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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If TMay survives a confidence vote she’d be immune from anothe

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,630



    If Brady didn't have the letters before surely he will now

    Good! MPs who want her gone need to step up, not wait for her to make that choice to save them the task.
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    Theo said:

    She's still hoping for something, ANYTHING, to save her deal when eventually it goes to a vote

    She is rightfully putting it to a vote so all those morally irresponsible ERG and Labour MPs can be on record as causing the no deal crash.
    Yes, as a tactic, but it's not in the national interest to actually let that then ultimately happen - otherwise it is ultimately on her (as history will judge it)
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    TheoTheo Posts: 325

    I don't blame her for this. She got a deal.

    There is literally nothing that would satisfy the ERG nutters, other than No Deal.

    She's facing down the Tory headbangers plus Magic Grandad and the gang and telling them to vote it down, so it is on them.

    And nothing that would satisfy Labour MPs who would be happy to crash the economy to get into power.
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    Two problems with her speech
    1. She makes claims about her wonder deal not backed by fact or sanity
    2. She still thinks that saying "national interest" will make MPs change their minds and back it

    If Brady didn't have the letters before surely he will now

    https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1063117572932096002
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,097
    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    This woman needs help.

    There is a point at which one's delusion becomes so all encompassing it becomes harmful.

    Somebody who loves her surely needs to help her down gently.

    I do wish people would stop this delusion line, to the point of accusing her of mental health issues, in effect. She's being stubborn and forcing the hand of her opponents to take action rather than make it easy for them and bow out. That does not mean she is delusional even if she is acting poorly.
    Well said
    She is totally failing to engage with the problem in front of her.
    But no Tory leader for a generation has succeeded in resolving that problem. Cammo thought that he had a clever solution, and look where we are now.
    She has no choice. She needs votes and she needs them now.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,282
    currystar said:

    Jonathan said:

    She is hugely brave. Foolhardy. But brave.

    I think she is fantastic, how she does this is beyond me
    I agree she is fantastic for Labour
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    I fight on.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 48,152
    If I were a floating voter watching this I think she would be rising in my estimation
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,630

    kle4 said:

    "agreement reached in Cabinet yesterday"

    Hmm....because there was no vote.

    McVey asked for a vote at Cabinet but May blocked it (as she is entitled to do according to her Cabinet civil servant).
    Because she feard she would lose it.
    Nonsense - if that was the case there would have been a lot more resignations. The Cabinet of the United Kingdom are not children who felt compelled today to stay in post because they didn't get to have a vote at Cabinet.
    I don't think the resignations are over yet. Nowhere near.

    This conference will just make her Cabinet colleagues roll their eyes.....
    And that may well be so. I don't see what not having a vote a Cabinet has to do with anything though, since that would have no bearing on whether someone could be said to be in agreement or not.
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    Am I going to see this through. Yes
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    TheoTheo Posts: 325

    Two problems with her speech
    1. She makes claims about her wonder deal not backed by fact or sanity
    2. She still thinks that saying "national interest" will make MPs change their minds and back it

    If Brady didn't have the letters before surely he will now

    Every claim she made was correct. You don't have any good criticisms of it.
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    Two problems with her speech
    1. She makes claims about her wonder deal not backed by fact or sanity
    2. She still thinks that saying "national interest" will make MPs change their minds and back it

    If Brady didn't have the letters before surely he will now

    https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1063117572932096002
    He only has 47.999999
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,669
    If you share concerns about the backstop WHY THE HELL DID YOU ACCEPT IT????
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,306

    Two problems with her speech
    1. She makes claims about her wonder deal not backed by fact or sanity
    2. She still thinks that saying "national interest" will make MPs change their minds and back it

    If Brady didn't have the letters before surely he will now

    https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1063117572932096002
    He only has 47.999999
    Zeno's paradox...
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,281
    edited November 2018
    Theo said:

    She's still hoping for something, ANYTHING, to save her deal when eventually it goes to a vote

    She is rightfully putting it to a vote so all those morally irresponsible ERG and Labour MPs can be on record as causing the no deal crash.
    She is pressing on with the most Brexity Deal on offer for the whole UK from the EU, the only alternatives are permanent Customs Union as Corbyn wants and permanent single market or Remain as Remainers want.

