Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?
If Johnson doesn’t go for an election soon, look out for splits between him and the ERG.
He excluded and sidelined the 'spartans' but the leader of the ERG is now leader of the house, so I do not see much of a problem if Boris and his cabinet put a new or amended deal to the HOC. Also do not discount the 40 or so labour mps who will vote to leave
It would need to resolve the backstop for him to bring the deal back, it's another unequivocal thing he will find it hard to row back from. Fudged wording wont work - most of the ERG including the chair were willing to accept the deal as is, but the rest appear to need something more than fudge.
As for the labour mps sure a couple say they should have voted for may's deal but that doesnt mean they would or for a Boris deal. Some of them used to whine that may being mean to labour made them not back her deal, eventhough that's irrelevant. Boris will say something and they'll find an excuse to say no again.
Mr. G, you're looking in the wrong direction, I think. I'm more influence by the atrocious Labour front bench and probably terrible Conservative front bench (it seems Boris has gone for a factional rather than a unity approach).
Flavible, based on the latest YouGov poll and uniform swing shows him holding it on a knife edge.
I know, I know. UNS is bollocks.
Flavible applies considerable modifications to UNS, in an attempt to model current circumstances. Whether it is better or not, who can say, but they are thinking along the right lines. On UNS Mogg would still be miles ahead.
Mr. G, you're looking in the wrong direction, I think. I'm more influence by the atrocious Labour front bench and probably terrible Conservative front bench (it seems Boris has gone for a factional rather than a unity approach).
Penny Mordaunt told @HYUFD that it’s a unity approach so it’s a unity approach and if you doubt that you’re a die-hard remainer and they don’t want your vote or approval anyway.
Under almost any scenario most of the 12 Scottish tories are gone. Ruth Davidson has been very quiet recently. A no deal Brexit is now more unlikely than ever it will be a no deal Exit.
With Labour so weak, the Lib Dems are much closer to a breakthrough than they have ever been. In 2010 they were polling better but so were Labour. This capped their possible successes. It would take really only quite a small bump in the polls for the Lib Dems to be clearly second. At that point herd dynamics would look very different.
Johnson's divide and rule strategy depends on Labour being hopeless but not TOO hopeless.
Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?
If Johnson doesn’t go for an election soon, look out for splits between him and the ERG.
He excluded and sidelined the 'spartans' but the leader of the ERG is now leader of the house, so I do not see much of a problem if Boris and his cabinet put a new or amended deal to the HOC. Also do not discount the 40 or so labour mps who will vote to leave
It would need to resolve the backstop for him to bring the deal back, it's another unequivocal thing he will find it hard to row back from. Fudged wording wont work - most of the ERG including the chair were willing to accept the deal as is, but the rest appear to need something more than fudge.
As for the labour mps sure a couple say they should have voted for may's deal but that doesnt mean they would or for a Boris deal. Some of them used to whine that may being mean to labour made them not back her deal, eventhough that's irrelevant. Boris will say something and they'll find an excuse to say no again.
I do not think the 40 or so labour mps who do not want a referendum will vote to stop brexit
Think of a political party with no Prime Minister, twenty seven competing factions, and no policy except to eventually become a unified party. The EU is never going to change because it can't and still survive.
The Remainers split between those who want the status quo, and those who want full unification. Only one can happen and it's not the first.
If Johnson is successful in his strategy, I think he will lose Scotland. English nationalism doesn't play well in these parts obviously.
And Scots nationalism doesn't play well in England. That poster of Miliband in Salmond's pocket probably gave Cameron his majority in 2015. Which of course led us to where we are today.
Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?
I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.
Yes.
I've looked at two scenarios: A ) Tories gain 5% from BXP and lose 5% to LDs B ) Tories gain 10% from BXP and lose 5% to LDs
Using the EMA as a base and Electoral Calculus it gives for Con, Lab, LD and BXP:
Base 220, 240, 61, 55 Case A 295, 216, 65, 0 Case B 355, 175, 47, 0
The Tories gain far more seats from attracting BXP voters than they lose to the LDs from defecting Tories.
I assume the Tories have done a similar calculation so the game plan I assume is to emulate the BXP, suffer loses to the LDs and gain an overall majority in a snap election.
If, additionally, LDs gain 5% from Lab then the seats are Case B plus 5% from Lab 372, 122, 83, 0
The Tories get an even bigger majority. The resurgence of the LDs is a big opportunity for the Tories. It would be in their interests to actually encourage it. The only counter is a very smart tactical voting strategy from the anti-Tory parties.
Electoral Calculus is next to useless in current circumstances. Of the models available only Flavible is trying to be a bit more sophisticated.
It may be inaccurate because of tactical voting, UNS etc but it models the underlying structure of the FPTP system which has the perverse effect of giving a large majority to a party with only 32% of the vote (ie 68% against) if the opposition parties are split. The Tories know this and it's clear to me that is their strategy.
The Tories may welcome a VONC in September thereby forcing a GE. However if parliament is smart, it can use the FTPA to impose a temporary government of national unity to extend A50 and hold a confirmatory referendum WDA versus Remain.
The Tories get an even bigger majority. The resurgence of the LDs is a big opportunity for the Tories. It would be in their interests to actually encourage it. The only counter is a very smart tactical voting strategy from the anti-Tory parties.
I think that's correct. Boris has a high floor but a low ceiling - he won't get more than 33% or so. The LibDems will do well but I can't see them getting much over 20% - already an excellent improvement. The election will hinge on whethe voters like Olly T and Cyclefree who dislike Boris, Corbyn and No Deal with almost equal passion, are prepared to vote tactically (for Labour if necessary - but also Labour voters in LibDem targets voting LibDem). If they do, Boris will be out and we'll see a Remain-leaning hung Parliament. If they don't, we'll see No Deal.
tbh I thought Olly's conclusion the other day that he wouldn't support his moderate Labour MP because it might be interpreted as support for Cornyn was odd..
