- Brexit Party/Lib Dems come first and second in Peterborough. - National polls see further declines for Labour and the Tories - A handful of ERGers defect to the Brexit Party - Possible defection of one or two Remain Tories to the Lib Dems - Government gets VONCed and forced into a General Election - Lib Dems and Brexit Party compete for power. Labour reduced to a rump. Tories wiped out completely.
If you're a Labour MP looking at this polling I wonder if you might call TMay up and suggest she have one last go at getting her deal through for old time's sake in case you and your friends abstain on it. Remainiacs will hate them for a while but electorally it feels better to rip the bandage off?
If you're a Labour MP looking at this polling I wonder if you might call TMay up and suggest she have one last go at getting her deal through for old time's sake in case you and your friends abstain on it. Remainiacs will hate them for a while but electorally it feels better to rip the bandage off?
If they did that I imagine she would reply "Where the f*+! were you several months ago?"
> @williamglenn said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > Corbyn as PM is dead. > > Which also means that any Tory strategy built around turning Corbyn into the bogeyman who must be kept from Downing Street is also dead. <
++++
Yes, but how do Labour get rid of him? Until McCluskey turns, he stays
> @edmundintokyo said: > If you're a Labour MP looking at this polling I wonder if you might call TMay up and suggest she have one last go at getting her deal through for old time's sake in case you and your friends abstain on it. Remainiacs will hate them for a while but electorally it feels better to rip the bandage off?
TM to do a Merkel and un- resign as there are no suitable alternatives !!!!
> @edmundintokyo said: > If you're a Labour MP looking at this polling I wonder if you might call TMay up and suggest she have one last go at getting her deal through for old time's sake in case you and your friends abstain on it. Remainiacs will hate them for a while but electorally it feels better to rip the bandage off?
> @edmundintokyo said: > If you're a Labour MP looking at this polling I wonder if you might call TMay up and suggest she have one last go at getting her deal through for old time's sake in case you and your friends abstain on it. Remainiacs will hate them for a while but electorally it feels better to rip the bandage off?
If that happened Labour would lose most of the support it still has - remember that the vast majority of Labour voters are remainers who want to see Brexit reversed.
> @MikeSmithson said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > I heard Lucas talking about a potential deal with the Lib Dems. Any such deal would crystallise the remain choice and be dire news for Labour. > > > > If I was the next Lib Dem leader (I left because I thought they should pass the WA) then I'd make the Greens a generous offer of not contesting the following :. > > > > i) Brighton Pavilion (Obvious but a nice gesture for Lucas) > > ii) Bristol West (Yes it is a big Lib Dem chance but a seat the greens really can win. Ignore the mahoossive temporary Labour majority there, this seat has all the hallmarks of a Glasgow North West about it) > > iii) Norwich South > > iv) Sheffield Central > > v) Isle of Wight. > > > > In return for not standing in ~ 100 of the Lib Dem top targets. > > > > Sure it is lopsided, but Lucas knows precisely how FPTP works and might just take it or something like it. > > I think Caroline Lucas should stand for the LD leadership
Is there a point at which direction of travel becomes so clear that the Conservatives panic and aim for an early election to take a beating instead of a later election to take an annihilation?
> @williamglenn said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > Corbyn as PM is dead. > > Which also means that any Tory strategy built around turning Corbyn into the bogeyman who must be kept from Downing Street is also dead.
To be honest if Corbyn and his fellow travellers are ousted I am very relaxed at the remaining political environment
Just shows how much support for May and Corbyn was fear of the alternative. Entirely negative. Like 2 drunks staggering home. Once May hit the floor Corbyn swayed for a bit, looked around, then bam!
Is there a point at which direction of travel becomes so clear that the Conservatives panic and aim for an early election to take a beating instead of a later election to take an annihilation?
That's essentially the idea behind the 'Let's go for no deal, which would cause the government to fall, but maybe we'd be ok at the ensuing GE' strategy many of them are employing.
> @williamglenn said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > Corbyn as PM is dead. > > Which also means that any Tory strategy built around turning Corbyn into the bogeyman who must be kept from Downing Street is also dead.
Maybe but you have to take your victories where you can find them.
Corbyn poses a direct threat to me and my family and millions like us.
