We should be treating these ecofascists the same way as any other group that seeks to impose its policy agenda by force. Media companies should not be inviting them onto to prime-time shows to explain their case, any more than they would give Yaxley-Lennon a nice, soft, studio interview.
People moaning about the climate change protesters, I see. Poor show. Extinction Rebellion, a great name and surely a great cause. What could be more important than saving the planet? If we don't have a planet we can't continue the human story, either for better or for worse.
However, I did not feel that way when I got caught up in it yesterday. I got stuck on a bus in Central London, did not move for ages due to all the vibrant young people making their point, and it was no fun at all. Rather ruined my afternoon plans actually.
Which got me thinking. Why not have a specific designated space somewhere for political protests to take place? Perhaps a section of Hyde Park could be given over to this on a permanent basis. So you book it (free of charge) and you hold your demo there. The TV people can come, speeches can be covered, it would serve its purpose of highlighting the issue at hand, but buses would not be affected.
Is that just too sensible for the authorities to consider?
These econobs make me want to go to the Arctic and personally melt the ice cap.
3. The Locals. This is the real problem for him. Much anger will be vented at the Locals. Here, I think, Labour will do very well and the Conservatives will be taken to the cleaners. This may lance the boil, but it will certainly distract from the EU elections.
If the locals are a problem it will be because media attention will be on the parties (presumably Labour, Lib Dems and possibly UKIP after all) that do well and the party that doesn't (presumably the Conservatives). Therefore no airtime for Farage.
I don't think there's any chance of it lancing the boil for the Tories. If anything, if they receive a real drubbing, then it will make the EU elections even worse. Not much enthusiasm to vote for a bunch of losers, so the enthusiasm gap will only widen.
It's a perfect storm for the Tories. I can't think of much that would make it worse. Perhaps a botched Cabinet coup in between the locals and EU elections would do so.
The Tories are likely to win the locals regardless, they are only in the Shires, London, Scotland and Wales are not up and less than 20% of wards have a UKIP or Brexit Party candidate.
It is interesting how the Farage party are clearly picking up the pissed off Leave vote, but the Lib Dems on their specialist subject still can't get anything going from pissed off Remain vote.
An academic I know is a proper green type, refuses to take foreign holidays himself and won't even travel much beyond locally for the ones he takes in the UK. (Which seems a bit much to me - would taking the kids a few hundred miles on an electric railway really destroy the planet? Could always donate a few quid in "carbon offsets" if you were worried it wasn't wind-powered that day. Or wait to go on holiday until the weather forecast says it's going to be windy if you're that insistent.) I know he's taking these things seriously as he has blogged about taking them for summer holidays in nearby Luton instead. Reckon Sean F would approve. Sean T maybe not so much...
Do they never attend any foreign conferences? Without being funny, surely they aren't doing their job properly if they are foregoing such trips?
I've seen people present via Skype. I am still surprised at how few meetings occur at high level over internet calls. I understand we are social beings, and that all business is run on the grease that is how well you get on with Bob, but at the end of the day everything breaks if we don't deal with the problem, so the annoyance of not flying and getting used to video conferences is less annoying then the world not being fit for human civilisation.
Foreign conferences provide synergy, useful data and techniques. Exposing yourself to the views of others provides new avenues to explore and your own views safely interrogated. They are also an awesome opportunity to get pissed, have curries and do pub quizzes. If the American Statistical Association would stop holding conferences in places like Baltimore, then that would be even better...
If Labour include a second vote for the EU elections then they have a good chance of coming out on top . If they don’t then the Brexit Party will likely win .
Watching the inability of the Revoke parties to understand how the election works is proving fun
Unless this is fixed I suspect Labour are going to get a lot of votes as others explain why the split vote makes voting for them completely pointless.
This sort of dis-information really isn't acceptable.
The European Elections work on a party list system. Voting for your preferred choice is NOT a wasted vote and your patronising assessment of Revoke parties is unacceptable.
Take a region like the South-West. The party list system last time elected a Green MEP, something unthinkable on FPTP.
Stop spreading rubbish.
Except that the Greens do have an MP elected under FPTP and could quite easily win another in the SW, once the Corbyn bandwagon falls apart.
And, of course, the hundreds of thousands of votes the Greens received outside the South of England at the 2014 EP elections netted them precisely zero MEPs.
On an entirely unassociated point, if you Google "top 10 free VPNs" you may gather information on how to obtain a free virtual private network. If you do not have the tech ability to do so, you may wish to consult with your geeky teenage nephew who is really into IT and doesn't come out of his room much.
I wouldn't trust a free VPN....at the very least they sell your info.
However, for £30 a year you can get a trusted no-log one, and in this day and age you are an idiot to access any wifi outside your own home without using one.
I see the purchase / use of a VPN in the same way as buying anti-virus / firewall software.
I think regardless of legal ownership, is there any serious dispute that if the Chinese government really wanted Huawei to do something, it would get done?
Well its the law (in China)....but we still appear like we are going to buy all their equipment for 5G, despite this and the fact that security experts say their software engineering is like something from 20 years ago.
I'm curious whether China is ever really going to get on board with the whole Rule of Law thing - let alone anything approaching western-style democracy. The argument that wealthier better-educated populace and the importance of legally-protected property rights would lead to a more transparent and fairer legal system definitely sounded stronger (to me at least) than the idea that political change would automatically follow economic change, but it still seems there's a lot of murky stuff over there and it isn't a country you want to mess around with vested interests. Whether this is an ideal location either to export technology to (don't think I'd want to sign up to any IP-sharing agreements myself, even if the idea of this would let me open a factory over there sounded lucrative at the time) or to import technology from (particularly the kind that can be used to track you or do analyse your communications), I will leave for people better-qualified than me to judge...
Actually have a Huawei phone myself. It's a very decent bit of kit for the price I paid. But then, I'm nowhere near important enough to be worth spying upon. Incidentally, I saw the analysis of a survey of London-based students about their phones. Lots of people with still uncured Applemania. But a lot of the Chinese students were hypernationalist about Huawei. Not just saw it as better than Apple, but saw it as a source of pride and clearly (from their verbal responses) felt that Huawei was being persecuted, which had made them rally round it further.
It is interesting how the Farage party are clearly picking up the pissed off Leave vote, but the Lib Dems on their specialist subject still can't get anything going from pissed off Remain vote.
Yup, I think the ones to watch are the Greens. Remainiacs will be tempted to rally around the apparent leader in the hope of beating Farage, and the rightly or wrongly the Greens are inoffensive to a much wider range of voters than the post-coalition LibDems. A good party political broadcast and a bit of self-sustaining media buzz and they could come first.
On an entirely unassociated point, if you Google "top 10 free VPNs" you may gather information on how to obtain a free virtual private network. If you do not have the tech ability to do so, you may wish to consult with your geeky teenage nephew who is really into IT and doesn't come out of his room much.
I wouldn't trust a free VPN....at the very least they sell your info.
However, for £30 a year you can get a trusted no-log one, and in this day and age you are an idiot to access any wifi outside your own home without using one.