    In Thatcher's words 'TINA' there is no alternative bar No Deal which leads to either EUref2 and Remain pre March or permanent single market after anyway as most voters and MPs oppose No Deal
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 48,152
    Fortifying the OK Coral is probably her only and best option right now.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,643
    She keeps saying we agreed as a Cabinet. Apart from those who didn't that is.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,618
    dixiedean said:

    Re delusion. There is tenacity. There is digging in.
    And then there is an inability to clearly perceive the situation.

    And there is also making the case for the agreement, which still has every chance of going to a vote in the HoC, or being an option in a second referendum.

    Until she's actually deposed - which is still very much in doubt - why should she not plough on ?
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    Theo said:

    I don't blame her for this. She got a deal.

    There is literally nothing that would satisfy the ERG nutters, other than No Deal.

    She's facing down the Tory headbangers plus Magic Grandad and the gang and telling them to vote it down, so it is on them.

    And nothing that would satisfy Labour MPs who would be happy to crash the economy to get into power.
    All Seumas, Corbyz and J McD care about is the whiff of power.

    I can't see it playing well with Leave voters in the Lab heartlands, if they vote down the deal.
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    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    IanB2 said:

    If I were a floating voter watching this I think she would be rising in my estimation

    She definitely has improved her performance ability since the 2017 election. Much more comfortable, even at the end of another long, difficult day
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    Theo said:

    Two problems with her speech
    1. She makes claims about her wonder deal not backed by fact or sanity
    2. She still thinks that saying "national interest" will make MPs change their minds and back it

    If Brady didn't have the letters before surely he will now

    Every claim she made was correct. You don't have any good criticisms of it.
    From you I will take that under advisement. But please keep posting. Its high quality satire
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    IanB2 said:

    If I were a floating voter watching this I think she would be rising in my estimation

    Compared to the rest of em she is a giant
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    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,262
    Best deal we are going to get so I support her position fully.
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    Are her neck muscles broken on the left side?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,630
    dixiedean said:

    Re delusion. There is tenacity. There is digging in.
    And then there is an inability to clearly perceive the situation.

    What about her suggests she has not perceived the situation? Not resigning or changing course does not indicate that, only that she intends to stick to what she believes to be the best deal, and it is for others to remove her if they don't like that. Until they formally remove her, moaning on twitter or to the press means nothing.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,618
    dixiedean said:

    She keeps saying we agreed as a Cabinet. Apart from those who didn't that is.

    But they are no longer in the cabinet, so the cabinet remains in agreement...
    :smile:
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,669

    Two problems with her speech
    1. She makes claims about her wonder deal not backed by fact or sanity
    2. She still thinks that saying "national interest" will make MPs change their minds and back it

    If Brady didn't have the letters before surely he will now

    https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1063117572932096002
    He only has 47.999999
    He has 86, but 39 of them have lost a few atoms in transit so aren't complete and don't count.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,211
    houndtang said:

    IanB2 said:

    If I were a floating voter watching this I think she would be rising in my estimation

    Compared to the rest of em she is a giant
    Except she isn't because she's delusional. You don't pick fights you can't win and you don't play chicken with the country and parliament like this.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,306

    Are her neck muscles broken on the left side?

    Craning to look at the questioner, more likely.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,097
    She needs votes. Repeating ‘I am right’ is not a proven strategy to influence and convince people. She is not changing minds.
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    When I worked for the CEO of a top ten company i remember him saying that he needed to do what was in the interests of the shareholders - and what was in the interests of the shareholders was that he run the company.

    Sounds like May.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,630

    currystar said:

    Jonathan said:

    She is hugely brave. Foolhardy. But brave.

    I think she is fantastic, how she does this is beyond me
    I agree she is fantastic for Labour
    If the deal is the best for the country that can be managed I frankly don't mind if she is good for Labour. Other parties get in eventually, it happens. Brexit will only happen once.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 48,152
    The point of this session is the questions rather than the statement.
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    One thing is for certain, it ain't as much fun as The Donald's pressers. Come on, lets get a shirty journalist, Tessie call them fake news and intern wrestling to get the mic back.
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    He has 86, but 39 of them have lost a few atoms in transit so aren't complete and don't count.

