I remember the days when Alastair used to describe the EU as a second order problem. He was probably right then. What I do agree with in the thread header is that there are a significant number, probably still a minority, who are monomaniacal about it not just in the Conservative party but in the country. He is now one of them.
My guess, and it is only a guess, is that whatever the position is in the Tory party, obsession with Brexit is still a minority pursuit in the country. Most people who mention it are bored to tears with it, exasperated with our politicians of all persuasions and just want it to go away one way or another. Many, indeed most, that I speak to are long past caring how it goes away.
My guess is that the government is currently being punished for not managing to make Brexit go away. That is likely to show up strongly in the pointless Euro elections but, just as May found to her cost in 2017, the next election will not be about Brexit but about the stuff people actually care about.
The Tories have problems, no question. They are deeply divided, they have spent months being incredibly rude to and about each other, they have dug deep holes escaping from which is going to be both difficult and undignified. But it is too soon to write them off. As the good book says, this too will pass.
I remember the days when Alastair used to describe the EU as a second order problem. He was probably right then. What I do agree with in the thread header is that there are a significant number, probably still a minority, who are monomaniacal about it not just in the Conservative party but in the country. He is now one of them.
My guess, and it is only a guess, is that whatever the position is in the Tory party, obsession with Brexit is still a minority pursuit in the country. Most people who mention it are bored to tears with it, exasperated with our politicians of all persuasions and just want it to go away one way or another. Many, indeed most, that I speak to are long past caring how it goes away.
My guess is that the government is currently being punished for not managing to make Brexit go away. That is likely to show up strongly in the pointless Euro elections but, just as May found to her cost in 2017, the next election will not be about Brexit but about the stuff people actually care about.
The Tories have problems, no question. They are deeply divided, they have spent months being incredibly rude to and about each other, they have dug deep holes escaping from which is going to be both difficult and undignified. But it is too soon to write them off. As the good book says, this too will pass.
The opinion polls showing that people identify much more strongly with their Brexit position than with a party suggest you are wrong about voter priorities.
Among the things that will pass some day is the Conservative party. It doesn’t have to survive this catastrophe and it richly deserves not to.
I think their biggest problem is what do they stand for? Defence? Not really, they believe in trident but that's about it Law and order? Clearly not given police cuts Low tax? Vat etc suggests this isn't top of the list anymore Austerity? Is already on its way out meaning..... Fiscal probity? We dont run anywhere near a surplus so no Social conservatism? No, they are desperate to appear woke on all matters They are basically not labour and support crapping on those with disability and have a sizable 'patrician' caucus who feel they werd born to rule
A pillar of salt and at last its crumbling away. Same for the labour party of course.
Time for change. Time for Change. Shame Bout their Brexit stance
The Conservatives have clearly run out of steam, and ordinarily, would be heading for defeat. But, Labour are just as heavily disliked by the public, and so the result of the next election is unpredictable.
On topic, an excellent piece from Alastair that I agree with pretty much throughout, until the final (but rather crucial) two paragraphs.
Kicking the can on Brexit risks simply a drawn-out death rather than a swift one. Worse, it probably loses any remnant of control of the process as there will ultimately be a resolution and if the government can't deliver it, then the EU or parliament or the public will - and those who don't like it will still blame the government not only for not having delivered a Christmas unicorn but also for not even trying.
Besides, a new leader will arrive with both confidence and commitments. They will try to resolve Brexit because they'll have promised that they'll do so and because they'll believe that they can do so. Freed, perhaps, from some of the constraints on May, they might even be right, though that almost certainly implies a No Deal outcome. Parliament has been successful in preventing that so far because May has been reluctant to push it. It might find it harder to impose that policy on a PM more willing to countenance it (and they dynamics of a Tory leadership context before Brexit would surely demand that the winner was openly prepared to countenance it), as No Deal remains the legal default.
The answer to other conclusion is simple. Alastair focuses his piece entirely on the Tories, which is fair enough in terms of where the government is going. However, a future GE will be a choice between alternatives. Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott and Burgon remain powerful incentives to back the best available alternative to keep them out of power. It's no silver bullet that the Tories can rely on but the (or many of the) disaffected ex-Tory voters are nonetheless ex-Tory voters precisely because of a fear of Labour and that fear still has force. It might be a bit of a crappy reason but it is a reason all the same.
I remember the days when Alastair used to describe the EU as a second order problem. He was probably right then. What I do agree with in the thread header is that there are a significant number, probably still a minority, who are monomaniacal about it not just in the Conservative party but in the country. He is now one of them.
My guess, and it is only a guess, is that whatever the position is in the Tory party, obsession with Brexit is still a minority pursuit in the country. Most people who mention it are bored to tears with it, exasperated with our politicians of all persuasions and just want it to go away one way or another. Many, indeed most, that I speak to are long past caring how it goes away.
My guess is that the government is currently being punished for not managing to make Brexit go away. That is likely to show up strongly in the pointless Euro elections but, just as May found to her cost in 2017, the next election will not be about Brexit but about the stuff people actually care about.
The Tories have problems, no question. They are deeply divided, they have spent months being incredibly rude to and about each other, they have dug deep holes escaping from which is going to be both difficult and undignified. But it is too soon to write them off. As the good book says, this too will pass.
The opinion polls showing that people identify much more strongly with their Brexit position than with a party suggest you are wrong about voter priorities.
Among the things that will pass some day is the Conservative party. It doesn’t have to survive this catastrophe and it richly deserves not to.
The Conservative Party deserved to disappear years ago (as did Labour) but the voters are remarkably forgiving.
