> > > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now?
> >
> >
> >
> > Far from it. We now have to be moving to a second referendum with two separate questions: first, Remain or Leave (as in 2016), followed by (if Leave wins) May’s Deal vs No Deal. There’s simply no other viable way out. And it might just save the Tory party.
> >
> >
> > Cannot see why the first question (a re-run of the 2016 ref) is acceptable.
> >
> > Bercow has already made it clear that in parliament a re-introducing of essentially the same bill for approval/rejection is verboten.
> >
> > And the referendum is an outsourcing of paliament's decision-making. So we also cannot re-ask that question. The only concern is how we leave.
> >
> >
> >
> > I think the mandate from the referendum is now way out of date.
>
> +1 The fundamental point is the best deal is EU membership, to rule that out in any future referendum is counter to the public interest. If people vote to Leave in a second referendum then, I would accept that but given its impact on the lives of British people for generations to come a three way referendum of No Deal, Deal or No Brexit (Remain) should be instigated to bring this matter to a conclusion.
>
The best deal is certainly not EUI membership. And it is your insistence on this point and on trying to reverse the referendum result that is making a NO Deal all the more likely. Your fanaticism is just as damaging to the country as that of the ERG. More so in fact because what you are destroying is the basic belief in democracy.
No he isn't. Democracy is fine. Brexit is the problem.
> @Recidivist said: > > @Recidivist said: > > > > @Quincel said: > > > > > > > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now? > > > > > > > > > > > > Far from it. We now have to be moving to a second referendum with two separate questions: first, Remain or Leave (as in 2016), followed by (if Leave wins) May’s Deal vs No Deal. There’s simply no other viable way out. And it might just save the Tory party. > > > > > > > > > Cannot see why the first question (a re-run of the 2016 ref) is acceptable. > > > > > > Bercow has already made it clear that in parliament a re-introducing of essentially the same bill for approval/rejection is verboten. > > > > > > And the referendum is an outsourcing of paliament's decision-making. So we also cannot re-ask that question. The only concern is how we leave. > > > > > > > > > > > > I think the mandate from the referendum is now way out of date. > > > > When do you think the government should have invoked article 50? > > When they were ready to actually leave. 7-8 years after the referendum maybe. If it was a serious project it would have been necessary to give it a chance of success.
So you actively willed a situation where you would be able to make your claim that the referendum was out of date.
Gove's game is now to burnish his appeal to the Remain majority of Conservative MPs, and hope that he gets into the final ballot with Hunt at the expense of Johnson/Raab. There is a fair chance of that. Once Gove gets that far he'll about turn and become a born again Brexiteer and try and re-establish his credentials to appeal to the Tory membership. Faced with a choice between two Cabinet ministers who facilitated May right to the very end, the members will still choose him over Hunt.
The flaw in that plan is that following today's pronouncement he'll now be seen as a continuity May PM and that would really open the door to Farage to decimate the Tories at a GE.
Gove was the one I was expecting to say that the only chance of a getting a better deal, was to be genuinely prepared to leave without one.
> @Sandpit said: > > Gove was the one I was expecting to say that the only chance of a getting a better deal, was to be genuinely prepared to leave without one. ------------
He knows it's not possible to be genuinely prepared.
> @Recidivist said: > > @The_Taxman said: > > > > @Recidivist said: > > > > > @Quincel said: > > > > > > > > > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Far from it. We now have to be moving to a second referendum with two separate questions: first, Remain or Leave (as in 2016), followed by (if Leave wins) May’s Deal vs No Deal. There’s simply no other viable way out. And it might just save the Tory party. > > > > > > > > > > > > Cannot see why the first question (a re-run of the 2016 ref) is acceptable. > > > > > > > > Bercow has already made it clear that in parliament a re-introducing of essentially the same bill for approval/rejection is verboten. > > > > > > > > And the referendum is an outsourcing of paliament's decision-making. So we also cannot re-ask that question. The only concern is how we leave. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I think the mandate from the referendum is now way out of date. > > > > > > +1 The fundamental point is the best deal is EU membership, to rule that out in any future referendum is counter to the public interest. If people vote to Leave in a second referendum then, I would accept that but given its impact on the lives of British people for generations to come a three way referendum of No Deal, Deal or No Brexit (Remain) should be instigated to bring this matter to a conclusion. > > > > > > > The best deal is certainly not EUI membership. And it is your insistence on this point and on trying to reverse the referendum result that is making a NO Deal all the more likely. Your fanaticism is just as damaging to the country as that of the ERG. More so in fact because what you are destroying is the basic belief in democracy. > > No he isn't. Democracy is fine. Brexit is the problem.
You are another with your head buried in the sand.
It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure.
> @DavidL said: > > @Foxy said: > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > @DavidL said: > > > > Really disappointing game. Spurs played the better football but could play till midnight without scoring. Kane a total waste of space. Liverpool playing the worst I have seen this season but much more clinical in front of goal. > > > > > > Good summary of a very poor game. > > > > Kane and Firmino were not match fit.. > > > > Spurs had their only chances when Lucas Moura came on, should have started. > > > > > > Kane strikes me as a player with an oversized ego who thinks it is all about him. I think England are better without him as well. He should not have been on the pitch.
> @another_richard said: > > @AndyJS said: > > Is anyone shedding any tears at the collapse in support for the two main parties? Can't say I am particularly. > > No
Nope. It really is true that Leave/Remain identity is now stronger than the old party tags.
> > > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now?
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Far from it. We now have to be moving to a second referendum with two separate questions: first, Remain or Leave (as in 2016), followed by (if Leave wins) May’s Deal vs No Deal. There’s simply no other viable way out. And it might just save the Tory party.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Cannot see why the first question (a re-run of the 2016 ref) is acceptable.
>
> >
>
> > Bercow has already made it clear that in parliament a re-introducing of essentially the same bill for approval/rejection is verboten.
>
> >
>
> > And the referendum is an outsourcing of paliament's decision-making. So we also cannot re-ask that question. The only concern is how we leave.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > I think the mandate from the referendum is now way out of date.
>
>
>
> When do you think the government should have invoked article 50?
>
> When they were ready to actually leave. 7-8 years after the referendum maybe. If it was a serious project it would have been necessary to give it a chance of success.
So you actively willed a situation where you would be able to make your claim that the referendum was out of date.
Not sure what you mean. We had a referendum. Acted on it. Failed.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > You are another with your head buried in the sand. ---------------
It's rich to accuse people of destroying faith in democracy when you supported a decades-long campaign to delegitimise something that was the product of our democratic system.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @The_Taxman said: > > > @Recidivist said: > > > > @Quincel said: > > > > > > > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now? > > > > > > > > > > > > Far from it. We now have to be moving to a second referendum with two separate questions: first, Remain or Leave (as in 2016), followed by (if Leave wins) May’s Deal vs No Deal. There’s simply no other viable way out. And it might just save the Tory party. > > > > > > > > > Cannot see why the first question (a re-run of the 2016 ref) is acceptable. > > > > > > Bercow has already made it clear that in parliament a re-introducing of essentially the same bill for approval/rejection is verboten. > > > > > > And the referendum is an outsourcing of paliament's decision-making. So we also cannot re-ask that question. The only concern is how we leave. > > > > > > > > > > > > I think the mandate from the referendum is now way out of date. > > > > +1 The fundamental point is the best deal is EU membership, to rule that out in any future referendum is counter to the public interest. If people vote to Leave in a second referendum then, I would accept that but given its impact on the lives of British people for generations to come a three way referendum of No Deal, Deal or No Brexit (Remain) should be instigated to bring this matter to a conclusion. > > > > The best deal is certainly not EUI membership. And it is your insistence on this point and on trying to reverse the referendum result that is making a NO Deal all the more likely. Your fanaticism is just as damaging to the country as that of the ERG. More so in fact because what you are destroying is the basic belief in democracy.
lol - The result of the referendum in 2016 was just a vote. I am talking about the fundamental economics of such a decision. Your someone who wants a deal, that is a respectable decision but for an intelligent man I can never understand why you harp on about democracy but fail to vote in local elections and seem to think that being aligned with a deal to the EU with no say or democratic input is democratic.
On a passing note I have suggested you don't make comments personal in the past, calling me a fanatic for stating the bleeding obvious is an odd way to behave. Have you never seen the economic output graphs associated with the various forms of Brexit? You obviously understand the implications of each level of detachment. Have you ever thought about the implications for democracy by executing Brexit as non-European Immigrants will replace immigrants from Europe. The economy will be smaller, jobs will be scarcer and opportunity will be harder to find....
> > > > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely?
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > > Far from it.
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > > Cannot see why the first question (a re-run of the 2016 ref) is acceptable.
>
> > >
>
> > > Bercow has already made it clear that in parliament a re-introducing of essentially the same bill for approval/rejection is verboten.
>
> > >
>
> > > And the referendum is an outsourcing of paliament's decision-making. So we also cannot re-ask that question. The only concern is how we leave.
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > > I think the mandate from the referendum is now way out of date.
