If that poll actually happened in the GE it would be the first time 4 parties have over 100 seats. Incidentally, what would happen if both Tories and LD got same number of seats, who gets to be official opposition?
Considering how things have ended up in France it looks like we could be about to follow the pattern, main parties finally swept away and a polarised nationalist vs internationalist axis replacing them.
The simultaneous fracturing on both sides is what differentiates this from other periods of multi party politics. In 2010 the LDs ended up getting squeezed, in 1983 the split was only on one side.
> @viewcode said: > Betfair unmoved by Jesse Norman so far... > > I preferred him when he was an African-American woman singing opera at the Lincoln centre, but there y'go. > > [Seriously. Was I the only one who was struck by the names?]
Modern culture on PB?
A detailed timing of Pliny's bowel movements is much more the PB sort of thing. (Apologies to MD - I didn't mean to imply that he restricted his data set to mere timings!)
> @williamglenn said: > > @Gallowgate said: > > a Swiss, single market Brexit would please nobody but be acceptable to 70% of the population. Has been the clear way forward since the referendum. > ------ > > It was made impossible by a Leave campaign that focussed on immigration. That's been clear since before the referendum.
EU immigration to the UK has fallen since the referendum though, which makes Swiss style EFTA easier now than as the aim in 2016
> @Paristonda said: > If that poll actually happened in the GE it would be the first time 4 parties have over 100 seats. Incidentally, what would happen if both Tories and LD got same number of seats, who gets to be official opposition? > > Considering how things have ended up in France it looks like we could be about to follow the pattern, main parties finally swept away and a polarised nationalist vs internationalist axis replacing them. > > The simultaneous fracturing on both sides is what differentiates this from other periods of multi party politics. In 2010 the LDs ended up getting squeezed, in 1983 the split was only on one side.<
+++++
Both main parties are clearly moribund - lacking ideas, motivation, talent and leaders. Labour are riven with hideous anti-Semitism, the Tories are captured by eurosceptic lunatics. They both deserve to die, and we deserve a new politics.
Ironically, this may be the first real (and only?) upside of Brexit. It has demolished a rotten system.
> If that poll actually happened in the GE it would be the first time 4 parties have over 100 seats. Incidentally, what would happen if both Tories and LD got same number of seats, who gets to be official opposition?
>
> Considering how things have ended up in France it looks like we could be about to follow the pattern, main parties finally swept away and a polarised nationalist vs internationalist axis replacing them.
>
> The simultaneous fracturing on both sides is what differentiates this from other periods of multi party politics. In 2010 the LDs ended up getting squeezed, in 1983 the split was only on one side.<
+++++
Both main parties are clearly moribund - lacking ideas, motivation, talent and leaders. Labour are riven with hideous anti-Semitism, the Tories are captured by eurosceptic lunatics. They both deserve to die, and we deserve a new politics.
Ironically, this may be the first real (and only?) upside of Brexit. It has demolished a rotten system.
That's no good unless it is replaced by something decent.
Morristown is lovely, up there with Summit. Parsippany is a few miles to the north but a whole lot less nice
Spent a lot of time working one week in four at Budd Lake really loved the place have had many good nights out in and around.
Never been that far west so don’t know it myself
Actually not a lot in Budd Lake itself so used to stay in Morris town, hq plaza or the embassy suites somewhere near by and various other hotels. Most remember place was The Office in Morris Town a useful name to some!
> Dunno. It might be grift and it might be genuine and it might be both. Some people have no savings and live from pay cheque to pay cheque. And when I say some I mean many. One unexpected bill wipes out their savings; a second drives them to the moneylenders.
>
> Just this afternoon the woman in front of me at the supermarket checkout discovered she did not have enough money. She was embarrassed and I was frustrated at the delay while she negotiated with her small children and the cashier what should go back (so frustrated I paid the difference).
>
> These people might be poor, or they might be the middle-class JAMs Theresa May wanted to help before she got sidetracked by Brexit. Mostly they have played by the rules and paid attention at school and gone out to work, but life's unfair and globalisation or (more often) automation has taken away the best jobs, and their wages have stagnated/ You can see why they'd fall for a snake oil salesman selling Brexit or Trumpism or Islamism or any other simplistic analysis.
Person at checkout doesn’t have enough for groceries. That’s like buses coming in twos or British Gas digging up the newly relaid road from the council. It’s no more a reason for brexit than a thousand other things.
Maybe those voting to leave the European Union just wanted to leave the European Union?
Why? If they had no reason for wanting to leave the EU, then why did they turn out to vote. Why indulge them?
I'd rather assume people who voted to leave the EU did have a reason (not all the same reason, obviously) but then we must ask whether it is a good reason that is capable of resolution, or one totally unconnected with the EU, or Corbyn's Marxism or Jordan Peterson's whatever.
Crickey at Question Time might vaguely be worth watching with Rory the Tory, Joe Swinson and Steven Pinker....oh no wait...Barry Gardiner and some lady from the Brexit Party is on...won't be watching that shit show.
It puts that slightly surreal interview by our Chancellor on R4 this morning into context. He didn't think an election could solve the Brexit issue because of the divisions between the parties. I would suggest that a Parliament with more than 100 Brexit MPs in it might have rather different views of the way ahead than the present one.
And on the 19% I too am Spartacus (albeit I am not actually a member).
> @HYUFD said: > > @williamglenn said: > > > @Gallowgate said: > > > a Swiss, single market Brexit would please nobody but be acceptable to 70% of the population. Has been the clear way forward since the referendum. > > ------ > > > > It was made impossible by a Leave campaign that focussed on immigration. That's been clear since before the referendum. > > EU immigration to the UK has fallen since the referendum though, which makes Swiss style EFTA easier now than as the aim in 2016 > <
++++
WAS falling. The latest stats show that EU net migration, into the UK, is rising again, albeit modestly. Which is quietly remarkable.
> @viewcode said: > Betfair unmoved by Jesse Norman so far... > > I preferred him when he was an African-American woman singing opera at the Lincoln centre, but there y'go. > > [Seriously. Was I the only one who was struck by the names?]
He is a white male, and if nothing else he does something to redress the scandalous shortage of Old Etonians on the ballot paper.
> @kle4 said: > > > > Ironically, this may be the first real (and only?) upside of Brexit. It has demolished a rotten system. > > That's no good unless it is replaced by something decent.<
+++++
Broken eggs are messy, but that's how you get an omelette.
Almost anything would be better than what we have now - the worst government in recent history, kept in power by the worst opposition leader in all of parliamentary history.
Morristown is lovely, up there with Summit. Parsippany is a few miles to the north but a whole lot less nice
Spent a lot of time working one week in four at Budd Lake really loved the place have had many good nights out in and around.
Never been that far west so don’t know it myself
Actually not a lot in Budd Lake itself so used to stay in Morris town, hq plaza or the embassy suites somewhere near by and various other hotels. Most remember place was The Office in Morris Town a useful name to some!
I used to stay at the Madison a lot - still have dinner there from time to time
I mean we wait to see if that Yougov poll rumour is actually true but it'd be sort of ironic/funny in a way if, just as the Lib Dems were starting to hit some really eye-catching polling numbers, their upcoming leadership battle somehow popped the unreality bubble around them and all the momentum suddenly evaporated again.
> @FrancisUrquhart said: > Crickey at Question Time might vaguely be worth watching with Rory the Tory, Joe Swinson and Steven Pinker....oh no wait...Barry Gardiner and some lady from the Brexit Party is on...won't be watching that shit show.
Steven Pinker is one of my favourite writers, but I don't think he's been on Question Time before. Should be interesting. I'm reading his Enlightenment Now book.
