Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, has resigned 24 hours after the Brexit plan was revealed.
If he was being kept out the loop as Brexit secretary, he should have resigned on the basis he wasn't being allowed to do his job.
It cannot be the case that he didn't see the plan before it went to Cabinet. So how can he resign after Cabinet?
It makes no sense. Either he hated it before, in which case he shouldn't have even been in the Cabinet meeting. Or he changed his mind afterwards, in which case he's a dick.
The info in some of the press is that he got to see it just before cabinet, it was 500 pages. During cabinet stuff was revealed about what was in it that he had not had time to read and these meant resignation. Immediately after cabinet he saw the Chief Whip and told him he was resigning.
But if he wasn't seeing drafts - and there will have been many, many drafts of this - then he should have resigned before as he wasn't being allowed to do his job.
On a random thought I wish I have a fiver for every time I have read that one of the problems with our political system is that the MP's get whipped and this is bad for free thought and representing constituents. So here we have the ERG resisting whipping and as they believe representing their constituents and this is now a bad thing. Well just seems they can never win.
Irregular verb, minister
I represent my constituents. You stand up for your deeply-held principles despite the difficulties. He is a two-faced disloyal shit.
Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, has resigned 24 hours after the Brexit plan was revealed.
If he was being kept out the loop as Brexit secretary, he should have resigned on the basis he wasn't being allowed to do his job.
It cannot be the case that he didn't see the plan before it went to Cabinet. So how can he resign after Cabinet?
It makes no sense. Either he hated it before, in which case he shouldn't have even been in the Cabinet meeting. Or he changed his mind afterwards, in which case he's a dick.
Because as with Chequers, they all sat on their hands to see how it played out.
Being charitable, he might have wanted to give May a news cycle to get the message out before he shat on her (given his highly emollient tone today). But even that action may have been judged so he comes across as a nicer bloke than storming out au Helestine.
But that still requires him to have no idea what was in the agreement. In which case he should have resigned weeks ago.
Edit to add: I think your first point is right. He thought "well, it isn't perfect, but as everyone else is going along with it..." And then when people started to object, he suddenly got the courage of his convictions.
If he had resigned two weeks ago on the basis that he wasn't happy with the drafts that were being circulated, and he didn't think he'd be able to back the final deal, then that would be a principled resignation.
On a random thought I wish I have a fiver for every time I have read that one of the problems with our political system is that the MP's get whipped and this is bad for free thought and representing constituents. So here we have the ERG resisting whipping and as they believe representing their constituents and this is now a bad thing. Well just seems they can never win.
I actually respect their position of being willing to bring down the government if they truly believe what they are being asked to support is a terrible thing. On an issue this vital they should do that. Just as any Labour MPs who think no deal is terrible, and realise GE and referendum are risky, should at least consider voting for it even if it keeps the Tories in for now.
I look at the Tory and Labour front benches, at the ERG, at backbenchers who have achieved nothing in life popping up to talk utter shite and the only image that comes to mind is of ropes and lampposts... If in any future election a Tory canvasser comes to my house claiming that I must vote for them rather than Corbyn because of the chaos he will bring, they will live to regret it.......
So you won't follow through on the ropes and lampposts threat then?
Don't tempt me.....
Ropes and lampposts is very much an outside outcome, but it can't be ruled out (just because we're British and we don't do that sort of thing). The real tragedy of the whole Brexit saga is a willful failure of many politicians, mostly among the Brexiteers, to understand just how complex and interconnected developed-world societies and economies are today. It is quite possible that we've already gone too far, and our supply chains and food supplies are too brittle and any sort of natural event[1] or man-made accident could have far-reaching consequences. So a no-deal Brexit that could disrupt that complex and finely balanced web of relationships and trade could easily turn chaotic and spiral out of anyone's control.
Or, of course, quite possibly a no-deal Brexit might cause modest disruption, some economic distress at the time but overall something weatherable that, may not end up having a huge impact over the medium to long term (which JRM has defined as fifty years though!)
The scary thing is that so many seem to so blasé about embarking on the experiment! It's like the operators of Chernobyl experimenting with a working reactor's safety systems. They never expected it to lead to a meltdown, but it did.
Even in economies and societies far less developed than ours today, things can spiral out of control. No-one, not even those desired it and planned for it, expected the First World War become the bloodbath of millions and created communism as a viable political system, but it did.
So yes, ropes and lampposts is almost certainly hyperbole, but a no-deal Brexit would undeniably be a revolution. None of those who died under Robespierre's guillotines had the slightest inkling this would be their fate when they celebrated the tennis court oath. I hope none of the Brexiteers ever end up in a similar situation, but it could happen.
And a no deal Brexit is *still* the only possible outcome if nothing is done to prevent it between now and 30 March 2019.
[1] If you read up on the Carrington Event of 1859 and don't break out in a cold sweat at the prospect of it happening again in your lifetime, you're a braver man or woman than I.
I look at the Tory and Labour front benches, at the ERG, at backbenchers who have achieved nothing in life popping up to talk utter shite and the only image that comes to mind is of ropes and lampposts... If in any future election a Tory canvasser comes to my house claiming that I must vote for them rather than Corbyn because of the chaos he will bring, they will live to regret it.......
So you won't follow through on the ropes and lampposts threat then?
Don't tempt me.....
Well, living in Cumberland I know you would find it difficult!
Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, has resigned 24 hours after the Brexit plan was revealed.
If he was being kept out the loop as Brexit secretary, he should have resigned on the basis he wasn't being allowed to do his job.
It cannot be the case that he didn't see the plan before it went to Cabinet. So how can he resign after Cabinet?