    I assume quite a few ERGers are wondering if he's been filing those letters in the nearest shredder.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,282
    Theo said:

    I don't blame her for this. She got a deal.

    There is literally nothing that would satisfy the ERG nutters, other than No Deal.

    She's facing down the Tory headbangers plus Magic Grandad and the gang and telling them to vote it down, so it is on them.

    And nothing that would satisfy Labour MPs who would be happy to crash the economy to get into power.
    Only one party is responsible for this shambles
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited November 2018

    houndtang said:

    IanB2 said:

    If I were a floating voter watching this I think she would be rising in my estimation

    Compared to the rest of em she is a giant
    Except she isn't because she's delusional. You don't pick fights you can't win and you don't play chicken with the country and parliament like this.
    She's not the one playing chicken, it's the ERG and the Continuity Remainers who are doing that, plotting to trash the deal in the hope that in the crisis they get what they want, but risking they get the opposite and/or chaos.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,211

    Theo said:

    I don't blame her for this. She got a deal.

    There is literally nothing that would satisfy the ERG nutters, other than No Deal.

    She's facing down the Tory headbangers plus Magic Grandad and the gang and telling them to vote it down, so it is on them.

    And nothing that would satisfy Labour MPs who would be happy to crash the economy to get into power.
    Only one party is responsible for this shambles
    Give over. If Labour was officially pressing for a 2nd referendum the pressure would be immense.
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    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Re delusion. There is tenacity. There is digging in.
    And then there is an inability to clearly perceive the situation.

    What about her suggests she has not perceived the situation? Not resigning or changing course does not indicate that, only that she intends to stick to what she believes to be the best deal, and it is for others to remove her if they don't like that. Until they formally remove her, moaning on twitter or to the press means nothing.
    What was the point of this press conference?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,618

    If you share concerns about the backstop WHY THE HELL DID YOU ACCEPT IT????

    Perhaps she had greater concerns about all of the alternatives ?

    As we have discussed, ad nauseam, there is no agreement which will satisfy all Leavers, or even all Tory Leavers - let alone everyone. That is the nature of compromises.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 48,152
    The £ seems to like how she is doing, at least a little.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,211

    houndtang said:

    IanB2 said:

    If I were a floating voter watching this I think she would be rising in my estimation

    Compared to the rest of em she is a giant
    Except she isn't because she's delusional. You don't pick fights you can't win and you don't play chicken with the country and parliament like this.
    She's not the one playing chicken, it's the ERG and the Continuity Remainers who are doing that, plotting to trash the deal so that in the crisis they get what they want, but risking they get the opposite and/or chaos.
    The deal is trashed already. She doesn't have the votes, even with the ERG on side.
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Theo said:

    I don't blame her for this. She got a deal.

    There is literally nothing that would satisfy the ERG nutters, other than No Deal.

    She's facing down the Tory headbangers plus Magic Grandad and the gang and telling them to vote it down, so it is on them.

    And nothing that would satisfy Labour MPs who would be happy to crash the economy to get into power.
    All the PM has to do is get her own party and her allies in the DUP on board. It is not for the opposition parties to bail her out from her folly.
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    Buzzfeed are allowed to ask questions? Are they going to do a multiple choice quiz on 'Which member of the ERG are you?'
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    whilst she will probably win a leadership vote, surely she would have to resign if she loses the Parliamentary vote on her agreement with the EU
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,630
    Jonathan said:

    She needs votes. Repeating ‘I am right’ is not a proven strategy to influence and convince people. She is not changing minds.

    I honestly don't think she is trying to change the mind of the MPs at this point. I think she is just trying to make sure her deal lasts long enough to get voted on and voted down, rather than what some seem to be trying to do and get it pulled before MPs have to stand up and be counted against it officially.

    She will then have failed in her duty, but at least parliament will have officially judged her on that score, not her party or Cabinet alone.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,282
    She doesnt regret calling GE2017

    SHES A LIAR LIAR
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    "Jeeeeee ne regrette rien! Jeeeeee ne regrette rien!"
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    Praise for Geoff Boycott from the PM.