I think their biggest problem is what do they stand for? Defence? Not really, they believe in trident but that's about it Law and order? Clearly not given police cuts Low tax? Vat etc suggests this isn't top of the list anymore Austerity? Is already on its way out meaning..... Fiscal probity? We dont run anywhere near a surplus so no Social conservatism? No, they are desperate to appear woke on all matters They are basically not labour and support crapping on those with disability and have a sizable 'patrician' caucus who feel they werd born to rule
A pillar of salt and at last its crumbling away. Same for the labour party of course.
Time for change. Time for Change. Shame Bout their Brexit stance
A lot of people have been saying for a long time that both main parties aren't really fit for purpose anymore. Their main reason for being is being a buffer to the other party.
Now a faultline (Brexit) has developed on a different line than the old standard left/right, it's no wonder that both parties have splintered.
Worse for the tories right now of course, as they're in power.
I deplore government by referendum, but circumstances may leave us with no choice but to accept another wretched plebiscite. Should the question be resolved in favour of REMAIN far thinking conservatives (who have always excelled at adapt and survive) need to think about how the conservative party might reinvent itself as a pro-European party.
Thus cementing the party's final slide into oblivion. I am afraid this kind of thinking is 'wrong sort of voter' territory.
Not really. There is a big gap in the market for a centre-right pro-business pro-competition smaller-state Remain-but-not-federalise fiscally-prudent political party. Indeed, shorn of the Eurosceptic nutcases, it might be quite popular.
I deplore government by referendum, but circumstances may leave us with no choice but to accept another wretched plebiscite. Should the question be resolved in favour of REMAIN far thinking conservatives (who have always excelled at adapt and survive) need to think about how the conservative party might reinvent itself as a pro-European party.
Thus cementing the party's final slide into oblivion. I am afraid this kind of thinking is 'wrong sort of voter' territory.
Not really. There is a big gap in the market for a centre-right pro-business pro-competition smaller-state Remain-but-not-federalise fiscally-prudent political party. Indeed, shorn of the Eurosceptic nutcases, it might be quite popular.
No where near as big as you think. It is a recipe for perpetual irrelevance.
Theresa May can rescue the Conservatives by kicking the can not just down the road but into the long grass.
She must do what she (and Cameron before her) should have done at the outset, and set up a Commission to find an optimum Brexit, and have a 2-year extension of Article 50.
Leave anger can be assuaged by stuffing the Commission with Brexiteers like Farage, Boris and JRM, backed by promises of ermine, and also because it would be an extension to rather than revocation of Article 50.
This would allow time for HMG to spread the good news on the economy and spend time on its other policies (often nicked from Ed Miliband but never mind). It would also allow an orderly transition to a new leader and buy the current PM more time at Number 10.
Not waterproof but perhaps water resistant, as plans go.
A very good, if sobering, overview. Failing any cross-party agreement to get Brexit through (and William Hague was very good on that yesterday) our best bet looks like a new leader and a swift General Election [in an attempt] to change the Parliamentary maths.
I think their biggest problem is what do they stand for? Defence? Not really, they believe in trident but that's about it Law and order? Clearly not given police cuts Low tax? Vat etc suggests this isn't top of the list anymore Austerity? Is already on its way out meaning..... Fiscal probity? We dont run anywhere near a surplus so no Social conservatism? No, they are desperate to appear woke on all matters They are basically not labour and support crapping on those with disability and have a sizable 'patrician' caucus who feel they werd born to rule
A pillar of salt and at last its crumbling away. Same for the labour party of course.
Time for change. Time for Change. Shame Bout their Brexit stance
A lot of people have been saying for a long time that both main parties aren't really fit for purpose anymore. Their main reason for being is being a buffer to the other party.
Now a faultline (Brexit) has developed on a different line than the old standard left/right, it's no wonder that both parties have splintered.
Worse for the tories right now of course, as they're in power.
Both on life support and in agony holding on to watch the other die
I deplore government by referendum, but circumstances may leave us with no choice but to accept another wretched plebiscite. Should the question be resolved in favour of REMAIN far thinking conservatives (who have always excelled at adapt and survive) need to think about how the conservative party might reinvent itself as a pro-European party.
Thus cementing the party's final slide into oblivion. I am afraid this kind of thinking is 'wrong sort of voter' territory.
Not really. There is a big gap in the market for a centre-right pro-business pro-competition smaller-state Remain-but-not-federalise fiscally-prudent political party. Indeed, shorn of the Eurosceptic nutcases, it might be quite popular.
The Tory party would need a Clause IV moment to convince people it won't drag us towards another Brexit again. If they try a rehashed Eurosceptic Remain platform à la Cameron, it won't be enough.
A very good, if sobering, overview. Failing any cross-party agreement to get Brexit through (and William Hague was very good on that yesterday) our best bet looks like a new leader and a swift General Election [in an attempt] to change the Parliamentary maths.
It's a gamble, but not as big a gamble as doing nothing or going for EU-Ref 2. The other method out would be a customs fudge.
A very good, if sobering, overview. Failing any cross-party agreement to get Brexit through (and William Hague was very good on that yesterday) our best bet looks like a new leader and a swift General Election [in an attempt] to change the Parliamentary maths.
My view is that under our system of parliamentary democracy it is far better at this stage that a GE is undertaken first, to try and change the maths, before a 2nd referendum vote.
However, that seems unlikely as Tories/Turkeys will not vote for Christmas.
I think their biggest problem is what do they stand for? Defence? Not really, they believe in trident but that's about it Law and order? Clearly not given police cuts Low tax? Vat etc suggests this isn't top of the list anymore Austerity? Is already on its way out meaning..... Fiscal probity? We dont run anywhere near a surplus so no Social conservatism? No, they are desperate to appear woke on all matters They are basically not labour and support crapping on those with disability and have a sizable 'patrician' caucus who feel they werd born to rule
A pillar of salt and at last its crumbling away. Same for the labour party of course.