I see the purchase / use of a VPN in the same way as buying anti-virus / firewall software.
Do you have a recommendation?
Personally, I have used Private Internet Access for the past 5 years and always had a solid experience, but back when I picked them there was a lot less competition for the retail user. With them you can have up to 5 devices connected at the same time under one subscription.
However, I believe they have recently raised their prices quite considerably (but I have a multi-year package with them so I haven't been affected).
I see a lot of adverts for NordVPN, IpVanish, ExpressVPN, but I honestly don't know how good they are.
I think regardless of legal ownership, is there any serious dispute that if the Chinese government really wanted Huawei to do something, it would get done?
Well its the law (in China)....but we still appear like we are going to buy all their equipment for 5G, despite this and the fact that security experts say their software engineering is like something from 20 years ago.
I'm curious whether China is ever really going to get on board with the whole Rule of Law thing - let alone anything approaching western-style democracy. The argument that wealthier better-educated populace and the importance of legally-protected property rights would lead to a more transparent and fairer legal system definitely sounded stronger (to me at least) than the idea that political change would automatically follow economic change, but it still seems there's a lot of murky stuff over there and it isn't a country you want to mess around with vested interests. Whether this is an ideal location either to export technology to (don't think I'd want to sign up to any IP-sharing agreements myself, even if the idea of this would let me open a factory over there sounded lucrative at the time) or to import technology from (particularly the kind that can be used to track you or do analyse your communications), I will leave for people better-qualified than me to judge...
Actually have a Huawei phone myself. It's a very decent bit of kit for the price I paid. But then, I'm nowhere near important enough to be worth spying upon. Incidentally, I saw the analysis of a survey of London-based students about their phones. Lots of people with still uncured Applemania. But a lot of the Chinese students were hypernationalist about Huawei. Not just saw it as better than Apple, but saw it as a source of pride and clearly (from their verbal responses) felt that Huawei was being persecuted, which had made them rally round it further.
Mobile phones in china are really a front end to wechat - that's why Apple is currently doing rather less well than they previously were - the operating system and phone doesn't matter - running the wechat app does.
On an entirely unassociated point, if you Google "top 10 free VPNs" you may gather information on how to obtain a free virtual private network. If you do not have the tech ability to do so, you may wish to consult with your geeky teenage nephew who is really into IT and doesn't come out of his room much.
I wouldn't trust a free VPN....at the very least they sell your info.
However, for £30 a year you can get a trusted no-log one, and in this day and age you are an idiot to access any wifi outside your own home without using one.
I see the purchase / use of a VPN in the same way as buying anti-virus / firewall software.
Do you have a recommendation?
Personally, I have used Private Internet Access for the past 5 years and always had a solid experience, but back when I picked them there was a lot less competition for the retail user. With them you can have up to 5 devices connected at the same time under one subscription.
However, I believe they have recently raised their prices quite considerably (but I have a multi-year package with them so I haven't been affected).
I see a lot of adverts for NordVPN, IpVanish, ExpressVPN, but I honestly don't know how good they are.
I think regardless of legal ownership, is there any serious dispute that if the Chinese government really wanted Huawei to do something, it would get done?
Well its the law (in China)....but we still appear like we are going to buy all their equipment for 5G, despite this and the fact that security experts say their software engineering is like something from 20 years ago.
I'm curious whether China is ever really going to get on board with the whole Rule of Law thing - let alone anything approaching western-style democracy. The argument that wealthier better-educated populace and the importance of legally-protected property rights would lead to a more transparent and fairer legal system definitely sounded stronger (to me at least) than the idea that political change would automatically follow economic change, but it still seems there's a lot of murky stuff over there and it isn't a country you want to mess around with vested interests. Whether this is an ideal location either to export technology to (don't think I'd want to sign up to any IP-sharing agreements myself, even if the idea of this would let me open a factory over there sounded lucrative at the time) or to import technology from (particularly the kind that can be used to track you or do analyse your communications), I will leave for people better-qualified than me to judge...
Actually have a Huawei phone myself. It's a very decent bit of kit for the price I paid. But then, I'm nowhere near important enough to be worth spying upon. Incidentally, I saw the analysis of a survey of London-based students about their phones. Lots of people with still uncured Applemania. But a lot of the Chinese students were hypernationalist about Huawei. Not just saw it as better than Apple, but saw it as a source of pride and clearly (from their verbal responses) felt that Huawei was being persecuted, which had made them rally round it further.
I don't think Huawei phones are really the concern (although I wouldn't have one if I was somebody really important). But yes they are up there these days, with I would say Samsung still being better due to the fact they make the best screens (in fact they make virtually all the screens these days, but keep the best ones for their own products).
The major concern is having their 5G kit running the worlds next gen internet. At the moment, they have kit in the 4G network, but apparently it is all minor stuff that doesn't have access / knowledge of the core infrastructure.
An academic I know is a proper green type, refuses to take foreign holidays himself and won't even travel much beyond locally for the ones he takes in the UK. (Which seems a bit much to me - would taking the kids a few hundred miles on an electric railway really destroy the planet? Could always donate a few quid in "carbon offsets" if you were worried it wasn't wind-powered that day. Or wait to go on holiday until the weather forecast says it's going to be windy if you're that insistent.) I know he's taking these things seriously as he has blogged about taking them for summer holidays in nearby Luton instead. Reckon Sean F would approve. Sean T maybe not so much...
Do they never attend any foreign conferences? Without being funny, surely they aren't doing their job properly if they are foregoing such trips?
I've seen people present via Skype. I am still surprised at how few meetings occur at high level over internet calls. I understand we are social beings, and that all business is run on the grease that is how well you get on with Bob, but at the end of the day everything breaks if we don't deal with the problem, so the annoyance of not flying and getting used to video conferences is less annoying then the world not being fit for human civilisation.
I work with clients on every inhabited continent, working almost entirely from my home office. But then I'm not at a senior level.
I do wonder why people I know who have gone into senior levels of management at multinational firms are constantly jetting all over the world but mostly only getting to see the boring bits, making big strategy calls while travel-fatigued and eternally jet-lagged. Even forgetting the environment for a minute, it seems sub-optimal for their health, wellbeing, relationships, family life and decision-making capabilities. I appreciate there are advantages to being able to see the reality of things "on the ground", but on a brief flying visit I suspect they get shown a lot of Potemkin villages.
3. The Locals. This is the real problem for him. Much anger will be vented at the Locals. Here, I think, Labour will do very well and the Conservatives will be taken to the cleaners. This may lance the boil, but it will certainly distract from the EU elections.
If the locals are a problem it will be because media attention will be on the parties (presumably Labour, Lib Dems and possibly UKIP after all) that do well and the party that doesn't (presumably the Conservatives). Therefore no airtime for Farage.
I don't think there's any chance of it lancing the boil for the Tories. If anything, if they receive a real drubbing, then it will make the EU elections even worse. Not much enthusiasm to vote for a bunch of losers, so the enthusiasm gap will only widen.
It's a perfect storm for the Tories. I can't think of much that would make it worse. Perhaps a botched Cabinet coup in between the locals and EU elections would do so.