Not really. It just illustrates that Corbyn, like Boris, has a low ceiling now. The real question is how low might be Labour's floor.
Johnson could have the best plan in the world. It might even achieve its aim (if its aim is restricted to leaving the EU on 31 October come what may).
None of it changes his unsuitability for the position of Prime Minister, and at some point he will be brutally exposed.
Completely off topic - the reports about Johnson moving in to the "4 bed flat" above no11 (which only started being PM home because Blair had children and Brown didn't), with Javid (+ wife and 4 kids) moving into "2 bed flat" above no10.
I think it's reasonable to speculate that either no10 is not actually a "2 bed flat" or the latter isn't happening!
The Sun says Javid will stay in his family home in Fulham - apparently Johnson’s grown children will be moving in too, so there may be need there. May occupied the larger flat even though it was only her & Philip.
Curious - why would the grown children move in? Fallen on hard times?
I think, to use Sir Humphrey's terminology, Boris has been 'brave'! He has certainly put all his eggs in one Brexit basket and as he said on the steps of No 10, the buck stops here.
He will either win spectacularly, or fail disastrously there's no middle ground. Never have the first 100 days been so pivotal. If he pulls this off successfully I can see the Tories being a more than right of centre party for quite a while, and having thumping majorities in the HoC. The majorities may be high enough to get some real structural changes brought in, HoL reform, social care planning for old age, defence, etc. All the things Boris talked about yesterday.
If Johnson is successful in his strategy, I think he will lose Scotland. English nationalism doesn't play well in these parts obviously.
And Scots nationalism doesn't play well in England. That poster of Miliband in Salmond's pocket probably gave Cameron his majority in 2015. Which of course led us to where we are today.
I regret the loss of both unions. It's better when we work together.
Johnson could have the best plan in the world. It might even achieve its aim (if its aim is restricted to leaving the EU on 31 October come what may).
None of it changes his unsuitability for the position of Prime Minister, and at some point he will be brutally exposed.
Completely off topic - the reports about Johnson moving in to the "4 bed flat" above no11 (which only started being PM home because Blair had children and Brown didn't), with Javid (+ wife and 4 kids) moving into "2 bed flat" above no10.
I think it's reasonable to speculate that either no10 is not actually a "2 bed flat" or the latter isn't happening!
The Sun says Javid will stay in his family home in Fulham - apparently Johnson’s grown children will be moving in too, so there may be need there. May occupied the larger flat even though it was only her & Philip.
Curious - why would the grown children move in? Fallen on hard times?
I think, to use Sir Humphrey's terminology, Boris has been 'brave'! He has certainly put all his eggs in one Brexit basket and as he said on the steps of No 10, the buck stops here.
He will either win spectacularly, or fail disastrously there's no middle ground. Never have the first 100 days been so pivotal. If he pulls this off successfully I can see the Tories being a more than right of centre party for quite a while, and having thumping majorities in the HoC. The majorities may be high enough to get some real structural changes brought in, HoL reform, social care planning for old age, defence, etc. All the things Boris talked about yesterday.
Trying for no deal via prorogation looks most viable to me.
Prorogation is suicidal because it turns the HoC majority against No Deal into desperate men, which means the likes of Hammond etc would vote no confidence and presumably support a government of national unity, with a policy of a 2nd referendum as the only glue to hold it together.
A combination of suspending Standing Order No. 14 and the motion in neutral terms provided for by the Anderson amendment to the NI bill provides the mechanism to do it whilst the House is sitting. But even if the Leavers found ways to get round that (even if it required declaring the whole of October to be a Bank Holiday), then you don't need the House to be sitting for a PM to be booted out for lack of confidence.
The PM is only the person that is considered "best placed" to have the confidence of the House, there doesn't have to be a vote in the House. So if Johnson shuts the gates of Parliament, then MPs just decamp to the QEII conference centre or somewhere and have a vote of no confidence there instead, and then a vote of confidence in a government of national unity. It's impossible for Johnson to claim he is best placed to have the confidence of the House so has to resign.
I think his only option is to throw the dice on FPTP in a world of 4-way politics and hope that Corbyn splits the Remain vote more than Farage splits the Leave vote. It's probably not an unreasonable bet.
I think, to use Sir Humphrey's terminology, Boris has been 'brave'! He has certainly put all his eggs in one Brexit basket and as he said on the steps of No 10, the buck stops here.
He will either win spectacularly, or fail disastrously there's no middle ground. Never have the first 100 days been so pivotal. If he pulls this off successfully I can see the Tories being a more than right of centre party for quite a while, and having thumping majorities in the HoC. The majorities may be high enough to get some real structural changes brought in, HoL reform, social care planning for old age, defence, etc. All the things Boris talked about yesterday.
Mr. 86, tricky to take the line a second referendum is good in one case, but not the other.
On the other hand, Scots in particular, and the British generally, are probably sick of votes and political infighting, and might rather welcome a period of masterly inactivity.
Unfortunately, the PM is neither masterly, nor inactive.
The Tories get an even bigger majority. The resurgence of the LDs is a big opportunity for the Tories. It would be in their interests to actually encourage it. The only counter is a very smart tactical voting strategy from the anti-Tory parties.
tbh I thought Olly's conclusion the other day that he wouldn't support his moderate Labour MP because it might be interpreted as support for Corbyn was odd
Nothing odd about it in the slightest. Even rebels by and large support the leader, give them confidence and certainly their vote will be trumpeted by the party as an endorsement of the leader.
Only a partisan could find it curious that someone might not be able to support the tribe because of the leader even if they are generally ok with the local representative. It requires believing people should automatically compartmentalise and disregard what may be massive concerns on leadership and direction because some perhaps tiny faction within it are ok.
Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?
If Johnson doesn’t go for an election soon, look out for splits between him and the ERG.
