> @Pulpstar said: > rcs1000 > > > > - “Electoral Calculus has the LDs losing seats in Scotland, on a more than three fold increase in vote share.” > > > > Yes, I’ve noticed this. At a certain point when both the SNP and the SLDs are doing well, it tips over heavily in the SNP’s favour. > > > > This is due to Baxter’s complex model. The SLD rise would be spread around a lot of constituencies, primarily SCon held or SCon strong second place. This doesn’t really get the SLDs anywhere at all, but it allows the SNP to pretty much wipe out the Tories. Again. > > The SNP look in great shape to me, the Brexit Party almost perfectly cleaves the Ruth Davidson party into two whilst the Lib Dem surge hits the hardcore remainers of rump Scottish Labour.
... and in Edinburgh and Glasgow the Green surge helps to really hammer the Labour vote. Yes, the Greens also attract a few SNP voters, but this is not a problem when you are at about 40% in a five-way FPTP system. But it totally cripples Labour when they are struggling to stay in the teens. Down there, every single vote suddenly becomes very precious, and even their own members are voting Green, let alone less-dedicated voters.
> @williamglenn said: > > @Byronic said: > > > > I do wonder what the EU would do if threatened with No Deal. They blinked last time. Would they blink again? My guess is Britain will fold first, and call a new vote. > > > ------- > > Why do you keep saying they blinked? It's nonsense to characterise giving an extension as blinking. They haven't given an inch on the substance, and in fact have locked in the WA in its current form.<
++++
Of course the EU blinked. They were adamant there would be no extension unless there was a "major change in circumstances" - i.e. a new vote, election, etc.
Instead we just said "er, can we have more time" and they said "er, yes"
People like you who adore the EU and think it can't do anything wrong, and is eternally brilliant and strong and clever and admirable, are as mad as the Brexiteers who think the EU is eternally evil, stupid, dangerous and the EUSSR etc etc
> @brokenwheel said: > Labour's internal polling in Peterborough must be dire. > > I doubt it, if it were shadow cabinet would not be campaigning there.
For what it's worth, I've not had a request to go and help, which I'd expect if things were dire. But I've no inside info and would struggle to find Peterborough on the map. The YouGov report looks plausible enough for a post-Euros bounce, but whether that will translate into a by-election win, who knows?
> I do wonder what the EU would do if threatened with No Deal. They blinked last time. Would they blink again? My guess is Britain will fold first, and call a new vote.
>
-------
Why do you keep saying they blinked? It's nonsense to characterise giving an extension as blinking. They haven't given an inch on the substance, and in fact have locked in the WA in its current form.
The EU is going to expel us. If the Tories behave like bloody fools and elect a dimwit with no grasp of reality - of which there are plenty on offer - as PM, moreover a dimwit with no plan, why should they extend. I suspect they are better prepared for no deal than Britain and have other concerns to be dealing with.
And if No Deal, possibly followed by Corbyn, crashes the economy, there will be plenty of businesses relocating within the EU.
I fear we are heading back to Sick Man of Europe territory again. Those who will likely suffer most will be precisely those groups who voted for Brexit in the hope/belief that it would make their lives better. I would not count on their continuing support if I were the party on whose watch that happened.
It is true the EU technically blinked last time, and gave us more time even though we had nothing even approaching a plan or a change in circumstances, and we have spent the time since pissing about. I wouldn't say it is guaranteed they would blink and let us extend without a plan again, but at some point the patience seems like it would have to run out - being in this limbo is not doing us or them any good, Macron was right to push for a shorter endpoint. Sadly we'll have several more months of the party's pissing about, waiting for the true crunch period post summer before they even attempt to close things down again.
The new Con leader will never countenance another referendum
For Con the only way they will ever recover is to deliver Brexit. So it will be delivered. One way or another.
I would have agreed with you until about half an hour ago. I am beginning to wonder if it is actually true though. Logically you deliver Brexit and the reason for being for the Brexit Party goes away. But does it actually go away? Imagine we have just left. Something will be going wrong somewhere. Up pops Farage - "you need a Brexit Party to make Brexit work".
> @Pulpstar said: > Here is one result from that poll put into electoral calculus I won't be betting on come the next GE ! > > Brighton Pavilion East Sussex Brexit gain from Green : Caroline Lucas
That's rather curious. Presumably they somehow feed in the trends from surrounding areas as part of the calculation: if TBP are monstering the adjoining Sussex rural/coastal seats (which I imagine they are) then then that **must** have an impact there too.
> @kle4 said: > It is true the EU technically blinked last time, and gave us more time even though we had nothing even approaching a plan or a change in circumstances, and we have spent the time since pissing about. I wouldn't say it is guaranteed they would blink and let us extend without a plan again, but at some point the patience seems like it would have to run out - being in this limbo is not doing us or them any good, Macron was right to push for a shorter endpoint. Sadly we'll have several more months of the party's pissing about, waiting for the true crunch period post summer before they even attempt to close things down again.<
++++
A good summary. One of the few encouraging things here is that the Tory party (for all its terrible and plentiful flaws) does seem to comprehend the urgency. e.g. there was much talk of a leadership contest stretching over the summer, with a final vote in September.
Instead they have drastically truncated it, and we will have a new PM by July. Quick work.
We do not have the luxury of a summer sitting by the pool. While the EU is sipping their pina coladas the new PM has to come up with SOMETHING.
The new Con leader will never countenance another referendum
For Con the only way they will ever recover is to deliver Brexit. So it will be delivered. One way or another.
I would have agreed with you until about half an hour ago. I am beginning to wonder if it is actually true though. Logically you deliver Brexit and the reason for being for the Brexit Party goes away. But does it actually go away? Imagine we have just left. Something will be going wrong somewhere. Up pops Farage - "you need a Brexit Party to make Brexit work".
Any sort of Brexit being delivered spikes Farage's guns, sure some will care but BXP returns to a sub 10% party I think.
The new Con leader will never countenance another referendum
For Con the only way they will ever recover is to deliver Brexit. So it will be delivered. One way or another.
I would have agreed with you until about half an hour ago. I am beginning to wonder if it is actually true though. Logically you deliver Brexit and the reason for being for the Brexit Party goes away. But does it actually go away? Imagine we have just left. Something will be going wrong somewhere. Up pops Farage - "you need a Brexit Party to make Brexit work".
It might not go away, but making the I think not unreasonable assumption that some level of its current support is from people who just want Brexit to happen one way or another, it seems reasonable therefore to think that it would be diminished somewhat at the very least.
> @StuartDickson said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > rcs1000 > > > > > > > > - “Electoral Calculus has the LDs losing seats in Scotland, on a more than three fold increase in vote share.” > > > > > > > > Yes, I’ve noticed this. At a certain point when both the SNP and the SLDs are doing well, it tips over heavily in the SNP’s favour. > > > > > > > > This is due to Baxter’s complex model. The SLD rise would be spread around a lot of constituencies, primarily SCon held or SCon strong second place. This doesn’t really get the SLDs anywhere at all, but it allows the SNP to pretty much wipe out the Tories. Again. > > > > The SNP look in great shape to me, the Brexit Party almost perfectly cleaves the Ruth Davidson party into two whilst the Lib Dem surge hits the hardcore remainers of rump Scottish Labour. > > ... and in Edinburgh and Glasgow the Green surge helps to really hammer the Labour vote. Yes, the Greens also attract a few SNP voters, but this is not a problem when you are at about 40% in a five-way FPTP system. But it totally cripples Labour when they are struggling to stay in the teens. Down there, every single vote suddenly becomes very precious, and even their own members are voting Green, let alone less-dedicated voters.
