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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov LAB party members polling finds that just 45% backed the party last Thursday
Question for ?@UKLabour? – are you planning on expelling nearly half the membership? pic.twitter.com/I3z6ZOpF59
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https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1134129655420739585
It will mean Piers Morgan will probably self combust when Spurs win the European Cup before his beloved Arsenal.
> COYS
>
> Am relaxed about Spurs winning.
>
> It will mean Piers Morgan will probably self combust when Spurs win the European Cup before his beloved Arsenal.
Wise words.
> Remarkably, I'm one of the 19%. I've said before, and I'll say again, I'm surprised at the way I've suddenly been outflanked by people who I would once have considered to be well to my left.
I changed from UKIP in 2014 to Conservative in 2019.
I struggle to understand those who have moved from Remain to No Deal.
> Remarkably, I'm one of the 19%. I've said before, and I'll say again, I'm surprised at the way I've suddenly been outflanked by people who I would once have considered to be well to my left.
I'm also one of the 19%.
Or maybe a different 19%!
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/revealed-cherie-blair-voted-for-lib-dems-in-european-elections-a4154996.html
> Just finished updating the leadership spreadsheet, and now I have to add another name with Jesse Norman entering the race.
I think he'd struggle to be a household name in his own house.
> The Tory figure is even more 'interesting'
>
> https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1134129655420739585
Those figures show why if the Tories do not deliver Brexit they face a 1993 Canada style wipeout to the Brexit Party whom a majority of Tory members and 2017 Tory voters voted for last week.
The fact over a third of Labour members voted LD or Green shows the LDs could replace Labour as the main centre left party on an EUref2 or revoke ticket but Labour would still avoid wipeout, even though it lost local authorities to the Brexit Party and LDs last week it still won some, the Tories won none
> > @Sean_F said:
> > Remarkably, I'm one of the 19%. I've said before, and I'll say again, I'm surprised at the way I've suddenly been outflanked by people who I would once have considered to be well to my left.
>
> I changed from UKIP in 2014 to Conservative in 2019.
>
> I struggle to understand those who have moved from Remain to No Deal.
I totally get that people are frustrated that we haven't left yet. What I don't understand is people who are determined to veto something that is 80% of what they want (and with the likelihood they'll get the other 20% in the next few years) against the the risk of getting nothing.
I also don't understand why people across the spectrum are failing to realise that by not working to get something that is accepted by 70% of the population, they are storing up trouble for later. Remainers who think that if they get Brexit cancelled now, then it will just go away. Leavers who think that by throwing no bone to Remainers and those in the centre, won't be resented for years to come.
> So if 'only' 15% of Lab members voted LD, and only 7% of Tory members voted for anyone other than Tory/TBP, where did the Lib Dem 20% vote share come from? My guess is that both parties would have much bigger defections to the LDs from non-member voters.
Party members are a minority of voters.
https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/05/lord-ashcroft-my-eu-election-poll-most-former-tory-voters-say-they-will-stay-with-their-new-party-at-the-next-election.html
> > @another_richard said:
> > > @Sean_F said:
> > > Remarkably, I'm one of the 19%. I've said before, and I'll say again, I'm surprised at the way I've suddenly been outflanked by people who I would once have considered to be well to my left.
> >
> > I changed from UKIP in 2014 to Conservative in 2019.
> >
> > I struggle to understand those who have moved from Remain to No Deal.
>
> I totally get that people are frustrated that we haven't left yet. What I don't understand is people who are determined to veto something that is 80% of what they want (and with the likelihood they'll get the other 20% in the next few years) against the the risk of getting nothing.
>
> I also don't understand why people across the spectrum are failing to realise that by not working to get something that is accepted by 70% of the population, they are storing up trouble for later. Remainers who think that if they get Brexit cancelled now, then it will just go away. Leavers who think that by throwing no bone to Remainers and those in the centre, won't be resented for years to come.
Indeed.
There are also those No Dealers who assume that rejoining could not happen and so don't show any interest in the practicalities of No Deal.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1134155409890189312
Where they become all too relevant is in selecting party leaders (and thus party policy direction and tone) as we are about to see.
> How is she getting away with this grift?
