I think there are about 40MPs who won't vote for, 10 will be persuaded to abstain which means we need 30 Labour rebels to get it through. I think it's possible
Only if they believe their CLP's won't automatically deselect them, then your argument might stand, but they will never be reelected to the best club in London again.
For those representing Remainery seats in London, Manchester and Birmingham I suspect the gamble seems less.
If Gove resigns, can I finally compare him to Mark Reckless?
For his betrayal of David Cameron I compared to Gove to Mark Reckless.
So I can say 'traitorous pig dog?'
If you've seen Bohemian Rhapsody, my current favourite insult is 'treacherous pissflap'.
We will rock you was released in 1980, of course Freddie was diagnosed with HIV before Live Aid, of course Queen hadn't recorded together for YEARS before Live Aid, of course
And your point is?
Bohemian Rhapsody is full of historic anachronisms?
Who gives a shit - it's entertainment not history.
The film is a work of genius.
The critics don’t like it because the plebs do.
The exact opposite of The Last Jedi!
I still wonder what Disney were pumping brought the air vents at preview screenings.
Edit - speaking of which, is Fantastic Beasts released early in the US or is RCS a master of the dark arts?
I'm seeing it in less than 5 hours.
How? Midnight screening?
I suppose unemployment has its perks...
Pah, I go to a lot of midnight screenings even when I have work the next morning.
Plus I'm not a doley, I'm getting paid.
Wish I bloody could.
Mind you, one more unnecessary row about something ridiculously unimportant and I may well be unemployed as well due to my having stormed out of the gate.
Judging by the absolute state of the pricks, jokers, liars, dullards and clowns who have resigned or sent in bloody letters in the last 24 hours, this is a decent deal. A twat who doesn’t know where France is, a congenital scouse liar, a sinister Etonian who looks like a striped pencil, and a bunch of utter nobodies. Gove would complete the set - presumably he is waiting for his wife to give the green light. Here’s hoping.
Wouldn't have said Corbyn was a Scouse. Market Drayton is quite a way from Liverpool.
Is he making some push for the leadership in a plan with the Mogg ?
Or is he a complete fecking moron ?
It’s hard to say but I’d go with psychopath.
Someone who hears one of his cabinet colleagues say, “I cannot guarantee essential medicine availability” and thinks, “the anvil of my Europhobia is more important” is someone I wouldn’t want to rely on.
Without going overboard, are there any pharmacists on PB? I think we get shortages of medicines now where some suppliers stock out for days of a particular drug / dosage and alternatives have to be given. How resilient is the currents supply system in the event of delays of a few weeks caused by storms in the Channel / North Sea? What should we do to address that?
The vote for the deal in the Commons will not be for another month. That's an awful long time in politics. There will be a lot of polling between now and then - and a lot of No Deal information leaking out. I would not be surprised if we see a fair few MPs on both sides of the house change their minds on this.
Is he making some push for the leadership in a plan with the Mogg ?
Or is he a complete fecking moron ?
It’s hard to say but I’d go with psychopath.
Someone who hears one of his cabinet colleagues say, “I cannot guarantee essential medicine availability” and thinks, “the anvil of my Europhobia is more important” is someone I wouldn’t want to rely on.
Without going overboard, are there any pharmacists on PB? I think we get shortages of medicines now where some suppliers stock out for days of a particular drug / dosage and alternatives have to be given. How resilient is the currents supply system in the event of delays of a few weeks caused by storms in the Channel / North Sea? What should we do to address that?
If you think the rebels are all mouth no trousers, or even if you think they’re not but May can still find 159+ MPs to vote for her in a confidence vote, then laying her to go before 31st Dec at near enough evens looks like value on Betfair.
PP just power boosted that to 7/5 for me but only in £33
I think there are about 40MPs who won't vote for, 10 will be persuaded to abstain which means we need 30 Labour rebels to get it through. I think it's possible
Only if they believe their CLP's won't automatically deselect them, then your argument might stand, but they will never be reelected to the best club in London again.
For those representing Remainery seats in London, Manchester and Birmingham I suspect the gamble seems less.
Hoey is a dead woman walking on that basis.
That was said for the last election...Look at her majority
The vote for the deal in the Commons will not be for another month. That's an awful long time in politics. There will be a lot of polling between now and then - and a lot of No Deal information leaking out. I would not be surprised if we see a fair few MPs on both sides of the house change their minds on this.
The question is whether that drives support for the deal, or whether it drives support for no Brexit at all.
But does Matt have any advice on being able to find humour in the news? "I can't remember who it was that said that nothing matters very much and hardly anything matters at all," he said. "But if I say that to myself five times a day, then you do think, 'let's calm down, there must be a funny side to this'."
Is he making some push for the leadership in a plan with the Mogg ?
Or is he a complete fecking moron ?
Well allegedly he was cut out of arranging the details, in which case why did he not notice this I wonder, and despite quitting didn't call for May to go.
So he's a moron. And may be making a leadership push.
If you can fail to notice that Britain is an island near France, you can certainly fail to notice when you are not being included in negotiations. Whether Raab's inability to process information makes him qualified for any elected office, let alone the highest in the land, is a moot point, though.
I think there are about 40MPs who won't vote for, 10 will be persuaded to abstain which means we need 30 Labour rebels to get it through. I think it's possible
Only if they believe their CLP's won't automatically deselect them, then your argument might stand, but they will never be reelected to the best club in London again.
For those representing Remainery seats in London, Manchester and Birmingham I suspect the gamble seems less.
Hoey is a dead woman walking on that basis.
That was said for the last election...Look at her majority
It's not her voters I was thinking of, it's her CLP.
Judging by the absolute state of the pricks, jokers, liars, dullards and clowns who have resigned or sent in bloody letters in the last 24 hours, this is a decent deal. A twat who doesn’t know where France is, a congenital scouse liar, a sinister Etonian who looks like a striped pencil, and a bunch of utter nobodies. Gove would complete the set - presumably he is waiting for his wife to give the green light. Here’s hoping.
Maybe you should tone down your language a little bit.
I think he's waiting to see which way the win is blowing - He'll go in the end.
