> @Foxy said: > > @nico67 said: > > > > > But it seems some Labour MPs refuse to accept facts . They just keep peddling the same garbage. The media also peddle the narrative of Leave seats in the north > > > > You keep peddling the same line over and over - and I suspect they know their own constituencies rather better than you do. > > I am from Wigan.
Pah . What would you know about Wigan then? You'll be telling me there isnt a pier next
> @oxfordsimon said: > > @nico67 said: > > > But it seems some Labour MPs refuse to accept facts . They just keep peddling the same garbage. The media also peddle the narrative of Leave seats in the north > > You keep peddling the same line over and over - and I suspect they know their own constituencies rather better than you do. > >
They do know their own constituencies, but they're chasing voters for an imaginary Labour Party, not the one that exists. I totally believe the likes of Lisa Nandy and Caroline Flint when they say large numbers of Labour and ex-Labour voters are deserting the party over Brexit. What they can't explain is why those same voters, who are traditionalist, patriotic and generally anti-immigration, would vote to make a Richard Littlejohn caricature of the silly Islingtonian left, who is not convincingly any of those things, Prime Minister just because he gave them a version of Brexit they don't really like.
Thinking more about BXP, how did Farage find 70 non-mad entirely new candidates, some of them the calibre of the woman on QT, able to capably hold her own on serious national TV against experienced politicians, in about.... ten weeks?
This seems unlikely.
Was he planning this election for many months? If so, that makes him even wilier than I thought. He really is the best politician in Britain - unfortunately.
It did not take a genius to think the big two parties would not manage to get Brexit over the line in time, not after the initial votes and going back even to just the levels of Tory opposition that led to MV1 being pulled. I would not think it surprising if he planned for years just in case the big two failed, and certainly went into overdrive from the beginning of this year at the latest.
> @TudorRose said: > > @Sunil_Prasannan said: > > > > > In effect the court case could end up legitimising Leave's cause. > > > > How on earth is it debatable? We do not send £350m to the EU every week. > > > > We sent "only" £171 million a week in 2017. Net. > > --------------------------------- > And there - in one word - is why it's debatable; 'net'. And, of course, the whole issue was debated at great length at the time. > >
But the "net" is significant because Boris was promising to spend the *gross* amount on the NHS.
> @Foxy said: > 27% of 2017 Labour voters are voting Lib Dem in the YouGov poll aswell as 11% going to the Greens. > > > > The Brexit Party takes just 8% of Labour voters ! > > > > Astonishing that a party is willing to lose that many Remainers to keep 8% happy ! > > > > Problem now is without a change of leadership in Labour even a u turn to properly endorse a second vote might not fully repair the damage . > > > > When will Corbyn get it through his thick skull that the defining issue now is Brexit . Do any of the Nandys or Flints actually bother looking at where Labour is losing votes to or will they keep parroting the same guff about Northern Leave seats . > > In Wigan, Labour lost 19.7% of their vote. LD, Green and CHUK gained 16%. Even there it was to Remain parties that Labour voters were shifting too.
> @Sunil_Prasannan said: > I'd like to be able to edit the Wikipedia page for the Tory leadership because they've got David Evennett down as supporting both Mark Harper and Sajid Javid, but a special editing lock has been put on the page so that most people can't edit it. Maybe someone on PB has editing rights to change it. > > You can always sign up for your own account. > > Sent you a VM by the way.
> @kle4 said: > Thinking more about BXP, how did Farage find 70 non-mad entirely new candidates, some of them the calibre of the woman on QT, able to capably hold her own on serious national TV against experienced politicians, in about.... ten weeks? > > > > This seems unlikely. > > > > Was he planning this election for many months? If so, that makes him even wilier than I thought. He really is the best politician in Britain - unfortunately. > > It did not take a genius to think the big two parties would not manage to get Brexit over the line in time, not after the initial votes and going back even to just the levels of Tory opposition that led to MV1 being pulled. I would not think it surprising if he planned for years just in case the big two failed, and certainly went into overdrive from the beginning of this year at the latest.<
++++
Indeed. But maybe that proves his point. He may be the most repugnant Mr Toad but he really does know Brussels, and he's good at low and high politics. Perhaps he should be leading our negotiation (if there is any to be done). After all, he can't do any worse than Davis, Johnson, May, Cameron et al
> @TheScreamingEagles said: > The polling booth in UK politics is sacrosanct, putting your cross in any box is on your conscious and will never be known. Alistair Campbell didn't just vote LibDems, he was on TV advising Labour Party members to vote LibDem. AC knows the rules, hell, he applied them often enough on any one who disagreed with Blair. He is also involved with the coup plotters up to his neck. There are several others, Hodge, Watson included whose coats are on very shooglie hooks. > > Sounds like fake news to me. > > When did Campbell tell people to vote Lib Dem? Can you provide evidence? > > He only announced he had voted Lib Dem after the polls had closed.
But it is still a signal to Labour voters that voting LibDem is an ok thing to do. On the same basis , a Labour member could reveal he had voted Tory or Brexit Party or BNP. How many would argue that such members should not be expelled?
> @justin124 said: > He only announced he had voted Lib Dem after the polls had closed. > But it is still a signal to Labour voters that voting LibDem is an ok thing to do. On the same basis , a Labour member could reveal he had voted Tory or Brexit Party or BNP. How many would argue that such members should not be expelled? > He knew what he was doing and was looking to make himself a martyr
But that is probably reason enough not to have risen to his bait.
Given Corbyn's long history of rebellion plus his own close connection to and overt support for other political parties/individuals, ignoring Campbell might have been the better option.
But having done it to Campbell, they should follow through and do it to the rest of them.
Making a martyr of Campbell could look petty. Clearing out those all of those who made their public declaration of not voting Labour would be stronger and more consistent.
It looks like they will fail to be strong/consistent.
> > You have come a long way. But I do acknowledge how difficult it must be to advocate leaving a party which has a strong place in your heart. > > The Labour Party that won power under Wilson and Blair is dead. The Momentum Labour Party has little to do with what came before. > > A new party does need to emerge - Realist Labour rather than Faux Purist Labour. > >
Might I suggest that it can be a realist as anything and you still wouldn't vote for it? Did you vote for Wilson or Blair? What you have in mind is a Conservative concept of an acceptable opposition.
> The Brexit Party woman is rather good. Unexpected.
I may be wrong but she had the breezy self-confidence of a privately educated person.
A quick google check suggests she went to Sir Thomas Rich's Grammar School - a selective state school in Gloucester, followed by Durham then Cardiff (diploma in Journalism). She was UKIP's Head of Media but left when Farage did. See LinkedIn
Wasn’t she the Young Conservative who quit after some squabble/scandal?
> > > > A new party does need to emerge - Realist Labour rather than Faux Purist Labour. > > > > > > Might I suggest that it can be a realist as anything and you still wouldn't vote for it? Did you vote for Wilson or Blair? What you have in mind is a Conservative concept of an acceptable opposition.<
+++
The Rochdale Pioneers is copper-bottomed, solid loyal Labour. You should be listening to him/her
> @rottenborough said: > > @oxfordsimon said: > > > @kle4 said: > > > If Jezza doesn't face a massive leadership challenge this summer on those polling numbers then I am a Dutchman. > > > > > > > > > > > > He is f***ed > > > > > > Who challenges him? > > > > > > What if he wins such a challenge? > > > > If he wins, Realist Labour MPs defect to a proper new movement (and refuse to let Chuka in) > > > > Within minutes they can become the second largest group in Parliament and remove Corbyn as LOTO > > > > It can - and needs - be done > > Yep. This summer is the time. Seize the day Tom, seize the day.
The only movement to join now has a name. It is the Liberal Democrats. They are resurgent and the window of opportunity for a new party has closed.
