I get the impression even the media is now bored of Brexit, and desperate to talk about anything else for a while. We may get more bread and butter issues like education and health in the headlines over the next few months, which unfortunately is probably going to benefit Labour.
I think the boredom is real, and reaches into Parliament. People who think any decision is coming soon are deluding themselves. TM has a road leading to October and she is guaranteed to kick the can down it, with acquiescence from bored and frustrated MPs.
It's noticeable that the Tory leadership candidates aren't talking about Brexit either.
Which means we’ll be kicked out in October by the French.
With Tusk gone and May still there boring the pants off everyone who on the EU side would want to extend the agony to allow us to faff around some more?
It is not agony for the EU, they are avoiding no deal and possible economic contagion, getting their contributions, the UK has a reduced influence and is slowly leaking good companies and jobs to relocate in the EU. I would be amazed if the EU did anything pro-active to change the current arrangements.
If Labour include a second vote for the EU elections then they have a good chance of coming out on top . If they don’t then the Brexit Party will likely win .
Watching the inability of the Revoke parties to understand how the election works is proving fun
Unless this is fixed I suspect Labour are going to get a lot of votes as others explain why the split vote makes voting for them completely pointless.
It's only pointless if you really, really care about who gets elected, which hardly anyone does at the EP elections.
The Euro-elections are an excellent opportunity to let off steam, protest and/or register positive support for a party, fairly safe in the knowledge that it'll have next-to-no impact on the running of their lives. It's like a national by-election.
In any case, no vote is ever pointless (which is why I hate the 'wasted vote' argument, which is an antidemocratic argument). Whether or not a vote goes towards electing someone, it still gives that party or individual an endorsement, which matters in a national context, and also presents a threat to other parties who may respond to it.
The Greens ought to know that as well as anyone (but probably don't because they're too up themselves): their performance in 1989 was a significant prompt to the government to take the environment, ozone and climate change seriously.
If Labour include a second vote for the EU elections then they have a good chance of coming out on top . If they don’t then the Brexit Party will likely win .
Watching the inability of the Revoke parties to understand how the election works is proving fun
Unless this is fixed I suspect Labour are going to get a lot of votes as others explain why the split vote makes voting for them completely pointless.
It's only pointless if you really, really care about who gets elected, which hardly anyone does at the EP elections.
The Euro-elections are an excellent opportunity to let off steam, protest and/or register positive support for a party, fairly safe in the knowledge that it'll have next-to-no impact on the running of their lives. It's like a national by-election.
In any case, no vote is ever pointless (which is why I hate the 'wasted vote' argument, which is an antidemocratic argument). Whether or not a vote goes towards electing someone, it still gives that party or individual an endorsement, which matters in a national context, and also presents a threat to other parties who may respond to it.
The Greens ought to know that as well as anyone (but probably don't because they're too up themselves): their performance in 1989 was a significant prompt to the government to take the environment, ozone and climate change seriously.
It's not so much the numbers of seats that they should be worried about: it's that they're missing a chance to "win" the election. As it is, Farage will probably "win". That will be an oversimplistic assessment of a nuanced result, but it's what people will remember.
We should be treating these ecofascists the same way as any other group that seeks to impose its policy agenda by force. Media companies should not be inviting them onto to prime-time shows to explain their case, any more than they would give Yaxley-Lennon a nice, soft, studio interview.
No problems up here. It's only posh tossers competing in the virtue-signalling Olympics in London. As long as they stay in London, they can do what they want. But have they never heard of the phrase … never sh*t on your own doorstep?
Although they are threatening to spread it to Brighton, Cambridge and other strongholds where there's nests of them.
We should be treating these ecofascists the same way as any other group that seeks to impose its policy agenda by force. Media companies should not be inviting them onto to prime-time shows to explain their case, any more than they would give Yaxley-Lennon a nice, soft, studio interview.
We should be treating these ecofascists the same way as any other group that seeks to impose its policy agenda by force. Media companies should not be inviting them onto to prime-time shows to explain their case, any more than they would give Yaxley-Lennon a nice, soft, studio interview.
We should be treating these ecofascists the same way as any other group that seeks to impose its policy agenda by force. Media companies should not be inviting them onto to prime-time shows to explain their case, any more than they would give Yaxley-Lennon a nice, soft, studio interview.
Govt. will be scared it will alienate Da Yoof.....
We should be treating these ecofascists the same way as any other group that seeks to impose its policy agenda by force. Media companies should not be inviting them onto to prime-time shows to explain their case, any more than they would give Yaxley-Lennon a nice, soft, studio interview.
We should be treating these ecofascists the same way as any other group that seeks to impose its policy agenda by force. Media companies should not be inviting them onto to prime-time shows to explain their case, any more than they would give Yaxley-Lennon a nice, soft, studio interview.
To be fair, Adam Boulton gave him a pretty good savaging. youtu.be/dDEnxNQTZrg
I don't know, by the standards of old Fat head, where we have all heard him say far worse things to other members of the Sky News team...
If Labour include a second vote for the EU elections then they have a good chance of coming out on top . If they don’t then the Brexit Party will likely win .
Watching the inability of the Revoke parties to understand how the election works is proving fun
Unless this is fixed I suspect Labour are going to get a lot of votes as others explain why the split vote makes voting for them completely pointless.
It's only pointless if you really, really care about who gets elected, which hardly anyone does at the EP elections.
The Euro-elections are an excellent opportunity to let off steam, protest and/or register positive support for a party, fairly safe in the knowledge that it'll have next-to-no impact on the running of their lives. It's like a national by-election.
In any case, no vote is ever pointless (which is why I hate the 'wasted vote' argument, which is an antidemocratic argument). Whether or not a vote goes towards electing someone, it still gives that party or individual an endorsement, which matters in a national context, and also presents a threat to other parties who may respond to it.
The Greens ought to know that as well as anyone (but probably don't because they're too up themselves): their performance in 1989 was a significant prompt to the government to take the environment, ozone and climate change seriously.
It's not so much the numbers of seats that they should be worried about: it's that they're missing a chance to "win" the election. As it is, Farage will probably "win". That will be an oversimplistic assessment of a nuanced result, but it's what people will remember.
Teaming up would create extra votes by creating a clear message of why to vote (remain), giving voters a chance to back the winner and deny Farage (both useful in getting the vote out) and show that the centre parties can work together (necessary for them to have much influence in what actually happens).
If Labour include a second vote for the EU elections then they have a good chance of coming out on top . If they don’t then the Brexit Party will likely win .
Watching the inability of the Revoke parties to understand how the election works is proving fun
Unless this is fixed I suspect Labour are going to get a lot of votes as others explain why the split vote makes voting for them completely pointless.
It's only pointless if you really, really care about who gets elected, which hardly anyone does at the EP elections.
The Euro-elections are an excellent opportunity to let off steam, protest and/or register positive support for a party, fairly safe in the knowledge that it'll have next-to-no impact on the running of their lives. It's like a national by-election.
In any case, no vote is ever pointless (which is why I hate the 'wasted vote' argument, which is an antidemocratic argument). Whether or not a vote goes towards electing someone, it still gives that party or individual an endorsement, which matters in a national context, and also presents a threat to other parties who may respond to it.
The Greens ought to know that as well as anyone (but probably don't because they're too up themselves): their performance in 1989 was a significant prompt to the government to take the environment, ozone and climate change seriously.
It's not so much the numbers of seats that they should be worried about: it's that they're missing a chance to "win" the election. As it is, Farage will probably "win". That will be an oversimplistic assessment of a nuanced result, but it's what people will remember.
Teaming up would create extra votes by creating a clear message of why to vote (remain), giving voters a chance to back the winner and deny Farage (both useful in getting the vote out) and show that the centre parties can work together (necessary for them to have much influence in what actually happens).
Yes, but it wouldn't help Chuka beat the Lib Dems, would it?
What is it with his uppper-middle class double barrelled surname twats who always seem to be behind this.
This posh twat who walked off Sky News earlier after Adam Boulton called him names? ttps://youtube.com/watch?v=dDEnxNQTZrg Edit: Tissue Price beat me to the link.
I think their biggest problem is what do they stand for? Defence? Not really, they believe in trident but that's about it Law and order? Clearly not given police cuts Low tax? Vat etc suggests this isn't top of the list anymore Austerity? Is already on its way out meaning..... Fiscal probity? We dont run anywhere near a surplus so no Social conservatism? No, they are desperate to appear woke on all matters They are basically not labour and support crapping on those with disability and have a sizable 'patrician' caucus who feel they werd born to rule
Quite.
