If Johnson refuses to resign post loss of VoNC (and why would he - he will want to go into election as PM) the Queen can’t appoint a successor. And without a successor Parliament can’t pass a VoC in a successor. Technically she can sack him but that would be reversing over 200 years of constitutional practice.
There is a reason why until the FTPA the PM could insist on an election - because constitutionally the Queen must act on PM’s advice. I’m not sure how terms of FTPA actually change that (in the specific circumstances of a VoNC) even if they are designed to?
HMQ doesn't act solely on PM's advice, and if there was a rogue PM who tried to stay in office and ignore a VoNC then she would listen to other members of the Privy Council, Cabinet Secretary etc. Realistically, if the House voted confidence in someone else (Cooper?? to lead a government of national unity) then HMQ would be quite justified in using her reserve powers to sack the PM (technically the first time since 1834, not 200 years). But a PM in that situation would be extraordinarily stupid to stay on, even if there was a point to be made about unelected people interfering with Parliament...
Sterling up again this morning and now consistently stronger on the week.
Currency markets understanding clearly what Hammond, Grieve, Gauke et al extraordinarily seem unable to grasp - that to get a decent deal the UK must prepare, credibly, for no deal.
While it is true the latest Brecon poll has a comfortable LD lead on 43% to 28% for the Tories, with the Brexit Party on 20% the Tories and Brexit Party combined are on 48%.
Given how Boris' Cabinet reshuffle was very much targeted at Brexit Party voters, Brecon could be a lot closer now than that poll suggests
Final Result maybe something like this:
LD 45% CON 30% BXP 15% OTH 10%
With no Green or Plaid why would Others be so high? Oh Labour, only 10%?
Sterling up again this morning and now consistently stronger on the week.
Currency markets understanding clearly what Hammond, Grieve, Gauke et al extraordinarily seem unable to grasp - that to get a decent deal the UK must prepare, credibly, for no deal.
No, its not. Its treading water against the $ fractionally down on the session so far.
The strength of sterling is traditionally viewed against the reserve currency (or a weighted global basket), and £/€ has the additional disadvantage that bad Brexit outcomes hit both currencies. The Euro has been weak this week against some poor EU economic data. With the £ flat against the $ your original "clearly" statement about the markets is nonsense.
Surely the benchmark currency for measuring Brexit is the euro?. There really is nothing to argue about here. Sterling is up on the week..
Best to stay quiet and be thought a fool than to post and remove all doubt....
If Johnson refuses to resign post loss of VoNC (and why would he - he will want to go into election as PM) the Queen can’t appoint a successor. And without a successor Parliament can’t pass a VoC in a successor. Technically she can sack him but that would be reversing over 200 years of constitutional practice.
There is a reason why until the FTPA the PM could insist on an election - because constitutionally the Queen must act on PM’s advice. I’m not sure how terms of FTPA actually change that (in the specific circumstances of a VoNC) even if they are designed to?
HMQ doesn't act solely on PM's advice, and if there was a rogue PM who tried to stay in office and ignore a VoNC then she would listen to other members of the Privy Council, Cabinet Secretary etc. Realistically, if the House voted confidence in someone else (Cooper?? to lead a government of national unity) then HMQ would be quite justified in using her reserve powers to sack the PM (technically the first time since 1834, not 200 years). But a PM in that situation would be extraordinarily stupid to stay on, even if there was a point to be made about unelected people interfering with Parliament...
The trio of advisers, from the Palace, Parliament and civil service, drive the show.
Sterling up again this morning and now consistently stronger on the week.
Currency markets understanding clearly what Hammond, Grieve, Gauke et al extraordinarily seem unable to grasp - that to get a decent deal the UK must prepare, credibly, for no deal.
Sterling up again this morning and now consistently stronger on the week.
Currency markets understanding clearly what Hammond, Grieve, Gauke et al extraordinarily seem unable to grasp - that to get a decent deal the UK must prepare, credibly, for no deal.
The only deal available is Teresa May's deal. The alternative is No Deal or No Brexit. These are the only choices.
Or, you know, they could rethink. Given the "deal" they landed was unacceptable to the UK Parliament, then they can be pig-headed and stick with what has proven to be unworkable. If so, they will deserve the Boris No Deal. And the ensuing recession of their own making.
Sterling up again this morning and now consistently stronger on the week.
Currency markets understanding clearly what Hammond, Grieve, Gauke et al extraordinarily seem unable to grasp - that to get a decent deal the UK must prepare, credibly, for no deal.
The only deal available is Teresa May's deal. The alternative is No Deal or No Brexit. These are the only choices.
They really arent.
And even if they are, in the longer term the UK is probably better off with no deal than one that ties it into all the costs and disadvantages of EU membership, but none of the benefits.
They really are.
And since they are, in the longer term the UK is probably better off staying in the EU than signing up to a deal that ties it into all the costs and disadvantages of EU membership but none of the benefits, or even worse tries to leave without a deal, leading to a period of economic and political chaos before we coming crawling back to Brussels begging to pay them £39bn.
Sterling up again this morning and now consistently stronger on the week.
Currency markets understanding clearly what Hammond, Grieve, Gauke et al extraordinarily seem unable to grasp - that to get a decent deal the UK must prepare, credibly, for no deal.
The only deal available is Teresa May's deal. The alternative is No Deal or No Brexit. These are the only choices.
Or, you know, they could rethink. Given the "deal" they landed was unacceptable to the UK Parliament, then they can be pig-headed and stick with what has proven to be unworkable. If so, they will deserve the Boris No Deal. And the ensuing recession of their own making.
It's our nearly 50% of export trade vs their 6-10% of export trade.
Sterling up again this morning and now consistently stronger on the week.
Currency markets understanding clearly what Hammond, Grieve, Gauke et al extraordinarily seem unable to grasp - that to get a decent deal the UK must prepare, credibly, for no deal.
No, its not. Its treading water against the $ fractionally down on the session so far.
The strength of sterling is traditionally viewed against the reserve currency (or a weighted global basket), and £/€ has the additional disadvantage that bad Brexit outcomes hit both currencies. The Euro has been weak this week against some poor EU economic data. With the £ flat against the $ your original "clearly" statement about the markets is nonsense.
Surely the benchmark currency for measuring Brexit is the euro?. There really is nothing to argue about here. Sterling is up on the week..
Best to stay quiet and be thought a fool than to post and remove all doubt....
Except that you are wrong. A transparent attempt to try and cite the currency markets in support of a conclusion you had reached before even looking.
The Euro is down, but the £ isn't up. Against the weighted basket the £ peaked (modestly) on Friday, and dropped marginally through yesterday. The basket isn't calculated for today, but £ being fractionally down against the $ nothing dramatic is happening this morning as yet. The markets are essentially flat, as they (like us) wonder what this all means.
Is this then to be the hottest July day since records were first kept? Very likely - is it to be the hottest day in the UK since records were first kept? Possibly - I'm left with the thought that during the mediaeval warm period when grapes were widely cultivated in the UK and English wine was widely produced, there must have been days at least this hot if not hotter but I'll cheerfully concede it's probably been a few hundred years since the UK last saw a daytime maximum temperature above 40c.
The YouGov poll and some comments on here have made me wonder if we are moving to a form of political re-alignment with a return to the "good old days" (as some might see it) of Conservatives vs Liberals - Tories vs Whigs - well, there's a lot of nostalgia out there in TBP land.
Take Labour out of the picture and the opposition to the Conservatives is a non-socialist party of the centre or centre-left. Such parties haven't done badly in the past - Blair walked all over the Conservatives on three occasions and I'd argue Harold Wilson's technocratic Labour party did fairly well - he won three elections with a majority and Feb 74 on points.
It's nowhere near as simple as that though (it never is). The key are those who voted LEAVE in 2016 but are totally opposed to No Deal. As long as the possibility of a departure with a WA or similar exists, they can cling on to Johnson but as the cliff edge approaches and especially as the forecasts of what will happen IF we leave without a WA become more widely known, the question will then be if they are prepared to abandon LEAVE and reluctantly accept we have to remain.
As a final thought it now seems the LDs have become the default party of "our precious union" as the No Deal brigade seem relaxed with the notion of the secession of Scotland.
Sterling up again this morning and now consistently stronger on the week.
Currency markets understanding clearly what Hammond, Grieve, Gauke et al extraordinarily seem unable to grasp - that to get a decent deal the UK must prepare, credibly, for no deal.
The only deal available is Teresa May's deal. The alternative is No Deal or No Brexit. These are the only choices.
They really arent.
And even if they are, in the longer term the UK is probably better off with no deal than one that ties it into all the costs and disadvantages of EU membership, but none of the benefits.
They really are.
And since they are, in the longer term the UK is probably better off staying in the EU than signing up to a deal that ties it into all the costs and disadvantages of EU membership but none of the benefits, or even worse tries to leave without a deal, leading to a period of economic and political chaos before we coming crawling back to Brussels begging to pay them £39bn.
Three of the four Great Offices of State have just been filled by backbenchers.
This has to be a first?
It happens every time the opposition wins a general election.
Two of the top offices of state filled by BAMEs.
I would say they are not really representative of the BAME population of the UK.
Why does that matter?
It doesn't and shouldn't. But basicbridge was attaching significance to it. I think it underestimates BAME voters to think that they warm to administrations just because they're a BAME member, in the same way as it's a mistake to think that women voters will gravitate to any woman regardless of views. There are a few people like that (I was once told by a voter that she simply voted for the tallest candidate) but most are really not.
Sterling up again this morning and now consistently stronger on the week.
Currency markets understanding clearly what Hammond, Grieve, Gauke et al extraordinarily seem unable to grasp - that to get a decent deal the UK must prepare, credibly, for no deal.
No, its not. Its treading water against the $ fractionally down on the session so far.
The strength of sterling is traditionally viewed against the reserve currency (or a weighted global basket), and £/€ has the additional disadvantage that bad Brexit outcomes hit both currencies. The Euro has been weak this week against some poor EU economic data. With the £ flat against the $ your original "clearly" statement about the markets is nonsense.