>
> >
>
> > +1 The fundamental point is the best deal is EU membership, to rule that out in any future referendum is counter to the public interest. If people vote to Leave in a second referendum then, I would accept that but given its impact on the lives of British people for generations to come a three way referendum of No Deal, Deal or No Brexit (Remain) should be instigated to bring this matter to a conclusion.
>
> >
>
>
>
> The best deal is certainly not EUI membership. And it is your insistence on this point and on trying to reverse the referendum result that is making a NO Deal all the more likely. Your fanaticism is just as damaging to the country as that of the ERG. More so in fact because what you are destroying is the basic belief in democracy.
>
> No he isn't. Democracy is fine. Brexit is the problem.
You are another with your head buried in the sand.
> @DavidL said: > It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure.
It could also affect the Tory leadership ballots, which will begin 4 days after the Peterborough result is announced.
> @Recidivist said: > > @Recidivist said: > > > > @The_Taxman said: > > > > > > > > @Recidivist said: > > > > > > > > > @Quincel said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Far from it. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Cannot see why the first question (a re-run of the 2016 ref) is acceptable. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Bercow has already made it clear that in parliament a re-introducing of essentially the same bill for approval/rejection is verboten. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > And the referendum is an outsourcing of paliament's decision-making. So we also cannot re-ask that question. The only concern is how we leave. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I think the mandate from the referendum is now way out of date. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > +1 The fundamental point is the best deal is EU membership, to rule that out in any future referendum is counter to the public interest. If people vote to Leave in a second referendum then, I would accept that but given its impact on the lives of British people for generations to come a three way referendum of No Deal, Deal or No Brexit (Remain) should be instigated to bring this matter to a conclusion. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The best deal is certainly not EUI membership. And it is your insistence on this point and on trying to reverse the referendum result that is making a NO Deal all the more likely. Your fanaticism is just as damaging to the country as that of the ERG. More so in fact because what you are destroying is the basic belief in democracy. > > > > > > No he isn't. Democracy is fine. Brexit is the problem. > > > > You are another with your head buried in the sand. > > No I'm not. You are.
LOL. You are the one who seems to think that all we have to do is reverse the result of the referendum and everything will be fine. Like I said you have your head firmly buried in the sand. I am afraid you are in for a very nasty shock if you get your way.
> You are another with your head buried in the sand.
---------------
It's rich to accuse people of destroying faith in democracy when you supported a decades-long campaign to delegitimise something that was the product of our democratic system.
I seem to recall a vote three years ago to leave the EU. When did that happen?
> It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure.
It could also affect the Tory leadership ballots, which will begin 4 days after the Peterborough result is announced.
Yes it will. My fear (since I have no admiration at all for Farage) is that they are not going to win Peterborough, they are going to smash everyone else into oblivion. I really don't think people in the London bubble have got any idea even now how angry the majority of the country is that they have not done what they were told.
> This sudden ramping of TBP's chances in Peterborough is funny; they got barely more votes on the 23rd than UKIP got in 2014...
They got 38% at the Euros, miles ahead of everyone else. That was about 4 weeks ago.
38% on 35% turnout. Turnout is likely to be around 50% in the by election. And of course people vote differently in parliamentary elections.
Only miles ahead because the remain vote was split, rather less likely in FPTP. Lastly some of the best places for them are in the part of Peterborough outside the constituency; the Ortons and Standground.
> @The_Taxman said: > lol - The result of the referendum in 2016 was just a vote. I am talking about the fundamental economics of such a decision. Your someone who wants a deal, that is a respectable decision but for an intelligent man I can never understand why you harp on about democracy but fail to vote in local elections and seem to think that being aligned with a deal to the EU with no say or democratic input is democratic. > > On a passing note I have suggested you don't make comments personal in the past, calling me a fanatic for stating the bleeding obvious is an odd way to behave. Have you never seen the economic output graphs associated with the various forms of Brexit? You obviously understand the implications of each level of detachment. Have you ever thought about the implications for democracy by executing Brexit as non-European Immigrants will replace immigrants from Europe. The economy will be smaller, jobs will be scarcer and opportunity will be harder to find....
You are wittering on about fundamental economics and I am talking about fundamental democracy.
If you overturn that vote you show everyone who voted Brexit that democracy has failed and is no longer fit for purpose. Why should any of us bother with democracy if whatever we vote for can just be ignored and overturned by the politicians. That is the message you are sending even if you don't mean to. It is certainly the message that millions of people will hear and which the very people you oppose will use to justify whatever they decide to do. You will break this country completely. Not Brexit. You and all those Remoaners who refused to accept a democratic vote because you only care about democracy when you win.
Oh and I did vote in the local elections. I spoiled my ballot which is just as valid a vote as any of the scumbag politicians you will have voted for.
> @williamglenn said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > You are another with your head buried in the sand. > --------------- > > It's rich to accuse people of destroying faith in democracy when you supported a decades-long campaign to delegitimise something that was the product of our democratic system.
A particularly stupid argument from you this evening. One of your most idiotic I would suggest. I assume that means you are one of those who believes that criticising a political institution should be illegal.
> @DavidL said: > > @DavidL said: > > > It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure. > > > > It could also affect the Tory leadership ballots, which will begin 4 days after the Peterborough result is announced. > > Yes it will. My fear (since I have no admiration at all for Farage) is that they are not going to win Peterborough, they are going to smash everyone else into oblivion. I really don't think people in the London bubble have got any idea even now how angry the majority of the country is that they have not done what they were told.
Unfortunately that ignorance is shared by far too many posters on here as well.
> @AndyJS said: > > @brokenwheel said: > > This sudden ramping of TBP's chances in Peterborough is funny; they got barely more votes on the 23rd than UKIP got in 2014... > > They got 38% at the Euros, miles ahead of everyone else. That was about 4 weeks ago.
They got 31%, 12% ahead of the Lib Dems.
I agree they are highly likely to win Peterborough, because not only are they beating the UKIP vote share from 2014 but that switch is much more resilient and based on political identity (people are Leavers in a much deeper way than they were Eurosceptic).
> @DavidL said: > > @DavidL said: > > > It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure. > > > > It could also affect the Tory leadership ballots, which will begin 4 days after the Peterborough result is announced. > > Yes it will. My fear (since I have no admiration at all for Farage) is that they are not going to win Peterborough, they are going to smash everyone else into oblivion. I really don't think people in the London bubble have got any idea even now how angry the majority of the country is that they have not done what they were told.
That cannot be true, people on here have repeatedly said, what the worst all these old people could do? Strike by not using their bus pass or claiming their free tv license. That they continue to believe that by just cancelling brexit, everything will carry on as before and we all put it down to stupid northerners not knowing what’s good for them.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @The_Taxman said: > > lol - The result of the referendum in 2016 was just a vote. I am talking about the fundamental economics of such a decision. Your someone who wants a deal, that is a respectable decision but for an intelligent man I can never understand why you harp on about democracy but fail to vote in local elections and seem to think that being aligned with a deal to the EU with no say or democratic input is democratic. > > > > On a passing note I have suggested you don't make comments personal in the past, calling me a fanatic for stating the bleeding obvious is an odd way to behave. Have you never seen the economic output graphs associated with the various forms of Brexit? You obviously understand the implications of each level of detachment. Have you ever thought about the implications for democracy by executing Brexit as non-European Immigrants will replace immigrants from Europe. The economy will be smaller, jobs will be scarcer and opportunity will be harder to find.... > > You are wittering on about fundamental economics and I am talking about fundamental democracy. > > If you overturn that vote you show everyone who voted Brexit that democracy has failed and is no longer fit for purpose. Why should any of us bother with democracy if whatever we vote for can just be ignored and overturned by the politicians. That is the message you are sending even if you don't mean to. It is certainly the message that millions of people will hear and which the very people you oppose will use to justify whatever they decide to do. You will break this country completely. Not Brexit. You and all those Remoaners who refused to accept a democratic vote because you only care about democracy when you win. > > Oh and I did vote in the local elections. I spoiled my ballot which is just as valid a vote as any of the scumbag politicians you will have voted for.
I don't know why you are so vociferous this evening. It looks like you will be getting Brexit albeit one without a deal. You think it will be a success - I disagree. But in a democracy people can campaign on any issue they like.
Leadsom: "Discussions will culminate in a UK/EU summit, in September, in Belfast and Dublin, where the EU Council and proposed Commission will be invited to agree which measures we will all accept, to ensure a properly managed exit."
> > It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure.
>
>
>
> It could also affect the Tory leadership ballots, which will begin 4 days after the Peterborough result is announced.
>
> Yes it will. My fear (since I have no admiration at all for Farage) is that they are not going to win Peterborough, they are going to smash everyone else into oblivion. I really don't think people in the London bubble have got any idea even now how angry the majority of the country is that they have not done what they were told.
Unfortunately that ignorance is shared by far too many posters on here as well.
I'm not in the London bubble. I only visit the place for protest marches nowadays.
If Brexit was cancelled there would be an enormous sigh of relief - and everyone would have forgotten all about it in a few days.
