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Team Boris will be very pleased with the way the papers are treating his arrival at number 10 and and his new cabinet. They reflect that he has made a massive impact.

Read the full story here

AlastairMeeks

Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?

I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.

IanB2

Second, like BXP in B&R

Mortimer

Third, like Gove!

geoffw

and how will the Brexit Party itself react?
Y'day Farage on his LBC show was emollient and complementary about Johnson's speech.

Big_G_NorthWales

AlastairMeeks said:

Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?

I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.

I think you may well be correct.

I do think that labour are in a very bad place and are reaping the consequences of prevaricating over a referendum and anti semitism.

I expect to see labour slide to third place regularly in the polls.

Sky data poll shows best pm Boris 41% Corbyn 22%

IanB2

Various FPT:

Just maybe we are over-analysing, with all the speculation about what grand strategy for Brexit these appointments are part of, and what it means for a GE?

We know that for years Bozo has sat in parliament surrounded by a clear majority of his own side disliking him and (allegedly) prepared to keep him off the ballot paper.

Maybe he just worked out who they all are?

OldKingCole

I wonder what's going to happen with junior, sub-Cabinet posts. Who, for example, will replace Sir Alan Duncan?

SouthamObserver

AlastairMeeks said:

Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?

I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.

Yep, it’s clear the Cabinet has been designed to woo BXP voters in anticipation of an autumn election. How can Farage not endorse what Johnson has done? The former Conservative and Unionist Party is now indistinguishable from BXP. I suspect this will be a successful tactic. Tories will depart for the LibDems, but many more will stay because they fear Corbyn. A united right against a split opposition should win handily. The only spanner in the works is that Johnson has been so extreme, non-Tory voters might think very carefully about how they cast their votes tactically to keep the BXP from power.

AlastairMeeks

IanB2 said:

Various FPT:

Just maybe we are over-analysing, with all the speculation about what grand strategy for Brexit these appointments are part of, and what it means for a GE?

We know that for years Bozo has sat in parliament surrounded by a clear majority of his own side disliking him and (allegedly) prepared to keep him off the ballot paper.

Maybe he just worked out who they all are?

He’s not stupid and he’ll have a plan. Whether it’s workable is another matter.

eek

AlastairMeeks said:

Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?

I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.

I expect a very short term boost for the tories at the expense of permanent loses to the Lib Dems

MaxPB

AlastairMeeks said:

IanB2 said:

Various FPT:

Just maybe we are over-analysing, with all the speculation about what grand strategy for Brexit these appointments are part of, and what it means for a GE?

We know that for years Bozo has sat in parliament surrounded by a clear majority of his own side disliking him and (allegedly) prepared to keep him off the ballot paper.

Maybe he just worked out who they all are?

He’s not stupid and he’ll have a plan. Whether it’s workable is another matter.

What if it's a stupid plan?

Sandpit

geoffw said:

and how will the Brexit Party itself react?
Y'day Farage on his LBC show was emollient and complementary about Johnson's speech.

I’d imagine Farage will now lie low for a bit, waiting to see if Johnson is going to keep to his word about leaving on 31st October.

williamglenn

AlastairMeeks said:

Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?

If Johnson doesn’t go for an election soon, look out for splits between him and the ERG.

Casino_Royale

AlastairMeeks said:

Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?

I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.

+1

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Observer, I'm not so sure.

Almost nothing will be 'hard' enough to satisfy BP, but if that does happen then the responsibility (and, bare minimum, that means significant short term disruption exacerbated by lack of planning) falls squarely on the Conservatives.

Lib Dems still looking good but they need to recognise and capitalise on the fact that this set of extremely favourable circumstances may never again recur. Their objective has got to be to supplant Labour, become the major party of the left, and defeat the Conservatives.

Very big ask. But not incredible.

Big_G_NorthWales

eek said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?

I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.

I expect a very short term boost for the tories at the expense of permanent loses to the Lib Dems

I think the polarisation to the conservatives and lib dems will gather pace with labour losing out to both

YellowSubmarine

My warmest regards to Richard Nabavi. I read his sombre and dignified piece yesterday on quitting the Conservatives. As I know from my own experience that sort of thing is hard to do. That we've got to the point where proper Conservatives like Richard , rightly in my view , feel they need to leave is both astonishing and the new normal.

In the other direction I reluctantly took out the new Registered Supporter status with the Liberal Democrats yesterday. I left the party in 2012 and had no plans to return. But like many people from all Brexit perspectives I felt the need to do something as we hurtle to tge bottom of the cliff. One of the many bizarre side effects of the Corbyn virus and the emasculation sane conservatism is the entirely undeserved resurrection of the Liberal Democrats. But we are where are. It's a funny old world as a previous Conservative PM destroyed by Europe once observed.

CarlottaVance

AlastairMeeks said:

Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?

I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.

The LibDems could be as big a threat (or bigger, given they know how to fight parliamentary elections at scale):

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1153635730926780416?s=20

AlastairMeeks

MaxPB said:

AlastairMeeks said:

IanB2 said:

Various FPT:

Just maybe we are over-analysing, with all the speculation about what grand strategy for Brexit these appointments are part of, and what it means for a GE?

