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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Plunging opinion polls are not the Conservatives’ biggest problem
Memo to Conservative Party:
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Meanwhile the Tiggers will continue to prove their heads are made of rubbber, and fail to make an impact due to confused messaging.
1) Stall until they can remove TMay
2) New leader runs on No Deal
3) New leader moves into Number 10, proclaims their intention to enact a glorious No Deal Brexit
4) Continuity Remainers defect, VONC passes
5) GE on a Renegotiate Or No Deal platform
6) Win majority against Corbyn, who despite everything is still not very good
7) Go to Brussels, be told to fuck off
8) Shrug
9) Pass TMay's deal
10) Rule until 2025
If we had a moderate, sensible and united opposition party it would surely be breaking all records for its polling lead right now?
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/apr/16/mastercard-court-ruling-paves-way-14bn-class-action
Off topic, a late April fool's I guess:
https://tinyurl.com/y6ts8gz8
The global financial system faces an existential threat from climate change and must take urgent steps to reform, the governors of the Bank of England and France’s central bank have warned, writing in the Guardian.
The heads of two of the world’s most influential central banks urged other financial regulators around the world to carry out climate change stress tests to spot any risks in the system, while also calling for more collaboration between nations on the issue. They warned that a “massive reallocation of capital” was necessary to prevent global warming above the 2°C maximum target set by the Paris climate agreement, with the banking system required to play a pivotal role.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/17/theresa-may-successor-tories-leadership-brexit
"There was no route to a united Conservative party in 2016 because none of the challenges confronting Britain were going to be resolved by leaving the EU. And in 2019, more Brexit is not a serious answer to any question that might be asked of a Tory leadership candidate."
"Conservatives cannot outbid Corbyn in public benefaction. If May promised every voter a holiday in Tenerife, Labour would offer to fly them to Elevenerife."
"The choice is between a difficult, honest conversation about the causes of public discontent and an easy, cynical campaign to distil the anger into electoral fuel and ignite it. It is clear which path a responsible party of government would take. But who, looking at the Tories now, sees such a party?"
However, it would perhaps provide the obsessives with a slightly different outlook if they spoke to normal people rather than existing in an echo chamber.
Come the next GE there will of course be those who are as obsessed with Brexit as the op but the vast majority will be focused on how their vote will directly affect their jobs and families.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_and_the_euro?wprov=sfti1
Only yesterday Corbyn made his latest populist foray into domestic politics, promising to abolish primary school testing, and this commitments are racking up.
I can’t remember the last time any Conservative talked about domestic policy. And it’s that which people will care about in a general election, whereas Brexit will be a hygiene factor.
Once done, they will be interested in a Government that can best raise the quality of life here in the UK.
So yes, they'll suffer in the short-term, but not as badly as some expect (?hope) and it won't be long before they'll be back.
Sadly.
There'll be some casualties along the way, of course, Boris being one of them.
Although regardless of the merits of getting rid of SATS, the most sensible solution to a number of problems in education would be the abolition of OFSTED and OFQUAL, neither of which serve any useful purpose and are now actively hindering good education and rigorous assessment.
Admittedly, that's partly due to the extraordinary lack of competence of the woman who has been consecutively given charge of them. But they were in a mess before, even if she somehow made it worse.
Getting rid of the DfE would do no harm either, given that would pay for a huge number of schools and it does nothing except provide employment for people who in my experience are barely literate imbeciles.
The populist appeal here is to banish all primary school testing in one full swoop, which were introduced to drive and raise standards in underperforming primary schools.
Teachers will love it - it reduces their workload and take pressure of accountability off them - and some parents who worry about their kids will too.
But, it will do nothing for teaching standards or quality in primary schools and, indeed, make it worse.
SATS are not used by anyone except OFSTED, and even they don't understand them. Private schools don't take them. Secondary schools don't use any data from them. So they are a very expensive and stressful waste of time.
Get rid. Makes no difference.
(Edit - and your final sentence is totally wrong. A broad and balanced curriculum after SATS get kyboshed would drive up standards, not the reverse.)
Arguing for none is not a credible position.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Alberta_general_election
https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1118041093415866370?s=19
Interfering with the referendum result required MPs to open Pandora’s box and, despite the promises made by those who went before them as well as themselves, they were unable to resist. Now all sorts of troubles have been unleashed that they lack the ability to deal with.
So getting rid of them would actually be a good way of eliminating producer interest.
Put it this way - how would you feel if the law society was run entirely by amateur magistrates?
The point, which both Alastair and the article made fairly persuasively, is that the Conservatives have been and continue to be consumed by Brexit to the exclusion of normal politics.
Voters haven’t suspended their desire for ‘a government that can best raise the quality of life’ in the interim, whereas this government gives every impression of having put any such project on hold.
If the WA had been voted through last month the FTA would have been wrapped up by 2020/2021, so it would have been ‘done’ in time for GE2022. Not that everyone would have been happy with it, of course.
