I don't get the fuss about free trade deals. We have excellent trade deals right now through the EU. We know the EU negotiators are excellent. We know ours are crap.
Are our crap negotiators going to out there and get better deals for the UK only than the EU excellent negotiators got for the EU including the UK?
No, the UK is a much smaller entity than the EU. My point with Japan and before that South Korea was that deal was already done on terms that satisfied both sides. The new trade deals post Brexit is fantasy IMO and the much vaunted New Zealand trade deal that Brexiteers always advocated is a drop in the ocean given the size of their economy and population.
Yes, only the seventh or eighth largest economy on the planet. Tiny.
Try fifth of sixth largest surely? Larger than South Korea.
South Korea is another nation that has trade deals with Europe, China, USA, Japan, Asia, Australia etc - virtually the whole world. We don't.
In theory your arguments are correct, but the start point of the UK is very different to anywhere else in the world. We start off uniquely entangled from within the EU. This is fundamentally why leaving is difficult and not pain free.
I don't get the fuss about free trade deals. We have excellent trade deals right now through the EU. We know the EU negotiators are excellent. We know ours are crap.
Are our crap negotiators going to out there and get better deals for the UK only than the EU excellent negotiators got for the EU including the UK?
No, the UK is a much smaller entity than the EU. My point with Japan and before that South Korea was that deal was already done on terms that satisfied both sides. The new trade deals post Brexit is fantasy IMO and the much vaunted New Zealand trade deal that Brexiteers always advocated is a drop in the ocean given the size of their economy and population.
Yes, only the seventh or eighth largest economy on the planet. Tiny.
Try fifth of sixth largest surely? Larger than South Korea.
South Korea is another nation that has trade deals with Europe, China, USA, Japan, Asia, Australia etc - virtually the whole world. We don't.
New Zealand is the fifth, sixth, seventh or eight biggest economy?
Make your minds up, which one are they...?
I took umbrage with Taxman's first statement, regarding the UK.
Everyone, on all sides of the house and all parts of the Brexit spectrum, has reason to be unhappy about this. Even so, there is a piquant irony in seeing committed Brexiteers complaining that if this is the deal, it’s worse than remaining a full member of the EU. Well, yes, that’s what some people suggested in the spring of 2016 too. Back then, however, life was all sunshine and roses and dreams were dreamt of gambolling with unicorns in the sweet-flowering meadows of cake-filled national liberation.
Oddly, it hasn’t quite worked out like that.
Because a Remainer usurped Brexit.
Ah the treachery myth is being created. The moron class is alive and well, I see.
How's it a myth it is there right before our eyes.
Had a Leaver been in charged and f###ed up the negotiations like Remainer May has you'd have a point.
Fantasist.
Which part is fantastical?
That Leavers could have done it differently and were proposing to do it differently?
Or that May is a Remainer?
May might be a Remainer (I think a very soft one at heart though) but she put Leavers in charge of the FCO, DExEU and International Trade. She may have given them rope, but she didn't make them hang themselves with it.
If they were in charge we wouldn't have had resignations.
That's an incredibly naive statement. As we can see on here, there are many different views amongst leavers on what they want, and some of them have some rather strong views on what leave should be.
The problem is that the various leave views are incompatible, and many leavers will have been unhappy whatever form of Brexit occurs.
Then you add in personalities such as Boris, Davis and JRM: you'd have had resignations even with a leaver in charge.
Possibly but we didn't have a leaver in charge, we had Remainer May in charge. @rpjs was pretending Davis, Johnson etc were in charge, the only person in charge was Remainer May.
I'd like to know the evidence on which you base your conclusion that Davis, Johnson etc are competent, and performed those roles well.
You cannot blame May for their incompetence.
If May was stopping them from exercising their competence, why did they stay so long?
I don't get the fuss about free trade deals. We have excellent trade deals right now through the EU. We know the EU negotiators are excellent. We know ours are crap.
Are our crap negotiators going to out there and get better deals for the UK only than the EU excellent negotiators got for the EU including the UK?