> @solarflare said: > I mean we wait to see if that Yougov poll rumour is actually true but it'd be sort of ironic/funny in a way if, just as the Lib Dems were starting to hit some really eye-catching polling numbers, their upcoming leadership battle somehow popped the unreality bubble around them and all the momentum suddenly evaporated again.
Unfortunately for the LDs, Peterborough is one of their weakest seats in the Eastern region. Otherwise they might have been in with a chance, if they're doing so well in the national opinion polls.
> @kyf_100 said: > > @AndyJS said: > > Greg Dyke on Sky News: "I think there'll be a second referendum, and Remain will win". > > And if it does, the Brexit Party will win most seats at a GE soon after.
That was Farage’s plan after losing in 2016. It’s far less likely after a second referendum.
> @Gallowgate said: > Labour's internal polling in Peterborough must be dire.
After their last selection strolled into parliament to vote the anti Brexit Cooper bill through as the deciding vote with a tag on, and Corbyn s further remain equivocation I'd hope so too.
> @Pulpstar said: > > @Gallowgate said: > > Labour's internal polling in Peterborough must be dire. > > After their last selection strolled into parliament to vote the anti Brexit Cooper bill through as the deciding vote with a tag on, and Corbyn s further remain equivocation I'd hope so too. > > <
++++
Labour are gonna get absolutely thumped in Peterborough. Good.
> @AndyJS said: > > @FrancisUrquhart said: > > Crickey at Question Time might vaguely be worth watching with Rory the Tory, Joe Swinson and Steven Pinker....oh no wait...Barry Gardiner and some lady from the Brexit Party is on...won't be watching that shit show. > > Steven Pinker is one of my favourite writers, but I don't think he's been on Question Time before. Should be interesting. I'm reading his Enlightenment Now book.
I am not sure how well he will work on QT. His point of view can take him a while to explain properly e.g. I don't think him telling people it is the best time in history to be alive will go down well with an audience baying for blood.
> @FrancisUrquhart said: > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > Greg Dyke on Sky News: "I think there'll be a second referendum, and Remain will win". > Why do we give a crap what Greg Dyke has to say? We don't!
Morristown is lovely, up there with Summit. Parsippany is a few miles to the north but a whole lot less nice
Spent a lot of time working one week in four at Budd Lake really loved the place have had many good nights out in and around.
Never been that far west so don’t know it myself
Actually not a lot in Budd Lake itself so used to stay in Morris town, hq plaza or the embassy suites somewhere near by and various other hotels. Most remember place was The Office in Morris Town a useful name to some!
I used to stay at the Madison a lot - still have dinner there from time to time
Just looked it up and it was the Sheraton and embassy suites in Parsippany which we used but I am going back to late 90’s
> @FrancisUrquhart said: > Crickey at Question Time might vaguely be worth watching with Rory the Tory, Joe Swinson and Steven Pinker....oh no wait...Barry Gardiner and some lady from the Brexit Party is on...won't be watching that shit show.
Has Pinker appeared before?
Gardiner is an awful toady sort, but he's not stupid. It actually baffles me how awful and toady he is.
Rory, I think I'd tip as the best worst choice. Huge night for him.
Swinson - an important evening for her. Perhaps more so than for Rory.
> @Floater said: > > @AndyJS said: > > Greg Dyke on Sky News: "I think there'll be a second referendum, and Remain will win". > > And then it all ends > > > Oh wait.....
You need over 50% to win a referendum, but under FPTP, with a four way split between Con/Lab/Brex/LD, 35-40% could be enough to put you in power.
I really do see this going
1) parliament is deadlocked, second referendum held later this year 2) referendum slightly favours remain, we stay, to howls of protest 3) Brexit party have two to three years to tell leavers result of first referendum has been stolen, drain the swamp etc 4) Brexit party come to power, disorderly exit 5) five years of economic / political chaos 6) either we find some kind of equilibrium outside the EU, economy starts to recover or a lib dem government is elected and we go cap in hand to the EU begging to be let back in.
@stodge tipped Maqsad for the Oaks a couple of threads back and she is also the Pricewise tip in the Racing Post tomorrow, which might not help the price.
It used to be the case that parties held their own public meetings at election time. No need to take part in Hustings if candidates make themselves available in that way..
> @kyf_100 said: > > @Floater said: > > > @AndyJS said: > > > Greg Dyke on Sky News: "I think there'll be a second referendum, and Remain will win". > > > > And then it all ends > > > > > > Oh wait..... > > You need over 50% to win a referendum, but under FPTP, with a four way split between Con/Lab/Brex/LD, 35-40% could be enough to put you in power. > > I really do see this going > > 1) parliament is deadlocked, second referendum held later this year > 2) referendum slightly favours remain, we stay, to howls of protest > 3) Brexit party have two to three years to tell leavers result of first referendum has been stolen, drain the swamp etc > 4) Brexit party come to power, disorderly exit > 5) five years of economic / political chaos > 6) either we find some kind of equilibrium outside the EU, economy starts to recover or a lib dem government is elected and we go cap in hand to the EU begging to be let back in.
What do you see happening with Scotland and Northern Ireland during this time?
I still feel reasonably convinced that on that sort of 4-way even(-ish) split of a poll at a national level all the current models will be completely broken and fail to give anything like the right result. I'm sure smarter people than me have already thought about this...but I still think that.
> @GIN1138 said: > The new Con leader will never countenance another referendum > > For Con the only way they will ever recover is to deliver Brexit. So it will be delivered. One way or another.
Full on Labour 'remain' would be an easy Tory victory and a no-pain referendum. The Tories have to deliver Brexit unless someone else clearly buggers it up. They're just waving Labour into that space.
> @AndyJS said: > > @solarflare said: > > I mean we wait to see if that Yougov poll rumour is actually true but it'd be sort of ironic/funny in a way if, just as the Lib Dems were starting to hit some really eye-catching polling numbers, their upcoming leadership battle somehow popped the unreality bubble around them and all the momentum suddenly evaporated again. > > Unfortunately for the LDs, Peterborough is one of their weakest seats in the Eastern region. Otherwise they might have been in with a chance, if they're doing so well in the national opinion polls.
It would be a hilarious indictment of FPTP if the Leave vote in Peterborough split just enough to let the LDs through the middle on 35% or so having hoovered up the Remain vote.
Highly unlikely though, I agree. If this poll is genuine I expect there will be some excitement for the LDs on Betfair, but winning Peterborough is almost impossible for them.
(Full disclosure, I've taken a small bet on the LDs at 50/1 to try and trade off precisely this situation.)
> > Electoral Calculus says those figures make the Labour Party the largest party under FPTP on 202, Brexit Party second on 139, Tories third on 117, LDs up but only to 115, then SNP on 55
> @williamglenn said: > > @kyf_100 said: > > > @Floater said: > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > Greg Dyke on Sky News: "I think there'll be a second referendum, and Remain will win". > > > > > > And then it all ends > > > > > > > > > Oh wait..... > > > > You need over 50% to win a referendum, but under FPTP, with a four way split between Con/Lab/Brex/LD, 35-40% could be enough to put you in power. > > > > I really do see this going > > > > 1) parliament is deadlocked, second referendum held later this year > > 2) referendum slightly favours remain, we stay, to howls of protest > > 3) Brexit party have two to three years to tell leavers result of first referendum has been stolen, drain the swamp etc > > 4) Brexit party come to power, disorderly exit > > 5) five years of economic / political chaos > > 6) either we find some kind of equilibrium outside the EU, economy starts to recover or a lib dem government is elected and we go cap in hand to the EU begging to be let back in. > > What do you see happening with Scotland and Northern Ireland during this time?