It is true the EU technically blinked last time, and gave us more time even though we had nothing even approaching a plan or a change in circumstances, and we have spent the time since pissing about. I wouldn't say it is guaranteed they would blink and let us extend without a plan again, but at some point the patience seems like it would have to run out - being in this limbo is not doing us or them any good, Macron was right to push for a shorter endpoint. Sadly we'll have several more months of the party's pissing about, waiting for the true crunch period post summer before they even attempt to close things down again.
Difficult to come up with a plan when they refuse to work on the only attractive solution - addressing the Irish Question
More likely they'll eventually limp into some sort of pseudo-remain pretendy position noone really believes anyway, and contrive ways to lose even more voters to the Lib Dems.
lol. Corbyn will never go Remain, and even if he did, Remainers wouldn't trust him, not any more.
Corbyn is the problem, and he's not going anywhere. I imagine the stubborn old git will be even more obstinate after all this. It's his last political act.
Agreed. Some people are saying Labour have left it too late to be the standard bearers for Remain, but let's think about that for a moment - given how late they abandoned the party over Brexit stance, would they really not return if they agreed with all Labour policies but for Corbyn's lukewarm Brexit position? Come on.
I'm not sure that works if Lib Dems are in the lead. The move to Labour would be to ensure a 'Remain' victory in an election, but if the Lib Dems are winning...
I love the symmetry of the damage done to LAB and CON
It's not symmetrical, though. Labour are losing support to a sane centre-left party which could plausibly attract enough serious politicians to become a party of government, at least in coalition, and certainly providing a suitable alternative home for sensible Labour folk. Unfortunately the Tories are losing support to a bunch of ideological nutjobs in a single-issue party based entirely on the ego of one man. If the Conservative Party responds by trying to out-Farage Farage (which sadly looks likely), that leaves sane Conservatives with no centre-right home to go to.
Significant casualties include Bercow, Boris, Damian Green, Nick Gibb, Dennis Skinner, Soubry, Stephen Barclay, Ed Miliband, Mark Harper, Nick Boles, Amber Rudd, Nicky Morgan, Yvette Cooper, Rory Stewart, Gareth Snell, Jonny Mercer, Penny Mordaunt and Andrew Rosindell, Peter Bone and Matt Hancock and Gloria Del Piero who would all lose their seats to the Brexit Party.
Those who would lose their seats to the LDs include David Lidington, Tobias Ellwood, Iain Duncan Smith, Theresa Villiers, Geoffrey Cox, Oliver Letwin, Chris Grayling, Dominic Raab, David Gauke, Emma Dent Coad, Justine Greening, Crispin Blunt, Zac Goldsmith, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Nicholas Soames, Greg Clarke, Ed Vaizey and Grant Shapps and John Redwood and Kate Hoey
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > I love the symmetry of the damage done to LAB and CON > > It's not symmetrical, though. Labour are losing support to a sane centre-left party which could plausibly attract enough serious politicians to become a party of government, at least in coalition, and certainly providing a suitable alternative home for sensible Labour folk. Unfortunately the Tories are losing support to a bunch of ideological nutjobs in a single-issue party based entirely on the ego of one man. If the Conservative Party responds by trying to out-Farage Farage (which sadly looks likely), that leaves sane Conservatives with no centre-right home to go to.
> @williamglenn said: > > @Byronic said: > > > > Yes, but how do Labour get rid of him? Until McCluskey turns, he stays > > ----- > Getting rid of Corbyn doesn't solve the strategic dilemma. They've left it too late to be the standard bearer of Remain.
There would be a path to recovery under a new leader. The chances of Labour taking it are not great though.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @williamglenn said: > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > > > Corbyn as PM is dead. > > > > Which also means that any Tory strategy built around turning Corbyn into the bogeyman who must be kept from Downing Street is also dead. > > To be honest if Corbyn and his fellow travellers are ousted I am very relaxed at the remaining political environment
Politics cannot be just about keeping out the bogeymen, the country needs radical change but not from Corbyn or Farage, we should not be relaxed, most likely we are heading for paralysis and more division, with the possibilities of severe damage if either group of nutters gets in.
> @oxfordsimon said: > Before everyone gets over-excited, can we just remember back to the days when the SDP was polling above 50% > > Yes, this feels significant - but it is following on days from an unusual result to an unusual election. > > But it is worth just chilling until this becomes an entrenched trend
The SDP-Liberal Alliance then did better in 1983 than any third party for decades. The point isn't that this poll shows the Lib Dems will win the next election, but suggests the Big 2 may well do very poorly compared to previous elections.