He excluded and sidelined the 'spartans' but the leader of the ERG is now leader of the house, so I do not see much of a problem if Boris and his cabinet put a new or amended deal to the HOC. Also do not discount the 40 or so labour mps who will vote to leave
It would need to resolve the backstop for him to bring the deal back, it's another unequivocal thing he will find it hard to row back from. Fudged wording wont work - most of the ERG including the chair were willing to accept the deal as is, but the rest appear to need something more than fudge.
As for the labour mps sure a couple say they should have voted for may's deal but that doesnt mean they would or for a Boris deal. Some of them used to whine that may being mean to labour made them not back her deal, eventhough that's irrelevant. Boris will say something and they'll find an excuse to say no again.
I do not think the 40 or so labour mps who do not want a referendum will vote to stop brexit
Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?
I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.
Yes.
I've looked at two scenarios: A ) Tories gain 5% from BXP and lose 5% to LDs B ) Tories gain 10% from BXP and lose 5% to LDs
Using the EMA as a base and Electoral Calculus it gives for Con, Lab, LD and BXP:
Base 220, 240, 61, 55 Case A 295, 216, 65, 0 Case B 355, 175, 47, 0
The Tories gain far more seats from attracting BXP voters than they lose to the LDs from defecting Tories.
I assume the Tories have done a similar calculation so the game plan I assume is to emulate the BXP, suffer loses to the LDs and gain an overall majority in a snap election.
If, additionally, LDs gain 5% from Lab then the seats are Case B plus 5% from Lab 372, 122, 83, 0
The Tories get an even bigger majority. The resurgence of the LDs is a big opportunity for the Tories. It would be in their interests to actually encourage it. The only counter is a very smart tactical voting strategy from the anti-Tory parties.
Electoral Calculus is next to useless in current circumstances. Of the models available only Flavible is trying to be a bit more sophisticated.
It may be inaccurate because of tactical voting, UNS etc but it models the underlying structure of the FPTP system which has the perverse effect of giving a large majority to a party with only 32% of the vote (ie 68% against) if the opposition parties are split. The Tories know this and it's clear to me that is their strategy.
The Tories may welcome a VONC in September thereby forcing a GE. However if parliament is smart, it can use the FTPA to impose a temporary government of national unity to extend A50 and hold a confirmatory referendum WDA versus Remain.
Still not sure how this happens. If Johnson refuses to resign post loss of VoNC (and why would he - he will want to go into election as PM) the Queen can’t appoint a successor. And without a successor Parliament can’t pass a VoC in a successor. Technically she can sack him but that would be reversing over 200 years of constitutional practice.
There is a reason why until the FTPA the PM could insist on an election - because constitutionally the Queen must act on PM’s advice. I’m not sure how terms of FTPA actually change that (in the specific circumstances of a VoNC) even if they are designed to?
While it is true the latest Brecon poll has a comfortable LD lead on 43% to 28% for the Tories, with the Brexit Party on 20% the Tories and Brexit Party combined are on 48%.
Given how Boris' Cabinet reshuffle was very much targeted at Brexit Party voters, Brecon could be a lot closer now than that poll suggests
While it is true the latest Brecon poll has a comfortable LD lead on 43% to 28% for the Tories, with the Brexit Party on 20% the Tories and Brexit Party combined are on 48%.
Given how Boris' Cabinet reshuffle was very much targeted at Brexit Party voters, Brecon could be a lot closer now than that poll suggests
It might well be, but wont be an indicator for any GE unless the Bozziah delivers.
Since Gavin Williamson is keen on a police investigation to clear his name as a leaker of official secrets, perhaps he can ask Boris to get one started?
Just maybe we are over-analysing, with all the speculation about what grand strategy for Brexit these appointments are part of, and what it means for a GE?
We know that for years Bozo has sat in parliament surrounded by a clear majority of his own side disliking him and (allegedly) prepared to keep him off the ballot paper.
Maybe he just worked out who they all are?
He’s not stupid and he’ll have a plan. Whether it’s workable is another matter.
What if it's a stupid plan?
None of his options look good now. My assessment is that all his options are odds against and some are unworkable. I doubt his plan will be stupid but it will inevitably be risky.
Trying for no deal via prorogation looks most viable to me.
Like you I think he will try and prorogue Parliament. I don’t think he and his clique have any love for our democracy and will kick it out of the way to get their own way.
If Johnson is successful in his strategy, I think he will lose Scotland. English nationalism doesn't play well in these parts obviously.
I'm intrigued to see how Swinson tackles the Scottish issue. Will she be as strong on Sindy as she is on Brexit?
Yes, her pitch and the LD pitch is strongly pro Remain and pro EU and strongly pro UK and No to Scottish independence too.
Indeed the LDs are now arguably a more strongly pro Union party than even the Boris Tories who on a forced choice would prioritise Brexit for Leave voting England and Wales over keeping Remain voting Scotland and Northern Ireland in the Union even if ideally they want Brexit and the Union
The Tories get an even bigger majority. The resurgence of the LDs is a big opportunity for the Tories. It would be in their interests to actually encourage it. The only counter is a very smart tactical voting strategy from the anti-Tory parties.
I think that's correct. Boris has a high floor but a low ceiling - he won't get more than 33% or so. The LibDems will do well but I can't see them getting much over 20% - already an excellent improvement. The election will hinge on whethe voters like Olly T and Cyclefree who dislike Boris, Corbyn and No Deal with almost equal passion, are prepared to vote tactically (for Labour if necessary - but also Labour voters in LibDem targets voting LibDem). If they do, Boris will be out and we'll see a Remain-leaning hung Parliament. If they don't, we'll see No Deal.
tbh I thought Olly's conclusion the other day that he wouldn't support his moderate Labour MP because it might be interpreted as support for Cornyn was odd - it's obvious there isn't going to be a majority for hard left policies, and unlikely to be one for Labour, so I'd have thought that stopping No Deal - a very real possibility - would take priority. But these are strange times, and I'm not sure most people otgher than the diminishing band of partisans like me now really know how they'll vote.
