> Ok so everyone is watching the build up to the football but I am still claiming my first.
>
> I’m not.
>
> I am however looking forward to Montalbano tonight: sexy Italian detective, shots of Sicily, the Mediterranean, delicious food (Montalbano spends a lot of time in restaurants) and some vague plot that no-one really cares about. Mmmmm.........
>
> PS I strongly suspect that the Peterborough Brexit candidate is the brother of a trader I have had lots of dealings with over the years.
>
> I hope he doesn’t share his brother’s ethics.
___________________
On a slightly related note I was continuing yesterday in my quest to make a definitive pasta 'ncasciata, a baked macaroni dish with aubergines and cheese that appears regularly and somewhat mystically on Montalbano. The recipes for this dish vary widely and my results so far have fallen short of the Dish of the Gods that these recipes imply. I picked up a Galician cheese in Lidl that I thought might substitute for caciocavallo and tried again. Improving but not quite there yet, I think.
We used to have these baked dishes on Xmas Day - different varieties of pasta al forno. Scrumptious.
I am though trying to avoid pasta at the moment as I am embarking on another (probably doomed) attempt to lose some weight. I have given up bread and salami. But pasta - that is hard for me. I adore the stuff. And calamari fritti and arancini di riso - another Sicilian speciality - are hardly low calorie alternatives.....
A summer of tomato salads beckons.
Last night my son made a delicious chicken soup with prunes and leeks. I was tempted to tweet Rory Stewart and invite him round so that he could get at least one nourishing meal inside him.
Expecting LDs to drop back towards 15ish. Will the Faragists do the same?
I think most LDs would have been happy with 15% a couple of months ago. It's possible the YouGov poll is an outlier and/or this is an outlier.
There's enormous volatility out there at present so all polls should be treated with even more than the usual bucket load of salt. Trying to figure out where this leaves Peterborough for instance is well beyond my purview and I wouldn't be getting involved from a punting angle.
Labour are down 18 points from 2017 and the Conservatives are down 25. As a comparison the February 1974 numbers showed Labour down 6 and the Conservatives sown 8.5 and that was pretty seismic for the time.
Cameron was both seriously bright and evidence that brightness isn’t everything. But it’s a good start. Corbyn is just too stupid to be PM. It’s as simple as that.
I'm waiting for the memoirs, and maybe the history. Cameron was the worst prime minister since Lord North, despite being highly intelligent and having no apparent ideological fixations. I genuinely am at a loss to understand how it all went pear-shaped.
It's not rocket science - he gave in to pressure to hold a referendum, an easy enough thing to do but misguided as we now see, and he, like most people, underestimated the strength of feeling in the country, with all that 'no one cares about the EU, it is not listed as a major concern' type talk that made Cameron, like most, overly confident.
Forget referendums. Forget Brexit and Sindyref. There was also universal credit and the NHS reforms and other policies that Cameron's team had spent years preparing in Opposition and the point is not just they went disastrously wrong but that Cameron and the rest of the Cabinet seemed genuinely shocked by their own policies. There is the story that controversial legal aid changes were scrapped only after one of Cameron's constituents turned up at his surgery and explained why they could not work. It is inexplicable. Was Cameron our most incurious prime minister? Was it his cronyism that left him in a bubble? What was it?
Off topic: 'Meat free May' came to an end 2 days early thanks to Wor Lass coming home with a stack of meat pies from the butchers in Ilkley. Still, 29 days was a decent run.
Time to draft some "Only Labour can stop Farage!" leaflets. It may turn out to be true, as we may be about to see (regardless of who is 1st and 2nd) in Peterborough.
We have. I agree with you. @Richard_Nabavi has a rather well-argued case disagreeing with me. And now we have had this conversation, we can go do something else...
> @matt said: > > @Sunil_Prasannan said: > > > > @Sunil_Prasannan said: > > > > > > > Are they not showing it on ordinary TV? > > > > > > > > > > > > No BT sport > > > > > > Bugger... > > > > That's the free market for you. > > If it were Ajax vs PSG the audience in the UK would be derisory. BT’s gamble has paid off. iTV or BBC could have bid to win.
> @NickPalmer said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @brendan16 said: > > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134897907319132160 > > > > > > > > > > > > Will it get as much media coverage and general excitement as the one showing the Liberal Democrats ahead earlier this week? > > > > Electoral calculas. The Brexit party 18 short of a majority > > > > Cat among pigeons time > > Time to draft some "Only Labour can stop Farage!" leaflets. It may turn out to be true, as we may be about to see (regardless of who is 1st and 2nd) in Peterborough.
