Options
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PM Johnson’s first front pages after the day when he was most

Team Boris will be very pleased with the way the papers are treating his arrival at number 10 and and his new cabinet. They reflect that he has made a massive impact.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.
Y'day Farage on his LBC show was emollient and complementary about Johnson's speech.
I do think that labour are in a very bad place and are reaping the consequences of prevaricating over a referendum and anti semitism.
I expect to see labour slide to third place regularly in the polls.
Sky data poll shows best pm Boris 41% Corbyn 22%
Just maybe we are over-analysing, with all the speculation about what grand strategy for Brexit these appointments are part of, and what it means for a GE?
We know that for years Bozo has sat in parliament surrounded by a clear majority of his own side disliking him and (allegedly) prepared to keep him off the ballot paper.
Maybe he just worked out who they all are?
Almost nothing will be 'hard' enough to satisfy BP, but if that does happen then the responsibility (and, bare minimum, that means significant short term disruption exacerbated by lack of planning) falls squarely on the Conservatives.
Lib Dems still looking good but they need to recognise and capitalise on the fact that this set of extremely favourable circumstances may never again recur. Their objective has got to be to supplant Labour, become the major party of the left, and defeat the Conservatives.
Very big ask. But not incredible.
In the other direction I reluctantly took out the new Registered Supporter status with the Liberal Democrats yesterday. I left the party in 2012 and had no plans to return. But like many people from all Brexit perspectives I felt the need to do something as we hurtle to tge bottom of the cliff. One of the many bizarre side effects of the Corbyn virus and the emasculation sane conservatism is the entirely undeserved resurrection of the Liberal Democrats. But we are where are. It's a funny old world as a previous Conservative PM destroyed by Europe once observed.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1153635730926780416?s=20
Trying for no deal via prorogation looks most viable to me.
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2019/jul/24/young-people-uk-abandon-tv-news-almost-entirely-ofcom
https://twitter.com/mariusostrowski/status/1153624258481926145
A plan for an autumn election?
A plan to crash out with no deal?
A plan to be the last Conservative and Unionist PM of the UK in history?
A plan to humiliate Tory MPs who weren't nice to him?
None of it changes his unsuitability for the position of Prime Minister, and at some point he will be brutally exposed.
Completely off topic - the reports about Johnson moving in to the "4 bed flat" above no11 (which only started being PM home because Blair had children and Brown didn't), with Javid (+ wife and 4 kids) moving into "2 bed flat" above no10.
I think it's reasonable to speculate that either no10 is not actually a "2 bed flat" or the latter isn't happening!
Of course by being so blatant, it will peel off a few more votes to the Lib Dems, but once again the simplistic analysis that a split vote left of centre presents ab opportunity to the Tories seems about right. Even if the picture will be more complicated in reality.
Who is there in this cabinet who is loyal enough to quietly tell the PM that he's got it wrong, the other half of the party can't wear it? Where's the Willie to his Maggie, the Prescott to his Blair?
This isn't a government, it's a schoolboy clique. That's weak.
But amidst all the detail her figurework applies the same assumptions nationally, whereas even her own conclusion recognises that it is how and where the vote shifts fall that will be decisive.
Farage could easily demand a co-operative approach to the election (ie Con standing aside in many seats to give him and others a clear run). If Boris agrees, he's a moron, if not, Farage et al. could run and claim they're going to stand up for leaving and keep Boris honest.
It's possible he could endorse the blonde fool, but not certain.
https://twitter.com/KayBurley/status/1154282223102828544
I've looked at two scenarios:
A ) Tories gain 5% from BXP and lose 5% to LDs
B ) Tories gain 10% from BXP and lose 5% to LDs
Using the EMA as a base and Electoral Calculus it gives for Con, Lab, LD and BXP:
Base 220, 240, 61, 55
Case A 295, 216, 65, 0
Case B 355, 175, 47, 0
The Tories gain far more seats from attracting BXP voters than they lose to the LDs from defecting Tories.
I assume the Tories have done a similar calculation so the game plan I assume is to emulate the BXP, suffer loses to the LDs and gain an overall majority in a snap election.
If, additionally, LDs gain 5% from Lab then the seats are
Case B plus 5% from Lab 372, 122, 83, 0
The Tories get an even bigger majority. The resurgence of the LDs is a big opportunity for the Tories. It would be in their interests to actually encourage it. The only counter is a very smart tactical voting strategy from the anti-Tory parties.
He clearly doesn't buy his friend HY's prediction.
Don't get me wrong, I'm glad Grayling's gone, but he's clearly pro-leave and a supporter of Boris, so that's a little peculiar.
He is interested in money. What he really wants is to be super-wealthy.
I think there are many ways Shagger can buy him off.
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1154286149839544320
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1154287073895038976
Selfish, I know, but I'd prefer to have Farage a few thousand miles away.
tbh I thought Olly's conclusion the other day that he wouldn't support his moderate Labour MP because it might be interpreted as support for Cornyn was odd - it's obvious there isn't going to be a majority for hard left policies, and unlikely to be one for Labour, so I'd have thought that stopping No Deal - a very real possibility - would take priority. But these are strange times, and I'm not sure most people otgher than the diminishing band of partisans like me now really know how they'll vote.
But it will only matter if they are there for the long haul and that means him winning an election soon. I doubt that but it is hard - a good result in Brecon would be encouraging for him but it's down to if he delivers brexit, or more likely if he is not blamed if parliament stops us leaving. If neither happens even a win in Brecon would mean little .
I know, I know. UNS is bollocks.
https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1154279802918096897
It's quite clear that voters wanting to stop Boris are going to have a choice to make. And Corbyn has self-imposed a ceiling on Labour by his 'leadership'.