Time for change. Time for Change. Shame Bout their Brexit stance
For me the Tories have, in their rational times, been pragmatists. They want UK plc to do well and benefit the people who live here. That means that they accept levels of taxation that are necessary for public services but not levels of taxation that are damaging to growth. It means that they accept a progressive taxation system but not to the extent that wealth creators and investors are disincentivised from making more money in this country. It means that public finances need to be put and then kept in some form of order so that they do not destabilise future growth or performance. They respect property rights. They have a sceptical view of how much the State can help. They want equality of opportunity (even if they are more willing than others to start with something less than a level playing field) not outcomes. They want things to work and, on a good day, are willing to be pragmatic about whether this means that the services the State provides are provided by the public or private sector. They don't believe in change for change's stake. They do believe in competence.
To me these are the basic tenets of conservatism and I personally still find it an attractive agenda. Measuring the performance of the current government against these tenets is a painful and uncomfortable process.
Universities are absolubtely awash with cash from the loan system right now, which long term will cost the taxpayer and students more than grants I think. Clearly they've got plenty to spunk about on NDAs and suchlike.
This is an excellent piece from Lewis Goodall. I think the Brexit Party should be odds-on for the Euros.
Farage spotted a long time ago that we'd be taking part in the European elections and based a strategy around that. It's amazing that so many Westminster politicians seem to be genuinely surprised by this.
A very good, if sobering, overview. Failing any cross-party agreement to get Brexit through (and William Hague was very good on that yesterday) our best bet looks like a new leader and a swift General Election [in an attempt] to change the Parliamentary maths.
Change the parliamentary maths in favour of what, though? If Brexit will do immense harm, or is the path to the broad, sunlit uplands, then parties ought to be in favour of one or the other.
The trouble is, many MPs seem no longer to care very much which it is, so long as something is agreed and then can Brexit can be put to bed. They forget the consequences will be real.
A very good, if sobering, overview. Failing any cross-party agreement to get Brexit through (and William Hague was very good on that yesterday) our best bet looks like a new leader and a swift General Election [in an attempt] to change the Parliamentary maths.
There is no chance of that once the new leader is appointed and people react to that leader. Heck as a centralist (wet) Tory voter given the choice of Corbyn or Boris / Rabb I'm likely to go for Corbyn.
A very good, if sobering, overview. Failing any cross-party agreement to get Brexit through (and William Hague was very good on that yesterday) our best bet looks like a new leader and a swift General Election [in an attempt] to change the Parliamentary maths.
Change the parliamentary maths in favour of what, though? If Brexit will do immense harm, or is the path to the broad, sunlit uplands, then parties ought to be in favour of one or the other.
The trouble is, many MPs seem no longer to care very much which it is, so long as something is agreed and then can Brexit can be put to bed. They forget the consequences will be real.
In favour of the deal, or something very close to it. The Conservative Party is in favour of the deal. 90% of the Parliamentary party voted for it. Unfortunately that does not amount to a majority in the House of Commons at present.
I think their biggest problem is what do they stand for? Defence? Not really, they believe in trident but that's about it Law and order? Clearly not given police cuts Low tax? Vat etc suggests this isn't top of the list anymore Austerity? Is already on its way out meaning..... Fiscal probity? We dont run anywhere near a surplus so no Social conservatism? No, they are desperate to appear woke on all matters They are basically not labour and support crapping on those with disability and have a sizable 'patrician' caucus who feel they werd born to rule
A pillar of salt and at last its crumbling away. Same for the labour party of course.
Time for change. Time for Change. Shame Bout their Brexit stance
For me the Tories have, in their rational times, been pragmatists. They want UK plc to do well and benefit the people who live here. That means that they accept levels of taxation that are necessary for public services but not levels of taxation that are damaging to growth. It means that they accept a progressive taxation system but not to the extent that wealth creators and investors are disincentivised from making more money in this country. It means that public finances need to be put and then kept in some form of order so that they do not destabilise future growth or performance. They respect property rights. They have a sceptical view of how much the State can help. They want equality of opportunity (even if they are more willing than others to start with something less than a level playing field) not outcomes. They want things to work and, on a good day, are willing to be pragmatic about whether this means that the services the State provides are provided by the public or private sector. They don't believe in change for change's stake. They do believe in competence.
To me these are the basic tenets of conservatism and I personally still find it an attractive agenda. Measuring the performance of the current government against these tenets is a painful and uncomfortable process.
Pragmatism departed with the tripling of student fees and the triple locking of pensions.
A very good, if sobering, overview. Failing any cross-party agreement to get Brexit through (and William Hague was very good on that yesterday) our best bet looks like a new leader and a swift General Election [in an attempt] to change the Parliamentary maths.
There is no chance of that once the new leader is appointed and people react to that leader. Heck as a centralist (wet) Tory voter given the choice of Corbyn or Boris / Rabb I'm likely to go for Corbyn.
New leaders frequently get honeymoons, though I'll concede that is more likely for some potential candidates than others.
Excellent piece Mr Meeks. Sums up the Tory dilemma perfectly. Hard to be sympathetic, since this is entirely self-inflicted, largely by calamitous political miscalculations by T May and D Cameron.
The compromise solution favoured by Mr D John downthread is probably the most realistic way forward, perhaps the only way the Tories can save themselves, but the divisions are probably too deep for it to work now.
A very good, if sobering, overview. Failing any cross-party agreement to get Brexit through (and William Hague was very good on that yesterday) our best bet looks like a new leader and a swift General Election [in an attempt] to change the Parliamentary maths.
And the agreed Tory Brexit policy would be..........?
I deplore government by referendum, but circumstances may leave us with no choice but to accept another wretched plebiscite. Should the question be resolved in favour of REMAIN far thinking conservatives (who have always excelled at adapt and survive) need to think about how the conservative party might reinvent itself as a pro-European party.
Thus cementing the party's final slide into oblivion. I am afraid this kind of thinking is 'wrong sort of voter' territory.