It makes no sense. Either he hated it before, in which case he shouldn't have even been in the Cabinet meeting. Or he changed his mind afterwards, in which case he's a dick.
Because as with Chequers, they all sat on their hands to see how it played out.
Being charitable, he might have wanted to give May a news cycle to get the message out before he shat on her (given his highly emollient tone today). But even that action may have been judged so he comes across as a nicer bloke than storming out au Helestine.
But that still requires him to have no idea what was in the agreement. In which case he should have resigned weeks ago.
I can't find the detail, but IIRC he objected to words to the effect of 'Customs union will be the basis of the future agreement'
I think he's waiting to see which way the win is blowing - He'll go in the end.
Ultimately I don't think this will even go to 28 letters/VONC. I think the Cabinet will force her to resign in the end....
Hunt and Javid are key. If either of them resign she's done.
And yet...
7:25pm, and apparently still not 48 letters, never mind a head of steam for a full VoNC.
perhaps OGH's continual cry that the ERG are all piss and wind is looking correct tonight?
That's what I say. This won't get to VONC/28 letters. The Cabinet will step in after Gove and Hunt and/or/Javid resign.
OK. So May goes, and then what?
You tell me...
I'd like the ERG to tell us. It's them who are trying to get rid of her. So what's their plan if they succeed?
I thought the ERG wanted a No Deal Brexit?
So how are they going to get that one through the HoC?
By voting down the only deal on offer, and not reversing A50, we leave with No Deal by default.
I don't really think the 500+ MPs who see No Deal as a disaster for the country would allow that to happen. PM Raab would be voted down on every single proposal he'd put to the House.
The only way for parliament to prevent No Deal Brexit is to delay or reverse Brexit, once the deal has been rejected. As we've been told by Brussels today, this deal is the only deal on offer.
I look at the Tory and Labour front benches, at the ERG, at backbenchers who have achieved nothing in life popping up to talk utter shite and the only image that comes to mind is of ropes and lampposts.
They are an absolute shower, the lot of them
Welcome to my world. You may recall my "wobble" some months back when I realised this myself...
Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, has resigned 24 hours after the Brexit plan was revealed.
If he was being kept out the loop as Brexit secretary, he should have resigned on the basis he wasn't being allowed to do his job.
It cannot be the case that he didn't see the plan before it went to Cabinet. So how can he resign after Cabinet?
It makes no sense. Either he hated it before, in which case he shouldn't have even been in the Cabinet meeting. Or he changed his mind afterwards, in which case he's a dick.
The info in some of the press is that he got to see it just before cabinet, it was 500 pages. During cabinet stuff was revealed about what was in it that he had not had time to read and these meant resignation. Immediately after cabinet he saw the Chief Whip and told him he was resigning.
But if he wasn't seeing drafts - and there will have been many, many drafts of this - then he should have resigned before as he wasn't being allowed to do his job.
Maybe, but also this Cabinet meeting was so the PM could decide whether they supported the deal. All the info before was that it would be close. The finally tally seems to have been 12 -17. With Mundell and Gove supporting so could before the meeting have been calculated as 14 -15. Seems to me that if any Cabinet Minister was against before the meeting they had a duty to turn up and put their argument and aye or nay, not resign before hand.
Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, has resigned 24 hours after the Brexit plan was revealed.
If he was being kept out the loop as Brexit secretary, he should have resigned on the basis he wasn't being allowed to do his job.
It cannot be the case that he didn't see the plan before it went to Cabinet. So how can he resign after Cabinet?
It makes no sense. Either he hated it before, in which case he shouldn't have even been in the Cabinet meeting. Or he changed his mind afterwards, in which case he's a dick.
The info in some of the press is that he got to see it just before cabinet, it was 500 pages. During cabinet stuff was revealed about what was in it that he had not had time to read and these meant resignation. Immediately after cabinet he saw the Chief Whip and told him he was resigning.
But if he wasn't seeing drafts - and there will have been many, many drafts of this - then he should have resigned before as he wasn't being allowed to do his job.
Yes, there's something not quite plausible about this idea of the Brexit secretaries both not having any idea, and being blindsided on the day. Because if that is what happened he definitely should have said May must resign.
I think he's waiting to see which way the win is blowing - He'll go in the end.
Ultimately I don't think this will even go to 28 letters/VONC. I think the Cabinet will force her to resign in the end....
Hunt and Javid are key. If either of them resign she's done.
And yet...
7:25pm, and apparently still not 48 letters, never mind a head of steam for a full VoNC.
perhaps OGH's continual cry that the ERG are all piss and wind is looking correct tonight?
I don't understand what they expect to achieve. They don't like the deal, but there's no prospect of the EU reopening negotiations to give them a better deal. HoC is not going to allow anything remotely like no deal, so the only alternative is to have another referendum, which will most likely be the end of Brext altogether. They're just morons.
Listening to R4 earlier, there was a Sir Somebody on who said that a three-way referendum was a non-starter because the HoC would never agree to it. It would be too damaging and nobody wants No Deal.
The referendum would be binary - May's deal or Remain
One persons preference is not fact
It is however, very likely. The HoC agreeing to let "No Deal" on a 2nd referendum would be unbelievably stupid.
I look at the Tory and Labour front benches, at the ERG, at backbenchers who have achieved nothing in life popping up to talk utter shite and the only image that comes to mind is of ropes and lampposts... If in any future election a Tory canvasser comes to my house claiming that I must vote for them rather than Corbyn because of the chaos he will bring, they will live to regret it.......
So you won't follow through on the ropes and lampposts threat then?
Don't tempt me.....
Well, living in Cumberland I know you would find it difficult!
