I am not sure the Labour civil war is containable any longer.
On one side we have Labour members who care about the party and the country and the millions of people who need a Labour government On the other side we have the thousands of Labour members who care about the evil Blairites and the shame of Red Robbo getting sacked and who care not a jot about the millions of people who need a Labour government
Corbyn, having witnessed the party tear strips off itself trying to explain our position, having witnessed 55% of Labour members not vote Labour and the avalanche of Labour voters staying away in both the locals and the Euros, chooses to respknd by adopting that old political winning phrase "nothing has changed"
Already on "social" media the knives are being sharpened and aimed at anyone who questions the JC. I fear a ruckus is inevitable
> @dixiedean said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > > > > > > > Corbyn as PM is dead. > > > > > > > > Which also means that any Tory strategy built around turning Corbyn into the bogeyman who must be kept from Downing Street is also dead. > > > > > > To be honest if Corbyn and his fellow travellers are ousted I am very relaxed at the remaining political environment > > > > Politics cannot be just about keeping out the bogeymen, the country needs radical change but not from Corbyn or Farage, we should not be relaxed, most likely we are heading for paralysis and more division, with the possibilities of severe damage if either group of nutters gets in. > > Who else is offering "radical change" other than Corbyn or Farage? Even the Tory No Dealers envisage everything staying pretty much the same outside the EU. And you can't offer radical change without being labelled a nutter by substantial sections of the electorate. > See Thatcher and Attlee.
Sturgeon. The Westminster parties should embrace dissolution.
> @edmundintokyo said: > > @HYUFD said: > > The Tories can win back Brexit Party voters if it commits to finally leave the EU ideally with a Deal but if not No Deal > > Can't speak for brexitty Tories but given that they promised to deliver Brexit by now I don't think they'll care what it *commits* to.
They will of course have to take the UK out of the EU by the end of the year, Deal or No Deal, if necessary fighting a general election on a No Deal and no further extension platform in October if the Commons does not pass the WA by then
> @rottenborough said: > Much as I rate Rory, but I think he has just let the cat out of the bag with his Shackleton story: if he doesn't make it, the Gove is the man to row the boat across the ocean and to home.<
+++++
Yes, when he said "my Shackleton story", that was a definite tell. He thinks he is talking to an Oxford Debating Society. He doesn't have the common touch. He's too naive and needs to learn to talk Ordinary - if he can
Nigel Farage would never make that mistake. Nor Boris, Gove, Mordaunt, McVey,...
> @Scott_P said: > The Tories can win back Brexit Party voters if it commits to finally leave the EU ideally with a Deal but if not No Deal > > Even if that were true (and I am not sure it is), that doesn't help them win back the voters who deserted them for the Lib Dems.
Less of an issue, over 50% of 2017 Tories voted Brexit Party last week, only 12% LD, it was Labour who lost their largest number of voters to the LDs not the Tories
> @williamglenn said: > > @dixiedean said: > > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > > > > > > > > > Corbyn as PM is dead. > > > > > > > > > > Which also means that any Tory strategy built around turning Corbyn into the bogeyman who must be kept from Downing Street is also dead. > > > > > > > > To be honest if Corbyn and his fellow travellers are ousted I am very relaxed at the remaining political environment > > > > > > Politics cannot be just about keeping out the bogeymen, the country needs radical change but not from Corbyn or Farage, we should not be relaxed, most likely we are heading for paralysis and more division, with the possibilities of severe damage if either group of nutters gets in. > > > > Who else is offering "radical change" other than Corbyn or Farage? Even the Tory No Dealers envisage everything staying pretty much the same outside the EU. And you can't offer radical change without being labelled a nutter by substantial sections of the electorate. > > See Thatcher and Attlee. > > Sturgeon. The Westminster parties should embrace dissolution.
Yes. Included her but then edited her out as an SNP PM remains just about outside the range of conceivable options...
Still, it's not doom and gloom. At least Labour are getting a fair reward for their utterly cynical stance of shafting the country in order to shaft the government, by not supporting the Withdrawal Agreement which is 100% in accordance with their alleged policy.
Less of an issue, over 50% of 2017 Tories voted Brexit Party last week, only 12% LD, it was Labour who lost their largest number of voters to the LDs not the Tories
A false conclusion. Just because we have mostly remained loyal so far (unlike the Brexiteer loons) doesn't mean we'll remain loyal if the Brexiteer loons are in charge.
Conversely, the Brexit Party will continue to siphon off votes on the other side because, as we all should know by now, if there is one thing which is certain, it is that Farage and the ERG will shout 'Betrayal!' and 'Not Real Brexit' completely irrespective of what actually happens.
Genuine Question: What is it that Farage wants to negotiate with the EU? I thought his entire point is that we shouldn't negotiate and should make no deal.
> @dixiedean said: > > @Quincel said: > > > @dixiedean said: > > > Not sure Corbyn is safe in place. The MPs who VONCed him are still there. Many went quiet when he polled 40%, and have remained so, when there was a reasonable chance of government at the next GE. > > > Now. Can they do better than Owen Smith? Surely be to goodness. > > > > Unless and until there's a sign the members are leaving him en masse I think he's safe. > > Well. According to the header, they aren't just leaving him, they are not even voting Labour!
I think Corbyn’s position becomes interesting when Lab secures largest party but needing 50+ LD/SNP votes to govern. Surely they’d demand his exit as part of the deal? If not directly, I can’t see an agreed policy programme happening with him still there. The same may apply to a Tory leader, but one assumes they’d be looking to get into bed with Nigel rather than the LDs.
2010 happened because the Quad were pretty much on the same page. 2017 happened because TMay was only a handful short and the DUP seem pretty Tory anyway.
If there’s both a big seats gap and big policy/personality differences, the coalition wheels would grind a bit.
> @Quincel said: > Genuine Question: What is it that Farage wants to negotiate with the EU? I thought his entire point is that we shouldn't negotiate and should make no deal.
No deal is not the end point. You still have to do deals with the EU afterwards (which actually end up very similar to the WA anyway)
> @RochdalePioneers said: > I am not sure the Labour civil war is containable any longer. > > On one side we have Labour members who care about the party and the country and the millions of people who need a Labour government > On the other side we have the thousands of Labour members who care about the evil Blairites and the shame of Red Robbo getting sacked and who care not a jot about the millions of people who need a Labour government > > Corbyn, having witnessed the party tear strips off itself trying to explain our position, having witnessed 55% of Labour members not vote Labour and the avalanche of Labour voters staying away in both the locals and the Euros, chooses to respknd by adopting that old political winning phrase "nothing has changed" > > Already on "social" media the knives are being sharpened and aimed at anyone who questions the JC. I fear a ruckus is inevitable <
++++
Good! Both main parties, if they are to survive, need a proper bloodletting. A shoot out. A fundamental debate about what they want. There's no avoiding it any more.
The Tories have embraced it, and may endure because of it. Perhaps.
> @TGOHF said: > Gawd - Swinson coming across as awfully trite and patronising on QT. Straight out of the Westminster bubble via a Huff Post Tweet. > > Perhaps Ed Davey might be a better bet for the LDs ,
Her manner would go down well in a posh part of Scotland like her own constituency, but in an English town like Epsom it doesn't work as well.
> I see Tom Slater was involved with entrapping the poor man. The Revolutionary Communist Party really are everywhere you turn nowadays.
-------------------------
I suspect this will all end in tears.
Boris is highly likely to be acquitted (on the grounds that it's a debatable point, if nothing else). The unintended consequence will be that in any second referendum Leave will be able to claim (and I use that word advisedly) that their arguments have been vindicated by the courts, whereas 'we all know that the warnings about Brexit Armageddon were false'.
In effect the court case could end up legitimising Leave's cause.
How on earth is it debatable? We do not send £350m to the EU every week.
> @Quincel said: > Genuine Question: What is it that Farage wants to negotiate with the EU? I thought his entire point is that we shouldn't negotiate and should make no deal.