If you think the Tories problems begin and end with Brexit then you have another thing coming.
Every time they open their mouths on any other issue you just feel like facepalming.
We should be treating these ecofascists the same way as any other group that seeks to impose its policy agenda by force. Media companies should not be inviting them onto to prime-time shows to explain their case, any more than they would give Yaxley-Lennon a nice, soft, studio interview.
If Labour include a second vote for the EU elections then they have a good chance of coming out on top . If they don’t then the Brexit Party will likely win .
Watching the inability of the Revoke parties to understand how the election works is proving fun
Unless this is fixed I suspect Labour are going to get a lot of votes as others explain why the split vote makes voting for them completely pointless.
This sort of dis-information really isn't acceptable.
The European Elections work on a party list system. Voting for your preferred choice is NOT a wasted vote and your patronising assessment of Revoke parties is unacceptable.
Take a region like the South-West. The party list system last time elected a Green MEP, something unthinkable on FPTP.
Depressing though it is, all roads lead to a Corbyn government:
- If Brexit doesn't get delivered, the Conservative Party will be in such a bad state and so split that it will be in no position to fight an election in the next three years.
- If Brexit does happen, through a chaotic no-deal crash out, it will be even worse: all the above applies and in addition the disruption to the economy and to people's lives will be blamed on the party for a decade.
McDonnell and Milne of course realise this, which is why the talks with Labour will collapse.
Is there a way out? Yes there is, sort-of. It may not be possible for the Conservatives to avoid losing the next election, but it may be possible to choose when and how to lose it. And the best choice, or rather the least bad of several very bad choices, looks to me to lose an election before Brexit happens, thus landing Corbyn with the problem. That would at least give the opportunity for a fairly rapid regrouping in the hope of returning to power after one short and chaotic hard-left term, hopefully mitigated by a hung parliament.
Even that route, though, cannot work unless the Conservative Party stops banging on about Europe. If an early general election led to a referendum and/or revocation of Article 50, the big risk would be that the Conservative Party would turn into a single-issue 'rerun Brexit' party. That would be the end of it, and it would take years for an alternative centre-right party to emerge.
I hope I haven't depressed my centre-right friends here too much with this gloomy prognosis!
Depressing though it is, all roads lead to a Corbyn government:
- If Brexit doesn't get delivered, the Conservative Party will be in such a bad state and so split that it will be in no position to fight an election in the next three years.
- If Brexit does happen, through a chaotic no-deal crash out, it will be even worse: all the above applies and in addition the disruption to the economy and to people's lives will be blamed on the party for a decade.
McDonnell and Milne of course realise this, which is why the talks with Labour will collapse.
Is there a way out? Yes there is, sort-of. It may not be possible for the Conservatives to avoid losing the next election, but it may be possible to choose when and how to lose it. And the best choice, or rather the least bad of several very bad choices, looks to me to lose an election before Brexit happens, thus landing Corbyn with the problem. That would at least give the opportunity for a fairly rapid regrouping in the hope of returning to power after one short and chaotic hard-left term, hopefully mitigated by a hung parliament.
Even that route, though, cannot work unless the Conservative Party stops banging on about Europe. If an early general election led to a referendum and/or revocation of Article 50, the big risk would be that the Conservative Party would turn into a single-issue 'rerun Brexit' party. That would be the end of it, and it would take years for an alternative centre-right party to emerge.
I hope I haven't depressed my centre-right friends here too much with this gloomy prognosis!
I notice Labour already getting the excuses in about Tories wanting to deregulate, get rid of worker protections, and most scandalous of all....want to do a trade deal with the US...
Now, as far as I remember, I thought May had publicly basically guaranteed no change to workers rights and of course if we leave the EU, the UK will seek trade deals with every major economy (what Labour expect the UK to do, never seek any new trading relationships?).
We should be treating these ecofascists the same way as any other group that seeks to impose its policy agenda by force. Media companies should not be inviting them onto to prime-time shows to explain their case, any more than they would give Yaxley-Lennon a nice, soft, studio interview.
If Labour include a second vote for the EU elections then they have a good chance of coming out on top . If they don’t then the Brexit Party will likely win .
Watching the inability of the Revoke parties to understand how the election works is proving fun
Unless this is fixed I suspect Labour are going to get a lot of votes as others explain why the split vote makes voting for them completely pointless.
It's only pointless if you really, really care about who gets elected, which hardly anyone does at the EP elections.
The Euro-elections are an excellent opportunity to let off steam, protest and/or register positive support for a party, fairly safe in the knowledge that it'll have next-to-no impact on the running of their lives. It's like a national by-election.
In any case, no vote is ever pointless (which is why I hate the 'wasted vote' argument, which is an antidemocratic argument). Whether or not a vote goes towards electing someone, it still gives that party or individual an endorsement, which matters in a national context, and also presents a threat to other parties who may respond to it.
The Greens ought to know that as well as anyone (but probably don't because they're too up themselves): their performance in 1989 was a significant prompt to the government to take the environment, ozone and climate change seriously.
This Green Party tweet is total fake news and a misleading distortion of the truth. But I really think we should resist making it an offence or sending them to prison.
We should be treating these ecofascists the same way as any other group that seeks to impose its policy agenda by force. Media companies should not be inviting them onto to prime-time shows to explain their case, any more than they would give Yaxley-Lennon a nice, soft, studio interview.
We should be treating these ecofascists the same way as any other group that seeks to impose its policy agenda by force. Media companies should not be inviting them onto to prime-time shows to explain their case, any more than they would give Yaxley-Lennon a nice, soft, studio interview.
We should be treating these ecofascists the same way as any other group that seeks to impose its policy agenda by force. Media companies should not be inviting them onto to prime-time shows to explain their case, any more than they would give Yaxley-Lennon a nice, soft, studio interview.
We should be treating these ecofascists the same way as any other group that seeks to impose its policy agenda by force. Media companies should not be inviting them onto to prime-time shows to explain their case, any more than they would give Yaxley-Lennon a nice, soft, studio interview.
We should be treating these ecofascists the same way as any other group that seeks to impose its policy agenda by force. Media companies should not be inviting them onto to prime-time shows to explain their case, any more than they would give Yaxley-Lennon a nice, soft, studio interview.
If he "cares so deeply", I trust he will not be breeding.....
What's the betting he has a lovely trust fund that means he doesn't have to have a proper job?
There is an alternative history where posh twats with lovely trust funds did not take over the Conservative Party and accidentally commit us to Brexit.
I deplore government by referendum, but circumstances may leave us with no choice but to accept another wretched plebiscite. Should the question be resolved in favour of REMAIN far thinking conservatives (who have always excelled at adapt and survive) need to think about how the conservative party might reinvent itself as a pro-European party.
Thus cementing the party's final slide into oblivion. I am afraid this kind of thinking is 'wrong sort of voter' territory.
Not really. There is a big gap in the market for a centre-right pro-business pro-competition smaller-state Remain-but-not-federalise fiscally-prudent political party. Indeed, shorn of the Eurosceptic nutcases, it might be quite popular.
No, it really wouldn’t. And that is the delusion of the liberals in power inside the Conservative party.
Opinium did an interesting analysis on political “tribes”,
Plenty of people call themselves “centrist”, including a huge number of 2016 kippers...the reality is this is a highly heterogenous group. Most are not liberal extremists. The “New Britain” and “Free Liberal” groups cannot hope to gain a majority without the right wing tribes as they have little in common with other “centrists” and there are parties occupying that ground anyway. Removing leave voters from the liberal groups and you are on only about 8% of the population...
It's a brave person who can call the short-term future of British politics, which is about the only thing Robert Peston has got right in the last few months. I've no idea and I don't think anyone else has. The person who calls it will be no better than the kid at a party sticking a tail on donkey.
There are a few things we can probably state with a little confidence.
First, Theresa May will go on kicking the can. She did it at the Home Office, it's her nature and she won't go anywhere until the day she is jemmied out of No.10.
Second, the ERG will continue to pi5s in the wind. They are not just malcontents but incompetents, as Mike Smithson called correctly long ago.
Third, The Conservative civil war which simmered below the surface is now out in the open and is likely to get worse. The idea of a 'unity' candidate is a long, long, way off.
Fourth, Brexit matters a lot more to the hard right than to the left. This is consistently shown in polling and it may come to matter as the domestic plot thickens.
Miss Cyclefree, sorry to hear that, but slightly surprised you never had anaesthetic before. Injection?