One problem with Swinson as Leader is the risk of an SNP surge leaving the LDs leaderless post GE. A risk with most LDs of course, but there needs to be a good deputy leader.
On that note, good to see Jo and Rory have a sense of humour:
> Here is one result from that poll put into electoral calculus I won't be betting on come the next GE !
>
> Brighton Pavilion East Sussex Brexit gain from Green : Caroline Lucas
That's rather curious. Presumably they somehow feed in the trends from surrounding areas as part of the calculation: if TBP are monstering the adjoining Sussex rural/coastal seats (which I imagine they are) then then that must have an impact there too.
I know that part of the world well. I've lived in Hastings, Eastbourne, Brighton and Worthing. The Green pro-EU voting bits of Brighton really aren't very different from the Brexity Tory bits of Worthing and Shoreham. And Lib Dem voting Eastbourne and Labour voting and Brexity areas of Hastings all have a lot in common. I could easily imagine the whole South Downs coastal strip going Green, Brexit, Labour or Lib Dem. And I can guarantee a failure to deliver Brexit would be met with supreme indifference, and delivering it would not get you any reward.
> @Pulpstar said: > The new Con leader will never countenance another referendum > > > > For Con the only way they will ever recover is to deliver Brexit. So it will be delivered. One way or another. > > I would have agreed with you until about half an hour ago. I am beginning to wonder if it is actually true though. Logically you deliver Brexit and the reason for being for the Brexit Party goes away. But does it actually go away? Imagine we have just left. Something will be going wrong somewhere. Up pops Farage - "you need a Brexit Party to make Brexit work". > > > Any sort of Brexit being delivered spikes Farage's guns, sure some will care but BXP returns to a sub 10% party I think.<
+++++
Agreed. Farage and the BXP would survive Brexit (like cockroaches and a nuclear winter) but they would be much diminished. The fires of outrage would die down quite quickly, without the fuel of Brexit Denied. People would get on with their lives.
In that situation I expect Farage himself would get bored, and go off and do something else. TV presenter, maybe.
I heard Lucas talking about a potential deal with the Lib Dems. Any such deal would crystallise the remain choice and be dire news for Labour.
If I was the next Lib Dem leader (I left because I thought they should pass the WA) then I'd make the Greens a generous offer of not contesting the following :.
i) Brighton Pavilion (Obvious but a nice gesture for Lucas) ii) Bristol West (Yes it is a big Lib Dem chance but a seat the greens really can win. Ignore the mahoossive temporary Labour majority there, this seat has all the hallmarks of a Glasgow North West about it) iii) Norwich South iv) Sheffield Central v) Isle of Wight.
In return for not standing in ~ 100 of the Lib Dem top targets.
Sure it is lopsided, but Lucas knows precisely how FPTP works and might just take it or something like it.
The new Con leader will never countenance another referendum
For Con the only way they will ever recover is to deliver Brexit. So it will be delivered. One way or another.
I would have agreed with you until about half an hour ago. I am beginning to wonder if it is actually true though. Logically you deliver Brexit and the reason for being for the Brexit Party goes away. But does it actually go away? Imagine we have just left. Something will be going wrong somewhere. Up pops Farage - "you need a Brexit Party to make Brexit work".
It might not go away, but making the I think not unreasonable assumption that some level of its current support is from people who just want Brexit to happen one way or another, it seems reasonable therefore to think that it would be diminished somewhat at the very least.
Yes it's a reasonable assumption. How many of them have paid out lately.
> @Pulpstar said: > I heard Lucas talking about a potential deal with the Lib Dems. Any such deal would crystallise the remain choice and be dire news for Labour. > > If I was the next Lib Dem leader (I left because I thought they should pass the WA) then I'd make the Greens a generous offer of not contesting the following :. > > i) Brighton Pavilion (Obvious but a nice gesture for Lucas) > ii) Bristol West (Yes it is a big Lib Dem chance but a seat the greens really can win. Ignore the mahoossive temporary Labour majority there, this seat has all the hallmarks of a Glasgow North West about it) > iii) Norwich South > iv) Sheffield Central > v) Isle of Wight. > > In return for not standing in ~ 100 of the Lib Dem top targets. > > Sure it is lopsided, but Lucas knows precisely how FPTP works and might just take it or something like it.
I'd add some agreement on adopted an eye-catching climate change policy, but basically the same. Makes it easier to maybe merge/absorb the whole party if it goes well.
> @Charles said: > The new Con leader will never countenance another referendum > > For Con the only way they will ever recover is to deliver Brexit. So it will be delivered. One way or another. > > You really think delivering Brexit will be the end of it? Oh sweet summer child. > > Think of it like a computer game > > Delivering Brexit gets you to level two
One of those old Spectrum or C64 games where the tape takes fucking ages to load and then it crashes at the final point?
i reckon BXP on 10-20% in Peterborough at 8/1 is worth a punt with Shadsy. They are untested in an FPTP election, and there are a good number of Brexity splinter parties, including the Tories. 10-20% would be just below their national polling.
Is he untainted because no-one has a clue who he is? Honestly, I follow politics pretty closely and my first reaction was that this was about Canadian politics (I was thinking of Steve Harper).
@Pulpstar Lucas is not leader of the Greens is she? I doubt she has the power to agree to that.
Yes sorry, it'd be Bartley and Berry. In this country Lucas is Mrs Green though, just as Nige is always perceived as Mr Brexit even when they're not leaders of any particular parties.
> @Cyclefree said: > The EU is going to expel us. If the Tories behave like bloody fools and elect a dimwit with no grasp of reality - of which there are plenty on offer - as PM, moreover a dimwit with no plan, why should they extend. I suspect they are better prepared for no deal than Britain and have other concerns to be dealing with.
They should extend because No Deal is the worst of the possible ultimate outcomes (Revoke, Deal and Gimp Remain are all better) for their citizens who live in the UK, and their businesses that trade with the UK. It may ultimately end up happening anyway, but that's no reason to actively *cause* it to happen when it might still be avoidable. If Brexit is in stasis and there are no negotiations then it's not even sucking up anybody's time, aside from say annual meetings to grant further extensions.
However I think the difficulty is if the person the British choose is not only a dimwit with no plan, but a dimwit who will actively damage ongoing decision-making to get approving domestic press coverage. This is something you couldn't really see TMay doing but some of the others might.
> @Pulpstar said: > I heard Lucas talking about a potential deal with the Lib Dems. Any such deal would crystallise the remain choice and be dire news for Labour. > > If I was the next Lib Dem leader (I left because I thought they should pass the WA) then I'd make the Greens a generous offer of not contesting the following :. > > i) Brighton Pavilion (Obvious but a nice gesture for Lucas) > ii) Bristol West (Yes it is a big Lib Dem chance but a seat the greens really can win. Ignore the mahoossive temporary Labour majority there, this seat has all the hallmarks of a Glasgow North West about it) > iii) Norwich South > iv) Sheffield Central > v) Isle of Wight. > > In return for not standing in ~ 100 of the Lib Dem top targets. > > Sure it is lopsided, but Lucas knows precisely how FPTP works and might just take it or something like it.
I think Caroline Lucas should stand for the LD leadership
> The new Con leader will never countenance another referendum
>
> For Con the only way they will ever recover is to deliver Brexit. So it will be delivered. One way or another.
>
> You really think delivering Brexit will be the end of it? Oh sweet summer child.
>
> Think of it like a computer game
>
> Delivering Brexit gets you to level two
One of those old Spectrum or C64 games where the tape takes fucking ages to load and then it crashes at the final point?
Better than the situation at present which is akin to some modern games, where you just perform monotonous tasks with the illusion of progress, often aligned to some nonsense tribe system to foster false competition, and are constantly charged for the privilege to boot.