The Tories are likely to win the locals regardless, they are only in the Shires, London, Scotland and Wales are not up and less than 20% of wards have a UKIP or Brexit Party candidate.
The European elections are a different story
The media will likely (and rightly in my view) concentrate on councillors and councils gained and lost and the National Equivalent vote share. The Tories will likely lose on all those measures.
It is interesting how the Farage party are clearly picking up the pissed off Leave vote, but the Lib Dems on their specialist subject still can't get anything going from pissed off Remain vote.
Kudos to the Peoples' Vote for swiftly publishing a result which can not be to their liking.
I think the rise in support from 45% to 49% for pro-Leave parties has been driven largely by a rise in certainty to vote among Leave voters from 43% to 50%.
Excellent news. Any other conclusion would have had a chilling effect on comment and criticism in Scotland. Hopefully this will discourage similar nonsense in the future.
Brexit Party plus Tories plus UKIP are on 49%, Labour plus Greens plus LDs plus CUK on 47%.
That is the same arithmetic as I did. Makes one wonder about all this polling showing remain ahead doesn't it?
Don't forget the SNP and Plaid. A more realistic way of looking at the deal is: * Brexit deal - 37% * Brexit no deal - 34% * Remain - 25% (+whatever the SNP and PC get) Where do the deal votes go if the only option is one of the other two? * Labour presumably breaks Remain * Tory presumably breaks No Deal A country divided
What is the point of protest if it doesn't impact life? The point of their protest is to cause disruption, and by disrupting normality make people pay attention to the issue. You cannot sanitise protest. You cannot make the revolution conform to normality. Unfortunately we have left things quite late in the day, so instead of a steady shift to a more sustainable economy over decades, we have to make many decisions over a short period of time. That will be unpleasant. As will the inevitable effects of climate change that are already underway.
It is a mitigation process. And, again, unfortunately, modernity kinda has to stop to deal with it. All the hot takes being like "you'll never convince people to save the planet if it means eating less meat or not flying as much" don't understand a) that modernity is part of the problem, so actually those aren't options and b) you won't be able to fly or eat a cow burger in the post apocalyptic wasteland we leave the earth as if we don't deal with climate change.
I take those points, but I don't mean sanitize it. Definitely not. It would still be a massive event if large numbers of people gathered in a safe designated space in, say, Hyde Park to protest an issue. What I think might be happening here is people taking inspiration from those Yellow Vests in France. The idea that to achieve a goal you need to get down and dirty on the streets. There's a romance to that, no question, but I have to be honest and say that I am not keen. Watching on the TV is one thing, I like that, but being stuck on a bus in Marble Arch with my bladder making its presence felt is quite another. Perhaps it's partly an age thing. The bladder certainly is.
It is interesting how the Farage party are clearly picking up the pissed off Leave vote, but the Lib Dems on their specialist subject still can't get anything going from pissed off Remain vote.
Kudos to the Peoples' Vote for swiftly publishing a result which can not be to their liking.
I think the rise in support from 45% to 49% for pro-Leave parties has been driven largely by a rise in certainty to vote among Leave voters from 43% to 50%.
I think the pollsters are in the dark to some extent on turnout because this will be unlike any European election we've seen before.
Brexit Party plus Tories plus UKIP are on 49%, Labour plus Greens plus LDs plus CUK on 47%.
By my reckoning if Lab drops off just a tad more then Greens start to win seats in places like E Mids.
Have I done the maths correctly?
Greens were slightly ahead of LDs in 2014 in the EM, so are the recommended Tactical vote for Remainers here. I am quite sympathetic to the Greens so quite willing.
If Lab were to come out with a Brexit policy that I could back*, then they would probably would be a better option to destroy the Tories, and keep the Brexit party to a minimum.
*CU plus SM alignment on environmental, agricultural, consumer and employment issues, backed with a #peoplesvote.
3. The Locals. This is the real problem for him. Much anger will be vented at the Locals. Here, I think, Labour will do very well and the Conservatives will be taken to the cleaners. This may lance the boil, but it will certainly distract from the EU elections.
If the locals are a problem it will be because media attention will be on the parties (presumably Labour, Lib Dems and possibly UKIP after all) that do well and the party that doesn't (presumably the Conservatives). Therefore no airtime for Farage.
I don't think there's any chance of it lancing the boil for the Tories. If anything, if they receive a real drubbing, then it will make the EU elections even worse. Not much enthusiasm to vote for a bunch of losers, so the enthusiasm gap will only widen.
It's a perfect storm for the Tories. I can't think of much that would make it worse. Perhaps a botched Cabinet coup in between the locals and EU elections would do so.
The Tories are likely to win the locals regardless, they are only in the Shires, London, Scotland and Wales are not up and less than 20% of wards have a UKIP or Brexit Party candidate.
The European elections are a different story
The media will likely (and rightly in my view) concentrate on councillors and councils gained and lost and the National Equivalent vote share. The Tories will likely lose on all those measures.
Obviously, the Conservatives will suffer a net loss of seats.
In terms of NEV share I expect that Labour and the Conservatives will be close to level.
It is interesting how the Farage party are clearly picking up the pissed off Leave vote, but the Lib Dems on their specialist subject still can't get anything going from pissed off Remain vote.
Indeed (although you did use my unfavorite trope, the "it is interesting" one). However I do have to ask: where is the SNP?
What is the point of protest if it doesn't impact life? The point of their protest is to cause disruption, and by disrupting normality make people pay attention to the issue. You cannot sanitise protest. You cannot make the revolution conform to normality. Unfortunately we have left things quite late in the day, so instead of a steady shift to a more sustainable economy over decades, we have to make many decisions over a short period of time. That will be unpleasant. As will the inevitable effects of climate change that are already underway.
It is a mitigation process. And, again, unfortunately, modernity kinda has to stop to deal with it. All the hot takes being like "you'll never convince people to save the planet if it means eating less meat or not flying as much" don't understand a) that modernity is part of the problem, so actually those aren't options and b) you won't be able to fly or eat a cow burger in the post apocalyptic wasteland we leave the earth as if we don't deal with climate change.
I take those points, but I don't mean sanitize it. Definitely not. It would still be a massive event if large numbers of people gathered in a safe designated space in, say, Hyde Park to protest an issue. What I think might be happening here is people taking inspiration from those Yellow Vests in France. The idea that to achieve a goal you need to get down and dirty on the streets. There's a romance to that, no question, but I have to be honest and say that I am not keen. Watching on the TV is one thing, I like that, but being stuck on a bus in Marble Arch with my bladder making its presence felt is quite another. Perhaps it's partly an age thing. The bladder certainly is.
Disrupting public transport seems quite stupid for environmental protestors, cars and planes less so.
Brexit Party plus Tories plus UKIP are on 49%, Labour plus Greens plus LDs plus CUK on 47%.
That is the same arithmetic as I did. Makes one wonder about all this polling showing remain ahead doesn't it?