But speaking of new parties, just watching the Cricket highlights and the England colour seems a lot lighter than it used to be. In fact it seems remarkably similar to me to the Brexit Party colours. I'm sure it is a coincidence if so but are they the same/similar colour or do my eyes deceive me?
In Wigan the Brexit Party and UKIP combined got 46% of the vote, more than Labour, the LDs, the Greens and CUK combined
So what?
Do you think that the 16% swing to Remain parties was from UKIP, Tories or former Labour voters? I reckon nearly all from the latter, though probably a few Tories followed Heseltine across.
The Tories cannot out-Farage Farage, so how could Nandy? The Lexiteers have a vision unlikely to appeal.
> @NickPalmer said: > > @oxfordsimon said: > > > > > You have come a long way. But I do acknowledge how difficult it must be to advocate leaving a party which has a strong place in your heart. > > > > The Labour Party that won power under Wilson and Blair is dead. The Momentum Labour Party has little to do with what came before. > > > > A new party does need to emerge - Realist Labour rather than Faux Purist Labour. > > > > > > Might I suggest that it can be a realist as anything and you still wouldn't vote for it? Did you vote for Wilson or Blair? What you have in mind is a Conservative concept of an acceptable opposition.
No doubt Jezza will be on TV tomorrow talking about how his is moving towards a 2nd vote.
> @rottenborough said: > > @Quincel said: > > I feel odd saying this, but I find Barry Gardiner very good on QT. > > I actually find Barry a good communicator. Whether the actual message is garbled nonsense if probably more down to his party than him. > >
He seems to have become the Labour Party's main spokesman - he seems to be on TV constantly unlike pretty much everyone else on the frontbench.
A planned full recount in Ireland south euro constituency could take a month and cost 1 million euro!
And all to decide on who wins a seat in the European parliament between the Greens and Sinn Fein which may never exist if the UK doesn't leave the EU.
But Sinn Fein are apparently demanding it despite the fact that a recheck of 200,000 papers out of 750,000 only saw a reduction in the Green party candidate's 300 vote lead for the last seat (assuming Brexit happens) of precisely 1 vote!
Still if the Lib Dems win the next election we could experience the joys of STV here for general elections. On the 37th count Joe Bloggs has finally reached the quota - a week after polls closed and the exit poll came out.
> @RochdalePioneers said: > > @Foxy said: > > > @nico67 said: > > > > > > > > > But it seems some Labour MPs refuse to accept facts . They just keep peddling the same garbage. The media also peddle the narrative of Leave seats in the north > > > > > > > > You keep peddling the same line over and over - and I suspect they know their own constituencies rather better than you do. > > > > I am from Wigan. > > Pah . What would you know about Wigan then? You'll be telling me there isnt a pier next
> @HYUFD said: > > @Foxy said: > > 27% of 2017 Labour voters are voting Lib Dem in the YouGov poll aswell as 11% going to the Greens. > > > > > > > > The Brexit Party takes just 8% of Labour voters ! > > > > > > > > Astonishing that a party is willing to lose that many Remainers to keep 8% happy ! > > > > > > > > Problem now is without a change of leadership in Labour even a u turn to properly endorse a second vote might not fully repair the damage . > > > > > > > > When will Corbyn get it through his thick skull that the defining issue now is Brexit . Do any of the Nandys or Flints actually bother looking at where Labour is losing votes to or will they keep parroting the same guff about Northern Leave seats . > > > > In Wigan, Labour lost 19.7% of their vote. LD, Green and CHUK gained 16%. Even there it was to Remain parties that Labour voters were shifting too. > > https://twitter.com/election_data/status/1132777393394003968?s=20 > > In Wigan the Brexit Party and UKIP combined got 46% of the vote, more than Labour, the LDs, the Greens and CUK combined
You can't discuss the Wigan result without a pie graph. Yours, a Wiganer.
Meanwhile, on Facebook, Corbyn supporting members are adamant that if only our voters "Google the conference policy" they would understand that Brexit is a Tory problem" and start voting for us again...
> @oxfordsimon said: > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > You may NEED a Lab government, but you aint gonna get one while your leader sits on his fence. > > But it is a very lovely fence - gives him a great view of his allotment
> @brendan16 said: > A planned full recount in Ireland south euro constituency could take a month and cost 1 million euro! > > And all to decide on who wins a seat in the European parliament between the Greens and Sinn Fein which may never exist if the UK doesn't leave the EU. > > But Sinn Fein are apparently demanding it despite the fact that a recheck of 200,000 papers out of 750,000 only saw a reduction in the Green party candidate's 300 vote lead for the last seat (assuming Brexit happens) of precisely 1 vote! > > Still if the Lib Dems win the next election we could experience the joys of STV here for general elections. On the 37th count Joe Bloggs has finally reached the quota - a week after polls closed and the exit poll came out. > > https://www.rte.ie/news/elections-2019/2019/0530/1052522-ireland-south/
Meanwhile, on Facebook, Corbyn supporting members are adamant that if only our voters "Google the conference policy" they would understand that Brexit is a Tory problem" and start voting for us again...
The Jezza cultists stand watching as their Remainer voters walk away.
Surely they cry, this can't happen, I mean what about austerity, what about PIP/DLA, what about foodbanks?
> @RochdalePioneers said: > Meanwhile, on Facebook, Corbyn supporting members are adamant that if only our voters "Google the conference policy" they would understand that Brexit is a Tory problem" and start voting for us again...
I saw one blame this poll on YouGov being a Tory outfit.
> @rottenborough said: > Meanwhile, on Facebook, Corbyn supporting members are adamant that if only our voters "Google the conference policy" they would understand that Brexit is a Tory problem" and start voting for us again... > > The Jezza cultists stand watching as their Remainer voters walk away. > > Surely they cry, this can't happen, I mean what about austerity, what about PIP/DLA, what about foodbanks? > > Too late.
What about them? Say our voters as they go vote for a party they feel they can trust who has a policy position they can understand.
They'll all come back, I am assured. In their millions...
> @williamglenn said: > > @RochdalePioneers said: > > Meanwhile, on Facebook, Corbyn supporting members are adamant that if only our voters "Google the conference policy" they would understand that Brexit is a Tory problem" and start voting for us again... > > I saw one blame this poll on YouGov being a Tory outfit.
it's true. polling companies must be nationalised.
Poll bombshell for Tories and Labour: 'Main parties' slip to joint THIRD on 19% behind Lib Dems and Brexit Party in shock opinion survey after EU vote humiliation
> > Meanwhile, on Facebook, Corbyn supporting members are adamant that if only our voters "Google the conference policy" they would understand that Brexit is a Tory problem" and start voting for us again...
>
> I saw one blame this poll on YouGov being a Tory outfit.
it's true. polling companies must be nationalised.
> @NickPalmer said: > > @oxfordsimon said: > > > > > You have come a long way. But I do acknowledge how difficult it must be to advocate leaving a party which has a strong place in your heart. > > > > The Labour Party that won power under Wilson and Blair is dead. The Momentum Labour Party has little to do with what came before. > > > > A new party does need to emerge - Realist Labour rather than Faux Purist Labour. > > > > > > Might I suggest that it can be a realist as anything and you still wouldn't vote for it? Did you vote for Wilson or Blair? What you have in mind is a Conservative concept of an acceptable opposition.
Nick, it's not possible non-Labour voters I am talking about. I am talking about the Labour Party now dead in Scotland. The Labour Party cut down and composted across swathes of the Midlands and North. I knocked out the Labour voters in the locals. Our data was solid, Labour voters still identified as Labour voters. And then sat on their hands or voted independent. In the Euros those same voters went Brexit one side and LD/Green/even CHUK the other side.
Labour voters point blank refuse to vote for us because of Brexit and because of Corbyn- which is the same issue. If we cannot remove Corbyn then it's time to abandon ship an masse as the Faragistas did UKIP and form new Labour.