I had one or two of those a while ago. Less than pleasant, although my last filling was so easy I was surprised when the dentist said it was done.
Yes. Teeth normally fine. Am lucky to have never had a filling. But now some bone loss at back so likely to lose one tooth unless go for complicated periodontal stuff which may not succeed. So long as it does not affect my smile.
Ah well.
Anyway a v good header. Tories rubbish. Labour ghastly. Everyone else nowhere. My vote - like my back tooth - will be pointless.
I get the impression even the media is now bored of Brexit, and desperate to talk about anything else for a while. We may get more bread and butter issues like education and health in the headlines over the next few months, which unfortunately is probably going to benefit Labour.
I think the boredom is real, and reaches into Parliament. People who think any decision is coming soon are deluding themselves. TM has a road leading to October and she is guaranteed to kick the can down it, with acquiescence from bored and frustrated MPs.
It's noticeable that the Tory leadership candidates aren't talking about Brexit either.
Which means we’ll be kicked out in October by the French.
With Tusk gone and May still there boring the pants off everyone who on the EU side would want to extend the agony to allow us to faff around some more?
Tusk will still be in position; his term isn't up until 30th November. Timmermans is very likely to be the next President of the Commission but it's difficult to see who Tusk's successor will be. Varadkar would be a very typically EU choice.
If Labour include a second vote for the EU elections then they have a good chance of coming out on top . If they don’t then the Brexit Party will likely win .
Watching the inability of the Revoke parties to understand how the election works is proving fun
Unless this is fixed I suspect Labour are going to get a lot of votes as others explain why the split vote makes voting for them completely pointless.
This sort of dis-information really isn't acceptable.
The European Elections work on a party list system. Voting for your preferred choice is NOT a wasted vote and your patronising assessment of Revoke parties is unacceptable.
Take a region like the South-West. The party list system last time elected a Green MEP, something unthinkable on FPTP.
Stop spreading rubbish.
You clearly failed to read Alastair's thread header the other day about why under the D'hondt system split votes is a real and likely danger for smaller parties because of the way in which the votes are tallied to arrive at the award of MEP slots. Basically eek is absolutely right and there is a serious danger to parties like the greens under this system.
We should be treating these ecofascists the same way as any other group that seeks to impose its policy agenda by force. Media companies should not be inviting them onto to prime-time shows to explain their case, any more than they would give Yaxley-Lennon a nice, soft, studio interview.
If he "cares so deeply", I trust he will not be breeding.....
What's the betting he has a lovely trust fund that means he doesn't have to have a proper job?
There is an alternative history where posh twats with lovely trust funds did not take over the Conservative Party and accidentally commit us to Brexit.
Well allegedly they used to also enjoy smashing shit up as well.
If Labour include a second vote for the EU elections then they have a good chance of coming out on top . If they don’t then the Brexit Party will likely win .
Watching the inability of the Revoke parties to understand how the election works is proving fun
Depressing though it is, all roads lead to a Corbyn government:
- If Brexit doesn't get delivered, the Conservative Party will be in such a bad state and so split that it will be in no position to fight an election in the next three years.
- If Brexit does happen, through a chaotic no-deal crash out, it will be even worse: all the above applies and in addition the disruption to the economy and to people's lives will be blamed on the party for a decade.
McDonnell and Milne of course realise this, which is why the talks with Labour will collapse.
Is there a way out? Yes there is, sort-of. It may not be possible for the Conservatives to avoid losing the next election, but it may be possible to choose when and how to lose it. And the best choice, or rather the least bad of several very bad choices, looks to me to lose an election before Brexit happens, thus landing Corbyn with the problem. That would at least give the opportunity for a fairly rapid regrouping in the hope of returning to power after one short and chaotic hard-left term, hopefully mitigated by a hung parliament.
Even that route, though, cannot work unless the Conservative Party stops banging on about Europe. If an early general election led to a referendum and/or revocation of Article 50, the big risk would be that the Conservative Party would turn into a single-issue 'rerun Brexit' party. That would be the end of it, and it would take years for an alternative centre-right party to emerge.
I hope I haven't depressed my centre-right friends here too much with this gloomy prognosis!
What about calling a referendum to settle the argument in the Tory party?
We should be treating these ecofascists the same way as any other group that seeks to impose its policy agenda by force. Media companies should not be inviting them onto to prime-time shows to explain their case, any more than they would give Yaxley-Lennon a nice, soft, studio interview.
If he "cares so deeply", I trust he will not be breeding.....
What's the betting he has a lovely trust fund that means he doesn't have to have a proper job?
There is an alternative history where posh twats with lovely trust funds did not take over the Conservative Party and accidentally commit us to Brexit.
Yeah, goddamn it, don't people know that necessary radical change is achievable by doing what you're told and not rocking the boat. I mean, look at all movements for radical change in history: women got the vote by making their men sandwiches, slavery was abolished only because of the grace of white people and not at all due to bloody rebellions and wars, and Indian independence was completely about that one guy and his hunger strike, not a strategy of planned disobedience and an attempt at stalling the economy of the empire that controlled them. Not rocking the boat, makes things happen.
Depressing though it is, all roads lead to a Corbyn government:
- If Brexit doesn't get delivered, the Conservative Party will be in such a bad state and so split that it will be in no position to fight an election in the next three years.
- If Brexit does happen, through a chaotic no-deal crash out, it will be even worse: all the above applies and in addition the disruption to the economy and to people's lives will be blamed on the party for a decade.
McDonnell and Milne of course realise this, which is why the talks with Labour will collapse.
Is there a way out? Yes there is, sort-of. It may not be possible for the Conservatives to avoid losing the next election, but it may be possible to choose when and how to lose it. And the best choice, or rather the least bad of several very bad choices, looks to me to lose an election before Brexit happens, thus landing Corbyn with the problem. That would at least give the opportunity for a fairly rapid regrouping in the hope of returning to power after one short and chaotic hard-left term, hopefully mitigated by a hung parliament.
Even that route, though, cannot work unless the Conservative Party stops banging on about Europe. If an early general election led to a referendum and/or revocation of Article 50, the big risk would be that the Conservative Party would turn into a single-issue 'rerun Brexit' party. That would be the end of it, and it would take years for an alternative centre-right party to emerge.
I hope I haven't depressed my centre-right friends here too much with this gloomy prognosis!
Not gloomy enough. If they call an election under those circumstances, they'll probably "lose", but not badly enough for Corbyn to become PM. Meaning six months of chaos, during which they'll elect a new Tory leader who'll have to immediately call another election, at which they'll get tanked.
Depressing though it is, all roads lead to a Corbyn government:
- If Brexit doesn't get delivered, the Conservative Party will be in such a bad state and so split that it will be in no position to fight an election in the next three years.
- If Brexit does happen, through a chaotic no-deal crash out, it will be even worse: all the above applies and in addition the disruption to the economy and to people's lives will be blamed on the party for a decade.
McDonnell and Milne of course realise this, which is why the talks with Labour will collapse.
Is there a way out? Yes there is, sort-of. It may not be possible for the Conservatives to avoid losing the next election, but it may be possible to choose when and how to lose it. And the best choice, or rather the least bad of several very bad choices, looks to me to lose an election before Brexit happens, thus landing Corbyn with the problem. That would at least give the opportunity for a fairly rapid regrouping in the hope of returning to power after one short and chaotic hard-left term, hopefully mitigated by a hung parliament.
Even that route, though, cannot work unless the Conservative Party stops banging on about Europe. If an early general election led to a referendum and/or revocation of Article 50, the big risk would be that the Conservative Party would turn into a single-issue 'rerun Brexit' party. That would be the end of it, and it would take years for an alternative centre-right party to emerge.
I hope I haven't depressed my centre-right friends here too much with this gloomy prognosis!
What about calling a referendum to settle the argument in the Tory party?
If she hadn't made it one of her utterly pointless red lines, this was the obvious solution aeons ago. Given that no-one had a clear idea of the meaning of Leave in 2016, she could have presented a very coherent case for putting her deal back to the British people in a confirmatory referendum. But she made a 'thing' of it, as she has so often until she is eventually forced to realise she's wrong ... several millennia later.
A couple of well dressed no doubt double barrelled trustafarian toffs preventing working class east Londoners getting to work or hospital by public transport? The irony of holding up those not driving is clearly lost on them?
They could of course go to Beijing and demonstrate. China will have built 150 new airports before we dig the first hole for the fourth runway st Heathrow. But they wouldn’t put up with such nonsense.