We know that for years Bozo has sat in parliament surrounded by a clear majority of his own side disliking him and (allegedly) prepared to keep him off the ballot paper.

Maybe he just worked out who they all are?

He’s not stupid and he’ll have a plan. Whether it’s workable is another matter.

What if it's a stupid plan?

None of his options look good now. My assessment is that all his options are odds against and some are unworkable. I doubt his plan will be stupid but it will inevitably be risky.

Trying for no deal via prorogation looks most viable to me.

Nigelb

Young people in UK abandon TV news 'almost entirely'
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2019/jul/24/young-people-uk-abandon-tv-news-almost-entirely-ofcom

edmundintokyo

Amazing thread charting the possible paths of the clown car that is FPTP:

https://twitter.com/mariusostrowski/status/1153624258481926145

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/rowlsmanthorpe/status/1154153775541751810?s=21

Big_G_NorthWales

williamglenn said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?

If Johnson doesn’t go for an election soon, look out for splits between him and the ERG.

He excluded and sidelined the 'spartans' but the leader of the ERG is now leader of the house, so I do not see much of a problem if Boris and his cabinet put a new or amended deal to the HOC. Also do not discount the 40 or so labour mps who will vote to leave

Scott_P

AlastairMeeks said:

He’s not stupid and he’ll have a plan. Whether it’s workable is another matter.

A plan for what though?

A plan for an autumn election?

A plan to crash out with no deal?

A plan to be the last Conservative and Unionist PM of the UK in history?

A plan to humiliate Tory MPs who weren't nice to him?

JackW

OldKingCole said:

I wonder what's going to happen with junior, sub-Cabinet posts. Who, for example, will replace Sir Alan Duncan?

Larry the Cat OUT !!!!!! ..... Apparently this particular pussy wasn't to Boris's taste and refused point blank clean out his own cat litter, a job that Chris Grayling had almost mastered after three years in May's cabinet.

alex.

Johnson could have the best plan in the world. It might even achieve its aim (if its aim is restricted to leaving the EU on 31 October come what may).

None of it changes his unsuitability for the position of Prime Minister, and at some point he will be brutally exposed.

Completely off topic - the reports about Johnson moving in to the "4 bed flat" above no11 (which only started being PM home because Blair had children and Brown didn't), with Javid (+ wife and 4 kids) moving into "2 bed flat" above no10.

I think it's reasonable to speculate that either no10 is not actually a "2 bed flat" or the latter isn't happening!

felix

My issue with the LDs is they are in many ways almost as left wing as Labour. Their Brexit stance has been consistent but worryingly anti- democratic. I'm hoping with little confidence that Boris will get a fudged deal - it would be very consistent with past EU practice. Until then - keep calm and enjoy the Spanish summer - cooler than the UK today but around 3/4 months longer.

alex.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

williamglenn said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?

If Johnson doesn’t go for an election soon, look out for splits between him and the ERG.

He excluded and sidelined the 'spartans' but the leader of the ERG is now leader of the house, so I do not see much of a problem if Boris and his cabinet put a new or amended deal to the HOC. Also do not discount the 40 or so labour mps who will vote to leave

JRM is Leader of the House simply because he will have no compunction for doing whatever is necessary in parliamentary terms to ensure departure without a deal. He's not there to steer a compromise through the HoC.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1154277648694239232

Sandpit

AlastairMeeks said:

MaxPB said:

AlastairMeeks said:

IanB2 said:

Various FPT:

Just maybe we are over-analysing, with all the speculation about what grand strategy for Brexit these appointments are part of, and what it means for a GE?

We know that for years Bozo has sat in parliament surrounded by a clear majority of his own side disliking him and (allegedly) prepared to keep him off the ballot paper.

Maybe he just worked out who they all are?

He’s not stupid and he’ll have a plan. Whether it’s workable is another matter.

What if it's a stupid plan?

None of his options look good now. My assessment is that all his options are odds against and some are unworkable. I doubt his plan will be stupid but it will inevitably be risky.

Trying for no deal via prorogation looks most viable to me.

I think his first plan is to try and get some movement on the Withdrawal Agreement from the EU, making it clear that the alternative is no deal. If that doesn’t work, then it’s either no deal or an election.

Nigelb

edmundintokyo said:

Amazing thread charting the possible paths of the clown car that is FPTP:

https://twitter.com/mariusostrowski/status/1153624258481926145

Which illustrates perfectly the motivation behind Johnson’s strategy, and strongly implies his going for an election soon.

Of course by being so blatant, it will peel off a few more votes to the Lib Dems, but once again the simplistic analysis that a split vote left of centre presents ab opportunity to the Tories seems about right. Even if the picture will be more complicated in reality.

Stuartinromford

FPT:

Endillion said:

Roger said:

Endillion said:

Regardless of the calibre of the appointees, this reshuffle has gone a hell of a lot smoother than May's pathetic last attempt.

You could stand outside Wormwood Scrubbs and have a Cabinet in five minutes. It's all about the calibre of the appointees.

May couldn't (or at least didn't). And got deservedly criticised for looking weak. No one thinks Johnson looks weak.

I think he looks incredibly weak.
Who is there in this cabinet who is loyal enough to quietly tell the PM that he's got it wrong, the other half of the party can't wear it? Where's the Willie to his Maggie, the Prescott to his Blair?
This isn't a government, it's a schoolboy clique. That's weak.