I think he wants to leave with No Deal and then negotiate Canada+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
> @AndyJS said: > > @TGOHF said: > > Gawd - Swinson coming across as awfully trite and patronising on QT. Straight out of the Westminster bubble via a Huff Post Tweet. > > > > Perhaps Ed Davey might be a better bet for the LDs , > > Her manner would go down well in a posh part of Scotland like her own constituency, but in an English town like Epsom it doesn't work as well.<
+++++
I live in a supposedly "posh" part of London. I find her quite plausible. Perhaps it is the charming and skirling Scottish accent?
She will do fine in middle class England.
That said, the Brexit Party woman is also quite..... fetching.
> I see Tom Slater was involved with entrapping the poor man. The Revolutionary Communist Party really are everywhere you turn nowadays.
-------------------------
I suspect this will all end in tears.
Boris is highly likely to be acquitted (on the grounds that it's a debatable point, if nothing else). The unintended consequence will be that in any second referendum Leave will be able to claim (and I use that word advisedly) that their arguments have been vindicated by the courts, whereas 'we all know that the warnings about Brexit Armageddon were false'.
In effect the court case could end up legitimising Leave's cause.
How on earth is it debatable? We do not send £350m to the EU every week.
> @Charles said: > > @Scott_P said: > > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134207549249654786 > > > > > > Electoral Calculus on this, just for fun: > > LAB 202 > > BRX 141 > > LD120 > > CON 109 > > SNP 55 > > Others 23 > > Amusing how the Labour Party complains that updating the constituency boundaries is outrageous gerrymandering by the Tories.
At those levels it is about concentration of support as you know. Am rapidly losing faith in FPTP. Waiting for the first Tory leadership candidate to propose PR. There are enough of them. And it would be a genuinely unique policy to differentiate from the rest. Radical ideas seem absent from the Conservative Party though.
A false conclusion. Just because we have mostly remained loyal so far (unlike the Brexiteer loons) doesn't mean we'll remain loyal if the Brexiteer loons are in charge.
++++++++++++++++++++++
I'm sorry, unless you can back that up with a poll, I just don't believe you.
> > Gawd - Swinson coming across as awfully trite and patronising on QT. Straight out of the Westminster bubble via a Huff Post Tweet.
> >
> > Perhaps Ed Davey might be a better bet for the LDs ,
>
> Her manner would go down well in a posh part of Scotland like her own constituency, but in an English town like Epsom it doesn't work as well.<
+++++
I live in a supposedly "posh" part of London. I find her quite plausible. Perhaps it is the charming and skirling Scottish accent?
She will do fine in middle class England.
That said, the Brexit Party woman is also quite..... fetching.
The LD deal of wearing horrendous yellow outfits - just in case anyone who after listening to their trite nonsense for 5 mins doesn’t twig they aren’t Labour - is a bit 1980s innit. Time to stop dressing like a banana ?
> Amusing how the Labour Party complains that updating the constituency boundaries is outrageous gerrymandering by the Tories.
At those levels it is about concentration of support as you know. Am rapidly losing faith in FPTP. Waiting for the first Tory leadership candidate to propose PR. There are enough of them. And it would be a genuinely unique policy to differentiate from the rest. Radical ideas seem absent from the Conservative Party though.
Haha, how amusing it would be if the Tory party flipped to PR supporters once their vote share dipped below 20%.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @Quincel said: > > Genuine Question: What is it that Farage wants to negotiate with the EU? I thought his entire point is that we shouldn't negotiate and should make no deal. > > No deal is not the end point. You still have to do deals with the EU afterwards (which actually end up very similar to the WA anyway)
True, but I wasn't aware Farage had discussed what he wanted to negotiate after No Deal at all. Or have I missed something?
I'm really not making a point, I've genuinely been confused by this for a week or two.
> Genuine Question: What is it that Farage wants to negotiate with the EU? I thought his entire point is that we shouldn't negotiate and should make no deal.
No deal is not the end point. You still have to do deals with the EU afterwards (which actually end up very similar to the WA anyway)
It doesn't matter what Nigel wants to negotiate, because the negotiations are over.
> @Benpointer said: . > > > > In effect the court case could end up legitimising Leave's cause. > > How on earth is it debatable? We do not send £350m to the EU every week.<
+++++
We theoretically send Brussels £350m gross every week. Of course we don't physically do this, but nor do we physically have an emissary crossing the Channel, every Sunday, in a dinghy, with gold, pearls, kine, T bonds, Lindisfarne oysters and fine Circassian concubines worth £250m net, either.
The bus slogan was campaign hyperbole (and a very clever trigger, to get Remainers frothing in a way unhelpful to their cause - spoiler: it worked).
Trying to prosecute someone for this is absurd and foolish. It will probably backfire.
> Amusing how the Labour Party complains that updating the constituency boundaries is outrageous gerrymandering by the Tories.
At those levels it is about concentration of support as you know. Am rapidly losing faith in FPTP. Waiting for the first Tory leadership candidate to propose PR. There are enough of them. And it would be a genuinely unique policy to differentiate from the rest. Radical ideas seem absent from the Conservative Party though.
Haha, how amusing it would be if the Tory party flipped to PR supporters once their vote share dipped below 20%.
On the other hand, Israel has to have its second election within 5 months because of PR.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Scott_P said: > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134207549249654786 > > Significant casualties include Bercow, Boris, Damian Green, Nick Gibb, Dennis Skinner, Soubry, Stephen Barclay, Ed Miliband, Mark Harper, Nick Boles, Amber Rudd, Nicky Morgan, Yvette Cooper, Rory Stewart, Gareth Snell, Jonny Mercer, Penny Mordaunt and Andrew Rosindell, Peter Bone and Matt Hancock and Gloria Del Piero who would all lose their seats to the Brexit Party. >
This assumes that the BXP would stand candidates indiscriminately and not factor in the stance of the incumbent. Certainly in his UKIP days Nigel didn't advocate standing against hardline Eurosceptics - whether out of principle or through fear of splitting the vote.
The idea of sending in candidates to unseat Bone, Rosindell etc. seems entirely self-defeating. If I were a Brexit supporter in Romford it's not something I'd welcome.
Genuine Question: What is it that Farage wants to negotiate with the EU? I thought his entire point is that we shouldn't negotiate and should make no deal.
He wants to go to Brussels, scream at the Euros, blame them for everything, then come home and say "Well I tried, I was reasonable, but THOSE NASTY EUSSR WERE NOT!"
> In effect the court case could end up legitimising Leave's cause.
>
> How on earth is it debatable? We do not send £350m to the EU every week.<
+++++
We theoretically send Brussels £350m gross every week. Of course we don't physically do this, but nor do we physically have an emissary crossing the Channel, every Sunday, in a dinghy, with gold, pearls, kine, T bonds, Lindisfarne oysters and fine Circassian concubines worth £250m net, either.
The bus slogan was campaign hyperbole (and a very clever trigger, to get Remainers frothing in a way unhelpful to their cause - spoiler: it worked).
Trying to prosecute someone for this is absurd and foolish. It will probably backfire.
I'm sorry, unless you can back that up with a poll, I just don't believe you.
Believe what you like, but it's pretty obvious. Of course it can't be backed up with a poll, because there's nothing to poll at the moment. Equally, it is pointless polling on the popularity of 'no deal' because at the moment it's just an abstract concept, shorthand for frustration at Brexit not having happened. It doesn't mean that support for 'no deal', amongst either Conservative members, Conservative voters, or voters at large would survive contact with the reality of no deal.
I'd like to be able to edit the Wikipedia page for the Tory leadership because they've got David Evennett down as supporting both Mark Harper and Sajid Javid, but a special editing lock has been put on the page so that most people can't edit it. Maybe someone on PB has editing rights to change it.
> @SirBenjamin said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Scott_P said: > > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134207549249654786 > > > > Significant casualties include Bercow, Boris, Damian Green, Nick Gibb, Dennis Skinner, Soubry, Stephen Barclay, Ed Miliband, Mark Harper, Nick Boles, Amber Rudd, Nicky Morgan, Yvette Cooper, Rory Stewart, Gareth Snell, Jonny Mercer, Penny Mordaunt and Andrew Rosindell, Peter Bone and Matt Hancock and Gloria Del Piero who would all lose their seats to the Brexit Party. > > > > This assumes that the BXP would stand candidates indiscriminately and not factor in the stance of the incumbent. Certainly in his UKIP days Nigel didn't advocate standing against hardline Eurosceptics - whether out of principle or through fear of splitting the vote. > > The idea of sending in candidates to unseat Bone, Rosindell etc. seems entirely self-defeating. If I were a Brexit supporter in Romford it's not something I'd welcome. >
I may be wrong, but I think Farage and others in TBP sees a bigger prize than in 2015. Back then it was influencing the nation to leave the EU, now he could be PM (I don't think that's likely, but it's certainly much more plausible). Standing aside for MPs of other parties isn't on the books at this stage, imho.
