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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If TMay survives a confidence vote she’d be immune from anothe

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    TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    So I have been doing more productive things in the last 2.5 hours, principally enjoying the pub. What have I missed?

    Gove doesn't seem to have resigned yet, nor does Mordaunt. Has anyone else gone since the press conference?

    I presume we haven't quite got to 48 letters yet, remarkably enough.

    Has anyone worked out what May thought she was doing at the press conference?

    Seems pretty straightforward to me. It had been a chaotic day with plenty of resignations, even speculation that she would resign then and there or call for a GE. She held it to publicly reiterate that she is sticking to her position, in effect telling her opponents they have to actually take her down, not threaten to do it and expect her to fold.
    I think she was just 24 hours late for the press conference she had planned to give yesterday (and I don't think she bothered to change the text in between).
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    PJW's latest video:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=uF50ZfNajHA
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    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    edited November 2018
    Just a reminder BBC2 now programme on why BoJo is the best Foreign Secretary since Robin Cook.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    GIN1138 said:

    DavidL said:

    So I have been doing more productive things in the last 2.5 hours, principally enjoying the pub. What have I missed?

    Gove doesn't seem to have resigned yet, nor does Mordaunt. Has anyone else gone since the press conference?

    I presume we haven't quite got to 48 letters yet, remarkably enough.

    Has anyone worked out what May thought she was doing at the press conference?

    We don't know where Gove is. Nobody knows where Gove is and Gove doesn't know where Gove is...
    Sleepy little harbour like Dover perhaps?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,189

    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I think he's waiting to see which way the win is blowing - He'll go in the end.

    Ultimately I don't think this will even go to 28 letters/VONC. I think the Cabinet will force her to resign in the end....

    Hunt and Javid are key. If either of them resign she's done.
    And yet...

    7:25pm, and apparently still not 48 letters, never mind a head of steam for a full VoNC.

    perhaps OGH's continual cry that the ERG are all piss and wind is looking correct tonight?

    That's what I say. This won't get to VONC/28 letters. The Cabinet will step in after Gove and Hunt and/or/Javid resign.
    OK. So May goes, and then what?
    You tell me... :D
    I'd like the ERG to tell us. It's them who are trying to get rid of her. So what's their plan if they succeed?
    I thought the ERG wanted a No Deal Brexit?
    So how are they going to get that one through the HoC?
    By voting down the only deal on offer, and not reversing A50, we leave with No Deal by default.
    I don't really think the 500+ MPs who see No Deal as a disaster for the country would allow that to happen.
    That's what they claim to think, but if that were true they would not risk no deal so much at all, and they are. Their actions speak louder than words. I do think something would be organised to avoid no deal, but they are clearly prioritising other things - remain, a better deal, a GE - which increases the risk of no deal.
    The point is that the change from PM BINO May to PM No Deal Raab would change the dynamic completely - and not just in the HoC, but in the country too.
    You mean the Raab who did not have a clue during the negotiations? The Raab who polling today shows is the last person British voters want negotiating Brexit, behind Boris, Mogg and even Corbyn while May is top?

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1063105263153172483?s=20
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    solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    Floater said:

    GIN1138 said:

    DavidL said:

    So I have been doing more productive things in the last 2.5 hours, principally enjoying the pub. What have I missed?

    Gove doesn't seem to have resigned yet, nor does Mordaunt. Has anyone else gone since the press conference?

    I presume we haven't quite got to 48 letters yet, remarkably enough.

    Has anyone worked out what May thought she was doing at the press conference?

    We don't know where Gove is. Nobody knows where Gove is and Gove doesn't know where Gove is...
    Sleepy little harbour like Dover perhaps?
    Headed north to Cove?
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,021
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I think he's waiting to see which way the win is blowing - He'll go in the end.

    Ultimately I don't think this will even go to 28 letters/VONC. I think the Cabinet will force her to resign in the end....

    Hunt and Javid are key. If either of them resign she's done.
    And yet...

    7:25pm, and apparently still not 48 letters, never mind a head of steam for a full VoNC.

    perhaps OGH's continual cry that the ERG are all piss and wind is looking correct tonight?

    That's what I say. This won't get to VONC/28 letters. The Cabinet will step in after Gove and Hunt and/or/Javid resign.
    OK. So May goes, and then what?
    You tell me... :D
    I'd like the ERG to tell us. It's them who are trying to get rid of her. So what's their plan if they succeed?
    I thought the ERG wanted a No Deal Brexit?
    So how are they going to get that one through the HoC?
    By voting down the only deal on offer, and not reversing A50, we leave with No Deal by default.
    I don't really think the 500+ MPs who see No Deal as a disaster for the country would allow that to happen.
    That's what they claim to think, but if that were true they would not risk no deal so much at all, and they are. Their actions speak louder than words. I do think something would be organised to avoid no deal, but they are clearly prioritising other things - remain, a better deal, a GE - which increases the risk of no deal.
    The point is that the change from PM BINO May to PM No Deal Raab would change the dynamic completely - and not just in the HoC, but in the country too.
    You mean the Raab who did not have a clue during the negotiations? The Raab who polling today shows is the last person British voters want negotiating Brexit, behind Boris, Mogg and even Corbyn while May is top?

