> Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now?
Far from it. We now have to be moving to a second referendum with two separate questions: first, Remain or Leave (as in 2016), followed by (if Leave wins) May’s Deal vs No Deal. There’s simply no other viable way out. And it might just save the Tory party.
Cannot see why the first question (a re-run of the 2016 ref) is acceptable.
Bercow has already made it clear that in parliament a re-introducing of essentially the same bill for approval/rejection is verboten.
And the referendum is an outsourcing of paliament's decision-making. So we also cannot re-ask that question. The only concern is how we leave.
> @Sandpit said: > > @Quincel said: > > > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now? > > > > Far from it. We now have to be moving to a second referendum with two separate questions: first, Remain or Leave (as in 2016), followed by (if Leave wins) May’s Deal vs No Deal. There’s simply no other viable way out. And it might just save the Tory party. > > Leave or remain has already been answered. > > To ask the same question again is like asking Liverpool to play Spurs again before the trophy gets handed out.
I know but political necessity now requires that it be asked again. Parliament isn’t going to sort out this shameful shambles, so their bosses (us) are going to have to do it. My guess is that Leave will win again and May’s Deal will be endorsed. Crazy but there you go.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @DavidL said: > > Really disappointing game. Spurs played the better football but could play till midnight without scoring. Kane a total waste of space. Liverpool playing the worst I have seen this season but much more clinical in front of goal. > > Good summary of a very poor game.
Kane and Firmino were not match fit..
Spurs had their only chances when Lucas Moura came on, should have started.
> @MarkHopkins said: > > @Quincel said: > > > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now? > > > > Far from it. We now have to be moving to a second referendum with two separate questions: first, Remain or Leave (as in 2016), followed by (if Leave wins) May’s Deal vs No Deal. There’s simply no other viable way out. And it might just save the Tory party. > > > Cannot see why the first question (a re-run of the 2016 ref) is acceptable. > > Bercow has already made it clear that in parliament a re-introducing of essentially the same bill for approval/rejection is verboten. > > And the referendum is an outsourcing of paliament's decision-making. So we also cannot re-ask that question. The only concern is how we leave.
A three-way question: Deal, No-deal, Remain - with two votes a week apart, the last placed option in week one dropping out for week two, is surely the way to go.
> @Foxy said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @DavidL said: > > > Really disappointing game. Spurs played the better football but could play till midnight without scoring. Kane a total waste of space. Liverpool playing the worst I have seen this season but much more clinical in front of goal. > > > > Good summary of a very poor game. > > Kane and Firmino were not match fit.. > > Spurs had their only chances when Lucas Moura came on, should have started. > >
Kane strikes me as a player with an oversized ego who thinks it is all about him. I think England are better without him as well. He should not have been on the pitch.
> > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now?
>
>
>
> Far from it. We now have to be moving to a second referendum with two separate questions: first, Remain or Leave (as in 2016), followed by (if Leave wins) May’s Deal vs No Deal. There’s simply no other viable way out. And it might just save the Tory party.
>
> Leave or remain has already been answered.
>
> To ask the same question again is like asking Liverpool to play Spurs again before the trophy gets handed out.
But.. but.. the russians!!
Soviets. Soviets everywhere.
You don't know what its like in our universe. The Federations gone, the Soviets are everywhere.
> @MarkHopkins said: > > @Quincel said: > > > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now? > > > > Far from it. We now have to be moving to a second referendum with two separate questions: first, Remain or Leave (as in 2016), followed by (if Leave wins) May’s Deal vs No Deal. There’s simply no other viable way out. And it might just save the Tory party. > > > Cannot see why the first question (a re-run of the 2016 ref) is acceptable. > > Bercow has already made it clear that in parliament a re-introducing of essentially the same bill for approval/rejection is verboten. > > And the referendum is an outsourcing of paliament's decision-making. So we also cannot re-ask that question. The only concern is how we leave.
Not correct. Bercow ruled against voting again on the WA in the same Parliament. We now have a different Parliament to 2016, therefore the ruling does not apply.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Quincel said: > > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now? > > Given on this poll most of the Cabinet, Ed Miliband, Yvette Cooper and Dennis Skinner would lose their seats to the Brexit Party it is fair to say neither of the 2 main parties will be rushing to a general election anytime soon
Chris Grayling, Theresa May, Jeremy Hunt and Sajid Javid would survive the apocalypse though, as would Jeremy Corbyn
> @kle4 said: > > @Quincel said: > > > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now? > > > > Given on this poll most of the Cabinet, Ed Miliband, Yvette Cooper and Dennis Skinner would lose their seats to the Brexit Party it is fair to say neither of the 2 main parties will be rushing to a general election anytime soon > > Not intentionally. But unless your mythic Lab MPs emerge the logic of no deal forces a potential GE due to the possibility of a VONC.
And a GE could then see Farage on a No Deal platform sweep to victory unless we have Brexited by then and the Deal has passed or unless a new Tory leader promises to leave Deal or No Deal
> @Quincel said: > Looking over old bets I put money on Labour to win Chuka's seat when TIG was first founded. Felt so smart a few weeks ago, now I might lose because the LDs take it!
I can't believe Labour lost my London bet. Fucking useless.
> @Benpointer said: > > @MarkHopkins said: > > > @Quincel said: > > > > > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now? > > > > > > > > Far from it. We now have to be moving to a second referendum with two separate questions: first, Remain or Leave (as in 2016), followed by (if Leave wins) May’s Deal vs No Deal. There’s simply no other viable way out. And it might just save the Tory party. > > > > > > Cannot see why the first question (a re-run of the 2016 ref) is acceptable. > > > > Bercow has already made it clear that in parliament a re-introducing of essentially the same bill for approval/rejection is verboten. > > > > And the referendum is an outsourcing of paliament's decision-making. So we also cannot re-ask that question. The only concern is how we leave. > > A three-way question: Deal, No-deal, Remain - with two votes a week apart, the last placed option in week one dropping out for week two, is surely the way to go.