    At last something to cheer.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,080
    edited November 2018
    Finally, a reference to the ridiculous batting order!

    Nope. Still discussing this Brexit nonsense.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,306

    She doesnt regret calling GE2017

    SHES A LIAR LIAR

    Na, it'd have been Brown all over again :p
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    What a final response. She is amazing
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    Blimey. That was a lucky last question.

    She has her headline.

    Boycott and runs.
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    Buzzfeed are allowed to ask questions? Are they going to do a multiple choice quiz on 'Which member of the ERG are you?'

    Surprised they didn't hold up an iPad with some animated gif meme...
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,669
    Boycott May.

    Hmmm, not sure that plays so well!
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    houndtang said:

    IanB2 said:

    If I were a floating voter watching this I think she would be rising in my estimation

    Compared to the rest of em she is a giant
    Except she isn't because she's delusional. You don't pick fights you can't win and you don't play chicken with the country and parliament like this.
    She's not the one playing chicken, it's the ERG and the Continuity Remainers who are doing that, plotting to trash the deal so that in the crisis they get what they want, but risking they get the opposite and/or chaos.
    The deal is trashed already. She doesn't have the votes, even with the ERG on side.
    Maybe. But, as I said, from her point of view she'll have done her duty.
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    That was such a gift that question that I am tempted to be suspicious.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 48,152
    edited November 2018
    Nigelb said:

    If you share concerns about the backstop WHY THE HELL DID YOU ACCEPT IT????

    Perhaps she had greater concerns about all of the alternatives ?

    As we have discussed, ad nauseam, there is no agreement which will satisfy all Leavers, or even all Tory Leavers - let alone everyone. That is the nature of compromises.
    Tory leavers don't speak for the country and were never the audience that needed to be satisfied in the first place. They are impossible to satisfy.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,618
    With the mention of Boycott, she has revealed her strategy: she is going to bore her opponents (and anyone watching) to death.
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    Boycott May.

    Hmmm, not sure that plays so well!

    "I'm sticking to my wicket"
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,281


    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    9m9 minutes ago

    New @skydata poll:
    Of the three Brexit outcomes Theresa May says are available, would you prefer a) her deal, b) no deal or c) no Brexit?
    No Brexit 54%
    No deal 32%
    Her deal 14%

    Confirmation No Deal kills Brexit, less than a third back it. Even No Deal plus Deal only gets to 46% though and Remain still wins
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    Theo said:

    I don't blame her for this. She got a deal.

    There is literally nothing that would satisfy the ERG nutters, other than No Deal.

    She's facing down the Tory headbangers plus Magic Grandad and the gang and telling them to vote it down, so it is on them.

    And nothing that would satisfy Labour MPs who would be happy to crash the economy to get into power.
    Only one party is responsible for this shambles
    TBF only one party has engaged with the issue and reflected the views within the country - which are split. Labour and Lib Dems unfortunately have just treated the EU as a given with nothing but platitudes as policies until the referendum. Neither is offering anything constructive a the moment either (some Labour MPs might end up doing so).
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,643
    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Re delusion. There is tenacity. There is digging in.
    And then there is an inability to clearly perceive the situation.

    What about her suggests she has not perceived the situation? Not resigning or changing course does not indicate that, only that she intends to stick to what she believes to be the best deal, and it is for others to remove her if they don't like that. Until they formally remove her, moaning on twitter or to the press means nothing.
    Merely repeating the lines which were roundly derided in the Commons. No new ideas or arguments. That is what.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,669

    houndtang said:

    IanB2 said:

    If I were a floating voter watching this I think she would be rising in my estimation

    Compared to the rest of em she is a giant
    Except she isn't because she's delusional. You don't pick fights you can't win and you don't play chicken with the country and parliament like this.
    She's not the one playing chicken, it's the ERG and the Continuity Remainers who are doing that, plotting to trash the deal so that in the crisis they get what they want, but risking they get the opposite and/or chaos.
    The deal is trashed already. She doesn't have the votes, even with the ERG on side.
    Maybe. But, as I said, from her point of view she'll have done her duty.
    In the "going down with the ship" sense of doing her duty?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,630

    Andrea Jenkyns MP

    All this build up, and another non-statement....from dancing Queen to drama Queen. Why keep fighting on Prime Minister, it is truly time to let someone who believes in Brexit and respects the democratic decision of the referendum to lead these negotiations. its truly time to go!