I'm of the view that Scots independence is inevitable in the next few years whether the above scenario happens or not.
If we leave the EU they'll surely demand another vote. If Labour (or the lib dems!) come to power in coalition with the SNP their price will be another vote.
As for Northern Ireland, who knows. Riots?
Gallowgate has it right that the best outcome now would be a Swiss style Brexit that would please no-one. Unfortunately I think the scenario in my previous post seems far more likely. Neither side will give any ground and both extremes must be tested to destruction.
> @Quincel said: > > @AndyJS said: > > > @solarflare said: > > > I mean we wait to see if that Yougov poll rumour is actually true but it'd be sort of ironic/funny in a way if, just as the Lib Dems were starting to hit some really eye-catching polling numbers, their upcoming leadership battle somehow popped the unreality bubble around them and all the momentum suddenly evaporated again. > > > > Unfortunately for the LDs, Peterborough is one of their weakest seats in the Eastern region. Otherwise they might have been in with a chance, if they're doing so well in the national opinion polls. > > It would be a hilarious indictment of FPTP if the Leave vote in Peterborough split just enough to let the LDs through the middle on 35% or so having hoovered up the Remain vote. > > Highly unlikely though, I agree. If this poll is genuine I expect there will be some excitement for the LDs on Betfair, but winning Peterborough is almost impossible for them. > > (Full disclosure, I've taken a small bet on the LDs at 50/1 to try and trade off precisely this situation.)
That would be amusing but I think the absolute maximum LD share in Peterborough would be around 25%, so there'd have to be a perfect 4-way split.
> @Cyclefree said: > Betfair unmoved by Jesse Norman so far... > > I preferred him when he was an African-American woman singing opera at the Lincoln centre, but there y'go. > > [Seriously. Was I the only one who was struck by the names?] > > > No. A similar reaction here. Her rendition of Strauss’s 4 Last Songs is superb.
Curiously, music among Darren Brown’s desert island disc choices. Never thought much of the guy, but his evident fondness for Bach has made me reassess that.
The new Con leader will never countenance another referendum
For Con the only way they will ever recover is to deliver Brexit. So it will be delivered. One way or another.
You really think delivering Brexit will be the end of it? Oh sweet summer child.
If Brexit proves even half as bad as Project Fear it will be curtains for the party that delivers it. Most who want to leave the EU think doing so will make their lives better one way or another. If their lives get worse, they will not be happy bunnies;
Geek Question: is there any precedent in western democracy (Scotland aside) for a divisive referendum entirely realigning a nation's politics? Put it another way, should we have seen post- indyref Scotland (and now, it seems, post EU-ref Britain) coming a mile off?
AFAIK Quebec was not massively realigned after THEIR votes. Or was it?
The new Con leader will never countenance another referendum
For Con the only way they will ever recover is to deliver Brexit. So it will be delivered. One way or another.
It will happen because it must happen? Doesn't sound like sound strategy to me. They have enough people promising to deliver it with no plan on how as it is
Despite no one taking up my offer of a charity wager on the Monster Raving Loony beating the Tories in the Peterborough by election, I am still confident that this is a very real possibility. Don't forget that the people of the fens have a quirky sense of humour. Meanwhile I have had £10 on them with Corals at 1000-1. I've had worse bets in my time
> > Electoral Calculus says those figures make the Labour Party the largest party under FPTP on 202, Brexit Party second on 139, Tories third on 117, LDs up but only to 115, then SNP on 55
> So Electoral Calculus has the LDs losing seats in Scotland, on a more than three fold increase in vote share.
>
> Well, it's a view*.
>
> * Obviously, in the real world, actual outcomes would vary enormously.
I still feel reasonably convinced that on that sort of 4-way even(-ish) split of a poll at a national level all the current models will be completely broken and fail to give anything like the right result. I'm sure smarter people than me have already thought about this...but I still think that.
The new Con leader will never countenance another referendum
For Con the only way they will ever recover is to deliver Brexit. So it will be delivered. One way or another.
You really think delivering Brexit will be the end of it? Oh sweet summer child.
If Brexit proves even half as bad as Project Fear it will be curtains for the party that delivers it. Most who want to leave the EU think doing so will make their lives better one way or another. If their lives get worse, they will not be happy bunnies;
Interested in knowing how they think their lives will be better!
> @DecrepitJohnL said: > The new Con leader will never countenance another referendum > > For Con the only way they will ever recover is to deliver Brexit. So it will be delivered. One way or another. > > You really think delivering Brexit will be the end of it? Oh sweet summer child. > > If Brexit proves even half as bad as Project Fear it will be curtains for the party that delivers it. Most who want to leave the EU think doing so will make their lives better one way or another. If their lives get worse, they will not be happy bunnies;<
++++
I used to think this, I am no longer sure, at all. Brexit has gone way beyond basic economics, it is now about culture, identity, nation, *feelings*. It has also gone tribal. People support football teams even when they are clearly shit, just because their team is "their team". Through thick and thin.
Brexit could cause a Depression and Brexity people would still back it. Possibly even more so.
> @Byronic said: > Geek Question: is there any precedent in western democracy (Scotland aside) for a divisive referendum entirely realigning a nation's politics? Put it another way, should we have seen post- indyref Scotland (and now, it seems, post EU-ref Britain) coming a mile off? > > AFAIK Quebec was not massively realigned after THEIR votes. Or was it? > >
A case can be made that Sarkozy signing up to the Lisbon Treaty after the French voted no to EU Constitution in 2005, has resulted in two main parties being also rans now.
> @Byronic said: > > @DecrepitJohnL said: > > The new Con leader will never countenance another referendum > > > > For Con the only way they will ever recover is to deliver Brexit. So it will be delivered. One way or another. > > > > You really think delivering Brexit will be the end of it? Oh sweet summer child. > > > > If Brexit proves even half as bad as Project Fear it will be curtains for the party that delivers it. Most who want to leave the EU think doing so will make their lives better one way or another. If their lives get worse, they will not be happy bunnies;< > > ++++ > > I used to think this, I am no longer sure, at all. I think Brexit has gone way beyond basic economics, it is now about culture, identity, nation, *feelings*. It has also gone tribal. People support football teams even when they are clearly shit, just because their team is "their team". Through thick and thin. > > Brexit could cause a Depression and Brexity people would still back it. Possibly even more so.
If you’re right, and you probably are, the Union is shafted. Ta Dave.
> @nichomar said: > The new Con leader will never countenance another referendum > > For Con the only way they will ever recover is to deliver Brexit. So it will be delivered. One way or another. > > You really think delivering Brexit will be the end of it? Oh sweet summer child. > > If Brexit proves even half as bad as Project Fear it will be curtains for the party that delivers it. Most who want to leave the EU think doing so will make their lives better one way or another. If their lives get worse, they will not be happy bunnies; > > Interested in knowing how they think their lives will be better!
Currently they are enjoying pay rises. Seeing as in their world perception is reality I would be surprised if they did not equate that to voting Brexit.
> @ralphmalph said: > > @Byronic said: > > Geek Question: is there any precedent in western democracy (Scotland aside) for a divisive referendum entirely realigning a nation's politics? Put it another way, should we have seen post- indyref Scotland (and now, it seems, post EU-ref Britain) coming a mile off? > > > > AFAIK Quebec was not massively realigned after THEIR votes. Or was it? > > > > > > A case can be made that Sarkozy signing up to the Lisbon Treaty after the French voted no to EU Constitution in 2005, has resulted in two main parties being also rans now.
Although they narrowly lost the referendum, the PQ effectively took over afterwards and it is now a predominantly French State.