> @Foxy said: > > @MarkHopkins said: > > > @Quincel said: > > > > > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now? > > > > > > > > Far from it. We now have to be moving to a second referendum with two separate questions: first, Remain or Leave (as in 2016), followed by (if Leave wins) May’s Deal vs No Deal. There’s simply no other viable way out. And it might just save the Tory party. > > > > > > Cannot see why the first question (a re-run of the 2016 ref) is acceptable. > > > > Bercow has already made it clear that in parliament a re-introducing of essentially the same bill for approval/rejection is verboten. > > > > And the referendum is an outsourcing of paliament's decision-making. So we also cannot re-ask that question. The only concern is how we leave. > > Not correct. Bercow ruled against voting again on the WA in the same Parliament. We now have a different Parliament to 2016, therefore the ruling does not apply.
The same electorate, though. Unless they want to gerrymander it by extending it to children and EU citizens.
One of the most frightening moments in television history. I still remember the shivers it gave me. I had expected to see the ship firing was a 'Mirror' universe of bad characters, but instead it was just Riker and Worf on a wrecked bridge. That is one scary universe.
Consider if TBP do get an MP into parliament in this by-election:
Fiona Onasanya provided the name of man she said was driving the car. A Russian. When the police followed this up, the Russians would have confirmed the details. As a result, she was prosecuted, jailed, and kicked out as an MP.
So if/when TBP win, finally the conspiracists will be right, it will be because of the Russians...
> @RobD said: > > @Foxy said: > > > @MarkHopkins said: > > > > @Quincel said: > > > > > > > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now? > > > > > > > > > > > > Far from it. We now have to be moving to a second referendum with two separate questions: first, Remain or Leave (as in 2016), followed by (if Leave wins) May’s Deal vs No Deal. There’s simply no other viable way out. And it might just save the Tory party. > > > > > > > > > Cannot see why the first question (a re-run of the 2016 ref) is acceptable. > > > > > > Bercow has already made it clear that in parliament a re-introducing of essentially the same bill for approval/rejection is verboten. > > > > > > And the referendum is an outsourcing of paliament's decision-making. So we also cannot re-ask that question. The only concern is how we leave. > > > > Not correct. Bercow ruled against voting again on the WA in the same Parliament. We now have a different Parliament to 2016, therefore the ruling does not apply. > > The same electorate, though. Unless they want to gerrymander it by extending it to children and EU citizens.
It's definitely a different electorate: 15-18 year olds in June 2016 can all now vote... and of course quite a few of the 2016 electorate have sadly but inevitably died.
Corbyn won't be in #10, it'll be Nige at this rate
JCICWNBPM
Corbyn will NEVER get to No. 10. The man is incompetent, and not fit to be leader of the opposition (hell, I doubt he's anything more than annoying MP material) let alone Prime Minister.
In the event of a hung parliament, with Labour on 200 seats with 19% of the vote, I would hope that neither the LD/BXP or CON will work with him to put him in No. 10. I'd rather see Farage there first than that fool.
> @Benpointer said: > > @RobD said: > > > @Foxy said: > > > > @MarkHopkins said: > > > > > @Quincel said: > > > > > > > > > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Far from it. We now have to be moving to a second referendum with two separate questions: first, Remain or Leave (as in 2016), followed by (if Leave wins) May’s Deal vs No Deal. There’s simply no other viable way out. And it might just save the Tory party. > > > > > > > > > > > > Cannot see why the first question (a re-run of the 2016 ref) is acceptable. > > > > > > > > Bercow has already made it clear that in parliament a re-introducing of essentially the same bill for approval/rejection is verboten. > > > > > > > > And the referendum is an outsourcing of paliament's decision-making. So we also cannot re-ask that question. The only concern is how we leave. > > > > > > Not correct. Bercow ruled against voting again on the WA in the same Parliament. We now have a different Parliament to 2016, therefore the ruling does not apply. > > > > The same electorate, though. Unless they want to gerrymander it by extending it to children and EU citizens. > > It's definitely a different electorate: 15-18 year olds in June 2016 can all now vote... and of course quite a few of the 2016 electorate have sadly but inevitably died.
At the edges perhaps, but the bulk is basically the same.
Predicting election results off these polls is somewhat meaningless as swings of this size will not be uniform. To add to that, the polls themselves are likely to be more variable given the difficulty of measuring insurgent parties. All in all, these results just reinforce the fact that the next election is entirely unpredictable.
But more polls like this will still drive the behaviour of the main two parties. The Conservatives think that moving towards a more hard-line leader will solve their woes, yet this risks losing more moderates to the resurgent Lib Dems. Labour may come to realise that their only escape route is to remove Corbyn, however difficult that may be.
In the short-term, what will it take to convince Change UK that their wish for a moderate, anti-Brexit party that the electorate takes seriously has finally come true and that it probably makes sense to join it?
Boris on more than Hunt, Gove and Javid combined with both Tory and All voters on that poll. Gove second favourite with All voters, Hunt second favourite with Tory voters
> @RobD said: > > @Benpointer said: > > > @RobD said: > > > > @Foxy said: > > > > > @MarkHopkins said: > > > > > > @Quincel said: > > > > > > > > > > > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Far from it. We now have to be moving to a second referendum with two separate questions: first, Remain or Leave (as in 2016), followed by (if Leave wins) May’s Deal vs No Deal. There’s simply no other viable way out. And it might just save the Tory party. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Cannot see why the first question (a re-run of the 2016 ref) is acceptable. > > > > > > > > > > Bercow has already made it clear that in parliament a re-introducing of essentially the same bill for approval/rejection is verboten. > > > > > > > > > > And the referendum is an outsourcing of paliament's decision-making. So we also cannot re-ask that question. The only concern is how we leave. > > > > > > > > Not correct. Bercow ruled against voting again on the WA in the same Parliament. We now have a different Parliament to 2016, therefore the ruling does not apply. > > > > > > The same electorate, though. Unless they want to gerrymander it by extending it to children and EU citizens. > > > > It's definitely a different electorate: 15-18 year olds in June 2016 can all now vote... and of course quite a few of the 2016 electorate have sadly but inevitably died. > > At the edges perhaps, but the bulk is basically the same.