    I believe Jenkyns is one who has sent in her letter, but her phrasing just makes me think 'It's not about letting someone else have a go; if you assign someone to a task and they do a bad job the people who appointed them need to remove them, not moan about how they won't go willingly'
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    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    RobD said:

    Two problems with her speech
    1. She makes claims about her wonder deal not backed by fact or sanity
    2. She still thinks that saying "national interest" will make MPs change their minds and back it

    If Brady didn't have the letters before surely he will now

    https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1063117572932096002
    He only has 47.999999
    Zeno's paradox...
    Is he a leadership candidate or has he just resigned?
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited November 2018

    Blimey. That was a lucky last question.

    She has her headline.

    Boycott and runs.

    As I said below in the thread, she was given soft questions by journalists feeling sorry for her.
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    TheoTheo Posts: 325

    houndtang said:

    IanB2 said:

    If I were a floating voter watching this I think she would be rising in my estimation

    Compared to the rest of em she is a giant
    Except she isn't because she's delusional. You don't pick fights you can't win and you don't play chicken with the country and parliament like this.
    She's not the one playing chicken, it's the ERG and the Continuity Remainers who are doing that, plotting to trash the deal so that in the crisis they get what they want, but risking they get the opposite and/or chaos.
    The deal is trashed already. She doesn't have the votes, even with the ERG on side.
    Maybe. But, as I said, from her point of view she'll have done her duty.
    Duty. Honour. Selflessness. Those are British values May has in spades that the Labour Party and the ERG wouldn't recognise.
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    May's duty, presumably, was to put together a deal so awe-inspiringly terrible that it brings the whole country together in vociferous condemnation of its unspeakable shittiness.

    A deal so terrible that three times as many people prefer the catastrophic oblivion of no deal.

    Truly, May's unique political talent to please none of the people, none of the time, is a rare and special gift.
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Have checked out for 4 hours. Has anything exciting happened?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,630
    madmacs said:

    whilst she will probably win a leadership vote, surely she would have to resign if she loses the Parliamentary vote on her agreement with the EU

    I think so - I think it is all she is waiting for really.
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    ERG.

    Your turn to bowl...
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    RoyalBlue said:

    Have checked out for 4 hours. Has anything exciting happened?

    Nowt much.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,211
    The only way May can get this deal through is via a referendum. To pretend anything else is risking no deal and a risk no prime minister should take with our livelihoods.
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    Theo said:

    houndtang said:

    IanB2 said:

    If I were a floating voter watching this I think she would be rising in my estimation

    Compared to the rest of em she is a giant
    Except she isn't because she's delusional. You don't pick fights you can't win and you don't play chicken with the country and parliament like this.
    She's not the one playing chicken, it's the ERG and the Continuity Remainers who are doing that, plotting to trash the deal so that in the crisis they get what they want, but risking they get the opposite and/or chaos.
    The deal is trashed already. She doesn't have the votes, even with the ERG on side.
    Maybe. But, as I said, from her point of view she'll have done her duty.
    Duty. Honour. Selflessness. Those are British values May has in spades that the Labour Party and the ERG wouldn't recognise.
    Hi Philip...
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,306
    RoyalBlue said:

    Have checked out for 4 hours. Has anything exciting happened?

    Nothing has changed.

    *innocent face*
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,630

    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Re delusion. There is tenacity. There is digging in.
    And then there is an inability to clearly perceive the situation.

    What about her suggests she has not perceived the situation? Not resigning or changing course does not indicate that, only that she intends to stick to what she believes to be the best deal, and it is for others to remove her if they don't like that. Until they formally remove her, moaning on twitter or to the press means nothing.
    What was the point of this press conference?
    To reiterate her position on a day of multiple Cabinet resignations, I assume. What of it?
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,422
    What I did find offensive what that she repeatedly insisted that 'people voted to leave'. 48% voted to stay. It's very clear that she doesn't give a damn about our views, or care that we are gravely concerned about the routte the country is taking.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,669

    Boycott May.

    Hmmm, not sure that plays so well!