I think he's waiting to see which way the win is blowing - He'll go in the end.
Ultimately I don't think this will even go to 28 letters/VONC. I think the Cabinet will force her to resign in the end....
Hunt and Javid are key. If either of them resign she's done.
And yet...
7:25pm, and apparently still not 48 letters, never mind a head of steam for a full VoNC.
perhaps OGH's continual cry that the ERG are all piss and wind is looking correct tonight?
That's what I say. This won't get to VONC/28 letters. The Cabinet will step in after Gove and Hunt and/or/Javid resign.
OK. So May goes, and then what?
You tell me...
I'd like the ERG to tell us. It's them who are trying to get rid of her. So what's their plan if they succeed?
I thought the ERG wanted a No Deal Brexit?
So how are they going to get that one through the HoC?
By voting down the only deal on offer, and not reversing A50, we leave with No Deal by default.
I don't really think the 500+ MPs who see No Deal as a disaster for the country would allow that to happen.
That's what they claim to think, but if that were true they would not risk no deal so much at all, and they are. Their actions speak louder than words. I do think something would be organised to avoid no deal, but they are clearly prioritising other things - remain, a better deal, a GE - which increases the risk of no deal.
I think he's waiting to see which way the win is blowing - He'll go in the end.
Ultimately I don't think this will even go to 28 letters/VONC. I think the Cabinet will force her to resign in the end....
Hunt and Javid are key. If either of them resign she's done.
And yet...
7:25pm, and apparently still not 48 letters, never mind a head of steam for a full VoNC.
perhaps OGH's continual cry that the ERG are all piss and wind is looking correct tonight?
I don't understand what they expect to achieve. They don't like the deal, but there's no prospect of the EU reopening negotiations to give them a better deal. HoC is not going to allow anything remotely like no deal, so the only alternative is to have another referendum, which will most likely be the end of Brext altogether. They're just morons.
Listening to R4 earlier, there was a Sir Somebody on who said that a three-way referendum was a non-starter because the HoC would never agree to it. It would be too damaging and nobody wants No Deal.
The referendum would be binary - May's deal or Remain
One persons preference is not fact
It is however, very likely. The HoC agreeing to let "No Deal" on a 2nd referendum would be unbelievably stupid.
Surely you're not ruling it out just because of that?
Edit - I don't think the problem is if No Deal is on there, because I think this deal would win comfortably. The issue would be if Remain was on there and won - especially if the EU kicked up a sudden fuss.
Subtle shift in Corbyn's position spotted by the Gusardian:
"... If we cannot get a general election, in line with our conference policy, we will support all options remaining on the table, including campaigning for a public vote."
[Guardian comment] So, Corbyn is being explicit with members: He will back another referendum if he cannot force a general election.
Why not back one now? Labour are lying about the possibility of negotiating a customs union in which we would have a say over the EU's trade deals.
I think we should consider the possibility it's becuase he's a duplicitous, dishonest and shameless tosser who is actually trying to force no deal.
It might be that he's just grossly incompetent and very thick, but surely nobody could be this thick.
While I am not exactly Lenin's biggest fan, suggesting that the thought processes of one of the twentieth centuries most significant and influential intellectuals and politicians is in any way comparable to that of Corbyn is grotesque.
(And it wasn't Lenin that purged Mensheviks, it was Stalin.)
Lenin suppressed them, and Stalin purged the survivors.
Subtle shift in Corbyn's position spotted by the Gusardian:
"... If we cannot get a general election, in line with our conference policy, we will support all options remaining on the table, including campaigning for a public vote."
[Guardian comment] So, Corbyn is being explicit with members: He will back another referendum if he cannot force a general election.
Why not back one now? Labour are lying about the possibility of negotiating a customs union in which we would have a say over the EU's trade deals.
I think we should consider the possibility it's becuase he's a duplicitous, dishonest and shameless tosser who is actually trying to force no deal.
It might be that he's just grossly incompetent and very thick, but surely nobody could be this thick.
While I am not exactly Lenin's biggest fan, suggesting that the thought processes of one of the twentieth centuries most significant and influential intellectuals and politicians is in any way comparable to that of Corbyn is grotesque.
(And it wasn't Lenin that purged Mensheviks, it was Stalin.)
Lenin suppressed them, and Stalin purged the survivors.
Lenin suppressed them by making one of them Commissar for War?
We all know how good she is with the public. Has to be tried I suppose, although even people who have skimmed the deal will probably be mad or happy about half understood things, so the chances of her swaying anyone on the phone who islikely to not even have skimmed it are low.
Caller: This deal is not a true Brexit! May: It is, because Caller: No it isn't!
I think he's waiting to see which way the win is blowing - He'll go in the end.
Ultimately I don't think this will even go to 28 letters/VONC. I think the Cabinet will force her to resign in the end....
Hunt and Javid are key. If either of them resign she's done.
And yet...
7:25pm, and apparently still not 48 letters, never mind a head of steam for a full VoNC.
perhaps OGH's continual cry that the ERG are all piss and wind is looking correct tonight?
That's what I say. This won't get to VONC/28 letters. The Cabinet will step in after Gove and Hunt and/or/Javid resign.
OK. So May goes, and then what?
You tell me...
I'd like the ERG to tell us. It's them who are trying to get rid of her. So what's their plan if they succeed?
I thought the ERG wanted a No Deal Brexit?
So how are they going to get that one through the HoC?
By voting down the only deal on offer, and not reversing A50, we leave with No Deal by default.
I don't really think the 500+ MPs who see No Deal as a disaster for the country would allow that to happen.