The coming election is a fight for relevancy. The Tories are electing a new leader to compete for Brexit votes with Farage. The LibDems are electing a new leader to compete for Remain votes from Tory and Labour. What are we doing? Launching attacks on any dissenters armed with indisputable facts. We either ditch Corbyn or abandon ship.
> @oxfordsimon said: > > @brendan16 said: > > A planned full recount in Ireland south euro constituency could take a month and cost 1 million euro! > > > > And all to decide on who wins a seat in the European parliament between the Greens and Sinn Fein which may never exist if the UK doesn't leave the EU. > > > > But Sinn Fein are apparently demanding it despite the fact that a recheck of 200,000 papers out of 750,000 only saw a reduction in the Green party candidate's 300 vote lead for the last seat (assuming Brexit happens) of precisely 1 vote! > > > > Still if the Lib Dems win the next election we could experience the joys of STV here for general elections. On the 37th count Joe Bloggs has finally reached the quota - a week after polls closed and the exit poll came out. > > > > https://www.rte.ie/news/elections-2019/2019/0530/1052522-ireland-south/ > > The figures and timeline make no sense.
Its a bank holiday weekend in Ireland - so a recount won't begin until Tuesday. And they had 200 people counting - who have day jobs in councils etc. So they need to find enough staff to do the recount who are trained.
It does seem a lot and a long time - but STV is complex and needs counters who know what they are doing and are focused (e.g. you could have a 9th or 10th preference coming into play), there were 23 candidates and the ballot paper was 2 foot long. Doing it electronically won't work either as people rank 1,2,3,4,5,6 etc etc and people write numbers in different styles which a computerised system might struggle with.
Of course Sinn Fein could have the decency to concede.
> @oxfordsimon said: > > @brendan16 said: > > A planned full recount in Ireland south euro constituency could take a month and cost 1 million euro! > > > > And all to decide on who wins a seat in the European parliament between the Greens and Sinn Fein which may never exist if the UK doesn't leave the EU. > > > > But Sinn Fein are apparently demanding it despite the fact that a recheck of 200,000 papers out of 750,000 only saw a reduction in the Green party candidate's 300 vote lead for the last seat (assuming Brexit happens) of precisely 1 vote! > > > > Still if the Lib Dems win the next election we could experience the joys of STV here for general elections. On the 37th count Joe Bloggs has finally reached the quota - a week after polls closed and the exit poll came out. > > > > https://www.rte.ie/news/elections-2019/2019/0530/1052522-ireland-south/ > > The figures and timeline make no sense.
I know I've said this before, but surely they could use scanners and computers?
> @oxfordsimon said: > > @AndyJS said: > > "Julian Assange is sick and being tortured, claims UN expert" (£) > > > > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/julian-assange-is-sick-and-being-tortured-claims-un-expert-dhhhsl56v > > Where are the UN getting their 'experts' from these days? Snowflakes-r-us.com?? > > No matter the failings of our criminal justice and prison systems, we do not engage in torture. > > Assange broke the law and is serving his time. End of. He deserves no special protection or treatment.
Clearly the same place they got that idiot who claimed 13 million people in the UK were in poverty.
IIRC at the last general election there was a UN team from Africa who were appalled by the lack of ID checks at our polling stations. What they didn't understand was that 99.9% of polling stations function perfectly well without ID checks.
> @FrancisUrquhart said: > > @oxfordsimon said: > > > @AndyJS said: > > > "Julian Assange is sick and being tortured, claims UN expert" (£) > > > > > > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/julian-assange-is-sick-and-being-tortured-claims-un-expert-dhhhsl56v > > > > Where are the UN getting their 'experts' from these days? Snowflakes-r-us.com?? > > > > No matter the failings of our criminal justice and prison systems, we do not engage in torture. > > > > Assange broke the law and is serving his time. End of. He deserves no special protection or treatment. > > Clearly the same place they got that idiot who claimed 13 million people in the UK were in poverty.
It is behaviour like that which makes me wonder what the point of the UN is these days... there are bigger problems in the world that need attention - but no, the UN want to look out for the interests of Assange...
> > You have come a long way. But I do acknowledge how difficult it must be to advocate leaving a party which has a strong place in your heart.
> >
> > The Labour Party that won power under Wilson and Blair is dead. The Momentum Labour Party has little to do with what came before.
> >
> > A new party does need to emerge - Realist Labour rather than Faux Purist Labour.
> >
> >
>
> Might I suggest that it can be a realist as anything and you still wouldn't vote for it? Did you vote for Wilson or Blair? What you have in mind is a Conservative concept of an acceptable opposition.
Nick, it's not possible non-Labour voters I am talking about. I am talking about the Labour Party now dead in Scotland. The Labour Party cut down and composted across swathes of the Midlands and North. I knocked out the Labour voters in the locals. Our data was solid, Labour voters still identified as Labour voters. And then sat on their hands or voted independent. In the Euros those same voters went Brexit one side and LD/Green/even CHUK the other side.
Labour voters point blank refuse to vote for us because of Brexit and because of Corbyn- which is the same issue. If we cannot remove Corbyn then it's time to abandon ship an masse as the Faragistas did UKIP and form new Labour.
The coming election is a fight for relevancy. The Tories are electing a new leader to compete for Brexit votes with Farage. The LibDems are electing a new leader to compete for Remain votes from Tory and Labour. What are we doing? Launching attacks on any dissenters armed with indisputable facts. We either ditch Corbyn or abandon ship.
> @brendan16 said: > A planned full recount in Ireland south euro constituency could take a month and cost 1 million euro! > > And all to decide on who wins a seat in the European parliament between the Greens and Sinn Fein which may never exist if the UK doesn't leave the EU. > > But Sinn Fein are apparently demanding it despite the fact that a recheck of 200,000 papers out of 750,000 only saw a reduction in the Green party candidate's 300 vote lead for the last seat (assuming Brexit happens) of precisely 1 vote! > > Still if the Lib Dems win the next election we could experience the joys of STV here for general elections. On the 37th count Joe Bloggs has finally reached the quota - a week after polls closed and the exit poll came out. > > https://www.rte.ie/news/elections-2019/2019/0530/1052522-ireland-south/
A million euros for counting 750,000 votes? Amazing how the costs add up when it's not your money. I'll do it for half a million.
> @Byronic said: > > @Quincel said: > > I feel odd saying this, but I find Barry Gardiner very good on QT.< > > +++++ > > He is one of my Guilty Pleasures, as well. He is sane, smart, articulate and sometimes rather witty. I feel sorry for him, having to evangelise for Corbyn, a man he clearly despises. > > He has an intriguing backstory too > > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barry_Gardiner
i was about to post the same thing in the same terms!
The YouGov tabs are now up and there are significant regional differences.
In the North Labour is still ahead on 29% but with the Brexit Party just behind on 26%, in the Midlands and Wales the Brexit Party lead on 29% with the Tories second on 21%.
The LDs rise is concentrated in London where they lead on 34% to 24% for second placed Labour and in the South where the LDs lead the Tories and Brexit Party 32% to the latter's 21% each.
In Scotland there is little change with the SNP ahead on 44% and the Tories second on 19%
> @Byronic said: > > @NickPalmer said: > > > > > > > A new party does need to emerge - Realist Labour rather than Faux Purist Labour. > > > > > > > > > > Might I suggest that it can be a realist as anything and you still wouldn't vote for it? Did you vote for Wilson or Blair? What you have in mind is a Conservative concept of an acceptable opposition.< > > +++ > > The Rochdale Pioneers is copper-bottomed, solid loyal Labour. You should be listening to him/her > > Your base is deserting you.