Geek Question: is there any precedent in western democracy (Scotland aside) for a divisive referendum entirely realigning a nation's politics? Put it another way, should we have seen post- indyref Scotland (and now, it seems, post EU-ref Britain) coming a mile off?
AFAIK Quebec was not massively realigned after THEIR votes. Or was it?
> @Peter_the_Punter said: > > @ralphmalph said: > > > @Byronic said: > > > Geek Question: is there any precedent in western democracy (Scotland aside) for a divisive referendum entirely realigning a nation's politics? Put it another way, should we have seen post- indyref Scotland (and now, it seems, post EU-ref Britain) coming a mile off? > > > > > > AFAIK Quebec was not massively realigned after THEIR votes. Or was it? > > > > > > > > > > A case can be made that Sarkozy signing up to the Lisbon Treaty after the French voted no to EU Constitution in 2005, has resulted in two main parties being also rans now. > > Although they narrowly lost the referendum, the PQ effectively took over afterwards and it is now a predominantly French State.<
+++++
Interesting, ta. Though the PQ have never got close, since the 2nd ref.
- “Electoral Calculus has the LDs losing seats in Scotland, on a more than three fold increase in vote share.”
Yes, I’ve noticed this. At a certain point when both the SNP and the SLDs are doing well, it tips over heavily in the SNP’s favour.
This is due to Baxter’s complex model. The SLD rise would be spread around a lot of constituencies, primarily SCon held or SCon strong second place. This doesn’t really get the SLDs anywhere at all, but it allows the SNP to pretty much wipe out the Tories. Again.
Quetzalcoatl .... I reckon the finishing order in Peterborough will be as follows : 1 Farage's lot 2 Yellow peril 3 Chaos with Corbyn 4 A terrible night for the Tories.
> @Omnium said: > > @FrancisUrquhart said: > > Crickey at Question Time might vaguely be worth watching with Rory the Tory, Joe Swinson and Steven Pinker....oh no wait...Barry Gardiner and some lady from the Brexit Party is on...won't be watching that shit show. > > Has Pinker appeared before? > > Gardiner is an awful toady sort, but he's not stupid. It actually baffles me how awful and toady he is. > > Rory, I think I'd tip as the best worst choice. Huge night for him. > > Swinson - an important evening for her. Perhaps more so than for Rory. > > Lady from Brexit party - good for her
The Brexit Party Alexanda Phillips is one of two Alexandra Phillips elected as MEPs in SE England, the other is Green. Hope they booked the right one. It sounds like a bad sitcom script.
> > Electoral Calculus says those figures make the Labour Party the largest party under FPTP on 202, Brexit Party second on 139, Tories third on 117, LDs up but only to 115, then SNP on 55
> So Electoral Calculus has the LDs losing seats in Scotland, on a more than three fold increase in vote share.
>
> Well, it's a view*.
>
> * Obviously, in the real world, actual outcomes would vary enormously.
I still feel reasonably convinced that on that sort of 4-way even(-ish) split of a poll at a national level all the current models will be completely broken and fail to give anything like the right result. I'm sure smarter people than me have already thought about this...but I still think that.
I get the following: jpg
I miss Terry Pratchett. Reading one of his new books was guaranteed to make me smile for a day or two. We need that more now,
> @Peter_the_Punter said: > > Although they narrowly lost the referendum, the PQ effectively took over afterwards and it is now a predominantly French State.
---
Is that right ?
Quebec always was always a French-speaking province (the only bilingual Canadian province is New Brunswick/Nouveau Brunswick)
After the 1995 referendum, the separatists controlled Quebec for about a decade.
From 1993 to 2011, the Bloc Quebecois was the largest federal party in Quebec. In 2011, it won 4 seats, and by 2014, it had been reduced to 2.
Amongst the provincial parties (different parties fight federal and provincial elections), the Parti Quebecois, which dominated the province over the referendum years, is now in fourth place.
At the moment, it looks as though the referendums, and the constitutional turmoil associated with them, have led to a kind of truce. Quebec has not signed the Canadian constitution, & the other provinces have agreed that Quebec need not sign it.
I suspect Brexit will end the same way -- eventually people get tired of arguing over constitutional matters because other things are important. And an equilibrium of sorts is found. In the case of Brexit, probably with the UK half in and half out.
- “Electoral Calculus has the LDs losing seats in Scotland, on a more than three fold increase in vote share.”
Yes, I’ve noticed this. At a certain point when both the SNP and the SLDs are doing well, it tips over heavily in the SNP’s favour.
This is due to Baxter’s complex model. The SLD rise would be spread around a lot of constituencies, primarily SCon held or SCon strong second place. This doesn’t really get the SLDs anywhere at all, but it allows the SNP to pretty much wipe out the Tories. Again.
The SNP look in great shape to me, the Brexit Party almost perfectly cleaves the Ruth Davidson party into two whilst the Lib Dem surge hits the hardcore remainers of rump Scottish Labour.
> @Casino_Royale said: > I’m laying BXP in Peterborough. At 1/3 they are way too short. > > There’s been no constituency polling there, it’s a brand new party with no canvassing records, and Nigel is crap at Westminster elections. > > Yes, UKIP did win a couple in 2014 but in very favourable constituencies in different circumstances. > --------
We've just had a real election in which the Brexit Party came first with Labour a distant second almost level with the Lib Dems. The circumstances are much more favourable for Farage than they were in 2014.
Varadkar was hardly gonna tell the deeply unpopular, deeply disliked, highly-unlikely-to-be-PM LOTO Jeremy Corbyn "oh sure, we will reopen the WA".
I do wonder what the EU would do if threatened with No Deal. They blinked last time. Would they blink again? My guess is Britain will fold first, and call a new vote.
> @Casino_Royale said: > I’m laying BXP in Peterborough. At 1/3 they are way too short. > > There’s been no constituency polling there, it’s a brand new party with no canvassing records, and Nigel is crap at Westminster elections. > > Yes, UKIP did win a couple in 2014 but in very favourable constituencies in different circumstances. > > Also, Paul Bristow isn’t a bad candidate (and certainly a Brexiteer) so could surprise.
By chance we were in Peterborough on Saturday, walking around the city for most of the afternoon. Inside the main shopping centre (whose name I forget) there was a stand with two UKIP people - one wearing a Union Jack jacket that even you would have found a little obnoxious - and a group of almost evangelical young Brexit Partyers.
The contrast between the two was startling, in age, gender balance, and general happiness.
We didn't see much of anything for the other parties, or indeed much evidence of the by-election.
I don't now how much this sort of activity affects the vote.
> @Byronic said: > > I do wonder what the EU would do if threatened with No Deal. They blinked last time. Would they blink again? My guess is Britain will fold first, and call a new vote. > -------
Why do you keep saying they blinked? It's nonsense to characterise giving an extension as blinking. They haven't given an inch on the substance, and in fact have locked in the WA in its current form.
> @Byronic said: > > @DecrepitJohnL said: > > The new Con leader will never countenance another referendum > > > > For Con the only way they will ever recover is to deliver Brexit. So it will be delivered. One way or another. > > > > You really think delivering Brexit will be the end of it? Oh sweet summer child. > > > > If Brexit proves even half as bad as Project Fear it will be curtains for the party that delivers it. Most who want to leave the EU think doing so will make their lives better one way or another. If their lives get worse, they will not be happy bunnies;< > > ++++ > > I used to think this, I am no longer sure, at all. Brexit has gone way beyond basic economics, it is now about culture, identity, nation, *feelings*. It has also gone tribal. People support football teams even when they are clearly shit, just because their team is "their team". Through thick and thin. > > Brexit could cause a Depression and Brexity people would still back it. Possibly even more so.