Any thing we Brits do is an irrelevance anyway if others don’t comply.
Depressing though it is, all roads lead to a Corbyn government:
- If Brexit doesn't get delivered, the Conservative Party will be in such a bad state and so split that it will be in no position to fight an election in the next three years.
- If Brexit does happen, through a chaotic no-deal crash out, it will be even worse: all the above applies and in addition the disruption to the economy and to people's lives will be blamed on the party for a decade.
McDonnell and Milne of course realise this, which is why the talks with Labour will collapse.
Is there a way out? Yes there is, sort-of. It may not be possible for the Conservatives to avoid losing the next election, but it may be possible to choose when and how to lose it. And the best choice, or rather the least bad of several very bad choices, looks to me to lose an election before Brexit happens, thus landing Corbyn with the problem. That would at least give the opportunity for a fairly rapid regrouping in the hope of returning to power after one short and chaotic hard-left term, hopefully mitigated by a hung parliament.
Even that route, though, cannot work unless the Conservative Party stops banging on about Europe. If an early general election led to a referendum and/or revocation of Article 50, the big risk would be that the Conservative Party would turn into a single-issue 'rerun Brexit' party. That would be the end of it, and it would take years for an alternative centre-right party to emerge.
I hope I haven't depressed my centre-right friends here too much with this gloomy prognosis!
Trouble is even if Tories landed Corbyn with Brexit issue Corbyn likely to make Brexit even worse.
Revoke Article 50. Admit that the Leave campaigners had no idea of the practicalities of leaving in a sensible fashion. Hire some Pooh-Bahs onto a Commission to work out how to do it. Then when have a plan decide whether or not to go ahead but have a proper vote. In the meanwhile try and focus on the real problems which need dealing with.
If Labour include a second vote for the EU elections then they have a good chance of coming out on top . If they don’t then the Brexit Party will likely win .
Watching the inability of the Revoke parties to understand how the election works is proving fun
Unless this is fixed I suspect Labour are going to get a lot of votes as others explain why the split vote makes voting for them completely pointless.
The LibDems at least understand, but great uncle Vince on the radio this morning said with his usual energy that there's nothing they can do about it....
At this point that is factually correct. The deadline for creating joint lists has passed.
I'm not sure the electorate will listen for the 30 seconds needed to explain why voting for minor parties with regional d'Hondt is unproductive in seat terms, so it won't especially depress their votes, but they'll emerge with only a handful of seats. I do agree though with whoever it was that posted that Labour should push the "Only Labour can stop Farage winning these elections" line - it goes with the sadly dominant negative tone of British politics at present, and it is also almost certainly entirely true.
What about calling a referendum to settle the argument in the Tory party?
Not really an option, I fear. Just too unpopular with the membership and a lot of MPs. Having a referendum forced on the party by parliament would be a bit better, but I can't really see it: the timing is too difficult (it would need another extension, since we seem to wasting the extension we've already got), choosing the question would be extremely fraught, and it would require Labour support which is a whole problem in itself. And if it did somehow happen, and led to revocation of Article 50, then my fear of the party becoming a single-issue 'rerun Brexit' party would kick in. If it led to a result supporting Brexit on the deal, that would be better but I think that's very unlikely - who is going to campaign for the deal, since Brexiteers have spent so much effort trashing it?
At what price will the Conservatives (now 16/1) be value again? There must be a fair chunk of Tory voters who put their X next to the blue rosette out of habit, and a chance Ukip and Brexit confusion will split that vote.
The pointless vote meme reminds me of the 'Remember, a Liberal Vote is a Wasted Vote' tag that the tabloids used to print. It suits the ruling elite, of course.
I think the locals and EU elections will see a huge backlash. Whether Labour can avoid the collateral, I'm not sure. But it certainly, for once, helps that Corbyn is at the helm. He is mainstream yet appears (to most) to be counter-culture.
Farage is spreading the fake news about the left splitting their vote, not least because he still faces a problem on the right from UKIP doing the same thing to him.
I deplore government by referendum, but circumstances may leave us with no choice but to accept another wretched plebiscite. Should the question be resolved in favour of REMAIN far thinking conservatives (who have always excelled at adapt and survive) need to think about how the conservative party might reinvent itself as a pro-European party.
Thus cementing the party's final slide into oblivion. I am afraid this kind of thinking is 'wrong sort of voter' territory.
Not really. There is a big gap in the market for a centre-right pro-business pro-competition smaller-state Remain-but-not-federalise fiscally-prudent political party. Indeed, shorn of the Eurosceptic nutcases, it might be quite popular.
No, it really wouldn’t. And that is the delusion of the liberals in power inside the Conservative party.
Opinium did an interesting analysis on political “tribes”,
Plenty of people call themselves “centrist”, including a huge number of 2016 kippers...the reality is this is a highly heterogenous group. Most are not liberal extremists. The “New Britain” and “Free Liberal” groups cannot hope to gain a majority without the right wing tribes as they have little in common with other “centrists” and there are parties occupying that ground anyway. Removing leave voters from the liberal groups and you are on only about 8% of the population...
Just wondering what 'Remain but not federalise' is going to mean in the very long term now that the Euro is in place over so much of the EU. As long as the Euro is in place, not federalising is not an option is it? Obviously we are not in it now, but in time....
If Labour include a second vote for the EU elections then they have a good chance of coming out on top . If they don’t then the Brexit Party will likely win .
Watching the inability of the Revoke parties to understand how the election works is proving fun
Unless this is fixed I suspect Labour are going to get a lot of votes as others explain why the split vote makes voting for them completely pointless.
The LibDems at least understand, but great uncle Vince on the radio this morning said with his usual energy that there's nothing they can do about it....
At this point that is factually correct. The deadline for creating joint lists has passed.
I'm not sure the electorate will listen for the 30 seconds needed to explain why voting for minor parties with regional d'Hondt is unproductive in seat terms, so it won't especially depress their votes, but they'll emerge with only a handful of seats. I do agree though with whoever it was that posted that Labour should push the "Only Labour can stop Farage winning these elections" line - it goes with the sadly dominant negative tone of British politics at present, and it is also almost certainly entirely true.
If your votes are mainly coming from London and the South east with 21 MEPs between them it does apply. Why do southerners get proportionality but people in the north east dont.
Why does it take 30 percent of the vote to elect an MEP in Durham but less than 10 per cent in Dulwich or Dorking?
Depressing though it is, all roads lead to a Corbyn government:
- If Brexit doesn't get delivered, the Conservative Party will be in such a bad state and so split that it will be in no position to fight an election in the next three years.
- If Brexit does happen, through a chaotic no-deal crash out, it will be even worse: all the above applies and in addition the disruption to the economy and to people's lives will be blamed on the party for a decade.
McDonnell and Milne of course realise this, which is why the talks with Labour will collapse.
Is there a way out? Yes there is, sort-of. It may not be possible for the Conservatives to avoid losing the next election, but it may be possible to choose when and how to lose it. And the best choice, or rather the least bad of several very bad choices, looks to me to lose an election before Brexit happens, thus landing Corbyn with the problem. That would at least give the opportunity for a fairly rapid regrouping in the hope of returning to power after one short and chaotic hard-left term, hopefully mitigated by a hung parliament.
Even that route, though, cannot work unless the Conservative Party stops banging on about Europe. If an early general election led to a referendum and/or revocation of Article 50, the big risk would be that the Conservative Party would turn into a single-issue 'rerun Brexit' party. That would be the end of it, and it would take years for an alternative centre-right party to emerge.
I hope I haven't depressed my centre-right friends here too much with this gloomy prognosis!
Trouble is even if Tories landed Corbyn with Brexit issue Corbyn likely to make Brexit even worse.
Revoke Article 50. Admit that the Leave campaigners had no idea of the practicalities of leaving in a sensible fashion. Hire some Pooh-Bahs onto a Commission to work out how to do it. Then when have a plan decide whether or not to go ahead but have a proper vote. In the meanwhile try and focus on the real problems which need dealing with.
At what price will the Conservatives (now 16/1) be value again? There must be a fair chunk of Tory voters who put their X next to the blue rosette out of habit, and a chance Ukip and Brexit confusion will split that vote.
Some thoughts about the Farage phalanx. He's moved swiftly and, ordinarily, with only six weeks to go that would see him into a potentially unassailable position. However, there are some counter factors at play.
1. Most people are totally fed up with Brexit. I'm not convinced that he's garnering much enthusiasm on the ground because I don't think there's much enthusiasm full stop. His march might be anecfactal but it was hardly a prolific affair. The pro-Remain one was the real eye opener.