> @stjohn said: > > @Byronic said: > > > @Quincel said: > > > I feel odd saying this, but I find Barry Gardiner very good on QT.< > > > > +++++ > > > > He is one of my Guilty Pleasures, as well. He is sane, smart, articulate and sometimes rather witty. I feel sorry for him, having to evangelise for Corbyn, a man he clearly despises. > > > > He has an intriguing backstory too > > > > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barry_Gardiner > > i was about to post the same thing in the same terms! > > Barry Gardiner. Guilty Pleasure. > > Who knew?
Wiki says he was a junior minister under Blair/Brown.
Oh dear, the gulag awaits for this Red Tory running dog.
> @AndyJS said: > Twitter is excellent for facts and figures, but the worst possible way of conducting political debate. Donald Trump is proof of that.
FAKE!! Twitter is the BEST. Nothing comes close to IT for GREAT OPINIONS and STUFF about POLITICS.
> @rottenborough said: > Harper is in the race. > > Is that 12. I have lost count?
ITN News was definitely reporting that Jesse Norman was standing earlier this evening at about 6pm, but all those reports have disappeared from their website: I'm guessing means they made a mistake and he hasn't made a final decision yet. So it's back to 12 again, not 13 as I'd thought. He was on my spreadsheet until a few minutes ago.
It can't be long before a newspaper columnist makes a joke about there being more Tory leadership candidates than the Conservative polling percentage. At the moment the numbers are 12 and 19.
The Tories have lost their core vote to the Lib Dems, and will get lost chasing after votes in Labour areas. They can’t make up for losing Wokingham, Maidenhead and Esher to the Lib Dems by trying to out-Brexit the Brexit Party in Wigan, Hull or Bolsover.
> @AndyJS said: > Absolutely right from the latest contribution on QT: the density of population in the South East is ridiculous. Scotland and Wales need to take more people.
A new low for Mrs May in 'Best PM' rating 23 (-7) and Corbyn near his all-time lowest (14) at 15 (-4).
Neither Con (45) nor Lab (47) have held on to their 2017 voters, unlike the LibDems (83).
The former Tories have gone mainly to the Brexit Party (38) with some Lib Dems (11) while Labours are more spread out LibDem (27), Green (11), Brexit (8)
> @williamglenn said: > > @HYUFD said: > > The Brexit Party now lead with working class C2DEs on 29% to 24% for second placed Labour. > > > > The LDs lead with middle class ABC1s on 29% to 20% for the second placed Tories > > > > https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k5jkiheowo/TheTimes_190529_VI_Trackers_w.pdf > > The Tories have lost their core vote to the Lib Dems, and will get lost chasing after votes in Labour areas. They can’t make up for losing Wokingham, Maidenhead and Esher to the Lib Dems by trying to out-Brexit the Brexit Party in Wigan, Hull or Bolsover.
According to YouGov 38% of 2017 Tories will now be voting Brexit Party and only 11% have defected to the LDs. The Tory core vote has gone to the Brexit Party more than the Liberal Democrats. Plus of the remaining Tory voters they comprise 30% of Leave voters but only 11% of Remain voters.
Indeed according to Electoral calculus the Tories would lose more seats to the Brexit Party than they would lose to the LDs
> @another_richard said: > > @AndyJS said: > > Absolutely right from the latest contribution on QT: the density of population in the South East is ridiculous. Scotland and Wales need to take more people. > > Which people in particular ?
It would take a special sort of masochist to want to subject yourself to more Sturgeon...
If you look over a longer timescale, it’s the ones going to the Lib Dems that do the most structural damage to the Tories electoral prospects. It’s not just a question of raw numbers.
> @HYUFD said: > > According to YouGov 38% of 2017 Tories will now be voting Brexit Party and only 11% have defected to the LDs. The Tory core vote has gone to the Brexit Party more than the Liberal Democrats. Plus of the remaining Tory voters they comprise 30% of Leave voters but only 11% of Remain voters. > > Indeed according to Electoral calculus the Tories would lose more seats to the Brexit Party than they would lose to the LDs > ————— By trying to win back the Brexit Party vote they’ll drive away loyalists like Richard Nabavi. It’s a vicious circle.
> @CarlottaVance said: > A new low for Mrs May in 'Best PM' rating 23 (-7) and Corbyn near his all-time lowest (14) at 15 (-4). > > Neither Con (45) nor Lab (47) have held on to their 2017 voters, unlike the LibDems (83). > > The former Tories have gone mainly to the Brexit Party (38) with some Lib Dems (11) while Labours are more spread out LibDem (27), Green (11), Brexit (8)
The Labour share lost to the LDs and Greens combined is the same as the Tory share lost to the Brexit Party then
> @williamglenn said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > > According to YouGov 38% of 2017 Tories will now be voting Brexit Party and only 11% have defected to the LDs. The Tory core vote has gone to the Brexit Party more than the Liberal Democrats. Plus of the remaining Tory voters they comprise 30% of Leave voters but only 11% of Remain voters. > > > > Indeed according to Electoral calculus the Tories would lose more seats to the Brexit Party than they would lose to the LDs > > > ————— > By trying to win back the Brexit Party vote they’ll drive away loyalists like Richard Nabavi. It’s a vicious circle.
The Tories actually won C2s in 2017 as well as ABs and indeed the ABs who voted Tory still tended to be Leavers.
Richard Navabi is not going to replace C2 swing voters lost to the Brexit Party by the Tories in Midlands marginal seats
> @williamglenn said: > > @HYUFD said: > > The Brexit Party now lead with working class C2DEs on 29% to 24% for second placed Labour. > > > > The LDs lead with middle class ABC1s on 29% to 20% for the second placed Tories > > > > https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k5jkiheowo/TheTimes_190529_VI_Trackers_w.pdf > > The Tories have lost their core vote to the Lib Dems, and will get lost chasing after votes in Labour areas. They can’t make up for losing Wokingham, Maidenhead and Esher to the Lib Dems by trying to out-Brexit the Brexit Party in Wigan, Hull or Bolsover.
The Conservatives aren't going to lose Wokingham, Maidenhead and Esher.
And a quick look at the election results of 2010 onwards shows that the Conservatives have steadily become more dependent upon working class areas - Mansfield, Derbyshire NE, Stoke S etc.
It's not chaos - it's people staking a claim to the future of their party. The fact that so many are willing to take on the challenge is more a sign of strength than weakness.
Fair enough that some of the candidates are not suitable, some are standing in hope of preferment in the future and some are just wasting their own time. But they are willing to put themselves forward.
Most will fall away rapidly but they will have tried.
> > > I feel odd saying this, but I find Barry Gardiner very good on QT.<
> >
> > +++++
> >
> > He is one of my Guilty Pleasures, as well. He is sane, smart, articulate and sometimes rather witty. I feel sorry for him, having to evangelise for Corbyn, a man he clearly despises.
It's not chaos - it's people staking a claim to the future of their party. The fact that so many are willing to take on the challenge is more a sign of strength than weakness.
Fair enough that some of the candidates are not suitable, some are standing in hope of preferment in the future and some are just wasting their own time. But they are willing to put themselves forward.
Most will fall away rapidly but they will have tried.
Indeed. For some of those standing this is a once-in-a-lifetime shot of becoming Prime Minister. Even if it’s just a 1% chance of it happening, it probably feels worth it.
> > > I feel odd saying this, but I find Barry Gardiner very good on QT.<
> >
> > +++++
> >
> > He is one of my Guilty Pleasures, as well. He is sane, smart, articulate and sometimes rather witty. I feel sorry for him, having to evangelise for Corbyn, a man he clearly despises.
> @CarlottaVance said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > The Brexit Party now lead with working class C2DEs on 29% to 24% for second placed Labour. > > > > > > The LDs lead with middle class ABC1s on 29% to 20% for the second placed Tories > > > > > > https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k5jkiheowo/TheTimes_190529_VI_Trackers_w.pdf > > > > The Tories have lost their core vote to the Lib Dems > > Nope - nearly 4 times as many (38) have gone to the Brexit Party as the LibDems (11). Its Labour's defectors who are fragmenting.