> @williamglenn said: > > @Byronic said: > > > > I do wonder what the EU would do if threatened with No Deal. They blinked last time. Would they blink again? My guess is Britain will fold first, and call a new vote. > > > ------- > > Why do you keep saying they blinked? It's nonsense to characterise giving an extension as blinking. They haven't given an inch on the substance, and in fact have locked in the WA in its current form.
Certainly so, and a further extension is much more likely to injure the Conservative party than the EU. Anextension would set off a whole new round of infighting. Advantage EU.
> @Pulpstar said: > Here is one result from that poll put into electoral calculus I won't be betting on come the next GE ! > > Brighton Pavilion East Sussex Brexit gain from Green : Caroline Lucas
> @JosiasJessop said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > I’m laying BXP in Peterborough. At 1/3 they are way too short. > > > > There’s been no constituency polling there, it’s a brand new party with no canvassing records, and Nigel is crap at Westminster elections. > > > > Yes, UKIP did win a couple in 2014 but in very favourable constituencies in different circumstances. > > > > Also, Paul Bristow isn’t a bad candidate (and certainly a Brexiteer) so could surprise. > > By chance we were in Peterborough on Saturday, walking around the city for most of the afternoon. Inside the main shopping centre (whose name I forget) there was a stand with two UKIP people - one wearing a Union Jack jacket that even you would have found a little obnoxious - and a group of almost evangelical young Brexit Partyers. > > The contrast between the two was startling, in age, gender balance, and general happiness. > > We didn't see much of anything for the other parties, or indeed much evidence of the by-election. > > I don't now how much this sort of activity affects the vote.
The only party stall that I saw in the Euros was the Saturday before polling, with half a dozen evangelists.
Labour came top with 47% of the vote, Brexit Party on 16%. I think this was Labours second best result in England, and amongst the BXPs worst.
Comments
Considering how things have ended up in France it looks like we could be about to follow the pattern, main parties finally swept away and a polarised nationalist vs internationalist axis replacing them.
The simultaneous fracturing on both sides is what differentiates this from other periods of multi party politics. In 2010 the LDs ended up getting squeezed, in 1983 the split was only on one side.
> Betfair unmoved by Jesse Norman so far...
>
> I preferred him when he was an African-American woman singing opera at the Lincoln centre, but there y'go.
>
> [Seriously. Was I the only one who was struck by the names?]
Modern culture on PB?
A detailed timing of Pliny's bowel movements is much more the PB sort of thing. (Apologies to MD - I didn't mean to imply that he restricted his data set to mere timings!)
> > @Gallowgate said:
> > a Swiss, single market Brexit would please nobody but be acceptable to 70% of the population. Has been the clear way forward since the referendum.
> ------
>
> It was made impossible by a Leave campaign that focussed on immigration. That's been clear since before the referendum.
EU immigration to the UK has fallen since the referendum though, which makes Swiss style EFTA easier now than as the aim in 2016
> If that poll actually happened in the GE it would be the first time 4 parties have over 100 seats. Incidentally, what would happen if both Tories and LD got same number of seats, who gets to be official opposition?
>
> Considering how things have ended up in France it looks like we could be about to follow the pattern, main parties finally swept away and a polarised nationalist vs internationalist axis replacing them.
>
> The simultaneous fracturing on both sides is what differentiates this from other periods of multi party politics. In 2010 the LDs ended up getting squeezed, in 1983 the split was only on one side.<
+++++
Both main parties are clearly moribund - lacking ideas, motivation, talent and leaders. Labour are riven with hideous anti-Semitism, the Tories are captured by eurosceptic lunatics. They both deserve to die, and we deserve a new politics.
Ironically, this may be the first real (and only?) upside of Brexit. It has demolished a rotten system.
I'd rather assume people who voted to leave the EU did have a reason (not all the same reason, obviously) but then we must ask whether it is a good reason that is capable of resolution, or one totally unconnected with the EU, or Corbyn's Marxism or Jordan Peterson's whatever.
> > @nichomar said:
> > Why aren't you talking about this?
> >
> >
> >
> > https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1134151393764360192
> >
> >
> >
> > Is it real?
>
> We'll find out later, but either way it's not "real", because there is no election tomorrow and we are very far from one
It puts that slightly surreal interview by our Chancellor on R4 this morning into context. He didn't think an election could solve the Brexit issue because of the divisions between the parties. I would suggest that a Parliament with more than 100 Brexit MPs in it might have rather different views of the way ahead than the present one.
And on the 19% I too am Spartacus (albeit I am not actually a member).
> > @williamglenn said:
> > > @Gallowgate said:
> > > a Swiss, single market Brexit would please nobody but be acceptable to 70% of the population. Has been the clear way forward since the referendum.
> > ------
> >
> > It was made impossible by a Leave campaign that focussed on immigration. That's been clear since before the referendum.
>
> EU immigration to the UK has fallen since the referendum though, which makes Swiss style EFTA easier now than as the aim in 2016
> <
++++
WAS falling. The latest stats show that EU net migration, into the UK, is rising again, albeit modestly. Which is quietly remarkable.
> https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1134170518242902018
>
>
>
>
Did they refuse to serve fair trade vegan snacks or something?
https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1134170518242902018
.................................................................................
Perhaps Lab HQ are going for a bold strategy of reflective engagement with former Labour supporters going to Peterborough to meet the voters .....
Calling Alistair Campbell, Charles Clarke and Cherie Blair ......
> Betfair unmoved by Jesse Norman so far...
>
> I preferred him when he was an African-American woman singing opera at the Lincoln centre, but there y'go.
>
> [Seriously. Was I the only one who was struck by the names?]
He is a white male, and if nothing else he does something to redress the scandalous shortage of Old Etonians on the ballot paper.
>
>
>
> Ironically, this may be the first real (and only?) upside of Brexit. It has demolished a rotten system.
>
> That's no good unless it is replaced by something decent.<
+++++
Broken eggs are messy, but that's how you get an omelette.
Almost anything would be better than what we have now - the worst government in recent history, kept in power by the worst opposition leader in all of parliamentary history.
> Greg Dyke on Sky News: "I think there'll be a second referendum, and Remain will win".
And if it does, the Brexit Party will win most seats at a GE soon after.
> Crickey at Question Time might vaguely be worth watching with Rory the Tory, Joe Swinson and Steven Pinker....oh no wait...Barry Gardiner and some lady from the Brexit Party is on...won't be watching that shit show.
Steven Pinker is one of my favourite writers, but I don't think he's been on Question Time before. Should be interesting. I'm reading his Enlightenment Now book.
> I mean we wait to see if that Yougov poll rumour is actually true but it'd be sort of ironic/funny in a way if, just as the Lib Dems were starting to hit some really eye-catching polling numbers, their upcoming leadership battle somehow popped the unreality bubble around them and all the momentum suddenly evaporated again.
Unfortunately for the LDs, Peterborough is one of their weakest seats in the Eastern region. Otherwise they might have been in with a chance, if they're doing so well in the national opinion polls.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > Greg Dyke on Sky News: "I think there'll be a second referendum, and Remain will win".
>
> And if it does, the Brexit Party will win most seats at a GE soon after.
That was Farage’s plan after losing in 2016. It’s far less likely after a second referendum.
> Labour's internal polling in Peterborough must be dire.
After their last selection strolled into parliament to vote the anti Brexit Cooper bill through as the deciding vote with a tag on, and Corbyn s further remain equivocation I'd hope so too.
> Greg Dyke on Sky News: "I think there'll be a second referendum, and Remain will win".
And then it all ends
Oh wait.....