2. Easter. It's a bugger for Farage that the holidays have come just as he's launched. He's losing traction by the very fact that minds, and bodies, are elsewhere.
3. The Locals. This is the real problem for him. Much anger will be vented at the Locals. Here, I think, Labour will do very well and the Conservatives will be taken to the cleaners. This may lance the boil, but it will certainly distract from the EU elections.
4. Theresa May. Love her or loathe her, and mostly it's the latter, she's a survivalist. I expect something, probably complete hogwash, but something, to be produced shortly before May 23rd as an attempt to stop a tory wipeout.
I deplore government by referendum, but circumstances may leave us with no choice but to accept another wretched plebiscite. Should the question be resolved in favour of REMAIN far thinking conservatives (who have always excelled at adapt and survive) need to think about how the conservative party might reinvent itself as a pro-European party.
Thus cementing the party's final slide into oblivion. I am afraid this kind of thinking is 'wrong sort of voter' territory.
Not really. There is a big gap in the market for a centre-right pro-business pro-competition smaller-state Remain-but-not-federalise fiscally-prudent political party. Indeed, shorn of the Eurosceptic nutcases, it might be quite popular.
No, it really wouldn’t. And that is the delusion of the liberals in power inside the Conservative party.
Opinium did an interesting analysis on political “tribes”,
Plenty of people call themselves “centrist”, including a huge number of 2016 kippers...the reality is this is a highly heterogenous group. Most are not liberal extremists. The “New Britain” and “Free Liberal” groups cannot hope to gain a majority without the right wing tribes as they have little in common with other “centrists” and there are parties occupying that ground anyway. Removing leave voters from the liberal groups and you are on only about 8% of the population...
Just wondering what 'Remain but not federalise' is going to mean in the very long term now that the Euro is in place over so much of the EU. As long as the Euro is in place, not federalising is not an option is it? Obviously we are not in it now, but in time....
“Remain but not federalise” will mean what it has always meant.
“Actually we really do want to federalise but we don’t want to scare the eurosceptic horses.”
In fact I wouldn’t be surprised if that line would be dropped the more and more integrated we got.
At what price will the Conservatives (now 16/1) be value again? There must be a fair chunk of Tory voters who put their X next to the blue rosette out of habit, and a chance Ukip and Brexit confusion will split that vote.
At what price will the Conservatives (now 16/1) be value again? There must be a fair chunk of Tory voters who put their X next to the blue rosette out of habit, and a chance Ukip and Brexit confusion will split that vote.
Improbable as it may seem, it is conceivable that the Tories pull an Easter Brexit Bunny out of the hat. Can't see it myself, but possibly 25/1 is fair value.
Just wondering what 'Remain but not federalise' is going to mean in the very long term now that the Euro is in place over so much of the EU. As long as the Euro is in place, not federalising is not an option is it? Obviously we are not in it now, but in time....
The euro issue is not so much whether the UK joins, which seems distinctly unlikely for the foreseeable* future, but the extent to which (a) the existence of the euro is a driver for further integration - particularly over fiscal policy - just to make the single currency work properly; (b) the interests of the more tightly integrated EU states, particularly euro members, become increasingly aligned and by default Britain becomes increasingly out of step.
The reality is there is no "perpetual status quo" Remain settlement, and I'm not sure "remain but don't federalise" is a long-run viable position unless it's accompanied by real teeth. Something like "we will negotiate a a form of associate/non-core membership; we will set up legal guarantees that eurozone/inner-core countries cannot combine to outvote associate/non-core members on an extensive list of reserved issues", the kind of stuff that was occasionally floated for Cameron's "renegotiation for a Reformed European Union".
* might not be far, that, but can't see it happening in the next 10 years...
Absorbing and thought-provoking header Mr Meeks. Just one thing I want to quibble with atm, namely the term "negative feedback". In its usual context of control systems or electrical circuitry negative feedback is stabilising, but you want to say destabilising, so the correct term is positive feedback. Although your incorrect usage is met quite often in casual use of the term nowadays, it still jars.
I think regardless of legal ownership, is there any serious dispute that if the Chinese government really wanted Huawei to do something, it would get done?
Depressing though it is, all roads lead to a Corbyn government:
- If Brexit doesn't get delivered, the Conservative Party will be in such a bad state and so split that it will be in no position to fight an election in the next three years.
- If Brexit does happen, through a chaotic no-deal crash out, it will be even worse: all the above applies and in addition the disruption to the economy and to people's lives will be blamed on the party for a decade.
McDonnell and Milne of course realise this, which is why the talks with Labour will collapse.
Is there a way out? Yes there is, sort-of. It may not be possible for the Conservatives to avoid losing the next election, but it may be possible to choose when and how to lose it. And the best choice, or rather the least bad of several very bad choices, looks to me to lose an election before Brexit happens, thus landing Corbyn with the problem. That would at least give the opportunity for a fairly rapid regrouping in the hope of returning to power after one short and chaotic hard-left term, hopefully mitigated by a hung parliament.
Even that route, though, cannot work unless the Conservative Party stops banging on about Europe. If an early general election led to a referendum and/or revocation of Article 50, the big risk would be that the Conservative Party would turn into a single-issue 'rerun Brexit' party. That would be the end of it, and it would take years for an alternative centre-right party to emerge.
I hope I haven't depressed my centre-right friends here too much with this gloomy prognosis!
That should also make gloomy reading for the centre-left!
I think regardless of legal ownership, is there any serious dispute that if the Chinese government really wanted Huawei to do something, it would get done?
Hardware companies are so shit at security that it doesn't really matter whether Huawei intend their kit to do the something or not.
I think regardless of legal ownership, is there any serious dispute that if the Chinese government really wanted Huawei to do something, it would get done?
Well its the law (in China)....but we still appear like we are going to buy all their equipment for 5G, despite this and the fact that security experts say their software engineering is like something from 20 years ago.
If Labour include a second vote for the EU elections then they have a good chance of coming out on top . If they don’t then the Brexit Party will likely win .
Watching the inability of the Revoke parties to understand how the election works is proving fun
Depressing though it is, all roads lead to a Corbyn government:
- If Brexit doesn't get delivered, the Conservative Party will be in such a bad state and so split that it will be in no position to fight an election in the next three years.
- If Brexit does happen, through a chaotic no-deal crash out, it will be even worse: all the above applies and in addition the disruption to the economy and to people's lives will be blamed on the party for a decade.
McDonnell and Milne of course realise this, which is why the talks with Labour will collapse.
Is there a way out? Yes there is, sort-of. It may not be possible for the Conservatives to avoid losing the next election, but it may be possible to choose when and how to lose it. And the best choice, or rather the least bad of several very bad choices, looks to me to lose an election before Brexit happens, thus landing Corbyn with the problem. That would at least give the opportunity for a fairly rapid regrouping in the hope of returning to power after one short and chaotic hard-left term, hopefully mitigated by a hung parliament.
Even that route, though, cannot work unless the Conservative Party stops banging on about Europe. If an early general election led to a referendum and/or revocation of Article 50, the big risk would be that the Conservative Party would turn into a single-issue 'rerun Brexit' party. That would be the end of it, and it would take years for an alternative centre-right party to emerge.
I hope I haven't depressed my centre-right friends here too much with this gloomy prognosis!
That should also make gloomy reading for the centre-left!
Some thoughts about the Farage phalanx. He's moved swiftly and, ordinarily, with only six weeks to go that would see him into a potentially unassailable position. However, there are some counter factors at play.
1. Most people are totally fed up with Brexit. I'm not convinced that he's garnering much enthusiasm on the ground because I don't think there's much enthusiasm full stop. His march might be anecfactal but it was hardly a prolific affair. The pro-Remain one was the real eye opener.
2. Easter. It's a bugger for Farage that the holidays have come just as he's launched. He's losing traction by the very fact that minds, and bodies, are elsewhere.
3. The Locals. This is the real problem for him. Much anger will be vented at the Locals. Here, I think, Labour will do very well and the Conservatives will be taken to the cleaners. This may lance the boil, but it will certainly distract from the EU elections.
4. Theresa May. Love her or loathe her, and mostly it's the latter, she's a survivalist. I expect something, probably complete hogwash, but something, to be produced shortly before May 23rd as an attempt to stop a tory wipeout.
I do agree with you on this occasion. There has never been much interest in the EU elections - hence, the decision to combine them with the Local Elections post-1999. Perhaps it also needs to be recalled that in 2014 UKIP benefitted from the LibDems being in Coalition - and,therefore, no longer available as an anti-Establishment NOTA alternative.