Notable that those polled had to say other and then nominate the Brexit party and Greens - whereas the Lib Dem, Labour and Tory main parties are prompted on the key voting questions. So this might slightly overstate the position for the three established main parties in reality.
Comments
> > @nico67 said:
>
>
>
> > But it seems some Labour MPs refuse to accept facts . They just keep peddling the same garbage. The media also peddle the narrative of Leave seats in the north
>
>
>
> You keep peddling the same line over and over - and I suspect they know their own constituencies rather better than you do.
>
> I am from Wigan.
Pah . What would you know about Wigan then? You'll be telling me there isnt a pier next
> > @nico67 said:
>
> > But it seems some Labour MPs refuse to accept facts . They just keep peddling the same garbage. The media also peddle the narrative of Leave seats in the north
>
> You keep peddling the same line over and over - and I suspect they know their own constituencies rather better than you do.
>
>
They do know their own constituencies, but they're chasing voters for an imaginary Labour Party, not the one that exists. I totally believe the likes of Lisa Nandy and Caroline Flint when they say large numbers of Labour and ex-Labour voters are deserting the party over Brexit. What they can't explain is why those same voters, who are traditionalist, patriotic and generally anti-immigration, would vote to make a Richard Littlejohn caricature of the silly Islingtonian left, who is not convincingly any of those things, Prime Minister just because he gave them a version of Brexit they don't really like.
> > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
>
> >
> > In effect the court case could end up legitimising Leave's cause.
> >
> > How on earth is it debatable? We do not send £350m to the EU every week.
> >
> > We sent "only" £171 million a week in 2017. Net.
>
> ---------------------------------
> And there - in one word - is why it's debatable; 'net'. And, of course, the whole issue was debated at great length at the time.
>
>
But the "net" is significant because Boris was promising to spend the *gross* amount on the NHS.
> 27% of 2017 Labour voters are voting Lib Dem in the YouGov poll aswell as 11% going to the Greens.
>
>
>
> The Brexit Party takes just 8% of Labour voters !
>
>
>
> Astonishing that a party is willing to lose that many Remainers to keep 8% happy !
>
>
>
> Problem now is without a change of leadership in Labour even a u turn to properly endorse a second vote might not fully repair the damage .
>
>
>
> When will Corbyn get it through his thick skull that the defining issue now is Brexit . Do any of the Nandys or Flints actually bother looking at where Labour is losing votes to or will they keep parroting the same guff about Northern Leave seats .
>
> In Wigan, Labour lost 19.7% of their vote. LD, Green and CHUK gained 16%. Even there it was to Remain parties that Labour voters were shifting too.
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/1132777393394003968?s=20
In Wigan the Brexit Party and UKIP combined got 46% of the vote, more than Labour, the LDs, the Greens and CUK combined
> I'd like to be able to edit the Wikipedia page for the Tory leadership because they've got David Evennett down as supporting both Mark Harper and Sajid Javid, but a special editing lock has been put on the page so that most people can't edit it. Maybe someone on PB has editing rights to change it.
>
> You can always sign up for your own account.
>
> Sent you a VM by the way.
Thanks.
> Thinking more about BXP, how did Farage find 70 non-mad entirely new candidates, some of them the calibre of the woman on QT, able to capably hold her own on serious national TV against experienced politicians, in about.... ten weeks?
>
>
>
> This seems unlikely.
>
>
>
> Was he planning this election for many months? If so, that makes him even wilier than I thought. He really is the best politician in Britain - unfortunately.
>
> It did not take a genius to think the big two parties would not manage to get Brexit over the line in time, not after the initial votes and going back even to just the levels of Tory opposition that led to MV1 being pulled. I would not think it surprising if he planned for years just in case the big two failed, and certainly went into overdrive from the beginning of this year at the latest.<
++++
Indeed. But maybe that proves his point. He may be the most repugnant Mr Toad but he really does know Brussels, and he's good at low and high politics. Perhaps he should be leading our negotiation (if there is any to be done). After all, he can't do any worse than Davis, Johnson, May, Cameron et al
> The polling booth in UK politics is sacrosanct, putting your cross in any box is on your conscious and will never be known. Alistair Campbell didn't just vote LibDems, he was on TV advising Labour Party members to vote LibDem. AC knows the rules, hell, he applied them often enough on any one who disagreed with Blair. He is also involved with the coup plotters up to his neck. There are several others, Hodge, Watson included whose coats are on very shooglie hooks.
>
> Sounds like fake news to me.
>
> When did Campbell tell people to vote Lib Dem? Can you provide evidence?
>
> He only announced he had voted Lib Dem after the polls had closed.
But it is still a signal to Labour voters that voting LibDem is an ok thing to do. On the same basis , a Labour member could reveal he had voted Tory or Brexit Party or BNP. How many would argue that such members should not be expelled?
> He only announced he had voted Lib Dem after the polls had closed.
> But it is still a signal to Labour voters that voting LibDem is an ok thing to do. On the same basis , a Labour member could reveal he had voted Tory or Brexit Party or BNP. How many would argue that such members should not be expelled?
>
He knew what he was doing and was looking to make himself a martyr
But that is probably reason enough not to have risen to his bait.
Given Corbyn's long history of rebellion plus his own close connection to and overt support for other political parties/individuals, ignoring Campbell might have been the better option.
But having done it to Campbell, they should follow through and do it to the rest of them.
Making a martyr of Campbell could look petty. Clearing out those all of those who made their public declaration of not voting Labour would be stronger and more consistent.
It looks like they will fail to be strong/consistent.
>
> You have come a long way. But I do acknowledge how difficult it must be to advocate leaving a party which has a strong place in your heart.
>
> The Labour Party that won power under Wilson and Blair is dead. The Momentum Labour Party has little to do with what came before.
>
> A new party does need to emerge - Realist Labour rather than Faux Purist Labour.
>
>
Might I suggest that it can be a realist as anything and you still wouldn't vote for it? Did you vote for Wilson or Blair? What you have in mind is a Conservative concept of an acceptable opposition.
> >
> > A new party does need to emerge - Realist Labour rather than Faux Purist Labour.
> >
> >
>
> Might I suggest that it can be a realist as anything and you still wouldn't vote for it? Did you vote for Wilson or Blair? What you have in mind is a Conservative concept of an acceptable opposition.<
+++
The Rochdale Pioneers is copper-bottomed, solid loyal Labour. You should be listening to him/her
Your base is deserting you.
https://twitter.com/alidogan_uk/status/1134200632666198024
> As LibDems top the polls, this is what the Cult are talking about tonight:
>
> https://twitter.com/alidogan_uk/status/1134200632666198024
You may NEED a Lab government, but you aint gonna get one while your leader sits on his fence.
> > @oxfordsimon said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> > > If Jezza doesn't face a massive leadership challenge this summer on those polling numbers then I am a Dutchman.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > He is f***ed
> > >
> > > Who challenges him?
> > >
> > > What if he wins such a challenge?
> >
> > If he wins, Realist Labour MPs defect to a proper new movement (and refuse to let Chuka in)
> >
> > Within minutes they can become the second largest group in Parliament and remove Corbyn as LOTO
> >
> > It can - and needs - be done
>
> Yep. This summer is the time. Seize the day Tom, seize the day.
The only movement to join now has a name. It is the Liberal Democrats. They are resurgent and the window of opportunity for a new party has closed.
But speaking of new parties, just watching the Cricket highlights and the England colour seems a lot lighter than it used to be. In fact it seems remarkably similar to me to the Brexit Party colours. I'm sure it is a coincidence if so but are they the same/similar colour or do my eyes deceive me?