> > This sudden ramping of TBP's chances in Peterborough is funny; they got barely more votes on the 23rd than UKIP got in 2014...
>
> They got 38% at the Euros, miles ahead of everyone else. That was about 4 weeks ago.
They got 31%, 12% ahead of the Lib Dems.
I agree they are highly likely to win Peterborough, because not only are they beating the UKIP vote share from 2014 but that switch is much more resilient and based on political identity (people are Leavers in a much deeper way than they were Eurosceptic).
He's referring to the result for the borough not nationally.
Another point, UKIP never won a by-election where the candidate wasn't a sitting MP. It's clear incumbency gave them a massive boost. Just look at the GE 2015 results in the seats they won in by elections and compare to their share in other target seats. If TBP didn't get much more votes here than UKIP did it seems unlikely they will do it here.
I see the T May exit anomaly has still not been resolved on Betfair, in that the betting still thinks she won't resign as Tory leader this month, even though when I last saw Betfair rule on it, they said IIRC it would be resolved on June 7. Is there still some doubt about what Betfair mean by "When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?"
I'm £300 green if they accept that when she resigns on June 7, it means she ceases to be leader (I'll take the risk that she changes her mind). But if they may not mean that, then I'll cash out at £86 green.
> @AndyJS said: > > @Quincel said: > > Even at 20/1 or so Rory Stewart is way too short on BF... > > > > As is Andrea Leadsom. What is she doing at under 10s?! > > Yep her odds are strange for someone with precisely 3 public backers so far.
It's a 12 horse race and they are joint 10th (Leadsom) and joint 11th (Stewart), and yet she's 3rd favourite with the bookies! Madness. No particular evidence that she'll pick up lots of support with the members, and loads of evidence he won't.
For all the reminders we are rightly making about upsets in Tory leadership elections, we should recall that last time the order of MPs support was unchanged from the first ballot onwards. 5th place got knocked out, 4th place withdrew, 3rd place got knocked out next, 2nd place withdrew. There was no sudden late swing. With many more candidates I expect there will be a bit more intrigue and interesting second (and third, and fourth) preferences - but to expect people at the back of the pack to get anywhere seems to be based on nothing much. Furthermore, though more MPs voted than publicly endorsed, the order of public endorsements to votes in the first ballot matched perfectly 1st to 5th (and the size of the gaps not bad either).
And the first ballot is barely a week away. When are the outsiders going to turn it around? And why are two or three of them considered decent chances?
> @Recidivist said: > > @DavidL said: > > > > @DavidL said: > > > > > > > It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure. > > > > > > > > > > > > It could also affect the Tory leadership ballots, which will begin 4 days after the Peterborough result is announced. > > > > > > Yes it will. My fear (since I have no admiration at all for Farage) is that they are not going to win Peterborough, they are going to smash everyone else into oblivion. I really don't think people in the London bubble have got any idea even now how angry the majority of the country is that they have not done what they were told. > > > > Unfortunately that ignorance is shared by far too many posters on here as well. > > I'm not in the London bubble. I only visit the place for protest marches nowadays. > > If Brexit was cancelled there would be an enormous sigh of relief - and everyone would have forgotten all about it in a few days.
That might quite literally be the stupidest thing I have read on PB, and I was here when Stewart Jackson used to post.
> @DavidL said: > It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure.
> @brokenwheel said: > > @AndyJS said: > > > > @brokenwheel said: > > > > This sudden ramping of TBP's chances in Peterborough is funny; they got barely more votes on the 23rd than UKIP got in 2014... > > > > > > They got 38% at the Euros, miles ahead of everyone else. That was about 4 weeks ago. > > > > They got 31%, 12% ahead of the Lib Dems. > > > > I agree they are highly likely to win Peterborough, because not only are they beating the UKIP vote share from 2014 but that switch is much more resilient and based on political identity (people are Leavers in a much deeper way than they were Eurosceptic). > > He's referring to the result for the borough not nationally. > > Another point, UKIP never won a by-election where the candidate wasn't a sitting MP. If they didn't get much more votes here than UKIP did it seems unlikely they will do it here.
Ah yes, good point.
Surely the key difference is how split all the other votes are and how badly the big two are doing? 30% could win the by-election, and Labour are the main threat. 30%+ looks much more achievable now than 5 years ago and Labour look awful. If it was a strong Lib Dem second place last time I'd worry for TBP, but now?
> @Recidivist said: > > @DavidL said: > > > > @DavidL said: > > > > > > > It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure. > > > > > > > > > > > > It could also affect the Tory leadership ballots, which will begin 4 days after the Peterborough result is announced. > > > > > > Yes it will. My fear (since I have no admiration at all for Farage) is that they are not going to win Peterborough, they are going to smash everyone else into oblivion. I really don't think people in the London bubble have got any idea even now how angry the majority of the country is that they have not done what they were told. > > > > Unfortunately that ignorance is shared by far too many posters on here as well. > > I'm not in the London bubble. I only visit the place for protest marches nowadays. > > If Brexit was cancelled there would be an enormous sigh of relief - and everyone would have forgotten all about it in a few days.
I am surprised how poorly Boris is doing in the MPs endorsements. Last time he was miles ahead.
I suspect you are right and he'll make it through, but I personally really disagree with the logic. The purpose of the MPs ballot prior to the membership is that the MPs act as gatekeepers - if they are influenced in either direction by membership polling they aren't doing the job properly imho. We've seen with Labour the reason for the MP phase of the process: the leader has to have broad support of the parliamentary party. If MPs are going to start rubber stamping the members choice that is wrong.
But again, that's just my opinion on what they should do. Not what I think they will do. I wouldn't be shocked if Boris was eliminated after another Leave candidate unified 2nd prefs but I don't expect it. Ultimately though, we need to recall how unpredictable the switching can be. It's a load of personal dynamics and secret promises/threats we cannot possibly know about from our position.
> @DavidL said: > It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure. > ---------
If there were an MV4, the Brexit Party MP would be voting against it.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @DavidL said: > > > @DavidL said: > > > > > It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure. > > > > > > > > It could also affect the Tory leadership ballots, which will begin 4 days after the Peterborough result is announced. > > > > Yes it will. My fear (since I have no admiration at all for Farage) is that they are not going to win Peterborough, they are going to smash everyone else into oblivion. I really don't think people in the London bubble have got any idea even now how angry the majority of the country is that they have not done what they were told. > > Unfortunately that ignorance is shared by far too many posters on here as well.
Case in point the poster who claims if Brexit cancelled it will be forgotten about after a couple of days.
> @notme2 said: > > @Recidivist said: > > > @DavidL said: > > > > > > @DavidL said: > > > > > > > > > > > It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > It could also affect the Tory leadership ballots, which will begin 4 days after the Peterborough result is announced. > > > > > > > > > > Yes it will. My fear (since I have no admiration at all for Farage) is that they are not going to win Peterborough, they are going to smash everyone else into oblivion. I really don't think people in the London bubble have got any idea even now how angry the majority of the country is that they have not done what they were told. > > > > > > > > Unfortunately that ignorance is shared by far too many posters on here as well. > > > > I'm not in the London bubble. I only visit the place for protest marches nowadays. > > > > If Brexit was cancelled there would be an enormous sigh of relief - and everyone would have forgotten all about it in a few days. > > That might quite literally be the stupidest thing I have read on PB, and I was here when Stewart Jackson used to post.
> @williamglenn said: > > @DavidL said: > > It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure. > > > --------- > > If there were an MV4, the Brexit Party MP would be voting against it.
I know. It’s why I voted Tory rather than TBP in the Euros. But hopefully the other MPs will realise it is the last chance saloon.
> It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure.
It could also affect the Tory leadership ballots, which will begin 4 days after the Peterborough result is announced.
Yes it will. My fear (since I have no admiration at all for Farage) is that they are not going to win Peterborough, they are going to smash everyone else into oblivion. I really don't think people in the London bubble have got any idea even now how angry the majority of the country is that they have not done what they were told.
As slightly more of the country continue to think Brexit was s mistake than think it a good idea, the majority of the country probably aren't angry.
> @FF43 said: > > @DavidL said: > > > It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure. > > > > It could also affect the Tory leadership ballots, which will begin 4 days after the Peterborough result is announced. > > Yes it will. My fear (since I have no admiration at all for Farage) is that they are not going to win Peterborough, they are going to smash everyone else into oblivion. I really don't think people in the London bubble have got any idea even now how angry the majority of the country is that they have not done what they were told. > > As slightly more of the country continue to think Brexit was s mistake than think it a good idea, the majority of the country probably aren't angry.
On the contrary, many of them are angry with the prospect of leaving the EU just like many of the rest are angry with the prospect we might not.
People don't have to actually be losing to be angry at having something taken away from them. They just have to think they are.
> @DavidL said: > > @DavidL said: > > > It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure. > > > > It could also affect the Tory leadership ballots, which will begin 4 days after the Peterborough result is announced. > > Yes it will. My fear (since I have no admiration at all for Farage) is that they are not going to win Peterborough, they are going to smash everyone else into oblivion. I really don't think people in the London bubble have got any idea even now how angry the majority of the country is that they have not done what they were told.
