Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If TMay survives a confidence vote she’d be immune from anothe

1679111214

Comments

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    She needs votes. Repeating ‘I am right’ is not a proven strategy to influence and convince people. She is not changing minds.

    I honestly don't think she is trying to change the mind of the MPs at this point. I think she is just trying to make sure her deal lasts long enough to get voted on and voted down, rather than what some seem to be trying to do and get it pulled before MPs have to stand up and be counted against it officially.

    She will then have failed in her duty, but at least parliament will have officially judged her on that score, not her party or Cabinet alone.
    Her job, her duty is to put together a majority. Just imagine what a successful PM would be doing now. Blair would have had JRM onside by now.
    You mean the love-in that Tony had with Jeremy....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,301

    kle4 said:

    The only way May can get this deal through is via a referendum. To pretend anything else is risking no deal and a risk no prime minister should take with our livelihoods.

    She cannot very well insist upon a referendum until such time as Parliament has actually followed through on their words and voted down her deal.
    No, but I suspect that's what she would do if she cannot get the HoC to approve this deal - put it to a referendum.
    The odds on a second referendum must have improved considerably - particularly as though it appears quite a large majority of the electorate now want one (which is a big change from where they were before this contretemps).
  • Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    She needs votes. Repeating ‘I am right’ is not a proven strategy to influence and convince people. She is not changing minds.

    I honestly don't think she is trying to change the mind of the MPs at this point. I think she is just trying to make sure her deal lasts long enough to get voted on and voted down, rather than what some seem to be trying to do and get it pulled before MPs have to stand up and be counted against it officially.

    She will then have failed in her duty, but at least parliament will have officially judged her on that score, not her party or Cabinet alone.
    Her job, her duty is to put together a majority. Just imagine what a successful PM would be doing now. Blair would have had JRM onside by now.
    Blair never ever had as hard a task as Brexit to manage and had majorities of at least 50 throughout his whole tenure. Oh and a booming economy.

    We have no idea what Blair would have done because Blair was never tested quite like this.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    dixiedean said:

    She keeps saying we agreed as a Cabinet. Apart from those who didn't that is.

    Yes - and your point?
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited November 2018
    The way round this is to implement a WTO Brexit and negotiate a trade deal and withdrawal agreement from that position. Fait accompli.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181

    kle4 said:

    The only way May can get this deal through is via a referendum. To pretend anything else is risking no deal and a risk no prime minister should take with our livelihoods.

    She cannot very well insist upon a referendum until such time as Parliament has actually followed through on their words and voted down her deal.
    No, but I suspect that's what she would do if she cannot get the HoC to approve this deal - put it to a referendum.
    I'm not sure if she will quit at that point or offer a referendum . I do think a referendum is coming.

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Re delusion. There is tenacity. There is digging in.
    And then there is an inability to clearly perceive the situation.

    What about her suggests she has not perceived the situation? Not resigning or changing course does not indicate that, only that she intends to stick to what she believes to be the best deal, and it is for others to remove her if they don't like that. Until they formally remove her, moaning on twitter or to the press means nothing.
    What was the point of this press conference?
    To reiterate her position on a day of multiple Cabinet resignations, I assume. What of it?
    Because she's often been accused of being tin-eared, particularly in declarations that nothing has changed in the face of reality. Right now when her future is somewhat on the wire, she's decided to do a repeat performance to help remind waverers why they don't want her to be unmovable for a year. So to me, unless she has some motivation I don't understand, that implies that there's some aspect of this she hasn't perceived
    There is an alternative explanation - she perceives it fine, but she does not have the capacity to do anything else (other than just quit, but she clearly feels it is up to the party to fire her). That is one of her major shortcomings as a leader after all.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749
    Its been a busy day at the orofice, so need to catch up.

    Are we now officially in headless chicken mode? or do we need @SeanT to lead on that?

    Nicely Green on Gove and Hunt, Mordaunt, but not BoJo or the Moggster.
  • Yorkcity said:

    What a final response. She is amazing

    Big g she really is not , she has become delusional to the reality staring her in the face.
    No one could do any better in these circumstances

    I have said it a few times today but not had a definitive answer but I understand the government is going to call amendments before voting on the deal and one of those must be for a second referendum. That is likely to be lost leaving deal or no deal

    In those circumstances this deal would go through

    I am ready to be corrected over the meaningful vote procedure but if this is the case it would give credence to why TM is saying no second referendum as she knows it will fall before the meaningful vote
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited November 2018
    Good old Gove, reel May in with just enough hope that Nothing Has Changed, and then, under cover of darkness...

    He strikes

    Measure twice, cut once.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    Gove expected to resign tonight

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes

    That has to be it, surely....
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    What I did find offensive what that she repeatedly insisted that 'people voted to leave'. 48% voted to stay. It's very clear that she doesn't give a damn about our views, or care that we are gravely concerned about the routte the country is taking.

    I agree , it was always a conservative in fight. Nobody outside that really gave a damn about leaving the EU.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Sam Coates Times
    ‏Verified account @SamCoatesTimes
    3m3 minutes ago

    Source says No 10 are now expecting Gove to resign tonight...

    No 10 say no comment
  • DavidL said:

    Don't agree with Ken Clarke but we seriously missed out not having him as PM. A class act.

    I couldn't possibly comment on my opinion.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    Foxy said:

    Its been a busy day at the orofice.

    Cripes, that is a hell of a day!