Do you think that the 16% swing to Remain parties was from UKIP, Tories or former Labour voters? I reckon nearly all from the latter, though probably a few Tories followed Heseltine across.
The Tories cannot out-Farage Farage, so how could Nandy? The Lexiteers have a vision unlikely to appeal.
>
> You may NEED a Lab government, but you aint gonna get one while your leader sits on his fence.
But it is a very lovely fence - gives him a great view of his allotment
> > @oxfordsimon said:
>
> >
> > You have come a long way. But I do acknowledge how difficult it must be to advocate leaving a party which has a strong place in your heart.
> >
> > The Labour Party that won power under Wilson and Blair is dead. The Momentum Labour Party has little to do with what came before.
> >
> > A new party does need to emerge - Realist Labour rather than Faux Purist Labour.
> >
> >
>
> Might I suggest that it can be a realist as anything and you still wouldn't vote for it? Did you vote for Wilson or Blair? What you have in mind is a Conservative concept of an acceptable opposition.
No doubt Jezza will be on TV tomorrow talking about how his is moving towards a 2nd vote.
Too late. He has been rumbled.
> > @Quincel said:
> > I feel odd saying this, but I find Barry Gardiner very good on QT.
>
> I actually find Barry a good communicator. Whether the actual message is garbled nonsense if probably more down to his party than him.
>
>
He seems to have become the Labour Party's main spokesman - he seems to be on TV constantly unlike pretty much everyone else on the frontbench.
And all to decide on who wins a seat in the European parliament between the Greens and Sinn Fein which may never exist if the UK doesn't leave the EU.
But Sinn Fein are apparently demanding it despite the fact that a recheck of 200,000 papers out of 750,000 only saw a reduction in the Green party candidate's 300 vote lead for the last seat (assuming Brexit happens) of precisely 1 vote!
Still if the Lib Dems win the next election we could experience the joys of STV here for general elections. On the 37th count Joe Bloggs has finally reached the quota - a week after polls closed and the exit poll came out.
https://www.rte.ie/news/elections-2019/2019/0530/1052522-ireland-south/
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> >
> >
> >
> > > But it seems some Labour MPs refuse to accept facts . They just keep peddling the same garbage. The media also peddle the narrative of Leave seats in the north
> >
> >
> >
> > You keep peddling the same line over and over - and I suspect they know their own constituencies rather better than you do.
> >
> > I am from Wigan.
>
> Pah . What would you know about Wigan then? You'll be telling me there isnt a pier next
> @HYUFD said:
> > @Foxy said:
> > 27% of 2017 Labour voters are voting Lib Dem in the YouGov poll aswell as 11% going to the Greens.
> >
> >
> >
> > The Brexit Party takes just 8% of Labour voters !
> >
> >
> >
> > Astonishing that a party is willing to lose that many Remainers to keep 8% happy !
> >
> >
> >
> > Problem now is without a change of leadership in Labour even a u turn to properly endorse a second vote might not fully repair the damage .
> >
> >
> >
> > When will Corbyn get it through his thick skull that the defining issue now is Brexit . Do any of the Nandys or Flints actually bother looking at where Labour is losing votes to or will they keep parroting the same guff about Northern Leave seats .
> >
> > In Wigan, Labour lost 19.7% of their vote. LD, Green and CHUK gained 16%. Even there it was to Remain parties that Labour voters were shifting too.
>
> https://twitter.com/election_data/status/1132777393394003968?s=20
>
> In Wigan the Brexit Party and UKIP combined got 46% of the vote, more than Labour, the LDs, the Greens and CUK combined
You can't discuss the Wigan result without a pie graph. Yours, a Wiganer.
> > @rottenborough said:
>
> >
> > You may NEED a Lab government, but you aint gonna get one while your leader sits on his fence.
>
> But it is a very lovely fence - gives him a great view of his allotment
> A planned full recount in Ireland south euro constituency could take a month and cost 1 million euro!
>
> And all to decide on who wins a seat in the European parliament between the Greens and Sinn Fein which may never exist if the UK doesn't leave the EU.
>
> But Sinn Fein are apparently demanding it despite the fact that a recheck of 200,000 papers out of 750,000 only saw a reduction in the Green party candidate's 300 vote lead for the last seat (assuming Brexit happens) of precisely 1 vote!
>
> Still if the Lib Dems win the next election we could experience the joys of STV here for general elections. On the 37th count Joe Bloggs has finally reached the quota - a week after polls closed and the exit poll came out.
>
> https://www.rte.ie/news/elections-2019/2019/0530/1052522-ireland-south/
The figures and timeline make no sense.
Surely they cry, this can't happen, I mean what about austerity, what about PIP/DLA, what about foodbanks?
Too late.
https://twitter.com/liamyoung/status/1134206639748386832
> Meanwhile, on Facebook, Corbyn supporting members are adamant that if only our voters "Google the conference policy" they would understand that Brexit is a Tory problem" and start voting for us again...
I saw one blame this poll on YouGov being a Tory outfit.
> Meanwhile, on Facebook, Corbyn supporting members are adamant that if only our voters "Google the conference policy" they would understand that Brexit is a Tory problem" and start voting for us again...
>
> The Jezza cultists stand watching as their Remainer voters walk away.
>
> Surely they cry, this can't happen, I mean what about austerity, what about PIP/DLA, what about foodbanks?
>
> Too late.
What about them? Say our voters as they go vote for a party they feel they can trust who has a policy position they can understand.
They'll all come back, I am assured. In their millions...
> > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > Meanwhile, on Facebook, Corbyn supporting members are adamant that if only our voters "Google the conference policy" they would understand that Brexit is a Tory problem" and start voting for us again...
>
> I saw one blame this poll on YouGov being a Tory outfit.
it's true. polling companies must be nationalised.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/julian-assange-is-sick-and-being-tortured-claims-un-expert-dhhhsl56v
Poll bombshell for Tories and Labour: 'Main parties' slip to joint THIRD on 19% behind Lib Dems and Brexit Party in shock opinion survey after EU vote humiliation
> > @oxfordsimon said:
>
> >
> > You have come a long way. But I do acknowledge how difficult it must be to advocate leaving a party which has a strong place in your heart.
> >
> > The Labour Party that won power under Wilson and Blair is dead. The Momentum Labour Party has little to do with what came before.
> >
> > A new party does need to emerge - Realist Labour rather than Faux Purist Labour.
> >
> >
>
> Might I suggest that it can be a realist as anything and you still wouldn't vote for it? Did you vote for Wilson or Blair? What you have in mind is a Conservative concept of an acceptable opposition.
Nick, it's not possible non-Labour voters I am talking about. I am talking about the Labour Party now dead in Scotland. The Labour Party cut down and composted across swathes of the Midlands and North. I knocked out the Labour voters in the locals. Our data was solid, Labour voters still identified as Labour voters. And then sat on their hands or voted independent. In the Euros those same voters went Brexit one side and LD/Green/even CHUK the other side.
Labour voters point blank refuse to vote for us because of Brexit and because of Corbyn- which is the same issue. If we cannot remove Corbyn then it's time to abandon ship an masse as the Faragistas did UKIP and form new Labour.
The coming election is a fight for relevancy. The Tories are electing a new leader to compete for Brexit votes with Farage. The LibDems are electing a new leader to compete for Remain votes from Tory and Labour. What are we doing? Launching attacks on any dissenters armed with indisputable facts. We either ditch Corbyn or abandon ship.
> "Julian Assange is sick and being tortured, claims UN expert" (£)
>
> https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/julian-assange-is-sick-and-being-tortured-claims-un-expert-dhhhsl56v
Where are the UN getting their 'experts' from these days? Snowflakes-r-us.com??
No matter the failings of our criminal justice and prison systems, we do not engage in torture.
Assange broke the law and is serving his time. End of. He deserves no special protection or treatment.
