrums Lab appear in 2nd place with the LDs far behind. Lab don't win them, but when LDs recover they can. Hence the tactical vote suggestion.
But not in seats such as Somerset NE!
Well obviously it is a big ask, but why not? Note I am not predicting it, but pointing out the logic of the argument. Labour can't get the tactical votes so can only win it if they are on course for a landslide anyway. LDs can get tactical votes from both Lab and Con so if they work it and are on a high can win it. And the current environment is favourable to the LDs and not Lab.
Do I think they will win it - No, but the tactical vote logic is in favour of LDs
No - Labour would have won that seat in 1997 and 2001.
Hello from a very melty Whitehall. After a blissful 5 days in Scotland I travelled by sleeper to that London for tonight's Public Service Broadcasting prom. Am sat in Spoons reading in bemused rage that simultaneously the cocks running the Labour Party are both demanding a general election complete with rally and denouncing a motion to force a general election.
Tell you what. Lets all quit our respective parties and form the PM party.
Plus I forget who it was who insisted that the Queen cannot remove a PM if that PM insists on staying on without confidence. She can, she should, and I hope that she would. Google "the Dismissal" for a real-life example in Australia in the 70s.
To be fair, Boris is giving Corbyn a damn good thrashing.
He is but Corbyn will do a lot better once Labour's team analyse Boris's weak points, and even better after they extract a 30-seconds video for social media. As noted earlier in this thread, almost no-one watches live telly.
I note your discussion about Monte Carlo. I might be wrong (and I'm sure you'll pull me up if I am) but given we know (or have estimates for) the distribution and variation of the polls and of the vote, it might be quicker to just work out the probabilities mathematically instead of setting up a simulation and deriving the probabilities of the simulation
For the avoidance of doubt: I am not volunteering...
I used to (mis) use 'Crystal Ball'. Is that still the go-to package for MC?
Three of the four Great Offices of State have just been filled by backbenchers.
This has to be a first?
It happens every time the opposition wins a general election.
Two of the top offices of state filled by BAMEs.
I would say they are not really representative of the BAME population of the UK.
Why does that matter?
Priti Patel for instance is a "people repellent" - colour of skin doesn't matter - she disgusts almost everyone!
Does anyone (even on this right-wing blog) have any time for her?
She's a dim-witted piece of right-wing trash!
I'm not a fan of Patel, but that's a rather different thing to your claim in your OP. BAME covers many groupings of people, and Patel's views will be as 'representative' of many of the people within those groups as yours.
I'm reminded of those lefties who said that Thatcher wasn't really a woman because they didn't agree with her views.
It’s funny to watch those engaged in identity politics dismiss people as the “wrong kind of woman” or “wrong kind of BAME”. The woke are slowly consuming themselves.
Do you have any examples of this? The only times I remember seeing this recently is with left wing Jews being told that we're not really Jews
It started with Thatcher, and there’s been some quite unpleasant things said to the likes of Sajid Javid and Priti Patel in recent years.
Whilst Corbyn is not the man to do it , it would be good to see some Labour MPs seeking to undermine Johnson by highlighting his low standards re- personal morality etc? 'Can the PM inform the House how many Bastards he has fathered to date? ' ' How much maintenance is he now paying to ex-partners etc'.
Whilst Corbyn is not the man to do it , it would be good to see some Labour MPs seeking to undermine Johnson by highlighting his low standards re- personal morality etc? 'Can the PM inform the House how many Bastards he has fathered to date? ' ' How much maintenance is he now paying to ex-partners etc'.
Plus I forget who it was who insisted that the Queen cannot remove a PM if that PM insists on staying on without confidence. She can, she should, and I hope that she would. Google "the Dismissal" for a real-life example in Australia in the 70s.
Comments
We have been there before though and it's all fizzled out, so nobody should be jumping to conclusions. Nevertheless I wouldn't be sure where to put the limit on their upper limit.
"Britain Trump to sell the NHS to shady American capitalists".
I like that. That could hurt. I can see it on a bus.
https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1154158878860255232?s=19
Do we reckon there are any remainiac Tories who would hold their seats if they jumped and ran as independent Conservatives?
Stranger still from a party calling for a general election, for which there is extremely limited time before the end of October.
Almost as though Corbyn wants Brexit to happen and someone else to shoulder the blame.
Mine suggests that it's a four-horse race with huge potential for change at any moment.
Perhaps it would be better if we just got on with it now, and have that GE. Brenda will have to just cover her ears.
May's polite, if slightly frustrated and dismissive, responses to him meant he could show some passion and occasionally come out on top - he was the one with the greater box office draw.
BoJo will treat him like something on his shoe and wipe him off in a spirit of absolutely zero f*cks given.
But word of warning. He's a notorious cad. So don't give it up too easily.
Can't think of another.
She needs to think like an insurgent.
I note your discussion about Monte Carlo. I might be wrong (and I'm sure you'll pull me up if I am) but given we know (or have estimates for) the distribution and variation of the polls and of the vote, it might be quicker to just work out the probabilities mathematically instead of setting up a simulation and deriving the probabilities of the simulation
For the avoidance of doubt: I am not volunteering...
Do I think they will win it - No, but the tactical vote logic is in favour of LDs
After B&R, if that is a LibDem gain, perhaps Swinson could propose to Bercow that the 4th party has one question guaranteed. If he agrees (does JRM as Leader of the House have a say? I don't know) then Swinson should practise asking questions in a bear pit *without notes* as only the two main parties have lecterns, and the SNP's Ian Blackford always seems not quite sure what to do with his papers.
Tell you what. Lets all quit our respective parties and form the PM party.
https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/1154276631013462016
What I saw of JRM in business Qs was entertaing stuff too.
They'll be reminiscing wistfully about Blair before too long.
Also:
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1154351320415031296?s=20
Don’t be fooled by Johnson’s ‘diverse’ cabinet. Tory racism hasn’t changed
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/25/johnson-diverse-cabinet-tory-racism-ethnic-minority-ministers
Corbyn does come across as absent at the helm.
Sure, the vision I would like for him, and Ash's, are different. But Corbyn is not getting across either of them.