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1063105263153172483?s=20
    I think you need to look at the preceding posts to which I was responding.
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    The letters thing is amazing, despite apparently being in the 40's weeks ago and everyone and their dog tweeting their letter today apparently we still don't have 48? Are they being mysteriously "misplaced" after submission?

    Graham Brady is Uncle Vernon?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SS5n7Ur5_U8
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,811
    DavidL said:

    So I have been doing more productive things in the last 2.5 hours, principally enjoying the pub. What have I missed?

    Gove doesn't seem to have resigned yet, nor does Mordaunt. Has anyone else gone since the press conference?

    I presume we haven't quite got to 48 letters yet, remarkably enough.

    Has anyone worked out what May thought she was doing at the press conference?

    How quickly does the consigliere have to announce the dispatch after receiving the magic number of letters. Is he allowed to sit on it for a number of days?
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited November 2018

    Bloody good question of the day award...

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1063163059127152644

    Theresa May was probably saved by there being two separate movements against her, causing would-be letter-writers to hold off until they saw if the ministerial resignations had done the trick. And now, if there are only 30 letters, why should Sir Bufton Tufton endanger his peerage by making it 31?
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,930
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I think he's waiting to see which way the win is blowing - He'll go in the end.

    Ultimately I don't think this will even go to 28 letters/VONC. I think the Cabinet will force her to resign in the end....

    Hunt and Javid are key. If either of them resign she's done.
    And yet...

    7:25pm, and apparently still not 48 letters, never mind a head of steam for a full VoNC.

    perhaps OGH's continual cry that the ERG are all piss and wind is looking correct tonight?

    That's what I say. This won't get to VONC/28 letters. The Cabinet will step in after Gove and Hunt and/or/Javid resign.
    OK. So May goes, and then what?
    You tell me... :D
    I'd like the ERG to tell us. It's them who are trying to get rid of her. So what's their plan if they succeed?
    I thought the ERG wanted a No Deal Brexit?
    So how are they going to get that one through the HoC?
    By voting down the only deal on offer, and not reversing A50, we leave with No Deal by default.
    I don't really think the 500+ MPs who see No Deal as a disaster for the country would allow that to happen.
    That's what they claim to think, but if that were true they would not risk no deal so much at all, and they are. Their actions speak louder than words. I do think something would be organised to avoid no deal, but they are clearly prioritising other things - remain, a better deal, a GE - which increases the risk of no deal.
    The point is that the change from PM BINO May to PM No Deal Raab would change the dynamic completely - and not just in the HoC, but in the country too.
    You mean the Raab who did not have a clue during the negotiations? The Raab who polling today shows is the last person British voters want negotiating Brexit, behind Boris, Mogg and even Corbyn while May is top?

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1063105263153172483?s=20

    All well for Con tonight HYUFD? :D
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    Does Bercow get a vote if TM faces a vnoc
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,189
    edited November 2018
    Sky News has Remain getting 50% support or more compared to No Brexit or May's Deal with every age group and every UK region bar over 55s and those living in the Midlands and Wales (where it still has a plurality, though 40% of over 55s back No Deal). The Midlands and Wales, the South and over 55s also give the strongest backing to May's Deal


    https://interactive.news.sky.com/BREXIT1_151118.pdf
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Does Bercow get a vote if TM faces a vnoc

    Good question. Probably not as he doesn't take the whip. The Tory Deputy Speakers do though, I think, so they should.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,079

    Bloody good question of the day award...

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1063163059127152644

    Theresa May was probably saved by there being two separate movements against her, causing would-be letter-writers to hold off until they saw if the ministerial resignations had done the trick. And now, if there are only 30 letters, why should Sir Bufton Tufton endanger his peerage by making it 31?
    We clearly have no idea if it is 30, 39 or 47.5, but I'm guessing a few are waiting until tomorrow to either think on it or at least look like they are thinking on it.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,477
    edited November 2018

    Does Bercow get a vote if TM faces a vnoc

    He isn't a Conservative MP, so no.

    Edit - oh, of the full house? Only if it's a tie, in which he case he votes for the government.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,930
    edited November 2018
    Gove will quit but he'll do it at a time that produces maximum carnage... He's a political troll. :D
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,079
    ydoethur said:

    Does Bercow get a vote if TM faces a vnoc

    He isn't a Conservative MP, so no.