And if Cycle is voting in Camden she has a Labour/LibDem (maybe Green) choice of remain parties with no need to worry about tactics.
My Labour MP, Tulip Siddiq, has a large majority. I will not be lending her my vote while Corbyn is in charge. It would make no difference anyway. .I will almost certainly vote Lib Dem. The candidates here have tended to be good ones.
Just maybe we are over-analysing, with all the speculation about what grand strategy for Brexit these appointments are part of, and what it means for a GE?
We know that for years Bozo has sat in parliament surrounded by a clear majority of his own side disliking him and (allegedly) prepared to keep him off the ballot paper.
Maybe he just worked out who they all are?
He’s not stupid and he’ll have a plan. Whether it’s workable is another matter.
What if it's a stupid plan?
None of his options look good now. My assessment is that all his options are odds against and some are unworkable. I doubt his plan will be stupid but it will inevitably be risky.
Trying for no deal via prorogation looks most viable to me.
Like you I think he will try and prorogue Parliament. I don’t think he and his clique have any love for our democracy and will kick it out of the way to get their own way.
He has been very clear we are coming out do or die. Unless he is simply lying that definitely means he will try to prorogue if he cannot renegotiate.
Leaving either that he doesnt really want to prorogue and it's a device to get an election without seeming to ask for it and where us not leaving is not his fault, or he really does think proroguing is a good idea.
Personally while i understand the value of keeping options open i do not understand how people think it ok to in essence say any action at all is acceptable to achieve even a good aim. Do or die is a very unpleasant attitude. I'd prefer if he was just explicit that he will seek to prorogue. In effect it might be the same result but it feels more honest as if he gets a deal he might claim afterwards his do or die talk did not mean he would prorogue
If Johnson is successful in his strategy, I think he will lose Scotland. English nationalism doesn't play well in these parts obviously.
Curtice has 51% of Scottish Remainers already backing Yes to independence but 64% of Scottish Leavers still backing No putting No still narrowly ahead over all
So, 'reshuffle' is not the word. We have a new and very different government, created without troubling the electorate. I've changed my mind on a 2019 election. Unless this is all an elaborate hoax it must be coming. No way can this regime last the year.
As regards the Johnson cabinet, yuck what a shower. A collection of ideologues, reactionaries, opportunists, careerists and charlatans with a dangerously low median mental capacity.
In other words, as the face of Brexit, it is well nigh perfect.
While it is true the latest Brecon poll has a comfortable LD lead on 43% to 28% for the Tories, with the Brexit Party on 20% the Tories and Brexit Party combined are on 48%.
Given how Boris' Cabinet reshuffle was very much targeted at Brexit Party voters, Brecon could be a lot closer now than that poll suggests
Equally it could be even more of a triumph. I suspect a lot of centralist Tories are thinking that it might be worth making a point.
Boris is courting a right wing vote that will never be happy and at the potential permanent cost of a lot of centralist Tories (who I know you don't care about).
As I've stated for a long time the only question really is when the Tory party dies..
Johnson could have the best plan in the world. It might even achieve its aim (if its aim is restricted to leaving the EU on 31 October come what may).
None of it changes his unsuitability for the position of Prime Minister, and at some point he will be brutally exposed.
Completely off topic - the reports about Johnson moving in to the "4 bed flat" above no11 (which only started being PM home because Blair had children and Brown didn't), with Javid (+ wife and 4 kids) moving into "2 bed flat" above no10.
I think it's reasonable to speculate that either no10 is not actually a "2 bed flat" or the latter isn't happening!
The Sun says Javid will stay in his family home in Fulham - apparently Johnson’s grown children will be moving in too, so there may be need there. May occupied the larger flat even though it was only her & Philip.
Curious - why would the grown children move in? Fallen on hard times?
To be honest I think it’s nonsense. It’s just a poor excuse been put out to justify Johnson taking the larger flat, in place of Javid who should clearly have it if Johnson had any sense of empathy or consideration for the needs of others.
I'm starting to believe Leave will actually happen.
Its the sackings: Not the sheer quantity, continuity remoan never had a right to any significant cabinet presence before Leaving Day. No, it was the method chosen to defenestrate Hunt. Offer him a lesser job, currently held by one of his *own8 supporters. Then sack the supporter, and offer it again. Morton's Fork. Take it or leave it, Hunt is diminished as an opponent. And BJ's (DominicC?) rep for ruthless action goes up several notches.
He's going to give the EU a real run for their money, esp in co-ordination with Trump.
While it is true the latest Brecon poll has a comfortable LD lead on 43% to 28% for the Tories, with the Brexit Party on 20% the Tories and Brexit Party combined are on 48%.
Given how Boris' Cabinet reshuffle was very much targeted at Brexit Party voters, Brecon could be a lot closer now than that poll suggests
I also think it might not be an easy seat to poll accurately.
While it is true the latest Brecon poll has a comfortable LD lead on 43% to 28% for the Tories, with the Brexit Party on 20% the Tories and Brexit Party combined are on 48%.
Given how Boris' Cabinet reshuffle was very much targeted at Brexit Party voters, Brecon could be a lot closer now than that poll suggests
Johnson could have the best plan in the world. It might even achieve its aim (if its aim is restricted to leaving the EU on 31 October come what may).
None of it changes his unsuitability for the position of Prime Minister, and at some point he will be brutally exposed.
Completely off topic - the reports about Johnson moving in to the "4 bed flat" above no11 (which only started being PM home because Blair had children and Brown didn't), with Javid (+ wife and 4 kids) moving into "2 bed flat" above no10.
I think it's reasonable to speculate that either no10 is not actually a "2 bed flat" or the latter isn't happening!