Swapping 3 years of under 25s in for 3 years of (mainly) over 60s is going to may a noticeable difference.
I still think the Deal would win but at least that would settle it - parliament could approve the WA subject to that referendum, then once Deal won the ref it's a done Deal.
> @Pulpstar said: > Remember, Peterborough is precisely the sort of medium sized town Labour need to be winning to win the next GE
Pah! It's a one-off.
TBP will probably win Peterborough - they have the momentum - but we should not assume that will determine the outcome of a future GE which could be anywhere from 3 months to 3 years away.
> @Ratters said: > Predicting election results off these polls is somewhat meaningless as swings of this size will not be uniform. To add to that, the polls themselves are likely to be more variable given the difficulty of measuring insurgent parties. All in all, these results just reinforce the fact that the next election is entirely unpredictable. > > But more polls like this will still drive the behaviour of the main two parties. The Conservatives think that moving towards a more hard-line leader will solve their woes, yet this risks losing more moderates to the resurgent Lib Dems. Labour may come to realise that their only escape route is to remove Corbyn, however difficult that may be. > > In the short-term, what will it take to convince Change UK that their wish for a moderate, anti-Brexit party that the electorate takes seriously has finally come true and that it probably makes sense to join it?
Welcome aboard - good post!
I suspect CUK will quietly be absorbed into the LDs during the next year or so.
> Remember, Peterborough is precisely the sort of medium sized town Labour need to be winning to win the next GE
Pah! It's a one-off.
TBP will probably win Peterborough - they have the momentum - but we should not assume that will determine the outcome of a future GE which could be anywhere from 3 months to 3 years away.
Is now a good time for an reminder that there are only two viable end states for the UK? Second class satellite of the European Union or full member. Everything else is noise.
> @FF43 said: > Is now a good time for an reminder that there are only two viable end states for the UK? Second class satellite of the European Union or full member. Everything else is noise.
Is now a good time for an reminder that there are only two viable end states for the UK? Second class satellite of the European Union or full member. Everything else is noise.
Only (if I am correct in assuming that you celebrate the prospect of our staying in the EU) if the Lib Dems were to be less weak and pathetic than they were in 2010 and thus to force Labour, under such a scenario, to adopt electoral reform.
If the Brexit Party replaces the Tories and FPTP remains in place, then the eventual likelihood of a Brexit Party majority in Parliament would be high. And then we'd be out regardless.
> Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now?
Far from it. We now have to be moving to a second referendum with two separate questions: first, Remain or Leave (as in 2016), followed by (if Leave wins) May’s Deal vs No Deal. There’s simply no other viable way out. And it might just save the Tory party.
Cannot see why the first question (a re-run of the 2016 ref) is acceptable.
Bercow has already made it clear that in parliament a re-introducing of essentially the same bill for approval/rejection is verboten.
And the referendum is an outsourcing of paliament's decision-making. So we also cannot re-ask that question. The only concern is how we leave.
I think the mandate from the referendum is now way out of date.
> @FF43 said: > Is now a good time for an reminder that there are only two viable end states for the UK? Second class satellite of the European Union or full member. Everything else is noise.
> @oldpolitics said: > @NickPalmer said: > > > ...and in Denmark, for Sunday's general election, > > the Danes swing sharply leftwards: > > Danish Left has of course gone full on Blue Labour - "here's what you could have won".
The centre-left surge is not coming from the social democrats but from the social liberals (=LibDems in pro-Labour form) and the socialist people's party (=Tribunite Labour).The main factor is really the collapse of the anti-immigration Eurosceptical Danish people's party.
> Is now a good time for an reminder that there are only two viable end states for the UK? Second class satellite of the European Union or full member. Everything else is noise.
Why...just why...would you poll Tory voters on the leadership candidates and not Tory members? These numbers are only vaguely useful, given how niche the memberships can be.
> @Black_Rook said: > > If the Brexit Party replaces the Tories and FPTP remains in place, then the eventual likelihood of a Brexit Party majority in Parliament would be high. And then we'd be out regardless. ----------
I wouldn't make that assumption. "Brexit" by that point could become an abstraction that doesn't literally mean leaving the EU.
Another poll suggesting the LibDems are slipping back, but all 4 parties are in with a shot at the moment. I do want to meet the 4% who feel Michael Gove would be fun in a pub - like me, they're the sort of people who go to pubs to discuss select committee reports.
We had a Labour branch meeting the other day after which people lingered to socialise, and fell into arguing the relative virtues of John Stuart Mill and Bentham in utilitarian philosophy. (Brexit? Oh, whatever.)
Gove's game is now to burnish his appeal to the Remain majority of Conservative MPs, and hope that he gets into the final ballot with Hunt at the expense of Johnson/Raab. There is a fair chance of that. Once Gove gets that far he'll about turn and become a born again Brexiteer and try and re-establish his credentials to appeal to the Tory membership. Faced with a choice between two Cabinet ministers who facilitated May right to the very end, the members will still choose him over Hunt.
The flaw in that plan is that following today's pronouncement he'll now be seen as a continuity May PM and that would really open the door to Farage to decimate the Tories at a GE.