>
> https://mobile.twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1134155409890189312
And people will fall for it
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1134151393764360192
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48462677
> Why aren't you talking about this?
>
> https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1134151393764360192
Realignment has arrived until we decide on Brexit
> Why aren't you talking about this?
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1134151393764360192
>
>
>
> Is it real?<
++++
No idea. But Guido has good sources.
It's also quite believable. What happened to Scottish politics post indyref is happening to the UK, as a whole, post euro-ref.
EDIT: *might* be happening. It is just rumour at the moment. But what a delicious rumour.
> Why aren't you talking about this?
>
> https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1134151393764360192
Electoral Calculus says those figures make the Labour Party the largest party under FPTP on 202, Brexit Party second on 139, Tories third on 117, LDs up but only to 115, then SNP on 55
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=19&LAB=19&LIB=22&UKIP=1.9&Green=1.7&ChUK=0.0&Brexit=24&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
> https://mobile.twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1134155409890189312
> And people will fall for it
>
> I don't have a pet (they die) nor a plant (they die). I have books (so far not dead) instead. Is £400 a lot for a cat?
No idea if she has a cat or not, but £400 for vets fees aren't that high if the cat has anything at all major wrong.
> > @Byronic said:
> > Why aren't you talking about this?
> >
> > https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1134151393764360192
>
> Realignment has arrived until we decide on Brexit
Realignment has arrived. The extent of the impact really does depend on how quickly Brexit does or does not occur.
[Note to self. Do not buy cat]
> Why aren't you talking about this?
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1134151393764360192
>
>
>
> Is it real?
We'll find out later, but either way it's not "real", because there is no election tomorrow and we are very far from one
>
> Good to know, thank you
>
> [Note to self. Do not buy cat]
Cats are ace! But no, don't buy one, get a rescue cat
They'll sit in your lap but you aren't allowed to touch them, they both cost a lot of money.
> > @nichomar said:
> > Why aren't you talking about this?
> >
> >
> >
> > https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1134151393764360192
> >
> >
> >
> > Is it real?
>
> We'll find out later, but either way it's not "real", because there is no election tomorrow and we are very far from one<
====
Very far from one?? At most we are three years from an election, that's not eternity. Also, as you might have noted, the government has no majority, and has to force through a policy disliked by a large number of MPs, so it could fall at any time. And then we have an election.
> > @Byronic said:
> > Why aren't you talking about this?
> >
> > https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1134151393764360192
>
> Electoral Calculus says those figures make the Labour Party the largest party under FPTP on 202, Brexit Party second on 137, Tories third on 117, LDs up but only to 115, then SNP on 55
>
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=19&LAB=19&LIB=22&UKIP=1.9&Green=1.7&ChUK=0.0&Brexit=24&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
>
> Very far from one?? At most we are three years from an election, that's not eternity. Also, as you might have noted, the government has no majority, and has to force through a policy disliked by a large number of MPs, so it could fall at any time. And then we have an election.
>
-----
In would only take a handful of MPs who want to embrace the realignment to trigger a General Election. It could come much sooner than anyone expects.
> I may regret starting this conversation, but...rescue cat?
Heh, a cat from a shelter. Lots of strays and people who dump cats or the owner dies/gets too ill to look after them.
> Cats are ace! But no, don't buy one, get a rescue cat
>
> I may regret starting this conversation, but...rescue cat?
A cat being rehomed by a shelter or similar charity - rather than buying a pedigree kitten from a breeder.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Byronic said:
> > > Why aren't you talking about this?
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1134151393764360192
> >
> > Electoral Calculus says those figures make the Labour Party the largest party under FPTP on 202, Brexit Party second on 137, Tories third on 117, LDs up but only to 115, then SNP on 55
> >
>
>
> https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=19&LAB=19&LIB=22&UKIP=1.9&Green=1.7&ChUK=0.0&Brexit=24&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
>
Lab/Brexit Party coalition?
That would be interesting.
> > @viewcode said:
>
> > https://mobile.twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1134155409890189312
>
> > And people will fall for it
>
> >
>
> > I don't have a pet (they die) nor a plant (they die). I have books (so far not dead) instead. Is £400 a lot for a cat?