> In effect the court case could end up legitimising Leave's cause.
>
> How on earth is it debatable? We do not send £350m to the EU every week.<
+++++
We theoretically send Brussels £350m gross every week. Of course we don't physically do this, but nor do we physically have an emissary crossing the Channel, every Sunday, in a dinghy, with gold, pearls, kine, T bonds, Lindisfarne oysters and fine Circassian concubines worth £250m net, either.
The bus slogan was campaign hyperbole (and a very clever trigger, to get Remainers frothing in a way unhelpful to their cause - spoiler: it worked).
Trying to prosecute someone for this is absurd and foolish. It will probably backfire.
You know full well it's not about the physical sending of money, it's about the net contribution, which as Sunil pointed out is/was about half of the value put on the bus.
I fully expect the prosecution will fail on some technicality but tbh it has already achieved its goal: casting a spotlight on the lying scumbag who is vying to be leader of an apparently dying party.
> > Gawd - Swinson coming across as awfully trite and patronising on QT. Straight out of the Westminster bubble via a Huff Post Tweet.
> >
> > Perhaps Ed Davey might be a better bet for the LDs ,
>
> Her manner would go down well in a posh part of Scotland like her own constituency, but in an English town like Epsom it doesn't work as well.<
+++++
I live in a supposedly "posh" part of London. I find her quite plausible. Perhaps it is the charming and skirling Scottish accent?
She will do fine in middle class England.
That said, the Brexit Party woman is also quite..... fetching.
The LD deal of wearing horrendous yellow outfits - just in case anyone who after listening to their trite nonsense for 5 mins doesn’t twig they aren’t Labour - is a bit 1980s innit. Time to stop dressing like a banana ?
> > In effect the court case could end up legitimising Leave's cause. > > How on earth is it debatable? We do not send £350m to the EU every week. > > We sent "only" £171 million a week in 2017. Net.
--------------------------------- And there - in one word - is why it's debatable; 'net'. And, of course, the whole issue was debated at great length at the time.
> @Quincel said: > I feel odd saying this, but I find Barry Gardiner very good on QT.<
+++++
He is one of my Guilty Pleasures, as well. He is sane, smart, articulate and sometimes rather witty. I feel sorry for him, having to evangelise for Corbyn, a man he clearly despises.
I'd like to be able to edit the Wikipedia page for the Tory leadership because they've got David Evennett down as supporting both Mark Harper and Sajid Javid, but a special editing lock has been put on the page so that most people can't edit it. Maybe someone on PB has editing rights to change it.
> Amusing how the Labour Party complains that updating the constituency boundaries is outrageous gerrymandering by the Tories.
At those levels it is about concentration of support as you know. Am rapidly losing faith in FPTP. Waiting for the first Tory leadership candidate to propose PR. There are enough of them. And it would be a genuinely unique policy to differentiate from the rest. Radical ideas seem absent from the Conservative Party though.
Haha, how amusing it would be if the Tory party flipped to PR supporters once their vote share dipped below 20%.
On the other hand, Israel has to have its second election within 5 months because of PR.
Oh well, in that case let's just forget the whole idea and stick to the strong and stable government FPTP has given us, eh?
> @Quincel said: > > @SirBenjamin said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @Scott_P said: > > > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134207549249654786 > > > > > > Significant casualties include Bercow, Boris, Damian Green, Nick Gibb, Dennis Skinner, Soubry, Stephen Barclay, Ed Miliband, Mark Harper, Nick Boles, Amber Rudd, Nicky Morgan, Yvette Cooper, Rory Stewart, Gareth Snell, Jonny Mercer, Penny Mordaunt and Andrew Rosindell, Peter Bone and Matt Hancock and Gloria Del Piero who would all lose their seats to the Brexit Party. > > > > > > > This assumes that the BXP would stand candidates indiscriminately and not factor in the stance of the incumbent. Certainly in his UKIP days Nigel didn't advocate standing against hardline Eurosceptics - whether out of principle or through fear of splitting the vote. > > > > The idea of sending in candidates to unseat Bone, Rosindell etc. seems entirely self-defeating. If I were a Brexit supporter in Romford it's not something I'd welcome. > > > > I may be wrong, but I think Farage and others in TBP sees a bigger prize than in 2015. Back then it was influencing the nation to leave the EU, now he could be PM (I don't think that's likely, but it's certainly much more plausible). Standing aside for MPs of other parties isn't on the books at this stage, imho.
27% of 2017 Labour voters are voting Lib Dem in the YouGov poll aswell as 11% going to the Greens.
The Brexit Party takes just 8% of Labour voters !
Astonishing that a party is willing to lose that many Remainers to keep 8% happy !
Problem now is without a change of leadership in Labour even a u turn to properly endorse a second vote might not fully repair the damage .
When will Corbyn get it through his thick skull that the defining issue now is Brexit . Do any of the Nandys or Flints actually bother looking at where Labour is losing votes to or will they keep parroting the same guff about Northern Leave seats .
> Amusing how the Labour Party complains that updating the constituency boundaries is outrageous gerrymandering by the Tories.
At those levels it is about concentration of support as you know. Am rapidly losing faith in FPTP. Waiting for the first Tory leadership candidate to propose PR. There are enough of them. And it would be a genuinely unique policy to differentiate from the rest. Radical ideas seem absent from the Conservative Party though.
Haha, how amusing it would be if the Tory party flipped to PR supporters once their vote share dipped below 20%.
On the other hand, Israel has to have its second election within 5 months because of PR.
Oh well, in that case let's just forget the whole idea and stick to the strong and stable government FPTP has given us, eh?
We will have to leave the Labour Party. Corbyn has been physically cemented into place by those still fighting the wars of the 70s and 80s - even if the vast majority of MPs and hundreds of thousands of members rose up against him, nothing would happen. We'd all be denounced as red Tory traitors and ignored.
The future appears to be about party groupings more than parties as such- the rump Corbynite Labour Party can refuse to work with any of the scabs and traitors, and watch from the sidelines as the Tories are removed from office and progressive policies are enacted.
I just need a name for this new Labour Party to be formed from the ashes of the old. It's Labour. But New.
Absolutely right from the latest contribution on QT: the density of population in the South East is ridiculous. Scotland and Wales need to take more people.
> @RochdalePioneers said: > We will have to leave the Labour Party. Corbyn has been physically cemented into place by those still fighting the wars of the 70s and 80s - even if the vast majority of MPs and hundreds of thousands of members rose up against him, nothing would happen. We'd all be denounced as red Tory traitors and ignored. > > The future appears to be about party groupings more than parties as such- the rump Corbynite Labour Party can refuse to work with any of the scabs and traitors, and watch from the sidelines as the Tories are removed from office and progressive policies are enacted. > > I just need a name for this new Labour Party to be formed from the ashes of the old. It's Labour. But New. > > Thoughts...?
Will it be tough on Corbyn and the causes of Corbyn?
27% of 2017 Labour voters are voting Lib Dem in the YouGov poll aswell as 11% going to the Greens.
The Brexit Party takes just 8% of Labour voters !
Astonishing that a party is willing to lose that many Remainers to keep 8% happy !
Problem now is without a change of leadership in Labour even a u turn to properly endorse a second vote might not fully repair the damage .
When will Corbyn get it through his thick skull that the defining issue now is Brexit . Do any of the Nandys or Flints actually bother looking at where Labour is losing votes to or will they keep parroting the same guff about Northern Leave seats .
Actually of course, by definition, Labour are not keeping the 8% who have gone to the BP happy at all. But of course the loss of Remainers is the real issue for them.