> @Sandpit said: > Is now a good time for an reminder that there are only two viable end states for the UK? Second class satellite of the European Union or full member. Everything else is noise. > > Or we can actually leave.
> @Recidivist said: > > @Quincel said: > > > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now? > > > > Far from it. We now have to be moving to a second referendum with two separate questions: first, Remain or Leave (as in 2016), followed by (if Leave wins) May’s Deal vs No Deal. There’s simply no other viable way out. And it might just save the Tory party. > > > Cannot see why the first question (a re-run of the 2016 ref) is acceptable. > > Bercow has already made it clear that in parliament a re-introducing of essentially the same bill for approval/rejection is verboten. > > And the referendum is an outsourcing of paliament's decision-making. So we also cannot re-ask that question. The only concern is how we leave. > > > > I think the mandate from the referendum is now way out of date.
+1 The fundamental point is the best deal is EU membership, to rule that out in any future referendum is counter to the public interest. If people vote to Leave in a second referendum then, I would accept that but given its impact on the lives of British people for generations to come a three way referendum of No Deal, Deal or No Brexit (Remain) should be instigated to bring this matter to a conclusion.
> @Recidivist said: > > @Quincel said: > > > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now? > > > > Far from it. We now have to be moving to a second referendum with two separate questions: first, Remain or Leave (as in 2016), followed by (if Leave wins) May’s Deal vs No Deal. There’s simply no other viable way out. And it might just save the Tory party. > > > Cannot see why the first question (a re-run of the 2016 ref) is acceptable. > > Bercow has already made it clear that in parliament a re-introducing of essentially the same bill for approval/rejection is verboten. > > And the referendum is an outsourcing of paliament's decision-making. So we also cannot re-ask that question. The only concern is how we leave. > > > > I think the mandate from the referendum is now way out of date.
When do you think the government should have invoked article 50?
Is now a good time for an reminder that there are only two viable end states for the UK? Second class satellite of the European Union or full member. Everything else is noise.
> @Quincel said: > Why...just why...would you poll Tory voters on the leadership candidates and not Tory members? These numbers are only vaguely useful, given how niche the memberships can be.
To capture the views of Tory members you would need to poll current Brexit Party voters.
Is anyone shedding any tears at the collapse in support for the two main parties?
Honestly? Everything is a fucking shitstorm and I hate every minute of it. I can see good in Labour, Conservative, Liberal, SNP, even Brexit (at a push). The only ones I object to absolutely are the Greens (sorry), the BNP and some of the Northern Ireland parties. But every party is indulging - damn, flaunting - their dark side, and virtue, rationality and reason has been thrown out of the window like it's so terribly retro. It's a festival of shit, a Saturnalia, a horror film, it's rubbish and I hate it.
> @The_Taxman said: > > @Recidivist said: > > > @Quincel said: > > > > > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now? > > > > > > > > Far from it. We now have to be moving to a second referendum with two separate questions: first, Remain or Leave (as in 2016), followed by (if Leave wins) May’s Deal vs No Deal. There’s simply no other viable way out. And it might just save the Tory party. > > > > > > Cannot see why the first question (a re-run of the 2016 ref) is acceptable. > > > > Bercow has already made it clear that in parliament a re-introducing of essentially the same bill for approval/rejection is verboten. > > > > And the referendum is an outsourcing of paliament's decision-making. So we also cannot re-ask that question. The only concern is how we leave. > > > > > > > > I think the mandate from the referendum is now way out of date. > > +1 The fundamental point is the best deal is EU membership, to rule that out in any future referendum is counter to the public interest. If people vote to Leave in a second referendum then, I would accept that but given its impact on the lives of British people for generations to come a three way referendum of No Deal, Deal or No Brexit (Remain) should be instigated to bring this matter to a conclusion. >
The best deal is certainly not EUI membership. And it is your insistence on this point and on trying to reverse the referendum result that is making a NO Deal all the more likely. Your fanaticism is just as damaging to the country as that of the ERG. More so in fact because what you are destroying is the basic belief in democracy.
> Remember, Peterborough is precisely the sort of medium sized town Labour need to be winning to win the next GE
Pah! It's a one-off.
TBP will probably win Peterborough - they have the momentum - but we should not assume that will determine the outcome of a future GE which could be anywhere from 3 months to 3 years away.
Who wrote this?
Recent EU elections have actually been a poor guide to the winning party’s fortunes at the subsequent general election. In their regally purple heyday, UKIP under their ex-leader Nigel Farage won the largest share of the vote and the most seats at the most recent EU election in 2014, but their vote halved at the GE the following year, winning only one MP. By contrast, the Tories under David Cameron won the previous 2009 EU election, whilst they were in opposition, and then went on to become largest party at the 2010 GE, and the larger party in the ensuing Con-LibDem coalition. And in 2014, the Tories came a poor third, behind UKIP and Labour, but then went on to win an outright majority at GE 2015.
Is now a good time for an reminder that there are only two viable end states for the UK? Second class satellite of the European Union or full member. Everything else is noise.
Gove's game is now to burnish his appeal to the Remain majority of Conservative MPs, and hope that he gets into the final ballot with Hunt at the expense of Johnson/Raab. There is a fair chance of that. Once Gove gets that far he'll about turn and become a born again Brexiteer and try and re-establish his credentials to appeal to the Tory membership. Faced with a choice between two Cabinet ministers who facilitated May right to the very end, the members will still choose him over Hunt.
The flaw in that plan is that following today's pronouncement he'll now be seen as a continuity May PM and that would really open the door to Farage to decimate the Tories at a GE.
He should aim to be in the last two but not appeal to the members. The headbanger who comes first (Raab?) will be VONC'd and the second in line will be the natural next pick.
> > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now?