Do you think that would help the campaign of a No Dealer like Dominic Raab with Tory MPs?
Congrats to the scousers - making the CL final 2 years on the bounce alone means they are worthy winners and of course their season merits a first trophy for Klopp.
I just hope tonight wasn't as as good as it gets for Spurs and we might get a trophy ourselves before too much longer. What a ride that was.
> @Quincel said: > > @AndyJS said: > > > @brokenwheel said: > > > This sudden ramping of TBP's chances in Peterborough is funny; they got barely more votes on the 23rd than UKIP got in 2014... > > > > They got 38% at the Euros, miles ahead of everyone else. That was about 4 weeks ago. > > They got 31%, 12% ahead of the Lib Dems. > > I agree they are highly likely to win Peterborough, because not only are they beating the UKIP vote share from 2014 but that switch is much more resilient and based on political identity (people are Leavers in a much deeper way than they were Eurosceptic).
I don't know where the 31% figure comes from. They got 38% in the district and the experts I've read have said there wouldn't be much difference in their share of the vote in the constituency, not more than 2%.
> @AndyJS said: > > @DavidL said: > > > @DavidL said: > > > > > It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure. > > > > > > > > It could also affect the Tory leadership ballots, which will begin 4 days after the Peterborough result is announced. > > > > Yes it will. My fear (since I have no admiration at all for Farage) is that they are not going to win Peterborough, they are going to smash everyone else into oblivion. I really don't think people in the London bubble have got any idea even now how angry the majority of the country is that they have not done what they were told. > > Do you think that would help the campaign of a No Dealer like Dominic Raab with Tory MPs?
Yes and he’s a long, long way down my list of preferred candidates. Indeed it’s only people like Leadsom that has him off the bottom.
------------------------------ If they don't think he is suitable then that will not have changed. Even for politicians their judgements and values won't mean shit if they ignore all their misgivings and get him on the ballot when they would not otherwise. It's not 'contriving' to keep him off the ballot if they don't want him, it's the whole point not to let through those they do not like for the job.
If they are pushed through fear to let him through they might as well just make it a coronation, since what if they 'contrive' a bunch of opposition to try to sway the members to vote against him, the horror.
> @AndyJS said: > > @Quincel said: > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > @brokenwheel said: > > > > This sudden ramping of TBP's chances in Peterborough is funny; they got barely more votes on the 23rd than UKIP got in 2014... > > > > > > They got 38% at the Euros, miles ahead of everyone else. That was about 4 weeks ago. > > > > They got 31%, 12% ahead of the Lib Dems. > > > > I agree they are highly likely to win Peterborough, because not only are they beating the UKIP vote share from 2014 but that switch is much more resilient and based on political identity (people are Leavers in a much deeper way than they were Eurosceptic). > > I don't know where the 31% figure comes from. They got 38% in the district and the experts I've read have said there wouldn't be much difference in their share of the vote in the constituency, not more than 2%.
31% was their national share, I misunderstood you.
> @Pulpstar said: > > @DavidL said: > > It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure. > > Yvette knows best.
It will be interesting to see how it pans out with the potential new BP MP.
He seems like he may be his own man, given his age, business acumen and experience.
> @Pulpstar said: > > @DavidL said: > > It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure. > > Yvette knows best.
Yvette would lose her seat to the Brexit Party on tonight's polling
> @DavidL said: > It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure.
---------------------------- Why wouldn't they? They can easily find reasons as to why Peterborough should be ignored - add up the remain parties' share, a one off situation, it's a low turnout in a single seat, the polls are more supportive, Brexit is just plain wrong, take your pick - so the idea they will pause to think about the implications is just plain bizarre.
They have been more than capable of estimating what sort of reaction there would be to not leaving. Half of them at least are perfectly content with that. And given the shifts to more strongly remain parties, as well as no deal Brexit parties, there's not a single reason to think, outside of mythical leave seat Lab MPs, that anything will change. And even that requires the Tories to try something again which will get at least the same support they had last time, which is no guarantee now.
> @rottenborough said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > > @DavidL said: > > > It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure. > > > > Yvette knows best. > > It will be interesting to see how it pans out with the potential new BP MP. > > He seems like he may be his own man, given his age, business acumen and experience. > > Be careful what you wish for Nigel. ----------------------- That would take a while to come to a head though.
> @kle4 said: > > @DavidL said: > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > @Scott_P said: > > > > https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1134930038728667136 > > > > > > > > > Looks like the only thing that can stop Boris is Boris now. > > > > Pretty much inconceivable that Tory MPs could contrive to keep him off the ballot in the face of polling like this. > > ------------------------------ > If they don't think he is suitable then that will not have changed. Even for politicians their judgements and values won't mean shit if they ignore all their misgivings and get him on the ballot when they would not otherwise. It's not 'contriving' to keep him off the ballot if they don't want him, it's the whole point not to let through those they do not like for the job. > > If they are pushed through fear to let him through they might as well just make it a coronation, since what if they 'contrive' a bunch of opposition to try to sway the members to vote against him, the horror.
You don’t think the party is sufficiently split yet? The idea of both our major parties having leaders that a significant number of their own MPs think are not fit for office is not hugely appealing.
> > It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure.
>
> Yvette knows best.
It will be interesting to see how it pans out with the potential new BP MP.
He seems like he may be his own man, given his age, business acumen and experience.
Be careful what you wish for Nigel.
The first seeds of the disappointment meme for BXP’s next victory are being planted
One of the advantages of May pre-announcing her resignation is that it is less likely that any of the ERG loons will jump ship to join TBP should they win Peterborough. They won't want to miss out on their chance to get their candidate onto the ballot.
What happens after the ballot - that is another matter entirely. I don't see how the new leader will keep everyone on board.
> @DavidL said: > > @kle4 said: > > > @DavidL said: > > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > > @Scott_P said: > > > > > https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1134930038728667136 > > > > > > > > > > > > Looks like the only thing that can stop Boris is Boris now. > > > > > > Pretty much inconceivable that Tory MPs could contrive to keep him off the ballot in the face of polling like this. > > > > ------------------------------ > > If they don't think he is suitable then that will not have changed. Even for politicians their judgements and values won't mean shit if they ignore all their misgivings and get him on the ballot when they would not otherwise. It's not 'contriving' to keep him off the ballot if they don't want him, it's the whole point not to let through those they do not like for the job. > > > > If they are pushed through fear to let him through they might as well just make it a coronation, since what if they 'contrive' a bunch of opposition to try to sway the members to vote against him, the horror. > > You don’t think the party is sufficiently split yet? The idea of both our major parties having leaders that a significant number of their own MPs think are not fit for office is not hugely appealing.
> @DavidL said: > > @kle4 said: > > > @DavidL said: > > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > > @Scott_P said: > > > > > https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1134930038728667136 > > > > > > > > > > > > Looks like the only thing that can stop Boris is Boris now. > > > > > > Pretty much inconceivable that Tory MPs could contrive to keep him off the ballot in the face of polling like this. > > > > ------------------------------ > > If they don't think he is suitable then that will not have changed. Even for politicians their judgements and values won't mean shit if they ignore all their misgivings and get him on the ballot when they would not otherwise. It's not 'contriving' to keep him off the ballot if they don't want him, it's the whole point not to let through those they do not like for the job. > > > > If they are pushed through fear to let him through they might as well just make it a coronation, since what if they 'contrive' a bunch of opposition to try to sway the members to vote against him, the horror. > > You don’t think the party is sufficiently split yet? The idea of both our major parties having leaders that a significant number of their own MPs think are not fit for office is not hugely appealing.
----------------------- That was my point. If they decide to go down that route out of fear of their own members voting for him, well, their problems will not be solved because the disconnect between them and their members is the issue. Labour have shown it is not a pleasant experience.
It's also why the Tories do actually have a chance of imploding, remarkably. They are too split, with no path out of this. They have to deliver Brexit to have a chance to recover. Nothing they can do can deliver Brexit without also causing a split. I truly see no route for them to recover until they split, get hammered into opposition, and have to root and branch start again. Yes, parties need to be coalitions, but theirs has passed the point of being workable anymore - for their own good they need to be reduced to their core, then build a coalition back up from that core, not try to hold onto something which Brexit has destroyed.
People will actually be really glad he is coming. It provides an opportunity for us all to compete to see who dislikes him the most, and others can also bemoan what it says about us that he is coming here on a visit (nothing, given he has visited plenty of other places).
> @kle4 said: People will actually be really glad he is coming. It provides an opportunity for us all to compete to see who dislikes him the most, and others can also bemoan what it says about us that he is coming here on a visit (nothing, given he has visited plenty of other places).
It will give lots of people the chance to virtue signal so hard - it will be nauseating.
The one thing that would get to someone like Trump more than any protest would just be to completely ignore him. He would hate that - he is always looking for a reaction.
Perhaps even more surprisingly one of them wasn't the Conservatives*... at least I assume it is the Lib Dem, Brexit Party and Labour leading ones and I haven't missed one...