I am amazed that at long last the LD/Green Remain consistency is winning large-scale support. Well done to them for holding their line for so long.
I suspect the most significant effect of the Euro elections might be to show Remainers that it's worth supporting the LDs or Greens.
> @nico67 said: > > When will Corbyn get it through his thick skull that the defining issue now is Brexit . Do any of the Nandys or Flints actually bother looking at where Labour is losing votes to or will they keep parroting the same guff about Northern Leave seats .
It isn't just Brexit at all. He's viewed as toxic for all manner of reasons, from his Marxist sympathies to vile anti-semitism, to the kind of old school socialism that has bankrupted Venezuela.
27% of 2017 Labour voters are voting Lib Dem in the YouGov poll aswell as 11% going to the Greens.
The Brexit Party takes just 8% of Labour voters !
Astonishing that a party is willing to lose that many Remainers to keep 8% happy !
Problem now is without a change of leadership in Labour even a u turn to properly endorse a second vote might not fully repair the damage .
When will Corbyn get it through his thick skull that the defining issue now is Brexit . Do any of the Nandys or Flints actually bother looking at where Labour is losing votes to or will they keep parroting the same guff about Northern Leave seats .
It is too late for Corbyn to change tack over Brexit, it simply would not be credible or authentic. If Labour want Remainers back they need a new leader first.
> You know full well it's not about the physical sending of money, it's about the net contribution, which as Sunil pointed out is/was about half of the value put on the bus. > > I fully expect the prosecution will fail on some technicality but tbh it has already achieved its goal: casting a spotlight on the lying scumbag who is vying to be leader of an apparently dying party. > > Backfire? Dream on!<
+++++
Nah, it's stupid. Boris will revel in the spotlight. Next.
> @RochdalePioneers said: > We will have to leave the Labour Party. Corbyn has been physically cemented into place by those still fighting the wars of the 70s and 80s - even if the vast majority of MPs and hundreds of thousands of members rose up against him, nothing would happen. We'd all be denounced as red Tory traitors and ignored. > > The future appears to be about party groupings more than parties as such- the rump Corbynite Labour Party can refuse to work with any of the scabs and traitors, and watch from the sidelines as the Tories are removed from office and progressive policies are enacted. > > I just need a name for this new Labour Party to be formed from the ashes of the old. It's Labour. But New. > > Thoughts...?
You have come a long way. But I do acknowledge how difficult it must be to advocate leaving a party which has a strong place in your heart.
The Labour Party that won power under Wilson and Blair is dead. The Momentum Labour Party has little to do with what came before.
A new party does need to emerge - Realist Labour rather than Faux Purist Labour.
27% of 2017 Labour voters are voting Lib Dem in the YouGov poll aswell as 11% going to the Greens.
The Brexit Party takes just 8% of Labour voters !
Astonishing that a party is willing to lose that many Remainers to keep 8% happy !
Problem now is without a change of leadership in Labour even a u turn to properly endorse a second vote might not fully repair the damage .
When will Corbyn get it through his thick skull that the defining issue now is Brexit . Do any of the Nandys or Flints actually bother looking at where Labour is losing votes to or will they keep parroting the same guff about Northern Leave seats .
In Wigan, Labour lost 19.7% of their vote. LD, Green and CHUK gained 16%. Even there it was to Remain parties that Labour voters were shifting too.
> @kle4 said: > If Jezza doesn't face a massive leadership challenge this summer on those polling numbers then I am a Dutchman. > > > > He is f***ed > > Who challenges him? > > What if he wins such a challenge?
If he wins, Realist Labour MPs defect to a proper new movement (and refuse to let Chuka in)
Within minutes they can become the second largest group in Parliament and remove Corbyn as LOTO
> @RochdalePioneers said: > I am not sure the Labour civil war is containable any longer. > > On one side we have Labour members who care about the party and the country and the millions of people who need a Labour government > On the other side we have the thousands of Labour members who care about the evil Blairites and the shame of Red Robbo getting sacked and who care not a jot about the millions of people who need a Labour government > > Corbyn, having witnessed the party tear strips off itself trying to explain our position, having witnessed 55% of Labour members not vote Labour and the avalanche of Labour voters staying away in both the locals and the Euros, chooses to respknd by adopting that old political winning phrase "nothing has changed" > > Already on "social" media the knives are being sharpened and aimed at anyone who questions the JC. I fear a ruckus is inevitable
Not to worry - the Corbynistas are all about a kinder, gentler politics......
@SirBenjamin said: This assumes that the BXP would stand candidates indiscriminately and not factor in the stance of the incumbent. Certainly in his UKIP days Nigel didn't advocate standing against hardline Eurosceptics - whether out of principle or through fear of splitting the vote.
The idea of sending in candidates to unseat Bone, Rosindell etc. seems entirely self-defeating. If I were a Brexit supporter in Romford it's not something I'd welcome.
++++++++++++++++++++++
This assumes that Bone, Rosindell, etc have not quite the Conservative Party to join the Brexit Party.
> @Benpointer said: > 27% of 2017 Labour voters are voting Lib Dem in the YouGov poll aswell as 11% going to the Greens. > > > > The Brexit Party takes just 8% of Labour voters ! > > > > Astonishing that a party is willing to lose that many Remainers to keep 8% happy ! > > > > Problem now is without a change of leadership in Labour even a u turn to properly endorse a second vote might not fully repair the damage . > > > > When will Corbyn get it through his thick skull that the defining issue now is Brexit . Do any of the Nandys or Flints actually bother looking at where Labour is losing votes to or will they keep parroting the same guff about Northern Leave seats . > > Actually of course, by definition, Labour are not keeping the 8% who have gone to the BP happy at all. But of course the loss of Remainers is the real issue for them. > > I am amazed that at long last the LD/Green Remain consistency is winning large-scale support. Well done to them for holding their line for so long. > > I suspect the most significant effect of the Euro elections might be to show Remainers that it's worth supporting the LDs or Greens.
Yet put the new Yougov poll numbers into Electoral Calculus and the Brexit Party gain 44 Labour seats while the LDs gain just 15 seats from Labour under FPTP
If Jezza doesn't face a massive leadership challenge this summer on those polling numbers then I am a Dutchman.
He is f***ed
Who challenges him?
What if he wins such a challenge?
a) Tom Watson.
b)Who cares if he wins - how is it worse for Labour than it is now? The fence sitting/sod the jews strategy is killing them, at least if the young momentum kids put him in yet again then they have only themselves to blame.
> @AndyJS said: > Absolutely right from the latest contribution on QT: the density of population in the South East is ridiculous. Scotland and Wales need to take more people.
lol Scotland and Wales aren't turning them away. People are moving to the SE because they want/need to. Changing this state of affairs is only partially possible, and even that requires considerable government intervention.
That was the first heartening Question Time I have seen in about three centuries. Polite, informative, engaging, illuminating.... I just wish Stephen Pinker had been given more time. But with the urgency of Brexit, any foreigner is bound to be a bit superfluous, right now.
I am cheered. And I have only had two glasses of wine. Prost.
> @Foxy said: > The Brexit Party woman is rather good. Unexpected. > > She used to work for Cambridge Analytica, so has been well versed in what buttons to press to get the message across.
Oh well, I thought she was crap. Constantly flicking eyes to check notes, rather ranty etc etc,
@Richard_Nabavi said: Believe what you like, but it's pretty obvious. Of course it can't be backed up with a poll, because there's nothing to poll at the moment. Equally, it is pointless polling on the popularity of 'no deal' because at the moment it's just an abstract concept, shorthand for frustration at Brexit not having happened. It doesn't mean that support for 'no deal', amongst either Conservative members, Conservative voters, or voters at large would survive contact with the reality of no deal.
> @Foxy said: > 27% of 2017 Labour voters are voting Lib Dem in the YouGov poll aswell as 11% going to the Greens. > > > > The Brexit Party takes just 8% of Labour voters ! > > > > Astonishing that a party is willing to lose that many Remainers to keep 8% happy ! > > > > Problem now is without a change of leadership in Labour even a u turn to properly endorse a second vote might not fully repair the damage . > > > > When will Corbyn get it through his thick skull that the defining issue now is Brexit . Do any of the Nandys or Flints actually bother looking at where Labour is losing votes to or will they keep parroting the same guff about Northern Leave seats . > > In Wigan, Labour lost 19.7% of their vote. LD, Green and CHUK gained 16%. Even there it was to Remain parties that Labour voters were shifting too.