Surely the benchmark currency for measuring Brexit is the euro?. There really is nothing to argue about here. Sterling is up on the week..
Best to stay quiet and be thought a fool than to post and remove all doubt....
Except that you are wrong. A transparent attempt to try and cite the currency markets in support of a conclusion you had reached before even looking.
The Euro is down, but the £ isn't up. Against the weighted basket the £ peaked (modestly) on Friday, and dropped marginally through yesterday. The basket isn't calculated for today, but £ being fractionally down against the $ nothing dramatic is happening this morning as yet. The markets are essentially flat, as they (like us) wonder what this all means.
This is hilarious. Sterling is up against the euro over the last week versus the benchmark EU currency! I look at these things for a living. There is no debate and your argument is sophistry.
Given all the tripe pouring out on a daily basis about Boris, not least on PB, this in itself is instructive in the week that BoJo became PM.
I am no particular out and out fan of BJ's but i know sound tactics when i see them.
Sterling up again this morning and now consistently stronger on the week.
Currency markets understanding clearly what Hammond, Grieve, Gauke et al extraordinarily seem unable to grasp - that to get a decent deal the UK must prepare, credibly, for no deal.
The only deal available is Teresa May's deal. The alternative is No Deal or No Brexit. These are the only choices.
Or, you know, they could rethink. Given the "deal" they landed was unacceptable to the UK Parliament, then they can be pig-headed and stick with what has proven to be unworkable. If so, they will deserve the Boris No Deal. And the ensuing recession of their own making.
What you are clearly are not comprehending is that "we" will suffer more than "they" with a "Boris no Deal". Obviously you are not used to the heat and it's affecting your thought processes.
Sterling up again this morning and now consistently stronger on the week.
Currency markets understanding clearly what Hammond, Grieve, Gauke et al extraordinarily seem unable to grasp - that to get a decent deal the UK must prepare, credibly, for no deal.
The only deal available is Teresa May's deal. The alternative is No Deal or No Brexit. These are the only choices.
They really arent.
And even if they are, in the longer term the UK is probably better off with no deal than one that ties it into all the costs and disadvantages of EU membership, but none of the benefits.
You only get "all the costs" if you're in the Single Market. Which is a massive benefit, that pays out 10:1 on the net costs.
Any deal will have to preserve an open border with Ireland, and as such will always look something like May's deal. There may be some cosmetic tweaks, but no matter how hard the negotiator believes in Brexit, the deal will always be something like May's.
Sterling up again this morning and now consistently stronger on the week.
Currency markets understanding clearly what Hammond, Grieve, Gauke et al extraordinarily seem unable to grasp - that to get a decent deal the UK must prepare, credibly, for no deal.
The only deal available is Teresa May's deal. The alternative is No Deal or No Brexit. These are the only choices.
Or, you know, they could rethink. Given the "deal" they landed was unacceptable to the UK Parliament, then they can be pig-headed and stick with what has proven to be unworkable. If so, they will deserve the Boris No Deal. And the ensuing recession of their own making.
What you are clearly are not comprehending is that "we" will suffer more than "they" with a "Boris no Deal". Obviously you are not used to the heat and it's affecting your thought processes.
Most people don't understand how things work. Remember Trump thinks that tariffs hurt the countries he attaches the tariffs to when in reality they found other markets and the people hurt were those who sold or added value to the products within the USA...
Still not sure how this happens. If Johnson refuses to resign post loss of VoNC (and why would he - he will want to go into election as PM) the Queen can’t appoint a successor. And without a successor Parliament can’t pass a VoC in a successor. Technically she can sack him but that would be reversing over 200 years of constitutional practice.
There is a reason why until the FTPA the PM could insist on an election - because constitutionally the Queen must act on PM’s advice. I’m not sure how terms of FTPA actually change that (in the specific circumstances of a VoNC) even if they are designed to?
Maybe I'm an idiot, but if a VoNC is lost, then Boris no longer has the confidence of the House. He goes to the Queen and says "Honey, they don't love me no more"*.
Her Majesty then asks her advisors if anyone else has the confidence of the HoC. As there would, presumably, have been maneuverings behind the scenes, there would be an obvious person to call on.
Three of the four Great Offices of State have just been filled by backbenchers.
This has to be a first?
It happens every time the opposition wins a general election.
Two of the top offices of state filled by BAMEs.
I would say they are not really representative of the BAME population of the UK.
Why does that matter?
Priti Patel for instance is a "people repellent" - colour of skin doesn't matter - she disgusts almost everyone!
Does anyone (even on this right-wing blog) have any time for her?
She's a dim-witted piece of right-wing trash!
I'm not a fan of Patel, but that's a rather different thing to your claim in your OP. BAME covers many groupings of people, and Patel's views will be as 'representative' of many of the people within those groups as yours.
I'm reminded of those lefties who said that Thatcher wasn't really a woman because they didn't agree with her views.
Sterling up again this morning and now consistently stronger on the week.
Currency markets understanding clearly what Hammond, Grieve, Gauke et al extraordinarily seem unable to grasp - that to get a decent deal the UK must prepare, credibly, for no deal.
The only deal available is Teresa May's deal. The alternative is No Deal or No Brexit. These are the only choices.
They really arent.
And even if they are, in the longer term the UK is probably better off with no deal than one that ties it into all the costs and disadvantages of EU membership, but none of the benefits.
They really are.
And since they are, in the longer term the UK is probably better off staying in the EU than signing up to a deal that ties it into all the costs and disadvantages of EU membership but none of the benefits, or even worse tries to leave without a deal, leading to a period of economic and political chaos before we coming crawling back to Brussels begging to pay them £39bn.
Time will tell but i beg to differ....
Many things are uncertain but one thing I know with absolute certainty is that "no deal" is a process not a destination. If we leave the EU there will eventually be a deal and it will look a lot like the current deal unless we change our red lines. "no deal" just means we fanny around a bit first, the results of which are highly uncertain but almost certainly negative, and potentially very negative (unless you are a Scot Nat, which I am close to becoming these days, or an Irish Republican).
Sterling up again this morning and now consistently stronger on the week.
Currency markets understanding clearly what Hammond, Grieve, Gauke et al extraordinarily seem unable to grasp - that to get a decent deal the UK must prepare, credibly, for no deal.
The only deal available is Teresa May's deal. The alternative is No Deal or No Brexit. These are the only choices.
They really arent.
And even if they are, in the longer term the UK is probably better off with no deal than one that ties it into all the costs and disadvantages of EU membership, but none of the benefits.
You only get "all the costs" if you're in the Single Market. Which is a massive benefit, that pays out 10:1 on the net costs.
Any deal will have to preserve an open border with Ireland, and as such will always look something like May's deal. There may be some cosmetic tweaks, but no matter how hard the negotiator believes in Brexit, the deal will always be something like May's.
In the event of a no deal the British have said they wont put up a hard border in NI. Coveney and Varadker have similarly said there will be no hard border.
Sterling up again this morning and now consistently stronger on the week.
Currency markets understanding clearly what Hammond, Grieve, Gauke et al extraordinarily seem unable to grasp - that to get a decent deal the UK must prepare, credibly, for no deal.
The only deal available is Teresa May's deal. The alternative is No Deal or No Brexit. These are the only choices.
Or, you know, they could rethink. Given the "deal" they landed was unacceptable to the UK Parliament, then they can be pig-headed and stick with what has proven to be unworkable. If so, they will deserve the Boris No Deal. And the ensuing recession of their own making.
What you are clearly are not comprehending is that "we" will suffer more than "they" with a "Boris no Deal". Obviously you are not used to the heat and it's affecting your thought processes.
Oh, it's cool down here in Devon.....
That the UK hurts more is still no reason for the EU trashing their own economies. Unless, you know, they aren't realy interested in the well-being of their own populations, but only in pursuing a political project.
It really gets on my tits that people here think the EU is being some principled entity by sticking to something that is clearly broken and needs fixing, but has a deal down from the mountain on tablets of stone so, you know, it must be the word of God.
It won't be the Eurocrats that hurt when Boris goes No Deal.
The really odd thing, Nick, is that people like you continue to prioritise Jeremy Corbyn leading the Labour party over defeating the most overtly right wing government this country has ever had. If people do not vote Labour that is Labour's fault and absolutely no-one else's. You and other party members are directly responsible for where we are now. And when Johnson is returned as PM after this autumn's election you will be complicit in that, too.
In many ways, I think the complete opposite is true. Now of all times would be a really, really bad time for Labour to have another leadership challenge, to present themselves as a divided party... we have to focus on stopping Johnson and No Deal.
That's my view too. I think that members' patience with MPs who still want to debate the leadership this summer is now exhausted - even the quite numerous members who actively dislike Corbyn feel we need to get ready for an election instead of debating each other.
And no, SO, I think that it's actually up to anti-No Deal voters to decide whether they prefer Johnson+No Deal to a majority of diverse parties willing to prevent it. If they do, that's up to them - and if one's against No Deal, not voting or voting for someone who won't win in their constituencies is a pro-No Deal choice too.
I know it's difficult, but if there's an early election that will be the choice to consider.
While it is true the latest Brecon poll has a comfortable LD lead on 43% to 28% for the Tories, with the Brexit Party on 20% the Tories and Brexit Party combined are on 48%.
Given how Boris' Cabinet reshuffle was very much targeted at Brexit Party voters, Brecon could be a lot closer now than that poll suggests
The strength of sterling is traditionally viewed against the reserve currency (or a weighted global basket), and £/€ has the additional disadvantage that bad Brexit outcomes hit both currencies. The Euro has been weak this week against some poor EU economic data. With the £ flat against the $ your original "clearly" statement about the markets is nonsense.
Surely the benchmark currency for measuring Brexit is the euro?. There really is nothing to argue about here. Sterling is up on the week..
Best to stay quiet and be thought a fool than to post and remove all doubt....
Except that you are wrong. A transparent attempt to try and cite the currency markets in support of a conclusion you had reached before even looking.