*Surprising in normal circumstances, probably expected by some at this point.
> @nunuone said: > David Cameron may be the last Tory PM to win a majority. > > Think about that for a second.
And John Major the second last one. Remember 1987 GE very well. I was 20 years old, and crushed by a hefty hefty defeat. They haven't won a large majority since.
Is now a good time for an reminder that there are only two viable end states for the UK? Second class satellite of the European Union or full member. Everything else is noise.
Is now a good time for an reminder that there are only two viable end states for the UK? Second class satellite of the European Union or full member. Everything else is noise.
Bit like Ukraine being a second class satellite of Russia. Baffling why full membership seems to have so little appeal for the Ukrainians.
> It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure.
It could also affect the Tory leadership ballots, which will begin 4 days after the Peterborough result is announced.
Yes it will. My fear (since I have no admiration at all for Farage) is that they are not going to win Peterborough, they are going to smash everyone else into oblivion. I really don't think people in the London bubble have got any idea even now how angry the majority of the country is that they have not done what they were told.
Just so long as they don’t expect Londoners’ taxes to pay for them when, say, our agricultural industry is virtually wiped out following 40% tariffs.
> > It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure.
>
>
>
> It could also affect the Tory leadership ballots, which will begin 4 days after the Peterborough result is announced.
>
> Yes it will. My fear (since I have no admiration at all for Farage) is that they are not going to win Peterborough, they are going to smash everyone else into oblivion. I really don't think people in the London bubble have got any idea even now how angry the majority of the country is that they have not done what they were told.
Unfortunately that ignorance is shared by far too many posters on here as well.
I think you underestimate how much anger there is from Remainers about Brexit as well.
> @dixiedean said: > > @rottenborough said: > > I see Truss has got her reward: policy chief under Bozza. > > That is a disgrace. > I mean, really, it really is.
Which bit? That she actually believes she will have any input?
> @Luckyguy1983 said: > > Bit like Ukraine being a second class satellite of Russia. Baffling why full membership seems to have so little appeal for the Ukrainians.
The Russian Federation isn't a membership organisation.
> > It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure.
>
>
>
> It could also affect the Tory leadership ballots, which will begin 4 days after the Peterborough result is announced.
>
> Yes it will. My fear (since I have no admiration at all for Farage) is that they are not going to win Peterborough, they are going to smash everyone else into oblivion. I really don't think people in the London bubble have got any idea even now how angry the majority of the country is that they have not done what they were told.
Unfortunately that ignorance is shared by far too many posters on here as well.
I think you underestimate how much anger there is from Remainers about Brexit as well.
> @rottenborough said: > > @dixiedean said: > > > @rottenborough said: > > > I see Truss has got her reward: policy chief under Bozza. > > > > That is a disgrace. > > I mean, really, it really is. > > Which bit? That she actually believes she will have any input?
Well yes. And even more if she actually does have influence.
Comments
Maybe this excerpted documentary footage from a historical document may communicate my disdain for the parties.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQCi67CQHXY
There you are. Quite reasonable and rational...
> Even at 20/1 or so Rory Stewart is way too short on BF...
>
> As is Andrea Leadsom. What is she doing at under 10s?!
Yep her odds are strange for someone with precisely 3 public backers so far.
> > @Recidivist said:
>
> > > @Quincel said:
>
> >
>
> > > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now?
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Far from it. We now have to be moving to a second referendum with two separate questions: first, Remain or Leave (as in 2016), followed by (if Leave wins) May’s Deal vs No Deal. There’s simply no other viable way out. And it might just save the Tory party.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Cannot see why the first question (a re-run of the 2016 ref) is acceptable.
>
> >
>
> > Bercow has already made it clear that in parliament a re-introducing of essentially the same bill for approval/rejection is verboten.
>
> >
>
> > And the referendum is an outsourcing of paliament's decision-making. So we also cannot re-ask that question. The only concern is how we leave.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > I think the mandate from the referendum is now way out of date.
>
>
>
> When do you think the government should have invoked article 50?
>
> When they were ready to actually leave. 7-8 years after the referendum maybe. If it was a serious project it would have been necessary to give it a chance of success.
So you actively willed a situation where you would be able to make your claim that the referendum was out of date.
> Is anyone shedding any tears at the collapse in support for the two main parties? Can't say I am particularly.
No
https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1134934550008737794
>
> Gove was the one I was expecting to say that the only chance of a getting a better deal, was to be genuinely prepared to leave without one.
------------
He knows it's not possible to be genuinely prepared.
https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1080891694881665026
> > @The_Taxman said:
>
> > > @Recidivist said:
>
> > > > @Quincel said:
>
> > >
>
> > > > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now?
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > > Far from it. We now have to be moving to a second referendum with two separate questions: first, Remain or Leave (as in 2016), followed by (if Leave wins) May’s Deal vs No Deal. There’s simply no other viable way out. And it might just save the Tory party.
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > > Cannot see why the first question (a re-run of the 2016 ref) is acceptable.
>
> > >
>
> > > Bercow has already made it clear that in parliament a re-introducing of essentially the same bill for approval/rejection is verboten.
>
> > >
>
> > > And the referendum is an outsourcing of paliament's decision-making. So we also cannot re-ask that question. The only concern is how we leave.
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > > I think the mandate from the referendum is now way out of date.
>
> >
>
> > +1 The fundamental point is the best deal is EU membership, to rule that out in any future referendum is counter to the public interest. If people vote to Leave in a second referendum then, I would accept that but given its impact on the lives of British people for generations to come a three way referendum of No Deal, Deal or No Brexit (Remain) should be instigated to bring this matter to a conclusion.
>
> >
>
>
>
> The best deal is certainly not EUI membership. And it is your insistence on this point and on trying to reverse the referendum result that is making a NO Deal all the more likely. Your fanaticism is just as damaging to the country as that of the ERG. More so in fact because what you are destroying is the basic belief in democracy.
>
> No he isn't. Democracy is fine. Brexit is the problem.
You are another with your head buried in the sand.
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > @DavidL said:
> > > > Really disappointing game. Spurs played the better football but could play till midnight without scoring. Kane a total waste of space. Liverpool playing the worst I have seen this season but much more clinical in front of goal.
> > >
> > > Good summary of a very poor game.
> >
> > Kane and Firmino were not match fit..
> >
> > Spurs had their only chances when Lucas Moura came on, should have started.
> >
> >
>
> Kane strikes me as a player with an oversized ego who thinks it is all about him. I think England are better without him as well. He should not have been on the pitch.
Does he ever produce on the big occasions ?
> > @AndyJS said:
> > Is anyone shedding any tears at the collapse in support for the two main parties? Can't say I am particularly.
>
> No
Nope. It really is true that Leave/Remain identity is now stronger than the old party tags.
If you want another go you need another vote.
>
> You are another with your head buried in the sand.
---------------
It's rich to accuse people of destroying faith in democracy when you supported a decades-long campaign to delegitimise something that was the product of our democratic system.
> > @The_Taxman said:
> > > @Recidivist said:
> > > > @Quincel said:
> > >
> > > > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now?
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Far from it. We now have to be moving to a second referendum with two separate questions: first, Remain or Leave (as in 2016), followed by (if Leave wins) May’s Deal vs No Deal. There’s simply no other viable way out. And it might just save the Tory party.
> > >
> > >
> > > Cannot see why the first question (a re-run of the 2016 ref) is acceptable.
> > >
> > > Bercow has already made it clear that in parliament a re-introducing of essentially the same bill for approval/rejection is verboten.
> > >
> > > And the referendum is an outsourcing of paliament's decision-making. So we also cannot re-ask that question. The only concern is how we leave.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > I think the mandate from the referendum is now way out of date.
> >
> > +1 The fundamental point is the best deal is EU membership, to rule that out in any future referendum is counter to the public interest. If people vote to Leave in a second referendum then, I would accept that but given its impact on the lives of British people for generations to come a three way referendum of No Deal, Deal or No Brexit (Remain) should be instigated to bring this matter to a conclusion.
> >
>
> The best deal is certainly not EUI membership. And it is your insistence on this point and on trying to reverse the referendum result that is making a NO Deal all the more likely. Your fanaticism is just as damaging to the country as that of the ERG. More so in fact because what you are destroying is the basic belief in democracy.
lol - The result of the referendum in 2016 was just a vote. I am talking about the fundamental economics of such a decision. Your someone who wants a deal, that is a respectable decision but for an intelligent man I can never understand why you harp on about democracy but fail to vote in local elections and seem to think that being aligned with a deal to the EU with no say or democratic input is democratic.
On a passing note I have suggested you don't make comments personal in the past, calling me a fanatic for stating the bleeding obvious is an odd way to behave. Have you never seen the economic output graphs associated with the various forms of Brexit? You obviously understand the implications of each level of detachment. Have you ever thought about the implications for democracy by executing Brexit as non-European Immigrants will replace immigrants from Europe. The economy will be smaller, jobs will be scarcer and opportunity will be harder to find....