>
>
>
> Far from it. We now have to be moving to a second referendum with two separate questions: first, Remain or Leave (as in 2016), followed by (if Leave wins) May’s Deal vs No Deal. There’s simply no other viable way out. And it might just save the Tory party.
>
>
> Cannot see why the first question (a re-run of the 2016 ref) is acceptable.
>
> Bercow has already made it clear that in parliament a re-introducing of essentially the same bill for approval/rejection is verboten.
>
> And the referendum is an outsourcing of paliament's decision-making. So we also cannot re-ask that question. The only concern is how we leave.
>
>
>
> I think the mandate from the referendum is now way out of date.
When do you think the government should have invoked article 50?
When they were ready to actually leave. 7-8 years after the referendum maybe. If it was a serious project it would have been necessary to give it a chance of success.
Comments
Cannot see why the first question (a re-run of the 2016 ref) is acceptable.
Bercow has already made it clear that in parliament a re-introducing of essentially the same bill for approval/rejection is verboten.
And the referendum is an outsourcing of paliament's decision-making. So we also cannot re-ask that question. The only concern is how we leave.
> ...and in Denmark, for Sunday's general election, the Danes swing sharply leftwards:
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Danish_general_election
The right will win somehow......
> > @Quincel said:
>
> > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now?
>
>
>
> Far from it. We now have to be moving to a second referendum with two separate questions: first, Remain or Leave (as in 2016), followed by (if Leave wins) May’s Deal vs No Deal. There’s simply no other viable way out. And it might just save the Tory party.
>
> Leave or remain has already been answered.
>
> To ask the same question again is like asking Liverpool to play Spurs again before the trophy gets handed out.
I know but political necessity now requires that it be asked again. Parliament isn’t going to sort out this shameful shambles, so their bosses (us) are going to have to do it. My guess is that Leave will win again and May’s Deal will be endorsed. Crazy but there you go.
> > @DavidL said:
> > Really disappointing game. Spurs played the better football but could play till midnight without scoring. Kane a total waste of space. Liverpool playing the worst I have seen this season but much more clinical in front of goal.
>
> Good summary of a very poor game.
Kane and Firmino were not match fit..
Spurs had their only chances when Lucas Moura came on, should have started.
> > @Quincel said:
>
> > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now?
>
>
>
> Far from it. We now have to be moving to a second referendum with two separate questions: first, Remain or Leave (as in 2016), followed by (if Leave wins) May’s Deal vs No Deal. There’s simply no other viable way out. And it might just save the Tory party.
>
>
> Cannot see why the first question (a re-run of the 2016 ref) is acceptable.
>
> Bercow has already made it clear that in parliament a re-introducing of essentially the same bill for approval/rejection is verboten.
>
> And the referendum is an outsourcing of paliament's decision-making. So we also cannot re-ask that question. The only concern is how we leave.
A three-way question: Deal, No-deal, Remain - with two votes a week apart, the last placed option in week one dropping out for week two, is surely the way to go.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @DavidL said:
> > > Really disappointing game. Spurs played the better football but could play till midnight without scoring. Kane a total waste of space. Liverpool playing the worst I have seen this season but much more clinical in front of goal.
> >
> > Good summary of a very poor game.
>
> Kane and Firmino were not match fit..
>
> Spurs had their only chances when Lucas Moura came on, should have started.
>
>
Kane strikes me as a player with an oversized ego who thinks it is all about him. I think England are better without him as well. He should not have been on the pitch.
You don't know what its like in our universe. The Federations gone, the Soviets are everywhere.
> > @Quincel said:
>
> > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now?
>
>
>
> Far from it. We now have to be moving to a second referendum with two separate questions: first, Remain or Leave (as in 2016), followed by (if Leave wins) May’s Deal vs No Deal. There’s simply no other viable way out. And it might just save the Tory party.
>
>
> Cannot see why the first question (a re-run of the 2016 ref) is acceptable.
>
> Bercow has already made it clear that in parliament a re-introducing of essentially the same bill for approval/rejection is verboten.
>
> And the referendum is an outsourcing of paliament's decision-making. So we also cannot re-ask that question. The only concern is how we leave.
Not correct. Bercow ruled against voting again on the WA in the same Parliament. We now have a different Parliament to 2016, therefore the ruling does not apply.
> > @Quincel said:
> > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now?
>
> Given on this poll most of the Cabinet, Ed Miliband, Yvette Cooper and Dennis Skinner would lose their seats to the Brexit Party it is fair to say neither of the 2 main parties will be rushing to a general election anytime soon
Chris Grayling, Theresa May, Jeremy Hunt and Sajid Javid would survive the apocalypse though, as would Jeremy Corbyn
> > @Foxy said:
> > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134897907319132160
>
> Brexit Party/Con coalition viable!
Well I did warn everyone banging on about a second ref
> > @Quincel said:
>
> > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now?
>
>
>
> Given on this poll most of the Cabinet, Ed Miliband, Yvette Cooper and Dennis Skinner would lose their seats to the Brexit Party it is fair to say neither of the 2 main parties will be rushing to a general election anytime soon
>
> Not intentionally. But unless your mythic Lab MPs emerge the logic of no deal forces a potential GE due to the possibility of a VONC.
And a GE could then see Farage on a No Deal platform sweep to victory unless we have Brexited by then and the Deal has passed or unless a new Tory leader promises to leave Deal or No Deal
> Looking over old bets I put money on Labour to win Chuka's seat when TIG was first founded. Felt so smart a few weeks ago, now I might lose because the LDs take it!
I can't believe Labour lost my London bet. Fucking useless.
> By late July Brexit Party could well be below 20% again.
Alongside labour
> > @MarkHopkins said:
> > > @Quincel said:
> >
> > > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now?