AlastairMeeks

Sandpit said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MaxPB said:

AlastairMeeks said:

IanB2 said:

Various FPT:

Just maybe we are over-analysing, with all the speculation about what grand strategy for Brexit these appointments are part of, and what it means for a GE?

We know that for years Bozo has sat in parliament surrounded by a clear majority of his own side disliking him and (allegedly) prepared to keep him off the ballot paper.

Maybe he just worked out who they all are?

He’s not stupid and he’ll have a plan. Whether it’s workable is another matter.

What if it's a stupid plan?

None of his options look good now. My assessment is that all his options are odds against and some are unworkable. I doubt his plan will be stupid but it will inevitably be risky.

Trying for no deal via prorogation looks most viable to me.

I think his first plan is to try and get some movement on the Withdrawal Agreement from the EU, making it clear that the alternative is no deal. If that doesn’t work, then it’s either no deal or an election.

That’s a preliminary shadow dance. The EU is practically unable to move even if there were forces that wanted to (there aren’t). No one has authority to negotiate and everything is in limbo with the change of administrations.

alex.

AlastairMeeks said:

MaxPB said:

AlastairMeeks said:

IanB2 said:

Various FPT:

Just maybe we are over-analysing, with all the speculation about what grand strategy for Brexit these appointments are part of, and what it means for a GE?

We know that for years Bozo has sat in parliament surrounded by a clear majority of his own side disliking him and (allegedly) prepared to keep him off the ballot paper.

Maybe he just worked out who they all are?

He’s not stupid and he’ll have a plan. Whether it’s workable is another matter.

What if it's a stupid plan?

None of his options look good now. My assessment is that all his options are odds against and some are unworkable. I doubt his plan will be stupid but it will inevitably be risky.

Trying for no deal via prorogation looks most viable to me.

Personally not really convinced by the arguments that he needs prorogation to deliver no deal. Depends whether he listens to legal advice of the Attorney General.

SouthamObserver

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Observer, I'm not so sure.

Almost nothing will be 'hard' enough to satisfy BP, but if that does happen then the responsibility (and, bare minimum, that means significant short term disruption exacerbated by lack of planning) falls squarely on the Conservatives.

Lib Dems still looking good but they need to recognise and capitalise on the fact that this set of extremely favourable circumstances may never again recur. Their objective has got to be to supplant Labour, become the major party of the left, and defeat the Conservatives.

Very big ask. But not incredible.

If there’s an early election - which there almost certainly will be - I don’t see how Farage avoids endorsing the former Conservative and Unionist Party. The betrayal will come later. It’s a card he can play at any point.

Foxy

AlastairMeeks said:

Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?

I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.

Boris is chasing part of the BXP demographic, the part that is financially secure, older and in the shires. I don't think that there ismuch appeal to the WWC part of the BXP.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. P, surely Labour is present, but not involved?

alex.

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?

I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.

The LibDems could be as big a threat (or bigger, given they know how to fight parliamentary elections at scale):

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1153635730926780416?s=20

I think in some ways he will be actually relying to some extent on the LibDem threat in Remainia. As long as the bits of remainia we are talking about are Con-Lab marginals. There could be some interesting 3 way battles in London in particular. They may be in a better situation to win seats there than they were in 2017.

Sandpit

edmundintokyo said:

Amazing thread charting the possible paths of the clown car that is FPTP:

https://twitter.com/mariusostrowski/status/1153624258481926145

That thread is a very long-winded way of saying that absolutely anything can happen if we get an election before Brexit.

felix

SouthamObserver said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Observer, I'm not so sure.

Almost nothing will be 'hard' enough to satisfy BP, but if that does happen then the responsibility (and, bare minimum, that means significant short term disruption exacerbated by lack of planning) falls squarely on the Conservatives.

Lib Dems still looking good but they need to recognise and capitalise on the fact that this set of extremely favourable circumstances may never again recur. Their objective has got to be to supplant Labour, become the major party of the left, and defeat the Conservatives.

Very big ask. But not incredible.

If there’s an early election - which there almost certainly will be - I don’t see how Farage avoids endorsing the former Conservative and Unionist Party. The betrayal will come later. It’s a card he can play at any point.

I suppose the one other good thing about yesterday is that hopefully the long limbo will soon end. The country needs clarity - Even if that clarity is somewhat crap.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/RevRichardColes/status/1154144258774982657

Theuniondivvie

IanB2 said:

Various FPT:

Just maybe we are over-analysing, with all the speculation about what grand strategy for Brexit these appointments are part of, and what it means for a GE?

We know that for years Bozo has sat in parliament surrounded by a clear majority of his own side disliking him and (allegedly) prepared to keep him off the ballot paper.

Maybe he just worked out who they all are?

It's certainly a possibility; shades of the speculation about Trump's Satanically ingenious strategies when the most likely explanation is that his actions are the expression of his self regarding viciousness with a slice of dumb luck. We've yet to see if BJ is a lucky general of course.

CarlottaVance

alex. said:

Johnson could have the best plan in the world. It might even achieve its aim (if its aim is restricted to leaving the EU on 31 October come what may).