Don't forget the SNP and Plaid. A more realistic way of looking at the deal is: * Brexit deal - 37% * Brexit no deal - 34% * Remain - 25% (+whatever the SNP and PC get) Where do the deal votes go if the only option is one of the other two? * Labour presumably breaks Remain * Tory presumably breaks No Deal A country divided
A country divided (and bored stupid) we undoubtedly are. I also agree that there would be a tendency in the major parties in the manner you indicate. I just struggle to see a high 50%+ number for remain. It very much seems to depend on how you ask the question.
It is interesting how the Farage party are clearly picking up the pissed off Leave vote, but the Lib Dems on their specialist subject still can't get anything going from pissed off Remain vote.
Indeed (although you did use my unfavorite trope, the "it is interesting" one). However I do have to ask: where is the SNP?
I know some people involved in Extinction Rebellion. Direct Action and disruption - even deliberately getting arrested - was most explicitly the point. They weren't interested in speechifying or even getting favourable media coverage. They want to be a pain in the backside and stop everyday life rolling along, because they see our everyday life as unsustainable and harmful and reckon we all need to be reminded just how fragile it is.
OK, I see. Like a strike then, in a sense. The more painful it is the more likely you are to prevail. That is indeed often the case. But I'm not sure it works here. Hearts and minds need to be won.
Mobile phones in china are really a front end to wechat - that's why Apple is currently doing rather less well than they previously were - the operating system and phone doesn't matter - running the wechat app does.
Finding ways of talking to Chinese clients online (or HK clients who are off travelling in the mainland) is actually a complete pain in the backside for me.
I don't think Huawei phones are really the concern (although I wouldn't have one if I was somebody really important). ..
The major concern is having their 5G kit running the worlds next gen internet. At the moment, they have kit in the 4G network, but apparently it is all minor stuff that doesn't have access / knowledge of the core infrastructure.
Yes didn't mean to conflate the phones with the infrastructure issue, though again if I were doing something more important or more sensitive then I don't think their phone would be a good choice! My very rough understanding is that a lot of Huawei's 5G kit they're trying to flog is intended to be pretty central stuff and therefore more of a risk; what I don't understand is the extent to which it can be safely isolated. Saw it suggested somewhere that e.g. the area around Westminster might not use Huawei kit, but if neighbouring areas - or even neighbouring countries - do, then how secure is stuff?
Brexit Party plus Tories plus UKIP are on 49%, Labour plus Greens plus LDs plus CUK on 47%.
With the issue having its profile raised by these current climate change protests, it has the scope to peel off some Labour support towards the Greens, in the Euros at least.
I know some people involved in Extinction Rebellion. Direct Action and disruption - even deliberately getting arrested - was most explicitly the point. They weren't interested in speechifying or even getting favourable media coverage. They want to be a pain in the backside and stop everyday life rolling along, because they see our everyday life as unsustainable and harmful and reckon we all need to be reminded just how fragile it is.
OK, I see. Like a strike then, in a sense. The more painful it is the more likely you are to prevail. That is indeed often the case. But I'm not sure it works here. Hearts and minds need to be won.
They've certainly made a splash in the last year, it will be interesting to see if things go beyond the disruptive.
3. The Locals. This is the real problem for him. Much anger will be vented at the Locals. Here, I think, Labour will do very well and the Conservatives will be taken to the cleaners. This may lance the boil, but it will certainly distract from the EU elections.
If the locals are a problem it will be because media attention will be on the parties (presumably Labour, Lib Dems and possibly UKIP after all) that do well and the party that doesn't (presumably the Conservatives). Therefore no airtime for Farage.
I don't think there's any chance of it lancing the boil for the Tories. If anything, if they receive a real drubbing, then it will make the EU elections even worse. Not much enthusiasm to vote for a bunch of losers, so the enthusiasm gap will only widen.
It's a perfect storm for the Tories. I can't think of much that would make it worse. Perhaps a botched Cabinet coup in between the locals and EU elections would do so.
The Tories are likely to win the locals regardless, they are only in the Shires, London, Scotland and Wales are not up and less than 20% of wards have a UKIP or Brexit Party candidate.
The European elections are a different story
The media will likely (and rightly in my view) concentrate on councillors and councils gained and lost and the National Equivalent vote share. The Tories will likely lose on all those measures.
Sure, but you can still say you won. Just like Labour did in Newport West.
(Actually, in the Leavier district councils I fancy the Conservatives to hold most of what they have. The more Remainy areas will be a challenge.)
Brexit Party plus Tories plus UKIP are on 49%, Labour plus Greens plus LDs plus CUK on 47%.
That is the same arithmetic as I did. Makes one wonder about all this polling showing remain ahead doesn't it?
Don't forget the SNP and Plaid. A more realistic way of looking at the deal is: * Brexit deal - 37% * Brexit no deal - 34% * Remain - 25% (+whatever the SNP and PC get) Where do the deal votes go if the only option is one of the other two? * Labour presumably breaks Remain * Tory presumably breaks No Deal A country divided
A country divided (and bored stupid) we undoubtedly are. I also agree that there would be a tendency in the major parties in the manner you indicate. I just struggle to see a high 50%+ number for remain. It very much seems to depend on how you ask the question.
Yep - what I see most of all is that a significant minority really want to leave the EU at any cost and a smaller, but still significant, minority really don't. Put together, though, they are a majority. So we are stuck with this for years to come.
What was it David Cameron said about the choice between him and Ed Miliband?
Brexit Party plus Tories plus UKIP are on 49%, Labour plus Greens plus LDs plus CUK on 47%.
That is the same arithmetic as I did. Makes one wonder about all this polling showing remain ahead doesn't it?
Don't forget the SNP and Plaid. A more realistic way of looking at the deal is: * Brexit deal - 37% * Brexit no deal - 34% * Remain - 25% (+whatever the SNP and PC get) Where do the deal votes go if the only option is one of the other two? * Labour presumably breaks Remain * Tory presumably breaks No Deal A country divided
A country divided (and bored stupid) we undoubtedly are. I also agree that there would be a tendency in the major parties in the manner you indicate. I just struggle to see a high 50%+ number for remain. It very much seems to depend on how you ask the question.
I don't think that you can assign Tory voters to the Leave column. Those not switching to Farage are likely to be disproportionally Remain sympathisers.
I agree that a #peoplesvote is likely to be a coin toss. The irony is that it is probably Leavers that are most likely to benefit from a double or quits vote. The status quo is drifting away from those sunlight uplands of Brexit.
I know some people involved in Extinction Rebellion. Direct Action and disruption - even deliberately getting arrested - was most explicitly the point. They weren't interested in speechifying or even getting favourable media coverage. They want to be a pain in the backside and stop everyday life rolling along, because they see our everyday life as unsustainable and harmful and reckon we all need to be reminded just how fragile it is.
OK, I see. Like a strike then, in a sense. The more painful it is the more likely you are to prevail. That is indeed often the case. But I'm not sure it works here. Hearts and minds need to be won.
It doesn't work, because they can never be more than a nuisance, rather than bringing the country to a standstill. They aren't the NUM or T&GWU of old. So, the only way to win, is to win people over, and these antics will alienate people.