Ultimately I don't think this will even go to 28 letters/VONC. I think the Cabinet will force her to resign in the end....
Hunt and Javid are key. If either of them resign she's done.
And yet...
7:25pm, and apparently still not 48 letters, never mind a head of steam for a full VoNC.
perhaps OGH's continual cry that the ERG are all piss and wind is looking correct tonight?
The ERG are piss and wind, the trouble is she doesn't even have the support of the people she supposedly chose, i.e. the cabinet. Nor does she look able to fill the Brexit secretary role, the optics of which are absolutely abominable. Nobody will touch it. What does that say?
I think he's waiting to see which way the win is blowing - He'll go in the end.
Ultimately I don't think this will even go to 28 letters/VONC. I think the Cabinet will force her to resign in the end....
Hunt and Javid are key. If either of them resign she's done.
And yet...
7:25pm, and apparently still not 48 letters, never mind a head of steam for a full VoNC.
perhaps OGH's continual cry that the ERG are all piss and wind is looking correct tonight?
I don't understand what they expect to achieve. They don't like the deal, but there's no prospect of the EU reopening negotiations to give them a better deal. HoC is not going to allow anything remotely like no deal, so the only alternative is to have another referendum, which will most likely be the end of Brext altogether. They're just morons.
I think he's waiting to see which way the win is blowing - He'll go in the end.
Ultimately I don't think this will even go to 28 letters/VONC. I think the Cabinet will force her to resign in the end....
Hunt and Javid are key. If either of them resign she's done.
And yet...
7:25pm, and apparently still not 48 letters, never mind a head of steam for a full VoNC.
perhaps OGH's continual cry that the ERG are all piss and wind is looking correct tonight?
The ERG are piss and wind, the trouble is she doesn't even have the support of the people she supposedly chose, i.e. the cabinet. Nor does she look able to fill the Brexit secretary role, the optics of which are absolutely abominable. Nobody will touch it. What does that say?
That it was a less than brilliant idea to create it.
Is he making some push for the leadership in a plan with the Mogg ?
Or is he a complete fecking moron ?
Well allegedly he was cut out of arranging the details, in which case why did he not notice this I wonder, and despite quitting didn't call for May to go.
So he's a moron. And may be making a leadership push.
If you can fail to notice that Britain is an island near France, you can certainly fail to notice when you are not being included in negotiations. Whether Raab's inability to process information makes him qualified for any elected office, let alone the highest in the land, is a moot point, though.
After Hesaltine's failure to convert, no one wants to be the assassin.
they haven't got 48 because they all pretty much think they will lose
If they fail in the next few days after JRM full on challenge it will be a complete humilation for them
That would be nice and very necessary. The longer there is no challenge, the harder it will be to mount one. The ERG is going to find that it has spectacularly misjudged the mood of the country. When you spend a lot of time talking only to people who agree with you what happens is you lose sight of the real world. It's great fun sitting in panelled rooms talking with you mates about tyranny, vassalage, liberty and all the rest of it, then having a glass or two and getting all Cod Churchillian, but it does rather remove you from everyday life.
I think he's waiting to see which way the win is blowing - He'll go in the end.
Ultimately I don't think this will even go to 28 letters/VONC. I think the Cabinet will force her to resign in the end....
Hunt and Javid are key. If either of them resign she's done.
And yet...
7:25pm, and apparently still not 48 letters, never mind a head of steam for a full VoNC.
perhaps OGH's continual cry that the ERG are all piss and wind is looking correct tonight?
The ERG are piss and wind, the trouble is she doesn't even have the support of the people she supposedly chose, i.e. the cabinet. Nor does she look able to fill the Brexit secretary role, the optics of which are absolutely abominable. Nobody will touch it. What does that say?
That it was a less than brilliant idea to create it.
Arrogance and privilege cause a peculiar form of blindness...
I think he's waiting to see which way the win is blowing - He'll go in the end.
Ultimately I don't think this will even go to 28 letters/VONC. I think the Cabinet will force her to resign in the end....
Hunt and Javid are key. If either of them resign she's done.
And yet...
7:25pm, and apparently still not 48 letters, never mind a head of steam for a full VoNC.
perhaps OGH's continual cry that the ERG are all piss and wind is looking correct tonight?
I don't understand what they expect to achieve. They don't like the deal, but there's no prospect of the EU reopening negotiations to give them a better deal. HoC is not going to allow anything remotely like no deal, so the only alternative is to have another referendum, which will most likely be the end of Brext altogether. They're just morons.
Listening to R4 earlier, there was a Sir Somebody on who said that a three-way referendum was a non-starter because the HoC would never agree to it. It would be too damaging and nobody wants No Deal.
The referendum would be binary - May's deal or Remain
I think he's waiting to see which way the win is blowing - He'll go in the end.
Ultimately I don't think this will even go to 28 letters/VONC. I think the Cabinet will force her to resign in the end....
Hunt and Javid are key. If either of them resign she's done.
And yet...
7:25pm, and apparently still not 48 letters, never mind a head of steam for a full VoNC.
perhaps OGH's continual cry that the ERG are all piss and wind is looking correct tonight?
The ERG are piss and wind, the trouble is she doesn't even have the support of the people she supposedly chose, i.e. the cabinet. Nor does she look able to fill the Brexit secretary role, the optics of which are absolutely abominable. Nobody will touch it. What does that say?
That it was a less than brilliant idea to create it.
May has always been the Brexit Secretary in reality. Raab wa naive to take it after Davis was by passed.
Is he making some push for the leadership in a plan with the Mogg ?
Or is he a complete fecking moron ?
It’s hard to say but I’d go with psychopath.
Someone who hears one of his cabinet colleagues say, “I cannot guarantee essential medicine availability” and thinks, “the anvil of my Europhobia is more important” is someone I wouldn’t want to rely on.
Without going overboard, are there any pharmacists on PB? I think we get shortages of medicines now where some suppliers stock out for days of a particular drug / dosage and alternatives have to be given. How resilient is the currents supply system in the event of delays of a few weeks caused by storms in the Channel / North Sea? What should we do to address that?
The Guardian had an article with an alarmist headline, but in the small print was the fact that the UK already stocks 6 yo 7 weeks supply of drugs. For Brexit the would be doubled to 12 to 14 weeks.