This is fantastic, I hope we get even more to come. I'm being serious, I don't even see the problem with a huge field, since the absolute no hopers will drop out after a couple of rounds anyway, and given the lack of talent on display why not chance your arm?
The polling booth in UK politics is sacrosanct, putting your cross in any box is on your conscious and will never be known. Alistair Campbell didn't just vote LibDems, he was on TV advising Labour Party members to vote LibDem. AC knows the rules, hell, he applied them often enough on any one who disagreed with Blair. He is also involved with the coup plotters up to his neck. There are several others, Hodge, Watson included whose coats are on very shooglie hooks.
To my mind the only realistic prospect of avoiding No Deal is for a loony to be elected leader of the Tory party, and then for enough sane Tories to support a government of national unity based on a Deal versus Remain referendum.
Put like that is sounds extremely improbable, but the other options seem even more unlikely.
> @Quincel said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > I heard Lucas talking about a potential deal with the Lib Dems. Any such deal would crystallise the remain choice and be dire news for Labour. > > > > If I was the next Lib Dem leader (I left because I thought they should pass the WA) then I'd make the Greens a generous offer of not contesting the following :. > > > > i) Brighton Pavilion (Obvious but a nice gesture for Lucas) > > ii) Bristol West (Yes it is a big Lib Dem chance but a seat the greens really can win. Ignore the mahoossive temporary Labour majority there, this seat has all the hallmarks of a Glasgow North West about it) > > iii) Norwich South > > iv) Sheffield Central > > v) Isle of Wight. > > > > In return for not standing in ~ 100 of the Lib Dem top targets. > > > > Sure it is lopsided, but Lucas knows precisely how FPTP works and might just take it or something like it. > > I'd add some agreement on adopted an eye-catching climate change policy, but basically the same. Makes it easier to maybe merge/absorb the whole party if it goes well.
But the Lib Dems and Greens have some major differences. Can't see them merging. Although a short term pact is feasible.
The polling booth in UK politics is sacrosanct, putting your cross in any box is on your conscious and will never be known. Alistair Campbell didn't just vote LibDems, he was on TV advising Labour Party members to vote LibDem. AC knows the rules, hell, he applied them often enough on any one who disagreed with Blair. He is also involved with the coup plotters up to his neck. There are several others, Hodge, Watson included whose coats are on very shooglie hooks.
> @MikeSmithson said: > > I think Caroline Lucas should stand for the LD leadership -------
She'd be a better candidate than Swinson. Given that it increasingly looks like the LD leader needs to be a PM-in-waiting, they might be better off sticking with Vince for the time being.
> > I heard Lucas talking about a potential deal with the Lib Dems. Any such deal would crystallise the remain choice and be dire news for Labour.
> >
> > If I was the next Lib Dem leader (I left because I thought they should pass the WA) then I'd make the Greens a generous offer of not contesting the following :.
> >
> > i) Brighton Pavilion (Obvious but a nice gesture for Lucas)
> > ii) Bristol West (Yes it is a big Lib Dem chance but a seat the greens really can win. Ignore the mahoossive temporary Labour majority there, this seat has all the hallmarks of a Glasgow North West about it)
> > iii) Norwich South
> > iv) Sheffield Central
> > v) Isle of Wight.
> >
> > In return for not standing in ~ 100 of the Lib Dem top targets.
> >
> > Sure it is lopsided, but Lucas knows precisely how FPTP works and might just take it or something like it.
>
> I'd add some agreement on adopted an eye-catching climate change policy, but basically the same. Makes it easier to maybe merge/absorb the whole party if it goes well.
But the Lib Dems and Greens have some major differences. Can't see them merging. Although a short term pact is feasible.
They seem to be getting closer all the time, which isn't a positive as far as I'm concerned given the Greens.
The polling booth in UK politics is sacrosanct, putting your cross in any box is on your conscious and will never be known. Alistair Campbell didn't just vote LibDems, he was on TV advising Labour Party members to vote LibDem. AC knows the rules, hell, he applied them often enough on any one who disagreed with Blair. He is also involved with the coup plotters up to his neck. There are several others, Hodge, Watson included whose coats are on very shooglie hooks.
Rattled.
Yep, it is bunker time. Steiner will save us, with his counterattack.
> @NickPalmer said: > > @brokenwheel said: > > Labour's internal polling in Peterborough must be dire. > > > > I doubt it, if it were shadow cabinet would not be campaigning there. > > For what it's worth, I've not had a request to go and help, which I'd expect if things were dire. But I've no inside info and would struggle to find Peterborough on the map. The YouGov report looks plausible enough for a post-Euros bounce, but whether that will translate into a by-election win, who knows?
FWIW I think we may be approaching a tipping point at which many remainers will abandon Labour. Morale amongst party members I have spoken to this week is lower than I have ever known, many people are on the verge of giving up and some have already left. This could be avoided if Corbyn made a clear unequivocal commitment to a remain and reform policy but no one thinks he is going to do this and he has equivocated for so long that many would not believe he was genuine if he did make such a commitment. And we have the shame of the EHRC review. It's a very dark time for Labour, we are in almost as bad a position as the Tories. The Tory crisis is existential, ours need not be but unless the leadership takes its collective head out of the sand we will soon follow them down the political pan.
> @dixiedean said: > > @Quincel said: > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > I heard Lucas talking about a potential deal with the Lib Dems. Any such deal would crystallise the remain choice and be dire news for Labour. > > > > > > If I was the next Lib Dem leader (I left because I thought they should pass the WA) then I'd make the Greens a generous offer of not contesting the following :. > > > > > > i) Brighton Pavilion (Obvious but a nice gesture for Lucas) > > > ii) Bristol West (Yes it is a big Lib Dem chance but a seat the greens really can win. Ignore the mahoossive temporary Labour majority there, this seat has all the hallmarks of a Glasgow North West about it) > > > iii) Norwich South > > > iv) Sheffield Central > > > v) Isle of Wight. > > > > > > In return for not standing in ~ 100 of the Lib Dem top targets. > > > > > > Sure it is lopsided, but Lucas knows precisely how FPTP works and might just take it or something like it. > > > > I'd add some agreement on adopted an eye-catching climate change policy, but basically the same. Makes it easier to maybe merge/absorb the whole party if it goes well. > > But the Lib Dems and Greens have some major differences. Can't see them merging. Although a short term pact is feasible.
I don't see the LDs and Greens being natural bedfellows. In many ways both are small parties made up of 2 distinct wings. Only part of each party will be comfortable with working with the other party. And uneasy partnerships like that will be very tetchy.
Just within my circle, there is a regular LD voter who would never countenance voting Green - she agrees with much of the green agenda but cannot stand some of their more extreme positions.
A lot of people think the public are thick, they are just too afraid to say it. A lot more imply they think the public are thick every time they say the people were fooled, or did not know what things meant, even though many many people told them,or countered Leave comments at the time. So it would be nice for someone to be honest that is what they think.
> @MarqueeMark said: > > @solarflare said: > > They're just making these Tory candidates up now. I half expect the next one to be Amanda Hugankiss. > > If they can get Corporal Punishment to stand, he'd be very popular with the membership.....
Miles better than Private Browsing, that's for sure.
> @NickPalmer said: > > @brokenwheel said: > > Labour's internal polling in Peterborough must be dire. > > > > I doubt it, if it were shadow cabinet would not be campaigning there. > > For what it's worth, I've not had a request to go and help, which I'd expect if things were dire.
Hate to break it to you Nick, but they've decided things are so bad for Labour NOT EVEN YOU can save them......