>
>
>
> No idea if she has a cat or not, but £400 for vets fees aren't that high if the cat has anything at all major wrong.
>
> Good to know, thank you
>
> [Note to self. Do not buy cat]
>
> Cats are like strippers.
>
> They'll sit in your lap but you aren't allowed to touch them, they both cost a lot of money.
This is the first post on here I've ever 'Liked'.
On which note, how long has that Like button been there?
"Only one in three (32 per cent) of 2017 Tories who switched to the Brexit
Party said they would come home at the next general election; 52 per cent currently say they will stay with the Brexit Party. Conservatives who switched to the Lib Dems say they are even more likely to stay put: 61 per cent now say they will vote Lib Dem again at the general election, with only 22 per cent saying they expect to return to the Tories."
So: not, the Tories are doomed if they don't deliver brexit, but: the Tories are doomed.
Figures a bit odd, I think it means 52% of everyone but 61% of lib dem voters.
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > > @viewcode said:
> >
> > > https://mobile.twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1134155409890189312
> >
> > > And people will fall for it
> >
> > >
> >
> > > I don't have a pet (they die) nor a plant (they die). I have books (so far not dead) instead. Is £400 a lot for a cat?
> >
> >
> >
> > No idea if she has a cat or not, but £400 for vets fees aren't that high if the cat has anything at all major wrong.
> >
> > Good to know, thank you
> >
> > [Note to self. Do not buy cat]
> >
> > Cats are like strippers.
> >
> > They'll sit in your lap but you aren't allowed to touch them, they both cost a lot of money.
>
> This is the first post on here I've ever 'Liked'.
>
> On which note, how long has that Like button been there?
------------------------------------------
A few weeks or so. At the cost of a messed up quoting system!
> > @Byronic said:
>
> > Why aren't you talking about this?
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1134151393764360192
>
>
>
>
>
> Electoral Calculus says those figures make the Labour Party the largest party under FPTP on 202, Brexit Party second on 137, Tories third on 117, LDs fourth on 115 and then SNP on 55.
>
>
>
> As hard as it would be to predict numbers on those sorts of vote shares, it does rather suggest why Labour are more willing to roll the dice.
Ignore my last post, Labour would be first and the Brexit Party second, Tories third and LDs 4th (trying to calculate on the train and lost connection, apologies).
Labour and LD and SNP coalition the likely outcome from that
> > @nichomar said:
> > Why aren't you talking about this?
> >
> >
> >
> > https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1134151393764360192
> >
> >
> >
> > Is it real?<
>
> ++++
>
> No idea. But Guido has good sources.
>
> It's also quite believable. What happened to Scottish politics post indyref is happening to the UK, as a whole, post euro-ref.
>
>
> EDIT: *might* be happening. It is just rumour at the moment. But what a delicious rumour.
Except it's 4 snarling fearful parties taking chunks out of each other rather than one party stomping on the diddy ones. Probably more entertaining, all in all.
(The MP has written two good books on Edmund Burke and Adam Smith. Not sure how good he is at singing though.)
> How is she getting away with this grift?
>
> https://mobile.twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1134155409890189312
Dunno. It might be grift and it might be genuine and it might be both. Some people have no savings and live from pay cheque to pay cheque. And when I say some I mean many. One unexpected bill wipes out their savings; a second drives them to the moneylenders.
Just this afternoon the woman in front of me at the supermarket checkout discovered she did not have enough money. She was embarrassed and I was frustrated at the delay while she negotiated with her small children and the cashier what should go back (so frustrated I paid the difference).
These people might be poor, or they might be the middle-class JAMs Theresa May wanted to help before she got sidetracked by Brexit. Mostly they have played by the rules and paid attention at school and gone out to work, but life's unfair and globalisation or (more often) automation has taken away the best jobs, and their wages have stagnated/ You can see why they'd fall for a snake oil salesman selling Brexit or Trumpism or Islamism or any other simplistic analysis.
> >
> > EDIT: *might* be happening. It is just rumour at the moment. But what a delicious rumour.
>
>
> Except it's 4 snarling fearful parties taking chunks out of each other rather than one party stomping on the diddy ones. Probably more entertaining, all in all. <
++++
Not sure you could ever call the Lib Dems "snarling", but yes, it is highly entertaining, like a kind of dystopian political bloodsport. More!
