Under almost any scenario most of the 12 Scottish tories are gone. Ruth Davidson has been very quiet recently. A no deal Brexit is now more unlikely than ever it will be a no deal Exit.
There has to be a good chance Ruth Davidson will leave politics. Brexit has utterly undermined her political position.
I don't see the point of setting up a Scottish Conservative Party that is somewhat associated with a Brexit Party Except In Name that is so toxic they need to get away.
Unless the point is to set up a properly Scottish Conservative Party ahead of independence that Malcolm G etc could sign up to
Either way I don't see Davidson having any reason to stay around.
Are you scots?
My guess is that the tories will now hoover up the unionist vote and increase their representation at the expense of the SNP.
You are obviously not with that kind of lack of knowledge of Scottish politics. More likely the Lib Dems would benefit, despite how bad they are.
Malcolm, Your in a good mood this morning, you were almost being nice to the LDs there.
Had to bite my tongue
As an active member of the Scottish Tory party I feel totally betrayed. The last election here was not fought on brexit in fact the 100s of leaflets I delivered did nit mention it. It was fought on the union and Ruth Davidson. She is so much bigger and more important here than Boris.
It won't distract from the fact you predicted she couldn't win her seat, and she got "humped" all the way to Holyrood.
I suppose if I supported Nippy I might be as bitter and twisted as you at the spectacular failures of the SNP in "Government"
Oh dear we are down to childish name calling now, barrel scraping indeed. Perhaps you see 12 years running the country and likely to be at least same again minimum as being "spectacular failures", but hard to justify even with your fevered imagination.
Under almost any scenario most of the 12 Scottish tories are gone. Ruth Davidson has been very quiet recently. A no deal Brexit is now more unlikely than ever it will be a no deal Exit.
There has to be a good chance Ruth Davidson will leave politics. Brexit has utterly undermined her political position.
I don't see the point of setting up a Scottish Conservative Party that is somewhat associated with a Brexit Party Except In Name that is so toxic they need to get away.
Unless the point is to set up a properly Scottish Conservative Party ahead of independence that Malcolm G etc could sign up to
Either way I don't see Davidson having any reason to stay around.
Are you scots?
My guess is that the tories will now hoover up the unionist vote and increase their representation at the expense of the SNP.
You are obviously not with that kind of lack of knowledge of Scottish politics. More likely the Lib Dems would benefit, despite how bad they are.
Malcolm, Your in a good mood this morning, you were almost being nice to the LDs there.
Had to bite my tongue
As an active member of the Scottish Tory party I feel totally betrayed. The last election here was not fought on brexit in fact the 100s of leaflets I delivered did nit mention it. It was fought on the union and Ruth Davidson. She is so much bigger and more important here than Boris.
You’re wasting your breath. 99% of folk around here, and in the Westminster Bubble, know little and care less about Scottish affairs.
Of the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats the vast majority of them are Labour Leave seats Boris could win if he delivers Brexit and wins back Brexit Party voters
Again comparing apples to bridges:
On voteshare of Tories 32%, LDs 23%, Labour 20%, Brexit Party 12% the Tories would gain 49 Labour seats. The LDs would gain only 18 Tory seats
And that is a fact then? Not an opinion? You stated it as a fact. Frankly in the current scenario nobody has a clue.
What about your analogy? Do you agree it is very flawed on all 4 counts?
The Tories got to 32% under Boris in one recent Comres and the LDs and Labour are now polling 15 to 25% in most polls each so no it is a perfectly good scenario and the swings and seat gains absolutely correct
The key to it HY, what you are right to point to, is that in the next GE (that I am convinced is next spring now EU have a no deal UK government so onus is on EU to avoid the no deal hurting their own economy, business (re-election hopes) and EU budgets) Boris will get a big minority of the votes cast GE next Spring. But so did Blair, particularly 2015. So did Thatcher. The Key to Boris getting the seats like you claim he will is what the majority opposition vote does in terms of lending votes to each other, or on other hand splitting the anti Boris vote. My best guess is that you are right because toxic Corbyn won’t be lent votes this time, neither will libdems be forgiven for their part in Osbornes partial austerity measures, where nurses and other public servants carried the water, wealthy actually got tax cuts.
The bit of thinking that is wrong is the appeal of Farage on Labour voters. Just because someone is working class doesn’t mean their instincts are Labour voter, so up north and all over Farage is already reaching to the perverted, the Alf Garnett Army. It is Boris the Britain Trump who voters will think puts his own first with BJFBW and B(housing)FBW who stands better chance of gaining traditional Labour votes. But Boris needs to deliver brexit first to get most the Alf garnett army back, hence no election this side of brexit.
I think those high on Johnson's Kool aid this morning should remember two key facts:
1) TBP voters may be largely ex-Tory, but there are a significant number who are pure protest voters who will not be coming to BoJo no matter what. In fact the could even head to the Lib Dems under certain conditions. So adding TBP+Tory to create a Johnson Tory plurality is only partly valid.
...........................
s attempt to imitate the divide et impera that Margaret Thatcher pulled off may crash on another lesson of history: it repeats itself twice, "first as tragedy, then as farce".
Of the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats the vast majority of them are Labour Leave seats Boris could win if he delivers Brexit and wins back Brexit Party voters.
At most only about 20 Tory Remain seats would ral elections from the right helped by a split liberal left as now
Again comparing apples to bridges:
a) The SNP only had 2 or 3 seats then b) There was no UKIP/Brexit party c) The Liberals/Alliance hadn't learnt about targeting then d) The Tory vote was over 40% in all 3 elections and labour between 28 and 37%
Other than that a perfect analogy
And where did 'at most only about 20 Tory Remain seats will be lost to the LDs' come from? You state opinion as fact. You might be right, you might be wrong, but you don't back this up with anything except a very flawed analogy, that has no comparable data to today.
On voteshare of Tories 32%, LDs 23%, Labour 20%, Brexit Party 12% the Tories would gain 49 Labour seats. The LDs would gain only 18 Tory seats
And that is a fact then? Not an opinion? You stated it as a fact. Frankly in the current scenario nobody has a clue.
What about your analogy? Do you agree it is very flawed on all 4 counts?
The Tories got to 32% under Boris in one recent Comres and the LDs and Labour are now polling 15 to 25% in most polls each so no it is a perfectly good scenario and the swings and seat gains absolutely correct
The analogy? No response.
So comparing Tory figure in one poll to LD and Lab in other polls? That is not flawed?
Swings and seat gains absolutely correct? No consideration that the huge changes that have happened might make uniform swing absolutely useless. Look at Scotland and compare now to a few decades ago.
Absolutely correct? Why bother with an election? Why don't we come to you for the result?
Opinions - great Opinions backed by data and logic - even better But you state stuff as fact when it never is and is often very flawed.
Under almost any scenario most of the 12 Scottish tories are gone. Ruth Davidson has been very quiet recently. A no deal Brexit is now more unlikely than ever it will be a no deal Exit.
There has to be a good chance Ruth Davidson will leave politics. Brexit has utterly undermined her political position.