And elections aren't just history lessons - one day a different party will win an election.
While oxfordsimon is no doubt correct to caution against being overexcited, for the first time I can genuinely see the Tories completely disintegrating. If they refuse to go gung ho for no deal, or fail to deliver a gung ho no deal, they will be destroyed by former supporters, and those appear to be their only options as far as I can see.
Next question: are the LibDems going to capitalise on the possible breakthrough as a serious party again by choosing Ed Davey, or throw it away by choosing Jo Swinson?
Next question: are the LibDems going to capitalise on the possible breakthrough as a serious party again by choosing Ed Davey, or throw it away by choosing Jo Swinson?
Surely their membership will think it is 'time' for a female leader, which gives her an instintive advantage?
It's not just about Brexit, Labour were plumbing new depths in the polling only two years ago. Lots of long standing Labour voters don't want Corbyn to be PM.
Not sure Corbyn is safe in place. The MPs who VONCed him are still there. Many went quiet when he polled 40%, and have remained so, when there was a reasonable chance of government at the next GE. Now. Can they do better than Owen Smith? Surely be to goodness.
> @Gallowgate said: > I'm not sure that works if Lib Dems are in the lead. The move to Labour would be to ensure a 'Remain' victory in an election, but if the Lib Dems are winning...
Yup, they need to move to Remain (or even just stop weaseling about PV) and replace Corbyn. But they can't replace Corbyn.
Next question: are the LibDems going to capitalise on the possible breakthrough as a serious party again by choosing Ed Davey, or throw it away by choosing Jo Swinson?
Surely their membership will think it is 'time' for a female leader, which gives her an instintive advantage?
Probably. They'll probably also think that being a serious party again is a sell-out.
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > Next question: are the LibDems going to capitalise on the possible breakthrough as a serious party again by choosing Ed Davey, or throw it away by choosing Jo Swinson?
What is wrong with her? I have no particular positive or negative view on her yet. Ed Davey seems very nondescript and anonymous, what is good about him?
> @dixiedean said: > Not sure Corbyn is safe in place. The MPs who VONCed him are still there. Many went quiet when he polled 40%, and have remained so, when there was a reasonable chance of government at the next GE. > Now. Can they do better than Owen Smith? Surely be to goodness.
Unless and until there's a sign the members are leaving him en masse I think he's safe.
@HYUFD said: Significant casualties include <b>Bercow</b>, Boris, Damian Green, Nick Gibb, Dennis Skinner, Soubry, Stephen Barclay, Ed Miliband, Mark Harper, Nick Boles, Amber Rudd, Nicky Morgan, Yvette Cooper, Rory Stewart, Gareth Snell, Jonny Mercer, Penny Mordaunt and Andrew Rosindell, Peter Bone and Matt Hancock and Gloria Del Piero who would all lose their seats to the Brexit Party.
+++++++++++++++++++++
I think calling the Speaker's seat is a mugs game.
What is wrong with her? I have no particular positive or negative view on her yet. Ed Davey seems very nondescript and anonymous, what is good about him?
Ed Davey is a bit dull, but is solid. Jo Swinson is just lightweight and seems mainly interested in a narrow range of identity politics.
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > Next question: are the LibDems going to capitalise on the possible breakthrough as a serious party again by choosing Ed Davey, or throw it away by choosing Jo Swinson?
Or on the flipside, could they have Tinky Winky as leader and continue polling strongly as long as they keep the Bollocks to Brexit type stuff going?
For sure, this may be, and is most likely to be, a flash in the pan.
Yet people have been talking for some time about how politics is redividing along socially conservative v liberal lines. And it ought to be obvious that the LibDems are far better placed to be that future liberal party than is Labour, save for Labour’s entrenched position on the back of our flawed voting system. Labour, with its history and culture, trade union ties and working class base, is going to struggle to transform itself into the liberal, environmental and internationalist party that our politics may well be heading for.
> @Quincel said: > > @dixiedean said: > > Not sure Corbyn is safe in place. The MPs who VONCed him are still there. Many went quiet when he polled 40%, and have remained so, when there was a reasonable chance of government at the next GE. > > Now. Can they do better than Owen Smith? Surely be to goodness. > > Unless and until there's a sign the members are leaving him en masse I think he's safe.