    Edit - oh, of the full house? Only if it's a tie, in which he case he votes for the government.
    Do you believe Bercow would feel bound by convention?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,010

    She's going over the heads of Parliament and to the people:


    https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1063162182416977921

    Hello, this is Jacob on line one.
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    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited November 2018
    Considering Brexit has been one of the Conservatives biggest advantages* that poll with Corbyn just 6% behind May and ahead of the other Tories on negotiating it is actually quite good, from a progress perspective anyway.

    *In terms of polling questions regarding leading Brexit negotiations.

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    HYUFD said:

    Sky News has Remain getting 50% support or more compared to No Brexit or May's Deal with every age group and every UK region bar over 55s and those living in the Midlands and Wales (where it still has a plurality, though 40% of over 50s back No Deal)

    https://interactive.news.sky.com/BREXIT1_151118.pdf

    Really not surprising. ERG have put me in remain if TM deal falls
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,477
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Does Bercow get a vote if TM faces a vnoc

    He isn't a Conservative MP, so no.

    Edit - oh, of the full house? Only if it's a tie, in which he case he votes for the government.
    Do you believe Bercow would feel bound by convention?
    In this case yes.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,930
    edited November 2018

    HYUFD said:

    Sky News has Remain getting 50% support or more compared to No Brexit or May's Deal with every age group and every UK region bar over 55s and those living in the Midlands and Wales (where it still has a plurality, though 40% of over 50s back No Deal)

    https://interactive.news.sky.com/BREXIT1_151118.pdf

    Really not surprising. ERG have put me in remain if TM deal falls
    Give over Big G. You've been remain all the way along. :D
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    asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    If they don't get to 48 letters after this, is there any point to the ERG at all ?

    Doubtless there's a conspiracy theory starting that letters are in but it's being suppressed
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    Andrew said:

    DavidL said:


    I presume we haven't quite got to 48 letters yet, remarkably enough.

    We seem to have gone backwards, apparently the current estimate is the number of letters is "in the 30s".
    1930s, presumably? :lol:
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    Nearly 9pm, and Rory isn't in the Cabinet.

    What's wrong with these people???

    You wonder what he has to do to get a top job. It is really quite odd. He appears well liked, he has been loyal to the government positions, but the call never comes.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    HYUFD said:

    Sky News has Remain getting 50% support or more compared to No Brexit or May's Deal with every age group and every UK region bar over 55s and those living in the Midlands and Wales (where it still has a plurality, though 40% of over 55s back No Deal). The Midlands and Wales, the South and over 55s also give the strongest backing to May's Deal


    https://interactive.news.sky.com/BREXIT1_151118.pdf

    How can you have a nationally representative sample of sky customers?

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    felix said:

    She's going over the heads of Parliament and to the people:


    https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1063162182416977921

    You simply have to admire her guts and tenacity.
    She’ll be shit at that, and give stock answers to every question that will wind people up, but at least she gets she has to engage and has worked out she needs the balls to try.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,477

    If they don't get to 48 letters after this, is there any point to the ERG at all ?

    No, and there never was.
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    In addition to silence from Javid....I tell you who we haven’t heard a peep from. Nige. Normally anything EU related and he appears infront of the camera complete with pint and ciggie to tell the nation how bad the EU is.
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    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    edited November 2018

    In addition to silence from Javid....I tell you who we haven’t heard a peep from. Nige. Normally anything EU related and he appears infront of the camera complete with pint and ciggie to tell the nation how bad the EU is.

    The main silences are Hammond and Clark. TM would have thought they would have been straight out to support her.
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    She's going over the heads of Parliament and to the people:

    twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1063162182416977921

    I am reminded of Maggie. She did a public "consultation" and got verbally handbagged by an angry woman. It got replayed for years.

    She also lost the confidence of her party and then held a Presser to say she would go on and on (echoes of today's 5pm Presser). She was gone shortly after.

    I think I am having Deja Vu. The Iron Lady and Tin-eared Tessie.... what a pair!
    That was one incident.

    She usually made mincemeat of interviewers and gave impressive (and proper) answers to questions.
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    I am not convinced the ERG do much research.
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    shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672

    In addition to silence from Javid....I tell you who we haven’t heard a peep from. Nige. Normally anything EU related and he appears infront of the camera complete with pint and ciggie to tell the nation how bad the EU is.

    Sky had him on for 5m after MrsMay declared 'nothing has changed' @1745.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    In addition to silence from Javid....I tell you who we haven’t heard a peep from. Nige. Normally anything EU related and he appears infront of the camera complete with pint and ciggie to tell the nation how bad the EU is.