I don't see the point of setting up a Scottish Conservative Party that is somewhat associated with a Brexit Party Except In Name that is so toxic they need to get away.
Unless the point is to set up a properly Scottish Conservative Party ahead of independence that Malcolm G etc could sign up to
Either way I don't see Davidson having any reason to stay around.
Are you scots?
My guess is that the tories will now hoover up the unionist vote and increase their representation at the expense of the SNP.
You are obviously not with that kind of lack of knowledge of Scottish politics. More likely the Lib Dems would benefit, despite how bad they are.
Malcolm, Your in a good mood this morning, you were almost being nice to the LDs there.
Had to bite my tongue
As an active member of the Scottish Tory party I feel totally betrayed. The last election here was not fought on brexit in fact the 100s of leaflets I delivered did nit mention it. It was fought on the union and Ruth Davidson. She is so much bigger and more important here than Boris.
You’re wasting your breath. 99% of folk around here, and in the Westminster Bubble, know little and care less about Scottish affairs.
I'm a scot and the battleground is the union. With verve and confidence this is easily defendable, especially now that the SNP have proved incompetent and increasingly unpopular in government and Labour have proved equivocal on the union.
Now brexit is sorted one way or other in next 100 days, how is the next speaker market looking? Or, better than the market, who do we think, presumably only from the back benches? would make a very decent speaker?
Would a strong feminist with an anti male bias do a good job?
A lot of people who voted in the referendum do not vote in elections. Getting them to turn out and then vote Tory will be a challenge.
Of course, it''s always a challenge in any election - but Johnson-Cummings would still prefer to fight a second referendum on FPTP than a binary choice.
You could argue that Remain have more of a problem as their base is much younger and the young are far less likely to vote in GEs. Having said that, polling suggests that Remainers are slightly more committed to their cause than Leave, and I think turnout for the next GE is going to be high, even >80%?
Under almost any scenario most of the 12 Scottish tories are gone. Ruth Davidson has been very quiet recently. A no deal Brexit is now more unlikely than ever it will be a no deal Exit.
There has to be a good chance Ruth Davidson will leave politics. Brexit has utterly undermined her political position.
I don't see the point of setting up a Scottish Conservative Party that is somewhat associated with a Brexit Party Except In Name that is so toxic they need to get away.
Unless the point is to set up a properly Scottish Conservative Party ahead of independence that Malcolm G etc could sign up to
Either way I don't see Davidson having any reason to stay around.
Are you scots?
My guess is that the tories will now hoover up the unionist vote and increase their representation at the expense of the SNP.
You are obviously not with that kind of lack of knowledge of Scottish politics. More likely the Lib Dems would benefit, despite how bad they are.
Malcolm, Your in a good mood this morning, you were almost being nice to the LDs there.
Had to bite my tongue
As an active member of the Scottish Tory party I feel totally betrayed. The last election here was not fought on brexit in fact the 100s of leaflets I delivered did nit mention it. It was fought on the union and Ruth Davidson. She is so much bigger and more important here than Boris.
You’re wasting your breath. 99% of folk around here, and in the Westminster Bubble, know little and care less about Scottish affairs.
I'm a scot and the battleground is the union. With verve and confidence this is easily defendable, especially now that the SNP have proved incompetent and increasingly unpopular in government and Labour have proved equivocal on the union.
I feel in no way "betrayed".
LOL, verve and confidence and a handful of voters, how do you defend the indefensible. Tory lickspittles genuflecting to London, your days are numbered.
One thing I don't get is this: the BXP did not stand at the last GE when Labour won these seats. So what BXP votes can the Tories "win back" to win seats they did not win last time? The only way the Tories win current Labour seats is to persuade people who have never voted Tory before to vote for them - or to hope that the LDs take enough Labour votes for them to come through the middle.
Yes, this is a key observation. You have to remember also that the UKIP vote had collapsed in 2017. Theresa May already got the 'Brexit Party' vote.
Now, it is true of course that on the other side Labour's vote looks much diminished compared with 2017, which might mean that Boris could get a majority if he can retain Theresa May's share of the Brexit extremists vote, and not lose too many votes to the LibDems, and hope that enough (but not too many) votes seep away from Labour to the LibDems, especially in Con/Lab marginals. But it's a fairly narrow path, with lots of risks, and with the additional problem that he seems determined to reverse the progress Ruth Davidson had made in Scotland. It relies also on Farage playing ball, and is further complicated by tactical voting.
As at today, I'd say that the most likely outcome of a pre-October 31st election would be a hung parliament, which in itself is a massive risk for the country because we could be without a government in the lead up to crash-out date. If there's an election after October 31st, that's a whole different range of scenarios. One thing at a time!
Swinson is absolutely right to call for a VONC and Corbyn is being predictably useless.
The idea that a failed VONC “bolsters Boris” is being too clever by half. This is not test cricket, it is 20/20. There are just 98 days until October 31.
A VONC has every justification since Boris and his platform have no actual mandate, his Cabinet is full of more crooks than Belmarsh prison, and the Home Sec wants to bring back hanging.
One thing I don't get is this: the BXP did not stand at the last GE when Labour won these seats. So what BXP votes can the Tories "win back" to win seats they did not win last time? The only way the Tories win current Labour seats is to persuade people who have never voted Tory before to vote for them - or to hope that the LDs take enough Labour votes for them to come through the middle.
Cummings et al are relying on the people who delivered Leave the first time round. This next GE is not about traditional parties, it's a second referendum by proxy, using FPTP rather than a simple majority. So yes, the Cummings/Johnson plan relies absolutely on recruiting the working-class "left-behinds" who traditionally voted Labour, hence the emphasis on messages about law & order, the NHS etc. They'll accept some losses to the LibDems, but are mostly hoping the useful idiots in Labour will split the Remain vote to allow them to get a clear majority for the Tories as proxies for Leave.
Which might work (and might not), but won't work very well post Brexit, I think.
Another reason for Corbyn to be a passive leaver.
But if GE happens after Brexit then the dynamics have completely changed - Farage's work is done, the LibDems have lost their big USP.
More likely is that the hardliners realise they can't get a hard Brexit through Parliament, so they either accept a softer Brexit - which they haven't shown much sign of hitherto - or Johnson seeks a mandate for a hard Brexit, which with FPTP in a 4-party system he might just get.
IF Labour voters get behind the LibDems in Mogg's seat, there is every chance.
That would make no sense - Labour last polled 18,757 to the LDs 4,461.
Yes but therein lies the issue. Look at the EU election results and the locals. The 2017 results are so far from recent polls that they are the worst place to start.
Taking the national swings to Mogg's seat would suggest Labour and Lib Dems are currently close to level-pegging, just as they are in the national opinion polls.
Anti-Tory tactical voting could be a complete mess at the next election, particularly as there will be so many people not interested in it working, but simply to support their existing choice of party.
Cummings et al are relying on the people who delivered Leave the first time round. This next GE is not about traditional parties, it's a second referendum by proxy, using FPTP rather than a simple majority. So yes, the Cummings/Johnson plan relies absolutely on recruiting the working-class "left-behinds" who traditionally voted Labour, hence the emphasis on messages about law & order, the NHS etc. They'll accept some losses to the LibDems, but are mostly hoping the useful idiots in Labour will split the Remain vote to allow them to get a clear majority for the Tories as proxies for Leave.