I think he's waiting to see which way the win is blowing - He'll go in the end.
Ultimately I don't think this will even go to 28 letters/VONC. I think the Cabinet will force her to resign in the end....
Hunt and Javid are key. If either of them resign she's done.
And yet...
7:25pm, and apparently still not 48 letters, never mind a head of steam for a full VoNC.
perhaps OGH's continual cry that the ERG are all piss and wind is looking correct tonight?
I don't understand what they expect to achieve. They don't like the deal, but there's no prospect of the EU reopening negotiations to give them a better deal. HoC is not going to allow anything remotely like no deal, so the only alternative is to have another referendum, which will most likely be the end of Brext altogether. They're just morons.
Listening to R4 earlier, there was a Sir Somebody on who said that a three-way referendum was a non-starter because the HoC would never agree to it. It would be too damaging and nobody wants No Deal.
The referendum would be binary - May's deal or Remain
I look at the Tory and Labour front benches, at the ERG, at backbenchers who have achieved nothing in life popping up to talk utter shite and the only image that comes to mind is of ropes and lampposts.
They are an absolute shower, the lot of them.
Cameron's deal was not as brilliant as he tried to make out. Too technical and too liable to successful legal challenge. But it was better than what is on offer now.
What is on offer now will undoubtedly be better than No Deal. And will also, I am willing to guess, be better than any future deal if the government falls.
I've lost patience with our politicians. I can imagine the EU must feel absolutely sick to the back teeth of them. Why on earth why would they offer something better than this.
What our dimwit politicians don't seem to understand is what anyone facing redundancy knows - the first round will be best. The longer you stay, the longer you hold out, the worse the offer gets.
If in any future election a Tory canvasser comes to my house claiming that I must vote for them rather than Corbyn because of the chaos he will bring, they will live to regret it.......
I think he's waiting to see which way the win is blowing - He'll go in the end.
Ultimately I don't think this will even go to 28 letters/VONC. I think the Cabinet will force her to resign in the end....
Hunt and Javid are key. If either of them resign she's done.
And yet...
7:25pm, and apparently still not 48 letters, never mind a head of steam for a full VoNC.
perhaps OGH's continual cry that the ERG are all piss and wind is looking correct tonight?
The ERG are piss and wind, the trouble is she doesn't even have the support of the people she supposedly chose, i.e. the cabinet. Nor does she look able to fill the Brexit secretary role, the optics of which are absolutely abominable. Nobody will touch it. What does that say?
That it was a less than brilliant idea to create it.
May has always been the Brexit Secretary in reality. Raab wa naive to take it after Davis was by passed.
I don't know.
He's given himself a big publicity boost, had a seat in the Cabinet (always important when choosing a PM) and an "honorable" resignation doesn't do anyone any harm...
I look at the Tory and Labour front benches, at the ERG, at backbenchers who have achieved nothing in life popping up to talk utter shite and the only image that comes to mind is of ropes and lampposts... If in any future election a Tory canvasser comes to my house claiming that I must vote for them rather than Corbyn because of the chaos he will bring, they will live to regret it.......
So you won't follow through on the ropes and lampposts threat then?
Subtle shift in Corbyn's position spotted by the Gusardian:
"... If we cannot get a general election, in line with our conference policy, we will support all options remaining on the table, including campaigning for a public vote."
[Guardian comment] So, Corbyn is being explicit with members: He will back another referendum if he cannot force a general election.
Is he making some push for the leadership in a plan with the Mogg ?
Or is he a complete fecking moron ?
It’s hard to say but I’d go with psychopath.
Someone who hears one of his cabinet colleagues say, “I cannot guarantee essential medicine availability” and thinks, “the anvil of my Europhobia is more important” is someone I wouldn’t want to rely on.
Without going overboard, are there any pharmacists on PB? I think we get shortages of medicines now where some suppliers stock out for days of a particular drug / dosage and alternatives have to be given. How resilient is the currents supply system in the event of delays of a few weeks caused by storms in the Channel / North Sea? What should we do to address that?
The Guardian had an article with an alarmist headline, but in the small print was the fact that the UK already stocks 6 yo 7 weeks supply of drugs. For Brexit the would be doubled to 12 to 14 weeks.
IIRC the real concern is perishable drugs like insulins. I think I'm right in saying that the UK is a net importer. Paging @Charles.
Why would Gove resign given that he apparently supported May at yesterday's Cabinet meeting?
The word is 'apparently'.
There was no vote at Cabinet. They were bounced by May.
Oh please - you don't need to vote to indicate your support or not. Were people prevented from saying 'I cannot support this Prime Minister' because there wasn't a vote?
Of all the nonsense talked about today, from people assuming Labour MPs will vote for this on masse to people expecting an easy renegotiation, this particular strand is one of the most baffling to me.
I think he's waiting to see which way the win is blowing - He'll go in the end.
Ultimately I don't think this will even go to 28 letters/VONC. I think the Cabinet will force her to resign in the end....
Hunt and Javid are key. If either of them resign she's done.
And yet...
7:25pm, and apparently still not 48 letters, never mind a head of steam for a full VoNC.
perhaps OGH's continual cry that the ERG are all piss and wind is looking correct tonight?
The ERG are piss and wind, the trouble is she doesn't even have the support of the people she supposedly chose, i.e. the cabinet. Nor does she look able to fill the Brexit secretary role, the optics of which are absolutely abominable. Nobody will touch it. What does that say?
That it was a less than brilliant idea to create it.
May has always been the Brexit Secretary in reality. Raab wa naive to take it after Davis was by passed.
So why didn't he resign or at least speak out, even if only through lobby briefings, once he realised the job was a sinecure?
Subtle shift in Corbyn's position spotted by the Gusardian:
"... If we cannot get a general election, in line with our conference policy, we will support all options remaining on the table, including campaigning for a public vote."
[Guardian comment] So, Corbyn is being explicit with members: He will back another referendum if he cannot force a general election.
I think he's waiting to see which way the win is blowing - He'll go in the end.
Ultimately I don't think this will even go to 28 letters/VONC. I think the Cabinet will force her to resign in the end....