But it seems some Labour MPs refuse to accept facts . They just keep peddling the same garbage. The media also peddle the narrative of Leave seats in the north .
> @oxfordsimon said: > > @kle4 said: > > If Jezza doesn't face a massive leadership challenge this summer on those polling numbers then I am a Dutchman. > > > > > > > > He is f***ed > > > > Who challenges him? > > > > What if he wins such a challenge? > > If he wins, Realist Labour MPs defect to a proper new movement (and refuse to let Chuka in) > > Within minutes they can become the second largest group in Parliament and remove Corbyn as LOTO > > It can - and needs - be done
Yep. This summer is the time. Seize the day Tom, seize the day.
> @Foxy said: > > @Foxy said: > > > The Brexit Party woman is rather good. Unexpected. > > > > > > She used to work for Cambridge Analytica, so has been well versed in what buttons to press to get the message across. > > > > Oh well, I thought she was crap. Constantly flicking eyes to check notes, rather ranty etc etc, > > She was less swivel eyed than most BXPs. > > I suspect Farage will be falling out with some of his new MEPs fairly quickly. He has form.
At least the BBC has finally accepted that BXP has more than one representative and put someone on the telly other than box office Nige.
> But it seems some Labour MPs refuse to accept facts . They just keep peddling the same garbage. The media also peddle the narrative of Leave seats in the north
You keep peddling the same line over and over - and I suspect they know their own constituencies rather better than you do.
> @kle4 said: > If Jezza doesn't face a massive leadership challenge this summer on those polling numbers then I am a Dutchman. > > > > He is f***ed > > Who challenges him? > > What if he wins such a challenge?
Phillips would surely fancy a crack. It could almost be a no lose situation for her - even if she loses she'd be a national figure who would be an excellent defector for the Lib Dems to bag. She's very tribal Labour but has said she'd leave in some circumstances, so if she comes to the conclusion it's stand or the party is down the swannee, who knows?
I left Labour because I think Corbyn is an utterly appalling man and could never be removed. I'm starting to think he might be. If more than half your members voted against the party in the EU elections you're in real trouble, in theory it should be easier to vote for a leadership change than another party. Of course against that, you've got the inevitable rallying round, and the fact large swathes of pro-EU, moderate, and those disgusted by anti-semitism have left, but who knows?
> @oxfordsimon said: > > @kle4 said: > > If Jezza doesn't face a massive leadership challenge this summer on those polling numbers then I am a Dutchman. > > > > > > > > He is f***ed > > > > Who challenges him? > > > > What if he wins such a challenge? > > If he wins, Realist Labour MPs defect to a proper new movement (and refuse to let Chuka in) > > Within minutes they can become the second largest group in Parliament and remove Corbyn as LOTO > > It can - and needs - be done
Exactly. Watson needs to lead us all out of exile. 150 Labour MPs quit the Labour whip and form the x Party. Chukka will probably crawl back in for added shits and giggles. And swathes of members will join them.
Remember - it worked for UKIP. Got stuck with minority crazies who glued up the machinery to become unshiftable. Party members, MEPs and donors says tara, form a new party and sweep up almost all UKIPs votes in just weeks. Corbyn can keep Unite and CWU for now, Watson takes GMB and Unison, with Unite following after McClusky is ousted. Corbyn is then free to merge with Socialist Labour, Socialist Worker and the Communists...
> But it seems some Labour MPs refuse to accept facts . They just keep peddling the same garbage. The media also peddle the narrative of Leave seats in the north
You keep peddling the same line over and over - and I suspect they know their own constituencies rather better than you do.
Thinking more about BXP, how did Farage find 70 non-mad entirely new candidates, some of them the calibre of the woman on QT, able to capably hold her own on serious national TV against experienced politicians, in about.... ten weeks?
This seems unlikely.
Was he planning this election for many months? If so, that makes him even wilier than I thought. He really is the best politician in Britain - unfortunately.
> But it seems some Labour MPs refuse to accept facts . They just keep peddling the same garbage. The media also peddle the narrative of Leave seats in the north
You keep peddling the same line over and over - and I suspect they know their own constituencies rather better than you do.
I am from Wigan.
So? I cannot say I agree with the Labour MPs overly worried about leave voting constituencies, but coming from an area doesn't seem to afford particular insight on it, not least because other people from the same area can and do come to different conclusions.
> > Exactly. Watson needs to lead us all out of exile. 150 Labour MPs quit the Labour whip and form the x Party. Chukka will probably crawl back in for added shits and giggles. And swathes of members will join them. > > Remember - it worked for UKIP. Got stuck with minority crazies who glued up the machinery to become unshiftable. Party members, MEPs and donors says tara, form a new party and sweep up almost all UKIPs votes in just weeks. Corbyn can keep Unite and CWU for now, Watson takes GMB and Unison, with Unite following after McClusky is ousted. Corbyn is then free to merge with Socialist Labour, Socialist Worker and the Communists...<
++++
Do it! Please. For all of us. We need a sane social democrat opposition. Even a sane socialist opposition. But not these mad Jew-hating Marxists.
> The Brexit Party woman is rather good. Unexpected.
I may be wrong but she had the breezy self-confidence of a privately educated person.
A quick google check suggests she went to Sir Thomas Rich's Grammar School - a selective state school in Gloucester, followed by Durham then Cardiff (diploma in Journalism). She was UKIP's Head of Media but left when Farage did. See LinkedIn
Comments
On one side we have Labour members who care about the party and the country and the millions of people who need a Labour government
On the other side we have the thousands of Labour members who care about the evil Blairites and the shame of Red Robbo getting sacked and who care not a jot about the millions of people who need a Labour government
Corbyn, having witnessed the party tear strips off itself trying to explain our position, having witnessed 55% of Labour members not vote Labour and the avalanche of Labour voters staying away in both the locals and the Euros, chooses to respknd by adopting that old political winning phrase "nothing has changed"
Already on "social" media the knives are being sharpened and aimed at anyone who questions the JC. I fear a ruckus is inevitable
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > > >
> > > > > Corbyn as PM is dead.
> > > >
> > > > Which also means that any Tory strategy built around turning Corbyn into the bogeyman who must be kept from Downing Street is also dead.
> > >
> > > To be honest if Corbyn and his fellow travellers are ousted I am very relaxed at the remaining political environment
> >
> > Politics cannot be just about keeping out the bogeymen, the country needs radical change but not from Corbyn or Farage, we should not be relaxed, most likely we are heading for paralysis and more division, with the possibilities of severe damage if either group of nutters gets in.
>
> Who else is offering "radical change" other than Corbyn or Farage? Even the Tory No Dealers envisage everything staying pretty much the same outside the EU. And you can't offer radical change without being labelled a nutter by substantial sections of the electorate.
> See Thatcher and Attlee.
Sturgeon. The Westminster parties should embrace dissolution.
> On UNS based on tonight's YouGov next week's Peterborough by election would be Labour 27%, Tories 23%, Brexit Party 22%, LDs 20%
If you assume Labour will lose at least 5% because of the behaviour of Fiona Onasanya then this by election really is anybody's.
Who could that be?
> > @HYUFD said:
> > The Tories can win back Brexit Party voters if it commits to finally leave the EU ideally with a Deal but if not No Deal
>
> Can't speak for brexitty Tories but given that they promised to deliver Brexit by now I don't think they'll care what it *commits* to.
They will of course have to take the UK out of the EU by the end of the year, Deal or No Deal, if necessary fighting a general election on a No Deal and no further extension platform in October if the Commons does not pass the WA by then
> Much as I rate Rory, but I think he has just let the cat out of the bag with his Shackleton story: if he doesn't make it, the Gove is the man to row the boat across the ocean and to home.<
+++++
Yes, when he said "my Shackleton story", that was a definite tell. He thinks he is talking to an Oxford Debating Society. He doesn't have the common touch. He's too naive and needs to learn to talk Ordinary - if he can
Nigel Farage would never make that mistake. Nor Boris, Gove, Mordaunt, McVey,...