Not really. There is a big gap in the market for a centre-right pro-business pro-competition smaller-state Remain-but-not-federalise fiscally-prudent political party. Indeed, shorn of the Eurosceptic nutcases, it might be quite popular.
No where near as big as you think. It is a recipe for perpetual irrelevance.
I doubt that, personally. But I'd rather risk that than be shackled to self-destructive zealots.
I deplore government by referendum, but circumstances may leave us with no choice but to accept another wretched plebiscite. Should the question be resolved in favour of REMAIN far thinking conservatives (who have always excelled at adapt and survive) need to think about how the conservative party might reinvent itself as a pro-European party.
Thus cementing the party's final slide into oblivion. I am afraid this kind of thinking is 'wrong sort of voter' territory.
Not really. There is a big gap in the market for a centre-right pro-business pro-competition smaller-state Remain-but-not-federalise fiscally-prudent political party. Indeed, shorn of the Eurosceptic nutcases, it might be quite popular.
The Tory party would need a Clause IV moment to convince people it won't drag us towards another Brexit again. If they try a rehashed Eurosceptic Remain platform à la Cameron, it won't be enough.
The assumption would be that such a party would have already lost its ERG wing to Farage and/or UKIP. The remnants would be much more credible as Remain.
A very good, if sobering, overview. Failing any cross-party agreement to get Brexit through (and William Hague was very good on that yesterday) our best bet looks like a new leader and a swift General Election [in an attempt] to change the Parliamentary maths.
To change the Parliamentary maths you would also need to deselect the ERG nutters and the Remainer headbangers among Conservative MPs.
And while they were doing that they could deselect Fox, Grayling and other incompetents as well.
The Conservative party is in need of a rather severe pruning.
One man's fake news is another man's entire twitter feed.
The term has lost almost all meaning now. Trump has embraced calling stories he doesn't like "fake news", uses it almost every day, and has made it one of his most effective tools.
I think it might even be the case now that more often than not when someone calls something "fake news" it isn't fake news.
A very good, if sobering, overview. Failing any cross-party agreement to get Brexit through (and William Hague was very good on that yesterday) our best bet looks like a new leader and a swift General Election [in an attempt] to change the Parliamentary maths.
And the agreed Tory Brexit policy would be..........?
Well, that might depend on the leadership contest. But the obvious answer is the deal, or something very close to it. 90% of the Parliamentary party voted for it.
It's true that some of the 10% would defect. Clearly it would be better to be getting a new leader (and possibly that GE) post-Brexit. But that's not looking very likely.
A very good, if sobering, overview. Failing any cross-party agreement to get Brexit through (and William Hague was very good on that yesterday) our best bet looks like a new leader and a swift General Election [in an attempt] to change the Parliamentary maths.
And the agreed Tory Brexit policy would be..........?
They would probably go with Brexit Mean's Brexit.
Talk up hard brexit/WTO before the election then deftly pivot to revoke/BINO after it would seem to be the route to salvation for the toraidhi.
I deplore government by referendum, but circumstances may leave us with no choice but to accept another wretched plebiscite. Should the question be resolved in favour of REMAIN far thinking conservatives (who have always excelled at adapt and survive) need to think about how the conservative party might reinvent itself as a pro-European party.
Thus cementing the party's final slide into oblivion. I am afraid this kind of thinking is 'wrong sort of voter' territory.
Not really. There is a big gap in the market for a centre-right pro-business pro-competition smaller-state Remain-but-not-federalise fiscally-prudent political party. Indeed, shorn of the Eurosceptic nutcases, it might be quite popular.
There's probably a 10% gap in the market for such a party.
King Cole, no procedures necessary and they remain a healthy yellow.
Only slight problem was the computer stopped working (black screen) for 10 minutes. The dentist opined that 10 years ago he was still using paper. And it was quicker.
One man's fake news is another man's entire twitter feed.
The term has lost almost all meaning now. Trump has embraced calling stories he doesn't like "fake news", uses it almost every day, and has made it one of his most effective tools.
I think it might even be the case now that more often than not when someone calls something "fake news" it isn't fake news.
Seem to recall reading somewhere that there's a university course on identifying fake news, bullshit etc. Washington State I think; might be Oregon.
Edit: found it; from the Guardian: 'Calling Bullshit: Data Reasoning in a Digital World,' Washington Uni, but apparently on-line.
A very good, if sobering, overview. Failing any cross-party agreement to get Brexit through (and William Hague was very good on that yesterday) our best bet looks like a new leader and a swift General Election [in an attempt] to change the Parliamentary maths.
Change the parliamentary maths in favour of what, though? If Brexit will do immense harm, or is the path to the broad, sunlit uplands, then parties ought to be in favour of one or the other.
The trouble is, many MPs seem no longer to care very much which it is, so long as something is agreed and then can Brexit can be put to bed. They forget the consequences will be real.
If that was true, they'd have backed the deal that's on the table.
What MPs really want is for Brexit to be sorted, but by someone else.
A very good, if sobering, overview. Failing any cross-party agreement to get Brexit through (and William Hague was very good on that yesterday) our best bet looks like a new leader and a swift General Election [in an attempt] to change the Parliamentary maths.
There is no chance of that once the new leader is appointed and people react to that leader. Heck as a centralist (wet) Tory voter given the choice of Corbyn or Boris / Rabb I'm likely to go for Corbyn.
New leaders frequently get honeymoons, though I'll concede that is more likely for some potential candidates than others.
Name one likely Tory leader that will get a honeymoon from people utterly fed up with Brexit...
The tory vote is currently a May sympathy vote. Remove May and I wouldn't like to guess what their polling will look like.
A very good, if sobering, overview. Failing any cross-party agreement to get Brexit through (and William Hague was very good on that yesterday) our best bet looks like a new leader and a swift General Election [in an attempt] to change the Parliamentary maths.