Well. According to the header, they aren't just leaving him, they are not even voting Labour!
> @rcs1000 said: > @HYUFD said: > Significant casualties include <b>Bercow</b>, Boris, Damian Green, Nick Gibb, Dennis Skinner, Soubry, Stephen Barclay, Ed Miliband, Mark Harper, Nick Boles, Amber Rudd, Nicky Morgan, Yvette Cooper, Rory Stewart, Gareth Snell, Jonny Mercer, Penny Mordaunt and Andrew Rosindell, Peter Bone and Matt Hancock and Gloria Del Piero who would all lose their seats to the Brexit Party. > > +++++++++++++++++++++ > > I think calling the Speaker's seat is a mugs game.
I think calling almost any individual seat on these kinds of polls is a mugs game. If we do end up with 4 parties on over 15% and none on over 30% then there will be some very surprising results.
> @ah009 said: > Just been digging through some old open bets. > June 2017 - Biggest Party Next General Election - Lib Dem - £15 - 40/1 > > Poor value odds for the time, probably. Good value today. Probably a good moment to cash out.
I'm very happy with my thought process at the time. It was just after the general election and I figured there was pent-up Remain vote that went to Corbyn that time, and that it wasn't stable. The other part of my logic was that I thought the Cons would bleed more support to the Lib Dems once Brexit hit and went badly. That might still bear out, but the tightening time frames, the fact we haven't left (yet?), and the obvious and frightening radicalisation of the Conservative & Unionist Party means that I'm less confident of that string. Happily, Farage as turned up and pulled the rug from under the Tories, splitting the vote and allowing the first clear run at the line the Lib Dems have ever had. They probably don't have the muscle for it, but it's working out well so far.
Much as I rate Rory, but I think he has just let the cat out of the bag with his Shackleton story: if he doesn't make it, the Gove is the man to row the boat across the ocean and to home.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > > > > > Corbyn as PM is dead. > > > > > > Which also means that any Tory strategy built around turning Corbyn into the bogeyman who must be kept from Downing Street is also dead. > > > > To be honest if Corbyn and his fellow travellers are ousted I am very relaxed at the remaining political environment > > Politics cannot be just about keeping out the bogeymen, the country needs radical change but not from Corbyn or Farage, we should not be relaxed, most likely we are heading for paralysis and more division, with the possibilities of severe damage if either group of nutters gets in.
Who else is offering "radical change" other than Corbyn or Farage? Even the Tory No Dealers envisage everything staying pretty much the same outside the EU. And you can't offer radical change without being labelled a nutter by substantial sections of the electorate. See Thatcher and Attlee.
Comments
- Brexit Party/Lib Dems come first and second in Peterborough.
- National polls see further declines for Labour and the Tories
- A handful of ERGers defect to the Brexit Party
- Possible defection of one or two Remain Tories to the Lib Dems
- Government gets VONCed and forced into a General Election
- Lib Dems and Brexit Party compete for power. Labour reduced to a rump. Tories wiped out completely.
It would explain a great many things.
>
> Corbyn as PM is dead.
Which also means that any Tory strategy built around turning Corbyn into the bogeyman who must be kept from Downing Street is also dead.
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> >
> > Corbyn as PM is dead.
>
> Which also means that any Tory strategy built around turning Corbyn into the bogeyman who must be kept from Downing Street is also dead. <
++++
Yes, but how do Labour get rid of him? Until McCluskey turns, he stays
> https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius/status/1134208257306877952
Feck me - a post of Tim's I can agree with.
>
> Yes, but how do Labour get rid of him? Until McCluskey turns, he stays
-----
Getting rid of Corbyn doesn't solve the strategic dilemma. They've left it too late to be the standard bearer of Remain.
Keep up the good work Corbyn! He’s the Lib Dems secret agent .
> https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/1134208194744594432
Interesting times indeed.....
She should just f*ck off and join the Tories.
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134207549249654786
Meanwhile over on Betfair Exchange: Lib dems most seats at next GE 16/1 while Lib Dem majority at 10/1...
> If you're a Labour MP looking at this polling I wonder if you might call TMay up and suggest she have one last go at getting her deal through for old time's sake in case you and your friends abstain on it. Remainiacs will hate them for a while but electorally it feels better to rip the bandage off?
TM to do a Merkel and un- resign as there are no suitable alternatives !!!!