Climate Change Protestors: Why bother strapping yourselves to clean electric trains when there were dirty diesel trains available? Unless the idea is to make yourselves and your movement look like absolute spanners.
It is interesting how the Farage party are clearly picking up the pissed off Leave vote, but the Lib Dems on their specialist subject still can't get anything going from pissed off Remain vote.
Indeed (although you did use my unfavorite trope, the "it is interesting" one). However I do have to ask: where is the SNP?
This is what happens when you have a remain prime minister trying to appease the EU
She's trying to get something through parliament, being more aggressive with the EU would not make that any easier since those she would gain would be countered by those she would lose.
The idea this is all because May is a remainer is one of those far too neat explanations that are comforting but not plausible in itself.
What is the point of protest if it doesn't impact life? The point of their protest is to cause disruption, and by disrupting normality make people pay attention to the issue. You cannot sanitise protest. You cannot make the revolution conform to normality. Unfortunately we have left things quite late in the day, so instead of a steady shift to a more sustainable economy over decades, we have to make many decisions over a short period of time. That will be unpleasant. As will the inevitable effects of climate change that are already underway.
It is a mitigation process. And, again, unfortunately, modernity kinda has to stop to deal with it. All the hot takes being like "you'll never convince people to save the planet if it means eating less meat or not flying as much" don't understand a) that modernity is part of the problem, so actually those aren't options and b) you won't be able to fly or eat a cow burger in the post apocalyptic wasteland we leave the earth as if we don't deal with climate change.
I take those points, but I don't mean sanitize it. Definitely not. It would still be a massive event if large numbers of people gathered in a safe designated space in, say, Hyde Park to protest an issue. What I think might be happening here is people taking inspiration from those Yellow Vests in France. The idea that to achieve a goal you need to get down and dirty on the streets. There's a romance to that, no question, but I have to be honest and say that I am not keen. Watching on the TV is one thing, I like that, but being stuck on a bus in Marble Arch with my bladder making its presence felt is quite another. Perhaps it's partly an age thing. The bladder certainly is.
If there is a designated protest space, it gets assimilated into the system of "how things work". If your argument is "how things work doesn't work" then how can you protest in the designated protest space? Yes, it may get a lot of people for the cause, but that isn't what protest is about. Protest is about becoming grit in the mill of daily life so that the system has to change either to remove you or to accommodate your position. For something as eminently reasonable as dealing with climate change, having the iron fist of the police state smash a protesting granny looks bad, so accommodation is what these people want.
This is also why I dislike the idea that ecoprotests are somehow similar to "fascists" who want to change things by force (not a comment you made, but something someone down thread said). Doing something about climate change is not equal to being a fascist, and neither are the tactics. These are the tactics of civil rights movements.
Brexit Party plus Tories plus UKIP are on 49%, Labour plus Greens plus LDs plus CUK on 47%.
That is the same arithmetic as I did. Makes one wonder about all this polling showing remain ahead doesn't it?
Don't forget the SNP and Plaid. A more realistic way of looking at the deal is: * Brexit deal - 37% * Brexit no deal - 34% * Remain - 25% (+whatever the SNP and PC get) Where do the deal votes go if the only option is one of the other two? * Labour presumably breaks Remain * Tory presumably breaks No Deal A country divided
A country divided (and bored stupid) we undoubtedly are. I also agree that there would be a tendency in the major parties in the manner you indicate. I just struggle to see a high 50%+ number for remain. It very much seems to depend on how you ask the question.
Yep - what I see most of all is that a significant minority really want to leave the EU at any cost and a smaller, but still significant, minority really don't. Put together, though, they are a majority. So we are stuck with this for years to come.
What was it David Cameron said about the choice between him and Ed Miliband?
That is just too awful to contemplate. I very much hope that once we reach a resolution, any resolution, it will slip back down the list of issues to where it belongs. I suspect myself that the majority who support one side or the other just have more important things to think about. The loons on both sides will bang on no doubt but we don't have to pay attention to them.
Climate Change Protestors: Why bother strapping yourselves to clean electric trains when there were dirty diesel trains available? Unless the idea is to make yourselves and your movement look like absolute spanners.
When they said they want to decarbonise by 2025 their stupidity became all too clear to see.
George Osborn is clearly terrified about this poll, hence him suggesting Labour need to back a 2nd ref to stop Farage. Labour would be unwise to do so however, European elections should not matter too much to them but a victory for the Brexit party would cause further chaos to the Tories. Fence sitting and remaining in friendly Brexit negotiations with the Tories over the summer is the most successful policy for Corbyn if he wishes to win the General Election, particularly as Lab are polling miles better than so-called 'remain parties'.
I know some people involved in Extinction Rebellion. Direct Action and disruption - even deliberately getting arrested - was most explicitly the point. They weren't interested in speechifying or even getting favourable media coverage. They want to be a pain in the backside and stop everyday life rolling along, because they see our everyday life as unsustainable and harmful and reckon we all need to be reminded just how fragile it is.
OK, I see. Like a strike then, in a sense. The more painful it is the more likely you are to prevail. That is indeed often the case. But I'm not sure it works here. Hearts and minds need to be won.
Multipronged strategy though - or at least multipronged movement, don't think that the wider perspective is under united strategic leadership. For the fluffier public-facing stuff you've got nature presenters on TV telling us how the planet is going to hell in a handcart, local recycling charities or beach plastic-pickers, environmental lessons in school. But at the other end of the spectrum, to stop us putting stuff to the back of our mind or thinking we're all "doing our bit" so it's okay, they feel there's a need for a "heavy gang" to push the viewpoint we need big, system-wide changes and we need them yesterday.
I don't know how well it will work, particularly bearing in mind the kind of counterblast it will inevitably generate, but bearing in mind this is a patchwork of highly interlinked groups, it's a mistake to look at the Extinction Rebellion protesters in isolation.
Brexit Party plus Tories plus UKIP are on 49%, Labour plus Greens plus LDs plus CUK on 47%.
That is the same arithmetic as I did. Makes one wonder about all this polling showing remain ahead doesn't it?
Don't forget the SNP and Plaid. A more realistic way of looking at the deal is: * Brexit deal - 37% * Brexit no deal - 34% * Remain - 25% (+whatever the SNP and PC get) Where do the deal votes go if the only option is one of the other two? * Labour presumably breaks Remain * Tory presumably breaks No Deal A country divided
A country divided (and bored stupid) we undoubtedly are. I also agree that there would be a tendency in the major parties in the manner you indicate. I just struggle to see a high 50%+ number for remain. It very much seems to depend on how you ask the question.
I don't think that you can assign Tory voters to the Leave column. Those not switching to Farage are likely to be disproportionally Remain sympathisers.
I agree that a #peoplesvote is likely to be a coin toss. The irony is that it is probably Leavers that are most likely to benefit from a double or quits vote. The status quo is drifting away from those sunlight uplands of Brexit.
