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  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    But given the FTPA, that wouldn't be a barrier to voting against the government in a confidence vote because they could then dictate terms for a Con-TIG confidence and supply agreement.
    Would they really wish to be seen as Tory allies?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Pulpstar said:

    Don't. The Tories won't win Streatham, it's way less than a 4% chance.
    You are right. It sounded good when I looked at the percentages, but then I remembered what Streatham is like. I'll back Soubry to hold her seat as an Independent when a market emerges instead.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,553

    One issue with the digital content model is fragmentation of the market. If you pay for Spotify you basically get everything, however that isn't true for most of the digital space.

    You pay for Netflix and yet you still don't get loads of things (and now Disney have pulled their stuff and launch their own service, it will be even less). All these paywalled newspaper services...they would be much better getting together and offering "News Inc", where you paid $10 a month and go access to a range of newspapers, the Times, Guardian, Washington Post etc.
    Apple supposedly have an Apple News subscription service coming soon. Supposedly they are hoping to pocket 50% of the fees and keep prices low so I'm not sure how successful it would be
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Are Tories waiting to jump just before PMQs tomorrow?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,647
    justin124 said:

    Would they really wish to be seen as Tory allies?
    Maybe maybe not but they would have two and a half years to work out what they do want to be seen as and in the meantime, they hold an inordinate amount of power, relative to their circumstance.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,961

    I was in such an establishment in Stoke the other week...they put my double espresso in a builders mug! Absolutely outrageous.
    They told you it was a double espresso. In reality they gargled the milk. Don't ask about the sprinkled chocolate... :)

    Speaking resriohsly, the rise of coffee culture had ruined local caffs. It used to be you'd go in, grab a tea and cheese on toast, have it in a proper mug and cutlery, and you could sit down for 30mins and watch the world go by for ridiculously little money. Now you have to wait ten minutes in the queue because every single person in the world cannot function without their decadent overprepared coffee that takes ages to prepare and longer to spell. And you need a mortgage for a sandwich. Aaargh!

    (Grumpy viewcode mode off now... :) )
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    eek said:

    Buffet car? First Class has a complementary at seat service why would you go to the buffet car?
    What is it the complement of?
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    edited February 2019

    Just checked that out. I think you are right.
    Wollaston is gone all but officially, I'm surprised the Tories don't out her now to steal her thunder. She is one person who by leaving will strengthen the Tories given her voting record, Cameron loyalty and extreme Brexit views.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    IanB2 said:

    Looking at their recent retweets I reckon both Soubry and Wollaston are going to jump.

    Certainly seems like a distinct possibility ...... maybe just waiting to see how the first-jumpers get on? If there are sharks in the sea, not a bad idea to watch and see if anyone gets eaten before you follow.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Is Quebec?
    Or Bavaria? Or Tuscany?
  • IanB2 said:

    Looking at their recent retweets I reckon both Soubry and Wollaston are going to jump.

    Good spot.
  • viewcode said:

    They told you it was a double espresso. In reality they gargled the milk. Don't ask about the sprinkled chocolate... :)

    Speaking resriohsly, the rise of coffee culture had ruined local caffs. It used to be you'd go in, grab a tea and cheese on toast, have it in a proper mug and cutlery, and you could sit down for 30mins and watch the world go by for ridiculously little money. Now you have to wait ten minutes in the queue because every single person in the world cannot function without their decadent overprepared coffee that takes ages to prepare and longer to spell. And you need a mortgage for a sandwich. Aaargh!

    (Grumpy viewcode mode off now... :) )
    Psst. No milk or chocolate in an espresso.. so you'd easily spot that :)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,240
    Pulpstar said:

    Wollaston, Totnes could be the interesting one if offered. The Lib Dems might not run, or run a paper candidate, against her if she runs as an independent.
    Both LibDems and the Greens are key to Totnes. I also know some of the Labour vote would peel off to her as an independent - they really like her, but just can't stomach voting Tory.

    That said, those who don't like her REALLY don't like her. The Tory campaign would be quite enthused to boot her out.

    But if there are no active LibDem and Green campaigns, I reckon Dr. Sarah might be the sole Tigger in town after the next election....
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    tlg86 said:

    Might be different in a by-election when fewer people vote and when those that do are more likely to understand why the by-election has occurred.

    But a GE is very different, as shown in Rochester and Strood in 2015.
    Until 1992 Streatham was a Tory seat - represented by Duncan Sandys for many years. There have been boundary changes plus significant demographic change.
  • Psst. No milk or chocolate in an espresso.. so you'd easily spot that :)
    To be honest not sure how much espresso there was in there either....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,513
    TOPPING said:

    Maybe maybe not but they would have two and a half years to work out what they do want to be seen as and in the meantime, they hold an inordinate amount of power, relative to their circumstance.
    If they secured a referendum they could always bring down the government afterwards. I don't think any of the Lib Dem lurgy would afflict them in those circumstances.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,961