Plausible analysis.
But when it comes to splitting the Remain vote, Labour vs Lib Dem, to the benefit of the Cons it is hardly fair to describe just one side of this as 'useful idiots'.
In practice, the way to go will be seat by seat. If your priority is to stop Johnson/Farage and Hard Brexit, you vote for whichever party is best placed in your constituency.
Given that Remainers are just that little bit brighter than Leavers - this is generally accepted, I think - I expect that Lab/LD will benefit more from tactical voting in a 'Brexit GE' than Con/BP.
We will soon find out by the looks of it - since that election is looking ON.
Labour are useful idiots because in a referendum-by-proxy-GE *any* ambiguity about a party's stance means some dilution of their effectiveness. To be honest, the best thing Labour Remainers could do is push for Labour to campaign in a GE for Leave, to split the Leave vote and allow a single unambiguous "Remain" vote. Not going to happen though.
Anybody who has any interaction with kids will know they basically watch no "tv" in the traditional sense. It is all YouTube, Netflix or iPlayer / ITV Hub (ie a few programmes on catchup).
YouTube is now huge competition to all traditional tv channels, as da kids happily watch it for hours on end (including the ads).
Let me get this right, Corbyn is going to turn up at a rally calling for a GE but simultaneously refuse to table (And as LOTO he is the only person that can with it taking over all Gov't business) a VONC which is the only possible method to try and trigger an immediate GE.
Yes you are right and really this is the big story. Corbyn is not just toxic, but a clown. The loto where anti Boris hopes should go is a toxic clown, surrounded by awful advisors and praetorian guard.
But here’s the kicker: he’s safe as houses in the job, whereas if Ed Milliband was as bad as this Len and the unions will have placed his head on a spike by now! That is the truth that makes Corbyn toxic isn’t it? It’s not the anti semitism hollowing him out, its the fact Len and the unions are keeping something in post that is so shit (to use baldricks phrase) it really shouldn’t be there.
I'm not fan of Jacob Rees-Mogg in general, but I think people are barking up the wrong tree in criticising his appointment as Leader of the House. I think he'll be rather good at it: always polite, punctilious about procedure, and a defender of parliament.
Swinson is absolutely right to call for a VONC and Corbyn is being predictably useless.
The idea that a failed VONC “bolsters Boris” is being too clever by half. This is not test cricket, it is 20/20. There are just 98 days until October 31.
A VONC has every justification since Boris and his platform have no actual mandate, his Cabinet is full of more crooks than Belmarsh prison, and the Home Sec wants to bring back hanging.
Labour have a point. Hard to see any Tories voting against Boris on day 1. If any of them were thinking of doing so, Corbyn would have this information.
I'm not fan of Jacob Rees-Mogg in general, but I think people are barking up the wrong tree in criticising his appointment as Leader of the House. I think he'll be rather good at it: always polite, punctilious about procedure, and a defender of parliament.
Let me get this right, Corbyn is going to turn up at a rally calling for a GE but simultaneously refuse to table (And as LOTO he is the only person that can with it taking over all Gov't business) a VONC which is the only possible method to try and trigger an immediate GE.
What do we want...a GE...when do we want it...erhh not yet.
Thanks for your reply yesterday! I was on my phone and I can't respond from it. Just to say I wasn't challenging the reasoning behind your resignation from the Conservative Party. You'll be a sad loss.
I'm eternally optimistic and I honestly think you'll have reason to be back, sooner rather than later.
This was a Leave country ruled by Remainer politicians, proof of the chasm that now separates elite opinion from public opinion. The new Cabinet goes some way to rectifying that. Now let’s leave. Properly, fully, with no turning back. Out, out, out.
Under almost any scenario most of the 12 Scottish tories are gone. Ruth Davidson has been very quiet recently. A no deal Brexit is now more unlikely than ever it will be a no deal Exit.
There has to be a good chance Ruth Davidson will leave politics. Brexit has utterly undermined her political position.
I don't see the point of setting up a Scottish Conservative Party that is somewhat associated with a Brexit Party Except In Name that is so toxic they need to get away.
Unless the point is to set up a properly Scottish Conservative Party ahead of independence that Malcolm G etc could sign up to
Either way I don't see Davidson having any reason to stay around.
Are you scots?
My guess is that the tories will now hoover up the unionist vote and increase their representation at the expense of the SNP.
You are obviously not with that kind of lack of knowledge of Scottish politics. More likely the Lib Dems would benefit, despite how bad they are.
Malcolm, Your in a good mood this morning, you were almost being nice to the LDs there.
Had to bite my tongue
As an active member of the Scottish Tory party I feel totally betrayed. The last election here was not fought on brexit in fact the 100s of leaflets I delivered did nit mention it. It was fought on the union and Ruth Davidson. She is so much bigger and more important here than Boris.
You’re wasting your breath. 99% of folk around here, and in the Westminster Bubble, know little and care less about Scottish affairs.
I'm a scot and the battleground is the union. With verve and confidence this is easily defendable, especially now that the SNP have proved incompetent and increasingly unpopular in government and Labour have proved equivocal on the union.
I feel in no way "betrayed".
LOL, verve and confidence and a handful of voters, how do you defend the indefensible. Tory lickspittles genuflecting to London, your days are numbered.
One thing I don't get is this: the BXP did not stand at the last GE when Labour won these seats. So what BXP votes can the Tories "win back" to win seats they did not win last time? The only way the Tories win current Labour seats is to persuade people who have never voted Tory before to vote for them - or to hope that the LDs take enough Labour votes for them to come through the middle.
Yes, this is a key observation. You have to remember also that the UKIP vote had collapsed in 2017. Theresa May already got the 'Brexit Party' vote.
Now, it is true of course that on the other side Labour's vote looks much diminished compared with 2017, which might mean that Boris could get a majority if he can retain Theresa May's share of the Brexit extremists vote, and not lose too many votes to the LibDems, and hope that enough (but not too many) votes seep away from Labour to the LibDems, especially in Con/Lab marginals. But it's a fairly narrow path, with lots of risks, and with the additional problem that he seems determined to reverse the progress Ruth Davidson had made in Scotland. It relies also on Farage playing ball, and is further complicated by tactical voting.
As at today, I'd say that the most likely outcome of a pre-October 31st election would be a hung parliament, which in itself is a massive risk for the country because we could be without a government in the lead up to crash-out date. If there's an election after October 31st, that's a whole different range of scenarios. One thing at a time!
Barnesian's calculations earlier suggested the path was relatively wide - at least in a numerical sense. The question is more political.
In 2017 a large enough section of the electorate recoiled from the prospect of a landslide majority for May, and had a clear enough idea of what to do to prevent it, that the pre-campaign opinion polls were worthless.
What is the political impact of a potential majority for a more extreme government? Is the section of the electorate appalled by that prospect able to choose which of Swinson or Corbyn to support to prevent it?