> If you're a Labour MP looking at this polling I wonder if you might call TMay up and suggest she have one last go at getting her deal through for old time's sake in case you and your friends abstain on it. Remainiacs will hate them for a while but electorally it feels better to rip the bandage off?
> @edmundintokyo said:
> If you're a Labour MP looking at this polling I wonder if you might call TMay up and suggest she have one last go at getting her deal through for old time's sake in case you and your friends abstain on it. Remainiacs will hate them for a while but electorally it feels better to rip the bandage off?
If that happened Labour would lose most of the support it still has - remember that the vast majority of Labour voters are remainers who want to see Brexit reversed.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134207549249654786
>
> Meanwhile over on Betfair Exchange: Lib dems most seats at next GE 16/1 while Lib Dem majority at 10/1...
You'd be pretty brave looking at this and other polls to bet on a majority of any colour right now.
Well that ruins the strategy of significant portions of our political classes.
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > I heard Lucas talking about a potential deal with the Lib Dems. Any such deal would crystallise the remain choice and be dire news for Labour.
> >
> > If I was the next Lib Dem leader (I left because I thought they should pass the WA) then I'd make the Greens a generous offer of not contesting the following :.
> >
> > i) Brighton Pavilion (Obvious but a nice gesture for Lucas)
> > ii) Bristol West (Yes it is a big Lib Dem chance but a seat the greens really can win. Ignore the mahoossive temporary Labour majority there, this seat has all the hallmarks of a Glasgow North West about it)
> > iii) Norwich South
> > iv) Sheffield Central
> > v) Isle of Wight.
> >
> > In return for not standing in ~ 100 of the Lib Dem top targets.
> >
> > Sure it is lopsided, but Lucas knows precisely how FPTP works and might just take it or something like it.
>
> I think Caroline Lucas should stand for the LD leadership
Can Rory stand for two different parties at once?
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> >
> > Corbyn as PM is dead.
>
> Which also means that any Tory strategy built around turning Corbyn into the bogeyman who must be kept from Downing Street is also dead.
To be honest if Corbyn and his fellow travellers are ousted I am very relaxed at the remaining political environment
****************************** LDM, 24%
********** BXP, 22%
************ CON, 19%
***** LAB, 19%
**** GRN, 8%
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> >
> > Corbyn as PM is dead.
>
> Which also means that any Tory strategy built around turning Corbyn into the bogeyman who must be kept from Downing Street is also dead.
Maybe but you have to take your victories where you can find them.
Corbyn poses a direct threat to me and my family and millions like us.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134207549249654786<;
>
> +++++
>
> I love the symmetry of the damage done to LAB and CON
Labour have dug two graves.
Now they'll probably hold Aldershot, but I'm not backing them at very short odds next time round anywhere.
> https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1134211135719321600
More likely they'll eventually limp into some sort of pseudo-remain pretendy position noone really believes anyway, and contrive ways to lose even more voters to the Lib Dems.
> We need a chart for this
> ****************************** LDM, 24%
> ********** BXP, 22%
> ************ CON, 19%
> ***** LAB, 19%
> **** GRN, 8%
Lab/Brexit Party coalition?
Well Jezza has been for LEAVE for 40 years?
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134207549249654786
Yeah but what if you add up all the parties that aren't LD and put them together?
> https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1134211135719321600<;
====
lol. Corbyn will never go Remain, and even if he did, Remainers wouldn't trust him, not any more.
Corbyn is the problem, and he's not going anywhere. I imagine the stubborn old git will be even more obstinate after all this. It's his last political act.
Yes, this feels significant - but it is following on days from an unusual result to an unusual election.
But it is worth just chilling until this becomes an entrenched trend
She will be a great leader for the Labour Party.
June 2017 - Biggest Party Next General Election - Lib Dem - £15 - 40/1
Poor value odds for the time, probably. Good value today. Probably a good moment to cash out.
> https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1134211135719321600
Could. But won't. Jezbollah and the wazzocks proving him succour will continue to insist he is flawless and that literally everyone else is a Tory.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1134212013578739712
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1134212127739305985
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134207549249654786
Significant casualties include Bercow, Boris, Damian Green, Nick Gibb, Dennis Skinner, Soubry, Stephen Barclay, Ed Miliband, Mark Harper, Nick Boles, Amber Rudd, Nicky Morgan, Yvette Cooper, Rory Stewart, Gareth Snell, Jonny Mercer, Penny Mordaunt and Andrew Rosindell, Peter Bone and Matt Hancock and Gloria Del Piero who would all lose their seats to the Brexit Party.