The Sun says Javid will stay in his family home in Fulham - apparently Johnson’s grown children will be moving in too, so there may be need there. May occupied the larger flat even though it was only her & Philip.
Curious - why would the grown children move in? Fallen on hard times?
He and Marina have agreed the sale of the marital home, so maybe they hadn’t moved out yet?
Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?
I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.
Agreed and I think Labour will collapse to third in more polls as with Yougov yesterday caught and strangled by Remainers going to the LDs and Greens and Leavers going to the Brexit Party and Boris Tories.
Which is exactly what Corbyn deserves after his pathetic party politics games over the Withdrawal Agreement
Ruth must surely be accelerating plans for a Scottish Party breakaway? Only chance the’ve got? Or are they better off trying to maximise their share of the Scottish leave vote?
Just maybe we are over-analysing, with all the speculation about what grand strategy for Brexit these appointments are part of, and what it means for a GE?
We know that for years Bozo has sat in parliament surrounded by a clear majority of his own side disliking him and (allegedly) prepared to keep him off the ballot paper.
Maybe he just worked out who they all are?
He’s not stupid and he’ll have a plan. Whether it’s workable is another matter.
What if it's a stupid plan?
None of his options look good now. My assessment is that all his options are odds against and some are unworkable. I doubt his plan will be stupid but it will inevitably be risky.
Trying for no deal via prorogation looks most viable to me.
Like you I think he will try and prorogue Parliament. I don’t think he and his clique have any love for our democracy and will kick it out of the way to get their own way.
He has been very clear we are coming out do or die. Unless he is simply lying that definitely means he will try to prorogue if he cannot renegotiate.
Leaving either that he doesnt really want to prorogue and it's a device to get an election without seeming to ask for it and where us not leaving is not his fault, or he really does think proroguing is a good idea.
Prorogation of Parliament is shutting down our democracy. It is the action of a would-be dictator.
While it is true the latest Brecon poll has a comfortable LD lead on 43% to 28% for the Tories, with the Brexit Party on 20% the Tories and Brexit Party combined are on 48%.
Given how Boris' Cabinet reshuffle was very much targeted at Brexit Party voters, Brecon could be a lot closer now than that poll suggests
Equally it could be even more of a triumph. I suspect a lot of centralist Tories are thinking that it might be worth making a point.
Boris is courting a right wing vote that will never be happy and at the potential permanent cost of a lot of centralist Tories (who I know you don't care about).
As I've stated for a long time the only question really is when the Tory party dies..
Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?
I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.
Agreed and I think Labour will collapse to third in more polls as with Yougov yesterday caught and strangled by Remainers going to the LDs and Greens and Leavers going to the Brexit Party and Boris Tories.
Which is exactly what Corbyn deserves after his pathetic party politics games over the Withdrawal Agreement
Why on earth would Greens go to the Brexit Party or the Tories?
While it is true the latest Brecon poll has a comfortable LD lead on 43% to 28% for the Tories, with the Brexit Party on 20% the Tories and Brexit Party combined are on 48%.
Given how Boris' Cabinet reshuffle was very much targeted at Brexit Party voters, Brecon could be a lot closer now than that poll suggests
Equally it could be even more of a triumph. I suspect a lot of centralist Tories are thinking that it might be worth making a point.
Boris is courting a right wing vote that will never be happy and at the potential permanent cost of a lot of centralist Tories (who I know you don't care about).
As I've stated for a long time the only question really is when the Tory party dies..
Nope, 52% of Brecon voters voted Leave and most Remainers will already be voting LD, it is the Leave vote divided between the Tories and Brexit Party.
The only way the Tory Party would have died is if the Brexit Party replaces it as the main party of the right, now with Boris as Tory leader there is more chance of Labour dieing and being replaces by the LDs or left with a rump of hard-core socialists than the Tories dieing
Well despite his use of language occasionally(and stupidly worded insults) I dont get the impression Boris cares about peoples race at all. The EU and supporters can be awfully pleased with their own magnificence on some issues, not always warranted. Has the ethnic make up of MePs beyond the UK altered much now?
Ruth must surely be accelerating plans for a Scottish Party breakaway? Only chance the’ve got? Or are they better off trying to maximise their share of the Scottish leave vote?
I'm starting to believe Leave will actually happen.
Its the sackings: Not the sheer quantity, continuity remoan never had a right to any significant cabinet presence before Leaving Day. No, it was the method chosen to defenestrate Hunt. Offer him a lesser job, currently held by one of his *own8 supporters. Then sack the supporter, and offer it again. Morton's Fork. Take it or leave it, Hunt is diminished as an opponent. And BJ's (DominicC?) rep for ruthless action goes up several notches.
He's going to give the EU a real run for their money, esp in co-ordination with Trump.
Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?
I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.
Yes.
I've looked at two scenarios: A ) Tories gain 5% from BXP and lose 5% to LDs B ) Tories gain 10% from BXP and lose 5% to LDs
Using the EMA as a base and Electoral Calculus it gives for Con, Lab, LD and BXP:
Base 220, 240, 61, 55 Case A 295, 216, 65, 0 Case B 355, 175, 47, 0
The Tories gain far more seats from attracting BXP voters than they lose to the LDs from defecting Tories.
I assume the Tories have done a similar calculation so the game plan I assume is to emulate the BXP, suffer loses to the LDs and gain an overall majority in a snap election.
If, additionally, LDs gain 5% from Lab then the seats are Case B plus 5% from Lab 372, 122, 83, 0
The Tories get an even bigger majority. The resurgence of the LDs is a big opportunity for the Tories. It would be in their interests to actually encourage it. The only counter is a very smart tactical voting strategy from the anti-Tory parties.
Electoral Calculus is next to useless in current circumstances. Of the models available only Flavible is trying to be a bit more sophisticated.