What's interesting in the recent poll is that the BXP and CON figures seem largely similar to the other shock recent poll from yougov, but as in all the euro polls the big difference is in LD vs Lab support. In the Euros it turned out that the ones favouring LDs were correct, but of course we've also seen elections where Lab outperformed polling (2010,2017).
> > > Will it get as much media coverage and general excitement as the one showing the Liberal Democrats ahead earlier this week?
> >
> > Electoral calculas. The Brexit party 18 short of a majority
> >
> > Cat among pigeons time
>
> Time to draft some "Only Labour can stop Farage!" leaflets. It may turn out to be true, as we may be about to see (regardless of who is 1st and 2nd) in Peterborough.
I think the Lib Dems have a better claim
A little bit of yellow/green tactical voting or alliance should do the trick nicely.
Off topic: 'Meat free May' came to an end 2 days early thanks to Wor Lass coming home with a stack of meat pies from the butchers in Ilkley. Still, 29 days was a decent run.
June is no fizzy drinks.
Pah, I've just had a meat-free 27 and-a-half years
> @SandyRentool said: > Off topic: 'Meat free May' came to an end 2 days early thanks to Wor Lass coming home with a stack of meat pies from the butchers in Ilkley. Still, 29 days was a decent run. > > June is no fizzy drinks.
Mine is:
No smoking January No smoking February No smoking March No smoking April No smoking May No smoking June No smoking July No smoking August No smoking September No smoking October No smoking November No smoking December
> @nunuone said: > > @matt said: > > > @Sunil_Prasannan said: > > > > > > @Sunil_Prasannan said: > > > > > > > > > > > Are they not showing it on ordinary TV? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > No BT sport > > > > > > > > > > Bugger... > > > > > > > > That's the free market for you. > > > > If it were Ajax vs PSG the audience in the UK would be derisory. BT’s gamble has paid off. iTV or BBC could have bid to win. > > BT are showing the match for free on YouTube.
> Off topic: 'Meat free May' came to an end 2 days early thanks to Wor Lass coming home with a stack of meat pies from the butchers in Ilkley. Still, 29 days was a decent run.
Placing bets this week on the Tories OR Labour to win most seats next election will look in 12 months' time either brave and brilliant or hilarious with hindsight.
Off topic: 'Meat free May' came to an end 2 days early thanks to Wor Lass coming home with a stack of meat pies from the butchers in Ilkley. Still, 29 days was a decent run.
June is no fizzy drinks.
Pah, I've just had a meat-free 27 and-a-half years
I have six meat-free days each week and live in fear of doctors discovering too much fish causes impotence.
> @Sunil_Prasannan said: > Off topic: 'Meat free May' came to an end 2 days early thanks to Wor Lass coming home with a stack of meat pies from the butchers in Ilkley. Still, 29 days was a decent run. > > > > June is no fizzy drinks. > > Pah, I've just had a meat-free 27 and-a-half years
> @another_richard said: > > @SandyRentool said: > > Off topic: 'Meat free May' came to an end 2 days early thanks to Wor Lass coming home with a stack of meat pies from the butchers in Ilkley. Still, 29 days was a decent run. > > > > June is no fizzy drinks. > > Mine is: > > No smoking January > No smoking February > No smoking March > No smoking April > No smoking May > No smoking June > No smoking July > No smoking August > No smoking September > No smoking October > No smoking November > No smoking December > > Does that count ?
15 years for me and never one regret. Thousands of pounds saved plus big health benefits
> > Off topic: 'Meat free May' came to an end 2 days early thanks to Wor Lass coming home with a stack of meat pies from the butchers in Ilkley. Still, 29 days was a decent run.
> >
> > June is no fizzy drinks.
>
> Mine is:
>
> No smoking January
> No smoking February
> No smoking March
> No smoking April
> No smoking May
> No smoking June
> No smoking July
> No smoking August
> No smoking September
> No smoking October
> No smoking November
> No smoking December
>
> Does that count ?