No, the UK is a much smaller entity than the EU. My point with Japan and before that South Korea was that deal was already done on terms that satisfied both sides. The new trade deals post Brexit is fantasy IMO and the much vaunted New Zealand trade deal that Brexiteers always advocated is a drop in the ocean given the size of their economy and population.
Yes, only the seventh or eighth largest economy on the planet. Tiny.
Try fifth of sixth largest surely? Larger than South Korea.
South Korea is another nation that has trade deals with Europe, China, USA, Japan, Asia, Australia etc - virtually the whole world. We don't.
In theory your arguments are correct, but the start point of the UK is very different to anywhere else in the world. We start off uniquely entangled from within the EU. This is fundamentally why leaving is difficult and not pain free.
While that is true, it doesn't mean the UK is somehow incapable of reaching similar arrangements.
Plus I'm bloody loving all these PB Brexiters coming on here wailing and gnashing their teeth at the sheer clusterfuckedness of it all.
They voted chuffing leave and then have the nerve to bemoan how badly it is all going. ..
Especially since it's going quite well. If the reports are to be believed, they'll have got almost exactly what they campaigned for, and with little economic damage. It really is a question of 'won't take Yes for an answer'.
I don't get the fuss about free trade deals. We have excellent trade deals right now through the EU. We know the EU negotiators are excellent. We know ours are crap.
Are our crap negotiators going to out there and get better deals for the UK only than the EU excellent negotiators got for the EU including the UK?
No, the UK is a much smaller entity than the EU. My point with Japan and before that South Korea was that deal was already done on terms that satisfied both sides. The new trade deals post Brexit is fantasy IMO and the much vaunted New Zealand trade deal that Brexiteers always advocated is a drop in the ocean given the size of their economy and population.
Yes, only the seventh or eighth largest economy on the planet. Tiny.
Try fifth of sixth largest surely? Larger than South Korea.
South Korea is another nation that has trade deals with Europe, China, USA, Japan, Asia, Australia etc - virtually the whole world. We don't.
In theory your arguments are correct, but the start point of the UK is very different to anywhere else in the world. We start off uniquely entangled from within the EU. This is fundamentally why leaving is difficult and not pain free.
While that is true, it doesn't mean the UK is somehow incapable of reaching similar arrangements.
I don't get the fuss about free trade deals. We have excellent trade deals right now through the EU. We know the EU negotiators are excellent. We know ours are crap.
Are our crap negotiators going to out there and get better deals for the UK only than the EU excellent negotiators got for the EU including the UK?
No, the UK is a much smaller entity than the EU. My point with Japan and before that South Korea was that deal was already done on terms that satisfied both sides. The new trade deals post Brexit is fantasy IMO and the much vaunted New Zealand trade deal that Brexiteers always advocated is a drop in the ocean given the size of their economy and population.
Yes, only the seventh or eighth largest economy on the planet. Tiny.
Try fifth of sixth largest surely? Larger than South Korea.
South Korea is another nation that has trade deals with Europe, China, USA, Japan, Asia, Australia etc - virtually the whole world. We don't.
In theory your arguments are correct, but the start point of the UK is very different to anywhere else in the world. We start off uniquely entangled from within the EU. This is fundamentally why leaving is difficult and not pain free.
While that is true, it doesn't mean the UK is somehow incapable of reaching similar arrangements.
Every journey begins with a small step. If leavers blow this step of actually leaving the EU we'll be tied in forever.
Also heard today that CCHQ fear if an election were to come about the Tories could go down to as low as 4 seats in London
I've got a feeling we'll see a SLAB-type fate awaiting whatever ruins of the Conservative Party is left from this cluster **** across England whenever the next election is held...
Where do all the Tory voters go?
They sit on their hands and stay at home. While Labour voters are VERY motivated to turn out for Jezza as always...
That's what happened in 1997. It's a myth that there was a gigantic swing to us. What principally happened was that a lot of Tories said "enough already" after 18 years and stayed at home. Much the same happened in reverse in 2010.
I don't get the fuss about free trade deals. We have excellent trade deals right now through the EU. We know the EU negotiators are excellent. We know ours are crap.