I see good reason to suspect that the later step will not happen. Only Swinson is capable of rallying the level of support necessary to prevent a majority for the hard-right, Corbyn is too tarnished. But I fear that there is sufficient inertia to keep the opposition split, not least due to broadcasting rules.
Swinson is now effectively the Leader of a Remain Coalition.
As the long Twitter thread cited above concludes; the is now Tory/BXP vs the rest.
The focus naturally enough is on Boris and his new Cabinet this week.
Swinson now needs to rise to the occasion. She needs to be newsmaker, not a news-reacter - which will be hard given that Boris’s every fart will be reported on by a demoralised and degraded media.
Anybody who has any interaction with kids will know they basically watch no "tv" in the traditional sense. It is all YouTube, Netflix or iPlayer / ITV Hub (ie a few programmes on catchup).
YouTube is now huge competition to all traditional tv channels, as da kids happily watch it for hours on end (including the ads).
It’s not just da kids. I know a lot of middle-aged folks that have almost completely kicked the tv habit. They’re just too busy with other things. Tv is a huge waste of time.
Soon tv is going to be an OAP wasteland, like landlines. Nobody of working age will be arsed.
I'm not fan of Jacob Rees-Mogg in general, but I think people are barking up the wrong tree in criticising his appointment as Leader of the House. I think he'll be rather good at it: always polite, punctilious about procedure, and a defender of parliament.
Swinson is now effectively the Leader of a Remain Coalition.
As the long Twitter thread cited above concludes; the is now Tory/BXP vs the rest.
The focus naturally enough is on Boris and his new Cabinet this week.
Swinson now needs to rise to the occasion. She needs to be newsmaker, not a news-reacter - which will be hard given that Boris’s every fart will be reported on by a demoralised and degraded media.
That’s why the media is degraded. Nobody is interested in PM BJ’s hourly farts.
Barnesian's calculations earlier suggested the path was relatively wide - at least in a numerical sense. The question is more political.
In 2017 a large enough section of the electorate recoiled from the prospect of a landslide majority for May, and had a clear enough idea of what to do to prevent it, that the pre-campaign opinion polls were worthless.
What is the political impact of a potential majority for a more extreme government? Is the section of the electorate appalled by that prospect able to choose which of Swinson or Corbyn to support to prevent it?
I see good reason to suspect that the later step will not happen. Only Swinson is capable of rallying the level of support necessary to prevent a majority for the hard-right, Corbyn is too tarnished. But I fear that there is sufficient inertia to keep the opposition split, not least due to broadcasting rules.
Yes, you are right that the question is political. One big difference compared with 2017 would be that a vote for the Conservatives would be a vote for a no-deal crash-out, which is a very different kettle of fish from Theresa May's 2017 position. I'm very far from alone in being clear that I won't be voting Conservative if it's a vote for a no-deal exit.
Anybody who has any interaction with kids will know they basically watch no "tv" in the traditional sense. It is all YouTube, Netflix or iPlayer / ITV Hub (ie a few programmes on catchup).
YouTube is now huge competition to all traditional tv channels, as da kids happily watch it for hours on end (including the ads).
It’s not just da kids. I know a lot of middle-aged folks that have almost completely kicked the tv habit. They’re just too busy with other things. Tv is a huge waste of time.
Soon tv is going to be an OAP wasteland, like landlines. Nobody of working age will be arsed.
Absolutely. I basically watch no live tv other than sport.
IF Labour voters get behind the LibDems in Mogg's seat, there is every chance.
That would make no sense - Labour last polled 18,757 to the LDs 4,461.
Yes but therein lies the issue. Look at the EU election results and the locals. The 2017 results are so far from recent polls that they are the worst place to start.
The EU elections have always been taken frivolously and it is well known that the LibDems flatter to deceive at Local Elections. Both have turnouts well under 40% . Moreover, this is a seat where Labour has consistently - even in 2010 - been the main challenger.
I'm not fan of Jacob Rees-Mogg in general, but I think people are barking up the wrong tree in criticising his appointment as Leader of the House. I think he'll be rather good at it: always polite, punctilious about procedure, and a defender of parliament.
Hi Richard. Read your thread piece and just wanted to say both congratulations and commisserations.
It's congratulations because you had the courage of your convictions; commisserations because I understand how difficult and painful the process must have been.
Like Fenster, I hope you will have reason to rejoin one day because that would suggest the Party has rediscovered its reason. Good luck until then, and I do hope you will continue to make your highly regarded contributions to this august forum.
My best guess is that he is now aiming for prorogation. Sooner or later Leavers are each going to have to decide whether they’re ok with the suspension of democracy.
They've shown what they're ok with: race-baiting, lies, potato famines, Trump/Bannon, Putin, corruption, security leaks, undermining the independence of the judiciary and the civil service, etc.
Anybody who has any interaction with kids will know they basically watch no "tv" in the traditional sense. It is all YouTube, Netflix or iPlayer / ITV Hub (ie a few programmes on catchup).
YouTube is now huge competition to all traditional tv channels, as da kids happily watch it for hours on end (including the ads).
It’s not just da kids. I know a lot of middle-aged folks that have almost completely kicked the tv habit. They’re just too busy with other things. Tv is a huge waste of time.
Soon tv is going to be an OAP wasteland, like landlines. Nobody of working age will be arsed.
Apart from sport, does anyone watch live TV any more?
I'm not fan of Jacob Rees-Mogg in general, but I think people are barking up the wrong tree in criticising his appointment as Leader of the House. I think he'll be rather good at it: always polite, punctilious about procedure, and a defender of parliament.
Hi Richard. Read your thread piece and just wanted to say both congratulations and commisserations.
It's congratulations because you had the courage of your convictions; commisserations because I understand how difficult and painful the process must have been.
Like Fenster, I hope you will have reason to rejoin one day because that would suggest the Party has rediscovered its reason. Good luck until then, and I do hope you will continue to make your highly regarded contributions to this august forum.
Swinson is absolutely right to call for a VONC and Corbyn is being predictably useless.
The idea that a failed VONC “bolsters Boris” is being too clever by half. This is not test cricket, it is 20/20. There are just 98 days until October 31.
A VONC has every justification since Boris and his platform have no actual mandate, his Cabinet is full of more crooks than Belmarsh prison, and the Home Sec wants to bring back hanging.
Labour have a point. Hard to see any Tories voting against Boris on day 1. If any of them were thinking of doing so, Corbyn would have this information.
Quite. There is not just no point is tabling a VONC that will fail. Itr would be seriously counter-productive. People like Swinson who suggest it tend to have another agenda.
Anybody who has any interaction with kids will know they basically watch no "tv" in the traditional sense. It is all YouTube, Netflix or iPlayer / ITV Hub (ie a few programmes on catchup).
YouTube is now huge competition to all traditional tv channels, as da kids happily watch it for hours on end (including the ads).
It’s not just da kids. I know a lot of middle-aged folks that have almost completely kicked the tv habit. They’re just too busy with other things. Tv is a huge waste of time.
Soon tv is going to be an OAP wasteland, like landlines. Nobody of working age will be arsed.