The Euro is down, but the £ isn't up. Against the weighted basket the £ peaked (modestly) on Friday, and dropped marginally through yesterday. The basket isn't calculated for today, but £ being fractionally down against the $ nothing dramatic is happening this morning as yet. The markets are essentially flat, as they (like us) wonder what this all means.
This is hilarious. Sterling is up against the euro over the last week versus the benchmark EU currency! I look at these things for a living. There is no debate and your argument is sophistry.
Given all the tripe pouring out on a daily basis about Boris, not least on PB, this in itself is instructive in the week that BoJo became PM.
I am no particular out and out fan of BJ's but i know sound tactics when i see them.
You appear to struggle with basic comprehension. Yes, the Euro is down across the week. But the £ is not up against either the $ or a basket of world currencies - which it would be, if the currency movements were a vote of confidence in the brilliance of Bozo rather than down to some downside economic data from the Eurozone.
You cant get away on PB with trying to close down debate like that; BS here will always be called out.
Three of the four Great Offices of State have just been filled by backbenchers.
This has to be a first?
It happens every time the opposition wins a general election.
Two of the top offices of state filled by BAMEs.
I would say they are not really representative of the BAME population of the UK.
Why does that matter?
Priti Patel for instance is a "people repellent" - colour of skin doesn't matter - she disgusts almost everyone!
Does anyone (even on this right-wing blog) have any time for her?
She's a dim-witted piece of right-wing trash!
I'm not a fan of Patel, but that's a rather different thing to your claim in your OP. BAME covers many groupings of people, and Patel's views will be as 'representative' of many of the people within those groups as yours.
I'm reminded of those lefties who said that Thatcher wasn't really a woman because they didn't agree with her views.
I was only a kid in the eighties but I never heard anyone say Thatcher wasn't a woman - and I heard a lot of bad things being said about her, growing up in NE England and Scotland where she was almost universally loathed.
Re election forecasts, UNS, etc., is anyone doing a proper Monte Carlo simulation?
In other words, imagine there were 100 seats, and at the last election, every seat was Labour 25, Conervative 75. Opinion polls now show the national outcome as Labour 49, Conservatives 51. On UNS, not a single seat would change. Every one would remain a Conservative hold.
In reality, however, not every seat would change by exactly the same amount. Some would end up as 50/50, some 52/48, some 46/54. By looking at the amount of variation from UNS at the previous election you add a little bit of random variability to individual seat results. In consequence, you end up with a central projection of (say) Labour 35 seats, Conservatie 65. Which, of course, is a much more likely outcome from the changes.
An interesting cabinet from Boris. I wasn't expecting such a strident clearing of the stables.
Like all candidates he would've had to make some awkward promises and has likely had to reward some people with bigger roles than he'd like.
It's disappointing to see Williamson back. I don't like the cut of his jib. I don't like Priti Patel either, too illiberal for me, but Boris might see her as someone who will be strong on law and order. Also, Shapps!! Hmm.
But there are some good promotions. Rishi Sunak as Chief Sec to the Treasury is a good shout. And there are still plenty of grown-ups in the room. Gove, Cox, Rudd and Morgan.
It certainly looks a more traditionally right-wing cabinet in terms of business/economics but it'll be more bark than bite. With a majority on one and Brexit coming soon there's likely to be a GE in the autumn anyway.
While it is true the latest Brecon poll has a comfortable LD lead on 43% to 28% for the Tories, with the Brexit Party on 20% the Tories and Brexit Party combined are on 48%.
Given how Boris' Cabinet reshuffle was very much targeted at Brexit Party voters, Brecon could be a lot closer now than that poll suggests
Final Result maybe something like this:
LD 45% CON 30% BXP 15% OTH 10%
More like LDs 45%, Tories 38%, BXP 8%, Labour 8%
Unlike your Peterborough prediction of a BXP landslide, that one looks pretty good to me. Very difficult to call the Tory percentage after a week like this one.
Still not sure how this happens. If Johnson refuses to resign post loss of VoNC (and why would he - he will want to go into election as PM) the Queen can’t appoint a successor. And without a successor Parliament can’t pass a VoC in a successor. Technically she can sack him but that would be reversing over 200 years of constitutional practice.
There is a reason why until the FTPA the PM could insist on an election - because constitutionally the Queen must act on PM’s advice. I’m not sure how terms of FTPA actually change that (in the specific circumstances of a VoNC) even if they are designed to?
Maybe I'm an idiot, but if a VoNC is lost, then Boris no longer has the confidence of the House. He goes to the Queen and says "Honey, they don't love me no more"*.
Her Majesty then asks her advisors if anyone else has the confidence of the HoC. As there would, presumably, have been maneuverings behind the scenes, there would be an obvious person to call on.
And said person become temporary PM of a GoNAFAE.
I believe it’s up to HOC to prove it has confidence in someone who would then be asked by queen to form government, if after 15 days no one did then GE I would guess Johnson would remain as PM though until either voc passed or GE results.
Mr. HYUFD, might firm up opposition too, boosting both Con and Lib Dem results, no?
There are a great many imponderables. And Mr Johnson should be graeteful his Labour opponent is Mr Corbyn. A moderate Labour leader, like Yvette Cooper, would benefit hugely from tactical voting.
Three of the four Great Offices of State have just been filled by backbenchers.
This has to be a first?
It happens every time the opposition wins a general election.
Two of the top offices of state filled by BAMEs.
I would say they are not really representative of the BAME population of the UK.
Why does that matter?
Priti Patel for instance is a "people repellent" - colour of skin doesn't matter - she disgusts almost everyone!
Does anyone (even on this right-wing blog) have any time for her?
She's a dim-witted piece of right-wing trash!
I'm not a fan of Patel, but that's a rather different thing to your claim in your OP. BAME covers many groupings of people, and Patel's views will be as 'representative' of many of the people within those groups as yours.
I'm reminded of those lefties who said that Thatcher wasn't really a woman because they didn't agree with her views.
It’s funny to watch those engaged in identity politics dismiss people as the “wrong kind of woman” or “wrong kind of BAME”. The woke are slowly consuming themselves.
Sterling up again this morning and now consistently stronger on the week.
Currency markets understanding clearly what Hammond, Grieve, Gauke et al extraordinarily seem unable to grasp - that to get a decent deal the UK must prepare, credibly, for no deal.
No, its not. Its treading water against the $ fractionally down on the session so far.
The strength of sterling is traditionally viewed against the reserve currency (or a weighted global basket), and £/€ has the additional disadvantage that bad Brexit outcomes hit both currencies. The Euro has been weak this week against some poor EU economic data. With the £ flat against the $ your original "clearly" statement about the markets is nonsense.
Surely the benchmark currency for measuring Brexit is the euro?. There really is nothing to argue about here. Sterling is up on the week..
Best to stay quiet and be thought a fool than to post and remove all doubt....
Except that you are wrong. A transparent attempt to try and cite the currency markets in support of a conclusion you had reached before even looking.
The Euro is down, but the £ isn't up. Against the weighted basket the £ peaked (modestly) on Friday, and dropped marginally through yesterday. The basket isn't calculated for today, but £ being fractionally down against the $ nothing dramatic is happening this morning as yet. The markets are essentially flat, as they (like us) wonder what this all means.
This is hilarious. Sterling is up against the euro over the last week versus the benchmark EU currency! I look at these things for a living. There is no debate and your argument is sophistry.
Given all the tripe pouring out on a daily basis about Boris, not least on PB, this in itself is instructive in the week that BoJo became PM.
I am no particular out and out fan of BJ's but i know sound tactics when i see them.
Could you perhaps explain to a layman like me why it's a good idea for your analysis to only take account of the relative movement of the pound and the euro and not also include the seemingly highly relevant information of how both currencies performed relative to the rest of the world?
Everybody knows that Johnson is the lying captain of a very leaky boat. Nobody in Europe is about to climb aboard.
Unless Boris is going for May's deal rebranded no-one is going to believe him.
I think his strategy is to look like he's going for no deal, blame parliament when it stops him, run on a no deal ticket and then use his majority to pivot back to a lipstick/pig version of May's deal, perhaps with a NI-only backstop if he has broken free of the Orangemen's embrace. I don't know if that plan will work out for him but it is probably the only one that could.
Re election forecasts, UNS, etc., is anyone doing a proper Monte Carlo simulation?
In other words, imagine there were 100 seats, and at the last election, every seat was Labour 25, Conervative 75. Opinion polls now show the national outcome as Labour 49, Conservatives 51. On UNS, not a single seat would change. Every one would remain a Conservative hold.
In reality, however, not every seat would change by exactly the same amount. Some would end up as 50/50, some 52/48, some 46/54. By looking at the amount of variation from UNS at the previous election you add a little bit of random variability to individual seat results. In consequence, you end up with a central projection of (say) Labour 35 seats, Conservatie 65. Which, of course, is a much more likely outcome from the changes.
Would that tell us much more?
The distribution of new LD (or BXP) voters is not random.
I'm starting to believe Leave will actually happen.
Its the sackings: Not the sheer quantity, continuity remoan never had a right to any significant cabinet presence before Leaving Day. No, it was the method chosen to defenestrate Hunt. Offer him a lesser job, currently held by one of his *own8 supporters. Then sack the supporter, and offer it again. Morton's Fork. Take it or leave it, Hunt is diminished as an opponent. And BJ's (DominicC?) rep for ruthless action goes up several notches.
He's going to give the EU a real run for their money, esp in co-ordination with Trump.
While it is true the latest Brecon poll has a comfortable LD lead on 43% to 28% for the Tories, with the Brexit Party on 20% the Tories and Brexit Party combined are on 48%.
Given how Boris' Cabinet reshuffle was very much targeted at Brexit Party voters, Brecon could be a lot closer now than that poll suggests
Final Result maybe something like this:
LD 45% CON 30% BXP 15% OTH 10%
More like LDs 45%, Tories 38%, BXP 8%, Labour 8%
If the Conservatives had not chosen a convicted expenses fraudster, they might have won this election.
Sterling up again this morning and now consistently stronger on the week.