15 years for me and never one regret. Thousands of pounds saved plus big health benefits
Stopping smoking is a no brainer
You’re right. I gave up 19 years ago last month, can’t believe I ever started. Complete madness. Amazing it used to be allowed in so many public places. Tube trains and planes!! 🙈
> @Dadge said: > > @Toms said: > > Abstractly, I wonder whether there is a correlation between football zealotry and "brexitism". > > Well, duh. One of the most prominent alt-right groups is the Football Lads Alliance.
Tribalism I guess. It may be the civilization's downfall.
> @kle4 said: > > @isam said: > > > > @Foxy said: > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134897907319132160 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Brexit Party/Con coalition viable! > > > > One thing is obvious from all this but that is conservatives, labour and chuk will be terrified of an election > > And yet run full pelt toward one!
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > Time to draft some "Only Labour can stop Farage!" leaflets. It may turn out to be true, as we may be about to see (regardless of who is 1st and 2nd) in Peterborough. > > I think the Lib Dems have a better claim
There will be a huge amount of tactical voting debate if this pattern were maintained. There will be seats where it's obvious who is the main Farage-stopper (on this poll, mostly Labour), but also loads of seats where anti-Faragists wrestle with rival dodgy barcharts and their consciences. Green voters will be especially tempted to vote for the Green surge, or to vote Labour because they're ideologically closer, or vote LibDem because they're the two leftish alternatives.
> @NickPalmer said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > Time to draft some "Only Labour can stop Farage!" leaflets. It may turn out to be true, as we may be about to see (regardless of who is 1st and 2nd) in Peterborough. > > > > I think the Lib Dems have a better claim > > There will be a huge amount of tactical voting debate if this pattern were maintained. There will be seats where it's obvious who is the main Farage-stopper (on this poll, mostly Labour), but also loads of seats where anti-Faragists wrestle with rival dodgy barcharts and their consciences. Green voters will be especially tempted to vote for the Green surge, or to vote Labour because they're ideologically closer, or vote LibDem because they're the two leftish alternatives.
I don't think current polls are very good at predicting the future. An interesting snap shot yes but a reliable indicator for future levels of support No. I suspect if Boris becomes PM he will be given a very good honeymoon in the Brexit supporting media. What he does with that honeymoon is open to question but he is probably the only candidate that can get max Brexit media support. It won't last long but a change in leadership does tend to shake the dice.
It won't stop us trying - but polling numbers like that are going to be impossible to translate into seats. If the Greens, Labour and Lib Dems split the progressive vote it could be a Brexit landslide with the Tories in opposition. If there is a lot of tactical voting it could wipe the Tories out and we could have a Labour minority government with the Lib Dems in opposition and Brexit holding the balance.
There’s no guarantee the house effect in a low turnout election largely driven by a single issue will be replicated in a higher turnout GE.
That’s especially true if the error was largely because you didn’t accurately identify who was likely to vote in the EP elections. E.g. the people who didn’t vote in the EP election (but will in a GE) are more likely to vote Labour and less likely to vote LD.
> @Barnesian said: > https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1134913467746476032 > > > > More interesting than the Opinium? > > Oh sorry I didn’t see ‘leadership’ > > Hmmm twitter hates Boris I guess? > > Putting the latest Opinium into the EMA gives: > > Con 23.2%, Lab 27.5%, LD 16.7%, Brex 20.5%, Green 5.7% > > Con 220 > Lab 301 > LD 30 > Brex 23 > Green 1 > SNP 53 > > Lab minority 25 seats short of majority > > Brex beginning to make an impact in terms of seats. Green not so.
Electoral calculas gives Brexit just 18 short of a majority !!!
I don't think current polls are very good at predicting the future. An interesting snap shot yes but a reliable indicator for future levels of support No. I suspect if Boris becomes PM he will be given a very good honeymoon in the Brexit supporting media. What he does with that honeymoon is open to question but he is probably the only candidate that can get max Brexit media support. It won't last long but a change in leadership does tend to shake the dice.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @Barnesian said: > > https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1134913467746476032 > > > > > > > > More interesting than the Opinium? > > > > Oh sorry I didn’t see ‘leadership’ > > > > Hmmm twitter hates Boris I guess? > > > > Putting the latest Opinium into the EMA gives: > > > > Con 23.2%, Lab 27.5%, LD 16.7%, Brex 20.5%, Green 5.7% > > > > Con 220 > > Lab 301 > > LD 30 > > Brex 23 > > Green 1 > > SNP 53 > > > > Lab minority 25 seats short of majority > > > > Brex beginning to make an impact in terms of seats. Green not so. > > Electoral calculas gives Brexit just 18 short of a majority !!! ********************************************************************************************************
You are using the latest Opinium poll. Lots of noise. Look at the previous poll!