It's a tendency in both main parties and the evidence, such as it is, seems to suggest that the polarisation is getting stronger. So more Tories are committed to Brexit, even if they voted remain and more Labour supporters to remain, even if they voted leave. Of course there are still high profile exceptions on either side.
YouGov also asked European Election intention if Labour supported a public vote: Brexit Party 26% Labour 23% Con 15% LD 10% GRE 8% CHUK 5%
Not much difference.
Of course not, they're positioning is such that 90% of members back that action anyway so not technically being there yet is viewed as irrelevant- Corbyn would be a fool to ignore that.
I wonder just how low UKIP will go - any chance they fold this year?
Brexit Party plus Tories plus UKIP are on 49%, Labour plus Greens plus LDs plus CUK on 47%.
That is the same arithmetic as I did. Makes one wonder about all this polling showing remain ahead doesn't it?
Don't forget the SNP and Plaid. A more realistic way of looking at the deal is: * Brexit deal - 37% * Brexit no deal - 34% * Remain - 25% (+whatever the SNP and PC get) Where do the deal votes go if the only option is one of the other two? * Labour presumably breaks Remain * Tory presumably breaks No Deal A country divided
A country divided (and bored stupid) we undoubtedly are. I also agree that there would be a tendency in the major parties in the manner you indicate. I just struggle to see a high 50%+ number for remain. It very much seems to depend on how you ask the question.
Yep - what I see most of all is that a significant minority really want to leave the EU at any cost and a smaller, but still significant, minority really don't. Put together, though, they are a majority. So we are stuck with this for years to come.
What was it David Cameron said about the choice between him and Ed Miliband?
That is just too awful to contemplate. I very much hope that once we reach a resolution, any resolution, it will slip back down the list of issues to where it belongs. I suspect myself that the majority who support one side or the other just have more important things to think about. The loons on both sides will bang on no doubt but we don't have to pay attention to them.
False hope I think. We're in the shit longterm now. I hope everyone has nappies stockpiled, metaphorically.
YouGov also asked European Election intention if Labour supported a public vote: Brexit Party 26% Labour 23% Con 15% LD 10% GRE 8% CHUK 5%
Not much difference.
Of course not, they're positioning is such that 90% of members back that action anyway so not technically being there yet is viewed as irrelevant- Corbyn would be a fool to ignore that.
I wonder just how low UKIP will go - any chance they fold this year?
They should pull their slate in the Euros and support Brexit. They are going to get hammered anyway, so might as well claim they are part of the 30-odd% vote.
The weird objections towards the BBC from this lot is up there with some of the stranger conspiracy theories out there. Sad to see Channel 4 get on board as their news coverage is thorough but increasingly hysterical and dictated by oddball voices on twitter.
On an entirely unassociated point, if you Google "top 10 free VPNs" you may gather information on how to obtain a free virtual private network. If you do not have the tech ability to do so, you may wish to consult with your geeky teenage nephew who is really into IT and doesn't come out of his room much.
I wouldn't trust a free VPN....at the very least they sell your info.
However, for £30 a year you can get a trusted no-log one, and in this day and age you are an idiot to access any wifi outside your own home without using one.
I see the purchase / use of a VPN in the same way as buying anti-virus / firewall software.
Do you have a recommendation?
I use PIA which is fine. I torrent everything as part of my one man war against the entertainment industry.
Brexit Party plus Tories plus UKIP are on 49%, Labour plus Greens plus LDs plus CUK on 47%.
That is the same arithmetic as I did. Makes one wonder about all this polling showing remain ahead doesn't it?
Don't forget the SNP and Plaid. A more realistic way of looking at the deal is: * Brexit deal - 37% * Brexit no deal - 34% * Remain - 25% (+whatever the SNP and PC get) Where do the deal votes go if the only option is one of the other two? * Labour presumably breaks Remain * Tory presumably breaks No Deal A country divided
A country divided (and bored stupid) we undoubtedly are. I also agree that there would be a tendency in the major parties in the manner you indicate. I just struggle to see a high 50%+ number for remain. It very much seems to depend on how you ask the question.
Yep - what I see most of all is that a significant minority really want to leave the EU at any cost and a smaller, but still significant, minority really don't. Put together, though, they are a majority. So we are stuck with this for years to come.
What was it David Cameron said about the choice between him and Ed Miliband?
That is just too awful to contemplate. I very much hope that once we reach a resolution, any resolution, it will slip back down the list of issues to where it belongs. I suspect myself that the majority who support one side or the other just have more important things to think about. The loons on both sides will bang on no doubt but we don't have to pay attention to them.
The point is that there is no resolution. WA or No Deal, this is just the end of the warm up, then the real negotiations begin.
That is the future of Brexit Britain, a trade policy requiring endless negotiation, not just with our main partners on the Continent, but also with the rest of the world. Those bored of Brexit are going to get a lot more bored!
Disrupting public transport seems quite stupid for environmental protestors, cars and planes less so.
My understanding is that the biggest lifestyle adjustment that an individual here in the UK can make to combat climate change is to stop eating meat.
And I do sense that this is happening. I can see a time in the near to medium future where the idea of consuming the flesh of dead animals will be seen as beyond the pale.
Ditto getting around the place in private lumps of metal fueled by toxins.
The Osmonds were ahead of their time on this latter point with their hit single Crazy Horses. Way back in the 70s that was.
Depressing though it is, all roads lead to a Corbyn government:
- If Brexit doesn't get delivered, the Conservative Party will be in such a bad state and so split that it will be in no position to fight an election in the next three years.
- If Brexit does happen, through a chaotic no-deal crash out, it will be even worse: all the above applies and in addition the disruption to the economy and to people's lives will be blamed on the party for a decade.
McDonnell and Milne of course realise this, which is why the talks with Labour will collapse.
Is there a way out? Yes there is, sort-of. It may not be possible for the Conservatives to avoid losing the next election, but it may be possible to choose when and how to lose it. And the best choice, or rather the least bad of several very bad choices, looks to me to lose an election before Brexit happens, thus landing Corbyn with the problem. That would at least give the opportunity for a fairly rapid regrouping in the hope of returning to power after one short and chaotic hard-left term, hopefully mitigated by a hung parliament.
Even that route, though, cannot work unless the Conservative Party stops banging on about Europe. If an early general election led to a referendum and/or revocation of Article 50, the big risk would be that the Conservative Party would turn into a single-issue 'rerun Brexit' party. That would be the end of it, and it would take years for an alternative centre-right party to emerge.
I hope I haven't depressed my centre-right friends here too much with this gloomy prognosis!
That should also make gloomy reading for the centre-left!
You are right.
It should make the centre left glow with embarrassment, as it was only them virtue signalling their ‘fairness’ that led to Corbyn being on the ballot to be leader
I wouldn't trust a free VPN....at the very least they sell your info.
However, for £30 a year you can get a trusted no-log one, and in this day and age you are an idiot to access any wifi outside your own home without using one.
I see the purchase / use of a VPN in the same way as buying anti-virus / firewall software.
Do you have a recommendation?
Personally, I have used Private Internet Access for the past 5 years and always had a solid experience, but back when I picked them there was a lot less competition for the retail user. With them you can have up to 5 devices connected at the same time under one subscription.