OTOH TVs seem to be getting bigger and cheaper all the time. 65" for £500 - £600 !
I'm not fan of Jacob Rees-Mogg in general, but I think people are barking up the wrong tree in criticising his appointment as Leader of the House. I think he'll be rather good at it: always polite, punctilious about procedure, and a defender of parliament.
Anybody who has any interaction with kids will know they basically watch no "tv" in the traditional sense. It is all YouTube, Netflix or iPlayer / ITV Hub (ie a few programmes on catchup).
YouTube is now huge competition to all traditional tv channels, as da kids happily watch it for hours on end (including the ads).
It’s not just da kids. I know a lot of middle-aged folks that have almost completely kicked the tv habit. They’re just too busy with other things. Tv is a huge waste of time.
Soon tv is going to be an OAP wasteland, like landlines. Nobody of working age will be arsed.
OTOH TVs seem to be getting bigger and cheaper all the time. 65" for £500 - £600 !
IF Labour voters get behind the LibDems in Mogg's seat, there is every chance.
That would make no sense - Labour last polled 18,757 to the LDs 4,461.
Yes but therein lies the issue. Look at the EU election results and the locals. The 2017 results are so far from recent polls that they are the worst place to start.
The EU elections have always been taken frivolously and it is well known that the LibDems flatter to deceive at Local Elections. Both have turnouts well under 40% . Moreover, this is a seat where Labour has consistently - even in 2010 - been the main challenger.
With respect you do know there has been an earthquake in politics ripping up past history
Sadly for labour they are caught in a pincer movement between the Conservatives and Lib Dems who are now the respected party for those who want to remain
Swinson is now effectively the Leader of a Remain Coalition.
As the long Twitter thread cited above concludes; the is now Tory/BXP vs the rest.
The focus naturally enough is on Boris and his new Cabinet this week.
Swinson now needs to rise to the occasion. She needs to be newsmaker, not a news-reacter - which will be hard given that Boris’s every fart will be reported on by a demoralised and degraded media.
That’s why the media is degraded. Nobody is interested in PM BJ’s hourly farts.
The internet / social media has destroyed the traditional economics of both print and broadcast media.
Public broadcasting has followed suit, demoralised in this country after the Gillian Affair.
Perhaps eventually a new model will emerge, but net impact today is “fake news” and corrodes our democracy.
Quite. There is not just no point is tabling a VONC that will fail. Itr would be seriously counter-productive.
Yes of course. And of course the LibDems are perfectly aware of that. They just want to be able to accuse Corbyn both of hypocrisy and of not doing anything to Stop Brexit.
Still, whilst that is all entirely predictable, Corbyn didn't have to dig a trap for himself by taking part in a meaningless demonstration calling for what he himself is refusing to do.
Swinson is now effectively the Leader of a Remain Coalition.
As the long Twitter thread cited above concludes; the is now Tory/BXP vs the rest.
The focus naturally enough is on Boris and his new Cabinet this week.
Swinson now needs to rise to the occasion. She needs to be newsmaker, not a news-reacter - which will be hard given that Boris’s every fart will be reported on by a demoralised and degraded media.
That’s why the media is degraded. Nobody is interested in PM BJ’s hourly farts.
The internet / social media has destroyed the traditional economics of both print and broadcast media.
Public broadcasting has followed suit, demoralised in this country after the Gillian Affair.
Perhaps eventually a new model will emerge, but net impact today is “fake news” and corrodes our democracy.
State broadcasting could have made a go of it, if it had prioritised public service. It didn’t, so it won’t.
Swinson is absolutely right to call for a VONC and Corbyn is being predictably useless.
The idea that a failed VONC “bolsters Boris” is being too clever by half. This is not test cricket, it is 20/20. There are just 98 days until October 31.
A VONC has every justification since Boris and his platform have no actual mandate, his Cabinet is full of more crooks than Belmarsh prison, and the Home Sec wants to bring back hanging.
Labour have a point. Hard to see any Tories voting against Boris on day 1. If any of them were thinking of doing so, Corbyn would have this information.
Quite. There is not just no point is tabling a VONC that will fail. Itr would be seriously counter-productive.
I think both Swinson and Corbyn are probably right. It may be cheap politics, but Swinson will energise her base and make the right noises to Lab Remain waverers by raising the flag.
Meanwhile, Corbyn actually has a quasi-constitutional position (because there's an assumption that a full-fat VONC motion from the Leader of the Opposition will get time). In any case, it's all baked-in that he's a rabble rouser who'll take it to the man. And as others have said, he'd lose on day one before BJ pisses people off with specifics. So he probably wins by keeping a cool head and playing the longer game.
Swinson is absolutely right to call for a VONC and Corbyn is being predictably useless.
The idea that a failed VONC “bolsters Boris” is being too clever by half. This is not test cricket, it is 20/20. There are just 98 days until October 31.
A VONC has every justification since Boris and his platform have no actual mandate, his Cabinet is full of more crooks than Belmarsh prison, and the Home Sec wants to bring back hanging.
Labour have a point. Hard to see any Tories voting against Boris on day 1. If any of them were thinking of doing so, Corbyn would have this information.
Quite. There is not just no point is tabling a VONC that will fail. Itr would be seriously counter-productive. People like Swinson who suggest it tend to have another agenda.
Yes and the agenda is trying to stop Brexit and stop the government, neither of which the toxic clown Corbyn is minded to care about.
Most people won't understand the minutiae of why it would or wouldn't work they will just see that it is Swinson that is leading the charge against BoJo while Jezza seems frit.
As @HYUFD has noted, she is looking more like leader of the opposition than Corbyn.
She looked immature on Newsnight when the interviewer asked her why she was offering to work with Corbyn on a VONC when she'd just said she wouldn't work with him in Government. Easy enough question to handle, but she nervously gabbled instead of replying calmly. It's early days and she'll learn, if there's time, but is there?
Quite. There is not just no point is tabling a VONC that will fail. Itr would be seriously counter-productive.
Yes of course. And of course the LibDems are perfectly aware of that. They just want to be able to accuse Corbyn both of hypocrisy and of not doing anything to Stop Brexit.
Still, whilst that is all entirely predictable, Corbyn didn't have to dig a trap for himself by taking part in a meaningless demonstration calling for what he himself is refusing to do.
Corbyn is as big a liar as PM BJ. The last thing he needs or wants is to stop Brexit. The carnage of post-Brexit England is Corbyn’s only route to No10.
Most people won't understand the minutiae of why it would or wouldn't work they will just see that it is Swinson that is leading the charge against BoJo while Jezza seems frit.
As @HYUFD has noted, she is looking more like leader of the opposition than Corbyn.
She looked immature on Newsnight when the interviewer asked her why she was offering to work with Corbyn on a VONC when she'd just said she wouldn't work with him in Government. Easy enough question to handle, but she nervously gabbled instead of replying calmly. It's early days and she'll learn, if there's time, but is there?
Swinson is absolutely right to call for a VONC and Corbyn is being predictably useless.
The idea that a failed VONC “bolsters Boris” is being too clever by half. This is not test cricket, it is 20/20. There are just 98 days until October 31.