> > @Gallowgate said:
> > Labour's internal polling in Peterborough must be dire.
>
> After their last selection strolled into parliament to vote the anti Brexit Cooper bill through as the deciding vote with a tag on, and Corbyn s further remain equivocation I'd hope so too.
>
> <
++++
Labour are gonna get absolutely thumped in Peterborough. Good.
> https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1134165708869447680?s=20
Following on from the Piddock poll the other night, Labour really do want to self-destruct
> > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > Crickey at Question Time might vaguely be worth watching with Rory the Tory, Joe Swinson and Steven Pinker....oh no wait...Barry Gardiner and some lady from the Brexit Party is on...won't be watching that shit show.
>
> Steven Pinker is one of my favourite writers, but I don't think he's been on Question Time before. Should be interesting. I'm reading his Enlightenment Now book.
I am not sure how well he will work on QT. His point of view can take him a while to explain properly e.g. I don't think him telling people it is the best time in history to be alive will go down well with an audience baying for blood.
> > > Greg Dyke on Sky News: "I think there'll be a second referendum, and Remain will win".
Why do we give a crap what Greg Dyke has to say?
> > > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > Greg Dyke on Sky News: "I think there'll be a second referendum, and Remain will win".
> Why do we give a crap what Greg Dyke has to say?
We don't!
> Crickey at Question Time might vaguely be worth watching with Rory the Tory, Joe Swinson and Steven Pinker....oh no wait...Barry Gardiner and some lady from the Brexit Party is on...won't be watching that shit show.
Has Pinker appeared before?
Gardiner is an awful toady sort, but he's not stupid. It actually baffles me how awful and toady he is.
Rory, I think I'd tip as the best worst choice. Huge night for him.
Swinson - an important evening for her. Perhaps more so than for Rory.
Lady from Brexit party - good for her
> > @Byronic said:
> > Why aren't you talking about this?
> >
> > https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1134151393764360192
>
> Electoral Calculus says those figures make the Labour Party the largest party under FPTP on 202, Brexit Party second on 139, Tories third on 117, LDs up but only to 115, then SNP on 55
>
> https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=19&LAB=19&LIB=22&UKIP=1.9&Green=1.7&ChUK=0.0&Brexit=24&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
So Electoral Calculus has the LDs losing seats in Scotland, on a more than three fold increase in vote share.
Well, it's a view*.
* Obviously, in the real world, actual outcomes would vary enormously.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > Greg Dyke on Sky News: "I think there'll be a second referendum, and Remain will win".
>
> And then it all ends
>
>
> Oh wait.....
You need over 50% to win a referendum, but under FPTP, with a four way split between Con/Lab/Brex/LD, 35-40% could be enough to put you in power.
I really do see this going
1) parliament is deadlocked, second referendum held later this year
2) referendum slightly favours remain, we stay, to howls of protest
3) Brexit party have two to three years to tell leavers result of first referendum has been stolen, drain the swamp etc
4) Brexit party come to power, disorderly exit
5) five years of economic / political chaos
6) either we find some kind of equilibrium outside the EU, economy starts to recover or a lib dem government is elected and we go cap in hand to the EU begging to be let back in.
> > @Floater said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > Greg Dyke on Sky News: "I think there'll be a second referendum, and Remain will win".
> >
> > And then it all ends
> >
> >
> > Oh wait.....
>
> You need over 50% to win a referendum, but under FPTP, with a four way split between Con/Lab/Brex/LD, 35-40% could be enough to put you in power.
>
> I really do see this going
>
> 1) parliament is deadlocked, second referendum held later this year
> 2) referendum slightly favours remain, we stay, to howls of protest
> 3) Brexit party have two to three years to tell leavers result of first referendum has been stolen, drain the swamp etc
> 4) Brexit party come to power, disorderly exit
> 5) five years of economic / political chaos
> 6) either we find some kind of equilibrium outside the EU, economy starts to recover or a lib dem government is elected and we go cap in hand to the EU begging to be let back in.
What do you see happening with Scotland and Northern Ireland during this time?
For Con the only way they will ever recover is to deliver Brexit. So it will be delivered. One way or another.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Byronic said:
> > > Why aren't you talking about this?
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1134151393764360192
> >
> > Electoral Calculus says those figures make the Labour Party the largest party under FPTP on 202, Brexit Party second on 139, Tories third on 117, LDs up but only to 115, then SNP on 55
> >
> > https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=19&LAB=19&LIB=22&UKIP=1.9&Green=1.7&ChUK=0.0&Brexit=24&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
>
> So Electoral Calculus has the LDs losing seats in Scotland, on a more than three fold increase in vote share.
>
> Well, it's a view*.
>
> * Obviously, in the real world, actual outcomes would vary enormously.
I still feel reasonably convinced that on that sort of 4-way even(-ish) split of a poll at a national level all the current models will be completely broken and fail to give anything like the right result. I'm sure smarter people than me have already thought about this...but I still think that.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Byronic said:
> > > Why aren't you talking about this?
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1134151393764360192
> >
> > Electoral Calculus says those figures make the Labour Party the largest party under FPTP on 202, Brexit Party second on 139, Tories third on 117, LDs up but only to 115, then SNP on 55
> >
> > https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=19&LAB=19&LIB=22&UKIP=1.9&Green=1.7&ChUK=0.0&Brexit=24&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
>
> So Electoral Calculus has the LDs losing seats in Scotland, on a more than three fold increase in vote share.
>
> Well, it's a view*.
>
> * Obviously, in the real world, actual outcomes would vary enormously.
It is a good laugh, Caroline Lucas loses to a Brexit Party candidate.
> The new Con leader will never countenance another referendum
>
> For Con the only way they will ever recover is to deliver Brexit. So it will be delivered. One way or another.
Full on Labour 'remain' would be an easy Tory victory and a no-pain referendum. The Tories have to deliver Brexit unless someone else clearly buggers it up. They're just waving Labour into that space.
> > @solarflare said:
> > I mean we wait to see if that Yougov poll rumour is actually true but it'd be sort of ironic/funny in a way if, just as the Lib Dems were starting to hit some really eye-catching polling numbers, their upcoming leadership battle somehow popped the unreality bubble around them and all the momentum suddenly evaporated again.
>
> Unfortunately for the LDs, Peterborough is one of their weakest seats in the Eastern region. Otherwise they might have been in with a chance, if they're doing so well in the national opinion polls.
It would be a hilarious indictment of FPTP if the Leave vote in Peterborough split just enough to let the LDs through the middle on 35% or so having hoovered up the Remain vote.
Highly unlikely though, I agree. If this poll is genuine I expect there will be some excitement for the LDs on Betfair, but winning Peterborough is almost impossible for them.
(Full disclosure, I've taken a small bet on the LDs at 50/1 to try and trade off precisely this situation.)
> > @Gallowgate said:
> > Labour's internal polling in Peterborough must be dire.
>
> I'd hope so too.
>
>
I think the fact you would rather see a BXT MP than a Lab one says more about you TBH
Oh and Dido and Aeneas for me.
> > @kyf_100 said:
> > > @Floater said:
> > > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > Greg Dyke on Sky News: "I think there'll be a second referendum, and Remain will win".
> > >
> > > And then it all ends
> > >
> > >
> > > Oh wait.....
> >
> > You need over 50% to win a referendum, but under FPTP, with a four way split between Con/Lab/Brex/LD, 35-40% could be enough to put you in power.