Those who would lose their seats to the LDs include David Lidington, Tobias Ellwood, Iain Duncan Smith, Theresa Villiers, Geoffrey Cox, Oliver Letwin, Chris Grayling, Dominic Raab, David Gauke, Emma Dent Coad, Justine Greening, Crispin Blunt, Zac Goldsmith, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Nicholas Soames, Greg Clarke, Ed Vaizey and Grant Shapps and John Redwood and Kate Hoey
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=19&LAB=19&LIB=24&UKIP=1.9&Green=8&ChUK=0.0&Brexit=22&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
> I love the symmetry of the damage done to LAB and CON
>
> It's not symmetrical, though. Labour are losing support to a sane centre-left party which could plausibly attract enough serious politicians to become a party of government, at least in coalition, and certainly providing a suitable alternative home for sensible Labour folk. Unfortunately the Tories are losing support to a bunch of ideological nutjobs in a single-issue party based entirely on the ego of one man. If the Conservative Party responds by trying to out-Farage Farage (which sadly looks likely), that leaves sane Conservatives with no centre-right home to go to.
Are the Lib Dems centre-left though?
> > @Byronic said:
> >
> > Yes, but how do Labour get rid of him? Until McCluskey turns, he stays
>
> -----
> Getting rid of Corbyn doesn't solve the strategic dilemma. They've left it too late to be the standard bearer of Remain.
There would be a path to recovery under a new leader. The chances of Labour taking it are not great though.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > >
> > > Corbyn as PM is dead.
> >
> > Which also means that any Tory strategy built around turning Corbyn into the bogeyman who must be kept from Downing Street is also dead.
>
> To be honest if Corbyn and his fellow travellers are ousted I am very relaxed at the remaining political environment
Politics cannot be just about keeping out the bogeymen, the country needs radical change but not from Corbyn or Farage, we should not be relaxed, most likely we are heading for paralysis and more division, with the possibilities of severe damage if either group of nutters gets in.
> Before everyone gets over-excited, can we just remember back to the days when the SDP was polling above 50%
>
> Yes, this feels significant - but it is following on days from an unusual result to an unusual election.
>
> But it is worth just chilling until this becomes an entrenched trend
The SDP-Liberal Alliance then did better in 1983 than any third party for decades. The point isn't that this poll shows the Lib Dems will win the next election, but suggests the Big 2 may well do very poorly compared to previous elections.
And elections aren't just history lessons - one day a different party will win an election.
> I'd love to know precisely WHERE those %s lie.
I think the Euro's gave us a good idea of that.
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134207549249654786
Electoral Calculus on this, just for fun:
LAB 202
BRX 141
LD120
CON 109
SNP 55
Others 23
Don’t forget the whining noise as it loads
Now. Can they do better than Owen Smith? Surely be to goodness.
> I'm not sure that works if Lib Dems are in the lead. The move to Labour would be to ensure a 'Remain' victory in an election, but if the Lib Dems are winning...
Yup, they need to move to Remain (or even just stop weaseling about PV) and replace Corbyn. But they can't replace Corbyn.
> Next question: are the LibDems going to capitalise on the possible breakthrough as a serious party again by choosing Ed Davey, or throw it away by choosing Jo Swinson?
What is wrong with her? I have no particular positive or negative view on her yet. Ed Davey seems very nondescript and anonymous, what is good about him?
> https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1134211135719321600
Labour would lose about 50 seats on this poll mainly to the Brexit Party
> Not sure Corbyn is safe in place. The MPs who VONCed him are still there. Many went quiet when he polled 40%, and have remained so, when there was a reasonable chance of government at the next GE.
> Now. Can they do better than Owen Smith? Surely be to goodness.
Unless and until there's a sign the members are leaving him en masse I think he's safe.
> https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1134211804576567298
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1134212013578739712
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1134212127739305985
The Tories can win back Brexit Party voters if it commits to finally leave the EU ideally with a Deal but if not No Deal
Significant casualties include <b>Bercow</b>, Boris, Damian Green, Nick Gibb, Dennis Skinner, Soubry, Stephen Barclay, Ed Miliband, Mark Harper, Nick Boles, Amber Rudd, Nicky Morgan, Yvette Cooper, Rory Stewart, Gareth Snell, Jonny Mercer, Penny Mordaunt and Andrew Rosindell, Peter Bone and Matt Hancock and Gloria Del Piero who would all lose their seats to the Brexit Party.