A VONC has every justification since Boris and his platform have no actual mandate, his Cabinet is full of more crooks than Belmarsh prison, and the Home Sec wants to bring back hanging.
Labour have a point. Hard to see any Tories voting against Boris on day 1. If any of them were thinking of doing so, Corbyn would have this information.
I have to say one or two things Jo Swinson has done is quite silly. The only VoNC that is lawful now is within the FTPA. No other "No confidence" motion exists. She is playing silly games. It looks like her main enemy is Labour and not the Tories. No change there from 2010-2015, in her case.
Most people won't understand the minutiae of why it would or wouldn't work they will just see that it is Swinson that is leading the charge against BoJo while Jezza seems frit.
As @HYUFD has noted, she is looking more like leader of the opposition than Corbyn.
She looked immature on Newsnight when the interviewer asked her why she was offering to work with Corbyn on a VONC when she'd just said she wouldn't work with him in Government. Easy enough question to handle, but she nervously gabbled instead of replying calmly. It's early days and she'll learn, if there's time, but is there?
Nope.
Scots have known how useless she is for over a decade. You lot are in for a short, sharp learning curve.
Most people won't understand the minutiae of why it would or wouldn't work they will just see that it is Swinson that is leading the charge against BoJo while Jezza seems frit.
As @HYUFD has noted, she is looking more like leader of the opposition than Corbyn.
She looked immature on Newsnight when the interviewer asked her why she was offering to work with Corbyn on a VONC when she'd just said she wouldn't work with him in Government. Easy enough question to handle, but she nervously gabbled instead of replying calmly. It's early days and she'll learn, if there's time, but is there?
Swinson could do with some Thatcher-style voice training, go slower and lower - she tends to gabble a bit and come across a bit shrill from what I've seen of her.
Most people won't understand the minutiae of why it would or wouldn't work they will just see that it is Swinson that is leading the charge against BoJo while Jezza seems frit.
As @HYUFD has noted, she is looking more like leader of the opposition than Corbyn.
She looked immature on Newsnight when the interviewer asked her why she was offering to work with Corbyn on a VONC when she'd just said she wouldn't work with him in Government. Easy enough question to handle, but she nervously gabbled instead of replying calmly. It's early days and she'll learn, if there's time, but is there?
Swinson is absolutely right to call for a VONC and Corbyn is being predictably useless.
The idea that a failed VONC “bolsters Boris” is being too clever by half. This is not test cricket, it is 20/20. There are just 98 days until October 31.
A VONC has every justification since Boris and his platform have no actual mandate, his Cabinet is full of more crooks than Belmarsh prison, and the Home Sec wants to bring back hanging.
Labour have a point. Hard to see any Tories voting against Boris on day 1. If any of them were thinking of doing so, Corbyn would have this information.
Quite. There is not just no point is tabling a VONC that will fail. Itr would be seriously counter-productive. People like Swinson who suggest it tend to have another agenda.
Yep. To capture the public imagination, present herself and the LDs as the true face of opposition to Johnson's Tories, and marginalise your boy Jezza.
Labour are useful idiots because in a referendum-by-proxy-GE *any* ambiguity about a party's stance means some dilution of their effectiveness. To be honest, the best thing Labour Remainers could do is push for Labour to campaign in a GE for Leave, to split the Leave vote and allow a single unambiguous "Remain" vote. Not going to happen though.
Another plausible analysis.
However - come that election there will be many seats where due to tribal factors Labour will be the only non Con/BP party in with a chance. And that chance could well be that little bit higher if their Brexit position is seen as Ref2 but short of full throttle Remain.
Lib Dems should vote Labour in those seats. And I think many will. Likewise Labourites should vote Lib Dem where THEY are in the better position. Again I think many will.
The net impact of all this could - and I hope will - do for Johnson.
Swinson is absolutely right to call for a VONC and Corbyn is being predictably useless.
The idea that a failed VONC “bolsters Boris” is being too clever by half. This is not test cricket, it is 20/20. There are just 98 days until October 31.
A VONC has every justification since Boris and his platform have no actual mandate, his Cabinet is full of more crooks than Belmarsh prison, and the Home Sec wants to bring back hanging.
Labour have a point. Hard to see any Tories voting against Boris on day 1. If any of them were thinking of doing so, Corbyn would have this information.
I have to say one or two things Jo Swinson has done is quite silly. The only VoNC that is lawful now is within the FTPA. No other "No confidence" motion exists. She is playing silly games. It looks like her main enemy is Labour and not the Tories. No change there from 2010-2015, in her case.
That’s because of her political experience in East Dunbartonshire. She’s always had to coax the many Tory supporters in her area to back her tactically, so anti-Labour posturing is part of her basic toolkit.
She has neither the brains nor the energy to quickly adapt her toolbox.
I'm not fan of Jacob Rees-Mogg in general, but I think people are barking up the wrong tree in criticising his appointment as Leader of the House. I think he'll be rather good at it: always polite, punctilious about procedure, and a defender of parliament.
Hi Richard. Read your thread piece and just wanted to say both congratulations and commisserations.
It's congratulations because you had the courage of your convictions; commisserations because I understand how difficult and painful the process must have been.
Like Fenster, I hope you will have reason to rejoin one day because that would suggest the Party has rediscovered its reason. Good luck until then, and I do hope you will continue to make your highly regarded contributions to this august forum.
Most people won't understand the minutiae of why it would or wouldn't work they will just see that it is Swinson that is leading the charge against BoJo while Jezza seems frit.
As @HYUFD has noted, she is looking more like leader of the opposition than Corbyn.
She looked immature on Newsnight when the interviewer asked her why she was offering to work with Corbyn on a VONC when she'd just said she wouldn't work with him in Government. Easy enough question to handle, but she nervously gabbled instead of replying calmly. It's early days and she'll learn, if there's time, but is there?
Didn't see it. And I'm not convinced you are the impartial observer I would want an account from, Nick.
One thing I don't get is this: the BXP did not stand at the last GE when Labour won these seats. So what BXP votes can the Tories "win back" to win seats they did not win last time? The only way the Tories win current Labour seats is to persuade people who have never voted Tory before to vote for them - or to hope that the LDs take enough Labour votes for them to come through the middle.
Yes, this is a key observation. You have to remember also that the UKIP vote had collapsed in 2017. Theresa May already got the 'Brexit Party' vote.
Now, it is true of course that on the other side Labour's vote looks much diminished compared with 2017, which might mean that Boris could get a majority if he can retain Theresa May's share of the Brexit extremists vote, and not lose too many votes to the LibDems, and hope that enough (but not too many) votes seep away from Labour to the LibDems, especially in Con/Lab marginals. But it's a fairly narrow path, with lots of risks, and with the additional problem that he seems determined to reverse the progress Ruth Davidson had made in Scotland. It relies also on Farage playing ball, and is further complicated by tactical voting.
As at today, I'd say that the most likely outcome of a pre-October 31st election would be a hung parliament, which in itself is a massive risk for the country because we could be without a government in the lead up to crash-out date. If there's an election after October 31st, that's a whole different range of scenarios. One thing at a time!