Are our crap negotiators going to out there and get better deals for the UK only than the EU excellent negotiators got for the EU including the UK?
No, the UK is a much smaller entity than the EU. My point with Japan and before that South Korea was that deal was already done on terms that satisfied both sides. The new trade deals post Brexit is fantasy IMO and the much vaunted New Zealand trade deal that Brexiteers always advocated is a drop in the ocean given the size of their economy and population.
Yes, only the seventh or eighth largest economy on the planet. Tiny.
Try fifth of sixth largest surely? Larger than South Korea.
South Korea is another nation that has trade deals with Europe, China, USA, Japan, Asia, Australia etc - virtually the whole world. We don't.
In theory your arguments are correct, but the start point of the UK is very different to anywhere else in the world. We start off uniquely entangled from within the EU. This is fundamentally why leaving is difficult and not pain free.
While that is true, it doesn't mean the UK is somehow incapable of reaching similar arrangements.
Every journey begins with a small step. If leavers blow this step of actually leaving the EU we'll be tied in forever.
Precisely.
And for your earlier point, I find it fascinating that the EU concede a technological solution is fine for the Irish Sea but not for the land border. Hopefully their position will evolve further...
The slightly grim reality is that this is no deal at all. There are about 495 pages of detail about us leaving the EU, most of which will involve us agreeing to pay for various things, and then a heads of agreement in a sort of skeletal outline about what the future relationship will be. In fact it would be better describing this as an agreement to agree which, as any lawyer knows, is not normally binding but in this case it might be because of the backstop.
If May can get this agreement through the Commons (and I still think she will) we are committed to several more years of arguing about what our relationship with the EU is going to be. It is not a cheering thought and means the uncertainty which has deferred investment into the UK economy may continue.
OTOH as a soft leaver I am quite content with "a" customs union and the minimum interference with patterns of trade combined with us having more control of immigration and making fewer payments to the EU. If we are effectively free of the CFP and the CAP as well that is actually a better effort than I feared. If I was an MP (heaven forbid) I would vote for this.
Nobody's read anything yet I take, but from what we think we know, sounds about right, if it can be voted through the HoC. Huge if.
I've taken the "Irish Free State" view for a while. Get out and go from there. I suspect, our relative trade percentage with the EU over the next years will decline (more than anything as a reflection of a shrinking world, where the rest of the world becomes ever more important, and services continue to supplant manufacturing), and a/the Customs Union with the EU becomes less attractive anyway.
It's not perfect, far far from it, but at this point it's not very disruptive and the salami slicing towards ever closer union (army and all now!), will stop, and time will be on the side of slowly separating, to a more Canada/USA style of relationship.
Incidentally, leaving aside Starmer's "6 tests", (which are designed to be failed of course if he wants, which he does) - isn't this deal pretty adjacent, (if not a bit better) to Labour's stated aim, as far as I can work it out) of a customs union but with no FOM?
The slightly grim reality is that this is no deal at all. There are about 495 pages of detail about us leaving the EU, most of which will involve us agreeing to pay for various things, and then a heads of agreement in a sort of skeletal outline about what the future relationship will be. In fact it would be better describing this as an agreement to agree which, as any lawyer knows, is not normally binding but in this case it might be because of the backstop.
If May can get this agreement through the Commons (and I still think she will) we are committed to several more years of arguing about what our relationship with the EU is going to be. It is not a cheering thought and means the uncertainty which has deferred investment into the UK economy may continue.
OTOH as a soft leaver I am quite content with "a" customs union and the minimum interference with patterns of trade combined with us having more control of immigration and making fewer payments to the EU. If we are effectively free of the CFP and the CAP as well that is actually a better effort than I feared. If I was an MP (heaven forbid) I would vote for this.
Nobody's read anything yet I take, but from what we think we know, sounds about right, if it can be voted through the HoC. Huge if.
I've taken the "Irish Free State" view for a while. Get out and go from there. I suspect, our relative trade percentage with the EU over the next years will decline (more than anything as a reflection of a shrinking world, where the rest of the world becomes ever more important, and services continue to supplant manufacturing), and a/the Customs Union with the EU becomes less attractive anyway.