Currency markets understanding clearly what Hammond, Grieve, Gauke et al extraordinarily seem unable to grasp - that to get a decent deal the UK must prepare, credibly, for no deal.
No, its not. Its treading water against the $ fractionally down on the session so far.
The strength of sterling is traditionally viewed against the reserve currency (or a weighted global basket), and £/€ has the additional disadvantage that bad Brexit outcomes hit both currencies. The Euro has been weak this week against some poor EU economic data. With the £ flat against the $ your original "clearly" statement about the markets is nonsense.
Surely the benchmark currency for measuring Brexit is the euro?. There really is nothing to argue about here. Sterling is up on the week..
Best to stay quiet and be thought a fool than to post and remove all doubt....
Except that you are wrong. A transparent attempt to try and cite the currency markets in support of a conclusion you had reached before even looking.
The Euro is down, but the £ isn't up. Against the weighted basket the £ peaked (modestly) on Friday, and dropped marginally through yesterday. The basket isn't calculated for today, but £ being fractionally down against the $ nothing dramatic is happening this morning as yet. The markets are essentially flat, as they (like us) wonder what this all means.
This is hilarious. Sterling is up against the euro over the last week versus the benchmark EU currency! I look at these things for a living. There is no debate and your argument is sophistry.
Given all the tripe pouring out on a daily basis about Boris, not least on PB, this in itself is instructive in the week that BoJo became PM.
I am no particular out and out fan of BJ's but i know sound tactics when i see them.
Could you perhaps explain to a layman like me why it's a good idea for your analysis to only take account of the relative movement of the pound and the euro and not also include the seemingly highly relevant information of how both currencies performed relative to the rest of the world?
No i cant. My point is self-evident. Take it or leave.
Versus the euro (the benchmark currency) sterling has strengthened. Moreover , this is contrary to a great deal of the nonsense about Boris spouted on PB.
You dont agree. Fair enough. But the facts are the facts.
The really odd thing, Nick, is that people like you continue to prioritise Jeremy Corbyn leading the Labour party over defeating the most overtly right wing government this country has ever had. If people do not vote Labour that is Labour's fault and absolutely no-one else's. You and other party members are directly responsible for where we are now. And when Johnson is returned as PM after this autumn's election you will be complicit in that, too.
In many ways, I think the complete opposite is true. Now of all times would be a really, really bad time for Labour to have another leadership challenge, to present themselves as a divided party... we have to focus on stopping Johnson and No Deal.
That's my view too. I think that members' patience with MPs who still want to debate the leadership this summer is now exhausted - even the quite numerous members who actively dislike Corbyn feel we need to get ready for an election instead of debating each other.
And no, SO, I think that it's actually up to anti-No Deal voters to decide whether they prefer Johnson+No Deal to a majority of diverse parties willing to prevent it. If they do, that's up to them - and if one's against No Deal, not voting or voting for someone who won't win in their constituencies is a pro-No Deal choice too.
I know it's difficult, but if there's an early election that will be the choice to consider.
The Labour party is going to spend the summer and early autumn deciding whether to deslect its MPs. It is not interested in actively preventing a No Deal Brexit. Millions of voters have abandoned the party because they do not feel that it speaks for or represents them. That is Labour's fault, no-one else's. Your choice as a Labour member is to prioritise Jeremy Corbyn's leadership over defeating the Tories. You are therefore complicit in Labour's decline and in the empowerment of the hard right. No getting round that Nick, I'm afraid.
Three of the four Great Offices of State have just been filled by backbenchers.
This has to be a first?
It happens every time the opposition wins a general election.
Two of the top offices of state filled by BAMEs.
I would say they are not really representative of the BAME population of the UK.
Why does that matter?
Priti Patel for instance is a "people repellent" - colour of skin doesn't matter - she disgusts almost everyone!
Does anyone (even on this right-wing blog) have any time for her?
She's a dim-witted piece of right-wing trash!
I'm not a fan of Patel, but that's a rather different thing to your claim in your OP. BAME covers many groupings of people, and Patel's views will be as 'representative' of many of the people within those groups as yours.
I'm reminded of those lefties who said that Thatcher wasn't really a woman because they didn't agree with her views.
It’s funny to watch those engaged in identity politics dismiss people as the “wrong kind of woman” or “wrong kind of BAME”. The woke are slowly consuming themselves.
Do you have any examples of this? The only times I remember seeing this recently is with left wing Jews being told that we're not really Jews
The strength of sterling is traditionally viewed against the reserve currency (or a weighted global basket), and £/€ has the additional disadvantage that bad Brexit outcomes hit both currencies. The Euro has been weak this week against some poor EU economic data. With the £ flat against the $ your original "clearly" statement about the markets is nonsense.
Surely the benchmark currency for measuring Brexit is the euro?. There really is nothing to argue about here. Sterling is up on the week..
Best to stay quiet and be thought a fool than to post and remove all doubt....
Except that you are wrong. A transparent attempt to try and cite the currency markets in support of a conclusion you had reached before even looking.
The Euro is down, but the £ isn't up. Against the weighted basket the £ peaked (modestly) on Friday, and dropped marginally through yesterday. The basket isn't calculated for today, but £ being fractionally down against the $ nothing dramatic is happening this morning as yet. The markets are essentially flat, as they (like us) wonder what this all means.
This is hilarious. Sterling is up against the euro over the last week versus the benchmark EU currency! I look at these things for a living. There is no debate and your argument is sophistry.
Given all the tripe pouring out on a daily basis about Boris, not least on PB, this in itself is instructive in the week that BoJo became PM.
I am no particular out and out fan of BJ's but i know sound tactics when i see them.
You appear to struggle with basic comprehension. Yes, the Euro is down across the week. But the £ is not up against either the $ or a basket of world currencies - which it would be, if the currency movements were a vote of confidence in the brilliance of Bozo rather than down to some downside economic data from the Eurozone.
You cant get away on PB with trying to close down debate like that; BS here will always be called out.
Mr. HYUFD, might firm up opposition too, boosting both Con and Lib Dem results, no?
There are a great many imponderables. And Mr Johnson should be graeteful his Labour opponent is Mr Corbyn. A moderate Labour leader, like Yvette Cooper, would benefit hugely from tactical voting.
This surely is very large in our new PM’s thinking. If there is to be a GE it is critical that it occurs before Labour gets its act together. Even they must be getting seriously bored of the incompetence, stupidity and just plain nastiness by now
The stmic data. With the £ flat against the $ your original "clearly" statement abkets is nonsense.
out here. Sterling is up on the week..
Best to stay quiet and be thought a fool than to post and remove all doubt....
Except that you are wrong. A transparent attempt to try and cite the currency markets in support of a conclusion you had reached before even looking.
The Euro is down, but the £ isn't up. Against the weighted basket the £ peaked (modestly) on Friday, and dropped marginally through yesterday. The basket isn't calculated for today, but £ being fractionally down against the $ nothing dramatic is happening this morning as yet. The markets are essentially flat, as they (like us) wonder what this all means.
This is hilarious. Sterling is up against the euro over the last week versus the benchmark EU currency! I look at these things for a living. There is no debate and your argument is sophistry.
Given all the tripe pouring out on a daily basis about Boris, not least on PB, this in itself is instructive in the week that BoJo became PM.
I am no particular out and out fan of BJ's but i know sound tactics when i see them.
Could you perhaps explain to a layman like me why it's a good idea for your analysis to only take account of the relative movement of the pound and the euro and not also include the seemingly highly relevant information of how both currencies performed relative to the rest of the world?
No i cant. My point is self-evident. Take it or leave.
Versus the euro (the benchmark currency) sterling has strengthened. Moreover , this is contrary to a great deal of the nonsense about Boris spouted on PB.
You dont agree. Fair enough. But the facts are the facts.
Unlike most of our political analysis, this is one where the facts are open for inspection right away. Any PB'er interested to see whether the £ has surged over the past 24 hours (or indeed week) on the back of Bozo's brilliance can go look for themselves, and draw their own conclusions.
Other readers are probably bored of the subject by now.
Three of the four Great Offices of State have just been filled by backbenchers.
This has to be a first?
It happens every time the opposition wins a general election.
Two of the top offices of state filled by BAMEs.
I would say they are not really representative of the BAME population of the UK.
Why does that matter?
Priti Patel for instance is a "people repellent" - colour of skin doesn't matter - she disgusts almost everyone!
Does anyone (even on this right-wing blog) have any time for her?
She's a dim-witted piece of right-wing trash!
I'm not a fan of Patel, but that's a rather different thing to your claim in your OP. BAME covers many groupings of people, and Patel's views will be as 'representative' of many of the people within those groups as yours.
I'm reminded of those lefties who said that Thatcher wasn't really a woman because they didn't agree with her views.
It’s funny to watch those engaged in identity politics dismiss people as the “wrong kind of woman” or “wrong kind of BAME”. The woke are slowly consuming themselves.
I don't know if I count as woke or not but I think it is perfectly possible to be glad that the Home Secretary is an Asian woman and less glad that the Asian woman in question is Priti Patel.
Sterling up again this morning and now consistently stronger on the week.
Currency markets understanding clearly what Hammond, Grieve, Gauke et al extraordinarily seem unable to grasp - that to get a decent deal the UK must prepare, credibly, for no deal.
No, its not. Its treading water against the $ fractionally down on the session so far.
The strength of sterling is traditionally viewed against the reserve currency (or a weighted globaweak this week against some poor EU economic data. With the £ flat against the $ your original "clearly" statement about the markets is nonsense.
Surely the benchmark currency for measuring Brexit is the euro?. There really is nothing to argue about here. Sterling is up on the week..
Best to stay quiet and be thought a fool than to post and remove all doubt....
Except that you are wrong. A transparent attempt to try and cite the currency markets in support of a conclusion you had reached before even looking.
The Euro is down, but the £ isn't up. Against the weighted basket the £ peaked (modestly) on Friday, and dropped marginally through yesterday. The basket isn't calculated for today, but £ being fractionally down against the $ nothing dramatic is happening this morning as yet. The markets are essentially flat, as they (like us) wonder what this all means.