Change the parliamentary maths in favour of what, though? If Brexit will do immense harm, or is the path to the broad, sunlit uplands, then parties ought to be in favour of one or the other.
The trouble is, many MPs seem no longer to care very much which it is, so long as something is agreed and then can Brexit can be put to bed. They forget the consequences will be real.
If that was true, they'd have backed the deal that's on the table.
What MPs really want is for Brexit to be sorted, but by someone else.
Everyone knows it's going to be worse than we currently are so no one wants the blame pointed at them...
A very good, if sobering, overview. Failing any cross-party agreement to get Brexit through (and William Hague was very good on that yesterday) our best bet looks like a new leader and a swift General Election [in an attempt] to change the Parliamentary maths.
There is no chance of that once the new leader is appointed and people react to that leader. Heck as a centralist (wet) Tory voter given the choice of Corbyn or Boris / Rabb I'm likely to go for Corbyn.
New leaders frequently get honeymoons, though I'll concede that is more likely for some potential candidates than others.
Name one likely Tory leader that will get a honeymoon from people utterly fed up with Brexit...
The tory vote is currently a May sympathy vote. Remove May and I wouldn't like to guess what their polling will look like.
Well, I did write an entire header on the Tory leadership the other day. I agree with you about the quiet admiration for May's resilience - that's definitely a thing on the doorsteps (as is of course the contrary view).
I think their biggest problem is what do they stand for? Defence? Not really, they believe in trident but that's about it Law and order? Clearly not given police cuts Low tax? Vat etc suggests this isn't top of the list anymore Austerity? Is already on its way out meaning..... Fiscal probity? We dont run anywhere near a surplus so no Social conservatism? No, they are desperate to appear woke on all matters They are basically not labour and support crapping on those with disability and have a sizable 'patrician' caucus who feel they werd born to rule
A pillar of salt and at last its crumbling away. Same for the labour party of course.
Time for change. Time for Change. Shame Bout their Brexit stance
For me the Tories have, in their rational times, been pragmatists. They want UK plc to do well and benefit the people who live here. That means that they accept levels of taxation that are necessary for public services but not levels of taxation that are damaging to growth. It means that they accept a progressive taxation system but not to the extent that wealth creators and investors are disincentivised from making more money in this country. It means that public finances need to be put and then kept in some form of order so that they do not destabilise future growth or performance. They respect property rights. They have a sceptical view of how much the State can help. They want equality of opportunity (even if they are more willing than others to start with something less than a level playing field) not outcomes. They want things to work and, on a good day, are willing to be pragmatic about whether this means that the services the State provides are provided by the public or private sector. They don't believe in change for change's stake. They do believe in competence.
To me these are the basic tenets of conservatism and I personally still find it an attractive agenda. Measuring the performance of the current government against these tenets is a painful and uncomfortable process.
Pragmatism departed with the tripling of student fees and the triple locking of pensions.
They were certainly aberrations. But hopefully the way can be found again.
Heartfelt thanks. There cannot be too many better ways to start the day than a persuasive case that the Tories are doomed.
Can they do anything about it?
Yes. However the thing that they could do to give themselves a real shout at winning the next election - run on a populist Hard Brexit offering under Boris Johnson - is the very thing that they must NOT do if they value their long term future.
So, instant gratification versus long term health? We know how that usually goes but perhaps they will surprise and delight on the upside.
One man's fake news is another man's entire twitter feed.
The passion of Brits, at least according to opinion polls, to create silly new crimes seems to have no limits.
Or alternatively: The passion of pollsters to publish misleading polls seems to have no limits.
Where is the question eg "do you agree or disagree with freedom of speech, even if it means people sometimes spread inaccurate information?" for comparison?
Seem to recall reading somewhere that there's a university course on identifying fake news, bullshit etc. Washington State I think; might be Oregon.
Edit: found it; from the Guardian: 'Calling Bullshit: Data Reasoning in a Digital World,' Washington Uni, but apparently on-line.
Oh I quite agree that there is real "fake news", be it lies, propaganda, disinformation etc. But all too often now when people say something is "fake news" what they really mean is it is news they don't like.
If Labour include a second vote for the EU elections then they have a good chance of coming out on top . If they don’t then the Brexit Party will likely win .
If fact food and non alcoholic beverages fell very slightly over the year. (0.03%). It means the complaints made only yesterday about how the increase in real wages was going to be swept away by higher food prices are nonsense too. It's almost as if these doomsayers had another agenda. Those who still put faith in their forecasts of tenths of a percent difference in growth over more than a decade should perhaps reflect on this.
Yes, I think it’d be between 20-25% were it to come to a vote.
If a vote happened now then I agree. OTOH the pound is currently functioning pretty well as a currency; It lost value in Brexit but there's not too much inflation, the Bank of England has control over it and looks like it knows what it's doing, and there's nothing obviously wrong with it. After couple of governments alternating right-populism and Corbynism this may no longer hold...
Current polling could be a short term hit for the Brexit date passing or May's baffling decision to go cap in hand to Corbyn. The Tories previously retained a consistent lead despite having shocking ratings on their handling of Brexit.
I remember the days when Alastair used to describe the EU as a second order problem. He was probably right then. What I do agree with in the thread header is that there are a significant number, probably still a minority, who are monomaniacal about it not just in the Conservative party but in the country. He is now one of them.
My guess, and it is only a guess, is that whatever the position is in the Tory party, obsession with Brexit is still a minority pursuit in the country. Most people who mention it are bored to tears with it, exasperated with our politicians of all persuasions and just want it to go away one way or another. Many, indeed most, that I speak to are long past caring how it goes away.
My guess is that the government is currently being punished for not managing to make Brexit go away. That is likely to show up strongly in the pointless Euro elections but, just as May found to her cost in 2017, the next election will not be about Brexit but about the stuff people actually care about.