It's not perfect, far far from it, but at this point it's not very disruptive and the salami slicing towards ever closer union (army and all now!), will stop, and time will be on the side of slowly separating, to a more Canada/USA style of relationship.
Incidentally, leaving aside Starmer's "6 tests", (which are designed to be failed of course if he wants, which he does) - isn't this deal pretty adjacent, (if not a bit better) to Labour's stated aim, as far as I can work it out) of a customs union but with no FOM?
Yes it is and I expect some Labour backbenchers who are hostile to Corbyn to acknowledge that. I don't particularly like the deal as it is being described but as even Montie has acknowledged at this stage the alternatives are all much worse.
I am a soft remainer but as an optimist I think we may be able win the peace after losing the war. Manufacturing in the UK where I spend my life needs some care and attention and it is not free trade agreements that we need but a government that levels the playing field. The UK market is a valuable place and if global industry has to treat the UK Government with some respect then it will be worth the fight.
An adjournment until tomorrow in the case of Peterborough's MP and brother.
A genuine question; if the court finds against the MP will she be able to vote on Brexit? I have it in my head that certain consequences would arise in those circumstances (as with Huhne) but can't remember if this is convention and what the timescales might be.
On past form, Sean T will have changed his mind by tomorrow.
It's when he has four different views on a topic over a few months, and then when one comes true a while later, he points at that post and says: "See, I was right!"
An adjournment until tomorrow in the case of Peterborough's MP and brother.
A genuine question; if the court finds against the MP will she be able to vote on Brexit? I have it in my head that certain consequences would arise in those circumstances (as with Huhne) but can't remember if this is convention and what the timescales might be.
Has to be a custodial sentence of more than a year. I don’t know how quickly they are ejected though.
An adjournment until tomorrow in the case of Peterborough's MP and brother.
A genuine question; if the court finds against the MP will she be able to vote on Brexit? I have it in my head that certain consequences would arise in those circumstances (as with Huhne) but can't remember if this is convention and what the timescales might be.
Has to be a custodial sentence of more than a year. I don’t know how quickly they are ejected though.
I am sure nothing could happen until any appeal period had expired.
I've taken the "Irish Free State" view for a while. Get out and go from there.
What? 50 years of poverty then join the EU as a deprived region?
Ok .....
I very much doubt that will be the case. Post Brexit UK 2020ish is not post civil war Ireland in 1923, as you well appreciate.
However, given Merkel, Macron, et al are all "let's have an EU army" to defend ourselves against "Russia, China, and even the USA", even if it were to be the case we were worse off for years to avoid that kind of utter lunacy, so be it. It wont of course but, Christ, Macron this week has the almost unique achievement of making one of Trump's tweets back look like real sense in comparison. Quelle horreur.
An adjournment until tomorrow in the case of Peterborough's MP and brother.
A genuine question; if the court finds against the MP will she be able to vote on Brexit? I have it in my head that certain consequences would arise in those circumstances (as with Huhne) but can't remember if this is convention and what the timescales might be.
If it is a sentence of more than a year.
However she could choose to go down the appellate route which means she could hang on until after the Brexit votes.
An adjournment until tomorrow in the case of Peterborough's MP and brother.
A genuine question; if the court finds against the MP will she be able to vote on Brexit? I have it in my head that certain consequences would arise in those circumstances (as with Huhne) but can't remember if this is convention and what the timescales might be.
If it is a sentence of more than a year.
However she could choose to go down the appellate route which means she could hang on.
Any news about FOM? Is it destined to be the elephant in the room and to die unnoticed?
Another small question … if the UK cannot exit the CU without permission, why would the EU let them?
From their point of view, it would be "cherry picking" if we were inside the CU and benefitting from access to the single market, without making payments or accepting FOM.
What gets me is that all this fuss is ONLY for the Withdrawal Agreement. After this, we still will not have any Trade Deals.
Yet we will be able to negotiate trade deals from a position of strength, without any ticking time bombs or cliff edges round the corner.