This is hilarious. Sterling is up against the euro over the last week versus the benchmark EU currency! I look at these things for a living. There is no debate and your argument is sophistry.
Given all the tripe pouring out on a daily basis about Boris, not least on PB, this in itself is instructive in the week that BoJo became PM.
I am no particular out and out fan of BJ's but i know sound tactics when i see them.
Could you perhaps explain to a layman like me why it's a good idea for your analysis to only take account of the relative movement of the pound and the euro and not also include the seemingly highly relevant information of how both currencies performed relative to the rest of the world?
No i cant. My point is self-evident. Take it or leave.
Versus the euro (the benchmark currency) sterling has strengthened. Moreover , this is contrary to a great deal of the nonsense about Boris spouted on PB.
You dont agree. Fair enough. But the facts are the facts.
Choice of "can't" over "won't" there is rather telling
I am upset about Penny Mourdant being dropped. I thought Johnny Mercer had been promised defence. Another Boris lie.
I am deeply depressed about the state of politics. I dreamt last night that I was in a room with Farage, Corbyn and Boris and my gun had only two bullets.
The Tories get an even bigger majority. The resurgence of the LDs is a big opportunity for the Tories. It would be in their interests to actually encourage it. The only counter is a very smart tactical voting strategy from the anti-Tory parties.
I think that's correct. Boris has a high floor but a low ceiling - he won't get more than 33% or so. The LibDems will do well but I can't see them getting much over 20% - already an excellent improvement. The election will hinge on whethe voters like Olly T and Cyclefree who dislike Boris, Corbyn and No Deal with almost equal passion, are prepared to vote tactically (for Labour if necessary - but also Labour voters in LibDem targets voting LibDem). If they do, Boris will be out and we'll see a Remain-leaning hung Parliament. If they don't, we'll see No Deal.
tbh I thought Olly's conclusion the other day that he wouldn't support his moderate Labour MP because it might be interpreted as support for Cornyn was odd - it's obvious there isn't going to be a majority for hard left policies, and unlikely to be one for Labour, so I'd have thought that stopping No Deal - a very real possibility - would take priority. But these are strange times, and I'm not sure most people otgher than the diminishing band of partisans like me now really know how they'll vote.
Nick, my point about not voting for our Labour MP who I like because it will be counted as a vote for Corbyn is sensible if you have the objective of seeing Corbyn and the 4 Ms ditched from the leadership.
I want to see Labour return to a more mainstream leadership and offering a viable opposition. Voting Labour now is counter-productive because if Corbyn does well again, as in 2017, the Corbynistas will interpret that as people clamouring for Corbyn-style politics.
Many people, remainers in particular, voted Labour in 2017 for tactical reasons and it was immediately interpreted as a great success for Corbyn and his policies. I don't believe it was a positive vote for Corbyn but the net result was it made his position safe. Anyone wanting to see Labour move back from the hard left knows that the only thing that will bring that about is a heavy electoral defeat - we are replaying the Foot/SDP Alliance years of the 80's and it will eventually end the same way.
We need PR but the old duopoly do too well out of FPTP so it will never happen. Catch-22 we will never elect a government in favour of PR because FPTP will always produce governments that stand to lose from PR.
Sterling up again this morning and now consistently stronger on the week.
Currency markets understanding clearly what Hammond, Grieve, Gauke et al extraordinarily seem unable to grasp - that to get a decent deal the UK must prepare, credibly, for no deal.
The only deal available is Teresa May's deal. The alternative is No Deal or No Brexit. These are the only choices.
Or, you know, they could rethink. Given the "deal" they landed was unacceptable to the UK Parliament, then they can be pig-headed and stick with what has proven to be unworkable. If so, they will deserve the Boris No Deal. And the ensuing recession of their own making.
What you are clearly are not comprehending is that "we" will suffer more than "they" with a "Boris no Deal". Obviously you are not used to the heat and it's affecting your thought processes.
Oh, it's cool down here in Devon.....
That the UK hurts more is still no reason for the EU trashing their own economies. Unless, you know, they aren't realy interested in the well-being of their own populations, but only in pursuing a political project.
It really gets on my tits that people here think the EU is being some principled entity by sticking to something that is clearly broken and needs fixing, but has a deal down from the mountain on tablets of stone so, you know, it must be the word of God.
It won't be the Eurocrats that hurt when Boris goes No Deal.
And it will not be Johnson and his mates either.
But here's the thing - we export 45% of our goods into one single market. On the other side of the table there are 27 individual EU member states that export much smaller percentages of their goods into the UK market. They are obviously and inevitably going to feel less pain than we do. The one country that might not is Ireland, but it will be looked after. That is the politics of all this.
Three of the four Great Offices of State have just been filled by backbenchers.
This has to be a first?
It happens every time the opposition wins a general election.
Two of the top offices of state filled by BAMEs.
I would say they are not really representative of the BAME population of the UK.
Why does that matter?
Priti Patel for instance is a "people repellent" - colour of skin doesn't matter - she disgusts almost everyone!
Does anyone (even on this right-wing blog) have any time for her?
She's a dim-witted piece of right-wing trash!
I'm not a fan of Patel, but that's a rather different thing to your claim in your OP. BAME covers many groupings of people, and Patel's views will be as 'representative' of many of the people within those groups as yours.
I'm reminded of those lefties who said that Thatcher wasn't really a woman because they didn't agree with her views.
It’s funny to watch those engaged in identity politics dismiss people as the “wrong kind of woman” or “wrong kind of BAME”. The woke are slowly consuming themselves.
I don't know if I count as woke or not but I think it is perfectly possible to be glad that the Home Secretary is an Asian woman and less glad that the Asian woman in question is Priti Patel.
An interesting cabinet from Boris. I wasn't expecting such a strident clearing of the stables.
Like all candidates he would've had to make some awkward promises and has likely had to reward some people with bigger roles than he'd like.
It's disappointing to see Williamson back. I don't like the cut of his jib. I don't like Priti Patel either, too illiberal for me, but Boris might see her as someone who will be strong on law and order. Also, Shapps!! Hmm.
But there are some good promotions. Rishi Sunak as Chief Sec to the Treasury is a good shout. And there are still plenty of grown-ups in the room. Gove, Cox, Rudd and Morgan.
It certainly looks a more traditionally right-wing cabinet in terms of business/economics but it'll be more bark than bite. With a majority on one and Brexit coming soon there's likely to be a GE in the autumn anyway.
Cleverly looks a good appointment. I have confidence he will knock the party into shape ahead of an election, whenever called.
Williamson = Wormtongue. But then Gove = Wormtongue, so maybe they negate each other?
While it is true the latest Brecon poll has a comfortable LD lead on 43% to 28% for the Tories, with the Brexit Party on 20% the Tories and Brexit Party combined are on 48%.
Given how Boris' Cabinet reshuffle was very much targeted at Brexit Party voters, Brecon could be a lot closer now than that poll suggests
Final Result maybe something like this:
LD 45% CON 30% BXP 15% OTH 10%
More like LDs 45%, Tories 38%, BXP 8%, Labour 8%
If the Conservatives had not chosen a convicted expenses fraudster, they might have won this election.
Perhaps but he might also have stood as an Independent.
Better to let him be the fall guy and pick a fresh candidate for the general election
"The knowingness that Johnson has exploited to such great effect works within a circle of collusion. Outside the circle, knowingness is just plain old knowledge."
One difference between Trump and Johnson is that Trump's circle of collusion extends beyond the US.
The really odd thing, Nick, is that people like you continue to prioritise Jeremy Corbyn leading the Labour party over defeating the most overtly right wing government this country has ever had. If people do not vote Labour that is Labour's fault and absolutely no-one else's. You and other party members are directly responsible for where we are now. And when Johnson is returned as PM after this autumn's election you will be complicit in that, too.
In many ways, I think the complete opposite is true. Now of all times would be a really, really bad time for Labour to have another leadership challenge, to present themselves as a divided party... we have to focus on stopping Johnson and No Deal.
That's my view too. I think that members' patience with MPs who still want to debate the leadership this summer is now exhausted - even the quite numerous members who actively dislike Corbyn feel we need to get ready for an election instead of debating each other.
And no, SO, I think that it's actually up to anti-No Deal voters to decide whether they prefer Johnson+No Deal to a majority of diverse parties willing to prevent it. If they do, that's up to them - and if one's against No Deal, not voting or voting for someone who won't win in their constituencies is a pro-No Deal choice too.
I know it's difficult, but if there's an early election that will be the choice to consider.
The Labour party is going to spend the summer and early autumn deciding whether to deslect its MPs. It is not interested in actively preventing a No Deal Brexit. Millions of voters have abandoned the party because they do not feel that it speaks for or represents them. That is Labour's fault, no-one else's. Your choice as a Labour member is to prioritise Jeremy Corbyn's leadership over defeating the Tories. You are therefore complicit in Labour's decline and in the empowerment of the hard right. No getting round that Nick, I'm afraid.
I'm getting flashbacks. Wasn't it last year, you were convinced Labour would be deselecting all their MPs, and Corbyn was going to vote for a No Deal Brexit?
No i cant. My point is self-evident. Take it or leave.
Versus the euro (the benchmark currency) sterling has strengthened. Moreover , this is contrary to a great deal of the nonsense about Boris spouted on PB.
You dont agree. Fair enough. But the facts are the facts.
Isn't this a case of "buy the rumour, sell the news"? In other words, people bought Euros on the basis of Boris becoming PM (and the GBP fell as Boris's odds strengthened), and then once it had actually happened they reversed their position.
Theresa May announced resignation, what, mid-May. GBPEUR 1.15ish (from memory), reaches low of 1.11 a few days ago, when it is clear Boris will become PM, before rallying in the last two days to 1.12.
Not exactly the most staggerlingly large of shifts.
Three of the four Great Offices of State have just been filled by backbenchers.
This has to be a first?
It happens every time the opposition wins a general election.
Two of the top offices of state filled by BAMEs.
I would say they are not really representative of the BAME population of the UK.