Hunt and Javid are key. If either of them resign she's done.
And yet...
7:25pm, and apparently still not 48 letters, never mind a head of steam for a full VoNC.
perhaps OGH's continual cry that the ERG are all piss and wind is looking correct tonight?
I don't understand what they expect to achieve. They don't like the deal, but there's no prospect of the EU reopening negotiations to give them a better deal. HoC is not going to allow anything remotely like no deal, so the only alternative is to have another referendum, which will most likely be the end of Brext altogether. They're just morons.
Listening to R4 earlier, there was a Sir Somebody on who said that a three-way referendum was a non-starter because the HoC would never agree to it. It would be too damaging and nobody wants No Deal.
The referendum would be binary - May's deal or Remain
At this moment the House of Commons would be unable to agree a motion that rain is wet, or that pineapple pizza eaters are evil, or that Putin's a murderous knobstick.
Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, has resigned 24 hours after the Brexit plan was revealed.
If he was being kept out the loop as Brexit secretary, he should have resigned on the basis he wasn't being allowed to do his job.
It cannot be the case that he didn't see the plan before it went to Cabinet. So how can he resign after Cabinet?
It makes no sense. Either he hated it before, in which case he shouldn't have even been in the Cabinet meeting. Or he changed his mind afterwards, in which case he's a dick.
Subtle shift in Corbyn's position spotted by the Gusardian:
"... If we cannot get a general election, in line with our conference policy, we will support all options remaining on the table, including campaigning for a public vote."
[Guardian comment] So, Corbyn is being explicit with members: He will back another referendum if he cannot force a general election.
Entirely unsurprising. A GE is probably coming anyway but getting the Tories to agree to one would be hard. This way he has 'tried' to avoid a referendum but reluctantly accepts it, which conveniently is what his members want anyway.
Subtle shift in Corbyn's position spotted by the Gusardian:
"... If we cannot get a general election, in line with our conference policy, we will support all options remaining on the table, including campaigning for a public vote."
[Guardian comment] So, Corbyn is being explicit with members: He will back another referendum if he cannot force a general election.
So Jezza won't be rebelling against the agreed Labour position after all. McDonnell and Starmer have made him see the light.
I look at the Tory and Labour front benches, at the ERG, at backbenchers who have achieved nothing in life popping up to talk utter shite and the only image that comes to mind is of ropes and lampposts.
They are an absolute shower, the lot of them.
Cameron's deal was not as brilliant as he tried to make out. Too technical and too liable to successful legal challenge. But it was better than what is on offer now.
What is on offer now will undoubtedly be better than No Deal. And will also, I am willing to guess, be better than any future deal if the government falls.
I've lost patience with our politicians. I can imagine the EU must feel absolutely sick to the back teeth of them. Why on earth why would they offer something better than this.
What our dimwit politicians don't seem to understand is what anyone facing redundancy knows - the first round will be best. The longer you stay, the longer you hold out, the worse the offer gets.
If in any future election a Tory canvasser comes to my house claiming that I must vote for them rather than Corbyn because of the chaos he will bring, they will live to regret it.......
The chaos line that Tories have thrown at their opponents for at least a couple of elections is going to be out of service for a long while if they have any sense.
Subtle shift in Corbyn's position spotted by the Gusardian:
"... If we cannot get a general election, in line with our conference policy, we will support all options remaining on the table, including campaigning for a public vote."
[Guardian comment] So, Corbyn is being explicit with members: He will back another referendum if he cannot force a general election.
He has been Starmered???
He will always argue he can get a general election.
Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, has resigned 24 hours after the Brexit plan was revealed.
If he was being kept out the loop as Brexit secretary, he should have resigned on the basis he wasn't being allowed to do his job.
It cannot be the case that he didn't see the plan before it went to Cabinet. So how can he resign after Cabinet?
It makes no sense. Either he hated it before, in which case he shouldn't have even been in the Cabinet meeting. Or he changed his mind afterwards, in which case he's a dick.
Subtle shift in Corbyn's position spotted by the Gusardian:
"... If we cannot get a general election, in line with our conference policy, we will support all options remaining on the table, including campaigning for a public vote."
[Guardian comment] So, Corbyn is being explicit with members: He will back another referendum if he cannot force a general election.
I think absent an election a second referendum and a remain vote would really hurt the Conservatives so good in the longer term.
I think there are about 40MPs who won't vote for, 10 will be persuaded to abstain which means we need 30 Labour rebels to get it through. I think it's possible
Only if they believe their CLP's won't automatically deselect them, then your argument might stand, but they will never be reelected to the best club in London again.
For those representing Remainery seats in London, Manchester and Birmingham I suspect the gamble seems less.
Hoey is a dead woman walking on that basis.
That was said for the last election...Look at her majority
Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, has resigned 24 hours after the Brexit plan was revealed.
If he was being kept out the loop as Brexit secretary, he should have resigned on the basis he wasn't being allowed to do his job.
It cannot be the case that he didn't see the plan before it went to Cabinet. So how can he resign after Cabinet?
It makes no sense. Either he hated it before, in which case he shouldn't have even been in the Cabinet meeting. Or he changed his mind afterwards, in which case he's a dick.
I think he's waiting to see which way the win is blowing - He'll go in the end.
Ultimately I don't think this will even go to 28 letters/VONC. I think the Cabinet will force her to resign in the end....
Hunt and Javid are key. If either of them resign she's done.
And yet...
7:25pm, and apparently still not 48 letters, never mind a head of steam for a full VoNC.
perhaps OGH's continual cry that the ERG are all piss and wind is looking correct tonight?
That's what I say. This won't get to VONC/28 letters. The Cabinet will step in after Gove and Hunt and/or/Javid resign.
OK. So May goes, and then what?
You tell me...
I'd like the ERG to tell us. It's them who are trying to get rid of her. So what's their plan if they succeed?
IDK, but the Bow Group for example want a caretaker leader to take over, with a full leadership election 'once the brexit process is completed' so they at least live in a fantasy world where an alternative leader can massively change Brexit direction with total unity in the party until Brexit day.
Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, has resigned 24 hours after the Brexit plan was revealed.