    Yes, we are in headless chicken mode. May has no counter to the opposition but is digging in, so it's a clusterf*ck.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:


    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    9m9 minutes ago

    New @skydata poll:
    Of the three Brexit outcomes Theresa May says are available, would you prefer a) her deal, b) no deal or c) no Brexit?
    No Brexit 54%
    No deal 32%
    Her deal 14%

    Confirmation No Deal kills Brexit, less than a third back it. Even No Deal plus Deal only gets to 46% though and Remain still wins
    I would personally vote for Her deal first then Remain over No Deal
    And me
    And me
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    edited November 2018
    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Re delusion. There is tenacity. There is digging in.
    And then there is an inability to clearly perceive the situation.

    What about her suggests she has not perceived the situation? Not resigning or changing course does not indicate that, only that she intends to stick to what she believes to be the best deal, and it is for others to remove her if they don't like that. Until they formally remove her, moaning on twitter or to the press means nothing.
    Merely repeating the lines which were roundly derided in the Commons. No new ideas or arguments. That is what.
    That's an argument she is crap, and doesn't have a way out of it, it does not argue that she is mentally delusional. People are suggesting she has serious mental deficiencies just because she is being foolishly stubborn. I'm sorry, I'm not generally precious about language, but I find jumping to mental health accusations because she is being stubborn very disquieting.
    I'm sorry. I was not suggesting anything of the sort. I do not think she has any mental issues at all. You must be mistaking me for someone else.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    The way round this is to implement a WTO Brexit and negotiate a trade deal and withdrawal agreement from that position. Fait accompli.
    ... and economy trashed.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    Scott_P said:
    I can't see what would actually make TM stand down without being forced. Possibly only an election defeat (you know a proper one where JC becomes PM) or a referendum defeat.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:


    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    9m9 minutes ago

    New @skydata poll:
    Of the three Brexit outcomes Theresa May says are available, would you prefer a) her deal, b) no deal or c) no Brexit?
    No Brexit 54%
    No deal 32%
    Her deal 14%

    Confirmation No Deal kills Brexit, less than a third back it. Even No Deal plus Deal only gets to 46% though and Remain still wins
    I would personally vote for Her deal first then Remain over No Deal
    And me
    Are remainers moving their position from Remain to a May's deal?
    The one that no I would say is that if we went into no deal I imagine we would get a quick deal for a FTA compared to Canada for example, as we currently have regulatory equivalence. The only reason I can see that it hasn’t happened is that the EU want to punish and put us through the wringer, but if we went through the trauma of no deal, and EU states and businesses started to suffer I think there would be quick progress.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Gove likes to be the one who lands the killing blow, doesn't he?

    I think it's his "thing".
  • Yorkcity said:

    What a final response. She is amazing

    Big g she really is not , she has become delusional to the reality staring her in the face.
    No one could do any better in these circumstances

    I have said it a few times today but not had a definitive answer but I understand the government is going to call amendments before voting on the deal and one of those must be for a second referendum. That is likely to be lost leaving deal or no deal

    In those circumstances this deal would go through

    I am ready to be corrected over the meaningful vote procedure but if this is the case it would give credence to why TM is saying no second referendum as she knows it will fall before the meaningful vote
    I think you are right that the exact sequence of votes and the exact amendments put forward are crucial to how this might pan out in a parliamentary vote (assuming we get that far!)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,301

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:


    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    9m9 minutes ago

    New @skydata poll:
    Of the three Brexit outcomes Theresa May says are available, would you prefer a) her deal, b) no deal or c) no Brexit?
    No Brexit 54%
    No deal 32%
    Her deal 14%

    Confirmation No Deal kills Brexit, less than a third back it. Even No Deal plus Deal only gets to 46% though and Remain still wins
    I would personally vote for Her deal first then Remain over No Deal
    And me
    And me
    No, I am Spartacus.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    As Geoffrey Boycott weighed in yet on his thoughts on May's deal?
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:


    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    9m9 minutes ago

    New @skydata poll:
    Of the three Brexit outcomes Theresa May says are available, would you prefer a) her deal, b) no deal or c) no Brexit?
    No Brexit 54%
    No deal 32%
    Her deal 14%

    Confirmation No Deal kills Brexit, less than a third back it. Even No Deal plus Deal only gets to 46% though and Remain still wins
    I would personally vote for Her deal first then Remain over No Deal
    And me
    Are remainers moving their position from Remain to a May's deal?
    The one that no I would say is that if we went into no deal I imagine we would get a quick deal for a FTA compared to Canada for example, as we currently have regulatory equivalence. The only reason I can see that it hasn’t happened is that the EU want to punish and put us through the wringer, but if we went through the trauma of no deal, and EU states and businesses started to suffer I think there would be quick progress.
    Are you feeling lucky?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    kle4 said:

    As Geoffrey Boycott weighed in yet on his thoughts on May's deal?

    Haha, somehow I expect he's a fully paid up member of the ERG.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,677
    JohnO said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    She needs votes. Repeating ‘I am right’ is not a proven strategy to influence and convince people. She is not changing minds.

    I honestly don't think she is trying to change the mind of the MPs at this point. I think she is just trying to make sure her deal lasts long enough to get voted on and voted down, rather than what some seem to be trying to do and get it pulled before MPs have to stand up and be counted against it officially.

    She will then have failed in her duty, but at least parliament will have officially judged her on that score, not her party or Cabinet alone.
    Her job, her duty is to put together a majority. Just imagine what a successful PM would be doing now. Blair would have had JRM onside by now.
    You mean the love-in that Tony had with Jeremy....
    The point is simply repeating "I am right", "I am right" is not likely to win the argument.