That's what they claim to think, but if that were true they would not risk no deal so much at all, and they are. Their actions speak louder than words. I do think something would be organised to avoid no deal, but they are clearly prioritising other things - remain, a better deal, a GE - which increases the risk of no deal.
The point is that the change from PM BINO May to PM No Deal Raab would change the dynamic completely - and not just in the HoC, but in the country too.
Subtle shift in Corbyn's position spotted by the Gusardian:
"... If we cannot get a general election, in line with our conference policy, we will support all options remaining on the table, including campaigning for a public vote."
[Guardian comment] So, Corbyn is being explicit with members: He will back another referendum if he cannot force a general election.
So Jezza won't be rebelling against the agreed Labour position after all. McDonnell and Starmer have made him see the light.
That should frighten the ERGers but of course they probably won't notice until it is too late. If there is a second Referendum we will stay in the EU the £ will soar and I will be well pleased.
I am reminded of Maggie. She did a public "consultation" and got verbally handbagged by an angry woman. It got replayed for years.
She also lost the confidence of her party and then held a Presser to say she would go on and on (echoes of today's 5pm Presser). She was gone shortly after.
I think I am having Deja Vu. The Iron Lady and Tin-eared Tessie.... what a pair!
I look at the Tory and Labour front benches, at the ERG, at backbenchers who have achieved nothing in life popping up to talk utter shite and the only image that comes to mind is of ropes and lampposts... If in any future election a Tory canvasser comes to my house claiming that I must vote for them rather than Corbyn because of the chaos he will bring, they will live to regret it.......
So you won't follow through on the ropes and lampposts threat then?
Don't tempt me.....
Well, living in Cumberland I know you would find it difficult!
Long sandy beaches, easy to dig.....
I was thinking more of the lack of lamp posts!
Lamp posts? Where they're going who needs lamp posts? (flicks sunglasses down over eyes)
I think he's waiting to see which way the win is blowing - He'll go in the end.
Ultimately I don't think this will even go to 28 letters/VONC. I think the Cabinet will force her to resign in the end....
Hunt and Javid are key. If either of them resign she's done.
And yet...
7:25pm, and apparently still not 48 letters, never mind a head of steam for a full VoNC.
perhaps OGH's continual cry that the ERG are all piss and wind is looking correct tonight?
That's what I say. This won't get to VONC/28 letters. The Cabinet will step in after Gove and Hunt and/or/Javid resign.
OK. So May goes, and then what?
You tell me...
I'd like the ERG to tell us. It's them who are trying to get rid of her. So what's their plan if they succeed?
I thought the ERG wanted a No Deal Brexit?
So how are they going to get that one through the HoC?
By voting down the only deal on offer, and not reversing A50, we leave with No Deal by default.
I don't really think the 500+ MPs who see No Deal as a disaster for the country would allow that to happen.
That's what they claim to think, but if that were true they would not risk no deal so much at all, and they are. Their actions speak louder than words. I do think something would be organised to avoid no deal, but they are clearly prioritising other things - remain, a better deal, a GE - which increases the risk of no deal.
The point is that the change from PM BINO May to PM No Deal Raab would change the dynamic completely - and not just in the HoC, but in the country too.
I think he's waiting to see which way the win is blowing - He'll go in the end.
Ultimately I don't think this will even go to 28 letters/VONC. I think the Cabinet will force her to resign in the end....
Hunt and Javid are key. If either of them resign she's done.
And yet...
7:25pm, and apparently still not 48 letters, never mind a head of steam for a full VoNC.
perhaps OGH's continual cry that the ERG are all piss and wind is looking correct tonight?
That's what I say. This won't get to VONC/28 letters. The Cabinet will step in after Gove and Hunt and/or/Javid resign.
OK. So May goes, and then what?
You tell me...
I'd like the ERG to tell us. It's them who are trying to get rid of her. So what's their plan if they succeed?
I thought the ERG wanted a No Deal Brexit?
So how are they going to get that one through the HoC?
By voting down the only deal on offer, and not reversing A50, we leave with No Deal by default.
I don't really think the 500+ MPs who see No Deal as a disaster for the country would allow that to happen.
That's what they claim to think, but if that were true they would not risk no deal so much at all, and they are. Their actions speak louder than words. I do think something would be organised to avoid no deal, but they are clearly prioritising other things - remain, a better deal, a GE - which increases the risk of no deal.
The point is that the change from PM BINO May to PM No Deal Raab would change the dynamic completely - and not just in the HoC, but in the country too.
Subtle shift in Corbyn's position spotted by the Gusardian:
"... If we cannot get a general election, in line with our conference policy, we will support all options remaining on the table, including campaigning for a public vote."
[Guardian comment] So, Corbyn is being explicit with members: He will back another referendum if he cannot force a general election.
Why not back one now? Labour are lying about the possibility of negotiating a customs union in which we would have a say over the EU's trade deals.
I think we should consider the possibility it's becuase he's a duplicitous, dishonest and shameless tosser who is actually trying to force no deal.
It might be that he's just grossly incompetent and very thick, but surely nobody could be this thick.
While I am not exactly Lenin's biggest fan, suggesting that the thought processes of one of the twentieth centuries most significant and influential intellectuals and politicians is in any way comparable to that of Corbyn is grotesque.
(And it wasn't Lenin that purged Mensheviks, it was Stalin.)
Lenin suppressed them, and Stalin purged the survivors.
Lenin suppressed them by making one of them Commissar for War?
Trotsky? I don't think he was ever a Menshevik, and he joined the Bolsheviks just before the the October Revolution. The Mensheviks were never part of Sovnarkom (the Left SRs were for a little while until Kaplan attempted to assassinate Lenin). The Mensheviks were suppressed after the Kronstadt Uprising in 1921.