If he was being kept out the loop as Brexit secretary, he should have resigned on the basis he wasn't being allowed to do his job.
It cannot be the case that he didn't see the plan before it went to Cabinet. So how can he resign after Cabinet?
It makes no sense. Either he hated it before, in which case he shouldn't have even been in the Cabinet meeting. Or he changed his mind afterwards, in which case he's a dick.
The info in some of the press is that he got to see it just before cabinet, it was 500 pages. During cabinet stuff was revealed about what was in it that he had not had time to read and these meant resignation. Immediately after cabinet he saw the Chief Whip and told him he was resigning.
Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, has resigned 24 hours after the Brexit plan was revealed.
If he was being kept out the loop as Brexit secretary, he should have resigned on the basis he wasn't being allowed to do his job.
It cannot be the case that he didn't see the plan before it went to Cabinet. So how can he resign after Cabinet?
It makes no sense. Either he hated it before, in which case he shouldn't have even been in the Cabinet meeting. Or he changed his mind afterwards, in which case he's a dick.
I doubt he was particularly involved in the negotiations at all. May and Robbins were running the show and they were probably stringing him along Re. the backstop.
Alternatively maybe he always knew he was taking the job just so he could resign at the moment of his choosing after giving himself a big career boost. Or in other words, he's played the game better than some...
I look at the Tory and Labour front benches, at the ERG, at backbenchers who have achieved nothing in life popping up to talk utter shite and the only image that comes to mind is of ropes and lampposts.
They are an absolute shower, the lot of them.
Cameron's deal was not as brilliant as he tried to make out. Too technical and too liable to successful legal challenge. But it was better than what is on offer now.
What is on offer now will undoubtedly be better than No Deal. And will also, I am willing to guess, be better than any future deal if the government falls.
I've lost patience with our politicians. I can imagine the EU must feel absolutely sick to the back teeth of them. Why on earth why would they offer something better than this.
What our dimwit politicians don't seem to understand is what anyone facing redundancy knows - the first round will be best. The longer you stay, the longer you hold out, the worse the offer gets.
If in any future election a Tory canvasser comes to my house claiming that I must vote for them rather than Corbyn because of the chaos he will bring, they will live to regret it.......
The chaos line that Tories have thrown at their opponents for at least a couple of elections is going to be out of service for a long while if they have any sense.
I quite agree. They are utterly trashing their USP. They are making Corbyn look like the sane option. And I am hardly his greatest fan. If Labour were led by a leader without his negatives, even I would vote for them at the moment, I feel that furious with the ERG mob and their idiotic little helpers.
I do not like May - though I admire her doggedness, especially given her health. But at least she is trying her best, inadequate as it may be. But her party are behaving in the most childishly, self-indulgent and frivolous way, given what is at stake. If the Brexiteers really felt that leaving was worth doing, then they had an obligation to think about it properly and prepare for it and come up with coherent and achievable plans. They have done none of this and should simply now shut up.
I think there are about 40MPs who won't vote for, 10 will be persuaded to abstain which means we need 30 Labour rebels to get it through. I think it's possible
Only if they believe their CLP's won't automatically deselect them, then your argument might stand, but they will never be reelected to the best club in London again.
For those representing Remainery seats in London, Manchester and Birmingham I suspect the gamble seems less.
Hoey is a dead woman walking on that basis.
That was said for the last election...Look at her majority
Wasn't she deselected during the summer?
Hoey has said she will vote against the deal.
Also I can't remember exactly what it was, no confidence maybe?, but basically more of an indicator that they could reselect (or pressure her to retire) she has her seat until the next election or until she chooses to stand down at least.
I think he's waiting to see which way the win is blowing - He'll go in the end.
Ultimately I don't think this will even go to 28 letters/VONC. I think the Cabinet will force her to resign in the end....
Hunt and Javid are key. If either of them resign she's done.
And yet...
7:25pm, and apparently still not 48 letters, never mind a head of steam for a full VoNC.
perhaps OGH's continual cry that the ERG are all piss and wind is looking correct tonight?
The ERG are piss and wind, the trouble is she doesn't even have the support of the people she supposedly chose, i.e. the cabinet. Nor does she look able to fill the Brexit secretary role, the optics of which are absolutely abominable. Nobody will touch it. What does that say?
That it was a less than brilliant idea to create it.
If she does fail to/decide not to appoint, she could improve the optics by appointing herself Brexit Secretary... “taking personal charge.. cutting through the noise.. leading from the front.. rising above intra-cabinet squabbles”. Hire a deputy with a brief to look after other domestic business for the next six months.
It’s only formalising the current position (whose payroll are you on again, Olly?) and absolutely ties her to failure (that ship already sailed).
Is he making some push for the leadership in a plan with the Mogg ?
Or is he a complete fecking moron ?
It's the same as Boris and Davis - help negotiate a deal, sign it off as part of cabinet responsibility, then run away the following day once the media reaction reveals that you're not quite as clever as you thought you were. Blaming Sir Humphrey just emphasises the fact that you are playing the role of Jim Hacker.
Is he making some push for the leadership in a plan with the Mogg ?
Or is he a complete fecking moron ?
It’s hard to say but I’d go with psychopath.
Someone who hears one of his cabinet colleagues say, “I cannot guarantee essential medicine availability” and thinks, “the anvil of my Europhobia is more important” is someone I wouldn’t want to rely on.
Without going overboard, are there any pharmacists on PB? I think we get shortages of medicines now where some suppliers stock out for days of a particular drug / dosage and alternatives have to be given. How resilient is the currents supply system in the event of delays of a few weeks caused by storms in the Channel / North Sea? What should we do to address that?
The Guardian had an article with an alarmist headline, but in the small print was the fact that the UK already stocks 6 yo 7 weeks supply of drugs. For Brexit the would be doubled to 12 to 14 weeks.
IIRC the real concern is perishable drugs like insulins. I think I'm right in saying that the UK is a net importer. Paging @Charles.
True and this is where they have said they will fly them in if needs be.
The only solution is the EEA to keep trade flowing. 52:48 is not a mandate for either no deal nor no Brexit.