> @oxfordsimon said: > > @dixiedean said: > > > @Quincel said: > > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > I heard Lucas talking about a potential deal with the Lib Dems. Any such deal would crystallise the remain choice and be dire news for Labour. > > > > > > > > If I was the next Lib Dem leader (I left because I thought they should pass the WA) then I'd make the Greens a generous offer of not contesting the following :. > > > > > > > > i) Brighton Pavilion (Obvious but a nice gesture for Lucas) > > > > ii) Bristol West (Yes it is a big Lib Dem chance but a seat the greens really can win. Ignore the mahoossive temporary Labour majority there, this seat has all the hallmarks of a Glasgow North West about it) > > > > iii) Norwich South > > > > iv) Sheffield Central > > > > v) Isle of Wight. > > > > > > > > In return for not standing in ~ 100 of the Lib Dem top targets. > > > > > > > > Sure it is lopsided, but Lucas knows precisely how FPTP works and might just take it or something like it. > > > > > > I'd add some agreement on adopted an eye-catching climate change policy, but basically the same. Makes it easier to maybe merge/absorb the whole party if it goes well. > > > > But the Lib Dems and Greens have some major differences. Can't see them merging. Although a short term pact is feasible. > > I don't see the LDs and Greens being natural bedfellows. In many ways both are small parties made up of 2 distinct wings. Only part of each party will be comfortable with working with the other party. And uneasy partnerships like that will be very tetchy. > > Just within my circle, there is a regular LD voter who would never countenance voting Green - she agrees with much of the green agenda but cannot stand some of their more extreme positions.
I'm showing my bias here, but this is why I think the LDs absorbing the Greens could be beneficial for both. Caroline Lucas becomes deputy leader and the party adopts a very eye-catching climate change policy (net 0 emissions by 2030, maybe) and the party adopts generally more social democrat economic policy (i.e. the Lib Dems stop being quite centrist on economic policy). But otherwise the LD culture remains. What you end with is the Greens flagship issue being quite effectively mainstreamed while the socially liberal voters who back both parties are no longer split between the two.
But I appreciate many others would object to the above on various grounds.
> @John_McLean said: > The polling booth in UK politics is sacrosanct, putting your cross in any box is on your conscious and will never be known. Alistair Campbell didn't just vote LibDems, he was on TV advising Labour Party members to vote LibDem. AC knows the rules, hell, he applied them often enough on any one who disagreed with Blair. He is also involved with the coup plotters up to his neck. There are several others, Hodge, Watson included whose coats are on very shooglie hooks.
The polling booth in UK politics is sacrosanct, putting your cross in any box is on your conscious and will never be known. Alistair Campbell didn't just vote LibDems, he was on TV advising Labour Party members to vote LibDem. AC knows the rules, hell, he applied them often enough on any one who disagreed with Blair. He is also involved with the coup plotters up to his neck. There are several others, Hodge, Watson included whose coats are on very shooglie hooks.
Sounds like fake news to me.
When did Campbell tell people to vote Lib Dem? Can you provide evidence?
He only announced he had voted Lib Dem after the polls had closed.
> @John_McLean said: > The polling booth in UK politics is sacrosanct, putting your cross in any box is on your conscious and will never be known. Alistair Campbell didn't just vote LibDems, he was on TV advising Labour Party members to vote LibDem. AC knows the rules, hell, he applied them often enough on any one who disagreed with Blair. He is also involved with the coup plotters up to his neck. There are several others, Hodge, Watson included whose coats are on very shooglie hooks.
> @Quincel said: > > @oxfordsimon said: > > > @dixiedean said: > > > > @Quincel said: > > > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > > I heard Lucas talking about a potential deal with the Lib Dems. Any such deal would crystallise the remain choice and be dire news for Labour. > > > > > > > > > > If I was the next Lib Dem leader (I left because I thought they should pass the WA) then I'd make the Greens a generous offer of not contesting the following :. > > > > > > > > > > i) Brighton Pavilion (Obvious but a nice gesture for Lucas) > > > > > ii) Bristol West (Yes it is a big Lib Dem chance but a seat the greens really can win. Ignore the mahoossive temporary Labour majority there, this seat has all the hallmarks of a Glasgow North West about it) > > > > > iii) Norwich South > > > > > iv) Sheffield Central > > > > > v) Isle of Wight. > > > > > > > > > > In return for not standing in ~ 100 of the Lib Dem top targets. > > > > > > > > > > Sure it is lopsided, but Lucas knows precisely how FPTP works and might just take it or something like it. > > > > > > > > I'd add some agreement on adopted an eye-catching climate change policy, but basically the same. Makes it easier to maybe merge/absorb the whole party if it goes well. > > > > > > But the Lib Dems and Greens have some major differences. Can't see them merging. Although a short term pact is feasible. > > > > I don't see the LDs and Greens being natural bedfellows. In many ways both are small parties made up of 2 distinct wings. Only part of each party will be comfortable with working with the other party. And uneasy partnerships like that will be very tetchy. > > > > Just within my circle, there is a regular LD voter who would never countenance voting Green - she agrees with much of the green agenda but cannot stand some of their more extreme positions. > > I'm showing my bias here, but this is why I think the LDs absorbing the Greens could be beneficial for both. Caroline Lucas becomes deputy leader and the party adopts a very eye-catching climate change policy (net 0 emissions by 2030, maybe) and the party adopts generally more social democrat economic policy (i.e. the Lib Dems stop being quite centrist on economic policy). But otherwise the LD culture remains. What you end with is the Greens flagship issue being quite effectively mainstreamed while the socially liberal voters who back both parties are no longer split between the two. > > But I appreciate many others would object to the above on various grounds.
I fear you'd have a New Green Party again lickety split. There is a substantial wing of the Greens who want a more radical platform. And if Lucas joined the LDs you wouldn't need to look far for a leader-in- waiting. Which in itself would be de-stabilising. Anyways. Why merge when both are on the rise?
> @John_McLean said: > The polling booth in UK politics is sacrosanct, putting your cross in any box is on your conscious and will never be known. Alistair Campbell didn't just vote LibDems, he was on TV advising Labour Party members to vote LibDem. AC knows the rules, hell, he applied them often enough on any one who disagreed with Blair. He is also involved with the coup plotters up to his neck. There are several others, Hodge, Watson included whose coats are on very shooglie hooks.
Campbell did nor advise anyone to vote lib dem. He announced his vote after the polls had closed.
> @Gallowgate said: > The polling booth in UK politics is sacrosanct, putting your cross in any box is on your conscious and will never be known. Alistair Campbell didn't just vote LibDems, he was on TV advising Labour Party members to vote LibDem. AC knows the rules, hell, he applied them often enough on any one who disagreed with Blair. He is also involved with the coup plotters up to his neck. There are several others, Hodge, Watson included whose coats are on very shooglie hooks. > > Rattled.
And wrong, since AC was careful enough to keep under wraps who he was voting for (although he did say it wasn’t Labour) until polls had closed. So the OP’s “advising” is not correct.
I fear you'd have a New Green Party again lickety split. There is a substantial wing of the Greens who want a more radical platform. And if Lucas joined the LDs you wouldn't need to look far for a leader-in- waiting. Which in itself would be de-stabilising.
Anyways. Why merge when both are on the rise?
Because ultimately, when it comes to voters, they are fishing from the same pond. We have FPTP.
> > > > If I was the next Lib Dem leader (I left because I thought they should pass the WA) then I'd make the Greens a generous offer of not contesting the following :.