BREAKING- Transport Secretary Chris Grayling's resignation unexpectedly delayed and expected to arrive several hours late by replacement bus service. #BrexitChaos #FailingGrayling
BREAKING- Transport Secretary Chris Grayling's resignation unexpectedly delayed and expected to arrive several hours late by replacement bus service. #BrexitChaos #FailingGrayling
I think he's waiting to see which way the win is blowing - He'll go in the end.
Ultimately I don't think this will even go to 28 letters/VONC. I think the Cabinet will force her to resign in the end....
Hunt and Javid are key. If either of them resign she's done.
And yet...
7:25pm, and apparently still not 48 letters, never mind a head of steam for a full VoNC.
perhaps OGH's continual cry that the ERG are all piss and wind is looking correct tonight?
That's what I say. This won't get to VONC/28 letters. The Cabinet will step in after Gove and Hunt and/or/Javid resign.
OK. So May goes, and then what?
You tell me...
I'd like the ERG to tell us. It's them who are trying to get rid of her. So what's their plan if they succeed?
I thought the ERG wanted a No Deal Brexit?
So how are they going to get that one through the HoC?
By voting down the only deal on offer, and not reversing A50, we leave with No Deal by default.
I don't really think the 500+ MPs who see No Deal as a disaster for the country would allow that to happen.
That's what they claim to think, but if that were true they would not risk no deal so much at all, and they are. Their actions speak louder than words. I do think something would be organised to avoid no deal, but they are clearly prioritising other things - remain, a better deal, a GE - which increases the risk of no deal.
The point is that the change from PM BINO May to PM No Deal Raab would change the dynamic completely - and not just in the HoC, but in the country too.
In what way?
In general, the majority of MPs and majority of voters will grumble a bit, but ultimately put up with May and her deal. The ERG taking over the Government, not so much ...
LibDem MP for Eastbourne Stephen Lloyd has said he will back Theresa May’s abysmal Brexit ‘deal‘, which will remove the UK from the EU with none of the advantages of leaving while retaining almost all of the obligations of membership.
Another febrile day and an extraordinary single-minded campaign by the Prime Minister to "sell" her own Deal. Yet we saw this with Cameron who tried to go straight to the people and look where that ended up.
Those who seem to support the Deal do so primarily for fear of the alternatives. There seems very little positive about what is being proposed.
Today has convinced me IF the Deal falls in the Commons May will go - she has invested as much political capital in that as Cameron did on the REMAIN vote in 2016. A vote against the Deal can only be seen as a vote against her personally.
I voted LEAVE two and a half years ago because I came to believe there were only two coherent positions possible - all in or all out. All In, including the Euro and Schengen and taking an active and positive leadership role in the development of the EU is credible but it meant and would mean making some huge changes and some would say sacrifices which the British people were unable and unwilling to make.
I find it curious that on either side of the EU you will have two states outside the Union, the UK and Russia, with Imperial pasts and perspectives and yet having to come to terms with the new entity that has developed in their midst. Both, I suspect, preferred a Europe disunited and divided.
Those who seem to support the Deal do so primarily for fear of the alternatives. There seems very little positive about what is being proposed.
Rubbish. It controls immigration, returns control to British courts, maintains economic access, regains our control over services, and allows us to sign trade deals.
Is it only a week since Dominic Raab revealed that he had discovered that Britain was an island and a functioning Dover was reasonably important for the country’s food supplies?
Another febrile day and an extraordinary single-minded campaign by the Prime Minister to "sell" her own Deal. Yet we saw this with Cameron who tried to go straight to the people and look where that ended up.
Those who seem to support the Deal do so primarily for fear of the alternatives. There seems very little positive about what is being proposed.
Today has convinced me IF the Deal falls in the Commons May will go - she has invested as much political capital in that as Cameron did on the REMAIN vote in 2016. A vote against the Deal can only be seen as a vote against her personally.
I voted LEAVE two and a half years ago because I came to believe there were only two coherent positions possible - all in or all out. All In, including the Euro and Schengen and taking an active and positive leadership role in the development of the EU is credible but it meant and would mean making some huge changes and some would say sacrifices which the British people were unable and unwilling to make.
I find it curious that on either side of the EU you will have two states outside the Union, the UK and Russia, with Imperial pasts and perspectives and yet having to come to terms with the new entity that has developed in their midst. Both, I suspect, preferred a Europe disunited and divided.
Historically, that was of course always the objective of our foreign policy.
BREAKING- Transport Secretary Chris Grayling's resignation unexpectedly delayed and expected to arrive several hours late by replacement bus service. #BrexitChaos #FailingGrayling
LibDem MP for Eastbourne Stephen Lloyd has said he will back Theresa May’s abysmal Brexit ‘deal‘, which will remove the UK from the EU with none of the advantages of leaving while retaining almost all of the obligations of membership.
Stephen, like so many others it seems, has been taken in by the apocalyptic warnings of Carney and others but ultimately it's the Prime Minister's last card. She, who got to the top job because of the failure of one Project Fear, may yet survive because of the success of another.
Is it only a week since Dominic Raab revealed that he had discovered that Britain was an island and a functioning Dover was reasonably important for the country’s food supplies?
Some on here today were rating his chances in a leadership election...!
Subtle shift in Corbyn's position spotted by the Gusardian:
"... If we cannot get a general election, in line with our conference policy, we will support all options remaining on the table, including campaigning for a public vote."
[Guardian comment] So, Corbyn is being explicit with members: He will back another referendum if he cannot force a general election.
Why not back one now? Labour are lying about the possibility of negotiating a customs union in which we would have a say over the EU's trade deals.