> > @brendan16 said:
> > A planned full recount in Ireland south euro constituency could take a month and cost 1 million euro!
> >
> > And all to decide on who wins a seat in the European parliament between the Greens and Sinn Fein which may never exist if the UK doesn't leave the EU.
> >
> > But Sinn Fein are apparently demanding it despite the fact that a recheck of 200,000 papers out of 750,000 only saw a reduction in the Green party candidate's 300 vote lead for the last seat (assuming Brexit happens) of precisely 1 vote!
> >
> > Still if the Lib Dems win the next election we could experience the joys of STV here for general elections. On the 37th count Joe Bloggs has finally reached the quota - a week after polls closed and the exit poll came out.
> >
> > https://www.rte.ie/news/elections-2019/2019/0530/1052522-ireland-south/
>
> The figures and timeline make no sense.
Its a bank holiday weekend in Ireland - so a recount won't begin until Tuesday. And they had 200 people counting - who have day jobs in councils etc. So they need to find enough staff to do the recount who are trained.
It does seem a lot and a long time - but STV is complex and needs counters who know what they are doing and are focused (e.g. you could have a 9th or 10th preference coming into play), there were 23 candidates and the ballot paper was 2 foot long. Doing it electronically won't work either as people rank 1,2,3,4,5,6 etc etc and people write numbers in different styles which a computerised system might struggle with.
Of course Sinn Fein could have the decency to concede.
> > @brendan16 said:
> > A planned full recount in Ireland south euro constituency could take a month and cost 1 million euro!
> >
> > And all to decide on who wins a seat in the European parliament between the Greens and Sinn Fein which may never exist if the UK doesn't leave the EU.
> >
> > But Sinn Fein are apparently demanding it despite the fact that a recheck of 200,000 papers out of 750,000 only saw a reduction in the Green party candidate's 300 vote lead for the last seat (assuming Brexit happens) of precisely 1 vote!
> >
> > Still if the Lib Dems win the next election we could experience the joys of STV here for general elections. On the 37th count Joe Bloggs has finally reached the quota - a week after polls closed and the exit poll came out.
> >
> > https://www.rte.ie/news/elections-2019/2019/0530/1052522-ireland-south/
>
> The figures and timeline make no sense.
I know I've said this before, but surely they could use scanners and computers?
> > @AndyJS said:
> > "Julian Assange is sick and being tortured, claims UN expert" (£)
> >
> > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/julian-assange-is-sick-and-being-tortured-claims-un-expert-dhhhsl56v
>
> Where are the UN getting their 'experts' from these days? Snowflakes-r-us.com??
>
> No matter the failings of our criminal justice and prison systems, we do not engage in torture.
>
> Assange broke the law and is serving his time. End of. He deserves no special protection or treatment.
Clearly the same place they got that idiot who claimed 13 million people in the UK were in poverty.
> > @oxfordsimon said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > "Julian Assange is sick and being tortured, claims UN expert" (£)
> > >
> > > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/julian-assange-is-sick-and-being-tortured-claims-un-expert-dhhhsl56v
> >
> > Where are the UN getting their 'experts' from these days? Snowflakes-r-us.com??
> >
> > No matter the failings of our criminal justice and prison systems, we do not engage in torture.
> >
> > Assange broke the law and is serving his time. End of. He deserves no special protection or treatment.
>
> Clearly the same place they got that idiot who claimed 13 million people in the UK were in poverty.
It is behaviour like that which makes me wonder what the point of the UN is these days... there are bigger problems in the world that need attention - but no, the UN want to look out for the interests of Assange...
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1134240653926232064?s=21
> twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1134240653926232064?s=21
I would if he informed anybody before he tweeted that?
> A planned full recount in Ireland south euro constituency could take a month and cost 1 million euro!
>
> And all to decide on who wins a seat in the European parliament between the Greens and Sinn Fein which may never exist if the UK doesn't leave the EU.
>
> But Sinn Fein are apparently demanding it despite the fact that a recheck of 200,000 papers out of 750,000 only saw a reduction in the Green party candidate's 300 vote lead for the last seat (assuming Brexit happens) of precisely 1 vote!
>
> Still if the Lib Dems win the next election we could experience the joys of STV here for general elections. On the 37th count Joe Bloggs has finally reached the quota - a week after polls closed and the exit poll came out.
>
> https://www.rte.ie/news/elections-2019/2019/0530/1052522-ireland-south/
A million euros for counting 750,000 votes? Amazing how the costs add up when it's not your money. I'll do it for half a million.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1134240657621438464?s=20
> > @Quincel said:
> > I feel odd saying this, but I find Barry Gardiner very good on QT.<
>
> +++++
>
> He is one of my Guilty Pleasures, as well. He is sane, smart, articulate and sometimes rather witty. I feel sorry for him, having to evangelise for Corbyn, a man he clearly despises.
>
> He has an intriguing backstory too
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barry_Gardiner
i was about to post the same thing in the same terms!
Barry Gardiner. Guilty Pleasure.
Who knew?
'They don’t make 'em like Joe anymore'
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/05/30/joe-biden-congressional-endorsements-1347598
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134207549249654786
Winning here!
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134207549249654786
We are close to Lib-Tory crossover - just not how either of them thought!!!
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1134243246438309889?s=20
In the North Labour is still ahead on 29% but with the Brexit Party just behind on 26%, in the Midlands and Wales the Brexit Party lead on 29% with the Tories second on 21%.
The LDs rise is concentrated in London where they lead on 34% to 24% for second placed Labour and in the South where the LDs lead the Tories and Brexit Party 32% to the latter's 21% each.
In Scotland there is little change with the SNP ahead on 44% and the Tories second on 19%
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k5jkiheowo/TheTimes_190529_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
> > @NickPalmer said:
>
> > >
> > > A new party does need to emerge - Realist Labour rather than Faux Purist Labour.
> > >
> > >
> >
> > Might I suggest that it can be a realist as anything and you still wouldn't vote for it? Did you vote for Wilson or Blair? What you have in mind is a Conservative concept of an acceptable opposition.<
>
> +++
>
> The Rochdale Pioneers is copper-bottomed, solid loyal Labour. You should be listening to him/her
>
> Your base is deserting you.
Ideological purity trumps all.
> > @Byronic said:
> > > @Quincel said:
> > > I feel odd saying this, but I find Barry Gardiner very good on QT.<
> >
> > +++++
> >
> > He is one of my Guilty Pleasures, as well. He is sane, smart, articulate and sometimes rather witty. I feel sorry for him, having to evangelise for Corbyn, a man he clearly despises.
> >
> > He has an intriguing backstory too
> >
> > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barry_Gardiner
>
> i was about to post the same thing in the same terms!
>
> Barry Gardiner. Guilty Pleasure.
>
> Who knew?
Wiki says he was a junior minister under Blair/Brown.
Oh dear, the gulag awaits for this Red Tory running dog.
> Twitter is excellent for facts and figures, but the worst possible way of conducting political debate. Donald Trump is proof of that.
FAKE!! Twitter is the BEST. Nothing comes close to IT for GREAT OPINIONS and STUFF about POLITICS.
Is that 12. I have lost count?
The LDs lead with middle class ABC1s on 29% to 20% for the second placed Tories
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k5jkiheowo/TheTimes_190529_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
> Harper is in the race.
>
> Is that 12. I have lost count?
I believe so. Mordaunt is still yet to declare I believe.
Has Patel made it official yet?
> Harper is in the race.
>
> Is that 12. I have lost count?
ITN News was definitely reporting that Jesse Norman was standing earlier this evening at about 6pm, but all those reports have disappeared from their website: I'm guessing means they made a mistake and he hasn't made a final decision yet. So it's back to 12 again, not 13 as I'd thought. He was on my spreadsheet until a few minutes ago.
> Rory Stewart looks crumpled by the lack of applause. Weak.