I use a smoothing technique called exponential moving average (SMA) which gives the latest poll 10% weight and then degrades it as other polls come in.
So Farage would become PM with a majority of 6 if he does a deal with the Tories but would be 20 seats short without, though the Brexit Party could only be kept out of power by a Labour, SNP, LD and Tory coalition which would be interesting to say the least!
> @isam said: > I don't think current polls are very good at predicting the future. An interesting snap shot yes but a reliable indicator for future levels of support No. I suspect if Boris becomes PM he will be given a very good honeymoon in the Brexit supporting media. What he does with that honeymoon is open to question but he is probably the only candidate that can get max Brexit media support. It won't last long but a change in leadership does tend to shake the dice. > > Have to agree, they’re always wrong long term
Especially so in such volatile times, and with no sign of a GE for months at the very least.
'In the Tory leadership race, Boris Johnson has the most support (24%) among Conservative voters to be the party’s next leader. The other standout choice is Michael Gove, with 14%.'
> I don't think current polls are very good at predicting the future. An interesting snap shot yes but a reliable indicator for future levels of support No. I suspect if Boris becomes PM he will be given a very good honeymoon in the Brexit supporting media. What he does with that honeymoon is open to question but he is probably the only candidate that can get max Brexit media support. It won't last long but a change in leadership does tend to shake the dice.
>
> Have to agree, they’re always wrong long term
Especially so in such volatile times, and with no sign of a GE for months at the very least.
A year or so before the last 4 big UK elections, the polls were reverse indicators
I’d love PM Farage though, so hope they’re right this time
Doesn't look like anyone's attempted to do an opinion poll for Peterborough does it?
Constituency polls seem to have gone out of fashion.
Didn't Ashcroft do a bunch of constituency polls in 2015 that turned out to be way off (like all polls that election)? Guess they are deemed too expensive and haven't proved their worth.
Meanwhile, in Germany, the Greens sprint into the lead! Social Democrats collapse, and AfD also losing votes to the Greens - presumably classic protest voters, unless there's some complex shifting going on.
Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now?
Conservative voters don't get a vote in the leadership election so this is just mildly interesting noise, though I expect Team Boris will point to it in the Commons tea rooms.
I actually reckon the trend began at the start of March, when Change UK formed. They haven't benefited, but they might have cracked the party loyalties beyond the point of no return.
Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now?
The inability of the current Parliament to agree anything on Brexit, followed by a vote of confidence against the government?
> @Sandpit said: > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now? > > The inability of the current Parliament to agree anything on Brexit, followed by a vote of confidence against the government?
How many Tory MPs would defect when 100+ of them might lose their seats in a GE? Maybe the ERG would be willing to kamikaze to get a No Deal Brexit through, but I'm not sold.
> @NickPalmer said: > Meanwhile, in Germany, the Greens sprint into the lead! Social Democrats collapse, and AfD also losing votes to the Greens - presumably classic protest voters, unless there's some complex shifting going on. > > http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/forsa.htm There is a divide in Europe at the moment, rightwing populism is surging in the UK and Italy but declining in the Netherlands and Scandinavia, leftwing populism is rising fast in Germany but declining in Greece, while the liberal centre still tends to lead in France and the centre left in Spain and the centre right in Austria
> Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now?
>
> The inability of the current Parliament to agree anything on Brexit, followed by a vote of confidence against the government?
How many Tory MPs would defect when 100+ of them might lose their seats in a GE? Maybe the ERG would be willing to kamikaze to get a No Deal Brexit through, but I'm not sold.
It only needs a couple of old retirees to force the issue.
> @Quincel said: > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now?
Far from it. We now have to be moving to a second referendum with two separate questions: first, Remain or Leave (as in 2016), followed by (if Leave wins) May’s Deal vs No Deal. There’s simply no other viable way out. And it might just save the Tory party.
> @Quincel said: > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now?
Given on this poll most of the Cabinet, Ed Miliband, Yvette Cooper and Dennis Skinner would lose their seats to the Brexit Party it is fair to say neither of the 2 main parties will be rushing to a general election anytime soon
Looking over old bets I put money on Labour to win Chuka's seat when TIG was first founded. Felt so smart a few weeks ago, now I might lose because the LDs take it!
> Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now?
Given on this poll most of the Cabinet, Ed Miliband, Yvette Cooper and Dennis Skinner would lose their seats to the Brexit Party it is fair to say neither of the 2 main parties will be rushing to a general election anytime soon
Not intentionally. But unless your mythic Lab MPs emerge the logic of no deal forces a potential GE due to the possibility of a VONC.
Really disappointing game. Spurs played the better football but could play till midnight without scoring. Kane a total waste of space. Liverpool playing the worst I have seen this season but much more clinical in front of goal.
> Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now?
Far from it. We now have to be moving to a second referendum with two separate questions: first, Remain or Leave (as in 2016), followed by (if Leave wins) May’s Deal vs No Deal. There’s simply no other viable way out. And it might just save the Tory party.
Leave or remain has already been answered.
To ask the same question again is like asking Liverpool to play Spurs again before the trophy gets handed out.
> @DavidL said: > Really disappointing game. Spurs played the better football but could play till midnight without scoring. Kane a total waste of space. Liverpool playing the worst I have seen this season but much more clinical in front of goal.
I don't think current polls are very good at predicting the future. An interesting snap shot yes but a reliable indicator for future levels of support No.
I agree. If we limit ourselves to "predicting who gets a plurality", then polls are good in stable situations for scheduled elections from about a year out, then very good from about three months out. For snap elections I don't know, but even an assfuck like GE2017 they identified the plurality party
The EP 2019 elections are ambiguous. Those average errors aren't bad, but choosing many parties can flatter the average error and I think they did here. The Lab absolute errors were 1,9,5,4,10,11,1,3,8,11. Those are not good errors. Con is 0,5,6,3,4,3,2,3,3,4.
> @Sandpit said: > > @Quincel said: > > > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now? > > > > Far from it. We now have to be moving to a second referendum with two separate questions: first, Remain or Leave (as in 2016), followed by (if Leave wins) May’s Deal vs No Deal. There’s simply no other viable way out. And it might just save the Tory party. > > Leave or remain has already been answered. > > To ask the same question again is like asking Liverpool to play Spurs again before the trophy gets handed out.
Comments
> Wtf are those little bubbles across the middle of the screen on BT Sport?
>
> Mine is fine
So is mine
I am though trying to avoid pasta at the moment as I am embarking on another (probably doomed) attempt to lose some weight. I have given up bread and salami. But pasta - that is hard for me. I adore the stuff. And calamari fritti and arancini di riso - another Sicilian speciality - are hardly low calorie alternatives.....
A summer of tomato salads beckons.
Last night my son made a delicious chicken soup with prunes and leeks. I was tempted to tweet Rory Stewart and invite him round so that he could get at least one nourishing meal inside him.
> > @brendan16 said:
> > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134897907319132160
> >
> >
> >
> > Will it get as much media coverage and general excitement as the one showing the Liberal Democrats ahead earlier this week?
>
> Electoral calculas. The Brexit party 18 short of a majority
>
> Cat among pigeons time
Woah!! lol
There's enormous volatility out there at present so all polls should be treated with even more than the usual bucket load of salt. Trying to figure out where this leaves Peterborough for instance is well beyond my purview and I wouldn't be getting involved from a punting angle.
Labour are down 18 points from 2017 and the Conservatives are down 25. As a comparison the February 1974 numbers showed Labour down 6 and the Conservatives sown 8.5 and that was pretty seismic for the time.
June is no fizzy drinks.
> > @brendan16 said:
> > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134897907319132160
> >
> >
> >
> > Will it get as much media coverage and general excitement as the one showing the Liberal Democrats ahead earlier this week?
>
> Electoral calculas. The Brexit party 18 short of a majority
>
> Cat among pigeons time
Time to draft some "Only Labour can stop Farage!" leaflets. It may turn out to be true, as we may be about to see (regardless of who is 1st and 2nd) in Peterborough.
https://mobile.twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134897907319132160
> > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
>
> > > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
>
> >
>
> > > Are they not showing it on ordinary TV?
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > No BT sport
>
> >
>
> > Bugger...
>
>
>
> That's the free market for you.
>
> If it were Ajax vs PSG the audience in the UK would be derisory. BT’s gamble has paid off. iTV or BBC could have bid to win.