I think we should consider the possibility it's becuase he's a duplicitous, dishonest and shameless tosser who is actually trying to force no deal.
It might be that he's just grossly incompetent and very thick, but surely nobody could be this thick.
While I am not exactly Lenin's biggest fan, suggesting that the thought processes of one of the twentieth centuries most significant and influential intellectuals and politicians is in any way comparable to that of Corbyn is grotesque.
(And it wasn't Lenin that purged Mensheviks, it was Stalin.)
Lenin suppressed them, and Stalin purged the survivors.
Lenin suppressed them by making one of them Commissar for War?
Trotsky? I don't think he was ever a Menshevik, and he joined the Bolsheviks just before the the October Revolution. The Mensheviks were never part of Sovnarkom (the Left SRs were for a little while until Kaplan attempted to assassinate Lenin). The Mensheviks were suppressed after the Kronstadt Uprising in 1921.
Right:
Strictly speaking, Trotsky was leader of his own faction within he RSDLP. However, he was generally closer to and more sympathetic with the Mensheviks than the Bolsheviks. Stalin's attacks on him made repeated reference to Menshevism (which is ironic given arguably by that stage Trotsky was more Bolshevik in outlook than Stalin himself). The Mensheviks were allowed a degree of latitude in organisation until 1921 when their organisation was suppressed by the Cheka and their most prominent figures still remaining in Russia, notably Fedor Dan, were exiled. But Trotsky and Adolf Joffe were still active until the late 1920s.
I find it curious that on either side of the EU you will have two states outside the Union, the UK and Russia, with Imperial pasts and perspectives and yet having to come to terms with the new entity that has developed in their midst. Both, I suspect, preferred a Europe disunited and divided.
That was always British policy. "And current policy. We had to break the whole thing up, so we had to get inside. We tried to break it up from the outside, but that wouldn't work. Now that we're inside we can make a complete pig's breakfast of the whole thing — set the Germans against the French, the French against the Italians, the Italians against the Dutch... The Foreign Office is terribly pleased; it's just like old times."
I think he's waiting to see which way the win is blowing - He'll go in the end.
Ultimately I don't think this will even go to 28 letters/VONC. I think the Cabinet will force her to resign in the end....
Hunt and Javid are key. If either of them resign she's done.
And yet...
7:25pm, and apparently still not 48 letters, never mind a head of steam for a full VoNC.
perhaps OGH's continual cry that the ERG are all piss and wind is looking correct tonight?
That's what I say. This won't get to VONC/28 letters. The Cabinet will step in after Gove and Hunt and/or/Javid resign.
OK. So May goes, and then what?
You tell me...
I'd like the ERG to tell us. It's them who are trying to get rid of her. So what's their plan if they succeed?
I thought the ERG wanted a No Deal Brexit?
So how are they going to get that one through the HoC?
By voting down the only deal on offer, and not reversing A50, we leave with No Deal by default.
I don't really think the 500+ MPs who see No Deal as a disaster for the country would allow that to happen.
That's what they claim to think, but if that were true they would not risk no deal so much at all, and they are. Their actions speak louder than words. I do think something would be organised to avoid no deal, but they are clearly prioritising other things - remain, a better deal, a GE - which increases the risk of no deal.
The point is that the change from PM BINO May to PM No Deal Raab would change the dynamic completely - and not just in the HoC, but in the country too.
The difference between the view from the clifftop and the rush of air as we fall?
BREAKING- Transport Secretary Chris Grayling's resignation unexpectedly delayed and expected to arrive several hours late by replacement bus service. #BrexitChaos #FailingGrayling
More like several years. (It is quite funny though.)
IIRC he objected to words to the effect of 'Customs union will be the basis of the future agreement'
A bit rich given that he was elected on a manifesto that called for “comprehensive free trade and customs agreement”. How was a comprehensive customs agreement going to be created that wasn't based on the EU's existing customs rules?
I don't buy it. He waited until he saw the way the wind was blowing and jumped, leaving Sir Humphrey to take the blame.
All these leavers wandering around pushing “the deal is worse than remaining, deal=remain with no influence”. Could have sworn that there were a couple of fundamental arguments which contradict that pushed by them during the referendum:
1)we have zero influence in the EU, we always get outvoted 2)remain is not the status quo, it will tie us inexorably into future integration blah blah
+ no control over immigration, CAP, CFP etc etc...
BREAKING- Transport Secretary Chris Grayling's resignation unexpectedly delayed and expected to arrive several hours late by replacement bus service. #BrexitChaos #FailingGrayling
Bjo, I think you are on a 2 hour plus delay in your posts yourself today. Wrong sort of leavers on the line?
The letters thing is amazing, despite apparently being in the 40's weeks ago and everyone and their dog tweeting their letter today apparently we still don't have 48? Are they being mysteriously "misplaced" after submission?
The letters thing is amazing, despite apparently being in the 40's weeks ago and everyone and their dog tweeting their letter today apparently we still don't have 48? Are they being mysteriously "misplaced" after submission?
The Tories should never have privatized the Royal Mail...
Rubbish. It controls immigration, returns control to British courts, maintains economic access, regains our control over services, and allows us to sign trade deals.
That's the best of Leave and best of Remain.
You seem to be one of the few (apart from the Prime Minister) with anything positive to say about the Deal. To be fair, these things would have been the bare minimum for any Deal and had they not been included, it wouldn't have got past Cabinet.
I presume you've read the Deal in its entirety - I confess I haven't.
Rubbish. It controls immigration, returns control to British courts, maintains economic access, regains our control over services, and allows us to sign trade deals.