    The main silences are Hammond and Clarke. TM would have thought they would have been straight out to support her.
    Clarke has publically voiced support for the deal.
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    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sky News has Remain getting 50% support or more compared to No Brexit or May's Deal with every age group and every UK region bar over 55s and those living in the Midlands and Wales (where it still has a plurality, though 40% of over 50s back No Deal)

    https://interactive.news.sky.com/BREXIT1_151118.pdf

    Really not surprising. ERG have put me in remain if TM deal falls
    Give over Big G. You've been remain all the way along. :D
    I have absolutely not been remain. You either have not followed by posts over the years or you are just insulting me

    I have fought for TM deal all along, loyally and consistently, but I turned against ERG when Boris told Airbus to FO and ERG said they are willing to sacrifice JIT manufacturing, which of course they do not understand, and they couldnt care less attitude to the union.

    You do not seem to realise how much damage ERG are doing to their cause

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,189

    Just a reminder BBC2 now programme on why BoJo is the best Foreign Secretary since Robin Cook.

    'Inside the Foreign Office' interesting portrayal of diplomats and BoJo
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    May has ended an impossible day well and has earned it. Her enemies look foolish.
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    In addition to silence from Javid....I tell you who we haven’t heard a peep from. Nige. Normally anything EU related and he appears infront of the camera complete with pint and ciggie to tell the nation how bad the EU is.

    He was full on this afternoon saying he will have to return to fight for his brexit
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    George weah’s son looks a bit tasty in the footy.
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    shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    edited November 2018

    felix said:

    She's going over the heads of Parliament and to the people:


    https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1063162182416977921

    You simply have to admire her guts and tenacity.
    She’ll be shit at that, and give stock answers to every question that will wind people up, but at least she gets she has to engage and has worked out she needs the balls to try.
    Can't wait for her answer to Ferrari's "Would you vote for Brexit now Primeminister".


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    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Calling @TSE

    If Gove resigns, can I finally compare him to Mark Reckless?

    For his betrayal of David Cameron I compared to Gove to Mark Reckless.
    So I can say 'traitorous pig dog?'
    If you've seen Bohemian Rhapsody, my current favourite insult is 'treacherous pissflap'.
    We Will Rock You was released in 1980, of course :lol:
    Freddie was diagnosed with HIV BEFORE Live Aid, of course :lol:
    Queen hadn't recorded together for YEARS before Live Aid, of course :)
    I sometimes wonder if your account is operated by some sort of Dadaist art collective
    What's a Dadaist?
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    In addition to silence from Javid....I tell you who we haven’t heard a peep from. Nige. Normally anything EU related and he appears infront of the camera complete with pint and ciggie to tell the nation how bad the EU is.

    He was full on this afternoon saying he will have to return to fight for his brexit
    Must have missed it.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,178
    While MPs drank red and white wine at the close of Cabinet, Mr Raab took Mr Smith to one side in a side room and announced his intention to go. He agreed to hold off resigning until yesterday morning to avoid overshadowing the Prime Minister's announcement.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/11/15/reconstruction-michael-gove-has-left-theresa-mays-future-hands/

    p.s. "yesterday" is today
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    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    alex. said:

    In addition to silence from Javid....I tell you who we haven’t heard a peep from. Nige. Normally anything EU related and he appears infront of the camera complete with pint and ciggie to tell the nation how bad the EU is.

    The main silences are Hammond and Clarke. TM would have thought they would have been straight out to support her.
    Clarke has publically voiced support for the deal.
    You read too quick I meant Greg not Ken, but got the e on the end wrong.
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    I am not convinced the ERG do much research.

    They only talk to each other and that is gibberish
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    Idiot on the pitch at the footy....sigh....
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,079

    I am not convinced the ERG do much research.

    They only talk to each other and that is gibberish
    No, that's PB :)
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    In addition to silence from Javid....I tell you who we haven’t heard a peep from. Nige. Normally anything EU related and he appears infront of the camera complete with pint and ciggie to tell the nation how bad the EU is.

    The main silences are Hammond and Clark. TM would have thought they would have been straight out to support her.
    They have been obtaining business approval with business leaders coming out openly in suppott
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    So my theory is that every Conservative MP has now handed in a no confidence letter and Brady simply can't count.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    One thing I suppose problematic Brexit could do (beyond the short term) is create expansion at most British ports. I guess the reason Dover is so critical these days is that it is the shortest route to the continent, and the lack of Trade barriers means that there is little reason for most not to use it. I presume that most companies no deal plans involve switching to other less used ports and allowing the load to be shared more evenly. One reason why some of the direst warnings are possibly overblown. Just because Dover is currently the port of choice, doesn’t mean it is the only port available.
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    kle4 said:

    I am not convinced the ERG do much research.