    Psst. No milk or chocolate in an espresso.. so you'd easily spot that :)
    I eschew fancy-dan coffees in favour of honest working diet Coke. Plus I don't actually know the lingo and I'm embarrassed to ask. Plus I'm fucked if I'm paying that much... :)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited February 2019
    Jezza speaking now about the gang of 7....and he had nothing to say...now claiming he is definitely tried to get a second referendum.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,240
    viewcode said:

    I eschew fancy-dan coffees in favour of honest working diet Coke. Plus I don't actually know the lingo and I'm embarrassed to ask. Plus I'm fucked if I'm paying that much... :)
    Diet coke? Miss Cyclefree will be along to heap opprobrium upon thee in 5,4,3.....
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,647

    If they secured a referendum they could always bring down the government afterwards. I don't think any of the Lib Dem lurgy would afflict them in those circumstances.
    They could be the difference between any and every policy or vote from now until 2022. That is in anyone's book a success. And success breeds success. Would you rather be a marginalised back bencher in the Cons or Lab or have real influence in parliament, a la the DUP in a new grouping/party? It's a no-brainer.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,513
    This was said with Michael Gove sitting on the stage with her.

    https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1097841785173393409
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    TGOHF said:
    I had understood that the 7 MPs had stated they will not be contesting their own seats next time.
  • Scott_P said:
    sounds like he's saying 'come and get me....'.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,240
    edited February 2019
    justin124 said:

    I had understood that the 7 MPs had stated they will not be contesting their own seats next time.
    Maybe Ladbrokes understood that too!!

    EDIT Although I'd say it were a daft decision to make in advance. Wave goodbye to your activists, your local knowledge? Dumb.
  • viewcode said:

    They told you it was a double espresso. In reality they gargled the milk. Don't ask about the sprinkled chocolate... :)

    Speaking resriohsly, the rise of coffee culture had ruined local caffs. It used to be you'd go in, grab a tea and cheese on toast, have it in a proper mug and cutlery, and you could sit down for 30mins and watch the world go by for ridiculously little money. Now you have to wait ten minutes in the queue because every single person in the world cannot function without their decadent overprepared coffee that takes ages to prepare and longer to spell. And you need a mortgage for a sandwich. Aaargh!

    (Grumpy viewcode mode off now... :) )
    Also, somehow, any place with a fancy coffee machine is completely clueless when it comes to making tea. It's no good giving me a glass of hot water and a teabag in its packet.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,533
    edited February 2019
    Starbucks? Awful places. Sterile and ridiculously overpriced. And I say that as a Remainer.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Don't. The Tories won't win Streatham, it's way less than a 4% chance.
    Indeed. Even if Labour split 50%+1 to 50%-1 which wouldn't happen the Tories would still be third on historic results.
  • This was said with Michael Gove sitting on the stage with her.

    https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1097841785173393409

    Didn’t farmers vote for Brexit?

    Looks like Brexit is about to shit on another constituency that voted Leave.

    The likes of Gove won’t be able to go out in public without a battalion of bodyguards.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    Are Tories waiting to jump just before PMQs tomorrow?

    Narrator : " They didn't.."

  • Didn’t farmers vote for Brexit?

    Looks like Brexit is about to shit on another constituency that voted Leave.

    The likes of Gove won’t be able to go out in public without a battalion of bodyguards.
    The NFU (halfheartedly) backed Remain in the referendum.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,967

    Didn’t farmers vote for Brexit?

    Looks like Brexit is about to shit on another constituency that voted Leave.

    The likes of Gove won’t be able to go out in public without a battalion of bodyguards.
    Further underlines how no deal is one gigantic bluff. The bluff itself is doing damage enough.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Maybe Ladbrokes understood that too!!

    EDIT Although I'd say it were a daft decision to make in advance. Wave goodbye to your activists, your local knowledge? Dumb.
    Unlikely that many activists would have followed them though.
  • Scott_P said:
    If that is expectations management there is a risk that it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

    Brexit in 921 hours.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,240
    justin124 said:

    Unlikely that many activists would have followed them though.
    It will vary constituency by constituency, but the personal relationships will be with the ones who know how things work and how to run a campaign (as opposed to the newcomers agitating for the VONC)....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,096
    kinabalu said:

    Starbucks? Awful places. Sterile and ridiculously overpriced. And I say that as a Remainer.

    I don't think the view from my local Costa can be beaten : https://tinyurl.com/yxpykfme . No, I've never visited.
  • Scott_P said:
    Well we all know that is the truth.
  • Pulpstar said:

    I don't think the view from my local Costa can be beaten : https://tinyurl.com/yxpykfme . No, I've never visited.
    Looks idyllic.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,974
    Scott_P said:
    Farage could credibly make the same claim...
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    It will vary constituency by constituency, but the personal relationships will be with the ones who know how things work and how to run a campaign (as opposed to the newcomers agitating for the VONC)....
    I suspect that most activists will feel betrayed.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited February 2019
    So McDonnell says we must listen to the disgruntled, Jezza says they must listen to me.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,647
    Exactly. He and all his followers did so they should be happy.