The Tories have problems, no question. They are deeply divided, they have spent months being incredibly rude to and about each other, they have dug deep holes escaping from which is going to be both difficult and undignified. But it is too soon to write them off. As the good book says, this too will pass.
A very good, if sobering, overview. Failing any cross-party agreement to get Brexit through (and William Hague was very good on that yesterday) our best bet looks like a new leader and a swift General Election [in an attempt] to change the Parliamentary maths.
And the agreed Tory Brexit policy would be..........?
Well, that might depend on the leadership contest. But the obvious answer is the deal, or something very close to it. 90% of the Parliamentary party voted for it.
It's true that some of the 10% would defect. Clearly it would be better to be getting a new leader (and possibly that GE) post-Brexit. But that's not looking very likely.
I am unconvinced that there will be a collective defection of the ERG ultras. Past form suggests that one or at most two will defect to the Brexit Party (and I’m sure the timing is already a matter of discussion with Farage)... the other 30 or so will let it be known that they are ready to defect unless they get there way on some matter... possibly a leadership election before party conference
Current polling could be a short term hit for the Brexit date passing or May's baffling decision to go cap in hand to Corbyn. The Tories previously retained a consistent lead despite having shocking ratings on their handling of Brexit.
There's a lot of anti-Corbyn press (and media). If, and I know it's a big if, he were to go, could be a very different matter.
If Labour include a second vote for the EU elections then they have a good chance of coming out on top . If they don’t then the Brexit Party will likely win .
Watching the inability of the Revoke parties to understand how the election works is proving fun
Current polling could be a short term hit for the Brexit date passing or May's baffling decision to go cap in hand to Corbyn. The Tories previously retained a consistent lead despite having shocking ratings on their handling of Brexit.
It's not remotely baffling. May needs numbers; Corbyn has them. She tried getting a Brexit deal through without Corbyn, numerous times and it wasn't possible. Having exhausted all possibilities of getting a deal through with Con, DUP and ad hoc opposition rebels, the next obvious place to go to was the opposition front bench. A deal won't be done, because Corbyn doesn't do deals with Tories on principle but at the least it tars his hands and you never know, Starmer might box him into a corner.
The current polling is the result of the fragile Con coalition having broken down, as Alastair points out - and also the emergence of the Brexit party, which is a more acceptable vehicle for protest than UKIP, which is now little more than BNP2.0.
If Labour include a second vote for the EU elections then they have a good chance of coming out on top . If they don’t then the Brexit Party will likely win .
Watching the inability of the Revoke parties to understand how the election works is proving fun
Unless this is fixed I suspect Labour are going to get a lot of votes as others explain why the split vote makes voting for them completely pointless.
The LibDems at least understand, but great uncle Vince on the radio this morning said with his usual energy that there's nothing they can do about it....
I deplore government by referendum, but circumstances may leave us with no choice but to accept another wretched plebiscite. Should the question be resolved in favour of REMAIN far thinking conservatives (who have always excelled at adapt and survive) need to think about how the conservative party might reinvent itself as a pro-European party.
Thus cementing the party's final slide into oblivion. I am afraid this kind of thinking is 'wrong sort of voter' territory.
Not really. There is a big gap in the market for a centre-right pro-business pro-competition smaller-state Remain-but-not-federalise fiscally-prudent political party. Indeed, shorn of the Eurosceptic nutcases, it might be quite popular.
There's probably a 10% gap in the market for such a party.
Where does that get you under FPTP ?
Nah, it's at least a 15% base, minimum, plus plenty more centrists depending on circumstances (which are quite favourable right now). But frankly, if all it does is keep the Brexit-UKIP-ERG rump out of power, that alone would be worthwhile.
In any case, a system with at six or seven GB parties polling 5%+ would make FPTP unsustainable and would probably result in PR following one or two more hung parliaments.
One man's fake news is another man's entire twitter feed.
The term has lost almost all meaning now. Trump has embraced calling stories he doesn't like "fake news", uses it almost every day, and has made it one of his most effective tools.
I think it might even be the case now that more often than not when someone calls something "fake news" it isn't fake news.
Seem to recall reading somewhere that there's a university course on identifying fake news, bullshit etc. Washington State I think; might be Oregon.
Edit: found it; from the Guardian: 'Calling Bullshit: Data Reasoning in a Digital World,' Washington Uni, but apparently on-line.
The course begins with watching Channel 4 News for a day or two.
A very good, if sobering, overview. Failing any cross-party agreement to get Brexit through (and William Hague was very good on that yesterday) our best bet looks like a new leader and a swift General Election [in an attempt] to change the Parliamentary maths.
There is no chance of that once the new leader is appointed and people react to that leader. Heck as a centralist (wet) Tory voter given the choice of Corbyn or Boris / Rabb I'm likely to go for Corbyn.
New leaders frequently get honeymoons, though I'll concede that is more likely for some potential candidates than others.
Such honeymoons do not always last long though. Callaghan became PM in first week of April 1976 but by that Autumn his Government had become very unpopular.
If you view politics through a prism of Brexit then I can imagine the current situation probably does look something akin to the header.
However, it would perhaps provide the obsessives with a slightly different outlook if they spoke to normal people rather than existing in an echo chamber.
Come the next GE there will of course be those who are as obsessed with Brexit as the op but the vast majority will be focused on how their vote will directly affect their jobs and families.
Possibly the "vast majority normal people" don't actually care about Brexit. The clean way to get rid of Brexit in that case is to cancel it. You will no longer have to choose between unpalatable options that leave you worse off in important ways, spend the next decade or more negotiating with the EU, stakeholders in the UK and across the wider world. But if you say cancellation would be a gross betrayal of the 17 million voters etc, it means you DO care about Brexit and will have to deal with all that debilitating stuff.