    As PM it is her duty not just to present a bill to parliament, but to find a majority for it.

    She will need to listen, convince and may be change. At the moment she is not listening to anyone.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    David Cameron
    ‏Verified account @David_Cameron
    4 May 2015

    Britain faces a simple and inescapable choice - stability and strong Government with me, or chaos with Ed Miliband: https://www.facebook.com/DavidCameronOfficial/posts/979082725449379
    1,756 replies . 14,876 retweets 9,149 likes
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    I like the hard turn in the middle of Lammy's tweet

    The Prime Minister did not resign today, but she is the walking dead. Her deal has been rejected by all sides, and she has nowhere left to turn. Millions are now crying out for new direction and the chance to remain in the EU.

    It's been rejected by all sides, but the only ones who matter are the ones who want a chance to remain?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    kle4 said:
    There is no way they can comment on speculation about a cabinet members possible decision, whatever they know or don't know.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329

    The way round this is to implement a WTO Brexit and negotiate a trade deal and withdrawal agreement from that position. Fait accompli.
    I voted remain but I have always argued we should ho our the result and the only way to negotiate without getting into the mess we have was from the position of no deal. We needed to state that we would leave with no deal and negotiate anything above that as a deal. That would have been clear all along, and people could plan.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    kle4 said:
    The Tories are an absolute shambles. They are wrecking this country every single day with this self created farce. The sooner this lot is ejected from power, the better. End of!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    She needs votes. Repeating ‘I am right’ is not a proven strategy to influence and convince people. She is not changing minds.

    I honestly don't think she is trying to change the mind of the MPs at this point. I think she is just trying to make sure her deal lasts long enough to get voted on and voted down, rather than what some seem to be trying to do and get it pulled before MPs have to stand up and be counted against it officially.

    She will then have failed in her duty, but at least parliament will have officially judged her on that score, not her party or Cabinet alone.
    Her job, her duty is to put together a majority. Just imagine what a successful PM would be doing now. Blair would have had JRM onside by now.
    You mean the love-in that Tony had with Jeremy....
    The point is simply repeating "I am right", "I am right" is not likely to win the argument.

    As PM it is her duty not just to present a bill to parliament, but to find a majority for it.

    She will need to listen, convince and may be change. At the moment she is not listening to anyone.
    You are ignoring that the deal was agreed as draft with the EU - there's no point to her 'changing' position if that would not be acceptable to the EU. She could agree to do exactly what the ERG and DUP want and maybe get a majority on her deal, what would that accomplish?
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,081
    RoyalBlue said:

    Have checked out for 4 hours. Has anything exciting happened?

    I logged off last night whilst PBers were reporting snippets from the text of the deal and finding unusual common ground that it would be OK for most of the country.

    I logged on again this afternoon to find a foreign land where everyone was berating the Leavers.

    Hopefully the common ground will eventually gain recognition & acceptance.

    Good evening, everyone.
  • Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    She needs votes. Repeating ‘I am right’ is not a proven strategy to influence and convince people. She is not changing minds.

    I honestly don't think she is trying to change the mind of the MPs at this point. I think she is just trying to make sure her deal lasts long enough to get voted on and voted down, rather than what some seem to be trying to do and get it pulled before MPs have to stand up and be counted against it officially.

    She will then have failed in her duty, but at least parliament will have officially judged her on that score, not her party or Cabinet alone.
    Her job, her duty is to put together a majority. Just imagine what a successful PM would be doing now. Blair would have had JRM onside by now.
    You mean the love-in that Tony had with Jeremy....
    The point is simply repeating "I am right", "I am right" is not likely to win the argument.

    As PM it is her duty not just to present a bill to parliament, but to find a majority for it.

    She will need to listen, convince and may be change. At the moment she is not listening to anyone.
    She has listened to so many people already she's finding its a compromise none of them will back. That's the centre ground for you
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    murali_s said:

    kle4 said:
    The Tories are an absolute shambles. They are wrecking this country every single day with this self created farce. The sooner this lot is ejected from power, the better. End of!
    Apart from Brexit everything else seems to be ticking along quite nicely. :p
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181

    kle4 said:

    As Geoffrey Boycott weighed in yet on his thoughts on May's deal?

    Haha, somehow I expect he's a fully paid up member of the ERG.
    He's not a fan of continuity remainers, I recall that much.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:


    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    9m9 minutes ago

    New @skydata poll:
    Of the three Brexit outcomes Theresa May says are available, would you prefer a) her deal, b) no deal or c) no Brexit?
    No Brexit 54%
    No deal 32%
    Her deal 14%