> > > >
> > > > i) Brighton Pavilion (Obvious but a nice gesture for Lucas)
> > > > ii) Bristol West (Yes it is a big Lib Dem chance but a seat the greens really can win. Ignore the mahoossive temporary Labour majority there, this seat has all the hallmarks of a Glasgow North West about it)
> > > > iii) Norwich South
> > > > iv) Sheffield Central
> > > > v) Isle of Wight.
> > > >
> > > > In return for not standing in ~ 100 of the Lib Dem top targets.
> > > >
> > > > Sure it is lopsided, but Lucas knows precisely how FPTP works and might just take it or something like it.
> > >
> > > I'd add some agreement on adopted an eye-catching climate change policy, but basically the same. Makes it easier to maybe merge/absorb the whole party if it goes well.
> >
> > But the Lib Dems and Greens have some major differences. Can't see them merging. Although a short term pact is feasible.
>
> I don't see the LDs and Greens
>
> Just within my circle,
I'm showing my bias here, but this is why I think the LDs absorbing the Greens could be beneficial for both. Caroline Lucas becomes deputy leader and the party adopts a very eye-catching climate change policy (net 0 emissions by 2030, maybe) and the party adopts generally more social democrat economic policy (i.e. the Lib Dems stop being quite centrist on economic policy). But otherwise the LD culture remains. What you end with is the Greens flagship issue being quite effectively mainstreamed while the socially liberal voters who back both parties are no longer split between the two.
But I appreciate many others would object to the above on various grounds.
On the Continent the Greens have done well by supplanting the Socialists.
I would not want to merge the parties, but an electoral pact sounds good to me.
> @Casino_Royale said: > > @Jonathan said: > > How many candidates would take the Tory leadership election beyond 31 Oct? > > I'm hoping William Hague throws his hat into the ring.
I remember that Team Hague cap, it should do well in a weak field.
Someone, possibly HYUFD, mentioned Mark Harper a couple of threads ago and I genuinely thought it must be an autocorrect error for someone more plausible than the former chief whip.
Just within my circle, there is a regular LD voter who would never countenance voting Green - she agrees with much of the green agenda but cannot stand some of their more extreme positions.
If you're in OXWAB (Just a guess based on your user name), then the Greens may not be running there at all under this proposal. In fact they didn't in 2017 and that likely helped Moran gain the seat. She'll probably get 35,000 votes there even if the Greens do run there this time. The deal I've proposed would benefit the Lib Dems far more than the Greens to be honest, rightly so given they're the bigger party and yes there are big big differences between them particularly at membership level I suspect.
But unless your friend wouldn't vote Lib Dem because the Greens are standing aside for them in certain constituencies (Which was also the case in 2017 btw) Then I don't see the issue.
> @IanB2 said: > > @Gallowgate said: > > The polling booth in UK politics is sacrosanct, putting your cross in any box is on your conscious and will never be known. Alistair Campbell didn't just vote LibDems, he was on TV advising Labour Party members to vote LibDem. AC knows the rules, hell, he applied them often enough on any one who disagreed with Blair. He is also involved with the coup plotters up to his neck. There are several others, Hodge, Watson included whose coats are on very shooglie hooks. > > > > Rattled. > > And wrong, since AC was careful enough to keep under wraps who he was voting for (although he did say it wasn’t Labour) until polls had closed. So the OP’s “advising” is not correct. >
Indeed. His partner said he agonised, and only made his mind up at the very last minute. So he didn't have the time to advise anyone. Unlike Heseltine. Who has only been suspended.
Boris is highly likely to be acquitted (on the grounds that it's a debatable point, if nothing else). The unintended consequence will be that in any second referendum Leave will be able to claim (and I use that word advisedly) that their arguments have been vindicated by the courts, whereas 'we all know that the warnings about Brexit Armageddon were false'.
In effect the court case could end up legitimising Leave's cause.
Fun stuff, although it only makes agreement even harder. Corbyn aside Labour MPs will want to remain as hard as they can to get LDs back, and Tory MPs will want to Brexit as hard as they can to get BXPs back.
Comments
> rcs1000
>
>
>
> - “Electoral Calculus has the LDs losing seats in Scotland, on a more than three fold increase in vote share.”
>
>
>
> Yes, I’ve noticed this. At a certain point when both the SNP and the SLDs are doing well, it tips over heavily in the SNP’s favour.
>
>
>
> This is due to Baxter’s complex model. The SLD rise would be spread around a lot of constituencies, primarily SCon held or SCon strong second place. This doesn’t really get the SLDs anywhere at all, but it allows the SNP to pretty much wipe out the Tories. Again.
>
> The SNP look in great shape to me, the Brexit Party almost perfectly cleaves the Ruth Davidson party into two whilst the Lib Dem surge hits the hardcore remainers of rump Scottish Labour.
... and in Edinburgh and Glasgow the Green surge helps to really hammer the Labour vote. Yes, the Greens also attract a few SNP voters, but this is not a problem when you are at about 40% in a five-way FPTP system. But it totally cripples Labour when they are struggling to stay in the teens. Down there, every single vote suddenly becomes very precious, and even their own members are voting Green, let alone less-dedicated voters.
> > @Byronic said:
> >
> > I do wonder what the EU would do if threatened with No Deal. They blinked last time. Would they blink again? My guess is Britain will fold first, and call a new vote.
> >
> -------
>
> Why do you keep saying they blinked? It's nonsense to characterise giving an extension as blinking. They haven't given an inch on the substance, and in fact have locked in the WA in its current form.<
++++
Of course the EU blinked. They were adamant there would be no extension unless there was a "major change in circumstances" - i.e. a new vote, election, etc.
Instead we just said "er, can we have more time" and they said "er, yes"
People like you who adore the EU and think it can't do anything wrong, and is eternally brilliant and strong and clever and admirable, are as mad as the Brexiteers who think the EU is eternally evil, stupid, dangerous and the EUSSR etc etc
The extremes on both sides are bonkers. As ever.
> > @rcs1000 said:
>
> > > @HYUFD said:
>
> > > > @Byronic said:
>
> > > > Why aren't you talking about this?
>
> > > >
>
> > > > https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1134151393764360192
>
>
>
> > >
>
> > > Electoral Calculus says those figures make the Labour Party the largest party under FPTP on 202, Brexit Party second on 139, Tories third on 117, LDs up but only to 115, then SNP on 55
>
> > >
>
> > > https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=19&LAB=19&LIB=22&UKIP=1.9&Green=1.7&ChUK=0.0&Brexit=24&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged®orseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
>
> >
>
> > So Electoral Calculus has the LDs losing seats in Scotland, on a more than three fold increase in vote share.
>
> >
>
> > Well, it's a view*.
>
> >
>
> > * Obviously, in the real world, actual outcomes would vary enormously.
>
>
>
> I still feel reasonably convinced that on that sort of 4-way even(-ish) split of a poll at a national level all the current models will be completely broken and fail to give anything like the right result. I'm sure smarter people than me have already thought about this...but I still think that.
>
> I get the following:
>
> jpg
If Cons are on 19%, that represents a remarkable rise in a week!
> Labour's internal polling in Peterborough must be dire.
>
> I doubt it, if it were shadow cabinet would not be campaigning there.
For what it's worth, I've not had a request to go and help, which I'd expect if things were dire. But I've no inside info and would struggle to find Peterborough on the map. The YouGov report looks plausible enough for a post-Euros bounce, but whether that will translate into a by-election win, who knows?
And if No Deal, possibly followed by Corbyn, crashes the economy, there will be plenty of businesses relocating within the EU.
I fear we are heading back to Sick Man of Europe territory again. Those who will likely suffer most will be precisely those groups who voted for Brexit in the hope/belief that it would make their lives better. I would not count on their continuing support if I were the party on whose watch that happened.