The Tories are going to have to win an awful lot of Northern and Midland seats to make up for Lib Dem gains. That's not impossible because it's hard to see Labour polling anything similar to 2017 but they'll need just enough help from the BXP and Lib Dems
IF Labour voters get behind the LibDems in Mogg's seat, there is every chance.
That would make no sense - Labour last polled 18,757 to the LDs 4,461.
Yes but therein lies the issue. Look at the EU election results and the locals. The 2017 results are so far from recent polls that they are the worst place to start.
The EU elections have always been taken frivolously and it is well known that the LibDems flatter to deceive at Local Elections. Both have turnouts well under 40% . Moreover, this is a seat where Labour has consistently - even in 2010 - been the main challenger.
While that's so, and no one should underestimate the resilience of Labour's core vote, especially among black voters and Muslim voters, change does seem to be in the air.
Most people won't understand the minutiae of why it would or wouldn't work they will just see that it is Swinson that is leading the charge against BoJo while Jezza seems frit.
As @HYUFD has noted, she is looking more like leader of the opposition than Corbyn.
She looked immature on Newsnight when the interviewer asked her why she was offering to work with Corbyn on a VONC when she'd just said she wouldn't work with him in Government. Easy enough question to handle, but she nervously gabbled instead of replying calmly. It's early days and she'll learn, if there's time, but is there?
Swinson could do with some Thatcher-style voice training, go slower and lower - she tends to gabble a bit and come across a bit shrill from what I've seen of her.
Wait until you see her under pressure. Shrill doesn’t even begin to cover it.
So far, she’s had it easy peasy lemon squeezy. Virtually handed the LD leadership on a silver plate. Her sense of entitlement and her talent for faux dismay are going to make for many unpleasant moments for her minders.
Most people won't understand the minutiae of why it would or wouldn't work they will just see that it is Swinson that is leading the charge against BoJo while Jezza seems frit.
As @HYUFD has noted, she is looking more like leader of the opposition than Corbyn.
She looked immature on Newsnight when the interviewer asked her why she was offering to work with Corbyn on a VONC when she'd just said she wouldn't work with him in Government. Easy enough question to handle, but she nervously gabbled instead of replying calmly. It's early days and she'll learn, if there's time, but is there?
IF Labour voters get behind the LibDems in Mogg's seat, there is every chance.
That would make no sense - Labour last polled 18,757 to the LDs 4,461.
Yes but therein lies the issue. Look at the EU election results and the locals. The 2017 results are so far from recent polls that they are the worst place to start.
The EU elections have always been taken frivolously and it is well known that the LibDems flatter to deceive at Local Elections. Both have turnouts well under 40% . Moreover, this is a seat where Labour has consistently - even in 2010 - been the main challenger.
With respect you do know there has been an earthquake in politics ripping up past history
Sadly for labour they are caught in a pincer movement between the Conservatives and Lib Dems who are now the respected party for those who want to remain
Why is Labour ahead with Survation, Comres, and Opinium ? On the basis of those findings , a voter would have to be pretty psephologically illiterate to suggest that Labour voters should tactically support the LDs there - though such advice would delight JRM. We had many polls at the 2010 GE putiing the LDs in first place nationally with over 30% vote shares , and we know how that turned out a few days later - ie the LDs actually LOST seats! LD support is very soft - 'easy come - easy go'.
Most people won't understand the minutiae of why it would or wouldn't work they will just see that it is Swinson that is leading the charge against BoJo while Jezza seems frit.
As @HYUFD has noted, she is looking more like leader of the opposition than Corbyn.
She looked immature on Newsnight when the interviewer asked her why she was offering to work with Corbyn on a VONC when she'd just said she wouldn't work with him in Government. Easy enough question to handle, but she nervously gabbled instead of replying calmly. It's early days and she'll learn, if there's time, but is there?
Didn't see it. And I'm not convinced you are the impartial observer I would want an account from, Nick.
It is on iplayer. Since, as NP says, and is self-evident, Swinson will get better with practice, I'm not sure how much it matters in the long term. In the short term, there is the Brecon & Radnor by-election but not much else.
A bigger problem for Swinson, as it was for Cable and Farron, is that the LibDems are no longer our third party (the SNP has more seats and DUP more influence) so they are no longer needed for balance on news and current affairs programmes; nor are they guaranteed a question at PMQs.
IF Labour voters get behind the LibDems in Mogg's seat, there is every chance.
That would make no sense - Labour last polled 18,757 to the LDs 4,461.
Yes but therein lies the issue. Look at the EU election results and the locals. The 2017 results are so far from recent polls that they are the worst place to start.
The EU elections have always been taken frivolously and it is well known that the LibDems flatter to deceive at Local Elections. Both have turnouts well under 40% . Moreover, this is a seat where Labour has consistently - even in 2010 - been the main challenger.
With respect you do know there has been an earthquake in politics ripping up past history
Sadly for labour they are caught in a pincer movement between the Conservatives and Lib Dems who are now the respected party for those who want to remain
Why is Labour ahead with Survation, Comres, and Opinium ? On the basis of those findings , a voter would have to be pretty psephologically illiterate to suggest that Labour voters should tactically support the LDs there - though such advice would delight JRM. We had many polls at the 2010 GE putiing the LDs in first place nationally with over 30% vote shares , and we know how that turned out a few days later - ie the LDs actually LOST seats! LD support is very soft - 'easy come - easy go'.
Most people won't understand the minutiae of why it would or wouldn't work they will just see that it is Swinson that is leading the charge against BoJo while Jezza seems frit.
As @HYUFD has noted, she is looking more like leader of the opposition than Corbyn.
She looked immature on Newsnight when the interviewer asked her why she was offering to work with Corbyn on a VONC when she'd just said she wouldn't work with him in Government. Easy enough question to handle, but she nervously gabbled instead of replying calmly. It's early days and she'll learn, if there's time, but is there?
Didn't see it. And I'm not convinced you are the impartial observer I would want an account from, Nick.
It is on iplayer. Since, as NP says, and is self-evident, Swinson will get better with practice, I'm not sure how much it matters in the long term. In the short term, there is the Brecon & Radnor by-election but not much else.
A bigger problem for Swinson, as it was for Cable and Farron, is that the LibDems are no longer our third party (the SNP has more seats and DUP more influence) so they are no longer needed for balance on news and current affairs programmes; nor are they guaranteed a question at PMQs.
That was then. This is now. We are in different times. No reason the LibDems can't put on a shedload of votes. The polls suggest it is not an impossible ask.
Comments
Perhaps you see 12 years running the country and likely to be at least same again minimum as being "spectacular failures", but hard to justify even with your fevered imagination.
OR
https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1154326529012326400
The bit of thinking that is wrong is the appeal of Farage on Labour voters. Just because someone is working class doesn’t mean their instincts are Labour voter, so up north and all over Farage is already reaching to the perverted, the Alf Garnett Army. It is Boris the Britain Trump who voters will think puts his own first with BJFBW and B(housing)FBW who stands better chance of gaining traditional Labour votes. But Boris needs to deliver brexit first to get most the Alf garnett army back, hence no election this side of brexit.