Con 22.9%, Lab 27.4%, LD 16.7%, Brex 20.9%, Grn 6.1%
Con 202
Lab 299
LD 32
Brex 41
Grn 1
SNP 53
Lab minority government 27 short of majority
Brexit Party starting to ramp up seats at Tory expense.
> This sudden ramping of TBP's chances in Peterborough is funny; they got barely more votes on the 23rd than UKIP got in 2014...
They got 38% at the Euros, miles ahead of everyone else. That was about 4 weeks ago.
> It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure.
It could also affect the Tory leadership ballots, which will begin 4 days after the Peterborough result is announced.
> > @Recidivist said:
>
> > > @The_Taxman said:
>
> >
>
> > > > @Recidivist said:
>
> >
>
> > > > > @Quincel said:
>
> >
>
> > > >
>
> >
>
> > > > > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely?
>
> >
>
> > > >
>
> >
>
> > > >
>
> >
>
> > > >
>
> >
>
> > > > Far from it.
>
> >
>
> > > >
>
> >
>
> > > >
>
> >
>
> > > > Cannot see why the first question (a re-run of the 2016 ref) is acceptable.
>
> >
>
> > > >
>
> >
>
> > > > Bercow has already made it clear that in parliament a re-introducing of essentially the same bill for approval/rejection is verboten.
>
> >
>
> > > >
>
> >
>
> > > > And the referendum is an outsourcing of paliament's decision-making. So we also cannot re-ask that question. The only concern is how we leave.
>
> >
>
> > > >
>
> >
>
> > > >
>
> >
>
> > > >
>
> >
>
> > > > I think the mandate from the referendum is now way out of date.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > +1 The fundamental point is the best deal is EU membership, to rule that out in any future referendum is counter to the public interest. If people vote to Leave in a second referendum then, I would accept that but given its impact on the lives of British people for generations to come a three way referendum of No Deal, Deal or No Brexit (Remain) should be instigated to bring this matter to a conclusion.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > The best deal is certainly not EUI membership. And it is your insistence on this point and on trying to reverse the referendum result that is making a NO Deal all the more likely. Your fanaticism is just as damaging to the country as that of the ERG. More so in fact because what you are destroying is the basic belief in democracy.
>
> >
>
> > No he isn't. Democracy is fine. Brexit is the problem.
>
>
>
> You are another with your head buried in the sand.
>
> No I'm not. You are.
LOL. You are the one who seems to think that all we have to do is reverse the result of the referendum and everything will be fine. Like I said you have your head firmly buried in the sand. I am afraid you are in for a very nasty shock if you get your way.
> Liz Truss goes public with Boris.
>
> https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1134934550008737794
Two Sinners uniting?
https://twitter.com/mKiK808/status/1134853853126336512
Only miles ahead because the remain vote was split, rather less likely in FPTP. Lastly some of the best places for them are in the part of Peterborough outside the constituency; the Ortons and Standground.
> lol - The result of the referendum in 2016 was just a vote. I am talking about the fundamental economics of such a decision. Your someone who wants a deal, that is a respectable decision but for an intelligent man I can never understand why you harp on about democracy but fail to vote in local elections and seem to think that being aligned with a deal to the EU with no say or democratic input is democratic.
>
> On a passing note I have suggested you don't make comments personal in the past, calling me a fanatic for stating the bleeding obvious is an odd way to behave. Have you never seen the economic output graphs associated with the various forms of Brexit? You obviously understand the implications of each level of detachment. Have you ever thought about the implications for democracy by executing Brexit as non-European Immigrants will replace immigrants from Europe. The economy will be smaller, jobs will be scarcer and opportunity will be harder to find....
You are wittering on about fundamental economics and I am talking about fundamental democracy.
If you overturn that vote you show everyone who voted Brexit that democracy has failed and is no longer fit for purpose. Why should any of us bother with democracy if whatever we vote for can just be ignored and overturned by the politicians. That is the message you are sending even if you don't mean to. It is certainly the message that millions of people will hear and which the very people you oppose will use to justify whatever they decide to do. You will break this country completely. Not Brexit. You and all those Remoaners who refused to accept a democratic vote because you only care about democracy when you win.
Oh and I did vote in the local elections. I spoiled my ballot which is just as valid a vote as any of the scumbag politicians you will have voted for.
They can change their minds. Or not.
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> >
> > You are another with your head buried in the sand.
> ---------------
>
> It's rich to accuse people of destroying faith in democracy when you supported a decades-long campaign to delegitimise something that was the product of our democratic system.
A particularly stupid argument from you this evening. One of your most idiotic I would suggest. I assume that means you are one of those who believes that criticising a political institution should be illegal.
> > @DavidL said:
>
> > It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure.
>
>
>
> It could also affect the Tory leadership ballots, which will begin 4 days after the Peterborough result is announced.
>
> Yes it will. My fear (since I have no admiration at all for Farage) is that they are not going to win Peterborough, they are going to smash everyone else into oblivion. I really don't think people in the London bubble have got any idea even now how angry the majority of the country is that they have not done what they were told.
Unfortunately that ignorance is shared by far too many posters on here as well.
> > @brokenwheel said:
> > This sudden ramping of TBP's chances in Peterborough is funny; they got barely more votes on the 23rd than UKIP got in 2014...
>
> They got 38% at the Euros, miles ahead of everyone else. That was about 4 weeks ago.
They got 31%, 12% ahead of the Lib Dems.
I agree they are highly likely to win Peterborough, because not only are they beating the UKIP vote share from 2014 but that switch is much more resilient and based on political identity (people are Leavers in a much deeper way than they were Eurosceptic).
> > @DavidL said:
>
> > It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure.
>
>
>
> It could also affect the Tory leadership ballots, which will begin 4 days after the Peterborough result is announced.
>
> Yes it will. My fear (since I have no admiration at all for Farage) is that they are not going to win Peterborough, they are going to smash everyone else into oblivion. I really don't think people in the London bubble have got any idea even now how angry the majority of the country is that they have not done what they were told.
That cannot be true, people on here have repeatedly said, what the worst all these old people could do? Strike by not using their bus pass or claiming their free tv license. That they continue to believe that by just cancelling brexit, everything will carry on as before and we all put it down to stupid northerners not knowing what’s good for them.
> > @The_Taxman said:
> > lol - The result of the referendum in 2016 was just a vote. I am talking about the fundamental economics of such a decision. Your someone who wants a deal, that is a respectable decision but for an intelligent man I can never understand why you harp on about democracy but fail to vote in local elections and seem to think that being aligned with a deal to the EU with no say or democratic input is democratic.
> >
> > On a passing note I have suggested you don't make comments personal in the past, calling me a fanatic for stating the bleeding obvious is an odd way to behave. Have you never seen the economic output graphs associated with the various forms of Brexit? You obviously understand the implications of each level of detachment. Have you ever thought about the implications for democracy by executing Brexit as non-European Immigrants will replace immigrants from Europe. The economy will be smaller, jobs will be scarcer and opportunity will be harder to find....
>
> You are wittering on about fundamental economics and I am talking about fundamental democracy.
>
> If you overturn that vote you show everyone who voted Brexit that democracy has failed and is no longer fit for purpose. Why should any of us bother with democracy if whatever we vote for can just be ignored and overturned by the politicians. That is the message you are sending even if you don't mean to. It is certainly the message that millions of people will hear and which the very people you oppose will use to justify whatever they decide to do. You will break this country completely. Not Brexit. You and all those Remoaners who refused to accept a democratic vote because you only care about democracy when you win.
>
> Oh and I did vote in the local elections. I spoiled my ballot which is just as valid a vote as any of the scumbag politicians you will have voted for.
I don't know why you are so vociferous this evening. It looks like you will be getting Brexit albeit one without a deal. You think it will be a success - I disagree. But in a democracy people can campaign on any issue they like.
> https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1134930038728667136
Looks like the only thing that can stop Boris is Boris now.
Leadsom: "Discussions will culminate in a UK/EU summit, in September, in Belfast and Dublin, where the EU Council and proposed Commission will be invited to agree which measures we will all accept, to ensure a properly managed exit."
If Brexit was cancelled there would be an enormous sigh of relief - and everyone would have forgotten all about it in a few days.
Another point, UKIP never won a by-election where the candidate wasn't a sitting MP. It's clear incumbency gave them a massive boost. Just look at the GE 2015 results in the seats they won in by elections and compare to their share in other target seats. If TBP didn't get much more votes here than UKIP did it seems unlikely they will do it here.
#mcvey
I'm £300 green if they accept that when she resigns on June 7, it means she ceases to be leader (I'll take the risk that she changes her mind). But if they may not mean that, then I'll cash out at £86 green.
> > @Quincel said:
> > Even at 20/1 or so Rory Stewart is way too short on BF...
> >
> > As is Andrea Leadsom. What is she doing at under 10s?!
>
> Yep her odds are strange for someone with precisely 3 public backers so far.
It's a 12 horse race and they are joint 10th (Leadsom) and joint 11th (Stewart), and yet she's 3rd favourite with the bookies! Madness. No particular evidence that she'll pick up lots of support with the members, and loads of evidence he won't.