    They only talk to each other and that is gibberish
    No, that's PB :)
    Despite being led by ultimate posho JRM, I still think we talk more about first class flights, restaurants and wines here on PB.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,477
    geoffw said:

    While MPs drank red and white wine at the close of Cabinet, Mr Raab took Mr Smith to one side in a side room and announced his intention to go. He agreed to hold off resigning until yesterday morning to avoid overshadowing the Prime Minister's announcement.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/11/15/reconstruction-michael-gove-has-left-theresa-mays-future-hands/

    p.s. "yesterday" is today

    Chief Whip seems dazzlingly effective, I must say. He keeps getting damaging resignations done in such a way that they irretrievably damage the outgoing ministers.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,477

    kle4 said:

    I am not convinced the ERG do much research.

    They only talk to each other and that is gibberish
    No, that's PB :)
    Despite being led by ultimate posho JRM, I still think we talk more about first class flights, restaurants and wines here on PB.
    I'm fairly sure Mike Smithson is not Jacob Rees Mogg.

    If he is, he hides it awfully well.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    Idiot on the pitch at the footy....sigh....

    Rooney?

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    kle4 said:

    I am not convinced the ERG do much research.

    They only talk to each other and that is gibberish
    No, that's PB :)
    I tempted to say both but PB is amazing, they are not
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited November 2018

    alex. said:

    In addition to silence from Javid....I tell you who we haven’t heard a peep from. Nige. Normally anything EU related and he appears infront of the camera complete with pint and ciggie to tell the nation how bad the EU is.

    The main silences are Hammond and Clarke. TM would have thought they would have been straight out to support her.
    Clarke has publically voiced support for the deal.
    You read too quick I meant Greg not Ken, but got the e on the end wrong.
    That’s who I assumed you meant. If Ken’s voiced his support that’s a bit of a coup!

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    alex. said:

    Idiot on the pitch at the footy....sigh....

    Rooney?

    Was talking about some twat out the crowd but I can see how my description could be confused with baldy shrek.
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    nielhnielh Posts: 1,307


    stodge said:

    LibDem MP for Eastbourne Stephen Lloyd has said he will back Theresa May’s abysmal Brexit ‘deal‘, which will remove the UK from the EU with none of the advantages of leaving while retaining almost all of the obligations of membership.

    Stephen, like so many others it seems, has been taken in by the apocalyptic warnings of Carney and others but ultimately it's the Prime Minister's last card. She, who got to the top job because of the failure of one Project Fear, may yet survive because of the success of another.
    Not a good look for Vince he only has 11 MPs to keep on track

    Peoples vote is LD policy isn't it??
    Eastbourne voted leave.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,079
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    I am not convinced the ERG do much research.

    They only talk to each other and that is gibberish
    No, that's PB :)
    Despite being led by ultimate posho JRM, I still think we talk more about first class flights, restaurants and wines here on PB.
    I'm fairly sure Mike Smithson is not Jacob Rees Mogg.

    If he is, he hides it awfully well.
    On the other hand TSE is clearly David Cameron.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,010
    Alistair said:

    So my theory is that every Conservative MP has now handed in a no confidence letter and Brady simply can't count.

    He is May's MVP, telling you :_)
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Alistair said:

    So my theory is that every Conservative MP has now handed in a no confidence letter and Brady simply can't count.

    Perhaps it’s been discovered that the rules require 48 and only 48, and they’ve got too many! ;)
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,477
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    I am not convinced the ERG do much research.

    They only talk to each other and that is gibberish
    No, that's PB :)
    Despite being led by ultimate posho JRM, I still think we talk more about first class flights, restaurants and wines here on PB.
    I'm fairly sure Mike Smithson is not Jacob Rees Mogg.

    If he is, he hides it awfully well.
    On the other hand TSE is clearly David Cameron.
    Don't be silly. A good Muslim boy wouldn't do that to a pig.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,432
    Andrew said:

    DavidL said:


    I presume we haven't quite got to 48 letters yet, remarkably enough.

    We seem to have gone backwards, apparently the current estimate is the number of letters is "in the 30s".
    The ERG is a joke where everyone goes around talking to themselves and congratulating themselves on being so clever. Deselection is the only way forward.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,300
    edited November 2018
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    I am not convinced the ERG do much research.

    They only talk to each other and that is gibberish
    No, that's PB :)
    Despite being led by ultimate posho JRM, I still think we talk more about first class flights, restaurants and wines here on PB.
    I'm fairly sure Mike Smithson is not Jacob Rees Mogg.

    If he is, he hides it awfully well.
    On the other hand TSE is clearly David Cameron.
    Don't be silly. A good Muslim boy wouldn't do that to a pig.
    I was going to say I can’t see the Aston ham united fan at a steps / venga boys concert....
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,874
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    I am not convinced the ERG do much research.

    They only talk to each other and that is gibberish
    No, that's PB :)
    Despite being led by ultimate posho JRM, I still think we talk more about first class flights, restaurants and wines here on PB.
    I'm fairly sure Mike Smithson is not Jacob Rees Mogg.