It may be inaccurate because of tactical voting, UNS etc but it models the underlying structure of the FPTP system which has the perverse effect of giving a large majority to a party with only 32% of the vote (ie 68% against) if the opposition parties are split. The Tories know this and it's clear to me that is their strategy.
The Tories may welcome a VONC in September thereby forcing a GE. However if parliament is smart, it can use the FTPA to impose a temporary government of national unity to extend A50 and hold a confirmatory referendum WDA versus Remain.
It could, though there would be an almighty battle over the terms of any referendum, which I suspect might prevent a majority in the Commons being found to vote for it. Even if it were, Johnson could run against either of those referendum results in the ensuing election. As someone primarily concerned with being in Downing Street, that would not necessarily be an unattractive option for him, since the electoral calculus might not have changed substantially.
Just maybe we are over-analysing, with all the speculation about what grand strategy for Brexit these appointments are part of, and what it means for a GE?
We know that for years Bozo has sat in parliament surrounded by a clear majority of his own side disliking him and (allegedly) prepared to keep him off the ballot paper.
Maybe he just worked out who they all are?
He’s not stupid and he’ll have a plan. Whether it’s workable is another matter.
What if it's a stupid plan?
None of his options look good now. My assessment is that all his options are odds against and some are unworkable. I doubt his plan will be stupid but it will inevitably be risky.
Trying for no deal via prorogation looks most viable to me.
Like you I think he will try and prorogue Parliament. I don’t think he and his clique have any love for our democracy and will kick it out of the way to get their own way.
He has been very clear we are coming out do or die. Unless he is simply lying that definitely means he will try to prorogue if he cannot renegotiate.
Leaving either that he doesnt really want to prorogue and it's a device to get an election without seeming to ask for it and where us not leaving is not his fault, or he really does think proroguing is a good idea.
Prorogation of Parliament is shutting down our democracy. It is the action of a would-be dictator.
I disagree with it too. My point was that I wish hed be clearer that it is his intention.
Sterling up again this morning and now consistently stronger on the week.
Currency markets understanding clearly what Hammond, Grieve, Gauke et al extraordinarily seem unable to grasp - that to get a decent deal the UK must prepare, credibly, for no deal.
Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?
I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.
Agreed and I think Labour will collapse to third in more polls as with Yougov yesterday caught and strangled by Remainers going to the LDs and Greens and Leavers going to the Brexit Party and Boris Tories.
Which is exactly what Corbyn deserves after his pathetic party politics games over the Withdrawal Agreement
Why on earth would Greens go to the Brexit Party or the Tories?
While it is true the latest Brecon poll has a comfortable LD lead on 43% to 28% for the Tories, with the Brexit Party on 20% the Tories and Brexit Party combined are on 48%.
Given how Boris' Cabinet reshuffle was very much targeted at Brexit Party voters, Brecon could be a lot closer now than that poll suggests
Equally it could be even more of a triumph. I suspect a lot of centralist Tories are thinking that it might be worth making a point.
Boris is courting a right wing vote that will never be happy and at the potential permanent cost of a lot of centralist Tories (who I know you don't care about).
As I've stated for a long time the only question really is when the Tory party dies..
It has died. It is now the Brexit party.
no it hasn't died , its in serious trouble tho'.. this illness can and will be cured...
The Tories get an even bigger majority. The resurgence of the LDs is a big opportunity for the Tories. It would be in their interests to actually encourage it. The only counter is a very smart tactical voting strategy from the anti-Tory parties.
I think that's correct. Boris has a high floor but a low ceiling - he won't get more than 33% or so. The LibDems will do well but I can't see them getting much over 20% - already an excellent improvement. The election will hinge on whethe voters like Olly T and Cyclefree who dislike Boris, Corbyn and No Deal with almost equal passion, are prepared to vote tactically (for Labour if necessary - but also Labour voters in LibDem targets voting LibDem). If they do, Boris will be out and we'll see a Remain-leaning hung Parliament. If they don't, we'll see No Deal.
tbh I thought Olly's conclusion the other day that he wouldn't support his moderate Labour MP because it might be interpreted as support for Cornyn was odd - it's obvious there isn't going to be a majority for hard left policies, and unlikely to be one for Labour, so I'd have thought that stopping No Deal - a very real possibility - would take priority. But these are strange times, and I'm not sure most people otgher than the diminishing band of partisans like me now really know how they'll vote.
The really odd thing, Nick, is that people like you continue to prioritise Jeremy Corbyn leading the Labour party over defeating the most overtly right wing government this country has ever had. If people do not vote Labour that is Labour's fault and absolutely no-one else's. You and other party members are directly responsible for where we are now. And when Johnson is returned as PM after this autumn's election you will be complicit in that, too.
Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?
I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.
Agreed and I think Labour will collapse to third in more polls as with Yougov yesterday caught and strangled by Remainers going to the LDs and Greens and Leavers going to the Brexit Party and Boris Tories.
Which is exactly what Corbyn deserves after his pathetic party politics games over the Withdrawal Agreement
Why on earth would Greens go to the Brexit Party or the Tories?
Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?
I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.
Agreed and I think Labour will collapse to third in more polls as with Yougov yesterday caught and strangled by Remainers going to the LDs and Greens and Leavers going to the Brexit Party and Boris Tories.
Which is exactly what Corbyn deserves after his pathetic party politics games over the Withdrawal Agreement
Why on earth would Greens go to the Brexit Party or the Tories?
Sterling up again this morning and now consistently stronger on the week.
Currency markets understanding clearly what Hammond, Grieve, Gauke et al extraordinarily seem unable to grasp - that to get a decent deal the UK must prepare, credibly, for no deal.
The only deal available is Teresa May's deal. The alternative is No Deal or No Brexit. These are the only choices.
Ruth must surely be accelerating plans for a Scottish Party breakaway? Only chance the’ve got? Or are they better off trying to maximise their share of the Scottish leave vote?