    Confirmation No Deal kills Brexit, less than a third back it. Even No Deal plus Deal only gets to 46% though and Remain still wins
    I would personally vote for Her deal first then Remain over No Deal
    And me
    And me
    No, I am Spartacus.
    I'm not Spartacus but I like his style.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749
    RobD said:

    murali_s said:

    kle4 said:
    The Tories are an absolute shambles. They are wrecking this country every single day with this self created farce. The sooner this lot is ejected from power, the better. End of!
    Apart from Brexit everything else seems to be ticking along quite nicely. :p
    Apart from that, Mrs Lincoln, how did you enjoy the show?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    murali_s said:

    kle4 said:
    The Tories are an absolute shambles. They are wrecking this country every single day with this self created farce. The sooner this lot is ejected from power, the better. End of!
    Corbyn should back the deal with a GE as the price then!
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    murali_s said:

    kle4 said:
    The Tories are an absolute shambles. They are wrecking this country every single day with this self created farce. The sooner this lot is ejected from power, the better. End of!
    And Corbyn and McDonnell could do a better job could they?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    kjohnw said:



    murali_s said:

    kle4 said:
    The Tories are an absolute shambles. They are wrecking this country every single day with this self created farce. The sooner this lot is ejected from power, the better. End of!
    And Corbyn and McDonnell could do a better job could they?
    Could well be!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    kjohnw said:



    murali_s said:

    kle4 said:
    The Tories are an absolute shambles. They are wrecking this country every single day with this self created farce. The sooner this lot is ejected from power, the better. End of!
    And Corbyn and McDonnell could do a better job could they?
    That's a truly offensive avatar btw.
  • JayWJayW Posts: 33
    I had a hunch that Brexit would be the Gammon Waterloo.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:


    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    9m9 minutes ago

    New @skydata poll:
    Of the three Brexit outcomes Theresa May says are available, would you prefer a) her deal, b) no deal or c) no Brexit?
    No Brexit 54%
    No deal 32%
    Her deal 14%

    Confirmation No Deal kills Brexit, less than a third back it. Even No Deal plus Deal only gets to 46% though and Remain still wins
    I would personally vote for Her deal first then Remain over No Deal
    And me
    And me
    No, I am Spartacus.
    I'm Spartacus and so's my wife..
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    JayW said:

    I had a hunch that Brexit would be the Gammon Waterloo.

    What does that even mean?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749
    JayW said:

    I had a hunch that Brexit would be the Gammon Waterloo.

    Are we waiting on the Prussians to finish the job?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited November 2018
    May is either going to have to keep Brexit Secretary vacant (looks ridiculous) or appoint a remainer (and further antagonise the noisy majority of her party baying for her blood).

    Can't imagine any brexiteer touching that job with a shitty stick now.
  • Good evening, Miss JGP.

    I must be off, but I was leaving anyway :p
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    She needs votes. Repeating ‘I am right’ is not a proven strategy to influence and convince people. She is not changing minds.

    I honestly don't think she is trying to change the mind of the MPs at this point. I think she is just trying to make sure her deal lasts long enough to get voted on and voted down, rather than what some seem to be trying to do and get it pulled before MPs have to stand up and be counted against it officially.

    She will then have failed in her duty, but at least parliament will have officially judged her on that score, not her party or Cabinet alone.
    Her job, her duty is to put together a majority. Just imagine what a successful PM would be doing now. Blair would have had JRM onside by now.
    You mean the love-in that Tony had with Jeremy....
    The point is simply repeating "I am right", "I am right" is not likely to win the argument.

    As PM it is her duty not just to present a bill to parliament, but to find a majority for it.

    She will need to listen, convince and may be change. At the moment she is not listening to anyone.
    But to whom should she listen? JR-M And Soubry? Starmer but not Corbyn? Dobbs and Blackford? Let’s get real. Her duty is to present what she believes to be the best outcome for the country and then MPs to fulfill their obligations in either supporting or rejecting her proposals.

    Like everyone else, I am certain that these will be rejected but that’s hardly her fault. Assuming she’s still Tory Leader and PM, it’s what she and the govt does next, is how they will be judged.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    kle4 said:

    I like the hard turn in the middle of Lammy's tweet

    The Prime Minister did not resign today, but she is the walking dead. Her deal has been rejected by all sides, and she has nowhere left to turn. Millions are now crying out for new direction and the chance to remain in the EU.

    It's been rejected by all sides, but the only ones who matter are the ones who want a chance to remain?

    Did he send it at 11.11?

    I'm glad it was a quiet day today. I said no cabinet ministers could resign without losing all credibility and I was right.

    It is rather nice than non-teachers finally understand how we all feel about Gove.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    JayW said:

    I had a hunch that Brexit would be the Gammon Waterloo.

    I hope your other 8 posts are not as bad as this one
  • I would like those opposed to this agreement to specifically and clearly state what they object to and to indicate how a better agreement could have been reached. I think that official Labour is proposing 100% BINO no advantages over memebership but clear disadvantages. Clearly not honouring the vote. From EMG it appears to be fantasy negotiations or WTO and negotiate like hell to try and reduce damage. Even a "normal" FT agreement would play merry hell with supply chains. She's actually done a good job and all the arrogant self-serving and deluded bastards who think they are moving in for the kill deserve to fail.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181

    May is either going to have to keep Brexit Secretary vacant (looks ridiculous) or appoint a remainer (and further antagonise the noisy majority of her party baying for her blood).

    Can't imagine any brexiteer touching that job with a shitty stick now.

    It absolutely should be vacant - she's been clear she's leading the negotiations anyway, and no one else has the time to absorb all the detail, and as you point out she probably cannot appoint someone to mollify the leaver side of the party anyway.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:


    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    9m9 minutes ago

    New @skydata poll:
    Of the three Brexit outcomes Theresa May says are available, would you prefer a) her deal, b) no deal or c) no Brexit?
    No Brexit 54%
    No deal 32%
    Her deal 14%

    Confirmation No Deal kills Brexit, less than a third back it. Even No Deal plus Deal only gets to 46% though and Remain still wins
    I would personally vote for Her deal first then Remain over No Deal
    And me
    Are remainers moving their position from Remain to a May's deal?
    The one that no I would say is that if we went into no deal I imagine we would get a quick deal for a FTA compared to Canada for example, as we currently have regulatory equivalence. The only reason I can see that it hasn’t happened is that the EU want to punish and put us through the wringer, but if we went through the trauma of no deal, and EU states and businesses started to suffer I think there would be quick progress.
    Are you feeling lucky?
    Not really. Do you really think what everyone has planned is very different from the current arrangement. The services thing is a red herring as it is unlikely my hairdresser or window cleaner, or their local solicitor and accountant are going to be doing business in Europe.