> >
> > I really do see this going
> >
> > 1) parliament is deadlocked, second referendum held later this year
> > 2) referendum slightly favours remain, we stay, to howls of protest
> > 3) Brexit party have two to three years to tell leavers result of first referendum has been stolen, drain the swamp etc
> > 4) Brexit party come to power, disorderly exit
> > 5) five years of economic / political chaos
> > 6) either we find some kind of equilibrium outside the EU, economy starts to recover or a lib dem government is elected and we go cap in hand to the EU begging to be let back in.
>
> What do you see happening with Scotland and Northern Ireland during this time?
I'm of the view that Scots independence is inevitable in the next few years whether the above scenario happens or not.
If we leave the EU they'll surely demand another vote. If Labour (or the lib dems!) come to power in coalition with the SNP their price will be another vote.
As for Northern Ireland, who knows. Riots?
Gallowgate has it right that the best outcome now would be a Swiss style Brexit that would please no-one. Unfortunately I think the scenario in my previous post seems far more likely. Neither side will give any ground and both extremes must be tested to destruction.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Byronic said:
> > > Why aren't you talking about this?
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1134151393764360192
> >
> > Electoral Calculus says those figures make the Labour Party the largest party under FPTP on 202, Brexit Party second on 139, Tories third on 117, LDs up but only to 115, then SNP on 55
> >
> > https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=19&LAB=19&LIB=22&UKIP=1.9&Green=1.7&ChUK=0.0&Brexit=24&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
>
> So Electoral Calculus has the LDs losing seats in Scotland, on a more than three fold increase in vote share.
>
> Well, it's a view*.
>
> * Obviously, in the real world, actual outcomes would vary enormously.
--------------------------
The detailed constituency results don't seem to tally with the reported party winners on the front page....?
> > @AndyJS said:
> > > @solarflare said:
> > > I mean we wait to see if that Yougov poll rumour is actually true but it'd be sort of ironic/funny in a way if, just as the Lib Dems were starting to hit some really eye-catching polling numbers, their upcoming leadership battle somehow popped the unreality bubble around them and all the momentum suddenly evaporated again.
> >
> > Unfortunately for the LDs, Peterborough is one of their weakest seats in the Eastern region. Otherwise they might have been in with a chance, if they're doing so well in the national opinion polls.
>
> It would be a hilarious indictment of FPTP if the Leave vote in Peterborough split just enough to let the LDs through the middle on 35% or so having hoovered up the Remain vote.
>
> Highly unlikely though, I agree. If this poll is genuine I expect there will be some excitement for the LDs on Betfair, but winning Peterborough is almost impossible for them.
>
> (Full disclosure, I've taken a small bet on the LDs at 50/1 to try and trade off precisely this situation.)
That would be amusing but I think the absolute maximum LD share in Peterborough would be around 25%, so there'd have to be a perfect 4-way split.
> Betfair unmoved by Jesse Norman so far...
>
> I preferred him when he was an African-American woman singing opera at the Lincoln centre, but there y'go.
>
> [Seriously. Was I the only one who was struck by the names?]
>
>
> No. A similar reaction here. Her rendition of Strauss’s 4 Last Songs is superb.
Curiously, music among Darren Brown’s desert island disc choices.
Never thought much of the guy, but his evident fondness for Bach has made me reassess that.
AFAIK Quebec was not massively realigned after THEIR votes. Or was it?
Meanwhile I have had £10 on them with Corals at 1000-1. I've had worse bets in my time
jpg
> The new Con leader will never countenance another referendum
>
> For Con the only way they will ever recover is to deliver Brexit. So it will be delivered. One way or another.
>
> You really think delivering Brexit will be the end of it? Oh sweet summer child.
>
> If Brexit proves even half as bad as Project Fear it will be curtains for the party that delivers it. Most who want to leave the EU think doing so will make their lives better one way or another. If their lives get worse, they will not be happy bunnies;<
++++
I used to think this, I am no longer sure, at all. Brexit has gone way beyond basic economics, it is now about culture, identity, nation, *feelings*. It has also gone tribal. People support football teams even when they are clearly shit, just because their team is "their team". Through thick and thin.
Brexit could cause a Depression and Brexity people would still back it. Possibly even more so.
> Geek Question: is there any precedent in western democracy (Scotland aside) for a divisive referendum entirely realigning a nation's politics? Put it another way, should we have seen post- indyref Scotland (and now, it seems, post EU-ref Britain) coming a mile off?
>
> AFAIK Quebec was not massively realigned after THEIR votes. Or was it?
>
>
A case can be made that Sarkozy signing up to the Lisbon Treaty after the French voted no to EU Constitution in 2005, has resulted in two main parties being also rans now.
> > @DecrepitJohnL said:
> > The new Con leader will never countenance another referendum
> >
> > For Con the only way they will ever recover is to deliver Brexit. So it will be delivered. One way or another.
> >
> > You really think delivering Brexit will be the end of it? Oh sweet summer child.
> >
> > If Brexit proves even half as bad as Project Fear it will be curtains for the party that delivers it. Most who want to leave the EU think doing so will make their lives better one way or another. If their lives get worse, they will not be happy bunnies;<
>
> ++++
>
> I used to think this, I am no longer sure, at all. I think Brexit has gone way beyond basic economics, it is now about culture, identity, nation, *feelings*. It has also gone tribal. People support football teams even when they are clearly shit, just because their team is "their team". Through thick and thin.
>
> Brexit could cause a Depression and Brexity people would still back it. Possibly even more so.
If you’re right, and you probably are, the Union is shafted. Ta Dave.
Peterborough By-election
Under 10%
Tory Vote Share
Odds: 15/2
1 line at £10.00
Total stake for this bet: £10.00
Potential return: £85.00
> The new Con leader will never countenance another referendum
>
> For Con the only way they will ever recover is to deliver Brexit. So it will be delivered. One way or another.
>
> You really think delivering Brexit will be the end of it? Oh sweet summer child.
>
> If Brexit proves even half as bad as Project Fear it will be curtains for the party that delivers it. Most who want to leave the EU think doing so will make their lives better one way or another. If their lives get worse, they will not be happy bunnies;
>
> Interested in knowing how they think their lives will be better!
Currently they are enjoying pay rises. Seeing as in their world perception is reality I would be surprised if they did not equate that to voting Brexit.
> > @Byronic said:
> > Geek Question: is there any precedent in western democracy (Scotland aside) for a divisive referendum entirely realigning a nation's politics? Put it another way, should we have seen post- indyref Scotland (and now, it seems, post EU-ref Britain) coming a mile off?
> >
> > AFAIK Quebec was not massively realigned after THEIR votes. Or was it?
> >
> >
>
> A case can be made that Sarkozy signing up to the Lisbon Treaty after the French voted no to EU Constitution in 2005, has resulted in two main parties being also rans now.
Although they narrowly lost the referendum, the PQ effectively took over afterwards and it is now a predominantly French State.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/10/18/the-nearest-run-thing/
> > @ralphmalph said:
> > > @Byronic said:
> > > Geek Question: is there any precedent in western democracy (Scotland aside) for a divisive referendum entirely realigning a nation's politics? Put it another way, should we have seen post- indyref Scotland (and now, it seems, post EU-ref Britain) coming a mile off?
> > >
> > > AFAIK Quebec was not massively realigned after THEIR votes. Or was it?
> > >
> > >
> >
> > A case can be made that Sarkozy signing up to the Lisbon Treaty after the French voted no to EU Constitution in 2005, has resulted in two main parties being also rans now.
>
> Although they narrowly lost the referendum, the PQ effectively took over afterwards and it is now a predominantly French State.<
+++++
Interesting, ta. Though the PQ have never got close, since the 2nd ref.
- “Electoral Calculus has the LDs losing seats in Scotland, on a more than three fold increase in vote share.”