None of it changes his unsuitability for the position of Prime Minister, and at some point he will be brutally exposed.

Completely off topic - the reports about Johnson moving in to the "4 bed flat" above no11 (which only started being PM home because Blair had children and Brown didn't), with Javid (+ wife and 4 kids) moving into "2 bed flat" above no10.

I think it's reasonable to speculate that either no10 is not actually a "2 bed flat" or the latter isn't happening!

The Sun says Javid will stay in his family home in Fulham - apparently Johnson’s grown children will be moving in too, so there may be need there. May occupied the larger flat even though it was only her & Philip.

Foxy

AlastairMeeks said:

Sandpit said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MaxPB said:

AlastairMeeks said:

IanB2 said:

Various FPT:

Just maybe we are over-analysing, with all the speculation about what grand strategy for Brexit these appointments are part of, and what it means for a GE?

We know that for years Bozo has sat in parliament surrounded by a clear majority of his own side disliking him and (allegedly) prepared to keep him off the ballot paper.

Maybe he just worked out who they all are?

He’s not stupid and he’ll have a plan. Whether it’s workable is another matter.

What if it's a stupid plan?

None of his options look good now. My assessment is that all his options are odds against and some are unworkable. I doubt his plan will be stupid but it will inevitably be risky.

Trying for no deal via prorogation looks most viable to me.

I think his first plan is to try and get some movement on the Withdrawal Agreement from the EU, making it clear that the alternative is no deal. If that doesn’t work, then it’s either no deal or an election.

That’s a preliminary shadow dance. The EU is practically unable to move even if there were forces that wanted to (there aren’t). No one has authority to negotiate and everything is in limbo with the change of administrations.

There will be no renegotiation, but I think Boris aims for No Deal. Anything else destroys his base with the swivel eyed. If he pushes for No Deal and parliament stops him he gets the sheen of martyrdom, without having the consequences of having to sort out the mess.

IanB2

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?

I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.

The LibDems could be as big a threat (or bigger, given they know how to fight parliamentary elections at scale):

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1153635730926780416?s=20

And a vivid graphical depiction of why UNS models don’t apply to a third party recovering from its 2015/17 drubbing.

ToryJim

I think Boris will regret the course he has plotted, he has not even paid lip service to uniting the party. He is simply demanding unity on his terms. I'm not sure he will be able to build a majority in Parliament for his approach and don't think he will be able to win a majority in the country for it either. He and his defenders can make all the claims to being modern, progressive and socially liberal in outlook but when you've whacked JRM and Priti in your top team that's a tough sell. I'm not sure this is a government I as a moderate Tory can or ought to support.

Barnesian

I find it curious that in spite of all that happened in the last seven days, the odds on a No Deal in 2019 have remained around 30% on Betfair. Sterling has actually strengthened a bit in the last couple of days indicating a reduced chance of No Deal.

SouthamObserver

Foxy said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?

I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.

Boris is chasing part of the BXP demographic, the part that is financially secure, older and in the shires. I don't think that there ismuch appeal to the WWC part of the BXP.

Not long-term - but for one election framed as the one to get England out of the EU there will be. The betrayals come after that. Johnson has to go to the country before Brexit for this reason.

AlastairMeeks

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?

I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.

The LibDems could be as big a threat (or bigger, given they know how to fight parliamentary elections at scale):

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1153635730926780416?s=20

With Labour so weak, the Lib Dems are much closer to a breakthrough than they have ever been. In 2010 they were polling better but so were Labour. This capped their possible successes. It would take really only quite a small bump in the polls for the Lib Dems to be clearly second. At that point herd dynamics would look very different.

alex.

CarlottaVance said:

alex. said:

Johnson could have the best plan in the world. It might even achieve its aim (if its aim is restricted to leaving the EU on 31 October come what may).

None of it changes his unsuitability for the position of Prime Minister, and at some point he will be brutally exposed.

Completely off topic - the reports about Johnson moving in to the "4 bed flat" above no11 (which only started being PM home because Blair had children and Brown didn't), with Javid (+ wife and 4 kids) moving into "2 bed flat" above no10.

I think it's reasonable to speculate that either no10 is not actually a "2 bed flat" or the latter isn't happening!

The Sun says Javid will stay in his family home in Fulham - apparently Johnson’s grown children will be moving in too, so there may be need there

Loss of Telegraph money means he can't pay the child support?

OldKingCole

CarlottaVance said:

alex. said:

Johnson could have the best plan in the world. It might even achieve its aim (if its aim is restricted to leaving the EU on 31 October come what may).

None of it changes his unsuitability for the position of Prime Minister, and at some point he will be brutally exposed.

Completely off topic - the reports about Johnson moving in to the "4 bed flat" above no11 (which only started being PM home because Blair had children and Brown didn't), with Javid (+ wife and 4 kids) moving into "2 bed flat" above no10.

I think it's reasonable to speculate that either no10 is not actually a "2 bed flat" or the latter isn't happening!

The Sun says Javid will stay in his family home in Fulham - apparently Johnson’s grown children will be moving in too, so there may be need there. May occupied the larger flat even though it was only her & Philip.