    So it is down to products which are governed by British standards that reflect the European equivalent. Unless I am misreading it the only thing stopping this is the EU dont want to encourage others to leave. So we must suffer, and probably best by the proposed deal tying our hands on trade, or by a punishing no deal experience. We are a leading economy so they would still want to trade.
  • JayWJayW Posts: 33

    JayW said:

    I had a hunch that Brexit would be the Gammon Waterloo.

    What does that even mean?
    A last gasp mobilization for the outdated reactionary attitudes exemplified by ruddy-complexioned well-upholstered boomer males, before they are utterly crushed.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    AnneJGP said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Have checked out for 4 hours. Has anything exciting happened?

    I logged off last night whilst PBers were reporting snippets from the text of the deal and finding unusual common ground that it would be OK for most of the country.

    I logged on again this afternoon to find a foreign land where everyone was berating the Leavers.

    Hopefully the common ground will eventually gain recognition & acceptance.

    Good evening, everyone.
    It is strange that most on here saw the deal as a reasonable compromise but the ERG and DUP have thrown their toys out of the pram and Labour are cynically pursuing the chance of a GE.

    I wonder if over the next couple of weeks saner voices will be heard in Westminster. I think TMay was right to say that people justwant this done.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    JayW said:

    JayW said:

    I had a hunch that Brexit would be the Gammon Waterloo.

    What does that even mean?
    A last gasp mobilization for the outdated reactionary attitudes exemplified by ruddy-complexioned well-upholstered boomer males, before they are utterly crushed.
    Let’s hope your next 10 posts display more insight and less prejudice.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951

    kjohnw said:



    murali_s said:

    kle4 said:
    The Tories are an absolute shambles. They are wrecking this country every single day with this self created farce. The sooner this lot is ejected from power, the better. End of!
    And Corbyn and McDonnell could do a better job could they?
    That's a truly offensive avatar btw.
    Indeed it is. However bad the EU may be, they're not that.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    JayW said:

    JayW said:

    I had a hunch that Brexit would be the Gammon Waterloo.

    What does that even mean?
    A last gasp mobilization for the outdated reactionary attitudes exemplified by ruddy-complexioned well-upholstered boomer males, before they are utterly crushed.
    Mmmm so they are on Napoleon's side not Wellington's?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453


    The way round this is to implement a WTO Brexit and negotiate a trade deal and withdrawal agreement from that position. Fait accompli.

    So we run out of food and medicine, then beg the EU for a deal.

    What a fucking brilliant idea. Why did nobody else think of this...?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    kyf_100 said:

    kjohnw said:



    murali_s said:

    kle4 said:
    The Tories are an absolute shambles. They are wrecking this country every single day with this self created farce. The sooner this lot is ejected from power, the better. End of!
    And Corbyn and McDonnell could do a better job could they?
    That's a truly offensive avatar btw.
    Indeed it is. However bad the EU may be, they're not that.
    There must be some avatar rules? Moderators?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181

    AnneJGP said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Have checked out for 4 hours. Has anything exciting happened?

    I logged off last night whilst PBers were reporting snippets from the text of the deal and finding unusual common ground that it would be OK for most of the country.

    I logged on again this afternoon to find a foreign land where everyone was berating the Leavers.

    Hopefully the common ground will eventually gain recognition & acceptance.

    Good evening, everyone.
    It is strange that most on here saw the deal as a reasonable compromise but the ERG and DUP have thrown their toys out of the pram and Labour are cynically pursuing the chance of a GE.

    I wonder if over the next couple of weeks saner voices will be heard in Westminster. I think TMay was right to say that people justwant this done.
    The theory of some is that it will get voted down and only then, after other options fail, will it be returned too and MPs will approve it.

    I cannot credit that as plausible - people aren't merely saying it is a bad deal, on left and right they are calling it a capitulation, humiliation, and so on. People can do remarkable u-turns on a position, but if someone had even a shred of doubt they would surely be more careful in their criticism.
  • JayW said:

    I had a hunch that Brexit would be the Gammon Waterloo.

    What does that even mean?
    I think it means that anyone who doesn't agree with JayW is a fat, red faced, racist xenophobe who is beneath contempt and shouldn't have a vote, but I may be wrong.
  • kyf_100 said:

    kjohnw said:



    murali_s said:

    kle4 said:
    The Tories are an absolute shambles. They are wrecking this country every single day with this self created farce. The sooner this lot is ejected from power, the better. End of!
    And Corbyn and McDonnell could do a better job could they?
    That's a truly offensive avatar btw.
    Indeed it is. However bad the EU may be, they're not that.
    Bang out of order....
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    May is dogged. She'll stick around and win any leadership battle. As things stand her position will be interpreted as determined, but a couple more wrong moves and public perception could easily shift to deluded. If she can see through this week then much like the week after the GE she'll be safe for a while, deal or no deal.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    JayW said:

    I had a hunch that Brexit would be the Gammon Waterloo.