>
>
Rory is crap will never be PM......
> The Brexit Party now lead with working class C2DEs on 29% to 24% for second placed Labour.
>
> The LDs lead with middle class ABC1s on 29% to 20% for the second placed Tories
>
> https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k5jkiheowo/TheTimes_190529_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
The Tories have lost their core vote to the Lib Dems, and will get lost chasing after votes in Labour areas. They can’t make up for losing Wokingham, Maidenhead and Esher to the Lib Dems by trying to out-Brexit the Brexit Party in Wigan, Hull or Bolsover.
> Absolutely right from the latest contribution on QT: the density of population in the South East is ridiculous. Scotland and Wales need to take more people.
Which people in particular ?
Neither Con (45) nor Lab (47) have held on to their 2017 voters, unlike the LibDems (83).
The former Tories have gone mainly to the Brexit Party (38) with some Lib Dems (11) while Labours are more spread out LibDem (27), Green (11), Brexit (8)
> > @HYUFD said:
> > The Brexit Party now lead with working class C2DEs on 29% to 24% for second placed Labour.
> >
> > The LDs lead with middle class ABC1s on 29% to 20% for the second placed Tories
> >
> > https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k5jkiheowo/TheTimes_190529_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
>
> The Tories have lost their core vote to the Lib Dems, and will get lost chasing after votes in Labour areas. They can’t make up for losing Wokingham, Maidenhead and Esher to the Lib Dems by trying to out-Brexit the Brexit Party in Wigan, Hull or Bolsover.
According to YouGov 38% of 2017 Tories will now be voting Brexit Party and only 11% have defected to the LDs. The Tory core vote has gone to the Brexit Party more than the Liberal Democrats. Plus of the remaining Tory voters they comprise 30% of Leave voters but only 11% of Remain voters.
Indeed according to Electoral calculus the Tories would lose more seats to the Brexit Party than they would lose to the LDs
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k5jkiheowo/TheTimes_190529_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
> > @AndyJS said:
> > Absolutely right from the latest contribution on QT: the density of population in the South East is ridiculous. Scotland and Wales need to take more people.
>
> Which people in particular ?
It would take a special sort of masochist to want to subject yourself to more Sturgeon...
> > @HYUFD said:
>
> > The Brexit Party now lead with working class C2DEs on 29% to 24% for second placed Labour.
>
> >
>
> > The LDs lead with middle class ABC1s on 29% to 20% for the second placed Tories
>
> >
>
> > https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k5jkiheowo/TheTimes_190529_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
>
> The Tories have lost their core vote to the Lib Dems
>
> Nope - nearly 4 times as many (38) have gone to the Brexit Party as the LibDems (11)
If you look over a longer timescale, it’s the ones going to the Lib Dems that do the most structural damage to the Tories electoral prospects. It’s not just a question of raw numbers.
>
> According to YouGov 38% of 2017 Tories will now be voting Brexit Party and only 11% have defected to the LDs. The Tory core vote has gone to the Brexit Party more than the Liberal Democrats. Plus of the remaining Tory voters they comprise 30% of Leave voters but only 11% of Remain voters.
>
> Indeed according to Electoral calculus the Tories would lose more seats to the Brexit Party than they would lose to the LDs
>
—————
By trying to win back the Brexit Party vote they’ll drive away loyalists like Richard Nabavi. It’s a vicious circle.
> A new low for Mrs May in 'Best PM' rating 23 (-7) and Corbyn near his all-time lowest (14) at 15 (-4).
>
> Neither Con (45) nor Lab (47) have held on to their 2017 voters, unlike the LibDems (83).
>
> The former Tories have gone mainly to the Brexit Party (38) with some Lib Dems (11) while Labours are more spread out LibDem (27), Green (11), Brexit (8)
The Labour share lost to the LDs and Greens combined is the same as the Tory share lost to the Brexit Party then
> Any type of people. The south-east is too crowded, and Scotland and Wales have plenty of space.
Nobody wants to encourage migration of the lower socioeconomic levels and the higher levels will have more options as to where they want to live.
The South East is in love with its high house prices so why should the rest of the country be bothered ?
Anyone is free to move to places with more affordable housing if they want to.
> > @HYUFD said:
> >
> > According to YouGov 38% of 2017 Tories will now be voting Brexit Party and only 11% have defected to the LDs. The Tory core vote has gone to the Brexit Party more than the Liberal Democrats. Plus of the remaining Tory voters they comprise 30% of Leave voters but only 11% of Remain voters.
> >
> > Indeed according to Electoral calculus the Tories would lose more seats to the Brexit Party than they would lose to the LDs
> >
> —————
> By trying to win back the Brexit Party vote they’ll drive away loyalists like Richard Nabavi. It’s a vicious circle.
The Tories actually won C2s in 2017 as well as ABs and indeed the ABs who voted Tory still tended to be Leavers.
Richard Navabi is not going to replace C2 swing voters lost to the Brexit Party by the Tories in Midlands marginal seats
> > @HYUFD said:
> > The Brexit Party now lead with working class C2DEs on 29% to 24% for second placed Labour.
> >
> > The LDs lead with middle class ABC1s on 29% to 20% for the second placed Tories
> >
> > https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k5jkiheowo/TheTimes_190529_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
>
> The Tories have lost their core vote to the Lib Dems, and will get lost chasing after votes in Labour areas. They can’t make up for losing Wokingham, Maidenhead and Esher to the Lib Dems by trying to out-Brexit the Brexit Party in Wigan, Hull or Bolsover.
The Conservatives aren't going to lose Wokingham, Maidenhead and Esher.
And a quick look at the election results of 2010 onwards shows that the Conservatives have steadily become more dependent upon working class areas - Mansfield, Derbyshire NE, Stoke S etc.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7087839/Tories-warn-leadership-fight-looks-like-CHAOS-ELEVEN-MPs-running.html
> "'I've never seen so many people lining up. It's chaos': Ex-Cabinet minister Iain Duncan Smith demands a rule change in the Tory leadership fight"
>
> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7087839/Tories-warn-leadership-fight-looks-like-CHAOS-ELEVEN-MPs-running.html
Perhaps he should have thought what the consequences of rejecting May's Deal would be.
> "'I've never seen so many people lining up. It's chaos': Ex-Cabinet minister Iain Duncan Smith demands a rule change in the Tory leadership fight"
>
> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7087839/Tories-warn-leadership-fight-looks-like-CHAOS-ELEVEN-MPs-running.html
It's not chaos - it's people staking a claim to the future of their party. The fact that so many are willing to take on the challenge is more a sign of strength than weakness.
Fair enough that some of the candidates are not suitable, some are standing in hope of preferment in the future and some are just wasting their own time. But they are willing to put themselves forward.
Most will fall away rapidly but they will have tried.
https://twitter.com/Daniel_J_Martin/status/1134050237792866304
> Betty next out?
>
> https://twitter.com/Daniel_J_Martin/status/1134050237792866304
Tsk, a crossbencher no less.
> > @HYUFD said:
>
> > The Brexit Party now lead with working class C2DEs on 29% to 24% for second placed Labour.
>
> >
>
> > The LDs lead with middle class ABC1s on 29% to 20% for the second placed Tories
>
> >
>
> > https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k5jkiheowo/TheTimes_190529_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
>
>
>
> The Tories have lost their core vote to the Lib Dems
>
> Nope - nearly 4 times as many (38) have gone to the Brexit Party as the LibDems (11). Its Labour's defectors who are fragmenting.
Notable that those polled had to say other and then nominate the Brexit party and Greens - whereas the Lib Dem, Labour and Tory main parties are prompted on the key voting questions. So this might slightly overstate the position for the three established main parties in reality.
Con 20.8%, 140 seats
Lab 15.2, 147
LD 25.4, 141
BX 22.6, 144