    If he is, he hides it awfully well.
    On the other hand TSE is clearly David Cameron.
    Don't be silly. A good Muslim boy wouldn't do that to a pig.
    He doesn't have to eat it afterwards!
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    USA soccer team is really rather crap.
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    Reflecting on JRM ridiculous cavorting today I wonder just how many enemies ERG have created in the conservative mps. It surely has been a total misjudgement
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,432

    Nearly 9pm, and Rory isn't in the Cabinet.

    What's wrong with these people???

    He's been the unofficial Brexit Secretary for the last 2 days, practically the only one willing to speak up for May's deal other than May herself.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,874
    edited November 2018
    nielh said:


    stodge said:

    LibDem MP for Eastbourne Stephen Lloyd has said he will back Theresa May’s abysmal Brexit ‘deal‘, which will remove the UK from the EU with none of the advantages of leaving while retaining almost all of the obligations of membership.

    Stephen, like so many others it seems, has been taken in by the apocalyptic warnings of Carney and others but ultimately it's the Prime Minister's last card. She, who got to the top job because of the failure of one Project Fear, may yet survive because of the success of another.
    Not a good look for Vince he only has 11 MPs to keep on track

    Peoples vote is LD policy isn't it??
    Eastbourne voted leave.
    I don't think Lamb would vote against the deal either.
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    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    nielh said:


    stodge said:

    LibDem MP for Eastbourne Stephen Lloyd has said he will back Theresa May’s abysmal Brexit ‘deal‘, which will remove the UK from the EU with none of the advantages of leaving while retaining almost all of the obligations of membership.

    Stephen, like so many others it seems, has been taken in by the apocalyptic warnings of Carney and others but ultimately it's the Prime Minister's last card. She, who got to the top job because of the failure of one Project Fear, may yet survive because of the success of another.
    Not a good look for Vince he only has 11 MPs to keep on track

    Peoples vote is LD policy isn't it??
    Eastbourne voted leave.
    It did, but I think it can be flipped. https://www.eastbourneherald.co.uk/news/eastbourne-councillors-vote-to-back-calls-for-a-brexit-people-s-vote-1-8707321
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    The letters thing is amazing, despite apparently being in the 40's weeks ago and everyone and their dog tweeting their letter today apparently we still don't have 48? Are they being mysteriously "misplaced" after submission?

    If they had a public running count of the number of letters, or a register of who had sent letters in, then it would have stopped all the pointless wolf-crying that has gone on for months.

    Not surprising that the Brexiters who have been doing it are a mix of fantasists and liars, but it might be a good idea to put a stop to it.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,432
    edited November 2018

    Idiot on the pitch at the footy....sigh....

    Edit. Way too slow.
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    shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    edited November 2018

    Reflecting on JRM ridiculous cavorting today I wonder just how many enemies ERG have created in the conservative mps. It surely has been a total misjudgement

    Have you been counting the cabinet members supporting your Primeminister today?
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    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    alex. said:

    Idiot on the pitch at the footy....sigh....

    Rooney?

    Loving seeing Rooney get one last game, screw the haters ;)
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    alex. said:

    Alistair said:

    So my theory is that every Conservative MP has now handed in a no confidence letter and Brady simply can't count.

    Perhaps it’s been discovered that the rules require 48 and only 48, and they’ve got too many! ;)
    Have they specified the number base? If it is hexadecimal (base 16) that would be 72 decimal.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,874
    Foxy said:

    nielh said:


    stodge said:

    LibDem MP for Eastbourne Stephen Lloyd has said he will back Theresa May’s abysmal Brexit ‘deal‘, which will remove the UK from the EU with none of the advantages of leaving while retaining almost all of the obligations of membership.

    Stephen, like so many others it seems, has been taken in by the apocalyptic warnings of Carney and others but ultimately it's the Prime Minister's last card. She, who got to the top job because of the failure of one Project Fear, may yet survive because of the success of another.
    Not a good look for Vince he only has 11 MPs to keep on track

    Peoples vote is LD policy isn't it??
    Eastbourne voted leave.
    I don't think Lamb would vote against the deal either.
    Or maybe he would

    https://twitter.com/normanlamb/status/1063161053532577792?s=19
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    shiney2 said:

    Reflecting on JRM ridiculous cavorting today I wonder just how many enemies ERG have created in the conservative mps. It surely has been a total misjudgement

    Have you been counting the cabinet members supporting your Primeminister today?
    Actually McVey is no loss, Raab seems to have followed the ERG policy of not having a clue, and others so be it

    TM has majority support within her mps and even after all this still tops the poll on who the Country wants as PM
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,010

    alex. said:

    Alistair said:

    So my theory is that every Conservative MP has now handed in a no confidence letter and Brady simply can't count.