However, I believe they have recently raised their prices quite considerably (but I have a multi-year package with them so I haven't been affected).
I see a lot of adverts for NordVPN, IpVanish, ExpressVPN, but I honestly don't know how good they are.
ExpressVPN worked best for me amongst several options to get through the Great Firewall of China. The authorities are playing a not always very energetic cat and mouse game with VPN suppliers. They kind of know access to foreign websites is necessary. I use VPN because the Firewall slows internet access to a crawl for any website not on the Government whitelist. The sites I am accessing aren't necessarily controversial. And the Chinese government really hates Google. Google Search, Google Maps,Youtube and I think GMail are all banned.
I know some people involved in Extinction Rebellion. Direct Action and disruption - even deliberately getting arrested - was most explicitly the point. They weren't interested in speechifying or even getting favourable media coverage. They want to be a pain in the backside and stop everyday life rolling along, because they see our everyday life as unsustainable and harmful and reckon we all need to be reminded just how fragile it is.
OK, I see. Like a strike then, in a sense. The more painful it is the more likely you are to prevail. That is indeed often the case. But I'm not sure it works here. Hearts and minds need to be won.
It doesn't work, because they can never be more than a nuisance, rather than bringing the country to a standstill. They aren't the NUM or T&GWU of old. So, the only way to win, is to win people over, and these antics will alienate people.
This is also why I dislike the idea that ecoprotests are somehow similar to "fascists" who want to change things by force (not a comment you made, but something someone down thread said). Doing something about climate change is not equal to being a fascist, and neither are the tactics. These are the tactics of civil rights movements.
Civil rights direct action is justifiable because it is trying to overthrow a democratic deficit or change a repressive regime. These protests do not fall in to that category but are an attempt to impose a minority viewpoint by force (not violence as yet).
Disrupting public transport seems quite stupid for environmental protestors, cars and planes less so.
My understanding is that the biggest lifestyle adjustment that an individual here in the UK can make to combat climate change is to stop eating meat.
And I do sense that this is happening. I can see a time in the near to medium future where the idea of consuming the flesh of dead animals will be seen as beyond the pale.
Ditto getting around the place in private lumps of metal fueled by toxins.
The Osmonds were ahead of their time on this latter point with their hit single Crazy Horses. Way back in the 70s that was.
ICE will be banned centuries before meat.
Still think of those lovely Lithium mines devastating Bolivia so the smug wankers can have electric cars.
It doesn't work, because they can never be more than a nuisance, rather than bringing the country to a standstill. They aren't the NUM or T&GWU of old. So, the only way to win, is to win people over, and these antics will alienate people.
That is kind of what I'm getting at. I'm actually quite bullish on this climate issue. I think the problem is moving up the radar and it is going to be sorted. We will all be living in a far more green and sustainable way in a few decades from now. You can see it in the attitudes of younger people. They get it quite naturally, whereas people like me have to force ourselves.
It doesn't work, because they can never be more than a nuisance, rather than bringing the country to a standstill. They aren't the NUM or T&GWU of old. So, the only way to win, is to win people over, and these antics will alienate people.
That is kind of what I'm getting at. I'm actually quite bullish on this climate issue. I think the problem is moving up the radar and it is going to be sorted. We will all be living in a far more green and sustainable way in a few decades from now. You can see it in the attitudes of younger people. They get it quite naturally, whereas people like me have to force ourselves.
Climate will change irrespective of levels of CO2. Sorry it isn’t us controlling the planet.
I wouldn't trust a free VPN....at the very least they sell your info.
However, for £30 a year you can get a trusted no-log one, and in this day and age you are an idiot to access any wifi outside your own home without using one.
I see the purchase / use of a VPN in the same way as buying anti-virus / firewall software.
Do you have a recommendation?
Personally, I have used Private Internet Access for the past 5 years and always had a solid experience, but back when I picked them there was a lot less competition for the retail user. With them you can have up to 5 devices connected at the same time under one subscription.
However, I believe they have recently raised their prices quite considerably (but I have a multi-year package with them so I haven't been affected).
I see a lot of adverts for NordVPN, IpVanish, ExpressVPN, but I honestly don't know how good they are.
ExpressVPN worked best for me amongst several options to get through the Great Firewall of China. The authorities are playing a not always very energetic cat and mouse game with VPN suppliers. They kind of know access to foreign websites is necessary. I use VPN because the Firewall slows internet access to a crawl for any website not on the Government whitelist. The sites I am accessing aren't necessarily controversial. And the Chinese government really hates Google. Google Search, Google Maps,Youtube and I think GMail are all banned.
So you are saying that a corrupt, notionally communist dictatorship may be an attractive trade off after all?
This is also why I dislike the idea that ecoprotests are somehow similar to "fascists" who want to change things by force (not a comment you made, but something someone down thread said). Doing something about climate change is not equal to being a fascist, and neither are the tactics. These are the tactics of civil rights movements.
Civil rights direct action is justifiable because it is trying to overthrow a democratic deficit or change a repressive regime. These protests do not fall in to that category but are an attempt to impose a minority viewpoint by force (not violence as yet).
Right of non violent protest is a fundamental part of democracy. It is a form of consciousness raising to bring attention to a minority viewpoint, thereby facilitating change. The world has become too complacement about climate change.
I hope I haven't depressed my centre-right friends here too much with this gloomy prognosis!
As a non-Conservative, I could sit back and gloat at this gloomy assessment but I won't.
No party has a right to a monopoly of office - indeed it's often been detrimental to democracy where this has happened. The Conservatives sometimes do opposition well (Thatcher, Cameron) and sometimes badly (Hague, IDS, Howard) but occasionally it's a place they need to be to refresh, to renew, to rethink and to re-engage.
Being the "natural party of Government" doesn't mean always being in Government. There comes a point when the arguments for "a change" and the notion of being "out of touch with modern Britain" resonate. They did in the early 60s and by the end of the Thatcher/Major years. It's also good for the relationship between Government and Civil Service to have a change once in a while.
The Conservatives have been in Government for nearly a decade and by 2022 it will be 12 years. Of course, Conservatives concede the need for change but in Wilson and especially Blair they had Labour leaders who were essentially non-socialist politicians of the centre or centre-left. Conservatives might not have liked Blair but he didn't fundamentally transform society sweeping away the reforms of the Thatcher/Major years.
This time it's Jeremy Corbyn, an avowed socialist (as Kinnock was once) and Conservatives fear a term of Corbyn's policies will cause lasting socio-economic damage. Perhaps but Britain will be fine and of course it provides a rallying point for Opposition. The politician in me thinks the best way to get a Conservative landslide is to get a narrow Labour win next time and wait three or four years.
As HYUFD will assert there will always be space for a centre-right political party. That doesn't have to be the Conservative Party in its current form - there may be a re-alignment of the centre-right after a Labour victory or there may not but the possibility exists. One thing I do know is even if Labour win next time, the centre-right in some form will return to power sooner or later.