*Sigh!*
For the 10,000th time - as EU members we cannot join the EEA. The EU and EEA treaties forbid it. Once out we cannot directly join the EEA, we have to apply to join EFTA and if that is approved then we can apply for EEA.
The trade will not keep flowing in the interim of Leave Eu -> Apply EFTA -> Wait -> Join EFTA -> Apply EEA -> join EEA. In any case we would be back were we are now and less influence.
So what is the point of leaving?
Wrong. Countries can and have moved from EFTA to EU. We would simply be doing the reverse.
Sure, we can do the reverse, if we get the unanimous formal consent of 31 other countries. Won't be quick, though.
At least Moldova wouldn't be one of them, dodged a bullet there.
I look at the Tory and Labour front benches, at the ERG, at backbenchers who have achieved nothing in life popping up to talk utter shite and the only image that comes to mind is of ropes and lampposts... If in any future election a Tory canvasser comes to my house claiming that I must vote for them rather than Corbyn because of the chaos he will bring, they will live to regret it.......
So you won't follow through on the ropes and lampposts threat then?
Subtle shift in Corbyn's position spotted by the Gusardian:
"... If we cannot get a general election, in line with our conference policy, we will support all options remaining on the table, including campaigning for a public vote."
[Guardian comment] So, Corbyn is being explicit with members: He will back another referendum if he cannot force a general election.
I think absent an election a second referendum and a remain vote would really hurt the Conservatives so good in the longer term.
His position is "We will support a second referendum as long as we are not in a position to make one happen."
He has done everything he can to cause a no deal Brexit, but drops just enough 'nuance' to keep Remainers believing he their best hope, and his toadies on social media exagerrate these comments.
Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, has resigned 24 hours after the Brexit plan was revealed.
If he was being kept out the loop as Brexit secretary, he should have resigned on the basis he wasn't being allowed to do his job.
It cannot be the case that he didn't see the plan before it went to Cabinet. So how can he resign after Cabinet?
It makes no sense. Either he hated it before, in which case he shouldn't have even been in the Cabinet meeting. Or he changed his mind afterwards, in which case he's a dick.
The info in some of the press is that he got to see it just before cabinet, it was 500 pages. During cabinet stuff was revealed about what was in it that he had not had time to read and these meant resignation. Immediately after cabinet he saw the Chief Whip and told him he was resigning.
A ridiculous and implausible story. He should have resigned immediately in that scenario. By waiting 24 hours he's looking a fool.
My guess is he was persuaded as a 'first step,' has been 'got at' by somebody and is now trying to wriggle his way off the hook he's impaled himself on.
I look at the Tory and Labour front benches, at the ERG, at backbenchers who have achieved nothing in life popping up to talk utter shite and the only image that comes to mind is of ropes and lampposts... If in any future election a Tory canvasser comes to my house claiming that I must vote for them rather than Corbyn because of the chaos he will bring, they will live to regret it.......
So you won't follow through on the ropes and lampposts threat then?
Don't tempt me.....
Well, living in Cumberland I know you would find it difficult!
Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, has resigned 24 hours after the Brexit plan was revealed.
If he was being kept out the loop as Brexit secretary, he should have resigned on the basis he wasn't being allowed to do his job.
It cannot be the case that he didn't see the plan before it went to Cabinet. So how can he resign after Cabinet?
It makes no sense. Either he hated it before, in which case he shouldn't have even been in the Cabinet meeting. Or he changed his mind afterwards, in which case he's a dick.
Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, has resigned 24 hours after the Brexit plan was revealed.
If he was being kept out the loop as Brexit secretary, he should have resigned on the basis he wasn't being allowed to do his job.
It cannot be the case that he didn't see the plan before it went to Cabinet. So how can he resign after Cabinet?
It makes no sense. Either he hated it before, in which case he shouldn't have even been in the Cabinet meeting. Or he changed his mind afterwards, in which case he's a dick.
I look at the Tory and Labour front benches, at the ERG, at backbenchers who have achieved nothing in life popping up to talk utter shite and the only image that comes to mind is of ropes and lampposts.
They are an absolute shower, the lot of them.
Cameron's deal was not as brilliant as he tried to make out. Too technical and too liable to successful legal challenge. But it was better than what is on offer now.
What is on offer now will undoubtedly be better than No Deal. And will also, I am willing to guess, be better than any future deal if the government falls.
I've lost patience with our politicians. I can imagine the EU must feel absolutely sick to the back teeth of them. Why on earth why would they offer something better than this.
What our dimwit politicians don't seem to understand is what anyone facing redundancy knows - the first round will be best. The longer you stay, the longer you hold out, the worse the offer gets.
If in any future election a Tory canvasser comes to my house claiming that I must vote for them rather than Corbyn because of the chaos he will bring, they will live to regret it.......
The chaos line that Tories have thrown at their opponents for at least a couple of elections is going to be out of service for a long while if they have any sense.
Most Tories will vote for a Brexit deal that has the full backing of business. Most Labour MPs will be voting for the train wreck no deal.
Subtle shift in Corbyn's position spotted by the Gusardian:
"... If we cannot get a general election, in line with our conference policy, we will support all options remaining on the table, including campaigning for a public vote."
[Guardian comment] So, Corbyn is being explicit with members: He will back another referendum if he cannot force a general election.
Why not back one now? Labour are lying about the possibility of negotiating a customs union in which we would have a say over the EU's trade deals.
Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, has resigned 24 hours after the Brexit plan was revealed.
If he was being kept out the loop as Brexit secretary, he should have resigned on the basis he wasn't being allowed to do his job.
It cannot be the case that he didn't see the plan before it went to Cabinet. So how can he resign after Cabinet?
It makes no sense. Either he hated it before, in which case he shouldn't have even been in the Cabinet meeting. Or he changed his mind afterwards, in which case he's a dick.
Because as with Chequers, they all sat on their hands to see how it played out.
Being charitable, he might have wanted to give May a news cycle to get the message out before he shat on her (given his highly emollient tone today). But even that action may have been judged so he comes across as a nicer bloke than storming out au Helestine.
Subtle shift in Corbyn's position spotted by the Gusardian:
"... If we cannot get a general election, in line with our conference policy, we will support all options remaining on the table, including campaigning for a public vote."