Dosn'r Johnson's grown children moving in with him prsdnt something of a security risk? Surely there shouldn't be too many people unconnected with government coming and going?

felix

Barnesian said:

I find it curious that in spite of all that happened in the last seven days, the odds on a No Deal in 2019 have remained around 30% on Betfair. Sterling has actually strengthened a bit in the last couple of days indicating a reduced chance of No Deal.

I wondered too but maybe the currency markets just want closure.

IanB2

edmundintokyo said:

Amazing thread charting the possible paths of the clown car that is FPTP:

https://twitter.com/mariusostrowski/status/1153624258481926145

But amidst all the detail her figurework applies the same assumptions nationally, whereas even her own conclusion recognises that it is how and where the vote shifts fall that will be decisive.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/BBCr4today/status/1154281126980128768

Sandpit

AlastairMeeks said:

Sandpit said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MaxPB said:

AlastairMeeks said:

IanB2 said:

Various FPT:

Just maybe we are over-analysing, with all the speculation about what grand strategy for Brexit these appointments are part of, and what it means for a GE?

We know that for years Bozo has sat in parliament surrounded by a clear majority of his own side disliking him and (allegedly) prepared to keep him off the ballot paper.

Maybe he just worked out who they all are?

He’s not stupid and he’ll have a plan. Whether it’s workable is another matter.

What if it's a stupid plan?

None of his options look good now. My assessment is that all his options are odds against and some are unworkable. I doubt his plan will be stupid but it will inevitably be risky.

Trying for no deal via prorogation looks most viable to me.

I think his first plan is to try and get some movement on the Withdrawal Agreement from the EU, making it clear that the alternative is no deal. If that doesn’t work, then it’s either no deal or an election.

That’s a preliminary shadow dance. The EU is practically unable to move even if there were forces that wanted to (there aren’t). No one has authority to negotiate and everything is in limbo with the change of administrations.

I agree that they don’t want to move, and it’s logistically difficult for them to do so now - but Boris has to at least ask formally and be rejected before he goes down the no-deal route.

alex.

SouthamObserver said:

Foxy said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?

I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.

Boris is chasing part of the BXP demographic, the part that is financially secure, older and in the shires. I don't think that there ismuch appeal to the WWC part of the BXP.

Not long-term - but for one election framed as the one to get England out of the EU there will be. The betrayals come after that. Johnson has to go to the country before Brexit for this reason.

An election pre-Brexit is much easier for the LibDems as well though. Post Brexit (whether as bad or not as bad as predicted) and everything goes out the window. Even with a bad Brexit there may be a feeling of "well we're out, let's try and get to work making the best of it". As opposed to another year of dithering over referendums to rejoin etc (by which time things may have begun to improve and Remain (OUT) may win anyway.

NickPalmer

SouthamObserver said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Observer, I'm not so sure.

If there’s an early election - which there almost certainly will be - I don’t see how Farage avoids endorsing the former Conservative and Unionist Party. The betrayal will come later. It’s a card he can play at any point.

I think you ascribe a degree of policy-focused logic to Farage which is misplaced. As I read him, he enjoys being a disruptive force in the limelight. He'll find a reason. Either:

* Brexit hasn't happened yet at the election, in which case it's a disgusting betryal, or

* a deal has been done, in which case it's a disgusting betrayal, or

* we've left without a deal amid chaos, in which case it's disgusting incompetence spoiling a wonderful idea.

The idea that he'll say "Oh, OK then, fair enough" and fold his tent is IMO for the birds.

Theuniondivvie

alex. said:

CarlottaVance said:

alex. said:

Johnson could have the best plan in the world. It might even achieve its aim (if its aim is restricted to leaving the EU on 31 October come what may).

None of it changes his unsuitability for the position of Prime Minister, and at some point he will be brutally exposed.

Completely off topic - the reports about Johnson moving in to the "4 bed flat" above no11 (which only started being PM home because Blair had children and Brown didn't), with Javid (+ wife and 4 kids) moving into "2 bed flat" above no10.

I think it's reasonable to speculate that either no10 is not actually a "2 bed flat" or the latter isn't happening!

The Sun says Javid will stay in his family home in Fulham - apparently Johnson’s grown children will be moving in too, so there may be need there

Loss of Telegraph money means he can't pay the child support?

Shocking indictment of patronage, nepotism and the old school tie if his grown children don't already have a cushy number.

logical_song

SouthamObserver said:

Foxy said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?

I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.

Boris is chasing part of the BXP demographic, the part that is financially secure, older and in the shires. I don't think that there ismuch appeal to the WWC part of the BXP.

Not long-term - but for one election framed as the one to get England out of the EU there will be. The betrayals come after that. Johnson has to go to the country before Brexit for this reason.

England? Not England & Wales or the United Kingdom?

DavidL

Everything of course turns on 31st October but Johnson’s strategy of winning back TBP voters whilst the left is split is reminiscent of Thatcher in the 80’s where the SDP/Labour split massively enhanced her majorities. At the moment Labour look to be in a very bad place and I expect the polling to continue its recent trend in that respect. Do the Lib Dem’s have the strength in depth to take full advantage? That I am less sure about.

Sandpit

CarlottaVance said:

alex. said:

Johnson could have the best plan in the world. It might even achieve its aim (if its aim is restricted to leaving the EU on 31 October come what may).