> >
> >
> >
> > Far from it. We now have to be moving to a second referendum with two separate questions: first, Remain or Leave (as in 2016), followed by (if Leave wins) May’s Deal vs No Deal. There’s simply no other viable way out. And it might just save the Tory party.
> >
> >
> > Cannot see why the first question (a re-run of the 2016 ref) is acceptable.
> >
> > Bercow has already made it clear that in parliament a re-introducing of essentially the same bill for approval/rejection is verboten.
> >
> > And the referendum is an outsourcing of paliament's decision-making. So we also cannot re-ask that question. The only concern is how we leave.
>
> A three-way question: Deal, No-deal, Remain - with two votes a week apart, the last placed option in week one dropping out for week two, is surely the way to go.
Why does remain get a second shot?
> > @MarkHopkins said:
> > > @Quincel said:
> >
> > > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now?
> >
> >
> >
> > Far from it. We now have to be moving to a second referendum with two separate questions: first, Remain or Leave (as in 2016), followed by (if Leave wins) May’s Deal vs No Deal. There’s simply no other viable way out. And it might just save the Tory party.
> >
> >
> > Cannot see why the first question (a re-run of the 2016 ref) is acceptable.
> >
> > Bercow has already made it clear that in parliament a re-introducing of essentially the same bill for approval/rejection is verboten.
> >
> > And the referendum is an outsourcing of paliament's decision-making. So we also cannot re-ask that question. The only concern is how we leave.
>
> Not correct. Bercow ruled against voting again on the WA in the same Parliament. We now have a different Parliament to 2016, therefore the ruling does not apply.
The same electorate, though. Unless they want to gerrymander it by extending it to children and EU citizens.
> ...and in Denmark, for Sunday's general election,
> the Danes swing sharply leftwards:
Danish Left has of course gone full on Blue Labour - "here's what you could have won".
> https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1134928626015772672
Corbyn won't be in #10, it'll be Nige at this rate
> Brexit party only party polling mid 20s consistently...
Er... not according to this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > Brexit party only party polling mid 20s consistently...
>
> Er... not according to this:
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019
Think Pulpstar was talking about since the election?
> https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1134928626015772672
And No Brexit at all puts Farage in Number 10 on tonight's Opinium poll
Consider if TBP do get an MP into parliament in this by-election:
Fiona Onasanya provided the name of man she said was driving the car. A Russian. When the police followed this up, the Russians would have confirmed the details. As a result, she was prosecuted, jailed, and kicked out as an MP.
So if/when TBP win, finally the conspiracists will be right, it will be because of the Russians...
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @MarkHopkins said:
> > > > @Quincel said:
> > >
> > > > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now?
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Far from it. We now have to be moving to a second referendum with two separate questions: first, Remain or Leave (as in 2016), followed by (if Leave wins) May’s Deal vs No Deal. There’s simply no other viable way out. And it might just save the Tory party.
> > >
> > >
> > > Cannot see why the first question (a re-run of the 2016 ref) is acceptable.
> > >
> > > Bercow has already made it clear that in parliament a re-introducing of essentially the same bill for approval/rejection is verboten.
> > >
> > > And the referendum is an outsourcing of paliament's decision-making. So we also cannot re-ask that question. The only concern is how we leave.
> >
> > Not correct. Bercow ruled against voting again on the WA in the same Parliament. We now have a different Parliament to 2016, therefore the ruling does not apply.
>
> The same electorate, though. Unless they want to gerrymander it by extending it to children and EU citizens.
It's definitely a different electorate: 15-18 year olds in June 2016 can all now vote... and of course quite a few of the 2016 electorate have sadly but inevitably died.
Corbyn will NEVER get to No. 10. The man is incompetent, and not fit to be leader of the opposition (hell, I doubt he's anything more than annoying MP material) let alone Prime Minister.
In the event of a hung parliament, with Labour on 200 seats with 19% of the vote, I would hope that neither the LD/BXP or CON will work with him to put him in No. 10. I'd rather see Farage there first than that fool.
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > Brexit party only party polling mid 20s consistently...
>
> Er... not according to this:
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019
Since the euros
> > @Benpointer said:
> > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > Brexit party only party polling mid 20s consistently...
> >
> > Er... not according to this:
> >
> > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019
>
> Since the euros
You can add the Deltapoll one to your tally.
> > @RobD said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > > @MarkHopkins said:
> > > > > @Quincel said:
> > > >
> > > > > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now?
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Far from it. We now have to be moving to a second referendum with two separate questions: first, Remain or Leave (as in 2016), followed by (if Leave wins) May’s Deal vs No Deal. There’s simply no other viable way out. And it might just save the Tory party.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Cannot see why the first question (a re-run of the 2016 ref) is acceptable.
> > > >
> > > > Bercow has already made it clear that in parliament a re-introducing of essentially the same bill for approval/rejection is verboten.
> > > >
> > > > And the referendum is an outsourcing of paliament's decision-making. So we also cannot re-ask that question. The only concern is how we leave.
> > >
> > > Not correct. Bercow ruled against voting again on the WA in the same Parliament. We now have a different Parliament to 2016, therefore the ruling does not apply.
> >
> > The same electorate, though. Unless they want to gerrymander it by extending it to children and EU citizens.
>
> It's definitely a different electorate: 15-18 year olds in June 2016 can all now vote... and of course quite a few of the 2016 electorate have sadly but inevitably died.
At the edges perhaps, but the bulk is basically the same.
https://app.flourish.studio/visualisation/393554/
> https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1134930038728667136
The trend is with Boris and looks like leave is gaining
> > @Benpointer said:
> > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > Brexit party only party polling mid 20s consistently...
> >
> > Er... not according to this:
> >
> > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019
>
> Think Pulpstar was talking about since the election?