    What does that even mean?
    I think it means that anyone who doesn't agree with JayW is a fat, red faced, racist xenophobe who is beneath contempt and shouldn't have a vote, but I may be wrong.
    I think you've got it. Sounds like he was cut'n'pasting from the Momentum playbook.

    Good to have diversity of opinions on PB, I guess.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    I like the hard turn in the middle of Lammy's tweet

    The Prime Minister did not resign today, but she is the walking dead. Her deal has been rejected by all sides, and she has nowhere left to turn. Millions are now crying out for new direction and the chance to remain in the EU.

    It's been rejected by all sides, but the only ones who matter are the ones who want a chance to remain?

    Did he send it at 11.11?

    I'm glad it was a quiet day today. I said no cabinet ministers could resign without losing all credibility and I was right.

    It is rather nice than non-teachers finally understand how we all feel about Gove.
    Gove is a duplicitous double dealing back stabbing tw#t
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    AnneJGP said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Have checked out for 4 hours. Has anything exciting happened?

    I logged off last night whilst PBers were reporting snippets from the text of the deal and finding unusual common ground that it would be OK for most of the country.

    I logged on again this afternoon to find a foreign land where everyone was berating the Leavers.

    Hopefully the common ground will eventually gain recognition & acceptance.

    Good evening, everyone.
    It is strange that most on here saw the deal as a reasonable compromise but the ERG and DUP have thrown their toys out of the pram and Labour are cynically pursuing the chance of a GE.

    I wonder if over the next couple of weeks saner voices will be heard in Westminster. I think TMay was right to say that people justwant this done.
    Good grief. Corbyn really has misplayed this.

    What would concern me is that most of us are articulate, well-informed on political matters, fairly intelligent and have read the document with a reasonable chance of understanding it. Most voters will not have read it and have only the haziest ideas of some of the issues at stake. So they may lap up the silly sound bites of Mogg or Corbyn. Indeed, initial polling isn't encouraging.

    The point is this is a pretty good compromise in many ways. But I remember I wrote an essay for A-level about how the Whig governments of Grey and Melbourne lost popularity by producing policies too timid to please the radicals and yet too liberal for the reactionaries even though many could be justified on their merits. Perhaps May has fallen into the same trap.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Gove resigning?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited November 2018
    Yorkcity said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    I like the hard turn in the middle of Lammy's tweet

    The Prime Minister did not resign today, but she is the walking dead. Her deal has been rejected by all sides, and she has nowhere left to turn. Millions are now crying out for new direction and the chance to remain in the EU.

    It's been rejected by all sides, but the only ones who matter are the ones who want a chance to remain?

    Did he send it at 11.11?

    I'm glad it was a quiet day today. I said no cabinet ministers could resign without losing all credibility and I was right.

    It is rather nice than non-teachers finally understand how we all feel about Gove.
    Gove is a duplicitous double dealing back stabbing tw#t
    Unfair officer.

    Please apologise to all duplicitous double dealing back stabbing tw#ts immediately.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Yorkcity said:



    Gove is a duplicitous double dealing back stabbing tw#t

    Gove has a knack for being the one holding the knife that makes the coup de grace.

    As, I think, he intends to demonstrate this evening.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Brom said:

    May is dogged. She'll stick around and win any leadership battle. As things stand her position will be interpreted as determined, but a couple more wrong moves and public perception could easily shift to deluded. If she can see through this week then much like the week after the GE she'll be safe for a while, deal or no deal.

    I think that's right. She does provoke a 'doing the best in difficult circumstances' view from large swathes of the population. The more she is attacked, the more sympathy she might get.

    It was also a plus that she did not come across as flaky or emotional even though she's clearly had a shit day at the office. I think she may swing public opinion behind her.
  • "I understand @PennyMordaunt is in No10 right now pushing the PM AGAIN to back a free vote on her Brexit deal.
    Thinks it will avoid need for PM to quit if she loses the meaningful vote."

    If May wants to gamble, maybe she hopes this forces Labour to offer a free vote.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749

    JayW said:

    JayW said:

    I had a hunch that Brexit would be the Gammon Waterloo.

    What does that even mean?
    A last gasp mobilization for the outdated reactionary attitudes exemplified by ruddy-complexioned well-upholstered boomer males, before they are utterly crushed.
    Mmmm so they are on Napoleon's side not Wellington's?
    As Wellington said when watching his troops sack a town "I don't know if they frighten the enemy, but by God they frighten me!"
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749

    JayW said:

    JayW said:

    I had a hunch that Brexit would be the Gammon Waterloo.

    What does that even mean?
    A last gasp mobilization for the outdated reactionary attitudes exemplified by ruddy-complexioned well-upholstered boomer males, before they are utterly crushed.
    Mmmm so they are on Napoleon's side not Wellington's?
    As Wellington said when watching his troops sack a town "I don't know if they frighten the enemy, but by God they frighten me!"
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Calling @TSE

    If Gove resigns, can I finally compare him to Mark Reckless?
  • May is either going to have to keep Brexit Secretary vacant (looks ridiculous) or appoint a remainer (and further antagonise the noisy majority of her party baying for her blood).

    Can't imagine any brexiteer touching that job with a shitty stick now.

    I’d give it to Anna Soubry just for the lols.
  • Foxy said:

    JayW said:

    JayW said:

    I had a hunch that Brexit would be the Gammon Waterloo.