> Shadsy’s Lab minority at 5/1 looks like fair, if not generous, pricing.<
++++
Yes, those are good odds.
> Here is one result from that poll put into electoral calculus I won't be betting on come the next GE !
>
> Brighton Pavilion East Sussex Brexit gain from Green : Caroline Lucas
That's rather curious. Presumably they somehow feed in the trends from surrounding areas as part of the calculation: if TBP are monstering the adjoining Sussex rural/coastal seats (which I imagine they are) then then that **must** have an impact there too.
> It is true the EU technically blinked last time, and gave us more time even though we had nothing even approaching a plan or a change in circumstances, and we have spent the time since pissing about. I wouldn't say it is guaranteed they would blink and let us extend without a plan again, but at some point the patience seems like it would have to run out - being in this limbo is not doing us or them any good, Macron was right to push for a shorter endpoint. Sadly we'll have several more months of the party's pissing about, waiting for the true crunch period post summer before they even attempt to close things down again.<
++++
A good summary. One of the few encouraging things here is that the Tory party (for all its terrible and plentiful flaws) does seem to comprehend the urgency. e.g. there was much talk of a leadership contest stretching over the summer, with a final vote in September.
Instead they have drastically truncated it, and we will have a new PM by July. Quick work.
We do not have the luxury of a summer sitting by the pool. While the EU is sipping their pina coladas the new PM has to come up with SOMETHING.
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > rcs1000
> >
> >
> >
> > - “Electoral Calculus has the LDs losing seats in Scotland, on a more than three fold increase in vote share.”
> >
> >
> >
> > Yes, I’ve noticed this. At a certain point when both the SNP and the SLDs are doing well, it tips over heavily in the SNP’s favour.
> >
> >
> >
> > This is due to Baxter’s complex model. The SLD rise would be spread around a lot of constituencies, primarily SCon held or SCon strong second place. This doesn’t really get the SLDs anywhere at all, but it allows the SNP to pretty much wipe out the Tories. Again.
> >
> > The SNP look in great shape to me, the Brexit Party almost perfectly cleaves the Ruth Davidson party into two whilst the Lib Dem surge hits the hardcore remainers of rump Scottish Labour.
>
> ... and in Edinburgh and Glasgow the Green surge helps to really hammer the Labour vote. Yes, the Greens also attract a few SNP voters, but this is not a problem when you are at about 40% in a five-way FPTP system. But it totally cripples Labour when they are struggling to stay in the teens. Down there, every single vote suddenly becomes very precious, and even their own members are voting Green, let alone less-dedicated voters.
One problem with Swinson as Leader is the risk of an SNP surge leaving the LDs leaderless post GE. A risk with most LDs of course, but there needs to be a good deputy leader.
On that note, good to see Jo and Rory have a sense of humour:
https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1134173890018783232?s=19
> The new Con leader will never countenance another referendum
>
>
>
> For Con the only way they will ever recover is to deliver Brexit. So it will be delivered. One way or another.
>
> I would have agreed with you until about half an hour ago. I am beginning to wonder if it is actually true though. Logically you deliver Brexit and the reason for being for the Brexit Party goes away. But does it actually go away? Imagine we have just left. Something will be going wrong somewhere. Up pops Farage - "you need a Brexit Party to make Brexit work".
>
>
> Any sort of Brexit being delivered spikes Farage's guns, sure some will care but BXP returns to a sub 10% party I think.<
+++++
Agreed. Farage and the BXP would survive Brexit (like cockroaches and a nuclear winter) but they would be much diminished. The fires of outrage would die down quite quickly, without the fuel of Brexit Denied. People would get on with their lives.
In that situation I expect Farage himself would get bored, and go off and do something else. TV presenter, maybe.
Delivering Brexit gets you to level two
If I was the next Lib Dem leader (I left because I thought they should pass the WA) then I'd make the Greens a generous offer of not contesting the following :.
i) Brighton Pavilion (Obvious but a nice gesture for Lucas)
ii) Bristol West (Yes it is a big Lib Dem chance but a seat the greens really can win. Ignore the mahoossive temporary Labour majority there, this seat has all the hallmarks of a Glasgow North West about it)
iii) Norwich South
iv) Sheffield Central
v) Isle of Wight.
In return for not standing in ~ 100 of the Lib Dem top targets.
Sure it is lopsided, but Lucas knows precisely how FPTP works and might just take it or something like it.
> I heard Lucas talking about a potential deal with the Lib Dems. Any such deal would crystallise the remain choice and be dire news for Labour.
>
> If I was the next Lib Dem leader (I left because I thought they should pass the WA) then I'd make the Greens a generous offer of not contesting the following :.
>
> i) Brighton Pavilion (Obvious but a nice gesture for Lucas)
> ii) Bristol West (Yes it is a big Lib Dem chance but a seat the greens really can win. Ignore the mahoossive temporary Labour majority there, this seat has all the hallmarks of a Glasgow North West about it)
> iii) Norwich South
> iv) Sheffield Central
> v) Isle of Wight.
>
> In return for not standing in ~ 100 of the Lib Dem top targets.
>
> Sure it is lopsided, but Lucas knows precisely how FPTP works and might just take it or something like it.
I'd add some agreement on adopted an eye-catching climate change policy, but basically the same. Makes it easier to maybe merge/absorb the whole party if it goes well.
> The new Con leader will never countenance another referendum
>
> For Con the only way they will ever recover is to deliver Brexit. So it will be delivered. One way or another.
>
> You really think delivering Brexit will be the end of it? Oh sweet summer child.
>
> Think of it like a computer game
>
> Delivering Brexit gets you to level two
One of those old Spectrum or C64 games where the tape takes fucking ages to load and then it crashes at the final point?
> https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1134198029857304577
Is he untainted because no-one has a clue who he is? Honestly, I follow politics pretty closely and my first reaction was that this was about Canadian politics (I was thinking of Steve Harper).
> @Pulpstar Lucas is not leader of the Greens is she? I doubt she has the power to agree to that.
She's the joint leader with Jonathan Bartley.
EDIT: My mistake, it's Sian Berry and Bartley.
> The EU is going to expel us. If the Tories behave like bloody fools and elect a dimwit with no grasp of reality - of which there are plenty on offer - as PM, moreover a dimwit with no plan, why should they extend. I suspect they are better prepared for no deal than Britain and have other concerns to be dealing with.
They should extend because No Deal is the worst of the possible ultimate outcomes (Revoke, Deal and Gimp Remain are all better) for their citizens who live in the UK, and their businesses that trade with the UK. It may ultimately end up happening anyway, but that's no reason to actively *cause* it to happen when it might still be avoidable. If Brexit is in stasis and there are no negotiations then it's not even sucking up anybody's time, aside from say annual meetings to grant further extensions.
However I think the difficulty is if the person the British choose is not only a dimwit with no plan, but a dimwit who will actively damage ongoing decision-making to get approving domestic press coverage. This is something you couldn't really see TMay doing but some of the others might.
> I heard Lucas talking about a potential deal with the Lib Dems. Any such deal would crystallise the remain choice and be dire news for Labour.
>
> If I was the next Lib Dem leader (I left because I thought they should pass the WA) then I'd make the Greens a generous offer of not contesting the following :.
>
> i) Brighton Pavilion (Obvious but a nice gesture for Lucas)
> ii) Bristol West (Yes it is a big Lib Dem chance but a seat the greens really can win. Ignore the mahoossive temporary Labour majority there, this seat has all the hallmarks of a Glasgow North West about it)
> iii) Norwich South
> iv) Sheffield Central
> v) Isle of Wight.
>
> In return for not standing in ~ 100 of the Lib Dem top targets.