    Perhaps it’s been discovered that the rules require 48 and only 48, and they’ve got too many! ;)
    Have they specified the number base? If it is hexadecimal (base 16) that would be 72 decimal.
    Jacob really thought he had the XLVIII letter in.
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    shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672

    shiney2 said:

    Reflecting on JRM ridiculous cavorting today I wonder just how many enemies ERG have created in the conservative mps. It surely has been a total misjudgement

    Have you been counting the cabinet members supporting your Primeminister today?
    Actually McVey is no loss, Raab seems to have followed the ERG policy of not having a clue, and others so be it

    TM has majority support within her mps and even after all this still tops the poll on who the Country wants as PM
    So: nobody from the cabinet.

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    USA soccer team is really rather crap.

    I remember when they got to the World Cup semi-finals in 2002 but they seem to have disappointed since then.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,874

    shiney2 said:

    Reflecting on JRM ridiculous cavorting today I wonder just how many enemies ERG have created in the conservative mps. It surely has been a total misjudgement

    Have you been counting the cabinet members supporting your Primeminister today?
    Actually McVey is no loss, Raab seems to have followed the ERG policy of not having a clue, and others so be it

    TM has majority support within her mps and even after all this still tops the poll on who the Country wants as PM
    if there is a VONC, she is likely to win, so stays on, yet her main policy may collapse.

    She may be forced to go down with the ship.
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    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Subtle shift in Corbyn's position spotted by the Gusardian:



    "... If we cannot get a general election, in line with our conference policy, we will support all options remaining on the table, including campaigning for a public vote."

    [Guardian comment] So, Corbyn is being explicit with members: He will back another referendum if he cannot force a general election.

    Subtle shift in Corbyn's position spotted by the Gusardian:



    "... If we cannot get a general election, in line with our conference policy, we will support all options remaining on the table, including campaigning for a public vote."

    [Guardian comment] So, Corbyn is being explicit with members: He will back another referendum if he cannot force a general election.

    Was he influenced by all the protestors making themselves heard today? His philosophy has always been that what happens outside parliament is as important as what goes on inside it.
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    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited November 2018

    alex. said:

    Alistair said:

    So my theory is that every Conservative MP has now handed in a no confidence letter and Brady simply can't count.

    Perhaps it’s been discovered that the rules require 48 and only 48, and they’ve got too many! ;)
    Have they specified the number base? If it is hexadecimal (base 16) that would be 72 decimal.
    Brady has started questioning what actually constitutes a letter, no stamp, no address, it doesn't begin with dear sir or to whom it may concern...

    Maybe he is just classing half as them as misdelivered threats from the ERG.
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    shiney2 said:

    shiney2 said:

    Reflecting on JRM ridiculous cavorting today I wonder just how many enemies ERG have created in the conservative mps. It surely has been a total misjudgement

    Have you been counting the cabinet members supporting your Primeminister today?
    Actually McVey is no loss, Raab seems to have followed the ERG policy of not having a clue, and others so be it

    TM has majority support within her mps and even after all this still tops the poll on who the Country wants as PM
    So: nobody from the cabinet.

    Of course the majority of the cabinet
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,051
    On the greater substance of today's events, it looks like Mrs May has been filled by the odd injection of botox....

    At least she hasn't gone the whole hog and had her gnashers whitened.....
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    alex. said:

    Idiot on the pitch at the footy....sigh....

    Rooney?

    Was talking about some twat out the crowd but I can see how my description could be confused with baldy shrek.
    Rooney getting a final game and being treated like we owe him something has been the final nail in the coffin for me and the national team. I'm done with them.
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    AndyJS said:

    USA soccer team is really rather crap.

    I remember when they got to the World Cup semi-finals in 2002 but they seem to have disappointed since then.
    They have definitely gone backwards, failing to qualify for the last World Cup by not being able to get a draw with the mighty Panama.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,064
    DavidL said:

    Idiot on the pitch at the footy....sigh....

    Rooney?
    Let's be honest he's probably not the only one.

    Given the current political turmoil I've decided instead to head to the Bank of England website and nominate John Locke for the £50 note. Not necessarily the best idea since Locke surely belongs on the £5/£10/£20 rather than the currency of choice of criminal gangs but I'm doing my bit to save western liberalism.

    It's only a thought but I can't help wondering if England's current political woes and the mainstream disregard of its greatest philosopher might have some connection.
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    shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672

    shiney2 said:

    shiney2 said:

    Reflecting on JRM ridiculous cavorting today I wonder just how many enemies ERG have created in the conservative mps. It surely has been a total misjudgement

    Have you been counting the cabinet members supporting your Primeminister today?
    Actually McVey is no loss, Raab seems to have followed the ERG policy of not having a clue, and others so be it

    TM has majority support within her mps and even after all this still tops the poll on who the Country wants as PM
    So: nobody from the cabinet.