The problem with the new "I Can't Believe It's Not UKIP" Tory brand is that people can vote for the real thing. Both real things.
And excellent header. Difficult to say new and interesting things about Brexit.
I get the impression even the media is now bored of Brexit, and desperate to talk about anything else for a while. We may get more bread and butter issues like education and health in the headlines over the next few months, which unfortunately is probably going to benefit Labour.
I think the boredom is real, and reaches into Parliament. People who think any decision is coming soon are deluding themselves. TM has a road leading to October and she is guaranteed to kick the can down it, with acquiescence from bored and frustrated MPs.
It's noticeable that the Tory leadership candidates aren't talking about Brexit either.
If Labour include a second vote for the EU elections then they have a good chance of coming out on top . If they don’t then the Brexit Party will likely win .
I think Labour will save that offering (Ref2) for a general election.
If Labour include a second vote for the EU elections then they have a good chance of coming out on top . If they don’t then the Brexit Party will likely win .
It is rather British to talk about "winning" elections when you get 27% of the vote and 20 odd seats out of 73. It is certainly a habit we should all get out of.
I'm not denying the symbolic aspects of finishing top, mind.
I think a clean Remain slate could easily do it, but each of the Remain parties has its own agenda. As does Labour.
I get the impression even the media is now bored of Brexit, and desperate to talk about anything else for a while. We may get more bread and butter issues like education and health in the headlines over the next few months, which unfortunately is probably going to benefit Labour.
I think the boredom is real, and reaches into Parliament. People who think any decision is coming soon are deluding themselves. TM has a road leading to October and she is guaranteed to kick the can down it, with acquiescence from bored and frustrated MPs.
It's noticeable that the Tory leadership candidates aren't talking about Brexit either.
I would say the boredom is not just real; it is necessary. Only minimum change is workable, I think.
You either tick the Leave box, exit and do whatever you can to minimise the consequences by staying in the Single Market, Customs Union, ECJ, FoM, CFA, CAP or equivalents - so you keep everything about the EU except having any say.
Or you decide we're not ready yet, set up a working group on how to take this forward and in the meantime revoke Article 50.
Workable isn't necessarily what is going to happen however.
I get the impression even the media is now bored of Brexit, and desperate to talk about anything else for a while. We may get more bread and butter issues like education and health in the headlines over the next few months, which unfortunately is probably going to benefit Labour.
I think the boredom is real, and reaches into Parliament. People who think any decision is coming soon are deluding themselves. TM has a road leading to October and she is guaranteed to kick the can down it, with acquiescence from bored and frustrated MPs.
It's noticeable that the Tory leadership candidates aren't talking about Brexit either.
Which means we’ll be kicked out in October by the French.
With Tusk gone and May still there boring the pants off everyone who on the EU side would want to extend the agony to allow us to faff around some more?
Comments
I remember the days when Alastair used to describe the EU as a second order problem. He was probably right then. What I do agree with in the thread header is that there are a significant number, probably still a minority, who are monomaniacal about it not just in the Conservative party but in the country. He is now one of them.
My guess, and it is only a guess, is that whatever the position is in the Tory party, obsession with Brexit is still a minority pursuit in the country. Most people who mention it are bored to tears with it, exasperated with our politicians of all persuasions and just want it to go away one way or another. Many, indeed most, that I speak to are long past caring how it goes away.
My guess is that the government is currently being punished for not managing to make Brexit go away. That is likely to show up strongly in the pointless Euro elections but, just as May found to her cost in 2017, the next election will not be about Brexit but about the stuff people actually care about.
The Tories have problems, no question. They are deeply divided, they have spent months being incredibly rude to and about each other, they have dug deep holes escaping from which is going to be both difficult and undignified. But it is too soon to write them off. As the good book says, this too will pass.
https://twitter.com/wannowan58/status/1118435515764703232?s=21
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1118435646853480449?s=21
Among the things that will pass some day is the Conservative party. It doesn’t have to survive this catastrophe and it richly deserves not to.
Especially in light of the case between Burgon and The Sun.
Defence? Not really, they believe in trident but that's about it
Law and order? Clearly not given police cuts
Low tax? Vat etc suggests this isn't top of the list anymore
Austerity? Is already on its way out meaning.....
Fiscal probity? We dont run anywhere near a surplus so no
Social conservatism? No, they are desperate to appear woke on all matters
They are basically not labour and support crapping on those with disability and have a sizable 'patrician' caucus who feel they werd born to rule
A pillar of salt and at last its crumbling away.
Same for the labour party of course.
Time for change. Time for Change. Shame Bout their Brexit stance
Kicking the can on Brexit risks simply a drawn-out death rather than a swift one. Worse, it probably loses any remnant of control of the process as there will ultimately be a resolution and if the government can't deliver it, then the EU or parliament or the public will - and those who don't like it will still blame the government not only for not having delivered a Christmas unicorn but also for not even trying.
Besides, a new leader will arrive with both confidence and commitments. They will try to resolve Brexit because they'll have promised that they'll do so and because they'll believe that they can do so. Freed, perhaps, from some of the constraints on May, they might even be right, though that almost certainly implies a No Deal outcome. Parliament has been successful in preventing that so far because May has been reluctant to push it. It might find it harder to impose that policy on a PM more willing to countenance it (and they dynamics of a Tory leadership context before Brexit would surely demand that the winner was openly prepared to countenance it), as No Deal remains the legal default.
The answer to other conclusion is simple. Alastair focuses his piece entirely on the Tories, which is fair enough in terms of where the government is going. However, a future GE will be a choice between alternatives. Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott and Burgon remain powerful incentives to back the best available alternative to keep them out of power. It's no silver bullet that the Tories can rely on but the (or many of the) disaffected ex-Tory voters are nonetheless ex-Tory voters precisely because of a fear of Labour and that fear still has force. It might be a bit of a crappy reason but it is a reason all the same.