Thank you. I thought a rescue cat was a cat that rescues things, not a cat that has been rescued. I learn something new every day.
And with today’s nonsense from Corbyn he really is doing his best to help them.
It seems that no matter how many facts you throw at him and Milne they live in their Lexiteer bubble . Labour are losing four times as many Remainers than Leavers .
> > @nichomar said:
> > Why aren't you talking about this?
> >
> >
> >
> > https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1134151393764360192
> >
> >
> >
> > Is it real?
>
> We'll find out later, but either way it's not "real", because there is no election tomorrow and we are very far from one
With that survey we are an awful lot further away than we were on Monday - were the new Tory leader to call a general election it's no longer a brave decision, it's a suicidal one...
> Whether that You Gov is confirmed Labour are in danger of cementing more Labour Remainers moving to the Lib Dems .
>
> And with today’s nonsense from Corbyn he really is doing his best to help them.
>
> It seems that no matter how many facts you throw at him and Milne they live in their Lexiteer bubble . Labour are losing four times as many Remainers to Leavers .
The crucial thing that embeds this shift is that Tory Remainers are also going to the Lib Dems, and Labour Leavers are going to the Brexit Party, albeit in smaller numbers. That means that any shift of the major parties to try to counteract what's happening will just make it worse. They are both stuffed.
> > @another_richard said:
> > > @Sean_F said:
> > > Remarkably, I'm one of the 19%. I've said before, and I'll say again, I'm surprised at the way I've suddenly been outflanked by people who I would once have considered to be well to my left.
> >
> > I changed from UKIP in 2014 to Conservative in 2019.
> >
> > I struggle to understand those who have moved from Remain to No Deal.
>
> I totally get that people are frustrated that we haven't left yet. What I don't understand is people who are determined to veto something that is 80% of what they want (and with the likelihood they'll get the other 20% in the next few years) against the the risk of getting nothing.
>
> I also don't understand why people across the spectrum are failing to realise that by not working to get something that is accepted by 70% of the population, they are storing up trouble for later. Remainers who think that if they get Brexit cancelled now, then it will just go away. Leavers who think that by throwing no bone to Remainers and those in the centre, won't be resented for years to come.
Who leaked this question from next month's Maths A level?
Sure, on numbers like this Labour won't want one either, but the new deadline will be coming up in October, and something has to give - unless a bunch of MPs become accepting of no deal/referendum or the WA, the government will not have a majority for anything and an election might occur. Particularly when Labour have reason to worry, but also know the Tories will be hurt worse.
We're no further away from an election because of polls like this unless it leads to the various sides giving in. Do you see any sign of that? I sure do not.
>
> Leavers who think that by throwing no bone to Remainers and those in the centre, won't be resented for years to come.
>
--------
The main bone Leavers could throw starts with saying, "I'm sorry, I might have misjudged this..." but their need for validation prevents that.
> > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
> > > @nichomar said:
> > > Why aren't you talking about this?
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1134151393764360192
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Is it real?
> >
> > We'll find out later, but either way it's not "real", because there is no election tomorrow and we are very far from one
>
> With that survey we are an awful lot further away than we were on Monday - were the new Tory leader to call a general election it's no longer a brave decision, it's a suicidal one...
If the Tories call an election before Brexit happens, my guess is the results will not just look a bit like the %ages for the Euro elections last week, but will actually polarise further.
Under FPTP it's winner takes all. Which means that even if Brexit isn't your primary motivator for voting, it makes sense to either back the Lib Dems (to stop Farage / the right wing) or Brexit Party (once it becomes clear the Tories cannot win a GE).
Exciting times.
> > @another_richard said:
> > > @Sean_F said:
> > > Remarkably, I'm one of the 19%. I've said before, and I'll say again, I'm surprised at the way I've suddenly been outflanked by people who I would once have considered to be well to my left.
> >
> > I changed from UKIP in 2014 to Conservative in 2019.
> >
> > I struggle to understand those who have moved from Remain to No Deal.