Why does that matter?
Priti Patel for instance is a "people repellent" - colour of skin doesn't matter - she disgusts almost everyone!
Does anyone (even on this right-wing blog) have any time for her?
She's a dim-witted piece of right-wing trash!
I'm not a fan of Patel, but that's a rather different thing to your claim in your OP. BAME covers many groupings of people, and Patel's views will be as 'representative' of many of the people within those groups as yours.
I'm reminded of those lefties who said that Thatcher wasn't really a woman because they didn't agree with her views.
It’s funny to watch those engaged in identity politics dismiss people as the “wrong kind of woman” or “wrong kind of BAME”. The woke are slowly consuming themselves.
I don't know if I count as woke or not but I think it is perfectly possible to be glad that the Home Secretary is an Asian woman and less glad that the Asian woman in question is Priti Patel.
Mr. HYUFD, might firm up opposition too, boosting both Con and Lib Dem results, no?
There are a great many imponderables. And Mr Johnson should be graeteful his Labour opponent is Mr Corbyn. A moderate Labour leader, like Yvette Cooper, would benefit hugely from tactical voting.
This surely is very large in our new PM’s thinking. If there is to be a GE it is critical that it occurs before Labour gets its act together. Even they must be getting seriously bored of the incompetence, stupidity and just plain nastiness by now
Nick Palmer is entirely representative of the Labour membership. His priority is Jeremy Corbyn leading Labour, not Labour defeating the Tories. That is not going to change.
The Tories get an even bigger majority. The resurgence of the LDs is a big opportunity for the Tories. It would be in their interests to actually encourage it. The only counter is a very smart tactical voting strategy from the anti-Tory parties.
I think that's correct. Boris has a high floor but a low ceiling - he won't get more than 33% or so. The LibDems will do well but I can't see them getting much over 20% - already an excellent improvement. The election will hinge on whethe voters like Olly T and Cyclefree who dislike Boris, Corbyn and No Deal with almost equal passion, are prepared to vote tactically (for Labour if necessary - but also Labour voters in LibDem targets voting LibDem). If they do, Boris will be out and we'll see a Remain-leaning hung Parliament. If they don't, we'll see No Deal.
tbh I thought Olly's conclusion the other day that he wouldn't support his moderate Labour MP because it might be interpreted as support for Cornyn was odd - it's obvious there isn't going to be a majority for hard left policies, and unlikely to be one for Labour, so I'd have thought that stopping No Deal - a very real possibility - would take priority. But these are strange times, and I'm not sure most people otgher than the diminishing band of partisans like me now really know how they'll vote.
Nick, my point about not voting for our Labour MP who I like because it will be counted as a vote for Corbyn is sensible if you have the objective of seeing Corbyn and the 4 Ms ditched from the leadership.
I want to see Labour return to a more mainstream leadership and offering a viable opposition. Voting Labour now is counter-productive because if Corbyn does well again, as in 2017, the Corbynistas will interpret that as people clamouring for Corbyn-style politics.
Many people, remainers in particular, voted Labour in 2017 for tactical reasons and it was immediately interpreted as a great success for Corbyn and his policies. I don't believe it was a positive vote for Corbyn but the net result was it made his position safe. Anyone wanting to see Labour move back from the hard left knows that the only thing that will bring that about is a heavy electoral defeat - we are replaying the Foot/SDP Alliance years of the 80's and it will eventually end the same way.
We need PR but the old duopoly do too well out of FPTP so it will never happen. Catch-22 we will never elect a government in favour of PR because FPTP will always produce governments that stand to lose from PR.
While all that - needs must means that in my Labour / Tory seat I have no choice but to vote Labour unless things really change.
No i cant. My point is self-evident. Take it or leave.
Versus the euro (the benchmark currency) sterling has strengthened. Moreover , this is contrary to a great deal of the nonsense about Boris spouted on PB.
You dont agree. Fair enough. But the facts are the facts.
You sound like Cabinet material. Home Secretary even.
While it is true the latest Brecon poll has a comfortable LD lead on 43% to 28% for the Tories, with the Brexit Party on 20% the Tories and Brexit Party combined are on 48%.
Given how Boris' Cabinet reshuffle was very much targeted at Brexit Party voters, Brecon could be a lot closer now than that poll suggests
Final Result maybe something like this:
LD 45% CON 30% BXP 15% OTH 10%
More like LDs 45%, Tories 38%, BXP 8%, Labour 8%
If the Conservatives had not chosen a convicted expenses fraudster, they might have won this election.
Perhaps but he might also have stood as an Independent.
Better to let him be the fall guy and pick a fresh candidate for the general election
Although his standing as an independent might have handed Bozo a convenient excuse...
I think those high on Johnson's Kool aid this morning should remember two key facts:
1) TBP voters may be largely ex-Tory, but there are a significant number who are pure protest voters who will not be coming to BoJo no matter what. In fact the could even head to the Lib Dems under certain conditions. So adding TBP+Tory to create a Johnson Tory plurality is only partly valid. 2) Elections in the UK are generally won by those who control the centre, and Johnson has not just alienated his opponents in other parties, he has comprehensively burned his bridges with a significant minority on his own side.
Therefore going full alt-Right may not be the tactical advantage that HYFUD and others think it is. In fact if you lose one moderate Conservative voter for every ex-TBP voter you gain, then the party stays marooned in the low twenties in the polls.
More to the point, many TBP voters are either in solid Tory areas, like eastern England, or unwinnable Labour seats, like Hartlepool. The new Lib Dem voters are in the South and South West of England- lots of potentially highly marginal seats there. Meanwhile the Scottish Conservatives at Westminster are also facing Lib Dem challenges in the North East or from the SNP elsewhere, and Johnson is so disliked north of the border, that he will lose many, and maybe most of those seats too.
In short, If Labour remain pinned back in the high teens (which seems likely given what a liability Corbyn is), and the Lib Dems in the mid-high twenties (also quite possible under the Swinson surge), there is a plausible case for the opposite of the Thatcher years: that the Conservatives are not rewarded by FPTP, but severely punished.
I do not underestimate the skills of the American funded alt-Right, such as Cummings, but equally I think it quite possible they have committed a strategic blunder that they will deeply regret at the next general election.
Meanwhile the high chance of an illegal prorogation or other constitutional sleight of hand to ram through a no deal Brexit risks destroying the Conservative Party even ahead of the next vote. Johnson has a working majority of three. There are now anti-Johnson forces in the Parliamentary Conservative Party who have nothing to lose but their self respect: if Johnson goes for cliff-edge, he will be defeated in any Commons vote.
Johnson's attempt to imitate the divide et impera that Margaret Thatcher pulled off may crash on another lesson of history: it repeats itself twice, "first as tragedy, then as farce".
The really odd thing, Nick, is that people like you continue to prioritise Jeremy Corbyn leading the Labour party over defeating the most overtly right wing government this country has ever had. If people do not vote Labour that is Labour's fault and absolutely no-one else's. You and other party members are directly responsible for where we are now. And when Johnson is returned as PM after this autumn's election you will be complicit in that, too.
In many ways, I think the complete opposite is true. Now of all times would be a really, really bad time for Labour to have another leadership challenge, to present themselves as a divided party... we have to focus on stopping Johnson and No Deal.
That's my view too. I think that members' patience with MPs who still want to debate the leadership this summer is now exhausted - even the quite numerous members who actively dislike Corbyn feel we need to get ready for an election instead of debating each other.
And no, SO, I think that it's actually up to anti-No Deal voters to decide whether they prefer Johnson+No Deal to a majority of diverse parties willing to prevent it. If they do, that's up to them - and if one's against No Deal, not voting or voting for someone who won't win in their constituencies is a pro-No Deal choice too.
I know it's difficult, but if there's an early election that will be the choice to consider.
The Labour party is going to spend the summer and early autumn deciding whether to deslect its MPs. It is not interested in actively preventing a No Deal Brexit. Millions of voters have abandoned the party because they do not feel that it speaks for or represents them. That is Labour's fault, no-one else's. Your choice as a Labour member is to prioritise Jeremy Corbyn's leadership over defeating the Tories. You are therefore complicit in Labour's decline and in the empowerment of the hard right. No getting round that Nick, I'm afraid.
I'm getting flashbacks. Wasn't it last year, you were convinced Labour would be deselecting all their MPs, and Corbyn was going to vote for a No Deal Brexit?
Nope. But it is clear that Corbyn wants a No Deal Brexit as he believes - quite rightly - that it is his best shot at power.
The strength of sterling is traditionally viewed against the reserve currency (or a weighted global basket), and £/€ has the additional disadvantage that bad Brexit outcomes hit both currencies. The Euro has been weak this week against some poor EU economic data. With the £ flat against the $ your original "clearly" statement about the markets is nonsense.
Surely the benchmark currency for measuring Brexit is the euro?. There really is nothing to argue about here. Sterling is up on the week..
Best to stay quiet and be thought a fool than to post and remove all doubt....
Except that you are wrong. A transparent attempt to try and cite the currency markets in support of a conclusion you had reached before even looking.
The Euro is down, but the £ isn't up. Against the weighted basket the £ peaked (modestly) on Friday, and dropped marginally through yesterday. The basket isn't calculated for today, but £ being fractionally down against the $ nothing dramatic is happening this morning as yet. The markets are essentially flat, as they (like us) wonder what this all means.
This is hilarious. Sterling is up against the euro over the last week versus the benchmark EU currency! I look at these things for a living. There is no debate and your argument is sophistry.
Given all the tripe pouring out on a daily basis about Boris, not least on PB, this in itself is instructive in the week that BoJo became PM.
I am no particular out and out fan of BJ's but i know sound tactics when i see them.
Could you perhaps explain to a layman like me why it's a good idea for your analysis to only take account of the relative movement of the pound and the euro and not also include the seemingly highly relevant information of how both currencies performed relative to the rest of the world?
No i cant. My point is self-evident. Take it or leave.
Versus the euro (the benchmark currency) sterling has strengthened. Moreover , this is contrary to a great deal of the nonsense about Boris spouted on PB.