At this point that is factually correct. The deadline for creating joint lists has passed.
I'm not sure the electorate will listen for the 30 seconds needed to explain why voting for minor parties with regional d'Hondt is unproductive in seat terms, so it won't especially depress their votes, but they'll emerge with only a handful of seats. I do agree though with whoever it was that posted that Labour should push the "Only Labour can stop Farage winning these elections" line - it goes with the sadly dominant negative tone of British politics at present, and it is also almost certainly entirely true.
The "Only Labour can stop Farage winning these elections" line would work better if Corbyn's policy on whether to do Brexit or not was identifiably different to Farage's.
At what price will the Conservatives (now 16/1) be value again? There must be a fair chunk of Tory voters who put their X next to the blue rosette out of habit, and a chance Ukip and Brexit confusion will split that vote.
Improbable as it may seem, it is conceivable that the Tories pull an Easter Brexit Bunny out of the hat. Can't see it myself, but possibly 25/1 is fair value.
25/1 horses do win now and again! This is one election the Tories ain't gonna win
People moaning about the climate change protesters, I see. Poor show. Extinction Rebellion, a great name and surely a great cause. What could be more important than saving the planet? If we don't have a planet we can't continue the human story, either for better or for worse.
However, I did not feel that way when I got caught up in it yesterday. I got stuck on a bus in Central London, did not move for ages due to all the vibrant young people making their point, and it was no fun at all. Rather ruined my afternoon plans actually.
Which got me thinking. Why not have a specific designated space somewhere for political protests to take place? Perhaps a section of Hyde Park could be given over to this on a permanent basis. So you book it (free of charge) and you hold your demo there. The TV people can come, speeches can be covered, it would serve its purpose of highlighting the issue at hand, but buses would not be affected.
Is that just too sensible for the authorities to consider?
I deplore government by referendum, but circumstances may leave us with no choice but to accept another wretched plebiscite. Should the question be resolved in favour of REMAIN far thinking conservatives (who have always excelled at adapt and survive) need to think about how the conservative party might reinvent itself as a pro-European party.
Thus cementing the party's final slide into oblivion. I am afraid this kind of thinking is 'wrong sort of voter' territory.
Not really. There is a big gap in the market for a centre-right pro-business pro-competition smaller-state Remain-but-not-federalise fiscally-prudent political party. Indeed, shorn of the Eurosceptic nutcases, it might be quite popular.
There's probably a 10% gap in the market for such a party.
Where does that get you under FPTP ?
Nah, it's at least a 15% base, minimum, plus plenty more centrists depending on circumstances (which are quite favourable right now). But frankly, if all it does is keep the Brexit-UKIP-ERG rump out of power, that alone would be worthwhile.
In any case, a system with at six or seven GB parties polling 5%+ would make FPTP unsustainable and would probably result in PR following one or two more hung parliaments.
I think @another_richard is right: you'd be looking at 10 -15%, but not more. Politics is tribal not logic based (one poster above detailed what he believed to be the basic tenets of Conservatism, but there arent any) and there is no tribe for this putative party. You could pick up Libs' sloppy seconds now that they've gone full Mirror Universe UKIP, but that's about it.
An academic I know is a proper green type, refuses to take foreign holidays himself and won't even travel much beyond locally for the ones he takes in the UK. (Which seems a bit much to me - would taking the kids a few hundred miles on an electric railway really destroy the planet? Could always donate a few quid in "carbon offsets" if you were worried it wasn't wind-powered that day. Or wait to go on holiday until the weather forecast says it's going to be windy if you're that insistent.) I know he's taking these things seriously as he has blogged about taking them for summer holidays in nearby Luton instead. Reckon Sean F would approve. Sean T maybe not so much...
3. The Locals. This is the real problem for him. Much anger will be vented at the Locals. Here, I think, Labour will do very well and the Conservatives will be taken to the cleaners. This may lance the boil, but it will certainly distract from the EU elections.
If the locals are a problem it will be because media attention will be on the parties (presumably Labour, Lib Dems and possibly UKIP after all) that do well and the party that doesn't (presumably the Conservatives). Therefore no airtime for Farage.
I don't think there's any chance of it lancing the boil for the Tories. If anything, if they receive a real drubbing, then it will make the EU elections even worse. Not much enthusiasm to vote for a bunch of losers, so the enthusiasm gap will only widen.
It's a perfect storm for the Tories. I can't think of much that would make it worse. Perhaps a botched Cabinet coup in between the locals and EU elections would do so.
Some thoughts about the Farage phalanx. He's moved swiftly and, ordinarily, with only six weeks to go that would see him into a potentially unassailable position. However, there are some counter factors at play.
1. Most people are totally fed up with Brexit. I'm not convinced that he's garnering much enthusiasm on the ground because I don't think there's much enthusiasm full stop. His march might be anecfactal but it was hardly a prolific affair. The pro-Remain one was the real eye opener.
2. Easter. It's a bugger for Farage that the holidays have come just as he's launched. He's losing traction by the very fact that minds, and bodies, are elsewhere.
3. The Locals. This is the real problem for him. Much anger will be vented at the Locals. Here, I think, Labour will do very well and the Conservatives will be taken to the cleaners. This may lance the boil, but it will certainly distract from the EU elections.
4. Theresa May. Love her or loathe her, and mostly it's the latter, she's a survivalist. I expect something, probably complete hogwash, but something, to be produced shortly before May 23rd as an attempt to stop a tory wipeout.
On point 3, it is likely that UKIP will lose seats, not least because they have few standing. Farage's splitters won't be standing, and the story of the night is likely to be Lab, LD, Green and Ind gains. The argument is about how much this meets expectations. This is the likely preamble to the Euros.
An academic I know is a proper green type, refuses to take foreign holidays himself and won't even travel much beyond locally for the ones he takes in the UK. (Which seems a bit much to me - would taking the kids a few hundred miles on an electric railway really destroy the planet? Could always donate a few quid in "carbon offsets" if you were worried it wasn't wind-powered that day. Or wait to go on holiday until the weather forecast says it's going to be windy if you're that insistent.) I know he's taking these things seriously as he has blogged about taking them for summer holidays in nearby Luton instead. Reckon Sean F would approve. Sean T maybe not so much...
Do they never attend any foreign conferences? Without being funny, surely they aren't doing their job properly if they are foregoing such trips?
People moaning about the climate change protesters, I see. Poor show. Extinction Rebellion, a great name and surely a great cause. What could be more important than saving the planet? If we don't have a planet we can't continue the human story, either for better or for worse.
However, I did not feel that way when I got caught up in it yesterday. I got stuck on a bus in Central London, did not move for ages due to all the vibrant young people making their point, and it was no fun at all. Rather ruined my afternoon plans actually.
Which got me thinking. Why not have a specific designated space somewhere for political protests to take place? Perhaps a section of Hyde Park could be given over to this on a permanent basis. So you book it (free of charge) and you hold your demo there. The TV people can come, speeches can be covered, it would serve its purpose of highlighting the issue at hand, but buses would not be affected.
Is that just too sensible for the authorities to consider?
I know some people involved in Extinction Rebellion. Direct Action and disruption - even deliberately getting arrested - was most explicitly the point. They weren't interested in speechifying or even getting favourable media coverage. They want to be a pain in the backside and stop everyday life rolling along, because they see our everyday life as unsustainable and harmful and reckon we all need to be reminded just how fragile it is.
People moaning about the climate change protesters, I see. Poor show. Extinction Rebellion, a great name and surely a great cause. What could be more important than saving the planet? If we don't have a planet we can't continue the human story, either for better or for worse.
However, I did not feel that way when I got caught up in it yesterday. I got stuck on a bus in Central London, did not move for ages due to all the vibrant young people making their point, and it was no fun at all. Rather ruined my afternoon plans actually.
Which got me thinking. Why not have a specific designated space somewhere for political protests to take place? Perhaps a section of Hyde Park could be given over to this on a permanent basis. So you book it (free of charge) and you hold your demo there. The TV people can come, speeches can be covered, it would serve its purpose of highlighting the issue at hand, but buses would not be affected.
Is that just too sensible for the authorities to consider?
What is the point of protest if it doesn't impact life? The point of their protest is to cause disruption, and by disrupting normality make people pay attention to the issue. You cannot sanitise protest. You cannot make the revolution conform to normality. Unfortunately we have left things quite late in the day, so instead of a steady shift to a more sustainable economy over decades, we have to make many decisions over a short period of time. That will be unpleasant. As will the inevitable effects of climate change that are already underway.