>
> Sure it is lopsided, but Lucas knows precisely how FPTP works and might just take it or something like it.
I think Caroline Lucas should stand for the LD leadership
Put like that is sounds extremely improbable, but the other options seem even more unlikely.
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > I heard Lucas talking about a potential deal with the Lib Dems. Any such deal would crystallise the remain choice and be dire news for Labour.
> >
> > If I was the next Lib Dem leader (I left because I thought they should pass the WA) then I'd make the Greens a generous offer of not contesting the following :.
> >
> > i) Brighton Pavilion (Obvious but a nice gesture for Lucas)
> > ii) Bristol West (Yes it is a big Lib Dem chance but a seat the greens really can win. Ignore the mahoossive temporary Labour majority there, this seat has all the hallmarks of a Glasgow North West about it)
> > iii) Norwich South
> > iv) Sheffield Central
> > v) Isle of Wight.
> >
> > In return for not standing in ~ 100 of the Lib Dem top targets.
> >
> > Sure it is lopsided, but Lucas knows precisely how FPTP works and might just take it or something like it.
>
> I'd add some agreement on adopted an eye-catching climate change policy, but basically the same. Makes it easier to maybe merge/absorb the whole party if it goes well.
But the Lib Dems and Greens have some major differences. Can't see them merging. Although a short term pact is feasible.
> In return for not standing in ~ 100 of the Lib Dem top targets.
Show some ambition, make it 200.
> Labour has pulled its candidate from Peterborough by-election hustings tonight
They were going to send a Russian replacement, but they have apparently left the country.....
>
> I think Caroline Lucas should stand for the LD leadership
-------
She'd be a better candidate than Swinson. Given that it increasingly looks like the LD leader needs to be a PM-in-waiting, they might be better off sticking with Vince for the time being.
> They're just making these Tory candidates up now. I half expect the next one to be Amanda Hugankiss.
If they can get Corporal Punishment to stand, he'd be very popular with the membership.....
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1134202905647599621
> > @brokenwheel said:
> > Labour's internal polling in Peterborough must be dire.
> >
> > I doubt it, if it were shadow cabinet would not be campaigning there.
>
> For what it's worth, I've not had a request to go and help, which I'd expect if things were dire. But I've no inside info and would struggle to find Peterborough on the map. The YouGov report looks plausible enough for a post-Euros bounce, but whether that will translate into a by-election win, who knows?
FWIW I think we may be approaching a tipping point at which many remainers will abandon Labour. Morale amongst party members I have spoken to this week is lower than I have ever known, many people are on the verge of giving up and some have already left. This could be avoided if Corbyn made a clear unequivocal commitment to a remain and reform policy but no one thinks he is going to do this and he has equivocated for so long that many would not believe he was genuine if he did make such a commitment. And we have the shame of the EHRC review. It's a very dark time for Labour, we are in almost as bad a position as the Tories. The Tory crisis is existential, ours need not be but unless the leadership takes its collective head out of the sand we will soon follow them down the political pan.
> > @Quincel said:
> > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > I heard Lucas talking about a potential deal with the Lib Dems. Any such deal would crystallise the remain choice and be dire news for Labour.
> > >
> > > If I was the next Lib Dem leader (I left because I thought they should pass the WA) then I'd make the Greens a generous offer of not contesting the following :.
> > >
> > > i) Brighton Pavilion (Obvious but a nice gesture for Lucas)
> > > ii) Bristol West (Yes it is a big Lib Dem chance but a seat the greens really can win. Ignore the mahoossive temporary Labour majority there, this seat has all the hallmarks of a Glasgow North West about it)
> > > iii) Norwich South
> > > iv) Sheffield Central
> > > v) Isle of Wight.
> > >
> > > In return for not standing in ~ 100 of the Lib Dem top targets.
> > >
> > > Sure it is lopsided, but Lucas knows precisely how FPTP works and might just take it or something like it.
> >
> > I'd add some agreement on adopted an eye-catching climate change policy, but basically the same. Makes it easier to maybe merge/absorb the whole party if it goes well.
>
> But the Lib Dems and Greens have some major differences. Can't see them merging. Although a short term pact is feasible.
I don't see the LDs and Greens being natural bedfellows. In many ways both are small parties made up of 2 distinct wings. Only part of each party will be comfortable with working with the other party. And uneasy partnerships like that will be very tetchy.
Just within my circle, there is a regular LD voter who would never countenance voting Green - she agrees with much of the green agenda but cannot stand some of their more extreme positions.
> I like this guy
>
> https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1134202905647599621
A lot of people think the public are thick, they are just too afraid to say it. A lot more imply they think the public are thick every time they say the people were fooled, or did not know what things meant, even though many many people told them,or countered Leave comments at the time. So it would be nice for someone to be honest that is what they think.
> > @solarflare said:
> > They're just making these Tory candidates up now. I half expect the next one to be Amanda Hugankiss.
>
> If they can get Corporal Punishment to stand, he'd be very popular with the membership.....
Miles better than Private Browsing, that's for sure.
> > @brokenwheel said:
> > Labour's internal polling in Peterborough must be dire.
> >
> > I doubt it, if it were shadow cabinet would not be campaigning there.
>
> For what it's worth, I've not had a request to go and help, which I'd expect if things were dire.
Hate to break it to you Nick, but they've decided things are so bad for Labour NOT EVEN YOU can save them......
> > @dixiedean said:
> > > @Quincel said:
> > > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > I heard Lucas talking about a potential deal with the Lib Dems. Any such deal would crystallise the remain choice and be dire news for Labour.
> > > >
> > > > If I was the next Lib Dem leader (I left because I thought they should pass the WA) then I'd make the Greens a generous offer of not contesting the following :.
> > > >
> > > > i) Brighton Pavilion (Obvious but a nice gesture for Lucas)
> > > > ii) Bristol West (Yes it is a big Lib Dem chance but a seat the greens really can win. Ignore the mahoossive temporary Labour majority there, this seat has all the hallmarks of a Glasgow North West about it)
> > > > iii) Norwich South
> > > > iv) Sheffield Central
> > > > v) Isle of Wight.
> > > >
> > > > In return for not standing in ~ 100 of the Lib Dem top targets.
> > > >
> > > > Sure it is lopsided, but Lucas knows precisely how FPTP works and might just take it or something like it.
> > >
> > > I'd add some agreement on adopted an eye-catching climate change policy, but basically the same. Makes it easier to maybe merge/absorb the whole party if it goes well.
> >
> > But the Lib Dems and Greens have some major differences. Can't see them merging. Although a short term pact is feasible.
>
> I don't see the LDs and Greens being natural bedfellows. In many ways both are small parties made up of 2 distinct wings. Only part of each party will be comfortable with working with the other party. And uneasy partnerships like that will be very tetchy.
>
> Just within my circle, there is a regular LD voter who would never countenance voting Green - she agrees with much of the green agenda but cannot stand some of their more extreme positions.
I'm showing my bias here, but this is why I think the LDs absorbing the Greens could be beneficial for both. Caroline Lucas becomes deputy leader and the party adopts a very eye-catching climate change policy (net 0 emissions by 2030, maybe) and the party adopts generally more social democrat economic policy (i.e. the Lib Dems stop being quite centrist on economic policy). But otherwise the LD culture remains. What you end with is the Greens flagship issue being quite effectively mainstreamed while the socially liberal voters who back both parties are no longer split between the two.
But I appreciate many others would object to the above on various grounds.
> The polling booth in UK politics is sacrosanct, putting your cross in any box is on your conscious and will never be known. Alistair Campbell didn't just vote LibDems, he was on TV advising Labour Party members to vote LibDem. AC knows the rules, hell, he applied them often enough on any one who disagreed with Blair. He is also involved with the coup plotters up to his neck. There are several others, Hodge, Watson included whose coats are on very shooglie hooks.