    What does that even mean?
    A last gasp mobilization for the outdated reactionary attitudes exemplified by ruddy-complexioned well-upholstered boomer males, before they are utterly crushed.
    Mmmm so they are on Napoleon's side not Wellington's?
    As Wellington said when watching his troops sack a town "I don't know if they frighten the enemy, but by God they frighten me!"
    “It has been a damned nice thing — the nearest run thing you ever saw in your life.”

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/10/18/the-nearest-run-thing/
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Mordaunt's desperation to not have to resign is a little undignified.

    Just fucking do it, you yellow belly.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    ydoethur said:

    AnneJGP said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Have checked out for 4 hours. Has anything exciting happened?

    I logged off last night whilst PBers were reporting snippets from the text of the deal and finding unusual common ground that it would be OK for most of the country.

    I logged on again this afternoon to find a foreign land where everyone was berating the Leavers.

    Hopefully the common ground will eventually gain recognition & acceptance.

    Good evening, everyone.
    It is strange that most on here saw the deal as a reasonable compromise but the ERG and DUP have thrown their toys out of the pram and Labour are cynically pursuing the chance of a GE.

    I wonder if over the next couple of weeks saner voices will be heard in Westminster. I think TMay was right to say that people justwant this done.
    Good grief. Corbyn really has misplayed this.

    What would concern me is that most of us are articulate, well-informed on political matters, fairly intelligent and have read the document with a reasonable chance of understanding it. Most voters will not have read it and have only the haziest ideas of some of the issues at stake. So they may lap up the silly sound bites of Mogg or Corbyn. Indeed, initial polling isn't encouraging.

    The point is this is a pretty good compromise in many ways. But I remember I wrote an essay for A-level about how the Whig governments of Grey and Melbourne lost popularity by producing policies too timid to please the radicals and yet too liberal for the reactionaries even though many could be justified on their merits. Perhaps May has fallen into the same trap.
    I think that press conference will help. Gove resigning would probably help her too tbh.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited November 2018

    Brom said:

    May is dogged. She'll stick around and win any leadership battle. As things stand her position will be interpreted as determined, but a couple more wrong moves and public perception could easily shift to deluded. If she can see through this week then much like the week after the GE she'll be safe for a while, deal or no deal.

    I think that's right. She does provoke a 'doing the best in difficult circumstances' view from large swathes of the population. The more she is attacked, the more sympathy she might get.

    It was also a plus that she did not come across as flaky or emotional even though she's clearly had a shit day at the office. I think she may swing public opinion behind her.
    her reaction to keeping calling people George by mistake and the cricket answer at the end suggest she's still up for the fight. all the nearly sexist 'broken woman' comments don't look right to me after watching that news conference.
  • what's Fox up to anyway
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited November 2018
    kle4 said:

    As Geoffrey Boycott weighed in yet on his thoughts on May's deal?

    I think Boycott's position is home rule for Yorkshire.
  • ydoethur said:

    Calling @TSE

    If Gove resigns, can I finally compare him to Mark Reckless?

    For his betrayal of David Cameron I compared to Gove to Mark Reckless.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    May is either going to have to keep Brexit Secretary vacant (looks ridiculous) or appoint a remainer (and further antagonise the noisy majority of her party baying for her blood).

    Can't imagine any brexiteer touching that job with a shitty stick now.

    I’d give it to Anna Soubry just for the lols.
    That would be her Falklands moment.

    And she would suffer the same fate as Galtieri.

    There's trolling, and there's stupidity.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited November 2018

    what's Fox up to anyway

    who cares?

    It's disgraced national security risk Liam Fox.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    "I understand @PennyMordaunt is in No10 right now pushing the PM AGAIN to back a free vote on her Brexit deal.
    Thinks it will avoid need for PM to quit if she loses the meaningful vote."

    If May wants to gamble, maybe she hopes this forces Labour to offer a free vote.

    Actually, if she thinks she's going to lose the vote anyway, she might as well offer a free vote.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    AnneJGP said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Have checked out for 4 hours. Has anything exciting happened?

    I logged off last night whilst PBers were reporting snippets from the text of the deal and finding unusual common ground that it would be OK for most of the country.

    I logged on again this afternoon to find a foreign land where everyone was berating the Leavers.

    Hopefully the common ground will eventually gain recognition & acceptance.

    Good evening, everyone.
    It is strange that most on here saw the deal as a reasonable compromise but the ERG and DUP have thrown their toys out of the pram and Labour are cynically pursuing the chance of a GE.

    I wonder if over the next couple of weeks saner voices will be heard in Westminster. I think TMay was right to say that people justwant this done.
    Good grief. Corbyn really has misplayed this.

    What would concern me is that most of us are articulate, well-informed on political matters, fairly intelligent and have read the document with a reasonable chance of understanding it. Most voters will not have read it and have only the haziest ideas of some of the issues at stake. So they may lap up the silly sound bites of Mogg or Corbyn. Indeed, initial polling isn't encouraging.

    The point is this is a pretty good compromise in many ways. But I remember I wrote an essay for A-level about how the Whig governments of Grey and Melbourne lost popularity by producing policies too timid to please the radicals and yet too liberal for the reactionaries even though many could be justified on their merits. Perhaps May has fallen into the same trap.
    I think that press conference will help. Gove resigning would probably help her too tbh.
    Every teacher will be on board.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    Calling @TSE

    If Gove resigns, can I finally compare him to Mark Reckless?

    For his betrayal of David Cameron I compared to Gove to Mark Reckless.
    So I can say 'traitorous pig dog?'
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,690

    JayW said:

    I had a hunch that Brexit would be the Gammon Waterloo.