>
> I totally get that people are frustrated that we haven't left yet. What I don't understand is people who are determined to veto something that is 80% of what they want (and with the likelihood they'll get the other 20% in the next few years) against the the risk of getting nothing.
>
> I also don't understand why people across the spectrum are failing to realise that by not working to get something that is accepted by 70% of the population, they are storing up trouble for later. Remainers who think that if they get Brexit cancelled now, then it will just go away. Leavers who think that by throwing no bone to Remainers and those in the centre, won't be resented for years to come.
Because they are fanatical maniacs.
>
> The crucial thing that embeds this shift is that Tory Remainers are also going to the Lib Dems, and Labour Leavers are going to the Brexit Party, albeit in smaller numbers. That means that any shift of the major parties to try to counteract what's happening will just make it worse. They are both stuffed. <
+++++
There is a difference, however. The Tories have an exit route out of disaster, Labour do not, or at least not at the moment.
The Tories have to deliver some kind of Brexit (yes that is hard, but it is do-able). if that happens they might expect to recover, at least partly. Labour, by contrast, are stuck with a leader who refuses to take a firm position, thus alienating all sides of the argument (AND he's a sinister old Trot). Labour are stuffed until they get rid of Jeremy, and there is no obvious way of ditching Jeremy.
“I was in a meeting talking about developing vaccines for ASF. Sorry you weren’t my #1 priority...”
No problem; I didn’t think for a moment I would be.
My concern was that you were contributing what sounded a lot like FUD to the MMR debate, and I enquired about supporting data.
I thought it might be a simple question for you.
Morristown is lovely, up there with Summit. Parsippany is a few miles to the north but a whole lot less nice
> Remarkably, I'm one of the 19%. I've said before, and I'll say again, I'm surprised at the way I've suddenly been outflanked by people who I would once have considered to be well to my left.
Me too.
And, I'm convinced some of them are still to my Left as well.
"Have I mentioned Mike's holiday begins tomorrow?"
...............................................................................
LibDems should pay Mike Smithson to stay on holiday for the rest of the year....
> a Swiss, single market Brexit would please nobody but be acceptable to 70% of the population. Has been the clear way forward since the referendum.
------
It was made impossible by a Leave campaign that focussed on immigration. That's been clear since before the referendum.
WA - dead
Renegotiation - requiring the EU to fold despite holding firm this entire time
No deal - parliament will act to prevent
referendum - no Tory leader will be allowed to suggest it
Only one of those options might get support from Tory MPs and see Brexit happen, and it is dependent on an external group doing exactly as they want.
I sometimes think the best idea would be to to discover an alien invasion force heading for the earth (that will conveniently take a few years to get here) for us all to unite against.
> > @nunuone said:
> > How is she getting away with this grift?
> >
> > https://mobile.twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1134155409890189312
>
> Dunno. It might be grift and it might be genuine and it might be both. Some people have no savings and live from pay cheque to pay cheque. And when I say some I mean many. One unexpected bill wipes out their savings; a second drives them to the moneylenders.
>
> Just this afternoon the woman in front of me at the supermarket checkout discovered she did not have enough money. She was embarrassed and I was frustrated at the delay while she negotiated with her small children and the cashier what should go back (so frustrated I paid the difference).
>
> These people might be poor, or they might be the middle-class JAMs Theresa May wanted to help before she got sidetracked by Brexit. Mostly they have played by the rules and paid attention at school and gone out to work, but life's unfair and globalisation or (more often) automation has taken away the best jobs, and their wages have stagnated/ You can see why they'd fall for a snake oil salesman selling Brexit or Trumpism or Islamism or any other simplistic analysis.
Person at checkout doesn’t have enough for groceries. That’s like buses coming in twos or British Gas digging up the newly relaid road from the council. It’s no more a reason for brexit than a thousand other things.
Maybe those voting to leave the European Union just wanted to leave the European Union?
In response to @TheKitchenCabinet who said this -
“I am a Governor at a primary school where this has now become a hot topic as we have a similar demographic to some of the Birmingham schools. The view of many parents can be summed up by one's comment that "I brought my child to this country to get a good education, not so he can be taught it is fine to be gay.
Logical argument won't get you far when you are dealing with that mentality.