I think a Scottish CUP is the only way forward
This would be long overdue and would in turn hoover up the unionist vote.
The key point is that Labour are finished, probably permanently, as a scottish electoral force.
Sterling up again this morning and now consistently stronger on the week.
Currency markets understanding clearly what Hammond, Grieve, Gauke et al extraordinarily seem unable to grasp - that to get a decent deal the UK must prepare, credibly, for no deal.
No, its not. Its treading water against the $ fractionally down on the session so far. And below where it was a week ago
The Tories get an even bigger majority. The resurgence of the LDs is a big opportunity for the Tories. It would be in their interests to actually encourage it. The only counter is a very smart tactical voting strategy from the anti-Tory parties.
I think that's correct. Boris has a high floor but a low ceiling - he won't get more than 33% or so. The LibDems will do well but I can't see them getting much over 20% - already an excellent improvement. The election will hinge on whethe voters like Olly T and Cyclefree who dislike Boris, Corbyn and No Deal with almost equal passion, are prepared to vote tactically (for Labour if necessary - but also Labour voters in LibDem targets voting LibDem). If they do, Boris will be out and we'll see a Remain-leaning hung Parliament. If they don't, we'll see No Deal.
tbh I thought Olly's conclusion the other day that he wouldn't support his moderate Labour MP because it might be interpreted as support for Cornyn was odd - it's obvious there isn't going to be a majority for hard left policies, and unlikely to be one for Labour, so I'd have thought that stopping No Deal - a very real possibility - would take priority. But these are strange times, and I'm not sure most people otgher than the diminishing band of partisans like me now really know how they'll vote.
The really odd thing, Nick, is that people like you continue to prioritise Jeremy Corbyn leading the Labour party over defeating the most overtly right wing government this country has ever had. If people do not vote Labour that is Labour's fault and absolutely no-one else's. You and other party members are directly responsible for where we are now. And when Johnson is returned as PM after this autumn's election you will be complicit in that, too.
In many ways, I think the complete opposite is true. Now of all times would be a really, really bad time for Labour to have another leadership challenge, to present themselves as a divided party... we have to focus on stopping Johnson and No Deal.
Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?
I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.
Agreed and I think Labour will collapse to third in more polls as with Yougov yesterday caught and strangled by Remainers going to the LDs and Greens and Leavers going to the Brexit Party and Boris Tories.
Which is exactly what Corbyn deserves after his pathetic party politics games over the Withdrawal Agreement
Why on earth would Greens go to the Brexit Party or the Tories?
Its his crap punctuation.
Thanks. Yes you can read it the other way ;-)
A (further) consequence of his typing without thinking
Sterling up again this morning and now consistently stronger on the week.
Currency markets understanding clearly what Hammond, Grieve, Gauke et al extraordinarily seem unable to grasp - that to get a decent deal the UK must prepare, credibly, for no deal.
While it is true the latest Brecon poll has a comfortable LD lead on 43% to 28% for the Tories, with the Brexit Party on 20% the Tories and Brexit Party combined are on 48%.
Given how Boris' Cabinet reshuffle was very much targeted at Brexit Party voters, Brecon could be a lot closer now than that poll suggests
Sterling up again this morning and now consistently stronger on the week.
Currency markets understanding clearly what Hammond, Grieve, Gauke et al extraordinarily seem unable to grasp - that to get a decent deal the UK must prepare, credibly, for no deal.
No, its not. Its treading water against the $ fractionally down on the session so far.
Ruth must surely be accelerating plans for a Scottish Party breakaway? Only chance the’ve got? Or are they better off trying to maximise their share of the Scottish leave vote?
Sterling up again this morning and now consistently stronger on the week.
Currency markets understanding clearly what Hammond, Grieve, Gauke et al extraordinarily seem unable to grasp - that to get a decent deal the UK must prepare, credibly, for no deal.
Sterling up again this morning and now consistently stronger on the week.
Currency markets understanding clearly what Hammond, Grieve, Gauke et al extraordinarily seem unable to grasp - that to get a decent deal the UK must prepare, credibly, for no deal.
No, its not. Its treading water against the $ fractionally down on the session so far.
The strength of sterling is traditionally viewed against the reserve currency (or a weighted global basket), and £/€ has the additional disadvantage that bad Brexit outcomes hit both currencies. The Euro has been weak this week against some poor EU economic data. With the £ flat against the $ your original "clearly" statement about the markets is nonsense.
Sterling up again this morning and now consistently stronger on the week.
Currency markets understanding clearly what Hammond, Grieve, Gauke et al extraordinarily seem unable to grasp - that to get a decent deal the UK must prepare, credibly, for no deal.
The only deal available is Teresa May's deal. The alternative is No Deal or No Brexit. These are the only choices.
They really arent.
And even if they are, in the longer term the UK is probably better off with no deal than one that ties it into all the costs and disadvantages of EU membership, but none of the benefits.
She can round up all those luvvies who were going to leave London if he became Mayor. They all still seem to be here, giving their views on why he'll be a disaster THIS time.....
Comments
As for the labour mps sure a couple say they should have voted for may's deal but that doesnt mean they would or for a Boris deal. Some of them used to whine that may being mean to labour made them not back her deal, eventhough that's irrelevant. Boris will say something and they'll find an excuse to say no again.
The Remainers split between those who want the status quo, and those who want full unification. Only one can happen and it's not the first.
The Tories may welcome a VONC in September thereby forcing a GE. However if parliament is smart, it can use the FTPA to impose a temporary government of national unity to extend A50 and hold a confirmatory referendum WDA versus Remain.
The real question is how low might be Labour's floor.
He will either win spectacularly, or fail disastrously there's no middle ground. Never have the first 100 days been so pivotal. If he pulls this off successfully I can see the Tories being a more than right of centre party for quite a while, and having thumping majorities in the HoC. The majorities may be high enough to get some real structural changes brought in, HoL reform, social care planning for old age, defence, etc. All the things Boris talked about yesterday.