You dont agree. Fair enough. But the facts are the facts.
Even as a committed leaver I would accept that parity with the Euro is an inevitable and probably necessary consequence of a no deal Brexit. There is probably a modest upside of leaving with a deal but the markets have been remarkably sanguine about that throughout.
I mentioned this last year but am I alone in thinking Rishi Sunak is a potential future leader of the Conservative Party? He's probably well placed to survive the tsunami when Johnson is swept from office and has time on his side.
If of course Johnson reigns supreme for the next decade, Sunak will still be a youthful successor. I didn't see a price in the listings a couple of days ago - 33s, 50s?
Three of the four Great Offices of State have just been filled by backbenchers.
This has to be a first?
It happens every time the opposition wins a general election.
Two of the top offices of state filled by BAMEs.
I would say they are not really representative of the BAME population of the UK.
Why does that matter?
Priti Patel for instance is a "people repellent" - colour of skin doesn't matter - she disgusts almost everyone!
Does anyone (even on this right-wing blog) have any time for her?
She's a dim-witted piece of right-wing trash!
I'm not a fan of Patel, but that's a rather different thing to your claim in your OP. BAME covers many groupings of people, and Patel's views will be as 'representative' of many of the people within those groups as yours.
I'm reminded of those lefties who said that Thatcher wasn't really a woman because they didn't agree with her views.
It’s funny to watch those engaged in identity politics dismiss people as the “wrong kind of woman” or “wrong kind of BAME”. The woke are slowly consuming themselves.
Do you have any examples of this? The only times I remember seeing this recently is with left wing Jews being told that we're not really Jews
It started with Thatcher, and there’s been some quite unpleasant things said to the likes of Sajid Javid and Priti Patel in recent years.
Mr. HYUFD, might firm up opposition too, boosting both Con and Lib Dem results, no?
There are a great many imponderables. And Mr Johnson should be graeteful his Labour opponent is Mr Corbyn. A moderate Labour leader, like Yvette Cooper, would benefit hugely from tactical voting.
This surely is very large in our new PM’s thinking. If there is to be a GE it is critical that it occurs before Labour gets its act together. Even they must be getting seriously bored of the incompetence, stupidity and just plain nastiness by now
Nick Palmer is entirely representative of the Labour membership. His priority is Jeremy Corbyn leading Labour, not Labour defeating the Tories. That is not going to change.
I guess their view is better to have a 'real' Labour person leading and losing than win a pointless victory by having a faux Labour leader as PM (e.g. Cooper).
Stark staring bonkers to me, but I'm not a member. Many of those Corbyn surrounds himself with weren't even Labour five years ago.
While it is true the latest Brecon poll has a comfortable LD lead on 43% to 28% for the Tories, with the Brexit Party on 20% the Tories and Brexit Party combined are on 48%.
Given how Boris' Cabinet reshuffle was very much targeted at Brexit Party voters, Brecon could be a lot closer now than that poll suggests
Final Result maybe something like this:
LD 45% CON 30% BXP 15% OTH 10%
More like LDs 45%, Tories 38%, BXP 8%, Labour 8%
If the Conservatives had not chosen a convicted expenses fraudster, they might have won this election.
This is, so far as I know, the only poll on Brecon and Radnor:
1) Internet connectivity is poor in this seat, and that will tell against the oldest and most rural voters who are most likely to be Conservative;
2) It was taken before Jane Dodds decided to carefully infuriate everyone by getting muddled and campaigning at sites outside the constituency;
3) It was before the Royal Welsh Show, which is where a lot of discussion about politics will have occurred and where several people may have changed their minds;
4) Finally, it was before yesterday's extraordinary omnishambles.
But since these factors cut across each other, it is anyone's guess how this ultimately plays out.
My guess is that recent events will depress the Tory vote, through abstention, more than it will the Liberal Democrat one. So the chances of an Orange gain have risen.
I still however think this will be close, and probably the Tories are the value bet. No way are they as unlikely to win as the current odds make out.
All very well saying the Tories shouldn't have picked a convicted fraudster and would win this at a crawl otherwise, hut why oh why did the Liberal Democrats pick an outsider who doesn't know the area and is clearly utterly clueless about campaigning?
It’s funny to watch those engaged in identity politics dismiss people as the “wrong kind of woman” or “wrong kind of BAME”. The woke are slowly consuming themselves.
Is it, though, as funny as those who normally rail against PC tokenism celebrating appointments which are blatant examples of PC tokenism?
Under almost any scenario most of the 12 Scottish tories are gone. Ruth Davidson has been very quiet recently. A no deal Brexit is now more unlikely than ever it will be a no deal Exit.
There has to be a good chance Ruth Davidson will leave politics. Brexit has utterly undermined her political position.
I don't see the point of setting up a Scottish Conservative Party that is somewhat associated with a Brexit Party Except In Name that is so toxic they need to get away.
Unless the point is to set up a properly Scottish Conservative Party ahead of independence that Malcolm G etc could sign up to
Either way I don't see Davidson having any reason to stay around.
I am deeply depressed about the state of politics. I dreamt last night that I was in a room with Farage, Corbyn and Boris and my gun had only two bullets.
Mr. HYUFD, might firm up opposition too, boosting both Con and Lib Dem results, no?
There are a great many imponderables. And Mr Johnson should be graeteful his Labour opponent is Mr Corbyn. A moderate Labour leader, like Yvette Cooper, would benefit hugely from tactical voting.
This surely is very large in our new PM’s thinking. If there is to be a GE it is critical that it occurs before Labour gets its act together. Even they must be getting seriously bored of the incompetence, stupidity and just plain nastiness by now
Nick Palmer is entirely representative of the Labour membership. His priority is Jeremy Corbyn leading Labour, not Labour defeating the Tories. That is not going to change.
I guess their view is better to have a 'real' Labour person leading and losing than win a pointless victory by having a faux Labour leader as PM (e.g. Cooper).
Stark staring bonkers to me, but I'm not a member. Many of those Corbyn surrounds himself with weren't even Labour five years ago.
When you have never needed a Labour government or had cause to fear a Tory one you get to play this marvellous, consequence-free games. It is the luxury of privilege (see, also, the Brexit loons).
While it is true the latest Brecon poll has a comfortable LD lead on 43% to 28% for the Tories, with the Brexit Party on 20% the Tories and Brexit Party combined are on 48%.
Given how Boris' Cabinet reshuffle was very much targeted at Brexit Party voters, Brecon could be a lot closer now than that poll suggests
You might be right but not all BXP votes are simply going to transfer - I cannot see working class BXP voters in places like Ystradgynlais in the south of the constituency voting for a, now, very right wing Tory party.
Mr. HYUFD, might firm up opposition too, boosting both Con and Lib Dem results, no?
There are a great many imponderables. And Mr Johnson should be graeteful his Labour opponent is Mr Corbyn. A moderate Labour leader, like Yvette Cooper, would benefit hugely from tactical voting.
This surely is very large in our new PM’s thinking. If there is to be a GE it is critical that it occurs before Labour gets its act together. Even they must be getting seriously bored of the incompetence, stupidity and just plain nastiness by now
Nick Palmer is entirely representative of the Labour membership. His priority is Jeremy Corbyn leading Labour, not Labour defeating the Tories. That is not going to change.
If Johnson is successful in his strategy, I think he will lose Scotland. English nationalism doesn't play well in these parts obviously.
I'm intrigued to see how Swinson tackles the Scottish issue. Will she be as strong on Sindy as she is on Brexit?
It is an interesting point. The Lib Dems now have a clear offer of status quo to those that mistrust change without demonstrable benefit. The offer the Conservatives made so successfully until they trashed their brand with Brexit.
But if independence is now all but inevitable, the Lib Dems will need to make a quick switch.
Comments
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/25/boris-johnson-bluffing-stage-managed
Is it four Etonians including the junior ministers named: Boris, Jo Johnson, JRM and Kwasi?
Does anyone (even on this right-wing blog) have any time for her?
She's a dim-witted piece of right-wing trash!
Oh Labour, only 10%?
Best to stay quiet and be thought a fool than to post and remove all doubt....
Surging.
And since they are, in the longer term the UK is probably better off staying in the EU than signing up to a deal that ties it into all the costs and disadvantages of EU membership but none of the benefits, or even worse tries to leave without a deal, leading to a period of economic and political chaos before we coming crawling back to Brussels begging to pay them £39bn.
Load up the revolver!
The Euro is down, but the £ isn't up. Against the weighted basket the £ peaked (modestly) on Friday, and dropped marginally through yesterday. The basket isn't calculated for today, but £ being fractionally down against the $ nothing dramatic is happening this morning as yet. The markets are essentially flat, as they (like us) wonder what this all means.
Is this then to be the hottest July day since records were first kept? Very likely - is it to be the hottest day in the UK since records were first kept? Possibly - I'm left with the thought that during the mediaeval warm period when grapes were widely cultivated in the UK and English wine was widely produced, there must have been days at least this hot if not hotter but I'll cheerfully concede it's probably been a few hundred years since the UK last saw a daytime maximum temperature above 40c.
The YouGov poll and some comments on here have made me wonder if we are moving to a form of political re-alignment with a return to the "good old days" (as some might see it) of Conservatives vs Liberals - Tories vs Whigs - well, there's a lot of nostalgia out there in TBP land.
Take Labour out of the picture and the opposition to the Conservatives is a non-socialist party of the centre or centre-left. Such parties haven't done badly in the past - Blair walked all over the Conservatives on three occasions and I'd argue Harold Wilson's technocratic Labour party did fairly well - he won three elections with a majority and Feb 74 on points.
It's nowhere near as simple as that though (it never is). The key are those who voted LEAVE in 2016 but are totally opposed to No Deal. As long as the possibility of a departure with a WA or similar exists, they can cling on to Johnson but as the cliff edge approaches and especially as the forecasts of what will happen IF we leave without a WA become more widely known, the question will then be if they are prepared to abandon LEAVE and reluctantly accept we have to remain.