    What does that even mean?
    I think it means that anyone who doesn't agree with JayW is a fat, red faced, racist xenophobe who is beneath contempt and shouldn't have a vote, but I may be wrong.
    Angry old man I thought
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181

    "I understand @PennyMordaunt is in No10 right now pushing the PM AGAIN to back a free vote on her Brexit deal.
    Thinks it will avoid need for PM to quit if she loses the meaningful vote."

    If May wants to gamble, maybe she hopes this forces Labour to offer a free vote.

    Actually, if she thinks she's going to lose the vote anyway, she might as well offer a free vote.
    On an issue this important how could anyone not vote their conscience even if it were not a free vote?
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    edited November 2018
    ydoethur said:

    AnneJGP said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Have checked out for 4 hours. Has anything exciting happened?

    I logged off last night whilst PBers were reporting snippets from the text of the deal and finding unusual common ground that it would be OK for most of the country.

    I logged on again this afternoon to find a foreign land where everyone was berating the Leavers.

    Hopefully the common ground will eventually gain recognition & acceptance.

    Good evening, everyone.
    It is strange that most on here saw the deal as a reasonable compromise but the ERG and DUP have thrown their toys out of the pram and Labour are cynically pursuing the chance of a GE.

    I wonder if over the next couple of weeks saner voices will be heard in Westminster. I think TMay was right to say that people justwant this done.
    Good grief. Corbyn really has misplayed this.

    What would concern me is that most of us are articulate, well-informed on political matters, fairly intelligent and have read the document with a reasonable chance of understanding it. Most voters will not have read it and have only the haziest ideas of some of the issues at stake. So they may lap up the silly sound bites of Mogg or Corbyn. Indeed, initial polling isn't encouraging.

    The point is this is a pretty good compromise in many ways. But I remember I wrote an essay for A-level about how the Whig governments of Grey and Melbourne lost popularity by producing policies too timid to please the radicals and yet too liberal for the reactionaries even though many could be justified on their merits. Perhaps May has fallen into the same trap.
    I think this is right. May's deal is (was?) a good compromise, one that accurately reflected the extremely narrow margin by which Leave won, attempted to respect it as much as possible, and took us out of the barmier side of the EU while maintaining close economic ties.

    The trouble is most people don't spend their days hanging out on forums such as these discussing the minutiae of the policy.

    For what it's worth, most of the people I know IRL (a fair mix of remainers and leavers as well as a few Brendas from Bristol) think the deal was good, but they also think May is hopelessly incompetent and has lost control of the situation, therefore has to go. Most people I chatted to today believe it is a case of when, not if, she goes. She's been fatally weakened and no longer looks like a leader or able to deliver.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    Yougov finds voters back a second EU referendum if Parliament rejects May's Deal by a huge 64% to 36% margin

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/first-poll-since-brexit-deal-voters-want-a-new-referendum-a3990851.html?amp
  • "I understand @PennyMordaunt is in No10 right now pushing the PM AGAIN to back a free vote on her Brexit deal.
    Thinks it will avoid need for PM to quit if she loses the meaningful vote."

    If May wants to gamble, maybe she hopes this forces Labour to offer a free vote.

    Good idea for free vote from Mordaunt but she also wants deal re-negotiation which May will refuse.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238

    what's Fox up to anyway

    The last I read (Express) was that he had done a super duper trade deal with Sierra Leone.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    I like the hard turn in the middle of Lammy's tweet

    The Prime Minister did not resign today, but she is the walking dead. Her deal has been rejected by all sides, and she has nowhere left to turn. Millions are now crying out for new direction and the chance to remain in the EU.

    It's been rejected by all sides, but the only ones who matter are the ones who want a chance to remain?

    Did he send it at 11.11?

    I'm glad it was a quiet day today. I said no cabinet ministers could resign without losing all credibility and I was right.

    It is rather nice than non-teachers finally understand how we all feel about Gove.
    I’ve always rather liked Gove ( but then I am not a teacher). But this sucker is going down and sometimes you just have to go down with the ship.
  • Why has Grayling not resigned?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    "I understand @PennyMordaunt is in No10 right now pushing the PM AGAIN to back a free vote on her Brexit deal.
    Thinks it will avoid need for PM to quit if she loses the meaningful vote."

    If May wants to gamble, maybe she hopes this forces Labour to offer a free vote.

    Good idea for free vote from Mordaunt but she also wants deal re-negotiation which May will refuse.
    May will refuse both, and after a day a pathetic grovelling from Mordaunt to find a reason not to resign, she will have to do the right thing.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    ydoethur said:

    AnneJGP said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Have checked out for 4 hours. Has anything exciting happened?

    I logged off last night whilst PBers were reporting snippets from the text of the deal and finding unusual common ground that it would be OK for most of the country.

    I logged on again this afternoon to find a foreign land where everyone was berating the Leavers.

    Hopefully the common ground will eventually gain recognition & acceptance.

    Good evening, everyone.
    It is strange that most on here saw the deal as a reasonable compromise but the ERG and DUP have thrown their toys out of the pram and Labour are cynically pursuing the chance of a GE.

    I wonder if over the next couple of weeks saner voices will be heard in Westminster. I think TMay was right to say that people justwant this done.
    Good grief. Corbyn really has misplayed this.
    How so? Politically he is now well placed because his rebels do not appear to be keen to vote for the government, and a GE has risen in likelihood.
This discussion has been closed.