[Guardian comment] So, Corbyn is being explicit with members: He will back another referendum if he cannot force a general election.
Why not back one now? Labour are lying about the possibility of negotiating a customs union in which we would have a say over the EU's trade deals.
I think we should consider the possibility it's because he's a duplicitous, dishonest and shameless tosser who is actually trying to force no deal.
It might be that he's just grossly incompetent and very thick, but surely nobody could be this thick.
The chaos line that Tories have thrown at their opponents for at least a couple of elections is going to be out of service for a long while if they have any sense.
I quite agree. They are utterly trashing their USP. They are making Corbyn look like the sane option. And I am hardly his greatest fan. If Labour were led by a leader without his negatives, even I would vote for them at the moment, I feel that furious with the ERG mob and their idiotic little helpers.
I do not like May - though I admire her doggedness, especially given her health. But at least she is trying her best, inadequate as it may be. But her party are behaving in the most childishly, self-indulgent and frivolous way, given what is at stake. If the Brexiteers really felt that leaving was worth doing, then they had an obligation to think about it properly and prepare for it and come up with coherent and achievable plans. They have done of this and should simply now shut up.
I wonder if the Conservatives will need to go through a long painful process of detaching themselves from the hardcore Eurosceptics. Win the battle within the party at the cost of some support to make themselves a relevant force once again.
I don't like to talk about demographics being destiny but I don't see how the Tory party moves on to succeed in the future with these people in prominent roles giving their actions which will be remembered for a while and the age makeup of the Brexit vote. I see nothing which would have won over the swathes of younger voters who voted remain but more likely an increasing detachment from the Conservatives among younger groups they should be doing well in.
Having the ERG and Brexit front and centre makes them appear like something from the distant past and is going to hold them back among many voters under 40 (maybe even 50)
Subtle shift in Corbyn's position spotted by the Gusardian:
"... If we cannot get a general election, in line with our conference policy, we will support all options remaining on the table, including campaigning for a public vote."
[Guardian comment] So, Corbyn is being explicit with members: He will back another referendum if he cannot force a general election.
Why not back one now? Labour are lying about the possibility of negotiating a customs union in which we would have a say over the EU's trade deals.
I think we should consider the possibility it's becuase he's a duplicitous, dishonest and shameless tosser who is actually trying to force no deal.
It might be that he's just grossly incompetent and very thick, but surely nobody could be this thick.
Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, has resigned 24 hours after the Brexit plan was revealed.
If he was being kept out the loop as Brexit secretary, he should have resigned on the basis he wasn't being allowed to do his job.
It cannot be the case that he didn't see the plan before it went to Cabinet. So how can he resign after Cabinet?
It makes no sense. Either he hated it before, in which case he shouldn't have even been in the Cabinet meeting. Or he changed his mind afterwards, in which case he's a dick.
'He's a dick' is the only plausible explanation.
He’s an ambitious politician.
'Dick' is shorter.
He’s too short. I’ve been laying him big time on Betfair as I fail to see why he should be 7/1 for next Tory leader.
I wish they'd get on with it - while I believe them that May does not have the support of the party, if you are still struggling to pull together 48 measly letters I will have to assume that she does have their support.
Rather emphasises the point that the best thing she could have done would be to have called her own VONC on 30 March 2018. Granted, her record on unnecessary elections isn't the best, but assuming she wins it then it flushes the poison as it makes clear that she is in post until Brexit happens, unless the ERG are sufficiently nativitatomeleagrine to press the button on a general election.
Subtle shift in Corbyn's position spotted by the Gusardian:
"... If we cannot get a general election, in line with our conference policy, we will support all options remaining on the table, including campaigning for a public vote."
[Guardian comment] So, Corbyn is being explicit with members: He will back another referendum if he cannot force a general election.
Why not back one now? Labour are lying about the possibility of negotiating a customs union in which we would have a say over the EU's trade deals.
I think we should consider the possibility it's becuase he's a duplicitous, dishonest and shameless tosser who is actually trying to force no deal.
It might be that he's just grossly incompetent and very thick, but surely nobody could be this thick.
While I am not exactly Lenin's biggest fan, suggesting that the thought processes of one of the twentieth centuries most significant and influential intellectuals and politicians is in any way comparable to that of Corbyn is grotesque.
(And it wasn't Lenin that purged Mensheviks, it was Stalin.)
The chaos line that Tories have thrown at their opponents for at least a couple of elections is going to be out of service for a long while if they have any sense.
I quite agree. They are utterly trashing their USP. They are making Corbyn look like the sane option. And I am hardly his greatest fan. If Labour were led by a leader without his negatives, even I would vote for them at the moment, I feel that furious with the ERG mob and their idiotic little helpers.
I do not like May - though I admire her doggedness, especially given her health. But at least she is trying her best, inadequate as it may be. But her party are behaving in the most childishly, self-indulgent and frivolous way, given what is at stake. If the Brexiteers really felt that leaving was worth doing, then they had an obligation to think about it properly and prepare for it and come up with coherent and achievable plans. They have done of this and should simply now shut up.
I wonder if the Conservatives will need to go through a long painful process of detaching themselves from the hardcore Eurosceptics. Win the battle within the party at the cost of some support to make themselves a relevant force once again.
ANother reason for Labour to support the deal - if it gets through under May, there has to be a good chance of a Tory split. How can one say all they have and stay in a party which approved such a deal?
On a random thought I wish I have a fiver for every time I have read that one of the problems with our political system is that the MP's get whipped and this is bad for free thought and representing constituents. So here we have the ERG resisting whipping and as they believe representing their constituents and this is now a bad thing. Well just seems they can never win.
Without going overboard, are there any pharmacists on PB? I think we get shortages of medicines now where some suppliers stock out for days of a particular drug / dosage and alternatives have to be given. How resilient is the currents supply system in the event of delays of a few weeks caused by storms in the Channel / North Sea? What should we do to address that?
If only we could build a tunnel that could avoid any weather delays in the Channel.....
And in reality "storms" blow over - the Channel ports are never closed for more than a day or two by weather. The worst we had in recent years was the extended strike at Calais in 2015, but again there were other routes - and in extremis many pharmaceuticals are high enough value to fly in.