BT are showing the match for free on YouTube.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @brendan16 said:
> > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134897907319132160
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Will it get as much media coverage and general excitement as the one showing the Liberal Democrats ahead earlier this week?
> >
> > Electoral calculas. The Brexit party 18 short of a majority
> >
> > Cat among pigeons time
>
> Time to draft some "Only Labour can stop Farage!" leaflets. It may turn out to be true, as we may be about to see (regardless of who is 1st and 2nd) in Peterborough.
I think the Lib Dems have a better claim
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134897907319132160
Brexit Party/Con coalition viable!
> Off topic: 'Meat free May' came to an end 2 days early thanks to Wor Lass coming home with a stack of meat pies from the butchers in Ilkley. Still, 29 days was a decent run.
>
> June is no fizzy drinks.
Mine is:
No smoking January
No smoking February
No smoking March
No smoking April
No smoking May
No smoking June
No smoking July
No smoking August
No smoking September
No smoking October
No smoking November
No smoking December
Does that count ?
> > @matt said:
> > > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
> >
> > > > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
> >
> > >
> >
> > > > Are they not showing it on ordinary TV?
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > No BT sport
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Bugger...
> >
> >
> >
> > That's the free market for you.
> >
> > If it were Ajax vs PSG the audience in the UK would be derisory. BT’s gamble has paid off. iTV or BBC could have bid to win.
>
> BT are showing the match for free on YouTube.
Also free on Virgin channel 100
> Off topic: 'Meat free May' came to an end 2 days early thanks to Wor Lass coming home with a stack of meat pies from the butchers in Ilkley. Still, 29 days was a decent run.
>
>
>
> June is no fizzy drinks.
>
> Pah, I've just had a meat-free 27 and-a-half years
But do you like meat? If not, it is easy!
> > @SandyRentool said:
> > Off topic: 'Meat free May' came to an end 2 days early thanks to Wor Lass coming home with a stack of meat pies from the butchers in Ilkley. Still, 29 days was a decent run.
> >
> > June is no fizzy drinks.
>
> Mine is:
>
> No smoking January
> No smoking February
> No smoking March
> No smoking April
> No smoking May
> No smoking June
> No smoking July
> No smoking August
> No smoking September
> No smoking October
> No smoking November
> No smoking December
>
> Does that count ?
15 years for me and never one regret. Thousands of pounds saved plus big health benefits
Stopping smoking is a no brainer
> Abstractly, I wonder whether there is a correlation between football zealotry and "brexitism".
Well, duh. One of the most prominent alt-right groups is the Football Lads Alliance.
> Will Poch have the bottle to take off Kane at half time?
He is poor and Poch has better alternatives
But it is a dreadful game
> > @Foxy said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134897907319132160
>
>
>
>
>
> Brexit Party/Con coalition viable!
One thing is obvious from all this that the conservatives, labour and chuk will be terrified of an election
> > @Toms said:
> > Abstractly, I wonder whether there is a correlation between football zealotry and "brexitism".
>
> Well, duh. One of the most prominent alt-right groups is the Football Lads Alliance.
Tribalism I guess. It may be the civilization's downfall.
https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1134806467981303808
> > @isam said:
>
> > > @Foxy said:
>
> >
>
> > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134897907319132160
>
>
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Brexit Party/Con coalition viable!
>
>
>
> One thing is obvious from all this but that is conservatives, labour and chuk will be terrified of an election
>
> And yet run full pelt toward one!
Seems like it
> > Time to draft some "Only Labour can stop Farage!" leaflets. It may turn out to be true, as we may be about to see (regardless of who is 1st and 2nd) in Peterborough.
>
> I think the Lib Dems have a better claim
There will be a huge amount of tactical voting debate if this pattern were maintained. There will be seats where it's obvious who is the main Farage-stopper (on this poll, mostly Labour), but also loads of seats where anti-Faragists wrestle with rival dodgy barcharts and their consciences. Green voters will be especially tempted to vote for the Green surge, or to vote Labour because they're ideologically closer, or vote LibDem because they're the two leftish alternatives.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > Time to draft some "Only Labour can stop Farage!" leaflets. It may turn out to be true, as we may be about to see (regardless of who is 1st and 2nd) in Peterborough.