Well, that's just two polls and one of them BP got 22%, so not mid-20s.
> > @RobD said:
> > > @Benpointer said:
> > > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > Brexit party only party polling mid 20s consistently...
> > >
> > > Er... not according to this:
> > >
> > > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019
> >
> > Think Pulpstar was talking about since the election?
>
> Well, that's just two polls and one of them BP got 22%, so not mid-20s.
Three now and mid twenties is within the margin of error for each.
But more polls like this will still drive the behaviour of the main two parties. The Conservatives think that moving towards a more hard-line leader will solve their woes, yet this risks losing more moderates to the resurgent Lib Dems. Labour may come to realise that their only escape route is to remove Corbyn, however difficult that may be.
In the short-term, what will it take to convince Change UK that their wish for a moderate, anti-Brexit party that the electorate takes seriously has finally come true and that it probably makes sense to join it?
> https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1134930038728667136
Boris on more than Hunt, Gove and Javid combined with both Tory and All voters on that poll. Gove second favourite with All voters, Hunt second favourite with Tory voters
> > @Benpointer said:
> > > @RobD said:
> > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > > @MarkHopkins said:
> > > > > > @Quincel said:
> > > > >
> > > > > > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now?
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Far from it. We now have to be moving to a second referendum with two separate questions: first, Remain or Leave (as in 2016), followed by (if Leave wins) May’s Deal vs No Deal. There’s simply no other viable way out. And it might just save the Tory party.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Cannot see why the first question (a re-run of the 2016 ref) is acceptable.
> > > > >
> > > > > Bercow has already made it clear that in parliament a re-introducing of essentially the same bill for approval/rejection is verboten.
> > > > >
> > > > > And the referendum is an outsourcing of paliament's decision-making. So we also cannot re-ask that question. The only concern is how we leave.
> > > >
> > > > Not correct. Bercow ruled against voting again on the WA in the same Parliament. We now have a different Parliament to 2016, therefore the ruling does not apply.
> > >
> > > The same electorate, though. Unless they want to gerrymander it by extending it to children and EU citizens.
> >
> > It's definitely a different electorate: 15-18 year olds in June 2016 can all now vote... and of course quite a few of the 2016 electorate have sadly but inevitably died.
>
> At the edges perhaps, but the bulk is basically the same.
Swapping 3 years of under 25s in for 3 years of (mainly) over 60s is going to may a noticeable difference.
I still think the Deal would win but at least that would settle it - parliament could approve the WA subject to that referendum, then once Deal won the ref it's a done Deal.
> Remember, Peterborough is precisely the sort of medium sized town Labour need to be winning to win the next GE
Pah! It's a one-off.
TBP will probably win Peterborough - they have the momentum - but we should not assume that will determine the outcome of a future GE which could be anywhere from 3 months to 3 years away.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1134930038728667136
>
> Boris on more than Hunt, Gove and Javid combined with both Tory and All voters on that poll. Gove second favourite with All voters, Hunt second favourite with Tory voters
The Boris and Hunt questions are pretty leading, even if the results do reflect a genuine tendency.
Is it a surprise therefore it is one of the few traditional left of centre parties doing well?
> Predicting election results off these polls is somewhat meaningless as swings of this size will not be uniform. To add to that, the polls themselves are likely to be more variable given the difficulty of measuring insurgent parties. All in all, these results just reinforce the fact that the next election is entirely unpredictable.
>
> But more polls like this will still drive the behaviour of the main two parties. The Conservatives think that moving towards a more hard-line leader will solve their woes, yet this risks losing more moderates to the resurgent Lib Dems. Labour may come to realise that their only escape route is to remove Corbyn, however difficult that may be.
>
> In the short-term, what will it take to convince Change UK that their wish for a moderate, anti-Brexit party that the electorate takes seriously has finally come true and that it probably makes sense to join it?
Welcome aboard - good post!
I suspect CUK will quietly be absorbed into the LDs during the next year or so.
Tis but a flesh wound.
> Is anyone shedding any tears at the collapse in support for the two main parties? Can't say I am particularly.
Nope
> Is anyone shedding any tears at the collapse in support for the two main parties? Can't say I am particularly.
No.
> https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1134924916095168514?s=20
Sounds good to me.
> Is now a good time for an reminder that there are only two viable end states for the UK? Second class satellite of the European Union or full member. Everything else is noise.
Thank you for this pearl of wisdom.
> https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1134924916095168514?s=20
And he still wouldn't be elected Tory leader......
(£)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/donald-trump-interview-send-in-nigel-farage-and-go-for-no-deal-brexit-says-president-d25p3l99b
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1134924916095168514?s=20
>
> Sounds good to me.
Only (if I am correct in assuming that you celebrate the prospect of our staying in the EU) if the Lib Dems were to be less weak and pathetic than they were in 2010 and thus to force Labour, under such a scenario, to adopt electoral reform.
If the Brexit Party replaces the Tories and FPTP remains in place, then the eventual likelihood of a Brexit Party majority in Parliament would be high. And then we'd be out regardless.
> https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1134934213772357634
All a bit comrade delta
The faithful are exempt form the rules.
Yet if you vote Lib Dem.....
> Is now a good time for an reminder that there are only two viable end states for the UK? Second class satellite of the European Union or full member. Everything else is noise.
I can see at least one other.
> @NickPalmer said:
>
> > ...and in Denmark, for Sunday's general election,
> > the Danes swing sharply leftwards:
>
> Danish Left has of course gone full on Blue Labour - "here's what you could have won".
The centre-left surge is not coming from the social democrats but from the social liberals (=LibDems in pro-Labour form) and the socialist people's party (=Tribunite Labour).The main factor is really the collapse of the anti-immigration Eurosceptical Danish people's party.