I think he's waiting to see which way the win is blowing - He'll go in the end.
Ultimately I don't think this will even go to 28 letters/VONC. I think the Cabinet will force her to resign in the end....
Hunt and Javid are key. If either of them resign she's done.
And yet...
7:25pm, and apparently still not 48 letters, never mind a head of steam for a full VoNC.
perhaps OGH's continual cry that the ERG are all piss and wind is looking correct tonight?
That's what I say. This won't get to VONC/28 letters. The Cabinet will step in after Gove and Hunt and/or/Javid resign.
OK. So May goes, and then what?
You tell me...
I'd like the ERG to tell us. It's them who are trying to get rid of her. So what's their plan if they succeed?
I thought the ERG wanted a No Deal Brexit?
So how are they going to get that one through the HoC?
By voting down the only deal on offer, and not reversing A50, we leave with No Deal by default.
I don't really think the 500+ MPs who see No Deal as a disaster for the country would allow that to happen. PM Raab would be voted down on every single proposal he'd put to the House.
Comments
Hoey is a dead woman walking on that basis.
Mind you, one more unnecessary row about something ridiculously unimportant and I may well be unemployed as well due to my having stormed out of the gate.
Somehow I doubt it!
I want to know my judgement that it is a good and worthwhile compromise is correct.
Ultimately I don't think this will even go to 28 letters/VONC. I think the Cabinet will force her to resign in the end....
Hunt and Javid are key. If either of them resign she's done.
"I can't remember who it was that said that nothing matters very much and hardly anything matters at all," he said.
"But if I say that to myself five times a day, then you do think, 'let's calm down, there must be a funny side to this'."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43188960
7:25pm, and apparently still not 48 letters, never mind a head of steam for a full VoNC.
perhaps OGH's continual cry that the ERG are all piss and wind is looking correct tonight?
https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1063105263153172483
The referendum would be binary - May's deal or Remain
They are an absolute shower, the lot of them.
Cameron's deal was not as brilliant as he tried to make out. Too technical and too liable to successful legal challenge. But it was better than what is on offer now.
What is on offer now will undoubtedly be better than No Deal. And will also, I am willing to guess, be better than any future deal if the government falls.
I've lost patience with our politicians. I can imagine the EU must feel absolutely sick to the back teeth of them. Why on earth why would they offer something better than this.
What our dimwit politicians don't seem to understand is what anyone facing redundancy knows - the first round will be best. The longer you stay, the longer you hold out, the worse the offer gets.
If in any future election a Tory canvasser comes to my house claiming that I must vote for them rather than Corbyn because of the chaos he will bring, they will live to regret it.......
There was no vote at Cabinet. They were bounced by May.
He's given himself a big publicity boost, had a seat in the Cabinet (always important when choosing a PM) and an "honorable" resignation doesn't do anyone any harm...
"... If we cannot get a general election, in line with our conference policy, we will support all options remaining on the table, including campaigning for a public vote."
[Guardian comment] So, Corbyn is being explicit with members: He will back another referendum if he cannot force a general election.
Of all the nonsense talked about today, from people assuming Labour MPs will vote for this on masse to people expecting an easy renegotiation, this particular strand is one of the most baffling to me.
That is sort of the problem.
Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, has resigned 24 hours after the Brexit plan was revealed.
If he was being kept out the loop as Brexit secretary, he should have resigned on the basis he wasn't being allowed to do his job.
It cannot be the case that he didn't see the plan before it went to Cabinet. So how can he resign after Cabinet?
It makes no sense. Either he hated it before, in which case he shouldn't have even been in the Cabinet meeting. Or he changed his mind afterwards, in which case he's a dick.
That he didn't understand it.
In which case he shouldn't be a Minister.
Sensible.
Alternatively maybe he always knew he was taking the job just so he could resign at the moment of his choosing after giving himself a big career boost. Or in other words, he's played the game better than some...
I do not like May - though I admire her doggedness, especially given her health. But at least she is trying her best, inadequate as it may be. But her party are behaving in the most childishly, self-indulgent and frivolous way, given what is at stake. If the Brexiteers really felt that leaving was worth doing, then they had an obligation to think about it properly and prepare for it and come up with coherent and achievable plans. They have done none of this and should simply now shut up.
Also I can't remember exactly what it was, no confidence maybe?, but basically more of an indicator that they could reselect (or pressure her to retire) she has her seat until the next election or until she chooses to stand down at least.
It’s only formalising the current position (whose payroll are you on again, Olly?) and absolutely ties her to failure (that ship already sailed).
Don't tempt me.....
He has done everything he can to cause a no deal Brexit, but drops just enough 'nuance' to keep Remainers believing he their best hope, and his toadies on social media exagerrate these comments.
My guess is he was persuaded as a 'first step,' has been 'got at' by somebody and is now trying to wriggle his way off the hook he's impaled himself on.
I suspect that’s their thinking. It’s flawed because something will, I suspect.
I wish they hadn't acted today, but I think it is too soon to say they've been ineffective.
Being charitable, he might have wanted to give May a news cycle to get the message out before he shat on her (given his highly emollient tone today). But even that action may have been judged so he comes across as a nicer bloke than storming out au Helestine.
It might be that he's just grossly incompetent and very thick, but surely nobody could be this thick.
I don't like to talk about demographics being destiny but I don't see how the Tory party moves on to succeed in the future with these people in prominent roles giving their actions which will be remembered for a while and the age makeup of the Brexit vote. I see nothing which would have won over the swathes of younger voters who voted remain but more likely an increasing detachment from the Conservatives among younger groups they should be doing well in.
Having the ERG and Brexit front and centre makes them appear like something from the distant past and is going to hold them back among many voters under 40 (maybe even 50)
https://twitter.com/AdamPosen/status/1063112263408779264
(And it wasn't Lenin that purged Mensheviks, it was Stalin.)
And in reality "storms" blow over - the Channel ports are never closed for more than a day or two by weather. The worst we had in recent years was the extended strike at Calais in 2015, but again there were other routes - and in extremis many pharmaceuticals are high enough value to fly in.