But, I suspect that ship has sailed for good now.
I went to a school that experienced some child welfare issues, so I have a very different view to you on standards, inspections and transparency.
But it has proved utterly beyond the collective wit of the Conservative party. And has indeed destroyed any such concept.
I'd be prepared to spend quite a lot on that!
The Conservatives will continue to kick the can down the road. They will be led by the Cankicker-in-chief until her twelve month exemption from a VONC runs out and will then be replaced. The new Leader will continue to can-kick until the next election is due. Brexit? It will be repeatedly adjourned until everybody is bored stiff with it, and then quietly dropped. Normal politics will resume, and if they are lucky enough to be still facing Corbyn the Conservatives will get some kind of half-decent result. And why not? Normal people have been scared stiff of the prospect of Brexit, the fear of Venezuela will prove scarier.
This is what I am betting on.
It is fairly easy for motivated parents to assess schools by looking at their general ambience, talking to other parents and staff. Less motivated parents do much less of this, but are hardly likely to look at SATs either.
SATs are a product of pen pushers who can only understand numbers, and therefore must have numbers to look at.
While at the same time everything she says and does isn't being scrutinised with a view as to how it enhances or diminishes her leadership prospects.
It is an almost unique profile amongst Cons MPs so any successor I believe will have a much more difficult time than her and hence the thrust of the header is reinforced.
However the son and daughter-in-law who live in UK worried enormously about the SATs and whatever reports about their local schools and so far it doesn't seem to have made a lot of difference. That set of grandchildren are much younger, but both travel further to school and don't seem to have as many local friends.
However, what is the alternative? If you need to make a decision at any level, and you need a decision to be based on firm data, then you need that data. Poor data doesn't mean you should just stop collecting data; it just means you need to improve the data and methods of collection.
Not making decisions based on data can lead to all sorts of other problems.
I note on the radio last night that the Labour spokeswoman (I cannot remember her name) said there would still be data collected; it would just be in another form. Sadly she was rather vague in what the 'other form' would be ...
When it comes to elections, what you have to discern is the question that the voters are answering. In 2015, the question was "Do you want coalition Government with the LibDems to continue?" In 2017 "Do you want the Tories to have a massive majority?"
In 20??, it will be "Do you want Jeremy Corbyn as PM of a really left-wing Labour Government?" Some on the Left make the mistake of thinking that was the question the voters nearly answered with a "Yes!" in 2017.
I despair at the state of my party and when looking at Corbyn I will never forgive those in my party who open the door for him
My wife and I received an e mail from Paul Davies, Welsh conservative leader, inviting us to the Welsh spring conference on the 4th May, with the announcement that Boris will be the main speaker.
My wife said that she could not imagine spending anytime with Boris Johnson to which I endorsed her 100%
In the short term I think the Withdrawal Agreement will probably pass once a Customs Union wins a further series of indicative votes and is added to the Political Declaration. May will then go and there will be a VONC in the Government which will probably win given the DUP will vote against the Government. It is not impossible the DUP could make Corbyn PM without a general election to implement BINO but retain their influence. Corbyn would then be PM propped up by the SNP and LDs and TIG who will force him to a BINO agenda, if he gets in after an election or no election, while freed of all responsibilities the Tories can meanwhile have opposition almost all to themselves with Boris at Westminster level and Ruth Davidson at Holyrood attacking Corbyn and Sturgeon at every level
https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/1118418765409079296?s=21
I suspect your definition of barely literate imbeciles is 'people who disagree with me on some issues'.
I have no idea how or when this will be resolved and would expect a lot more can kicking. Corbyn will not be propped up by other parties. However, labour under another leader would and indeed labour under another leader could gain a majority
Failure to do this might be rather disastrous, as poor schools and teaching will not be detected.
I understand the reality is more complex: some schools may have factors (e.g. a higher-skilled intake, less children with educational difficulties) than others: but that does not mean that it should not be measured: just that the results need treating with some care.
How would the government, as currently constituted, function in response to an unforeseen crisis? Not well, I would wager, as they seem unable to agree on much.
Just one thing I want to quibble with atm, namely the term "negative feedback". In its usual context of control systems or electrical circuitry negative feedback is stabilising, but you want to say destabilising, so the correct term is positive feedback.
Although your incorrect usage is met quite often in casual use of the term nowadays, it still jars.
Enjoy!
She needs to resign. She is the obstacle now, and for any resolutuon whether car crash Brexit or revoke, she needs to be replaced.
The LDs would not prop up the Tories either
it's
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contraction
pronoun: it's
it is.
"it's my fault"
it has.
"it's been a hot day"
it was
Looks cut and shut in Burgon's favour if Guido's tweet is the main evidence for the claim.
My one prediction.
The lawyers are going to earn a lot of money out of this.
If you want to leave Farage or UKIP is the direction your vote is heading. And if you don't want to leave who would you vote for.