> >
> > I think the Lib Dems have a better claim
>
> There will be a huge amount of tactical voting debate if this pattern were maintained. There will be seats where it's obvious who is the main Farage-stopper (on this poll, mostly Labour), but also loads of seats where anti-Faragists wrestle with rival dodgy barcharts and their consciences. Green voters will be especially tempted to vote for the Green surge, or to vote Labour because they're ideologically closer, or vote LibDem because they're the two leftish alternatives.
I think we can agree Nick it is a mess
Oh sorry I didn’t see ‘leadership’
Hmmm twitter hates Boris I guess?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-48486672
And they want us to be worried about huawei?
Con 23.2%, Lab 27.5%, LD 16.7%, Brex 20.5%, Green 5.7%
Con 220
Lab 301
LD 30
Brex 23
Green 1
SNP 53
Lab minority 25 seats short of majority
Brex beginning to make an impact in terms of seats. Green not so.
> https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/1134903822768377856?s=21
Interesting, especially as those look closer to the yougov national figures.
> Will we have to declare our pb usernames when entering the US?
>
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-48486672
>
> And they want us to be worried about huawei?
I applied for an ESTA last week and noticed that it did ask for my social media details, although it said it was optional.
It won't stop us trying - but polling numbers like that are going to be impossible to translate into seats. If the Greens, Labour and Lib Dems split the progressive vote it could be a Brexit landslide with the Tories in opposition. If there is a lot of tactical voting it could wipe the Tories out and we could have a Labour minority government with the Lib Dems in opposition and Brexit holding the balance.
> More likely just Rory the not so Tory on -5%
That seems very likely, and maybe someone surprising in 2nd.
If Boris wasn't miles ahead, that would be very interesting.
That’s especially true if the error was largely because you didn’t accurately identify who was likely to vote in the EP elections. E.g. the people who didn’t vote in the EP election (but will in a GE) are more likely to vote Labour and less likely to vote LD.
> https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1134913467746476032
>
>
>
> More interesting than the Opinium?
>
> Oh sorry I didn’t see ‘leadership’
>
> Hmmm twitter hates Boris I guess?
>
> Putting the latest Opinium into the EMA gives:
>
> Con 23.2%, Lab 27.5%, LD 16.7%, Brex 20.5%, Green 5.7%
>
> Con 220
> Lab 301
> LD 30
> Brex 23
> Green 1
> SNP 53
>
> Lab minority 25 seats short of majority
>
> Brex beginning to make an impact in terms of seats. Green not so.
Electoral calculas gives Brexit just 18 short of a majority !!!
> > @Barnesian said:
> > https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1134913467746476032
> >
> >
> >
> > More interesting than the Opinium?
> >
> > Oh sorry I didn’t see ‘leadership’
> >
> > Hmmm twitter hates Boris I guess?
> >
> > Putting the latest Opinium into the EMA gives:
> >
> > Con 23.2%, Lab 27.5%, LD 16.7%, Brex 20.5%, Green 5.7%
> >
> > Con 220
> > Lab 301
> > LD 30
> > Brex 23
> > Green 1
> > SNP 53
> >
> > Lab minority 25 seats short of majority
> >
> > Brex beginning to make an impact in terms of seats. Green not so.
>
> Electoral calculas gives Brexit just 18 short of a majority !!!
********************************************************************************************************
You are using the latest Opinium poll. Lots of noise. Look at the previous poll!
I use a smoothing technique called exponential moving average (SMA) which gives the latest poll 10% weight and then degrades it as other polls come in.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @Barnesian said:
> > > https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1134913467746476032
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > More interesting than the Opinium?
> > >
> > > Oh sorry I didn’t see ‘leadership’
> > >
> > > Hmmm twitter hates Boris I guess?
> > >
> > > Putting the latest Opinium into the EMA gives:
> > >
> > > Con 23.2%, Lab 27.5%, LD 16.7%, Brex 20.5%, Green 5.7%
> > >
> > > Con 220
> > > Lab 301
> > > LD 30
> > > Brex 23
> > > Green 1
> > > SNP 53
> > >
> > > Lab minority 25 seats short of majority
> > >
> > > Brex beginning to make an impact in terms of seats. Green not so.
> >
> > Electoral calculas gives Brexit just 18 short of a majority !!!