    "I'm sticking to my wicket"
    Hoping she can get her deal through on Duckworth/Lewis?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,306

    What I did find offensive what that she repeatedly insisted that 'people voted to leave'. 48% voted to stay. It's very clear that she doesn't give a damn about our views, or care that we are gravely concerned about the routte the country is taking.

    Shorthand for saying that the decision to leave was carried by a majority of voters.
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    edited November 2018

    What a final response. She is amazing

    Big g she really is not , she has become delusional to the reality staring her in the face.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,630

    Theo said:

    I don't blame her for this. She got a deal.

    There is literally nothing that would satisfy the ERG nutters, other than No Deal.

    She's facing down the Tory headbangers plus Magic Grandad and the gang and telling them to vote it down, so it is on them.

    And nothing that would satisfy Labour MPs who would be happy to crash the economy to get into power.
    Only one party is responsible for this shambles
    Maybe blaming parties can wait until after we get out of this shambles, which requires both parties no matter what (be it deal, ref, GE or extension, given the parliamentary numbers)?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,281
    HYUFD said:


    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    9m9 minutes ago

    New @skydata poll:
    Of the three Brexit outcomes Theresa May says are available, would you prefer a) her deal, b) no deal or c) no Brexit?
    No Brexit 54%
    No deal 32%
    Her deal 14%

    Confirmation No Deal kills Brexit, less than a third back it. Even No Deal plus Deal only gets to 46% though and Remain still wins
    I would personally vote for Her deal first then Remain over No Deal
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    Theo said:

    I don't blame her for this. She got a deal.

    There is literally nothing that would satisfy the ERG nutters, other than No Deal.

    She's facing down the Tory headbangers plus Magic Grandad and the gang and telling them to vote it down, so it is on them.

    And nothing that would satisfy Labour MPs who would be happy to crash the economy to get into power.
    All Seumas, Corbyz and J McD care about is the whiff of power.

    I can't see it playing well with Leave voters in the Lab heartlands, if they vote down the deal.
    Their positioning lacks finesse. They will lose support.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,097
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    She needs votes. Repeating ‘I am right’ is not a proven strategy to influence and convince people. She is not changing minds.

    I honestly don't think she is trying to change the mind of the MPs at this point. I think she is just trying to make sure her deal lasts long enough to get voted on and voted down, rather than what some seem to be trying to do and get it pulled before MPs have to stand up and be counted against it officially.

    She will then have failed in her duty, but at least parliament will have officially judged her on that score, not her party or Cabinet alone.
    Her job, her duty is to put together a majority. Just imagine what a successful PM would be doing now. Blair would have had JRM onside by now.
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    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:


    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    9m9 minutes ago

    New @skydata poll:
    Of the three Brexit outcomes Theresa May says are available, would you prefer a) her deal, b) no deal or c) no Brexit?
    No Brexit 54%
    No deal 32%
    Her deal 14%

    Confirmation No Deal kills Brexit, less than a third back it. Even No Deal plus Deal only gets to 46% though and Remain still wins
    I would personally vote for Her deal first then Remain over No Deal
    And me
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,306
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    She needs votes. Repeating ‘I am right’ is not a proven strategy to influence and convince people. She is not changing minds.

    I honestly don't think she is trying to change the mind of the MPs at this point. I think she is just trying to make sure her deal lasts long enough to get voted on and voted down, rather than what some seem to be trying to do and get it pulled before MPs have to stand up and be counted against it officially.

    She will then have failed in her duty, but at least parliament will have officially judged her on that score, not her party or Cabinet alone.
    Her job, her duty is to put together a majority. Just imagine what a successful PM would be doing now. Blair would have had JRM onside by now.
    Constrained hugely by the EU.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,207

    What I did find offensive what that she repeatedly insisted that 'people voted to leave'. 48% voted to stay. It's very clear that she doesn't give a damn about our views, or care that we are gravely concerned about the routte the country is taking.

    No, as one of the 48%, I think you are wrong there. I think she is looking to deliver someting that respects both sides which is what upsets the ERG so much.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,630

    The only way May can get this deal through is via a referendum. To pretend anything else is risking no deal and a risk no prime minister should take with our livelihoods.