> Is anyone shedding any tears at the collapse in support for the two main parties? Can't say I am particularly.
Nor me
They made their choices and have to take the consequences
>
> If the Brexit Party replaces the Tories and FPTP remains in place, then the eventual likelihood of a Brexit Party majority in Parliament would be high. And then we'd be out regardless.
----------
I wouldn't make that assumption. "Brexit" by that point could become an abstraction that doesn't literally mean leaving the EU.
> https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1134930038728667136
Another poll suggesting the LibDems are slipping back, but all 4 parties are in with a shot at the moment. I do want to meet the 4% who feel Michael Gove would be fun in a pub - like me, they're the sort of people who go to pubs to discuss select committee reports.
We had a Labour branch meeting the other day after which people lingered to socialise, and fell into arguing the relative virtues of John Stuart Mill and Bentham in utilitarian philosophy. (Brexit? Oh, whatever.)
> https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1134928626015772672
Gove's game is now to burnish his appeal to the Remain majority of Conservative MPs, and hope that he gets into the final ballot with Hunt at the expense of Johnson/Raab. There is a fair chance of that. Once Gove gets that far he'll about turn and become a born again Brexiteer and try and re-establish his credentials to appeal to the Tory membership. Faced with a choice between two Cabinet ministers who facilitated May right to the very end, the members will still choose him over Hunt.
The flaw in that plan is that following today's pronouncement he'll now be seen as a continuity May PM and that would really open the door to Farage to decimate the Tories at a GE.
> Is now a good time for an reminder that there are only two viable end states for the UK? Second class satellite of the European Union or full member. Everything else is noise.
>
> Or we can actually leave.
oh - hello Elephant in the room :-)
> https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1134934998400864257
It is just sickening isn't it.
Politicians looking after their own mates.
> > @Quincel said:
>
> > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now?
>
>
>
> Far from it. We now have to be moving to a second referendum with two separate questions: first, Remain or Leave (as in 2016), followed by (if Leave wins) May’s Deal vs No Deal. There’s simply no other viable way out. And it might just save the Tory party.
>
>
> Cannot see why the first question (a re-run of the 2016 ref) is acceptable.
>
> Bercow has already made it clear that in parliament a re-introducing of essentially the same bill for approval/rejection is verboten.
>
> And the referendum is an outsourcing of paliament's decision-making. So we also cannot re-ask that question. The only concern is how we leave.
>
>
>
> I think the mandate from the referendum is now way out of date.
+1 The fundamental point is the best deal is EU membership, to rule that out in any future referendum is counter to the public interest. If people vote to Leave in a second referendum then, I would accept that but given its impact on the lives of British people for generations to come a three way referendum of No Deal, Deal or No Brexit (Remain) should be instigated to bring this matter to a conclusion.
> > @Quincel said:
>
> > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now?
>
>
>
> Far from it. We now have to be moving to a second referendum with two separate questions: first, Remain or Leave (as in 2016), followed by (if Leave wins) May’s Deal vs No Deal. There’s simply no other viable way out. And it might just save the Tory party.
>
>
> Cannot see why the first question (a re-run of the 2016 ref) is acceptable.
>
> Bercow has already made it clear that in parliament a re-introducing of essentially the same bill for approval/rejection is verboten.
>
> And the referendum is an outsourcing of paliament's decision-making. So we also cannot re-ask that question. The only concern is how we leave.
>
>
>
> I think the mandate from the referendum is now way out of date.
When do you think the government should have invoked article 50?
> Why...just why...would you poll Tory voters on the leadership candidates and not Tory members? These numbers are only vaguely useful, given how niche the memberships can be.
To capture the views of Tory members you would need to poll current Brexit Party voters.
So no. Not really...
> > @Recidivist said:
> > > @Quincel said:
> >
> > > Am I the only person who thinks all this makes a 2019 election super-unlikely, not more likely? What would make Lab/Con vote for an early election right now?
> >
> >
> >
> > Far from it. We now have to be moving to a second referendum with two separate questions: first, Remain or Leave (as in 2016), followed by (if Leave wins) May’s Deal vs No Deal. There’s simply no other viable way out. And it might just save the Tory party.
> >
> >
> > Cannot see why the first question (a re-run of the 2016 ref) is acceptable.
> >
> > Bercow has already made it clear that in parliament a re-introducing of essentially the same bill for approval/rejection is verboten.
> >
> > And the referendum is an outsourcing of paliament's decision-making. So we also cannot re-ask that question. The only concern is how we leave.
> >
> >
> >
> > I think the mandate from the referendum is now way out of date.
>
> +1 The fundamental point is the best deal is EU membership, to rule that out in any future referendum is counter to the public interest. If people vote to Leave in a second referendum then, I would accept that but given its impact on the lives of British people for generations to come a three way referendum of No Deal, Deal or No Brexit (Remain) should be instigated to bring this matter to a conclusion.
>
The best deal is certainly not EUI membership. And it is your insistence on this point and on trying to reverse the referendum result that is making a NO Deal all the more likely. Your fanaticism is just as damaging to the country as that of the ERG. More so in fact because what you are destroying is the basic belief in democracy.
Recent EU elections have actually been a poor guide to the winning party’s fortunes at the subsequent general election. In their regally purple heyday, UKIP under their ex-leader Nigel Farage won the largest share of the vote and the most seats at the most recent EU election in 2014, but their vote halved at the GE the following year, winning only one MP. By contrast, the Tories under David Cameron won the previous 2009 EU election, whilst they were in opposition, and then went on to become largest party at the 2010 GE, and the larger party in the ensuing Con-LibDem coalition. And in 2014, the Tories came a poor third, behind UKIP and Labour, but then went on to win an outright majority at GE 2015.
As is Andrea Leadsom. What is she doing at under 10s?!
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134935913333710848