It is a mitigation process. And, again, unfortunately, modernity kinda has to stop to deal with it. All the hot takes being like "you'll never convince people to save the planet if it means eating less meat or not flying as much" don't understand a) that modernity is part of the problem, so actually those aren't options and b) you won't be able to fly or eat a cow burger in the post apocalyptic wasteland we leave the earth as if we don't deal with climate change.
More of a clash between Brexiteers and US Democratic party politicians, Republicans tend to be more supportive of Brexit but they no longer control Congress
People moaning about the climate change protesters, I see. Poor show. Extinction Rebellion, a great name and surely a great cause. What could be more important than saving the planet? If we don't have a planet we can't continue the human story, either for better or for worse.
However, I did not feel that way when I got caught up in it yesterday. I got stuck on a bus in Central London, did not move for ages due to all the vibrant young people making their point, and it was no fun at all. Rather ruined my afternoon plans actually.
Which got me thinking. Why not have a specific designated space somewhere for political protests to take place? Perhaps a section of Hyde Park could be given over to this on a permanent basis. So you book it (free of charge) and you hold your demo there. The TV people can come, speeches can be covered, it would serve its purpose of highlighting the issue at hand, but buses would not be affected.
Is that just too sensible for the authorities to consider?
I know some people involved in Extinction Rebellion. Direct Action and disruption - even deliberately getting arrested - was most explicitly the point. They weren't interested in speechifying or even getting favourable media coverage. They want to be a pain in the backside and stop everyday life rolling along, because they see our everyday life as unsustainable and harmful and reckon we all need to be reminded just how fragile it is.
Wasn't it on day one they deliberately vandalised an expensive revolving door, because if the damage exceeds a certain amount the police are duty bound to arrest you.
I'd quibble with one point... "At least a third of the population would sign up for the Euro. "? Hmmm... even as a committed Remainer who would be happy to join the Euro, I'd be surprised if support for it is that high.
That aside, you overlook May's obvious route out of this impasse:- put her Deal to the HoC again but allow it to be amended to require a confirmatory referendum.
It will cause deep division amongst the Tories (but that's already there anyway) but she could argue they can campaign for her Deal to win the 2nd Ref and thereby deliver their manifesto promise.
Potential successors can wait until the 2nd Ref is over and Brexit is sorted one way or another.
An academic I know is a proper green type, refuses to take foreign holidays himself and won't even travel much beyond locally for the ones he takes in the UK. (Which seems a bit much to me - would taking the kids a few hundred miles on an electric railway really destroy the planet? Could always donate a few quid in "carbon offsets" if you were worried it wasn't wind-powered that day. Or wait to go on holiday until the weather forecast says it's going to be windy if you're that insistent.) I know he's taking these things seriously as he has blogged about taking them for summer holidays in nearby Luton instead. Reckon Sean F would approve. Sean T maybe not so much...
Do they never attend any foreign conferences? Without being funny, surely they aren't doing their job properly if they are foregoing such trips?
He does occasionally, though most conferences he attends are within the UK - I wonder if ecoguilt over the times he has to go to the airport are the reason he inflicts summer hols in Luton on the family!
An academic I know is a proper green type, refuses to take foreign holidays himself and won't even travel much beyond locally for the ones he takes in the UK. (Which seems a bit much to me - would taking the kids a few hundred miles on an electric railway really destroy the planet? Could always donate a few quid in "carbon offsets" if you were worried it wasn't wind-powered that day. Or wait to go on holiday until the weather forecast says it's going to be windy if you're that insistent.) I know he's taking these things seriously as he has blogged about taking them for summer holidays in nearby Luton instead. Reckon Sean F would approve. Sean T maybe not so much...
Do they never attend any foreign conferences? Without being funny, surely they aren't doing their job properly if they are foregoing such trips?
I've seen people present via Skype. I am still surprised at how few meetings occur at high level over internet calls. I understand we are social beings, and that all business is run on the grease that is how well you get on with Bob, but at the end of the day everything breaks if we don't deal with the problem, so the annoyance of not flying and getting used to video conferences is less annoying then the world not being fit for human civilisation.
On an entirely unassociated point, if you Google "top 10 free VPNs" you may gather information on how to obtain a free virtual private network. If you do not have the tech ability to do so, you may wish to consult with your geeky teenage nephew who is really into IT and doesn't come out of his room much.
People moaning about the climate change protesters, I see. Poor show. Extinction Rebellion, a great name and surely a great cause. What could be more important than saving the planet? If we don't have a planet we can't continue the human story, either for better or for worse.
However, I did not feel that way when I got caught up in it yesterday. I got stuck on a bus in Central London, did not move for ages due to all the vibrant young people making their point, and it was no fun at all. Rather ruined my afternoon plans actually.
Which got me thinking. Why not have a specific designated space somewhere for political protests to take place? Perhaps a section of Hyde Park could be given over to this on a permanent basis. So you book it (free of charge) and you hold your demo there. The TV people can come, speeches can be covered, it would serve its purpose of highlighting the issue at hand, but buses would not be affected.
Is that just too sensible for the authorities to consider?
I know some people involved in Extinction Rebellion. Direct Action and disruption - even deliberately getting arrested - was most explicitly the point. They weren't interested in speechifying or even getting favourable media coverage. They want to be a pain in the backside and stop everyday life rolling along, because they see our everyday life as unsustainable and harmful and reckon we all need to be reminded just how fragile it is.
Yes I don't see the point of a protest unless it is proper disruptive (cf tube strikes). That said on a bicycle yesterday cycling through London it was great being traffic-free with policemen waving you through red lights (I am one of the idiots that always stops at red lights) and I got to ride (as roughshod as I could) over some of their banners on the ground around Marble Arch.
On an entirely unassociated point, if you Google "top 10 free VPNs" you may gather information on how to obtain a free virtual private network. If you do not have the tech ability to do so, you may wish to consult with your geeky teenage nephew who is really into IT and doesn't come out of his room much.
I wouldn't trust a free VPN....at the very least they sell your info.
However, for £30 a year you can get a trusted no-log one, and in this day and age you are an idiot to access any wifi outside your own home without using one.
I see the purchase / use of a VPN in the same way as buying anti-virus / firewall software.
Comments
The Euro-elections are an excellent opportunity to let off steam, protest and/or register positive support for a party, fairly safe in the knowledge that it'll have next-to-no impact on the running of their lives. It's like a national by-election.
In any case, no vote is ever pointless (which is why I hate the 'wasted vote' argument, which is an antidemocratic argument). Whether or not a vote goes towards electing someone, it still gives that party or individual an endorsement, which matters in a national context, and also presents a threat to other parties who may respond to it.
The Greens ought to know that as well as anyone (but probably don't because they're too up themselves): their performance in 1989 was a significant prompt to the government to take the environment, ozone and climate change seriously.
I had one or two of those a while ago. Less than pleasant, although my last filling was so easy I was surprised when the dentist said it was done.
No problems up here. It's only posh tossers competing in the virtue-signalling Olympics in London. As long as they stay in London, they can do what they want. But have they never heard of the phrase … never sh*t on your own doorstep?
Although they are threatening to spread it to Brighton, Cambridge and other strongholds where there's nests of them.
https://youtu.be/dDEnxNQTZrg
https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1118463392078008321?s=21
ttps://youtube.com/watch?v=dDEnxNQTZrg
Edit: Tissue Price beat me to the link.
If you think the Tories problems begin and end with Brexit then you have another thing coming.
Every time they open their mouths on any other issue you just feel like facepalming.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8880400/watch-moment-police-van-rams-into-yob-16-while-breaking-up-mass-edinburgh-riot-with-cars-smashed-and-torched/
This sort of dis-information really isn't acceptable.
The European Elections work on a party list system. Voting for your preferred choice is NOT a wasted vote and your patronising assessment of Revoke parties is unacceptable.
Take a region like the South-West. The party list system last time elected a Green MEP, something unthinkable on FPTP.
Stop spreading rubbish.
- If Brexit doesn't get delivered, the Conservative Party will be in such a bad state and so split that it will be in no position to fight an election in the next three years.
- If Brexit does happen, through a chaotic no-deal crash out, it will be even worse: all the above applies and in addition the disruption to the economy and to people's lives will be blamed on the party for a decade.
McDonnell and Milne of course realise this, which is why the talks with Labour will collapse.