A combination of suspending Standing Order No. 14 and the motion in neutral terms provided for by the Anderson amendment to the NI bill provides the mechanism to do it whilst the House is sitting. But even if the Leavers found ways to get round that (even if it required declaring the whole of October to be a Bank Holiday), then you don't need the House to be sitting for a PM to be booted out for lack of confidence.
The PM is only the person that is considered "best placed" to have the confidence of the House, there doesn't have to be a vote in the House. So if Johnson shuts the gates of Parliament, then MPs just decamp to the QEII conference centre or somewhere and have a vote of no confidence there instead, and then a vote of confidence in a government of national unity. It's impossible for Johnson to claim he is best placed to have the confidence of the House so has to resign.
I think his only option is to throw the dice on FPTP in a world of 4-way politics and hope that Corbyn splits the Remain vote more than Farage splits the Leave vote. It's probably not an unreasonable bet.
On the other hand, Scots in particular, and the British generally, are probably sick of votes and political infighting, and might rather welcome a period of masterly inactivity.
Unfortunately, the PM is neither masterly, nor inactive.
When asked if in an early GE would labour campaign to remain she 'waffled incoherent nonsense'.
Just driving more to the conservatives and lib dems who are now leave - remain parties and sums up labour's irrelevance
Only a partisan could find it curious that someone might not be able to support the tribe because of the leader even if they are generally ok with the local representative. It requires believing people should automatically compartmentalise and disregard what may be massive concerns on leadership and direction because some perhaps tiny faction within it are ok.
There is a reason why until the FTPA the PM could insist on an election - because constitutionally the Queen must act on PM’s advice. I’m not sure how terms of FTPA actually change that (in the specific circumstances of a VoNC) even if they are designed to?
Given how Boris' Cabinet reshuffle was very much targeted at Brexit Party voters, Brecon could be a lot closer now than that poll suggests
Like you I think he will try and prorogue Parliament. I don’t think he and his clique have any love for our democracy and will kick it out of the way to get their own way.
Indeed the LDs are now arguably a more strongly pro Union party than even the Boris Tories who on a forced choice would prioritise Brexit for Leave voting England and Wales over keeping Remain voting Scotland and Northern Ireland in the Union even if ideally they want Brexit and the Union
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-uk-trade-boris-wednesday-1.5221984
Leaving either that he doesnt really want to prorogue and it's a device to get an election without seeming to ask for it and where us not leaving is not his fault, or he really does think proroguing is a good idea.
Personally while i understand the value of keeping options open i do not understand how people think it ok to in essence say any action at all is acceptable to achieve even a good aim. Do or die is a very unpleasant attitude. I'd prefer if he was just explicit that he will seek to prorogue. In effect it might be the same result but it feels more honest as if he gets a deal he might claim afterwards his do or die talk did not mean he would prorogue
So, 'reshuffle' is not the word. We have a new and very different government, created without troubling the electorate. I've changed my mind on a 2019 election. Unless this is all an elaborate hoax it must be coming. No way can this regime last the year.
As regards the Johnson cabinet, yuck what a shower. A collection of ideologues, reactionaries, opportunists, careerists and charlatans with a dangerously low median mental capacity.
In other words, as the face of Brexit, it is well nigh perfect.
Boris is courting a right wing vote that will never be happy and at the potential permanent cost of a lot of centralist Tories (who I know you don't care about).
As I've stated for a long time the only question really is when the Tory party dies..
Its the sackings: Not the sheer quantity, continuity remoan never had a right to any significant cabinet presence before Leaving Day. No, it was the method chosen to defenestrate Hunt. Offer him a lesser job, currently held by one of his *own8 supporters. Then sack the supporter, and offer it again. Morton's Fork. Take it or leave it, Hunt is diminished as an opponent. And BJ's (DominicC?) rep for ruthless action goes up several notches.
He's going to give the EU a real run for their money, esp in co-ordination with Trump.
Which is exactly what Corbyn deserves after his pathetic party politics games over the Withdrawal Agreement
Absolutely the right thing to do.
It has died. It is now the Brexit party.
The only way the Tory Party would have died is if the Brexit Party replaces it as the main party of the right, now with Boris as Tory leader there is more chance of Labour dieing and being replaces by the LDs or left with a rump of hard-core socialists than the Tories dieing
I'd still remain over no deal though.
Even if it were, Johnson could run against either of those referendum results in the ensuing election.
As someone primarily concerned with being in Downing Street, that would not necessarily be an unattractive option for him, since the electoral calculus might not have changed substantially.
Currency markets understanding clearly what Hammond, Grieve, Gauke et al extraordinarily seem unable to grasp - that to get a decent deal the UK must prepare, credibly, for no deal.
Perhaps this lot will finally sort social care funding, if they have enough time.
Javid at least appears to be an adult in the room.
Jo Johnson is back as uni minister. He is suited to this role.
Rudd remains DWP, so there will be continuity and means McVey is nowhere near the job.
Any others (on domestic front, I know all bout Brexit blah blah blah)?
This has to be a first?
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1154297052328861698
This would be long overdue and would in turn hoover up the unionist vote.
The key point is that Labour are finished, probably permanently, as a scottish electoral force.
Now of all times would be a really, really bad time for Labour to have another leadership challenge, to present themselves as a divided party... we have to focus on stopping Johnson and No Deal.
Click 'Historical' tab
LD 45%
CON 30%
BXP 15%
OTH 10%
Two of the top offices of state filled by BAMEs.
Welsh Conservatives should follow suit.
Sterling is cheap...
And even if they are, in the longer term the UK is probably better off with no deal than one that ties it into all the costs and disadvantages of EU membership, but none of the benefits.
I get sick and tired of 'celebrities' posturing!