And in the meantime, our wilderness years, we will trade on full tariffs? Remember, the average trade agreement takes 5 to 10 years to sort out, sign, ratify and implement.
What gets me is that all this fuss is ONLY for the Withdrawal Agreement. After this, we still will not have any Trade Deals.
Yet we will be able to negotiate trade deals from a position of strength, without any ticking time bombs or cliff edges round the corner.
And in the meantime, our wilderness years, we will trade on full tariffs? Remember, the average trade agreement takes 5 to 10 years to sort out, sign, ratify and implement.
The big one is with the EU, and we’re already in full alignment.
Plenty of time to bake him some words of motherhood and apple pie reassurances he wants to hear.
David Mundell is a man of great principle and he will not want to enrage the Scottish fish people nor me, so I'd expect him to resign today. Preferably at 11.59pm tonight so the dead heat rules don't apply.
Any news about FOM? Is it destined to be the elephant in the room and to die unnoticed?
Another small question … if the UK cannot exit the CU without permission, why would the EU let them?
From their point of view, it would be "cherry picking" if we were inside the CU and benefitting from access to the single market, without making payments or accepting FOM.
Whoever wins, the margin will be small. A small win for Leave ... as we were. A small margin for Remain .. does anyone really believe it will be the last one? If so, a reward for dissembling and whinging by the elite.
I don't get the fuss about free trade deals. We have excellent trade deals right now through the EU. We know the EU negotiators are excellent. We know ours are crap.
Are our crap negotiators going to out there and get better deals for the UK only than the EU excellent negotiators got for the EU including the UK?
Yes. The USA is considerably bigger than the entire EU27 put together. Why is it we in the EU don't have a deal with them but Australia do?
Has it been confirmed that those two have resigned?
If so Rudd back in pronto is there a market?
I wonder. Tracey Crouch could just have had the most spectacularly successful resignation in history: forced the change in policy she objected to and then invited back into the government within days, and with a promotion to boot?
What gets me is that all this fuss is ONLY for the Withdrawal Agreement. After this, we still will not have any Trade Deals.
Yet we will be able to negotiate trade deals from a position of strength, without any ticking time bombs or cliff edges round the corner.
And in the meantime, our wilderness years, we will trade on full tariffs? Remember, the average trade agreement takes 5 to 10 years to sort out, sign, ratify and implement.
And will the EU, with its substantial balance of trade surplus want to trade on full tariffs with us?
An adjournment until tomorrow in the case of Peterborough's MP and brother.
A genuine question; if the court finds against the MP will she be able to vote on Brexit? I have it in my head that certain consequences would arise in those circumstances (as with Huhne) but can't remember if this is convention and what the timescales might be.
If it is a sentence of more than a year.
However she could choose to go down the appellate route which means she could hang on until after the Brexit votes.
And let's not lose sight of Thanet South while looking at Peterborough...
Any news about FOM? Is it destined to be the elephant in the room and to die unnoticed?
Another small question … if the UK cannot exit the CU without permission, why would the EU let them?
Well I suspect the devil is in the "panel of adjudication" , or whatever it's called, which, if we are led to believe correctly, has supposedly equal representation by UK and EU with an "independent element". Now that might yet be a terminal fly in the ointment, of course. Who or what is "independent". The Hague Court? The UN? Chief Justice of Japan? God knows at this point.
Also I think (possibly incorrectly of course!) that nothing so far that we think we know, rules out the UK totally or very largely controlling immigration. Now doubtless there would be some horse trading when the Free Trade Deal is being discussed, but Hague this morning (safe to say he probably has an inside line) was pretty clear about control over FOM, and over CFP, and CAP, meaning in fairness, the EU might be a tad wary of keeping the UK too snug in a customs union with that kind of leeway, or the likes or Orban, and others might start fingering the small print and stroking their chins.
Any news about FOM? Is it destined to be the elephant in the room and to die unnoticed?
Another small question … if the UK cannot exit the CU without permission, why would the EU let them?
From their point of view, it would be "cherry picking" if we were inside the CU and benefitting from access to the single market, without making payments or accepting FOM.