As a final thought it now seems the LDs have become the default party of "our precious union" as the No Deal brigade seem relaxed with the notion of the secession of Scotland.
Given all the tripe pouring out on a daily basis about Boris, not least on PB, this in itself is instructive in the week that BoJo became PM.
I am no particular out and out fan of BJ's but i know sound tactics when i see them.
Any deal will have to preserve an open border with Ireland, and as such will always look something like May's deal. There may be some cosmetic tweaks, but no matter how hard the negotiator believes in Brexit, the deal will always be something like May's.
Everybody knows that Johnson is the lying captain of a very leaky boat. Nobody in Europe is about to climb aboard.
Unless Boris is going for May's deal rebranded no-one is going to believe him.
Her Majesty then asks her advisors if anyone else has the confidence of the HoC. As there would, presumably, have been maneuverings behind the scenes, there would be an obvious person to call on.
And said person become temporary PM of a GoNAFAE.
I'm reminded of those lefties who said that Thatcher wasn't really a woman because they didn't agree with her views.
So who will put it up?
That the UK hurts more is still no reason for the EU trashing their own economies. Unless, you know, they aren't realy interested in the well-being of their own populations, but only in pursuing a political project.
It really gets on my tits that people here think the EU is being some principled entity by sticking to something that is clearly broken and needs fixing, but has a deal down from the mountain on tablets of stone so, you know, it must be the word of God.
It won't be the Eurocrats that hurt when Boris goes No Deal.
And no, SO, I think that it's actually up to anti-No Deal voters to decide whether they prefer Johnson+No Deal to a majority of diverse parties willing to prevent it. If they do, that's up to them - and if one's against No Deal, not voting or voting for someone who won't win in their constituencies is a pro-No Deal choice too.
I know it's difficult, but if there's an early election that will be the choice to consider.
You cant get away on PB with trying to close down debate like that; BS here will always be called out.
In other words, imagine there were 100 seats, and at the last election, every seat was Labour 25, Conervative 75. Opinion polls now show the national outcome as Labour 49, Conservatives 51. On UNS, not a single seat would change. Every one would remain a Conservative hold.
In reality, however, not every seat would change by exactly the same amount. Some would end up as 50/50, some 52/48, some 46/54. By looking at the amount of variation from UNS at the previous election you add a little bit of random variability to individual seat results. In consequence, you end up with a central projection of (say) Labour 35 seats, Conservatie 65. Which, of course, is a much more likely outcome from the changes.
Like all candidates he would've had to make some awkward promises and has likely had to reward some people with bigger roles than he'd like.
It's disappointing to see Williamson back. I don't like the cut of his jib. I don't like Priti Patel either, too illiberal for me, but Boris might see her as someone who will be strong on law and order. Also, Shapps!! Hmm.
But there are some good promotions. Rishi Sunak as Chief Sec to the Treasury is a good shout. And there are still plenty of grown-ups in the room. Gove, Cox, Rudd and Morgan.
It certainly looks a more traditionally right-wing cabinet in terms of business/economics but it'll be more bark than bite. With a majority on one and Brexit coming soon there's likely to be a GE in the autumn anyway.
I don't know if that plan will work out for him but it is probably the only one that could.
The distribution of new LD (or BXP) voters is not random.
And why shouldn’t the lying moron minority get their own representation. No reason why identity politics should be limited to skin colour.
Stupidity and a lack of integrity can be an important part of peoples’ identity too.
Versus the euro (the benchmark currency) sterling has strengthened. Moreover , this is contrary to a great deal of the nonsense about Boris spouted on PB.
You dont agree. Fair enough. But the facts are the facts.
Other readers are probably bored of the subject by now.
I am deeply depressed about the state of politics. I dreamt last night that I was in a room with Farage, Corbyn and Boris and my gun had only two bullets.
I want to see Labour return to a more mainstream leadership and offering a viable opposition. Voting Labour now is counter-productive because if Corbyn does well again, as in 2017, the Corbynistas will interpret that as people clamouring for Corbyn-style politics.
Many people, remainers in particular, voted Labour in 2017 for tactical reasons and it was immediately interpreted as a great success for Corbyn and his policies. I don't believe it was a positive vote for Corbyn but the net result was it made his position safe. Anyone wanting to see Labour move back from the hard left knows that the only thing that will bring that about is a heavy electoral defeat - we are replaying the Foot/SDP Alliance years of the 80's and it will eventually end the same way.
We need PR but the old duopoly do too well out of FPTP so it will never happen. Catch-22 we will never elect a government in favour of PR because FPTP will always produce governments that stand to lose from PR.
But here's the thing - we export 45% of our goods into one single market. On the other side of the table there are 27 individual EU member states that export much smaller percentages of their goods into the UK market. They are obviously and inevitably going to feel less pain than we do. The one country that might not is Ireland, but it will be looked after. That is the politics of all this.
Williamson = Wormtongue. But then Gove = Wormtongue, so maybe they negate each other?
Better to let him be the fall guy and pick a fresh candidate for the general election
"The knowingness that Johnson has exploited to such great effect works within a circle of collusion. Outside the circle, knowingness is just plain old knowledge."
One difference between Trump and Johnson is that Trump's circle of collusion extends beyond the US.
Wasn't it last year, you were convinced Labour would be deselecting all their MPs, and Corbyn was going to vote for a No Deal Brexit?
Theresa May announced resignation, what, mid-May. GBPEUR 1.15ish (from memory), reaches low of 1.11 a few days ago, when it is clear Boris will become PM, before rallying in the last two days to 1.12.
Not exactly the most staggerlingly large of shifts.
Twice.
1) TBP voters may be largely ex-Tory, but there are a significant number who are pure protest voters who will not be coming to BoJo no matter what. In fact the could even head to the Lib Dems under certain conditions. So adding TBP+Tory to create a Johnson Tory plurality is only partly valid.
2) Elections in the UK are generally won by those who control the centre, and Johnson has not just alienated his opponents in other parties, he has comprehensively burned his bridges with a significant minority on his own side.
Therefore going full alt-Right may not be the tactical advantage that HYFUD and others think it is. In fact if you lose one moderate Conservative voter for every ex-TBP voter you gain, then the party stays marooned in the low twenties in the polls.
More to the point, many TBP voters are either in solid Tory areas, like eastern England, or unwinnable Labour seats, like Hartlepool. The new Lib Dem voters are in the South and South West of England- lots of potentially highly marginal seats there. Meanwhile the Scottish Conservatives at Westminster are also facing Lib Dem challenges in the North East or from the SNP elsewhere, and Johnson is so disliked north of the border, that he will lose many, and maybe most of those seats too.
In short, If Labour remain pinned back in the high teens (which seems likely given what a liability Corbyn is), and the Lib Dems in the mid-high twenties (also quite possible under the Swinson surge), there is a plausible case for the opposite of the Thatcher years: that the Conservatives are not rewarded by FPTP, but severely punished.
I do not underestimate the skills of the American funded alt-Right, such as Cummings, but equally I think it quite possible they have committed a strategic blunder that they will deeply regret at the next general election.
Meanwhile the high chance of an illegal prorogation or other constitutional sleight of hand to ram through a no deal Brexit risks destroying the Conservative Party even ahead of the next vote. Johnson has a working majority of three. There are now anti-Johnson forces in the Parliamentary Conservative Party who have nothing to lose but their self respect: if Johnson goes for cliff-edge, he will be defeated in any Commons vote.
Johnson's attempt to imitate the divide et impera that Margaret Thatcher pulled off may crash on another lesson of history: it repeats itself twice, "first as tragedy, then as farce".
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1154301863078109185?s=20
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1154305554258509824?s=20
I mentioned this last year but am I alone in thinking Rishi Sunak is a potential future leader of the Conservative Party? He's probably well placed to survive the tsunami when Johnson is swept from office and has time on his side.
If of course Johnson reigns supreme for the next decade, Sunak will still be a youthful successor. I didn't see a price in the listings a couple of days ago - 33s, 50s?
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6190629/sajid-javid-jeremy-corbyn-denounce-racist-trolls/
Stark staring bonkers to me, but I'm not a member. Many of those Corbyn surrounds himself with weren't even Labour five years ago.
In each foot.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1154309504370139137?s=21
Swinson has written to Corbyn asking him to support the VONC
https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2019/07/advantage-lib-dems-at-the-brecon-by-election/
It shows a clear lead for the Liberal Democrats.
However, some caveats:
1) Internet connectivity is poor in this seat, and that will tell against the oldest and most rural voters who are most likely to be Conservative;
2) It was taken before Jane Dodds decided to carefully infuriate everyone by getting muddled and campaigning at sites outside the constituency;
3) It was before the Royal Welsh Show, which is where a lot of discussion about politics will have occurred and where several people may have changed their minds;
4) Finally, it was before yesterday's extraordinary omnishambles.
But since these factors cut across each other, it is anyone's guess how this ultimately plays out.
My guess is that recent events will depress the Tory vote, through abstention, more than it will the Liberal Democrat one. So the chances of an Orange gain have risen.
I still however think this will be close, and probably the Tories are the value bet. No way are they as unlikely to win as the current odds make out.
All very well saying the Tories shouldn't have picked a convicted fraudster and would win this at a crawl otherwise, hut why oh why did the Liberal Democrats pick an outsider who doesn't know the area and is clearly utterly clueless about campaigning?
I don't see the point of setting up a Scottish Conservative Party that is somewhat associated with a Brexit Party Except In Name that is so toxic they need to get away.
Unless the point is to set up a properly Scottish Conservative Party ahead of independence that Malcolm G etc could sign up to
Either way I don't see Davidson having any reason to stay around.
Afterwards the only choice is a VoNC after government a GONU is prepared...
Also it won't be today - by September I expect a few MPs will have decided that retirement is acceptable to stop what is otherwise inevitable....
You might be right but not all BXP votes are simply going to transfer - I cannot see working class BXP voters in places like Ystradgynlais in the south of the constituency voting for a, now, very right wing Tory party.
But if independence is now all but inevitable, the Lib Dems will need to make a quick switch.