> The Tories can win back Brexit Party voters if it commits to finally leave the EU ideally with a Deal but if not No Deal
>
> Even if that were true (and I am not sure it is), that doesn't help them win back the voters who deserted them for the Lib Dems.
Less of an issue, over 50% of 2017 Tories voted Brexit Party last week, only 12% LD, it was Labour who lost their largest number of voters to the LDs not the Tories
> > @dixiedean said:
> > > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Corbyn as PM is dead.
> > > > >
> > > > > Which also means that any Tory strategy built around turning Corbyn into the bogeyman who must be kept from Downing Street is also dead.
> > > >
> > > > To be honest if Corbyn and his fellow travellers are ousted I am very relaxed at the remaining political environment
> > >
> > > Politics cannot be just about keeping out the bogeymen, the country needs radical change but not from Corbyn or Farage, we should not be relaxed, most likely we are heading for paralysis and more division, with the possibilities of severe damage if either group of nutters gets in.
> >
> > Who else is offering "radical change" other than Corbyn or Farage? Even the Tory No Dealers envisage everything staying pretty much the same outside the EU. And you can't offer radical change without being labelled a nutter by substantial sections of the electorate.
> > See Thatcher and Attlee.
>
> Sturgeon. The Westminster parties should embrace dissolution.
Yes. Included her but then edited her out as an SNP PM remains just about outside the range of conceivable options...
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1134187589735518208?s=19
Conversely, the Brexit Party will continue to siphon off votes on the other side because, as we all should know by now, if there is one thing which is certain, it is that Farage and the ERG will shout 'Betrayal!' and 'Not Real Brexit' completely irrespective of what actually happens.
Perhaps Ed Davey might be a better bet for the LDs ,
> > @Quincel said:
> > > @dixiedean said:
> > > Not sure Corbyn is safe in place. The MPs who VONCed him are still there. Many went quiet when he polled 40%, and have remained so, when there was a reasonable chance of government at the next GE.
> > > Now. Can they do better than Owen Smith? Surely be to goodness.
> >
> > Unless and until there's a sign the members are leaving him en masse I think he's safe.
>
> Well. According to the header, they aren't just leaving him, they are not even voting Labour!
I think Corbyn’s position becomes interesting when Lab secures largest party but needing 50+ LD/SNP votes to govern. Surely they’d demand his exit as part of the deal? If not directly, I can’t see an agreed policy programme happening with him still there. The same may apply to a Tory leader, but one assumes they’d be looking to get into bed with Nigel rather than the LDs.
2010 happened because the Quad were pretty much on the same page. 2017 happened because TMay was only a handful short and the DUP seem pretty Tory anyway.
If there’s both a big seats gap and big policy/personality differences, the coalition wheels would grind a bit.
> Genuine Question: What is it that Farage wants to negotiate with the EU? I thought his entire point is that we shouldn't negotiate and should make no deal.
No deal is not the end point. You still have to do deals with the EU afterwards (which actually end up very similar to the WA anyway)
> I am not sure the Labour civil war is containable any longer.
>
> On one side we have Labour members who care about the party and the country and the millions of people who need a Labour government
> On the other side we have the thousands of Labour members who care about the evil Blairites and the shame of Red Robbo getting sacked and who care not a jot about the millions of people who need a Labour government
>
> Corbyn, having witnessed the party tear strips off itself trying to explain our position, having witnessed 55% of Labour members not vote Labour and the avalanche of Labour voters staying away in both the locals and the Euros, chooses to respknd by adopting that old political winning phrase "nothing has changed"
>
> Already on "social" media the knives are being sharpened and aimed at anyone who questions the JC. I fear a ruckus is inevitable <
++++
Good! Both main parties, if they are to survive, need a proper bloodletting. A shoot out. A fundamental debate about what they want. There's no avoiding it any more.
The Tories have embraced it, and may endure because of it. Perhaps.
If Labour don't do it, they are doomed.
> Gawd - Swinson coming across as awfully trite and patronising on QT. Straight out of the Westminster bubble via a Huff Post Tweet.
>
> Perhaps Ed Davey might be a better bet for the LDs ,
Her manner would go down well in a posh part of Scotland like her own constituency, but in an English town like Epsom it doesn't work as well.
> Genuine Question: What is it that Farage wants to negotiate with the EU? I thought his entire point is that we shouldn't negotiate and should make no deal.
I think he wants to leave with No Deal and then negotiate Canada+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
> > @TGOHF said:
> > Gawd - Swinson coming across as awfully trite and patronising on QT. Straight out of the Westminster bubble via a Huff Post Tweet.
> >
> > Perhaps Ed Davey might be a better bet for the LDs ,
>
> Her manner would go down well in a posh part of Scotland like her own constituency, but in an English town like Epsom it doesn't work as well.<
+++++
I live in a supposedly "posh" part of London. I find her quite plausible. Perhaps it is the charming and skirling Scottish accent?
She will do fine in middle class England.
That said, the Brexit Party woman is also quite..... fetching.
> > @Scott_P said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134207549249654786
>
>
>
>
>
> Electoral Calculus on this, just for fun:
>
> LAB 202
>
> BRX 141
>
> LD120
>
> CON 109
>
> SNP 55
>
> Others 23
>
> Amusing how the Labour Party complains that updating the constituency boundaries is outrageous gerrymandering by the Tories.
At those levels it is about concentration of support as you know. Am rapidly losing faith in FPTP. Waiting for the first Tory leadership candidate to propose PR. There are enough of them. And it would be a genuinely unique policy to differentiate from the rest. Radical ideas seem absent from the Conservative Party though.
A false conclusion. Just because we have mostly remained loyal so far (unlike the Brexiteer loons) doesn't mean we'll remain loyal if the Brexiteer loons are in charge.
++++++++++++++++++++++
I'm sorry, unless you can back that up with a poll, I just don't believe you.
Amusing how the Labour Party complains that updating the constituency boundaries is outrageous gerrymandering by the Tories.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
This clearly some new meaning of the word "amusing" that I was previously unaware of.
> > @Quincel said:
> > Genuine Question: What is it that Farage wants to negotiate with the EU? I thought his entire point is that we shouldn't negotiate and should make no deal.
>
> No deal is not the end point. You still have to do deals with the EU afterwards (which actually end up very similar to the WA anyway)
True, but I wasn't aware Farage had discussed what he wanted to negotiate after No Deal at all. Or have I missed something?
I'm really not making a point, I've genuinely been confused by this for a week or two.
.
>
>
>
> In effect the court case could end up legitimising Leave's cause.
>
> How on earth is it debatable? We do not send £350m to the EU every week.<
+++++
We theoretically send Brussels £350m gross every week. Of course we don't physically do this, but nor do we physically have an emissary crossing the Channel, every Sunday, in a dinghy, with gold, pearls, kine, T bonds, Lindisfarne oysters and fine Circassian concubines worth £250m net, either.
The bus slogan was campaign hyperbole (and a very clever trigger, to get Remainers frothing in a way unhelpful to their cause - spoiler: it worked).
Trying to prosecute someone for this is absurd and foolish. It will probably backfire.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134207549249654786
>
> Significant casualties include Bercow, Boris, Damian Green, Nick Gibb, Dennis Skinner, Soubry, Stephen Barclay, Ed Miliband, Mark Harper, Nick Boles, Amber Rudd, Nicky Morgan, Yvette Cooper, Rory Stewart, Gareth Snell, Jonny Mercer, Penny Mordaunt and Andrew Rosindell, Peter Bone and Matt Hancock and Gloria Del Piero who would all lose their seats to the Brexit Party.
>
This assumes that the BXP would stand candidates indiscriminately and not factor in the stance of the incumbent. Certainly in his UKIP days Nigel didn't advocate standing against hardline Eurosceptics - whether out of principle or through fear of splitting the vote.
The idea of sending in candidates to unseat Bone, Rosindell etc. seems entirely self-defeating. If I were a Brexit supporter in Romford it's not something I'd welcome.
That's the plan. It's working...