>
> You are using the latest
Er Yes
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134897907319132160
Based on tonight's dramatic new Opinium poll, Electoral Calculus gives the Brexit Party 306 seats, Labour 205, SNP 56, LDs 33, Tories 26.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=17&LAB=22&LIB=16&UKIP=1&Green=11&ChUK=1&Brexit=26&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
So Farage would become PM with a majority of 6 if he does a deal with the Tories but would be 20 seats short without, though the Brexit Party could only be kept out of power by a Labour, SNP, LD and Tory coalition which would be interesting to say the least!
> I don't think current polls are very good at predicting the future. An interesting snap shot yes but a reliable indicator for future levels of support No. I suspect if Boris becomes PM he will be given a very good honeymoon in the Brexit supporting media. What he does with that honeymoon is open to question but he is probably the only candidate that can get max Brexit media support. It won't last long but a change in leadership does tend to shake the dice.
>
> Have to agree, they’re always wrong long term
Especially so in such volatile times, and with no sign of a GE for months at the very least.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/01/brexit-party-nigel-farage-lead-opinion-poll-conservatives-opinium
Wowzerz
I’d love PM Farage though, so hope they’re right this time
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/forsa.htm
March 29, 2019
> 'In the Tory leadership race, Boris Johnson has the most support (24%) among Conservative voters to be the party’s next leader. The other standout choice is Michael Gove, with 14%.'
>
> https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/01/brexit-party-nigel-farage-lead-opinion-poll-conservatives-opinium
Conservative voters don't get a vote in the leadership election so this is just mildly interesting noise, though I expect Team Boris will point to it in the Commons tea rooms.
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election.svg
>
>
>
> Wowzerz
>
>
> March 29, 2019
I actually reckon the trend began at the start of March, when Change UK formed. They haven't benefited, but they might have cracked the party loyalties beyond the point of no return.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Danish_general_election
> Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now?
>
> The inability of the current Parliament to agree anything on Brexit, followed by a vote of confidence against the government?
How many Tory MPs would defect when 100+ of them might lose their seats in a GE? Maybe the ERG would be willing to kamikaze to get a No Deal Brexit through, but I'm not sold.
> Meanwhile, in Germany, the Greens sprint into the lead! Social Democrats collapse, and AfD also losing votes to the Greens - presumably classic protest voters, unless there's some complex shifting going on.
>
> http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/forsa.htm
There is a divide in Europe at the moment, rightwing populism is surging in the UK and Italy but declining in the Netherlands and Scandinavia, leftwing populism is rising fast in Germany but declining in Greece, while the liberal centre still tends to lead in France and the centre left in Spain and the centre right in Austria
> Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now?
Far from it. We now have to be moving to a second referendum with two separate questions: first, Remain or Leave (as in 2016), followed by (if Leave wins) May’s Deal vs No Deal. There’s simply no other viable way out. And it might just save the Tory party.
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election.svg
>
>
>
> Wowzerz
>
>
> March 29, 2019
a date which will live in infamy...
> Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now?
Given on this poll most of the Cabinet, Ed Miliband, Yvette Cooper and Dennis Skinner would lose their seats to the Brexit Party it is fair to say neither of the 2 main parties will be rushing to a general election anytime soon
> I think it’s fair to say that seat models are now completely broken,
> if the next election is fought between the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems.
The YouGov model should still work. Would be interesting to see it used on current polling.
To ask the same question again is like asking Liverpool to play Spurs again before the trophy gets handed out.
> Really disappointing game. Spurs played the better football but could play till midnight without scoring. Kane a total waste of space. Liverpool playing the worst I have seen this season but much more clinical in front of goal.
Good summary of a very poor game.
The EP 2019 elections are ambiguous. Those average errors aren't bad, but choosing many parties can flatter the average error and I think they did here. The Lab absolute errors were 1,9,5,4,10,11,1,3,8,11. Those are not good errors. Con is 0,5,6,3,4,3,2,3,3,4.
> By late July Brexit Party could well be below 20% again.
It could also be above 20% still.
> https://twitter.com/bbchelenalee/status/1134924932264222724?s=21
Donald!!!!!
> > @Quincel said:
>
> > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now?
>
>
>
> Far from it. We now have to be moving to a second referendum with two separate questions: first, Remain or Leave (as in 2016), followed by (if Leave wins) May’s Deal vs No Deal. There’s simply no other viable way out. And it might just save the Tory party.
>
> Leave or remain has already been answered.
>
> To ask the same question again is like asking Liverpool to play Spurs again before the trophy gets handed out.
But.. but.. the russians!!