Now if he admitted using that phrase I think the outcome would have been markedly different.
Boggling isn't what my mind would do. Far more than that.
Now a faultline (Brexit) has developed on a different line than the old standard left/right, it's no wonder that both parties have splintered.
Worse for the tories right now of course, as they're in power.
She must do what she (and Cameron before her) should have done at the outset, and set up a Commission to find an optimum Brexit, and have a 2-year extension of Article 50.
Leave anger can be assuaged by stuffing the Commission with Brexiteers like Farage, Boris and JRM, backed by promises of ermine, and also because it would be an extension to rather than revocation of Article 50.
This would allow time for HMG to spread the good news on the economy and spend time on its other policies (often nicked from Ed Miliband but never mind). It would also allow an orderly transition to a new leader and buy the current PM more time at Number 10.
Not waterproof but perhaps water resistant, as plans go.
UK universities are being accused of using "gagging orders" to stop bullying, discrimination and sexual misconduct allegations becoming public.
Dozens of academics have told BBC News they were "harassed" out of their jobs and made to sign non-disclosure agreements after making complaints.
Figures obtained by the BBC show UK universities spent about £87m on pay-offs with NDAs since 2017.
https://www.bbc.com/news/education-47936662
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1118384826950848512
However, that seems unlikely as Tories/Turkeys will not vote for Christmas.
To me these are the basic tenets of conservatism and I personally still find it an attractive agenda. Measuring the performance of the current government against these tenets is a painful and uncomfortable process.
Clearly they've got plenty to spunk about on NDAs and suchlike.
Been to the dentist. And survived. Huzzah!
Mr. Glenn, perhaps but politicians generally have shown themselves to be rather poor, of late.
The trouble is, many MPs seem no longer to care very much which it is, so long as something is agreed and then can Brexit can be put to bed. They forget the consequences will be real.
The compromise solution favoured by Mr D John downthread is probably the most realistic way forward, perhaps the only way the Tories can save themselves, but the divisions are probably too deep for it to work now.
And while they were doing that they could deselect Fox, Grayling and other incompetents as well.
The Conservative party is in need of a rather severe pruning.
I think it might even be the case now that more often than not when someone calls something "fake news" it isn't fake news.
It's true that some of the 10% would defect. Clearly it would be better to be getting a new leader (and possibly that GE) post-Brexit. But that's not looking very likely.
Talk up hard brexit/WTO before the election then deftly pivot to revoke/BINO after it would seem to be the route to salvation for the toraidhi.
Where does that get you under FPTP ?
Only slight problem was the computer stopped working (black screen) for 10 minutes. The dentist opined that 10 years ago he was still using paper. And it was quicker.
Edit: found it; from the Guardian: 'Calling Bullshit: Data Reasoning in a Digital World,' Washington Uni, but apparently on-line.
What MPs really want is for Brexit to be sorted, but by someone else.
The tory vote is currently a May sympathy vote. Remove May and I wouldn't like to guess what their polling will look like.
BETTING POST. Still 13/8 at Ladbrokes and Coral, not for long.Can they do anything about it?
Yes. However the thing that they could do to give themselves a real shout at winning the next election - run on a populist Hard Brexit offering under Boris Johnson - is the very thing that they must NOT do if they value their long term future.
So, instant gratification versus long term health? We know how that usually goes but perhaps they will surprise and delight on the upside.
Where is the question eg "do you agree or disagree with freedom of speech, even if it means people sometimes spread inaccurate information?" for comparison?
"Why you should be wary of agree/disagree statements":
https://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/10054
Do I need a rabies shot or something?
If fact food and non alcoholic beverages fell very slightly over the year. (0.03%). It
means the complaints made only yesterday about how the increase in real wages was going to be swept away by higher food prices are nonsense too. It's almost as if these doomsayers had another agenda. Those who still put faith in their forecasts of tenths of a percent difference in growth over more than a decade should perhaps reflect on this.
https://twitter.com/TheGreenParty/status/1118421641497841664
Unless this is fixed I suspect Labour are going to get a lot of votes as others explain why the split vote makes voting for them completely pointless.
The current polling is the result of the fragile Con coalition having broken down, as Alastair points out - and also the emergence of the Brexit party, which is a more acceptable vehicle for protest than UKIP, which is now little more than BNP2.0.
In any case, a system with at six or seven GB parties polling 5%+ would make FPTP unsustainable and would probably result in PR following one or two more hung parliaments.
I can't see any problems trying to implement that...
The problem with the new "I Can't Believe It's Not UKIP" Tory brand is that people can vote for the real thing. Both real things.
And excellent header. Difficult to say new and interesting things about Brexit.
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1118456990244667392?s=21
It's noticeable that the Tory leadership candidates aren't talking about Brexit either.
Careful what you wish for!
I'm not denying the symbolic aspects of finishing top, mind.
I think a clean Remain slate could easily do it, but each of the Remain parties has its own agenda. As does Labour.
I am now trying to drink a cup of tea without dribbling. And failing. Double boo! Good practice for when I get a stroke, I guess.
Extinction Rebellion London protesters climb on top of DLR train
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-47959207
You either tick the Leave box, exit and do whatever you can to minimise the consequences by staying in the Single Market, Customs Union, ECJ, FoM, CFA, CAP or equivalents - so you keep everything about the EU except having any say.
Or you decide we're not ready yet, set up a working group on how to take this forward and in the meantime revoke Article 50.
Workable isn't necessarily what is going to happen however.
With Tusk gone and May still there boring the pants off everyone who on the EU side would want to extend the agony to allow us to faff around some more?
https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/1118462985008242689?s=21
https://www.bbc.com/sport/cricket/47959217
Hmm Joe Denly, Mark Wood, David Willey all in....but not Archer.