What I am annoyed at though is that the Government should have realised that this had the potential to cause trouble and it should have been ready to offer support and assistance where needed. Instead, schools and headteachers have been left out to dry and to cope with the backlash.”
If that parent brought their child here from somewhere else then frankly they can go back there if they don’t like our education. If they're born here then they need to have the same education as every other British resident. And they need to be taught that being gay is not a choice, is normal and is fine.
I totally agree that the silence of the authorities has been shameful.
Even more, it looks as if some of the propaganda being spread by those protesting against the anti-bullying programme is utterly inaccurate and those spreading it have an agenda. Shades of how the Danish cartoons controversy was stirred up. But now the fight is on it is a fight the state must win.
Still available at 300/1.
> Old allegiances are breaking down. Some diehard party loyalists on both sides are among the last to notice precisely because they don’t feel the new dividing lines in the same way.
But, that works both ways.
The right leader of either the Conservatives or Labour could capture the mood.
> > @nunuone said:
> > How is she getting away with this grift?
> >
> > https://mobile.twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1134155409890189312
>
> And people will fall for it
Standard shakedown.
Not percent. Just 100 members...
[Puts on sunglasses, "The Who" on soundtrack...]
I like pigs. Dogs look up to you. Cats look down on you. Pigs treat you as equals.
>
> How, exactly, is Brexit doable at this point for the Tories?
>
> WA - dead
> Renegotiation - requiring the EU to fold despite holding firm this entire time
> No deal - parliament will act to prevent
> referendum - no Tory leader will be allowed to suggest it
>
> Only one of those options might get support from Tory MPs and see Brexit happen, and it is dependent on an external group doing exactly as they want. <
+++++
Yes, Brexit is difficult to do. But the legal default is No Deal. And we now have France AND Germany saying they will veto an extension in October (unless there is a GE/2nd vote)
So Brexit will "do itself" in the end - Remainers are far too complacent in thinking they will easily be able to vote it down in the Commons. No Deal beckons. Brace.
In the States shelters are theoretically “not for profit”.
VCA - a division of Mars - receives donations of $120m per year for animal shelters. It’s one of their most profitable businesses.
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > Old allegiances are breaking down. Some diehard party loyalists on both sides are among the last to notice precisely because they don’t feel the new dividing lines in the same way.
>
> But, that works both ways.
>
> The right leader of either the Conservatives or Labour could capture the mood.
Perhaps. Neither look as though that is going to happen in practice.
> > @oxfordsimon said:
> > > @nunuone said:
> > > How is she getting away with this grift?
> > >
> > > https://mobile.twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1134155409890189312
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> > And people will fall for it
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> Standard shakedown.<
+++++
The son of Harry from Harry's Last Stand is the same. It's gone from a noble cause to him simply asking for more money, just because his late dad was an old socialist. Horrible.
> > @williamglenn said:
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> > The crucial thing that embeds this shift is that Tory Remainers are also going to the Lib Dems, and Labour Leavers are going to the Brexit Party, albeit in smaller numbers. That means that any shift of the major parties to try to counteract what's happening will just make it worse. They are both stuffed. <
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> +++++
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> There is a difference, however. The Tories have an exit route out of disaster, Labour do not, or at least not at the moment.
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> The Tories have to deliver some kind of Brexit (yes that is hard, but it is do-able). if that happens they might expect to recover, at least partly. Labour, by contrast, are stuck with a leader who refuses to take a firm position, thus alienating all sides of the argument (AND he's a sinister old Trot). Labour are stuffed until they get rid of Jeremy, and there is no obvious way of ditching Jeremy.
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> How, exactly, is Brexit doable at this point for the Tories?
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> WA - dead
> Renegotiation - requiring the EU to fold despite holding firm this entire time
> No deal - parliament will act to prevent
> referendum - no Tory leader will be allowed to suggest it
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> Only one of those options might get support from Tory MPs and see Brexit happen, and it is dependent on an external group doing exactly as they want.
the failure to get the WA through was as much about May’s inability to bring people into a coalition of support as it was the agreement itself. Labour leadership just put hurdles that couldn’t be reached, but enough back benchers itching to support it. A better politician would have got it through.
[Seriously. Was I the only one who was struck by the names?]