+++++++++++++++++++++
I think calling the Speaker's seat is a mugs game.
> The Tories can win back Brexit Party voters if it commits to finally leave the EU ideally with a Deal but if not No Deal
Can't speak for brexitty Tories but given that they promised to deliver Brexit by now I don't think they'll care what it *commits* to.
> Next question: are the LibDems going to capitalise on the possible breakthrough as a serious party again by choosing Ed Davey, or throw it away by choosing Jo Swinson?
Or on the flipside, could they have Tinky Winky as leader and continue polling strongly as long as they keep the Bollocks to Brexit type stuff going?
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1134211135719321600
>
> Could. But won't. Jezbollah and the wazzocks proving him succour will continue to insist he is flawless and that literally everyone else is a Tory.
Not even sure about the could.
For sure, this may be, and is most likely to be, a flash in the pan.
Yet people have been talking for some time about how politics is redividing along socially conservative v liberal lines. And it ought to be obvious that the LibDems are far better placed to be that future liberal party than is Labour, save for Labour’s entrenched position on the back of our flawed voting system. Labour, with its history and culture, trade union ties and working class base, is going to struggle to transform itself into the liberal, environmental and internationalist party that our politics may well be heading for.
> > @dixiedean said:
> > Not sure Corbyn is safe in place. The MPs who VONCed him are still there. Many went quiet when he polled 40%, and have remained so, when there was a reasonable chance of government at the next GE.
> > Now. Can they do better than Owen Smith? Surely be to goodness.
>
> Unless and until there's a sign the members are leaving him en masse I think he's safe.
Well. According to the header, they aren't just leaving him, they are not even voting Labour!
> @HYUFD said:
> Significant casualties include <b>Bercow</b>, Boris, Damian Green, Nick Gibb, Dennis Skinner, Soubry, Stephen Barclay, Ed Miliband, Mark Harper, Nick Boles, Amber Rudd, Nicky Morgan, Yvette Cooper, Rory Stewart, Gareth Snell, Jonny Mercer, Penny Mordaunt and Andrew Rosindell, Peter Bone and Matt Hancock and Gloria Del Piero who would all lose their seats to the Brexit Party.
>
> +++++++++++++++++++++
>
> I think calling the Speaker's seat is a mugs game.
I think calling almost any individual seat on these kinds of polls is a mugs game. If we do end up with 4 parties on over 15% and none on over 30% then there will be some very surprising results.
> Just been digging through some old open bets.
> June 2017 - Biggest Party Next General Election - Lib Dem - £15 - 40/1
>
> Poor value odds for the time, probably. Good value today. Probably a good moment to cash out.
I'm very happy with my thought process at the time. It was just after the general election and I figured there was pent-up Remain vote that went to Corbyn that time, and that it wasn't stable. The other part of my logic was that I thought the Cons would bleed more support to the Lib Dems once Brexit hit and went badly. That might still bear out, but the tightening time frames, the fact we haven't left (yet?), and the obvious and frightening radicalisation of the Conservative & Unionist Party means that I'm less confident of that string. Happily, Farage as turned up and pulled the rug from under the Tories, splitting the vote and allowing the first clear run at the line the Lib Dems have ever had.
They probably don't have the muscle for it, but it's working out well so far.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=19&LAB=19&LIB=24&UKIP=1.9&Green=8&ChUK=0.0&Brexit=22&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > >
> > > > Corbyn as PM is dead.
> > >
> > > Which also means that any Tory strategy built around turning Corbyn into the bogeyman who must be kept from Downing Street is also dead.
> >
> > To be honest if Corbyn and his fellow travellers are ousted I am very relaxed at the remaining political environment
>
> Politics cannot be just about keeping out the bogeymen, the country needs radical change but not from Corbyn or Farage, we should not be relaxed, most likely we are heading for paralysis and more division, with the possibilities of severe damage if either group of nutters gets in.
Who else is offering "radical change" other than Corbyn or Farage? Even the Tory No Dealers envisage everything staying pretty much the same outside the EU. And you can't offer radical change without being labelled a nutter by substantial sections of the electorate.
See Thatcher and Attlee.