For all the reminders we are rightly making about upsets in Tory leadership elections, we should recall that last time the order of MPs support was unchanged from the first ballot onwards. 5th place got knocked out, 4th place withdrew, 3rd place got knocked out next, 2nd place withdrew. There was no sudden late swing. With many more candidates I expect there will be a bit more intrigue and interesting second (and third, and fourth) preferences - but to expect people at the back of the pack to get anywhere seems to be based on nothing much. Furthermore, though more MPs voted than publicly endorsed, the order of public endorsements to votes in the first ballot matched perfectly 1st to 5th (and the size of the gaps not bad either).
And the first ballot is barely a week away. When are the outsiders going to turn it around? And why are two or three of them considered decent chances?
> > @DavidL said:
>
> > > @DavidL said:
>
> >
>
> > > It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > It could also affect the Tory leadership ballots, which will begin 4 days after the Peterborough result is announced.
>
> >
>
> > Yes it will. My fear (since I have no admiration at all for Farage) is that they are not going to win Peterborough, they are going to smash everyone else into oblivion. I really don't think people in the London bubble have got any idea even now how angry the majority of the country is that they have not done what they were told.
>
>
>
> Unfortunately that ignorance is shared by far too many posters on here as well.
>
> I'm not in the London bubble. I only visit the place for protest marches nowadays.
>
> If Brexit was cancelled there would be an enormous sigh of relief - and everyone would have forgotten all about it in a few days.
That might quite literally be the stupidest thing I have read on PB, and I was here when Stewart Jackson used to post.
> It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure.
Yvette knows best.
> > @AndyJS said:
>
> > > @brokenwheel said:
>
> > > This sudden ramping of TBP's chances in Peterborough is funny; they got barely more votes on the 23rd than UKIP got in 2014...
>
> >
>
> > They got 38% at the Euros, miles ahead of everyone else. That was about 4 weeks ago.
>
>
>
> They got 31%, 12% ahead of the Lib Dems.
>
>
>
> I agree they are highly likely to win Peterborough, because not only are they beating the UKIP vote share from 2014 but that switch is much more resilient and based on political identity (people are Leavers in a much deeper way than they were Eurosceptic).
>
> He's referring to the result for the borough not nationally.
>
> Another point, UKIP never won a by-election where the candidate wasn't a sitting MP. If they didn't get much more votes here than UKIP did it seems unlikely they will do it here.
Ah yes, good point.
Surely the key difference is how split all the other votes are and how badly the big two are doing? 30% could win the by-election, and Labour are the main threat. 30%+ looks much more achievable now than 5 years ago and Labour look awful. If it was a strong Lib Dem second place last time I'd worry for TBP, but now?
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1134930038728667136
>
>
> Looks like the only thing that can stop Boris is Boris now.
Pretty much inconceivable that Tory MPs could contrive to keep him off the ballot in the face of polling like this.
> > @DavidL said:
>
> > > @DavidL said:
>
> >
>
> > > It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > It could also affect the Tory leadership ballots, which will begin 4 days after the Peterborough result is announced.
>
> >
>
> > Yes it will. My fear (since I have no admiration at all for Farage) is that they are not going to win Peterborough, they are going to smash everyone else into oblivion. I really don't think people in the London bubble have got any idea even now how angry the majority of the country is that they have not done what they were told.
>
>
>
> Unfortunately that ignorance is shared by far too many posters on here as well.
>
> I'm not in the London bubble. I only visit the place for protest marches nowadays.
>
> If Brexit was cancelled there would be an enormous sigh of relief - and everyone would have forgotten all about it in a few days.
LOL - right
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1134930038728667136
> >
> >
> > Looks like the only thing that can stop Boris is Boris now.
>
> Pretty much inconceivable that Tory MPs could contrive to keep him off the ballot in the face of polling like this.
I am surprised how poorly Boris is doing in the MPs endorsements. Last time he was miles ahead.
I suspect you are right and he'll make it through, but I personally really disagree with the logic. The purpose of the MPs ballot prior to the membership is that the MPs act as gatekeepers - if they are influenced in either direction by membership polling they aren't doing the job properly imho. We've seen with Labour the reason for the MP phase of the process: the leader has to have broad support of the parliamentary party. If MPs are going to start rubber stamping the members choice that is wrong.
But again, that's just my opinion on what they should do. Not what I think they will do. I wouldn't be shocked if Boris was eliminated after another Leave candidate unified 2nd prefs but I don't expect it. Ultimately though, we need to recall how unpredictable the switching can be. It's a load of personal dynamics and secret promises/threats we cannot possibly know about from our position.
> It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure.
>
---------
If there were an MV4, the Brexit Party MP would be voting against it.
> > @DavidL said:
> > > @DavidL said:
> >
> > > It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure.
> >
> >
> >
> > It could also affect the Tory leadership ballots, which will begin 4 days after the Peterborough result is announced.
> >
> > Yes it will. My fear (since I have no admiration at all for Farage) is that they are not going to win Peterborough, they are going to smash everyone else into oblivion. I really don't think people in the London bubble have got any idea even now how angry the majority of the country is that they have not done what they were told.
>
> Unfortunately that ignorance is shared by far too many posters on here as well.
Case in point the poster who claims if Brexit cancelled it will be forgotten about after a couple of days.
> > @Recidivist said:
> > > @DavidL said:
> >
> > > > @DavidL said:
> >
> > >
> >
> > > > It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure.
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > It could also affect the Tory leadership ballots, which will begin 4 days after the Peterborough result is announced.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Yes it will. My fear (since I have no admiration at all for Farage) is that they are not going to win Peterborough, they are going to smash everyone else into oblivion. I really don't think people in the London bubble have got any idea even now how angry the majority of the country is that they have not done what they were told.
> >
> >
> >
> > Unfortunately that ignorance is shared by far too many posters on here as well.
> >
> > I'm not in the London bubble. I only visit the place for protest marches nowadays.
> >
> > If Brexit was cancelled there would be an enormous sigh of relief - and everyone would have forgotten all about it in a few days.
>
> That might quite literally be the stupidest thing I have read on PB, and I was here when Stewart Jackson used to post.
LMAO
> > @DavidL said:
> > It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure.
> >
> ---------
>
> If there were an MV4, the Brexit Party MP would be voting against it.
I know. It’s why I voted Tory rather than TBP in the Euros. But hopefully the other MPs will realise it is the last chance saloon.
> > @DavidL said:
>
> > It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure.
>
>
>
> It could also affect the Tory leadership ballots, which will begin 4 days after the Peterborough result is announced.
>
> Yes it will. My fear (since I have no admiration at all for Farage) is that they are not going to win Peterborough, they are going to smash everyone else into oblivion. I really don't think people in the London bubble have got any idea even now how angry the majority of the country is that they have not done what they were told.
>
> As slightly more of the country continue to think Brexit was s mistake than think it a good idea, the majority of the country probably aren't angry.
On the contrary, many of them are angry with the prospect of leaving the EU just like many of the rest are angry with the prospect we might not.
People don't have to actually be losing to be angry at having something taken away from them. They just have to think they are.
> So... We’re still totally screwed.
That’s what happens when you rely on Spurs.
> > @DavidL said:
>
> > It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure.
>
>
>
> It could also affect the Tory leadership ballots, which will begin 4 days after the Peterborough result is announced.
>
> Yes it will. My fear (since I have no admiration at all for Farage) is that they are not going to win Peterborough, they are going to smash everyone else into oblivion. I really don't think people in the London bubble have got any idea even now how angry the majority of the country is that they have not done what they were told.
Do you think that would help the campaign of a No Dealer like Dominic Raab with Tory MPs?
I just hope tonight wasn't as as good as it gets for Spurs and we might get a trophy ourselves before too much longer. What a ride that was.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > > @brokenwheel said:
> > > This sudden ramping of TBP's chances in Peterborough is funny; they got barely more votes on the 23rd than UKIP got in 2014...
> >
> > They got 38% at the Euros, miles ahead of everyone else. That was about 4 weeks ago.
>
> They got 31%, 12% ahead of the Lib Dems.
>
> I agree they are highly likely to win Peterborough, because not only are they beating the UKIP vote share from 2014 but that switch is much more resilient and based on political identity (people are Leavers in a much deeper way than they were Eurosceptic).
I don't know where the 31% figure comes from. They got 38% in the district and the experts I've read have said there wouldn't be much difference in their share of the vote in the constituency, not more than 2%.
> > @DavidL said:
> > > @DavidL said:
> >
> > > It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure.
> >
> >
> >
> > It could also affect the Tory leadership ballots, which will begin 4 days after the Peterborough result is announced.
> >
> > Yes it will. My fear (since I have no admiration at all for Farage) is that they are not going to win Peterborough, they are going to smash everyone else into oblivion. I really don't think people in the London bubble have got any idea even now how angry the majority of the country is that they have not done what they were told.
>
> Do you think that would help the campaign of a No Dealer like Dominic Raab with Tory MPs?