Yes, I’ve noticed this. At a certain point when both the SNP and the SLDs are doing well, it tips over heavily in the SNP’s favour.
This is due to Baxter’s complex model. The SLD rise would be spread around a lot of constituencies, primarily SCon held or SCon strong second place. This doesn’t really get the SLDs anywhere at all, but it allows the SNP to pretty much wipe out the Tories. Again.
There’s been no constituency polling there, it’s a brand new party with no canvassing records, and Nigel is crap at Westminster elections.
Yes, UKIP did win a couple in 2014 but in very favourable constituencies in different circumstances.
Also, Paul Bristow isn’t a bad candidate (and certainly a Brexiteer) so could surprise.
I reckon the finishing order in Peterborough will be as follows :
1 Farage's lot
2 Yellow peril
3 Chaos with Corbyn
4 A terrible night for the Tories.
> > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > Crickey at Question Time might vaguely be worth watching with Rory the Tory, Joe Swinson and Steven Pinker....oh no wait...Barry Gardiner and some lady from the Brexit Party is on...won't be watching that shit show.
>
> Has Pinker appeared before?
>
> Gardiner is an awful toady sort, but he's not stupid. It actually baffles me how awful and toady he is.
>
> Rory, I think I'd tip as the best worst choice. Huge night for him.
>
> Swinson - an important evening for her. Perhaps more so than for Rory.
>
> Lady from Brexit party - good for her
The Brexit Party Alexanda Phillips is one of two Alexandra Phillips elected as MEPs in SE England, the other is Green. Hope they booked the right one. It sounds like a bad sitcom script.
https://twitter.com/nealerichmond/status/1134137654931611649?s=21
>
> Although they narrowly lost the referendum, the PQ effectively took over afterwards and it is now a predominantly French State.
---
Is that right ?
Quebec always was always a French-speaking province (the only bilingual Canadian province is New Brunswick/Nouveau Brunswick)
After the 1995 referendum, the separatists controlled Quebec for about a decade.
From 1993 to 2011, the Bloc Quebecois was the largest federal party in Quebec. In 2011, it won 4 seats, and by 2014, it had been reduced to 2.
Amongst the provincial parties (different parties fight federal and provincial elections), the Parti Quebecois, which dominated the province over the referendum years, is now in fourth place.
At the moment, it looks as though the referendums, and the constitutional turmoil associated with them, have led to a kind of truce. Quebec has not signed the Canadian constitution, & the other provinces have agreed that Quebec need not sign it.
I suspect Brexit will end the same way -- eventually people get tired of arguing over constitutional matters because other things are important. And an equilibrium of sorts is found. In the case of Brexit, probably with the UK half in and half out.
> I’m laying BXP in Peterborough. At 1/3 they are way too short.
>
> There’s been no constituency polling there, it’s a brand new party with no canvassing records, and Nigel is crap at Westminster elections.
>
> Yes, UKIP did win a couple in 2014 but in very favourable constituencies in different circumstances.
>
--------
We've just had a real election in which the Brexit Party came first with Labour a distant second almost level with the Lib Dems. The circumstances are much more favourable for Farage than they were in 2014.
Miaow.
> https://twitter.com/Maomentum_/status/1134191095385141248
Someone suggested they could hire taxis to deliver the expulsion letters.
> Corbyn didn’t get very far in Dublin.
>
> https://twitter.com/nealerichmond/status/1134137654931611649?s=21<;
+++++
Varadkar was hardly gonna tell the deeply unpopular, deeply disliked, highly-unlikely-to-be-PM LOTO Jeremy Corbyn "oh sure, we will reopen the WA".
I do wonder what the EU would do if threatened with No Deal. They blinked last time. Would they blink again? My guess is Britain will fold first, and call a new vote.
But who knows. Not you. Not me.
> I’m laying BXP in Peterborough. At 1/3 they are way too short.
>
> There’s been no constituency polling there, it’s a brand new party with no canvassing records, and Nigel is crap at Westminster elections.
>
> Yes, UKIP did win a couple in 2014 but in very favourable constituencies in different circumstances.
>
> Also, Paul Bristow isn’t a bad candidate (and certainly a Brexiteer) so could surprise.
By chance we were in Peterborough on Saturday, walking around the city for most of the afternoon. Inside the main shopping centre (whose name I forget) there was a stand with two UKIP people - one wearing a Union Jack jacket that even you would have found a little obnoxious - and a group of almost evangelical young Brexit Partyers.
The contrast between the two was startling, in age, gender balance, and general happiness.
We didn't see much of anything for the other parties, or indeed much evidence of the by-election.
I don't now how much this sort of activity affects the vote.
>
> I do wonder what the EU would do if threatened with No Deal. They blinked last time. Would they blink again? My guess is Britain will fold first, and call a new vote.
>
-------
Why do you keep saying they blinked? It's nonsense to characterise giving an extension as blinking. They haven't given an inch on the substance, and in fact have locked in the WA in its current form.
> > @DecrepitJohnL said:
> > The new Con leader will never countenance another referendum
> >
> > For Con the only way they will ever recover is to deliver Brexit. So it will be delivered. One way or another.
> >
> > You really think delivering Brexit will be the end of it? Oh sweet summer child.
> >
> > If Brexit proves even half as bad as Project Fear it will be curtains for the party that delivers it. Most who want to leave the EU think doing so will make their lives better one way or another. If their lives get worse, they will not be happy bunnies;<
>
> ++++
>
> I used to think this, I am no longer sure, at all. Brexit has gone way beyond basic economics, it is now about culture, identity, nation, *feelings*. It has also gone tribal. People support football teams even when they are clearly shit, just because their team is "their team". Through thick and thin.
>
> Brexit could cause a Depression and Brexity people would still back it. Possibly even more so.
Almost nobody cares about the economics, now.
> > @Byronic said:
> >
> > I do wonder what the EU would do if threatened with No Deal. They blinked last time. Would they blink again? My guess is Britain will fold first, and call a new vote.
> >
> -------
>
> Why do you keep saying they blinked? It's nonsense to characterise giving an extension as blinking. They haven't given an inch on the substance, and in fact have locked in the WA in its current form.
Certainly so, and a further extension is much more likely to injure the Conservative party than the EU. Anextension would set off a whole new round of infighting. Advantage EU.
Brighton Pavilion East Sussex Brexit gain from Green : Caroline Lucas
> Here is one result from that poll put into electoral calculus I won't be betting on come the next GE !
>
> Brighton Pavilion East Sussex Brexit gain from Green : Caroline Lucas
Quite right. Nailed on Change UK gain.
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > I’m laying BXP in Peterborough. At 1/3 they are way too short.
> >
> > There’s been no constituency polling there, it’s a brand new party with no canvassing records, and Nigel is crap at Westminster elections.
> >
> > Yes, UKIP did win a couple in 2014 but in very favourable constituencies in different circumstances.
> >
> > Also, Paul Bristow isn’t a bad candidate (and certainly a Brexiteer) so could surprise.
>
> By chance we were in Peterborough on Saturday, walking around the city for most of the afternoon. Inside the main shopping centre (whose name I forget) there was a stand with two UKIP people - one wearing a Union Jack jacket that even you would have found a little obnoxious - and a group of almost evangelical young Brexit Partyers.
>
> The contrast between the two was startling, in age, gender balance, and general happiness.
>
> We didn't see much of anything for the other parties, or indeed much evidence of the by-election.
>
> I don't now how much this sort of activity affects the vote.
The only party stall that I saw in the Euros was the Saturday before polling, with half a dozen evangelists.
Labour came top with 47% of the vote, Brexit Party on 16%. I think this was Labours second best result in England, and amongst the BXPs worst.