Any news about FOM? Is it destined to be the elephant in the room and to die unnoticed?
Another small question … if the UK cannot exit the CU without permission, why would the EU let them?
FOM is definitely ending. We will need visas or visa waivers and so will they.
Huge win for the Gov't if our friend through the looking glass is correct, @SeanT.
With the exception of NI, the UK will be outside the single market. so no fragmenting of the four freedoms. Only casualty is the much later idea that membership of the CU requires SM membership.
An adjournment until tomorrow in the case of Peterborough's MP and brother.
A genuine question; if the court finds against the MP will she be able to vote on Brexit? I have it in my head that certain consequences would arise in those circumstances (as with Huhne) but can't remember if this is convention and what the timescales might be.
If it is a sentence of more than a year.
However she could choose to go down the appellate route which means she could hang on.
Thanks!
Regardless of the niceties of the Recall of MPs Act, I think she would find it hard to vote on Brexit at all from inside HMP Peterborough.
I don't get the fuss about free trade deals. We have excellent trade deals right now through the EU. We know the EU negotiators are excellent. We know ours are crap.
Are our crap negotiators going to out there and get better deals for the UK only than the EU excellent negotiators got for the EU including the UK?
No, the UK is a much smaller entity than the EU. My point with Japan and before that South Korea was that deal was already done on terms that satisfied both sides. The new trade deals post Brexit is fantasy IMO and the much vaunted New Zealand trade deal that Brexiteers always advocated is a drop in the ocean given the size of their economy and population.
Yes, only the seventh or eighth largest economy on the planet. Tiny.
Try fifth of sixth largest surely? Larger than South Korea.
South Korea is another nation that has trade deals with Europe, China, USA, Japan, Asia, Australia etc - virtually the whole world. We don't.
In theory your arguments are correct, but the start point of the UK is very different to anywhere else in the world. We start off uniquely entangled from within the EU. This is fundamentally why leaving is difficult and not pain free.
While that is true, it doesn't mean the UK is somehow incapable of reaching similar arrangements.
Every journey begins with a small step. If leavers blow this step of actually leaving the EU we'll be tied in forever.
It also ignores the point that trade deals are NOT an unmitigated good.
This is why they need to crafted with a great deal of care, which takes a very long time. You are providing access to an internal market to a foreign power who would like noting better than a highly-asymmetric balance of trade in their favour.
Has it been confirmed that those two have resigned?
If so Rudd back in pronto is there a market?
I wonder. Tracey Crouch could just have had the most spectacularly successful resignation in history: forced the change in policy she objected to and then invited back into the government within days, and with a promotion to boot?
I doubt she'll be back today if McVey and or Mordaunt go. But it might be time for Rudd to return.
What gets me is that all this fuss is ONLY for the Withdrawal Agreement. After this, we still will not have any Trade Deals.
Yet we will be able to negotiate trade deals from a position of strength, without any ticking time bombs or cliff edges round the corner.
What is the end of the transition period if not a cliff edge?
The movement to the backstop with us in the customs agreement, if not a better trade deal. All of those Remainer wishes of backed up lorries have gone up in the air.
I don't get the fuss about free trade deals. We have excellent trade deals right now through the EU. We know the EU negotiators are excellent. We know ours are crap.
Are our crap negotiators going to out there and get better deals for the UK only than the EU excellent negotiators got for the EU including the UK?
No, the UK is a much smaller entity than the EU. My point with Japan and before that South Korea was that deal was already done on terms that satisfied both sides. The new trade deals post Brexit is fantasy IMO and the much vaunted New Zealand trade deal that Brexiteers always advocated is a drop in the ocean given the size of their economy and population.
Yes, only the seventh or eighth largest economy on the planet. Tiny.
Try fifth of sixth largest surely? Larger than South Korea.
South Korea is another nation that has trade deals with Europe, China, USA, Japan, Asia, Australia etc - virtually the whole world. We don't.
In theory your arguments are correct, but the start point of the UK is very different to anywhere else in the world. We start off uniquely entangled from within the EU. This is fundamentally why leaving is difficult and not pain free.