None of it changes his unsuitability for the position of Prime Minister, and at some point he will be brutally exposed.

Completely off topic - the reports about Johnson moving in to the "4 bed flat" above no11 (which only started being PM home because Blair had children and Brown didn't), with Javid (+ wife and 4 kids) moving into "2 bed flat" above no10.

I think it's reasonable to speculate that either no10 is not actually a "2 bed flat" or the latter isn't happening!

The Sun says Javid will stay in his family home in Fulham - apparently Johnson’s grown children will be moving in too, so there may be need there. May occupied the larger flat even though it was only her & Philip.

That will annoy the hell out of anyone who lives on the route between Fulham and Westminster!

IanB2

felix said:

Barnesian said:

I find it curious that in spite of all that happened in the last seven days, the odds on a No Deal in 2019 have remained around 30% on Betfair. Sterling has actually strengthened a bit in the last couple of days indicating a reduced chance of No Deal.

I wondered too but maybe the currency markets just want closure.

£/€ perked up against some poor EU economic data, but there has been little rise in £/$. We are still at a low in the currency markets and these aren’t likely to improve until some route is found to avoid no deal (either a deal or a cunning plan from its opponents), at which time the £ will jump (or fall if everything then goes pear shaped)

SouthamObserver

logical_song said:

SouthamObserver said:

Foxy said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?

I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.

Boris is chasing part of the BXP demographic, the part that is financially secure, older and in the shires. I don't think that there ismuch appeal to the WWC part of the BXP.

Not long-term - but for one election framed as the one to get England out of the EU there will be. The betrayals come after that. Johnson has to go to the country before Brexit for this reason.

England? Not England & Wales or the United Kingdom?

The former Conservative and Unionist Party is now the English Nationalist Party. Any seats it gets in Wales, let alone Scotland, will be incidental to that.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Observer, disagree.

Farage could easily demand a co-operative approach to the election (ie Con standing aside in many seats to give him and others a clear run). If Boris agrees, he's a moron, if not, Farage et al. could run and claim they're going to stand up for leaving and keep Boris honest.

It's possible he could endorse the blonde fool, but not certain.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/seanjonesqc/status/1154279895624798209

IanB2

IDS on R4 putting a brave face on fronting Bozo's campaign and getting sweet FA in return

Foxy

alex. said:

SouthamObserver said:

Foxy said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?

I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.

Boris is chasing part of the BXP demographic, the part that is financially secure, older and in the shires. I don't think that there ismuch appeal to the WWC part of the BXP.

Not long-term - but for one election framed as the one to get England out of the EU there will be. The betrayals come after that. Johnson has to go to the country before Brexit for this reason.

An election pre-Brexit is much easier for the LibDems as well though. Post Brexit (whether as bad or not as bad as predicted) and everything goes out the window. Even with a bad Brexit there may be a feeling of "well we're out, let's try and get to work making the best of it". As opposed to another year of dithering over referendums to rejoin etc (by which time things may have begun to improve and Remain (OUT) may win anyway.

I suspect that LD policy in an autumn post No Deal Brexit election wouls be to join the EFTA/EEA immediately. It would be rather funny to see @Richard_Tyndall with his orange diamond up in his front garden!

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1154283149117075456

https://twitter.com/KayBurley/status/1154282223102828544

timmo

This is now all about the Tory party raising money over the summer period. They are desperately short of funds to fight a GE..

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1154284082446123008

Barnesian

AlastairMeeks said:

Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?

I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.

Yes.

I've looked at two scenarios:
A ) Tories gain 5% from BXP and lose 5% to LDs
B ) Tories gain 10% from BXP and lose 5% to LDs

Using the EMA as a base and Electoral Calculus it gives for Con, Lab, LD and BXP:

Base 220, 240, 61, 55
Case A 295, 216, 65, 0
Case B 355, 175, 47, 0

The Tories gain far more seats from attracting BXP voters than they lose to the LDs from defecting Tories.

I assume the Tories have done a similar calculation so the game plan I assume is to emulate the BXP, suffer loses to the LDs and gain an overall majority in a snap election.

If, additionally, LDs gain 5% from Lab then the seats are
Case B plus 5% from Lab 372, 122, 83, 0

The Tories get an even bigger majority. The resurgence of the LDs is a big opportunity for the Tories. It would be in their interests to actually encourage it. The only counter is a very smart tactical voting strategy from the anti-Tory parties.

IanB2

IDS saying no pre-Brexit election.

He clearly doesn't buy his friend HY's prediction.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. B2, that is a bit weird, likewise Grayling going (I think he resigned, but that might've been due to an offered inferior position).

Don't get me wrong, I'm glad Grayling's gone, but he's clearly pro-leave and a supporter of Boris, so that's a little peculiar.

OldKingCole

I wonder what potentially iliberal choice is on Patels desk!

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1154284989137260544

Sandpit

alex. said:

CarlottaVance said:

alex. said:

Johnson could have the best plan in the world. It might even achieve its aim (if its aim is restricted to leaving the EU on 31 October come what may).

None of it changes his unsuitability for the position of Prime Minister, and at some point he will be brutally exposed.