    But it irks, or is strange then, when some (I think @justin124 on here, but I could be mistaken in which case apols) then tell us what they should and shouldn't do, or how they should or shouldn't vote. That is the bit that makes no sense.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,647
    Oh and btw easily the best username on PB.
  • Listening to him at the Q and A session at the manufacturers conference he just does not care and is locked in his straight jacket of hard left views. This can only end in more defections and as far as McDonnell is concerned he is fobbing people off, and what's more it is so transparent.

    It Soubry and Wollaston defect it will just confirm TIG are a group of remainers and to succeed they need to be a much broader church
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,967
    The question of what this does to the fight against Brexit is honestly an open one. You can go either way. But probably that assessment is based as much on hopes as calculation. The truth is it was emotionally encouraging to see today's presentation. For once, something active and positive was being undertaken. People were admitting out loud what anyone with eyes could see: That the system is broken and failing. That it has to change. And it would have taken a cold and brutalised tribal political heart to resist feeling some joy at that.

    http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/02/18/labour-split-the-head-says-no-the-heart-says-yes
  • New Thread...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,974
    HYUFD said:

    If Biden runs that hits Harris as he is fishing in the same stream of moderate primary voters, while she deprives him of the black vote. Sanders running hits Warren as he will take left liberal voters from her
    An unnecessarily reductive view of things.

    They are actually all competing for all votes on offer - and polling has been quite clear that a large majority of Democrats will vote for whomever they think has the strongest chance of beating Trump, with ideology a secondary concern.

    And most, unless prompted to choose a candidate, are still undecided.
  • Listening to him at the Q and A session at the manufacturers conference he just does not care and is locked in his straight jacket of hard left views. This can only end in more defections and as far as McDonnell is concerned he is fobbing people off, and what's more it is so transparent.

    It Soubry and Wollaston defect it will just confirm TIG are a group of remainers and to succeed they need to be a much broader church
    Every group needs to have some things that it is for, and against, in order to distinguish itself against other groups. If TIG manage to be broad enough to encompass Remainers from Labour and the Tories then that is probably broad enough to be getting on with.

    Brexit is the political issue of the day. Any new political group is going to form around a clear idea of how it relates to Brexit. It's not going to reproduce the divisions within the existing parties.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,309
    edited February 2019

    It Soubry and Wollaston defect it will just confirm TIG are a group of remainers and to succeed they need to be a much broader church

    And if the only thing that unites them is Remain, than at some point — one way or another — the "party" will likely come to an end.

    If they have designs on post-Brexit politics they could do with some sensible Leavers joining, and get behind an attempt to steer the UK towards one of the more pragmatic forms of Leave.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,713
    kinabalu said:

    Starbucks? Awful places. Sterile and ridiculously overpriced. And I say that as a Remainer.

    I used to rather like Starbucks. I liked that, uniquely among the big chains, they would sell you a filter coffee, rather than an Americano, which is a British version of an Italian version of an American version of the same drink and almost twice as expensive. Then about three years ago they changed the recipe of their carrot cake and I discovered that the only reason I had really ever gone in was for the carrot cake, which had been excellent but.was sadly excellent no longer. Now I share everybody else's irritations with the place and consequently almost never go.
  • Precisely...
    They jumped too soon and will forever be defined by Brexit.
    https://www.lifestuff.xyz/blog/jumping-the-gun
    glw said:

    And if the only thing that unites them is Remain, than at some point — one way or another — the "party" will likely come to an end.

    If they have designs on post-Brexit politics they could do with some sensible Leavers joining, and get behind an attempt to steer the UK towards one of the more pragmatic forms of Leave.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    This was said with Michael Gove sitting on the stage with her.

    https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1097841785173393409

    But Gove voted for the deal....
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    SeanT said:

    You had to be here (and it was yesterday, I confess - there's so much news packed into every day, an hour feels like a week). Quite a few PB Leavers were saying Honda was a minor story, and would be overshadowed by the Gang of 7, and anyway it didn't matter, Honda were quitting for other reasons - this was to me far too blithe a reaction. Honda is Bad for Brexit.
    Yes, you were spot on. And those that tried to post the story down - deeply wrong.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    Is Quebec?

    Scotland has many more assets of statehood than Quebec. For starters, it has its own football, rugby and cricket teams - sport is an important standard bearer of nationhood.
  • According to the ONS, 74.7% of non-UK born people of working age are in employment, versus 76.3% of UK born people. 82.6% of EU born people and 86.1% of EU8 born people (aka 'Eastern Europeans') are working. Most categories of non-EU born immigrants also have higher rates of employment than UK born people; the notable exception is people born in Bangladesh and Pakistan, where the rate is 55.9%. One would assume much of the latter reflects low formal employment rates for women. Also, non UK born people are more likely to be students, so a good % of immigrants who are not working are studying. So I think the answer to your question is that at least three quarters of migrants come here to work, many of the others come here to study, and there is a group, from South Asia predominantly, who do not undertake paid work but may well have unpaid caring responsibilities (children, parents, parents in law). I doubt many of them are sitting on their arses watching Jeremy Kyle.
    If we have net immigration from the EU why is the number of people from the EU in work falling ?

    Likewise the increase in non-EU immigrants is far higher than the increase in non-EU workers.

    This hasn't always been the case but there's certainly been a detrimental change in recent years.
This discussion has been closed.