Comments
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1118480874893381632?s=20
The European elections are a different story
And, of course, the hundreds of thousands of votes the Greens received outside the South of England at the 2014 EP elections netted them precisely zero MEPs.
Actually have a Huawei phone myself. It's a very decent bit of kit for the price I paid. But then, I'm nowhere near important enough to be worth spying upon. Incidentally, I saw the analysis of a survey of London-based students about their phones. Lots of people with still uncured Applemania. But a lot of the Chinese students were hypernationalist about Huawei. Not just saw it as better than Apple, but saw it as a source of pride and clearly (from their verbal responses) felt that Huawei was being persecuted, which had made them rally round it further.
This intimate, in-depth look at Beyoncé's celebrated 2018 Coachella performance reveals the emotional road from creative concept to cultural movement.
For example take a 6 seat region (Yorkshire and Humberside)
Party 1 gets 52%
Parties 2-7 get 8% each.
Party 1 gets all 6 seats
If Party 2 gets 9% and Party 3 gets 7% then Party 1 only gets 5 seats with Party 2 getting one.
If Party 2 gets 11% and Party 3 gets 9% and the rest 7% then Party 1 only gets 4 seats with a seat each to 2 and 3.
So for the minority parties it is very important that their votes are not diluted.
However, I believe they have recently raised their prices quite considerably (but I have a multi-year package with them so I haven't been affected).
I see a lot of adverts for NordVPN, IpVanish, ExpressVPN, but I honestly don't know how good they are.
https://twitter.com/pauline4glasgow/status/1118483729717055488?s=21
Have I done the maths correctly?
The major concern is having their 5G kit running the worlds next gen internet. At the moment, they have kit in the 4G network, but apparently it is all minor stuff that doesn't have access / knowledge of the core infrastructure.
I do wonder why people I know who have gone into senior levels of management at multinational firms are constantly jetting all over the world but mostly only getting to see the boring bits, making big strategy calls while travel-fatigued and eternally jet-lagged. Even forgetting the environment for a minute, it seems sub-optimal for their health, wellbeing, relationships, family life and decision-making capabilities. I appreciate there are advantages to being able to see the reality of things "on the ground", but on a brief flying visit I suspect they get shown a lot of Potemkin villages.
I think the rise in support from 45% to 49% for pro-Leave parties has been driven largely by a rise in certainty to vote among Leave voters from 43% to 50%.
A more realistic way of looking at the deal is:
* Brexit deal - 37%
* Brexit no deal - 34%
* Remain - 25% (+whatever the SNP and PC get)
Where do the deal votes go if the only option is one of the other two?
* Labour presumably breaks Remain
* Tory presumably breaks No Deal
A country divided
If Lab were to come out with a Brexit policy that I could back*, then they would probably would be a better option to destroy the Tories, and keep the Brexit party to a minimum.
*CU plus SM alignment on environmental, agricultural, consumer and employment issues, backed with a #peoplesvote.
In terms of NEV share I expect that Labour and the Conservatives will be close to level.
(Actually, in the Leavier district councils I fancy the Conservatives to hold most of what they have. The more Remainy areas will be a challenge.)
What was it David Cameron said about the choice between him and Ed Miliband?
I agree that a #peoplesvote is likely to be a coin toss. The irony is that it is probably Leavers that are most likely to benefit from a double or quits vote. The status quo is drifting away from those sunlight uplands of Brexit.
The idea this is all because May is a remainer is one of those far too neat explanations that are comforting but not plausible in itself.
Brexit Party 26% Labour 23% Con 15% LD 10% GRE 8% CHUK 5%
Not much difference.
This is also why I dislike the idea that ecoprotests are somehow similar to "fascists" who want to change things by force (not a comment you made, but something someone down thread said). Doing something about climate change is not equal to being a fascist, and neither are the tactics. These are the tactics of civil rights movements.
Brexit 32.4 16.2 10.8 (3 seats)
Tory 17.09 8.545 (1 seat)
Lab 21.53 10.765 (2 seats)
Green 9.08
Lib Dem 7.82
UKIP 6
Change UK 6
Fence sitting and remaining in friendly Brexit negotiations with the Tories over the summer is the most successful policy for Corbyn if he wishes to win the General Election, particularly as Lab are polling miles better than so-called 'remain parties'.
I don't know how well it will work, particularly bearing in mind the kind of counterblast it will inevitably generate, but bearing in mind this is a patchwork of highly interlinked groups, it's a mistake to look at the Extinction Rebellion protesters in isolation.
https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1118484199240077312
I wonder just how low UKIP will go - any chance they fold this year?
North east looks like a straight Brexit party/Labour fight to me for the third seat (They'll get 1 each for sure)
Yawn......
That is the future of Brexit Britain, a trade policy requiring endless negotiation, not just with our main partners on the Continent, but also with the rest of the world. Those bored of Brexit are going to get a lot more bored!
And I do sense that this is happening. I can see a time in the near to medium future where the idea of consuming the flesh of dead animals will be seen as beyond the pale.
Ditto getting around the place in private lumps of metal fueled by toxins.
The Osmonds were ahead of their time on this latter point with their hit single Crazy Horses. Way back in the 70s that was.
Labour
11/10
Brexit Party
4/5
Hope noone is in too deep on Labour..
Who gets the other 11%?
Still think of those lovely Lithium mines devastating Bolivia so the smug wankers can have electric cars.
SNP/PC on 4%
https://twitter.com/netflixfilm/status/1117857893510832128?s=21
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/apr/16/more-than-100-people-arrested-in-london-climate-change-protests-extinction-rebellion
No party has a right to a monopoly of office - indeed it's often been detrimental to democracy where this has happened. The Conservatives sometimes do opposition well (Thatcher, Cameron) and sometimes badly (Hague, IDS, Howard) but occasionally it's a place they need to be to refresh, to renew, to rethink and to re-engage.
Being the "natural party of Government" doesn't mean always being in Government. There comes a point when the arguments for "a change" and the notion of being "out of touch with modern Britain" resonate. They did in the early 60s and by the end of the Thatcher/Major years. It's also good for the relationship between Government and Civil Service to have a change once in a while.
The Conservatives have been in Government for nearly a decade and by 2022 it will be 12 years. Of course, Conservatives concede the need for change but in Wilson and especially Blair they had Labour leaders who were essentially non-socialist politicians of the centre or centre-left. Conservatives might not have liked Blair but he didn't fundamentally transform society sweeping away the reforms of the Thatcher/Major years.
This time it's Jeremy Corbyn, an avowed socialist (as Kinnock was once) and Conservatives fear a term of Corbyn's policies will cause lasting socio-economic damage. Perhaps but Britain will be fine and of course it provides a rallying point for Opposition. The politician in me thinks the best way to get a Conservative landslide is to get a narrow Labour win next time and wait three or four years.
As HYUFD will assert there will always be space for a centre-right political party. That doesn't have to be the Conservative Party in its current form - there may be a re-alignment of the centre-right after a Labour victory or there may not but the possibility exists. One thing I do know is even if Labour win next time, the centre-right in some form will return to power sooner or later.