While that is true, it doesn't mean the UK is somehow incapable of reaching similar arrangements.
Every journey begins with a small step. If leavers blow this step of actually leaving the EU we'll be tied in forever.
It also ignores the point that trade deals are NOT an unmitigated good.
This is why they need to crafted with a great deal of care, which takes a very long time. You are providing access to an internal market to a foreign power who would like noting better than a highly-asymmetric balance of trade in their favour.
Probably best just to stay in ready made ones with the EU (For now) !
I don't get the fuss about free trade deals. We have excellent trade deals right now through the EU. We know the EU negotiators are excellent. We know ours are crap.
Are our crap negotiators going to out there and get better deals for the UK only than the EU excellent negotiators got for the EU including the UK?
No, the UK is a much smaller entity than the EU. My point with Japan and before that South Korea was that deal was already done on terms that satisfied both sides. The new trade deals post Brexit is fantasy IMO and the much vaunted New Zealand trade deal that Brexiteers always advocated is a drop in the ocean given the size of their economy and population.
Yes, only the seventh or eighth largest economy on the planet. Tiny.
Try fifth of sixth largest surely? Larger than South Korea.
South Korea is another nation that has trade deals with Europe, China, USA, Japan, Asia, Australia etc - virtually the whole world. We don't.
In theory your arguments are correct, but the start point of the UK is very different to anywhere else in the world. We start off uniquely entangled from within the EU. This is fundamentally why leaving is difficult and not pain free.
While that is true, it doesn't mean the UK is somehow incapable of reaching similar arrangements.
Every journey begins with a small step. If leavers blow this step of actually leaving the EU we'll be tied in forever.
It also ignores the point that trade deals are NOT an unmitigated good.
This is why they need to crafted with a great deal of care, which takes a very long time. You are providing access to an internal market to a foreign power who would like noting better than a highly-asymmetric balance of trade in their favour.
Probably best just to stay in ready made ones with the EU (For now) !
I don't get the fuss about free trade deals. We have excellent trade deals right now through the EU. We know the EU negotiators are excellent. We know ours are crap.
Are our crap negotiators going to out there and get better deals for the UK only than the EU excellent negotiators got for the EU including the UK?
No, the UK is a much smaller entity than the EU. My point with Japan and before that South Korea was that deal was already done on terms that satisfied both sides. The new trade deals post Brexit is fantasy IMO and the much vaunted New Zealand trade deal that Brexiteers always advocated is a drop in the ocean given the size of their economy and population.
Yes, only the seventh or eighth largest economy on the planet. Tiny.
Try fifth of sixth largest surely? Larger than South Korea.
South Korea is another nation that has trade deals with Europe, China, USA, Japan, Asia, Australia etc - virtually the whole world. We don't.
In theory your arguments are correct, but the start point of the UK is very different to anywhere else in the world. We start off uniquely entangled from within the EU. This is fundamentally why leaving is difficult and not pain free.
While that is true, it doesn't mean the UK is somehow incapable of reaching similar arrangements.
Every journey begins with a small step. If leavers blow this step of actually leaving the EU we'll be tied in forever.
It also ignores the point that trade deals are NOT an unmitigated good.
This is why they need to crafted with a great deal of care, which takes a very long time. You are providing access to an internal market to a foreign power who would like noting better than a highly-asymmetric balance of trade in their favour.
Has it been confirmed that those two have resigned?
If so Rudd back in pronto is there a market?
I wonder. Tracey Crouch could just have had the most spectacularly successful resignation in history: forced the change in policy she objected to and then invited back into the government within days, and with a promotion to boot?
I doubt she'll be back today if McVey and or Mordaunt go. But it might be time for Rudd to return.
Male/female quota thing, innit?
(Being serious, I agree - it's almost certainly too soon, though the fact that the government caved and so there's now no policy disagreement any more means it is at least theoretically possible).
What gets me is that all this fuss is ONLY for the Withdrawal Agreement. After this, we still will not have any Trade Deals.
Yet we will be able to negotiate trade deals from a position of strength, without any ticking time bombs or cliff edges round the corner.