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134207549249654786
> >
> > Significant casualties include Bercow, Boris, Damian Green, Nick Gibb, Dennis Skinner, Soubry, Stephen Barclay, Ed Miliband, Mark Harper, Nick Boles, Amber Rudd, Nicky Morgan, Yvette Cooper, Rory Stewart, Gareth Snell, Jonny Mercer, Penny Mordaunt and Andrew Rosindell, Peter Bone and Matt Hancock and Gloria Del Piero who would all lose their seats to the Brexit Party.
> >
>
> This assumes that the BXP would stand candidates indiscriminately and not factor in the stance of the incumbent. Certainly in his UKIP days Nigel didn't advocate standing against hardline Eurosceptics - whether out of principle or through fear of splitting the vote.
>
> The idea of sending in candidates to unseat Bone, Rosindell etc. seems entirely self-defeating. If I were a Brexit supporter in Romford it's not something I'd welcome.
>
I may be wrong, but I think Farage and others in TBP sees a bigger prize than in 2015. Back then it was influencing the nation to leave the EU, now he could be PM (I don't think that's likely, but it's certainly much more plausible). Standing aside for MPs of other parties isn't on the books at this stage, imho.
> I feel odd saying this, but I find Barry Gardiner very good on QT.
I actually find Barry a good communicator. Whether the actual message is garbled nonsense if probably more down to his party than him.
I fully expect the prosecution will fail on some technicality but tbh it has already achieved its goal: casting a spotlight on the lying scumbag who is vying to be leader of an apparently dying party.
Backfire? Dream on!
>
> In effect the court case could end up legitimising Leave's cause.
>
> How on earth is it debatable? We do not send £350m to the EU every week.
>
> We sent "only" £171 million a week in 2017. Net.
---------------------------------
And there - in one word - is why it's debatable; 'net'. And, of course, the whole issue was debated at great length at the time.
The “amusing” comes from how transparently they do it
> I feel odd saying this, but I find Barry Gardiner very good on QT.<
+++++
He is one of my Guilty Pleasures, as well. He is sane, smart, articulate and sometimes rather witty. I feel sorry for him, having to evangelise for Corbyn, a man he clearly despises.
He has an intriguing backstory too
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barry_Gardiner
Sent you a VM by the way.
> > @SirBenjamin said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @Scott_P said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134207549249654786
> > >
> > > Significant casualties include Bercow, Boris, Damian Green, Nick Gibb, Dennis Skinner, Soubry, Stephen Barclay, Ed Miliband, Mark Harper, Nick Boles, Amber Rudd, Nicky Morgan, Yvette Cooper, Rory Stewart, Gareth Snell, Jonny Mercer, Penny Mordaunt and Andrew Rosindell, Peter Bone and Matt Hancock and Gloria Del Piero who would all lose their seats to the Brexit Party.
> > >
> >
> > This assumes that the BXP would stand candidates indiscriminately and not factor in the stance of the incumbent. Certainly in his UKIP days Nigel didn't advocate standing against hardline Eurosceptics - whether out of principle or through fear of splitting the vote.
> >
> > The idea of sending in candidates to unseat Bone, Rosindell etc. seems entirely self-defeating. If I were a Brexit supporter in Romford it's not something I'd welcome.
> >
>
> I may be wrong, but I think Farage and others in TBP sees a bigger prize than in 2015. Back then it was influencing the nation to leave the EU, now he could be PM (I don't think that's likely, but it's certainly much more plausible). Standing aside for MPs of other parties isn't on the books at this stage, imho.
OMG. Seriously? LibDems top of Westminster VI?
The Brexit Party takes just 8% of Labour voters !
Astonishing that a party is willing to lose that many Remainers to keep 8% happy !
Problem now is without a change of leadership in Labour even a u turn to properly endorse a second vote might not fully repair the damage .
When will Corbyn get it through his thick skull that the defining issue now is Brexit . Do any of the Nandys or Flints actually bother looking at where Labour is losing votes to or will they keep parroting the same guff about Northern Leave seats .
The future appears to be about party groupings more than parties as such- the rump Corbynite Labour Party can refuse to work with any of the scabs and traitors, and watch from the sidelines as the Tories are removed from office and progressive policies are enacted.
I just need a name for this new Labour Party to be formed from the ashes of the old. It's Labour. But New.
Thoughts...?
He is f***ed
> We will have to leave the Labour Party. Corbyn has been physically cemented into place by those still fighting the wars of the 70s and 80s - even if the vast majority of MPs and hundreds of thousands of members rose up against him, nothing would happen. We'd all be denounced as red Tory traitors and ignored.
>
> The future appears to be about party groupings more than parties as such- the rump Corbynite Labour Party can refuse to work with any of the scabs and traitors, and watch from the sidelines as the Tories are removed from office and progressive policies are enacted.
>
> I just need a name for this new Labour Party to be formed from the ashes of the old. It's Labour. But New.
>
> Thoughts...?
Will it be tough on Corbyn and the causes of Corbyn?
I am amazed that at long last the LD/Green Remain consistency is winning large-scale support. Well done to them for holding their line for so long.
I suspect the most significant effect of the Euro elections might be to show Remainers that it's worth supporting the LDs or Greens.
>
> When will Corbyn get it through his thick skull that the defining issue now is Brexit . Do any of the Nandys or Flints actually bother looking at where Labour is losing votes to or will they keep parroting the same guff about Northern Leave seats .
It isn't just Brexit at all. He's viewed as toxic for all manner of reasons, from his Marxist sympathies to vile anti-semitism, to the kind of old school socialism that has bankrupted Venezuela.
> You know full well it's not about the physical sending of money, it's about the net contribution, which as Sunil pointed out is/was about half of the value put on the bus.
>
> I fully expect the prosecution will fail on some technicality but tbh it has already achieved its goal: casting a spotlight on the lying scumbag who is vying to be leader of an apparently dying party.
>
> Backfire? Dream on!<
+++++
Nah, it's stupid. Boris will revel in the spotlight. Next.
What if he wins such a challenge?
> We will have to leave the Labour Party. Corbyn has been physically cemented into place by those still fighting the wars of the 70s and 80s - even if the vast majority of MPs and hundreds of thousands of members rose up against him, nothing would happen. We'd all be denounced as red Tory traitors and ignored.
>
> The future appears to be about party groupings more than parties as such- the rump Corbynite Labour Party can refuse to work with any of the scabs and traitors, and watch from the sidelines as the Tories are removed from office and progressive policies are enacted.
>
> I just need a name for this new Labour Party to be formed from the ashes of the old. It's Labour. But New.
>
> Thoughts...?
You have come a long way. But I do acknowledge how difficult it must be to advocate leaving a party which has a strong place in your heart.
The Labour Party that won power under Wilson and Blair is dead. The Momentum Labour Party has little to do with what came before.
A new party does need to emerge - Realist Labour rather than Faux Purist Labour.
I seem to recall their argument was they couldn't join/associate with LD as that brand was dead and buried.
> If Jezza doesn't face a massive leadership challenge this summer on those polling numbers then I am a Dutchman.
>
>
>
> He is f***ed
>
> Who challenges him?
>
> What if he wins such a challenge?
If he wins, Realist Labour MPs defect to a proper new movement (and refuse to let Chuka in)
Within minutes they can become the second largest group in Parliament and remove Corbyn as LOTO
It can - and needs - be done
> I am not sure the Labour civil war is containable any longer.
>
> On one side we have Labour members who care about the party and the country and the millions of people who need a Labour government
> On the other side we have the thousands of Labour members who care about the evil Blairites and the shame of Red Robbo getting sacked and who care not a jot about the millions of people who need a Labour government
>
> Corbyn, having witnessed the party tear strips off itself trying to explain our position, having witnessed 55% of Labour members not vote Labour and the avalanche of Labour voters staying away in both the locals and the Euros, chooses to respknd by adopting that old political winning phrase "nothing has changed"
>
> Already on "social" media the knives are being sharpened and aimed at anyone who questions the JC. I fear a ruckus is inevitable
Not to worry - the Corbynistas are all about a kinder, gentler politics......
Now will you just feck off tory scum.
This assumes that the BXP would stand candidates indiscriminately and not factor in the stance of the incumbent. Certainly in his UKIP days Nigel didn't advocate standing against hardline Eurosceptics - whether out of principle or through fear of splitting the vote.