It doesn't do any of those things. What it does is put us into a further so-called "transition" period in which none of that will happen, with every prospect that those arrangements will become permanent since the UK will have lost control over the ability to end that transition.
LibDem MP for Eastbourne Stephen Lloyd has said he will back Theresa May’s abysmal Brexit ‘deal‘, which will remove the UK from the EU with none of the advantages of leaving while retaining almost all of the obligations of membership.
Stephen, like so many others it seems, has been taken in by the apocalyptic warnings of Carney and others but ultimately it's the Prime Minister's last card. She, who got to the top job because of the failure of one Project Fear, may yet survive because of the success of another.
Not a good look for Vince he only has 11 MPs to keep on track
So I have been doing more productive things in the last 2.5 hours, principally enjoying the pub. What have I missed?
Gove doesn't seem to have resigned yet, nor does Mordaunt. Has anyone else gone since the press conference?
I presume we haven't quite got to 48 letters yet, remarkably enough.
Has anyone worked out what May thought she was doing at the press conference?
Mordaunt arrived home in her own car, and couldn't answer a question about whether she'd resigned, or not. I believe JRM earlier suggested she would be a good PM ...
I presume we haven't quite got to 48 letters yet, remarkably enough.
We seem to have gone backwards, apparently the current estimate is the number of letters is "in the 30s".
They are pissing about, relying on the fact that once they finally do go in most people will forget that they were just a few letters away for 6 months.
All these leavers wandering around pushing “the deal is worse than remaining, deal=remain with no influence”. Could have sworn that there were a couple of fundamental arguments which contradict that pushed by them during the referendum:
1)we have zero influence in the EU, we always get outvoted
So I have been doing more productive things in the last 2.5 hours, principally enjoying the pub. What have I missed?
Gove doesn't seem to have resigned yet, nor does Mordaunt. Has anyone else gone since the press conference?
I presume we haven't quite got to 48 letters yet, remarkably enough.
Has anyone worked out what May thought she was doing at the press conference?
Seems pretty straightforward to me. It had been a chaotic day with plenty of resignations, even speculation that she would resign then and there or call for a GE. She held it to publicly reiterate that she is sticking to her position, in effect telling her opponents they have to actually take her down, not threaten to do it and expect her to fold.
Although no deal is the default, government would have to survive the vote that follows a failure to deliver a Withdrawal Agreement by 21 January. In practice that would be close to a confidence vote.
The IfG has the detail on this kind of stuff : www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/parliament-meaningful-vote-brexit
Rubbish. It controls immigration, returns control to British courts, maintains economic access, regains our control over services, and allows us to sign trade deals.
It doesn't do any of those things. What it does is put us into a further so-called "transition" period in which none of that will happen, with every prospect that those arrangements will become permanent since the UK will have lost control over the ability to end that transition.
The deal is quite clear that the transition period will last to 31st December 2020 and can be extended (no later than 30th July 2020) until 31st December 2021. (Yes, yes, I know the draft had the date mangled but everyone knows that was what it was supposed to be.)
Rubbish. It controls immigration, returns control to British courts, maintains economic access, regains our control over services, and allows us to sign trade deals.
That's the best of Leave and best of Remain.
You seem to be one of the few (apart from the Prime Minister) with anything positive to say about the Deal. To be fair, these things would have been the bare minimum for any Deal and had they not been included, it wouldn't have got past Cabinet.
I presume you've read the Deal in its entirety - I confess I haven't.
Quite honestly unless someone is a trained lawyer and very familiar with the body of EU legislation which is referenced in it, I wouldn't recommend it. I got about 400-450 pages in (just after the NI protocol) and it is mostly confusing legalese.
Rubbish. It controls immigration, returns control to British courts, maintains economic access, regains our control over services, and allows us to sign trade deals.
It doesn't do any of those things. What it does is put us into a further so-called "transition" period in which none of that will happen, with every prospect that those arrangements will become permanent since the UK will have lost control over the ability to end that transition.
The deal is quite clear that the transition period will last to 31st December 2020 and can be extended (no later than 30th July 2020) until 31st December 2021. (Yes, yes, I know the draft had the date mangled but everyone knows that was what it was supposed to be.)
I'm not convinced the only extension is once or for one year. Barnier seemed to imply it but there are no words to that effect.
Rubbish. It controls immigration, returns control to British courts, maintains economic access, regains our control over services, and allows us to sign trade deals.
It doesn't do any of those things. What it does is put us into a further so-called "transition" period in which none of that will happen, with every prospect that those arrangements will become permanent since the UK will have lost control over the ability to end that transition.
The deal is quite clear that the transition period will last to 31st December 2020 and can be extended (no later than 30th July 2020) until 31st December 2021. (Yes, yes, I know the draft had the date mangled but everyone knows that was what it was supposed to be.)
I'm not convinced the only extension is once or for one year. Barnier seemed to imply it but there are no words to that effect.
I'm pretty sure the EU said some months back that the transition period can't go past the end of 2021.
LibDem MP for Eastbourne Stephen Lloyd has said he will back Theresa May’s abysmal Brexit ‘deal‘, which will remove the UK from the EU with none of the advantages of leaving while retaining almost all of the obligations of membership.
Stephen, like so many others it seems, has been taken in by the apocalyptic warnings of Carney and others but ultimately it's the Prime Minister's last card. She, who got to the top job because of the failure of one Project Fear, may yet survive because of the success of another.
I believe he is simply fulfilling a pledge he made to his constituents at the GE. I admire him for it.
LibDem MP for Eastbourne Stephen Lloyd has said he will back Theresa May’s abysmal Brexit ‘deal‘, which will remove the UK from the EU with none of the advantages of leaving while retaining almost all of the obligations of membership.