Completely off topic - the reports about Johnson moving in to the "4 bed flat" above no11 (which only started being PM home because Blair had children and Brown didn't), with Javid (+ wife and 4 kids) moving into "2 bed flat" above no10.

I think it's reasonable to speculate that either no10 is not actually a "2 bed flat" or the latter isn't happening!

The Sun says Javid will stay in his family home in Fulham - apparently Johnson’s grown children will be moving in too, so there may be need there

Loss of Telegraph money means he can't pay the child support?

He earned something like £800k last year from writing and speaking, his salary now is £150k - something that will no doubt annoy his ex-wife.

Drutt

Say what you like about Boris, he's brought the weather.

YBarddCwsc

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Observer, disagree.

Farage could easily demand a co-operative approach to the election (ie Con standing aside in many seats to give him and others a clear run). If Boris agrees, he's a moron, if not, Farage et al. could run and claim they're going to stand up for leaving and keep Boris honest.

It's possible he could endorse the blonde fool, but not certain.

But, Farage is not really interested in politics.

He is interested in money. What he really wants is to be super-wealthy.

I think there are many ways Shagger can buy him off.

Mexicanpete

YBarddCwsc said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Observer, disagree.

Farage could easily demand a co-operative approach to the election (ie Con standing aside in many seats to give him and others a clear run). If Boris agrees, he's a moron, if not, Farage et al. could run and claim they're going to stand up for leaving and keep Boris honest.

It's possible he could endorse the blonde fool, but not certain.

But, Farage is not really interested in politics.

He is interested in money. What he really wants is to be super-wealthy.

I think there are many ways Shagger can buy him off.

Ambassador to the US?

malcolmg

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Observer, I'm not so sure.

Almost nothing will be 'hard' enough to satisfy BP, but if that does happen then the responsibility (and, bare minimum, that means significant short term disruption exacerbated by lack of planning) falls squarely on the Conservatives.

Lib Dems still looking good but they need to recognise and capitalise on the fact that this set of extremely favourable circumstances may never again recur. Their objective has got to be to supplant Labour, become the major party of the left, and defeat the Conservatives.

Very big ask. But not incredible.

With the array of donkeys they have I would say it is more than a big ask unless they trip over it.

IanB2

Barnesian said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?

I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.

Yes.

I've looked at two scenarios:
A ) Tories gain 5% from BXP and lose 5% to LDs
B ) Tories gain 10% from BXP and lose 5% to LDs

Using the EMA as a base and Electoral Calculus it gives for Con, Lab, LD and BXP:

Base 220, 240, 61, 55
Case A 295, 216, 65, 0
Case B 355, 175, 47, 0

The Tories gain far more seats from attracting BXP voters than they lose to the LDs from defecting Tories.

I assume the Tories have done a similar calculation so the game plan I assume is to emulate the BXP, suffer loses to the LDs and gain an overall majority in a snap election.

If, additionally, LDs gain 5% from Lab then the seats are
Case B plus 5% from Lab 372, 122, 83, 0

The Tories get an even bigger majority. The resurgence of the LDs is a big opportunity for the Tories. It would be in their interests to actually encourage it. The only counter is a very smart tactical voting strategy from the anti-Tory parties.

Electoral Calculus is next to useless in current circumstances. Of the models available only Flavible is trying to be a bit more sophisticated.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/cjayanetti/status/1154286506766413824

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1154285812223291392

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1154286149839544320

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1154287073895038976

YBarddCwsc

Mexicanpete said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Observer, disagree.

Farage could easily demand a co-operative approach to the election (ie Con standing aside in many seats to give him and others a clear run). If Boris agrees, he's a moron, if not, Farage et al. could run and claim they're going to stand up for leaving and keep Boris honest.

It's possible he could endorse the blonde fool, but not certain.

But, Farage is not really interested in politics.

He is interested in money. What he really wants is to be super-wealthy.

I think there are many ways Shagger can buy him off.

Ambassador to the US?

I am not sure the current President of the US is susceptible to reasoning, so we might as well have Farage in Washington.

Selfish, I know, but I'd prefer to have Farage a few thousand miles away.

DavidL

Mexicanpete said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Observer, disagree.

Farage could easily demand a co-operative approach to the election (ie Con standing aside in many seats to give him and others a clear run). If Boris agrees, he's a moron, if not, Farage et al. could run and claim they're going to stand up for leaving and keep Boris honest.

It's possible he could endorse the blonde fool, but not certain.

But, Farage is not really interested in politics.

He is interested in money. What he really wants is to be super-wealthy.

I think there are many ways Shagger can buy him off.

Ambassador to the US?

Got to be tempting. TBP is a one man band. Get Farage out of the way and there are a lot of ex Tory voters in play. They won’t get them all but they may well get enough.

Big_G_NorthWales

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1154285812223291392

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1154286149839544320

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1154287073895038976

At least Boris has stopped Dunt's foul language for once

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1154287575911321600

NickPalmer

Barnesian said:

The Tories get an even bigger majority. The resurgence of the LDs is a big opportunity for the Tories. It would be in their interests to actually encourage it. The only counter is a very smart tactical voting strategy from the anti-Tory parties.