    Of course the majority of the cabinet
    Well the 'cabinet supported' her yesterday. She said so in Downing st.

    Mysterious that NONE of them could be found on any TV channel today.

    More important things to do?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,079
    What kind of sense does that even make? Either he supports it or he doesn't. Maybe he doesn't fancy being Brexit secretary but if he supports it he stays if he doesn't he should get the hell out.
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,051

    alex. said:

    Idiot on the pitch at the footy....sigh....

    Rooney?

    Was talking about some twat out the crowd but I can see how my description could be confused with baldy shrek.
    Rooney getting a final game and being treated like we owe him something has been the final nail in the coffin for me and the national team. I'm done with them.
    Especially after that debacle we saw this summer....I mean England were minutes away from a World Cup final..what a shower
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    tyson said:

    On the greater substance of today's events, it looks like Mrs May has been filled by the odd injection of botox....

    At least she hasn't gone the whole hog and had her gnashers whitened.....

    I believe that is called doing a Cheryl Cole.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,079
    shiney2 said:

    shiney2 said:

    shiney2 said:

    Reflecting on JRM ridiculous cavorting today I wonder just how many enemies ERG have created in the conservative mps. It surely has been a total misjudgement

    Have you been counting the cabinet members supporting your Primeminister today?
    Actually McVey is no loss, Raab seems to have followed the ERG policy of not having a clue, and others so be it

    TM has majority support within her mps and even after all this still tops the poll on who the Country wants as PM
    So: nobody from the cabinet.

    Of course the majority of the cabinet
    Well the 'cabinet supported' her yesterday. She said so in Downing st.

    Mysterious that NONE of them could be found on any TV channel today.

    More important things to do?
    It does seem indefensible - if they are not all quitting, why re the most senior ones not out there pushing this thing damn hard? I stand by earlier comments that the likes of Javid and Hunt are losing what respect I had for them.
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    OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469

    shiney2 said:

    Reflecting on JRM ridiculous cavorting today I wonder just how many enemies ERG have created in the conservative mps. It surely has been a total misjudgement

    Have you been counting the cabinet members supporting your Primeminister today?
    Actually McVey is no loss, Raab seems to have followed the ERG policy of not having a clue, and others so be it

    TM has majority support within her mps and even after all this still tops the poll on who the Country wants as PM
    Except TMay has lost the confidence of the MP's, not just of the Conservatives, but of the house. The Tories know that if they go down there will be a Corbyn government and that scares them silly.
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    shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    OchEye said:

    shiney2 said:

    Reflecting on JRM ridiculous cavorting today I wonder just how many enemies ERG have created in the conservative mps. It surely has been a total misjudgement

    Have you been counting the cabinet members supporting your Primeminister today?
    Actually McVey is no loss, Raab seems to have followed the ERG policy of not having a clue, and others so be it

    TM has majority support within her mps and even after all this still tops the poll on who the Country wants as PM
    Except TMay has lost the confidence of the MP's, not just of the Conservatives, but of the house. The Tories know that if they go down there will be a Corbyn government and that scares them silly.
    Just like cabinet support, MrsMay has the support of tory mps and indeed the HoC.


    Just as long as it doesn't actually come to a vote on anything important..


    Then she's toast.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,178
    The monster of Berlaymont's hatred of Britain wins through.

    Fraser:

    But the risk, here was always that the EU would take Britain’s best offer then demand more. This is precisely what has just happened. Raab discovered at the last minute that the “backstop” clause for Northern Ireland was no longer a last resort, no longer a bridge to a proper free-trade deal. It was to become the basis on which the final Brexit deal would be built. This had been sneaked into the text at the last minute – with Raab only finding about it once the deal was agreed by No 10.

    Perhaps the worst of it was the union. British negotiators picked up word that Martin Selmayr, the chief Brussels bureaucrat, had told his officials that the UK must pay a price for Brexit – and that the price is Northern Ireland. He wanted the Brexit transition deal to be written in such a way that, if the United Kingdom wanted to break free and strike a new arrangement, it would have no choice but to leave Northern Ireland behind.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/11/15/despite-revulsion-mrs-mays-deal-confident-opponents-wont-move/
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,432

    DavidL said:

    Idiot on the pitch at the footy....sigh....

    Rooney?
    Let's be honest he's probably not the only one.

    Given the current political turmoil I've decided instead to head to the Bank of England website and nominate John Locke for the £50 note. Not necessarily the best idea since Locke surely belongs on the £5/£10/£20 rather than the currency of choice of criminal gangs but I'm doing my bit to save western liberalism.

    It's only a thought but I can't help wondering if England's current political woes and the mainstream disregard of its greatest philosopher might have some connection.
    I might follow you. Better idea than most of the scientists that were being named the other day for other notes.
This discussion has been closed.