So comparing Tory figure in one poll to LD and Lab in other polls? That is not flawed?
Swings and seat gains absolutely correct? No consideration that the huge changes that have happened might make uniform swing absolutely useless. Look at Scotland and compare now to a few decades ago.
Absolutely correct? Why bother with an election? Why don't we come to you for the result?
Opinions - great
Opinions backed by data and logic - even better
But you state stuff as fact when it never is and is often very flawed.
https://twitter.com/garynaylor999/status/1154328857291427840
I feel in no way "betrayed".
Would a strong feminist with an anti male bias do a good job?
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1154325476871168001?s=20
You could argue that Remain have more of a problem as their base is much younger and the young are far less likely to vote in GEs. Having said that, polling suggests that Remainers are slightly more committed to their cause than Leave, and I think turnout for the next GE is going to be high, even >80%?
The answer, of course, being that JC doesn’t want an election before Brexit.
Now, it is true of course that on the other side Labour's vote looks much diminished compared with 2017, which might mean that Boris could get a majority if he can retain Theresa May's share of the Brexit extremists vote, and not lose too many votes to the LibDems, and hope that enough (but not too many) votes seep away from Labour to the LibDems, especially in Con/Lab marginals. But it's a fairly narrow path, with lots of risks, and with the additional problem that he seems determined to reverse the progress Ruth Davidson had made in Scotland. It relies also on Farage playing ball, and is further complicated by tactical voting.
As at today, I'd say that the most likely outcome of a pre-October 31st election would be a hung parliament, which in itself is a massive risk for the country because we could be without a government in the lead up to crash-out date. If there's an election after October 31st, that's a whole different range of scenarios. One thing at a time!
The idea that a failed VONC “bolsters Boris” is being too clever by half. This is not test cricket, it is 20/20. There are just 98 days until October 31.
A VONC has every justification since Boris and his platform have no actual mandate, his Cabinet is full of more crooks than Belmarsh prison, and the Home Sec wants to bring back hanging.
More likely is that the hardliners realise they can't get a hard Brexit through Parliament, so they either accept a softer Brexit - which they haven't shown much sign of hitherto - or Johnson seeks a mandate for a hard Brexit, which with FPTP in a 4-party system he might just get.
Anti-Tory tactical voting could be a complete mess at the next election, particularly as there will be so many people not interested in it working, but simply to support their existing choice of party.
YouTube is now huge competition to all traditional tv channels, as da kids happily watch it for hours on end (including the ads).
But here’s the kicker: he’s safe as houses in the job, whereas if Ed Milliband was as bad as this Len and the unions will have placed his head on a spike by now! That is the truth that makes Corbyn toxic isn’t it? It’s not the anti semitism hollowing him out, its the fact Len and the unions are keeping something in post that is so shit (to use baldricks phrase) it really shouldn’t be there.
Thanks for your reply yesterday! I was on my phone and I can't respond from it. Just to say I wasn't challenging the reasoning behind your resignation from the Conservative Party. You'll be a sad loss.
I'm eternally optimistic and I honestly think you'll have reason to be back, sooner rather than later.
This was a Leave country ruled by Remainer politicians, proof of the chasm that now separates elite opinion from public opinion. The new Cabinet goes some way to rectifying that. Now let’s leave. Properly, fully, with no turning back. Out, out, out.
https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/07/25/at-last-the-country-is-run-by-leavers/
In 2017 a large enough section of the electorate recoiled from the prospect of a landslide majority for May, and had a clear enough idea of what to do to prevent it, that the pre-campaign opinion polls were worthless.
What is the political impact of a potential majority for a more extreme government? Is the section of the electorate appalled by that prospect able to choose which of Swinson or Corbyn to support to prevent it?
I see good reason to suspect that the later step will not happen. Only Swinson is capable of rallying the level of support necessary to prevent a majority for the hard-right, Corbyn is too tarnished. But I fear that there is sufficient inertia to keep the opposition split, not least due to broadcasting rules.
As the long Twitter thread cited above concludes; the is now Tory/BXP vs the rest.
The focus naturally enough is on Boris and his new Cabinet this week.
Swinson now needs to rise to the occasion.
She needs to be newsmaker, not a news-reacter - which will be hard given that Boris’s every fart will be reported on by a demoralised and degraded media.
Soon tv is going to be an OAP wasteland, like landlines. Nobody of working age will be arsed.
It's congratulations because you had the courage of your convictions; commisserations because I understand how difficult and painful the process must have been.
Like Fenster, I hope you will have reason to rejoin one day because that would suggest the Party has rediscovered its reason. Good luck until then, and I do hope you will continue to make your highly regarded contributions to this august forum.
Regards, and all that. PtP
Sadly for labour they are caught in a pincer movement between the Conservatives and Lib Dems who are now the respected party for those who want to remain
Public broadcasting has followed suit, demoralised in this country after the Gillian Affair.
Perhaps eventually a new model will emerge, but net impact today is “fake news” and corrodes our democracy.
(Insert joke here about watching us getting hammered by the Irish, just as for the last two years).
Still, whilst that is all entirely predictable, Corbyn didn't have to dig a trap for himself by taking part in a meaningless demonstration calling for what he himself is refusing to do.
Meanwhile, Corbyn actually has a quasi-constitutional position (because there's an assumption that a full-fat VONC motion from the Leader of the Opposition will get time). In any case, it's all baked-in that he's a rabble rouser who'll take it to the man. And as others have said, he'd lose on day one before BJ pisses people off with specifics. So he probably wins by keeping a cool head and playing the longer game.
Scots have known how useless she is for over a decade. You lot are in for a short, sharp learning curve.
https://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/05844a50-a0d9-4d16-bd19-e9e3df717acb
However - come that election there will be many seats where due to tribal factors Labour will be the only non Con/BP party in with a chance. And that chance could well be that little bit higher if their Brexit position is seen as Ref2 but short of full throttle Remain.
Lib Dems should vote Labour in those seats. And I think many will. Likewise Labourites should vote Lib Dem where THEY are in the better position. Again I think many will.
The net impact of all this could - and I hope will - do for Johnson.
She has neither the brains nor the energy to quickly adapt her toolbox.
I'd rather we left the EU with a deal than without one, but it's not a resigning issue for me.
So far, she’s had it easy peasy lemon squeezy. Virtually handed the LD leadership on a silver plate. Her sense of entitlement and her talent for faux dismay are going to make for many unpleasant moments for her minders.
Jack Leach is in danger of becoming England's highest averaging opener since Alastair Cook at this rate. (Daniel Norcross)
Clear fear in labour
A bigger problem for Swinson, as it was for Cable and Farron, is that the LibDems are no longer our third party (the SNP has more seats and DUP more influence) so they are no longer needed for balance on news and current affairs programmes; nor are they guaranteed a question at PMQs.
The sad thing is that it May had done half of this 3 years ago we would have left in March with a deal
https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/geschaeftsklimaindex-des-ifo-instituts-wirtschaft-16301781.html