The idea of sending in candidates to unseat Bone, Rosindell etc. seems entirely self-defeating. If I were a Brexit supporter in Romford it's not something I'd welcome.
++++++++++++++++++++++
This assumes that Bone, Rosindell, etc have not quite the Conservative Party to join the Brexit Party.
> 27% of 2017 Labour voters are voting Lib Dem in the YouGov poll aswell as 11% going to the Greens.
>
>
>
> The Brexit Party takes just 8% of Labour voters !
>
>
>
> Astonishing that a party is willing to lose that many Remainers to keep 8% happy !
>
>
>
> Problem now is without a change of leadership in Labour even a u turn to properly endorse a second vote might not fully repair the damage .
>
>
>
> When will Corbyn get it through his thick skull that the defining issue now is Brexit . Do any of the Nandys or Flints actually bother looking at where Labour is losing votes to or will they keep parroting the same guff about Northern Leave seats .
>
> Actually of course, by definition, Labour are not keeping the 8% who have gone to the BP happy at all. But of course the loss of Remainers is the real issue for them.
>
> I am amazed that at long last the LD/Green Remain consistency is winning large-scale support. Well done to them for holding their line for so long.
>
> I suspect the most significant effect of the Euro elections might be to show Remainers that it's worth supporting the LDs or Greens.
Yet put the new Yougov poll numbers into Electoral Calculus and the Brexit Party gain 44 Labour seats while the LDs gain just 15 seats from Labour under FPTP
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=19&LAB=19&LIB=24&UKIP=1.9&Green=1.7&ChUK=0.0&Brexit=22&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
b)Who cares if he wins - how is it worse for Labour than it is now? The fence sitting/sod the jews strategy is killing them, at least if the young momentum kids put him in yet again then they have only themselves to blame.
> Absolutely right from the latest contribution on QT: the density of population in the South East is ridiculous. Scotland and Wales need to take more people.
lol Scotland and Wales aren't turning them away. People are moving to the SE because they want/need to. Changing this state of affairs is only partially possible, and even that requires considerable government intervention.
I am cheered. And I have only had two glasses of wine. Prost.
> The Brexit Party woman is rather good. Unexpected.
>
> She used to work for Cambridge Analytica, so has been well versed in what buttons to press to get the message across.
Oh well, I thought she was crap. Constantly flicking eyes to check notes, rather ranty etc etc,
Believe what you like, but it's pretty obvious. Of course it can't be backed up with a poll, because there's nothing to poll at the moment. Equally, it is pointless polling on the popularity of 'no deal' because at the moment it's just an abstract concept, shorthand for frustration at Brexit not having happened. It doesn't mean that support for 'no deal', amongst either Conservative members, Conservative voters, or voters at large would survive contact with the reality of no deal.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
o <- joke
O
/|\ <- you
/ \
> 27% of 2017 Labour voters are voting Lib Dem in the YouGov poll aswell as 11% going to the Greens.
>
>
>
> The Brexit Party takes just 8% of Labour voters !
>
>
>
> Astonishing that a party is willing to lose that many Remainers to keep 8% happy !
>
>
>
> Problem now is without a change of leadership in Labour even a u turn to properly endorse a second vote might not fully repair the damage .
>
>
>
> When will Corbyn get it through his thick skull that the defining issue now is Brexit . Do any of the Nandys or Flints actually bother looking at where Labour is losing votes to or will they keep parroting the same guff about Northern Leave seats .
>
> In Wigan, Labour lost 19.7% of their vote. LD, Green and CHUK gained 16%. Even there it was to Remain parties that Labour voters were shifting too.
But it seems some Labour MPs refuse to accept facts . They just keep peddling the same garbage. The media also peddle the narrative of Leave seats in the north .
> > @kle4 said:
> > If Jezza doesn't face a massive leadership challenge this summer on those polling numbers then I am a Dutchman.
> >
> >
> >
> > He is f***ed
> >
> > Who challenges him?
> >
> > What if he wins such a challenge?
>
> If he wins, Realist Labour MPs defect to a proper new movement (and refuse to let Chuka in)
>
> Within minutes they can become the second largest group in Parliament and remove Corbyn as LOTO
>
> It can - and needs - be done
Yep. This summer is the time. Seize the day Tom, seize the day.
> The Brexit Party woman is rather good. Unexpected.
I may be wrong but she had the breezy self-confidence of a privately educated person.
I suspect Farage will be falling out with some of his new MEPs fairly quickly. He has form.
https://twitter.com/freddiesayers/status/1134083908314828802
> > @Foxy said:
>
> > The Brexit Party woman is rather good. Unexpected.
>
> >
>
> > She used to work for Cambridge Analytica, so has been well versed in what buttons to press to get the message across.
>
>
>
> Oh well, I thought she was crap. Constantly flicking eyes to check notes, rather ranty etc etc,
>
> She was less swivel eyed than most BXPs.
>
> I suspect Farage will be falling out with some of his new MEPs fairly quickly. He has form.
At least the BBC has finally accepted that BXP has more than one representative and put someone on the telly other than box office Nige.
> But it seems some Labour MPs refuse to accept facts . They just keep peddling the same garbage. The media also peddle the narrative of Leave seats in the north
You keep peddling the same line over and over - and I suspect they know their own constituencies rather better than you do.
> If Jezza doesn't face a massive leadership challenge this summer on those polling numbers then I am a Dutchman.
>
>
>
> He is f***ed
>
> Who challenges him?
>
> What if he wins such a challenge?
Phillips would surely fancy a crack. It could almost be a no lose situation for her - even if she loses she'd be a national figure who would be an excellent defector for the Lib Dems to bag. She's very tribal Labour but has said she'd leave in some circumstances, so if she comes to the conclusion it's stand or the party is down the swannee, who knows?
I left Labour because I think Corbyn is an utterly appalling man and could never be removed. I'm starting to think he might be. If more than half your members voted against the party in the EU elections you're in real trouble, in theory it should be easier to vote for a leadership change than another party. Of course against that, you've got the inevitable rallying round, and the fact large swathes of pro-EU, moderate, and those disgusted by anti-semitism have left, but who knows?
> > @kle4 said:
> > If Jezza doesn't face a massive leadership challenge this summer on those polling numbers then I am a Dutchman.
> >
> >
> >
> > He is f***ed
> >
> > Who challenges him?
> >
> > What if he wins such a challenge?
>
> If he wins, Realist Labour MPs defect to a proper new movement (and refuse to let Chuka in)
>
> Within minutes they can become the second largest group in Parliament and remove Corbyn as LOTO
>
> It can - and needs - be done
Exactly. Watson needs to lead us all out of exile. 150 Labour MPs quit the Labour whip and form the x Party. Chukka will probably crawl back in for added shits and giggles. And swathes of members will join them.
Remember - it worked for UKIP. Got stuck with minority crazies who glued up the machinery to become unshiftable. Party members, MEPs and donors says tara, form a new party and sweep up almost all UKIPs votes in just weeks. Corbyn can keep Unite and CWU for now, Watson takes GMB and Unison, with Unite following after McClusky is ousted. Corbyn is then free to merge with Socialist Labour, Socialist Worker and the Communists...
This seems unlikely.
Was he planning this election for many months? If so, that makes him even wilier than I thought. He really is the best politician in Britain - unfortunately.
>
> Exactly. Watson needs to lead us all out of exile. 150 Labour MPs quit the Labour whip and form the x Party. Chukka will probably crawl back in for added shits and giggles. And swathes of members will join them.
>
> Remember - it worked for UKIP. Got stuck with minority crazies who glued up the machinery to become unshiftable. Party members, MEPs and donors says tara, form a new party and sweep up almost all UKIPs votes in just weeks. Corbyn can keep Unite and CWU for now, Watson takes GMB and Unison, with Unite following after McClusky is ousted. Corbyn is then free to merge with Socialist Labour, Socialist Worker and the Communists...<
++++
Do it! Please. For all of us. We need a sane social democrat opposition. Even a sane socialist opposition. But not these mad Jew-hating Marxists.
Think of your country. Do it.
If you do it I might even vote for you.