Stephen, like so many others it seems, has been taken in by the apocalyptic warnings of Carney and others but ultimately it's the Prime Minister's last card. She, who got to the top job because of the failure of one Project Fear, may yet survive because of the success of another.
Getting a deal through would, I am sure, be the last substantive thing she manages, she would not survive for long.
Comments
I represent my constituents.
You stand up for your deeply-held principles despite the difficulties.
He is a two-faced disloyal shit.
It worked once, for Harold Wilson and Tony Benn and Peter Shore...
Edit to add: I think your first point is right. He thought "well, it isn't perfect, but as everyone else is going along with it..." And then when people started to object, he suddenly got the courage of his convictions.
If he had resigned two weeks ago on the basis that he wasn't happy with the drafts that were being circulated, and he didn't think he'd be able to back the final deal, then that would be a principled resignation.
This? This looks like he's a complete dick.
Or, of course, quite possibly a no-deal Brexit might cause modest disruption, some economic distress at the time but overall something weatherable that, may not end up having a huge impact over the medium to long term (which JRM has defined as fifty years though!)
The scary thing is that so many seem to so blasé about embarking on the experiment! It's like the operators of Chernobyl experimenting with a working reactor's safety systems. They never expected it to lead to a meltdown, but it did.
Even in economies and societies far less developed than ours today, things can spiral out of control. No-one, not even those desired it and planned for it, expected the First World War become the bloodbath of millions and created communism as a viable political system, but it did.
So yes, ropes and lampposts is almost certainly hyperbole, but a no-deal Brexit would undeniably be a revolution. None of those who died under Robespierre's guillotines had the slightest inkling this would be their fate when they celebrated the tennis court oath. I hope none of the Brexiteers ever end up in a similar situation, but it could happen.
And a no deal Brexit is *still* the only possible outcome if nothing is done to prevent it between now and 30 March 2019.
[1] If you read up on the Carrington Event of 1859 and don't break out in a cold sweat at the prospect of it happening again in your lifetime, you're a braver man or woman than I.
https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1063162182416977921
Interesting...
Oh.
Honestly, any Remainer who votes this down and then bleats about the resulting chaos is like a stupid version of Mogg.
Edit - I don't think the problem is if No Deal is on there, because I think this deal would win comfortably. The issue would be if Remain was on there and won - especially if the EU kicked up a sudden fuss.
Caller: This deal is not a true Brexit!
May: It is, because
Caller: No it isn't!
She also lost the confidence of her party and then held a Presser to say she would go on and on (echoes of today's 5pm Presser). She was gone shortly after.
I think I am having Deja Vu. The Iron Lady and Tin-eared Tessie.... what a pair!
Mind you one of the blubbing Leave voters who can't sleep with shame and worry might beat her to first call.
Another febrile day and an extraordinary single-minded campaign by the Prime Minister to "sell" her own Deal. Yet we saw this with Cameron who tried to go straight to the people and look where that ended up.
Those who seem to support the Deal do so primarily for fear of the alternatives. There seems very little positive about what is being proposed.
Today has convinced me IF the Deal falls in the Commons May will go - she has invested as much political capital in that as Cameron did on the REMAIN vote in 2016. A vote against the Deal can only be seen as a vote against her personally.
I voted LEAVE two and a half years ago because I came to believe there were only two coherent positions possible - all in or all out. All In, including the Euro and Schengen and taking an active and positive leadership role in the development of the EU is credible but it meant and would mean making some huge changes and some would say sacrifices which the British people were unable and unwilling to make.
I find it curious that on either side of the EU you will have two states outside the Union, the UK and Russia, with Imperial pasts and perspectives and yet having to come to terms with the new entity that has developed in their midst. Both, I suspect, preferred a Europe disunited and divided.
https://twitter.com/AlistairBurtUK/status/1063166770327023616
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3F_ly9xSqQ
That's the best of Leave and best of Remain.
Strictly speaking, Trotsky was leader of his own faction within he RSDLP. However, he was generally closer to and more sympathetic with the Mensheviks than the Bolsheviks. Stalin's attacks on him made repeated reference to Menshevism (which is ironic given arguably by that stage Trotsky was more Bolshevik in outlook than Stalin himself). The Mensheviks were allowed a degree of latitude in organisation until 1921 when their organisation was suppressed by the Cheka and their most prominent figures still remaining in Russia, notably Fedor Dan, were exiled. But Trotsky and Adolf Joffe were still active until the late 1920s.
Was reading PB ob train - get off, into office and bump into one of the senior "Brexit" people.
We talk about how things are shaping up for us and our industry and ....
God knows how it happened, I referred to Brexshit
He said looking at the news it was hard to argue with that :-)
I don't buy it. He waited until he saw the way the wind was blowing and jumped, leaving Sir Humphrey to take the blame.
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1063163059127152644
1)we have zero influence in the EU, we always get outvoted
2)remain is not the status quo, it will tie us inexorably into future integration blah blah
+ no control over immigration, CAP, CFP etc etc...
Gove doesn't seem to have resigned yet, nor does Mordaunt. Has anyone else gone since the press conference?
I presume we haven't quite got to 48 letters yet, remarkably enough.
Has anyone worked out what May thought she was doing at the press conference?
I presume you've read the Deal in its entirety - I confess I haven't.
Peoples vote is LD policy isn't it??
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6392515/Furious-Tory-MPs-vow-call-no-confidence-vote-Brexit-plan.html
What's wrong with these people???
The IfG has the detail on this kind of stuff : www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/parliament-meaningful-vote-brexit
What shall I spend the pound on?
meleagrine = turkey-like