And in the meantime, our wilderness years, we will trade on full tariffs? Remember, the average trade agreement takes 5 to 10 years to sort out, sign, ratify and implement.
And will the EU, with its substantial balance of trade surplus want to trade on full tariffs with us?
It does not matter what they want. They are stuck with whatever Trade Agreements are in force or WTO if none. That is how the system works.
So we "Leave" into a Transition Period that the ERG and like-eyed loons want as short as possible and definitely shorter than the 5 year minimum that Trade Deals take.
What do we do in that gap? Wait for Dr Fox to figure out what his job is?
Comments
They voted chuffing leave and then have the nerve to bemoan how badly it is all going.
Just f&ck off the lot of you, frankly. At least Plato had moral consistency.
And for your earlier point, I find it fascinating that the EU concede a technological solution is fine for the Irish Sea but not for the land border. Hopefully their position will evolve further...
I've taken the "Irish Free State" view for a while. Get out and go from there. I suspect, our relative trade percentage with the EU over the next years will decline (more than anything as a reflection of a shrinking world, where the rest of the world becomes ever more important, and services continue to supplant manufacturing), and a/the Customs Union with the EU becomes less attractive anyway.
It's not perfect, far far from it, but at this point it's not very disruptive and the salami slicing towards ever closer union (army and all now!), will stop, and time will be on the side of slowly separating, to a more Canada/USA style of relationship.
Incidentally, leaving aside Starmer's "6 tests", (which are designed to be failed of course if he wants, which he does) - isn't this deal pretty adjacent, (if not a bit better) to Labour's stated aim, as far as I can work it out) of a customs union but with no FOM?
Ok .....
Remember that bellend thought he could it all sorted.
https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/1062722201886044161?s=21
Another small question … if the UK cannot exit the CU without permission, why would the EU let them?
However, given Merkel, Macron, et al are all "let's have an EU army" to defend ourselves against "Russia, China, and even the USA", even if it were to be the case we were worse off for years to avoid that kind of utter lunacy, so be it. It wont of course but, Christ, Macron this week has the almost unique achievement of making one of Trump's tweets back look like real sense in comparison. Quelle horreur.
However she could choose to go down the appellate route which means she could hang on until after the Brexit votes.
Whoever wins, the margin will be small. A small win for Leave ... as we were. A small margin for Remain .. does anyone really believe it will be the last one? If so, a reward for dissembling and whinging by the elite.
Also I think (possibly incorrectly of course!) that nothing so far that we think we know, rules out the UK totally or very largely controlling immigration. Now doubtless there would be some horse trading when the Free Trade Deal is being discussed, but Hague this morning (safe to say he probably has an inside line) was pretty clear about control over FOM, and over CFP, and CAP, meaning in fairness, the EU might be a tad wary of keeping the UK too snug in a customs union with that kind of leeway, or the likes or Orban, and others might start fingering the small print and stroking their chins.
It's not something I like to mention.
Oh, I gather from noises off that May has decided to sell out the entire Scottish fishing industry for some bonus euro-lols.
Oh Theresa.
"Regardless of the niceties of the Recall of MPs Act, I think she would find it hard to vote on Brexit at all from inside HMP Peterborough."
And she might be a little busy, those rocks don't break themselves. Although I might be out-of-date on current prison practice.
This is why they need to crafted with a great deal of care, which takes a very long time. You are providing access to an internal market to a foreign power who would like noting better than a highly-asymmetric balance of trade in their favour.
Any wiggle from that is both a humiliating climb down for Mundell/Davidson and a savage betrayal of Fraserburgh fishermen.
Tough on the causes of Scottish fish
(Being serious, I agree - it's almost certainly too soon, though the fact that the government caved and so there's now no policy disagreement any more means it is at least theoretically possible).
So we "Leave" into a Transition Period that the ERG and like-eyed loons want as short as possible and definitely shorter than the 5 year minimum that Trade Deals take.
What do we do in that gap? Wait for Dr Fox to figure out what his job is?
They were using it as a smokescreen whilst they sneakily dismantled the UK fishing industry without her noticing.
Clever.