Yippee Ki-yay.
> How many candidates would take the Tory leadership election beyond 31 Oct?
I said the other day it'd start getting silly when they got to 23. Half-way there!
When did Campbell tell people to vote Lib Dem? Can you provide evidence?
He only announced he had voted Lib Dem after the polls had closed.
> The polling booth in UK politics is sacrosanct, putting your cross in any box is on your conscious and will never be known. Alistair Campbell didn't just vote LibDems, he was on TV advising Labour Party members to vote LibDem. AC knows the rules, hell, he applied them often enough on any one who disagreed with Blair. He is also involved with the coup plotters up to his neck. There are several others, Hodge, Watson included whose coats are on very shooglie hooks.
Thanks John. That post made my day.
> https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1134201116256870400
Poor odds, free money for Ladbrokes.
> How many candidates would take the Tory leadership election beyond 31 Oct?
I'm hoping William Hague throws his hat into the ring.
> > @oxfordsimon said:
> > > @dixiedean said:
> > > > @Quincel said:
> > > > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > > I heard Lucas talking about a potential deal with the Lib Dems. Any such deal would crystallise the remain choice and be dire news for Labour.
> > > > >
> > > > > If I was the next Lib Dem leader (I left because I thought they should pass the WA) then I'd make the Greens a generous offer of not contesting the following :.
> > > > >
> > > > > i) Brighton Pavilion (Obvious but a nice gesture for Lucas)
> > > > > ii) Bristol West (Yes it is a big Lib Dem chance but a seat the greens really can win. Ignore the mahoossive temporary Labour majority there, this seat has all the hallmarks of a Glasgow North West about it)
> > > > > iii) Norwich South
> > > > > iv) Sheffield Central
> > > > > v) Isle of Wight.
> > > > >
> > > > > In return for not standing in ~ 100 of the Lib Dem top targets.
> > > > >
> > > > > Sure it is lopsided, but Lucas knows precisely how FPTP works and might just take it or something like it.
> > > >
> > > > I'd add some agreement on adopted an eye-catching climate change policy, but basically the same. Makes it easier to maybe merge/absorb the whole party if it goes well.
> > >
> > > But the Lib Dems and Greens have some major differences. Can't see them merging. Although a short term pact is feasible.
> >
> > I don't see the LDs and Greens being natural bedfellows. In many ways both are small parties made up of 2 distinct wings. Only part of each party will be comfortable with working with the other party. And uneasy partnerships like that will be very tetchy.
> >
> > Just within my circle, there is a regular LD voter who would never countenance voting Green - she agrees with much of the green agenda but cannot stand some of their more extreme positions.
>
> I'm showing my bias here, but this is why I think the LDs absorbing the Greens could be beneficial for both. Caroline Lucas becomes deputy leader and the party adopts a very eye-catching climate change policy (net 0 emissions by 2030, maybe) and the party adopts generally more social democrat economic policy (i.e. the Lib Dems stop being quite centrist on economic policy). But otherwise the LD culture remains. What you end with is the Greens flagship issue being quite effectively mainstreamed while the socially liberal voters who back both parties are no longer split between the two.
>
> But I appreciate many others would object to the above on various grounds.
I fear you'd have a New Green Party again lickety split. There is a substantial wing of the Greens who want a more radical platform. And if Lucas joined the LDs you wouldn't need to look far for a leader-in- waiting. Which in itself would be de-stabilising.
Anyways. Why merge when both are on the rise?
> The polling booth in UK politics is sacrosanct, putting your cross in any box is on your conscious and will never be known. Alistair Campbell didn't just vote LibDems, he was on TV advising Labour Party members to vote LibDem. AC knows the rules, hell, he applied them often enough on any one who disagreed with Blair. He is also involved with the coup plotters up to his neck. There are several others, Hodge, Watson included whose coats are on very shooglie hooks.
Campbell did nor advise anyone to vote lib dem. He announced his vote after the polls had closed.
I still will not watch it but it is novel
> The polling booth in UK politics is sacrosanct, putting your cross in any box is on your conscious and will never be known. Alistair Campbell didn't just vote LibDems, he was on TV advising Labour Party members to vote LibDem. AC knows the rules, hell, he applied them often enough on any one who disagreed with Blair. He is also involved with the coup plotters up to his neck. There are several others, Hodge, Watson included whose coats are on very shooglie hooks.
>
> Rattled.
And wrong, since AC was careful enough to keep under wraps who he was voting for (although he did say it wasn’t Labour) until polls had closed. So the OP’s “advising” is not correct.
I would not want to merge the parties, but an electoral pact sounds good to me.
> > @Jonathan said:
> > How many candidates would take the Tory leadership election beyond 31 Oct?
>
> I'm hoping William Hague throws his hat into the ring.
I remember that Team Hague cap, it should do well in a weak field.
> I like this guy
>
> https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1134202905647599621
I don't like the way the Brexity media tries to insert itself into judicial proceedings. They really aren't that far from the Tommy Robinson gutter.
The deal I've proposed would benefit the Lib Dems far more than the Greens to be honest, rightly so given they're the bigger party and yes there are big big differences between them particularly at membership level I suspect.
But unless your friend wouldn't vote Lib Dem because the Greens are standing aside for them in certain constituencies (Which was also the case in 2017 btw) Then I don't see the issue.
> > @Gallowgate said:
> > The polling booth in UK politics is sacrosanct, putting your cross in any box is on your conscious and will never be known. Alistair Campbell didn't just vote LibDems, he was on TV advising Labour Party members to vote LibDem. AC knows the rules, hell, he applied them often enough on any one who disagreed with Blair. He is also involved with the coup plotters up to his neck. There are several others, Hodge, Watson included whose coats are on very shooglie hooks.
> >
> > Rattled.
>
> And wrong, since AC was careful enough to keep under wraps who he was voting for (although he did say it wasn’t Labour) until polls had closed. So the OP’s “advising” is not correct.
>
Indeed. His partner said he agonised, and only made his mind up at the very last minute. So he didn't have the time to advise anyone.
Unlike Heseltine. Who has only been suspended.
> I like this guy
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1134202905647599621
>
>
>
> I see Tom Slater was involved with entrapping the poor man. The Revolutionary Communist Party really are everywhere you turn nowadays.
-------------------------
I suspect this will all end in tears.
Boris is highly likely to be acquitted (on the grounds that it's a debatable point, if nothing else). The unintended consequence will be that in any second referendum Leave will be able to claim (and I use that word advisedly) that their arguments have been vindicated by the courts, whereas 'we all know that the warnings about Brexit Armageddon were false'.
In effect the court case could end up legitimising Leave's cause.
> https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1134207303404720137
Confirmed YouGov figures of LDs 24%, Brexit Party 22%, Tories and Labour 19% and Greens 8%.
With full poll figures now available they give Labour 202 seats, Brexit Party 140, LDs 120, Tories 110 and SNP 55 and Greens 1
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=19&LAB=19&LIB=24&UKIP=1.9&Green=8&ChUK=0.0&Brexit=22&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
> Reports that Rory is going to sit with the audience in QuestionTime
>
> I still will not watch it but it is novel
"The rather gaunt, elfin man in the third row. Yes, you."
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134207549249654786<;
+++++
I love the symmetry of the damage done to LAB and CON
> Reports that Rory is going to sit with the audience in QuestionTime
>
> I still will not watch it but it is novel
I'm starting to like him but he needs to drop the Jesus stuff.
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134207549249654786
Corbyn as PM is dead.