    She cannot very well insist upon a referendum until such time as Parliament has actually followed through on their words and voted down her deal.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,080
    Don't agree with Ken Clarke but we seriously missed out not having him as PM. A class act.
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    madmacs said:

    whilst she will probably win a leadership vote, surely she would have to resign if she loses the Parliamentary vote on her agreement with the EU

    She would not need to resign if she had previousl;y had the backing of her party in a VONC.

    She would just go back to re-negotiate with the EU (without any success).
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,207
    kle4 said:

    The only way May can get this deal through is via a referendum. To pretend anything else is risking no deal and a risk no prime minister should take with our livelihoods.

    She cannot very well insist upon a referendum until such time as Parliament has actually followed through on their words and voted down her deal.
    No, but I suspect that's what she would do if she cannot get the HoC to approve this deal - put it to a referendum.
  • Options
    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Re delusion. There is tenacity. There is digging in.
    And then there is an inability to clearly perceive the situation.

    What about her suggests she has not perceived the situation? Not resigning or changing course does not indicate that, only that she intends to stick to what she believes to be the best deal, and it is for others to remove her if they don't like that. Until they formally remove her, moaning on twitter or to the press means nothing.
    What was the point of this press conference?
    To reiterate her position on a day of multiple Cabinet resignations, I assume. What of it?
    Because she's often been accused of being tin-eared, particularly in declarations that nothing has changed in the face of reality. Right now when her future is somewhat on the wire, she's decided to do a repeat performance to help remind waverers why they don't want her to be unmovable for a year. So to me, unless she has some motivation I don't understand, that implies that there's some aspect of this she hasn't perceived
  • Options
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    She needs votes. Repeating ‘I am right’ is not a proven strategy to influence and convince people. She is not changing minds.

    I honestly don't think she is trying to change the mind of the MPs at this point. I think she is just trying to make sure her deal lasts long enough to get voted on and voted down, rather than what some seem to be trying to do and get it pulled before MPs have to stand up and be counted against it officially.

    She will then have failed in her duty, but at least parliament will have officially judged her on that score, not her party or Cabinet alone.
    Her job, her duty is to put together a majority. Just imagine what a successful PM would be doing now. Blair would have had JRM onside by now.
    That's the Blair who gave up half our rebate in exchange for a reform to the CAP which never materialised? That Blair? Or is there some successful PM called Blair that I've forgotten about?
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:


    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    9m9 minutes ago

    New @skydata poll:
    Of the three Brexit outcomes Theresa May says are available, would you prefer a) her deal, b) no deal or c) no Brexit?
    No Brexit 54%
    No deal 32%
    Her deal 14%

    Confirmation No Deal kills Brexit, less than a third back it. Even No Deal plus Deal only gets to 46% though and Remain still wins
    I would personally vote for Her deal first then Remain over No Deal
    And me
    Me too
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,630
    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Re delusion. There is tenacity. There is digging in.
    And then there is an inability to clearly perceive the situation.

    What about her suggests she has not perceived the situation? Not resigning or changing course does not indicate that, only that she intends to stick to what she believes to be the best deal, and it is for others to remove her if they don't like that. Until they formally remove her, moaning on twitter or to the press means nothing.
    Merely repeating the lines which were roundly derided in the Commons. No new ideas or arguments. That is what.
    That's an argument she is crap, and doesn't have a way out of it, it does not argue that she is mentally delusional. People are suggesting she has serious mental deficiencies just because she is being foolishly stubborn. I'm sorry, I'm not generally precious about language, but I find jumping to mental health accusations because she is being stubborn very disquieting.
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    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:


    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    9m9 minutes ago

    New @skydata poll:
    Of the three Brexit outcomes Theresa May says are available, would you prefer a) her deal, b) no deal or c) no Brexit?
    No Brexit 54%
    No deal 32%
    Her deal 14%

    Confirmation No Deal kills Brexit, less than a third back it. Even No Deal plus Deal only gets to 46% though and Remain still wins
    I would personally vote for Her deal first then Remain over No Deal
    And me
    Are remainers moving their position from Remain to a May's deal?
  • Options
    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Gove expected to resign tonight

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes
This discussion has been closed.