Is there a way out? Yes there is, sort-of. It may not be possible for the Conservatives to avoid losing the next election, but it may be possible to choose when and how to lose it. And the best choice, or rather the least bad of several very bad choices, looks to me to lose an election before Brexit happens, thus landing Corbyn with the problem. That would at least give the opportunity for a fairly rapid regrouping in the hope of returning to power after one short and chaotic hard-left term, hopefully mitigated by a hung parliament.
Even that route, though, cannot work unless the Conservative Party stops banging on about Europe. If an early general election led to a referendum and/or revocation of Article 50, the big risk would be that the Conservative Party would turn into a single-issue 'rerun Brexit' party. That would be the end of it, and it would take years for an alternative centre-right party to emerge.
I hope I haven't depressed my centre-right friends here too much with this gloomy prognosis!
Now, as far as I remember, I thought May had publicly basically guaranteed no change to workers rights and of course if we leave the EU, the UK will seek trade deals with every major economy (what Labour expect the UK to do, never seek any new trading relationships?).
Opinium did an interesting analysis on political “tribes”,
https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Dead-Centre-British-politics4_lr.pdf
Plenty of people call themselves “centrist”, including a huge number of 2016 kippers...the reality is this is a highly heterogenous group. Most are not liberal extremists. The “New Britain” and “Free Liberal” groups cannot hope to gain a majority without the right wing tribes as they have little in common with other “centrists” and there are parties occupying that ground anyway. Removing leave voters from the liberal groups and you are on only about 8% of the population...
There are a few things we can probably state with a little confidence.
First, Theresa May will go on kicking the can. She did it at the Home Office, it's her nature and she won't go anywhere until the day she is jemmied out of No.10.
Second, the ERG will continue to pi5s in the wind. They are not just malcontents but incompetents, as Mike Smithson called correctly long ago.
Third, The Conservative civil war which simmered below the surface is now out in the open and is likely to get worse. The idea of a 'unity' candidate is a long, long, way off.
Fourth, Brexit matters a lot more to the hard right than to the left. This is consistently shown in polling and it may come to matter as the domestic plot thickens.
Fifth, we have a Fixed Term Parliament Act.
Ah well.
Anyway a v good header. Tories rubbish. Labour ghastly. Everyone else nowhere. My vote - like my back tooth - will be pointless.
They could of course go to Beijing and demonstrate. China will have built 150 new airports before we dig the first hole for the fourth runway st Heathrow. But they wouldn’t put up with such nonsense.
Any thing we Brits do is an irrelevance anyway if others don’t comply.
Revoke Article 50. Admit that the Leave campaigners had no idea of the practicalities of leaving in a sensible fashion. Hire some Pooh-Bahs onto a Commission to work out how to do it. Then when have a plan decide whether or not to go ahead but have a proper vote. In the meanwhile try and focus on the real problems which need dealing with.
I'm not sure the electorate will listen for the 30 seconds needed to explain why voting for minor parties with regional d'Hondt is unproductive in seat terms, so it won't especially depress their votes, but they'll emerge with only a handful of seats. I do agree though with whoever it was that posted that Labour should push the "Only Labour can stop Farage winning these elections" line - it goes with the sadly dominant negative tone of British politics at present, and it is also almost certainly entirely true.
I think the locals and EU elections will see a huge backlash. Whether Labour can avoid the collateral, I'm not sure. But it certainly, for once, helps that Corbyn is at the helm. He is mainstream yet appears (to most) to be counter-culture.
Farage is spreading the fake news about the left splitting their vote, not least because he still faces a problem on the right from UKIP doing the same thing to him.
Nobody can hear you make a ridiculous demand for a carbon-free economy when you're being slapped about by a giant land-walking superfish.
Why does it take 30 percent of the vote to elect an MEP in Durham but less than 10 per cent in Dulwich or Dorking?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2019/04/16/huaweis-employee-ownership-claims-sham-covering-possible-communist/
1. Most people are totally fed up with Brexit. I'm not convinced that he's garnering much enthusiasm on the ground because I don't think there's much enthusiasm full stop. His march might be anecfactal but it was hardly a prolific affair. The pro-Remain one was the real eye opener.
2. Easter. It's a bugger for Farage that the holidays have come just as he's launched. He's losing traction by the very fact that minds, and bodies, are elsewhere.
3. The Locals. This is the real problem for him. Much anger will be vented at the Locals. Here, I think, Labour will do very well and the Conservatives will be taken to the cleaners. This may lance the boil, but it will certainly distract from the EU elections.
4. Theresa May. Love her or loathe her, and mostly it's the latter, she's a survivalist. I expect something, probably complete hogwash, but something, to be produced shortly before May 23rd as an attempt to stop a tory wipeout.
“Actually we really do want to federalise but we don’t want to scare the eurosceptic horses.”
In fact I wouldn’t be surprised if that line would be dropped the more and more integrated we got.
The reality is there is no "perpetual status quo" Remain settlement, and I'm not sure "remain but don't federalise" is a long-run viable position unless it's accompanied by real teeth. Something like "we will negotiate a a form of associate/non-core membership; we will set up legal guarantees that eurozone/inner-core countries cannot combine to outvote associate/non-core members on an extensive list of reserved issues", the kind of stuff that was occasionally floated for Cameron's "renegotiation for a Reformed European Union".
* might not be far, that, but can't see it happening in the next 10 years...
We are not getting £20.70
On the 2/9/19 we stop not getting £20.70 any more.
Sigh!
I think regardless of legal ownership, is there any serious dispute that if the Chinese government really wanted Huawei to do something, it would get done?
Mind you, judging by the garbage you write on here I am not surprised you are confused by such simple principles as split votes.
https://order-order.com/2019/04/17/posh-eco-loon-no-holidays-except/
Got to love Guido
An age-check scheme designed to stop under-18s viewing pornographic websites will come into force on 15 July.
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-47960775
However, I did not feel that way when I got caught up in it yesterday. I got stuck on a bus in Central London, did not move for ages due to all the vibrant young people making their point, and it was no fun at all. Rather ruined my afternoon plans actually.
Which got me thinking. Why not have a specific designated space somewhere for political protests to take place? Perhaps a section of Hyde Park could be given over to this on a permanent basis. So you book it (free of charge) and you hold your demo there. The TV people can come, speeches can be covered, it would serve its purpose of highlighting the issue at hand, but buses would not be affected.
Is that just too sensible for the authorities to consider?
I think @another_richard is right: you'd be looking at 10 -15%, but not more. Politics is tribal not logic based (one poster above detailed what he believed to be the basic tenets of Conservatism, but there arent any) and there is no tribe for this putative party. You could pick up Libs' sloppy seconds now that they've gone full Mirror Universe UKIP, but that's about it.
I don't think there's any chance of it lancing the boil for the Tories. If anything, if they receive a real drubbing, then it will make the EU elections even worse. Not much enthusiasm to vote for a bunch of losers, so the enthusiasm gap will only widen.
It's a perfect storm for the Tories. I can't think of much that would make it worse. Perhaps a botched Cabinet coup in between the locals and EU elections would do so.
Oops
It is a mitigation process. And, again, unfortunately, modernity kinda has to stop to deal with it. All the hot takes being like "you'll never convince people to save the planet if it means eating less meat or not flying as much" don't understand a) that modernity is part of the problem, so actually those aren't options and b) you won't be able to fly or eat a cow burger in the post apocalyptic wasteland we leave the earth as if we don't deal with climate change.
European Parliament voting intention:
BREX: 27%
LAB: 22%
CON: 15%
GRN: 10%
LDEM: 9%
CHUK: 6%
via @YouGov, 15 - 16 Apr
12:45 PM - 17 Apr 2019
Well....
I'd quibble with one point... "At least a third of the population would sign up for the Euro. "? Hmmm... even as a committed Remainer who would be happy to join the Euro, I'd be surprised if support for it is that high.
That aside, you overlook May's obvious route out of this impasse:- put her Deal to the HoC again but allow it to be amended to require a confirmatory referendum.
It will cause deep division amongst the Tories (but that's already there anyway) but she could argue they can campaign for her Deal to win the 2nd Ref and thereby deliver their manifesto promise.
Potential successors can wait until the 2nd Ref is over and Brexit is sorted one way or another.
https://www.libdems.org.uk/candidates-eu-elections
However, for £30 a year you can get a trusted no-log one, and in this day and age you are an idiot to access any wifi outside your own home without using one.
I see the purchase / use of a VPN in the same way as buying anti-virus / firewall software.