I think that's correct. Boris has a high floor but a low ceiling - he won't get more than 33% or so. The LibDems will do well but I can't see them getting much over 20% - already an excellent improvement. The election will hinge on whethe voters like Olly T and Cyclefree who dislike Boris, Corbyn and No Deal with almost equal passion, are prepared to vote tactically (for Labour if necessary - but also Labour voters in LibDem targets voting LibDem). If they do, Boris will be out and we'll see a Remain-leaning hung Parliament. If they don't, we'll see No Deal.

tbh I thought Olly's conclusion the other day that he wouldn't support his moderate Labour MP because it might be interpreted as support for Cornyn was odd - it's obvious there isn't going to be a majority for hard left policies, and unlikely to be one for Labour, so I'd have thought that stopping No Deal - a very real possibility - would take priority. But these are strange times, and I'm not sure most people otgher than the diminishing band of partisans like me now really know how they'll vote.

Foxy

OldKingCole said:

CarlottaVance said:

alex. said:

Johnson could have the best plan in the world. It might even achieve its aim (if its aim is restricted to leaving the EU on 31 October come what may).

None of it changes his unsuitability for the position of Prime Minister, and at some point he will be brutally exposed.

Completely off topic - the reports about Johnson moving in to the "4 bed flat" above no11 (which only started being PM home because Blair had children and Brown didn't), with Javid (+ wife and 4 kids) moving into "2 bed flat" above no10.

I think it's reasonable to speculate that either no10 is not actually a "2 bed flat" or the latter isn't happening!

The Sun says Javid will stay in his family home in Fulham - apparently Johnson’s grown children will be moving in too, so there may be need there. May occupied the larger flat even though it was only her & Philip.

Dosn'r Johnson's grown children moving in with him prsdnt something of a security risk? Surely there shouldn't be too many people unconnected with government coming and going?

Presumably only the Johnson children on which he is on speaking terms! It will be interesting seeing them flatshare with his doxy. No red wine...

kle4

As has been noted already keeping on board enemies and rivals doesnt work, Boris knows that personally from his time in May's cabinet, so I dont have an issue in principle with vast changes by an incoming PM, even if it may be that plenty of the choices are not stellar.

But it will only matter if they are there for the long haul and that means him winning an election soon. I doubt that but it is hard - a good result in Brecon would be encouraging for him but it's down to if he delivers brexit, or more likely if he is not blamed if parliament stops us leaving. If neither happens even a win in Brecon would mean little .

FF43

We are so used to consensus politics, divide and rule comes as a shock. Johnson may be less successful at it than Thatcher however. There are too many factors he can't control.

IanB2

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1154287575911321600

You can lay next GE in October at just 3 on BFE

Gallowgate

Penny Mordaunt told me that Boris is a twit. Pass it on.

alex.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/cjayanetti/status/1154286506766413824

No hope JRM?

Sandpit

IanB2 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1154287575911321600

You can lay next GE in October at just 3 on BFE

Good spot, thanks. (I backed at various prices between 10 and 18 a couple of weeks ago).

Gallowgate

alex. said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/cjayanetti/status/1154286506766413824

No hope JRM?

Flavible, based on the latest YouGov poll and uniform swing shows him holding it on a knife edge.

I know, I know. UNS is bollocks.

williamglenn

New Chief Secretary to the Treasury:

https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1154279802918096897

IanB2

NickPalmer said:

Barnesian said:

The Tories get an even bigger majority. The resurgence of the LDs is a big opportunity for the Tories. It would be in their interests to actually encourage it. The only counter is a very smart tactical voting strategy from the anti-Tory parties.

I think that's correct. Boris has a high floor but a low ceiling - he won't get more than 33% or so. The LibDems will do well but I can't see them getting much over 20% - already an excellent improvement. The election will hinge on whethe voters like Olly T and Cyclefree who dislike Boris, Corbyn and No Deal with almost equal passion, are prepared to vote tactically (for Labour if necessary - but also Labour voters in LibDem targets voting LibDem). If they do, Boris will be out and we'll see a Remain-leaning hung Parliament. If they don't, we'll see No Deal.

tbh I thought Olly's conclusion the other day that he wouldn't support his moderate Labour MP because it might be interpreted as support for Cornyn was odd - it's obvious there isn't going to be a majority for hard left policies, and unlikely to be one for Labour, so I'd have thought that stopping No Deal - a very real possibility - would take priority. But these are strange times, and I'm not sure most people otgher than the diminishing band of partisans like me now really know how they'll vote.

And if Cycle is voting in Camden she has a Labour/LibDem (maybe Green) choice of remain parties with no need to worry about tactics.

Nigelb

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?

I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.

The LibDems could be as big a threat (or bigger, given they know how to fight parliamentary elections at scale):

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1153635730926780416?s=20

With Labour so weak, the Lib Dems are much closer to a breakthrough than they have ever been. In 2010 they were polling better but so were Labour. This capped their possible successes. It would take really only quite a small bump in the polls for the Lib Dems to be clearly second. At that point herd dynamics would look very different.

Yes.
It's quite clear that voters wanting to stop Boris are going to have a choice to make. And Corbyn has self-imposed a ceiling on Labour by his 'leadership'.

FF43

If Johnson is successful in his strategy, I think he will lose Scotland. English nationalism doesn't play well in these parts obviously.