Yes and he’s a long, long way down my list of preferred candidates. Indeed it’s only people like Leadsom that has him off the bottom.
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1134930038728667136
> >
> >
> > Looks like the only thing that can stop Boris is Boris now.
>
> Pretty much inconceivable that Tory MPs could contrive to keep him off the ballot in the face of polling like this.
------------------------------
If they don't think he is suitable then that will not have changed. Even for politicians their judgements and values won't mean shit if they ignore all their misgivings and get him on the ballot when they would not otherwise. It's not 'contriving' to keep him off the ballot if they don't want him, it's the whole point not to let through those they do not like for the job.
If they are pushed through fear to let him through they might as well just make it a coronation, since what if they 'contrive' a bunch of opposition to try to sway the members to vote against him, the horror.
> > @Quincel said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > @brokenwheel said:
> > > > This sudden ramping of TBP's chances in Peterborough is funny; they got barely more votes on the 23rd than UKIP got in 2014...
> > >
> > > They got 38% at the Euros, miles ahead of everyone else. That was about 4 weeks ago.
> >
> > They got 31%, 12% ahead of the Lib Dems.
> >
> > I agree they are highly likely to win Peterborough, because not only are they beating the UKIP vote share from 2014 but that switch is much more resilient and based on political identity (people are Leavers in a much deeper way than they were Eurosceptic).
>
> I don't know where the 31% figure comes from. They got 38% in the district and the experts I've read have said there wouldn't be much difference in their share of the vote in the constituency, not more than 2%.
31% was their national share, I misunderstood you.
> > @DavidL said:
> > It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure.
>
> Yvette knows best.
It will be interesting to see how it pans out with the potential new BP MP.
He seems like he may be his own man, given his age, business acumen and experience.
Be careful what you wish for Nigel.
> > @DavidL said:
> > It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure.
>
> Yvette knows best.
Yvette would lose her seat to the Brexit Party on tonight's polling
> It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure.
----------------------------
Why wouldn't they? They can easily find reasons as to why Peterborough should be ignored - add up the remain parties' share, a one off situation, it's a low turnout in a single seat, the polls are more supportive, Brexit is just plain wrong, take your pick - so the idea they will pause to think about the implications is just plain bizarre.
They have been more than capable of estimating what sort of reaction there would be to not leaving. Half of them at least are perfectly content with that. And given the shifts to more strongly remain parties, as well as no deal Brexit parties, there's not a single reason to think, outside of mythical leave seat Lab MPs, that anything will change. And even that requires the Tories to try something again which will get at least the same support they had last time, which is no guarantee now.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > > @DavidL said:
> > > It will surely now be a shock if TBP don't win Peterborough. How will that affect the HoC? It is only 1 seat but those MPs whose constituencies voted leave (by far the majority) will surely pause to think about the implications. Will they hold their nerve and continue to defy the expressed wish of the electorate? I'm not sure.
> >
> > Yvette knows best.
>
> It will be interesting to see how it pans out with the potential new BP MP.
>
> He seems like he may be his own man, given his age, business acumen and experience.
>
> Be careful what you wish for Nigel.
-----------------------
That would take a while to come to a head though.
> > @DavidL said:
> > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > @Scott_P said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1134930038728667136
> > >
> > >
> > > Looks like the only thing that can stop Boris is Boris now.
> >
> > Pretty much inconceivable that Tory MPs could contrive to keep him off the ballot in the face of polling like this.
>
> ------------------------------
> If they don't think he is suitable then that will not have changed. Even for politicians their judgements and values won't mean shit if they ignore all their misgivings and get him on the ballot when they would not otherwise. It's not 'contriving' to keep him off the ballot if they don't want him, it's the whole point not to let through those they do not like for the job.
>
> If they are pushed through fear to let him through they might as well just make it a coronation, since what if they 'contrive' a bunch of opposition to try to sway the members to vote against him, the horror.
You don’t think the party is sufficiently split yet? The idea of both our major parties having leaders that a significant number of their own MPs think are not fit for office is not hugely appealing.
> The last 3 polls have had 3 different parties in first place. Never seen that before in British politics.
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019
Also: Don't think we've ever had a poll with 4 parties on 10% before, and we've had several now with one showing 5 parties above that.
> The last 3 polls have had 3 different parties in first place. Never seen that before in British politics.
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019
Volatile...
What happens after the ballot - that is another matter entirely. I don't see how the new leader will keep everyone on board.
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @DavidL said:
> > > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > > @Scott_P said:
> > > > > https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1134930038728667136
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Looks like the only thing that can stop Boris is Boris now.
> > >
> > > Pretty much inconceivable that Tory MPs could contrive to keep him off the ballot in the face of polling like this.
> >
> > ------------------------------
> > If they don't think he is suitable then that will not have changed. Even for politicians their judgements and values won't mean shit if they ignore all their misgivings and get him on the ballot when they would not otherwise. It's not 'contriving' to keep him off the ballot if they don't want him, it's the whole point not to let through those they do not like for the job.
> >
> > If they are pushed through fear to let him through they might as well just make it a coronation, since what if they 'contrive' a bunch of opposition to try to sway the members to vote against him, the horror.
>
> You don’t think the party is sufficiently split yet? The idea of both our major parties having leaders that a significant number of their own MPs think are not fit for office is not hugely appealing.
Corbyn allover again?
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @DavidL said:
> > > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > > @Scott_P said:
> > > > > https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1134930038728667136
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Looks like the only thing that can stop Boris is Boris now.
> > >
> > > Pretty much inconceivable that Tory MPs could contrive to keep him off the ballot in the face of polling like this.
> >
> > ------------------------------
> > If they don't think he is suitable then that will not have changed. Even for politicians their judgements and values won't mean shit if they ignore all their misgivings and get him on the ballot when they would not otherwise. It's not 'contriving' to keep him off the ballot if they don't want him, it's the whole point not to let through those they do not like for the job.
> >
> > If they are pushed through fear to let him through they might as well just make it a coronation, since what if they 'contrive' a bunch of opposition to try to sway the members to vote against him, the horror.
>
> You don’t think the party is sufficiently split yet? The idea of both our major parties having leaders that a significant number of their own MPs think are not fit for office is not hugely appealing.
-----------------------
That was my point. If they decide to go down that route out of fear of their own members voting for him, well, their problems will not be solved because the disconnect between them and their members is the issue. Labour have shown it is not a pleasant experience.
It's also why the Tories do actually have a chance of imploding, remarkably. They are too split, with no path out of this. They have to deliver Brexit to have a chance to recover. Nothing they can do can deliver Brexit without also causing a split. I truly see no route for them to recover until they split, get hammered into opposition, and have to root and branch start again. Yes, parties need to be coalitions, but theirs has passed the point of being workable anymore - for their own good they need to be reduced to their core, then build a coalition back up from that core, not try to hold onto something which Brexit has destroyed.
Good night all.
London mayor hits out at US president before his state visit to Britain"
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jun/01/donald-trump-like-20th-century-fascist-says-sadiq-khan
> https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9200375/andrea-leadsom-no-deal-brexit-steps-opinion/
>
> Leadsom: "Discussions will culminate in a UK/EU summit, in September, in Belfast and Dublin, where the EU Council and proposed Commission will be invited to agree which measures we will all accept, to ensure a properly managed exit."
>
Three steps to Leadsom ...
Think about that for a second.
People will actually be really glad he is coming. It provides an opportunity for us all to compete to see who dislikes him the most, and others can also bemoan what it says about us that he is coming here on a visit (nothing, given he has visited plenty of other places).
It will give lots of people the chance to virtue signal so hard - it will be nauseating.
The one thing that would get to someone like Trump more than any protest would just be to completely ignore him. He would hate that - he is always looking for a reaction.
Ignore him and he won't know how to react
*Surprising in normal circumstances, probably expected by some at this point.
> David Cameron may be the last Tory PM to win a majority.
>
> Think about that for a second.
And John Major the second last one. Remember 1987 GE very well. I was 20 years old, and crushed by a hefty hefty defeat. They haven't won a large majority since.
I bet no one else would have thought of that.
https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1134931369740636161?s=20
> I see Truss has got her reward: policy chief under Bozza.
That is a disgrace.
I mean, really, it really is.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > I see Truss has got her reward: policy chief under Bozza.
>
> That is a disgrace.
> I mean, really, it really is.
Which bit? That she actually believes she will have any input?
> David Cameron may be the last Tory PM to win a majority.
>
> Think about that for a second.
Maybe. But I quite like the analogy I saw on here a few days - the Tories are like cockroaches.
Somehow or other they endure and they survive...
>
> Bit like Ukraine being a second class satellite of Russia. Baffling why full membership seems to have so little appeal for the Ukrainians.
The Russian Federation isn't a membership organisation.
> > @dixiedean said:
> > > @rottenborough said:
> > > I see Truss has got her reward: policy chief under Bozza.
> >
> > That is a disgrace.
> > I mean, really, it really is.
>
> Which bit? That she actually believes she will have any input?
Well yes. And even more if she actually does have influence.